Talk Elections

Hey guys, I believe that this is important to have a megathread will all the potential candidates, so please if you have any infos share them with us!


2017
Virginia:
Democrats: Ralph Northman (current Lt Governor)
Republicans: Ed Gillespie (former 2014 senate nominee), Frank Wagner (state senator), Rob Wittman (US representative), Corey Stewart (a strong supporter)

New Jersey
Republicans: Jack Ciattarelli (state assemblyman)
Democrats: Phil Murphy (former Goldman Sachs executive), John Wisniewski (some important Bernie dudes)


2018

California
Democrats: Gavin Newson (Lieutenant Governor), John Chiang (State Treasurer), Antonio Villaraigosa (mayor of Los Angeles)
Republicans: no one relevant yet

Idaho
Republicans: Brad Little (Lieutenant Governorà
Democrats: no one yet

Illinois
Republicans: Bruce Rauner (incumbent governor)
Democrats: No one yet

Minnesota
Democrats: Erin Murphy ( former state senate majority leader)
Republicans: No one yet

Ohio
Republicans: Mike Dewine (former senator, incumbent Attorney General)
Democrats: No one yet

South Dakota
Republicans: Kristi Noem (US representative)
Democrats: no one yet

Reserved

Yeah, I'll do everything I can to stop Phil Murphy (aka Jon Corzine 2.0) from being Governor. Rush Holt really needs to run, he'd win in a walk.

It's been mentioned in another thread that Tim Scott is considering a 2018 SC gubernatorial run with Trey Gowdy as his running mate.

Why would a sitting Congressman take a step down to Lt. Governor?

In New Mexico apparently Tom Udall is seriously considering running for governor.

I will only update my posts when they will announce.

What about Gavin Newsome, Antonio Villaraigosa and John Chiang for California governorship in 2018?

Yes you're right I will update it tonight

Gowdy apparently hates Congress, and wants to live full time in Spartenburg (I think?) South Carolina with his family. And Scott is good friends with Gowdy and was considering a move to Governor in the first place.

I guess stranger things have happened. DeWine was a Senator and now he's but an Attorney General. Speaking of which...

Both A.G. Mike DeWine (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/blogs/2016/05/26/mike-dewine-inadvertently-reveals-run-ohio-governor/84981298/) and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/08/ohio_lieutenant_governor_mary.html) have announced for the Ohio governorship.

New Jersey is Safe D, Virginia is the only one to watch. 2018 will certainly be a fascinating year for governorships due to all the open seats.

Shame that there aren't any better candidates in Virginia other than "fiscally conservative" Northam. Are there any other solidly progressive people who could run?

Not mentioned:
New Jersey:
R:
Jack Ciattarelli, State Assemblyman
Joseph Rudy Rullo, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012

D:
Jim Johnson, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Enforcement

"Fiscally conservative" is not always bad. On the contrary - it's frequently rather good. And while Virginia gradually moves left - even Vermont preferred at least "somewhat fiscally conservative" candidate this year...

jfc

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/12/tennessees-2018-governors-race-right-around-corner/93545998/

TN has the problem of too strong of a Republican bench, which could make for a really fascinating primary (given the state of the Tennessee Democratic Party, the de facto general election).

Any chance Dems wrangle the ol' Indian Outlaw himself (Tim McGraw) like they were talking about ten years ago? I doubt Cooper would run

Yes, TN is a safe state, but it is also a safe state with a terribly inept minority party, so I would not count on the Democrats making a major coup like that.

Who is more inept? TN Dems or AL Dems?

SD-Gov: Noem is in. (http://www.argusleader.com/story/blogs/jonathanellis/2016/11/14/exclusive-noem-announces-historic-bid-governor/93811528/)

Instant front runner.

Let's see if SHS can be coaxed back into the House race...

She's a lobbyist now so she could have some Evan Bayh like problems if she attempts a comeback

Yeah, no. No way.

Eek didn't know that. In that case maybe somebody like Jason Frerichs

If Brendan Johnson won't run for AG(if that's up in 2018), he could run.

I updated everything, please let me know if I have forgotten something.

Can't wait for Florida!

Not mentioned:
New Jersey:
R:
Joseph Rudy Rullo, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012

D:
Jim Johnson, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Enforcement

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  4m4 minutes ago
SOUTH CAROLINA: Ex-St Health Dir & ex-St Labor Dir Catherine Templeton (R) told media she will enter open gubernatorial race in January.

Great Mentioner for Minnesota. Rybak is a definite no. (http://www.startribune.com/last-election-barely-past-minnesota-s-next-governor-s-race-gets-going/402072125/)

Pawlenty seems to indicate that he's not running for governor again in 2018 (nor Senate for that matter):

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2016/11/23/tim-pawlenty-on-governors-race-im-politically-retired/

Setti Warren interested in MA. (http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2016/11/23/setti-warren-running-governor/)

I like this news! I think he'd be a strong candidate and a fresh face in MA politics. I know Baker is largely considered to be the favorite to win, but warren would give him a run for his money. Even if Warren lost, it would give him name recognition and would pave the way for a future run for governor / senate / congress. I would likely vote for him in the primary, I suppose I'll have to wait to see who else runs too though.

I know they're unrelated, but how much of a boost would Massachusetts Dems see for Etti since they're voting Warren/Warren at the top of the ticket?

I hope Wisinewski wins NJ Governor Primary but it's definitely and uphill battle. Affluent states are hard for Berniecrats ):

St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman won't run for re-election this cycle. It's believed he'll run for Governor or, if Klobuchar goes for that seat, Senate instead.

Chris Coleman, Tim Walz, and Collin Peterson all three would be pretty good nominees for the gubernatorial seat.

A state I'm interested in is Nevada, out of all the 2016 swing states is Nevada it's one of the few trending dem. An the name I keep hearing is Steve Sisolak.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/11/joe_schiavoni_the_goal_is_to_r.html (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/11/joe_schiavoni_the_goal_is_to_r.html) OH Sen Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni is all but in.

He's a good choice, being really prominent in clark County

Unless Ryan runs...

Nice, he's a Wisconsin alum.

Why would he run honestly? He has always declined doing that in the past.

Yes, but why would you ever leave a safe as safe can be congressional seat? A few of my friends in Ohio have pointed this out to me when I've put Ryan forward.

Is it weird that i'm hoping Joe Piscopo run in NJ? Ive been hearing lots of rumors. 

I really think that Kennedy is going to help kill gerrymandering.

If Democrats can't gerrymander, then they should get rid of it.

A Piscopo candidacy would be the most New Jersey campaign we'll probably ever see!

I doubt he would win, but I would not rule out the chance that a Piscopo v. Phil Murphy race that Piscopo pulls an upset.

Even if he doesn't, Ohio has an initiative process that Democrats will probably attempt to use (again) if they can't win OH in 2018.

He's an ambitious guy who is clearly getting frustrated with the lack of opportunities to move up in the House (hence his challenge to Pelosi).

J.B. Pritzker considers running as a Democrat in Illinois:


http://www.politico.com/states/illinois/story/2016/12/jb-pritzker-would-self-fund-2018-gubernatorial-run-107807

YES!!

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  10m10 minutes ago
"Maybe in the year 2090" - US Sen Tim Scott (R-SC), on whether he will run for Governor

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  1m1 minute ago
GEORGIA: Retiring Cong Lynn Westmoreland (R) holding "reconnect tour" around state; says he's considering 2018 run for Governor.

With Malloy getting a 2nd term as DGA Chair, some are saying this means it's unlikely he'll run for reelection in Connecticut.
http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Malloy-to-lead-Democratic-governors-group-again-10695607.php

At the same time, State Comptroller Kevin Lembo might be making some moves:
http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Outspoken-comptroller-could-be-mulling-10688402.php

With Branstad accepting the offer of Chinese Ambassador, the race for Iowa Governor is now open.

Agreed, Morgan/Graham would be a good ticket however. Would provide some regional balance to the ticket.

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  36s36 seconds ago
IOWA: Cong Steve King (R) says he may run for Gov in 2018. Lt Gov Kim Reynolds (R) to move up to Gov, certain to run in 2018.

We may have a battle a brewing.

King could make it competitive. Likely R with Reynolds

IL: Chris Kennedy will file within a month. (http://www.politico.com/states/illinois/story/2016/12/chris-kennedy-hiring-staff-to-roll-out-governor-run-in-short-order-107878)

Florida Dems gonna Florida Dem?

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  4m4 minutes ago
FLORIDA: Outgoing Cong Patrick Murphy (D), who lost US Sen run, says he wants "to keep all options on the table" about poss 2018 Gov run.

LOL Fratrick.

Per ABQ Journal, Udall not running in '18

So much for that.

I guess it'll be one of the Lujans then? They're cousins so I doubt they'll both run.

What about that Mayor of Santa Fe who's openly gay? Javier Gonzales

Based on his wiki article he sounds mostly OK (with a few notable exceptions) but I don't know if he'd be a good statewide candidate.

Is there a reason I'm not seeing Hector Balderas being mentioned? AG stands for Aspiring Governor after all.

So what's the word on Michigan? On the one hand it went to Trump but on the other hand the Flint water crisis is gonna be a big talking point against republicans at the local level

It's probably best to mostly ignore presidential results when thinking about Governor races, especially during midterms.

Probably between Schuette and Calley on the R side. D side should be wide open; I'd expect Whitmer and Hackel to both take stabs at it

Murphy didn't run a good statewide campaign, he shouldn't run for governor. If he wants back in politics, though, he should run for his house seat again. He seems pretty popular in his district, and a republican just won his seat. He could beat Mast, especially if the midterm is rough for Trump and Republicans.

How did Murphy do vs. Rubio in Murphy's district?

