Talk Elections

Am I the only one for whom it boggles the mind that Iowa is still a viable option for the Democrats?

It seems like every other state like Iowa is trending Republican or already is solidly Republican, yet not only does rural Iowa (especially eastern) still vote for Democrats by decent margins, but it isn't really trending that quickly.

Why hasn't Iowa jumped ship, or at least moved a little right of the national center?  Even the eastern areas that bare resemblence to Nebraska and Kansas are relatively competitive.

Short answer is that there is no state like Iowa.
A slightly longer answer would be that small town voters in Iowa don't like Corperate America but don't like Liberal Elitists either. In other word's they are extremely bloody minded.
Another answer would be that Iowa is a more complex state than people realise or like to think; everything from ultra socially conservative Dutch farmers in northwest Iowa to extremely blue collar river towns on the Mississippi.
Perhaps the fact that over a long period of time, the Republicans have actually *lost* a lot of ground in rural Iowa might be worth noting.
Maybe the farm crisis still casts a long, long shadow.
Perhaps a mixture of all of them.

Iowa caucuses might help. Kerry was up 10 points for a while until Bush's negative campaign took him down.

they're anti-incumbent because their anti-politician, basically; this HURT Gore in 2000, and Bush in 2004.

Parts of Wisconsin are quite like Iowa, and quite as Democratic too.
I'm really more baffled at the Dems' competitiveness in Arkansas. Clinton's shadow must still be huge.
29% of self-described White Evangelical or Born-Again Christians in Arkansas voted for John Kerry. That's twice as high as just about anywhere else.
The Whitest county in Arkansas is in the Northeastern part of the state, very close to the Black Belt. Counties like that, in the South, are usually rock-solid GOP. This one voted narrowly for Kerry.

There is still a strong base of Democrat support in Southern Arkansas (and to a lesser extent Northeastern Arkansas), where they're white, in many case evangelical and still vote Democrat.

It's where Clinton was from and it was his base area.

Given the fact that the Little Rock metropolitan area splits roughly 50%-50% and CD3 (Northwest Arkansas) is extremely GOP and tends to vote 65%-35%, if the Democrats pull 55%-60% in the rest of the state, they can typically win by a close margin.

It's been harder and harder in recent years, but it is certainly less impossible than most everything else in the South nowadays.

I remember someone on these boards said that Iowa has a lot of Unionized Farmers, which is a rare thing but would explain the state's leftward tendencies.

Does anyone know why Sioux County, Iowa is always extremely Republican in presidential elections? On the maps it always stands out from its surrounding area, which is also GOP territory but not as strongly. It has voted 70%+ GOP in every election since 1952! Senator PBrunsell? There must be something about Sioux County that sets it apart.

Sioux County is extremely Dutch

Okay but are they Amish or something? You're probably right because there was a county in Nebraska (Saline I think) that always voted Democrat, even in Republican landslides, and when I looked it up I found that it had a large Hungarian population. I guess different European ethnicities vote different ways in the midwest.

So why did Gore win Iowa in 2000 (albeit barely) and Bush win Iowa in 2004 (albeit barely)?

Dutch immigrants are largely very conservative.  This is also reflected in places like Holland County, Michigan.

I live kind of close to there. The answer is they are not Amish, but they mostly belong to ultra-conservative Calvinist sects. That place is kind of like another world. Pretty much all businesses closed on Sundays. Not a single bar or liquor store in the entire county. Much similar to the ultra-conservative parts of the Netherlands (yes, they exist) that vote for theocratic parties.

As for the original post, it's basically comes down to the eastern part of the state still being populist and voting on economics like Northeastern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin, and that unlike the states to its west, the larger cities are still fairly liberal. They're certainly not Minneapolis or Madison (except Iowa City of course), but definately far to the left of Omaha, Wichita or Sioux Falls.

Iowa is a strange micture of old and new politics. You have your big Democratic towns (Davenport, Iowa City, Des Moines) and your big Republican towns (Sioux City, Bettendorf). Couple these with Conservative small towns (West Branch) and liberal small towns (Clinton) and you have a strange state for the politicians.

The county with Sioux City in it only voted 51-49 Bush.  Is the city of Sioux City itself Democratic?

I think Bush might've really narrowly won it, I know he did in 2000, but it is far more Democratic than its surroundings, due to being fairly blue collar. I know a couple people from there (I don't really go there, but I do meet them when I'm in Sioux Falls from time to time) and from what I've gathered they consider themselves to basically be a different state from Sioux county and the rest of Northwest Iowa.

Thanks BRTD, I never would have been able to find out that info :)

I once had neighbors from Iowa. They were the first Lutherans I ever met.

I'm Lutheran and so are about 40% of the people I know. I'm kind of suprised whenever people outside the Midwest think Lutherans are pretty rare, I keep forgetting that almost all of us in the US are here.

Another thing is that plenty of people outside the Midwest think all Lutherans are ultra-conservative, which is largely true outside of the Midwest, Scandinavia and parts of Germany, but it's definately not true of the majority.

They were the first Lutherans that I knew about, I might have known others. And, as a Catholic, most Protestant sects are not that different from one another. I just thought Lutherans were a mainstream branch of Protestantism.

By the way I felt the same way growing up, I used to think we were a majority Catholic country, because there are so many around here. And I knew a lot of Jewish kids, I went to two Bar Mitzvahs.

well there's different Lutheran churches. The ELCA, the largest and mine is a pretty standard mainstream Protestant denomination. The Missouri Synod is much more conservative. And the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod is a hardcore fundamentalist one that puts the Southern Baptists to shame. There's also a few small splinter groups that might as well be cults.

Iowa is the perfect example of a balanced state.  Democrats and Republicans seem to work very well together here.  Harkin and Grassley make a good combo in the Senate.  I don't know too much about Vilsack, but it seems Iowans like him.  Iowa may always remain a swing state in presidential elections though.