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Title: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 04, 2016, 10:39:23 AM https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/794562356864913408
Trump 44 Clinton 41 Johnson 5 Stein 4 Unsure 5 ***modified from earlier, they fixed the tweet. Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Person Man on November 04, 2016, 10:40:10 AM That's probably right. Maybe it will be closer but its Trump's to lose.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: F_S_USATN on November 04, 2016, 10:40:21 AM http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
IOWA TOPLINE: Trump 44% Clinton 41% Johnson 5% Stein 4% Unsure 5% @HillaryClinton: +35/-63 (-28) @realDonaldTrump: +47/-51 (-4) Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Devout Centrist on November 04, 2016, 10:40:53 AM Iowa will be close.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2016, 10:41:52 AM The senate numbers look kind of ridiculous though.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on November 04, 2016, 10:43:07 AM Ugh, we're not going to win this if we only win Iowa by 3.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: henster on November 04, 2016, 10:44:10 AM Emerson is landlines only.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: BoAtlantis on November 04, 2016, 10:44:13 AM I wonder if Selzer is going to do a final poll of IA. They're probably going to show something similar anyway but I would like to see their result.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 04, 2016, 10:44:15 AM I think Emerson has actually managed to undersell Trump a bit here. He probably is up 2 or so, so Emerson should be showing T+5.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Person Man on November 04, 2016, 10:45:48 AM I think Emerson has actually managed to undersell Trump a bit here. He probably is up 2 or so, so Emerson should be showing T+5. And if this is the truth, Trump will do about as well as Bush did here in 2004. Same with Ohio. Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Absolution9 on November 04, 2016, 10:51:55 AM I think Emerson has actually managed to undersell Trump a bit here. He probably is up 2 or so, so Emerson should be showing T+5. And if this is the truth, Trump will do about as well as Bush did here in 2004. Same with Ohio. PA is looking similar as well (narrow 2.5 point loss). Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 04, 2016, 10:54:22 AM Emerson rule: IA is tied.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: F_S_USATN on November 04, 2016, 10:56:24 AM IA will be within a point either way
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 11:04:01 AM Despite being behind overall, Clinton continues to dominate the early voting:
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 34 Stein - 4 Johnson - 3 SENATE (which overall is 60-32) early votes: Grassley - 48 Judge - 45 Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 11:07:37 AM I think these early voting numbers may explain why Hillary visiting Iowa in the final week, because her campaign knows that not only does she currently have a big EV lead, but that the remaining electorate REALLY dislikes her, so no need to get them worked up...
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: StatesPoll on November 04, 2016, 11:17:01 AM https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/794562356864913408 Trump 44 Clinton 41 Johnson 5 Stein 4 Unsure 5 ***modified from earlier, they fixed the tweet. Red Avatars before make fun of Emerson IA Poll, would you do it at least after read the crosstabs? 1. Emerson is a landline pollster blah blah blah wrong. read the page 6 http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf Landline Only 66 LV(Valid percent 9.6%) Cellphone only 115 LV(Valid percent 16.8%) Both 506 LV (Valid percent 73.6%) 2. skewed for TRUMP? 2012 Ballot Obama 52%, Romney 46% exactly same as 2012 Iowa results Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: dspNY on November 04, 2016, 11:19:39 AM Despite being behind overall, Clinton continues to dominate the early voting: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 34 Stein - 4 Johnson - 3 SENATE (which overall is 60-32) early votes: Grassley - 48 Judge - 45 If Clinton actually has a 23 point early vote lead, she'll win the state (I don't think she leads by 23 according to the party ID stats unless Trump is hemorrhaging R's who didn't caucus for him) Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: F_S_USATN on November 04, 2016, 11:20:55 AM Quote StatesPoll Actually its Trump +2.7 Am i doing it right? Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: StatesPoll on November 04, 2016, 11:22:07 AM Quote StatesPoll Actually its Trump +2.7 Am i doing it right? yes sure. I'm always pro-demicals ;) Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Dr. Arch on November 04, 2016, 11:27:15 AM Friends, this is Emerson showing Trump with only +3.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Xing on November 04, 2016, 11:38:03 AM I really hope we got a good pollster to poll Iowa before the election. The lack of Iowa polls has been very annoying, and while I could buy Trump being narrowly ahead here, I'd rather not be too quick to trust Emerson.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2016, 11:44:20 AM Wait, only Trumpy by 3 if none of the hip young whippersnappers that live along the Mighty Miss get a ring?
SWEET SASSY MOLLASEY! I am right AGAIN! Clinton wins here in a squeaker! Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2016, 11:44:55 AM I really hope we got a good pollster to poll Iowa before the election. The lack of Iowa polls has been very annoying, and while I could buy Trump being narrowly ahead here, I'd rather not be too quick to trust Emerson. I would be shocked if we don't get a Selzer poll tomorrow night. Title: IA: Emerson College: Trump with Slight Lead in Iowa Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 04, 2016, 11:48:37 AM New Poll: Iowa President by Emerson College on 2016-11-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920161103223)
Summary: D: 41%, R: 44%, U: 5% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf) Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Rand on November 04, 2016, 01:30:18 PM Ugh, we're not going to win this Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Hammy on November 04, 2016, 01:42:57 PM Despite being Emerson it backs up the last year or so of polling showing R+2-R+5 range.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Devils30 on November 04, 2016, 10:03:43 PM Iowa usually votes very similarly to Wisconsin. There has been almost no polling here for some reason but I would not be totally shocked if Hillary pulled it out Tuesday.
Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2016, 03:01:26 AM This is actually a decent poll for Hillary, since there's no way Grassley is ahead by 30 and there's no way Trump has that high of a favorability score.
I'm actually a bit more optimistic about IA than OH at this point. Title: Re: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2016, 03:03:29 AM This is actually a decent poll for Hillary, since there's no way Grassley is ahead by 30 and there's no way Trump has that high of a favorability score. I'm actually a bit more optimistic about IA than OH at this point. I'm quite bullish about both, I keep trying to talk myself out of it... but nah. |