Either that or one of the lower statewide offices - Maybe CFO or Agriculture Comissioner.

And to answer the question asked if he won his own district - no, he did not. He did worse than Clinton in both of the notable counties in the district, and Clinton only barely out-performed Perkins.

In that case, let's not run Murphy for anything ever again.

WI: Abele and Cullen out. (http://urbanmilwaukee.com/2016/12/08/murphys-law-state-democrats-could-sink-still-lower/)

MA: Moulton confirms he's out, running for reelex. (https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/12/08/unusually-frank-help-wanted/Ya7wdiI7FsqxBR7tXiNygJ/story.html)

I'm mildly surprised he announced it so early, but I never expected him to run anyway.

I think it will be Setti Warren honestly.

Update from that link:

Star Tribune ‏@StarTribune  5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman has filed paperwork to run for Governor of Minnesota.

Why can't I be 25 so I can go run for that seat. I actually want to move to Albuquerque irrespective of politics.

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  21m21 minutes ago
CALIFORNIA: Retiring Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin (R), the top GOP prospect for Governor in 2018, announced she will NOT run.

Clay Pell isn't ruling out a primary challenge to Raimondo. (http://wpri.com/2016/12/17/nesis-notes-dec-17/)


In a somewhat interesting story: Sioux Falls Mayor Mike Huether (http://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/south-dakota/dem-sioux-falls-mayor-changing-political-party-affiliation/article_cd2ce67b-e38d-5584-908e-6b6d600cfdda.html), who has been a rumored statewide candidate, has changed his party ID from Democrat to Independent. Possible Bill Walker/Greg Orman scenario?

TN: Diane Black will likely be Budget Chair, so presumably she's out. (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/diane-black-candidate-chair-house-budget-committee-tom-price-233012)

NV (https://www.facebook.com/DeanHeller/posts/10155113753769505): Heller running for reelex. Hutch will run, maybe Laxalt. Laxalt wins a primary, per Ralston.

Ralston: Heller wanted to run but Laxalt wouldn't back down and Heller decided to avoid a primary. Laxalt is probably running (https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/814566369572204544).

Probably better. Heller needs to run for reelection, it would be in Laxalt's best interests to do so too, and then challenge CCM in 2022 for his grandpa's seat (he'll lose, but I want CCM to get a good challenger). A crowded primary should be avoided, but I'm predicting Democrats to pick up NV-GOV, NV-SEN, and at least one row office. I think it could stay competitive in the future, but 2018 probably won't be good for Nevada Republicans. Then again, even 2006 had Gibbons win the open Governorship, Ensign win by double digits, and Jon Porter hold onto his swingy seat. Things have changed, but NV Democrats may not turn out.

NV: Ralston says Laxalt would likely clear the GOP field if he ran, Dem businessman Steve Cloobeck is the only person considering right now. (https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/thursday-potpourri-sandovals-butte-move-hellers-primary-avoidance-and-fiores-returnl)

I was expecting Republicans to at least try to knock off Laxalt - he wasn't even qualified for the job he ran for and won in 2014!

Cloobeck was on Undercover Boss where he came off as a pretentious ass. Doubt he'd do well

Heidi Gansert or Ross Miller would be good for Nevada.

If Laxalt vacates AG, I imagine Miller looks there unless he decides to gun for Heller

New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) might be considering a run for CT Gov. She's the youngest big city mayor in the country at 29.


http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/766368?section=JohnGizzi&keywords=erin-stewart-mayor-new-britain&year=2017&month=01&date=01&id=766368&aliaspath=%2FManage%2FArticles%2FTemplate-Main&oref=www.google.com

Front runner barring entry by Kildee or Hackel

Chicago Alderman Ameya Pawar to Run for IL Governor

http://wtax.com/news/101101-chicago-alderman-to-run-for-governor/

CA: Faulconer considering. (http://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2017/01/kevin-faulconer-san-diego-mayor-quietly-mulls-run-for-governor-108468)

VA: Perriello considering.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/04/us/tom-perriello-virginia-governor.html?mtrref=t.co&gwh=4A4A7A12B8BCF85394202B221B8A4A1C&gwt=pay)

Plot twist!

Martin says Perriello will announce tomorrow, Kaine/Warner/Macker are all closing ranks around Northam.

I had predicted Tom to run for the Senate and for Tim Kaine to retire.  This is funny

I like Perriello, but I feel like he's a better fit for a state like Wisconsin or Michigan rather than Virginia. Still, I think he'll excite the "base" more than Northam can, and VA Dems cannot afford low turnout in this year's election.

I'm undecided as for who I'd vote for in the primary, but I'm actually glad there's a solid alternative as long as nothing gets nasty.

Perriello is IN. (http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/shad-plank-blog/dp-shakeup-in-the-governor-s-race-nyt-says-perriello-will-run-20170104-post.html) Reportedly called Northam to confirm.

()

NJ: Senator Ray Lesniak, after declaring that he would run for Governor in June, declaring that he wouldn't run in October, and declaring that he might retire from politics altogether just a week ago, is now strongly leaning towards... running for Governor. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/is_lesniak_planning_to_run_for_nj_governor_after_a.html

ENDORSED

IA: Rich Leopold (D) to run for governor.


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/04/democrat-rich-leopold-run-governor/96148242/

Who will probably be running and most likely to win primary/GE.

IA: Liz Mathis
NV: Ross Miller
CO: Ed Perlmutter
WI: Ron Kind
OH: Tim Ryan
ME: Janet Mills
MN: Lori Swanson

There are strong options. I don't know much about Mills or Mathis, but looking at this the dial moves a lot in our direction.

IA: ? prolly Leans R
NV: Tossup
CO: Leans D
WI: Leans D (But what happens to Kind's House seat?)
OH: Tossup (Ditto)
ME: Leans D
MN: Leans D

After Feingold and Clinton lost that state, Walker won in a recall... how can you argue that Wisconsin leans Democrat? I'm more convinced by "Likely R" arguments than I am by "Lean D" ones.

The race is wide open in CT for 2018. Here's some background on the potential candidates, roughly in order of likelihood of running.

Democrats:
Dan Drew - Middletown Mayor, ambitious guy but pretty young (36), would have fundraising troubles
Kevin Lembo - Comptroller, wants to run but would probably defer to Wyman
Martin Looney - CT Sen Pres Pro Tem, interested but would defer to Wyman
Dan Esty - Yale Professor and Environmental Lawyer, husband to Rep. Elizabeth Esty (CT-5)
Susan Bysiewicz - Fmr SoS, well known but has a losing streak, out of politics too long
Ted Kennedy Jr - State Sen., has a famous name, some history of campaign funding issues
Jonathan Harris - Consumer Protection Admin, has been making the rounds, but pretty unknown
Nancy Wyman - Lt. Gov, may be too connected to Malloy
Dan Malloy - Incumbent Gov, he's probably out and would face a primary challenger if he ran
George Jepsen - CT AG, like's being AG and probably won't run


From what I've heard from state party people, Dan Drew and Kevin Lembo both really want the job and will run if Nancy Wyman does not. Right now, I would guess that both Malloy and Wyman pass, and the top tier of entering candidates will be Drew, Lembo, and Looney (with Lembo possibly a slight favorite).

Republicans:
Prasad Srinivasan - State Rep., only declared candidate of either party so far
Tim Herbst - Trumbull First Selectman, mentioned by CT GOP Chair as a potential candidate
Peter Lumaj - Attorney, ran for Senate in 2012, created exploratory committee
Mark Lauretti - Shelton Mayor, mentioned by CT GOP Chair as a potential candidate
Tony Hwang - State Sen., created exploratory committee 2 years ago but internal #s are meh
Mark Boughton - Danbury Mayor, ran for Lt. Gov in 2010 and Gov in 2014, created exploratory committee
Rob Kane - State Sen., created exploratory committee
Erin Stewart - Not ruling it out, she's like the Republican version of Dan Drew, there's a post about her made earlier.
Greg Butler -  Like's being considered a potential candidate
Len Fasano -  Like's being considered a potential candidate
Toni Boucher - Linda McMahon said to watch her
Jayme Stevenson - Linda McMahon said to watch her
John McKinney - Fmr House Minority Leader, ran for Gov in 2014
Tom Foley - Gov nominee in 2010 and 2014, probably not interested in running again


I don't know as much about GOP politics in CT, but the bigger names to watch here are probably Herbst, Boughton, and Hwang.

This likely won't be accurate, but my very early guess is that Lembo defeats Herbst.

http://www.dailyructions.com/eye-on-estys-its-him-not-her-malloy-ally-testing-waters-for-2018-run-for-governor/
https://dennishouse.tv/2017/01/02/who-will-run-for-governor-in-2018/

In MN it looks to be crowded with Chris Coleman, Otto, Tina Smith, Swanson and Tim Walz. I think Lori Swanson would be the strongest candidate by far, she has won statewide 3x times by impressive margins. She has always done well in the Metro and outstate even in bad years for Ds '10/'14. 12+ years as a AG is a good record to run on as well.

CA: Former LA Ram Rosey Grier (R) running.

http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/312969-former-los-angeles-rams-star-im-running-for-california-governor

Against the Mayor of Milwauee and a bike company executive, not a blue-collar congressman. He has bad approval ratings.

NV: Hutchison  (https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/818281432044818432)out. Laxalt has the field to himself.

That's kind of surprising.

Michigan:Gretchen Whitmer is running for governor.[/url[url=http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/boise/2016/jun/29/lt-gov-brad-little-jumps-race-governor-succeed-otter-2018/]Idaho: Lt Governor Brad Little is in (http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/03/whitmer-first-jump-into-2018-michigan-governors-race/96116246/)

Texas Lt. Gov Dan Patrick will not challenge Gov. Greg Abbott in 2018.

