Talk Elections

Link (http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/).

Trump 51%
Clinton 44%

LOL trash

51-44 Trump

http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780

J U N K

U

N

K

:o

lol, k

Boom!

The classic shock poll

Clinton led 46-44 in their last poll three weeks ago.

This poll probably isn't true but Trump definitely has surged over the last week

Sure.....

The poll itself could well be trash but the pollster certainly isn't in general.

Hmm, this is getting really bad for her by the day ...

Plausible, given the bad Black turnout so far.

emails! emails! emails! emails!!

here's to hoping that the last week was the Brexit's Jo Cox moment.

here's a question though - why would the race change NINE POINTS in one week?

lol, sure

Sry, I was still posting and didn't see it and some others already posted too.

If they are merged your thread will be first then.

Yeah I don't really care but duplicate threads are just a pet peeve.

And people called me stupid for saying NC was in the bag for Trump. This is going to be a very rough four years.

Nope. 

Difference is that the emails are tied to Clinton, while Jo Cox's murder was a tragic event committed by someone with a history of mental illness that was tied opportunistically to the leave camp with no links or connections whatsoever

It is stupid to say NC is in the bag for Trump. Every poll except Remington has Clinton leading.

This is happening...

The e-mails are NOT tied to Clinton. They are her aide's and her husband's. That's whole BS of it all.

And the bad news keeps rolling....

Also SUSA isn't in general a bad pollster, this does seem a bit off and makes me wonder if their LV screens are filtering out Dem voters on the "enthusiasm gap".

I still have NC as a tossup (Trump) on the prediction thread, still see this as closer to a 2 point race either way.

I'm assuming their Senate numbers will post tomorrow?

Even GOP internals still have Trump losing here...

I'm beginning to squirm.

well, this isn't true obviously bbbbut TRUMP TRAIN COMING prepare yourself

Until we get other polling to confirm this is an outlier and should be treated as such

Obamacare premium hikes affecting the middle class voters weigh more on their moods and pockets than Trumps groping it seems.

This and the email story (if it is not going away in the news in the next days) could be the kiss of death for her ...

538 had them as an "A" rated and added +2 to Trump (C+2 to Tie) on their last poll.  So this is going to go into the 538 model as T+9???

No. Only "a former anonynomous FBI agent and Top GOP pollster"... ::)

Ah, here's probably a major source of the disagreement:


Did they not poll Unaffiliateds or something?

I know you got a boner from the thought, but no.

Obvious outlier, still bad news though.

let's find out how cheap the votes of white, educated NC republican women are.

I am not sure which of us is enjoing it more though >:(


They always has strange crosstabs though...

Oh yes of course!

To the average voter, the most important issue facing our country are EMAILS!!!!!

Hopefully that will not be the case in one week.

If that's true, then why did the FBI need to get a new warrant to look at them?  They already had a warrant for Wiener/Huma emails.

Of course there are emails between Huma and Hillary among the 650,000.  Naturally those could be relevant to the previous investigation.

Hmmm.... that's interesting and throws a giant monkeywrench into the discussion and mix.

What really makes this poll bad is that Tender believes it.

I pmd likely voter to merge them.

I'd do it myself but some a$$holes decided to demod me ...

Someone just shoot me.

LOL

There are many stupid things being said these days by pro H crowd but this one should be top of the list!

Embrace! Choo choo train coming!

WOW.

Dems, take comfort from this:

http://abc11.com/archive/6380065/

Classic Atlas overreaction to an outlier.  It reads like a book.  The Bedwetter feakout, the republicans rejoice, while tender does his I'm non partisan concern trolling. 

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/793547394503806976

PPP implying this is junk

Also we should harken back to 2008 when Survey USA had McCain up 20 here as well.

looool i forgot this happened

I think SurveyUSA is generally a good pollster, but sometimes they just are completely unable to poll certain states. Think Minnesota, Kentucky, and a few others.

Also, does anyone have the crosstabs? I can't wait to laugh.

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

I agree, lets not forget the McCain +20 in 08 in NC

This is the one time in 10 polls where the junky cross tabs create the outlier

Did they really ?
+20 ..... LMAO.
That's nuts.
Makes me feel better than this is an (way-out in left field) outlier.
Still bad news though, as this state will more than likely be close to even. But hopefully Clinton can still carry it.

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2016/11/01/16183925/261876-WRAL_News_poll_Nov._1_2016_.pdf

Early voters (40%)
Clinton 52
Trump 46

Not voted yet (60%)
Clinton 38
Trump 54

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

White (72%)
Clinton 33
Trump 62

Republicans (33%)
Clinton 5
Trump 90

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

Unaffiliated (20%)
Clinton 39
Trump 51

Lmao!

I think I found your problem...

