Talk Elections

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html?referer=https://t.co/b6K2oygAcz

Burr 46%
Ross 45%

I really believe she's going to pull it out, on the three races MO/NC/IN I think she's the most likely.

Only underperforming Clinton by 1 point? Yeah, Ross can pull this off if there's a slight polling error in her direction.

If it's 44/44 in the presidential race and 46/45 for Burr in the senate race it technically means she is already overperforming Hillary; Burr is just overperforming Trump by more. But yes, Hillary will eventually win NC and that gives Ross the edge.

I read that dems are stating to fear for this race- I wonder whether someone like Foxx or Kagan would have done better or whether Ross benefits from literally being a generic D

Ross is not "literally a generic D." She clearly has quite a left-wing profile. She's no McGinty, CCM or Murphy, and the GOP have consistently referred to her as "radical Ross" in attack ads. She could be the next Elizabeth Warren and I doubt a more moderate candidate would have done better than she does, so I think that from a progressive, Democratic perspective it was the right choice to have her as candidate. I still think she will win ftr.

Kagan was a Generic D when she first ran in 2008, but would be a strong candidate as she has built a high profile. Foxx would have been a strong recruit, but he would not run against Burr as he was instrumental in getting him appointed Secretary of Transportation.

This race is the toughest one for me to predict. I'm guessing that if Clinton wins NC by <1% or loses it, Burr wins. If she wins by 1-3%, it could go either way. If she wins by more than 3%, Ross wins. Pure Toss-Up.