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas-politics/2017/01/09/texas-lt-gov-dan-patrick-seek-reelection-2018-repeats-promise-challenge-gov-greg-abbott


Otto is in for MN.

Politics1.com ‏@Politics1com  14m14 minutes ago
MINNESOTA: St Auditor Rebecca Otto (D) today became the 3rd Dem to enter the open 2018 gubernatorial race.

Yeah, no kidding. IMO Heller and Hutch were both much stronger candidates, too. Laxalt seems to be shooting party in the foot

It seems Nevada Republicans, as expected, will run away from the remarkably popular Brian Sandoval legacy.

Dems have an opportunity here!

TN-2018: State Sen. Mark Green (R) launches his candidacy:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/05/sen-mark-green-launches-bid-governor/96205260/

He was also one of the first people to interrogate Saddam Hussein in Iraq after he was captured.  I won't endorse for a while, but I could potentially vote for him in the primary.

What's his place on the spectrum? More like Haslam or more like Blackburn?


Mind bogglingly stupid of them. Blue state Repubs should look at NV 14 and salivate

Swanson has always done very well in rural areas, pro-gun, pro-mining she is exactly what the DFL needs right now.

Mark Green has a 90% rating from the ACU, so probably closer to Blackburn.

Haslam is more my cup of tea, but that sounds appropriate for a Tennessee Republican.

Steve Sisolak is a happy man right now

Not my type either. Haslam and Alexander are absolutely fine to me, but far-rightists - never. Even in conservative states..

Is NV Gov looking to be Sisolak vs Cloobeck? I have a hunch Ross Miller runs for the open AG slot personally

Cloobeck may run for Senate instead.

Interesting. I wonder if Aaron Ford guns for a different statewide office in that case.

I don't know why I know so much about NV politics...

Ralston said Ford isn't interested.

Any word on Rep. Mark Amodei? I remember reading awhile back that he would consider running for governor if Dean Heller didn't run. Would Amodei challenge Laxalt in the primary?

Ralston said Amodei might run for AG.

Who'd be the top recruits to run for his seat if he gets in?

Maybe one of the state legislators from Reno? Just a guess.

Any chance of the Democrats picking up that seat in a wave?

Middletown, CT mayor Dan Drew (D) has formed an exploratory committee for Governor. My state sources say Malloy has said he won't run, but are pissed at Drew for doing this.

http://www.middletownpress.com/government-and-politics/20170112/middletown-mayor-dan-drew-explores-run-for-connecticut-governor

NV: Laxalt is securing megadonors.  (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/646811/laxalt-secures-high-profile-gop-donors?mref=search-result)

CT: First Selectman of Trumbull Tim Herbst (R) is in.

He's probably one of the strongest Republicans that will run, and could very well be the next Governor of Connecticut.

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-tim-herbst-running-governor-20170113-story.html

Is Tim Herbst unpopular with the GOP establishment? He strikes me as an incredibly capable person but also kind of an a-hole. I'd be surprised if they just let him skate to the nomination.

Seems to be a very agressive "bulldog" and fiscal conservative. It would be interesting to know his views on social issues - after all Connecticut is not a socially conservative state.

CA: Thiel is considering, but probably won't run. (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/peter-thiel-california-governor-bid-233632)

PLEASE let him run. I can't wait to see the ads about how he's literally out for your blood. (http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/peter-thiel-wants-to-inject-himself-with-young-peoples-blood)

Today Mike Johnston, a former state senator from Colorado, announced his candidacy for governor. I don't know a whole lot about him, but he seems alright.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/17/mike-johnston-2018-colorado-governor-bid/ (http://www.denverpost.com/2017/01/17/mike-johnston-2018-colorado-governor-bid/)

NV: Cloobeck says he plans to run and will self-fund. (http://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/columns/steve-sebelius/adam-laxalt-steve-sisolak-and-steve-cloobeck-big-money-players-the)

It seems clear from reporting that Miller isn't running for anything.

Wonder if Sisolak would look at taking on Heller

NV: Amodei out, considering reelex or AG. GOP field is officially clear for Laxalt. (http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/18/amodei-says-he-wont-run-governor/96740350/)

What about a lower state office holder? Are cegavske or Schwartz interested?

NV: Schwartz is considering. (http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/09/hagar-laxalt-may-get-company-gop-field-nevada-governor/97720982/)

MI: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, Detroit Department of Health & Wellness Promotion Executive Director, has resigned his post to "pursue" a run for Governor. (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2017/02/09/detroit-health-director-make-bid-governor/97690634/)

Looking more and more like Sisolak is a lock which could be big in knocking out Heller as well

Except Laxalt was cleared by the FBI, as the article says.

Lincoln Chafee says he might run for governor of Rhode Island again:

http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20170221/lincoln-chafee-defends-trump-criticizes-raimondo-and-does-not-rule-out-return-to-politics

rofl lmao what a loser

JFC

In other news, saw a rumor on RRH that Car Brewer is IN for KS-Gov

Tim Walz said he was "seriously considering" running for Governor at a town hall today.

I really hope he doesn't, his district is an R+1 district so it may be difficult for Dems to hold this seat if he vacates it. Same with Rick Nolan. And it's not as if Democrats are lacking candidates for governor, they have three very credible candidates in the race already and more may join.

CT Gov. Malloy says he will decide on reelection after the budget is completed in the spring.

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/835242866586828802

Is there a Democrat who could successfully primary him/force him to retire?

Middletown Mayor Dan Drew has already entered the race, and I'm sure a lot of Democrats don't want Malloy to be the nominee. Malloy would probably win the primary if he runs, but I don't think he's going to run again.

Would he be taking him on from left or right?

Patrick is the worst. Go Collier.

This is the only video I can find of Chris King.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFG1K2ndbbI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFG1K2ndbbI)

guy has a disgustingly trump-like communication style.

I also get the impression he'd rob me stupid if he got the chance.

This

Gilium is also terrible and Democrats better get a better candidate (they likely will)

So far, I think Graham has the best shot at winning a general election in FL.

CO: Ken Salazar will decide this summer. (http://www.denverpost.com/2017/03/05/ken-salazar-considers-run-colorado-governor/)

He should stay in the House, just for the sake of holding down the seat for Democrats.

Did he?  My mom's cousin is very involved in Middletown politics and campaigned for Drew's opponent last election despite being a staunch Democrat, supposedly because Drew used his position in the Middletown DP to keep a dissenting Democratic council member off the ballot.  He's also very close to Malloy, as he campaigned in Middletown for him because the election was expected to be close, even though it wasn't.  I'd be shocked if he challenged Malloy.

Sorry, clarification: Dan Drew has created an exploratory committee for a Gubernatorial run, not officially running yet (but he's basically running). This is presumably because it's known among higher up Dems that Malloy isn't running again, but state Dems are still upset with Drew because he was supposed to wait for Malloy to announce first that he wasn't running. IF Malloy does for some reason decide to run after all, Dan Drew probably isn't the type to stay in the race.

As for the mess with Drew and the council member, I believe this has more info on that:
http://www.middletownpress.com/article/MI/20151002/NEWS/151009919

I would think holding the Governorship is more important than one House seat.

It really depends on a variety of factors. In this case, Walz seems nervous about losing his seat in 2018 considering he just barely scraped by last November. If he vacates his seat, it will be easier for Republicans to pick it up. I feel like MN has plenty of other decent candidates that could run instead, and Walz would be needed more in the House if that was the case.

The House is the Democrats only real shot at being a check on Trump/Republicans in 2019+, so we really can't afford to lose that seat. Odds are he will have a better year in 2018, given the dynamics of midterms.

I think we can file this under "can we not?"

SC: Dem Chair Jaime Harrison is considering a run.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/governors-races-democrats-rift-235951

Not to derail the thread, but that article was just... so Politico.

"We talked to one Bluedog Chair and he said something juicy about needing Moderate Heroes, so we shoehorned a bunch of other southern moderate Dem chair quotes that don't really say the same thing into saying the same thing. Also Our Revolution is an omnicapable Shadow DNC that's going to form a third party."

In the South (except for minority-majority districts) and some other areas you really need Blue Dogs and "Moderate Heroes". Of course - if you want to win at least sometimes. If not, and you are satisfied by only "making the case" - well, then run Berniecrats in every district, and be politically insignificant.... Let Republicans do what they want)))))

1) My criticism was of the journalism. Whatever you think of electoral strategies for the south, the chairs in the article were plain-up NOT saying what Politico wanted them to be saying. Basically the only quote affirming what the article thinks is a guy in SC who *isn't even professionally involved with the Democratic party anymore. * He's a lawyer with a big DC firm (coincidentally, the one that employed Evan Bayh).

This article picks a narrative, goes out to specifically trying to confirm it, and fails even to do that. The only thing that made sure that it got published was that it confirms Politico's view of how politics works.

Of course, it's also *your* view of how politics works so I don't really expect to change your mind here.


2) Blue Dog =! Moderate Hero in each and every case. I'm perfectly fine with populists who like guns and flags. Hell, I like guns and flags. But thinking like, "The only Dems who are gonna get elected in the South will be Republican Lite^TM" Is deeply silly, and contradicts the history of the region.

I never said that Blue Dogs = Moderate Heroes. And i love Southern populists, despite my different views (i am more liberal on social issues then on economy). The modern history, however, shows, that "the only Democrats elected RECENTLY from non-minority-majority "really Southern" districts (i can't to consider districts of Southern Florida, Northern Virginia and Research Triangle as "really Southern") are conservatively inclined (not really "Republican-lite", as they are much closer to the center, but with tangible conservative streak on many issues)". People like McIntyre, Barrow and their like. It's another thing that even that became not enough frequently.