...in a poll taken at the height of his convention bounce. They had him up 1 in the poll taken at this same point eight years ago.

CONFIRMED JUNK POLL!!!

()

You're insane if you think McCain was ever up 20, convention bounce or not...

it is correct for 538's model to do that.

but that rep-consolidation combined with that dem disarray sounds junky.

It's over. Congratulations Pepe.

Junk poll, but ugh, I guess NC is pretty much a straight tossup right now?

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%

Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.

it's all about republican white women.

The point is that it is hardly an apples to apples comparison.

1) Given that McCain was leading a fair share of national polls during his convention bounce, it would hardly be unreasonable to believe he was leading North Carolina by high single digits at the time, which is not as bad as the 21 point error the poster was implying SurveyUSA committed.
2) Of course a poll taken two months before Election Day will be less accurate than one one week before. SurveyUSA's poll at this point eight years ago showed McCain up by one, which is a two point error.

Trump's path to 270 starts to look somewhat more plausible if he can hold on to North Carolina. 

Eh, not quite.

These are all great news for Donald, but it's easy to forget he needs either CO or PA to put the cherry on top of any feasible EC paths. It all comes down to CO or PA, and nothing has changed in his chances in either of these. They are both pretty much safe D at this point, at the very least lean D.

As did Liam Donovan, a longtime GOP operative

Well, that's why I said "somewhat".

So did Nate Silver about Trump in the primary. He dismissed all the polls as a trash (as Dems did this week, actually) :P

He's getting 14% of the black vote.

()

We've had this urban/suburban/rural crosstab discussion before.  Some of us have come to the conclusion that the categories are meaningless.  It depends what SUSA defines as urban.  There appears to be no standard for it among pollsters.  If it's any big city or any urbanized area as defined by Census, you're talking about putting all of Charlotte, including suburban parts, into it.   If it is self-reported, then nobody knows what urban truly means.

Tbf, I'm pretty sure NC has consistently been his best state for that. But I don't think he'll get more than 10% in the end.

Trashing 1 poll methodology vs trashing all polls and building a model that used endorsements to predict the primary winner are not the same thing.

I never trust Survey USA for anything, but I'm about to get a little too excited based on D reaction. The same thing with 'not picking up D enthusiasm' and missing voters happened in 2014. Please please please let that be the best unskew that you can come up with. But I know you can do better since you are actually ahead.

Most polls show him getting 1 or 0 points here in NC.

It is an outlier. It happens. But it doesn't mean that you completely dismiss it. Deal with it and average it. BTH, do you think that Sienna/Upshot poll could be an outllier?


ABC, IBD and SUSA, all A pollsters has been trashed, when they showed... guess what :)

And even Monmouth↓↓↓

To be fair, SUSA's crosstabs are always wacky, but the topline in this one is certainly an outlier.

 

Even if Trump is currently leading here, this poll is definitely an outlier.

I've actually never thought of it that way. Seems like a particularly cogent point in sprawly Sun Belt cities

No. No. No f**king way.

Pretty much this.... I have been saying for months that NC will likely go down to the wire, and although almost all recent polls have shown a Clinton lead, that late-breakers in a Southern State tend to go Republican by default, hence my Tossup (Trump) prediction despite the opinions of many others on the forum.

Clearly a junk poll, especially when looking at the wacky cross-tabs.... I'll still stand by the EV numbers in NC that show both positives and negatives for Clinton and continue to see NC to be a pure toss-up state, that although it likely won't keep us up on Election Night, could easily swing either way, regardless of any potential cracks in the Firewall in a Wisconsin or New Hampshire.

When were the two comparison polls taken? I'm still not convinced there hasn't been significant damage done with the faked email scandal.

Given we were seeing a Trump comeback prior to the FBI reopening the investigation and the fact SUSA is an A-rated pollster, I'm inclined to accept this result.

Or it's an outlier that you are now having to pin your hopes on.  Either could be true.

Hammy--- although I was not the OP, I am also not convinced that the faked email scandal has impact the national poll numbers.

I suspect that what we are seeing the inevitable return of Republican base, many of whom were #NeverTrump people, combined with Republican leaning Indies returning to their ancestral voting patterns.

The point that the OP was making is that the SUSA crosstabs don't make any sense compared to more accurate data from Upshot/Sienna that still shows NC as close, which jives with what we are seeing with EV in NC, as well as other recent polling of the state. :)

I'll let HillofNight or Heatcharger jump in, and hopefully my statements were not misinterpreted to indicate that the email deal is changing the state of the race in NC, which is certainly not the point I was trying to make.

I've always believed that despite somewhat favorable demographic changes in NC for Dems, that this state would go down to the wire on Election Day, and have been considerably less optimistic of this being a Romney flip state than many others on Atlas.

