Talk Elections

General Politics => U.S. General Discussion => Topic started by: Mr. Morden on November 17, 2016, 11:18:16 AM



Title: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 17, 2016, 11:18:16 AM
Gallup has what I think is the first post-election poll of Trump's favorability rating, showing a bounce for him (but still in the red, well behind where previous newly elected presidents have been):

http://www.gallup.com/poll/197576/trump-favorability-trails-presidents-elect.aspx

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Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: Confused Democrat on November 17, 2016, 11:21:57 AM
I'm sure his unfavorables will rise again once he starts actually governing.



Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 17, 2016, 11:22:24 AM
Poll was conducted Nov. 9-13.  They have him at 82% favorable among Republicans, 39% among Indies, and 10% among Democrats.  All are improvements over the last poll done pre-election.

Here are the fav/unfav numbers of past presidents immediately after their elections, as measured by Gallup:

Obama 68/27
GW Bush 59/36
Clinton 58/35

So all were at least +23.


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: KingSweden on November 17, 2016, 11:46:50 AM
Poll was conducted Nov. 9-13.  They have him at 82% favorable among Republicans, 39% among Indies, and 10% among Democrats.  All are improvements over the last poll done pre-election.

Here are the fav/unfav numbers of past presidents immediately after their elections, as measured by Gallup:

Obama 68/27
GW Bush 59/36
Clinton 58/35

So all were at least +23.


He'll have a very short honeymoon


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: The_Doctor on November 17, 2016, 01:26:08 PM
But he's God Emperor! :P


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 17, 2016, 02:20:47 PM
I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: President Johnson on November 17, 2016, 03:56:51 PM
LOL, The Donald begins his term underwater. Great job!


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: KingSweden on November 17, 2016, 04:05:04 PM
I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

I think Senate Rs like usual have a better read on this


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 18, 2016, 02:03:13 PM
Yougov has a new poll out too:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j20pkfe7a0/econToplines.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Hillary Clinton 43/52% for -9%
Donald Trump 41/53% for -12%

That’s a bit of an improvement from the pre-election #s for both candidates.

Also in the poll, they asked people who either voted 3rd party or did not vote: “If you had to choose between them, who would you have preferred to have win the election?”:

Clinton 41%
Trump 36%
no preference 23%

Other questions…

Do you think the election was rigged?
yes 20%
no 55%
not sure 25%

How good a president do you think Donald Trump will be?
excellent 17%
good 23%
fair 22%
poor 38%

How qualified is Donald Trump to be president?
very qualified 19%
somewhat qualified 22%
slightly qualified 14%
not qualified 45%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on November 19, 2016, 09:11:05 AM
Yougov has a new poll out too:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j20pkfe7a0/econToplines.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Hillary Clinton 43/52% for -9%
Donald Trump 41/53% for -12%

That’s a bit of an improvement from the pre-election #s for both candidates.

Also in the poll, they asked people who either voted 3rd party or did not vote: “If you had to choose between them, who would you have preferred to have win the election?”:

Clinton 41%
Trump 36%
no preference 23%

Other questions…

Do you think the election was rigged?
yes 20%
no 55%
not sure 25%

How good a president do you think Donald Trump will be?
excellent 17%
good 23%
fair 22%
poor 38%

How qualified is Donald Trump to be president?
very qualified 19%
somewhat qualified 22%
slightly qualified 14%
not qualified 45%


Almost half are open to the fact that the election was rigged.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 19, 2016, 02:05:49 PM
Remember that Bill Clinton's favorables were in the water during Lewinsky but his approvals (different thing) were sky high.

Though it's perfectly possible that Trump could have even worse approvals than favorables.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Deblano on November 19, 2016, 02:23:08 PM
Pick Your Poison: The Election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: politicallefty on November 20, 2016, 07:53:22 AM
Yougov has a new poll out too:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j20pkfe7a0/econToplines.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Hillary Clinton 43/52% for -9%
Donald Trump 41/53% for -12%

That’s a bit of an improvement from the pre-election #s for both candidates.

Also interesting that those numbers are largely in line with Hillary Clinton's popular vote plurality (over 2 million votes and perhaps a 2% margin).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 20, 2016, 08:12:28 AM
()

These numbers are far better than I expected them to be.


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 20, 2016, 06:57:03 PM
I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

Trump isn't going to do any of that, and congressional R's won't be able to get it through.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 20, 2016, 07:50:04 PM
https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM4_26_SCALE/type/smallest/dates/20161001-20161118/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

51%
49%

I take issue with any poll adding up to 100%, but it should be stated thats:

51% - Unfavorable
49% - Favorable


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 20, 2016, 07:53:10 PM
If the Democrats can't figure out how to keep Trump's ratings fairly negative, they should really just disband.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 20, 2016, 08:00:52 PM
If the Democrats can't figure out how to keep Trump's ratings fairly negative, they should really just disband.

The American peoples views are beyond what the democratic party controls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on November 20, 2016, 10:03:17 PM
I'm not worried right now. If I am not mistaken, this is supposed to be the honeymoon bounce, so his approval ratings would go higher. I expect that his highest point will be 53 approve - 45 disapprove immediately after the inauguration, and that it will be all downhill from there.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 20, 2016, 11:09:24 PM
https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM4_26_SCALE/type/smallest/dates/20161001-20161118/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

51%
49%

I take issue with any poll adding up to 100%, but it should be stated thats:

51% - Unfavorable
49% - Favorable

Basically the margin by which he lost the popular vote. Not surprising.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 20, 2016, 11:46:49 PM
https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM4_26_SCALE/type/smallest/dates/20161001-20161118/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

51%
49%

I take issue with any poll adding up to 100%, but it should be stated thats:

51% - Unfavorable
49% - Favorable

Basically the margin by which he lost the popular vote. Not surprising.
Remember, Reuters gave Clinton positive favorables at several points in the past couple months.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 21, 2016, 07:32:37 AM
Poll: Trump's popularity soars after election (POLITICO/Morning Consult poll)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-popular-poll-231694

Went from 37/61 to 46/46

Obama went from 50/48 to 54/43


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 21, 2016, 01:21:23 PM
Poll: Trump's popularity soars after election (POLITICO/Morning Consult poll)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-popular-poll-231694

Went from 37/61 to 46/46

Obama went from 50/48 to 54/43

More from that poll:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/161108_crosstabs_POLITICO_v2_KD-2.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Pence 47/34% for +13%
Giuliani 42/34% for +8%
Paul Ryan 38/37% for +1%
Trump 46/46% for +/-0
Keith Ellison 16/16% for +/-0
Democrats in Congress 42/43% for -1%
Schumer 23/24% for -1%
Sessions 18/20% for -2%
Priebus 21/26% for -5%
Republicans in Congress 39/46% for -7%
Breitbart 16/27% for -11%
Steve Bannon 18/30% for -12%
McConnell 21/34% for -13%
Pelosi 30/45% for -15%

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -6
Northeast: 0
South: +6
West: -7

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -28

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -5
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: 0


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: President Johnson on November 21, 2016, 02:28:21 PM
So there's a small chance he doesn't begin his term underwater?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 22, 2016, 08:30:13 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/22/politics/donald-trump-presidency-poll-transition/index.html

CNN
Trump fav 47/50
Trump approval of transition 46/45


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 22, 2016, 11:21:10 AM
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11222016_U77dqm.pdf/

Quinnipiac

Trump approval  44/46
Optimistic/Pessimistic on a Trump presidency  59/37
Trump should stop using twitter   35/59
Trump better president than Obama 41/40


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 22, 2016, 11:25:48 AM

Favorability, not approval.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 22, 2016, 11:30:16 AM
The gender gap in that Quinnipiac poll is about the same as it was in the election exit poll.

men
favorable 50%
unfavorable 39%

women
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

Also, fav/unfav %:
Pence 42/31% for +11%
Melania Trump 34/23% for +11%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 22, 2016, 12:48:05 PM
This isn’t favorability exactly, but Pew’s poll has some numbers on Trump:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/low-marks-for-major-players-in-2016-election-including-the-winner/

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13% of Trump’s own voters are “uneasy” about Trump’s election, while 5% are “scared”:

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Voters were mostly dissatisfied with their choices for the first time since this poll was asked:

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Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on November 22, 2016, 04:26:33 PM
I want to meet the 5% who are scared of Trump yet vOted for him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on November 22, 2016, 04:58:38 PM
Do numbers usually keep going up or do they stabilize?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on November 23, 2016, 01:33:59 PM
What are his approval ratings broken down by electoral votes?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 23, 2016, 06:23:01 PM
I want to meet the 5% who are scared of Trump yet vOted for him.

     Getting small subsets to say weird things is common in polls. I remember a poll once where 9% of atheists said that the law should be based on the Bible.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on November 23, 2016, 08:36:14 PM
I want to meet the 5% who are scared of Trump yet vOted for him.

Based on this

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

it seems only 2% of those who were scared of a Trump victory voted Trump.  BTW 1% of those scared of Clinton victory voted Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on November 23, 2016, 10:01:22 PM
I want to meet the 5% who are scared of Trump yet vOted for him.

     Getting small subsets to say weird things is common in polls. I remember a poll once where 9% of atheists said that the law should be based on the Bible.

Just because you disagree with the reasoning doesn't mean you can't appreciate the result. For instance, kashrut (kosher) makes excellent sense as a dietary regime, especially for a pre-pathology culture. Pork may be tasty, but it does tend to be one of our less safe meats to eat because we share a number of mutual parasites.

As for that poll, the 5% were probably more scared of Clinton than Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on November 23, 2016, 11:29:06 PM
New Quinnipiac poll is terrible for Trump's agenda:

Despite Donald Trump's victory, American voters are at odds with the president-elect on several key issues, agreeing with the U.S. Supreme Court Roe v. Wade decision 67 - 30 percent and opposing a wall along the Mexican border 55 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. 

In fact, support for illegal immigrants being allowed to stay in the U.S., with a path to citizenship, 60 percent, is higher than in any survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University Poll since the question was first asked four years ago. Today, another 12 percent of American voters say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay, but not become citizens and 25 percent say they should be deported

American voters oppose other possible Trump initiatives:
67 - 29 percent against lowering taxes on the wealthy;
48 - 38 percent against removing regulations on businesses and corporations;
57 - 38 percent against making it easier for people to carry guns;
60 - 32 percent against "reducing taxes across the board even if it means increasing the deficit."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2406

And he's *already* underwater before he's done any of this


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 23, 2016, 11:40:27 PM
New Quinnipiac poll is terrible for Trump's agenda:

Despite Donald Trump's victory, American voters are at odds with the president-elect on several key issues, agreeing with the U.S. Supreme Court Roe v. Wade decision 67 - 30 percent and opposing a wall along the Mexican border 55 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. 

In fact, support for illegal immigrants being allowed to stay in the U.S., with a path to citizenship, 60 percent, is higher than in any survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University Poll since the question was first asked four years ago. Today, another 12 percent of American voters say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay, but not become citizens and 25 percent say they should be deported

American voters oppose other possible Trump initiatives:
67 - 29 percent against lowering taxes on the wealthy;
48 - 38 percent against removing regulations on businesses and corporations;
57 - 38 percent against making it easier for people to carry guns;
60 - 32 percent against "reducing taxes across the board even if it means increasing the deficit."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2406

Highly suspicious of those Roe vs. Wade Numbers. I expect people simply don't understand what it is. Gallup's annual abortion poll found the pro-choice side ahead by a scant 1% this year, 47-46: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on November 23, 2016, 11:54:50 PM
Apparently that means American voters want liberal policies to stay...LOL Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on November 24, 2016, 08:29:58 AM
Highly suspicious of those Roe vs. Wade Numbers. I expect people simply don't understand what it is. Gallup's annual abortion poll found the pro-choice side ahead by a scant 1% this year, 47-46: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

What's to be suspicious of? The median position on abortion in this country is in favor of additional restrictions, but not a outright ban. Additional restrictions on second trimester abortions while leaving first trimester abortions as available as they currently are is what the polls have been showing what people want for some time now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on November 24, 2016, 10:42:32 AM
Apparently that means American voters want liberal policies to stay...LOL Trump.

Didn’t the Trumpster say during the 60-minutes interview, that he doesn’t see the election outcome as a rejection of President Obama and his policies?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 24, 2016, 02:37:54 PM
Highly suspicious of those Roe vs. Wade Numbers. I expect people simply don't understand what it is. Gallup's annual abortion poll found the pro-choice side ahead by a scant 1% this year, 47-46: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

What's to be suspicious of? The median position on abortion in this country is in favor of additional restrictions, but not a outright ban. Additional restrictions on second trimester abortions while leaving first trimester abortions as available as they currently are is what the polls have been showing what people want for some time now.

First Trimester ends after week 13, Roe protects abortion through the 20th week. So by that measure, Roe is to the political left of the country.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 24, 2016, 06:12:14 PM
Apparently that means American voters want liberal policies to stay...LOL Trump.

Hence Trump was elected.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 24, 2016, 06:27:30 PM
Highly suspicious of those Roe vs. Wade Numbers. I expect people simply don't understand what it is. Gallup's annual abortion poll found the pro-choice side ahead by a scant 1% this year, 47-46: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

What's to be suspicious of? The median position on abortion in this country is in favor of additional restrictions, but not a outright ban. Additional restrictions on second trimester abortions while leaving first trimester abortions as available as they currently are is what the polls have been showing what people want for some time now.

First Trimester ends after week 13, Roe protects abortion through the 20th week. So by that measure, Roe is to the political left of the country.

I suspect many people don't know that.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on November 25, 2016, 09:50:06 AM
Highly suspicious of those Roe vs. Wade Numbers. I expect people simply don't understand what it is. Gallup's annual abortion poll found the pro-choice side ahead by a scant 1% this year, 47-46: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

What's to be suspicious of? The median position on abortion in this country is in favor of additional restrictions, but not a outright ban. Additional restrictions on second trimester abortions while leaving first trimester abortions as available as they currently are is what the polls have been showing what people want for some time now.

First Trimester ends after week 13, Roe protects abortion through the 20th week. So by that measure, Roe is to the political left of the country.

I suspect many people don't know that.
Indeed.  Besides, Roe already got pulled back by Planned Parenthood v. Casey so at this point using it in a poll is just a shorthand for whether a person believes that abortion should be legal for some unspecified portion of a pregnancy, not any specific set of rules.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on November 25, 2016, 10:05:21 AM
There's a long history of supporting GOP presidential candidates and GOP candidates without necessarily supporting their policies. Americans are weirdly schizophrenic like that. But the gap also means the Democrats remain competitive, and win votes based on that.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on November 25, 2016, 02:16:00 PM
Highly suspicious of those Roe vs. Wade Numbers. I expect people simply don't understand what it is. Gallup's annual abortion poll found the pro-choice side ahead by a scant 1% this year, 47-46: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

What's to be suspicious of? The median position on abortion in this country is in favor of additional restrictions, but not a outright ban. Additional restrictions on second trimester abortions while leaving first trimester abortions as available as they currently are is what the polls have been showing what people want for some time now.

First Trimester ends after week 13, Roe protects abortion through the 20th week. So by that measure, Roe is to the political left of the country.

I suspect many people don't know that.
Indeed.  Besides, Roe already got pulled back by Planned Parenthood v. Casey so at this point using it in a poll is just a shorthand for whether a person believes that abortion should be legal for some unspecified portion of a pregnancy, not any specific set of rules.
Still then the question is whether in general a girl needs the Sheriff's (or whether the sheriff will always be involved) permission to get an abortion, not a parent's or even a second "professional's" permission (or anyone's)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on December 01, 2016, 07:20:56 PM
Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 02, 2016, 11:58:38 AM
Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf)

They have….

Trump 40/54% for -14%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%
Jill Stein 19/43% for -24%

Compared to their last poll (taken right after the election), Clinton’s popularity is down.  Trump is down too, albeit just slightly (-14, as compared to the previous -12).

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -14
Northeast: -10
South: -8
West: -25

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -75
Hispanics: -33

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -16
$50-100k: -6
over $100k: -14

()

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: user12345 on December 02, 2016, 03:23:49 PM
Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf)

They have….

Trump 40/54% for -14%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%
Jill Stein 19/43% for -24%

Compared to their last poll (taken right after the election), Clinton’s popularity is down.  Trump is down too, albeit just slightly (-14, as compared to the previous -12).

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -14
Northeast: -10
South: -8
West: -25

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -75
Hispanics: -33

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -16
$50-100k: -6
over $100k: -14

()

()

26% of Americans are out of their minds. Sad to see that Hillary number so high on the belief it was rigged. But lol at the 12% of Trump people thinking it was rigged. Must have been those 3 million illegals that voted ;).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 02, 2016, 04:12:53 PM
26% of Americans are out of their minds. Sad to see that Hillary number so high on the belief it was rigged. But lol at the 12% of Trump people thinking it was rigged. Must have been those 3 million illegals that voted ;).

It's not clear to me what people mean when they tell a pollster that they think the election was "rigged".  The way Trump was using the phrase during the campaign, he sometimes just meant that the media was biased against him, which is distinct from there being a conspiracy to not count the votes properly.  Someone who doesn't think the electoral college is fair might also say it was "rigged" in that sense--that the person who received the most votes didn't win.  Which again, is distinct from thinking that there was a conspiracy to tamper with the vote tallies.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on December 03, 2016, 09:22:26 AM
Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf)

They have….

Trump 40/54% for -14%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%
Jill Stein 19/43% for -24%

Compared to their last poll (taken right after the election), Clinton’s popularity is down.  Trump is down too, albeit just slightly (-14, as compared to the previous -12).

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -14
Northeast: -10
South: -8
West: -25

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -75
Hispanics: -33

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -16
$50-100k: -6
over $100k: -14

()

()

26% of Americans are out of their minds. Sad to see that Hillary number so high on the belief it was rigged. But lol at the 12% of Trump people thinking it was rigged. Must have been those 3 million illegals that voted ;).

He is still pretty far underwater...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 04, 2016, 08:41:54 PM
Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf)

They have….

Trump 40/54% for -14%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%
Jill Stein 19/43% for -24%

Compared to their last poll (taken right after the election), Clinton’s popularity is down.  Trump is down too, albeit just slightly (-14, as compared to the previous -12).

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -14
Northeast: -10
South: -8
West: -25

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -75
Hispanics: -33

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -16
$50-100k: -6
over $100k: -14

()

()

26% of Americans are out of their minds. Sad to see that Hillary number so high on the belief it was rigged. But lol at the 12% of Trump people thinking it was rigged. Must have been those 3 million illegals that voted ;).

He is still pretty far underwater...

But we know from the election results that many of those who dislike him are willing to vote for him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 05, 2016, 01:26:31 PM
Sienna College poll of New York, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 1:

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY1216_Crosstabs.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Schumer 67/23% for +44%
Obama 63/33% for +30%
Gillibrand 51/22% for +29%
Cuomo 56/36% for +20%
Pence 41/40% for +1%
de Blasio 35/45% for -10%
Trump 41/53% for -12%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on December 05, 2016, 06:16:11 PM
Nov 29th YouGov favorablity rating:

Unfavorable - 54%
Favorable - 40%
DK - 6%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9ufc2hsirx/tabs_OP_Recount_20161130.pdf)

They have….

Trump 40/54% for -14%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%
Jill Stein 19/43% for -24%

Compared to their last poll (taken right after the election), Clinton’s popularity is down.  Trump is down too, albeit just slightly (-14, as compared to the previous -12).

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -14
Northeast: -10
South: -8
West: -25

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +8
blacks: -75
Hispanics: -33

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -16
$50-100k: -6
over $100k: -14

()

()

26% of Americans are out of their minds. Sad to see that Hillary number so high on the belief it was rigged. But lol at the 12% of Trump people thinking it was rigged. Must have been those 3 million illegals that voted ;).

He is still pretty far underwater...

But we know from the election results that many of those who dislike him are willing to vote for him.
The election was about Hillary and Change. Can he win as the status quo candidate?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 05, 2016, 11:48:15 PM
Blank map. Favorability:

(
)

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

(
)

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 06, 2016, 11:21:13 AM
Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey, conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 4:

Trump fav/unfav %:
38/51% for -13%

Huge gender gap…
among men: 49/39% for +10%
among women: 29/61% for -32%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 06, 2016, 11:30:12 AM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted Dec. 1-2:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/161201_topline_Politico_v3_AP-2.pdf
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/161201_crosstabs_Politico_v3_AP-1-4.pdf

Trump 48% favorable 48% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: 0
Northeast: -4
South: +10
West: -8

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +9
blacks: -49
Hispanics: -16

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -4
$50-100k: +11
over $100k: +1

9% of Clinton voters and 29% of Johnson/Stein/McMullin voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  5% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 06, 2016, 12:14:43 PM
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:

(
)

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

(
)

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 06, 2016, 12:16:59 PM
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:

(
)

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

(
)

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  




You forgot the Sienna College poll of New York:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5421867#msg5421867

And you also colored in the wrong map.  This is favorability, not job approval rating.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 07, 2016, 06:43:33 AM
Majority of Americans Say Trump Can Keep Businesses, Poll Shows

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-07/majority-of-americans-say-trump-can-keep-businesses-poll-shows

Trump fav  50/43

If election held again Trump 40 Clinton 36 Other 17

37% say U.S. headed in right direction, while 49% say it’s wrong; August survey showed 25%-68%

51% say they’re mostly or very confident Trump will put U.S. interests ahead of his company, family interests when dealing with foreign leaders while 47% say mostly or very skeptical

26% say Trump should sell all businesses so neither he nor family could profit from actions while in office; 69% say that would go too far

48%, say Obamacare should be repealed only with replacement; 27% say leave law alone; 19% say repeal first


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: LLR on December 07, 2016, 07:26:14 AM
Majority of Americans Say Trump Can Keep Businesses, Poll Shows

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-07/majority-of-americans-say-trump-can-keep-businesses-poll-shows

Trump fav  50/43

If election held again Trump 40 Clinton 36 Other 17

37% say U.S. headed in right direction, while 49% say it’s wrong; August survey showed 25%-68%

51% say they’re mostly or very confident Trump will put U.S. interests ahead of his company, family interests when dealing with foreign leaders while 47% say mostly or very skeptical

26% say Trump should sell all businesses so neither he nor family could profit from actions while in office; 69% say that would go too far

48%, say Obamacare should be repealed only with replacement; 27% say leave law alone; 19% say repeal first

No, a majority of Americans say that his family should not sell all their businesses. Big difference, in that one is legal and one isn't.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 07, 2016, 09:12:22 AM
GWU/Battleground national poll, conducted Nov. 28 - Dec. 1:

https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-questionnaire.pdf
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-crosstabs.pdf

Pence 44/37% for +7%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Hillary Clinton 42/55% for -13%

They also have tiny subsamples on the largest states (fewer than 100 people, except for CA, so the MoE is huge):

Trump fav/unfav% in…
FL: 59/33% for +26%
TX: 52/44% for +8%
NY: 42/56% for -14%
CA: 34/58% for -24%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on December 07, 2016, 12:04:19 PM

This, my friends, is why we need to restore the Fairness Doctrine.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on December 07, 2016, 12:18:22 PM
GWU/Battleground national poll, conducted Nov. 28 - Dec. 1:

https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-questionnaire.pdf
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-crosstabs.pdf

Pence 44/37% for +7%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Hillary Clinton 42/55% for -13%

They also have tiny subsamples on the largest states (fewer than 100 people, except for CA, so the MoE is huge):

Trump fav/unfav% in…
FL: 59/33% for +26%
TX: 52/44% for +8%
NY: 42/56% for -14%
CA: 34/58% for -24%


Trump higher in FL than TX lol


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: President Johnson on December 08, 2016, 03:48:58 AM
GWU/Battleground national poll, conducted Nov. 28 - Dec. 1:

https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-questionnaire.pdf
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll61-crosstabs.pdf

Pence 44/37% for +7%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Hillary Clinton 42/55% for -13%

They also have tiny subsamples on the largest states (fewer than 100 people, except for CA, so the MoE is huge):

Trump fav/unfav% in…
FL: 59/33% for +26%
TX: 52/44% for +8%
NY: 42/56% for -14%
CA: 34/58% for -24%


Trump higher in FL than TX lol

His second home. The people who know you best... :P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 08, 2016, 04:14:18 AM
It's surprising how Clinton's favorables seem to have gotten worse after the election. Probably many democrats no longer feel the need to defend her


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 08, 2016, 09:21:46 AM
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

Whoops! I missed the Siena poll for New York State.




President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 08, 2016, 09:25:14 AM
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.

President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2408

Blank map. Favorability:

(
)

Probably useful until March.

Approval:

(
)

Even -- white



Red, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Blue, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on December 08, 2016, 12:54:53 PM
It's surprising how Clinton's favorables seem to have gotten worse after the election. Probably many democrats no longer feel the need to defend her

Or they are pissed at her that she lost.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tirnam on December 08, 2016, 02:22:42 PM
Pew Research: Low approval of Trump’s transition

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 08, 2016, 03:53:59 PM
Pew Research: Low approval of Trump’s transition

()

Here’s the full poll:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/low-approval-of-trumps-transition-but-outlook-for-his-presidency-improves/

They have Trump’s favorability margin at -21:

()

()

()

()

Pence also (narrowly) underwater:

()

Also interesting to me in this poll….the gap between Democrats and Republicans on whether there’s a relationship between Islam and violence is wider than it’s ever been:

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 08, 2016, 05:04:53 PM
As a perspective on how optimistic people could be about an incoming President:

()

Such an image of Herbert Hoover was well justified in 1928.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on December 08, 2016, 08:59:54 PM
As a perspective on how optimistic people could be about an incoming President:

()

Such an image of Herbert Hoover was well justified in 1928.

I mean on paper Hoover was a pretty impressive future President, based on his previous career


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 09, 2016, 09:21:32 AM
PPP national poll, conducted Dec. 6-7:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_120916.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Trump 43/51% for -8%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on December 09, 2016, 05:34:52 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 09, 2016, 09:20:35 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.
Seriously


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 10, 2016, 02:42:25 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This is a very good point. Short of events like the Gulf War or 9/11, presidents basically only go down from here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on December 10, 2016, 05:19:04 PM
He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on December 10, 2016, 06:09:04 PM
He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  
Would you be saying the same thing if Clinton had won? Not saying you're wrong, but it's too early to tell that for sure. Anyway, this is all not surprising since he almost certainly would have lost to any other Democrat. Even many Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Absolutely. I was resigned to the fact that Hillary, at best, was going to break even on her favorable if democrats were lucky during the honeymoon period. I also knew Hillary would be back to the low 40s by 2018 and republicans would probably get to 60 seats in the senate. And most importantly, I think she would have lost re-election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on December 12, 2016, 12:40:29 PM
He is probably at 70% unfavorable in CA, so that skews the numbers but doesn't really impact his reelection chances.

Even if there were some truth to that, it wouldn't skew his national numbers that much. Trump is underwater and its only downhill from here.  
Would you be saying the same thing if Clinton had won? Not saying you're wrong, but it's too early to tell that for sure. Anyway, this is all not surprising since he almost certainly would have lost to any other Democrat. Even many Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Absolutely. I was resigned to the fact that Hillary, at best, was going to break even on her favorable if democrats were lucky during the honeymoon period. I also knew Hillary would be back to the low 40s by 2018 and republicans would probably get to 60 seats in the senate. And most importantly, I think she would have lost re-election.

Both candidates were fatally flawed, but one had to win. Trump only did well in comparison to Clinton. Yes, Sanders never faced the full onslaught of the GOP, but he always polled way better than Clinton. Now, with Clinton out of the picture, the Dems are an amorphous, faceless opponent that he cannot tie to any specific scandal or flaw. His counterattacks will be like shooting into a fog, while the Dems can keep pressing him on any number of scandals/crises/tempests that he seems intent on creating every time he tweets.

Clinton would have potentially gotten an SC justice or three... Trump will get the same and perhaps some tax cuts, but it won't be long before the GOP starts infighting. Paul, McCain, and Graham are already signalling they will oppose some of his nominees and investigate the Russia issue. I cannot see him winning over more GOP members than he loses as time goes on (Clinton would have had the same issue, probably would have forced Manchin to switch parties).

He could be in the low to mid 30s by this time next year having done nothing more than behaving as he has been. And that's before we even talk about the economy. We are due for a recession (even a mild one) historically, and that will drag him down too.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JJC on December 12, 2016, 11:05:53 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on December 12, 2016, 11:11:07 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JJC on December 12, 2016, 11:35:30 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2016, 11:49:20 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's
Seeing as Obama's cabinet picks knew what they were doing and not the CEOs who kissed his a**


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 13, 2016, 02:01:12 PM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted Dec. 8-11:
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-f518-def3-a559-ff9e75e10001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000158-f51b-d8c9-ab5a-ffbf17d60001

Trump 45% favorable 51% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: +2
Northeast: -15
South: -1
West: -18

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +4
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -23

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -9
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -2


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on December 13, 2016, 02:04:58 PM
Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -9
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -2

So much for this ridiculous idea that he was the "working-class candidate."


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on December 13, 2016, 02:43:03 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

If you think that Obama has made more than 1/1000th the mistakes that Trump has, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Trump has been getting much better press since his election than he did before it. He's Time's person of the year, hes on the cover of People Magazine. His approvals are up from two months ago... and he's still under 50.

Also, the media will pillory him until he revokes the 1st amendment (not that I think he will), so, maybe deal with the universe as it is rather than the way you wish it was. Fox will cover him positively, CNN will cover him sensationally, and MSNBC will 100% hate him. The other networks will probably lean more negative than positive, but that's life. Deal with it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on December 14, 2016, 02:50:48 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

Looking forward to being one of the 30% at the end who approves?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 14, 2016, 11:26:56 PM
Fox News national poll, conducted Dec. 11-13:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/12/14/fox-news-poll-121416/

fav/unfav %:
Biden 56/33% for +23%
Obama 57/42% for +15%
G. W. Bush 54/41% for +13%
Pence 42/37% for +5%
Romney 45/45% for +/-0
Melania Trump 37/37% for +/-0
D. Trump 47/51% for -4%
H. Clinton 42/56% for -14%

Trump fav/unfav % demos:
men: +16
women: -22
whites: +10
white college degree: -9
white no college degree: +20
non-whites: -45


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Doimper on December 14, 2016, 11:52:47 PM
It really has to be said that there is no precedent for an incoming president to improve all that much after their "honeymoon" period. Trump is getting good press and benefit of the doubt right now, there are no major crises and the GOP is united.

In other words... he's got everything going for him I can think of and he's still underwater.

This might be the single most delusional, dumbest thing I've ever read on this site, ever.

Ever.

Trump could be getting good press and the benefit of the doubt if he were handling the transition competently, but he's not. He's pissed away any goodwill acquired from his victory with his response to the CIA fiasco and his choice of cabinet picks, not to mention his continued twitter usage. All preventable damage.

Crap. All crap. 'Handling the transition competently' is an opinion. I'm sure the +95% of the media which endorsed Hillary have their opinion of things, but they completely lack any ability to see outside their bubble.

It doesn't matter what Trump does, the media will try to take him out every step of the way. Just because you have your biases doesn't mean you have to be a shill and hack.

Just admit it. The media is a liberal propaganda arm of the democratic party. They are not 'non-political' and they are not interested in the truth. Stop pretending otherwise.

'Fake News'
'Alt-right'
'Russian hackers'
'Rigged machines'

Fake narratives created by the media to de-legitimize Trump.

My god, if Obama got same kind of press that conservatives get, his approvals would be in the 20's

Obama didn't get caught on tape admitting to sexual assault.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 15, 2016, 01:23:35 AM
Yougov/Economist national poll, conducted Dec. 10-13:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ro9rimrce9/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Sanders 56/32% for +24%
Biden 51/32% for +19%
Obama 53/43% for +10%
Pence 41/38% for +3%
Warren 34/34% for +/-0
Trump 42/50% for -8%
Clinton 40/54% for -14%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 15, 2016, 01:25:14 PM
Quinnipiac poll of Virginia, conducted Dec. 6-11:

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2412

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on December 15, 2016, 01:27:08 PM
Quinnipiac poll of Virginia, conducted Dec. 6-11:

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%


Wow, what's the deal with Virginia lately?

I remember when Virginia was politically one of the worst states, but now it's becoming one of the best!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 15, 2016, 04:17:32 PM
Virginia does not like the new President.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2412

Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%

This could be the worst of any state with more than five electoral votes for Donald Trump (which leaves room fr Vermont, Rhode Island, New Mexico, and Hawaii). I can't imagine him being that unpopular in California.

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%
Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  






Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 15, 2016, 06:34:46 PM
McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 15, 2016, 06:58:14 PM
McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27


Maybe this explains why he won Iowa and Ohio so decisively and won Michigan and Wisconsin, and came close to winning Minnesota.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on December 15, 2016, 08:52:35 PM
McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27


I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Storebought on December 15, 2016, 08:59:25 PM
McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27


I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

What is interesting is that this is the second regional poll posted by Morden showing Trump being underwater in the South.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 15, 2016, 09:49:30 PM
McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27


I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

I'd say it's interesting.  Before Trump came around, it was rare to see regional polls that showed a national Republican candidate (or president) doing worse in the West than the Northeast.  Sure, there's California, but the Rocky Mountain states moderate "the West" enough that it's not as far left as the Northeast.  But for Trump, in pretty much every single poll, he's in worse shape in the West than the Northeast.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Storebought on December 15, 2016, 11:55:49 PM
McClatchy/Marist national poll, conducted Dec. 1-9:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us161201/Trump_McClatchy-Marist%20Poll_December%202016.pdf

Trump
favorable 43%
unfavorable 52%

by region…
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -10
South: -5
West: -27


I find it interesting how the West hates him so much.

That's not interesting at all => CA.

I'd say it's interesting.  Before Trump came around, it was rare to see regional polls that showed a national Republican candidate (or president) doing worse in the West than the Northeast.  Sure, there's California, but the Rocky Mountain states moderate "the West" enough that it's not as far left as the Northeast.  But for Trump, in pretty much every single poll, he's in worse shape in the West than the Northeast.


Trump's weak wins in UT and AZ, and outright loss of NV (a state tailor-made for Trump) demonstrated that Trump was never so popular in the inhabited intermountain west. But the population of the urban CA/WA coast is so large, and its voters so negative to Trump, that it must strengthen the overall lean seen in the polls.

Does this represents any overall decline in the sunbelt conservatism so evident in the West as a whole starting from the 60s? I won't go that far.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 16, 2016, 02:37:02 AM
Large Hispanic populations. Even though Mexican-Americans (the bulk of the Hispanic population in the West) has been growing, it has not been going Republican.  Educated minorities may be more adept at catching a white Anglo liar than can educated white Anglo people. Maybe it is harder to build unmerited trust among people with cultural differences.  Just think about this -- Bernie Madoff largely fleeced Jews. The SEC has one of its most active offices in Salt Lake City to catch crooks who play on shared Mormonism of those that they fleece in securities scams.

The Hispanic population is growing rapidly in states that until recently had few -- like Utah, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on December 16, 2016, 09:51:49 AM
LOL at the new polls. So Mr. Drumpf won’t have a honeymoon at all? Sad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 16, 2016, 10:07:39 AM
CBS national poll, conducted Dec. 9-13:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-think-trump-will-bring-change-but-most-also-think-hell-divide-the-nation/

fav/unfav %
Pence 30/25% for +5%
Romney 29/29% for +/-0
Trump 30/39% for -9%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on December 16, 2016, 01:05:56 PM
CBS national poll, conducted Dec. 9-13:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-think-trump-will-bring-change-but-most-also-think-hell-divide-the-nation/

fav/unfav %
Pence 30/25% for +5%
Romney 29/29% for +/-0
Trump 30/39% for -9%


Hence my theory that the GOP will eventually putsch out Trump for Pence, and that when they do they will make it work out okay for them


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on December 16, 2016, 03:41:38 PM
New Gallup poll

Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 55%

This is as good as it will get for grifter/groper Trump.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/199997/trump-maintains-post-election-bounce-no-new-gains.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

He needs a bounce.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 16, 2016, 09:46:28 PM
In the unlikely event of a re-do, I see no evidence that Donald Trump would win. The three states shown are clearly blue (atlas Red) states, but there is no way in which Donald Trump could get less than 45% of the vote in Virginia and win nationwide -- either in the popular vote or the electoral vote. Sure, 'favorability' is not an approval rating...



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on December 17, 2016, 12:42:14 AM
In the unlikely event of a re-do, I see no evidence that Donald Trump would win. The three states shown are clearly blue (atlas Red) states, but there is no way in which Donald Trump could get less than 45% of the vote in Virginia and win nationwide -- either in the popular vote or the electoral vote. Sure, 'favorability' is not an approval rating...


The way he wins at this rate is that the Democrats run the worst opposition campaign in history or that the establishment Republican lie machine rigs it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 17, 2016, 03:03:22 AM
New Gallup poll

Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 55%

This is as good as it will get for grifter/groper Trump.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/199997/trump-maintains-post-election-bounce-no-new-gains.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

He needs a bounce.

In the musical Damn Yankees  is the song 'Ya Gotta Have Heart', in which one of the members of the awful Washington Senators interjects "We gotta get better 'cause we can't get worse'. That is about where Donald Trump is. It has to get better 'cause it can;t get worse.

Usually elected politicians disappoint people who voted for them by having to make decisions that can't please everyone. Most political decisions in a mature democracy divide on roughly a 53-47 margin until they are accepted as the norm. That's how same-sex marriage went. First it was unthinkable, then it was a fringe issue, then it was truly controversial, and then it had majority support.

If one wins with 53% of the vote one ends up losing 5% to 8% from the percentage of the vote to a somewhat-stable approval level if one is the average elected official. One gets a bigger vote share by actively campaigning for re-election by touting one's legitimate achievements. Of course, if the achievements are suspect and one knows such, one runs away from one's record -- and loses.    But we all have yet to see that.That will not become clear for some time.

Donald Trump will propose much that a near-majority of Americans will find despicable. But it doesn't matter whether 49% of the electorate thinks one just marginally inadequate or thinks one a monster so long as one gets the plurality of the vote.   

It is possible that he will get miracles by associating great sacrifices in living conditions, the environment, and in educational hopes on behalf of some far-better future. I see a far greater likelihood that he will make things worse for all but the top 2% or so of Americans who might not like to hear such slogans as "Workers of the World, Unite!" or "The Bourgeoisie is the Enemy!

Let us all remember what went on in Russia a hundred years ago next year... no economic elite wants that.

Capitalism saved itself with the consumer economy in which the proletariat became a market for the miracles of innovation from radios to readers instead of being nothing more than sweated toilers. Donald Trump has no clue that the miracles of productivity and technology can no longer make people happy just by producing more stuff. As in the 1930s America solved its problem of unemployment by reducing the workweek from 50 or so hours to 40 hours. We may need to see a further reduction in the normal workweek.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2016, 09:14:29 AM
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-50-percent-approve-trump-s-transition-handling-so-far-n697396

Poll: 50 Percent Approve of Trump's Transition Handling So Far


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: JoshPA on December 18, 2016, 06:08:34 PM
I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 
consider what nancy said about the voters not wanting changes i doubt they be able to take back the house.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 18, 2016, 06:17:33 PM
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-50-percent-approve-trump-s-transition-handling-so-far-n697396

Poll: 50 Percent Approve of Trump's Transition Handling So Far
That's actually awful for a transition


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: Virginiá on December 18, 2016, 06:43:02 PM
I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

This is what I've been thinking. Trump himself really is not that popular and once his meager bounce wears off, Republicans really won't be in a position where it is even remotely safe to push policies such as Medicare/Social Security privatization. The modern day GOP is heavily reliant on older voters and such initiatives would be toxic with them. Unpopular Trump + GOP overreach in 2018 is a recipe for disaster. Maybe they don't lose the Senate and possibly even make a net gain, but the House and oodles of state legislatures/offices could be swept away in a backlash. Gerrymandering and natural packing has made things harder for Democrats and probably given them a lower ceiling in terms of seats, but it has not made the GOP invincible.

They would really be better off playing it safe for the first 2 years so they can get a full term of a unified federal government. Save the crazy stuff for after the midterms.


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: Person Man on December 18, 2016, 08:10:23 PM
I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

This is what I've been thinking. Trump himself really is not that popular and once his meager bounce wears off, Republicans really won't be in a position where it is even remotely safe to push policies such as Medicare/Social Security privatization. The modern day GOP is heavily reliant on older voters and such initiatives would be toxic with them. Unpopular Trump + GOP overreach in 2018 is a recipe for disaster. Maybe they don't lose the Senate and possibly even make a net gain, but the House and oodles of state legislatures/offices could be swept away in a backlash. Gerrymandering and natural packing has made things harder for Democrats and probably given them a lower ceiling in terms of seats, but it has not made the GOP invincible.

They would really be better off playing it safe for the first 2 years so they can get a full term of a unified federal government. Save the crazy stuff for after the midterms.

Then if they save the crazy for 19, what will they have to do in 20? ...of course than relying on the Democrats dying on their own.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on December 18, 2016, 10:21:30 PM
It's exceptionally rare for a party to win seats in a midterm, and it's only recently happened in cases of either national crisis (2002) or when the out party is already in charge of the chambers and... ahem, being dicks about it (1998).

Liberal fatalism aside, the 2006 coalition that flipped the House is still mostly alive and well, it's just been sedate with Obama as president. Trump will polarize for sure, but the House is still most definitely "In Play"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on December 19, 2016, 05:46:08 AM
I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on December 19, 2016, 08:19:48 AM
I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

The national polling average was actually better this year than in 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on December 19, 2016, 12:41:18 PM
Then if they save the crazy for 19, what will they have to do in 20? ...of course than relying on the Democrats dying on their own.

Nothing really I guess. 4 years of Trump is likely going to be toxic for Republicans, so if they insist on pushing something as unpopular as privatization, they might as well wait until the last 2 years and not right before midterms where they the incumbent party almost always loses seats. They can use the first 2 years to push a bunch of relatively smaller policies/budget items.

There is no good time for that kind of policy. If they insist on doing it, it's going to cost them in the next election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 19, 2016, 12:45:05 PM
I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

The national polling average was actually better this year than in 2012.

Source? ???


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: LLR on December 19, 2016, 03:46:33 PM
I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

The national polling average was actually better this year than in 2012.

Source? ???

Final RCP average this year: Clinton +3.3
Result: Clinton +2.1
Error: 1.2

Final RCP average in 2012: Obama +0.7
Result: Obama +3.9
Error: 3.2


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 20, 2016, 09:48:34 AM
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
Pence 37/29% for +8%
Ryan 26/27% for -1%
Trump 40/46% for -6%
H. Clinton 32/54% for -22%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on December 20, 2016, 01:10:04 PM
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
................
Trump 40/46% for -6%

For our blue God-Emperor worshiping avatars: tell me some more about how Trump is going to be the greatest, most fantastic, amazing President ever in our lifetimes who will revolutionize the map.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 20, 2016, 02:24:59 PM
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
................
Trump 40/46% for -6%

For our blue God-Emperor worshiping avatars: tell me some more about how Trump is going to be the greatest, most fantastic, amazing President ever in our lifetimes who will revolutionize the map.

Well he won w/ far worse net favorables than he has now tbf.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on December 20, 2016, 02:27:21 PM

Read carefully what I said about him being a revolutionary realigning president, as half of you people are alleging he is.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on December 20, 2016, 02:28:37 PM
Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

So no earth shattering God-Emperor changing our country and turning it into a utopia of alt-rightists rounding up the liberals?

OK, then. I'm kind of confused on the blue avatar party line. Someone pass me the fresh talking points from them?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pikachu on December 20, 2016, 06:49:15 PM
46% before inauguration is objectively bad. Considering how many things he has going his favor right now, I'll be surprised if his approvals reach this level again by 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on December 21, 2016, 10:35:47 AM
Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

This completely ignores history. The lowest "highest" approval rating for any president since Truman was for Richard Nixon... who never exceeded 67%. Barack Obama's first approval ratings ranged between 75-68, depending on the pollster, and were often above 50.

Gallup's highest high poll rating:

Truman 87
Eisenhower 79
Kennedy 83
Johnson 79
Nixon 67
Ford 71
Carter 75
Reagan 68
GHW Bush 89
Clinton 73
GW Bush 90
Obama 68

If Trump can't crack 55 (in your scenario), he's the worst president by approval rating in history... by far.



 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 21, 2016, 12:04:09 PM
Yougov/Economist national poll, conducted Dec. 17-20:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ljv2ohxmzj/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +9%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
Trump 45/49% for -4%
Clinton 40/54% for -14%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  9% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 5% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  16% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 21, 2016, 12:29:22 PM
Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2016, 12:56:01 PM
Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14


Interesting that Trump is underwater for Upstate NY by 14%.  Election night he won Upstate NY (I guess I define it as NY minus NYC minus LI minus Westchester and Rockland counties) by around 3% overall.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 21, 2016, 01:12:53 PM
Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14


Interesting that Trump is underwater for Upstate NY by 14%.  Election night he won Upstate NY (I guess I define it as NY minus NYC minus LI minus Westchester and Rockland counties) by around 3% overall.

I mean, the national exit poll had both Clinton and Trump underwater by double digits in favorability, yet the vast majority of voters voted for one or the other of them.  So it's not strange to see Trump underwater on favorability in places that he won.  The exit poll had him way down in favorability in Texas of all places, yet he still won the state handily.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 22, 2016, 03:07:44 PM
Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14



I take it back on no large state being unable to so hold Donald Trump in disdain as Virginia in its most recent poll . Sure, it is New York, but nobody is going to win re-election against a reasonably-competent opponent in a free and fair election for President  while having approval that low in New York State. Of course, approval is the acid test, and Trump will need at least 35% approval in New York to have a chance of winning nationwide.  Trump will lose New York even in a 400-EV landslide, but he is not going to lose the state by 30% and win nationally.   


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on December 22, 2016, 04:35:56 PM
Anyone wanna start placing bets on when Mike Pence commences Operation 25th Amendment?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 22, 2016, 04:50:12 PM
Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on December 22, 2016, 04:58:45 PM
Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

I meant Pence convincing half of Cabinet to declare Trump unfit. I doubt (and hope) the Joint Chiefs don't take action. I can't imagine Mattis or Kelly would like kindly on any Trump craziness (and apparently they are very tight wth Dunford) so they may go along with Pence in such a case


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on December 22, 2016, 05:15:09 PM
Mike Pence? At some point (erratic or criminal, as in "war crimes" behavior, or blatantly un-Constitutional), and we might see the Joint Chiefs of Staff take action for cause. If Mike Pence is complicit, then the process that takes our Donald Trump also takes out Mike Pence.

Only one of these states (Virginia) is a legitimate swing state. 39% favorability does not reliably translate into approval... but don't count on him getting anything much above 45%, which is just about what he got. This is a very flawed President by historical standards, and he is already doing very unpopular things.

Don't fool yourself: a military coup would be nasty. Think of Pinochet overthrowing Allende in Chile. That nasty. 

I meant Pence convincing half of Cabinet to declare Trump unfit. I doubt (and hope) the Joint Chiefs don't take action. I can't imagine Mattis or Kelly would like kindly on any Trump craziness (and apparently they are very tight wth Dunford) so they may go along with Pence in such a case

I hadn't considered the 25th Amendment as a scenario. Damn you, for not bringing up earlier. (For the timeline)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 24, 2016, 10:53:23 AM
Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

These are horrid numbers. Donald Trump will need to backtrack on some incendiary, insulting statements from the campaign. He has nearly half the public hating him instead of hoping for good results. But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

The rise and fall of Dubya in the polls indicates that people who expect the best out of a politician has nothing to do with partisanship. Donald Trump has fanatical support from about 40% of the electorate.

It's unlikely to get better. Fanatical support is unlikely to stay when people find that his idea of employment is to get people to work more hours for lower pay and under harsher management. Sure, it's possible to get the industrial jobs back -- but that will require a return to the sweatshops that went out of vogue in America but appear in countries in the early-industrial stage of development. Does anyone really want to work 60 hours a week to live in a fetid slum and have hunger as a companion?

People don't want work so much as they want pay.

...Donald Trump wants the sort of housing bubble financed with predatory lending  that Dubya sponsored. Because everyone now links the housing bubble with the predatory lending of the Double-Zero Decade to the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression, such a bubble will never succeed to the take-off stage. That is a failure waiting to happen.     



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on December 24, 2016, 10:56:38 AM
But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

I won't accept it. He's a predator.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on December 24, 2016, 03:14:23 PM
If the God Emperor is starting with these numbers I can't wait for the ending numbers.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2016, 07:01:53 AM
Rasmussen:

51% favourable
47% unfavourable

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 22, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/december_2016/51_now_view_trump_favorably)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 28, 2016, 10:29:08 AM
Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Dec. 24-27:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zp26cswnj7/econToplines.pdf

Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +11%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
The Democratic Party 40/47% for -7%
Trump 41/50% for -9%
The Republican Party 35/51% for -16%
H. Clinton 38/55% for -17%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on December 28, 2016, 10:37:42 AM
Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Dec. 24-27:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zp26cswnj7/econToplines.pdf

Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +11%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
The Democratic Party 40/47% for -7%
Trump 41/50% for -9%
The Republican Party 35/51% for -16%
H. Clinton 38/55% for -17%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

The Democratic party unfavorables include all those upset at the party for losing, whereas the Republican party can't even maintain positive favorables despite delivering victory at all levels.

21% say increase spending on nukes.

71% say it was a bad year or very bad year.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on December 30, 2016, 09:38:09 AM
Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).


"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on December 30, 2016, 03:53:32 PM
Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).


"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.

The bright side: American youth are going to pay more attention to foreign languages, and that will cause them to become better speakers of English -- and likely less tolerant of a mangler of the English language like Donald Trump.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on December 30, 2016, 09:56:08 PM
Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).


"Local football fans blame team's QB for losing season"

Sidenote...The people who viewed this election as a choice between two good candidates crack me up. Some people just always see the bright side, I suppose.

The bright side: American youth are going to pay more attention to foreign languages, and that will cause them to become better speakers of English -- and likely less tolerant of a mangler of the English language like Donald Trump.

Knowing Russian doesn't help with the English language all that much.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 03, 2017, 03:36:22 PM
A new Gallup poll has Americans highly skeptical of the ability of Donald Trump to achieve  some of the critical functions of the Presidency.


Quote
    Confidence in Presidents-Elect to Handle Presidential Responsibilities
Now I'd like you to think about [...]'s ability to handle a number of things over the next four years. Please tell me whether you are very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident that [...] can ... ?

TOWC
                                                                                %    %    %    %
Prevent major scandals in his administration            44    74    77    n/a
Handle an international crisis                                    46    73    71    70
Use military force wisely                                            47    71    78    n/a
Manage the executive branch effectively                    53    84    77    n/a
Defend U.S. interests abroad as president                    55    75    n/a    65
Handle the economy effectively                                    59    n/a    n/a    n/a
Work effectively with Congress to get things done    60    89    74    n/a

-- Trump O- Obama  W - "Dubya" C- Bill Clinton

 

Ouch!

I think that Trump gets an edge on the economy because such is what he promised  and was most careful in remaining secretive about. People may assume that because he is a tycoon he will get economic improvement by using his business acumen to promote economic growth. Because he has a sure majority in both Houses of Congress on everything he can be expected to do fairly well -- but even with such majorities he is seen less likely to succeed with Congress as with Obama or Dubya. 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201158/skeptical-trump-handle-presidential-duties.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on January 04, 2017, 01:09:36 PM
If we had a recall process for Presidents (which we don't), do you think he'd be recalled?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 04, 2017, 01:14:49 PM
If we had a recall process for Presidents (which we don't), do you think he'd be recalled?

Depends on what for. Recalls have a way of backfiring (see: 2012 in Wisconsin)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 04, 2017, 01:21:55 PM
PPP will be polling north Carolina this weekend.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 04, 2017, 01:50:32 PM

So far we have approval/disapproval in only three states. All three voted against Donald Trump, and voters in all three states don't think well of him. We have no approval polls (he has yet to be inaugurated!)... and PPP will show us results for its favorite state to poll, North Carolina, which barely went for Donald Trump. There was no statewide polling over the Christmas and New Years' weekends... I expect that to change.

We will probably also see polls from Quinnipiac. The map is ready for copious polls, as there will be some hot Governors' races in 2018  in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Because governors have some control over whether voter suppression happens or does not happen, those five races may be more important for 2020 than whether the Republicans make gains in the Senate (which I expect because the Democrats have more potential seats to lose).

By winning the critical governors' races in 2018, Republicans can seal doom for the Democratic Party and liberalism in America.


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 04, 2017, 01:57:03 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 04, 2017, 01:57:58 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x4pjrm6s7x/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Biden 49/34% for +15%
Obama 54/40% for +14%
Pence 39/38% for +1%
The Democratic Party 42/45% for -3%
Trump 41/51% for -10%
The Republican Party 36/51% for -15%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%

Trump fav/unfav by gender:
men: 47/45% for +2%
women: 37/56% for -19%

Trump fav/unfav by household income:
under $50k: 39/52% for -13%
$50-100k: 49/48% for +1%
over $100k: 35/60% for -25%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  9% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 6% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  21% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 04, 2017, 08:17:09 PM
It looks as if the President born in Kenya (according to many on the Right) is far better than the one made in Russia (according to the Left).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 05, 2017, 10:35:02 AM
It looks as if the President born in Kenya (according to many on the Right) is far better than the one made in Russia (according to the Left).
Somewhere in Texas, Kenya, Russia, a village is missing its idiot.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 05, 2017, 01:28:46 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 05, 2017, 02:26:08 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 06, 2017, 07:23:32 AM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 06, 2017, 01:06:07 PM
I didn't expect a poll of Maryland, not that it contradicts anything that polls of New York, New Jersey, and Virginia already say.

First, the incumbent Republican Governor is doing very well in a deep-blue (Atlas Red) state: 74% approval! Fiscal conservative, but basically non-ideological... we could use much of that anywhere.

Second -- Donald Trump is deep underwater in approval -- 30% favorable (combined "somewhat" and "strongly" favorable) and 56% unfavorable -- with 48% seeing him as "strongly unfavorable".

http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Gonzales-Maryland-Media-Poll-January-2017.pdf

To be sure, New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland do not constitute or even contain a state easily described as a microcosm of America. I am more interested in Obama-Trump states for now. I'm guessing that if states from Virginia to Maine were to have their say on Donald Trump, then he'd be vulnerable to a military coup.  

Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 06, 2017, 01:30:45 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 06, 2017, 06:07:54 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc

Seems still like something to do if you do have to become a refugee...but maybe only then?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 06, 2017, 06:33:38 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc

Seems still like something to do if you do have to become a refugee...but maybe only then?

Sure in a worst case scenario. I have hope for America yet


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on January 06, 2017, 08:59:02 PM
Quote
YouGov/Economist NEW!
Dec 31, 2016 – Jan 3, 2017
1,647 Adults

51% Unfavorable
41% Favorable

That's a short honeymoon...

I doubt that there was a honeymoon.

I think that Donald Trump is as close to the bottom as he can go, as America is divided into two nearly-equal political universes that believe in diametric opposites. Republicans are going to be proved wrong or Democrats will be made permanently irrelevant.

This would be a great four years to work abroad.

I have dual citizenship, but I've lived in America my whole life (was born here) and I'm not giving up on her. I wince at the "I'll just leave!" Thinking.

Though I don't think my wife would want to live in Europe either, so there's that haha

Why not?

Neither of us have ever lived in Sweden. I speak the language, she does not. Would be hard for her to get work, etc

Seems still like something to do if you do have to become a refugee...but maybe only then?

Uhm....

Trump is president, not King. There's only so much damage he can actually do in 4 years.

Still, it is nice to have the ability to "return to Israel" if I ever so desired.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 07, 2017, 06:04:50 PM
But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

I won't accept it. He's a predator.

I wouldn't either. It would show him as a callow opportunist.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 07, 2017, 07:58:13 PM
But if he backtracks on those incendiary statements, will those to whom he apologizes accept it?

I won't accept it. He's a predator.

I wouldn't either. It would show him as a callow opportunist.



Or the people do and he becomes the greatest Sophist in a century if not more.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 10, 2017, 12:44:14 PM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted Jan. 5-7:
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000159-8543-d978-af79-e57b62f70000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000159-853b-d15a-afdf-dfbb19780001

Trump 48% favorable 46% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -3
Northeast: -4
South: +9
West: 0

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +13
blacks: -55
Hispanics: -11

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -4
$50-100k: +13
over $100k: +11


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 10, 2017, 12:57:41 PM
Interesting his numbers are weak in Midwest. I've always seen that as his best region

Numbers down South shouldn't be surprising


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 10, 2017, 12:58:24 PM
Quinnipiac poll from 1/5-1/9:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his responsibilities as president-elect?

Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 51%

Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable - 37%
Unfavorable - 51%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 10, 2017, 12:59:29 PM
Quinnipiac poll from 1/5-1/9:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his responsibilities as president-elect?

Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 51%

Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable - 37%
Unfavorable - 51%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415

Ouch!!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2017, 01:02:03 PM
Quinnipiac poll from 1/5-1/9:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his responsibilities as president-elect?

Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 51%

Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable - 37%
Unfavorable - 51%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415

Ouch!!

This poll is awful for Trump, every number is worse than it was at the end of November.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 10, 2017, 01:06:28 PM
Quinnipiac poll from 1/5-1/9:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his responsibilities as president-elect?

Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 51%

Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable - 37%
Unfavorable - 51%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415

He ran as a Man of the People and then showed himself as the Man of Wealth and privilege. He's the classic fraud -- Bait-and-Switch. 

We have been had as a nation and people. It will be ugly.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2017, 01:29:10 PM
Trump is already more unpopular than Obama ever was in a Quinnipiac poll, lol

()



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 10, 2017, 01:42:34 PM
These are Bush '06 level numbers


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 10, 2017, 01:55:09 PM
Gonna. Get. Ugly.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2017, 01:56:02 PM
Either the polls are wrong, again, or people have lost their minds. >:( So, based on this numbers, 20% of Trump voters disapprove him... OK.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dereich on January 10, 2017, 02:36:01 PM
Either the polls are wrong, again, or people have lost their minds. >:( So, based on this numbers, 20% of Trump voters disapprove him... OK.

That's the joy of a two party system. Voting for the "least bad" option in no way binds you to approving of your candidate. Plus, this would include people who disapprove of Trump but for whatever reason chose not to vote. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2017, 02:50:33 PM
So are we already trusting the polls 100% again?

That being said, even if those numbers are accurate, it's not surprising at all. Neither Trump nor Clinton were very popular candidates.

National polls sure, they weren't wrong last year.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 10, 2017, 03:16:49 PM
Either the polls are wrong, again, or people have lost their minds. >:( So, based on this numbers, 20% of Trump voters disapprove him... OK.

Pretty much every Republican/conservative I know either didn't vote, voted for Johnson, or voted for Trump but despise him.

Maybe I'm in cloistered circles, but I've never once met an enthusiastic Trump supporter, and I lived in Spokane for 4 years


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 10, 2017, 03:20:59 PM
They were a bit off as well, but I was talking about the NC poll (and state polls in general).

I don't know the answer to this, but I'm curious: Were the RV state polls in 2016 more accurate than the LV state polls?  Because all the favorability polls in this thread are obviously RV polls.

I'm just wondering if the 2016 state polls were off in part because pollsters were assuming that the likely voters would look like the likely voters did in 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on January 10, 2017, 03:35:52 PM
Either the polls are wrong, again, or people have lost their minds. >:( So, based on this numbers, 20% of Trump voters disapprove him... OK.

Pretty much every Republican/conservative I know either didn't vote, voted for Johnson, or voted for Trump but despise him.

Maybe I'm in cloistered circles, but I've never once met an enthusiastic Trump supporter, and I lived in Spokane for 4 years

Silent support for Trump is a real phenomenon. Just something to consider...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: President Johnson on January 10, 2017, 03:59:02 PM
The whole Washington Post Story (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/10/this-new-poll-has-all-kinds-of-bad-news-for-donald-trump/?postshare=4561484079621692&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.97048af29137) to the recent poll.

These numbers are terrible for an incoming chief executive. Isn't there a "rule" for US officeholders that anybody with an approval rating below 40% has practically no chance for getting reelected?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Maxwell on January 10, 2017, 04:12:26 PM
so no honeymoon stage? or, oh god, is this the honeymoon stage?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 10, 2017, 05:01:53 PM
Honeymoons can be bad experiences. She's a hiker and camper, they're from Greater LA, and they agreed to go to Banff to see nature at its best. He, a compulsive gambler,  decided to take a diversion in Las Vegas and spend the honeymoon funds playing a big-roller in Vegas.  She finds Vegas boring. To keep playing he hocked the car and camping gear to keep playing, and of course he went through that csh... and the honeymoon ends as she sobbingly calls friends and relatives for bus fare home.  

That marriage will not last.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 10, 2017, 05:48:26 PM
Honeymoons can be bad experiences. She's a hiker and camper, they're from Greater LA, and they agreed to go to Banff to see nature at its best. He, a compulsive gambler,  decided to take a diversion in Las Vegas and spend the honeymoon funds playing a big-roller in Vegas.  She finds Vegas boring. To keep playing he hocked the car and camping gear to keep playing, and of course he went through that csh... and the honeymoon ends as she sobbingly calls friends and relatives for bus fare home.  

That marriage will not last.



Sad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Pandaguineapig on January 10, 2017, 10:32:17 PM
Two things:

1. Morning consult and other pollsters have shown better (albeit not great) numbers for Trump

2. Quinnipiac showed a much rosier picture for democrats than what transpired on November 8th, an anti-trump house effect might be showing in his approvals as well


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 10, 2017, 11:20:19 PM
Two things:

1. Morning consult and other pollsters have shown better (albeit not great) numbers for Trump

2. Quinnipiac showed a much rosier picture for democrats than what transpired on November 8th, an anti-trump house effect might be showing in his approvals as well
SPIN BABY SPIN


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 11, 2017, 12:52:44 AM
Two things:

1. Morning consult and other pollsters have shown better (albeit not great) numbers for Trump

2. Quinnipiac showed a much rosier picture for democrats than what transpired on November 8th, an anti-Trump house effect might be showing in his approvals as well

Donald Trump won with a late surge that few could foresee. But now people have misgivings about what they elected, at least in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia. We get to see how North Carolina goes tomorrow. (I was hoping to see Florida, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin from Quinnipiac... maybe next week.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 11, 2017, 08:32:16 AM
Two things:

1. Morning consult and other pollsters have shown better (albeit not great) numbers for Trump

2. Quinnipiac showed a much rosier picture for democrats than what transpired on November 8th, an anti-trump house effect might be showing in his approvals as well

The polls were fine if you account for undecideds splitting 2:1 for Trump. That would give him a 4 swing and enough to swing Florida, Pennsylvania, and other states where he was behind just at MoE but won by a few thousand votes.

Then again, maybe there was a big Bradley Effect (people voting differently than they poll out of shame) out there.

With no girl or other non-good ol WASP fat cat to run against, maybe people are telling the truth.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 11, 2017, 12:30:13 PM
Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Jan. 7-10:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/octxvxy91s/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 50/33% for +17%
Obama 52/44% for +8%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
Trump 44/51% for -7%
The Democratic Party 39/48% for -9%
The Republican Party 36/51% for -15%

Trump fav/unfav by household income:
under $50k: 40/51% for -11%
$50-100k: 51/46% for +5%
over $100k: 43/54% for -11%

6% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  7% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Storebought on January 11, 2017, 06:29:38 PM
Trump's approval rating may only average in the high 30s throughout his term, but they are the the most important 30-something percent of the population. The majority-of-the-majority, so to speak.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 11, 2017, 06:42:09 PM
Trump's approval rating may only average in the high 30s throughout his term, but they are the the most important 30-something percent of the population. The majority-of-the-majority, so to speak.

Is that satire?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 11, 2017, 07:08:11 PM
Trump's approval rating may only average in the high 30s throughout his term, but they are the the most important 30-something percent of the population. The majority-of-the-majority, so to speak.