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Tenative rankings: Hopefully Chris Pappas runs against Sununu in NH

None of the people you listed have any desire or rational reason to run for NHGov

Select overview of races
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DKos: Republicans could see catastrophic losses in 2018's gubernatorial races if Trump sparks a backlash

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/3/8/1638381/-Republicans-could-see-catastrophic-losses-in-2018-s-gubernatorial-races-if-Trump-sparks-a-backlash

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Unless you mean Stefany Shaheen when you say Shaheen, CSP, Kuster, and Sen. Shaheen all have far more power in Congress than they would as NHGov.

Sure, they might win easily per your bizarre theory. But Governor of New Hampshire is a terrible position, especially if you don't flip the Exec Council. The most junior congresscritter has a far more enviable position than John Lynch did in 2012 having been gov for 8 years.

1) The NH house pretty much goes the way the state PV goes. Unless, like this year, the PV margin is razor thin. The State Senate is more heavily gerrymandered.

2) I didn't stay state leg, I said Exec Council. And that *is * pretty well gerrymandered. Maybe the 1st district swings if you don't put up someone like Cryans, but it's very hard for Dems to break through to a 3-2 split.

^Yes, but the NH House and Senate are just as important. And regarding the Executive Council... District 1 is clearly winnable for Democrats, Kenney only won by 5 points in 2016 and the district is trending Democratic. 3 and 5 are much harder to crack, but one of them could fall with the right candidate (and like District 1, they're trending D in the long term).

And regardless, Maggie Hassan always had sky-high approval ratings, even when the GOP controlled the State Leg and Executive Council. So it's not as if you have to be afraid of anything if a Democrat wins the gubernatorial race.

If he's the best candidate for governor, he should run.  The legislature will be hard for Dems to get back as they are too dependent on legacy rural seats.  If a GOP governor is elected, they will lose 3 seats in 2022 guaranteed, 4 if Paulsen is defeated before redistricting.  At this point, it is possible to redistrict MN so that the only 2 Dem seats are downtown MSP.

And its a much better being a Governor than being in the irrelevant minority in the House.

Connie Pillich is in for OH GOV, I actually think she'd be a better candidate than Sutton.

She would, but Schiavoni would probably be a better candidate than either of them (assuming he improves his fundraising).

CA: Garcetti keeps the door open, but hasn't he been boxed out already, Californians? (https://twitter.com/TheMadBrand/status/841732064969801728)

IL: Pritzker forms an exploratory committee. (http://www.politico.com/states/illinois/story/2017/03/jb-pritzker-exploring-run-for-illinois-governor-110366)

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Right now, as of now, we don't know what type of candidate Gwen Graham is.  So, I will go with Betty Sutton winning in Ohio before Graham

Err...Betty Sutton isn't even going to be the Democratic nominee in Ohio...

MN-GOV: The Minnesota Star Tribune reports (http://m.startribune.com/lt-gov-tina-smith-is-out-all-eyes-on-rep-tim-walz/416518413/) that Rep. Tim Walz is running, and "to expect an announcement soon."

Good news for holding the Governor seat, bad news for holding MN-01.

Goddammit Tim.

Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.

Holding on to MN-01 won't be impossible, especially in a Trumpterm.

So is word on the ground that Swanson is staying out, then? Thought she was the DFL juggernaut this time around

No word on Swanson but my guess is she still gets in.  She would be a solid candidate but I wouldn't use the term juggernaut. IMHO Walz would be a slight favorite over her for the nomination.

CO-GOV: Ken Salazar is not running. (http://www.denverpost.com/2017/03/22/why-im-not-running-for-governor/)

Looking more and more like the Ed Perlmutter show.

Yesssssss

Good. Perlmutter is the superior option anyhow

BUT Rep. Jared Polis is not ruling out a run:

"I haven’t ruled anything out and I’m not going to be rushed into a premature decision by today’s news."

I hope Perlmutter wins in order to continue having Colorado governors with goofy names.

More Colorado:

https://www.coloradostatesman.com/cary-kennedy-says-shes-considering-run-governor-dems-salute-salazar/

It would be funny if it was Cary Kennedy vs. Walker Stapleton. Only one of them is part of a political family.

CT: Ted Kennedy Jr. probably running. (http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/A-Kennedy-for-Connecticut-governor-11028630.php)

Good. Malloy must be stopped from running again, although I'm not sure if having two Kennedys run is a good idea.

Maybe not the strongest candidate, but still better than Drew or Malloy.

Obviously, the Kennedys are running for Gov in CO and IL and possibly CT. Obviously, Maria Shriver who was 1st Lady of Cali is encouraging them to run.

Cary Kennedy AFAIK is not one of THOSE Kennedys

Tim Walz in for MN Gov. http://www.postbulletin.com/news/politics/walz-to-run-for-governor/article_bf1a1a38-f506-5c21-b2f1-cf2365af29c0.html

Seems like he'd be the favorite in the Democratic primary over Coleman

Echh MN-1 is going to be a tough seat to hold.

Endorsed. Bit ambitious given how he was just elected to the State Senate, but whatever.

Oh Jesus, another Kennedy? No thank you! :(

Why not? I am not flaming liberal, but i like Kennedy's since 1963))))

CT Comptroller Kevin Lembo (D) sounds like man that wants to run for Governor.




http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/Jacqueline-Smith-The-smackdown-for-governor-11030296.php

Sounds like a lot of people are lining up under the expectation that Malloy is on the outs

Per DKE so grain of salt but it sounds like former OK AG Drew Edmondson (D) is gearing up for a run for Gov. Surprisingly A-list candidate who has won statewide four times, though I'm skeptical he can beat Lamb in OK even in a Trump midterm

He probably is, thank God.  Still anybody's guess as to whether he will run for a third term, but....the man is EXTREMELY unpopular right now. 

Not really talked about but how much does the Raiders move to Vegas help Steve Sisolak if he makes the governor run?

I don't follow Connecticut politics super closely...why is he so unpopular?

It's not a great comparison, but may be easiest to understand in casting him as the Brownback of CT. Everyone has some reason or another to dislike him. A lot of it has to do with his poor handling of the budget and job record.

Depends. It's a nice feather in cap, though Sandoval spearheaded much of it too. The cost to Nevada is a bit eye popping though, which may hurt

This Boston Globe article about Chris, Ted Jr. and Joe Kennedy says that Joe is expected to be in congress "for a long time" – striking down one of Baker's potential challengers (and maybe a 2020 presidential canddate).

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/04/01/new-wave-kennedys-cresting-across-country/A3K2jOMQ7KvZOSEw2AXW2N/story.html

Trump Jr. for NY gov?

http://pagesix.com/2017/04/05/donald-trump-jr-talks-about-running-for-governor-of-new-york/?_ga=1.99119070.1923632243.1487715151

Rick Nolan is "leaning towards" a run for MN-GOV. (https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2017/04/rep-rick-nolan-says-hes-leaning-toward-running-governor) Will decide by the end of the month.

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One outstate candidate is enough, IMO

Pelmutter likely to announce CO-GOV bid this Sunday. (http://kdvr.com/2017/04/06/congressman-perlmutter-expected-to-announce-run-for-governor-sunday/) Has an announcement speech scheduled in Golden, and a new logo:

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Nolan is 73 and Walz is 54, considering Dayton's health issues I'd think DFLs might want to go for a younger Gov.

:(

Nolan is a great fit for his district he should not just give the seat to Stewart Mills.

Walz is fine and his district is perfectly winnable for a non-Walz Democrat.

Senator Susan Collins says she may run for Governor of Maine (http://www.pressherald.com/2017/04/11/sen-collins-says-she-may-run-for-maine-governor-in-2018/)

Doesn't that mean there has to be a special election for her seat?

She'd get to make the appointment and then there would be the normal election in 2020.

Are you sure? According to this Maine law (https://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-A.pdf):


There would most likely be a special election in 2019. If this is the case, I think I may actually be willing to make this trade.

If Dems take NV and AZ and don't lose anything, that ME special election would be huge. Big if though.

I saw a wrong tweet. I would take this trade as well:

- Collins >>> LePage
- Chance to get the Senate Seat

I just read an article that apparently Lepage would fill the vacancy. I don't understand as I thought it should be her who would havr to make an appointment if she becomes governor

I mean, let's imagine.

Collins wins, so it's her the new governor, so that would be her duty to fill the vacancy right ?
Why Lepage would have this power as rollcall suggested?

Representatives & Senators aren't the same thing.


LePage would only fill the vacancy if she resigns from the Senate prior to the end of his term as Governor. If her resignation from the Senate were to take effect at the exact same time as her gubernatorial term were to begin, then one of her first acts as Governor would be to appoint her replacement.

Probably because she would have to resign from the Senate before taking office as governor.  During that period between her resigning and her taking the oath of office as governor, LePage would be free to make the appointment, I would think.

Maybe she should hold off on resigning until mere seconds before Le Page's term expires, leaving him no time to make the appointment.  :)

Thank you :)

The special election would be held in 2020 btw

You might be right:


Sounds like no special election in this case.

GA: Cagle in. (http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/04/11/georgia-2018-casey-cagle-begins-his-campaign-for-governor/)

No surprise. I think Kemp is the favorite though

Why didn't he run for the open seat in 2010?

I think he did run for a while but then dropped out.

GA: Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D) is considering running for either Governor or Secretary of State (http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/politics-government/election/article144144639.html)

From what I hear her record as Mayor has been pretty solid.

Source: Gov. Malloy Will Not Seek A Third Term  (http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-gov-malloy-will-not-seek-a-third-term-20170413-story.html)

Great news! This has been kind of an open secret for a while, but it's good that other Democrats are now free to explore runs more openly.