No, I don't believe so. Outside of a D+6 result by Marist last week, all recent polls had her in the low single digits in North Carolina. You're now starting to see the FBI results roll in, on top of the tepid surge we were already seeing prior to it. I'll concede it may be a few points too Republican, but I can definitely see anything from R+3 to R+5 at right now there.

Or it's just an outlier that you are trying to make excuses for.

Your inability to accept reality is the issue, nothing with regards to myself. As I pointed out, with these things called facts, she was already dropping in North Carolina prior to the Email announcement. This Trump surge is supported by the fact he is pulling ahead in Florida again for example, among other data-points. When multiple A-rated pollsters keep showing your sacred cow isn't that sacred, it becomes a matter of you cherry picking rather than every poll that disagrees with your distorted concept of reality being an outlier.

it's over folks
say hi to your next president

Trump was never going to lose North Carolina, it's never been part of the "firewall".

Wow.

Which one is that??? ;)

Holy. Such a large swing, it might be one of those polls when there's a 20% chance that it is out of the m.o.e.

Lotta reasons to not worry about this one. SUSA is a great pollster, but the crosstabs are too far off, especially on early voters. Throw it in, mix 'em up. NC will be close, that's a reality. Know that this poll exists and keep watching the numbers.

IDK, this is definitely is an outlier, but one should generally not look too much into crosstabs.

Why? Because it is a lot of them: youngs, older, liberals, conservatives, black, white, blue, red, male, female,  rural, suburban, urban, educated, non-educated, low-income, middle, early voting etc, etc. Each group is about 100-400 in an average poll, which gives 5-10 MOE, and ~10-20 MOE of difference. But that sort of cancels out each other (for example, Trump might do to good among EV, but too bad among non-EV). At least in theory. Undersampled groups might though cause bigger errors (but EV in this particular poll wasn't undersampled, I guess).

That basically means, that you always find a odd-looking subsample. By chance. Always. I never look at subsamples < 400. That's why I don't like Monmouth (they totally has just ~400 LV); they are good on average, but pretty often give weird swings.

But OK, you don't like early voters, right?
Totally EV = 659*40% = 264
Then Hillary's and Trump's MOE would be ~ 6.04
The MOE of difference               would be ~11.95

So does this result of EV look so strange, given those MOE?

Both Nates wrote about "how to read polls". Atlas should read it ::)

“Registered Democrats are 3.4 percent behind their same-day totals from 2012, while registered Republicans are ahead of their same-day totals at 6.2 percent and registered unaffiliated voters continue to move ahead of their same-day totals, at 37.7 percent.”

“While white voters are 15 percent ahead of their same-day totals from 2012, black voters continue to lag their 2012 same-day totals, down 16 percent.”

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

The caveat for Trump is that while EV is way better for him than Romney, he's not nearly as popular as Romney was. (But again, Trump's saving grace is that he's running against someone equally as unpopular).

NC will be close, but I think Trump will carry it.

For the record I think Trump will carry OH and FL comfortably by 3-5% each. Strange how NC is likely to vote to the left of those states. Either way we'll know how the election is shaping up pretty early since NC is one of the first to vote.

I get why you prefer to respond to many of the trolls around here this way. It really doesn't give people looking to have a real convo much interest in engaging you deeply, though.

I get what you're at, but sometimes an outlier is just that. This just isn't close to anything SUSA or anyone else reputable has ever found in NC. That probably means that at least one thing (and probably more) is throwing off the sample a lot. Like I said, know it exists, place it where you want. This one alone, without at least one corresponding poll, looks like a heavy outlier. I don't tend to give much weight to heavy outliers. If more polls come in to show this might be on track, I'll give it another look over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7gIpuIVE3k

Yikes, this thread might be just as bad as this poll. When it's LBP who's actually being the most reasonable one in the entire thread I suggest people just calm down.

^ This exactly.

Trump EV numbers are very good in NC, but I don't think they will hold. He might still win if tightening continues, but it would be by 2-3 points, not 7

If you believe this poll then you are stupid.

This....

Exactly what I have been saying for months, even with the inevitable roller-coaster ride that is Atlas every four years, NC will not be a +4/5 D/R state in 2016 and go all the way to the wire until late in the evening...

I'm not going to dismiss the poll out of hand, but perhaps we could wait until we get some more data out of there before panicking?

This poll implies that, at the moment it was taken, Trump was leading in NC. The same can be said about that D+8 W&M poll from FL -- at the moment it was conducted, Clinton was ahead. The margin itself is immaterial and largely meaningless.

  SUSA crosstabs often are interesting and not what we'd expect.

SurveyUSA was closer to the final outcome than PPP.

Ha, good catch. Especially that PPP tweet...