When Donald Trump becomes President, 2% of the American public -- the people who own more than 50% of the assets -- will be more important that the rest of America. That is how plutocracy works. There will be no meaningful change in the political reality of America for nearly two years. All hail Lord Mammon Who requireth human sacrifices unto Him!

There will always be snobs and flunkies who think that it is better to be a house slave than a field slave and fear that in the wake of emancipation their privileged state among people far worse-off than them will be at risk if a more just order, one that no longer needs slavery, comes into being. Such people are fools. (Sure that is an exaggeration, and an ugly one... but it has relevance).

Donald Trump winning the Presidential election with slightly more of the popular vote than McCain got in 2008 or Dukakis got in 1988 (and they are considered big losers), less than Kerry in 2004 or Romney in 2012, and less than the winner of the plurality, is a fluke.

It could be that for the next four years the American economic system will dictate that the masses suffer more for the Master Class and pretend to love it. Should that be the permanent state of things in America and I have no means of escape other than pulling the pin on a live grenade, then I will pull the pin on a live grenade. At the end of those four years... 39% approval will not be enough to keep Donald Trump or his successor in power.

It is possible to sell manure. It has its uses. It is impossible to sell human suffering unless one disguises it carefully as some promise to "Make America Great Again".        


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 12, 2017, 10:45:06 AM
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/opinion-tracking/donald-j-trump-favorable-rating/

PPD, a very accurate polling firm I watched closely this cycle, has Trump at 53-39!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on January 12, 2017, 10:48:21 AM
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/opinion-tracking/donald-j-trump-favorable-rating/

PPD, a very accurate polling firm I watched closely this cycle, has Trump at 53-39!

Yer funny.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 12, 2017, 11:12:54 AM
Pretty sure that "pollster" had Trump winning the popular vote, which did not happen.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 12, 2017, 02:12:47 PM
Pretty sure that "pollster" had Trump winning the popular vote, which did not happen.

By at least as much as he lost!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on January 12, 2017, 05:39:25 PM
Pretty sure that "pollster" had Trump winning the popular vote, which did not happen.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Pandaguineapig on January 12, 2017, 05:43:43 PM
Pretty sure that "pollster" had Trump winning the popular vote, which did not happen.
Still closer than the polls that had Clinton winning by double digits


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 12, 2017, 10:03:52 PM
Pretty sure that "pollster" had Trump winning the popular vote, which did not happen.
Still closer than the polls that had Clinton winning by double digits

The RCP was a like C+2 and everyone else was C+4.  They were T+2 or 3.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 13, 2017, 02:49:00 AM
Pretty sure that "pollster" had Trump winning the popular vote, which did not happen.

By at least as much as he lost!

What means he's not worse than Quinnipiac e.g. Not even speaking of Dem hecks like Target Smart, PPP and Nate Cohns Siena scum. But I guess, that's "different" for you ;-)

Btw, typical left-wing reaction: Don't like the message? Attack the messanger. Disgusting.

Person A: This accurate pollster shows Trump with a higher approval rating than normal.

Person B: Actually that pollster didn't meet the credibility of even 538's loose requirements, and was too favorable to Trump in the end as public data shows.

Person A: Wow you liberal hack.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Doimper on January 13, 2017, 05:19:16 AM
Btw, typical left-wing reaction: Don't like the message? Attack the messanger. Disgusting.

Trump berates CNN reporter: 'You are fake news' (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/313777-trump-berates-cnn-reporter-for-fake-news)

No words


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 13, 2017, 10:34:04 AM
Democrats just aren't "giving up" like Republicans did for 6 months with Obama or with Bush both times


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 13, 2017, 10:43:31 AM
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
President-elect
★★★★★★
Posts: 123469

()
Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread « on: January 13, 2017»
These polls are just another FAKE NEWS by the CORRUPT MEDIA, trying to undermine my presidency and the great movement we created. SAD!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ljube on January 14, 2017, 09:28:21 AM
Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 14, 2017, 11:34:51 AM
Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.

There hasn't been time to measure the impact.

Besides, it hasn't dropped at all from last week. Maybe kinky people like me approve of him more now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 14, 2017, 11:19:34 PM
How could devout Christians fall for a Presidential nominee just slightly more moral than Dracula?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on January 14, 2017, 11:27:15 PM
How could devout Christians fall for a Presidential nominee just slightly more moral than Dracula?

Maybe they weren't so "devout Christians" in the first place?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 15, 2017, 12:26:46 PM
Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.

There hasn't been time to measure the impact.

Besides, it hasn't dropped at all from last week. Maybe kinky people like me approve of him more now.

The awful puns and double-entendres practically write themselves. The topic offers a steady stream of psychological connotations.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 15, 2017, 12:35:50 PM
Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.

There hasn't been time to measure the impact.

Besides, it hasn't dropped at all from last week. Maybe kinky people like me approve of him more now.

The topic offers a steady stream of psychological connotations.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 15, 2017, 02:24:23 PM
Trump's approval took a hit because of the fake golden shower affair.

He will recover pretty soon.

There hasn't been time to measure the impact.

Besides, it hasn't dropped at all from last week. Maybe kinky people like me approve of him more now.

The awful puns and double-entendres practically write themselves. The topic offers a steady stream of psychological connotations.

The next agency: The FPC.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 15, 2017, 02:37:06 PM
The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 15, 2017, 02:47:13 PM
The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.

Lol


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 15, 2017, 03:00:03 PM
The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.

You do well by not missing out on golden opportunities.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 16, 2017, 08:39:33 AM
The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.

You do well by not missing out on golden opportunities.

Tinkle Down Economics- The Next Golden Opportunity. Let us all shower in fortune as we bask in the warmth of a rising tide!
Urine.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 16, 2017, 09:45:35 AM
Stop taking the piss, guys.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 16, 2017, 09:55:59 AM
The double entendre by me (steady stream) was intentional.

You do well by not missing out on golden opportunities.

Tinkle Down Economics- The Next Golden Opportunity. Let us all shower in fortune as we bask in the warmth of a rising tide!
Urine.



We’re going to have so many golden opportunities coming January 20 and onward, that you’ll be sick and tired of them.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on January 17, 2017, 08:07:07 AM
Washington Post: Trump draws low marks for transition, response to Russian hacking

Article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-draws-low-marks-for-transition-response-to-russian-hacking/2017/01/17/0926302a-dc25-11e6-ad42-f3375f271c9c_story.html?pushid=breaking-news_1484658063&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.78d718edda00

Poll questions & results: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-postabc-news-poll-january-1215/2017/01/16/5c82bb38-dc27-11e6-8902-610fe486791c_page.html?tid=a_inl


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 17, 2017, 09:53:06 AM
And here we go again! The Trumpster just tweeted what I previously predicted/joked:

Quote from: @realdonaldtrump
The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before.
Link (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/821344302651555840)


The orange clown just never grows up. #LOLDrumpf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 17, 2017, 10:11:56 AM
The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone January 12-15 among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is higher for subgroups

()
()

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

Those images don’t show up for me, so I’ll just post the Trump favorability plus crosstabs:

Trump favorability/unfavorability:
44/53% for -9%

men: +10
women: -27
non-whites: -47
white college grads: -15
white non-college grads: +22
age 18-34: -32
age 35-49: +2
age 50-64: -5
age 65+: +1
Midwest: -2
Northeast: -25
South: -8
West: 0
urban: -28
suburban: -17
rural: +36


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 17, 2017, 10:16:39 AM
Poll questions & results: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-postabc-news-poll-january-1215/2017/01/16/5c82bb38-dc27-11e6-8902-610fe486791c_page.html?tid=a_inl

Trump favorability/unfavorability:
40/54% for -14%

men: -3
women: -25
whites: +6
non-whites: -52
Midwest: -19
Northeast: -23
South: -3
West: -22
urban: -43
suburban: -3
rural: +15


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 17, 2017, 01:14:53 PM
New Monmouth Poll (1/12-1/15)

Trump favorability rating: 34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable

Ouch

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 17, 2017, 01:42:13 PM
New Monmouth Poll (1/12-1/15)

Trump favorability rating: 34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable

Ouch

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/

men: -6
women: -16
whites: +5
non-whites: -45
income less than $50k: -10
income $50-100k: -14
income over $100k: -21


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2017, 02:44:24 PM
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 17, 2017, 02:51:18 PM
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.

I'm not big a Mike Pence fan but he seems like he could parlay his religiousness into earning *some* crossover minority votes


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 17, 2017, 02:56:56 PM
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
What wonderful times we live in!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on January 17, 2017, 02:59:26 PM
There aren't enough whites to re-elect Trump/Pence by themselves. There are too many liberal and Democratic white voters who find Trump and Pence terrible and won't be voting for them anytime soon.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on January 17, 2017, 03:00:54 PM
In addition, I'm pretty sure Hillary won inner-city whites to begin with. The cities are growing much faster than rural areas now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2017, 03:06:01 PM
He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
What wonderful times we live in!

I don't trust an impetuous fool with the red button -- or my civil liberties.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: President Johnson on January 17, 2017, 03:07:52 PM
And here we go again! The Trumpster just tweeted what I previously predicted/joked:

Quote from: @realdonaldtrump
The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before.
Link (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/821344302651555840)


The orange clown just never grows up. #LOLDrumpf


Actually sad that he's even wasting his time for bullsh** tweets like this.


He or Mike Pence might need a whites-only electorate to win re-election.

Fasten your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.

I don't think so. I mean, he's not even in office. These numbers are terrible, absolutely, but he upset once. I won't make such predictions anymore.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2017, 03:17:04 PM
And here we go again! The Trumpster just tweeted what I previously predicted/joked:

Quote from: @realdonaldtrump
The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before.
Link (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/821344302651555840)


The orange clown just never grows up. #LOLDrumpf


Again, except for having nice clothes and never being short of cash, Donald Trump reminds me of the semi-literate juvenile delinquents that I knew all too well -- and did everything possible to avoid -- when I was in middle school and high school. The juvenile delinquents either grew up  and took  honest blue-collar jobs (Hooray!) or failed to grow up and ended up in prison for theft or violent crime. 

Nobody has compelled Donald Trump to grow up. He has been exempt from the humiliating (and often humanizing) realities that anyone not born with a silver spoon in his mouth ends up having to endure.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on January 17, 2017, 05:38:17 PM
New poll from Monmouth U (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/), whose reputation probably took the largest hit among pollsters, conducted from 1/12 - 1/15:

34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable, 20% No opinion (who are these people?!?)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 17, 2017, 05:44:22 PM
New poll from Monmouth U (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/), whose reputation probably took the largest hit among pollsters, conducted from 1/12 - 1/15:

34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable, 20% No opinion (who are these people?!?)
Those who will 'give him a chance', much like the 20% or so who had no opinion on Obama. They'll probably become unfavorable.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 18, 2017, 09:07:52 AM
New poll from Monmouth U (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/), whose reputation probably took the largest hit among pollsters, conducted from 1/12 - 1/15:

34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable, 20% No opinion (who are these people?!?)

The margin is the same as for those pollsters that give Trump favorability around 40%... that negative margin suggests a rough start for the President-Elect.

The only good thing that I can say of it is that if he is going to be down that much, then it had better be early. Can he convince Americans that Corporate America can do more good for them than anyone else, that only the harshest discipline of brutal management and the sting of poverty can force people out of their inherent laziness, and that vicarious delight in the ostentatious display of success by America's 'winners' can bring true happiness? Can his real-estate huckster and reality-TV model of management work well for Americans?

I'd rather watch old movies. Wouldn't you?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 18, 2017, 09:56:57 AM
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Jan. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/336831474/17016-NBCWSJ-January-Poll-Final-5-PM-Release

fav/unfav %:
Biden 56/22% for +34%
Pence 35/32% for +3%
Republican Party 35/43% for -8%
Democratic Party 35/44% for -9%
Trump 38/48% for -10%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 18, 2017, 10:05:38 AM
Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Jan. 14-17:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fgqecf80as/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 55/30% for +25%
Obama 55/40% for +15%
Pence 40/37% for +3%
The Democratic Party 43/47% for -4%
Trump 40/54% for -14%
The Republican Party 36/53% for -17%

Trump fav/unfav by household income:
under $50k: 36/58% for -22%
$50-100k: 48/48% for +/-0
over $100k: 39/60% for -21%

6% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  7% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 18, 2017, 10:42:18 AM
Things are going to get ugly unless Trump does something fast


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 18, 2017, 11:44:17 AM
North Carolina (PPP): -5 (44/49) (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_11817.pdf)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2017, 11:48:30 AM
Rasmussen released their final Obama approval numbers today: 62-38 approve.

They will start polling Trump from today on and release the first Trump approval ratings on Friday, based on a 3-day tracker.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 18, 2017, 12:07:18 PM
North Carolina (PPP): -5 (44/49) (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_11817.pdf)

A bit worse than I imagined, honestly, but not terrible compared to some states


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 18, 2017, 02:23:16 PM
Things are going to get ugly unless Trump does something fast

He's shown that he doesn't care and will antagonize anyone who doesn't agree with him. He might succeed in uniting the country against him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 18, 2017, 02:43:17 PM
Here's the first poll of a state that in fact voted for Donald Trump (if not by much) -- North Carolina. PPP, as if you are surprised.

January 13-16, 2017
Survey of 953 North Carolina voters

North Carolina Survey Results

Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?

 50% Approve
..........................................................
 47% Disapprove
......................................................
  4% Not sure
..........................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?

 44% Favorable
........................................................
 49% Unfavorable
....................................................
  6%  Not sure
....................................................

In other polling news... North Carolinians do not expect Donald Trump to be as good a President as Barack Obama; they trust the intelligence services more than they trust Donald Trump; and they don't look sympathetically upon Russian President Vladimir Putin. They want the Affordable Care Act reformed and strengthened -- not scrapped.

(If you are wondering about Q -- it's polling New York City this week, so any results for the Big Apple will be interesting -- if irrelevant).


Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_11817.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hillary Lost on January 18, 2017, 04:10:07 PM
Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 18, 2017, 04:15:43 PM
Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!

"I don't like what I'm seeing = fake news."


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on January 18, 2017, 05:24:28 PM
Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!

These are the same polls that showed Trump losing the popular vote, yes. Polling error in 2016 was pretty much in line with other years. Some systemic error in Midwest, but otherwise, pretty standard year.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 18, 2017, 07:22:00 PM
Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!

National polling was better in 2016 than 2012.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 18, 2017, 11:55:48 PM
Aren't these the same polls that showed Trump losing?  As far as how people think he'll do it's 48/48.  Democrats can spin it however they want.  Remember polls are fake news.  Nice little work though!

Sure. Polls go obsolete quickly in a dynamic reality. They can also fail to recognize the effectiveness of voter suppression, as in Wisconsin. News that fails to tell the full story is not fake news unless it has a deliberate intent to deceive. Polls measure something and are only estimates of reality.

No conventional wisdom can tell us how well Donald Trump will do as president based upon whether people like him early. Some things, like asparagus and classical music, are acquired tastes. So it could theoretically be with Trump economics -- that the social order that can enforce great sacrifices by people other than elites can lead to incredible gains in productivity that will make the suffering all worthwhile.

Approvals for the transition are awful. This is a chaotic transition, offering to many indications of a chaotic administration that will call for drastic changes that cannot be implemented. Nowhere do people like chaos in governmental administration or foreign policy. 

Donald Trump will work miracles or he will lose the faith of multitudes who voted for him. He had enthusiasm on his side, but that can wear off rapidly if the results are awful. Some expect it all to work well, with America unleashing the phenomenal growth (if with horrible conditions of life by current standards) of the Gilded Age. I look at the personality and see someone that I would not want as a boss. I see someone who has no idea of how to govern without resorting to despotic command unsuited to the American people. I see someone more likely to inspire mass contempt than to convince people to make great sacrifices of political qualities and agendas that they have long cherished.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 19, 2017, 08:54:50 AM
CBS/NYT national poll, conducted Jan. 13-16:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-americans-disapprove-than-approve-trumps-handling-of-transition/

Trump: 32% favorable, 42% unfavorable


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on January 19, 2017, 04:11:21 PM
CBS/NYT national poll, conducted Jan. 13-16:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-americans-disapprove-than-approve-trumps-handling-of-transition/

Trump: 32% favorable, 42% unfavorable


Watch out François Hollande, your polling record may have some stiff competition soon.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 19, 2017, 07:20:54 PM
CBS/NYT national poll, conducted Jan. 13-16:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-americans-disapprove-than-approve-trumps-handling-of-transition/

Trump: 32% favorable, 42% unfavorable


Watch out François Hollande, your polling record may have some stiff competition soon.

A quarter of the country will approve of him no matter what, as was the case with Dubya/Nixon/Truman etc. Remember also that Hollande only had the support of about a quarter in the first round of the 2012 election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 19, 2017, 09:03:31 PM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 19, 2017, 09:58:27 PM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

Instant. Buyer's. Remorse.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 19, 2017, 10:23:15 PM
Rasmussen national poll:

link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/january_2017/52_view_trump_favorably)

Trump: 52% favorable, 48% unfavorable


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on January 20, 2017, 12:16:07 AM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/19/fox-news-poll-divided-yet-optimistic-country-awaits-trump.html

His approval of transition rating is lower than his favorability.

Hillary's also back ahead of Trump in net favorability.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 20, 2017, 09:52:07 AM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/19/fox-news-poll-divided-yet-optimistic-country-awaits-trump.html

His approval of transition rating is lower than his favorability.

Hillary's also back ahead of Trump in net favorability.

All these polls are rigged! And they’re rigged big league.

Actually it’s no wonder. He doesn’t get several posts filled but has time to respond to criticisms with thin-skinned insults on Twitter. Sad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 20, 2017, 10:13:43 AM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/19/fox-news-poll-divided-yet-optimistic-country-awaits-trump.html

His approval of transition rating is lower than his favorability.

Hillary's also back ahead of Trump in net favorability.

fav/unfav %:
Obama 60/39% for +21%
Pence 45/37% for +8%
The Democratic Party 47/48% for -1%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
The Republican Party 41/53% for -12%
Trump 42/55% for -13%

Trump fav/unfav among…
men: +/-0
women: -25
under $50k income: -28
over $50k income: -7
non-white: -55
white college degree: -21
white no college degree: +22

8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
14% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of her.

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 20, 2017, 10:17:57 AM
At Rasmussen, Trump starts with the following approval rating:

56% approve
44% disapprove

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliated voters approve of the job Trump is doing. Seventy percent (70%) of Democrats disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% of all likely voters who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 36% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of +2 (see trends).

Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

When Barack Obama was sworn in as president on January 20, 2009, 67% of likely voters approved of his job performance; 31% disapproved.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 20, 2017, 11:24:19 AM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

Fox is not a bad pollster. That's... not good


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 20, 2017, 11:51:07 AM
Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

Fox is not a bad pollster. That's... not good


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on January 20, 2017, 01:28:51 PM
The Fox poll is definitely a Friday news dump, how many of their viewers are ever going to see this poll with all the inauguration coverage.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JohnCA246 on January 20, 2017, 04:56:05 PM
Today is a good day after all. 2020 is by no means a sure thing, but it can be done.

Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/19/fox-news-poll-divided-yet-optimistic-country-awaits-trump.html

His approval of transition rating is lower than his favorability.

Hillary's also back ahead of Trump in net favorability.

fav/unfav %:
Obama 60/39% for +21%
Pence 45/37% for +8%
The Democratic Party 47/48% for -1%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
The Republican Party 41/53% for -12%
Trump 42/55% for -13%

Trump fav/unfav among…
men: +/-0
women: -25
under $50k income: -28
over $50k income: -7
non-white: -55
white college degree: -21
white no college degree: +22

8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
14% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of her.

()



Title: Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 21, 2017, 09:16:54 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

Donald Trump has a 56% approval.

Rasmussen is a C rated pollster

Nate Bronze is not a trustworthy source.

And in addition, they had the supposedly most accurate poll of 2016 and whilst one swallow does not make a summer, it seriously can't be that wrong.

And, for all you now it might be 3% off in the other direction, and he may nearly have 60%.

The salt is strong with this one

Face it, nobody likes your candidate

He has 56% approval, higher than when Reagan entered office, and the same as Clinton and George W. Bush had when they entered office.

So yes, most Americans like Trump, get over it.

People are lying to the pollsters as Trump said, Rasmussen is clearly rigging its polls

You can't cheer on Obama having 60% in a Rasmussen poll, and then call it fake the following week.

If you consider it rigged, then fine I'll give you that. Trump's popularity is probably much higher.
The man lost the popular vote by 3 million 40% is more likely than 56% also unlike Trump multiple polls say the same about Obama's popularity while Rasmussen stick outs like a sore thumb with Trump


Title: Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread
Post by: Meclazine for Israel on January 21, 2017, 09:58:52 AM

I take your point.

https://youtu.be/q2R2btO4MEo

She certainly has a voice worthy of the next Star Wars film.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on January 21, 2017, 11:08:16 AM
At Rasmussen, Trump starts with the following approval rating:

56% approve
44% disapprove

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliated voters approve of the job Trump is doing. Seventy percent (70%) of Democrats disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% of all likely voters who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 36% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of +2 (see trends).

Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

When Barack Obama was sworn in as president on January 20, 2009, 67% of likely voters approved of his job performance; 31% disapproved.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

See, I told you guys this stuff about him starting at 40% approval was utter nonsense. 56% is a strong position, and whilst not the 67% Obama, we must remember that the 67% was mostly fake and dissipated after a few months. A good presidency would mean that Trump takes a generally upward trajectory like Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Rasmussen is also one of the more accurate pollsters of this election, as much as I hate to use the term "accurate" when relating to polls these days. They also offer one of the most regular approval polling, from Monday to Friday.

Lol.


Title: Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread
Post by: Virginiá on January 21, 2017, 11:22:01 AM
So yes, most Americans like Trump, get over it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

Favorable average: 41.8%
Unfavorable average: 49.9%

Most Americans don't like Trump. This was true before election day and after election day. Even if you wanted, for your "polls were wrong" factor, you could tack on a few extra favorable points and he would still be more unpopular than popular. Most national polls were simply not off by enough here to make a case that he is actually more liked than not.

Frankly, the fact that you have to sit here and cherry pick polls to prove people like him should be a red flag on its own.


Title: Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 21, 2017, 04:10:42 PM
[quote author=Abraham Washington link=topic=256662.msg5481974#msg5481974

If you consider it rigged, then fine I'll give you that. Trump's popularity is probably much higher.

Rasmussen is a right wing pollster. It's obvious Rasmussen is rigging the polls for Trump to make him look good.
[/quote]

Land lines only, effectively selecting an older and much more conservative se3gment of the population.


Title: Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread
Post by: KingSweden on January 21, 2017, 05:51:34 PM
So yes, most Americans like Trump, get over it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

Favorable average: 41.8%
Unfavorable average: 49.9%

Most Americans don't like Trump. This was true before election day and after election day. Even if you wanted, for your "polls were wrong" factor, you could tack on a few extra favorable points and he would still be more unpopular than popular. Most national polls were simply not off by enough here to make a case that he is actually more liked than not.

Frankly, the fact that you have to sit here and cherry pick polls to prove people like him should be a red flag on its own.

And keep in mind RCP self selects polls


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2017, 10:55:27 AM
Rasmussen is not landline-only ...

Quote
Methodology

Data for Rasmussen Reports survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology.

Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.

All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from  a demographically diverse panel.

After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.

For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.

Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2017, 11:02:11 AM
More:

Quote
All surveys include an online component that targets adults who have abandoned landlines and younger adults. Where possible 25% of the interviews are conducted online.

http://www.pulseopinionresearch.com/Survey


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2017, 09:43:25 AM
Rasmussen, first full 3-day sample since Trump was sworn in:

55% approve
44% disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Gallup should have their first results today at around 1pm.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 23, 2017, 01:05:41 PM
Gallup: 45% approve 55% disaprove of Trump http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 23, 2017, 01:07:52 PM
Gallup: 45% approve 55% disaprove of Trump http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Mein Gott, that's horrible!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: / on January 23, 2017, 01:15:34 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 23, 2017, 01:17:26 PM
As if no one would be undecided three days into a presidency; Gallup in fact has it even at 45/45.

http://pollingreport.com/djt_job1.htm


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 23, 2017, 01:27:11 PM
WBUR, Massachusetts

This looks like favorability, altogether -- how optimistically Massachusetts people think of  Donald Trump today. Average the "good" as favorability, and one gets about 25%.

Was George III ever that unpopular in Massachusetts?

()


http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2017/01/19/poll-trump-massachusetts-inauguration

At this point, I think Massachusetts would be ready to return to British rule!

If PPP does a poll of Massachusetts and wants a quirky question, whether Massachusetts voters would rather return to British rule than endure Donald Trump might be a good one. I have supplied some such questions that have been placed in their polls. 

Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on January 23, 2017, 01:37:00 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2017, 01:49:18 PM
Rasmussen today is 55-44 approve, while Gallup is tied at 45-45.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on January 23, 2017, 01:56:45 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on January 23, 2017, 02:02:33 PM
fascinating gap between approval and popularity polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on January 23, 2017, 02:03:45 PM
No way does Trump have 55% approval, that's garbage. The Gallup one seems correct.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 23, 2017, 02:08:31 PM
Past openings for Presidents:

Obama - 67%
Bush - 57%
Clinton - 58%
Bush - 51%
Reagan - 51%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 23, 2017, 02:12:01 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.
Sorry misread the disapproval


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 23, 2017, 02:14:43 PM
Favorability is general optimism. Approval is whether one likes the results. That is why I have two maps for now. Approval is more germane to the likelihood of re-election because politicians run on their records with the chance of winning or run from their records and lose.

I will keep the favorability polls up for a couple of months -- until I have approval ratings for ten so states, or perhaps seven relevant states. I have yet to decide what 'relevant' is. If I see Donald Trump with approval of 40% in Georgia or 52% in Michigan, then that might be enough.

Polls should be coming in soon in several states -- most likely swing states of 2016. I already have a favorability poll in North Carolina, but the Massachusetts estimate and polls of New York, New Jersey, and Maryland are of non-swing states. I think that Virginia has swung hard against Donald Trump.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: / on January 23, 2017, 02:17:45 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on January 23, 2017, 02:56:02 PM
Past openings for Presidents:

Obama - 67%
Bush - 57%
Clinton - 58%
Bush - 51%
Reagan - 51%

Through who? Maybe Trump can turn it around but Reagan got elected during a problem while Trump has the wind to his back. There is always another war or a short recession that improves in time that can save him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 23, 2017, 03:08:53 PM
No way does Trump have 55% approval, that's garbage. The Gallup one seems correct.

People like you are gift to every forum. Totall partisan hecks without objectivity. Disgusting.

55% job approval makes totally sense, also 45% favorability does.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 23, 2017, 03:10:57 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on January 23, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...

They must be total partisan hacks to assume it's not 55%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pikachu on January 23, 2017, 03:41:06 PM
So Rasmussen has Trump up 11 and Gallup has him down 10?

gallup has him even. there is a liar in this thread.

I think he just looked at the splash page and assumed the total was 100.

Someone on the last page said 45-55, I think.

Harry Enten (538, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/823591805564370945)

Nate Cohn (NY Times, Siena College, Democrat): 45-45 (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/823591838036721664)

I assume they have premium accounts...

45-45 is still pretty trash less than a week.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 23, 2017, 04:08:09 PM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on January 23, 2017, 04:09:40 PM
George H.W. Bush only had a 6% disapprove? I never did approve, and I actually have close family members who felt the same way.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on January 24, 2017, 01:20:19 AM

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whatsmore, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussygrabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 24, 2017, 03:50:06 AM

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whats more, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussy grabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes. He has basically told people that if they dislike him or his policies that it is the fault of those who 'failed' to support him and not of him or his policies. People who found him appalling on November 8 still find him appalling. The threat "change your political views or be miserable" is about what one expects in a dictatorship that does not go so far as to admonish people "comply or die".

He is going to demand sacrifices of people who did not vote for him with promises of miracles, but have no responsibility for the failure of the miracles to arrive. Of course some of us will continue to have memories of the vulgar, insulting manner of his campaign.

I predict that he will have a chaotic Presidency... and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again or some international crisis or natural disaster emerges that he cannot meet competently, then he will be the sort of leader who gets overthrown in a military coup in many countries other than America.

We are also seeing his managerial style, and persuasion is not part of it. His style is pure command> I could never get away with that as a substitute school teacher.

   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 24, 2017, 03:59:24 AM
"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 24, 2017, 04:29:08 AM
"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 24, 2017, 07:56:50 AM

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whatsmore, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussygrabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes, although the general breakdown in trust in politicians plays a role too - notice how three of the bottom four happen to be the three of the most recent presidents. Someone as unpleasant as Nixon only had 5% disapproving of him on taking office for example.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2017, 09:34:04 AM
Rassy today:

57-43 approve


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on January 24, 2017, 11:06:56 AM

Says it all really.

Even if you support him, can we all simply acknowledge that Trump is unpopular and it's not surprising?

He became president despite losing the popular vote by a greater amount than anyone whose managed entering the Oval Office. He ran a campaign that was proudly divisive against "anyone who isn't us". He was chronically vulgar, insulting, and obnoxious in a manner greater than literally every other major party candidate in history combined--supporters considered it "telling it like it is". Whatsmore, we can all agree that his REPEATED statements about pussygrabbing, women "being dangerous by working out of the home", liking to intrude on beauty show dressing rooms, etc.  etc. etc., proved even to his supporters that, although they preferred him to Clinton, he's still fundamentally a scumbag personally.

Most importantly, he has not said one thing or taken a single action since being elected to change that course and actually unify the country. His supporters saying that candidate Trump would develop gravitas and his non-ideological nature to build bridges have bupkis to show for that theory, and it ain't about to happen.

The only people trying to claim he's not unpopular are those that always supported him.

Yes, although the general breakdown in trust in politicians plays a role too - notice how three of the bottom four happen to be the three of the most recent presidents. Someone as unpleasant as Nixon only had 5% disapproving of him on taking office for example.

Even compared only to the most recent 3, Trump stands head and shoulders above (or rather below) the others.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 24, 2017, 12:13:19 PM
"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on January 24, 2017, 01:00:09 PM
Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.

Ending same-day registration and cutting early voting does nothing to prevent fraud. SDR already requires IDs and something like a utility bill to prove your residency, and afaik a number of states verify the address with a mailer right away and throw out the vote if they don't get a response. There is no decent argument to not have SDR, or to cut an existing program. We're not in the fking 1950s anymore. Technology allows safe implementation of this.

Early voting is no more a cause of fraud than election day voting, unless you believe that more voting = more fraud and thus is bad, in which case I'd recommend you reevaluate your entire idea of democracy and elections, because forcing in-person voting to a single workday, often during inconvenient hours for working class people, is absurd.

Voter id - look, I'm not going to argue this one. If Republicans made strong efforts to get everyone an ID, I'd have less of a problem. However, there is no proof voter ID is even needed. At least no proof that more fraud is occurring than citizens being disenfranchised.

And that's the gist of most of these laws making voting harder. Republicans say its to prevent "rampant fraud," yet they can't show us that any mass fraud is happening. A few (literally few) cases here and there doesn't justify shrinking the electorate by sometimes 1% - 6% or more.

Finally - why don't you think of voting restrictions as business regulations. You can't just keep piling on all these regulations, or else you make conducting proper business (voting) harder, thus reducing the volume of business (voting). By constantly piling on unnecessary regulations, you are picking winners and losers based on who is more likely to still vote despite increased regulations, which just happens to often be older, white, more wealthy conservatives. Even a Republican should be able to understand this - OH wait, they do. That's why we have these laws!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 24, 2017, 01:10:10 PM
Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 24, 2017, 01:21:54 PM
"and when the economy tanks and he lacks a clue on how to get it moving again"

LOL, will be a hard awakening for some delusional Democrats in 2018 ^^

Midterm elections usually break badly for the Party with the President in the White House. This time I acknowledge that the Republicans will likely make gains in the Senate. They will lose some gubernatorial seats... of course I will need to see some polls for Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  The Governors elected in 2018 may decide whether the Republican ticket gets necessary aid through voter suppression. The gubernatorial elections are the key elections.

Let's hope the Dems won't get help through voter fraud. But I doubt that Scott Foval and Bob Creamer are out of business. And I doubt that you have a problem with them ;-)

Your "voter supression" is nothing more than installing rules to make voter fraud harder - rules which are common in every European country.

Voter fraud is a rarity. The reward for fraudulent voting is so small in contrast to the possible consequences that such a deed as shoplifting is a more attractive offense. The people who would commit voter fraud are not so politically involved as the average.

Voter suppression is far easier to implement because it involves people who really know what they are doing -- people with access to demographic information that people must take considerable effort to get and use. These people know well enough to ensure that certain electoral precincts get plenty of voting devices and others get inadequate numbers of machine, or that voting be rushed through in some precincts and slowed in others. I may easily find out how some ethnic and occupational groups vote because of some limited research. Knowing one precinct from another is for people intimately involved in elections. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Young Conservative on January 24, 2017, 04:54:44 PM
Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.
It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on January 24, 2017, 07:15:42 PM
Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.
It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip, I would not call that amazing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Panda Express on January 24, 2017, 08:41:25 PM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 24, 2017, 10:34:40 PM
Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.
It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020

At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip, I would not call that amazing.

According to Nate Silver, incumbent Senators and Governors typically can estimate a gain of 6.5% in vote share from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season.  Politicians who do not have a lock on 50% of the vote typically must campaign vigorously to win re-election. Those who have already won an election to their office can turn voters on the margin to their side against the 'average' challenger. Very few incumbents with approval near 50% who have won the seat in a prior election lose their re-election bids; the most blatant example was Senator George Allen, who ran an incompetent and abrasive campaign against an unusually-strong challenger in a bad year for his Party. Note that appointed incumbents often fare badly in their first election, showing that they have never shgown themselves capable of appealing to voters.

The gain from campaigning in a contested election is about the same whether one has an approval rating around 38% or around 62%. Above 62%, one often ends up with a practically-uncontested election, and below about  28% one mostly has incumbents who choose not to run because they see themselves losing, withdraw early, or lose to primary challenges.

So what about politicians with hidden problems, like scandals that had not yet erupted? Those pols generally telegraph fear and pessimism and experience the aversion of political journalists  who have no desire to praise an idol with clay feet.
 
Most Presidents were Governors or Senators, so this model is relevant to the re-election election of incumbent Presidents. When I saw Obama with 45% approval in early 2012 I thought that with as competent a campaign as he ran in 2008 against the usual challenger he would win.    

We are three years away from the start of the Presidential campaign of 2020. We cannot yet know whether there will be a free and fair election; a rigged election would of course make any analysis of voluntary behavior in voting moot. Beware: bad governments that have much gain from corruption and cronyism generally ensure that there will be no honest election capable of sweeping them out. All rules that you know for American political life have been destroyed.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 25, 2017, 02:29:06 AM
Four days into his Presidency and now, more people disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I don't think that's ever happened before. Gallup now has 45% approving Trump, 46% disapproving.
It was better than expected. Four days into trump and it's already amazing. Unexpected for me. If this continues I'm all on board for 2020

True. But everything must go right, which means that he can't face:

1. an economic downturn
2. a war that goes badly
3. civil unrest
4. a diplomatic debacle
5. a natural disaster that he mishandles
6. a really-strong Democratic opponent
7. a Third Party or independent challenge from within or near his Party

... and be re-elected.


At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip

One does not project an election almost four years away at this stage. Early in 2009 I thought that Barack Obama would be re-elected in a landslide with 400 or more electoral votes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on January 25, 2017, 09:16:43 AM
At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip

Suuuuure.

Your confidence is misplaced. 45/45 are not good numbers for a newly elected president, they are not good numbers for an incumbent running for re-election either. You can plug your ears and pretend Trump is in good shape, but you'd just be lying to yourself.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2017, 10:05:34 AM
Morning Consult/POLITICO:

46% Approve
37% Disapprove

49% favorable
44% unfavorable

The survey polled 1,992 registered voters from Jan. 20-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/170103_crosstabs_POLITICO_v3_KD-1.pdf

Rasmussen remains at 57-43 approve today.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2017, 10:09:39 AM

It seems both Rasmussen and Gallup are outliers, but we need more data.

Currently, it looks like Trump starts with a slightly positive approval - but opposition is high (in fact, the highest of any President at the start).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2017, 10:13:48 AM
Today's average of 3 tracking polls (Rasmussen, Morning Consult and Gallup) is:

49% approve
42% disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on January 25, 2017, 10:15:40 AM
Haha, Rasmussen, what a joke.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 25, 2017, 11:59:10 AM
At the moment, Trump is at the bare minimum to have a chance at re-election. He has no room to slip

Suuuuure.

Your confidence is misplaced. 45/45 are not good numbers for a newly elected president, they are not good numbers for an incumbent running for re-election either. You can plug your ears and pretend Trump is in good shape, but you'd just be lying to yourself.

These are horrible numbers contrasted to the numbers for Obama at the same time. Of course the situation is very different. In 2009 the economy seemed to suggest a time about halfway through the meltdown between 1929 and 1932 (it really was analogous) and America had very badly-run wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The world scene was much safer before Trump than with him, and the economy has more potential for a downside than an upside. 

This is before President  Trump introduces legislation, and it is premature for me to predict how it will go. The pattern is that people who were marginal supporters in the election will usually be disappointed to some extent and that marginal non-supporters will remain skeptical. He can use the phrase "Make America Great Again" however much he wants, but now we get  to find what that means. If it means great only for some economic royalists, then he will be terribly unpopular.

Remember -- Donald Trump the campaigner used a phrase that people could interpret however they  wanted... and I'm guessing that most who liked it interpreted it to mean "Make America great again -- for me". Figure that people who remember the halcyon days of Industrial America when there were plenty of well-paying jobs in mines and factories that supported working-class prosperity, that such meant a return to the time when anyone with a strong body and a good work ethic could get and hold a job which doesn't require one to think too much. That may be impossible. More likely is an economic order in which economic elites grab everything possible and treat the masses badly, but expect everyone to see the plutocratic exploiters as unalloyed benefactors -- or else. "Or else" could mean imprisonment, torture, or death.

We are going to find "for whom" and "how" very soon. Most who did not believe Donald Trump are unlikely to be convinced. Many who did will be disappointed.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2017, 01:10:21 PM
Gallup is 46-45 approve today.

So, the average of todays 3 polls (Gallup, Rasmussen and Morning Consult) is 50-42 approve.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on January 25, 2017, 01:24:57 PM
Not quite the same thing, but Public Policy Polling's California poll out today showed that on a 33-59 margin, Californians disapprove of the way Trump has handled the transition.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/CaliforniaPollJanuary2017.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 25, 2017, 01:50:26 PM
PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents. 33-59. California did go 61-31 for Hillary Clinton.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/CaliforniaPollJanuary2017.pdf

Revision: it will be treated as favorability.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 25, 2017, 02:04:25 PM
PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 25, 2017, 03:27:37 PM
PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.


True. But it is what he starts with. Of course, California is hardly representative of America. I did not expect to see a poll of California of any kind. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 25, 2017, 04:17:22 PM
PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.


True. But it is what he starts with.

It's what he has on a question that's different from "presidential job approval".  Job approval as president is not job approval in managing the transition.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 25, 2017, 11:25:47 PM
PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.


True. But it is what he starts with.

It's what he has on a question that's different from "presidential job approval".  Job approval as president is not job approval in managing the transition.


I am not on thin ice. President Trump has been throwing his weight around even before being inaugurated, just as Barack Obama did in late 2008 and the first three weeks of January. Beyond any question, Barack Obama was more effective and got better results.

In any event, the state in question is California, a state that gets polled very rarely. The question is whether I put this in "approval" or "favorability". Second, California is one of the most strongly-Democratic states in America, and the split is very close to the electoral result. If anything, it even reflects a slight gain from the electoral result.

I was hoping to see polls from other states closer to the partisan edge, and the only ones close to the partisan edge for which I have seen any post-election polls are Virginia and North Carolina -- for favorability. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida will be far more interesting.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2017, 02:22:34 AM
I agree with Mr. Morden.

pbrower, you should remove that CA poll and only start with polls after his inauguration. This CA poll was clearly done before and shouldn't be included. There are going to be many CA polls anyway (PPIC, Field, SurveyUSA etc.)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2017, 10:05:31 AM
I agree with Mr. Morden.

pbrower, you should remove that CA poll and only start with polls after his inauguration. This CA poll was clearly done before and shouldn't be included. There are going to be many CA polls anyway (PPIC, Field, SurveyUSA etc.)

I have revised it to treat it as favorability.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 26, 2017, 11:51:37 AM
PPP: (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_12617.pdf)

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
44% Approve ..........................................................
44% Disapprove ......................................................
12% Not sure ..........................................................

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump? 
44% Favorable ........................................................
50% Unfavorable .................................................... 
7% ....................................................


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2017, 12:35:31 PM
Contrasting how people expect to see Donald trump against prior Presidents:

Who will be better -- this prior President or Donald Trump:

Who will end up being a better
President, Donald Trump or...

Barack Obama Obama 48-43
 
George W. Bush Bush 40-35

Bill Clinton Clinton 51-41

George H.W. Bush Bush 47-32

Ronald Reagan Reagan 57-17

Jimmy Carter Carter 45-42
 
Gerald Ford Ford 42-37

Richard Nixon Trump 40-31 

Trump has accomplished the incredible feat of making Democrats long for George W. Bush, who they think by a 62-14 spread will end up having been a better President than Trump. The numbers do  show the extent to which it is now Trump's Republican Party though.

 Among GOP voters he beats out George W. Bush 65/15, George H.W. Bush 63/17, and Gerald Ford 71/13. He loses out only to Ronald Reagan and even that's relatively competitive with Reagan getting 45% to Trump's 31%.

“Usually a new President comes in with voters having positive feelings and high
expectations for them,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“Donald Trump comes in with Americans expecting him to be the worst President
in 40 years from Day 1.”




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 26, 2017, 01:01:54 PM
Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2420)

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on January 26, 2017, 01:03:45 PM
Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2420)

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!

Plus, Quinnipiac is one of the most Republican major pollsters around. Didn't they have Mitt Romney winning in 2012?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2017, 04:51:20 PM
Donald Trump is less likely to be an adequate President than to be overthrown in a military coup. I can put him in the same sentence with Washington, Lincoln, and FDR in a comparison ... as an antithesis.  

America just does not do military coups.

The Armed Forces and the intelligence services apparently found President Obama easy to deal with. I never imagined that President Obama would get Osama bin Laden whacked.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2017, 05:00:54 PM
Your confidence is misplaced. 45/45 are not good numbers for a newly elected president, they are not good numbers for an incumbent running for re-election either. You can plug your ears and pretend Trump is in good shape, but you'd just be lying to yourself.

No, I'm not confident about anything. I don't even care about these polls, because they do not matter at this point in time and don't tell us anything about 2020. Anyway, 45% isn't even bad for him, especially when you consider how much of the opposition to him is concentrated in the population centers of California, Illinois, New York, Maryland, etc. (states that he doesn't need in 2020) and how unpopular he was before the election. While it's nice to see some polls, they don't tell us anything about 2020.

Sure. Which is why I would not have been troubled by Barack Obama having a 35% approval rating in Idaho, Oklahoma, or Wyoming. You know as well as I do that polls of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and California say little about 2020 because nobody has a reasonable expectation of Donald Trump winning any one of those states in a free and fair election.

But -- Virginia has been a swing state in the last three elections, and President Trump is doing badly there. I also see one for North Carolina, and North Carolina voters seem not to like him now. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2017, 05:10:30 PM
Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2420)

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!

...but also polarized.  Republicans like him, but Democrats don't by huge margins.

Looking at Trump's personal qualities, American voters say:

    56 - 39 percent that he is not honest;
    49 - 46 percent that he has good leadership skills;
    53 - 44 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
    62 - 33 percent that he is not level-headed;
    68 - 29 percent that he is a strong person;
    65 - 32 percent that he is intelligent.

Donald Trump will do more to divide the country, rather than unite the nation, voters say 55 - 40 percent. His policies will help their personal financial situation, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say they will hurt and 38 percent say they will make no difference.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 26, 2017, 07:06:07 PM
It's depressing that Trump can at least point to some polls showing him with a positive rating while Paul Keating cannot. :(

Also, check out this out for historical knowledge (or lack thereof) on the part of the public (from Quinny):

Best president of past 70 years:

30 percent name Ronald Reagan;
29 percent name Barack Obama;
12 percent pick John Kennedy;
9 percent select Bill Clinton;
3 percent each for Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush;
2 percent each for Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush;

Worst president of past 70 years:
24 percent for Richard Nixon;
23 percent for Barack Obama;
22 percent for George W. Bush;
10 percent for Jimmy Carter;
5 percent for Ronald Reagan;
4 percent for Bill Clinton;
3 percent for Lyndon Johnson;
2 percent for George H.W. Bush;
1 percent for Gerald Ford;
Less than 1 percent for Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on January 27, 2017, 02:40:26 AM
Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2420)

Approve 36%   
Disapprove 44%

Sad!

That's about where Bush was in 2007, right?  Hilarious.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 27, 2017, 09:41:50 AM
Total collapse on Rasmussen today:

From 59-41 to 55-45.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 27, 2017, 09:53:35 AM
Total collapse on Rasmussen today:

From 59-41 to 55-45.
Why are 100% of voters firmly in either camp?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 27, 2017, 11:33:46 AM
Here's my  wish list of states for polling:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina*
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

*Approval only, as I already have favorability.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 27, 2017, 12:55:59 PM
RCP now has a Trump Job Approval page.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 27, 2017, 01:11:24 PM
Gallup shows a steep fall too....Trump is at 45/48 now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 27, 2017, 02:09:54 PM
Here's my  wish list of states for polling:

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
North Carolina*
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia*
Wisconsin

*Approval only, as I already have favorability.


States with key Senate races, no? MO, IN, ND (rare, I know), MT

Then GA is one to watch. California too, since his numbers could sink a half dozen Republican Congressmen.

Only with reference to the Presidency.

I am surprised that I see so little about Senate races.  Those usually come with presidential approvals.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 27, 2017, 02:56:17 PM
A rather old poll (two weeks old) of Arizona, and by a Democratic pollster, relating to the US Senate race in 2018. Trump is barely ahead, 47-46 in favorability.  I am also adding white as a provision for a tie.

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  




[/quote]


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: LLR on January 28, 2017, 11:24:58 AM
Trump's approval rating according to Gallup is 45%

The quickest any elected president has fallen below 45% was Bill Clinton, who hit 45% in May 1993. If we include Truman, LBJ, and Ford, it still took Ford four months to get it that low. It's taken Trump only a week, and god knows how far it'll plummet now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Figueira on January 28, 2017, 11:32:26 AM
It's depressing that Trump can at least point to some polls showing him with a positive rating while Paul Keating cannot. :(

Also, check out this out for historical knowledge (or lack thereof) on the part of the public (from Quinny):

Best president of past 70 years:

30 percent name Ronald Reagan;
29 percent name Barack Obama;
12 percent pick John Kennedy;
9 percent select Bill Clinton;
3 percent each for Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush;
2 percent each for Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush;

Worst president of past 70 years:
24 percent for Richard Nixon;
23 percent for Barack Obama;
22 percent for George W. Bush;
10 percent for Jimmy Carter;
5 percent for Ronald Reagan;
4 percent for Bill Clinton;
3 percent for Lyndon Johnson;
2 percent for George H.W. Bush;
1 percent for Gerald Ford;
Less than 1 percent for Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy.

I always forget how unpopular Nixon is among normal people.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on January 28, 2017, 11:37:14 AM
I fail to see how he goes below ~35%. There's a certain sect of people in this country who will allow Trump to say or do literally anything, and that's a mandate Bush didn't even have.

I do care more about his state-by-state approval because it's true that a majority of his dissenters live in deep blue states.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Storebought on January 28, 2017, 12:31:52 PM
Again: it matters a great deal just who comprises this 35%-40% of the electorate that approves of Trump. If they are, as I deeply suspect, married whites with household incomes greater than 50000 a year, then Trump is not in any danger of facing a palace coup or a congressional GOP revolt.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OkThen on January 28, 2017, 01:12:15 PM
Trump approval down to 42/50 today per Gallup. Seems to be going the direction of QPac and not Ras...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 28, 2017, 01:24:13 PM
Obama didn't get to this point in his Gallup approval ratings until around August of 2010.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on January 28, 2017, 01:28:09 PM
Obama didn't get to this point in his Gallup approval ratings until around August of 2010.

And we're only on week 1! SAD!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on January 28, 2017, 02:15:04 PM
I fail to see how he goes below ~35%. There's a certain sect of people in this country who will allow Trump to say or do literally anything, and that's a mandate Bush didn't even have.

I do care more about his state-by-state approval because it's true that a majority of his dissenters live in deep blue states.

Personally, I see a lot of situations that could cause him to go lower. I think he has a hardened base of support around what you said, but not unbreakable. To name a few, a recession that has noticeable effects on the lives of that 35%, a massive corruption scandal with oodles of evidence, or perhaps him serving 2 terms and eventually after years of failing to do anything about their problems, generating 5-6 years worth of controversies in addition to the typical grievances that 2-termers build up, all could probably see him go lower since his ceiling appears to be very low.

However, I should say that even if 35% was guaranteed, that is still pretty awful. If that was his approval rating in 2018 and/or 2020, I'd be pretty scared for my job (or majorities) if I was a House or state Republican in a state/seat a Democrat could even conceivably win under the right conditions.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on January 28, 2017, 05:01:13 PM
Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 28, 2017, 07:56:16 PM
Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.

Less than the margin of error for approval, and slightly more than the margin of error for disapproval. It is also early.

This could be over his lie about the size of the crowd witnessing him being inaugurated and his denial of the size of the Women's March. As little as three months from now will those lies matter? Not likely. Maybe he learns something from this. Policies and their consequences will matter far more. Of course he can offend the sensibilities of people who did not vote for him in November and never will. But should he offend sensibilities of people who normally vote Republican, like farm and ranch interests, things will get ugly.

 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on January 28, 2017, 10:17:23 PM
Generally, I wouldn't consider approvals in the first week to give us a solid indication yet as to what is signal and what is noise, but going from 45/45 to 42/50 seems like a noteworthy shift in the course of just one week.

Less than the margin of error for approval, and slightly more than the margin of error for disapproval. It is also early.

This could be over his lie about the size of the crowd witnessing him being inaugurated and his denial of the size of the Women's March. As little as three months from now will those lies matter? Not likely. Maybe he learns something from this. Policies and their consequences will matter far more. Of course he can offend the sensibilities of people who did not vote for him in November and never will. But should he offend sensibilities of people who normally vote Republican, like farm and ranch interests, things will get ugly.

 

True, I'm not trying to draw too many conclusions from this early on. By the way, Trump doesn't really learn from his mistakes the way other people do; vindicating humiliation and seeking approval from a base of support are the primary motivating drives of narcissists, and they will engage in all sorts of self-destructive behavior in order to achieve those criteria. He will continue to make the same mistakes ad nauseam in service of his own ego.

I agree that policy and executive actions will end up mattering more, and given the current rate of things, he will likely bomb on that end as well. The independents and those whom provided tentative support will be the first to swing against him before establishment Republicans will, and his core base of supporters will be the last in line. He could easily sink to 33% approval or possibly even lower without suffering any losses from his base of core supporters.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 29, 2017, 01:43:39 PM
Gallup: 42/51 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 29, 2017, 02:12:39 PM
Gallup: 42/51 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

Going down down down.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: anthonyjg on January 29, 2017, 02:18:47 PM
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/825781634330980352 (https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/825781634330980352)

Quote
Days until achieving MAJORITY disapproval from @Gallup

Reagan: 727
Bush I: 1336
Clinton: 573
Bush II: 1205
Obama: 936

Trump: 8. days.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on January 29, 2017, 02:25:39 PM
So, when can we expect Trump's approvals to reach Bush '08 levels?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 29, 2017, 02:48:32 PM

At this rate, the GOP will be destroyed in 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on January 29, 2017, 02:54:39 PM
This chart though.

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on January 29, 2017, 03:16:54 PM
Guys, I think we are reacting too quickly. The Trump Cult has been boxed in to support their man. That probably has him with a floor of 40% until their misgivings break the dam and he flounders. But for a while, he will probably stay at 40-45% for approval ratings.

Rasmussen is on some serious weed, though. But in general his approval ratings are all over the place. There's no convergence per se, yet, so it's early to say.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on January 29, 2017, 03:22:50 PM
Guys, I think we are reacting too quickly. The Trump Cult has been boxed in to support their man. That probably has him with a floor of 40% until their misgivings break the dam and he flounders. But for a while, he will probably stay at 40-45% for approval ratings.

Rasmussen is on some serious weed, though. But in general his approval ratings are all over the place. There's no convergence per se, yet, so it's early to say.

It's not his core Trump has to worry about. It's the more moderate 5-10% of voters who moved to Trump at the last minute.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on January 29, 2017, 03:43:03 PM
"You guys NEVER stop thinking about elections" - Regular poster on American election webforum


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on January 29, 2017, 03:46:14 PM
"You guys NEVER stop thinking about elections" - Regular poster on American election webforum

I don't like how people always are in before I have a chance to say something witty along these lines. Damn you!

:P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 29, 2017, 03:47:16 PM
Guys, I think we are reacting too quickly. The Trump Cult has been boxed in to support their man. That probably has him with a floor of 40% until their misgivings break the dam and he flounders. But for a while, he will probably stay at 40-45% for approval ratings.

Rasmussen is on some serious weed, though. But in general his approval ratings are all over the place. There's no convergence per se, yet, so it's early to say.

It's not his core Trump has to worry about. It's the more moderate 5-10% of voters who moved to Trump at the last minute.

Yeah, his cultists are actually a very small portion of the electorate. More like the 30% that he had during Pussygate.

80-90 million people seems a bit too high for the word 'cult' to apply.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 29, 2017, 04:36:41 PM
Just lol at this board. Finally get something to cling to after your catastrophe that was the 2016 election.

You think you have him beat when he literally has 4 more years of being your president, AT LEAST.

It's just comical. It's like you guys NEVER stop thinking about elections, even after getting your hearts ripped out in the last 2 election cycles.

give it a damn rest and focus on policy, you (insult redacted and reported)

Republicans practically own policy... with a severe bumbler offending the sensibilities of a majority of Americans, so count on resistance when things go wrong. Besides, for most of us, our exercise in politics gets reduced to elections. Yes, we are stuck with Donald t5rump and a crushing GOP majority in both houses of Congress for at least two years.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 30, 2017, 10:32:13 AM
What sample does Gallup use? I guess it's the standard media D+10-15 sample that worked so well for Hillary :-D


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 30, 2017, 10:47:20 AM
What sample does Gallup use? I guess it's the standard media D+10-15 sample that worked so well for Hillary :-D

I suppose it did, given that national polls were spot on the popular vote results.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 30, 2017, 11:44:56 AM
What sample does Gallup use? I guess it's the standard media D+10-15 sample that worked so well for Hillary :-D

Of course because America is D+ 10-15 and the national polls were correct.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 30, 2017, 12:12:24 PM
Rasmussen
Jan 25 – Jan 29
1,500 Likely Voters

53% approve   47% disapprove   

So even Ras is going the other way.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on January 30, 2017, 01:13:34 PM
Gallup - 43% Approve, 50% Disapprove

A net improvement from -9 to -7.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2017, 02:12:12 PM
Both Gallup and Rasmussen seem to converge more and more to show a polarized electorate.

Soon, Trump will be roughly 50-50 ... (or he already is).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on January 31, 2017, 02:34:49 AM
What sample does Gallup use? I guess it's the standard media D+10-15 sample that worked so well for Hillary :-D

Of course because America is D+ 10-15 and the national polls were correct.

Funny that you're still lying :-D The last popular vote polls were appr. D+5 samples, not D+10-15. But I know, reality and Facts are hard for Leftists ;-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on January 31, 2017, 10:07:12 AM
Tuesday, January 31, 2017

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.



And the crashing continues.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on January 31, 2017, 11:37:02 AM
How often do approval rating polls get updated?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on January 31, 2017, 11:44:26 AM
How often do approval rating polls get updated?

It depends on the poll, but tracking polls like Rasmussen and Gallup usually update daily.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2017, 12:48:51 PM
PPP had a poll on Milwaukee County. Needless to say it is extremely hostile to Donald Trump and his loyal partner Governor Scott Walker.  I am excited at the prospect of seeing a poll from a state that our dicta... excuse me, President,  won.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 31, 2017, 12:52:30 PM
PPP had a poll on Milwaukee County. Needless to say it is extremely hostile to Donald Trump and his loyal partner Governor Scott Walker.  I am excited at the prospect of seeing a poll from a state that our dicta... excuse me, President,  won.

It's worth noting that the poll in question has Trump actually doing better there than he did in the election.

Also, anyone have the new Gallup number?
Not yet, but I've been hearing it's not good.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 31, 2017, 01:00:44 PM
New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

Approve 36%
Disapprove 55%

Also lol Chris Christie:

Approve 17%
Disapprove 78%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on January 31, 2017, 01:01:15 PM
Looks like Governor Fatass is finished politically unless Trump saves him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2017, 01:01:29 PM
PPP had a poll on Milwaukee County. Needless to say it is extremely hostile to Donald Trump and his loyal partner Governor Scott Walker.  I am excited at the prospect of seeing a poll from a state that our dicta... excuse me, President,  won.

It's worth noting that the poll in question has Trump actually doing better there than he did in the election.

It's also a rather elderly sample, with 68% of the people polled over 46.

As a national concern, the big question in Wisconsin will be whether the Governor will get re-elected. He's obviously going to get little help in Milwaukee County.  Should a Democrat win the Governorship in Wisconsin, then Wisconsin will be a very tough hold for the  President.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 31, 2017, 01:03:14 PM
Gallup same as yesterday 43/50


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2017, 01:04:23 PM
Trump's approval is 36-55 in NJ, not 26-55 as someone posted above.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2425


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on January 31, 2017, 01:07:54 PM

Disapproval went up point to 51% (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 31, 2017, 01:09:46 PM

Disapproval went up point to 51% (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)


Ouch


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2017, 01:14:33 PM
The NJ poll seems to be the first state poll showing a Trump approval rating.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2017, 01:31:53 PM
(moved to accommodate new data)






Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2017, 01:39:42 PM
pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on January 31, 2017, 02:02:34 PM
What does RAS consider likely voters and why are they polling them in January?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2017, 03:44:06 PM
pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf

It's easy to see why the border wall and a high tariff against Mexico would be unpopular in Arizona. It would be a disaster from an ecological and economic standpoint... and it would even be costly in human life just to build. It makes far more sense to rush the Arizona 85 link between I-8 and I-10 and  complete the Phoenix-Las Vegas expressway (which are in progress)  -- and maybe create a freeway link to "Arizona's beach" at Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Tougher enforcement of the border crossings against illegal immigration and drug trafficking? Sure. Obama already did that.  

I did not see the overall topline for issues other than the tariff and the border wall, so I can't modify my map yet.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2017, 05:02:57 PM
What does RAS consider likely voters and why are they polling them in January?

Likely voters are the people statistically least likely to miss a vote.  Those are older, more conservative voters with higher levels of income and education.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on January 31, 2017, 05:14:51 PM
pbrower2a, a programming question. At some point, why don't you make a Trump Approval Rating 2.0 Approval rating and just edit your map whenever a new state poll comes out?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on January 31, 2017, 05:35:03 PM
pbrower2a, a programming question. At some point, why don't you make a Trump Approval Rating 2.0 Approval rating and just edit your map whenever a new state poll comes out?

For now the statewide polls have been coming out slowly enough (less than one per week) for either favorability or approval. I had to go back three pages to have the map that I copy, one that has both favorability and approval. I expect approval to become more relevant in about a moth (which is March).

Once a week? At this point I might be lucky to find one poll.

I often make comments when I enter a poll, and I expect to see comments about my comments especially if they are off-color or macabre.  

Addendum: I have moved a polling map to accommodate a poll that I did not expect to see.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 31, 2017, 06:17:07 PM
Reuters/Ipsos also has a tracking poll on Trump's job approval:

https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170101-20170131/collapsed/true/spotlight/1


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 01, 2017, 04:54:29 AM
Quinnipiac, New Jersey. The first APPROVAL poll of any state that does not mention 'the transition'.

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve               36%    87%     7%    36%    44%    29%    38%    49%
Disapprove           55      7     88     54     47     63     55     42
DK/NA                    9      6      5     11      9      8      6      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              34%    29%    38%    42%    48%    39%    43%    20%
Disapprove           61     61        54       48        45       52       49       70
DK/NA                 4     11      8      9      7      8      8     10
 

Sure, it is New Jersey, which is a very sure D state in Presidential races.  Donald Trump got 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016. The younger the voter, the less likely one is to support President Trump... the only demographic groups for which President Trump isn't under water is white men and whites without college degrees.

New Jersey of course is NOT a microcosm of America, but if the pattern of many people who voted for him in 2016 disapproving of the President that they voted for, then Election Night 2020 could be a rude awakening for the GOP -- perhaps as rude as Election Night 2008. Four percent of the electorate peeling away from the GOP by 2020 means that the Republican nominee (almost certainly an incumbent) gets 42% of the vote.

pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf


This is more or less job approval. His EO's or tariff proposal are both heavily underwater, and there's more Republicans than Dems polled. That should scare Flake.

I found the poll at KPNX-TV (NBC-12, Phoenix) :

Quote
The Arizona poll shows 49 percent of registered voters view Trump unfavorably, while 39 percent have a favorable opinion, according to the survey, done Friday and Saturday by Phoenix-based Data Orbital.

http://www.12news.com/news/politics/arizona-voters-disapprove-of-trump-performance-new-poll-shows/394516763

Context  on specific policies suggests approval, and media may not use the words "favorability" and "approval" as we do. "Favorabilty" is expectation; "approval" is about results.  

In any event, this surely suggests that President Trump is having a very bad time in a state that he really must win in 2020 if he is to be re-elected.



Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  







Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 10:23:07 AM
pbrower, the AZ poll is clearly about favorable ratings only.

From the PDF (https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf):

Quote
Q: In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of President Donald Trump?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 10:28:21 AM
SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Among RV only, it's 49-50 disapprove.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on February 01, 2017, 10:35:43 AM
Rasmussen
Jan 29 – Jan 31
1,500 Likely Voters

53% Approve   47%   Disapprove

SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Politico/Morning Consult
Jan 26 – Jan 28
1,991 Registered Voters

49% Approve   41%   Disapprove

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval

LOL, Rassy is trolling again.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 12:19:38 PM
CA (SurveyUSA, 800 adults polled yesterday):

34% approve
52% disapprove

Do you support? Or do you oppose? ... a new policy that prevents persons from 7 nations from entering the United States? Or, do you not know enough to say?

36-46 oppose

Should California withdraw from the United States and become an entirely new nation? Or should California remain part of the United States?

18-68 oppose

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bd38a6c0-bce1-4e2e-b7e7-9f6626d8bc6a


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 12:25:37 PM
The CA and NJ polls suggest Trump's approval ratings nationally are about split or slightly positive.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 01, 2017, 01:19:27 PM
Gallup at 43-52 with Strong Disapproval > Strong Approve by a quite a bit. I think it'd be best to wait until mid-March for approval to be actually meaningful, though

Dayum


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 01, 2017, 01:21:03 PM
YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on February 01, 2017, 01:33:26 PM
YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 01, 2017, 01:48:36 PM
YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

Because RCP


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 01, 2017, 02:11:30 PM
SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Among RV only, it's 49-50 disapprove.

Correction made and noted.

CA (SurveyUSA, 800 adults polled yesterday):

34% approve
52% disapprove

Do you support? Or do you oppose? ... a new policy that prevents persons from 7 nations from entering the United States? Or, do you not know enough to say?