Saw this yesterday.  Step one of "the Connecticut Comeback" is complete....I feel like celebrating!! On to Step 2! :)

Maine's independent treasurer declared that she would run for governor today. She looks like she might be the big third party candidate seen in past gubernatorial elections.

Breaking, per WMUR:

Ex-Rep. Paul Hodes is considering for NH-Gov

oh god please no. Yes I'm aware 2010 was a broad based disaster for Democrats but my god Hodes is a disaster.

The first real Democratic candidate for Governor (the current field includes Connie Johnson, a failed gadfly).

I'm not sure if Inman can win, but Fallin under-performed in 2014 (and at certain points her opponent, State Rep Joe Dorman who is now making that pot money, was within single digits) and the economic and the trust situation in this state has only gotten worse. I think Inman has a non-zero chance of winning the Governorship.

It will help that the Republican field already looks like a bloodbath - candidates range from Congressman Jim Bridenstine (far right military veteran + will get most of the "muh conservative" support ala Club for Growth and Red State type institutions), Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (establishment choice), Ken Miller (slightly less charismatic establishment choice), and Gary Richardson (ex-Indie candidate who ran on "Roads, Bridges, and Prisons" and is very pro-Trump + is a money pit). And this excludes a potential surprise comeback from the Oklahoma politicos who always are speculated to run again for stuff (J.C. Watts, T.W. Shannon). Todd Lamb and Ken Miller are both as dull as a stack of blank pieces of paper, so if I had to guess, Bridenstine has the highest candidate quality and probably wins the primary - though Richardson could make things SPICEY sean style.

Wait...Bridenstine is the highest quality Republican candidate?  I'm not saying you're wrong, but that almost sounds like a "well he's the least bad" situation because Bridenstine's certainly no A-lister.  I'm glad Inman's running for Governor rather than AG because he always struck me as one of the better potential Democratic candidates (admittedly a low bar) and while he probably won't do it, I'd rather Drew Edmondson run for AG than Governor.

Bridenstine is more impressive than he looks - he faced a multi-million dollar primary campaign in 2016 and won with over 80% of the vote. He is on Trumps good side and he's on the good side of conservative activists - He's done a very good job of balancing the changes in the right ideologically. Also, some kind of military experience is always good here.

Certainly compared to Todd Lamb, who is a football guy and then went immediately into politics. Lamb will be hit hard with MUH CAREER POLITICIAN ADS, while Bridenstine gets to run as CONSISTENT CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVE. (Bridenstine would certainly suck the air out of the room for a potential TW Shannon run or some other archconservative)

Huh.  Well at least Inman seems like a solid recruit.

Bob Massie considering for MA-GOV (https://commonwealthmagazine.org/politics/massie-considering-democratic-run-for-governor/)

There is no perfect Democrat candidate that hasn't already served two terms for Governor (Brad Henry) or sadly got beat for State Senate last year (John Waldron, a teacher and genuinely great guy), but Inman is solid and Oklahoma is becoming like a mini-Kansas situation where people are getting incredibly upset over their handling of the budget.

And Gary Richardson, the Independent Candidate for Oklahoma Governor in 2002, multiple time congressional candidate, and general fake populist, has entered the race for Oklahoma Governor 16 years after his first bout (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/articles/2017-04-24/tulsa-attorney-gary-richardson-to-run-for-governor-in-2018). Richardson his first time on a platform of infrastructure improvements and more prisons, and I suspect his platform will be of similar right of center populism. This will probably contrast nicely with the generic GOP platitudes of Todd Lamb or muh constitutional conservatism of Bridenstine.

Richardson is a money pit, but he probably won't win - the GOP establishment will do their best to halt his nomination because I suspect he owes no loyalties to Governor Fallin and will probably bash her failed record, and they're pretty good at getting who they want. Still, I'm getting my popcorn out because this GOP primary is going to be a bloodbath.

Biggest news though: Tommy Tuberville will NOT run for Governor of Alabama (http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/04/tommy_tuberville_not_running_f.html), a sign of increasing coalescing around Governor Kay Ivey. I'm beginning she'll get some novelty challenge in the primary and then sail through the general election in a bigger landslide than either time Bentley ran. Not exactly a good sign for downballot Alabama Dems, but then again, has anything good ever happened to downballot Alabama Dems in the last twenty or thirty years?

^ No. Alabama's Democratic party essentially became "Black party", and mirrors national one ideologically. Both these facts were NOT true 30 years ago. So - not surprising...

Alec Ross, former Clinton State Dept. adviser, is running for Governor of Maryland.

https://twitter.com/AlecJRoss/status/857229383093899265

"Senior Advisor for Innovation to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton" and "Startup advisor" are two descriptions that make me recoil in disgust.

MN-GOV: State Rep. Matt Dean (R) is in. (http://www.twincities.com/2017/04/26/republican-rep-matt-dean-joins-crowded-field-in-2018-race-for-governor/)

CT-GOV: Comptroller Kevin Lembo (D) is likely in. (http://www.myrecordjournal.com/news/state/10261850-154/comptroller-kevin-lembo-forming-exploratory-committee-to-run-for-governor.html) Lembo has been a major critic of Dan Malloy.

Tommy Battle is announcing a run for Alabama Governor (http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/southunionstreet/2017/04/28/huntsville-mayor-tommy-battle-running-governor/101027380/), giving us our first potential challenge of Governor Kay Ivey (should she choose to run for a whole term).

ugh what a waste of time - Edmondson already ran and lost in the primary 8 years ago and is now 70 years old. Sadly, I think Edmondson will probably win the primary this time - Scott Inman and Connie Johnson both have less starting name recognition than Jari Askins did - and Edmondson, thanks to his famous name (his dad was a Senator), will probably dominate among Dem money interests because all they care about is LEGACY NAMES.

Edmondson will probably lose to some younger Republican in the general because they can still connect him to muh establishment/muh Obama. I genuinely think Scott Inman is a better candidate because he's a less known figure and more passionate, which means he can better run as a Different Democrat than the Democrats Oklahomans hate.

Could Inman be a good get vs. Steve Russell?

I mean absolutely but Russell is a fairly acceptable Republican for that kind of district. Inman would be an improvement over Tom Guild and Al McAfrey, who have been running back and forth against one another in the primary and both lost by more than Obama and Clinton lost in OK-5. I hope Russell is the kind of MUH TERM LIMITS incumbent that will retire by 2020, but I'm not so sure of that.

Yeah Russell seems like the least bad OK Rep

He definitely is. Oklahoma seems to have a diverse coalition of Republicans - Permanently bored businessman (Mullin), CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVE (Bridenstine), permanent boring insider (Cole), man whose own grandma couldn't tell you his name (Lucas), and highly decorated veteran Steve Russell of Oklahoma's 5th. Russell ran as very conservative, and I expected his tenure to be more along the lines of Bridenstine's voting record, but he's turned out to be a relative moderate considering the Oklahoma delegation. Russell has a lot going for him, and I'd be surprised if he ever lost to a Democrat. OK-5 is probably his as long as he wants it.

Yes, and it's getting worse. And that's not all - The Republican is being tainted by Republican State Rep after Republican State Rep falling to corruption/sex scandals + Republicans continuing to have the same budget problems year after year drastically cutting public education and healthcare (hospitals are going bankrupt). 2016 was a saving grace for a lot of state Republicans, as most close races were pulled away by Dr. Donald Trump, but I think 2018, a year where unenthusiastic Republicans probably won't turn out, I think Democrats at least have the chances to make solid gains in the State House and Senate, and at most take the Governorship - especially if someone linked to Governor Fallin's hip is chosen. I'd give Democrats about a 5-10% chance of winning the Governorship, which puts it at about Likely R.

The lack of recruitment on behalf of Michigan Democrats is concerning.

Gretchen Whitmer is a strong recruit.

Oh, she's good. I thought we were limited to El-Sayed. Who I hear great things about from friends familiar with Detroit, but there's no way he's ready. And I suppose it's possible Kildee gets in.

I was fairly confident that Pruitt was going to be the next Governor of Oklahoma until he was nominated to the EPA.

Interesting parallels between OK-Gov and KS-Gov emerging. Both states in a budget crisis, both have a likely strong Dem primary (Brewer and probably Svaty in Kansas & Edmonson and Inman in Oklahoma), and both have an outsider GOP businessman running as a populist (Hartman in Kansas and Richardson in Oklahoma).

Unfortunately yes Pruitt was looking like a strong contender for Governor of Oklahoma until that nomination.

Do Democrats have a shot in Wyoming? I assume Mead is uncontroversial but it's an open seat and Democrats have a history of success in WY-gov during Republican presidencies (similar to KS and OK) despite the fact that it has basically always been a Republican state on other levels.

Maybe. Don't know who of Freudenthal's stature is out there

His wife is the Chief Judge of the District of Wyoming. Could she be a contender?

OH: Husted in. (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/05/jon_husted_becomes_latest_repu.html#incart_2box)

CT Lt. Gov Nancy Wyman is considering a run, and says she'll decide in the next month or so.

http://fox61.com/2017/05/07/the-real-story-wyman-considers-run-for-governor/

Rep. Kildee NOT running for Governor of Michigan, will instead run for reelection.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kildee-passes-run-governors-race

Looks like Whitmer will likely be the nominee

For the best. I think Whitmer's the superior candidate

^^

ID: Labrador in. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/raul-labrador-governor_us_5911dbc9e4b0a58297dfa6a7?j7n)

Fieger says he might run for Michigan governor (and doesn't rule out a presidential run in 2020 either):

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/12/fieger-considering-run-governor/101590714/

I hope he doesnt pull votes away from Whitmer.

uhh... Chris Kennedy's campaign is not going well so far (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/14/chris-kennedy-illinois-governor-bid-238364). Rumor is some Dems are asking him to drop out.

