Talk Elections

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3
Trump - 46
Clinton - 46

time for panic again :D

Before everyone wets themselves, this is an (R). They had Clinton+2 in late September. Same kind of small slide, then, that everyone else showed from Comey.

Considering that this is Harper, I'm not too worried.

No need for panic. Hillary will take PA.

interesting

B- according to 538 with a tiny pro-D-house effect.

So Clinton by 10.  NOICE!!!

This ain't over yet!

From wikipedia IIRC:
Harper Polling correctly polled the 2013 Senate special election in Massachusetts. Harper predicted the outcome of the New Jersey Senate special election to the exact margin of 11%. [7]

Harper has also polled the 2014 Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor race and the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.[8][9] Harper was the only Pennsylvania pollster to predict the size of Tom Wolf's landslide Democratic primary victory for Governor. [10]

SENATE: McGinty - 44, Toomey - 44

Even if Clinton wins it, I think it's possible that PA will be more Republican the nation as a whole for the first time since... ?

"B-" pollster.

They had Clinton +2 SEP. 21-22.


Nov 2-3:

Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump 46  (+3)
Johnson 2  (-6)  


Johnson is collapsing towards Trump. Plausible.

So essentially what you're saying is they'd be right if this wasn't a presidential year.

Junk Polls come out at... daytime?

all depends on philly.

if philly and "the collar" get out the vote, western PA isn't a factor anymore.

since the PA subs have been quite pro-obama in 2012, i can't see them being more pro-trumo in 2016.

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39

What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

Bahahaha these are AMAZING.

It is so good, that they earned "B-" :P

You don't need to keep telling us how bad Nate Silver has been this cycle.

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

It sounds like, to me, anything below a B+ rating is dogsh**t, considering Gravis and this are both rated B.

Clinton will win PA by +2.

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

But I mean, this is all MOE movement...they only had HRC up by 2 in Sept when she was up by 8-10, so this trendline isn't surprising.

May that gives you an inkling about how the undecideds may split.

SAD!

It's obvious that the "extremely likely" voters are, well, more likely to vote than the other two categories.  But it's ridiculous to think that nobody in the lower categories will vote.  Perhaps they should weight the results by likelihood, e.g. 1.0 for extremely likely, 0.7 for very likely, 0.3 for somewhat likely, etc.  (Don't quibble about the specific weights; I just picked them for example purposes.)

Probably, but a lot of Red hacks seems enjoing dogsh*t, when it shows a good numbers. Wounder why ::)

Trash poll. Please next.

Gotcha. What are the total number of people in each of those subsamples?

That is insane. What kind of crap are they trying to pull ?

Junk Republcan pollsters are popping up like weeds this election cycle

The purpose is for when we lose, Trump can call it rigged and use the rationale that all the polls were calling it for us last week. Highly respected Gravis. Harper - a firm who called it perfectly for a Democrat in 2014. Strategic Vision 3200. Even the up-and-coming Wainwright Analytics had us closing in in Oregon. Pick your poison. They all were calling it for us. #Rigged #Revolution

lol

Depends on Philly turnout but I agree it could happen. The demographics are very favorable to Trump.

AHahahaahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahhaahahahahahahahahaah.

It DOES sound reasonble and this strategi MIGHT come from Trump. #MakePollsRiggedAgain

lol you idiots believing that Pennsylvania will have an R PVI. This is too good.

It might be a bit favourable to Trump but I wouldn't say it is rubbish. Clinton was 3 up in PA coming into today according to RCP and the previous poll was taken just before the debate when Trump was strongest.

was just a matter of time

http://www.latlmes.com/nation/breaking-pa-poll-trump-47-hillary-42-1

Bless you!

LOL

It is big!

"A-" pollster Trump+5. Trump is taking more votes from Johnson and undecided.

Hey you can cling to PeePeePee and we'll stick to Harper. Who knows really. P.A. is a tossup now but trending trump.

I laughed out loud for two minutes straight at this post. LittleBigGullible is going to get a shock on Tuesday...

PPP 2012 final poll: Obama +6
2012 Actual Result: Obama +5.4

Harper didn't open until after the 2012 election but has been singularly terrible in almost every race they have polled, including showing a tied race in Michigan in 2014.

Click the link bro.

Ratings don't mean anything anymore.

Eh.. what?

I'll give you a change to explain before judging you :-\

If you're talking about the LA Times, that link above is a joke; they have no such poll that shows T+5.

Clinton will win PA by 6 points

It will be close, likely closer then 2012, but still a Clinton win.

     I more or less agree with this. PA has the potential to be quite close, but I don't quite buy a tie.

It is closer, but Hillary has the Phila suburbs.  She takes it, though we might not know until late. 

But she doesn't have Pittsburgh.
That city used to be a Dem stronghold. It's Trump country now.

Trump isn't winning Pittsburgh. I have family there, and according to them almost nobody there likes him.

Pennsylvania has no early voting, so this may be significant.

While this likely won't have any bearing on the end result, it explains why they always have such a problem with excessive wait times.

ofc hillary has pittsburgh...just not the surroundings.

BOOM

Freedom poll!

Bad!