36-46 oppose

Should California withdraw from the United States and become an entirely new nation? Or should California remain part of the United States?

18-68 oppose

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bd38a6c0-bce1-4e2e-b7e7-9f6626d8bc6a

Map adjusted above.   

The 18% of Californians who would like to secede from America and go off on their own is alarming. There was little known sentiment for such before Donald Trump was elected President. To be sure, Barack Obama was a great match for California and Donald Trump is a horrible match.

California went (rounding up) 62-32 for Hillary Clinton. I see no significant difference between the positive vote for Trump and his approval rating. The "Muslim ban" does not yet hurt Donald Trump.  I'm not saying that it won't.    


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 01, 2017, 02:18:17 PM
YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Trump continues to do poorly among the rich by the standards of what we’re used to from Republicans:

income under $50k: +/-0
income $50-100k: +7
income over $100k: -25

Now, the over $100k group is the smallest sample, so MoE is big, and I don’t believe the gap is that huge, but most other polls also have $50-100k as Trump’s strongest group, with him doing comparatively poorly among those over $100k.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 03:04:34 PM
YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

Because there's a RV breakdown in YouGov's PDF release.

And RCP always uses RV over adults.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 01, 2017, 03:15:50 PM
YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Trump continues to do poorly among the rich by the standards of what we’re used to from Republicans:

income under $50k: +/-0
income $50-100k: +7
income over $100k: -25

Now, the over $100k group is the smallest sample, so MoE is big, and I don’t believe the gap is that huge, but most other polls also have $50-100k as Trump’s strongest group, with him doing comparatively poorly among those over $100k.


Btw, here's the full poll:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qg8b1mgh4b/econToplines.pdf

bring back waterboarding:
favor 32%
oppose 40%

build a wall on the Mexico border
favor 40%
oppose 44%

stop government grants to cities that provide services to illegal immigrants
favor 48%
oppose 34%

build the Dakota Access pipeline
favor 36%
oppose 37%

move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
favor 25%
oppose 26%

reduce the number of refugees the US accepts to 50,000
favor 47%
oppose 29%

stop admitting Syrian refugees entirely
favor 38%
oppose 36%

stop admitting all refugees to the US for four months
favor 40%
oppose 37%

90 day ban on people entering the US from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen
favor 48%
oppose 31%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 03:33:33 PM
Interesting ...

All recent polls seem to suggest that Democrats are on the losing side of the issue of Trump's travel ban.

This thing is highly popular with Republicans and Indies actually.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 01, 2017, 03:39:32 PM
Interesting ...

All recent polls seem to suggest that Democrats are on the losing side of the issue of Trump's travel ban.

This thing is highly popular with Republicans and Indies actually.

The issue most are having is with legal residents getting stopped/deported. Trump is on the right side of public opinion partially, however, it gets more complicated when you include green card holders.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 01, 2017, 04:02:28 PM
Isn't the fact that he's only -18 in California bad news for him? It's the same argument made when Hillary was holding massive leads in California but was narrowly leading nationally.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2017, 04:05:57 PM
Isn't the fact that he's only -18 in California bad news for him? It's the same argument made when Hillary was holding massive leads in California but was narrowly leading nationally.

Why would this be bad for Trump ?

He's down 18 in CA, when he lost the state by 30.

Which means it's likely that his national approval is even, or slightly positive.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 01, 2017, 04:14:28 PM
Interesting ...

All recent polls seem to suggest that Democrats are on the losing side of the issue of Trump's travel ban.

This thing is highly popular with Republicans and Indies actually.

The issue most are having is with legal residents getting stopped/deported. Trump is on the right side of public opinion partially, however, it gets more complicated when you include green card holders.

He seems to have surrendered on green card holders:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/white-house-green-card-holders-no-longer-covered-by-trump-executive-order-234505

But there are plenty of temporary legal residents (like students) who are still affected.  Not sure what is the best way to cover those people in a poll question like this.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 01, 2017, 06:11:38 PM
Gallup:
Jan 31:

Disapprove 52% (+1)
Approve 43% (nc)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 02, 2017, 09:58:35 AM
lol

Quote
PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls

We'll have some fresh numbers on impeachment out tomorrow- support already increasing after less than 2 weeks.


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/826949540183957504

Haha


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 02, 2017, 10:11:23 AM
lol

Quote
PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls

We'll have some fresh numbers on impeachment out tomorrow- support already increasing after less than 2 weeks.


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/826949540183957504

Haha

On Jan. 26 they had 35% in favour of impeaching Trump, and 50% against it. I wonder what surge is to expect here.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/01/americans-think-trump-will-be-worst-president-since-nixon.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 02, 2017, 11:39:21 AM
lol

Quote
PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls

We'll have some fresh numbers on impeachment out tomorrow- support already increasing after less than 2 weeks.


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/826949540183957504

Haha

On Jan. 26 they had 35% in favour of impeaching Trump, and 50% against it. I wonder what surge is to expect here.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/01/americans-think-trump-will-be-worst-president-since-nixon.html

40% favor impeaching him
48% oppose

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/02/after-2-weeks-voters-yearn-for-obama.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 02, 2017, 11:40:56 AM
lol

Quote
PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls

We'll have some fresh numbers on impeachment out tomorrow- support already increasing after less than 2 weeks.


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/826949540183957504

Haha

On Jan. 26 they had 35% in favour of impeaching Trump, and 50% against it. I wonder what surge is to expect here.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/01/americans-think-trump-will-be-worst-president-since-nixon.html

40% favor impeaching him
48% oppose

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/02/after-2-weeks-voters-yearn-for-obama.html
Wow


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 02, 2017, 11:49:22 AM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 02, 2017, 11:58:56 AM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 02, 2017, 12:07:00 PM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

At this point, I don't mind.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 02, 2017, 12:07:33 PM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

25th or straight up impeachment? I do think when impeachment nears 45% the GOP will start fleeing. But I don't anticipate impeachment or 25th until past the 2018 midterms because the GOP is far more vulnerable in 2020 in the Senate.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 02, 2017, 01:15:42 PM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

25th or straight up impeachment? I do think when impeachment nears 45% the GOP will start fleeing. But I don't anticipate impeachment or 25th until past the 2018 midterms because the GOP is far more vulnerable in 2020 in the Senate.  

Nah. Weren't Bush's over 50%? Dems had the Senate and they never tried

Yeah, but Bush had been in office much longer


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 02, 2017, 01:17:10 PM
Lol at the 3% of Trump voters that also say they favor impeachment.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 02, 2017, 01:32:17 PM
Lol at the 3% of Trump voters that also say they favor impeachment.

#Trumpgrets


Gallup approvals remained unchanged today btw at 43/52.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 02, 2017, 01:53:40 PM
NJ (Fairleigh Dickinson University):

Among adults: 37-50
Among RV only: 38-51

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2017/170202


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: rob in cal on February 02, 2017, 06:00:23 PM
  I'm not surprised much of Trumps immigration actions are getting decent levels of support. Whenever there is a general poll about whether people support more legal immigration, less, or just stay the same, its usually a plurality in favor of less, a fair amount for the same, and a small amount for more immigration.  This doesn't directly relate to most of Trumps immigration EO's but does indicate the general lay of the land politically on the overall issue of immigration.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 02, 2017, 10:03:24 PM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

That's a... pretty big jump.

President Pence seems more and more likely every day.

25th or straight up impeachment? I do think when impeachment nears 45% the GOP will start fleeing. But I don't anticipate impeachment or 25th until past the 2018 midterms because the GOP is far more vulnerable in 2020 in the Senate.  

Nah. Weren't Bush's over 50%? Dems had the Senate and they never tried

The VP who would have succeeded Dubya was also seen as culpable. A double-impeachment after January 2007 would have gotten America Nancy Pelosi as President, which would have made things very tricky.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 02, 2017, 11:11:42 PM
New Presidents usually try to do things to reach out to those who voted 'wrong', trying to ensure them that those who voted 'wrong' will not have cause to distrust the new President or that the President will solve the problems that people not voting for him still want solved. Donald Trump has faulted them instead for not falling in line. The 46% who voted for him is his maximum of possible support.  President Trump may satisfy GOP core support, but he does so while alienating just about everyone else. Contrast Barack Obama, who left no doubt that he wanted to solve the economic problems of Republicans, too, when the economy looked as if it were in a reprise of the economic meltdown eerily similar to that of 1929-1933.   

The executive orders that a Federal court overturns quickly on Constitutional grounds or for violating statute demonstrate a contempt for precedent contrary to the norm of nearly 230 years of American government, and perhaps even more if one goes back to Colonial times.

People who voted against him in 2016 are beginning to dislike him even more. But such people have only one vote.  That is the hope for Republicans. It is a huge gamble; Democrats need only win a few more thousand votes in the right places either by winning new, probably  younger non-voters of 2016, attrition of Trump voters of 2016 due to death or infirmity,  better campaigning, or turning some voters for President (and likely other offices) from Trump. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 03, 2017, 12:36:34 AM
So, most people who disapprove of Trump already want to impeach him?  That's insane.

Agreed. Not only that, but as idiotic as Trump has been other than potentially violating the emoluments clause (and Congress could pass a law that would make that problem go away) there nothing he's done yet that would rise to the level of an impeachable offense.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 03, 2017, 01:40:07 AM
So what is impeachable?

1. Any deed generally recognized as criminal in nature as a felony offense, including but not limited to murder, rape, theft, perjury, filing a false tax return, violation of human rights, obstruction of justice,  or participation in a criminal enterprise.

2. Violations of international law, including war crimes of any kind or unilateral abrogation of treaties.

3. Failure to perform the minimal deeds of the President, exercise of powers explicitly denied to
 the President, or performing deeds incompatible with serving as President.

4. Misrepresentation of eligibility to be President.


My suggestions.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 03, 2017, 07:53:40 AM
CBS News Poll:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 48%

Travel Ban:

Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

Temporary Ban on Refugees:

Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

Source (https://www.scribd.com/document/338306835/CBS-News-poll-on-Trump-travel-ban-record-low-approval-rating-for-Trump#from_embed)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 08:45:50 AM
CBS News Poll:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 48%

Travel Ban:

Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

Temporary Ban on Refugees:

Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

Source (https://www.scribd.com/document/338306835/CBS-News-poll-on-Trump-travel-ban-record-low-approval-rating-for-Trump#from_embed)

Here's the question wording:

"As you may know, Donald Trump has issued an executive order that temporarily bans people from entering the U.S. who are from the countries of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. Do you approve or disapprove of this action?"

And the other question:

" As you may know, Donald Trump’s executive order also temporarily bans any refugees, those forced to leave their country due to violence or persecution, from entering the United States. Do you approve or disapprove of temporarily banning refugees from entering the U.S.?"

As you said, 45% approve and 51% disapprove of both.

Poll conducted Feb. 1-2.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 03, 2017, 10:38:33 AM
Clear mode effect. Trump does much worse with live interview polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 03, 2017, 10:41:01 AM
Clear mode effect. Trump does much worse with live interview polls.

Rassy is also doing likely voters, which is absurd this far out from anything


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 03, 2017, 10:45:45 AM
Clear mode effect. Trump does much worse with live interview polls.

Rassy is also doing likely voters, which is absurd this far out from anything

True, but PPP/YouGov/SurveyMonkey are all showing approvals with net's of around 0. CBS, Q-poll, and Gallup all -8ish.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on February 03, 2017, 12:04:52 PM
So the travel ban isn't this popular EO its been touted as?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on February 03, 2017, 12:06:46 PM
So the travel ban isn't this popular EO its been touted as?

No it isn't. People like it in theory but the devil is in the details. The fact that the rollout was so botched likely made it less popular too.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on February 03, 2017, 01:35:42 PM
Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 03, 2017, 01:46:05 PM
Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.

The economy is good, he hasn't made any major changes, and he's touted every little deal as his baby. I get it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 03, 2017, 03:37:21 PM
Interestingly, Trump's approval rating on the economy is running about 13 points ahead of his overall approval rating.

It's still the Obama economy, one in which his stewardship still pays off in good results. President Trump has yet to call Americans to make great sacrifices on behalf of special interests as those special interests want.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 04:10:56 PM
CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 04:21:34 PM
CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


“As you may know, Donald Trump signed an executive order which prohibits travel to the U.S. for the next three months by citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries, and suspends the U.S. refugee program for four months while reducing the total number of refugees the U.S. will accept this year. Overall, do you favor or oppose this executive order?”

favor 47%
oppose 53%

Also, 29% not only favor the order, but say they would like to see it expanded.

“Do you think the executive order…?”
makes the US safer from terrorism 41%
makes the US less safe from terrorism 46%

“Do you think the executive order does more to…?”
protect American values by keeping out people who don’t support them 43%
harm American values by preventing those seeking asylum from entering the US 49%

“Do you favor or oppose allowing refugees from Syria to seek asylum in the United States?”
favor 54%
oppose 45%

Should the US build a wall along the entire Mexican border?
yes 38%
no 60%

Trump job approval by region…
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -25
South: +8
West: -20

Support for travel ban by region…
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -19
South: +6
West: -14

Support for the travel ban by education level…
college grad: -24
non-college grad: +/-0


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 04:22:44 PM
Support for building a wall on the Mexican border now at the lowest level it's been since CNN first polled it in 2015.  Back then it was at 52%, and now at 38%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 03, 2017, 04:43:20 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 03, 2017, 04:48:08 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger. The midwest is gerrymandered pretty effectively to help the GOP. But, and this is a big but, that also gives the Dems a major opening in a wave. Lots of seats in play, even with a slight GOP lean.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 03, 2017, 04:51:29 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger. The midwest is gerrymandered pretty effectively to help the GOP. But, and this is a big but, that also gives the Dems a major opening in a wave. Lots of seats in play, even with a slight GOP lean.

It also would protects the danger seats in MN, PA, OH, and WI.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 03, 2017, 04:53:54 PM
CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


Harry Enten pointed out that when a president has a less than 50% approval rating, his party will on average lose 36 house seats in the midterm. This only applies to his rating at the time of the midterm of course.

36 is enough to flip, of course, which would bring welcomed relief.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 05:01:21 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 03, 2017, 05:10:48 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


That's an interesting point. His job approval has, thus far, usually exceeded his favorability numbers. However, that could just be reg GOP voters saying "we like you doing X, but you're still an ass." Weird times.

On a related note, one theory I heard is that, because a good number of people assumed Hillary would win (2-3% of voters), they went with their GOP rep/senator to provide a check on her. Now, with Trump in there, I could see something similar happening in reverse, with people voting Dem just to keep him in check, not because they like the Dems... add that to the agitated Dem base... I can see a lot of seats moving in weird directions much faster than anticipated or in line with priors.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 03, 2017, 05:45:53 PM
CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove


Among the 53% who disapprove of Trump in the CNN/ORC poll, 43% have a "strong" disapproval of him.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/donald-trump-approval-rating/index.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 03, 2017, 08:12:31 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


That's an interesting point. His job approval has, thus far, usually exceeded his favorability numbers. However, that could just be reg GOP voters saying "we like you doing X, but you're still an ass." Weird times.

On a related note, one theory I heard is that, because a good number of people assumed Hillary would win (2-3% of voters), they went with their GOP rep/senator to provide a check on her. Now, with Trump in there, I could see something similar happening in reverse, with people voting Dem just to keep him in check, not because they like the Dems... add that to the agitated Dem base... I can see a lot of seats moving in weird directions much faster than anticipated or in line with priors.


A poll of the Midwest soon after the election showed him with an overall edge in favorability in the Midwest.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 03, 2017, 11:10:23 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


I'd like to know the source of this favorability rating. I would love to put it on the map because the state is Ohio, usually a slightly-R swing state. 

Ohioans must have found themselves getting something very different from what Donald Trump offered. 

Ohio votes heavily on bread-and-butter issues. Donald Trump has first addressed entry to the US by Muslims (a non-issue) and his proposed Border Wall (and few states are farther from the Mexican border than Ohio). The Border Wall will not create jobs in Ohio.

Add to this, Ohio is traditionally a Clean Government state. The Buckeye State shows little tolerance for corruption and scandal. Or is it a dictatorial President with a reactionary agenda?

   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 11:23:26 PM
The -8% in the Midwest is probably the worst number for Trump and Republicans.

Subsample error and all, but yeah. If he's bleeding support in the Midwest, he's putting a fair number of GOP house members in danger.

I'm not sure if he's really bleeding support.  Or rather, while whatever post-election "bounce" he might have gotten has faded, I'm not sure if he's doing any worse now than he was on election day.  The Ohio exit poll, for example had his favorability #s in the state at:

favorable 41%
unfavorable 57%

Yet he won the state convincingly.  He was underwater on favorability almost everywhere, but still won.  Will the same hold on job approval though?  I'm not sure.


I'd like to know the source of this favorability rating. I would love to put it on the map because the state is Ohio, usually a slightly-R swing state. 
   

The source of that favorability rating is the election day exit poll for Ohio:

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/ohio/president


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 03, 2017, 11:39:43 PM
The poll was an electoral exit poll.

I'm guessing that Ohioans voted for Donald Trump despite low expectations.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 03, 2017, 11:44:54 PM
The poll was an electoral exit poll.

I'm guessing that Ohioans voted for Donald Trump despite low expectations.

There were many states where Trump was underwater in favorability according to the exit poll, but still defeated Clinton in the voting.  Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina...he won all of them handily, yet the exit poll gave him net negative favorability in each.  Heck, in Utah he was at 34% favorable, 63% unfavorable.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 04, 2017, 01:43:51 AM
Under-performance of low expectations.

Three things to say about a parliamentary system:

1. Only persons who have political experience would go to the highest offices. Thus no Donald Trump. Before you say "What about Dwight Eisenhower?" -- he would be an obvious Member of Parliament.

2. Someone so awful as Donald Trump would be deposed in a vote of no confidence.

3. The potential for pointless rule by decree -- and nobody who has used the Executive Order so frequently, pointlessly, and ineptly as Donald Trump -- would be very low.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on February 04, 2017, 10:12:05 AM
The Buckeye State shows little tolerance for corruption and scandal.

Mostly, but the Cincinnati suburbs seem to put up with it quite a bit.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on February 05, 2017, 10:05:02 AM
He always polled badly, even the day he won over 300 electoral votes.

I personally don't think 40-50% is that bad for him. For liberals, they're probably disgusted it isn't 15%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 05, 2017, 01:01:18 PM
Today's Gallup approvals:

Approve 42% (-2)
Disapprove 53% (+3)

That's the highest disapproval for Trump in a Gallup poll so far.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 05, 2017, 01:43:29 PM
He always polled badly, even the day he won over 300 electoral votes.

Yes, and he ran against a candidate who was almost as disliked as him, and trusted even less (somehow). Trump isn't some magical politician whose unpopularity is irrelevant. It just so happens that when you pit two unliked candidates against each other, that attribute seems to cancel out in that race.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 05, 2017, 03:48:22 PM
Let's not forget that there is "disapproval" and "strong disapproval". 50% disapproval with 15% 'strong disapproval' is very different from 50% disapproval with 45% 'strong disapproval'. The semantics may not be obvious, but people with 'strong disapproval' are more likely to badger elected officials of the party of the President that they despise. Disliking the agenda is one thing; seeing the President as a would-be dictator who will take away guns or the right to contraception is very different. 

The incumbents in the same Party with the President widely and strongly disapproved get into the no-win situation in which they must either run on their records of support for the Party and the President or run from their records -- and lose.

Gerrymandering has well served Republicans when the electorate was polarized and easily defined on demographic realities. Republicans have created multitudes of R+5 or so districts, and in those politicians suitable for R+30 districts can get elected. But create  a situation in which the Democrats can pick off R+5 districts in which the Republican is suited for representing an R+30 district, and Republicans can lose -- big. 

Do I see this yet? I see only portents.

From PPP:

Quote
-Only 13% of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, to 68% who disapprove. Paul Ryan has a 35/43 approval rating, and Mitch McConnell's is 17/55. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 45/42.

Republicans own this mess, and they will need miracles to get out of it. The 45/42 Democratic lead on the generic ballot will not be enough to allow them to win the House; at that they would pick off a few seats here and there. But give the Democrats a 54/46 split of the national vote for Congress and the Democrats get a House majority.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 06, 2017, 08:32:38 AM
He always polled badly, even the day he won over 300 electoral votes.

Yes, and he ran against a candidate who was almost as disliked as him, and trusted even less (somehow). Trump isn't some magical politician whose unpopularity is irrelevant. It just so happens that when you pit two unliked candidates against each other, that attribute seems to cancel out in that race.


This. If the Democrats manage nominate a likeable candidate in 2020, Trump is toast. That is, if Trump is even on the ballot in 2020...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 06, 2017, 10:15:52 AM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 06, 2017, 10:57:01 AM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 06, 2017, 11:08:11 AM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 06, 2017, 11:29:00 AM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

Quote
-Only 13% of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, to 68% who disapprove. Paul Ryan has a 35/43 approval rating, and Mitch McConnell's is 17/55. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 45/42.

Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on February 06, 2017, 12:38:50 PM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

Quote
-Only 13% of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, to 68% who disapprove. Paul Ryan has a 35/43 approval rating, and Mitch McConnell's is 17/55. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 45/42.

Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 

As Virginia pointed out, though, it's not just about getting out younger and minority voters (although it certainly doesn't hurt) but driving up the score among already likely to vote people such as older voters and whites. Something that might be achieved if, say, loads of people suddenly lose their healthcare.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 06, 2017, 12:55:55 PM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

Quote
-Only 13% of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, to 68% who disapprove. Paul Ryan has a 35/43 approval rating, and Mitch McConnell's is 17/55. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 45/42.

Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 

As Virginia pointed out, though, it's not just about getting out younger and minority voters (although it certainly doesn't hurt) but driving up the score among already likely to vote people such as older voters and whites. Something that might be achieved if, say, loads of people suddenly lose their healthcare.

Well, at the moment, I'm not actually convinced that anything substantial will change on health insurance reform.  Some tort reform changes, or tweaks to how the exchanges work, but beyond that it's not clear anything will change.  Several Republicans in Congress (and perhaps even Trump himself) don't want repeal unless replace goes with it, and it's not obvious to me that any version of "replace" will be able to get enough votes to pass.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 06, 2017, 01:13:14 PM
Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on February 06, 2017, 01:16:01 PM
Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 06, 2017, 01:17:32 PM
Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: anthonyjg on February 06, 2017, 01:22:13 PM
Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

Even that wouldn't be too bad, +6 less than a month after the inauguration is pretty terrible.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on February 06, 2017, 01:31:36 PM
Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.

Do the other pollsters prune the data to make sure their numbers represent the country as a whole? If so then I don't have much reason to doubt them. IDK why Ras uses a LV Screen for approvals...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 06, 2017, 02:31:59 PM
Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.

True approval is not a thing. His approval being lower with all adults makes sense. Non-voters tend to me more liberal than voters, and presumably, this would affect any GOPer.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 06, 2017, 02:38:36 PM
True approval is not a thing. His approval being lower with all adults makes sense. Non-voters tend to me more liberal than voters, and presumably, this would affect any GOPer.

I get your point, but typically pre-election polls are of RV, then switch to LV a few months before. PPP did an RV poll and got 47/49.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2017, 03:43:57 AM
FL - Florida Atlantic University:

34% Approve
66% Disapprove

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2017/florida-favors-sanctuary-cities-sen-nelson-vulnerable-in-2018/index.aspx

Pretty odd poll, because it has no undecideds and conducted among all adults and not among RV.

They had Hillary winning FL by 3 and 6 in their last polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2017, 03:52:16 AM
Yeah, pbrower shouldn't include it in his map because it looks really crappy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2017, 05:08:53 AM
Yeah, pbrower shouldn't include it in his map because it looks really crappy.

Florida should not be significantly more hostile to President Trump than the rest of the country. When someone starts showing polls of Florida (because there will be a Senate race and a Gubernatorial race in 2018) we should see polls of Florida more credible than this one.

No undecided? People in transition from approval to disapproval or vice-versa go through 'undecided'.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 07, 2017, 09:37:50 AM
Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2017, 10:29:43 AM
NC (High Point University):

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 07, 2017, 10:36:44 AM
Damn, Trump looking like crap in the Atlantic South.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 07, 2017, 11:00:43 AM
Even I feel you adjust these numbers five points in favor of Trump, they're still crap


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 07, 2017, 11:02:50 AM
NC (High Point University):

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

This looks less dubious than that FL poll, if only because they include undecideds


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2017, 11:22:09 AM
NC (High Point University):

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

Consistent with the poll of Florida by Florida Atlantic University... and 8% worse than for Trump nationwide as shown in Gallup polls?


Unless Democrats are regaining the Carter 1976 coalition, this is absurd. Strange things can happen with a highly-unpopular President.

What could be happening?

1. Outliers may be telling us something. As elections of 2010, 2014, and 2016 show, outlier points of data may be right. But even if they are exaggerations, Florida and North Carolina are at least as hostile to Donald Trump as the nationwide polls by Gallup.

2. President Trump may prove to be a poor cultural match for parts of the South, even if in two states that are marginally Southern. The core South may have seen President Obama as a d@mn-Yankee pol more than as a black man. Southerners have their own idea of what black people are, and those are not people with a recent African ancestor. Could Donald Trump be even more of a d@mn-Yankee than Obama?

I'd like to see Obama approval as a check. It's hard to quantify "niceness", but if Obama barely lost both states and fares better than Trump, then these results are somewhat consistent.

3. President Trump has been having a difficult Presidency because he has bungled so much early. Later polls may reflect this. If the polls showed Michigan and Wisconsin with such approval ratings, then would you accept them? We have accepted polls in this range in California and New Jersey.

4. These two states got polled often in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Both have been  essential to a Republican win of the presidency, but neither has been necessary.  I expect much the same for 2018. I am tempted to show the two states with the   Gallup national average than with the statewide polls by colleges that few people know  about outside of the states.  I can treat them as 42/52, which is the Gallup average.

NC (High Point University):

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

This looks less dubious than that FL poll, if only because they include undecideds

I can adjust them to the Gallup nationwide poll.
 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2017, 11:32:44 AM
Florida, North Carolina

Possible outlier polls emerged, suggesting that Donald Trump has a very troubled Presidency, at least as shown in two states that he barely won in November. A cautious approach is to figure that the two states disapprove of the President at roughly the same rate as the nationwide polls of Gallup show. The letter G will be added to the number of electoral votes for each state because even if I believe that approval in the mid-thirties in these two states is an exaggeration, approval in the low 40s is not.

These two states got polled often in recent years, so I expect replacements soon enough. 


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.








Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on February 07, 2017, 12:05:07 PM
Oh boy oh boy oh boy let's get Jimmy Carter in a time machine


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 07, 2017, 12:13:11 PM
Just a quick question:

If Trump's approval is 45-55 (-10%) and the margin of error is 3%, does that mean that both numbers have a MoE of 3% (between 42-58 (-16%) and 48-52 (-4%)), or does it mean that the difference has a MoE of 3% (between 43.5-56.5 (-13%) and 46.5-53.5 (-7%)). I assume it's the first but I'm not sure.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on February 07, 2017, 12:14:41 PM
Just a quick question:

If Trump's approval is 45-55 (-10%) and the margin of error is 3%, does that mean that both numbers have a MoE of 3% (between 42-58 (-16%) and 48-52 (-4%)), or does it mean that the difference has a MoE of 3% (between 43.5-56.5 (-13%) and 46.5-53.5 (-7%)). I assume it's the first but I'm not sure.

Both numbers have a MoE of 3, so you are correct that the range is between -16 and -4


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 07, 2017, 12:19:35 PM
2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

Okay... I wonder what Obama's Gallup approval rating was in say, November 2010, before his party lost 63 seats in the House?

11/1/2010

Approve 44%
Disapprove 48%

But... Obama may be an outlier. Let's look at GW Bush, who lost 31 seats in 2006:

11/4/2006

Approve 38
Disapprove 54

Hmmm.... that "polarization" argument is not holding up so well.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2017, 01:00:31 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 07, 2017, 01:02:05 PM
Gallup

Approval: 42% (+/-0)
Disapproval: 54% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 07, 2017, 01:10:07 PM
Hmmm.... that "polarization" argument is not holding up so well.

The polarization argument in this context is really just a cop-out, imo. Let's take the often-cited (by TNVol too I think?) number of "45%" that, say, Republicans can always count on. If Republicans get 45% in the House PV, odds are Democrats are probably bringing in 51% - 53%. By House standards that is basically a landslide loss, and in the range of what Democrats need to take over the chamber. If you look back in history, rarely have parties gotten less than 44% in the House PV, and it wasn't necessary to go lower to lose big (but it did happen sometimes, like 1974, and it caused huge losses).

I think the polarization argument applies more to presidential races, where the intense focus on 2 well-defined candidates has a more powerful polarizing effect. The 20th century was filled to the brim with landslide elections, and polarization today largely prevents landslides like '36, '64, '72, '84, etc, and that makes it appear more substantial than it really is.

But, for the record, I don't really believe in the "45% always" rule. I just wanted to point out that in elections for the House, it doesn't really change anything anyway.

-

Edit: As for the geographical sorting issue, I put this down:

www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-how-a-democratic-wave-could-happen/

()

I'd a venture a guess that if Obama could have won roughly that many GOP-held districts with a 5-7 pt. PV win, a Democratic House PV win in the same range (obviously with some changes due to the suburban/rural sorting seen under Clinton/Trump) could probably achieve similar, even if maybe somewhat weaker effects. We'd just need to recruit some pretty good candidates and hope the GOP brand is sufficiently garbage to get voters to toss out incumbents.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 07, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Hmmm.... that "polarization" argument is not holding up so well.

The polarization argument in this context is really just a cop-out, imo. Let's take the often-cited (by TNVol too I think?) number of "45%" that, say, Republicans can always count on. If Republicans get 45% in the House PV, odds are Democrats are probably bringing in 51% - 53%. By House standards that is basically a landslide loss, and in the range of what Democrats need to take over the chamber. If you look back in history, rarely have parties gotten less than 44% in the House PV, and it wasn't necessary to go lower to lose big (but it did happen sometimes, like 1974, and it caused huge losses).

I think the polarization argument applies more to presidential races, where the intense focus on 2 well-defined candidates has a more powerful polarizing effect. The 20th century was filled to the brim with landslide elections, and polarization today largely prevents landslides like '36, '64, '72, '84, etc, and that makes it appear more substantial than it really is.

But, for the record, I don't really believe in the "45% always" rule. I just wanted to point out that in elections for the House, it doesn't really change anything anyway.

-

Edit: As for the geographical sorting issue, I put this down:

www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-how-a-democratic-wave-could-happen/

()

I'd a venture a guess that if Obama could have won roughly that many GOP-held districts with a 5-7 pt. PV win, a Democratic House PV win in the same range (obviously with some changes due to the suburban/rural sorting seen under Clinton/Trump) could probably achieve similar, even if maybe somewhat weaker effects. We'd just need to recruit some pretty good candidates and hope the GOP brand is sufficiently garbage to get voters to toss out incumbents.

This is my point exactly. Let's look at 2006. Nancy Boyda won KS-02. Now, how the hell does that make sense? She lost in 2008 as "polarization" brought that district back into the fold, but between 2006 and 2008, a fair number of "PVI R+5" districts fell to the Dems. In fact, that's why the 2010 midterms were so stacked against the Dems... they had been picking off seats they really had no business winning. So, in 2018, I cannot see a reason to think that the average R+5 seat is "safe" because of polarization.

And there are plenty of R+2, R+3 seats that will fall in a wave. In fact, Polarization probably increases the chance of the Dems winning the House! Think about it... the last three midterms have been super great for the party not in the White House - out of power partisans are infuriated and over-represent themselves. Why would 2018 suddenly be different?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2017, 02:02:38 PM
Well, one thing I'd note is that the tipping point seat in the House in 2016 was UT-4, Mia Love's district, and she won by a 12.5% margin.  That is, if you had a uniform nationwide swing towards the Dems from the GOP's actual ~1% national victory margin, it would need to be as big as 12.5 points in order to win the House.

Of course, the swing wouldn't be uniform, but the point is, on the surface that makes it look like a rather large structural advantage for the GOP.  Is that different from what the Dems faced in the last decade?  I don't know.  I suppose I could look up the tipping point seat in 2004, to see if it looked just as daunting for the Dems to take the House in 2006, but I'm too lazy to do so.  :P

Would also note, of course, that Trump was already unpopular in November 2016, at the time that the voters were reelecting a Republican Congress.  Does that matter?  If the incoming president is unpopular to begin with, and simply remains unpopular two years in, does that impact the opposition's ability to pick up seats in the House?  I don't know.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 07, 2017, 02:14:35 PM
Quinnipiac:

Approve 42%
Disapprove 51%

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2427)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Absolution9 on February 07, 2017, 02:15:28 PM
I find it doubtful that the Dems win back the house in 2018 short of truly terrible approval for Trump/Reps.  My logic is simplistic but I think sound:  married white home-owners are the core midterm voting population (and best distributed geographically) and this group has trended heavily away from the Dems in the past 8 years.  I think its a trend that wont be easily reversed in the short term.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 07, 2017, 02:17:45 PM
I find it doubtful that the Dems win back the house in 2018 short of truly terrible approval for Trump/Reps.  My logic is simplistic but I think sound:  married white home-owners are the core midterm voting population (and best distributed geographically) and this group has trended heavily away from the Dems in the past 8 years.  I think its a trend that wont be easily reversed in the short term.

Some groups don't need to trend towards Dems, they just need to not vote. Trump's failure to live up to  some of the wilder expectations he has set could turn many people off from showing up.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 07, 2017, 02:22:48 PM
I find it doubtful that the Dems win back the house in 2018 short of truly terrible approval for Trump/Reps.  My logic is simplistic but I think sound:  married white home-owners are the core midterm voting population (and best distributed geographically) and this group has trended heavily away from the Dems in the past 8 years.  I think its a trend that wont be easily reversed in the short term.
No rural whites are what's trending right an they don't do midterms a lot


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2017, 02:23:21 PM
Quinnipiac:

Approve 42%
Disapprove 51%

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2427)

Gender gap remains huge:

men: 50% approve, 43% disapprove
women: 35% approve, 58% disapprove

fav/unfav %:
Pence 43/39% for +4%
Trump 43/52% for -9%
Bannon 14/41% for -27%

On the executive order…

“Do you support or oppose suspending immigration from "terror prone" regions, even if it means turning away refugees from those regions?”
support 44%
oppose 50%

“Do you support or oppose suspending all travel by citizens of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen to the U.S. for 90 days?”
support 46%
oppose 51%

“Do you support or oppose suspending the immigration of all refugees to the U.S., regardless of where they are coming from, for 120 days?”
support 37%
oppose 60%

“Do you support or oppose suspending all immigration of Syrian refugees to the U.S. indefinitely?”
support 26%
oppose 70%

“Do you think President Trump's executive order on immigration makes the nation more safe, less safe, or doesn't it affect the safety of the nation?”
more safe 38%
less safe 39%

“Do you think exceptions to President Trump's immigration order should be made for Iraqi citizens that helped the U.S. military, or not?”
yes 76%
no 17%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 07, 2017, 02:31:24 PM
Pence will go down after today.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Absolution9 on February 07, 2017, 02:34:16 PM
I find it doubtful that the Dems win back the house in 2018 short of truly terrible approval for Trump/Reps.  My logic is simplistic but I think sound:  married white home-owners are the core midterm voting population (and best distributed geographically) and this group has trended heavily away from the Dems in the past 8 years.  I think its a trend that wont be easily reversed in the short term.
No rural whites are what's trending right an they don't do midterms a lot

Rural is a bit of a misnomer, its really whites outside of major metro areas (1.5M +).  Every metro area in PA and upstate NY trended toward Trump.  Metro regions like Buffalo, Scranton, Syracuse, Allentown aren't exactly rural (trend was consistent across the country).  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2017, 03:23:33 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 07, 2017, 03:42:24 PM
Well, one thing I'd note is that the tipping point seat in the House in 2016 was UT-4, Mia Love's district, and she won by a 12.5% margin.  That is, if you had a uniform nationwide swing towards the Dems from the GOP's actual ~1% national victory margin, it would need to be as big as 12.5 points in order to win the House.

Of course, the swing wouldn't be uniform, but the point is, on the surface that makes it look like a rather large structural advantage for the GOP.  Is that different from what the Dems faced in the last decade?  I don't know.  I suppose I could look up the tipping point seat in 2004, to see if it looked just as daunting for the Dems to take the House in 2006, but I'm too lazy to do so.  :P

Would also note, of course, that Trump was already unpopular in November 2016, at the time that the voters were reelecting a Republican Congress.  Does that matter?  If the incoming president is unpopular to begin with, and simply remains unpopular two years in, does that impact the opposition's ability to pick up seats in the House?  I don't know.


Two thoughts.

1) I wonder if uncontested seats drive this in favor of the GOP. The tipping point may depend on a few competitive seats having no credible Dem run. For example, no GOPer ran against Ron Kind in WI-03. That was a seat Trump won. Same thing with the Dallas area seat Hillary won.

2) I wonder if a number of people, assuming Hillary would win, voted GOP to "keep things in check" - now, they may flip.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 07, 2017, 03:48:23 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2017, 04:05:39 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.

Wait, I'm sorry, you'll have to explain that logic to me.  Why would a 6% Dem. margin be enough to win the House?  I don't follow.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 07, 2017, 04:32:22 PM
Gallup 2/6/17:
Disapproval 54%
Approval 42%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 07, 2017, 05:04:31 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.

Wait, I'm sorry, you'll have to explain that logic to me.  Why would a 6% Dem. margin be enough to win the House?  I don't follow.


I was a bit inarticulate, but you actually prove my point above. You said Mia Love won with a 12.5% margin, when the Dems are down 1% nationally... well, if you increase the Dems by 6%, and the GOP drops by 6%, then that's 12%. I should have said swing, not margin.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 07, 2017, 05:34:39 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.

Wait, I'm sorry, you'll have to explain that logic to me.  Why would a 6% Dem. margin be enough to win the House?  I don't follow.


I was a bit inarticulate, but you actually prove my point above. You said Mia Love won with a 12.5% margin, when the Dems are down 1% nationally... well, if you increase the Dems by 6%, and the GOP drops by 6%, then that's 12%. I should have said swing, not margin.

Well yeah, if they actually manage to win nationally by ~11 or 12 points, they win the House, sure.  Of course, they haven't actually won by 11+ points since 1982.  It's a heck of a swing.  I think the more interesting question is whether they can win some of those seats they lost this time by 12, 13, 14 points even if the national margin only shifts by ~7 or 8 points.  Is that likely?  Or has their structural disadvantage really grown so much now that they need to win the popular vote by more than they've managed to do so since 1982 in order to get a majority of seats?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on February 07, 2017, 05:59:22 PM
I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.


Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.

Wait, I'm sorry, you'll have to explain that logic to me.  Why would a 6% Dem. margin be enough to win the House?  I don't follow.


I was a bit inarticulate, but you actually prove my point above. You said Mia Love won with a 12.5% margin, when the Dems are down 1% nationally... well, if you increase the Dems by 6%, and the GOP drops by 6%, then that's 12%. I should have said swing, not margin.

Well yeah, if they actually manage to win nationally by ~11 or 12 points, they win the House, sure.  Of course, they haven't actually won by 11+ points since 1982.  It's a heck of a swing.  I think the more interesting question is whether they can win some of those seats they lost this time by 12, 13, 14 points even if the national margin only shifts by ~7 or 8 points.  Is that likely?  Or has their structural disadvantage really grown so much now that they need to win the popular vote by more than they've managed to do so since 1982 in order to get a majority of seats?


People were saying this in 2005 and they still pulled through. For all we know, the gerrymander is 8 years old and now might not be as powerful as populations have changed.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 07, 2017, 07:53:51 PM
Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.
Even at his nadir, Obama never went below 38%, unlike extremely unpopular presidents like GWB and Carter.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on February 08, 2017, 06:04:33 AM
Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

Well if there's a D wave in 2020, surely 2022 would be an R year.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 08, 2017, 09:05:43 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b58-d712-adda-bf78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b5a-d7b6-a15e-5b5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 08, 2017, 09:32:30 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b58-d712-adda-bf78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b5a-d7b6-a15e-5b5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1


This sounds about right.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 08, 2017, 09:36:02 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b58-d712-adda-bf78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b5a-d7b6-a15e-5b5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1


This is a 7% net decrease from their last poll (Jan 26 – Jan 28).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 08, 2017, 09:46:21 AM
Still amazing to me that we have a Republican president who is doing as bad or worse among those making over $100,000 as he is with those making under $50,000.  It's not just this one poll, as we've seen it in quite a few polls recently.  I mean, I understand why it's happening, but imagine showing those numbers to a political observer from 30 years ago.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 08, 2017, 10:09:33 AM
Quote
The Economist/YouGov Poll
Sample 1500 US Adults
Conducted February 5 - 7, 2017
Margin of Error ±3.2%

41% Approve   48%   Disapprove

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4zurt7hzwj/econToplines.pdf

44/49 with RV. That's 7 point fall in net approval from their poll a week ago. Also weird that his disapproval number is higher with them than among all adults.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2017, 10:33:11 AM
SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump
47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

SUSA also released the following statement:

Quote
Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Statement from SurveyUSA

A free press is essential to the functioning of a free society.

Labeling the work of journalists as “fake news” is dangerous.

To then go beyond that, and label the work of research scientists as “fake polls” calls all of Democracy into question. It silences the very individuals who elected you, takes power away from “We, The People,” and attempts to consolidate that power in an omnipotent being.

For 27 years, SurveyUSA® has been Proud to be America’s Pollster®.

We will continue to give voice to every American, regardless of their leaning.

We encourage everyone to participate in opinion surveys when you are invited to do so.

Speak freely.

Each of your voices is vital to the functioning of this Republic.

Jay H Leve
President and CEO

http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Statement-from-SurveyUSA-CEO-Jay-H-Leve-020717.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 08, 2017, 10:42:35 AM
The Democrats have a solution for winning the Presidency in 2020 -- nominate the political figure most similar to former President Obama in  ideology and temperament. Basically another Eisenhower.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2017, 10:44:21 AM
MI - EPIC MRA:

Favorable ratings

39-48 Trump
44-46 Snyder
59-37 Obama

Overall, based on what you have heard or read, how would you rate the job that has been done so far by Donald Trump during the transition and now as President – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

40% Excellent/Good
54% Fair/Poor

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

37% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://woodtv.com/2017/02/08/poll-majority-unhappy-with-president-trumps-start


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 08, 2017, 10:52:27 AM
MI - EPIC MRA:

Favorable ratings

39-48 Trump
44-46 Snyder
59-37 Obama

Overall, based on what you have heard or read, how would you rate the job that has been done so far by Donald Trump during the transition and now as President – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

40% Excellent/Good
54% Fair/Poor

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

37% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://woodtv.com/2017/02/08/poll-majority-unhappy-with-president-trumps-start

Not a great pollster, but it's telling that the results are much like those in Florida and North Carolina for the President. Democrats have a good chance of doing very well in Michigan in 2018, which means taking the Governorship, protecting what would be a vulnerable Senate seat if the Trump trend shown in 2016 were to hold, and even picking off a couple of House seats.  State legislature? Too little data.

Republicans have been governing Michigan as if it were Oklahoma... that may end in early 2019.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 08, 2017, 10:53:39 AM
SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump
47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

Trump favorability margin by region…
Midwest: -7
Northeast: -10
South: +4
West: -9


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 08, 2017, 11:12:06 AM
Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

I predicted a "Democratic Landslide in 2014"!?!? [citation needed]


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 08, 2017, 12:05:26 PM
Michigan. It barely went for President Trump, and this poll suggests that the state will turn sharply against Republicans in 2018 and 2020. President Trump gets poor approval and favorability ratings, and so does the incumbent Republican Governor. Favorability and approval are not significantly different this time.

Because of the "excellent-good-fair-poor" alternative, I would ordinarily reject this... but at this stage it is better than nothing, and the pollster clearly states that 'fair' is an unflattering rating.
Democrats will protect their incumbent Senator effectively and will elect the next Governor, if the trend holds.

President Trump will get no help from the new Michigan governor in 2020. I have no idea of whether Governor Snyder suppressed the vote in Michigan, but his Democratic successor certainly won't.

Global warming can't undo this political Winter of Discontent.

... Seeming outlier polls in Florida and North Carolina, two states that also barely went for Donald Trump, aren't so preposterous after all.


Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 08, 2017, 12:54:17 PM
First Emerson Poll - Pretty favorable to Trump:

BOSTON, MA – The first poll of Emerson College’s Spring 2017 semester shows the nation is split on Donald Trump’s performance as President so far with 48% of registered voters approving of the job that Trump is doing, versus 47% that disapprove. Republicans approve of Trump 89%/5%, while Democrats disapprove of the President by a margin of 81% to 17%. Trump’s failure to pass the 50% threshold for approval can be accredited to his standing among independents, who disapprove of him 52%/42%.
 
A key finding of the poll shows that voters find the Trump administration to be more truthful than the news media. The Trump administration is considered truthful by 49% of voters, to 48% of voters who consider it untruthful. Meanwhile, the news media is considered untruthful by a 53%-majority of registered voters, to only 39% who find them truthful (a 14-point gap). Numerous members of the Trump administration – including Trump himself – have been criticized frequently for making false statements. The partisan split on this topic is clear – 89% of Republicans find the Trump administration truthful, versus 77% of Democrats who find the administration untruthful. Conversely, 69% of Democrats find the news media truthful, while a whopping 91% of Republicans consider them untruthful. Independents consider both untruthful – the Trump administration by a margin of 42%/52% and the news media by a margin of 45%/47%.
 
Trump’s nomination of GOP mega-donor Betsy DeVos for Secretary of Education is opposed by a majority, 51%, of registered voters. Only 34% of registered voters support DeVos’ nomination to the cabinet post, while roughly 15% remain undecided on the controversial nominee. DeVos’ nomination is opposed by voters who attended both public and private school, but voters who attended public school – of which DeVos’ is a strong opponent – oppose her nomination by a significant 19-point margin, 32%/51%. Voters who attended private school also oppose DeVos’ nomination, but by a smaller 11-point margin, 42%/51%.
 
Trump’s other high-profile nominees are more popular among voters. Attorney General nominee Jeff Sessions is supported by 45% of registered voters versus 40% who oppose him. Newly confirmed Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has the support of 48% of voters, to only 33% who oppose him, a 15-point margin of support. Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, is supported by voters 52%/32%.
 
Similarly, voters prefer Gorsuch to former Obama nominee Merrick Garland by a 10-point margin, 39%/29%, though 14% of voters indicated that they would prefer somebody else altogether. 18% of Democrats side with Gorsuch, versus 8% of Republicans who side with Garland. Independents are evenly split between the two – each judge receives 28% support from independent voters, while 26% of independents want somebody else.
 
Kellyanne Conway, a frequent face of the administration on television who recently made headlines by coining the phrase “alternative facts,” holds a favorability ratio of 39%/45%, a net favorability of -6%. Significantly less popular is Steve Bannon, a controversial figure in the administration who is viewed favorably by only 34% of voters, while 47% view him unfavorably – a net favorability of -13%.
 
Trump does not yet appear to be a drag on Republican congressional candidates. In a hypothetical match-up for the next congressional election, a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican by a slim, 2-point margin, 48%/46%. The generic Democrat currently has the edge with independents by an 18-point margin, 54%/36%. However, Republicans have been able to keep the race close due to a lack of party unity on the Democratic side – 12% of Democrats currently say they will vote for a generic Republican, versus only 4% of Republicans who say they will vote for a generic Democrat.
 
CALLER ID
The national Emerson College poll was conducted February 5-6 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only registered voters, n=617, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The national data was weighted by 2016 election results, gender, party affiliation, race, age and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown and school carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only.


http://www.theecps.com/



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 08, 2017, 12:55:39 PM
Lol if Emerson only shows him up 1


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 08, 2017, 12:56:04 PM
Why are we still using RV's right now?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 08, 2017, 01:01:39 PM

No idea. Makes it harder to compare polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 08, 2017, 01:31:08 PM
Gallup: 43/53


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 08, 2017, 02:00:11 PM


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 08, 2017, 02:50:44 PM
Omgg Clinton still more unpopular than the president what the f**k...


Title: Re: Gallup national poll: Trump 42% favorable 55% unfavorable
Post by: BigRedFred on February 08, 2017, 03:21:48 PM

Exaclty. After his death the Nords, I mean Trump supporters will start to worship him and call him Talos before starting another civil war. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 08, 2017, 03:26:41 PM

Isn't that how it always goes? LV screens need to be used before an election, which isn't for a long time, so the best way to go right now is registered voters. Or, I'd think anyway.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 08, 2017, 03:51:13 PM

Isn't that how it always goes? LV screens need to be used before an election, which isn't for a long time, so the best way to go right now is registered voters. Or, I'd think anyway.

Usually it's adults, at least this far out and on something as trivial as approval

I thought only head to head races got polled in RV this far out.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 08, 2017, 03:57:21 PM

Isn't that how it always goes? LV screens need to be used before an election, which isn't for a long time, so the best way to go right now is registered voters. Or, I'd think anyway.

Usually it's adults, at least this far out and on something as trivial as approval

I thought only head to head races got polled in RV this far out.

Different pollsters do different things.  Morning Consult, PPP, and Quinnipiac all do RVs, for example.  Some others, like Gallup and YouGov, do adults.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JoshPA on February 08, 2017, 04:03:08 PM
they are oversampling democrats. Like they did the polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 08, 2017, 04:37:58 PM
they are oversampling democrats. Like they did the polls.

Fake News!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: / on February 08, 2017, 04:41:23 PM
they are oversampling democrats. Like they did the polls.

The national polls were actually only about three points off in the end, on average.

This is bad news for Trump even if his approvals are three points better than the polls say.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 08, 2017, 05:04:04 PM
The approvals are basically the conned staying with the con artist until something jars them. I doubt people who voted for him want to own up just yet. It'll take more than a few tweets and it will take some stupid unnecessary economic issues for people to grasp Trump was a bad idea.  So in context these polls make sense. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 08, 2017, 05:33:24 PM
Have we ever had a President that had mostly disapproval ratings this early in his Presidency?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on February 08, 2017, 06:09:43 PM
Have we ever had a President that had mostly disapproval ratings this early in his Presidency?

No, never, nobody else comes even close. I think George Bush Jr. had roughly 25% disapproval on inauguration day and that's the next closest. And nobody since Gallup started polling with Truman started with their approval under 50%. George Bush Sr. started at 51% but didn't go under 50% until his last year, and Bill Clinton went under 50% job approval a little over 100 days in. No president has begun their term in office with approval under 50% and disapproval above 45% (or even above 25%) before Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 08, 2017, 06:15:55 PM
Have we ever had a President that had mostly disapproval ratings this early in his Presidency?

()

These are unsual and unprecendented circumstances though. Normally, when you manage to win a presidential election it's a foregone conclusion that you have to be a popular guy. At least in the beginning.

But this time, a generally disliked candidate defeated an equally disliked candidate in the electoral vote, while losing the popular vote. Trump never had the support of a plurality - let alone a majority - of voters. The same applied to George W. Bush of course. But then again, the voters didn't think that Bush was an narcissistic asshole.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 08, 2017, 06:22:19 PM
No, never, nobody else comes even close. I think George Bush Jr. had roughly 25% disapproval on inauguration day and that's the next closest. And nobody since Gallup started polling with Truman started with their approval under 50%. George Bush Sr. started at 51% but didn't go under 50% until his last year, and Bill Clinton went under 50% job approval a little over 100 days in. No president has begun their term in office with approval under 50% and disapproval above 45% (or even above 25%) before Trump.

Plus, as I recall, his actual disapproval rating was in the single digits. He had a lot of room to grow. Trump has started with over half the country not liking him / not approving of him, and in some polls something like 40%+ strongly disapproving.

The funny thing is, Trump hasn't even gotten to the part of his presidency where things start going wrong and supporters start becoming disillusioned. Eventually the economy is going to have some hiccups, or there will be some new high-profile foreign policy blunder, or he'll push/sign unpopular policies into law (of which we know the GOP has plenty), or he'll get embroiled in a scandal - something he especially seems prone to, or any number of things, and like many presidents before him, he'll find even he has new lows.

I think his best bet is to wish every night for a 90s-level economic boom (somehow) with high wage growth, because otherwise it's hard for me personally to see how he gets above water for any prolonged period of time.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2017, 12:05:40 AM
The approvals are basically the conned staying with the con artist until something jars them. I doubt people who voted for him want to own up just yet. It'll take more than a few tweets and it will take some stupid unnecessary economic issues for people to grasp Trump was a bad idea.  So in context these polls make sense. 

Having been at a Democratic meeting clearly open to the general public tonight... this community may be much more pro-Trump  than the national average, being heavily rural and blue-collar... it is safe to say that there is something to offend practically everyone about Donald Trump as President. Sport hunters who might have fallen for the most resolute expression of opposition to 'taking away your guns' may have a problem with someone who endorses the ravaging of the environment. What good is a deer rifle if there are no deer to hunt because the deer get sick and die if they drink from a polluted stream or if the venison from the deer is contaminated with chromium-6, dioxin, or other bad chemicals? Midwestern grain farmers really need winter blizzards to keep moisture in place for crops germinating in the spring and replenish the ground water so that they can have good (and profitable) crop yields.

We still have the Obama economy and Obama military/foreign policy working. That can insulate him for a while, but he has blown it badly on refugees and undocumented aliens. A family of seven might have two illegal-alien parents, two kids also illegal aliens because their parents slipped them illegally over the border as very young children, and three US-born US citizens. Refugees from hot zones of genocide and brutal repression? Better here in America than being murdered or being brainwashed with anti-American propaganda over there. In view of the contempt that President Trump has for his above-average predecessor, I can see most of the benefits of having Barack Obama as President coming to abrupt ends, and with hideous consequences to America, Americans, and as a result  the approval of Donald Trump. To be sure, it is possible to be very different from a predecessor who was good and still be a good President, as with Kennedy following Eisenhower.  But if there is any Eisenhower-to-Kennedy comparison to Obama-to-Trump it stops with similarities of temperament, character, and achievements between Eisenhower and Obama. Donald Trump is so far from being another JFK so far that the only similarity that he can have is a foreshortened term of office.

(Moderators, please go gentle on that. I did not say how his term might be foreshortened!)       



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 09, 2017, 01:46:51 PM
No change in the Gallup Poll today


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 09, 2017, 04:33:29 PM
Ipsos/Reuters on Trump’s job approval, conducted Feb. 3-7:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16399

approve 48%
disapprove 47%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 09, 2017, 07:28:19 PM
Ipsos/Reuters on Trump’s job approval, conducted Feb. 3-7:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16399

approve 48%
disapprove 47%


13% of Democrats strongly approve of Trump?  Really?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 09, 2017, 10:09:55 PM
PPP (https://twitter.com/julio_aliaga/status/829882520284045315) (2/7-2/8): 43/53

This is among RVs, I believe.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2017, 08:21:15 AM
SurveyUSA:

Is Donald Trump ...

33-50 Brilliant ?
64-27 A great businessman ?
52-35 An American success story ?
31-49 Honest ?
31-51 Honorable ?
56-32 Candid ?
43-37 A man of his word ?
76-15 Forceful ?
30-55 Thoughtful ?
18-67 Even-tempered ?
33-48 Evil ?
53-32 In over his head ?
47-38 Juvenile ?
52-32 Spiteful ?
56-31 A bully ?
43-37 Dishonest
42-40 Mad ?
43-40 Racist ?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8ad3d154-79be-44a5-a32d-e600113cae30


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2017, 09:03:59 AM
WV - Orion Strategies (Feb. 2-4):

58% approve
37% disapprove

Gov. Jim Justice (D):

37% approve
22% disapprove

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2017/02/survey-west-virginia-residents-see-positive-future

CA - PPIC (Jan. 22-31):

30-58 (all adults)
21-65 (non-registered adults)
33-56 (registered voters)
34-55 (likely voters)

Gov. Jerry Brown (D):

62-24 (all adults)
69-11 (non-registered adults)
60-30 (registered voters)
62-31 (likely voters)

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_AllAdults0117.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 10, 2017, 09:06:55 AM
LOL, West Virginia.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2017, 09:17:41 AM

Not surprising.

Every country has their own Carinthia or Saxony ...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on February 10, 2017, 09:24:48 AM

Not surprising.

Every country has their own Carinthia or Saxony ...

It's like that province in Moldova that won't abandon Soviet-style communism.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2017, 09:34:04 AM
WV - Orion Strategies (Feb. 2-4):

58% approve
37% disapprove

Gov. Jim Justice (D):

37% approve
22% disapprove

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2017/02/survey-west-virginia-residents-see-positive-future

CA - PPIC (Jan. 22-31):

30-58 (all adults)
21-65 (non-registered adults)
33-56 (registered voters)
34-55 (likely voters)

Gov. Jerry Brown (D):

62-24 (all adults)
69-11 (non-registered adults)
60-30 (registered voters)
62-31 (likely voters)

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_AllAdults0117.pdf

So at looks as if the President finally has a state in which he is popular.

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2017, 10:19:05 AM
When the Trump Administration goes down in flames in November 2020... we Americans will be partying like it is 1989 again... in Berlin.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 10, 2017, 10:36:58 AM
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on February 10, 2017, 11:07:45 AM
I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on February 10, 2017, 11:09:14 AM
Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Because 'we, the people" are the boss, and we get to decide these things.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 10, 2017, 11:09:46 AM
Finally we continue to find that unhappiness with Trump- and with Congressional Republicans- could help Democrats to make big gains in 2018. Democrats lead 49/41 on the generic Congressional ballot. That's partially a product of Trump's unpopularity but also an outgrowth of Paul Ryan (35/47 approval), Mitch McConnell (23/52 approval), and Congress as a whole (16/68 approval) being unpopular in their own rights.

Now those are the numbers I want to see!

+8 lead on the generic congressional ballot is higher than all but 2 of the generic polls Democrats got in the 2016 race, with one of those 2 polls being +8 and the other +10.

Although as I recall one or two other generic polls posted in this thread over the past couple weeks showed somewhat lower numbers, so I won't give any of this much stock until I see months of consistent high single digit or double digit leads for Democrats in the generic poll. If that happens, I would definitely think a backlash is brewing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 10, 2017, 11:20:24 AM
Trump under 60% in WV is actually kinda surprising to me. Manchin could be safe if that number dips below 55%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 10, 2017, 11:46:56 AM
I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Because despite your braggadocio, the Republican Party isn't always going to be top dog? And you'll probably run away when the times get bad for the GOP? But yeah, the GOP isn't always going to be on top.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2017, 12:11:11 PM
I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Everything looks  bad for Democrats now. 2018 ought to be a wave election for Republicans, with Republicans getting Constitutional majorities in both Houses of Congress, which which they can establish themselves as the permanent "leading force of politics" (language adopted from Article 6 of the Constitution of the Soviet Union) and establish a Christian and Corporate State in which non-Christian religions, contraception, abortions, and labor unions can be outlawed.  Maybe people can get the freedom to sign peonage contracts.

So much for the dream of the American Right. Reality is that Donald Trump is spectacularly unpopular spectacularly early. Democrats are doing well with fund-raising. Rallies contesting policies of President Trump  are commonplace. A recent poll projects an 8% edge in the Congressional ballot for 2018. 46% of Americans want the President impeached (which probably isn't going to happen).

So much about  the Trump Presidency is an early disaster. President Trump can double down in expectation of miracles... which is likely to fail. If he fails, then he can backtrack, which makes him look weak and ineffective. With a Senate majority out of the question, people can turn to the House of Representatives and state government in 2018 and can replace some Republican governors with Democrats.

What worked against a generally-competent President (Obama) will work far better against a President (Trump) who is seen as domineering and incompetent.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2017, 12:18:24 PM
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 10, 2017, 12:30:23 PM
I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Those are weak, flimsy excuses. Not all the polls were off, and many national ones were very close or only marginally off the MoE near the end. In fact, during October, given the major events that were constantly breaking, it's probably fair to say that many of those polls were more or less correct but later developments shifted support back to Trump.

And if you think Trump's unpopularity doesn't matter just because he won the election, then I think you're ignoring a very crucial part of the election: his opponent was as disliked as he was, and trusted even less. Him winning doesn't mean his favorables/approvals mean nothing - it means that between 2 candidates with near-equally terrible favorables, the result is not always the candidate with the worst favorables.

But, whatever. If you want to use "but Trump won" as an excuse to ignore approval ratings/favorables and basically any negative polls for the next 2-4 years, then go ahead.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 10, 2017, 12:31:22 PM
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on February 10, 2017, 12:34:48 PM
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

Heck, I wouldn't even tell a poll I support impeaching Trump yet. Are 83% of Clinton backers more virulently anti-Trump than I am? Dang.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 10, 2017, 01:10:09 PM
Gallup 2/10/17

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Seems like a pretty stable range here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 10, 2017, 01:21:29 PM
Gallup 2/10/17

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Seems like a pretty stable range here.

Stable but ugly


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 10, 2017, 02:40:12 PM
Jesus...

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 10, 2017, 02:42:34 PM
lol, these are going to be a painful 4 years for our country.

#WeAreShinzo


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2017, 03:06:01 PM
Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.
()

Thank you.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 10, 2017, 04:31:04 PM
The impeachment #s re: Nixon may be inflated by modern polarization, FWIW


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 10, 2017, 05:26:50 PM

What's so shocking? Everybody knows he's a buffoon, a cheat, and a loser.

In fact, there's an editorial about the first weeks of the Trump presidency on German news site SPIEGEL ONLINE right now, titled ""BIG LOSER! SO SAD!" (in English). He's quickly becoming the world's laughing stock and comedy relief.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: afleitch on February 10, 2017, 05:31:06 PM
When a country's leader is considered a literal joke, then it's probably impossible for America to ever recover it's prestige.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on February 10, 2017, 07:13:57 PM
Finally we continue to find that unhappiness with Trump- and with Congressional Republicans- could help Democrats to make big gains in 2018. Democrats lead 49/41 on the generic Congressional ballot. That's partially a product of Trump's unpopularity but also an outgrowth of Paul Ryan (35/47 approval), Mitch McConnell (23/52 approval), and Congress as a whole (16/68 approval) being unpopular in their own rights.

Now those are the numbers I want to see!

+8 lead on the generic congressional ballot is higher than all but 2 of the generic polls Democrats got in the 2016 race, with one of those 2 polls being +8 and the other +10.

Although as I recall one or two other generic polls posted in this thread over the past couple weeks showed somewhat lower numbers, so I won't give any of this much stock until I see months of consistent high single digit or double digit leads for Democrats in the generic poll. If that happens, I would definitely think a backlash is brewing.

One of the most frustrating aspects this early on is that there's not a large enough data set yet to distinguish signal from noise. The numbers posted here certainly are promising though if true.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2017, 10:54:03 PM
When a country's leader is considered a literal joke, then it's probably impossible for America to ever recover it's prestige.

Just elect someone like JFK or Obama (who are extremely unlike, with Obama more like Eisenhower in contrast to JFK, which is about as different as two good Presidents can be)... and America can get respect again for having a much greater likelihood of doing the right thing.

Quote
Finally we continue to find that unhappiness with Trump- and with Congressional Republicans- could help Democrats to make big gains in 2018. Democrats lead 49/41 on the generic Congressional ballot. That's partially a product of Trump's unpopularity but also an outgrowth of Paul Ryan (35/47 approval), Mitch McConnell (23/52 approval), and Congress as a whole (16/68 approval) being unpopular in their own rights.

There's nothing like a bad President to tear down his Party in Congress. Republicans who can't see that possibility with Donald Trump have forgotten how they took down the Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress and eventually the Presidency with someone really good as President. A bad President exposes whatever weaknesses members of Congress from his Party have. This is happening much faster with Donald Trump than with Barack Obama. Republicans figured out what to do with Obama in far less time than Democrats are figuring out what to do with Donald Trump.