Keep your eyes on Kansas today. I'll edit this post once it happens.

Is Kobach announcing?

Lol when you're losing to JB Pritsker in a Dem primary

Iowa State Rep. Todd Prichard (D) Running for Governor.


https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/iowa/articles/2017-05-16/iowa-state-rep-todd-richard-running-for-governor

Lol at a millionaire Kennedy businessman running as anti-establishment.

Remarkable the difference between Wisconsin recruiting and other Midwestern states for Democrats

Particularly Iowa

Five pretty strong candidates vs. a 25-year-old who ran for the house in California six months ago. The Wisconsin Democratic Party should be referred to in the past tense.

wow what a crowded field.

Former Kansas Agriculture Commissioner and State Rep, (currently a farmer) Josh Svaty announced his campaign for governor in Black Wolf Kansas today. The first article covers his announcement, while the second one discusses reactions to it, including that of yours truly.

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article150832357.html

http://www.salina.com/news/local/crowd-pleased-to-hear-svaty-plans-to-run/article_e75a4fce-1251-5554-8910-1ec8ccec1b77.html

Endorsed! Been hoping he'd get in

Who is better between Svaty and Brewer? As far as i see it - we have relatively rural candidate (Svaty) against very urban (Brewer) here. But what abouth geography, ideology and so on? Brewer is from Wichita.Svaty - ?

Svaty is from Ellsworth County, a rural central Kansas county. He remains popular in his old district and in much of Central Kansas as a whole. The KDP has a divide between rural and urban Democrats and it shows in various races, this one included.

Brewer seems to be quite moderate, having even endorsed and fundraised for Pat Roberts in 2008!! It's tough to know exactly where he is on the issues though because as mayor he didn't have to deal with lots of national issues. He was a member of Mayors Against Illegal Guns and close to the business community during his terms. Also called for police body cameras. Overall Brewer did a good job in Wichita.

Svaty is moderate on social issues (voted pro-life in the legislature) but relatively mainstream Dem on economic issues. He has a strong record on environmental and energy issues that I think can help him with progressives. However, Svaty's already being attacked (just hours after announcing) on his abortion stance. Some of the attacks are quite exaggerated, and as we saw in KS-04's nomination race, that issue will likely create a grueling primary season.

Brewer is not nearly as charismatic as Svaty but he does carry more name recognition and as of now would win Sedgwick County and probably Wyandotte and Johnson too. As Svaty raises money and becomes more known we'll see how that dynamic changes. He explained today that he has family in many counties and plans to campaign in every county in the state. I think that Brewer has weaker organization of his campaign at this point but if others stay out of the race maybe some people will flock to him.

The real wild card is whether or not State House Minority Leader Jim Ward, a fiery progressive from Wichita, will jump in. Rumor has it he is considering but in the past few days I've heard he is leaning no. Personally, I am a huge fan of his but I believe he would be most effective in the legislature. I also hear that the mayor of Lawrence, KS may run but I don't think he would have much appeal outside of Douglas County.

Dems really need to give rural/red state pro-life Democrats a break. I'm pro choice but sheesh know your audiences

2 VPH Thanks a lot for detailed answer! Well, i doubt that a "fiery progressive" will stand a good chance to win in Kansas. Of two Svaty seems to be better to me (despite me being pro-choice)

Yeah. Simple idea of running solidly pro-choice Democrat in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama causes an uncontrolled  burst of laughter in me..

It's quite obvious that the Democrats want throw the rednecks out in order to creat a globalist socially liberal Democratic party vs a populist FN/FPÖ Republican party scenario. Probably a winning strategy on the long term, but they would face strong EC disadvantages in the short term if Trump and the Republicans max out non college-educated whites. Tbh I would hate a scenario like that. I would easily vote in the Democrats in that case, but I still prefer traditional right-wing parties over centrist :) technocratic :) parties.

NM: Balderas out. (https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/864908386063839233)

As has been discussed here before, Governor Dan Malloy of CT will not be running for a third term.  To which I say, hallelujah....Connecticut is in an awful mess due to Democrats controlling Hartford for so long.  It's clearly time for a change.  Oh, and if the GOP doesn't win this gubernatorial race....I may seriously consider moving to Florida or Texas.  Things are ultra-screwed up right now.  :(

As evidence, I submit the following.  Currently, CT has a 500 million dollar budget deficit.  Connecticut's second largest city, Hartford, is on the verge of bankruptcy (I'm told litigation is pending at the moment), and even Governor Malloy has said that "taxing the rich isn't working".  However....Democrats in Hartford want to raise taxes, and levy new ones (like a one cent per ounce tax on "sugary drinks").  It makes me question their sanity....just saying.  :(

Woah! Basically clears the path for Grisham, then, no?

AZ-GOV: State Sen. Steve Farley (D) has a special announcement on June 5.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/18/1661758/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-18?t=1495120498598#update-1495120498000

Is Foley going to try again?  If not who would the frontrunner be?

Almost certainly not. There's a thread on the race here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=262382.50

Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek (R) will not run for Governor of Minnesota.

http://m.startribune.com/sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-re-election-not-governor-in-2018/423378013/

I don't know Minnesota Republicans beyond the kooky ones, the RINO ones, and ugh Norm Coleman; was Stanek considered a good potential candidate or a wacko?

South Dakota:

State senator minority leader Billie Sutton running for governor.

Interesting backstory. College rodeo star who was paralyzed in an accident.

In my opinion, he's a B-list candidate for the Dems. But better than Paula Hawks.

Who would be better except the obvious Stephanie Herseth?

Brendan Johnson or Jason Frerichs. Herseth might not even have as a good of a chance as many think, plus she just got a new job and might not want to leave it.

He was a terrific candidate. Barring Paulsen getting in probably instant front runner along Jeff Johnson

[ur=https://twitter.com/DanielStrauss4/status/869997317356761088l]MI: Colbeck in.[/url]

I was looking at his Stanek's Controversies section on Wikipedia and I don't know why anyone would consider him a terrific candidate.

OK-Gov: (https://twitter.com/MickCornett/status/870060217345560576) Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett (R) is running.

MI-GOV: Mark Hackel tweeted out the article 'Democrats create opening for Hackel in gov race'.

https://twitter.com/MarkHackel/status/870346972653289472

He'd be a solid choice. Not many Republicans with an urbanist background like him. As much as I hate the place, OKC under Cornett has been nothing but a success story

Gross.  I don't trust Hackel at all!

Speaking of Stanek, yea if he ran his campaign would've been very short.

http://www.mankatofreepress.com/news/local_news/son-of-hennepin-county-sheriff-charged-with-soliciting-a-minor/article_bf284c0e-4652-11e7-8d7a-c30b45078250.html

Dear lord!

Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan (MN-8) will NOT run for Minnesota Governor.

https://twitter.com/rachelsb/status/870746455098753024

Excellent news

Rep. Polis Running in CO

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/11/jared-polis-colorado-governor-race/

But why? Perlmutter is the superior candidate.

On the down-low....

....I have it from a reliable source that CT State Senator Tony Hwang (R) WILL NOT be running for governor next year, preferring to focus on a run for federal office (possibly Congress). 

So, the Crawford County Democratic Party held a picnic and invited a bunch of Dems, from local to state level. Josh Svaty and Carl Brewer were invited to speak as gubernatorial candidates, and Jim Ward was invited as minority leader. However, according to my friends who were at the event, Ward got up and gave a gubernatorial speech. So, odds are he's in.

Sorry, what state?

Kansas

()

new map

NV: Sisolak in. (https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-longtime-clark-county-politician-set-to-announce-bid-for-governor)

CT: Kennedy out. (https://twitter.com/gettinviggy/status/879366662495113216)

I'm pretty surprised by this, it seemed fairly likely that he would enter. Congrats, Kevin Lembo.

I guess you could say that the primary race is no longer in Lembo.

I'm sorry.

10/10

NV: Schwartz exploring, has an internal showing him close to Laxalt. (https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/heartened-by-poll-treasurer-dan-schwartz-seriously-considering-governor-bid-says-he-doesnt-fear-laxalt) Ralston has said before Schwartz wouldn't be a major threat to Laxalt in a primary. If Schwartz ran, he'd make it about NV/national conservatism.

Polis is an multi-million dollar selfish weirdo who doesn't really care about what other people are doing. I suspect he'll try to flail the "anti-establishment" banner despite, you know, being in Congress for ten years.

Ted Kennedy Jr. just said he will not be running for CT Governor in 2018.  :)

In all seriousness, TKII wants to be in the Senate when Blumenthal retires.

This. With the exception of Chris (and his sister Kathleen), the Kennedys have been known to prefer Senate to Governor.

Kevin Faulconer (R) just announced on his Facebook page that he will NOT run for Governor.

https://www.facebook.com/kevinfaulconer/

Glorious news!

****

I thought he was the best chance to avoid a D vs. D election

That certainly now appears more likely than before. This could also have Congressional implications, in that there is now probably no major Republican name at the top of the ticket to get Republicans out to vote (and possibly no Republican at all if it is D vs. D). Democrats could flip 7 seats in California alone.

That could very well happen.

New Mexico: State Sen. Joe Cervantes (D - Las Cruces) is in. (http://nmpolitics.net/index/2017/07/sen-cervantes-jumps-into-governors-race/)

Tony Evers for Wisconsin Gov? (https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/883112365742583809)

Nebraska may see an Independent - Bob Krist- mounting a campaign against Pete Ricketts:

http://columbusnewsteam.com/local-news/dems-playing-wait-and-see-on-krists-governor-talk/

Catch is, Krist would like the Dem to not run a nominee. I live there and it works for me.  Ricketts has been 'Brownback Lite'. Krist wold be a lot better.

