Title: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: heatcharger on November 07, 2016, 08:03:03 AM http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html?referer=https://t.co/b6K2oygAcz
Clinton 44% Trump 44% Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Buzz on November 07, 2016, 08:04:58 AM this is going to be the closest state! Trump barley wins in the end.
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: BlueSwan on November 07, 2016, 08:07:10 AM Pretty bad. Wasn't their last one Clinton +7?
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 08:07:45 AM Told you.
Someone who wants to complain about 538's "stupid" trend lines? ::) Pretty bad. Wasn't their last one Clinton +7? It was. Tightening :) Quote Massive attrition in Johnson support. He's down to 3% (2% with early voters). Was 8% in Oct., 11% in Sept) Shy Trumpistas coming homeBut not all of them :) Quote Sort of an interesting turn: 6 percent of early voters still said they didn't know/offered no opinion of their vote in presidential race. Quote And, no, there's no reason to assume that's the shy Trump voter. If anything, disproportionately D and black, though obviously small sample. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Fusionmunster on November 07, 2016, 08:13:00 AM This is more in line with reality.
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: HillOfANight on November 07, 2016, 08:19:32 AM I thought it would be tight. The difference between this poll and others was the white margin, and now it's in line with other polls.
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 08:29:13 AM Crosstabs from Sienna:
http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf Republican retain control 47% Democrats take control 45% Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 09:14:34 AM Educated white women ----> Trump :)
() Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Dr. Arch on November 07, 2016, 09:34:27 AM Educated white women ----> Trump :) () That graph just says White. It doesn't break down by education and gender together. Clinton is, in fact, winning the educated voters. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 09:45:05 AM It was not what I said.
Educated white women --coming home--> Trump And they are probably are coming from Johnson. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Dr. Arch on November 07, 2016, 09:46:55 AM It was not what I said. Educated white women --coming home--> Trump ... Let me try this again. Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters. You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 07, 2016, 09:57:25 AM As much as I approve of Nate Cohn's valiant attempts to try to build a model based on actual turnout data, rather than polls, this poll exemplifies why that is a flawed project. There's no reason to believe that the early vote shifted to Trump over the past two weeks...
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 10:08:00 AM It was not what I said. Educated white women --coming home--> Trump ... Let me try this again. Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters. You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that. So compared to Sept Trump share grew by +6 white +3 black (but blacks are just 22% of voters) -1 men +8 women +2 no college +8 college or more. And you still think that could happen without educated women coming home? Yeah, teoretically it could be some weird flows that could explain it like Trump losing among no-col men, but gaining among non-col women and col-men ::) Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2016, 10:17:18 AM It was not what I said. Educated white women --coming home--> Trump ... Let me try this again. Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters. You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that. I guess we can put to rest that Sweden and other countries like it have the best education system in the world! Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: dspNY on November 07, 2016, 10:34:55 AM This makes sense in an election where the Democrat wins nationally by 3-5 points
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Gustaf on November 07, 2016, 10:38:21 AM It was not what I said. Educated white women --coming home--> Trump ... Let me try this again. Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters. You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that. I guess we can put to rest that Sweden and other countries like it have the best education system in the world! I can confirm that the Swedish education system is really awful, especially in math and statistics and especially over the last decade or so. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Cashew on November 07, 2016, 10:56:29 AM this is going to be the closest state! Trump barley wins in the end. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 11:32:22 AM I can confirm that the Swedish education system is really awful, especially in math and statistics and especially over the last decade or so. But we are best at genus science!!!!111 But not just educational system has worsened, dear Gustaf. So did police (no-go-zones), health and elderly care. Thank political correct left :) And what about our liberal court of law? New trend among rapist: they claim they did it while sleeping... and a lot of them were freed by Swedish liberal court. Thank political correct left :) especially over the last decade or so. http://www.migrationsverket.se/download/18.2d998ffc151ac3871599d0d/1462790765011/Beviljade%2Buppeh%C3%A5llstillst%C3%A5nd%2B1980-2015.pdf No? Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Xing on November 07, 2016, 12:21:25 PM This is definitely more believable than Clinton +7. I think she wins by 1-3% here.
Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 12:25:58 PM "Mrs. Clinton leads among voters who have already cast their ballot by a nine-point margin, 49 percent to 40 percent. But Mr. Trump leads among those yet to vote by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent."
This implies that about 65% of their sample has already voted early. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 12:40:01 PM "Mrs. Clinton leads among voters who have already cast their ballot by a nine-point margin, 49 percent to 40 percent. But Mr. Trump leads among those yet to vote by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent." This implies that about 65% of their sample has already voted early. 63% according to crosstabs :P Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Speed of Sound on November 07, 2016, 01:15:59 PM They've updated the model:
Clinton +1.1 is the call. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 01:19:49 PM They've updated the model: Clinton +1.1 is the call. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html Now it is look much better. Is it base on two polls, or just latest one? EDIT: OK, it based on all 3, but the latest poll is sort of basis. Quote In doing so, we’ve also untangled how voters have shifted over our three surveys, then estimated how they would vote today. The results, in other words, are drawn from data pooled from all three surveys, but reflect the race as it was in the weekend before the election, when our final poll showed a tied race Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 07, 2016, 01:24:03 PM Nate Cohn's model is a great idea but the wild changes that this poll has had on his early vote estimate suggests that the only way to implement this idea soundly is if the NYT gave him a budget that's ~10 times larger or so. I think this only works if he conducts polls every day or so with the specific intent of garnering a huge sample of early voters that's more stable. We really shouldn't be seeing fluctuations in the early vote that are this huge: these people already voted!
His revised model will probably be much closer to the final result but I'm left feeling like this will be by coincidence rather than the soundness of this whole project. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 01:33:20 PM "Mrs. Clinton leads among voters who have already cast their ballot by a nine-point margin, 49 percent to 40 percent. But Mr. Trump leads among those yet to vote by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent." This implies that about 65% of their sample has already voted early. 63% according to crosstabs :P I couldn't find the actual poll-- can you post the link to the crosstabs? Thanks. Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 01:40:10 PM Crosstabs from Sienna: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf Republican retain control 47% Democrats take control 45% Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 01:45:59 PM Crosstabs from Sienna: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf Here Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 01:58:48 PM Crosstabs from Sienna: http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3603bf1b-a0f6-4234-ba77-34eeadff55d0.pdf Here Thank you! And updating the numbers: Of the 63% (504/800) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 49 Trump - 40 Ross - 52 Burr - 42 Cooper - 52 McCrory - 43 It look like Ross is running slightly ahead of Clinton and Cooper in EV, despite trailing overall. Interesting! Title: Re: NC-Upshot/Siena: Tie Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 09, 2016, 06:03:58 AM It was not what I said. Educated white women --coming home--> Trump ... Let me try this again. Graph says White, which includes White men and White women. Not Educated White women, not Educated White men, not White women, not White men, but ALL White voters. You CANNOT say that Educated White women are "coming home" to Trump based on that. I guess we can put to rest that Sweden and other countries like it have the best education system in the world! I can confirm that the Swedish education system is really awful, especially in math and statistics and especially over the last decade or so. You are a confirmation of it all by yourself :P |