He isn't fair... and he doesn't even understand the Bill of Rights and the tradition of indifference to religion in the heritage of America. I'm sure that many of us already have been adapting the famous Niemöller quote...

First they came for the Muslims... AND I SPOKE OUT!

I have no idea of how long it will take for President Trump to back down. If he does he will look like a fool. If he doesn't back down he will be an even bigger fool.








Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2017, 06:48:35 AM
NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

Plus, a new IA/Selzer poll will be out later today.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2017, 06:57:52 AM
Only -5 in NH of all places? And coming from the pollster that showed Clinton leading by 11 two days before the election? Not that it matters or tells us much, but this isn't bad for Trump.

That's a poll of adults. Among RV, it's probably -3 or something.

Anyway, like you said, the recent state polls are not bad for Trump and in line with a -5 national approval deficit.

If this trend holds, IA/Selzer should be about tied or slightly positive for Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 11, 2017, 10:49:31 AM
NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

Plus, a new IA/Selzer poll will be out later today.

As in Michigan (which looks like a two different categories, but in which the positive assessment differs by 1%) approval and favorability are much the same. Partisan affiliation is very stable in New Hampshire, and it is usually closer than this if one sees positive and negative views predicting an election. Sure, it is 45 months away.

Because it is New Hampshire I would put it on the map now, but we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that went sharply for Donald Trump after being a reliable Obama state. Trump did exceedingly well in the Midwestern states in which farming is much big and ranching is rare.

New Hampshire has some similarities to Michigan, and Michigan has some similarities to Iowa.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 11, 2017, 12:17:26 PM
I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 11, 2017, 12:21:16 PM
I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Isn't that how it was almost everywhere?  Trump's fav/unfav in the national exit poll was 38%/60%.  He was underwater on favorability in places like IN, MO, and SC, yet still won those states handily.

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 11, 2017, 12:57:28 PM
That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.

If anything, he actually still remains more favorable today than he was prior to November 8th. I think when "crashing" is used, it is mainly referring to the fact that he had a very slight honeymoon (at least in a fair number of polls), then quite quickly came right back down.

Honestly, for right now, I believe his current range - anywhere from 40 - 44 / 48 - 54, is where he will probably remain for many months. I do not believe his core supporters will begin breaking ranks until Trump has trudged on for a while and continued to fail to make any progress on improving their lives, bringing jobs back or achieving most of the things he said he would. I do wholeheartedly believe a sizable number of people will become disillusioned at some point, though. It happens to most presidents.

In other words, to get him lower than what he has now might require a war of attrition.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 11, 2017, 01:04:55 PM
I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Isn't that how it was almost everywhere?  Trump's fav/unfav in the national exit poll was 38%/60%.  He was underwater on favorability in places like IN, MO, and SC, yet still won those states handily.

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.


His lack of popularity may contribute to ineffectiveness as President -- as if we can ignore extreme stands of partisanship that can polarize Americans more fully in opposition to him.

The map of favorability so far demonstrates that Donald Trump never got a solid mandate. When he does something unpopular, people who did not vote for him will find themselves in the position of saying "I didn't vote for him!" Sure, we saw this with Barack Obama, too, but far less of such at the outset  because he won clear majorities of the vote twice and because he was far less abrasive.

From now on the positions and behavior of the President are everything. He will have to change his ways, letting the normal processes of legislation work as we are accustomed to seeing them work, making sure that his executive orders violate neither the Constitution nor statutory law, and not tweeting whatever gets into his mind at the moment.

Americans do not like being ordered about on politics, and the President's dictatorial style that might fit other countries cannot work here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 11, 2017, 01:05:18 PM
Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 11, 2017, 02:10:29 PM
Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)
Damn son


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on February 11, 2017, 02:41:52 PM
Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Cant wait to see this drop below 40%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on February 11, 2017, 02:48:58 PM
Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Cant wait to see this drop below 40%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 11, 2017, 02:49:30 PM
His approvals will hover around 40%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on February 11, 2017, 03:01:02 PM
Trump under 60% in WV is actually kinda surprising to me. Manchin could be safe if that number dips below 55%.

WV polls always have a ridiculous pro-D bias. And Manchin will be vulnerable anyway, especially when his opponent links him to Chuck Schumer.

Yeah, ask the average not-already-solid-GOP voter in WV what the most important issues to them are, and "opposing Check Schmer" is always in the top 3. ::)

What's the matter with you, son?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 12, 2017, 12:38:00 AM
Iowa Selzer Poll:

()

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/11/iowa-poll-majority-iowans-disagree-trumps-immigration-order/97764116/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2017, 02:10:50 AM
Trump's job approval in IA is probably similar to the ban numbers, because:

Quote
Similarly, Iowans’ feelings on the executive order also correlate strongly with their feelings for Trump: 86 percent of Iowans who approve of Trump’s job performance also approve of the ban, while 89 percent of those who disapprove of Trump also disapprove of the ban.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 12, 2017, 02:47:07 AM
SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump

47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

SUSA also released the following statement:

Quote
Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Statement from SurveyUSA

A free press is essential to the functioning of a free society.

Labeling the work of journalists as “fake news” is dangerous.

To then go beyond that, and label the work of research scientists as “fake polls” calls all of Democracy into question. It silences the very individuals who elected you, takes power away from “We, The People,” and attempts to consolidate that power in an omnipotent being.

For 27 years, SurveyUSA® has been Proud to be America’s Pollster®.

We will continue to give voice to every American, regardless of their leaning.

We encourage everyone to participate in opinion surveys when you are invited to do so.

Speak freely.

Each of your voices is vital to the functioning of this Republic.

Jay H Leve
President and CEO

http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Statement-from-SurveyUSA-CEO-Jay-H-Leve-020717.pdf
That's how polarizing this past Presidential Election was when both candidates favorability numbers were underwater during the election!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 12, 2017, 03:10:56 AM
I am indifferent to Trump's policies currently but I don't have a favorable view of him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 12, 2017, 04:00:57 AM
New Hampshire:

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 12, 2017, 11:26:13 AM
Average percentage point change is -7.7 which would predict a midterm approval of 35.7%

img

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/830802165887295489

Presidential approval and midterm performance of incumbent parties, 1950-2014. Trump's numbers (#fakepolls) will matter for the GOP.

img

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/829079666631835648


And of course that 1 point showing around -10 to -12 seats @ low-40s approvals will be used as proof that Trump and Republicans will have a tremendous midterm.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 12, 2017, 01:01:48 PM
Gallup (2/9-2/11):

Approve 40% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Bad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 12, 2017, 01:02:54 PM
Gallup (2/9-2/11):

Approve 40% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Bad!

Those numbers are starting to get dangerously low.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 12, 2017, 01:30:00 PM
According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 12, 2017, 02:06:53 PM
According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 12, 2017, 02:10:21 PM
According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

It's basically impossible for a Democrat to be above 55% in disapproval. The demographics just aren't there for it to happen. Republicans have a much lower floor and a much lower ceiling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Figueira on February 12, 2017, 02:12:53 PM
According to Gallup, Obama didn't hit 40% until mid August, 2011, and didn't hit 55% disapproval until late June, 2014. I was looking over the numbers, and I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

It's basically impossible for a Democrat to be above 55% in disapproval. The demographics just aren't there for it to happen. Republicans have a much lower floor and a much lower ceiling.

I don't think so. I'm about as partisan hackish as it gets and there are plenty of Democrats I disapprove of. In fact, the only time I was polled, I said I disapproved of Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 12, 2017, 03:46:21 PM
...I don't think Obama EVER had a net -15% approval rating from Gallup.

Obama had a net -15% or higher 33 times according to Gallup with his lowest at -18% which he got only once in a poll done between October 8th and October 10th 2014 (his highest was right at the begging where he polled at +56% for the first two polls).

Obama never went below 40% in approval or above 55% in disapproval.

That is somewhat false. Gallup polled Obama under 40% approval 39 times and above 55% disapproval six times in his two terms. The lowest approval he had was 38% (which he had eight times) and the highest disapproval he had was 57% (just once). You're not that far off, but the specific numbers you gave are wrong.

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job1a.htm (at the top of the page you can see a link to the rest of the polls)

That being said, Trump has been polling between 50 to 60 percent lower than Obama. If that holds up, Trump will fall lower than Obama ever was (to -19%) in his first 66 days or less.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 12, 2017, 03:55:06 PM
Ah I found the problem, I was looking at this historical ratings page:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 12, 2017, 04:21:34 PM
It's risky to project a trend. The worst that I can project for President Trump based upon precedent is for him to be as unpopular in 2020 as Hoover was in 1932 or Carter was in 1980 and losing in a landslide.

There was no polling with Hoover, so we have only electoral results as a guide. But Hoover and Carter started with great popularity.

Donald Trump starts unusually low and does nothing to improve his standing among voters. He will not reduce economic inequality in America.

If Donald Trump were running for re-election at this time in 2020 with an approval rating of 40% in a binary election, then the average result that he would get as a vote share in the election would be about 46.5% with an average campaign against an average challenger.  (I am arguing based on Nate Silver's "Rule of 6%", which explains how incumbents with approval ratings of 44% or higher usually get re-elected, those with 43% are iffy, and those with approvals of 40% or less early in the campaign season get defeated if they run for re-election).

Paradoxically that is more than he got in 2016. In 2020 that just won't be enough.

We have no idea what sorts of ups and downs he will have. Maybe he will start a successful war for profits and get away with it.  Who knows?  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 12, 2017, 07:04:58 PM
Let's make our predictions...how bad will the GOP get creamed in 2018?

Quote
()

From these data, a few things are immediately clear.
1) The President’s Party never gained seats during Midterms when his approval rating is
under 50%

I still think he'll need to be in the low-30's for D's to not lose Senate seats (which given the rate Trump is going, looks likelier by the day).
Well by losing seats you mean in net gain of general cause I can completely see a 2-2 flip of NV/AZ going D while MO an IN go R today


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 13, 2017, 10:12:14 AM
Canada:

15% approve
84% disapprove

Trudeau:

52% approve
44% disapprove

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/10-days-trump


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on February 13, 2017, 11:14:59 AM
How low do you think it would be if The Media didn't cheer everything he does?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 13, 2017, 11:46:36 AM
I think people are seriously overestimating people's patience with incompetence. What did Bush in was not the ideological stuff, it was mismanagement. Iraq became a quagmire, Katrina a national embarrassment, lethargic response to the economy sliding into recession, infighting, scandals. These weaken base support as people become less inclined to defend their side. It's hard to defend your guy when your opponent can point to so many easy criticisms that have no reasonable response.

The only thing they have right now is "Oh, he's new, give him a chance" - That get's less useful every day and will die a sudden death after the first major challenge highlights this team's inability to run anything competently.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 13, 2017, 01:05:25 PM
I think people are seriously overestimating people's patience with incompetence. What did Bush in was not the ideological stuff, it was mismanagement. Iraq became a quagmire, Katrina a national embarrassment, lethargic response to the economy sliding into recession, infighting, scandals. These weaken base support as people become less inclined to defend their side. It's hard to defend your guy when your opponent can point to so many easy criticisms that have no reasonable response.

The only thing they have right now is "Oh, he's new, give him a chance" - That get's less useful every day and will die a sudden death after the first major challenge highlights this team's inability to run anything competently.

Two things are still going well for him -- the Obama economy and (to the extent that he hasn't made some faux pas in diplomacy with every country that he could possibly make one with) what remains of Obama foreign policy. Yes, the President can maintain policies of his predecessor if he finds them useful, as with Bill Clinton maintaining the Bush '41' foreign policy because it worked well. But Bill Clinton did not have the thorough contempt for his predecessor that Donald Trump has toward Barack Obama. President Trump wants to change everything that his predecessor has 'inflicted' upon America.

When President Trump's new ways go bad, then he might see approvals slip past 35% or so, and the Democrats will not only have the Obama coalition fully intact in 2018 and 2020 but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Doimper on February 13, 2017, 01:24:23 PM
but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

There's a fine line between optimism and wishful thinking


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 13, 2017, 01:32:12 PM

Or Fight!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 14, 2017, 10:37:52 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 6-12:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpVE9uajdzMDRfckk/view

Trump job approval:
approve 46%
disapprove 53%
(Those numbers are the same for both adults and RVs.)

approval margin among…
men: +10
women: -22
white: +10
black: -55
Hispanic: -39
white / no college: +24
white / college degree: -16


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2017, 10:40:27 AM
Can we please remove the "1.0" from the title? The implications are sinister.

And I'll note that during Obama's first term there was no "1.0" in the title.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on February 14, 2017, 11:02:49 AM
Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 14, 2017, 11:04:34 AM
Can we please remove the "1.0" from the title? The implications are sinister.

And I'll note that during Obama's first term there was no "1.0" in the title.

If anything it might just be a 0.25.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 14, 2017, 11:10:24 AM
Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on February 14, 2017, 11:11:21 AM
Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.


You should make that thread "The Official Trump Approval Ratings Thread 2.0" instead of "The Official Trump 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2017, 11:12:42 AM
Okay. I thought the implication was that the thread would max out on replies and that there would be another one out of necessity.

Yeah, at the rate this thread is going, it'll probably get long enough to merit a "2.0" thread by the end of this year.  Presumably Trump will still be in office at the end of 2017.

Then that can be 1.1.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 14, 2017, 11:29:10 AM
Ftr, even though I posted the OP in this thread, I didn't name it.  Ernest did.  I was just posting about a Gallup poll on Trump's favorability back in November, and Ernest merged it with another thread to make a Trump job approval megathread.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 14, 2017, 01:04:49 PM
Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on February 14, 2017, 01:21:39 PM
Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

I think it may dip under 40% as the Flynn scandal develops

This is what I think too. Hopefully he does go down.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 14, 2017, 01:34:31 PM
One thing to look for: really-big waves depend upon the entry of new generations into the political arena as older generations fade out. People born in the 1930s and 1940s are dying off rapidly, so politicians who might still be competent enough if they have a constituency of people who share the same political culture start retiring from public life or being defeated in elections.

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier. Creditors are generally on the right, with small-scale creditors (who might have insurance policies or savings accounts) still concerned about having reliable income to protect their assets from having to be drained in economic downturns  but intent on preventing severe inflation. Big creditors want their pounds of flesh -- to make debt hurt the toiler who has had to borrow, perhaps even pawning himself to survive.

The Millennial generation is entering the stage of life when political careers begin to lead into high offices -- state legislatures, the House and the Senate, and even Governorships. The oldest among them will be in their middle-to-late 30s by 2020, and their pols will have an obvious constituency that the Silent (like Mitch McConnell), Boomers (like Trump and the Clintons) and even X (like Barack Obama) can't fully understand and relate. Obama and Trump have played ethnic demographics for their political successes, if in opposite ways, the former for inclusion and the latter for White Power (yes, that is an ugly slogan, but it fits).  

Millennial adults now fill most of the child-bearing years; even if there are adults in their fifties through seventies fathering children, it is the younger women who will be more important in establishing the culture of children.  Millennial adults are very hands-on parents, and they will not accept poverty in the name of some ideal fifty years from now that requires their children to live in poverty. If they have made great sacrifices on behalf of Corporate America, they do not want their children to get things far worse.

Can I at age 61 speak on behalf of Millennial adults? Hardly. But demographics are the ultimate reality in politics. Politicians who can relate to demographic change can be spectacularly successful. Those that cannot adapt lose.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 14, 2017, 01:40:57 PM
New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier.

I get what you are saying in the rest of the post, but this part - about "Debtors/lefties wanting inflation" - I don't get it. I don't think I've ever heard any Millennial liberal say they want inflation.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 14, 2017, 01:41:52 PM
Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

I think it may dip under 40% as the Flynn scandal develops

This is what I think too. Hopefully he does go down.

I already see a Presidency in disarray, a 'gang who can't shoot straight' riding on fine horses (Obama foreign policy and economic stewardship) that they have not been watering and feeding adequately. Should the horses run away, the 'gang who can't shoot straight' are in deep trouble.

I do not predict day-to-day trends; I seek only to explain them. Extrapolation of trends is risky behavior in statistical analysis.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 14, 2017, 01:45:19 PM
New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier.

I get what you are saying in the rest of the post, but this part - about "Debtors/lefties wanting inflation" - I don't get it. I don't think I've ever heard any Millennial liberal say they want inflation.

No -- but they certainly do not want deflation that makes debts that they owe for such things as student loans and auto loans to become even more onerous. People with no stake in the economic order do not become conservatives.

Economic elites are most successful in oppressing others when those others are deeply in debt in comparison to their income. Just think of the relationship of landowners to sharecroppers.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 14, 2017, 03:43:01 PM
McLaughlin and Associates:

47.6% approve
47.8% disapprove

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/02/13/secure-america-now-february-2017-poll-national-security-issues

(R) pollster for an (R) group.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 14, 2017, 04:18:18 PM
McLaughlin and Associates:

47.6% approve
47.8% disapprove

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/02/13/secure-america-now-february-2017-poll-national-security-issues

(R) pollster for an (R) group.
Decimals are cancerous


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on February 14, 2017, 06:02:06 PM
Ras has shown the same 52/48 split since last Friday, they have never shown him with a negative JA.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on February 14, 2017, 06:23:07 PM
Fox Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/02/14/fox-news-poll-february-14-2017/

Trump Approval Rating:

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 48%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 14, 2017, 06:35:18 PM
Fox Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/02/14/fox-news-poll-february-14-2017/

Trump Approval Rating:

Approve: 49 48%
Disapprove: 48 47%



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 14, 2017, 06:38:41 PM
Fox Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/02/14/fox-news-poll-february-14-2017/

Trump Approval Rating:

Approve: 49 48%
Disapprove: 48 47%


Crosstabs:

men: +15
women: -12
non-white: -42
white college degree: -4
white no college degree: +37
under age 45: -16
over age 45: +12
under $50k: -5
over $50k: +1

7% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.  2% of Trump voters disapprove of his job performance.

Also from that poll:

“Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s executive order on how the United States government will handle immigration, which includes temporarily banning all refugees as well as banning citizens from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen from entering the United States?”

approve 46%
disapporve 52%

On the individual parts of the executive order, a narrow majority oppose the 120 ban on all refugees and the indefinite ban on refugees from Syria.  However, people were more receptive to this part:

“For 90 days, banning people from countries of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen from entering the United States.”

goes to far 48%
about right 38%
doesn’t go far enough 12%
don’t know 2%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 14, 2017, 07:14:37 PM
It's worth noting that 41% of voters *strongly* disapprove of Trump in that poll, versus 35% who strongly approve.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 14, 2017, 08:26:28 PM
Iowa - DMR/Selzer (2/6-2/9) (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/):

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%

Not too good... I'm wondering what his ratings are in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on February 14, 2017, 08:37:17 PM
Iowa - DMR/Selzer (2/6-2/9) (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/):

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%

Not too good... I'm wondering what his ratings are in Wisconsin.

wow...Seltzer is the best pollster too

Had Trump winning Iowa in a blowout. Hard to call them "D-leaning"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 14, 2017, 09:13:32 PM
Obama wasn't Eisenhower. Bill Clinton was that in the 1990s. He even called himself an Eisenhower Republican. The Obama Administration reminds me of a Nixon White House minus the impeachment in terms of political coalitions and moments of time.

Still fellating Bill Clinton, I see...

Um what?

I didn't vote for his wife, and I would've voted Bush and Dole. I don't think he was an impressive president. He mainly maintained the Reagan paradigm. Ike upheld the Roosevelt paradigm.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 14, 2017, 09:31:26 PM
Quote
Iowa - DMR/Selzer (2/6-2/9):

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%

Not too good... I'm wondering what his ratings are in Wisconsin.

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)  (I have one now)

The Democratic firewall of 2008 and 2012 seems to be forming about four months too late to save America from the "Trumpenstein monster".

Selzer has a reputation as one of the best pollsters around, and it consistently showed Trump almost certain to win Iowa throughout 2016.  This is when Trump approval was already at a 40% approval based upon Gallup national polls.

Iowa is probably about R+2 now..

Donald Trump would lose a state that he won decisively in 2016.

 I would like to see polling results for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin before I project the 2020 election at this stage based on six assumptions:

1. Election not rigged

2. Donald Trump is still President (Mike Pence probably goes down with Donald Trump) -- so the President running for election isn't "Chuck Hagel" or "Mitt Romney", in either case, all bets are off

3. Binary election

4. Approval for President Trump is about the same three years from now

5. The usual gain of 6% from approval to vote share applies to Donald Trump from approval against  the average opponent (according to Nate Silver) applies to the President in the states. 

6. Because favorability and recent polls are relatively close in all states, I can use favorability as a valid proxy in my projections.

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 15, 2017, 01:27:06 AM
One thing to look for: really-big waves depend upon the entry of new generations into the political arena as older generations fade out. People born in the 1930s and 1940s are dying off rapidly, so politicians who might still be competent enough if they have a constituency of people who share the same political culture start retiring from public life or being defeated in elections.

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier. Creditors are generally on the right, with small-scale creditors (who might have insurance policies or savings accounts) still concerned about having reliable income to protect their assets from having to be drained in economic downturns  but intent on preventing severe inflation. Big creditors want their pounds of flesh -- to make debt hurt the toiler who has had to borrow, perhaps even pawning himself to survive.

The Millennial generation is entering the stage of life when political careers begin to lead into high offices -- state legislatures, the House and the Senate, and even Governorships. The oldest among them will be in their middle-to-late 30s by 2020, and their pols will have an obvious constituency that the Silent (like Mitch McConnell), Boomers (like Trump and the Clintons) and even X (like Barack Obama) can't fully understand and relate. Obama and Trump have played ethnic demographics for their political successes, if in opposite ways, the former for inclusion and the latter for White Power (yes, that is an ugly slogan, but it fits).  

Millennial adults now fill most of the child-bearing years; even if there are adults in their fifties through seventies fathering children, it is the younger women who will be more important in establishing the culture of children.  Millennial adults are very hands-on parents, and they will not accept poverty in the name of some ideal fifty years from now that requires their children to live in poverty. If they have made great sacrifices on behalf of Corporate America, they do not want their children to get things far worse.

Can I at age 61 speak on behalf of Millennial adults? Hardly. But demographics are the ultimate reality in politics. Politicians who can relate to demographic change can be spectacularly successful. Those that cannot adapt lose.  
Obama is a Boomer although a late one.

I don't think Trump is a White Nationalist although I would say he is a "Nationalist". He did put a lot of work in getting to Non-College Whites to show up and vote for him. "White College Graduates" weren't really his coalition though although he did win or lose them depending on what poll you looked at. Exit Polls the night or the day after Trump won the election showed him winning College Educated Whites but Nate Cohn of NYT showed Trump losing College Educated Whites by 2% Points to Hillary.

As far as adapting to Changing Demographics you have to keep your policies fresh since you don't want to run on stale old policies that the electorate isn't buying(i.e. voting for.) Mondale in 1984 was a victim of this as was Romney in 2012 mostly.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 15, 2017, 01:53:38 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 6-12:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpVE9uajdzMDRfckk/view

Trump job approval:
approve 46%
disapprove 53%
(Those numbers are the same for both adults and RVs.)

approval margin among…
men: +10
women: -22
white: +10
black: -55
Hispanic: -39
white / no college: +24
white / college degree: -16

His numbers with Blacks and Hispanics are what you would expect for a Republican. I feel like he is losing support with "College Educated Whites" since his approvals are -16 with them. He won Non-College Whites by 40% points I think but he has lost 16% points with them to being +24 with them.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on February 15, 2017, 07:40:33 AM
Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 15, 2017, 07:43:49 AM
Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

Was approve +1% last week and approve +8% two weeks ago.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 15, 2017, 09:09:43 AM
Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%


Looks like it's actually 49% approve, 45% disapprove:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170202_topline_Politico_v2_AG.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 15, 2017, 12:35:20 PM
Morning Consult/Politico
Trump Approval Rating: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-warren-235026

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 45%

Looks like it's actually 49% approve, 45% disapprove:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170202_topline_Politico_v2_AG.pdf

Looking down the sheet, I found 49%-46% (I searched "have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donald Trump" using ctrl-f).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 15, 2017, 01:02:17 PM
Gallup:

53% Disapprove (-1)
40% Approve


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 15, 2017, 01:33:06 PM
Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted Feb. 12-14:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5amsxmrtih/econToplines.pdf
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/12jnhk8sf5/econTabReport.pdf

Trump job approval among adults:
approve 43%
disapprove 47%

Trump job approval among RVs:
approve 46%
disapprove 49%

Trump still doing worst among the rich:

income under $50k: -2
income between $50k and $100k: -2
income over $100k: -19

5% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.  5% of Trump voters disapprove of his job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 15, 2017, 02:04:48 PM
If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 15, 2017, 02:13:29 PM
If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.



"Over $100K" includes lots of well-educated engineers, accountants, physicians, dentists, salespeople, and two-income teaching families... I'm guessing that they don't look kindly upon anti-intellectualism that is the cornerstone of the Trump ethos. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on February 15, 2017, 03:37:11 PM
If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.



"Over $100K" includes lots of well-educated engineers, accountants, physicians, dentists, salespeople, and two-income teaching families... I'm guessing that they don't look kindly upon anti-intellectualism that is the cornerstone of the Trump Republican ethos.  

FIFY. Trump is the party now. That's why I suspect these people are trending Democratic despite Republican tax cuts that would favor them. We've reached the point where the party has become anti-intellectual/professional.

I already mentioned in a previous post that the rise of Trump could possibly be a signal that hardliner social conservatives are more closely aligning with economic protectionists due to a mutual coalescing around cultural reactionism, which is very likely to cleavage the white, college-educated, upper-middle class fiscal conservatives away from the Republican Party over time. If cultural issues supplant economics as the coalition's unifying platform, what's in it anymore for the more fiscally conservative, socially moderate, educated Republicans if they are more culturally similar to educated liberals?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 15, 2017, 04:29:11 PM
In one of my favorite comparison maps I demonstrated that an Obama win is practically an inverse of an Eisenhower win. In 2008 and 2012 Obama only once won any state that Adlai Stevenson won in the 1950s -- North Carolina, barely. It's not surprising that he would win only one state that Nixon lost in 1972 (Massachusetts) and Reagan lost in 1984 (Minnesota), as those have been tough states for Republicans to win since 1928. Between those two states and Rhode Island, Republican nominees for President have won those states only four times each since 1924 -- Ike won all three of those states twice. Obama and Eisenhower maps of victory are near inversions of partisan identity.

Both Ike and Obama did extremely well with the 'Educated' vote. Republicans used to do better with educated voters, probably because the core of Democratic strength was long in the under-educated South, where Obama and Ike both did badly. Of course, the ethnic competition of the 'Educated' vote may have changed; first-rate colleges used to be largely a WASP preserve and are no longer such any more. As late as 1964, Republicans got the majority of the 'College-educated' vote even though getting creamed nationally in the 1964 LBJ landslide.

I'm guessing that better-educated people are less amenable to demagoguery and tend to prefer a steady hand. They are conservatives on legal precedent no matter how liberal they may be on other issues.

Elect a steady-hand pol like Eisenhower or Obama, and politics could get deathly boring. Elect Donald Trump and politics can become a circus. Maybe something worse, because the typical circus is allegedly wholesome entertainment.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 16, 2017, 10:58:40 AM
Ipsos/Reuters national poll, conducted Feb. 10-14:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16426

approve 46%
disapprove 50%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2017, 11:03:28 AM
Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 16, 2017, 11:20:50 AM
Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

Thats not how percentages work though.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on February 16, 2017, 11:56:25 AM
RAS has Trump at (55-45).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 16, 2017, 12:02:35 PM

One of these is not like the other...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 16, 2017, 12:25:24 PM
Pew Research Center: 39% approve, 56% disapprove (!). That's a -17 rating. Wow.

()

()

()

http://www.people-press.org/2017/02/16/in-first-month-views-of-trump-are-already-strongly-felt-deeply-polarized/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-02-15%20feb%20political&org=982&lvl=100&ite=819&lea=173153&ctr=0&par=1&trk=


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 16, 2017, 12:31:41 PM
Man those numbers are brutal.

-25% with college educated white voters


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 16, 2017, 12:43:12 PM
The asymmetry on the "strongly" part is what could be the most important in upcoming special elections and in 2018. GOTV is easier if your side is energized.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 16, 2017, 12:53:15 PM
The asymmetry on the "strongly" part is what could be the most important in upcoming special elections and in 2018. GOTV is easier if your side is energized.

Exactly, here's an example in Minnesota:

Quote
Taniel ‏@Taniel  Feb 15
 
More
The GOP defended a state House seat in Minnesota tonight (#32B). But: GOP candidate won by 6.5% where Trump had won by 29% & Romney by 12%.

Republican still won, but it was much closer than it should have been.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 16, 2017, 01:17:00 PM
Gallup (2/13-2/15):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54% (+1)

Change from -13% to -14%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 16, 2017, 01:38:35 PM
Pew Research Center: 39% approve, 56% disapprove (!). That's a -17 rating. Wow.

Jesus. Meanwhile Rasmussen has him at 55-45 lol.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on February 16, 2017, 01:39:52 PM
Somewhat related? Obamacare/ACA is polling net favorable for the first time ever. Last 5 polls were plurality in favor.

()




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on February 16, 2017, 04:41:08 PM
Pew Research Center: 39% approve, 56% disapprove (!). That's a -17 rating. Wow.

First poll to show both <40% approval and >50% disapproval.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 16, 2017, 04:48:50 PM
How accurate was Pew? I know they nailed 2012.

Edit: They had Clinton +6, but they left the field 10/25. They were middle of the pack on the Clinton polling around that time frame, so I would consider this credible. They're usually top notch.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Potus on February 16, 2017, 04:56:50 PM
What is the cause of these giant discrepancies? These are way more than the reasonable expectation of bias. During the campaign you would have three polls, one showed Hillary +3, another Hillary +10, and the third Trump +4. That was a string of polls that people could see some bias and litigate the polls to get closer to the truth. But a poll with President Trump up 10 in one and down 17 in another is an entirely different issue.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on February 16, 2017, 05:00:22 PM
What is the cause of these giant discrepancies? These are way more than the reasonable expectation of bias. During the campaign you would have three polls, one showed Hillary +3, another Hillary +10, and the third Trump +4. That was a string of polls that people could see some bias and litigate the polls to get closer to the truth. But a poll with President Trump up 10 in one and down 17 in another is an entirely different issue.

Rasmussen is using a Likely Voter screen. Which is a little nonsensical this far out.

Also that screen could very likely be "Did you vote in the 2014 elections?" which would skew it heavily in Trump's favor.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 16, 2017, 05:09:37 PM
Better question - is he down by single digits or double?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 16, 2017, 05:36:15 PM
It's just one poll, but if it's true that college whites are tacking to the left of the nation, I'm not sure how he recovers the support he lost from traditionally Republican strongholds like suburban Milwaukee, metro ATL, and Phoenix to name a few. I'd like to hear an argument as to how he brings these numbers back to something more manageable for him, because he certainly hasn't done anything so far to prove he can.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 16, 2017, 06:50:42 PM
Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

1. It's still the Obama economy. The stewardship will change.

2. Repeal and replace... with what? Health savings accounts? Basically with those one ends up pre-paying for medical care near the end of life instead of enjoying life in the here-and-now. That's a raw deal.

3. There hasn't been a terrorist attack yet. President Obama has put the fear of the US Armed Forces in them/ I wonder how long that will last.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 16, 2017, 06:52:52 PM
Real Clear Politics Average: 44.6% approve, 50.3% disapprove/think he's unhinged, -5.7% rating. This includes the abominable Rasmussen poll, btw, so it's one of the more favorable ratings averages for him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 16, 2017, 10:28:26 PM
Interesting that Americans say their 3 most important issues are:

* the economy
* healthcare
* terrorism

And on these 3 issues, Trump has the following approvals:

* the economy (52-37)
* healthcare (47-43)
* terrorism (50-38)

Yet, overall he has a 46-50 approval.

Does that mean that people who said economy was their most important issue gave him an overall 52-37, or does that mean that he got a 52-37 on the economy?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 17, 2017, 04:21:11 AM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: President Johnson on February 17, 2017, 04:27:58 AM

That's why we need to make education great again.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 17, 2017, 07:14:54 AM
^^^
And men too, they basically made Trump possible lol.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BlueSwan on February 17, 2017, 09:07:29 AM
^^^
And men too, they basically made Trump possible lol.
No wonder that Michael Moore released a book entitled "Stupid White Men" back in 2001. He was ahead of his time.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 17, 2017, 12:09:17 PM
Virginia (Quinnipiac University poll) (http://Quinnipiac University poll)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 56%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 17, 2017, 12:10:10 PM
They also find Kaine up 20! over Carly Fiorina and Laura Ingrahm.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2430


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 17, 2017, 12:14:28 PM
Virginia (Quinnipiac University poll) (http://Quinnipiac University poll)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 56%
;(


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 17, 2017, 12:17:22 PM
Virginia (Quinnipiac University poll) (http://Quinnipiac University poll)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 56%
;(

Lmao. That's disastrous.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 17, 2017, 12:22:55 PM
The education gap in that Virginia poll is unreal…

non-whites: -56%
white / college degree: -27%
white / no college degree: +23%

It’s not quite that big for any other questions asked.  For the Kaine vs. Fiorina matchup, for example, the white education gap is 33 points, not 50 points.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Nhoj on February 17, 2017, 12:53:13 PM
One thing people seem to miss on the education gap is how it also correlates in part with age.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 17, 2017, 12:56:54 PM
This only strengthens my view that Virginia's November elections could very well be pretty bad for Republicans in both statewide races and the House of Delegates. Those are truly abysmal numbers, and worse yet, Trump only performs well among white voters who are less likely to vote than their college educated counterparts.

And this is during the time where Trump should be enjoying some of his best numbers. It could very well get worse for him in Virginia by November.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 17, 2017, 01:00:42 PM
Gallup:
38/56

Damn


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 17, 2017, 01:01:31 PM
HOLY SH*T


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 17, 2017, 01:02:03 PM

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 17, 2017, 01:13:58 PM
So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 17, 2017, 01:21:37 PM
So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 17, 2017, 01:33:41 PM
So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

No I mean this poll confirms Pew. I wanted to see if other polls confirmed this, if so Trump could be in political trouble.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 17, 2017, 01:40:54 PM


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 17, 2017, 01:42:09 PM
Pew and Gallup have pretty identical cross-tabs too. Republican support is near 90%, but only about 1/3 of independents and single digits of Democrats approve.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 17, 2017, 01:46:18 PM

With so much ineptitude at full display and Trump completely being unable to control the direction of the dialogue (in addition to him becoming the status quo), this has the potential to go into free-fall mode and hit absolute floors.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 17, 2017, 01:48:10 PM
Looking at this poll visually is startling:

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2017, 01:48:28 PM
Quinnipiac, Virginia:


Quote
President Trump's Approval

President Donald Trump gets a negative 38 - 56 percent job approval rating in the Old Dominion. Republicans approve 81 - 11 percent, but Democrats disapprove 95 - 3 percent and independent voters disapprove 57 - 37 percent. Disapproval is 52 - 41 percent among men, 60 - 35 percent among women and 76 - 20 percent among non-white voters. White voters are divided as 46 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove.

Virginia voters disapprove 55 - 42 percent of President Trump's order banning people from seven countries from entering the U.S.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2430

Virginia is not in an anti-government mood:

Quote
"Both the Trump job approval and the Senate race numbers show the Democratic situation roughly 20 points better off than the GOP," Brown added.

But it would be foolish to see these numbers at this very early point in the Trump administration as anything but a bad start that may or may not remain the case in the months/years to come."

Virginia voters approve 57 - 37 percent of the job Kaine is doing as a U.S. Senator and approve of fellow Democratic Sen. Mark Warner 58 - 26 percent.

Kaine gets a 58 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to 27 - 22 percent for Ingraham, with 50 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her, and a negative 32 - 36 percent for Fiorina, with 31 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her.


But it is anti-Trump.

Favorability:

(
)

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.


[/quote]


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 17, 2017, 01:54:05 PM
So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

No I mean this poll confirms Pew. I wanted to see if other polls confirmed this, if so Trump could be in political trouble.

He already is. If these numbers are true, he's probably only break even in states like Indiana and Missouri, which would significantly help McCaskill and Donnelly.

More to the point he needs better ratings for his legislative agenda. The Congressional Republicans may conclude that they may not benefit from working with Trump if his ratings crash further. Its amazing they don't realize how problematic the man is.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 17, 2017, 02:26:17 PM
So, second poll agreeing with Pew. I wonder what the others will look like.

What was the other under 40? Pew, Gallup... and?

No I mean this poll confirms Pew. I wanted to see if other polls confirmed this, if so Trump could be in political trouble.

He already is. If these numbers are true, he's probably only break even in states like Indiana and Missouri, which would significantly help McCaskill and Donnelly.

More to the point he needs better ratings for his legislative agenda. The Congressional Republicans may conclude that they may not benefit from working with Trump if his ratings crash further. Its amazing they don't realize how problematic the man is.

By this point in his presidency, Obama had passed:

ARRA,
Expanded S-Chip
Lilly Ledbetter

This Congress.... crickets.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on February 17, 2017, 02:57:11 PM
If those numbers are accurate, Democrats should easily win MT-AL and GA-6. We'll see.

Define "easily". I could see Ossoff winning by mid-single digits if Trump's numbers continue to crater, but I fail to see how Amanda-whats-her-piercing wins in Montana. Maybe Quist if he's supported by the national party.

Amanda Curtis? She got 40% in a Republican wave year for Senate. I could see her easily reaching 45% in a House election. That's more than Ossoff could get in GA-6. In the last off-year election, the Democratic candidate got 33%. I can't see any Democrat breaking 40%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 17, 2017, 03:06:51 PM
If those numbers are accurate, Democrats should easily win MT-AL and GA-6. We'll see.

Define "easily". I could see Ossoff winning by mid-single digits if Trump's numbers continue to crater, but I fail to see how Amanda-whats-her-piercing wins in Montana. Maybe Quist if he's supported by the national party.

Montana is actually pretty swingy, and has elected Dems to Congress plenty of times. I doubt how that race would be any harder than GA-06.

Of course, at this rate, Trump's approval may be so low we're talking about KS-03 in a couple months being a D pickup target.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 17, 2017, 03:07:21 PM

As I posted on this thread before, the lowest Obama ever dropped in his full eight years was to -18%. Trump has managed to do the same in his first 30 days.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on February 17, 2017, 03:13:42 PM
By that logic, none of those Southern d Blue Dog seats should've flipped in 2010 cuz they were always landslides. Or MS-1 and LA-6 in 2008 or MA-Sen in 2010. Consider also that Trump is very likely at double digit net disapproval in GA-6 right now (if the national polls are any indication), and I could see a Dem win solely on discontent with his incompetence.

2010 was an exceptional year with a 10% unemployment rate. A Romney Republican who has an unfavorable opinion of Trump is less likely to associate that with his vote in a downballot election. I'm not saying the Democrats shouldn't do better than the 33% they got in 2014, but to actually win would require a gargantuan switch in the district's politics that just don't seem realistic.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on February 17, 2017, 03:16:14 PM
There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 17, 2017, 03:31:21 PM
There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on February 17, 2017, 03:32:58 PM

() (http://s1380.photobucket.com/user/jamariadams18/media/giphy_zps8oemymdo.gif.html)

HALLELUJAH!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on February 17, 2017, 03:38:10 PM
There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

I mean that they're stuck being associated with his agenda and with him being the face of their party. Voters will not put any daylight between the Republican brand and president Trump much as the establishment may hope for that to be the case. But yes, they are spineless, and it's precisely because they no longer can control the ship.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 17, 2017, 04:14:42 PM
Quite the opposite. If they win red territory it'd make waves, but if they lose those areas with the B-list candidates they have, who cares.

Didn't Trump only win that Georgia district by 1? That's hardly red territory. And neither is Montana, for that matter. The state has a Democratic Senator, a Democratic governor and elects Democrats to statewide offices on a regular basis. Now if there were an incumbent like Zinke running, it'd be very tough for them to win, but an open seat should be easily winnable for them - especially if Republicans are as unpopular as the polls say they are.
It's Gingrich's old seat. Highly conservative, but not populist in the slightest. If Ossoff loses to a Trumpist, that's a bad sign. But to a normal conservative? That's to be expected.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 17, 2017, 04:42:21 PM
At the current rate, Trump could reach Dubya's negative record of 25% approval in about three months from now. And that's indeed within the realm of possibility.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 17, 2017, 04:43:46 PM
Lol Republican Clear Politics changed the Pew numbers from A to RV because they wanted better numbers for Trump. Sad.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on February 17, 2017, 07:18:54 PM
There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

Well, as long as you're not poor and/or LGBT. But then Pence is a nice guy, FF so maybe you're right.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 17, 2017, 07:31:57 PM
Before I celebrate, I want to see 2 weeks of him at sub-40% and not rebounding to 45% or something. He's got an economic speech before Congress on February 28, but I assume by March 1, hell resume being peak Trumpy.

Still holding out for the long game here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2017, 07:34:36 PM
Donald Trump can be so disliked as President that by November 2018 Americans vote in a Democratic majority in the House.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 17, 2017, 07:36:40 PM
Donald Trump can be so disliked as President that by November 2018 Americans vote in a Democratic majority in the House.

I'd say also the Senate if the GOP lost NV, AZ, and TX (yes, Cruz could somehow lose) and that would accompany a Democratic majority in the House.

I'm highly skeptical, but we'll see.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on February 17, 2017, 08:16:51 PM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2017, 08:34:38 PM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.
Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 17, 2017, 08:42:41 PM
My point is that if the Democrats lose both MT and GA despite polls saying that 60% of the country disapproves of Trump, they're in trouble (or the polls are wrong). Of course the margin will also tell us a lot.

Eh, I mean we are talking about low turnout special elections here, very soon in the Trump presidency. Unpopular or not, it may not be long enough for him to drag down on the GOP brand. Not that I don't think an unpopular president wouldn't drag down their party - I absolutely do, but I'm not entirely sure it is possible to happen within a span of months after taking office (although you could add on the last 6 months of 2016 too, I suppose)

If Democrats don't win any of these, I'm not considering it much of anything. I'm waiting for a higher turnout general election where enough time will have passed for Trump to seriously exhaust the public's patience and/or for the GOP to pass numerous packages of unpopular policy. It will really take close to a year or more for that. This November's off-off year elections would still be a good test, assuming he is just as (or more) unpopular as today.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on February 17, 2017, 09:06:57 PM
I mean, Hochul and Critz won special elections in McCain districts in 2010, but so did Djou in Hawaii. So really special elections are more often than not their own special things and I wouldn't read much into them for guessing the national mood in 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2017, 09:18:37 PM

Get used to it. First impressions stick.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 17, 2017, 09:19:36 PM

I hope you're right. I am the eternal doubting Thomas here but hopefully.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2017, 09:41:03 PM

I would prefer that he change his ways and stop the damage so that we have a political system worth keeping intact. Maybe we will have a Constitutional Convention and adopt a near-translation of the German Constitution, a constitution with far more protections against dictatorship and despotism than ours. Or perhaps we could have a Westminster-style parliament.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on February 17, 2017, 09:50:21 PM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on February 17, 2017, 10:06:29 PM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Canada, here we come!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 17, 2017, 10:23:20 PM
Atlas overreaction again. The midterms aren't until next year and even if we are to assume his approvals hover ~40% he could very well keep the House thanks to the gerrymandered to all hell districts and the only Senate seats I could see realistically flipping from R to D would be Arizona and Nevada.

Ted Cruz losing to a Democratic opponent? Remember how Hillary was supposed to put Texas in play?

The only thing I see happening with this low approval rating would be in puts vulnerable Senate seats probably into the Likely D column for right now


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 17, 2017, 10:26:53 PM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Honestly, I don't think that's even possible.  If I learned anything from this past campaign, it's that Trump could do anything and still hold on to his hard core base of supporters, which is probably like 25% of the electorate.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 17, 2017, 10:27:59 PM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Honestly, I don't think that's even possible.  If I learned anything from this past campaign, Trump can do anything , and still hold on to his hard core base of supporters, which is probably like 25% of the electorate.

I mean, what was the lowest % approval rating for Bush II? 22%?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2017, 01:40:40 AM
Austria (Marketagent/ServusTV):

"Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job as POTUS so far ?"

16% approve
72% disapprove
12% undecided

"Do you support or oppose a Trump-style immigration stop from majority Muslim countries ?"

41% support
59% oppose

https://www.facebook.com/ServusTV/videos/vb.248450014269/10154669655514270/?type=3&theater


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2017, 02:03:43 AM
Similar to pbrower's map of US states, here's my Trump approval map for countries:

()

So far:

* Germany (13% approval)
* Canada (15% approval)
* Austria (16% approval)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: windjammer on February 18, 2017, 07:46:38 AM
Quite the opposite. If they win red territory it'd make waves, but if they lose those areas with the B-list candidates they have, who cares.

Didn't Trump only win that Georgia district by 1? That's hardly red territory. And neither is Montana, for that matter. The state has a Democratic Senator, a Democratic governor and elects Democrats to statewide offices on a regular basis. Now if there were an incumbent like Zinke running, it'd be very tough for them to win, but an open seat should be easily winnable for them - especially if Republicans are as unpopular as the polls say they are.
It's too early to have a massive backlash against republicans downballot tbh, the 2017 elections will be a bigger indicator than the current special elections.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on February 18, 2017, 12:08:00 PM
Similar to pbrower's map of US states, here's my Trump approval map for countries:

()

So far:

* Germany (13% approval)
* Canada (15% approval)
* Austria (16% approval)

If I had to predict which countries view Trump favorably, I'd probably go with Russia, Belarus, the Philippines, Pakistan, and maybe Kazakhstan, plus all of the random countries that always seem to approve of US leadership like Kenya and maybe Georgia, although they'd probably be weary of how close Trump is to Russia.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 18, 2017, 01:00:56 PM
Gallup: 40/55



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 18, 2017, 01:16:49 PM

Looks like it was just noise. :(


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 18, 2017, 01:21:22 PM
It's a daily tracking poll going up 2 points is naturally, also that's stikl freakin awful


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on February 18, 2017, 04:15:57 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 18, 2017, 04:29:15 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857

45 is still bad, and probably going to get worse.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 18, 2017, 04:48:29 PM
When Trumpists refer to Silver's 45% as more authentic to disprove a 38% rating, in the words of their Glorious God Emperor: Sad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 18, 2017, 05:39:23 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/833060939578617857

This is heavily skewed by Rasmussen at 55, which is at least 8 points higher than the next best one for him.

HuffPo's trendline if you take out Rasmussen is:

approve 42%
disapprove 52%

link (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval/edit#!minpct=0&maxpct=100&mindate=2000-01-01&maxdate=2017-02-18&smoothing=moderate&showpoints=yes&showsplines=yes&hiddenpollsters=rasmussen&hiddensubpops=A%20-%20D,A%20-%20R,A%20-%20i,RV%20-%20D,RV%20-%20R,RV%20-%20i,LV%20-%20D,LV%20-%20R,LV%20-%20i&partisanship=S,P,N&parties=D,R,I,N&selected=approve,disapprove&fudge=1)

Including Rasmussen brings it all the way up to 45%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 18, 2017, 07:11:34 PM
I'd be inclined to include Rasmussen in any average.  There were some instances during the campaign where outlier polls had at least a grain of truth to them.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 18, 2017, 07:20:13 PM
I'd be inclined to include Rasmussen in any average.  There were some instances during the campaign where outlier polls had at least a grain of truth to them.

The problem is their methodology is skewed on purpose to give Trump a higher rating than the other pollsters. If they just released their RV numbers, I wouldn't object to including them in an aggregate either.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on February 18, 2017, 08:47:32 PM
Without much information, I'll guess that the resistance levels for Trump's favorability are:

38-40%: The various republican factions+R-leaning indies (This one might be breached soon)

30-32%: The Republican base (It would take a severe depression hitting rural areas hard for this one to be breached, or an unexpected and large deviation from Republican orthodoxy)

23-25%: The Trumpists and those who support his administration out of self-interest (This one would take a complete failure of his ability to pass and maintain policy for this one to be breached, or a complete failure in policy goals being achieved)

10-12%: The true believers (It would take Trump personally going from town to town holding rallies telling his supporters he hates them for him to fall below this level)



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 19, 2017, 12:50:56 AM
There's a limit to how far he can fall without Republicans souring on him, and we are probably close to that floor at 38%. I would expect him to hover around 37-42/54-58 territory until he begins bleeding support from his own party. Either way, those are terrible numbers to try and muster support for his administrative agenda.

Once he begins clashing with Congressional Republicans on policy and continues to accumulate scandals and defeats as his term progresses, Republican's will no longer provide him with unanimous support. Losing just 15-25% of his current favorability among Republicans could crater his job approval into the low 30s easily. It will be difficult to reduce it to below 30 and unlikely to occur before the midterms, although I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently registers in the 20s by his last year if his tenure unravels into an absolute free-fall over the years.

Still, anything below 40 percent approval virtually guarantees substantial losses for Republicans in the mid-term, and registering closer to 30 percent by late 2018 could result in a Democratic landslide. Either way, Republicans are stuck with him whether they like it or not.

They're not stuck with him, since Pence would be much better for their party AND the country (and foreign relations). They're just p***ies

I mean that they're stuck being associated with his agenda and with him being the face of their party. Voters will not put any daylight between the Republican brand and president Trump much as the establishment may hope for that to be the case. But yes, they are spineless, and it's precisely because they no longer can control the ship.
Keep in mind Congressional Dems voted a lot with Obama in 2009-2010 just like Congressional Republicans are doing now with Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 19, 2017, 12:52:08 AM
The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 19, 2017, 12:56:29 AM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.
Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.


Usually it takes 6-9 months for a President in his first year to completely own the economy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 19, 2017, 01:10:18 AM
The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

It really depends.  Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and if he remains that way, his base could turn out in droves in 2018.  In that case, Dems might make some gains, but it's doubtful they'd be able to win back the house.  I think that prospect hinges on Trump's approval rating eroding at least somewhat with Republicans.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on February 19, 2017, 03:29:03 AM
The Dems will probably win the House in 2018 because Trump isn't very popular.

It really depends.  Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and if he remains that way, his base could turn out in droves in 2018.  In that case, Dems might make some gains, but it's doubtful they'd be able to win back the house.  I think that prospect hinges on Trump's approval rating eroding at least somewhat with Republicans.

Well if he wasn't extremely popular among Republicans right now, that'd be a problem other Presidents never had at this point in their tenure. If he's still posting 85-90% approval among Republicans in May or mid-summer, then we can talk.

Also Democrats supported Obama through pretty much his entire presidency (Did his approval among D's ever drop below 85%?) and that didn't cause them to vote.

It's harder to get people to come and and vote to support/defend a cause than it is to get people to come out with the intent of putting a stop to something. When your party controls every branch of government, it gets just a little bit harder to get off the couch and go vote.


Title: Iowa Poll: Trump's approval rating is underwater with Iowans
Post by: JA on February 19, 2017, 06:13:43 AM
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Quote
Forty-two percent of Iowans approve of the job the newly inaugurated Republican is doing as president, while 49 percent disapprove, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Trump won Iowa on his way to the White House by 9 percentage points in November, his widest victory among states believed by many to be swing states. Iowa Republicans overwhelmingly approve of Trump’s early actions, with 82 percent saying they approve of his job performance. But Democrats register nearly the opposite reaction, with 86 percent disapproving of his performance.
[...]
Independents are leaning against the new president: 50 percent disapprove of his handling of the presidency while 39 percent approve.


Title: Re: Iowa Poll: Trump's approval rating is underwater with Iowans
Post by: progressive85 on February 19, 2017, 06:26:12 AM
Not surprised.  Iowa's independents are moderates.  Iowa is still a swing state, folks.  It swung to Barack and it swung to Trump, but its not the solid-red Republican state it's being made out to be.  2016 is just one election.


Title: Re: Iowa Poll: Trump's approval rating is underwater with Iowans
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 19, 2017, 06:26:58 AM
A lot of people didn't vote for Trump but against Hillary.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 19, 2017, 08:25:15 AM
If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.
Only 9 more points to go!

On a serious note, I think people are severely underestimating the likelihood of him hitting the 20's. If a recession hits, his one trump card is gone. I also think people are OVERestimating how much nonsense/incompetence the public can tolerate. Personally, I think these weekly crises will wear on the public quicker than most think

It is still the Obama economy. Foreign policy has yet to shift fully away from the Obama universe. President Trump and the GOP own any economic meltdown.


Usually it takes 6-9 months for a President in his first year to completely own the economy.

True. It took almost three years for the Iranian hostage situation, which likely killed any chance of Jimmy Carter being re-elected, to come into being.

Six months was the time it took for the Coolidge economy (even if it was doomed before Hoover was inaugurated) to start a three-year implosion. The Obama economy does not have a bubble that makes most profit-seeking to become a Ponzi scheme -- yet.

As my other posts suggest, I expect Donald Trump to be an awful President, someone who blunders into disasters and panics when they happen, offering the wrong solutions and make things even worse, both for his ideology and for his personality. Sordid as his ideology must seem to liberals, his complete lack of probity is even more dangerous.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on February 19, 2017, 09:11:50 AM

I would prefer that he change his ways and stop the damage so that we have a political system worth keeping intact. Maybe we will have a Constitutional Convention and adopt a near-translation of the German Constitution, a constitution with far more protections against dictatorship and despotism than ours. Or perhaps we could have a Westminster-style parliament.


While we are terrifyingly close to the GOP being able to re-write the Constitution, the only nation they're interested in emulating is the Republic of Gilead.


Title: Re: Iowa Poll: Trump's approval rating is underwater with Iowans
Post by: JoshPA on February 19, 2017, 09:15:36 AM
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Quote
Forty-two percent of Iowans approve of the job the newly inaugurated Republican is doing as president, while 49 percent disapprove, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Trump won Iowa on his way to the White House by 9 percentage points in November, his widest victory among states believed by many to be swing states. Iowa Republicans overwhelmingly approve of Trump’s early actions, with 82 percent saying they approve of his job performance. But Democrats register nearly the opposite reaction, with 86 percent disapproving of his performance.
[...]
Independents are leaning against the new president: 50 percent disapprove of his handling of the presidency while 39 percent approve.
can i get the areas they are polling these people most polls i do research about that have trump losing were over sampleing democrats.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JoshPA on February 19, 2017, 09:18:44 AM
I dont believe trust these polls because alot of his action are in the 50s in supports they are oversampling democrats.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 19, 2017, 09:39:54 AM
Also Democrats supported Obama through pretty much his entire presidency (Did his approval among D's ever drop below 85%?) and that didn't cause them to vote.

Obama was just below 80% among Democrats during much of 2013-2015:

link (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval/edit#!minpct=0&maxpct=100&mindate=2008-01-01&maxdate=2017-02-19&smoothing=moderate&showpoints=yes&showsplines=yes&hiddenpollsters=&hiddensubpops=A,A%20-%20R,A%20-%20i,RV,RV%20-%20R,RV%20-%20i,LV,LV%20-%20R,LV%20-%20i&partisanship=S,P,N&parties=D,R,I,N&selected=approve,disapprove&fudge=0.6)

Here's the corresponding graph for Trump among Republicans:

link (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval/edit#!minpct=0&maxpct=100&mindate=2000-01-01&maxdate=2017-02-19&smoothing=moderate&showpoints=yes&showsplines=yes&hiddenpollsters=&hiddensubpops=A,A%20-%20D,A%20-%20i,RV,RV%20-%20D,RV%20-%20i,LV,LV%20-%20D,LV%20-%20i&partisanship=S,P,N&parties=D,R,I,N&selected=approve,disapprove&fudge=1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 19, 2017, 12:04:39 PM
I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Not bad.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Its not good either.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 19, 2017, 01:25:07 PM
Gallup: 41/55 looks like Flynn knocked him down to 38 an his press fued won some back


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on February 19, 2017, 02:06:46 PM
It's probably just noise. It's a daiily tracking poll after all.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 19, 2017, 02:27:49 PM
It's probably just noise. It's a daiily tracking poll after all.
Agreed


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 19, 2017, 02:56:27 PM
A -14 rating compared to -18 is considered surging. Sad!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 19, 2017, 02:58:41 PM
GE needs these ratings up to convince Congress to pass his agenda, by the way. No way they kowtow to someone with deeply negative ratings. Congress puts themselves and their own reelection first.

So if he's still underwater in March or April, he might find his legislative agenda a much heavier lift. It could affect Obamacare repeal among other things (why would Republicans take on huge projects with an unpopular president?)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on February 19, 2017, 03:05:55 PM
I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Not bad.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/02/14/iowa-poll-trumps-approval-rating-underwater-iowans/97856274/

Apparently Obama was even more unpopular in November at -9 (43/52).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 20, 2017, 07:24:43 AM
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/20/uttt-poll-new-president-popular-texas-republicans/

Quote
()
In his second month in office, President Donald Trump is getting overwhelmingly good grades on his job performance from the state’s Republicans, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Trump is popular enough to cast positive light on Russian President Vladimir Putin, a world figure who turns out to be markedly more unpopular with Texas Democrats than with Texas Republicans.

Overall, 46 percent of Texans approve of the job Trump been doing and 44 percent disapprove. But Republicans are crazy about him: 81 percent approve of Trump’s work so far, and only 10 percent disapprove. Moreover, 60 percent of Republicans said they “strongly” approve; another 21 percent approve “somewhat” of the president.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 20, 2017, 08:42:16 AM
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/20/uttt-poll-new-president-popular-texas-republicans/

Quote
()
In his second month in office, President Donald Trump is getting overwhelmingly good grades on his job performance from the state’s Republicans, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Trump is popular enough to cast positive light on Russian President Vladimir Putin, a world figure who turns out to be markedly more unpopular with Texas Democrats than with Texas Republicans.

Overall, 46 percent of Texans approve of the job Trump been doing and 44 percent disapprove. But Republicans are crazy about him: 81 percent approve of Trump’s work so far, and only 10 percent disapprove. Moreover, 60 percent of Republicans said they “strongly” approve; another 21 percent approve “somewhat” of the president.
Wait wait wait they are calling a 46/44 approval in the state of Texas good?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2017, 09:15:17 AM
This is old (spring 2016), but it may be relevant to how the rest of the world sees President Trump:

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 20, 2017, 09:18:54 AM
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02/20/uttt-poll-new-president-popular-texas-republicans/

Quote
()
In his second month in office, President Donald Trump is getting overwhelmingly good grades on his job performance from the state’s Republicans, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Trump is popular enough to cast positive light on Russian President Vladimir Putin, a world figure who turns out to be markedly more unpopular with Texas Democrats than with Texas Republicans.

Overall, 46 percent of Texans approve of the job Trump been doing and 44 percent disapprove. But Republicans are crazy about him: 81 percent approve of Trump’s work so far, and only 10 percent disapprove. Moreover, 60 percent of Republicans said they “strongly” approve; another 21 percent approve “somewhat” of the president.
Wait wait wait they are calling a 46/44 approval in the state of Texas good?

I think they're calling Trump's approval rating among Texas Republicans good.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2017, 09:26:40 AM
Arkansas (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College):

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R):

53% Approve
30% Disapprove

Do you support or oppose President Trump’s travel ban?

61% Support the Trump travel ban
34% Oppose the Trump travel ban

http://talkbusiness.net/2017/02/trump-popularity-unchanged-with-arkansas-voters-hutchinson-job-approval-solid


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 20, 2017, 09:35:18 AM
Arkansas (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College):

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R):

53% Approve
30% Disapprove

Do you support or oppose President Trump’s travel ban?

61% Support the Trump travel ban
34% Oppose the Trump travel ban

http://talkbusiness.net/2017/02/trump-popularity-unchanged-with-arkansas-voters-hutchinson-job-approval-solid
Because Arkansas is so high up on ISIS target list


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 20, 2017, 09:40:22 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 13-17:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfUGtRQ1pxWTdKS0E/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 53%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +6
women: -20
white: +7
black: -53
Hispanic: -28
white / no college: +18
white / college degree: -16


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 20, 2017, 09:47:13 AM
Arkansas (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College):

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R):

53% Approve
30% Disapprove

Do you support or oppose President Trump’s travel ban?

61% Support the Trump travel ban
34% Oppose the Trump travel ban

http://talkbusiness.net/2017/02/trump-popularity-unchanged-with-arkansas-voters-hutchinson-job-approval-solid
Because Arkansas is so high up on ISIS target list

Have you already forgotten the Little Rock massacre???


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2017, 09:51:57 AM
TEXAS

()

President Trump won Texas by about 9% in November, which was the weakest win by any Republican nominee for President in Texas  in twenty years.

It's positive approval, and if this is where Donald Trump (no poll of Texas is precise) is three years from now, then he wins Texas -- barely. But 'barely winning Texas' indicates that he would be losing states that Republican nominees for president just don't lose anymore. 

We need remember that Texas creates huge problems for pollsters because of its size, diversity, and regional difference. Texas straddles regions and is not a region in itself; it does not have a good analogue elsewhere in the United States. 

ARKANSAS (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College):

60% Approve
35% Disapprove

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R):

53% Approve
30% Disapprove

Do you support or oppose President Trump’s travel ban?

61% Support the Trump travel ban
34% Oppose the Trump travel ban

http://talkbusiness.net/2017/02/trump-popularity-unchanged-with-arkansas-voters-hutchinson-job-approval-solid

Favorability:

(
)

...If this sort of polling holds up into 2020, then people watching the Presidential election will have a 38-point mystery lasting long into the evening. But Texas would be the difference between about 400 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee and about 440.

Trump should do extremely well in the Mountain South -- that's certain at this point.

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 20, 2017, 12:53:34 PM
Trump crashed bigly in today's Rasmussen poll:

Approve: 51% (-4)
Disapprove: 49% (+4)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb20


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2017, 01:00:54 PM
Trump crashed bigly in today's Rasmussen poll:

Approve: 51% (-4)
Disapprove: 49% (+4)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_feb20

Must be the credibility gap.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 20, 2017, 01:01:38 PM
The opposite happened in today's Gallup poll:

Approve: 42% (+1)
Disapprove: 53% (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2017, 01:02:20 PM
Rasmussen and the Pew poll are big outliers anyway.

If we use the RCP and Pollster averages, Trump is down about 6-7% nationally.

That's also what the state polls show (they are a bit worse for Trump than his election day results).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 20, 2017, 01:10:36 PM
Trump has a shot at net positive approval assuming he does nothing stupid for like, a solid week. If he can pull that off.

Given all the crap in the air over Russia, not sure he can make a solid week of non-news.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 20, 2017, 01:24:37 PM
The opposite happened in today's Gallup poll:

Approve: 43 42% (+1)
Disapprove: 52 53% (-2)

I think it's just noise really. I'm having a lot of trouble imagining a large enough group of people who would go from disapproving to approving of him based on merit.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 20, 2017, 01:32:42 PM
The University of Texas poll is god awful. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong necessarily, but still.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2017, 02:05:55 PM
The University of Texas poll is god awful. Doesn't mean the numbers are wrong necessarily, but still.

Texas is simply a tough state to poll.

The state straddles regions, it is ethnically diverse, it has economics from cotton to semiconductors, and it contains areas with of obvious analogues outside of Texas.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 21, 2017, 02:12:41 AM
http://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/mercyhurst-poll-trumps-approval-rating-in-erie-county-at-41-percent/660441453

Quote
ERIE, Pa. -- Despite Erie County going red during the general election, a new poll shows that some Erie County residents do not approve of President Donald Trump's actions.

The poll, conducted by Mercyhurst University's Center for Applied Politics, found 41 percent of 419 registered voters in the county approve of Trump and 49 percent disapprove.

Sixty percent disapprove of how he is handling relationships with other nations compared to 30 percent that approve.

Fifty-three percent said that Trump's criticism of the media is unfair while 41 percent say it's justified.   
[...]
Despite much of the negativity, 49 percent of people did approve of the way he is handling the economy.