Sounds like a Greg Orman type. Didn't work out so hot in Kansas...

^ Though no federal dynamic here, which arguably helped Roberts.

CO: Perlmutter drops out. (http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/10/ed-perlmutter-drop-out-colorado-governors-race/)

Larry Sharpe 2016 Libertarian party VP candidate and close runner up to Bill Weld (lost by 3.7%) in their separate nomination announced on July 12th he is running for governor in NY state. It is part of a 7-year plan to advance the profile of the party through national coverage of the NY Gubernatorial election. I don't think anyone has any pretenses of winning but with a strong fundraising campaign and possible entry into the debate that he can make 'King Andrew' Cuomo look bad and get major party status in the statewide elections with an eye on 2020 and beyond.

Right now I'd say he's the best that the LP has in terms of a figure I could get behind to advance liberty. He is definitely making the rounds to help others campaigns on local, state and national levels.

:(

This probably means we're gonna lose with Polis.

State Sen. Jack Latvala (R) is presumably in in Florida, though he's decided to wait a month to formally announce.

he's a relatively moderate Republican, right?

MI: Bernstein out. (https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/887337426422816772)

Any chance he runs for MI AG?

Yeah, Latvala's sane.

Businessman Andy Gronik is running for WI Governor.

Tony Evers just filed to run (http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-superintendent-tony-evers-files-to-run-for-governor/article_71d337ae-96eb-563b-a017-f5205b42b6e8.html). I think he'd be a solid candidate.

TN: Rep. Diane Black is officially running.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/08/02/diane-black-enters-race-governor-tennessee/530652001/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Good to see her leave the house.

Does anyone think Black could hurt the GOP's chances of holding the TN Governorship if she's the nominee? She's prone to verbal gaffes, including anti-Muslim comments.

()

This is how I see things shaking out in Nov. Dems net FL, IL, WI, ME, MD, NJ, NM and KS

Personally, I think Dems would pick up Michigan before they pick up Wisconsin. Sure, Walker isn't particularly popular, but Dems have a modest-at-best bench in WI. The MI GOP has been dogged by the Flint water crisis, Michigan hasn't elected two consecutive governors from the same party since the 1940s, and Stabenow's coattails should help the D nominee.

Also, if Hogan is going down in MD, it probably means Sununu in NH is in trouble. He's too conservative for NH.

What's more interesting will be to see if she boxes Beth Harwell out

Well, the irony is that Sununu is almost "too liberal" for New Hampshire Republican primary voters. All his opponents in 2016 primary were more conservative then he is, some - very much so...

Sununu is a moderate on abortion and Stabenow is no shoe in. Kidd Rock isnt a right wing GOP, he likes Emenim.

I am rooting for him.

You go into every thread talking about how you love Kid Rock. It's weird.

He isn't like Tom Brady. He helps minorities in DTW, even though he's an entertainer.

Ok.

The states political preference isnt gonna matter as much in state elections as oppose to PREZ. MI if Kid Rock becomes Senator will vote Dem in 2020 due to Gary Peters. But, something R leaning happened to MI in 2014 and 2016.😐

FL on other hand will be a tipper in 2020 due to PR statehood status.😁

This. Sununu's been pushing legislation on voter suppression, right to work, and distributing NH's electoral votes by congressional district (the latter two unsuccessfully) and supports Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris accord. Being moderate on social issues is pretty much a given in any Northeastern state. NH isn't a swing state like Ohio where most voters prefer moderation; it's a state where Democrats/Democratic leaners are further left than average (hence why Bernie Sanders won big there in the primary), while Republicans/Republican leaners are moderate to conservative.

Dems should go all out to defeat Walker. Whittier is untested and can lose. Baldwin coattails will help Dem gov nominee.

Diane Black is running. (http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/08/02/diane-black-enters-race-governor-tennessee/530652001/)

Not a gubernatorial election, but John Barrow is running for GA SoS:

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/09/25/barrow-aims-for-a-political-comeback-with-bid-for-georgia-statewide-office/ (http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/09/25/barrow-aims-for-a-political-comeback-with-bid-for-georgia-statewide-office/)

Republican Minority Leader Patricia Morgan is running (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/25/1700902/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-9-25?t=1506364921177#update-1506364921000) for Rhode Island governor. Kos also says that 2014 candidate and Cranston mayor Alan Fung is also most likely running, which means that Raimondo might benefit from a competitive and potentially brutal GOP primary.

Rockeymoore in. (https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/918575034657935360) She’s Rep. Cummings’s wife.

Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb and Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro are considering joining together to form a ticket against Governor Cuomo in 2018.

Source - http://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/kolb-molinaro-in-talks-to-form-gop-ticket-against-cuomo/article_6a553260-b2c1-11e7-9693-c7212e8e01d5.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share

Is there any reason to think they would do better than Generic R?

It's virtually a tag team of two status-quot NY Republicans, the party itself probably hoping that Paladino doesn't run his "Alt-Right" platform to create party divide.

Both Kolb and Molinaro are Trump-supporting Republicans, but Paladino obviously represents the nu-age, edgy, The_Donald-esque GOP, as compared to the standard.

They'd probably still lose, but maybe get 3-5 more % than usual for the GOP.

NV: Laxalt officially in. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xtDgd2QPfU)

FL-GOV: Levine to announce tomorrow

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2017/10/30/philip-levine-to-make-important-announcement-wednesday-in-miami/

Excellent. He will further the messy primary on the D side and, should he win, would be a horrible GE candidate because he cannot rally the base nor is he inspiring enough to draw people to him.

I think FL is a state where Dems need a self funder, Graham is a decent candidate but she will get badly outspend.

Graham is an incredible fundraiser. She would not be outspent. Levine can self fund, but not to the extent of Scott; he would need lots of help.

With the 2017 election over, it's time to look to the 2018 governor's race in CT.  This is the list of who I hear will be running. 

Democrats:

Dan Drew, Mayor of Middletown, CT
Jacey Wyatt, businesswoman
Joe Ganim, Mayor of Bridgeport, CT (still unconfirmed; he was trying to get public financing, but because Ganim's a former felon, state ruled he can't get it)
Susan Bysiewicz, former CT Secretary of the State (potential; I don't think she's going to run)

On the Democratic side, Lt. Governor Nancy Wyman has declined to run, as have US Congressmen Jim Himes and Joe Courtney.  US Congresswoman Elizabeth Esty will not be running either.  State AG George Jepsen, Ted Kennedy Jr., and State Comptroller Kevin Lembo have also declined to run. 

Republicans:

Tim Herbst, former First Selectman of Trumbull, CT
David Walker, former US Comptroller General
Mike Handler, Director of Administration in Stamford, CT
Mike Lauretti, Mayor of Shelton, CT
Joe Visconti, former councilman of West Hartford, CT (and perennial Independent candidate)
Peter Lumaj, Mayor of Greenwich, CT (potential; probably won't, as he just won re-election)
John McKinney, former State Senate Minority Leader
Tony Hwang, State Representative (potential; my sources tell me he is looking at running for Congress, and so won't run for governor)
Erin Stewart, Mayor of New Britain, CT (potential)
Four more minor candidates

As far as Republicans are concerned, State Senate Republican President Pro Tempore Len Fasano has declined to run, as has former State Senator Rob Kane.  State Senator Joe Markley will be running for Lt. Governor, and thus has also declined to run. 

As you can see, the race is wide open right now. 

didn't levine literally weigh the option of running as a spoiler independent or even as a Republican? what a bizarre dude.

So it sounds like the real Dem Primary race is between Drew and Wyatt? Or is Wyatt just "some guy" (or gal, rather)?

Wyatt is a nobody. Right now I feel like it'll be mostly between Drew and Mattei.

Yeah, Wyatt is one of those "perennial candidate" women.  :: shrugs ::

CO: Brauchler drops down to AG. (https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/930070936857952256)

MI: Calley in. (http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/28/brian-calley-republican-race-governor-2018/897616001/)

Endorsed! She won't win, but she'd have been miles better than Labrador.

NYS Assemblyman Brian Kolb has launched a 2018 campaign to presumably face Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Conservative Republican can't win NY governorship. If only Democrats nominate "their own version" of Roy Moore...

I could see Cuomo being a perv, but the D bench is so strong and Cuomo wouldn’t have anything like the Bannon machine keeping him in the race. If allegations were to come out, he’d easily — and quickly — be replaced.

Done :P

Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy
 (http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/article_063d2734-e5bf-11e7-9172-a7cbaace04f2.html)

Only candidate I could see giving JBE trouble is Scalise, may be more inclined to run if GOP is in the minority.

Edwards 2020!

Danggg, yenno I always wondered what would it be like if the John Edwards of NC decided to run for some prosecuting office, but ig not. Man I’m getting old when different John Edwards’s are being considered as presidential contenders 😩

He's going to be tough to beat for sure.

Belmentum!

Also.... hopefully a county wide landslide for Edwards against a nobody Republican helps make state legislature gains. The LA legislature is not as lopsided as most red states

In NO or BR suburbs - quite possible. But Democrats almost surely will have problems in rapidly swinging to the right Acadiana (and around it), where Republicans are favored to gain seats after "veterans" retire because of term limits. Clinton had abysmal percentages (lower then 30, in some cases - about 10) in many districts there, and even local Democrats will be hard pressed.

Good news for Svaty:

‘I will remain Governor,’ Brownback tweets after Trump nomination stalls
 (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article192611284.html)

Huh. I'd never thought about him, but you're right.