Trump won Erie County, PA 48%-46%. Obama won the County in 2012 by 57%-41%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 21, 2017, 02:33:11 AM
http://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/mercyhurst-poll-trumps-approval-rating-in-erie-county-at-41-percent/660441453

Quote
ERIE, Pa. -- Despite Erie County going red during the general election, a new poll shows that some Erie County residents do not approve of President Donald Trump's actions.

The poll, conducted by Mercyhurst University's Center for Applied Politics, found 41 percent of 419 registered voters in the county approve of Trump and 49 percent disapprove.

Sixty percent disapprove of how he is handling relationships with other nations compared to 30 percent that approve.

Fifty-three percent said that Trump's criticism of the media is unfair while 41 percent say it's justified.  
[...]
Despite much of the negativity, 49 percent of people did approve of the way he is handling the economy.

Trump won Erie County, PA 48%-46%. Obama won the County in 2012 by 57%-41%.

In view of recent polls of Iowa and Michigan, I would expect President Trump to be underwater statewide in Pennsylvania.  Iowa was about R+2 against the Gallup poll. Erie County reflects that Donald Trump was able to address the economic misery of the Rust Belt without offering a tangible solution.  Now he needs solutions, and his purported solutions are all religious bigotry and special-interest favors that will do more harm than good.

I expect to see approval polls of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin fairly soon because those states were polled frequently in 2009 and 2013, often by Quinnipiac.

Show me polling for those three states and I will give you the earliest projection of the 2020 Presidential election.

...Handling the economy? It's still the Obama economy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on February 21, 2017, 09:39:40 AM
Somehow signing a few EO means he's done more than Obama did in 8 years according to some of his supporters. And repealing the coal stream rule will save 70,000 coal jobs that don't exist but whatever.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 21, 2017, 10:55:51 AM
HuffPo/YouGov national poll, conducted Feb. 17-18:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPPresidentTrump20170218.pdf

approve 41%
disapprove 47%

men: +4
women: -16
income under $50k: -10
income between $50k and $100k: +/-0
income over $100k: -1
Midwest: -5
Northeast: -21
South: +7
West: -13


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on February 21, 2017, 12:39:28 PM
Rasmussen approval now down to 50-50. They are still using likely voters for some reason.

Gallup ticks down to 41-53 (was 42-53).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 21, 2017, 01:00:20 PM
ARG

Approve 43%
Disapprove 51%

Source (http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 21, 2017, 01:31:39 PM
Gallup

41% Approve (-1)
53% Disapprove ( )


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 21, 2017, 01:37:54 PM
ARG

Approve 43%
Disapprove 51%

Source (http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/)

ARGH!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 21, 2017, 02:41:14 PM
Virginia: Roanoke Poll   (http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Feb%202017%20Politics%20topline(0).pdf)

Approve 32%
Disapprove 50%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 21, 2017, 04:31:49 PM
Virginia: Roanoke Poll   (http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Feb%202017%20Politics%20topline(0).pdf)

Approve 32%
Disapprove 50%

Methinks the GOP will probably lose the Governor's race again...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 21, 2017, 08:30:02 PM
Virginia: Roanoke Poll   (http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Feb%202017%20Politics%20topline(0).pdf)

Approve 32%
Disapprove 50%

Methinks the GOP will probably lose the Governor's race again...

...and a handful of House seats. That is the most effective way to stop the Trump agenda should voters get sick of the President. 
....................

I hope to see some polls of states that have yet to be polled since the election. Virginia seems to be careening away from the GOP much as West Virginia careened away from the Democrats around 2000.





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 21, 2017, 09:18:30 PM
Gallup:
40 (-1)
54 (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on February 21, 2017, 09:26:13 PM

Where'd you see that?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 21, 2017, 09:29:45 PM
http://www.gallup.com/topic/politics.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on February 21, 2017, 09:32:00 PM

That seems to be a weekly average.

Here is for weekly averages:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Here is for daily updates:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 22, 2017, 09:26:43 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 22, 2017, 09:32:27 AM
SurveyMonkey just came out with a poll two days ago, but looks like they did another one on overlapping dates, this one sponsored by NBC, and conducted Feb. 13-19:

pdf link (http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20News%20SurveyMonkey%20Toplines%20and%20Methodology%202.22.pdf)

Trump job approval:
approve 43%
disapprove 54%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 22, 2017, 12:09:25 PM
Tennessee (MTSU): (http://mtsupoll.org/2017/02/22/trumps-approval-on-the-edge-in-tennessee/)

51% Approve
32% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 22, 2017, 12:23:31 PM
Marist:

41% approve
49% disapprove

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article134111259.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 22, 2017, 12:34:25 PM
Marist:

41% approve
49% disapprove

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article134111259.html

Midwest: -11
Northeast: -23
South: +8
West: -17


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 22, 2017, 12:36:27 PM
Marist:

41% approve
49% disapprove

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article134111259.html

Midwest: -11
Northeast: -23
South: +8
West: -17


Those Midwest and West numbers are staggeringly bad.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on February 22, 2017, 01:04:38 PM
Gallup (2/19/17-2/21/17):

Approve 42% (+1)
Disapprove 52% (-1)

Change from -12% to -10%


Also, this is the first time that Trump is less than 50% behind Obama in net approval (Obama was at +37% at this point in his presidency).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 22, 2017, 02:08:26 PM
Q-Poll (1,323 RVs, Feb 16-21, Landline and Cell Phone).

February 22nd (Change from February 7th)
Approve 38 (-4)
Dissaprove 55 (+4)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2431

American voters today give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 55 percent job approval rating, his worst net score since he took office, down from a negative 42 - 51 percent approval rating in a February 7 Quinnipiac University national poll.

President Trump's negative scores are 36 - 59 percent among women and 41 - 50 percent among men, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Republicans approve 83 - 10 percent, while negative approval ratings are 5 - 91 percent among Democrats and 38 - 55 percent among independent voters.

Trump gets a negative 39 - 55 percent favorability rating, also his worst net score since taking office. Vice President Mike Pence gets a split 41 - 40 percent favorability.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 22, 2017, 02:13:43 PM
Quinnipiac asked voters who they trust more to tell them "the truth about important issues" --

Trump 37%
News media 52%

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 22, 2017, 02:21:28 PM
We're generally getting two different types of polling based on the typology. Automated seems to be recording higher rates of support while live callers are seeing lower levels of support. That said the average has usually been spot on. A weighted average like what Silver plans would probably be the most accurate aggregate of where Trump stands.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 22, 2017, 03:48:46 PM
Quinnipiac asked voters who they trust more to tell them "the truth about important issues" --

Trump 37%
News media 52%



I want this to be true...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: adrac on February 23, 2017, 12:15:35 AM
How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 23, 2017, 12:19:10 AM
How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?

When just enough of the country thinks the alternative is bad enough to bite the bullet and vote for the lesser of evils.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 23, 2017, 12:20:57 AM
How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?
Cause it was 49% in the right areas


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 02:25:44 AM
How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?
Cause it was 49% in the right areas

Rural Michigan. Rural Wisconsin. Rural Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 23, 2017, 03:18:43 AM
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-goucher-trump-poll-20170222-story.html

Quote
Trump has support from 29 percent of Marylanders, compared with 64 percent who disapprove of the job he has done so far, according to the Goucher Poll to be released today. That is a worse margin than the Republican had in Maryland on Election Day, when he lost the state to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 24 percentage points.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 23, 2017, 03:23:36 AM
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-trump-scott-riding-high-florida-republicans-richard-corcoran-who

Quote
A new Associated Industries of Florida poll released Wednesday found Florida Republicans are still rootin’ tootin’ Trump fans, with 67 net percent approving of his current job as president.

Trump’s base continues to be a stronghold of support, with 56 percent strongly approving of the job he’s doing as president.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 05:01:30 AM
...and this poll is taken by a TRADE ORGANIZATION, asking only Republicans.

It's called 'damning with faint praise', much like saying that some .220 hitter occasionally gets some 'big hit'. Never mind that in the meantime he grounds out a lot and hits lots of medium-fly balls that almost always get caught. President Trump's low popularity in Florida can put an end to the political career of Governor Rick Scott and ensure that the Governor of Florida will do no special favors for the President in November 2018.

67% approval of the incumbent from his own Party indicates a political disaster in the making -- and this is before an economic meltdown, a sex scandal, a tale of bribery, bungling of a natural disaster, or a military or diplomatic debacle -- none of which have yet happened.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 23, 2017, 05:16:15 AM
Interestingly, the poll from Maryland shows he has an approval rating among Republicans in that state of 71% and an approval rating among all voters of 29%. I'm now very curious what Trump's total approval rating is in Florida, where only 67% of Republicans support him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 06:27:34 AM
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-goucher-trump-poll-20170222-story.html

Quote
Trump has support from 29 percent of Marylanders, compared with 64 percent who disapprove of the job he has done so far, according to the Goucher Poll to be released today. That is a worse margin than the Republican had in Maryland on Election Day, when he lost the state to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 24 percentage points.

Ouch! This is the zone in which military coups happen in some countries. But it is Maryland, one of the states most hostile to nationwide Republicans. 


Tennessee (MTSU):

51% Approve
32% Disapprove

Quote
Trump’s Tennessee “hangover” similar to Obama’s Tennessee “honeymoon”

Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” the poll found that 51 percent approve, 32 percent disapprove, and 17 percent don’t know or don’t answer.

For comparison, when the spring 2009 MTSU Poll was conducted shortly after Barack Obama took office, it asked whether respondents approved of the job he was doing as president and found that 53 percent approved, 27 percent disapproved, and 20 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer.

Those were Obama’s best job approval ratings in Tennessee during his presidency. In most of the polls that followed, around 35 percent of Tennesseans said they approved of the job Obama was doing. Similarly, when asked to look back on Obama’s presidency as a whole in the latest MTSU Poll, only 39 percent said they approve, and 56 percent said they disapprove.

Obama lost the state of Tennessee with only 42 percent of the vote in 2008. Trump won the state with 61 percent of the vote in 2016.

http://mtsupoll.org/2017/02/22/trumps-approval-on-the-edge-in-tennessee/
Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 23, 2017, 07:23:06 AM
The poll says 67 net percent, not 67 percent total.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 23, 2017, 07:29:41 AM
http://m.republicanherald.com/news/poll-disappointment-in-trump-casey-wolf-1.2158470

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 23, 2017, 07:41:05 AM
http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/winthrop-poll-sc-residents-react-to-prestrump-economy/413300507
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Quote
Rock Hill, SC (Winthrop University)- The latest Winthrop Poll results show that 47% of South Carolina residents disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the nation’s top job, while 44% approve. His approval numbers in South Carolina are higher than his current national approval rating.

Within his own party, the 45th president has support from 77% of residents who are GOP or lean Republican. Donald Trump received nearly 55% of the November presidential votes cast in South Carolina.

• 58-34% of Whites approve of Trump; 7-79% of Blacks disapprove
• 51-39% of males approve of Trump; 54-37% of females disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 23, 2017, 08:04:12 AM
CBS Poll (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-immigration-is-most-important-problem-for-trump-and-congress/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=34797879)

39% Approve
51% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 23, 2017, 09:09:11 AM
Holy moly, he's tanking everywhere. Those numbers in SC are especially surprising.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: windjammer on February 23, 2017, 09:17:38 AM
He seems to be around -10 right now


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 10:05:30 AM
Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.  Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor. 32% have President Trump at "excellent or good", 54% at poor, 13% fair.  Awful, really.

http://m.republicanherald.com/news/poll-disappointment-in-trump-casey-wolf-1.2158470

South Carolina, Winthrop University.

44% approve, 47% disapprove.

...and he gets only 77% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. 

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

CBS national poll. 39% approve, 51% disapprove.  I don;t show national polls on the map, but if anyone wants to guess that the President is faring better than this in Wisconsin or Ohio, go right ahead and believe it. .

Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on February 23, 2017, 10:11:06 AM
http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/winthrop-poll-sc-residents-react-to-prestrump-economy/413300507
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Quote
Rock Hill, SC (Winthrop University)- The latest Winthrop Poll results show that 47% of South Carolina residents disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the nation’s top job, while 44% approve. His approval numbers in South Carolina are higher than his current national approval rating.

Within his own party, the 45th president has support from 77% of residents who are GOP or lean Republican. Donald Trump received nearly 55% of the November presidential votes cast in South Carolina.

• 58-34% of Whites approve of Trump; 7-79% of Blacks disapprove
• 51-39% of males approve of Trump; 54-37% of females disapprove


I wonder what Mississippi's numbers look like. Probably not necessarily where I want them to be, but SC is sorta similar to MS so this could be a good heads-up of what MS may feel.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on February 23, 2017, 10:38:36 AM
Interestingly, the poll from Maryland shows he has an approval rating among Republicans in that state of 71% and an approval rating among all voters of 29%. I'm now very curious what Trump's total approval rating is in Florida, where only 67% of Republicans support him.

Well Florida does have more Republicans but also Dixiecrats. I'd say I his approval is near the national average.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 12:02:18 PM
Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results.

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, or (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached whether by Congress or a military junta. Crazy as things are now I can't even rule out a military coup. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

 NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

      
(
)

white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%


Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 12:43:56 PM
We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 23, 2017, 01:56:00 PM
Today's Gallup:

Approve: 43% (+1)
Disapprove: 52%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on February 23, 2017, 01:59:12 PM
We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.   


Perhaps a model that combines polling from several states to quantify where a state might stand? For example, Ohio + Minnesota might approximate where Wisconsin really stands.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 02:15:41 PM
We can do some fill-ins. It's obvious that President Trump will have no chance in Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, or Hawaii.  On the other side, I can expect Trump to be re-elected by big margins in states that Obama lost big twice (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska (except for NE-02), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Because much of the vote in Missouri is in the Ozarks and has much in common in culture with West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, I expect Trump to win Missouri. Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was something of a freak and likely unrepeatable.  Montana might vote for a Democrat for Governor or for a Senate seat, and was close for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't in 2012.

I expect Minnesota to be Minnesota, a fairly liberal state, and Wisconsin to move with Iowa back to the D column. Georgia was close in 2008 and 2016, so I'm not guessing there. South Carolina makes Georgia intriguing. Ohio? I'm saying nothing until I see a poll of Ohio. The sorts of people who swung Ohio from D to R in 2016 might behave much as such voters look likely to do in Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.   


Perhaps a model that combines polling from several states to quantify where a state might stand? For example, Ohio + Minnesota might approximate where Wisconsin really stands.

Another is to see the Presidential election of 2016 as an anomaly with Obama 2012  with such states as  Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee (maybe), and Texas drifting slightly D.

Watch gubernatorial elections in 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on February 23, 2017, 06:26:01 PM
I think that the deep south will have roughly even approvals, with MS or AL having the highest of that set of states and Georgia the lowest


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 23, 2017, 07:48:01 PM
I think that the deep south will have roughly even approvals, with MS or AL having the highest of that set of states and Georgia the lowest

You are probably right. I show South Carolina as negative, and I would expect much the same in Georgia.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 23, 2017, 11:16:25 PM
I wonder what Mississippi's numbers look like. Probably not necessarily where I want them to be, but SC is sorta similar to MS so this could be a good heads-up of what MS may feel.
Yes and no.  We have one senator who's been fairly regularly bashing Trump and a fair amount of our economy depends upon international trade, neither of which true for Mississippi.  On the other hand, the fact that a fair number of are Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump doesn't mean that they wouldn't vote for him over a Democrat in 2020.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 24, 2017, 10:56:57 AM
PPP (Feb 21/22)

Approve 45 (+2)
Dissaprove 48 (-5)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_22417.pdf

Other good stuff in there on the media, etc.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 24, 2017, 12:41:03 PM
Ipsos/Reuters national poll, conducted Feb. 17-21:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16437

approve 45%
disapprove 50%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 24, 2017, 01:16:28 PM
Today's Gallup:

Approve: 43% (nc)
Disapprove: 52% (nc)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 25, 2017, 08:15:56 AM
At this point I would project a minimum of 321 electoral votes for the average Democratic nominee for President in the re-election bid of Donald Trump  based on giving anything in any shade of red, anything that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 except New Hampshire and ME-02, and Wisconsin, which I would expect to be close to Iowa. That's if I concede New Hampshire, ME-02, and Ohio, which is rather generous to President Trump with the data that I have.

That assumes that nothing really changes in three years and the usual dynamics of a Preisdential campaign apply from then.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on February 25, 2017, 10:07:48 AM
Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 25, 2017, 10:25:08 AM
NBC/Survey Monkey: (http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-more-half-disapprove-donald-trump-s-job-performance-n724856)

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 25, 2017, 10:25:21 AM
Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

Even Bush jr. was above water in October and November of 2004. Still, people vote Trump even though they disapprove so I dont know.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 25, 2017, 10:55:51 AM
Granted, it's only been about a month....but say his approval is the same or worse throughout the 2020 election.

Has there ever been an incumbent president with similar approval ratings who won reelection?

My assumption for this model is that his approval ratings stabilize around 40% and stay there. That is a cautious assumption, one that paradoxically might allow him to get a higher percentage of the total vote in 2020 and still lose.  Remember that he got about the same percentage of the total vote as Dukakis got in 1988 and that McCain got in 2008.

I can hardly expect him to do better than 40% or so over time. He has yet to fully enact an economic agenda that requires great reductions in living standards by most people on behalf of economic elites for benefits that won't appear for most people for at least twenty years... maybe, and if those benefits never appear, that's just too bad. He has yet to face an economic tailspin, and in view of the administrative chaos that we have all seen so far, I can't expect him to perform the sort of economic stewardship that either mitigates the harm or sets the economy on a new and better course. In view of the stormy relationship between him and both the intelligence services and the Armed Forces, I hardly expect any international crisis to go well while he is President -- and such crises are more likely to happen when the President shoots his mouth off about a major religion and about illegal immigrants who have been doing little harm.

So what will the electoral map look like if he has an approval rating around 30%? He could put together a scenario in which one gets the Obama states and the Carter states together... and then some.



He would not have to lose much to lose Texas. My model has Trump winning 52% of the popular vote in Texas  







Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 25, 2017, 12:49:21 PM
NBC/Survey Monkey: (http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-more-half-disapprove-donald-trump-s-job-performance-n724856)

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

I posted that poll three days ago.  :P

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5537375#msg5537375


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on February 25, 2017, 12:58:37 PM
NBC/Survey Monkey: (http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-more-half-disapprove-donald-trump-s-job-performance-n724856)

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

I posted that poll three days ago.  :P

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5537375#msg5537375


The article was published yesterday, so I thought it was new.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 25, 2017, 01:07:19 PM
Gallup:
41(-2)
53(+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 25, 2017, 01:20:06 PM
Damn son


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 25, 2017, 03:04:18 PM
How does one win national elections when 49% of the country "disapproves strongly" of your president?
Cause it was 49% in the right areas

Rural Michigan. Rural Wisconsin. Rural Pennsylvania.
Macomb County, Michigan is not rural its part of the Detroit Burbs'. I'm not sure  Saginaw County is part of the Detroit Burb's because it looks a little far from Detroit but its far from the UP as well. Romney did good in the UP but he didn't win the state in 2012 and he lost Macomb and Saginaw to Obama and Trump won those 2 counties.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 25, 2017, 03:08:43 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on February 25, 2017, 03:21:05 PM
Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results.

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, or (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached whether by Congress or a military junta. Crazy as things are now I can't even rule out a military coup. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

 NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

      
(
)

white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%


Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%



Foreign-born Asian Women don't have the same fertility rates as Foreign-born Hispanic Women do. Foreign-Born Hispanic Women give birth to an average of 3 kids where as other women(White, Asian, Black, and US Born Hispanic Women) give birth to an average of 2 kids. I think US-Born Hispanic Women their fertility rates were 3 kids before the late 2000's recession if I am correct before the housing bubble burst and their husbands or boyfriends job rates in the construction industry declined. Most Asian population growth is via immigration from East Asia.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 25, 2017, 04:18:19 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on February 26, 2017, 09:11:48 AM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 26, 2017, 10:28:42 AM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

()

()

“President Trump implemented a temporary travel ban for people from seven countries including Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.  This ban would last for three or four months for people from those countries and indefinitely for refugees from Syria until enhanced vetting procedures could be put into place.  This ban was struck down by the federal courts and the existing vetting process that was being used before President Trump’s travel ban remains in place.

Do you think a temporary ban from these seven countries…”

is necessary 44%
is unnecessary 45%
don’t know enough to have an opinion yet 10%
not sure 1%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 26, 2017, 01:16:15 PM
Today's Gallup:

Approve 41% (nc)
Disapprove 54% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Maxwell on February 26, 2017, 01:17:58 PM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 26, 2017, 01:22:50 PM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on February 26, 2017, 01:28:06 PM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 26, 2017, 02:35:18 PM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: windjammer on February 27, 2017, 06:49:15 AM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.
^^^^^


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on February 27, 2017, 07:26:23 AM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.
^^^^^

And about as "deplorable" as Bernie people are "against capitalism". They all lie on a spectrum from just thinking they are not ready to fully embrace what they think is strange or new to honest hatred of anyone and any thing they that they don't consider White, Christian, or American.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on February 27, 2017, 01:44:17 PM
Gallup: 42 (+1)
           54 (nc)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on February 27, 2017, 03:17:26 PM
NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

that poll also has congressional approval rating at 29%, about 20 points higher than you usually see it.

That's because Republicans are understandably happier about things than usual.

The poll also shows that the percentage of people saying the system is rigged against them flipped to negative for the first time in over a decade. It used to be a statistic used by Bernie types to argue against neoliberalism. Kind of makes you wonder that some of those people were just Republicans unhappy about Obama.

I think the Bernie types have mistaken a lot of the anti-establishment sentiment of the white working class as animated by opposition to neoliberalism, when in reality it has been anti-cosmopolitanism.

This times a billion zillion trillion


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 27, 2017, 03:59:22 PM
https://buffalonews.com/2017/02/27/trump-slides-cuomo-rises-new-poll-among-new-yorkers/

Quote
The Siena College Research Institute said 68 percent of poll respondents in blue state New York believe Trump is doing a bad job as president, and 59 percent view him as personally unfavorable.

The attitudes toward the president stretch across various demographic groups along income, age and religious backgrounds. Younger voters, or those younger than 34, give Trump the least favorable job ranking among three different age breakdowns. Sixty-two percent of whites give him a negative job performance rating; among blacks, that negative view was given by 96 percent of respondents. Beyond job performance, when asked how they view him personally, only 36 percent said they do so favorably.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2017, 04:54:29 PM
New York State, Siena. The state in which Donald Trump is best known doesn't like how he is doing. His favorability has slipped to 36% for Siena (but that is one category higher than the poll most recently been using), but it is still 36-59, 17% underwater. More significantly,
 
Quote
Only 29 percent of New Yorkers give him a positive job performance rating, while 68 percent rate his job performance negatively.


See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-give-cuomo-his-best-favorability-job-performance-ratings-in-more-tha#sthash.rlflo57P.dpuf  

Don't be surprised if some new state polls come in tomorrow and Wednesday.

Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.



Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.






Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on February 27, 2017, 05:05:16 PM
New York State, Siena. The state in which Donald Trump is best known doesn't like how he is doing. His favorability has slipped to 36% for Siena (but that is one category higher than the poll most recently been using), but it is still 36-59, 17% underwater. More significantly,
 
Quote
Only 29 percent of New Yorkers give him a positive job performance rating, while 68 percent rate his job performance negatively.


See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-give-cuomo-his-best-favorability-job-performance-ratings-in-more-tha#sthash.rlflo57P.dpuf 

Don't be surprised if some new state polls come in tomorrow and Wednesday.

Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.

March begins in about seven hours on the East Coast.

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.




[/quote]
Who are these people who disapprove of but have favorable opinion of trump?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 28, 2017, 01:40:20 AM
On the economy: it is still the Obama economy, or the Federal Reserve Bank really manages it.

President Trump has yet to force economic reforms likely to inflict pain on the masses so that the super-rich can get even more -- like a national "Right-to-Work" (for much less, as union officials call it), abolition of the minimum wage laws, tax shifts, and destruction of the welfare system.  He has yet to succeed at forming an economic bubble analogous to the real estate mess of fifteen years ago.

We can pay more attention to approval than to favorability. Approval generally means recognition of the merits or demerits of official performance. It is possible to like someone who is hurting one, as in certain stages of an abusive relationship.  But that usually sours fast.

What is telling? New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut* residents likely know Donald Trump the person far better than any other Americans. If his approval rating in New York state is 29%,  and this is significantly lower than is normal for Republican Presidents in New York, then we can only imagine what direction his support will take in such states as Georgia*, Minnesota*, Ohio*, and Wisconsin* and will take over time. 

*states for which I have no polling data.

Can anyone come up with polling data for President Trump in New Jersey and New York from the first term of President George W. Bush? 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on February 28, 2017, 12:23:59 PM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday:

50% approve
50% disapprove.

34% who Strongly Approve
41% who Strongly Disapprove.

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7.

Even Ras is about to go under? Good.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on February 28, 2017, 01:36:30 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 42% (nc)
Disapprove: 54% (nc)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on February 28, 2017, 01:59:53 PM
He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 28, 2017, 02:05:50 PM
Lee Iaccocca, a far smarter and more astute business executive than Donald Trump, recognized that although he had saved Chrysler from bankruptcy in the 1980s he did not have as broad a knowledge as was necessary for being President. Just because he had worked wonders in business did not mean that he could do the same in something far more complicated. Profit-and-loss creates simple criteria of success and failure in business.

The Professor of Constitutional Law is looking all the better every day.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on February 28, 2017, 02:08:40 PM
I'm wondering how long he can keep his base happy with no legislation passed, besides the new immigration EO what else is left?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on February 28, 2017, 03:27:54 PM
Baiting educated 'elites'?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on February 28, 2017, 06:26:25 PM
http://www.greensboro.com/news/local_news/hpu-poll-fewer-than-half-give-thumbs-up-to-donald/article_d7e81f5a-966d-5025-8d0d-f85b0823d94d.html

Quote
Fifty-five percent disapprove of the president’s job performance. That’s up three points — or three points worse, to put it another way — from the HPU Poll a month ago.

Trump’s approval rating — 36 percent — remains unchanged from last month’s HPU Poll. In the new poll, 10 percent have no opinion on how the president is doing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: MasterJedi on February 28, 2017, 06:52:21 PM
He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on February 28, 2017, 08:41:26 PM
He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

I don't think this works. The public blames the President and the party of the President for everything no matter who controls Congress, barring very unusual circumstances like a government shutdown. It just hasn't been anywhere near long enough for conservatives to start losing faith yet. Wait until the fall or next year.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 01, 2017, 01:16:06 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 43% (+1)
Disapprove: 52% (-2)

I think we can count on his approvals rallying a bit (or perhaps a lot) over the next few days.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 01, 2017, 08:31:48 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 01, 2017, 08:33:05 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Surely if the Democratic party keeps yelling Russia really loudly, they can beat him?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 01, 2017, 08:51:05 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


1) No way his approval is -5 with Hispanics
2) No way his approval is positive in the West given the Pacific coast states


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 01, 2017, 10:00:40 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Surely if the Democratic party keeps yelling Russia really loudly, they can beat him?
You were saying?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 02, 2017, 12:31:07 AM
Economist/YouGov (Conducted 2/25 - 3/1) (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qai0kpu1rl/econTabReport.pdf)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%

Reuters/Ipsos (Conducted 2/24 - 2/28) (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7589)
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 48%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 02, 2017, 09:09:44 AM
Economist/YouGov (Conducted 2/25 - 3/1) (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qai0kpu1rl/econTabReport.pdf)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%

men: -7
women: -11
income under $50k: -16
income between $50k and $100k: +10
income over $100k: -11
white: +2
black: -59
Hispanic: -17


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 02, 2017, 09:25:52 AM
I notice a paucity of statewide polling. Nothing so far for

Colorado
Georgia
Maine
Minnesota
Nevada
Ohio
Wisconsin


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on March 02, 2017, 01:49:03 PM
Gallup (2/27/17-3/1/17):

Approve 43% (±0)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

Change from -9% to -8%

This is the highest he's polled in about a month*.

*In terms of net approval.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 02, 2017, 01:57:44 PM
Gallup (2/27/17-3/1/17):

Approve 43% (±0)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

Change from -9% to -8%

This is the highest he's polled in about a month.

It's going to take a turn soon enough with this mess that's transpired.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 03, 2017, 11:52:13 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 24 - Mar. 2:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArclliZElUcm9RRjg/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 54%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +7
women: -22
white: +10
black: -60
Hispanic: -40
white / no college: +20
white / college degree: -14


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 03, 2017, 11:55:16 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 24 - Mar. 2:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArclliZElUcm9RRjg/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 54%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +7
women: -22
white: +10
black: -60
Hispanic: -40
white / no college: +20
white / college degree: -14


That disapproval number though.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 03, 2017, 02:09:08 PM
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 03, 2017, 02:25:19 PM
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

Usually Presidential speeches give the President a little boost.

Donald Trump isn;t exactly Barack Obama at that. Or Ronald Reagan,


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lachi on March 03, 2017, 06:36:33 PM
Nate Silver has created a tracker for these polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 03, 2017, 06:48:27 PM
Nate Silver has created a tracker for these polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Currently, it is aggregated at 49.9% Disapprove & 43.7% Approve.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on March 03, 2017, 11:47:05 PM
He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

I don't think this works. The public blames the President and the party of the President for everything no matter who controls Congress, barring very unusual circumstances like a government shutdown. It just hasn't been anywhere near long enough for conservatives to start losing faith yet. Wait until the fall or next year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdowns_of_1995%E2%80%931996

Still, while the Republican base will stand by him, I suspect most will indeed blame Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2017, 06:35:57 AM
He can hold over his base for so long with media attacks and nativist immigration rhetoric before they get restless. I have read about a factory in IN shutting down and jobs shipped to Mexico and nothing from Trump and coal plant closing in OH/AZ. At some point parts of his base will realize he is not delivering for them.

The news sites that cater to his base and Fox will likely just blame liberals for nothing happening. They won't understand that Republicans control Congress as well and can do what they want so they can pull the wool far over their eyes.

I don't think this works. The public blames the President and the party of the President for everything no matter who controls Congress, barring very unusual circumstances like a government shutdown. It just hasn't been anywhere near long enough for conservatives to start losing faith yet. Wait until the fall or next year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdowns_of_1995%E2%80%931996

Still, while the Republican base will stand by him, I suspect most will indeed blame Trump.

True. It takes grave failure of results or severe turpitude to cut into support from the partisan base. The two biggest failures of incumbent Presidents in re-election bids in the last century (Hoover and Carter) had nothing to do with moral turpitude. (If you want to consider Taft, it's that someone who had been a fine President took the Republican base from him).

Most Presidents must start by doing something unpopular but necessary, like reforming a tax code, withdrawing from an unpopular war in a way that leaves some hurt feelings for many Americans, showing mercy to social pariahs, firing a popular General who has Caesar-like tendencies, imposing new or raising existing taxes, taking some military action that poses some risks, or enforcing a widely-opposed ruling of the Supreme Court. Truly-effective Presidents make it work and make well known that such is inevitable or even good. Not-so-good Presidents put such decisions off and allow the consequences to fester, make sure that special interests get to profiteer from the decision at the expense of everyone else, find pariahs to treat badly, or try to put the blame on unpopular people.

At this point I expect President Trump to go down to a Carter-like or Hoover-like defeat in 2020. Note well: he is not Herbert Hoover and he is not Jimmy Carter. Hoover got elected on religious bigotry  (anti-Catholic sentiment) of which  he wisely stayed clear and on status quo in the American economy.  Unfortunately for Hoover the economy melted down and he had no idea of how to fix it. Carter barely got elected against an inept campaigner (does that sound familiar?) only to lose to someone more resolute and convincing the next time... but he had no idea of how to deal with cost-push inflation, which then would have been to raise taxes to reduce conspicuous consumption  and give tax breaks to investors. (Reagan did not raise taxes on consumption, but left that to the states who raised sales taxes; he did cut taxes for investors).

I can't predict what will take President Trump down. Maybe he will let the Federal Reserve run the economy and avoid a 1929-style or 2007-style meltdown (the two began much the same). Maybe he will offend so many sensibilities (not to say that the opposing sensibilities don't overlap).  Maybe he will misjudge the intentions of a foreign power or sponsor regime change that turns a shaky ally into a vituperating enemy -- think of Iran with Carter as President. Visible cronyism, corruption, and scapegoating will get unpopular fast. His capricious handling of "Dreamers" makes me wonder if I am next. Does America have a Gulag in its future?

The President's slogan "Make America Great Again" is much of his political capital. Things will have to go very well for him -- well enough for white Christians to accept the restoration of what many Americans consider unthinkable today. Such will depend upon rapacious plutocrats and brutal managers getting what they want, basically a return to the norms of the Gilded Age, and such giving Americans more pay to support conspicuous consumption on an unprecedented level. Such will fail. First, economic successes of the Gilded Age depended upon basic, innovative technologies that investors could exploit cheaply or simply even if on a gigantic scale. Second, conspicuous consumption is impossible where people are shoehorned into tiny apartments as is the norm in some Northeastern cities and much of California (and those places are where the high-paying jobs are). Third, elite indulgence in the presence of widespread hardship hardly supports social concord. Fourth, it all implies degradation of cultural, spiritual, and moral life while destroying the environment.

The technology and widespread prosperity that Americans enjoy by contrast to the Gilded Age make Trump's ideal of a return to the political and economic norms of the Gilded Age with simply higher productivity and higher technology cannot work.  If "greatness" implies ultra-cheap labor and WASP supremacy, then I would be offended. I have empathy, something inconsistent with a harsh social order or a dictatorial government.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 04, 2017, 01:26:53 PM
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

3/4 update:
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

Def no speech bounce... but no drop from Sessions either, yet.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 04, 2017, 01:48:06 PM
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

3/4 update:
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

Def no speech bounce... but no drop from Sessions either, yet.

Evidence that he is preaching to the choir.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 04, 2017, 05:08:41 PM
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

It doesn't seem like his congressional address gave him much of a bounce.

3/4 update:
Gallup:

43% (nc)
51% (nc)

Def no speech bounce... but no drop from Sessions either, yet.

Evidence that he is preaching to the choir.

Or that everyone is. My guess is that everyone is just preaching to the choir. I could well be that Trump is stuck between 39 and 45 (slightly unpopular), much like he was during the election. The only way he gets into the 45-50 range is if we all the sudden have some YUGGE economic miracle. The only way he gets to be truly popular by any reasonable imagination is that he gets his chance to become America's Blue Line the way W did between 9/11 and there all the sudden being thousands of dead soldiers when barely 100 died in the actual "war"  and there being hundreds of thousands of dead civilians.

The only way he becomes unpopular enough to be easy to beat or easy to contain is that we have recession.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 04, 2017, 07:52:03 PM
On the economy: it is still the Obama economy, or the Federal Reserve Bank really manages it.

President Trump has yet to force economic reforms likely to inflict pain on the masses so that the super-rich can get even more -- like a national "Right-to-Work" (for much less, as union officials call it), abolition of the minimum wage laws, tax shifts, and destruction of the welfare system.  He has yet to succeed at forming an economic bubble analogous to the real estate mess of fifteen years ago.

We can pay more attention to approval than to favorability. Approval generally means recognition of the merits or demerits of official performance. It is possible to like someone who is hurting one, as in certain stages of an abusive relationship.  But that usually sours fast.

What is telling? New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut* residents likely know Donald Trump the person far better than any other Americans. If his approval rating in New York state is 29%,  and this is significantly lower than is normal for Republican Presidents in New York, then we can only imagine what direction his support will take in such states as Georgia*, Minnesota*, Ohio*, and Wisconsin* and will take over time. 

*states for which I have no polling data.

Can anyone come up with polling data for President Trump in New Jersey and New York from the first term of President George W. Bush? 
Yeah but Dem Presidential Candidates have carried NY since the 1988 Presidential Election. Also Connecticut and New Jersey have been carried by Dem Presidential Candidates since the 1992 Presidential Election. I do agree though New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut Residents know of Trump pretty well.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 05, 2017, 01:17:00 PM
Gallup: 43(nc)/50(-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2017, 07:28:58 AM
FL (University of North Florida, 973 RV):

44% approve
51% disapprove

Link (http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/March_6,_2017_-_New_UNF_Poll_Shows_Senator_Bill_Nelson_Leading_Governor_Rick_Scott__in_2018_Senate_Election.aspx)

US (CNN, 1.025 adults):

45% approve
52% disapprove

Link (http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/06/politics/trump-approval-rating-russia-poll)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 06, 2017, 07:29:25 AM
CNN/ORC, 1,025 adult Americans, March 1-4, 2017
Job Approval
45(+1)
52(-1)

men: +5
women: -18
white: +7
non-white: -35

white / no college: +30
white / college degree: -20



Favorability            Donald Trump              Mike Pence
March 1-4, 2017            45%/53%          47%/37%
January 12-15, 2017     44%/53%           40%/37%
November 17-20, 2016   47%/50%          43%/38%
October 20-23, 2016      36%/61%              38%/30%

edition.cnn.com/2017/03/06/politics/trump-approval-rating-russia-poll/index.html
i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/03/05/rel4a.-.trump,.russia.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on March 06, 2017, 07:32:15 AM
That Whites with a college degree number though.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 06, 2017, 08:42:38 AM
FL (University of North Florida, 973 RV):

44% approve
51% disapprove

Link (http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/March_6,_2017_-_New_UNF_Poll_Shows_Senator_Bill_Nelson_Leading_Governor_Rick_Scott__in_2018_Senate_Election.aspx)

US (CNN, 1.025 adults):

45% approve
52% disapprove

Link (http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/06/politics/trump-approval-rating-russia-poll)

Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 06, 2017, 10:01:02 AM
Rasmussen 3/1 - 3/5, 1500 LV   

52(-1)/48(+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 06, 2017, 01:03:14 PM
Gallup, 1,500 A:
 
44(+1)/50(-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 06, 2017, 01:09:49 PM
Monmouth:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/838812631788060673


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 06, 2017, 01:16:36 PM
It seems like his approval is on a bit of an upswing, for whatever reason.  Still, I find it striking that 41% strongly disapprove of him, according to the CNN poll.  He must have the lowest ceiling of any president since polling began.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 06, 2017, 01:36:12 PM
Monmouth:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/838812631788060673

Trump actually does worse in swing/close counties than he does nationwide 41/46.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 06, 2017, 01:58:03 PM

The most interesting part is
Quote
The past week saw significant swings in the headlines, going from the president's address to Congress, to the attorney general's problems, to allegations that the Obama administration spied on Trump. The poll saw little movement in public opinion as these stories developed. In interviews conducted Thursday and Friday, Trump earned a 41% approve and 47% disapprove rating. In Saturday and Sunday interviews - after Trump's tweet storm about the spying accusations - the president got a 44% approve and 46% disapprove rating. These minor differences are not statistically significant.

It is not statistically significant, but stil astonishing :)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 06, 2017, 04:38:04 PM
Here’s the Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_030617/

It’s 43/46% among adults and 44/46% among registered voters.

men: +9
women: -17
whites: +20
non-whites: -50
income less than $50k: -11
income $50-100k: +6
income over $100k: -4


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 06, 2017, 05:25:25 PM
Florida:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/floridians-mostly-feeling-optimistic-heading-age-trump


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 06, 2017, 06:07:04 PM
IBD/TIPP   2/24 - 3/4, 909 A

41(-1)/53(+5) compared to 1/27 - 2/2

investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 06, 2017, 06:07:47 PM
IBD/TIPP   2/24 - 3/4, 909 A

41(-1)/53(+5) compared to 1/27 - 2/2

investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/

That's a big swing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 06, 2017, 06:28:10 PM
Florida:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/floridians-mostly-feeling-optimistic-heading-age-trump

This is from Florida Chamber Political Institute, FYI.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 07, 2017, 02:31:38 AM
Here's a paragraph about the IBD/TIPP poll I thought was note-worthy:

Quote
The poll was largely completed before Trump's well-received address to Congress last Tuesday. But the speech clearly had a positive impact on the public's view of the president. Of the 653 surveyed before the speech, just 39.5% approved of the job he is doing. Of the 256 polled after the speech, his approval rating climbed to 46.1% — a 6.6 point bump. His disapproval numbers went from 54.5% before to 47.5% after.

It's kind of bizarre that they detected a drastic change in his popularity after the speech, since we didn't see that in any other poll.  Hmm...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 07, 2017, 07:24:32 AM
Florida:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/floridians-mostly-feeling-optimistic-heading-age-trump

This is from Florida Chamber Political Institute, FYI.

So for the first time we have a poll that must be rejected because it comes from a union, trade association, political campaign, or advocacy group.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on March 07, 2017, 08:04:08 AM
http://wlns.com/2017/03/06/skubick-poll-shows-trump-support-base-eroding-in-michigan/

Quote
Trump Numbers

(1) 43 percent lost confidence
(2) 33 percent confidence up
(3) 6 percent undecided

Mr. Trump eked out a narrow victory by attracting more men, whites and independent voters than the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

But those numbers have changed.

Trump Numbers

(1) Independents: 50 percent less confident
(2) Whites: 45 percent less confident
(3) Men: 48 percent less confident


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 07, 2017, 09:45:14 AM
Rasmussen 3/2 - 3/6, 1500 LV  

51(-1)/49(+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 07, 2017, 09:53:20 AM
http://wlns.com/2017/03/06/skubick-poll-shows-trump-support-base-eroding-in-michigan/

Quote
Trump Numbers

(1) 43 percent lost confidence
(2) 33 percent confidence up
(3) 6 percent undecided

Mr. Trump eked out a narrow victory by attracting more men, whites and independent voters than the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

But those numbers have changed.

Trump Numbers

(1) Independents: 50 percent less confident
(2) Whites: 45 percent less confident
(3) Men: 48 percent less confident
Not shocking, he barely won the state an he won solely around TPP so the fact he is running more on his Wall an ban was going to lose Michigan the first.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 07, 2017, 11:06:39 AM
This is more than ordinary loss of support. This does not translate into polling, but all in all I expect people to scratch their heads at 9PM EST on November 2, 2020 as Michigan is a quick call for the Democratic nominee for President and wonder how Donald Trump could have won the state in 2016.

I doubt that the discriminatory behavior against Muslim travelers does well for President Trump.  Yes, Dearborn is a no-go zone -- if you are a drunk, addict, pimp, or prostitute wandering in from Detroit.  I can live with that sort of 'no-go zone'.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jdk on March 07, 2017, 11:22:04 AM

Quote
Trump Numbers

(1) 43 percent lost confidence
(2) 33 percent confidence up
(3) 6 percent undecided

Mr. Trump eked out a narrow victory by attracting more men, whites and independent voters than the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

But those numbers have changed.

Trump Numbers

(1) Independents: 50 percent less confident
(2) Whites: 45 percent less confident
(3) Men: 48 percent less confident
Not shocking, he barely won the state an he won solely around TPP so the fact he is running more on his Wall an ban was going to lose Michigan the first.
I also wonder how much of an impact the Betsy Devos appointment and the Great Lakes program cuts has to do with it


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2017, 12:20:21 PM
Georgia 6 (Trafalgar Group):

52% approve
41% disapprove

http://us13.campaign-archive2.com/?u=99839c1f5b2cbb6320408fcb8&id=7962184199&e=32e0d75bb8

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2016, predicting the Trump wins in PA etc.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 07, 2017, 01:10:12 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 43% (-1)
Disapprove: 51% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 07, 2017, 02:14:51 PM
Georgia 6 (Trafalgar Group):

52% approve
41% disapprove

http://us13.campaign-archive2.com/?u=99839c1f5b2cbb6320408fcb8&id=7962184199&e=32e0d75bb8

Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2016, predicting the Trump wins in PA etc.

Probably a good poll of the Sixth District. Not to be confused with Georgia itself.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2017, 02:35:52 PM
2 new national polls, showing totally opposite results:

Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2436)

41% approve
52% disapprove

USAToday/Suffolk (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/07/usa-today-poll-tweets-and-temperament-tripping-up-president-trump/98807880/)

47% approve
44% disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2017, 02:46:58 PM
Here's another recent poll from Trafalgar Group (about several SC issues, which had Trump's approval buried in it as well) and which was the most accurate pollster in 2016:

South Carolina (Trafalgar Group, Feb.27-March 2)

58% approve
35% disapprove

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2Hwy_ovLLLvYnotWjVIMzZKd0U/view


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on March 07, 2017, 02:52:35 PM
Here's another recent poll from Trafalgar Group (about several SC issues, which had Trump's approval buried in it as well) and which was the most accurate pollster in 2016:

South Carolina (Trafalgar Group, Feb.27-March 2)

58% approve
35% disapprove

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2Hwy_ovLLLvYnotWjVIMzZKd0U/view

lolwut. +23 approve?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2017, 03:00:13 PM
NC (HPU):

37% approve
54% disapprove

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/51memoA.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 07, 2017, 03:01:29 PM
Quote
Here's another recent poll from Trafalgar Group (about several SC issues, which had Trump's approval buried in it as well) and which was the most accurate pollster in 2016:

South Carolina (Trafalgar Group, Feb.27-March 2)

58% approve
35% disapprove

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2Hwy_ovLLLvYnotWjVIMzZKd0U/view

We should just ignore anything from the Awfulgar Group.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 07, 2017, 04:39:48 PM
Ipsos, March 2-6, 1,679A

48(+2)/46(-2)

Trump's best numbers since the inauguration.
polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 08, 2017, 09:57:35 AM
Rasmussen 3/2 - 3/6, 1500 LV  

51(-1)/49(+1)

Rasmussen 3/3 - 3/7, 1500 LV  

49(-2)/51(+2)

Strongly:
35(-2)/42(+4)

Wiretapping-allegations fire back? But Rasmussen is shaky. It'll be interesting to look at today's Gallup.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2017, 10:38:19 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2017, 10:42:11 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Mar. 1-5:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/surveymonkey-27194
https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2017/03/07/trumps-speech-approval-uptick-opinion-headwinds/

approve 48%
disapprove 51%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 08, 2017, 10:56:32 AM
Change
Morning Consult, MAR. 2-6 compared to FEB. 24-26:
approve     50(-)
disapprove 45(-)

SurveyMonkey, MAR. 1-5 compared to FEB. 24-MAR 2:
approve     48% (+3)
disapprove 51% (-3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 08, 2017, 01:17:46 PM
Gallup

Approve 42% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 08, 2017, 01:24:00 PM
Gallup

Approve 42% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+2)
The Twitter meltdown kicking in


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 08, 2017, 01:45:38 PM
Gallup seems very consistent.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 08, 2017, 03:06:48 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


This poll is 81% white, since when was the electorate 81% white?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 08, 2017, 03:23:54 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


This poll is 81% white, since when was the electorate 81% white?
It likely includes White Hispanics.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2017, 03:28:05 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


This poll is 81% white, since when was the electorate 81% white?
It likely includes White Hispanics.

That’s right.  The poll is:

non-Hispanic white 72%
black 13%
Hispanic 9%
other 6%

The “white” in the crosstabs includes Hispanic whites though, which is why it comes out to 81%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 08, 2017, 03:34:08 PM
YouGov,   3/6 - 3/7,   1500 A

42(+1)
49(-1) compared to 2/25-3/1

Male:     46/47
Female: 38/51

White:       48/45
Black:       19/66
Hispanics: 34/52
Other:       28/55

R:  81/16
I:   40/44
D:  16/79

YouGov,   3/6 - 3/7,   1359 RV

44(-1)
50(-1) compared to 2/25-3/1


https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9deo3n58va/econTabReport.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 09, 2017, 09:51:38 AM
Rasmussen 3/3 - 3/7, 1500 LV  

49(-2)/51(+2)

Strongly:
35(-2)/42(+4)

Wiretapping-allegations fire back? But Rasmussen is shaky. It'll be interesting to look at today's Gallup.

Rasmussen 3/4 - 3/8, 1500 LV  

49(-)/51(-)

Strongly:
33(-2)/41(-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 09, 2017, 01:17:39 PM
Gallup, 3/6 - 3/8   1500 A

Approve      41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (--)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 09, 2017, 04:01:32 PM
I wonder if the entirety of this presidency will be like this:

Trump says or does something incredibly stupid. Polls drop for a week or so. Trump recovers in the polls. Trump says or does something incredibly stupid again.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on March 09, 2017, 04:19:06 PM
I wonder if the entirety of this presidency will be like this:

Trump says or does something incredibly stupid. Polls drop for a week or so. Trump recovers in the polls. Trump says or does something incredibly stupid again.

Exactly like 2016.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2017, 05:07:41 PM
I wonder if the entirety of this presidency will be like this:

Trump says or does something incredibly stupid. Polls drop for a week or so. Trump recovers in the polls. Trump says or does something incredibly stupid again.

Exactly like 2016.

Until the economy goes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 10, 2017, 09:43:36 AM
Rasmussen 3/5 - 3/9, 1500 LV  

Approve      48%(-1)
Disapprove 52%(+1)

Strongly:
Approve      32%(-1)
Disapprove 43%(+2)

Obama-effect...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 10, 2017, 11:52:20 AM
Rasmussen 3/5 - 3/9, 1500 LV  

Approve      48%(-1)
Disapprove 52%(+1)

Strongly:
Approve      32%(-1)
Disapprove 43%(+2)

Obama-effect...

It just keeps getting worse.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 10, 2017, 01:02:41 PM
Gallup, 3/7 - 3/9   1500 A

Approve      42% (+1)
Disapprove 52%  (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 10, 2017, 03:33:47 PM
Ipsos, 3/7 - 3/9, compared to 2/28-3/4   

1629 A http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
Approve      49% (+4)
Disapprove 45%  (-3)

1394 RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1
Approve      51% (+4)
Disapprove 45%  (-3)

482 LV&RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1,LIKELY:1
Approve      50% (+3)
Disapprove 46%  (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 10, 2017, 03:37:43 PM
lol...Reuters goes positive while Rassmussen goes negative. WTF

Reuters has been a right-wing organ for a long time.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 10, 2017, 04:06:39 PM
SurveyMonkey, 3/3 - 3/9, compared to 2/24-3/2    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpRnRGOFFaWkREN0k/view

12257 A
Approve      47% (+2)
Disapprove 52%  (-2)

8947 RV
Approve      49% (+2)
Disapprove 50%  (-3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 10, 2017, 09:45:06 PM
A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 11, 2017, 12:40:28 AM
A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.
They're active particapants, though.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 11, 2017, 01:10:22 AM
A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.

nah, they're getting exactly what they wanted (a white nationalist administration)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 11, 2017, 01:31:59 PM
Gallup, 3/7 - 3/9   1500 A

Approve      42% (+1)
Disapprove 52%  (-1)


Gallup, 3/8- 3/10   1500 A

Approve      44% (+2)
Disapprove  49% ( -3)


Trump's best numbers since January (Gallup).


A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.

nah, they're getting exactly what they wanted (a white nationalist administration)
Ahh, sort of!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 11, 2017, 02:08:44 PM
Gallup, 3/7 - 3/9   1500 A

Approve      42% (+1)
Disapprove 52%  (-1)


Gallup, 3/8- 3/10   1500 A

Approve      44% (+2)
Disapprove  49% ( -3)


Trump's best numbers since January (Gallup).


A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.

nah, they're getting exactly what they wanted (a white nationalist administration)
Ahh, sort of!
Not a surprise his approval goes up in tracking polls whenever he has a week were he shuts up.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 11, 2017, 02:18:48 PM
I think it's quite possible he'll have a net positive rating sooner or later, but I also believe his ceiling is historically low for an incumbent president.  He might not ever have more than 55% or so of Americans on his side, unless something cataclysmic happens, like a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 11, 2017, 02:25:18 PM
I think it's quite possible he'll have a net positive rating sooner or later, but I also believe his ceiling is historically low for an incumbent president.  He might not ever have more than 55% or so of Americans on his side, unless something cataclysmic happens, like a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11.

Excluding the "honeymoon period" during his first six months and the "riding off into the sunset" period during his final month or so in office, wasn't the same true of Obama?  Sure, there were a few individual polls where he was above 55%, but when else was the polling average for him higher than that, excluding the very beginning and the very end?  Trump of course isn't getting the same kind of early honeymoon period that Obama got, but I think if he follows the Obama trajectory from the middle of his first year onwards, he'd be very happy with that.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: CapoteMonster on March 11, 2017, 04:31:11 PM
I think it's quite possible he'll have a net positive rating sooner or later, but I also believe his ceiling is historically low for an incumbent president.  He might not ever have more than 55% or so of Americans on his side, unless something cataclysmic happens, like a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11.

Excluding the "honeymoon period" during his first six months and the "riding off into the sunset" period during his final month or so in office, wasn't the same true of Obama?  Sure, there were a few individual polls where he was above 55%, but when else was the polling average for him higher than that, excluding the very beginning and the very end?  Trump of course isn't getting the same kind of early honeymoon period that Obama got, but I think if he follows the Obama trajectory from the middle of his first year onwards, he'd be very happy with that.


He was around 55% for pretty much all of 2009 and around his second inauguration, but your pretty much right in that people were split on Obama for most of his presidency.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jdk on March 11, 2017, 06:53:34 PM
Gallup, 3/7 - 3/9   1500 A

Approve      42% (+1)
Disapprove 52%  (-1)


Gallup, 3/8- 3/10   1500 A

Approve      44% (+2)
Disapprove  49% ( -3)


Trump's best numbers since January (Gallup).


A lot of Americans are still getting bamboozled.

nah, they're getting exactly what they wanted (a white nationalist administration)
Ahh, sort of!
Not a surprise his approval goes up in tracking polls whenever he has a week were he shuts up.
It is pretty sad where the bar he has set for himself is so low all he has to do is not completely embarrass himself for a couple days and his approval rating goes up, and he still can't behave long enough to even reach 45%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 12, 2017, 12:50:38 PM
Gallup, 3/8- 3/10   1500 A

Approve      44% (+2)
Disapprove  49% ( -3)


Trump's best numbers since January (Gallup).


Gallup, 3/9- 3/11   1500 A

Approve      45% (+1)
Disapprove  49% (---)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 12, 2017, 06:02:47 PM
So, when Trump keeps his mouth shut for an extended period of time, his approvals go up, but when he says something stupid, it goes down?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 12, 2017, 06:03:38 PM
So, when Trump keeps his mouth shut for an extended period of time, his approvals go up, but when he says something stupid, it goes down?

Yeah, it's been that way since the very beginning, as far as I can tell.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on March 13, 2017, 05:41:41 AM
So, when Trump keeps his mouth shut for an extended period of time, his approvals go up, but when he says something stupid, it goes down?

Yeah, it's been that way since the very beginning, as far as I can tell.

Someone noted on CNN I believe a few months ago that they believe the President "polls bad". So as in the campaign, perhaps we should take any polls, good or bad, with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 13, 2017, 08:15:30 AM
So, when Trump keeps his mouth shut for an extended period of time, his approvals go up, but when he says something stupid, it goes down?

Yeah, it's been that way since the very beginning, as far as I can tell.

Someone noted on CNN I believe a few months ago that they believe the President "polls bad". So as in the campaign, perhaps we should take any polls, good or bad, with a grain of salt.

No poll is perfect. Note the 'margin of error'. The definitive poll is the election.

Donald Trump masterfully played desperation and resentments. Other pols had no solution for the end of the age in which industrial toil was adequate for living a good life. We liberals never had a problem with industrial workers getting paid well for doing jobs that many of us could never have done except at gunpoint. People deserve to be paid well for doing those jobs. But will economic reality comply?

The 'Establishment' Right, the Chamber of Commerce types who believe that a healthy economy that fosters corporate profits will create a just order, turned to importing instead of manufacturing about 35 years ago to undercut manufacturing. So we have plenty of stuff made in foreign sweatshops instead of in America. But even without Big Business becoming importers instead of manufacturers we would still have the problem of saturation of manufactured needs.  We have gone from having to buy to get thoroughly-new stuff to replace stuff as it wears out, becomes dowdy, or becomes technologically obsolete. 

Are there still people using VHS or cassette tapes? Still watching CRT televisions? Those who do might get to enjoy a 1990s lifestyle cheaply. If one is poor in America one might do that. I would encourage people just starting out in life to do so while they amass some savings. You can't eat style.

Liberals have traditionally been good at standing with labor unions as the best means for achieving fair pay and good working conditions. Big Business hates unions, preferring to use fear as a tool of management. People scared of hunger might take a pay cut just to hold a job when jobs are scarce -- and of course keep jobs scarce. The only difference between modern capitalists or executives on the one side and feudal princes or antebellum planters is that capitalists and executives can't get away with what feudal prices and antebellum planters used to get away with. If you wonder how the antebellum planters dealt with the reality of slavery with its exploitation and dehumanization of slaves, then historical records show that those exploitative, dehumanizing slave-masters saw themselves as benefactors to 'their (and in a very possessive sense of the pronoun)' slaves and could not imagine how non-slave-holding Northerners who had small farms or small businesses could be so dense as to not see a 'reality' so self-evident to the slave owners. 

Yes, I see the economic elites getting away with pathological narcissism and even sociopathic behavior that few of us could get away with. As someone who has been humbled in cr@ppy jobs in which subordination and deference are necessary traits of survival, I cannot escape resentment of people who treat others badly for personal gain. 

But we liberals cannot create jobs unless we can promise big infrastructure projects like Boston's  Big Dig or what has become the Pat Tillman Bridge on what will eventually be Interstate 11 or 13 connecting Las Vegas and Phoenix. Donald Trump has promised some big infrastructure projects, but those imply crony capitalism and 'looter' privatization. Giving public water projects to private monopolists and transforming current freeways into toll roads might not go over so well.

Donald Trump played the populist card that nobody else dared play, but he turned it in for the  profits-first ideology of Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, and the other corporate interests which took over the Establishment while playing up bigotry that gentlemen now avoid. Now we see what we have. Donald Trump isn't going to convince liberals to give up their values even if he gets good economic results. He's going to need to create a vibrant economy, and the most that he can offer is another speculative boom... as if people who don't remember the housing boom of the Double-Zero decade want a repeat of the corrupt boom and the inevitable bust.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 13, 2017, 09:45:41 AM
Rasmussen 3/5 - 3/9, 1500 LV  

Approve      48%(-1)
Disapprove 52%(+1)

Strongly:
Approve      32%(-1)
Disapprove 43%(+2)

Obama-effect...

Rasmussen 38 - 3/12, 1500 LV  

Approve      47% ( -1)
Disapprove  53% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      31% (-1)
Disapprove  42% (-1)

Rasmussen shows -6 vs Gallup -4 :D


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 13, 2017, 10:05:48 AM
Rasmussen 3/5 - 3/9, 1500 LV  

Approve      48%(-1)
Disapprove 52%(+1)

Strongly:
Approve      32%(-1)
Disapprove 43%(+2)

Obama-effect...

Rasmussen 38 - 3/12, 1500 LV  

Approve      47% ( -1)
Disapprove  53% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      31% (-1)
Disapprove  42% (-1)

Rasmussen shows -6 vs Gallup -4 :D
Crazy theory could he start doing worse in Rasmussen because consertives are more pissed over the health care bill?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 13, 2017, 10:07:57 AM
Crazy theory could he start doing worse in Rasmussen because consertives are more pissed over the health care bill?

I think those who think the bill isn't conservative enough are so extreme that there just aren't that many people who think that way. We're talking Tea Party stuff here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 13, 2017, 10:17:56 AM
Rasmussen 3/5 - 3/9, 1500 LV  

Approve      48%(-1)
Disapprove 52%(+1)

Strongly:
Approve      32%(-1)
Disapprove 43%(+2)

Obama-effect...

Rasmussen 38 - 3/12, 1500 LV  

Approve      47% ( -1)
Disapprove  53% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      31% (-1)
Disapprove  42% (-1)

Rasmussen shows -6 vs Gallup -4 :D
Crazy theory could he start doing worse in Rasmussen because consertives are more pissed over the health care bill?

Who knows -- we may be seeing the start of some splits among 'conservatives' on some key issues. 'Conservatives' toed the line quickly around the new President.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 13, 2017, 10:19:30 AM
Or it's just noise and Rasmussen isn't a great pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 13, 2017, 12:22:19 PM
Trump crashes back down to 42/51 in Gallup.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 13, 2017, 01:04:28 PM
Gallup, 3/9- 3/11   1500 A

Approve      45% (+1)
Disapprove  49% (---)


Gallup, 3/10- 3/12   1500 A

Approve      42% (-3)
Disapprove  51% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 13, 2017, 02:37:13 PM
At this point I project that as an average campaigner for re-election he would lose about 52-48 against the average challenger even if the economy doesn't go into the tank, no scandal erupts, and no military or diplomatic calamity happens.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 14, 2017, 09:17:07 AM
Rasmussen 3/8 - 3/12, 1500 LV  

Approve      47% ( -1)
Disapprove  53% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      31% (-1)
Disapprove  42% (-1)

Rasmussen shows -6 vs Gallup -4 :D

Rasmussen 3/9 - 3/13, 1500 LV  

Approve      46% (-1)
Disapprove  53% (--)

Strongly:
Approve      30% (-1)
Disapprove  43% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 14, 2017, 09:31:58 AM
 New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district) (http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 14, 2017, 09:40:34 AM
New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district) (http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.

Terribly unflattering. If this district expresses a general shift of 5% the vote in Wisconsin, then a state that went for him by less than 1% would be a bare loss for him if nothing really changes before 2020. Should the economy tank or the American good fortune (having Obama as President might have made that possible for eight years) of not having military or diplomatic calamities come to an abrupt and shocking end, then the President could be facing a landslide loss in a re-election bid.

This and extant polls of Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that if the 2016 election were held again, Trump would lose.  Support for the rest of the Trump agenda also looks weak even in this district.

Paul Ryan looks as if he would squeak by in a re-election bid. But that bodes ill for many other incumbent Republicans in the House.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 14, 2017, 09:47:31 AM
New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district) (http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
It's a Democratic Internal, for an anti-Ryan PAC.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 14, 2017, 09:51:51 AM
New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district) (http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
Trump got 52%.
MOE of this poll is about 4%
PPP was AWFUL during the election. For instance they had Clinton +7 in WI...
It is not even a public poll.

Just saying.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 14, 2017, 10:08:25 AM
New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district) (http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
It's a Democratic Internal, for an anti-Ryan PAC.

Even if so it says some things. If things were all peachy and rosy for House Republicans, then Donald Trump and Paul Ryan would have something like 60% approval or favorability in that district.

Some other questions:

Q5 Would you support or oppose an independent investigation into Russia’s involvement in the
2016 Presidential election?

(Support 50%, oppose 40%)

Q6 Do you support or oppose taking away funding for essential healthcare services like birth
control and cancer screenings at Planned Parenthood health centers in Racine, Kenosha,
and Delevan?

(Support 37%, oppose 55%)

Q7 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan and the Republicans’ new health care bill, which would
cause millions to lose their health insurance?

(Support 37%, oppose 46%)


Q8 What comes closest to your view of what should happen with Medicare and Social Security: do you think we should protect and strengthen them, do you think we should expand them, or do you think we should cut them?

(Protect and strengthen 77%, expand 11%, cut 8%)

Q9 Some in Congress have proposed selling off national public lands, like national forests,
national monuments, and wildlife refuges. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

(Support 18%, oppose 77%)

Q10 The Trump Administration is proposing budget cuts to the Department of Interior and a hiring freeze, which could mean fewer park rangers, fewer wildland firefighters, limited wildlife
monitoring, and a limited ability to address the backlog of maintenance needs in America’s
National Parks.  Do you support or oppose these budget cuts?

(Support 35%, oppose 55%)

Q11 The Trump Administration is proposing a 97% decrease in money to clean up the Great
Lakes. Do you support or oppose these budget cuts?

(Support 25%, oppose 62%)

Q12 President Trump just ordered the EPA to rescind clean water rules, a move that would
reduce protections for 60% of the nation’s waters from toxic pollution and put the drinking
water of 117 million people at risk.  Do you support or oppose this?

(Support 28%, oppose 60%)

(Geographic reality on Q11: Paul Ryan's WI-01 lies on the shore of Lake Michigan).

In these questions we already see how Democrats can frame the 2018 midterm and 2020 general election. Speakers of the House rarely get defeated in re-election bids, and Paul Ryan is unlikely to be in danger of losing his House seat, but they can easily become House Minority Leaders when things go bad for their Party. Sure, this might be an internal poll by a Democratic group... but don't be surprised if the next poll of Wisconsin shows Donald Trump with something like a 40% approval rating.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 14, 2017, 10:33:52 AM
New PPP poll of WI-01 (Paul Ryan's district) (http://www.wispolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170313PPP.pdf):

Trump:

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Ryan:

49% Favorable
44% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 10%.
Trump got 52%.
MOE of this poll is about 4%
PPP was AWFUL during the election. For instance they had Clinton +7 in WI...
It is not even a public poll.

Just saying.

Hillary Clinton got only 39% of the vote in this district. That is a 12% margin. Paul Ryan will probably win this district in 2018 despite standing for some unpopular measure; that is how it is with someone who wields power in the House. After all, he might be good for getting a desirable highway or public-transportation project passed in his district under a Democratic administration in 2021 or so.

PPP missed the sudden swing for Demagogue Don; it quit polling on Wisconsin rather early. But current polls seem to be showing Americans just about everywhere recognizing his agenda (just create more profit as the collection of rent, and dismantle nearly 90 years of social progress to resuscitate 'dirty' industry) as a non-solution to their personal distress.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 14, 2017, 12:34:51 PM
Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 14, 2017, 12:39:54 PM
Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.
0.0


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 14, 2017, 01:03:39 PM
Uh oh


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 14, 2017, 01:07:23 PM
Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health Trumpcare is taking a toll on his numbers.

FTFY. Let's drive it home. ;)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 14, 2017, 01:23:16 PM
Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.

People are starting to notice they're getting screwed by Trump, huh?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on March 14, 2017, 01:24:32 PM
Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.

Has he been under 40 on Gallup before? I don't recall but at a glance only see him at 40. Anyway, YUGE two-day shift given that Gallup is a three-day tracking poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 14, 2017, 01:28:54 PM
Trump continues to crash big league in Gallup. Down to 39/55 today. I suppose you could conclude that health care is taking a toll on his numbers.

Has he been under 40 on Gallup before? I don't recall but at a glance only see him at 40.

He was at 38% on 2/16.

This was one day after Andy Puzder withdrew as Labor Secretary nominee, three days after the resignation of Michael Flynn and seven days after the Ninth Circuit upheld Washington v. Trump.

This is different now, however. Voters could be personally affected by government policy in a negative manner and everybody knows it. Hence it's the sharpest drop in a two-day time span so far.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 14, 2017, 04:15:50 PM
Gallup, 3/10- 3/12   1500 A

Approve      42% (-3)
Disapprove  51% (+2)


Gallup, 3/11- 3/13   1500 A

Approve      39% (-3)
Disapprove  55% (+4)

Wow! Trump's second worst numbers.
As I said Trump won't win without Universal Healthcare/fix Obamacare.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 14, 2017, 04:36:57 PM
Ipsos, 3/7 - 3/9, compared to 2/28-3/4   

1629 A http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
Approve      49% (+4)
Disapprove 45%  (-3)

1394 RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1
Approve      51% (+4)
Disapprove 45%  (-3)

482 LV&RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1,LIKELY:1
Approve      50% (+3)
Disapprove 46%  (-2)


Ipsos, 3/9 - 3/13, compared to 3/7 - 3/9   

1747 A http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
Approve      47% (-2)
Disapprove  48% (+3)

1492 RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1
Approve      49% (-2)
Disapprove  48% (+3)

535 LV&RV http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/PD1:1,LIKELY:1
Approve      48% (-2)
Disapprove  51% (+5)


This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.
The numbers themselves are probably an outlier. The negative trend is not.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 14, 2017, 06:58:12 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.

Trump is at 22% approval with Hispanic according to Gallup which came out with a breakdown of Trumps approval numbers by demographic group in the past day or two.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on March 14, 2017, 07:12:38 PM
This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.

Middle single digits.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 14, 2017, 10:37:52 PM
This is probably just an outlier just like the 45-49 number earlier this week was. Real number is probably aound net negative high single digits.

Middle single digits.

PPP hasn't polled approval ratings of rattlesnakes yet.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 15, 2017, 08:09:46 AM
A legit PPP national poll of registered voters: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_31517.pdf

Approve 43% (-2)
Disapprove 50% (+2)

The AHCA is anything but popular as well, polling at 24/49.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 15, 2017, 08:27:14 AM
The AHCA is anything but popular as well, polling at 24/49.

Tom Cotton was right... if AHCA passes like that the GOP is going to lose the House.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 15, 2017, 09:27:33 AM
The AHCA is anything but popular as well, polling at 24/49.

Tom Cotton was right... if AHCA passes like that the GOP is going to lose the House.

The big question then is if Democrats campaign on repealling the repeal or on for a new law or just push Clinton style reforms like HIPPA and SCHIP that arent enough.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 15, 2017, 09:32:41 AM
Rasmussen 3/9 - 3/13, 1500 LV  

Approve      46% (-1)
Disapprove  53% (--)

Strongly:
Approve      30% (-1)
Disapprove  43% (+1)


Rasmussen 3/10 - 3/14, 1500 LV  

Approve      45% (-1)
Disapprove  54% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      28% (-2)
Disapprove  44% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 15, 2017, 09:49:52 AM
Rasmussen 3/9 - 3/13, 1500 LV  

Approve      46% (-1)
Disapprove  53% (--)

Strongly:
Approve      30% (-1)
Disapprove  43% (+1)


Rasmussen 3/10 - 3/14, 1500 LV  

Approve      45% (-1)
Disapprove  54% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      28% (-2)
Disapprove  44% (+1)
Ouch


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 15, 2017, 10:11:38 AM
Morning Consult now filing the role of Rasmussen, has Trump JA at 52/43 and Americans approving of the AHCA 46/34. They have never shown him with a negative JA. Does anything in demographic crosstabs look off to you?


http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-cf3b-db68-a97b-dffbdcb40000


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 15, 2017, 10:22:06 AM
Quinnipiac - NJ:

Approve 34%
Disapprove 59%

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2439)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 15, 2017, 10:24:23 AM
New Jersey, the Q.

Trump -- approve 34%, disapprove 59%. No change in the map.

[https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2439

Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ajc0918 on March 15, 2017, 11:48:36 AM
Only 28% now "strongly approving" off President Trump is pretty striking. That means conservatives are starting to peel off.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 15, 2017, 12:05:30 PM
Gallup: Trump 40 (+1)
                       54 (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 15, 2017, 02:41:43 PM
There seems to be always seem to be one poll with positive JA for Trumpsters to cite, last time it was Rasmussen this time its Morning Consult. I bet he will talk about the MC poll any day now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 15, 2017, 04:51:28 PM
Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted March 13-14:

pdf link (http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d5qadu5j91/econToplines.pdf)

Trump job approval/disapproval:
41/49% for -8%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 15, 2017, 04:53:27 PM
YouGov , 3/13 - 3/14 compered to 3/6 - 3/7.

1500 A
Approve      41% (-1)
Disapprove  49% (--)

1320 RV
Approve      44% (--)
Disapprove  49% (-1)

Stable according to YouGov





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 15, 2017, 05:20:45 PM
Fox News poll (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/03/15/fox-news-poll-315/) of registered voters from 3/12 to 3/14:

Approve 43% (-5)
Disapprove 51% (+4)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 15, 2017, 05:26:56 PM
Fox News poll of registered voters from 3/12 to 3/14:

Approve 43% (-5)
Disapprove 51% (+4)

Strongly Approve 30%
Strongly Disapprove 45%

On Issues:

Economy 47-44
Terrorism 45-48
Immigration 41-56
Health Care 35-55
Relations with Russia 35-55

Muslim Ban 43-54


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 15, 2017, 05:34:18 PM
Some other favorables from the Fox News poll:

Bernie Sanders: 61/32
Planned Parenthood: 57/32
Obamacare: 50/47
Mike Pence: 47/43
Donald Trump: 44/53
Elizabeth Warren: 39/31
Paul Ryan: 37/47
Nancy Pelosi: 33/50
Sanctuary cities: 33/37
WikiLeaks: 31/46
Chuck Schumer: 26/30
Mitch McConnell: 20/44
The Freedom Caucus: 19/18


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 15, 2017, 05:42:55 PM
For the lub of god, Bernie must run in 2020

http://blog.quinnipiac.edu/blog/2013/02/08/hillary-clinton-the-most-popular-national-figure-quinnipiac-national-poll-finds-obama-approval-sinks-after-reelection/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 15, 2017, 06:10:44 PM
For the lub of god, Bernie must run in 2020

http://blog.quinnipiac.edu/blog/2013/02/08/hillary-clinton-the-most-popular-national-figure-quinnipiac-national-poll-finds-obama-approval-sinks-after-reelection/

There's no way Clinton has 60%+ favorability.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 15, 2017, 06:15:38 PM
For the lub of god, Bernie must run in 2020

http://blog.quinnipiac.edu/blog/2013/02/08/hillary-clinton-the-most-popular-national-figure-quinnipiac-national-poll-finds-obama-approval-sinks-after-reelection/

There's no way Clinton has 60%+ favorability.

It's a poll from 2013 haha. My point is Clinton had similarly high favorability numbers to Bernie four years ago.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 15, 2017, 06:16:28 PM
For the lub of god, Bernie must run in 2020

http://blog.quinnipiac.edu/blog/2013/02/08/hillary-clinton-the-most-popular-national-figure-quinnipiac-national-poll-finds-obama-approval-sinks-after-reelection/

There's no way Clinton has 60%+ favorability.

It's a poll from 2013 haha. My point is Clinton had similarly high favorability numbers to Bernie four years ago.

Sure, but Bernie isn't scandal-ridden, which means that he can sponge attacks.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 15, 2017, 06:28:13 PM
For the lub of god, Bernie must run in 2020

http://blog.quinnipiac.edu/blog/2013/02/08/hillary-clinton-the-most-popular-national-figure-quinnipiac-national-poll-finds-obama-approval-sinks-after-reelection/

There's no way Clinton has 60%+ favorability.

It's a poll from 2013 haha. My point is Clinton had similarly high favorability numbers to Bernie four years ago.

Sure, but Bernie isn't scandal-ridden
Yet.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 16, 2017, 12:01:31 AM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 16, 2017, 12:04:13 AM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 16, 2017, 12:04:44 AM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

LOL, if only the Washington Post had done 17 hit pieces a day instead of 16 they could have covered them all.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 16, 2017, 12:06:54 AM
For the lub of god, Bernie must run in 2020

http://blog.quinnipiac.edu/blog/2013/02/08/hillary-clinton-the-most-popular-national-figure-quinnipiac-national-poll-finds-obama-approval-sinks-after-reelection/

There's no way Clinton has 60%+ favorability.

It's a poll from 2013 haha. My point is Clinton had similarly high favorability numbers to Bernie four years ago.

Not every politician who runs for President had such a dip in popularity as Clinton's has. She basically holds the record.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Shadows on March 16, 2017, 03:30:40 AM
Bernie's numbers have stayed this way throughout 2015 & 2016 despite the dirty unhanded tactics of the Clinton campaign & the political hacks.

It is difficult for anyone to fall like Clinton did because truly nothing matches the illegal server handling classified information, selling access to the foundation or Clinton's truly dubious voting record or the fact that she was a terrible campaigner with no emotion or empathy but was a focused group tested robot.

The fact remains Bernie is also the most popular Senator with 87/12 & no1 is near him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 16, 2017, 09:08:39 AM
Rasmussen 3/10 - 3/14, 1500 LV  

Approve      45% (-1)
Disapprove  54% (+1)

Strongly:
Approve      28% (-2)
Disapprove  44% (+1)


Rasmussen 3/11 - 3/15, 1500 LV  

Approve      47% (+2)
Disapprove  53% (-1)

Strongly:
Approve      31% (+3)
Disapprove  44% (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 16, 2017, 10:15:01 AM
A legit PPP national poll of registered voters: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_31517.pdf

Approve 43% (-2)
Disapprove 50% (+2)


They also poll the generic House ballot here:

Dems 46%
GOP 41%

It's really early, of course, but a 5 point popular vote win wouldn't be enough for the Dems to take back the House, given the GOP's structural advantage in how the district lines are drawn.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 16, 2017, 11:45:33 AM
A legit PPP national poll of registered voters: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_31517.pdf

Approve 43% (-2)
Disapprove 50% (+2)


They also poll the generic House ballot here:

Dems 46%
GOP 41%

It's really early, of course, but a 5 point popular vote win wouldn't be enough for the Dems to take back the House, given the GOP's structural advantage in how the district lines are drawn.


Obviously, sustained or intensifying unpopularity of President Trump can grow that gap.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 16, 2017, 12:07:52 PM
Gallup: 42/53


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on March 16, 2017, 12:51:33 PM
They also poll the generic House ballot here:

Dems 46%
GOP 41%

It's really early, of course, but a 5 point popular vote win wouldn't be enough for the Dems to take back the House, given the GOP's structural advantage in how the district lines are drawn.

5% is roughly where it was at for much of 2016. Just like with Hillary, it imploded as Trump surged in the end. Five points is simply not enough, and doesn't indicate people are turning on Republicans - yet. Once we start seeing double digit numbers - even low, like 10, 11 points, or consistently high-single digits (8-9) on a regular basis, I think that is when the GOP should worry.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 16, 2017, 03:02:05 PM
They also poll the generic House ballot here:

Dems 46%
GOP 41%

It's really early, of course, but a 5 point popular vote win wouldn't be enough for the Dems to take back the House, given the GOP's structural advantage in how the district lines are drawn.

5% is roughly where it was at for much of 2016. Just like with Hillary, it imploded as Trump surged in the end. Five points is simply not enough, and doesn't indicate people are turning on Republicans - yet. Once we start seeing double digit numbers - even low, like 10, 11 points, or consistently high-single digits (8-9) on a regular basis, I think that is when the GOP should worry.

Double-digit numbers as a difference indicate that the GOP has big problems to solve, probably best while figuring things out as the minority party. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 16, 2017, 05:27:03 PM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 16, 2017, 05:56:47 PM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).

Your candidate lost to a gibbering clown who is mentally unstable. Many people pointed out that this was liable to occur seeing as she was, rightly or wrong, being investigated by the FBI but Clinton supporters tried to talk down this threat, ignoring polling data and public sentiment to support Our Beautiful Nominee. Who are the spoiled children here?

I tend to believe that it's the fault of candidates for not being able to appeal to base voters but, hey, you can call Sanders supporters "spoiled children" if you want (jfern certainly is a spoiled child but he's not really representative). That doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost and that the people you held up as idols are responsible for this. It also doesn't change the fact that you ironically supported Trump for almost a year. This cannot be said about Sanders supporters on the forum.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 16, 2017, 06:38:25 PM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).

Your candidate lost to a gibbering clown who is mentally unstable. Many people pointed out that this was liable to occur seeing as she was, rightly or wrong, being investigated by the FBI but Clinton supporters tried to talk down this threat, ignoring polling data and public sentiment to support Our Beautiful Nominee. Who are the spoiled children here?

I tend to believe that it's the fault of candidates for not being able to appeal to base voters but, hey, you can call Sanders supporters "spoiled children" if you want (jfern certainly is a spoiled child but he's not really representative). That doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost and that the people you held up as idols are responsible for this. It also doesn't change the fact that you ironically supported Trump for almost a year. This cannot be said about Sanders supporters on the forum.

Plenty of Sanders supporters are spoiled children. Most are not, but Trump-supporters like Jfern are. The Democrats bent over backwards to reach out to people like him, and they chose to live in their absurd fantasy world where DWS's nefarious schemes were the only reason that Saint Bernie lost and rallied behind a right-wing fascist instead.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Intell on March 16, 2017, 06:41:07 PM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).

Your candidate lost to a gibbering clown who is mentally unstable. Many people pointed out that this was liable to occur seeing as she was, rightly or wrong, being investigated by the FBI but Clinton supporters tried to talk down this threat, ignoring polling data and public sentiment to support Our Beautiful Nominee. Who are the spoiled children here?

I tend to believe that it's the fault of candidates for not being able to appeal to base voters but, hey, you can call Sanders supporters "spoiled children" if you want (jfern certainly is a spoiled child but he's not really representative). That doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost and that the people you held up as idols are responsible for this. It also doesn't change the fact that you ironically supported Trump for almost a year. This cannot be said about Sanders supporters on the forum.

Plenty of Sanders supporters are spoiled children. Most are not, but Trump-supporters like Jfern are. The Democrats bent over backwards to reach out to people like him, and they chose to live in their absurd fantasy world where DWS's nefarious schemes were the only reason that Saint Bernie lost and rallied behind a right-wing fascist instead.

I mean Jfren didn't vote for trump, to my knowledge but ok.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 16, 2017, 07:42:17 PM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).

Your candidate lost to a gibbering clown who is mentally unstable. Many people pointed out that this was liable to occur seeing as she was, rightly or wrong, being investigated by the FBI but Clinton supporters tried to talk down this threat, ignoring polling data and public sentiment to support Our Beautiful Nominee. Who are the spoiled children here?

I tend to believe that it's the fault of candidates for not being able to appeal to base voters but, hey, you can call Sanders supporters "spoiled children" if you want (jfern certainly is a spoiled child but he's not really representative). That doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost and that the people you held up as idols are responsible for this. It also doesn't change the fact that you ironically supported Trump for almost a year. This cannot be said about Sanders supporters on the forum.

Plenty of Sanders supporters are spoiled children. Most are not, but Trump-supporters like Jfern are. The Democrats bent over backwards to reach out to people like him, and they chose to live in their absurd fantasy world where DWS's nefarious schemes were the only reason that Saint Bernie lost and rallied behind a right-wing fascist instead.

The ramblings of a deluded man. If you want to stand by your word that NO ONE attacked Bernie in 2016 be my guest. Just goes to show what a troll you are, a useless one at best.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 16, 2017, 07:43:19 PM
Bernie has a closet full of potential scandals, there's just been no incentive for anyone to un-earth them yet. If he runs in 2020, there will be.

TROLOLOL running for president usually uncovers any scandals...Which he just did.

No one attacked Bernie in 2016, and no one had any reason to. For the Republicans, he served as a helpful diversion for Clinton, and for Clinton, he was never a serious threat to the nomination and she did not want to alienate his supporters (this was probably a mistake, as so many of them, like jfern, idiotically ended up supporting Trump anyway because they are spoiled children, but I digress).

Your candidate lost to a gibbering clown who is mentally unstable. Many people pointed out that this was liable to occur seeing as she was, rightly or wrong, being investigated by the FBI but Clinton supporters tried to talk down this threat, ignoring polling data and public sentiment to support Our Beautiful Nominee. Who are the spoiled children here?

I tend to believe that it's the fault of candidates for not being able to appeal to base voters but, hey, you can call Sanders supporters "spoiled children" if you want (jfern certainly is a spoiled child but he's not really representative). That doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost and that the people you held up as idols are responsible for this. It also doesn't change the fact that you ironically supported Trump for almost a year. This cannot be said about Sanders supporters on the forum.

Plenty of Sanders supporters are spoiled children. Most are not, but Trump-supporters like Jfern are. The Democrats bent over backwards to reach out to people like him, and they chose to live in their absurd fantasy world where DWS's nefarious schemes were the only reason that Saint Bernie lost and rallied behind a right-wing fascist instead.

Again, I seem to recall you sharing Trump memes, ironically supporting his candidacy etc. "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones." Do you feel guilty about this?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 16, 2017, 11:20:59 PM
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll has Trump's approval at 36/58. (http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-aca-replacement-plans-womens-health/?utm_campaign=KFF-2017-March-Poll-Early-Perceptions-House-Bill&utm_content=50908262&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)

iCitizen has it at 42/58 (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-13-16-2017/).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 17, 2017, 01:40:37 AM
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll has Trump's approval at 36/58. (http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-aca-replacement-plans-womens-health/?utm_campaign=KFF-2017-March-Poll-Early-Perceptions-House-Bill&utm_content=50908262&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)

iCitizen has it at 42/58 (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-13-16-2017/).

Holy moly


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 17, 2017, 02:27:18 AM
iCitizen has it at 42/58 (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-13-16-2017/).

Quote
Approval of Trump is strongest among Southerners (45%) and West Coast residents (47%), and disapproval is strongest among Northeastern residents (68%).

Wat.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 17, 2017, 04:12:07 AM
iCitizen has it at 42/58 (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-13-16-2017/).

Quote
Approval of Trump is strongest among Southerners (45%) and West Coast residents (47%), and disapproval is strongest among Northeastern residents (68%).

Wat.

According to their crosstabs, they broke the poll results down to the four Census Bureau regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/TrumpApproval_031617_Crosstabs_Final.pdf

So, maybe "West Coast" is a bit misleading as a description since it probably included Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Arizona as well.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jdk on March 17, 2017, 09:28:37 AM

Quote
Approval of Trump is strongest among Southerners (45%) and West Coast residents (47%), and disapproval is strongest among Northeastern residents (68%).

Wat.

According to their crosstabs, they broke the poll results down to the four Census Bureau regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.


So, maybe "West Coast" is a bit misleading as a description since it probably included Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Arizona as well.
Even with those included it seems high.  The only way it could be the west could be that high was that if you went as far east to include Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 17, 2017, 10:39:20 AM
Rasmussen

Approve      48% (+1)
Disapprove  52% (-1)

Strongly:
Approve      34% (+3)
Disapprove  43% (-1 )


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 17, 2017, 12:06:36 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 41% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 17, 2017, 12:26:45 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 41% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (+1)
XD


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 17, 2017, 03:15:17 PM
Ipsos MARCH 12-16

All Adults http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
Approve      44% ( -4)
Disapprove  49% (+2)

LV  http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
Approve      45% ( -4)
Disapprove  51% (+3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on March 17, 2017, 03:23:44 PM
Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 17, 2017, 04:06:19 PM
They're going down again! 8)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 17, 2017, 05:32:08 PM
Morning Consult seems to have oversampled rural areas. The breakdown is 43/31/23 suburban/rural/urban. Rural areas are only 17% of the electorate according to exit polls.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-cf3b-db68-a97b-dffbdcb40000


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 17, 2017, 05:38:18 PM
Morning Consult seems to have oversampled rural areas. The breakdown is 43/31/23 suburban/rural/urban. Rural areas are only 17% of the electorate according to exit polls.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-cf3b-db68-a97b-dffbdcb40000

But do all pollsters define urban/suburban/rural the same way?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 18, 2017, 12:12:55 PM
Gallup: 40 (-1)
            55 (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 18, 2017, 01:25:32 PM
()

Just a quarter of young Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view.
Majorities of young people across racial and ethnic lines hold negative views of the GOP.

The Democratic Party performs better, but views aren't overwhelmingly positive. Young people are more likely to have a favorable than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin. But just 14 percent say they have a strongly favorable view of the Democrats.

Views of the Democratic Party are most favorable among young people of color. Roughly 6 in 10 blacks, Asians and Latinos hold positive views of the party. Young whites are somewhat more likely to have unfavorable than favorable views, 47 percent to 39 percent.

As for Trump, 8 in 10 young people think he is doing poorly in terms of the policies he's put forward and 7 in 10 have negative views of his presidential demeanor.


Results of the 2020 election will not be pretty for Donald Trump, at least among the youngest voters. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 18, 2017, 01:42:37 PM
()

Just a quarter of young Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view.
Majorities of young people across racial and ethnic lines hold negative views of the GOP.

The Democratic Party performs better, but views aren't overwhelmingly positive. Young people are more likely to have a favorable than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin. But just 14 percent say they have a strongly favorable view of the Democrats.

Views of the Democratic Party are most favorable among young people of color. Roughly 6 in 10 blacks, Asians and Latinos hold positive views of the party. Young whites are somewhat more likely to have unfavorable than favorable views, 47 percent to 39 percent.

As for Trump, 8 in 10 young people think he is doing poorly in terms of the policies he's put forward and 7 in 10 have negative views of his presidential demeanor.


Results of the 2020 election will not be pretty for Donald Trump, at least among the youngest voters.  

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 18, 2017, 01:47:26 PM

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

I think we have to be really careful to not wade into the "demographics are destiny" argument against Trump winning reelection.  His presently poor approval ratings show us that he probably hasn't been able to win over many people who didn't vote for him thus far, but even if they remain mediocre, they still aren't determinant of his support levels four years from now.  In my opinion, that factor depends on whether people think the alternative is better.  If Democrats put up another weak nominee, young people might continue to stay home, or disproportionately wage protest votes for third party candidates.

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down drastically this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?

His approvals have not gone down drastically.  If you look at the RCP average chart, you would see that they have actually been incredibly stable, fluctuating between -5 and -6, give or take, since his election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: kyc0705 on March 18, 2017, 01:51:10 PM
()

Just a quarter of young Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view.
Majorities of young people across racial and ethnic lines hold negative views of the GOP.

The Democratic Party performs better, but views aren't overwhelmingly positive. Young people are more likely to have a favorable than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin. But just 14 percent say they have a strongly favorable view of the Democrats.

Views of the Democratic Party are most favorable among young people of color. Roughly 6 in 10 blacks, Asians and Latinos hold positive views of the party. Young whites are somewhat more likely to have unfavorable than favorable views, 47 percent to 39 percent.

As for Trump, 8 in 10 young people think he is doing poorly in terms of the policies he's put forward and 7 in 10 have negative views of his presidential demeanor.


Listen, I'll be eligible to vote in 2020, and I'm sure not going to vote for Trump, but I have no idea what an "illegitimate president" is. Calling someone that wasn't even a plausible argument on the first few episodes of Designated Survivor.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 18, 2017, 01:51:48 PM

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

I think we have to be really careful to not wade into the "demographics are destiny" argument against Trump winning reelection.  His presently poor approval ratings show us that he probably hasn't been able to win over many people who didn't vote for him thus far, but even if they remain mediocre, they still aren't determinant of his support levels four years from now.  In my opinion, that factor depends on whether people think the alternative is better.  If Democrats put up another weak nominee, young people might continue to stay home, or disproportionately wage protest votes for third party candidates.

Quote from: Rep. Minority Whip OneJ_ link=topic=252808.msg5574330#msg5574330

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down drastically this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?

They have not gone down drastically.  If you look at the RCP average since Trump's election, you would see that they are actually incredibly stable, fluctuating between -5 and -6, give or take.

Well not drastically.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 18, 2017, 01:59:11 PM
Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 18, 2017, 02:25:27 PM
President Trump isn't winning acceptance as a good and effective President from those who voted for Hillary Clinton. Grudging acceptance of him as President? Sure. Lots of people by now must have the misconception that his middle name begins with the letter F by now -- and it doesn't stand for Francis, Franklin, Frederick, or Felix.  Or even "Fido".  He has done little to build trust. He's still waging a grudge against someone who can never be President again.

It is below his vote, and at this stage he will need miracles just to avoid losing his three closest wins of 2016 -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- in 2020. That's before I even discuss Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 18, 2017, 02:32:02 PM
It's worth noting that according to 538, Trump is more unpopular now than he has ever been.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 18, 2017, 02:37:20 PM
Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

That's doing non-politicians a bit of an injustice, since Donald Trump is a special kind of non-politicianperson. I assume that someone like Bill Gates for instance would have made a significantly better president. Not that this is a particular hard task.

Still, Trump proves that is better to have a politician than a non-politician as president, since a previous political career can serve as sort of a vetting process. If Trump had been acting as a senator ten years ago as he's acting now, maybe he never would have gotten the Republican nomination. Or at least I hope so.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 18, 2017, 03:06:20 PM
It's worth noting that according to 538, Trump is more unpopular now than he has ever been.

His job approval is worse than it's been since his inauguration, but his favorability is better than it was during the campaign (including on election day):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 18, 2017, 03:21:51 PM
President Trump isn't winning acceptance as a good and effective President from those who voted for Hillary Clinton. Grudging acceptance of him as President? Sure. Lots of people by now must have the misconception that his middle name begins with the letter F by now -- and it doesn't stand for Francis, Franklin, Frederick, or Felix.  Or even "Fido".  He has done little to build trust. He's still waging a grudge against someone who can never be President again.

It is below his vote, and at this stage he will need miracles just to avoid losing his three closest wins of 2016 -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- in 2020. That's before I even discuss Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

Yeah. Three things need to happen for him to do better next time: A black swan event that scares people from voting against him, the next D nominee being less acceptable than generic D,  and him simply now being given the benefit of the doubt. That worked for W but Trump has a bigger hill to climb.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 18, 2017, 03:47:49 PM
Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!
Well he did win the election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 18, 2017, 03:59:59 PM
Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.
Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 18, 2017, 04:12:53 PM
Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.
Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

It'll still be more non-white.

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 18, 2017, 04:43:42 PM
Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.
Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

It'll still be more non-white.

()
Yeah but Mexican Migration was huge into the US from 1972-2005. There wasn't a big jump of migrants from East Asia for example during that time period like there was from Mexico.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on March 18, 2017, 05:22:16 PM
Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!
Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 18, 2017, 05:48:44 PM
Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!
Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right? :)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 18, 2017, 07:03:51 PM
Americans wondered what it would be like to have a non-politician as President, and they are finding out.

That's doing non-politicians a bit of an injustice, since Donald Trump is a special kind of non-politicianperson. I assume that someone like Bill Gates for instance would have made a significantly better president. Not that this is a particular hard task.

Except that Americans have little respect for literary genius (they prefer easily-read trash) this would be a nice time for a Vaclav Havel.

I know how I would act on certain matters. I recognize the validity of legal precedent and diplomatic protocol. I would quickly recognize the limits of my knowledge and even of practical  solutions, and know when to defer to the experts.  North Korea? I would be taking every possible trip to China, South Korea, and Japan. As one who respects law and order I would do everything possible to bust foreign figures of organized crime. I might be kissing up to Russia and Vladimir Putin on culture while having any gangster alien deported -- including Russian gangsters.

As significantly, the good-to-great Presidents have either been attorneys or senior military officers. Heck, Truman (the supposed exception) at least made the rank of colonel, and a smart kid like he would get unambiguous direction to go as far as he could in higher education...  I think he would have been a fine attorney. Attorneys are generalists capable of dealing with about everything but medicine, engineering, architecture, accounting, and art.

Trained attorneys are the bulk of American politicians above a certain level. There are other smart people, like accountants, physicians, dentists, engineers, and research scientists -- but most of those have no desire to enter politics. 
 

Quote
Still, Trump proves that is better to have a politician than a non-politician as president, since a previous political career can serve as sort of a vetting process. If Trump had been acting as a senator ten years ago as he's acting now, maybe he never would have gotten the Republican nomination. Or at least I hope so.

Indeed. But most politicians have made some shady compromises or have been involved in self-serving deeds or questionable loyalties (as soon as Donald Trump attacked Hillary Clinton for enabling her husband's sexual escapades he may have won despite bragging about grabbing women by the crotch, he may have destroyed her chances of winning the election). 

I see Trump's purported acumen as a businessman not so impressive as it seems to most Americans. He makes his money by exploiting a scarcity of housing in a high-income area. Outside of that he is not a successful businessman. So what causes anyone to think that he has the broad base of knowledge for dealing with military affairs, diplomacy, budgeting, or general legislation. Attorneys who enter politics to enhance their political careers often become politicians. Donald Trump is very much an Outsider.

Now suppose that I have a critical and delicate, high-risk operation awaiting me lest I die. Do I want a physician proudly in the mainstream of medicine, or do I want someone on the fringe?   

I rest my case.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 18, 2017, 07:23:38 PM
Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!
Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right? :)

Yes, he did. He won by seven points, and his party picked up nine seats in the Senate. As opposed to Trump, who lost by 2 points and whose party lost Senate seats


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on March 18, 2017, 08:10:45 PM
Looks like Trump's negatives are just about synchronized across polling outfits now. What a mandate he has!
Well he did win the election.

Pfft, you know what I mean. An actual mandate is different than just winning. He lost the popular vote by 2%+ and barely squeaked by in FL, PA, WI and MI - states he needed to win.

In an election between two candidates as disliked as Clinton/Trump, just barely winning like Trump is far from a mandate of any kind.

Did Obama have a mandate for Obamacare?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/us-health-bill

But it still was a good and necessary thing, right? :)

Yes, he did. He won by seven points, and his party picked up nine seats in the Senate. As opposed to Trump, who lost by 2 points and whose party lost Senate seats

But would you make the same point if Hillary had won while losing by 2% and was now pushing a more radical healthcare plan than Obamacare? The only thing that matters is who gets to 270. If the voters of PA, MI, WI etc don't like what Trump is doing then they can vote him out in 2020. No where is it written down that a party/candidate has to meet a certain criteria in winning an election in order to pursue their agenda. Besides, Trump's plans can easily be intellectually hammered without the need to resort to tedious lines about whether or not he has a mandate.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 19, 2017, 12:04:42 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 19, 2017, 12:09:36 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 19, 2017, 12:11:18 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 19, 2017, 12:13:53 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.
Yup, Obama's lowest approval ever in Gallup was 38%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 19, 2017, 12:30:19 PM
For historical comparison, here are the Gallup approvals of U.S. presidents during mid-to-late March of their first year in office:

Obama 63%
Bush II 58%
Clinton 53%
Bush I 56%
Reagan 60%
Carter 75%
Nixon 65%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 19, 2017, 12:42:08 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

Maybe. But what's different is that Trump is now (50+ days later) pushing for policy with health care and his budget. It's unpopular and maybe some "give him a chance" people are bailing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 19, 2017, 01:05:08 PM
By this point in 2009, Obama had already signed the stimulus into law though


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 19, 2017, 01:11:41 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

Definitely a special boy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 19, 2017, 01:20:41 PM
Trump should fix a better Health Care if he wants to win 2020.
25 million uninsured is beneath all contempt.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Clarence Boddicker on March 19, 2017, 01:27:20 PM
And that's with a GOOD economy. If we have a recession, his re-election is going to be very difficult.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 19, 2017, 01:36:13 PM
The collapse in support has to be due to the AHCA and wiretapping allegations.


()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 19, 2017, 02:20:31 PM
The collapse in support has to be due to the AHCA and wiretapping allegations.


()

And maybe Meals on Wheels aka Budgetgate.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 19, 2017, 02:33:56 PM
Yeah, if there's an economic downturn before the midterms or 2020, it'll be a massacre.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 19, 2017, 02:51:53 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 19, 2017, 03:12:00 PM
Are there state polls? I liked the old Obama approval map.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 19, 2017, 03:14:28 PM
Are there state polls? I liked the old Obama approval map.

Last one is on page 45


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 19, 2017, 03:24:46 PM
Yeah, if there's an economic downturn before the midterms or 2020, it'll be a massacre.

Basically 2018 will be a reverse 2010....and maybe that lulls enough people into complacency or moderates Trump enough that he wins a couple of extra really close states or loses one or two of the big four but sill wins.

Or else 2020 will see maybe a couple of states he won by DDs flip...or at least all of them that didn't.

But for we know, he might try to engineer a another mid size or bigger war to make him a hero or "the horse in midstream" or creates a bubble to postpone the downturn until 21 or 22.  Maybe Democrats implode. Who knows?

After all of this, anything could happen.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 19, 2017, 03:59:40 PM
But for we know, he might try to engineer a another mid size or bigger war to make him a hero or "the horse in midstream" or creates a bubble to postpone the downturn until 21 or 22.

Considering how "competently" he has run things so far, he'll probably lose any war he starts.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on March 19, 2017, 04:02:55 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

This is correct. Obama hit 38% approval twice (in August 2011 and again in October 2011) but never reached 37%, at least in Gallup.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 19, 2017, 04:42:43 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on March 19, 2017, 04:44:24 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.

Thats funny coming from you. Do you not remember your behavior here during the primaries?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 19, 2017, 04:50:10 PM
Are there state polls? I liked the old Obama approval map.

Last one is on page 45

I look forward to adding a 'new' state to the map or even revising an 'old' state. States that for which I most want to see a poll:

Colorado
Ohio
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Georgia
Missouri
Nevada
Maine

PPP had a poll of the 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin, and it didn't look so great for either Donald Trump or for the Congressman who looks a lot like Dracula. We might also have some interesting results for some Gubernatorial and Senate races.

Approval in the high 30s?  If such be so, then I would expect significant losses in support for President Trump in states that Bill Clinton or even Jimmy Carter used to win (if only in 1976) or even in states that haven't gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964.

These low ratings have happened without an economic meltdown, a diplomatic calamity, a military debacle, or the bungling of a national disaster. God help us should "The Big One (an earthquake)" strike California.

All House seats are up for grabs in 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 19, 2017, 05:08:03 PM
This is probably to be expected. Remember, when the news cycle was centered around Trump, he was getting his butt kicked in the polls. When the story was "Trump brags about sexual assault" or "Trump goes on a tweetstorm" or "Trump wants to ban Muslims" or "Trump flubs debate," he was losing by 7-9 points to HRC. It's only when the news cycle was focused on her emails was there a tightening.

Now that he's President, all the news is going to be about him. His tweetstorms, his party's healthcare bill, his Muslim bans, (and their blockage) his budget, his staff being insane, and so on. He has no foil in the form of HRC. He could try to engineer a bad story about the DNC to come out in October 2018, but that probably won't save his party the same way he was saved by Comey.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 19, 2017, 07:09:50 PM
This is probably to be expected. Remember, when the news cycle was centered around Trump, he was getting his butt kicked in the polls. When the story was "Trump brags about sexual assault" or "Trump goes on a tweetstorm" or "Trump wants to ban Muslims" or "Trump flubs debate," he was losing by 7-9 points to HRC. It's only when the news cycle was focused on her emails was there a tightening.

Now that he's President, all the news is going to be about him. His tweetstorms, his party's healthcare bill, his Muslim bans, (and their blockage) his budget, his staff being insane, and so on. He has no foil in the form of HRC. He could try to engineer a bad story about the DNC to come out in October 2018, but that probably won't save his party the same way he was saved by Comey.
He isn't banning Muslims. 90% of Muslims are not affected by the travel ban. I wish people would get that through their heads. The Travel Ban is not permanent either.

His healthcare bill-Its not his really its Paul Ryan's in the same way ObamaCare wasn't really Obama's bill it was Nancy Pelosi's and Harry Reid's bill. I will agree that the HealthCare Bill that is going through the federal government at this moment is flawed.

His budget-Its a budget that is DOA. The President is required by law to put out a budget I think for some reason. Its really a useless process in my opinion since "The President"(whoever it maybe)" their budgets never get passed as they(The President) writes them.

I do agree that the excessive tweeting has got to stop especially when he is a bad mood. I am sure though Obama did tweet on occasion but nowhere near to the amount that Trump did.

The narrative that Comey helped Trump win the election is really for the most part false. Hillary had issues of her own. Her loss of Black Turnout in MI and WI cost her as losing Non-College Whites by big margins in those 2 states. She also lost Non-College Whites in PA by big numbers and couldn't make up for that with College Whites in the Philly Burbs'.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on March 19, 2017, 07:13:58 PM
538's polling aggregate tracker also indicates his approvals have slipped over the past week, so this isn't just isolated to Gallup, it's a definitive trendline. It'll be interesting to see if this continues into the next week.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 19, 2017, 07:16:14 PM
Yeah, if there's an economic downturn before the midterms or 2020, it'll be a massacre.
Yes It seems like if there is an economic downturn by the time an election comes around the party in power takes a hit(think 1980 or 2008.) In 1992 the downturn was mild but Bush H.W. took the hit. It could have to do with that the Republicans had retained the White House for 3 straight Presidential Election Cycles(1980-1988) plus the factor of a mild economic downturn.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 19, 2017, 07:18:37 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.
Yeah but if we had a Presidential Election in 2010 Obama would have never won as his party took a beating in a mid-term and the economy sucked.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on March 19, 2017, 07:32:12 PM
Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

Maybe. But what's different is that Trump is now (50+ days later) pushing for policy with health care and his budget. It's unpopular and maybe some "give him a chance" people are bailing.
I did not vote for him in 2016 because of his comments about Mexicans and will not vote for him in 2020 for the same reason. However I did want to "give him a chance" on his policies but if he can't this Healthcare Bill right I am at least "on the line" on bailing. I bailed on Obama after the Healthcare Bill I think or "The Stimulus"(can't remember which one.)

His budget will never see the light of day even with Republicans controlling both legislative chambers.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 19, 2017, 09:45:20 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.

Thats funny coming from you. Do you not remember your behavior here during the primaries?

Ha yes where most of my predictions  turned out to be correct? Warning all not to vote for Clinton while you guys in your arrogance put leftist down while trying to get Republicans on your side. How did that turn out for ya?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 19, 2017, 09:46:11 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.
Of course the green leftie is telling me this


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 19, 2017, 09:47:40 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.
Of course the green leftie is telling me this
Putting down lefties? Good luck on taking back the Senate.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Maxwell on March 19, 2017, 09:48:11 PM
It's going to get worse from this point on. His whole appeal is "DEALS", and he's done a really pathetic job on that barometer.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 19, 2017, 09:49:06 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.
Of course the green leftie is telling me this
Putting down lefties? Good luck on taking back the Senate.

Then why are you putting other people down?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 19, 2017, 09:49:26 PM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.
Of course the green leftie is telling me this
Putting down lefties? Good luck on taking back the Senate.
I do have a D avatar, of course. Great observation


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: 2952-0-0 on March 19, 2017, 10:29:14 PM
But for we know, he might try to engineer a another mid size or bigger war to make him a hero or "the horse in midstream" or creates a bubble to postpone the downturn until 21 or 22.

Considering how "competently" he has run things so far, he'll probably lose any war he starts.
"Mister President, you started the war in North Korea with a 30% approval rating. Today's Gallup has you at 12%. Meanwhile 30,000 US troops have been killed and over 200,000 South Korean civilians are dead too. What do you have to say to the American people?"

"You know what? I gave the orders to do the job, and do it right, to the generals, and they screwed up. They didn't take out Kim Jong Un. It's all on them, believe me, it really is."

"But the CIA claims they told you there was a lack of reliable intelligence on Kim's location, and you simply told the military to strike wherever they guess he was. And that was like a cat in the pigeons, so to speak. The North Koreans then responded by firebombing Seoul."

"And because they yuugely screwed up, I fired the generals live on TV. It's all on them. Not on me. And if you excuse me I have another round of golf to play."


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 01:01:18 AM
But for we know, he might try to engineer a another mid size or bigger war to make him a hero or "the horse in midstream" or creates a bubble to postpone the downturn until 21 or 22.

Considering how "competently" he has run things so far, he'll probably lose any war he starts.
"Mister President, you started the war in North Korea with a 30% approval rating. Today's Gallup has you at 12%. Meanwhile 30,000 US troops have been killed and over 200,000 South Korean civilians are dead too. What do you have to say to the American people?"

"You know what? I gave the orders to do the job, and do it right, to the generals, and they screwed up. They didn't take out Kim Jong Un. It's all on them, believe me, it really is."

"But the CIA claims they told you there was a lack of reliable intelligence on Kim's location, and you simply told the military to strike wherever they guess he was. And that was like a cat in the pigeons, so to speak. The North Koreans then responded by firebombing Seoul."

"And because they yuugely screwed up, I fired the generals live on TV. It's all on them. Not on me. And if you excuse me I have another round of golf to play."

Continuation:

The generals fire him in a coup, using the 25th Amendment as a pretext. He is arrested for war crimes, and given a choice to either vacate America or stand trial as a war criminal. Transported to Reagan International Airport, he awaits a scheduled flight of Aeroflot  to Moscow. A dacha near Moscow is better than a prison cell in the Disciplinary Barracks in Leavenworth.




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on March 20, 2017, 03:13:31 AM
http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20170319/inside-politics-high-point-poll-says-55-percent-disapprove-of-trump

Quote
Most North Carolinians continue to disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to a poll released late last month by High Point University following his address to a joint session of Congress.

The survey says 55 percent disapprove of Trump’s work so far; 36 percent approve. This is similar to a survey done in early February, when 36 percent approved, but 52 disapproved of his performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 09:49:03 AM
http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20170319/inside-politics-high-point-poll-says-55-percent-disapprove-of-trump

Quote
Most North Carolinians continue to disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to a poll released late last month by High Point University following his address to a joint session of Congress.

The survey says 55 percent disapprove of Trump’s work so far; 36 percent approve. This is similar to a survey done in early February, when 36 percent approved, but 52 disapproved of his performance.
http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20170319/inside-politics-high-point-poll-says-55-percent-disapprove-of-trump

Quote
Most North Carolinians continue to disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to a poll released late last month by High Point University following his address to a joint session of Congress.

The survey says 55 percent disapprove of Trump’s work so far; 36 percent approve. This is similar to a survey done in early February, when 36 percent approved, but 52 disapproved of his performance.


It is an old poll, but it does replicate an earlier finding. Ouch!

Also telling:

Quote
The survey said 61 percent of residents disapproved of Congress.

Typical of a throw-the-bums-out scenario. A midterm election in which the President and a Congressional majority of the same Party as the President are both unpopular? Republicans obviously can't lose their Congressional majority in a midterm election because President Trump and the GOP majority in Congress are somehow charmed.  Right?

It's already much worse than for Obama and his Congressional majority in 2009.

Favorability:

(
)


Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

(
)




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.





Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 20, 2017, 10:13:36 AM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.
Of course the green leftie is telling me this
Putting down lefties? Good luck on taking back the Senate.
I do have a D avatar, of course. Great observation

Seems that you support the democratic establishment constantly so I really don't see how you can be Indy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 20, 2017, 10:39:48 AM
Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.
Of course the green leftie is telling me this
Putting down lefties? Good luck on taking back the Senate.
I do have a D avatar, of course. Great observation

Seems that you support the democratic establishment constantly so I really don't see how you can be Indy.
I voted for Clinton because I liked her political philosophy over the piece of sh*t alternative. I wasn't out here defending Schulz or Brazile.

I may not be a 'moderate hero, FF :)' but I'm not a Democrat either.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 10:48:04 AM
Here's news that can blow up against Republicans in one state that the Republican party practically owns. Don't be surprised if Republican support implodes in South Carolina:

Quote
An investigation into corruption at the Statehouse has taken aim at South Carolina’s command-and-control center – a network of power brokers and lawmakers who, if the allegations are true, milked the system of hundreds of thousands of dollars by skirting the state’s loose ethic laws.

The probe, led by special prosecutor David Pascoe, has the potential to challenge the state’s political power structure in ways even deeper than the Lost Trust sting in the 1990s.

Though scandalous, the Lost Trust cases targeted lawmakers who could be bought with small amounts of money – lawmakers who held relatively little power in the General Assembly.

http://www.postandcourier.com/features/targets-of-influence-investigation-zeroes-in-on-how-money-and/article_0049f2be-0b43-11e7-9c24-5feb8d6a203b.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 20, 2017, 11:39:47 AM
Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 20, 2017, 12:02:25 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 20, 2017, 12:10:08 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.

Eh, the overall trajectory has still be trending towards negative.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 12:56:07 PM
Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.

The poll that I most want to see.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on March 20, 2017, 05:21:13 PM
Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, Marquette badly blew the 2016 election, and didn't see the thrashing that President Trump and Senator Johnson would deal to the Big Losers.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on March 20, 2017, 07:03:38 PM
Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, Marquette badly blew the 2016 election, and didn't see the thrashing that President Trump and Senator Johnson would deal to the Big Losers.

1< point win and 4-point win=/= thrashing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on March 20, 2017, 08:02:15 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.

Eh, the overall trajectory has still be trending towards negative.

Yeah, 39% is still one of his worst numbers. We'll see.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on March 20, 2017, 08:06:00 PM
Now now everybody lets not get too excited over polls after what we saw last election. The entire 2016 election was suppose to calm down everybody including myself with polls but instead I felt more like I had been violated by a huge poll when all was said and done.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 08:28:05 PM
Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, Marquette badly blew the 2016 election, and didn't see the thrashing that President Trump and Senator Johnson would deal to the Big Losers.

Donald Trump and other Republicans may have had a late-season surge that was not captured in polls. We shall see whether this surge has persisted in Wisconsin. A recent poll of Iowa showed Donald Trump underwater in neighboring Iowa, which has traditionally been very similar to Wisconsin in demographics and voting patterns. A hint: Senator Joni Ernst is unpopular in Iowa and will likely be fighting for her political life in 2020.

I am saying nothing about the results of  this poll until I see it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 20, 2017, 08:31:40 PM
Here is a favorability poll of Colorado, conducted March 8-13:

http://gazette.com/hickenlooper-viewed-favorably-trump-less-so-in-new-keatingonsight-colorado-polling/article/1599330

favorable 43%
unfavorable 55%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 20, 2017, 08:34:45 PM
Here is a favorability poll of Colorado, conducted March 8-13:

http://gazette.com/hickenlooper-viewed-favorably-trump-less-so-in-new-keatingonsight-colorado-polling/article/1599330

favorable 43%
unfavorable 55%


That's actually not that bad for Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 09:04:11 PM
Here is a favorability poll of Colorado, conducted March 8-13:

http://gazette.com/hickenlooper-viewed-favorably-trump-less-so-in-new-keatingonsight-colorado-polling/article/1599330

favorable 43%
unfavorable 55%


Favorability:

(
)




Approval:

(
)




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on March 20, 2017, 09:28:29 PM
Marquette had a Wisconsin poll in the field over the weekend, will be released on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, Marquette badly blew the 2016 election, and didn't see the thrashing that President Trump and Senator Johnson would deal to the Big Losers.

Donald Trump and other Republicans may have had a late-season surge that was not captured in polls. We shall see whether this surge has persisted in Wisconsin. A recent poll of Iowa showed Donald Trump underwater in neighboring Iowa, which has traditionally been very similar to Wisconsin in demographics and voting patterns. A hint: Senator Joni Ernst is unpopular in Iowa and will likely be fighting for her political life in 2020.

I am saying nothing about the results of  this poll until I see it.

Well, yes. Iowa has traditionally been close to Wisconsin.

When stud pollster Selzer released (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/) a poll showing Trump up 7 points, that was a warning sign in Wisconsin! Unfortunately, some pollsters kept release garbage poll after garbage poll in the state of Wisconsin, to the point where they duped Stupid Hillary into not even competing in the state.

The same stud pollster shows Ernst with massively great approval ratings (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248623.0) similar to Charles Grassley (simple farmer from Iowa). Grassley just won re-election by over 20 points.

The same stud pollster showed Ernst winning Iowa in a landslide in 2014. White liberals didn't like that, but she did (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201744.0).

Meanwhile, in Marquette polls, this turd Feingold was up double digits in many of their polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html). No way!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on March 20, 2017, 09:59:40 PM
http://www.fayobserver.com/news/20170319/inside-politics-high-point-poll-says-55-percent-disapprove-of-trump

Quote
Most North Carolinians continue to disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to a poll released late last month by High Point University following his address to a joint session of Congress.

The survey says 55 percent disapprove of Trump’s work so far; 36 percent approve. This is similar to a survey done in early February, when 36 percent approved, but 52 disapproved of his performance.

Not Good!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2017, 10:16:20 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.

Eh, the overall trajectory has still be trending towards negative.

Yeah, 39% is still one of his worst numbers. We'll see.

Just when you wonder whether it can get worse for the President... it gets worse.

()

Gallup: 37% approve, 58% disapprove.

Sure, it could be statistical noise between days.  It isn't getting prettier. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 21, 2017, 11:04:29 AM
ARG(!!)

41% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 21, 2017, 11:35:57 AM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (+2)
Disapprove: 55 (-3)

Yeah, seems like it was just noise after all.

Eh, the overall trajectory has still be trending towards negative.

Yeah, 39% is still one of his worst numbers. We'll see.

Just when you wonder whether it can get worse for the President... it gets worse.

()

Gallup: 37% approve, 58% disapprove.

Sure, it could be statistical noise between days.  It isn't getting prettier. 

What a beautiful graph.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 21, 2017, 12:01:37 PM
Gallup remains pretty stable today

Approve 39% (+-0)
Disapprove 56% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 21, 2017, 12:11:20 PM
Gallup remains pretty stable today

Approve 39% (+-0)
Disapprove 56% (+1)
Awful but stable


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 21, 2017, 12:28:43 PM
Oh dear.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 21, 2017, 02:05:52 PM
Gallup remains pretty stable today

Approve 39% (+-0)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Seems like Trump went from being around 42+-2 to 40+-2 (in Gallup).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 21, 2017, 02:19:48 PM
We are pretty much back to where we were in late 2005/ early 2006, with a Republican lock on everything that only had a 37- 40% approval rating and a growing mantra that "Conservatives are incompetent and Liberals are unelectable". Even the economy is at a shaky B- like it was then where things are steady but there is nothing really going on except that investors thinking that things will be OK because the ruling Government will do anything for rich people.

Things are even similiar down to where we have a SCOTUS openning, a very old liberal on the Court, and a congress that currently wants to be the first Congress to pioneer cancelling a major part of the safety net rather than conditioning/austeritizing it.

The only differene is that we aren't losing a hundred people a month in the Fertile Crescent in the war there.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 21, 2017, 02:28:54 PM
It's still the Obama economy operating on autopilot. When the autopilot falters, then the Trump presidency and the GOP majorities in Congress will be in big trouble if they botch the transition to... whatever. 

I am not saying that we are due for a recession, but if one happens, things can go very bad very fast for the politicians in power. Economic stewardship is one of the measures by which voters judge elected officials. Never forget that. It may not be fair, but such is modern reality. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 21, 2017, 07:17:14 PM
A SurveyUSA poll of NY's 2nd CD (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca77b04a-19e7-4c35-84e4-85a21a85441c):

43% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 9.1%. That poll also shows Peter King is beyond safe.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 21, 2017, 07:52:29 PM
A SurveyUSA poll of NY's 2nd CD (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca77b04a-19e7-4c35-84e4-85a21a85441c):

43% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 9.1%. That poll also shows Peter King is beyond safe.
Steve Bellone should lick his lips at those #'s


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 21, 2017, 08:14:55 PM
A SurveyUSA poll of NY's 2nd CD (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca77b04a-19e7-4c35-84e4-85a21a85441c):

43% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 9.1%. That poll also shows Peter King is beyond safe.

Respondents be like "who the hell is Mike Sax?"

Interesting that 44% say it's time for someone new and 46% say to re-elect King. He's pretty popular and represents the district well so I would've expected the gap to be wider. Ultimately I'd expect this district and NY-11 to be among Trump's most favorable districts in the state.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 21, 2017, 09:03:27 PM
A SurveyUSA poll of NY's 2nd CD (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca77b04a-19e7-4c35-84e4-85a21a85441c):

43% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 9.1%. That poll also shows Peter King is beyond safe.

This was conducted between March 7th and March 12th so Trump's almost certainly more underwater than this by now. Also, the poll was conducted by...Mike Sax.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 21, 2017, 09:28:47 PM
Steve Bellone would probably make it a tossup/possibly leans D affair in an open seat just because he's that popular, but I doubt he could take out King.
I don't know I could see him beating King in 2018 I mean we are only 60 days in at the rate Trump's going he could be 32-35% approval an reps have no motivation to vote while the left is fired up in a way we haven't been in years


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 22, 2017, 08:55:40 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30d-d373-a17b-ffbf89cd0000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30c-dc62-a1db-f3ff026b0001

approve 50%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +10
Northeast: -12
South: +15
West: +/-0

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -48
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +8
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +1

7% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 22, 2017, 09:23:59 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30d-d373-a17b-ffbf89cd0000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30c-dc62-a1db-f3ff026b0001

approve 50%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +10
Northeast: -12
South: +15
West: +/-0

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -48
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +8
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +1

7% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


This is a 3 point drop from there last poll, but still their numbers a laughable.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 22, 2017, 11:36:31 AM
Ipsos 3/16 - 3/20 compared to 3/11 - 3/15

All Adults, 1500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
46% (+1)
48% (-1)

LV, 500 = huge MOE http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
49% (+4)
48% (-3)

Rasmussen, 3/19 - 3/21 compared to 3/14 - 3/16, 1500 LV
46% (-2)
54% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 22, 2017, 11:51:04 AM
Yougov 3/19 - 3/21, compared to 3/13 - 3/14 https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/afgf7c40wf/econTabReport.pdf

All Adults
41% (-/-)
46% (-3)

RV
44% (-/-)
49% (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 22, 2017, 12:13:14 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30d-d373-a17b-ffbf89cd0000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30c-dc62-a1db-f3ff026b0001

approve 50%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +10
Northeast: -12
South: +15
West: +/-0

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -48
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +8
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +1

7% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Still seems to be over sampling rural areas.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 22, 2017, 12:20:48 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 40% (+1)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 22, 2017, 12:31:14 PM
Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

I'll post the source once it's released.

Wisconsinites disagree with almost every single major Trump proposal/action (Health Care, The Wall, Increased Deportations, etc.)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 22, 2017, 12:32:33 PM
Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

So the question is was Hillary just a bad fit for the state?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 22, 2017, 12:34:59 PM
Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

So the question is was Hillary just a bad fit for the state?

Yes, he went on to say that heavily won late decidedness and folks that hated both candidates.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 22, 2017, 12:52:07 PM
Quinnipiac Poll:

37% Approve (-4)
56% Disapprove (+4)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2442)

The key is his base is eroding.

Men:

43% Approve (-6)
52% Disapprove (+7)

Whites:

44% Approve (-5)
50% Disapprove (+5)

Republicans:

81% Approve (-10)
14% Disapprove (+9)

Whites With No College Degree:

50% Approve (-10)
43% Disapprove (+9)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 22, 2017, 12:55:22 PM
Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

So the question is was Hillary just a bad fit for the state?

Well, keep in mind that the exit poll on election day showed Trump with terrible favorability #s in Wisconsin.  It was:

favorable 35%
unfavorable 64%

So 29 points underwater on favorability, while Clinton was 14 points underwater.  Trump won quite a few states where he was heavily underwater on favorability, and with lower ratings than Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 22, 2017, 12:59:47 PM
Quinnipiac Poll:

37% Approve (-4)
56% Disapprove (+4)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2442)

The key is his base is eroding.

Men:

43% Approve (-6)
52% Disapprove (+7)

Whites:

44% Approve (-5)
50% Disapprove (+5)

Republicans:

81% Approve (-10)
14% Disapprove (+9)

Whites With No College Degree:

50% Approve (-10)
43% Disapprove (+9)


37% on Quinnipiac too. It's looking bad.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 22, 2017, 01:21:19 PM
Where are the dumpster fire and trainwreck GIFs when I need them?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 22, 2017, 01:33:00 PM
Quinnipiac Poll (national):

37% Approve (-4)
56% Disapprove (+4)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2442)

The key is his base is eroding.

Men:

43% Approve (-6)
52% Disapprove (+7)

Whites:

44% Approve (-5)
50% Disapprove (+5)

Republicans:

81% Approve (-10)
14% Disapprove (+9)

Whites With No College Degree:

50% Approve (-10)
43% Disapprove (+9)



Now the poll for which I salivate:

Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

So the question is was Hillary just a bad fit for the state?

Yes, he went on to say that heavily won late decidedness and folks that hated both candidates.

President Trump would lose Wisconsin if he were running for re-election this year.

It will be interesting to see how Governor Walker and  Senator Baldwin fare.



Favorability:

(
)


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 22, 2017, 04:24:25 PM
Reuters/Ipsos (3/17-3/21):
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 47%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7607

One thing that seems off to me in that poll is the partisan distribution:

Democrat: 43.7%
Republican: 42.0%
Independent: 14.2%

Aren't independents way too low, and shouldn't the gap between Democrats and Republicans be greater than that?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on March 23, 2017, 05:15:06 AM
Quinnipiac Poll:

37% Approve (-4)
56% Disapprove (+4)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2442)

The key is his base is eroding.

Men:

43% Approve (-6)
52% Disapprove (+7)

Whites:

44% Approve (-5)
50% Disapprove (+5)

Republicans:

81% Approve (-10)
14% Disapprove (+9)

Whites With No College Degree:

50% Approve (-10)
43% Disapprove (+9)


And you're telling us Morning Consult numbers were laughable. Calling these numbers a joke would be insulting to any joke.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on March 23, 2017, 05:16:46 AM
Reuters/Ipsos (3/17-3/21):
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 47%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7607

One thing that seems off to me in that poll is the partisan distribution:

Democrat: 43.7%
Republican: 42.0%
Independent: 14.2%

Aren't independents way too low, and shouldn't the gap between Democrats and Republicans be greater than that?

Yeah, should be D+15 like (probably) with Gallup, Qunnipiac or back with the Election polls that were so accurate...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 23, 2017, 08:26:48 AM
Reuters/Ipsos (3/17-3/21):
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 47%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7607

One thing that seems off to me in that poll is the partisan distribution:

Democrat: 43.7%
Republican: 42.0%
Independent: 14.2%

Aren't independents way too low, and shouldn't the gap between Democrats and Republicans be greater than that?

Yeah, should be D+15 like (probably) with Gallup, Qunnipiac or back with the Election polls that were so accurate...

They were. They nailed down the popular vote almost to a T.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 23, 2017, 09:12:23 AM
Harvard-Harris national poll, conducted Mar. 14-16 (registered voters):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/harris-harvard-27335

approve 49%
disapprove 51%

favorable 44%
unfavorable 51%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 23, 2017, 11:07:59 AM
Political Polls‏
@Politics_Polls

CALIFORNIA
Trump Job Approval:
Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1230

Doesn't change my map.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 23, 2017, 11:28:05 AM
Political Polls‏
@Politics_Polls

CALIFORNIA
Trump Job Approval:
Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1230

35/62 among LV


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 23, 2017, 12:07:58 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 56% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 23, 2017, 12:40:37 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 56% (+1)
Hahahaha


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 23, 2017, 01:54:37 PM
Political Polls‏
@Politics_Polls

CALIFORNIA
Trump Job Approval:
Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1230

35/62 among LV

Who knows what a 'likely voter' of 2020 will be?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on March 23, 2017, 01:57:35 PM
Oof. The RCP graph did not look pretty for Trump yesterday:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 23, 2017, 02:27:03 PM
Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 23, 2017, 04:30:45 PM
Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.
He is 1-3% lower than a month ago and still is 5-10% higher than during election. Monumental collapse?

AHCA might though cause collapse in the future though...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 23, 2017, 04:59:35 PM
When did Bush abandon privatizing Social Security?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 23, 2017, 05:47:26 PM
Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.
He is 1-3% lower than a month ago and still is 5-10% higher than during election. Monumental collapse?

AHCA might though cause collapse in the future though...
Favorables aren't approvals


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 23, 2017, 06:10:24 PM
Do people still think KXL will reduce gas prices?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 23, 2017, 06:35:13 PM
Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.
He is 1-3% lower than a month ago and still is 5-10% higher than during election. Monumental collapse?

AHCA might though cause collapse in the future though...
Favorables aren't approvals
In theory - yes.

If you check the numbers you'll hardly see any difference.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 24, 2017, 04:44:26 AM
Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.
He is 1-3% lower than a month ago and still is 5-10% higher than during election. Monumental collapse?

AHCA might though cause collapse in the future though...
Favorables aren't approvals

At this stage they are very close. I saw one in which Michigan had a 39% approval and 40% favorability (or was it the other way around?) That put the two in different categories, but I can hardly see a difference between the two even if the map suggests a difference.

Favorability asks whether people like the fellow. Approval asks whether they like what he has done. As the end of the President's term ends, approval becomes more relevant. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 24, 2017, 08:12:34 AM
SurveyMonkey:

Approve 42%
Disapprove 56%

Strongly disapprove outweighs strongly approve 44%-23%

Source (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfTFpjeURVRWVKUUk/view)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 24, 2017, 09:03:55 AM
According to Gallup, Trump now has three times as many days at or below 40 than he does at or above 45.