My best friend at law school is from Ladue (a conservative, fairly racist suburb of St. Louis which happens to also have a higher median household income than any other city in the state) whose friends from Missouri are almost all very right-wing Republicans* and he says that the opinions of most Republicans (including hardcore Trumpists) he knows in suburban St. Louis regarding Grietens range from "meh, that guy seems sketchy but I can live with him" to "seriously, f*** that guy, he's incompetent and only cares about running for President."  This anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I think Grietens could actually have some real trouble if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2020 (Kander might work, but he's been on TV a lot and could be painted as having become a media talking head, so we might want someone new).  Grietens seems to have had a pretty rough year as Governor while simultaneously going Full Jindal before he even won re-election.

*IDK if it's just Ladue, but I think Democrats have a bit of a heavier lift in Missouri if what he's said is true than many other states.  It sounds like Kansas City's suburbs (in Missouri and especially Kansas, which apparently has the more educated/affluent portions of the Kansas City metro for the most part) are already filled with Republicans planning to vote Democratic for Congress because of Trump (and that was before SALT) which is part of why I'm bullish on our chances in KS-3 with Neidermann despite Yoder being a strong incumbent.  However, if my friend is to be believed (and I suspect he's right about this), it sounds like due to out-of-control racial tensions** the white suburbanites in the Republican parts of St. Louis County aren't swinging quite has hard against the GOP as most suburbs and Trump's race-baiting schtick still works pretty well in the St. Louis suburbs in a way it doesn't in most other suburbs outside of the cultural south (KC, MO and the St. Louis metro aren't really culturally southern the way somewhere like the bootheel is).  While it might not matter as much in turnout-driven special elections, it probably means Wagner isn't going anywhere despite the Democrats having at least one unexpectedly decent candidate running here and could also be a problem for McCaskill, come to think of it.

**Mainly due to a collection of fringe local activists claiming to be part of the Black Lives Matter movement despite having few actual ties to it and the suburban police departments actively  going out of there way to harass/threaten random suburban whites and African-Americans respectively for pretty much no reason beyond tit-for-tat games.

Well, now Greitens has a far bigger problem on his hands. Do you think he'll make it to 2020?

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/cynthia-nixon-challenge-cuomo-democratic-primary-article-1.3766162

Speaking of Missouri, does anyone know about the MO Dem Party chair Stephen Webber? He's served in the state house in the past, and under his watch the Dems nearly won multiple statewide offices despite Trump's megacoattails in the presidential race. He's also young, attractive, and was a sergeant in the Marine Corps. Electorally he strikes me as a Kander 2.0 just in case the original screws up somewhere along the way

Blue Wave imminent for South Dakota

Odd. But I guess that's possible if South Dakota is angered by the corruption referendum issue, or he's running literally the best campaign in the country.

Holy s**t, that'd be a ton of money for a Republican in SD. Someone get Kamala on the line!

Can't find Noem's numbers, but State Attorney General Jackley raising over 1,000,000 in 2017. The current governor raised 880,000 in 2017- and he isn't even running, so his money likely goes to the South Dakota GOP.

Greitens isn’t gonna make it through the primary, methinks.

To the extent of my knowledge, Kander is still pretty well liked in MO. I think that as a national rising star, he has money and name recognition. he even has 20% name recognition nationally which is better than most former MO SOSs can say. If he runs for president or declines for some other reason (Maybe a house bid) than Chris Koster could probably win a rematch,  Nicole Galloway perhaps. WLC or Emmanuel Cleaver maybe could be strong but they don't have much appeal to the racist or rural places. Same with Bruce Franks. As long as we don't nominate Charles Wheeler we should have an advantage.

Check out my recent on congressional recruitment thread

Dutchess, NY county executive Marcus Molinaro is rumored to be entering the GOP Primary to face Governor Cuomo in November; after the GOP field was seemingly down to John DeFrancisco.

http://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2018/03/06/itch-alert--actress-cynthia-nixon-laying-groundwork-in-run-for-governor

Bye bye Walker (among others)

https://www.twitter.com/jaredleopold/status/973745176035381248

And yet Scott and Baker seem to be extremely entrenched, and their Democratic opposition so far is very weak. So, candidate views and qualities still matter, not PVI only...

Not to mention the governorships of states like Kansas and Oklahoma are significantly more competitive than some of these states (South Carolina, Texas, Massachusetts, and Vermont namely).

^ Exactly so.

Plus, National trends are usually somewhat less impactful (though still relevant) in statewide elections.

Evers is anything but weak. He's easily going to be the best nominee set against Walker so far and in a much more favorable environment to boot.

He has to be careful about gun control though (given yesterday's rally), given he needs enough WWC people to turn out to vote.

When did Phil Scott change his last name to Walker?

Sir he said "And yet Scott and Baker seem to be extremely entrenched" Not Walker Smolt assumed he meant Walker

There is no NH megathread, so I'll post it here: Angry White Women Molly Kelly will enter the NH gov race tomorrow.

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-democrat-molly-kelly-to-announce-run-for-governor/19724585

GG

Sununununununun is done

Oh, there is a NH thread for this race, I posted it there. :) Thanks for posting this btw, this is splendid news.

Tarl Warwick has announced his candidacy for Governor of Vermont on YT

Sen. Kennedy is considering a 2019 run for governor of Louisiana:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/sen-john-kennedy-weighing-gubernatorial-run

Oh come on, dude. You're like, one of the few southern Republican senators who doesn't completely suck. Leave fellow conservative JBE alone and stay where you're at.

FL: Patrick Murphy and David Jolly are considering a 3rd party ticket. (https://twitter.com/learyreports/status/988563687320498176)

I would accuse them of being spoilers but I don't think any Floridian actually cares about either of them enough.

Wtf

Ok if they do they better switch spots. I'd rather have Jolly than Murphy. Murphy was a pretty bad Senate candidate. Jolly, however, is great.

Update: Murphy would run in the Dem primary. (https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/988577664574386176)

it's very shocking that Patrick Murphy is a total dummy, we totally didn't learn that when he butchered his 2016 run for Senate.

Well that's a stupid strategy

EDIT: I guess so is running as an indy in a statewide Floridian election :P

It's funny because it's true.

Well, what alternative exist for centrists (real), who are basically ignored and villified in BOTH major political parties? To run as Indies.....

MA: Warren drops out. (https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/04/26/setti-warren-end-campaign-for-governor/vQqKoCGuCBYBuFzReqG2EO/story.html?event=event25)

Forgot what thread this was and was immensely confused.

Same

Roy Cooper will probably win in 2019


Good news: NC Dems on track to flip the General Assembly:

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP


BIG

The GOP's supermajorities in (both?) chambers are going to be gone imo, but an actual flip of both chambers under the current R-gerrymandered lines is going to be very hard to attain. If the VA state house didn't really flip in 2017, why would the NC state house and senate flip this year?
Also, important to note, NC is pretty inelastic...unlike WI.

This upcoming legislative election has the most Democrats running ever. I think there is a real good chance it can flip

I'm really curious what a D+7 result would do to the legislature, but I think I have to agree with TimTurner in that flipping it with just D+7 doesn't seem possible. There is also precedent for this. Michigan's state House didn't flip in 2012 even with an almost D+8 popular vote win. Republicans walked away with a comfortable if not slimmer majority. The only difference between an R+8 pv in 2010 and a D+8 win in 2012 in Michigan was Democrats gaining 4 seats. That's literally all they got with wave-like numbers.

To use a more recent example, in Virginia 2017, Democrats flipped only one or two Trump seats with a 9 point PV win (skewed maybe by more seats w/o GOP candidates). Granted, Democrats flipped 15 seats, but almost all of them were Clinton seats. In order to flip the NC GA, Democrats would have to flip dozens of Trump seats. It's hard to see that happening, tbh.

The Virginia HoD had a higher efficiency gap than the current NC General Assembly. NC's is around 12%, while VA's was nearly 20%:

()

Despite the gigantic efficiency gap, and with the experts over at DDHQ giving the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping the day of the election...the Dems nearly flipped the legislature until the courts stole 1 seat. One of the major reasons it flipped is because the Democrats fielded a candidate for nearly every seat in VA.

Now, for the first time in history, NC has fielded a Democratic candidate for every legislative race and having a candidate for every seat in a terrible environment tends to cancel out the efficiency gap of gerrymandering:


If the VA HoD could (nearly) flip with a 18% efficiency gap....then the NC legislature could flip with a 12% gap

Of course....it may not flip but I think it stands a really good chance.

FL: POLITICO hints that Fratrick might be staffing up. (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2018/05/03/murphy-for-gov-calls-start-rubio-gives-pelosi-a-boost-sun-sentinels-frontpage-misfire-gaetz-gets-the-middle-school-treatment-whats-fdot-hiding-in-fatal-bridge-collapse-267593)

how many different brands of centrist do we need in the race for Florida Governor?

Laura Ellsworth, one of the three major GOP candidates for Governor in Pennsylvania was campaigning at my precinct. Seemed nice. Definitely the sane one of the three.

What county/city?

Westmoreland

Turnout is pretty low. My Precinct is really republican, but I noticed a lot more Ds voting than usual.

Interesting, Democrats still have a small advantage in voter registeration advantage in Westmorland, but that is still good to hear.

FL: Murphy's lined up $$$, is thinking about staff and will decide within a month. (https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/05/17/millions-of-dollars-committed-murphy-enters-new-phase-of-bipartisan-bid-with-jolly-424566)

NY GOP nominee Marcus Molinaro announces failed State Senate candidate Julie Killian as his running mate.

Lost her election in a fairly blue district, but, I think someone like Joseph Holland, John Cahill, or Nicole Malliotakis would've done far more for name familiarity. Disappointed.

Patrick Murphy won't run for FL governor, will endorse Gwen Graham (https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/06/07/murphy-wont-run-for-governor-plans-graham-endorsement-453675)

I guess he is content with his career lying about being an accountant.