()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 24, 2017, 09:37:21 AM
ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-20-23-2017/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 24, 2017, 09:39:47 AM
ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-20-23-2017/)

Whoa, that disapproval


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 24, 2017, 10:15:02 AM
Trump falls to 44/56 in Rasmussen. (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history) A new low.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 24, 2017, 11:14:21 AM
Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.
He is 1-3% lower than a month ago and still is 5-10% higher than during election. Monumental collapse?

AHCA might though cause collapse in the future though...
Favorables aren't approvals
In theory - yes.

If you check the numbers you'll hardly see any difference.
Obama's favorables were better than his approvals. Bill Clinton's approvals were a lot better than his favorables.

In reality, even a difference of a few points is pretty significant.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 24, 2017, 11:55:55 AM
SurveyMonkey:

Approve 42%
Disapprove 56%

Strongly disapprove outweighs strongly approve 44%-23%

Source (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfTFpjeURVRWVKUUk/view)
Trump's approval rating felt by 4% to his all-time low 42% in SurveyMonkey among all adults.

Among RV it felt by 3% to all-time low 44%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 24, 2017, 12:25:52 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 41% (+2)
Disapprove: 54% (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 24, 2017, 12:29:50 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 41% (+2)
Disapprove: 54% (-2)
So he's in this 38-41 range


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on March 24, 2017, 12:33:20 PM
ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-20-23-2017/)

Holy midterm, Batman!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 24, 2017, 12:34:58 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on March 24, 2017, 12:38:04 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 24, 2017, 12:40:57 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on March 24, 2017, 12:45:22 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 24, 2017, 01:36:04 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 24, 2017, 01:54:29 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 24, 2017, 01:59:31 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.


It's counties he won a lot of them are hardcore red counties so take that with a grain of salt


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 24, 2017, 02:15:59 PM
A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire: (https://americanresearchgroup.com/)

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 24, 2017, 02:23:39 PM
I'm sry curious as to how iCitizen defines its regions. Their latest poll says the West Coast (not the west in general) is his best region, more than the South.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 24, 2017, 02:25:21 PM
Votes on the margin, the swing votes, can decide elections one time, or they can indicate trends. They should be seen as the shakiest of votes for the next election.

Three things can be true of such votes.

1. They can indicate a long-term trend. This is so if they reflect demographic or cultural change. A country that gets a big influx of Latino voters might be headed Democratic. A county going from rural to urban might have gone from Democratic to Republican.

Blue-collar white people may have been the likely suspects this time. If JFK was telling people "Ask not what your country can do for you -- ask what you can do for your country"... Donald Trump might have been implying along with libertarian types "Ask what your country can do TO you".  

2. A politician may be appealing to visceral concerns -- concerns the most difficult to meet.  If he gets genuine progress in meeting those concerns he might build a permanent coalition as did FDR. As late as the 1990s, Bill Clinton won elections largely on  the New Deal coalition.

Donald Trump is an FDR. Barack Obama, who clearly did not create a permanent coalition that got solid majorities for him in the House and Senate, was closer to being a new FDR. That is a tough standard, one that Donald Trump will never meet.

3. The politician can fail to meet those concerns. If it is pure bigotry, then the Courts might decide that such bigotry when translated into public policy violates the Constitution. If bait-and-switch economics, then those who voted for the bait and got the switch can vote with those who rejected the bait in the next election.  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 24, 2017, 03:04:08 PM
A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire: (https://americanresearchgroup.com/)

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

Hahaha it's ARG but it's seems sadly legit.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 24, 2017, 03:22:38 PM
It's a small state, but potentially a pivotal state -- New Hampshire. Democrats have not won the Presidency without the Granite State since 1976, and it was potentially the difference between Gore and Bush in 2000. It was one of Hillary Clinton's weakest wins.

A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire: (https://americanresearchgroup.com/)

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

New Hampshire is about D+2; it does not swing much from the national average. Polling has been slow, and it is hard to see how New Hampshire could disapprove of Donald Trump by 55% or more unless he is incredibly awful. This is close to consistent with about 35% approval for the President nationwide.

I see evidence that Donald Trump would lose six states that he won in 2016: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At this point I would expect Donald Trump to lose 'bigly' in 2020.  Maybe not like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. The Democrats do not have an FDR or a Reagan, but they do not need one.  

 




Favorability:

(
)


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Blackacre on March 24, 2017, 03:29:23 PM
Any approvals out of Ohio?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 24, 2017, 03:37:30 PM

Not yet. Ohio is typically about R+2... and it would be good for calibrating approval for the President. It swung sharply in 2016. I expect Ohio to look bad for President Trump. He suggested that he would create lots of blue-collar jobs -- where are the jobs?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 24, 2017, 03:38:30 PM

Not yet. Ohio is typically about R+2... and it would be good for calibrating approval for the President. It swung sharply in 2016. I expect Ohio to look bad for President Trump. He suggested that he would create lots of blue-collar jobs -- where are the jobs?

I'd predict it to be around 44-55.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 24, 2017, 03:59:24 PM
Interesting how AHCA failure will play out. I think that the pundits will be proven wrong ::)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 24, 2017, 04:09:07 PM
Interesting how AHCA failure will play out. I think that the pundits will be proven wrong ::)
Yeah when a president fails on his first major legislation his #'s don't go up


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on March 24, 2017, 04:17:34 PM
Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.



That seems like an underwhelming margin, though. If thoseundecideds split 2/3ds pub that would still be approaching democratic wave territory


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 24, 2017, 05:31:54 PM
Interesting how AHCA failure will play out. I think that the pundits will be proven wrong ::)
Yeah when a president fails on his first major legislation his #'s don't go up

Only the fact that media will talk less about his Obama-wiretapped-Trump-Tower-drivel might be enough. We'll see.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on March 24, 2017, 07:02:53 PM
ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source (https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-20-23-2017/)

Whoa, that disapproval

Total collapse folks!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on March 24, 2017, 10:34:00 PM
God, I can't wait to see what happens to his numbers once the polls cover this healthcare fiasco.

This is something for another thread, but it seems like the worst of both worlds, where he didn't pull through for the Republicans, but hasn't done enough for the Democrats to warrant any increased support from them either.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 25, 2017, 03:58:41 PM
Gallup, MARCH 22-24

41 (-/-)
54 (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 25, 2017, 04:37:29 PM

The next three days will be interesting to see. The Gallup poll which is released on Tuesday will be conducted 100% after AHCA has failed.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 25, 2017, 05:41:26 PM

The next three days will be interesting to see. The Gallup poll which is released on Tuesday will be conducted 100% after AHCA has failed.

Yes. We'll hopefully get a lot of good polls (from Monmouth/QU/CNN/Fox News) as well during next week(s)?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 26, 2017, 10:17:12 AM
Civitas poll of North Carolina (https://www.nccivitas.org/2017/poll-trump-numbers-improve-nc/):

49% Approve
46% Disapprove

It's also a week old, so it's prior to the AHCA debacle.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 26, 2017, 12:36:52 PM
Gallup: 40 (-1)/54 (nc)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 26, 2017, 10:36:30 PM
Governor John Kasich, term-limited as Governor of Ohio, says that he is not running for any other elected office.

Does anyone think that we might soon see a poll of Ohio?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 27, 2017, 09:40:49 AM
Rasmussen

Total (-9):
45 (+1)
54 (-2)

Strongly (-16):
28 (-1)
44 (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 27, 2017, 12:03:12 PM
Today's Gallup

Approve 36% (-4)
Disapprove 57% (+3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ebsy on March 27, 2017, 12:03:51 PM
Collapsing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on March 27, 2017, 12:05:03 PM
Under budget and ahead of schedule!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 27, 2017, 12:06:05 PM
0.0


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 27, 2017, 12:09:48 PM
Wow :D


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on March 27, 2017, 12:09:48 PM
Bill Clinton's record low was 37% and he was literally impeached.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 27, 2017, 12:11:40 PM

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 27, 2017, 12:12:00 PM

Lowest Gallup approval for Trump ever.

Second-highest disapproval so far.

(He had a 58% disapproval on March 18... five days after the CBO score on AHCA came out, three days after Muslim Ban 2.0 was blocked, and two days after his budget request was released.)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on March 27, 2017, 12:12:45 PM
Bill Clinton's record low was 37% and he was literally impeached.
Trump likes to break down those lows.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 27, 2017, 12:12:56 PM
In Trump's words, let's just have the election tomorrow!  Why wait?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Edu on March 27, 2017, 12:16:32 PM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 27, 2017, 12:17:06 PM
In Trump's words, let's just have the election tomorrow!  Why wait?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on March 27, 2017, 12:20:10 PM
The new Gallup poll hasn't been added to RCP yet, but it should put him at least 10 points under water on the average of polls. For reference, here are some of Obama's numbers:

March 27th, 2009 (same point in Obama presidency):  +30.0 (approve 60.8, disapprove 30.8 )
Election night 2010: -4.3 (approve 45.4, disapprove 49.7)
Election night 2012: +3.0 (approve 50.1, disapprove 47.1)
December 2nd 2013: (worst approval for Obama): -16.1 (approve 39.8, disapprove 55.9)
Election night 2014: -10.8 (approve 42.2, disapprove 53)
Election night 2016: +8.5 (approve 52.9, disapprove 44.4)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on March 27, 2017, 12:20:35 PM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 27, 2017, 12:34:30 PM






()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 27, 2017, 12:44:11 PM
For historical comparison, approval ratings of Trump's predecessors at this point in their first term (late March/early April of Year 1):

Nixon: 63%
Carter: 72%
Reagan: 67%
Bush I: 56%
Clinton: 52%
Bush II: 53%
Obama: 61%



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 27, 2017, 01:10:32 PM
lmao, Midterms will be a bloodbath if he keeps this up.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 27, 2017, 02:24:06 PM
I honestly think the first couple months of Trump's administration have set the bar so low for him that succeeding at passing even a minor piece of legislation would bring his approvals up to 45-50%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on March 27, 2017, 04:24:09 PM
Amazing how fast his approvals are imploding. Though, I suppose this is a natural consequence when you take office already in the hole, ratings-wise.

I'd love to know what his approval ratings will be in October 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on March 27, 2017, 05:39:41 PM
Amazing how fast his approvals are imploding. Though, I suppose this is a natural consequence when you take office already in the hole, ratings-wise.

I'd love to know what his approval ratings will be in October 2018.

I want to say around 30%, but we've all underestimated him before. Though of course governing is a much different dynamic than BSing your way through a campaign.

I would say he still has enough moronic support out there to keep the Democrats from gaining control of any part of Congress as well as reelecting him in 2020. That's why the those of us who are sane need to stay on top of things, never stop questioning his already many scandals, vote, and get others to vote too...maybe we can be a counter to his cult.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 27, 2017, 07:30:44 PM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2017, 08:00:52 PM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 27, 2017, 08:06:21 PM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.

NY seems to be one of the few states where he has a higher favorability than approval, although that trend seems to exist more Upstate. His approval rating is:

10% Excellent
16% Good
14% Fair
57% Poor


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2017, 08:16:15 PM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.

NY seems to be one of the few states where he has a higher favorability than approval, although that trend seems to exist more Upstate. His approval rating is:

10% Excellent
16% Good
14% Fair
57% Poor

That's rough.

I guess higher favorables makes sense considering it's his home state, though I don't think it'll matter come election time considering he splits his time between DC and Florida and Melania is costing taxpayers millions.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 27, 2017, 10:03:02 PM
The religion crosstabs in that poll are fishy.  Jews like Trump more than Protestants do?  Really?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 27, 2017, 10:16:04 PM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.

NY seems to be one of the few states where he has a higher favorability than approval, although that trend seems to exist more Upstate. His approval rating is:

10% Excellent
16% Good
14% Fair
57% Poor

This is how Democrats grab 3-4 House seats from NY.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 27, 2017, 10:32:39 PM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.

NY seems to be one of the few states where he has a higher favorability than approval, although that trend seems to exist more Upstate. His approval rating is:

10% Excellent
16% Good
14% Fair
57% Poor

This is how Democrats grab 3-4 House seats from NY.

Good, maybe we can replace the useless IDC Democrats as well.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 28, 2017, 10:06:32 AM
Rasmussen

Total (-10):
45 (-/-)
55 (+1)

Strongly (-17):
27 (-1)
44 (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 28, 2017, 10:22:26 AM
The religion crosstabs in that poll are fishy.  Jews like Trump more than Protestants do?  Really?

Small N issues, no doubt.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 28, 2017, 12:02:40 PM
3/28 Gallup

Approve 36% (-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 28, 2017, 03:12:30 PM
Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)



SurveyMonkey, March 24-27 vs March 17-24 https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2017/03/28/exploring-trumps-approval-dip/

All Adults
42 (-/-)
57 (+2)

RV
42 (-2)
57 (+1)

()

()

()

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 28, 2017, 03:25:24 PM
Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on March 28, 2017, 03:51:28 PM
Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf

Looking at the crosstabs, that survey is skewed NOVA heavy. High education, high income, voting breakdown in the past election 50-37 Clinton when the actual vote was closer to 50-44. Trump voters are definitely being underrepresented in that poll.

On that other hand, many compelling arguments could be made that Trump voters will under-participate in the non-presidential election years and that the governor's race and 2018 elections in Virginia will be NOVA heavy, so I wouldn't necessarily write the poll off either.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on March 28, 2017, 04:03:24 PM
Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)

So, just to be clear, while all adults swung two points against Trump from their last poll, likely voters swung by 15. Am I missing something here? Basic MathsTM means that non-likely voters swung by almost three and a half points (3.41667) for Trump to counterbalance the LV swing. WTF?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on March 28, 2017, 04:09:49 PM
Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)

So, just to be clear, while all adults swung two points against Trump from their last poll, likely voters swung by 15. Am I missing something here? Basic MathsTM means that non-likely voters swung by almost three and a half points (3.41667) for Trump to counterbalance the LV swing. WTF?

Perhaps those who despise Trump but were otherwise unlikely to vote have been determined to be LVs, thus leaving the rest of the non-LV group more Trump-friendly?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on March 28, 2017, 04:38:35 PM
Ipsos March 23-27 vs March 18-22

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
45 (-1)
49 (+1)

LV, 500 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
42 (-9)
51 (+6)

So, just to be clear, while all adults swung two points against Trump from their last poll, likely voters swung by 15. Am I missing something here? Basic MathsTM means that non-likely voters swung by almost three and a half points (3.41667) for Trump to counterbalance the LV swing. WTF?

Perhaps those who despise Trump but were otherwise unlikely to vote have been determined to be LVs, thus leaving the rest of the non-LV group more Trump-friendly?

Even so, I can't see how that accounts for a 18 point difference between LVs and non-LVs.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 28, 2017, 05:09:04 PM
Well Ipsos sucks.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ebsy on March 28, 2017, 05:47:05 PM
Yeah as always, Ipsos tracking is garbage so any criticism of its results or methodology is likely to be accurate.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 28, 2017, 06:07:15 PM
Come on Ispos, Trump does not have 19% of Blacks approving of him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 28, 2017, 06:28:45 PM
Come on Ispos, Trump does not have 19% of Blacks approving of him.

SurveyMonkey produced that result, not Ipsos.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 28, 2017, 07:52:23 PM
Come on Ispos, Trump does not have 19% of Blacks approving of him.

SurveyMonkey produced that result, not Ipsos.

Oops. SurveyMonkey then.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on March 28, 2017, 10:01:24 PM
Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf

I love the highly educated!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on March 29, 2017, 06:07:30 AM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like you missed this poll, pbrower2a.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 29, 2017, 07:12:32 AM
47% of Americans believe that Trump Tower was wiretapped.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/847058282078461952


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 29, 2017, 07:36:39 AM
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-health-care-trump-approval-russia-election-meddling-cbs-news-poll/

March 25-28, 2017 among a random sample of 1,088 adults nationwide.

()


()


()


()


()


()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 29, 2017, 08:49:08 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 24-25:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b4-dd0d-a1df-77b719a00001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b2-d8ae-addf-97b790780000

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -1
Northeast: -4
South: -1
West: -12

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -13

13% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  15% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on March 29, 2017, 08:51:48 AM
Keep in mind, Morning Consult's last poll had Trump up 6.  This is their first poll where he's negative.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 29, 2017, 09:17:43 AM
Morning Consult RV, March 24-25 vs 16-19


45% (-5)
50% (+6)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 29, 2017, 09:20:15 AM
"Butbutbutbut Morning Insult must be a Dummycrat poll, they had Matt Bevin with 32% lolololol!"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 29, 2017, 10:01:27 AM
Siena poll of New York: (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0317_Crosstabs679.pdf)

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like you missed this poll, pbrower2a.

It wouldn't change the map.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 29, 2017, 11:03:59 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 24-25:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b4-dd0d-a1df-77b719a00001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b2-d8ae-addf-97b790780000

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -1
Northeast: -4
South: -1
West: -12

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -13

13% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  15% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Interesting. He's slightly underwater in the South and that's the first time I've seen that.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 29, 2017, 12:01:35 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 29, 2017, 12:02:14 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!
Hahahahahahahaha


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 29, 2017, 12:26:59 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

:o


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 29, 2017, 12:39:15 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

"He's a good prez,
loves Ivanka,
loves Jesus,
and America too.

He's a good prez,
crazy about Fox News,
loves winning,
and Melania too..."


()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 29, 2017, 12:42:46 PM
Hahaha only 8% away from Bush's low point?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 29, 2017, 12:43:36 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 24-25:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b4-dd0d-a1df-77b719a00001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b2-d8ae-addf-97b790780000

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -1
Northeast: -4
South: -1
West: -12

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -13

13% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  15% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Interesting. He's slightly underwater in the South and that's the first time I've seen that.

It's the first time I've seen that on job approval.  There were some pre-inauguration polls that did have him underwater in the South on *favorability* though.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on March 29, 2017, 12:54:28 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!
https://youtu.be/1lWJXDG2i0A?t=64


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on March 29, 2017, 01:13:14 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

The plot thickens


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 29, 2017, 01:14:55 PM
Excellent. The worse it gets, the more dysfunction between the WH and Congress.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: yankeesfan on March 29, 2017, 02:01:34 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Thank you, Gallup!  Beautiful poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 29, 2017, 02:12:24 PM
New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny03292017_Nt34fmbx.pdf/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 29, 2017, 02:20:31 PM
New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny03292017_Nt34fmbx.pdf/

Matches the Siena poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Doimper on March 29, 2017, 02:24:22 PM
When will the winning stop


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 29, 2017, 03:06:31 PM

Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bojack Horseman on March 29, 2017, 03:09:08 PM
Of the Presidents who most recently lost reelection, these are their job approval graphs:

()

()

()

If his approval rating stays this low, it's not hard to see catastrophic losses in governorships and in the House for Republicans.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on March 29, 2017, 03:11:14 PM

We all care, thats why we're on a forum centered around polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 29, 2017, 03:12:53 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 29, 2017, 04:05:35 PM
According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

The only candidate that became president with favorability rating under 35%:
Trump  :P



Yougov MARCH 26-28 vs MARCH 19-21 

All Adults, 1500
41 (-/-)
47 (+1)


RV, 1300
45 (+1)
50 (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on March 29, 2017, 04:40:56 PM
According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

The only candidate that became president with favorability rating under 35%:
Trump  :P


While true, he started his presidency in the mid 40%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 29, 2017, 05:41:54 PM
538 added a new feature to their tracker. Trump vs former Presidents. Cool!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 29, 2017, 05:47:00 PM
538 added a new feature to their tracker. Trump vs former Presidents. Cool!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical

()
So the only other president who Trump comes close to is Ford........boy that is some winning


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 29, 2017, 05:57:08 PM
It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 29, 2017, 05:58:51 PM
It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.

Does "last stand" imply that they're at risk of dying as a political entity?  If so, I disagree with that premise.  Both parties have been in awful shape in recent history, and have still been able to come back as strong as ever.  I would say that we should begin evaluating whether Democrats are dying if Republicans start getting 40% of the Latino vote, 20% of the black vote, and control all three branches of government in 2022.  Not sooner than then, though.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 29, 2017, 05:59:50 PM
My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 29, 2017, 06:09:43 PM
My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?


()

That doesn't answer my question.  :)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on March 29, 2017, 07:10:05 PM
Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Have the strongly dissapproves broken 50% yet?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 29, 2017, 07:14:17 PM
My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?


()

That doesn't answer my question.  :)


Well...Trump is an anomaly...nobody has ever had low ratings this early on so all we can do is speculate that it will remain in the 30s.

But that is what I'm questioning, about it remaining in the 30s.  Yes, I realize that Trump is outside the range of previous presidents at this point in their terms.  But within the range taken by previous presidents, what is the correlation coefficient between their job approval at this early stage and their job approval at the time of the midterms (and at their reelection)?  And if the correlation is low, at what point does the correlation become high?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 29, 2017, 08:25:04 PM
Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 29, 2017, 08:31:05 PM
Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.

And this is at the beginning of his term with a good economy. If there is any economic downturn, that high disapproval rate will solidify and tumble more.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on March 29, 2017, 08:39:49 PM
Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.

And this is at the beginning of his term with a good economy. If there is any economic downturn, that high disapproval rate will solidify and tumble more.

Probably, but not neccessarily. One of the problems from Trump's POV at the moment is that things are too quiet. He comes off as someone who thrives when things are in the sh**tter; maybe he could use such a situation to his advantage.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 29, 2017, 08:53:08 PM
PPP national poll of RVs:

Approve 40% (-3)
Disapprove 53% (+3)

They'll have the full results out tomorrow.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 29, 2017, 09:09:40 PM
It is definitely time for the Democrats to make their comeback or last stand.

Does "last stand" imply that they're at risk of dying as a political entity?  If so, I disagree with that premise.  Both parties have been in awful shape in recent history, and have still been able to come back as strong as ever.  I would say that we should begin evaluating whether Democrats are dying if Republicans start getting 40% of the Latino vote, 20% of the black vote, and control all three branches of government in 2022.  Not sooner than then, though.

That will happen if Democrats can't deliver. They have to deliver or die if the Republicans now have so little credibility. What do you say of an opposition that is not effective against such an unpopular establishment? There is opportunity now, but the opposition must deliver


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 29, 2017, 11:19:00 PM
So basically with Gallup it's this?


(
)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 29, 2017, 11:25:38 PM

Remove MS, LA, TN and maybe ID, yeah.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 29, 2017, 11:52:20 PM

Just did a universal swing from 2016. See nothing delusional about it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 29, 2017, 11:53:57 PM

Come on, man. 35% is horribly low. It's not that the map will look like that, but his approvals are around there.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 30, 2017, 12:12:56 AM

1.) Universal swing isn't a thing, especially since I guess he is much more unpopular in states like CA than in KS. If he's at 70% disapproval in CA and NY, that explains a lot.
2.) You're focusing on one poll (Gallup) and ignoring others (PPP, etc.).
3.) The election is more than three years away. We don't even know who the Democratic candidate will be.
4.) Democrats aren't winning in Tennessee or Kansas.

@Arch: I definitely agree that his numbers are awful (unsurprisingly) - and I disapprove of his presidency as well -, but this map is just nonsense. These landslides are unlikely to happen in a polarized country.


Most likely, he will lose the trifecta next year and that will balance things out to where he wins by a similar margin as in 2016 in 2020...or the fact he will still most likely have the senate will cause him to lose by about half the margin the polls currently suggest. I see him losing all the states he didn't win by double digits save maybe SC for Iowa. Either this or he is gone before 2020 or the country has moved too far to the right to ever not vote Republican.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 30, 2017, 12:24:54 AM

1.) Universal swing isn't a thing, especially since I guess he is much more unpopular in states like CA than in KS. If he's at 70% disapproval in CA and NY, that explains a lot.
2.) You're focusing on one poll (Gallup) and ignoring others (PPP, etc.).
3.) The election is more than three years away. We don't even know who the Democratic candidate will be.
4.) Democrats aren't winning in Tennessee or Kansas.

@Arch: I definitely agree that his numbers are awful (unsurprisingly) - and I disapprove of his presidency as well -, but this map is just nonsense. These landslides are unlikely to happen in a polarized country.

Jesus, do you read anything before posting? I said Gallup at the top (Which has been doing approvals of presidents for quite some time now) of my post, and secondly this in an approval map...idiot.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 30, 2017, 12:33:01 AM
Yeah it was quite clearly an approval map, but with the right candidate and a similar approval rating, I could see Kansas going Democratic. Certainly before Missouri or Indiana.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 30, 2017, 02:51:56 AM
It's just a stupid map based off a stupid poll.

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on March 30, 2017, 07:06:40 AM
Gallup has been consistently the most bearish on Trump. So take it accordingly. The Silver Aggregate has him down 53-41, which is a better sense of where he is. I doubt very much that he's at 35% (requiring a 25% collapse among his voters).

He's probably underwater heavily in deep blue states and underwater in purple states and positive in red states.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 30, 2017, 09:30:25 AM
Rasmussen

Total, -12
44 (-/-)
56 (-/-)

Strongly, -17
27 (-/-)
44 (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2017, 10:20:11 AM
The '44' that Rasmussen suggests puts Trump within range of winning the Presidency -- but the '56' says that it is out of reach.

No undecided? Aren't there some people in transition  in their views of him?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 30, 2017, 10:26:14 AM
PPP national poll (3/27-3/28): (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf)
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 30, 2017, 10:40:13 AM
PPP national poll (3/27-3/28): (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf)
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 53%

Another "all time low" for a pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2017, 10:52:21 AM
The only good news for Trump is that Americans prefer him to Mike Pence. Insurance against impeachment, I suppose.

On Trump:

honest/dishonest 39/55
non-liar/liar 44/50
do not release/release tax returns 33/61
not divest/divest 30/64
the wall with Mexico 37/55

impeach or not -- practically even

Others:

Russia 13/64
Putin 9/72
Konnelsky 19/54 ("Mc" and "sky" are both patronymics -- get it?)
Ryan 21/64

Congress itself 11-68

Congressional ballot, 2018:  48-43 edge Democratic

Trust Obama (53) or Trump (42)

Trump loses badly to Biden, Sanders; Franken, Booker, and Warren already have edges.

  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 30, 2017, 12:01:18 PM
Gallup

Approve 38% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 30, 2017, 12:01:50 PM
Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on March 30, 2017, 12:07:35 PM
Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s

And somewhere out there someone is probably thinking that. It definitely is amusing how Trump is losing so much that he probably will move the "successful approval" goalposts somewhere in the 40s - the only numbers he seems able to sustain for any reasonable period of time (so far)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 30, 2017, 04:19:57 PM
icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 30, 2017, 04:21:57 PM
icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)

Holy sh*t


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 30, 2017, 04:24:24 PM
icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)

Yeah I don't think so, but there's a clear trend among all pollsters within the last few weeks. It is interesting but also sad that healthcare is one of the few issues that actually moves the needle in this country.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on March 30, 2017, 05:14:59 PM
FDU poll of New Jersey:
 (http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2017/170330/)
Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 30, 2017, 05:50:37 PM
FDU poll of New Jersey:
 (http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2017/170330/)
Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Bahahahaha Bush level collapse confirmed.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2017, 09:49:42 PM
Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf

New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny03292017_Nt34fmbx.pdf/

Matches the Siena poll.

Virginia:

Another poll of Virginia, ratifying what looked like an outlier. President Trump did lose Virginia, but nothing like this. Add 6% to the approval rating, and he gets only 43% of the binary vote in Virginia. Should Donald Trump get that little of the vote  in 2020 he would under-perform Goldwater in Virginia.


If there should be another statewide poll tomorrow morning, I will simply add it.

New York:

This is not the state that I most wanted to see a poll from (Ohio), but it gives me an unambiguous statement on approval of the President.  I dislike the "excellent-good-fair-poor" division because the word "fair" can have positive connotations.  "Fair" playing of the violin by a seven-year-old child is remarkable. "Fair" playing of a violin by an adult isn't so remarkable. 

This is down in the range of approvals that I have seen for President Obama in such states as Oklahoma and Wyoming. One of the states that knows the President best likes him least.


Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Jack Benny's violin playing was more appealing than this Presidency. (Actually he simply played a violin out of tune; his technique was good enough).

FDU poll of New Jersey:
 (http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2017/170330/)
Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Really, really awful in what is probably the state in which he is second-best known. Nothing for Connecticut, yet, which would complete the Tri-State.




Favorability:

(
)


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on March 30, 2017, 10:00:52 PM
Below 30% in Democratic states, above 40% in Republican states, and in the 30's everywhere else.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on March 30, 2017, 10:21:15 PM
FDU poll of New Jersey:
 (http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2017/170330/)
Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Revenge of the Muslims cheering on 9/11.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on March 31, 2017, 02:51:06 AM
If I had to guess where Trump is at right now based on an average of polls, then I'd say something like this. If the hemorrhaging shown in some polls is correct, then I'd expect a disproportionate share of it is coming from places where he over-performed relative to 2008/2012 (Midwest/Rust Belt/even parts of Appalachia). This would put him at majority disapproval in around 30 states; net disapproval in all but a dozen or so.

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on March 31, 2017, 04:07:04 AM
At this point, it wouldn't be surprising to see Trump slightly above or even slightly underwater in MS. :P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on March 31, 2017, 06:54:06 AM
AP poll (https://apnews.com/bfd67aecb10c4a91b9c15680e0cd1fe9/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-disapprove-of-Trump,-except-on-economy?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics):  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 31, 2017, 07:27:36 AM
AP poll (https://apnews.com/bfd67aecb10c4a91b9c15680e0cd1fe9/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-disapprove-of-Trump,-except-on-economy?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics):  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.
Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if".

Do you think that Trumps deregulation are good or bad for the economy? At least in sportterm they are probably good. So I'd say that the probability of recession before 2020 is pretty low.

So what would happen if there is no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs? Democrats and media went all-in that Trump's presidency will be a disaster. What if they "slightly" exaggerated it...

Yeah, then no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs will be just enough for a reelection.

And if he somehow manages to pass "infrastructure spending"-bill...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 31, 2017, 07:34:02 AM
AP poll (https://apnews.com/bfd67aecb10c4a91b9c15680e0cd1fe9/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-disapprove-of-Trump,-except-on-economy?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics):  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.
Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if".

Do you think that Trumps deregulation are good or bad for the economy? At least in sportterm they are probably good. So I'd say that the probability of recession before 2020 is pretty low.

So what would happen if there is no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs? Democrats and media went all-in that Trump's presidency will be a disaster. What if they "slightly" exaggerated it...

Yeah, then no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs will be just enough for a reelection.

Elections aren't determined by what the opposition says... the opposition will always say that things are bad. Elections are determined by how satisfied voters are with their lives... and when they're not they will agree with the opposition.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on March 31, 2017, 08:48:40 AM
AP poll (https://apnews.com/bfd67aecb10c4a91b9c15680e0cd1fe9/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-disapprove-of-Trump,-except-on-economy?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics):  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.
Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if"

Actually not a big if at all. It's called the business cycle.

We get a recession once every ten years. Last one was 2010. We're on schedule for one by 2020 at the latest. Why Trumpy is trying for anti-recessionary measures before the recession is kind of curious to me.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on March 31, 2017, 09:11:54 AM
What regions would be the holdout for Trump approvals if recession hits? I'd say Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho, but those might go underwater too.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2017, 09:16:27 AM
With polls of only 20 states, I could now project that of states that Trump won that Obama won in 2012, he would have a chance only in Ohio -- and only because I have no polls of Ohio yet. At this stage approval and favorability are close. He could lose Arizona and North Carolina. This is with the generous allowance of adding six points to the approval rating of an elected incumbent and assuming that things will not get worse for his Presidency.

With that, he barely wins Texas. That's enough to keep him from losing as badly as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1976. But if he bumbles badly enough, he can lose Texas and end up with 100 or fewer electoral votes in 2020.

It is unfortunate that we do not have a general poll -- even an internet poll -- of the 50 states.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 31, 2017, 09:23:29 AM
Rassmussen
57% Disapprove
43% Approve

 28% Strongly Approve
 47% Strongly Disapprove.

 This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

The collapse continues.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2017, 09:28:19 AM
AP poll (https://apnews.com/bfd67aecb10c4a91b9c15680e0cd1fe9/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-disapprove-of-Trump,-except-on-economy?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics):  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

It's still the Obama economy.

Quote
Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

People gave Hoover a chance for a few months in 1930. But Hoover at least had a moral compass -- just outmoded ideas on how to manage an economy. Like Trump, Hoover was the answer at the time to the question "how would government run if an honest-to-Mammon businessman ran it?"  

Quote
The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

He will have plenty of scapegoats, and until at least November 2018 he will blame people for not making big enough sacrifices on behalf of the economic elites from whom (allegedly) all blessings flow. Donald Trump is not a small-government right-winger; he is a big-government right-winger. He will put profits first, trying to make life more costly by adding more layers of profit which protectionist economics allow.  

The base is not enough. Dewey in 1948, Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern, Carter in 1980, and Mondale got their parties' bases, if nothing else.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on March 31, 2017, 09:39:49 AM
AP poll (https://apnews.com/bfd67aecb10c4a91b9c15680e0cd1fe9/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-disapprove-of-Trump,-except-on-economy?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics):  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

It's still the Obama economy.

Quote
Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

People gave Hoover a chance for a few months in 1930. But Hoover at least had a moral compass -- just outmoded ideas on how to manage an economy. Like Trump, Hoover was the answer at the time to the question "how would government run if an honest-to-Mammon business run things?"  

Quote
The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

He will have plenty of scapegoats, and until at least November 2018 he will blame people for not making big enough sacrifices on behalf of the economic elites from whom (allegedly) all blessings flow. Donald Trump is not a small-government right-winger; he is a big-government right-winger. He will put profits first, trying to make life more costly by adding more layers of profit which protectionist economics allow.  

The base is not enough. Dewey in 1948, Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern, Carter in 1980, and Mondale got their parties' bases, if nothing else.  

This is an important distinction, and one that many Trump voters have always failed to see (or chosen to overlook).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on March 31, 2017, 10:20:00 AM
Quote
It's still the Obama economy.

Sure but people transferred their approval of the economy from Obama to Trumpy. Not an uncommon political occurrence. It's why Trumpy eagerly took credit for the 298k jobs created in February.

Quote
People gave Hoover a chance for a few months in 1930. But Hoover at least had a moral compass -- just outmoded ideas on how to manage an economy. Like Trump, Hoover was the answer at the time to the question "how would government run if an honest-to-Mammon business run things?" 

Not sure what that has to do with my point. Yes, Trumpy's people will rurn on him when we hit a recession -- but it simply means their lives were not improved by Trump. They're tolerating all the crap in the belief Trump will deliver meaningful economic growth to their areas and boost wages.

Quote
He will have plenty of scapegoats, and until at least November 2018 he will blame people for not making big enough sacrifices on behalf of the economic elites from whom (allegedly) all blessings flow. Donald Trump is not a small-government right-winger; he is a big-government right-winger. He will put profits first, trying to make life more costly by adding more layers of profit which protectionist economics allow.   

The base is not enough. Dewey in 1948, Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern, Carter in 1980, and Mondale got their parties' bases, if nothing else. 

Let's get one thing right. Trump is a traditional Republican president wrapped up in an authoritarian and faux populist foil. If he were anything near what he campaigned on he wouldn't be gutting student loans, backing changes to Medicaid, and all these small things. Trump is a captive of the dominant neoliberal ruling Republican establishment because he doesn't have the political capital to stand on his own.

Presidents are expected to deliver. He won't. His supporters will - like his shareholders in his bankruptcy cases and casinos - abandon him. The question is operationally will he leave at the right moment and deflect blame onto Pence down the road for all the crap happening will he be removed from power via impeachment?

Anyway lets not derail the polling thread. Just my two cents.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on March 31, 2017, 10:34:01 AM
What regions would be the holdout for Trump approvals if recession hits? I'd say Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho, but those might go underwater too.

Probably the Southern states of AL, LA, AR, OK, TN, KY and possibly SC in addition to WV, the Dakotas, Wyoming and Idaho. Maybe Nebraska. I think his base is too large in those states that even in the event of recession, he'd still be > breakeven, but barely so.


I'm suspicious of the idea that he would be above water in that many states in that circumstance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 31, 2017, 10:36:43 AM
I can't imagine he's above water here, at least if you consider the white working class his "base", which is absurd on its face.

I know someone - a white male - who is in his 60s and retired from a blue-collar job not too long ago. He says Trump is "beyond horrible."


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 31, 2017, 10:50:50 AM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on March 31, 2017, 10:56:17 AM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%



Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on March 31, 2017, 11:04:10 AM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: windjammer on March 31, 2017, 11:25:10 AM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.
I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 31, 2017, 11:31:13 AM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.
I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

Usually, higher turnout demos favor the GOP (college educated voters in particular). If that trend has indeed reversed, then a lot of these gerrymanders will be bad news bears for the GOP.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 31, 2017, 12:03:28 PM
Gallup:

Approval: 38% (nc)
Disapproval: 56% (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2017, 12:44:29 PM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%



Republicans in Congress have done plenty to hurt themselves lately. They no longer have the excuse "But Obama!"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 31, 2017, 01:50:46 PM
Ipsos, MARCH 26-30 vs MARCH 21-25

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
46 (-/-)
47 (-2)


LV,
400 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
43 (-3)
50 (+1)

It seems like Ipsos has 2 independent samples ???


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 31, 2017, 02:13:16 PM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -31
South: -7
West: -11

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -2
blacks: -88
Hispanics: -23

white college graduate: -22
white not college graduate: +15

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -20
over $50k: -9


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 31, 2017, 02:52:50 PM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.
I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

I actually looked at the tipping point House seat in 2016, and compared to the comparable situation in 2004 (which was the House election preceding the Dem. takeover of 2006).  The structural problem for the Dems in the 2010s seems to be pretty bad, and has gotten worse than it was in the 2000s.  The tipping point seat this time around was Mia Love’s seat, and she won by 12.5 points.  This compares to the national margin in the House, which was GOP by 1.1 points.  That suggests that if there was a uniform swing, you’d need to have the Dems win nationally by more than 11 points in order to take back the House.  There just aren’t that many seats that the GOP won this time by single digit margins, so you need a big swing for them to lose the House.

Of course, there won’t be a uniform swing, so maybe the Dems can count on a larger than expected share of the swing taking place in competitive districts.  I looked back at the 2004 election, and if you do the same analysis there, you would predict that the Dems would have needed a 7.7 point national victory margin in 2006 to take the House.  They ended up winning it with an 8.0 point margin, but that was with winning 15 more seats than they actually needed, so the prediction based on a uniform swing from the past election overestimated how much work they needed to do, and it might be the same for 2018.  But I still wouldn’t count on anything less than at least a high single digit popular vote margin of victory being sufficient.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on March 31, 2017, 03:18:15 PM
Ds path to the majority may result from successive gains in '18 & '20 rather than taking it all back in one cycle. Maybe 15-20 seats in 2018 and another 10 or so in 2020.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 31, 2017, 03:24:59 PM
I think what is being lost on everyone is it's still only the first 100 days. This could get real ugly


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2017, 04:55:49 PM
I think what is being lost on everyone is it's still only the first 100 days. This could get real ugly

Right. This is when you offer policies that excite your base and when you offer the opposition deals that they can't refuse. Having despised the President from the moment that he announced his Presidential aspirations,  I obviously can't speak for Trump supporters. But I can see him as a failure.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 01, 2017, 08:47:20 AM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.
I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

I actually looked at the tipping point House seat in 2016, and compared to the comparable situation in 2004 (which was the House election preceding the Dem. takeover of 2006).  The structural problem for the Dems in the 2010s seems to be pretty bad, and has gotten worse than it was in the 2000s.  The tipping point seat this time around was Mia Love’s seat, and she won by 12.5 points.  This compares to the national margin in the House, which was GOP by 1.1 points.  That suggests that if there was a uniform swing, you’d need to have the Dems win nationally by more than 11 points in order to take back the House.  There just aren’t that many seats that the GOP won this time by single digit margins, so you need a big swing for them to lose the House.

Of course, there won’t be a uniform swing, so maybe the Dems can count on a larger than expected share of the swing taking place in competitive districts.  I looked back at the 2004 election, and if you do the same analysis there, you would predict that the Dems would have needed a 7.7 point national victory margin in 2006 to take the House.  They ended up winning it with an 8.0 point margin, but that was with winning 15 more seats than they actually needed, so the prediction based on a uniform swing from the past election overestimated how much work they needed to do, and it might be the same for 2018.  But I still wouldn’t count on anything less than at least a high single digit popular vote margin of victory being sufficient.


It could cause a situation of a lot of civil unrest if it becomes the case that the government gets reelected and elected despite losing by wide or at least clear and convincing margins. At that point, It would just take a really bad recession to push this country over the edge. Poll after poll seems to hint at that.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 01, 2017, 09:14:15 AM
Gerrymandering ensures that Democrats need a huge advantage in the popular vote to have a chance to flip the House -- almost 10%. Perhaps our President will fail so horribly as President that people will vote Democratic in 2018 just to check a President showing despotic tendencies. 



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 01, 2017, 11:03:23 AM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55






Favorability:

(
)


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 01, 2017, 11:21:19 AM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55






Favorability:

(
)


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


This just confirms two possibilities at this rate-

The pendulum is swings back again

We are entering a period of decline and potentially institutional extinction over the long but sooner than you think future as an incompetent conservative Government perpetually stays one step ahead electorally of an incompetent liberal Opposition. See Britain the last 7 years and over there, the disaster just keeps getting worse and worse. That country is literally falling apart as it is being run to the ground aided partially by an even less capable opposition. The people over there are literally being cucked hand over foot! 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 01, 2017, 11:25:34 AM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on April 01, 2017, 11:31:35 AM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?
April Fools


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on April 01, 2017, 11:38:21 AM
I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on April 01, 2017, 11:47:06 AM
I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.

"Septic Polling Associates"
heh


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 01, 2017, 12:06:47 PM
Gallup

40 (+2)
56 (-/-)



I wonder if it is Trump's new average. 39% ±3


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on April 01, 2017, 12:34:13 PM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arprooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Thanks. The House and probably even Senate flipping in 2018 is basically a given at this point. I'd like to see a Missouri poll to see if McCaskill's race is Safe or Likely D, though.
Safe?! It's Titanium D. Plus Sununu will win for sure, so NH is TITANIUM R.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 01, 2017, 01:01:18 PM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?
April Fools

lol couldn't tell cause it's pbrower


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 01, 2017, 02:55:36 PM
From the Loof-Lipra polling service:

Trump approval/disapproval -- 44/44 (Georgia), 38/64 (Minnesota), 42/52 (Ohio)

Septic Polling Associates, 30/65 Illinois. Same for both approval and favorability.

FxO News poll. Inniada. 43-43.

Quipinniac, Connecticut. 22-70 Approval and favorability.

Matt Dillon High School, Dodge City, Kansas. Kansas: Trump arpooval 41, dssaprooval 55

Um... links please?
April Fools

lol couldn't tell cause it's pbrower

Look at the pollster names; they're a bit of a giveaway. Fxo instead of Fox, Quipinniac instead of Quinnipiac, etc.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 01, 2017, 11:32:56 PM
Four more from Loof-Lipra, both involving the West.

Alaska 45-52
Montana 42-47
Nevada 39-63

Nebraska, statewide 43-43
District #1 missing
District #2 43-47
District #3 60-37

Septic Polling Associates,
North Dakota 43-37
South Dakota same

I finally have a link here (http://-https://liveagle.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/April-Fools-DP-Profile-pictures-3.jpg)






Favorability:

(
)


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2017, 09:01:56 AM
Moderator: you are welcome to move the April Fools' jokes (including the fake polls that I made yesterday and their responses) to a new or existing thread suited  to such levity. The misspellings were intended as clues.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: CapoteMonster on April 02, 2017, 12:04:54 PM
Down to 38 in Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 02, 2017, 02:55:20 PM
Down to 38 in Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

Stabilizing around -15-20? That could be good-ish and bad news for him at the same time.

That is probably where we will be with a healthy economy. This is where Bush was before things got reallt bad for us all.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2017, 03:00:50 PM
Down to 38 in Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

Stabilizing around -15-20? That could be good-ish and bad news for him at the same time.

The good news is that he is stabilizing at a level above that in which a military coup is possible. The bad news is that he has badly damaged his credibility as President; he  may have inflicted the sort of gridlock that we have had with Obama as President and Republicans in control of both Houses of Congress. The other bad news is that he could be taking at the least his House majority down with him and putting many Republican state houses in peril while doing nothing to gain what might otherwise be vulnerable Senate seats now in Democratic hands (as in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which he flipped from D to R in the Presidential election of 2016.  

Let there be an economic downturn or some overseas calamity, and he could have a Presidency remembered longest for ending as those of Hoover or Carter. So far we are stuck with the Obama economy and the Obama foreign policy, and I can easily imagine far worse than either.

Approval in the 38% range is likely to remain stable in view of the paucity of his achievements and his many objectionable deeds. If I were  one of his advisers I would tell him to stop using Twitter, with which he achieves nothing except to rile his opposition.      


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2017, 03:47:34 PM
Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 02, 2017, 05:26:27 PM
Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.


You mean a situation where there are constant protests, police "no go" zones in most cities and suburbs, and Germany and France doing what Russia did last year?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 02, 2017, 11:29:15 PM
Jesus, do you read anything before posting? I said Gallup at the top (Which has been doing approvals of presidents for quite some time now) of my post, and secondly this in an approval map...idiot.

You basically just proved my point: You're focusing on that Gallup poll, take it as Gospel truth and ignore other polls, which goes against the point of an approval thread (re: "and secondly this in an approval map"). So no... I'm not the one who has issues with reading comprehension. As for the "idiot" thing... well, there's this thing called projection. Given the fact that you think "universal swing" is a thing, you should probably be more careful with throwing around this term.

Sorry for derailing this thread, but it's unbelievable that people here are predicting the demise of the Republican Party and Democratic landslide victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022 based on approval numbers in March 2017. That's it from me.

Some type of average for every state would be good. I didn't find something like that on RCP, maybe someone has a link or could create one.

Is it really unreasonable to expect a backlash of some sort against a party whose President is sitting in the 30's fairly consistently? I don't think so. Fwiw, I feel like the backlash will be mainly concentrated in swing/blue/pink states in 2017-18, not so much in deep red states outside of state-specific fluky gubernatorial elections in places like CT, AL, and KS where I think the out party has a considerable opportunity. We haven't had something like this since W's second term. And the economy is good right now, which makes it all the more mind-blowing.
I don't think a Democrat could win the AL Governorship at this point. Yes KS has had Dem Governors in the past(Finney and Sebelius.)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 02, 2017, 11:39:53 PM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -31
South: -7
West: -11

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -2
blacks: -88
Hispanics: -23

white college graduate: -22
white not college graduate: +15

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -20
over $50k: -9

Trumps approvals with Whites and Hispanics are surprisingly pretty close in this poll.

His numbers are bad with White College Graduates though at -22.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 02, 2017, 11:41:48 PM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -31
South: -7
West: -11

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -2
blacks: -88
Hispanics: -23

white college graduate: -22
white not college graduate: +15

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -20
over $50k: -9

Trumps approvals with Whites and Hispanics are surprisingly pretty close in this poll.

His numbers are bad with White College Graduates though at -22.

Probably the new emerging coalition that will flip congress over his incumbency. GA-6 is important to see whether this is already materializing early.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 02, 2017, 11:42:34 PM
McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27): (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3532285-McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the.html#document/p1)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%



Republicans in Congress have done plenty to hurt themselves lately. They no longer have the excuse "But Obama!"
Not really Congressional Republicans but this current Presidential Administration has been chaotic with the Russia Investigation hanging over their heads currently.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 02, 2017, 11:45:49 PM
I would guess that Kansas poll, if true, would indicate that the KS-GOV is going to be very interesting and that KS-03 is getting spooky fast. KS-02 and KS-04 would both be likely R instead of safe R. IL-GOV and NM-GOV are gone for the Republicans, Likely-D verging on safe-D.

Donnelly is still going to be able to hold on if Indiana is tied in approval. They love ticket splitting and will believe giving Donnelly a second term will be a check on Trump.

Although I was probably overconfident in my earlier gubernatorial predictions for the situation as it was known a few days ago, it may actually come to fruition with how the Republicans are doing. Doubly so if the upland south experiences less-than-expected economic growth and thus causes one of his main regional base to desert. I think that Idaho and Wyoming will be his holdout for approval. Deep South has black people, meaning a relatively weak defection of whites to disapprove would put him underwater. The Upland South is doing badly economically, and the blame may get shifted to Trump from Obama if recession hits(same with North Dakota). The states of Wyoming and Idaho are rural enough and economically conservative enough that he would have to be in the process of impeachment with actual incriminating evidence for him to go underwater there.

Sidenote, imagine if Connecticut went 70-28 against Trump.

Basically, the GOP is in for a nightmare of GOP wave 2014 to Democratic wave 2018 with losses by repubs that make the Democrats problems in 2010 look small.

They can get out of this, it's still early, but it's unlikely because Trump doesn't have governing experience.
The thing is Trump is nowhere near as likeable as Obama was.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 02, 2017, 11:59:04 PM
Gallup:
38 (+3)/57(+2) Oh no here comes his momentum back/s

And somewhere out there someone is probably thinking that. It definitely is amusing how Trump is losing so much that he probably will move the "successful approval" goalposts somewhere in the 40s - the only numbers he seems able to sustain for any reasonable period of time (so far)
I have though about this and I think Trump's approval ceiling and floor are pretty close.
He only got 46% of the popular vote so his approvals will probably stay in the high 30's/low-mid 40's rage.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2017, 12:11:51 AM
Or... in the range in which people can tolerate his failure for an extended time. Democrats may be thinking "this is the price we pay for making big gains in Congress and state legislatures, and we get big rewards in 2020 for putting up with a President that we despise."

If it gets much worse we have the possibility of mass unrest with horrible consequences for the economy and foreign policy. There are countries with excellent intelligence services that could be extremely hostile to President Trump, especially should he start governing far more like a dictator than he does now. A hint: some of these countries have alliances with the USA.


You mean a situation where there are constant protests, police "no go" zones in most cities and suburbs, and Germany and France doing what Russia did last year?

Protests and strikes. The strikes will begin when the Republicans outlaw unions or make dealing with them 'voluntary only' at the discretion of companies.  "No-go" zones for the police? Not necessary. The President will be giving orders that nobody wants to obey.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 03, 2017, 09:01:01 AM
New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 03, 2017, 09:03:05 AM
New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)

Ras is almost in line with Gallup at this point, quite telling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2017, 10:30:04 AM
Don't know how significant it is, but the fact that 15% somewhat approve whereas only 12% somewhat disapprove might indicate he has more room to fall than rise.

People go one step or the other at a time.

strong disapproval<>some disapproval<>undecided or neutral<>some approval<>strong approval

Some people with unstable minds might make a jump, but there aren't that many unstable people under normal situations. A catastrophe might send someone from strong approval to strong disapproval, but such is not normal politics. 

I am tempted to believe that strong disapproval is the stickiest position for anyone. Few people steadily become more sympathetic to tornadoes, rattlesnakes, Stalinism, or the Klan.   President Trump isn't quite in that category, but undoing the ill will that he has engendered will be extremely difficult if at all possible. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 03, 2017, 10:32:17 AM
Some people with unstable minds might make a jump, but there aren't that many unstable people under normal situations. A catastrophe might send someone from strong approval to strong disapproval, but such is not normal politics.

I'm not so sure if big jumps are that uncommon. When Bill Clinton endorsed school uniforms, I made a pretty big jump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2017, 11:05:43 AM
New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)

The cheerleader pollster is beginning to recognize that the team it cheers is down 30-0  in the first quarter and the quarterback has neither a clue nor protection. When you throw short passes on 3rd-and-30 plays and get intercepted for runback touchdowns by the defensive team, nothing is working and the cheerleaders figure that out fast.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 03, 2017, 11:30:34 AM
SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Mar. 24-30:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfUUw4dVVaMTc2bm8/view

Trump approve / disapprove:

adults: 42/56% for -14%
RVs: 43/57% for -14%

men: -1
women: -26
whites: +2
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -46

white college grad: -24
white non-college grad: +14
non-white college grad: -50
non-white non-college grad: -42


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 03, 2017, 12:19:06 PM
Gallup: 38(nc)/57(+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on April 03, 2017, 12:43:10 PM
Actually his disapproval went up a point.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 03, 2017, 12:44:10 PM
Oh I misread the graph thanks


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on April 03, 2017, 12:56:29 PM
Trump now at a net -13.2 on the RCP average.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 03, 2017, 01:05:25 PM
IBD/TIPP (3/24 - 3/30) (http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-plunges-amid-russia-inquiry-obamacare-repeal-failure-ibdtipp-poll/)

Approval: 34%
Disapproval: 56%

Yikes?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 03, 2017, 01:05:30 PM

Not sure what y'all are talking about. He is at 38/57 no change:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on April 03, 2017, 01:08:03 PM

Not sure what y'all are talking about. He is at 38/57 no change:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx
Oh, I see, his disapproval went up by one on the first.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 03, 2017, 01:14:05 PM
IBD/TIPP (3/24 - 3/30) (http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-plunges-amid-russia-inquiry-obamacare-repeal-failure-ibdtipp-poll/)

Approval: 34%
Disapproval: 56%

Yikes?

Wowza. So now at least more than one pollster has already hit the low 30s.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 03, 2017, 01:29:21 PM
Real Clear Politics Average:

40.1 Approval
53.3 Disapproval
-13.2 Net

HuffPost Pollster Average:

39.6 Approval
56.0 Disapproval
-16.4 Net

538 Average:

39.8 Approval
53.6 Disapproval
-13.8 Net

Average of the Averages:

39.8 Approval
54.3 Disapproval
-14.5 Net


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2017, 01:54:26 PM
IBD/TIPP (3/24 - 3/30) (http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-plunges-amid-russia-inquiry-obamacare-repeal-failure-ibdtipp-poll/)

Approval: 34%
Disapproval: 56%

Yikes?

Wowza. So now at least more than one pollster has already hit the low 30s.

Analogues for an incumbent President with such a low approval rating:

()

FDR 57.41%, Hoover 41.65% 472-59 in the electoral vote

()

1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41.01%, Anderson 6.61% 489-49 in the electoral vote.

Add about 6.5% to the approval rating of an incumbent Senator, Governor, or President, and you get a good estimate of how he will do in the upcoming election. It worked well with Reagan,  Dubya, and Obama; it will likely work well (if not for) Trump.

Hoover and Carter had something that Trump lacks -- a moral compass. I'm not going to guess what states would comprise 55 or so electoral votes for a Republican President seeking re-election and failing as badly as Hoover or Carter. Trump would lose

TEXAS

I have been slow to put those results in this thread as portents of what awaits the President in 2020, This is the lowest nationwide approval rating that I have seen for this President, and I am too careful to predict yet that such a low approval rating will stick. I'm suggesting what happens if the President is so unpopular at the start of the 2020 campaign.

So what do the Democrats need to do to win such a blowout against a President with such low approval ratings? The 'new Obama' would do it.

 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 03, 2017, 02:25:04 PM
This is a serious crash across the board. That trendline in RCP should be especially alarming for the GOP, not that they're planning on doing anything differently.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 03, 2017, 02:47:37 PM
This is a serious crash across the board. That trendline in RCP should be especially alarming for the GOP, not that they're planning on doing anything differently.

I expect the GOP to rally around the president, at least briefly, once Gorsuch gets confirmed.  That'll probably propel him to ~42-43%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 03, 2017, 03:42:08 PM
Reuters/Ipsos:

Trump Approval: 44/49
Trump Favorability: 51/49 (lol)
Obama Favorability: 64/36


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 03, 2017, 03:51:05 PM

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 03, 2017, 04:59:52 PM
Reuters/Ipsos:

Trump Approval: 44/49
Trump Favorability: 51/49 (lol)
Obama Favorability: 64/36

Link? According to http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
Trump's Approval is  45.5/46.5


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 03, 2017, 06:47:45 PM
Reuters/Ipsos:

Trump Approval: 44/49
Trump Favorability: 51/49 (lol)
Obama Favorability: 64/36

Link? According to http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
Trump's Approval is  45.5/46.5

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16526


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 03, 2017, 10:08:06 PM
Ipos/Reuters...the new Rasmussen?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on April 03, 2017, 10:11:14 PM
Some people may only disapprove of him because he constantly exposes more than ever how depraved and worthless our society is.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 03, 2017, 11:57:25 PM
Some people may only disapprove of him because he constantly exposes more than ever how depraved and worthless our society is.

That is a very good reason. He represents much that is wrong in America


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 04, 2017, 12:46:04 PM
Some people may only disapprove of him because he constantly exposes more than ever how depraved and worthless our society is.

That is a very good reason. He represents much that is wrong in America

Most things which are wrong today in America are Donald Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 04, 2017, 12:55:54 PM
Gallup:

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

Quinnipiac:

Approve 35% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2448)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 04, 2017, 12:58:25 PM
Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Quinnipiac:

Approve 35% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2448)
alot of these polls paint a similar picture


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 04, 2017, 01:00:23 PM
Some brutal numbers in the Quinnipiac poll:

                                                                                    White College Educated
                          Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              35      79      6       32     39         31         36    51
Disapprove          57     14     91       57     51         63        58     39
DK/NA                 8        7      3        11     11          5         6     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve            21      30        41    42        47    41          43    16
Disapprove        70      60        52    51       44     53         48     77
DK/NA                8      10         8      6        10      7           8      7

61 - 34 percent that he is not honest;
55 - 40 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
57 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
66 - 29 percent that he is not level-headed;
64 - 33 percent that he is a strong person;
60 - 35 percent that he is intelligent;
61 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
Disapprove 61 - 29 percent of the way he is handling the environment;
Disapprove 48 - 41 percent of the way he is handling the economy;
Disapprove 58 - 33 percent of the way he is handling foreign policy;
Disapprove 49 - 42 percent of the way he is handling terrorism;
Disapprove 57 - 39 percent of the way he is handling immigration issues.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 04, 2017, 01:06:35 PM
Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Quinnipiac:

Approve 35% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2448)
alot of these polls paint a similar picture

And it isn't Monet's water lilies.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 04, 2017, 01:20:00 PM
Some brutal numbers in the Quinnipiac poll:

                                                                                    White College Educated
                          Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              35      79      6       32     39         31         36    51
Disapprove          57     14     91       57     51         63        58     39
DK/NA                 8        7      3        11     11          5         6     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve            21      30        41    42        47    41          43    16
Disapprove        70      60        52    51       44     53         48     77
DK/NA                8      10         8      6        10      7           8      7

61 - 34 percent that he is not honest;
55 - 40 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
57 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
66 - 29 percent that he is not level-headed;
64 - 33 percent that he is a strong person;
60 - 35 percent that he is intelligent;
61 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
Disapprove 61 - 29 percent of the way he is handling the environment;
Disapprove 48 - 41 percent of the way he is handling the economy;
Disapprove 58 - 33 percent of the way he is handling foreign policy;
Disapprove 49 - 42 percent of the way he is handling terrorism;
Disapprove 57 - 39 percent of the way he is handling immigration issues.
That is very similar to Bush's 2006 #'s


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 04, 2017, 04:56:16 PM
A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 04, 2017, 04:59:19 PM
A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1

That sounds about right. Whatever happens to the ACA, it is on Republicans at this point, whether one thinks that is fair or not. They can't pass the buck - not after all their rhetoric over the past 8 years, and the fact that they have unified control now.

Trump can *try* and dodge this bullet, but it won't work. That is the downside of holding the White House, and worse yet, having unified control. When voters need someone to blame, they often look to the top.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on April 04, 2017, 06:12:51 PM
First time Trump has been under 40 in the RCP average.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 04, 2017, 06:59:38 PM
First time Trump has been under 40 in the RCP average.

The crash continues.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 05, 2017, 08:19:10 AM
Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted April 2-4:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2f8nhwlimu/econToplines.pdf

Trump job approval/disapproval:
40/48% for -8%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 05, 2017, 08:25:41 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 05, 2017, 09:10:29 AM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%


Crosstabs:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-3e68-d4bd-a5df-befb5bd70002

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -5
Northeast: -13
South: +7
West: -6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -54
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: +2

10% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 05, 2017, 10:07:07 AM
Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

It should be
Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

No?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 05, 2017, 10:10:09 AM
Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

It should be
Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

No?

Haha yes


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 05, 2017, 10:17:58 AM
Ipsos, MARCH 30-APRIL 3 vs MARCH 25-29

All Adults, 2100, http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
46 (+1)
50 (+3)

LV is very unstable (due to sample size?). +10% at March 23, -14% at March 28, -1% at Aprils 3 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 05, 2017, 12:01:50 PM
Gallup:

Approval: 42% (+3)
Disapproval: 55% (-3)

Surging!



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 05, 2017, 12:13:40 PM
Gallup:

Approval: 42% (+3)
Disapproval: 55% (-3)

Surging!



()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 05, 2017, 12:57:38 PM
Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%


His first time underwater with them. I think they were the last holdout.

Nope, he was already underwater with them in their previous poll, which had him at -5:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5588116#msg5588116

So this latest poll is actually an improvement.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 05, 2017, 01:01:17 PM
I was watching the Trump-Abdullah press conference recently and it was Obama-style.

Did Trump take any meds recently ? He's talking more coherently these days ...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on April 05, 2017, 01:04:55 PM
I was watching the Trump-Abdullah press conference recently and it was Obama-style.

Did Trump take any meds recently ? He's talking more coherently these days ...

That means a meltdown is imminent.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 05, 2017, 02:44:55 PM
Rasmussen


Total, -8:
46 (+3)
54 (-3)

Strongly, -15:
28 (+1)
43 (-3)


Surging indeed :P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 05, 2017, 02:49:14 PM
I was watching the Trump-Abdullah press conference recently and it was Obama-style.

Did Trump take any meds recently ? He's talking more coherently these days ...

Maybe they put them in his drink.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: KingSweden on April 05, 2017, 03:53:31 PM

Oh man, Surge... the crack to Mountain Dew's cocaine


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 05, 2017, 04:11:59 PM
A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1

That sounds about right. Whatever happens to the ACA, it is on Republicans at this point, whether one thinks that is fair or not. They can't pass the buck - not after all their rhetoric over the past 8 years, and the fact that they have unified control now.

Trump can *try* and dodge this bullet, but it won't work. That is the downside of holding the White House, and worse yet, having unified control. When voters need someone to blame, they often look to the top.

The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 05, 2017, 04:23:26 PM
The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

He surely can. The incumbent party also enjoys the benefits of a good economy, even if they had nothing to do with it.  It's possible if Republicans/Trump get their act together and pass tax cuts and infrastructure spending, they could give a small, temporary boost to it as well. However, I personally still think the risk of some sort of recession over the next 4 years is considerable. The current economic expansion is getting close to historic levels. I know they don't just "die" of old age, so to speak, but the historical pattern is worrying.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 05, 2017, 06:59:12 PM
The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

He surely can. The incumbent party also enjoys the benefits of a good economy, even if they had nothing to do with it.  It's possible if Republicans/Trump get their act together and pass tax cuts and infrastructure spending, they could give a small, temporary boost to it as well. However, I personally still think the risk of some sort of recession over the next 4 years is considerable. The current economic expansion is getting close to historic levels. I know they don't just "die" of old age, so to speak, but the historical pattern is worrying.

For what it's worth, The Australian economy hasn't had a recession since the early 90s but we never had expansion longer than 10 years. People think that since Trump is a billionaire, that he will be good with everyone else's money. Especially people who are professional money people. But it just seems like common sense that just because you have a lot of money doesn't mean you will make money for other people. In fact, the opposite is often true. This speaks nothing to policy but I don't see how the economy can be stable through so many things that destabilize the global environment where people work.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on April 06, 2017, 02:56:02 AM
Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationawide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 06, 2017, 03:36:42 AM
Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationwide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I have seen little that  he has done right so far with supposedly all the assets that a new President could have even if I make allowances for my partisanship. He so far has created rifts in his own Party between the Big Government right-wingers and the comparative libertarians while solidifying his liberal opposition.   

So long as an economic downturn does not hit early and hard he won;t have that as a problem. It takes some time for people to recognize that the economy has collapsed -- Hoover got a few months of leeway -- just not enough. A foreign-policy fiasco? Approval ratings for Jimmy Carter went up as Americans rallied behind him -- but we know where that went. 444 days were just too long.

So where will the approval rating of President Trump be in November 2018? If it is high, then his success will be the ruin of the Democrats  in the Senate so that all that they can stop will be Constitutional Amendments. But if it is low, then people will turn to House elections to put a check on an unpopular agenda.

Millions of Americans have a visceral hatred for him, and if he is to become effective he must resolve that. Can he work miracles? I doubt it.

The President's Party usually loses some seats in the House, at the least. The Senate?  Probably not this time, as there are no easy pickings for Democrats and plenty of shaky seats.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: jamestroll on April 06, 2017, 05:15:43 AM
I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

You think the GOP will gain 56 seats ??? lol!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 06, 2017, 05:40:29 AM
Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationwide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I have seen little that  he has done right so far with supposedly all the assets that a new President could have even if I make allowances for my partisanship. He so far has created rifts in his own Party between the Big Government right-wingers and the comparative libertarians while solidifying his liberal opposition.   

So long as an economic downturn does not hit early and hard he won;t have that as a problem. It takes some time for people to recognize that the economy has collapsed -- Hoover got a few months of leeway -- just not enough. A foreign-policy fiasco? Approval ratings for Jimmy Carter went up as Americans rallied behind him -- but we know where that went. 444 days were just too long.

So where will the approval rating of President Trump be in November 2018? If it is high, then his success will be the ruin of the Democrats  in the Senate so that all that they can stop will be Constitutional Amendments. But if it is low, then people will turn to House elections to put a check on an unpopular agenda.

Millions of Americans have a visceral hatred for him, and if he is to become effective he must resolve that. Can he work miracles? I doubt it.

The President's Party usually loses some seats in the House, at the least. The Senate?  Probably not this time, as there are no easy pickings for Democrats and plenty of shaky seats.   

At this point, I can almost believe that Trump will be at large for a while because Bush was started out unpopular and was eventually popular...or at least Democrats were unpopular for a disproportionate anount of time. We will never know if it was because he was solely because he was a "war president" or if Democrats were really that off point with style and policies.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 06, 2017, 07:43:00 AM
Mid 40 (and only down single digits) nationwide at the Midterms would be okay cause I still think that the numbers are skewed towards the Dems because of the sample sizes which again overestimate Dem turnout at the polls. The low information, low energy voters who won't turn out are leaning towards disapproval because they mostly get their "information" from the mass media which is heavily against Trump.

So, Mid 40 would eventually be something like a tie with again California, Illinois, New York skewing it nationawide, so in the important Senate States like Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio it will be a 50+ approval with the electorate what will be hard for Dems.

I'm still very much calm and optimistic about my 56+ seat projection.

I can agree with this, your partisan slant aside and rant about polling. (There's no skew to the Democrats). However a low to mid 40s yields victory only in solid Red states while preserving the Democrats in swing states. Meaning at best the Republicans will gain only 4-5 seats.

Red is where I think you're just spinning partisan silliness and blue where I agree.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on April 06, 2017, 11:32:52 AM
LIBERULS WILL LOSE 100 SEATS BECAUSE REAL AMERICANS LOVE TRUMP AND HATE CUCK SJWS



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ebsy on April 06, 2017, 11:33:45 AM
Trump could improve by 5 more points (unlikely) and still have the lowest approvals of any president in his 100 days. 2018 is somehow going to be a shock to some of you.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 06, 2017, 12:24:12 PM
Rasmussen,

Total, -8:
46 (-/-)
54 (-/-)

Strongly, -18:
27 (-1)
45 (+2)





Gallup
41 (-1)
53 (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 06, 2017, 01:32:43 PM
Gallup (4/03/17-4/05/17):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Source (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ebsy on April 06, 2017, 01:53:31 PM
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-3/

Gravis (gag) poll of Montana has Trump at 50% approve, 42% disapprove. Not good!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: American2020 on April 06, 2017, 03:05:12 PM
Even in Utah

http://www.sltrib.com/home/5143710-155/poll-trumps-support-in-utah-back (http://www.sltrib.com/home/5143710-155/poll-trumps-support-in-utah-back)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 06, 2017, 03:42:03 PM
In the era of a nationalist GOP, is Utah the reverse WV? Time will tell.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on April 06, 2017, 05:28:51 PM
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-3/

Gravis (gag) poll of Montana has Trump at 50% approve, 42% disapprove. Not good!

Still pretty bad for trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 06, 2017, 06:41:10 PM
We have two polls of states well to the Right of America as a whole: Gravis in Montana (beggars can't be choosers at this early stage)  and Dan Jones in Utah. I also have Washington State here.

There are no April Fool's jokes on this map.

Montana, Gravis:

()

That's a big chunk of territory on the map -- but only three electoral votes. Montana has the fourth-largest land mass in America, and even Rhode Island has more electoral votes.  

  
Quote
Washington • President Donald Trump's approval rating in Utah, after recently edging above 50 percent for the first time, has taken a hit — leaving him once again with less than majority favorability, a new poll shows.

A Utah Policy survey published Wednesday shows that 47 percent of Utahns approve of Trump, while 50 percent do not, a sharp drop from a recent Salt Lake Tribune-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll in which just over a majority of Utah voters — 54 percent — gave the president a thumbs-up.

The first poll was conducted March 15-21, and the second was conducted March 22-29.

Dan Jones & Associates handled both, with margins of error below 4 percentage points.

Jones, a longtime pollster, said the president's approval dropped mainly for two reasons: failure to pass the American Health Care Act, which would have repealed and replaced the Affordable Care Act in part, and continuing news about potential ties between Russia's hacking of the election and Trump's team.

http://www.sltrib.com/home/5143710-155/poll-trumps-support-in-utah-back

I somehow missed the earlier poll, which I really wish that I had a chance to show. I can show only one poll, and the later poll from the same pollster takes precedence. Although I can show the older one in "favorability" with an asterisk this one time.

In a true binary race with this level of support, President Trump still gets about 53%  of the vote -- but he could lose Utah if he gets a strong challenge from a conservative alternative more libertarian in economics and having a lifestyle and business connections closer to LDS values. As in 2016, he cannot assume Utah as given.  In a true binary election (which the Presidential race in Utah was not), a Republican needs to win about 65% of the vote in Utah to have a chance to win. I would still project him to get 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% to approval under normal circumstances). President Trump will need Utah to win in 2020, and he will need to win it big.


Washington -- Elway poll ...40-56. That one slipped in while I was posting this post's predecessor.  

C'mon, Ohio!


Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on April 06, 2017, 06:57:54 PM
Washington-Elway poll (http://www.elwayresearch.com/Current_Polls/Trump-APR2017.pdf).

Respondents disapprove of Trump's leadership: 56/40

Respondents believe is bring "the wrong type of changes": 46/34


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 06, 2017, 07:42:24 PM
Some conclusions: Utah is U-nique... but this Utah poll and the tepid win of Trump in Arizona in 2016 (Arizona is of course a much bigger prize in 2020) suggest that Arizona is potentially big trouble for Republicans in the next few years. If Mormon support for Trump is weak for a right-wing Republican among Mormons in Utah, one can expect much the same in Arizona among Mormons just as Mexican-Americans despise him about as much as blacks despise a segregationist pol. You can now reasonably count on Nevada and New Mexico being in the bag for any opponent of President Trump in 2020. Trump will win Idaho and Wyoming, of course, but I cannot any conclusion about North or South Dakota  based on the poll in Montana any more than I could draw any conclusion about either Dakota from neighboring Minnesota.

Based upon prior performance of the states in recent elections (2000 or later), an estimate of 40% approval for President Trump nationwide, and existing polls for 21 states (some of which allow for conclusions of analogous results in other states) I can make predictions on how most states will go:

STRONG TRUMP (10% or larger margin)

Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska (except NE-02)
Oklahoma
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
West Virginia
Wyoming

WEAK TRUMP 5% to 9%

Alaska
Indiana
Louisiana
Missouri
Texas
Utah

BARELY TRUMP (under 5%)

Georgia?
South Carolina?

I DON'T HAVE A CLUE YET:

ME-02
NE-02
Ohio

BARELY TO A DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT (under 5%)

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
North Carolina
Wisconsin

WEAKLY TO A DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT (5% to 9%)

Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
Pennsylvania

STRONGLY TO A DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT (10% or more)

California
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine (except ME-02)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington







 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 06, 2017, 09:24:17 PM
It will be very interesting to see what the missile strike in Syria does to Trump's image. Can't imagine it will be bad.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: swf541 on April 06, 2017, 11:24:54 PM
He'll probably get a boost for a week or so unless he continues on if Iran or Hezbollah (or the SAA) attempt to retaliate in which case i think it could spike


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 07, 2017, 12:54:00 AM
He has his war. Americans love war until they start getting filled body bags  back.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 07, 2017, 01:10:36 AM
But all his alt-right buddies are pissed so this night hurt his approval


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 07, 2017, 01:16:16 AM
Bold Prediction: This'll hurt his approvals.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on April 07, 2017, 02:04:25 AM
I mean given how fast things are moving, maybe this whole thing is a disaster by Sunday.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 07, 2017, 08:58:25 AM
Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 07, 2017, 08:59:22 AM
Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

Welcome to Atlas!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 07, 2017, 09:00:12 AM
Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

Keep on keeping on, Trump the warhawk. And welcome!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 07, 2017, 10:34:18 AM
Rasmussen:

Approve: 45% (-1)
Dissaprove: 55% (+1)

-10

Keep on keeping on, Trump the warhawk. And welcome!

TBH, these probably were complete before the airstrikes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 07, 2017, 12:03:25 PM
Gallup

Approve 40% (-1%)
Disapprove 54% (+1%)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on April 07, 2017, 01:12:58 PM
He might get a small, short-lived bump from the missile strikes, but it'll dissipate after a week or two and it'll be a long term net negative if mission creep sets in.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 07, 2017, 03:21:00 PM
Like what? Go to a level that makes him borderline polarizing than unpopular? Maybe 44-45%?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 07, 2017, 06:09:55 PM
Regarding the missile strikes... he could lose part of his own base, while becoming more popular with people who haven't traditionally supported him.

I'm not sure which of the two will have a more significant impact though. Maybe the latter in the short run, and the former in the long run?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 08, 2017, 12:12:42 PM
Gallup

Approve 40% (+-0%)
Disapprove 54% (+-0%)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 08, 2017, 12:15:29 PM

So his attempt to improve his numbers by bombing Syria failed.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 08, 2017, 12:19:46 PM

So his attempt to improve his numbers by bombing Syria failed.

Since two-thirds of that poll were conducted before the missile strikes occured we don't know that yet.

We'll know more on Monday.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wells on April 08, 2017, 12:34:37 PM

So his attempt to improve his numbers by bombing Syria failed.

I'm not so sure. The day that rolled off the average was a relatively decent day for him. But we'll have to wait and see how the next few days roll out.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 08, 2017, 12:37:58 PM

So his attempt to improve his numbers by bombing Syria failed.

I'm not so sure. The day that rolled off the average was a relatively decent day for him. But we'll have to wait and see how the next few days roll out.

If that's the case, maybe he hasn't changed the game but simply gave those 41-43%er a reason to support him this week?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 09, 2017, 12:01:29 PM
Gallup

Aprove  40% (+-0)
Disapprove 54% (+-0)

Same numbers from Gallup for the third day in a row.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 09, 2017, 12:28:10 PM
So according to Gallup, the strike was a zero sum event for his approvals. Too bad for him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 09, 2017, 12:40:32 PM
I wonder if Trump's numbers are stable (for now) because is neither gaining nor losing any of his supporters, or if he's losing the same number of supporters as he is gaining.  Maybe we'll receive a hint when we see some crosstabs.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on April 09, 2017, 12:48:37 PM
I wonder if Trump's numbers are stable (for now) because is neither gaining nor losing any of his supporters, or if he's losing the same number of supporters as he is gaining.  Maybe we'll receive a hint when we see some crosstabs.

Although it's too early to tell, I think people don't want to say that they approve of him because of his past actions/comments that still weigh him down despite the fact that they may approve of the airstrike.

Hopefully, we'll see detailed information on ~ what % of people approve of the airstrike.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 09, 2017, 03:57:12 PM
The day after Seal Team 6 whacked Osama bin Laden, approvals for President Obama went up a few points. Obviously that was more decisive, and the President was Obama ... Donald Trump is definitely not Barack Obama.

If there are any positive results for polling of President Trump they will come out slowly because he doesn't engender as much trust as President Obama did.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 10, 2017, 07:01:49 AM
CBS:

43% Approval (+3)
49% Disapproval (-3)

Source (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-shows-divergence-in-americans-opinion-of-us-strike-vs-syria/)

Quote
The increase in approval is driven mainly by independents, who are now at 42 percent approval up from 34 percent, while Republicans have held steady.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 10, 2017, 07:54:32 AM
We need to make sure that we have at least five days in which to determine whether President Trump has made a significant gain in polling numbers.  That means the same pollster with the same screen. People take a little time in which to react.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on April 10, 2017, 08:06:32 AM
CBS:

43% Approval (+3)
49% Disapproval (-3)

Source (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-shows-divergence-in-americans-opinion-of-us-strike-vs-syria/)

Quote
The increase in approval is driven mainly by independents, who are now at 42 percent approval up from 34 percent, while Republicans have held steady.

Self-described "independents" have no real political convictions and should be barred from the political process, imo. They just sway wildly back and forth like saplings and are solely responsible for all of the rash, awful decisions made in this country and the unstable political climate that leads to nothing getting done, thanks to their low-info behavior. If we're going to make it harder for anybody to vote, then please let it be these people who feel the wrath.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Klartext89 on April 10, 2017, 08:33:31 AM
CBS:

43% Approval (+3)
49% Disapproval (-3)

Source (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-shows-divergence-in-americans-opinion-of-us-strike-vs-syria/)

Quote
The increase in approval is driven mainly by independents, who are now at 42 percent approval up from 34 percent, while Republicans have held steady.

Self-described "independents" have no real political convictions and should be barred from the political process, imo. They just sway wildly back and forth like saplings and are solely responsible for all of the rash, awful decisions made in this country and the unstable political climate that leads to nothing getting done, thanks to their low-info behavior. If we're going to make it harder for anybody to vote, then please let it be these people who feel the wrath.

You're serious?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on April 10, 2017, 08:48:22 AM
Also in the CBS number, 57% support Syrian strike


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on April 10, 2017, 09:03:52 AM
Also in the CBS number, 57% support Syrian strike

Do they have a party id breakdown of that? It seems like an issue dividing both democrats and republicans.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 10, 2017, 10:45:21 AM
These are numbers with which he can conceivably win reelection, and all it took was bombing a foreign country.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on April 10, 2017, 10:45:45 AM
Also in the CBS number, 57% support Syrian strike

Do they have a party id breakdown of that? It seems like an issue dividing both democrats and republicans.
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 10, 2017, 10:55:09 AM
Rasmussen:

Approve 44% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Maybe just noise? Regardless, it's important to remember how dangerously short the attention span of the American electorate is.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 10, 2017, 12:00:56 PM
Gallup

Approve 40% (+-0)
Disapprove 53% (-1)

Nothing important happening here.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on April 10, 2017, 12:18:04 PM
Rasmussen:

Approve 44% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Maybe just noise? Regardless, it's important to remember how dangerously short the attention span of the American electorate is.

True. An air strike might make him more popular short term (unfortunately) but things like Trumpcare are baked in. It was the same for Obama.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 10, 2017, 02:40:10 PM
ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

Quote
Fifty-one percent in the national survey support the air strikes – 86 percent of Republicans, but 46 percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats. Four in 10 overall are opposed, with the rest undecided.

The same number, 51 percent, also support an explicit U.S. policy to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power, a point on which administration policy has seemed inconsistent.

Quote
Other results in this survey show the divided nature of attitudes on the issue. While 31 percent of Americans strongly support the strike, nearly as many, 27 percent, strongly oppose it. Support for additional strikes slips among Republicans to 65 percent, and among independents and Democrats to 32 and 19 percent, respectively. Even among Republicans, just fewer than half, 48 percent, are confident the strikes will prevent further use of chemical weapons in Syria; this drops to 20 percent of independents and just 17 percent of Democrats.

Quote
Essentially, for everyone in this poll who says the action made them more confident in Trump’s leadership, someone else says it made them less confident – 25 and 28 percent, respectively. A plurality, 43 percent, says it made no difference.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on April 10, 2017, 02:47:44 PM
ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

Quote
Fifty-one percent in the national survey support the air strikes – 86 percent of Republicans, but 46 percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats. Four in 10 overall are opposed, with the rest undecided.

The same number, 51 percent, also support an explicit U.S. policy to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power, a point on which administration policy has seemed inconsistent.

Quote
Other results in this survey show the divided nature of attitudes on the issue. While 31 percent of Americans strongly support the strike, nearly as many, 27 percent, strongly oppose it. Support for additional strikes slips among Republicans to 65 percent, and among independents and Democrats to 32 and 19 percent, respectively. Even among Republicans, just fewer than half, 48 percent, are confident the strikes will prevent further use of chemical weapons in Syria; this drops to 20 percent of independents and just 17 percent of Democrats.

Quote
Essentially, for everyone in this poll who says the action made them more confident in Trump’s leadership, someone else says it made them less confident – 25 and 28 percent, respectively. A plurality, 43 percent, says it made no difference.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf

That's interesting to me. It probably doesn't hurt Trump much (but neither does it help him).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on April 10, 2017, 03:47:27 PM
Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on April 10, 2017, 03:52:13 PM
ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

Quote
Fifty-one percent in the national survey support the air strikes – 86 percent of Republicans, but 46 percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats. Four in 10 overall are opposed, with the rest undecided.

The same number, 51 percent, also support an explicit U.S. policy to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power, a point on which administration policy has seemed inconsistent.

Quote
Other results in this survey show the divided nature of attitudes on the issue. While 31 percent of Americans strongly support the strike, nearly as many, 27 percent, strongly oppose it. Support for additional strikes slips among Republicans to 65 percent, and among independents and Democrats to 32 and 19 percent, respectively. Even among Republicans, just fewer than half, 48 percent, are confident the strikes will prevent further use of chemical weapons in Syria; this drops to 20 percent of independents and just 17 percent of Democrats.

Quote
Essentially, for everyone in this poll who says the action made them more confident in Trump’s leadership, someone else says it made them less confident – 25 and 28 percent, respectively. A plurality, 43 percent, says it made no difference.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf

That's interesting to me. It probably doesn't hurt Trump much (but neither does it help him).

Seems about right.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 10, 2017, 03:55:21 PM
Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on April 10, 2017, 04:06:16 PM
Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

It doesnt say support actually invading Syria though.


Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.

Spare us the dramatics.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on April 10, 2017, 04:12:32 PM
Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.

And I suppose Assad is the hero, right?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 10, 2017, 04:33:58 PM
ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

Quote
Fifty-one percent in the national survey support the air strikes – 86 percent of Republicans, but 46 percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats. Four in 10 overall are opposed, with the rest undecided.

The same number, 51 percent, also support an explicit U.S. policy to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power, a point on which administration policy has seemed inconsistent.

Quote
Other results in this survey show the divided nature of attitudes on the issue. While 31 percent of Americans strongly support the strike, nearly as many, 27 percent, strongly oppose it. Support for additional strikes slips among Republicans to 65 percent, and among independents and Democrats to 32 and 19 percent, respectively. Even among Republicans, just fewer than half, 48 percent, are confident the strikes will prevent further use of chemical weapons in Syria; this drops to 20 percent of independents and just 17 percent of Democrats.

Quote
Essentially, for everyone in this poll who says the action made them more confident in Trump’s leadership, someone else says it made them less confident – 25 and 28 percent, respectively. A plurality, 43 percent, says it made no difference.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf

That's interesting to me. It probably doesn't hurt Trump much (but neither does it help him).

Seems about right.
We are definitely better off without Assad. Of course he could be replaced by someone worse.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 10, 2017, 05:16:04 PM
Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.

And I suppose Assad is the hero, right?

Villians after each other. Bombing innocent civilians no matter in what context is terrible. You need to take lessions from Iraq since you seem to support the bombings.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 10, 2017, 11:01:09 PM
Wow, an outright majority support regime change in Syria? I guess the Iraq War really is history.

America is turning into the villian like in a movie but this time it's reality.

"Turning into"?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 11, 2017, 09:15:34 AM
Rasmussen (4/11/17) -

Approve: 47% (+3)
Dissaprove: 53% (-3)

Trump's actions in Syria are benefiting him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 11, 2017, 12:02:31 PM
Gallup

Approve: 40% (nc)
Disapprove: 54% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 11, 2017, 12:08:21 PM
Rasmussen (4/11/17) -

Approve: 47% (+3)
Dissaprove: 53% (-3)

Trump's actions in Syria are benefiting him.

That's very slight.

Gallup

Approve: 40% (nc)
Disapprove: 54% (+1)

The point. President Trump's support seems to be stabilizing at a low level.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 11, 2017, 12:17:35 PM
VA - Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2450):

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on April 11, 2017, 01:47:49 PM
VA - Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2450):

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)



Clearly benefiting from that Syria strike


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 11, 2017, 01:58:00 PM
Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College (Previous Poll was in February):

53% Approve (-7)
39% Disapprove (+9)

Source (http://talkbusiness.net/2017/04/president-trump-numbers-slip-gov-hutchinson-approval-rises-in-arkansas/)

Down from 60% in February. Probably the Obamacare fiasco... Republicans are ineffective in repealing it, but have nothing to replace it with except run-out-of-money-and-die.

It's not all bad news for Republicans; the Governor has gained some support.  President Trump would still win Arkansas decisively if he were up for re-election, but not as decisively as in November. Of course the map shows where his loss of support would destroy him politically. The loss of support is as severe as in any other part of the country. 

Virginia:

VA - Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2450):

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

Even if Virginia is drifting rapidly D without Donald Trump, this polling of him is a dismal result for him. Add six to the approval rating and you get a fair estimate of how much an incumbent would get running for re-election in a state.

President Trump stands to lose Virginia by a bigger margin than did Goldwater in 1964.  

I hope to see more states -- Ohio, especially.




Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 12, 2017, 08:22:45 AM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 6-9:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-5fbb-da80-afdf-dfff4d650002

Trump job approval/disapproval:
48/47% for +1%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +/-0
Northeast: -7
South: +7
West: -1

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -7
$50-100k: +9
over $100k: +23

12% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  14% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 12, 2017, 10:45:36 AM
Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College (Previous Poll was in February):

53% Approve (-7)
39% Disapprove (+9)

Source (http://talkbusiness.net/2017/04/president-trump-numbers-slip-gov-hutchinson-approval-rises-in-arkansas/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 12, 2017, 10:47:45 AM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 6-9:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-5fbb-da80-afdf-dfff4d650002

Trump job approval/disapproval:
48/47% for +1%


Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +/-0
Northeast: -7
South: +7
West: -1

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -7
$50-100k: +9
over $100k: +23

12% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  14% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 12, 2017, 10:52:29 AM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 6-9:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-5fbb-da80-afdf-dfff4d650002

Trump job approval/disapproval:
48/47% for +1%


Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +/-0
Northeast: -7
South: +7
West: -1

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -7
$50-100k: +9
over $100k: +23

12% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  14% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

Politico/Morning Consult has always been his best performing poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 12, 2017, 10:52:46 AM
Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -7
$50-100k: +9
over $100k: +23

"Butbutbut Trump is working-class buhhh."


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 12, 2017, 10:55:51 AM
Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -7
$50-100k: +9
over $100k: +23

"Butbutbut Trump is working-class buhhh."

Minorities are disproportionately represented among the under $50k category, which would heavily drag down Trump's approval numbers under that category. I'd like to see these income results for Whites alone. But clearly, as anyone who actually looked at the numbers the whole time would've known, Trump was anything but unpopular among the middle and upper middle classes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 12, 2017, 10:57:05 AM
Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kbbwrpsurz/econTabReport.pdf) (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 12, 2017, 11:03:13 AM
Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kbbwrpsurz/econTabReport.pdf) (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)

Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 12, 2017, 11:05:03 AM
Minorities are disproportionately represented among the under $50k category

But they are still working-class.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 12, 2017, 11:06:38 AM
Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I'm not so sure. War is somewhat popular -- in the abstract. People like the idea of showing that America is "tough", but they start getting weary once they hear about it on the news every day for months and months. It's what happened with Iraq.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 12, 2017, 11:09:50 AM
Minorities are disproportionately represented among the under $50k category

But they are still working-class.

Well, of course. But I don't think it has ever been a question whether they dislike Trump or not. His supposed base among the working class is really meant as a base among the White working class. Although it's curious how some people now define said class.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 12, 2017, 11:15:33 AM
Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I'm not so sure. War is somewhat popular -- in the abstract. People like the idea of showing that America is "tough", but they start getting weary once they hear about it on the news every day for months and months. It's what happened with Iraq.

A war only seems to be unpopular when America isn't winning it. Among those of us who're anti-war it'll always be unpopular, but history has shown countless times that we're the minority. The majority of Americans will rally behind a war until they start seeing all the caskets coming home and endless news reports for months of a lack of success in the mission. It's that alone, not even the potentially countless civilian deaths or total destruction of another country, that discourages Americans' support for war.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on April 12, 2017, 11:20:34 AM
Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College (Previous Poll was in February):

53% Approve (-7)
39% Disapprove (+9)

Source (http://talkbusiness.net/2017/04/president-trump-numbers-slip-gov-hutchinson-approval-rises-in-arkansas/)

Which demos caused that large shift?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 12, 2017, 11:26:30 AM
The majority of Americans will rally behind a war until they start seeing all the caskets coming home and endless news reports for months of a lack of success in the mission. It's that alone, not even the potentially countless civilian deaths or total destruction of another country, that discourages Americans' support for war.

I agree with that part.  American casualties are the unpopular part of war.  But if the war is conducted from the air, with no large occupying army, then there isn't going to be much of anything in the way of American casualties.  And I don't think Trump subscribes to Colin Powell's "pottery barn rule", so it's not clear to me that he's ever going to try to fight a ground war, or embrace Petraeus-style counterinsurgency.  He could just fight from the air, and thus never get bogged down in a conflict that would generate more than a handful of American casualties.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 12, 2017, 11:38:35 AM
Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kbbwrpsurz/econTabReport.pdf) (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)

Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I think some of his disastrous numbers from the Health Care debate have dropped off too.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on April 12, 2017, 12:14:13 PM
Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American invervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I'm not so sure. War is somewhat popular -- in the abstract. People like the idea of showing that America is "tough", but they start getting weary once they hear about it on the news every day for months and months. It's what happened with Iraq.

A war only seems to be unpopular when America isn't winning it. Among those of us who're anti-war it'll always be unpopular, but history has shown countless times that we're the minority. The majority of Americans will rally behind a war until they start seeing all the caskets coming home and endless news reports for months of a lack of success in the mission. It's that alone, not even the potentially countless civilian deaths or total destruction of another country, that discourages Americans' support for war.

A war is popular if it's a quick victory like the 1st Gulf War or a sustained national effort against a powerful threatening enemy like World War II. However, these are fairly uncommon nowadays, and long-term quagmires with guerilla warfare, nation-building, and mission creep have been far more common since 1945. Even the Korean War was unpopular at the time.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 12, 2017, 12:32:35 PM
Point taken. His approval numbers do appear to have improved some since their low point just prior to the bombing, however. Whether that was caused by the bombing or not is hard to tell. But I do believe if he dramatically increased American intervention in Syria then his approval ratings would increase substantially.

I'm not so sure. War is somewhat popular -- in the abstract. People like the idea of showing that America is "tough", but they start getting weary once they hear about it on the news every day for months and months. It's what happened with Iraq.

It's victory or its prospect, especially if it is cheap, that people love. People suspend their moral judgments of war until the filled body bags start returning, military aircraft go down, or when ships start sinking.   

War is great for stimulating the economy and creating jobs, and (for a time) offering patriotism to unify a divided culture.  Of course, President Trump isn't so great at convincing people who voted against him and define patriotism as something other than support for a dictatorial style of government.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 12, 2017, 01:04:27 PM
Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kbbwrpsurz/econTabReport.pdf) (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)

crosstabs:

men: -8
women: -13
income under $50k: -14
income between $50k and $100k: -6
income over $100k: -31
white: +4
black: -59
Hispanic: -44

So the “over $100k” income group here is the exact opposite result as in the Morning Consult poll.  +23 points in one poll and -31 points in the other.  Of course, that cohort is smaller than the other two income cohorts, so MoE is larger.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 12, 2017, 04:33:47 PM
Gallup (4/09/17-4/11/17):

Approve 41% (+1)
Disapprove 52% (-2)

Source (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 13, 2017, 12:23:39 PM
Gallup:

40% Approve (-1)
54% Disapprove (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 13, 2017, 12:32:27 PM
Why is there so much more variance in trump's approval polls than Obama's? Rasmussen, politico, and CBS all find him around -4 on average, while gallup has been -11-12 for a while.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 13, 2017, 12:34:46 PM
Why is there so much more variance in trump's approval polls than Obama's? Rasmussen, politico, and CBS all find him around -4 on average, while gallup has been -11-12 for a while.

These days, CBS is essentially another Fox News in their coverage.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on April 13, 2017, 01:13:05 PM
Why is there so much more variance in trump's approval polls than Obama's? Rasmussen, politico, and CBS all find him around -4 on average, while gallup has been -11-12 for a while.

These days, CBS is essentially another Fox News in their coverage.
difference between polls and news bias though, Fox News tends to have accurate polls despite their news bias


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 13, 2017, 01:19:54 PM
Also check the population being sampled.  I believe Gallup polls all adults.  Some of the others may be polling registered voters or likely voters.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 13, 2017, 02:35:48 PM
Also check the population being sampled.  I believe Gallup polls all adults.  Some of the others may be polling registered voters or likely voters.

Polling likely voters right now is so stupid too.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 14, 2017, 07:11:48 AM
Marist:

39% Approve (+1)
49% Disapprove (-2)

Source (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us170411_Circus/Complete%20Survey%20Findings_Marist%20Poll_USA_April%202017.pdf)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 14, 2017, 08:26:52 AM
Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source (https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2017/04/14/trump-approval-april-7-13/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 14, 2017, 11:12:36 AM
Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source (https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2017/04/14/trump-approval-april-7-13/)

On the page with the crosstabs, it says 45% for adults, and 46% for registered voters:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArbGp4UkFxYTlHekk/view

adults: 45/53% for -8%
RVs: 46/53% for -7%

men: +7
women: -24
whites: +9
blacks: -57
Hispanics: -38

white college grad: -17
white non-college grad: +20
non-white college grad: -47
non-white non-college grad: -37


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 14, 2017, 02:11:30 PM
Gallup (4/11/17-4/13/17):

Approve 40% (±0)
Disapprove 55% (+1)

Source (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 14, 2017, 05:56:14 PM
Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source (https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2017/04/14/trump-approval-april-7-13/)

On the page with the crosstabs, it says 45% for adults, and 46% for registered voters:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArbGp4UkFxYTlHekk/view

adults: 45/53% for -8%
RVs: 46/53% for -7%

men: +7
women: -24
whites: +9
blacks: -57
Hispanics: -38

white college grad: -17
white non-college grad: +20
non-white college grad: -47
non-white non-college grad: -37


American men are pretty terrible it seems.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 15, 2017, 12:58:24 PM
Trump back under 40% approval per Gallup....only 39% Approve today

To be a little more specific:

Gallup (4/12/17-4/14/17):

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (±0)

Source (http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 16, 2017, 01:26:04 PM
Gallup, April 13-15

41% (+2)
53% (-2)

Trump's job approval seems to have stabilized around 40%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 16, 2017, 02:03:29 PM
What is the borderline between noise and significant movement?

A 4 point swing?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on April 16, 2017, 02:15:44 PM
What is the borderline between noise and significant movement?

A 4 point swing?

In terms of a daily tracking poll, its noise. Trump has been at or around 40% for over a week, 41% is within that ballpark.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 16, 2017, 02:21:09 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 16, 2017, 03:00:19 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 16, 2017, 04:08:16 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on April 16, 2017, 04:58:59 PM
There has been surprisingly very few polls of Pennsylvania since the election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on April 16, 2017, 05:00:24 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

And because he's a Rich Republican, the media is downplaying the risks against the markets. They did the same with Bush in his second term. "The economy is great", "equities are booming", "taxes are affordable", "you can buy a respectable  house with modest finances". Now, with a modest jobs report the media says "the job market is healthy". Last year, they would say "more people are working, but the UE is only going down because college kids are moving back to thier mom's basements and guys in Indiana are going on SSI"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 16, 2017, 10:22:25 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 16, 2017, 10:30:59 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

And because he's a Rich Republican, the media is downplaying the risks against the markets. They did the same with Bush in his second term. "The economy is great", "equities are booming", "taxes are affordable", "you can buy a respectable  house with modest finances". Now, with a modest jobs report the media says "the job market is healthy". Last year, they would say "more people are working, but the UE is only going down because college kids are moving back to thier mom's basements and guys in Indiana are going on SSI"
MSM is mostly Democrats though. They aren't rooting for Republicans or even being down the middle with their media coverage. They were very kind to Obama as well even though Obama wasn't buddy buddy with MSM at all.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2017, 09:16:29 AM
So long as we believe that President Trump will be running for re-election, this study by Nate Silver will remain relevant. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/)

I used it to predict that when Obama had approval ratings in the middle-to-high 40s early in 2016 that he would win re-election so long as one recognized

(1) that he was a competent campaigner
(2) that he had legitimate achievements in his first term
(3) that he satisfied his core support
(4) and that he would not have some disaster of foreign policy, economic meltdown, or scandal involving himself or those around him.

One cannot govern as one campaigns. There are deals to make, and one does not get everything that one likes. People who vote for a candidate in one year may find themselves disappointed with the results but find things generally tolerable.

It was obvious that President Obama would have to campaign just to save his political life, but he could do it. I'm guessing that a politician typically loses about 6% of his support as a candidate while governing or legislating (politics is a dirty business) but can get it back with adept campaigning. Against the usual challenger he would win. Mitt Romney was still an unusually-good challenger, but Obama still won.

A hint: Mitt Romney would have won by a landslide against Hillary Clinton, and nobody would be questioning whether he pulled any bait-and-switch tricks upon Americans who later feel gulled.  

As the Trump administration continues, more people are going to recognize Barack Obama as an excellent model of a politician -- a cautious and likable person who runs a tight ship. That is a tough standard, but you can see how that model works.  The likable and cautious leader will attract much competition just to be at his side, and he will get the best and will get good results.  The not-so-likable, more reckless leader will attract opportunists who seek to impose their ideological agendas and seek power for what it can do for the satisfaction of their egos and perhaps for their individual enrichment.

The model suggests that an incumbent Governor or Senator typically gains back about 6.5% of what he loses from winning an election to governing or legislating (and having to make some unpopular decisions) to returning to campaign mode. On the average, if he showed that he could win the last time, he probably wins the next time. But they can lose. Appointed pols almost invariably lose -- because they never showed that they could win election before running as an incumbent. Yes, competence, integrity, and general shifts of support can matter too.

What does the Presidency have in common with the Senate and a State governorship aside from being elected at the state level? The latter two have rather little in common except for a demand for a modicum of competent performance, and that one gets a record of achievements. 

At this point I look at the model and suggest that the usual President who got 46% of the popular vote could reasonably get 40%-or-so in approval ratings and get stuck there. Unless something wild happens between now and the winter of 2019-2020, the approval ratings for President Trump will be around 40%. He will need to be an average campaigner against an average challenger just to get back to 46% of the vote again. If his opponent is a better campaigner than average or is a better strategist, then he (or she) will win.

Donald Trump has lost almost all chance of cutting into liberal contempt for him; he gives them nothing but a vague tolerance. His level of support is almost good enough to allow him to win the same percentage of the vote in 2020 as in 2016 in a binary election -- but in an effectively-binary election that is about what Dukakis got in 1988 and McCain got in 2008. The Democratic nominee of 2020 will be a more adept campaigner than Hillary Clinton.

Here's the really bad news -- his level of support is stabilizing. In a way this is worse than having his support bouncing around as it did for Obama; it will be difficult for him to get the approval rate around 44% necessary for winning a majority of the vote. If you are a Republican you might now regret that Donald Trump won your Party's nomination.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 17, 2017, 09:25:37 AM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2017, 10:41:13 AM
There has been surprisingly very few polls of Pennsylvania since the election.

I have seen two polls of Pennsylvania, which is two more than I have seen of Ohio.

A hint: if the election were to be redone soon, Trump would lose Pennsylvania -- "bigly".


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 17, 2017, 11:19:17 AM
PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source (http://www.people-press.org/2017/04/17/public-dissatisfaction-with-washington-weighs-on-the-gop/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-04-17%20april%20political&org=982&lvl=100&ite=971&lea=211302&ctr=0&par=1&trk=)

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on April 17, 2017, 11:39:53 AM
What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 17, 2017, 12:03:11 PM
Gallup:

No updates April 17. Next update April 18.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 17, 2017, 12:57:20 PM
What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 17, 2017, 01:28:19 PM
What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

Huh? Trump has already produced numbers worse than Obama ever had.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 17, 2017, 01:42:24 PM
PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source (http://www.people-press.org/2017/04/17/public-dissatisfaction-with-washington-weighs-on-the-gop/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-04-17%20april%20political&org=982&lvl=100&ite=971&lea=211302&ctr=0&par=1&trk=)

()

Crosstabs:

()

Also of interest:

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 17, 2017, 01:49:32 PM
↑ Holy moly. Hispanics almost at the same level of disapproval as Blacks.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 17, 2017, 01:59:16 PM
What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

Huh? Trump has already produced numbers worse than Obama ever had.
I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 17, 2017, 02:11:28 PM
I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 17, 2017, 02:16:38 PM
PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

All Adults,
Total:

39% (-4)
54% (-1)

Strongly:
30% (+1)
44% (+1)


RV,
Total:

42%
52%

Strongly:
34%
44%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on April 17, 2017, 05:48:26 PM
Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

Did I miss something? What do you mean by "problems"?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2017, 07:10:51 PM
I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

40% is close to the partisan divide, an indication that about all possible swing voters disapprove of the President's performance. Incumbent Presidents have lost four times in the last century:

Hoover ended up with 39.65% of the popular vote in 1932
Ford ended up with 48.01% of the popular vote in 1976
Carter ended up with 41.91% of the popular vote in 1932
the elder Bush  ended up with 37.45% of the popular vote in 1992

Granted, Ford had never been elected to the Presidency, vice-Presidency, or to any statewide office before he became President -- and his campaign showed it. Bush got a challenge from the apparent center (Perot) who cut more into usual Republican than Democratic support, and I am not predicting anything of the sort in 2020.

Disapproval in the range of 55% is likely bad enough to keep President Trump from getting more than about 42% of the popular vote in 2020 -- which is about what Carter got. It's hard to see what Trump wins with such a result -- but he would be lucky to get 200 electoral votes  with that sort of result.  Even with a Ford-like result, he loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, and at least one of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

I have yet to see the economic meltdown, the international calamity, or the undeniable and inexcusable scandal. But anyone of these is more likely with an unpleasant leader with a chaotic style of leadership.         


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 17, 2017, 08:45:05 PM
PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source (http://www.people-press.org/2017/04/17/public-dissatisfaction-with-washington-weighs-on-the-gop/?utm_source=adaptivemailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-04-17%20april%20political&org=982&lvl=100&ite=971&lea=211302&ctr=0&par=1&trk=)

()

Clearly, Democrats need to moderate on gun policy and focus on new tax ideas that don't simply saddle Americans with additional income taxes while still generating additional revenue to increase their popularity in the areas of education, healthcare, social welfare, and government spending, while also reducing the deficit. A perfect solution would be a combination of eco-taxes and a land value tax. On trade, they should focus on protecting free trade, but ensuring trade deals are actually fair and enforce our values of labor rights, environmental protections, and safeguarding American jobs.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 17, 2017, 09:04:43 PM
I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

The worst thing about Trump being in the 30s for Congressional Republicans is that it's a going to have devastating effects downballot during the midterms, but virtually the all the favorable approvals will be coming from Republicans, meaning the GOP Congress would have hell to pay if they tried to impeach Trump and get him out of the picture. It's a lose-lose situation.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2017, 11:09:02 PM
I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

The worst thing about Trump being in the 30s for Congressional Republicans is that it's a going to have devastating effects downballot during the midterms, but virtually the all the favorable approvals will be coming from Republicans, meaning the GOP Congress would have hell to pay if they tried to impeach Trump and get him out of the picture. It's a lose-lose situation.

I see polling oscillating but close to 40%. A good news cycle can't rescue the President at this point. To have a real chance at winning the Presidency again in 2020 he must have an approval rating of 43% in early 2020. Of course that is a long time from now (nearly three years), but in the meantime he can inflict huge losses upon Congressional Republicans.

Let's remember that Republicans savaged President by calling him a dictator... President Trump is even more dictatorial. He might have advantages of not seeming so alien  and having more GOP money to support Republicans down-ballot; his Party is much more disciplined. Democrats can turn populist resentments against Donald Trump, whom they can pillory as an elitist.

They cannot remove President Trump, but they can gut his power only one way -- winning the House. The Senate will be more difficult.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 18, 2017, 07:31:06 AM
Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

Did I miss something? What do you mean by "problems"?

Oops! It should be NK (North Korea).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 18, 2017, 08:35:11 AM
Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 18, 2017, 08:45:15 AM
Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)
Wait a minute this is the poll Trump bragged about?!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 18, 2017, 08:46:45 AM
Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)
Wait a minute this is the poll Trump bragged about?!

Haha, yes!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 18, 2017, 08:50:55 AM
Rasmussen -- propaganda polling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 18, 2017, 10:31:48 AM
Harvard-Harris:

48% Approve (-1)
52% Disapprove (+1)

Source (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/329259-trumps-approval-falls-as-gender-gap-widens)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: 2952-0-0 on April 18, 2017, 12:14:10 PM
Gallup:
Approve 41
Disapprove 52 (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 18, 2017, 12:43:42 PM
Rasmussen, 18 April

Total, +0:
50% (-/-)
50% (-/-)

Strongly, -7:
32 (+2)
39 (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 18, 2017, 03:12:42 PM
HBO/Marist (3/22-3/27) (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us170323_MCC_HBO/HBO%20Real%20Sports_Marist%20Poll_National%20Complete%20Survey%20Findings_April%202017.pdf):

Trump Approval:

National Adults: 37/51
Football fans: 37/53
Baseball fans: 39/51
Basketball fans: 28/62
Hockey fans: 42/50
Tennis fans: 32/61
NASCAR fans: 50/38


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 18, 2017, 03:18:53 PM
Hockey fans are trash. Truly the worst of the bunch.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 18, 2017, 03:27:39 PM
Hockey fans are trash. Truly the worst of the bunch.
Why not NASCAR fans?

And why did they not poll golf fans? ;D


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on April 18, 2017, 04:43:46 PM
Hockey fans would be predominately Midwestern mostly MN, WI, MI, PA.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on April 18, 2017, 05:44:49 PM
Hockey fans are trash. Truly the worst of the bunch.

I'd argue certain segments of baseball fans are the absolute worst.

Namely Cardinals fans.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 18, 2017, 09:46:25 PM
Come on guys, let's not argue. We know that all sports fans are equally trash.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on April 19, 2017, 12:12:42 AM
Come on guys, let's not argue. We know that all sports fans are equally trash.

I can see how someone who grew up around Florida sports fans would think that.

Shouts out to Marlins Man.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2017, 12:14:42 AM
What about Quidditch fans?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 19, 2017, 12:20:22 AM

They are semi-respectable.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 19, 2017, 08:32:28 AM
Ipsos, April 13-17

All Adults,
43% (-4)
52% (+4)

RV
45% (-3)
51% (+3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 19, 2017, 08:52:45 AM
Rasmussen, 19 April

Total, -4:
48% (-2)
52% (+2)

Strongly, -9:
31% (-1)
40% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 19, 2017, 08:55:01 AM
Texas:

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Pictures/Day%20Two%20Press%20Release.pdf)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on April 19, 2017, 10:24:09 AM
Texas:

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Pictures/Day%20Two%20Press%20Release.pdf)

:o This is too unfavorable for Trump and Cruz. But it would be lovely if the results were actually true.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 19, 2017, 10:32:52 AM
Texas:

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Pictures/Day%20Two%20Press%20Release.pdf)
It also has Ted and Beto tied


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on April 19, 2017, 11:20:17 AM
Obama JA usually slumped in the summer I wonder if the same thing will happen for Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 19, 2017, 01:13:05 PM
Quinnipiac:

40% Approve (+5)
56% Disapprove (-1)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2452)

Interesting that only 20% in his approval gains come from those who previously disapproved. Meaning he primarily only changed the minds of folks who were DK/NA last time, not those who disapproved.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 19, 2017, 01:55:23 PM
Does anyone find it odd that quinnipiac tends to have the most unfavorable approval polls for trump, yet they had the most favorable polls for him in the election?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 19, 2017, 02:26:34 PM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 19, 2017, 02:34:04 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2017, 03:05:33 PM
Texas:

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Pictures/Day%20Two%20Press%20Release.pdf)

(Texas Lyceum)

Note also that Ted Cruz could be having trouble with his Senate seat. There hasn't been a Democratic Senator from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen's fill-in was defeated in the next election.


Maybe Texas is approaching the national average... it's hard to tell because Texas is a tough state to poll. If President Trump is having trouble in Texas, then he is having trouble in almost all regions of America. I don't fully trust any poll of Texas because the state has too many regional divides for reliable polling, and nobody really understands the state.

If Donald Trump should lose this state in 2020, then he is losing 'bigly', as the state is the difference between about 400 and 440 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President.   


Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states.


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  




Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 19, 2017, 03:16:13 PM
Gallup, 19 April

42% (+1)
52% (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on April 19, 2017, 03:26:35 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Doimper on April 19, 2017, 03:29:52 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2017, 03:32:00 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

I would be quieter as a businessman, I would have much different taste in furnishings, I would be better read, and I would be a very different President.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on April 19, 2017, 03:33:05 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2017, 03:38:50 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

There are far better white males in which to have an 'emotional investment' than Donald Trump. I prefer political leaders who act 60 (like Barack Obama) to those who act 20 (like Trump).    


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on April 19, 2017, 03:51:41 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

There are far better white males in which to have an 'emotional investment' than Donald Trump. I prefer political leaders who act 60 (like Barack Obama) than those who act 20 (like Trump).   

I tried that with George W. Bush and John McCain and Mitt Romney but you guys all treated them just as badly.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on April 19, 2017, 03:57:53 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

There are far better white males in which to have an 'emotional investment' than Donald Trump. I prefer political leaders who act 60 (like Barack Obama) than those who act 20 (like Trump).   

I tried that with George W. Bush and John McCain and Mitt Romney but you guys all treated them just as badly.

Why are you liberals so mean to my favorite war criminal :(

So much for the tolerant left.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2017, 04:02:39 PM
Mitt Romney would be a huge improvement over Donald Trump. Americans should have heeded his advice about Donald Trump a year ago.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 19, 2017, 04:03:03 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

"For we brought nothing into the world, and we cannot take anything out of the world. But if we have food and clothing, with these we will be content. But those who desire to be rich fall into temptation, into a snare, into many senseless and harmful desires that plunge people into ruin and destruction. For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evils. It is through this craving that some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pangs."

- 1 Timothy 6:7-10


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 19, 2017, 04:19:41 PM
Yougov, April 15-18
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/csm5blp5g2/econToplines.pdf


All Adults:
41% (+1)
49% (-1)


RV:
44% (+1)
50% (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on April 19, 2017, 05:04:18 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

This is the most pathetic thing I've ever read in my life. I sh**t you not.

You should be proud to have a Republican President from your state of New York.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2017, 05:46:15 PM
Quote
He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Wrestlemania? Not impressed, as I would never watch the show. I'll take happy obscurity over dubious fame any day. Money beyond belief? A true test of character is that one does not need a huge amount of money for validation of the Self. Second wife, and he has paid for some abortions. Again, if one is ditching spouses when they no longer look like centerfolds, one has a problem of loyalty. Lots of people in all classes have wonderful grandchildren. A mansion? not needing one is more evidence of being down-to-earth. Casinos? You know those -- places in which to fleece suckers. That's not my taste. A private jet? A reasonable investment if one is rich and has practical uses for one, like examining one's oil or ranching interests.

If by some chance I had become President, I would have done so as a conventional politician -- city councilman to Mayor to Congressional Representative to Senator in the meantime. Maybe through the lower house of the State legislature to the Upper House through Governor. I am a poor speaker mostly because I have a slow cadence and a pitch in the baritone range that easily gets drowned out.  That also precludes Asperger's, which has me.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 19, 2017, 06:09:29 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

So you want to be an old fat white man who is a trust fund baby who angrily lashes out at people and is married to a woman who is solely there so she can inherit his money when he dies and you revere a sexual harasser.

Apparently to you getting laid, being rich, and getting away with ripping off people is the good life.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 19, 2017, 06:32:16 PM
Trump seems to have SLIGHTLY (maybe noise) to around 41-43% approval. Still piss poor, but not apocalyptic.

Some sort of victory could maybe short term push him to 45%, but Calfiornia alone will keep him below 50% ever in ratings.

In fact, harry enten estimates that if a republican doesn't do better than 35% in california and still wins the WH, he/she will never be above water in approval rating.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 19, 2017, 09:01:54 PM
Trump seems to have SLIGHTLY (maybe noise) to around 41-43% approval. Still piss poor, but not apocalyptic.

Some sort of victory could maybe short term push him to 45%, but Calfiornia alone will keep him below 50% ever in ratings.

In fact, harry enten estimates that if a republican doesn't do better than 35% in california and still wins the WH, he/she will never be above water in approval rating.

Doesn't bode well for the GOP. It means Trump is also below 35% in California, which mirrors his 32% vote share in there.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 20, 2017, 09:38:13 AM
PPP:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50%

Best question asked in this poll:

Which do you have a higher opinion of: United Airlines or Donald Trump?

United Airlines 42%
Donald Trump 40%
Not Sure 18%

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_42017.pdf)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 20, 2017, 09:55:52 AM
^^^

PPP, April 17-18 compared to March 27-28

RV, Approval
43% (+3)
50% (-3)

RV, Favorability
43 (+2)
53 (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 20, 2017, 09:59:19 AM
icitizen, April 17-18 compared to April 10-12.
https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-april-17-18-2017/

All Adults:
34% (-1)
65% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 20, 2017, 10:46:24 AM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 20, 2017, 11:03:20 AM
PPP:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50%

Best question asked in this poll:

Which do you have a higher opinion of: United Airlines or Donald Trump?

United Airlines 42%
Donald Trump 40%
Not Sure 18%

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_42017.pdf)


I wonder if this poll sheds some light on recent special elections. The enthusiasm gap is huge, but the actual generic ballot question is only giving Democrats a 6% lead. This sounds like a lot, but not so much after you consider that Democrats tend to underperform that poll. It's nothing like the 2006/2008 numbers.

My point being that recent special elections clearly show a lot of enthusiasm, which has helped narrow the gap, but enough of the public hasn't turned against Republicans yet to flip the possibly flip the House next year. Though, not to say that I don't think this poll can get to where we need by next October.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 20, 2017, 11:24:22 AM
PPP:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50%

Best question asked in this poll:

Which do you have a higher opinion of: United Airlines or Donald Trump?

United Airlines 42%
Donald Trump 40%
Not Sure 18%

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_42017.pdf)

lmao on United Airlines


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 20, 2017, 12:39:58 PM
PPP:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50%

Best question asked in this poll:

Which do you have a higher opinion of: United Airlines or Donald Trump?

United Airlines 42%
Donald Trump 40%
Not Sure 18%

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_42017.pdf)


I wonder if this poll sheds some light on recent special elections. The enthusiasm gap is huge, but the actual generic ballot question is only giving Democrats a 6% lead. This sounds like a lot, but not so much after you consider that Democrats tend to underperform that poll. It's nothing like the 2006/2008 numbers.

My point being that recent special elections clearly show a lot of enthusiasm, which has helped narrow the gap, but enough of the public hasn't turned against Republicans yet to flip the possibly flip the House next year. Though, not to say that I don't think this poll can get to where we need by next October.

A 6 point generic House ballot lead for the Dems actually isn’t much different from the “disapprove” minus “approve” spread on Trump’s job approval in this very poll (which is 7 points, not far off from the HuffPo average).  So I wouldn't say that people have turned on Trump more than the GOP as a whole so much as that they haven't done so in sufficient numbers.  The GOP simply has a significant structural advantage in the House, such that the Dems winning the national popular vote by 7 points just isn't enough for them to get a majority of seats.  Never mind "underperforming" a 6 or a 7 point lead, if that's where they're polling.  They can straight up win nationally by 7 points, and it's not enough for a House majority.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 20, 2017, 01:13:01 PM
Gallup, 20 April

43% (+1)
50% (-2)

I wonder if it is enough for getting 45% in Gallup if Trump just shuts the f%%k up (=no scandals of Obama-tapped-my-phones level).

Trump is truly king of the the low expectations ::)

P.S. It just might be a noise; I know that.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 20, 2017, 01:33:05 PM
Gallup, 20 April

43% (+1)
50% (-2)

I wonder if it is enough for getting 45% in Gallup if Trump just shuts the f%%k up (=no scandals of Obama-tapped-my-phones level).

Trump is truly king of the the low expectations ::)

P.S. It just might be a noise; I know that.

When he's quiet, he's around 43-45... when he's loud, he's at or below 40.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 20, 2017, 01:39:19 PM
Gallup, 20 April

43% (+1)
50% (-2)

I wonder if it is enough for getting 45% in Gallup if Trump just shuts the f%%k up (=no scandals of Obama-tapped-my-phones level).

Trump is truly king of the the low expectations ::)

P.S. It just might be a noise; I know that.

When he's quiet, he's around 43-45... when he's loud, he's at or below 40.

But if (a big if) he keeps quiet in more than 2-3 weeks we are entering uncharted territory.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 20, 2017, 05:16:06 PM
When he's quiet, he's around 43-45... when he's loud, he's at or below 40.

I suspect that Ivanka started to check daddy's tweets, before he sends them away. That's probably one of her main tasks as "Assistant to the President".


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 20, 2017, 09:51:19 PM
Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 13-15:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-8833-da28-af5b-b93bd7840001

Trump job approval/disapproval:
48/45% for +3%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +12
Northeast: -11
South: +9
West: -9

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -59
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -4
$50-100k: +7
over $100k: +18

8% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  12% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 20, 2017, 09:55:55 PM
At a 6% advantage, Democrats win back the House only if they can win back districts that swung heavily against them in states like Arkansas and Georgia that used to lean Democratic, generally where gerrymandering is irrelevant. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on April 20, 2017, 10:59:00 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

This is the most pathetic thing I've ever read in my life. I sh**t you not.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2017, 02:50:22 AM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys

He represents everything alot of men wish we were.

Famous, on TV shows, in films, cameo appearances from Wrestlemania to The Jeffersons. More gorgeous women then most men will ever make love to in our lives. Money beyond belief. A gorgeous wife, beautiful successful surprisingly down to Earth children. Wonderful grandchildren. Mansions and casinos and private jets. Now he's topped it off by being the President of the United States.

Who WOULDN'T want to be Donald Trump? I sure as hell would love to be in his shoes.

Your support for Trump is a consequence of your own insecurities? What a surprise.

Sure? Why not? If African Americans can have "emotional investment" in Barack Obama, why can't I have it in Donald Trump?

Barack Obama got overwhelming percentages of the Jewish, Latino, and Asian votes. He is neither Jewish, Latino, nor Asian. In fact he won unambiguous majorities in the 2008 and 2012 elections. It is safe to say that millions of people voted for him for reasons other than his ethnicity.

Donald Trump is a thoroughly-awful person. The crotch-grabbing is enough of a reason for me to reject him for President. But go ahead and have an emotional stake in him. Many people have questionable heroes like tyrants, mobsters, swindlers, and terrorists.

If you are a conservative you have plenty of alternatives to Donald Trump as a hero. It troubles me that he mentioned tyrants as people that he admired. He could have offered Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan.   

Quote
When he had a Christmas time victory tour rally, after he defeated Hillary Clinton in December, he went on a mini-rant about how Time's "PERSON OF THE YEAR" used to be called "MAN OF THE YEAR". I stared at the CNN screen and thought, "Oh my God, it's me." LOL

A 'victory tour' -- he could have been consulting experts on how to staff the White House, how to deal with Congress, etc. ...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 21, 2017, 11:32:59 AM
^^^^^^^^

Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 13-15 vs April 6-9:

RV
48% (-/-)
45% (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 21, 2017, 11:36:19 AM
ARG, April 17-20 vs March 17-20
http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

All Adults:
39 (-2)
56 (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 21, 2017, 01:22:27 PM
ARG, April 17-20 vs March 17-20
http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

All Adults:
39 (-2)
56 (+2)

arg is still around? Didn't they come out after the wisconsin primary and admit their people forgot to poll waukesha county?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 21, 2017, 02:06:29 PM
Gallup

43% (-/-)
51% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 21, 2017, 02:44:45 PM
SurveyMonkey, April 14-20 vs April 7-13
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArRWdXM01kaUpFYzg/view

All Adults:
45% (-/-)
54% (-1)

RV:
46% (-/-)
53% (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 22, 2017, 02:22:12 PM
Gallup (April 21st)

42% (-1)
52% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 22, 2017, 11:22:49 PM
The man really just builds his support around stupid white guys
No non-college white women voted for him too not just stupid white guys.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 22, 2017, 11:30:14 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Shadows on April 22, 2017, 11:55:30 PM
Yea there's nothing to suggest right now that there will be a recession unless Trump screws up North Korea & they damage South Korea & Japan, which will almost guarantee a global recession! But other that, it's wishful thinking !


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 22, 2017, 11:57:53 PM
ABC:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Obama Comparison:

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 22, 2017, 11:58:49 PM
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

Clearly he has sinister plans for world domination, and a recession is how they begin.

But seriously, going without a recession (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States) until late 2020 would be a historical record. Even considering that expansions have gotten longer over the past few decades, it just doesn't seem likely that one won't happen prior to the next presidential election. I know these don't happen because of "old age" or something silly like that, but one still should respect the trends we have up to this point.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Shadows on April 23, 2017, 12:19:26 AM
There is nothing in the trends which shows that there WOULD be an incoming recession, at best it is 50-50. There was no recession during the end of Reagan's term. No recession, at the end of Clinton's term. None at the end of Obama's term.

H.W. had a recession for a small period & ofcourse the whole economy collapsed in 2007. There are no massive structural fault lines, the economy has kind of recovered for 7-8 years slowly.

Ofcourse Trump's de-regulation & stupid foreign policies "COULD" do it though !
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 23, 2017, 12:29:16 AM
It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 23, 2017, 01:10:48 AM
It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.


Something tells me they aren't thinking that Democratic rule will be a thing for a certain period of time because "MUH people become Republican with age"

No. Occam's razor. They simply haven't thought that far ahead and taking it day by day. There is no strategic long term thinking in the Republican Party right now. There's doing things now and hoping that the future works out somehow.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2017, 05:21:20 AM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 23, 2017, 06:21:33 AM


Quote
As noted, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters. Among those who report having voted for him in November, 96 percent today say it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it. And if a rerun of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote among 2016 voters.

Why? Because Dems are out of touch.

Quote
As mentioned, Trump's challenges don't mean the opposition is in good shape. In March 2014, 48 percent of Americans said the Democratic Party was out of touch with the concerns of most people. Today 67 percent say so. And the biggest change has occurred chiefly among the party's own typical loyalists, with "out of touch" ratings up 33 points among liberals, 30 points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 26 points among moderates and nonwhites alike.

Of course it is just one poll, but...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on April 23, 2017, 07:43:39 AM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

The business cycle very rarely goes more than a decade without a recession. I say rarely because I haven't looked at recessions prior to 1920. But here; 1920, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1948, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1979, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2008, (?).

You'll notice that our last recession ended in 2010. It's highly unlikely that President Trump will not weather a recession by that period. Possible, but very unlikely.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 23, 2017, 08:34:13 AM
NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted April 17-20:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/public-gives-trump-low-marks-first-100-days-nbc-news-n749756

()

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 23, 2017, 11:00:09 AM


Quote
As noted, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters. Among those who report having voted for him in November, 96 percent today say it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it. And if a rerun of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote among 2016 voters.

Why? Because Dems are out of touch.

Quote
As mentioned, Trump's challenges don't mean the opposition is in good shape. In March 2014, 48 percent of Americans said the Democratic Party was out of touch with the concerns of most people. Today 67 percent say so. And the biggest change has occurred chiefly among the party's own typical loyalists, with "out of touch" ratings up 33 points among liberals, 30 points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 26 points among moderates and nonwhites alike.

Of course it is just one poll, but...

I think that's the danger of reading too much into these approval rating polls.  A sizable number of Americans may not like Trump, or even think he's doing a bad job as president, and still vote for him in 2020 if they think they have no alternative in the opposition.  That's why it is critical the Dems run on something other than opposing Trump.

That said, I think one of the reasons for the lack of buyer's remorse is the prospect of President Clinton for Trump voters.  If Dems had put up someone people actually like, then those numbers might be a bigger cause for worry.

It might also be that people just don't like to admit they were wrong.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 23, 2017, 01:09:43 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 23, 2017, 01:13:52 PM
It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

I don't see Clinton appointees like Breyer or Ginsberg retiring off the bench when Trump is still President. Ginsberg should have probably just retired when Obama(i.e. a Democrat Presidential Administration) was in office but she didn't.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 23, 2017, 02:20:40 PM
Gallup

40% (-2)
54% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2017, 04:28:50 PM
It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

I don't see Clinton appointees like Breyer or Ginsberg retiring off the bench when Trump is still President. Ginsberg should have probably just retired when Obama(i.e. a Democrat Presidential Administration) was in office but she didn't.

They're not not going to retire when a President believes that government rightly represents wealth and economic power or that the prohibition of "cruel and unusual punishment"  stops just short of burning at the stake. Nobody so far left as Barry Goldwater really trusts this President.  

Right-wing rule will be nasty.  Donald Trump makes Calvin Coolidge look like a liberal except perhaps on race.    


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: emailking on April 24, 2017, 07:28:59 AM
The business cycle very rarely goes more than a decade without a recession. I say rarely because I haven't looked at recessions prior to 1920. But here; 1920, 1929, 1937, 1945, 1948, 1958, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1979, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2008, (?).

You'll notice that our last recession ended in 2010. It's highly unlikely that President Trump will not weather a recession by that period. Possible, but very unlikely.

I think it depends whether the length of growth increases the chance of a recession. Otherwise, this might be faulty logic, akin to assuming that a coin coming up heads many times in a row increases the chance that it will come up tails soon, when it doesn't.

There may be correlations between the chance of recession and the length of growth, but do we really know enough about what causes recessions to assume one is very likely in the next few years, beyond simply noticing the duration since the last recession?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 24, 2017, 08:26:45 AM
When it comes to a possible recession we do have the issue of Trump wanting to bring back coal/manufacturing jobs when the economy is moving green an normally when a president is clashing with the economic environment it has bad results (Hoover/Carter)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 24, 2017, 09:02:11 AM
Trump's rebound seems to be fading a bit.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 24, 2017, 10:01:37 AM
Rasmussen (4/24/17)

Approve: 51% (+2)
Dissaprove: 49% (-2)

Ticking up but strongly approve/dissaprove is -7.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 24, 2017, 10:35:17 AM
Trump says the ABC and NBC polls are "fake news" because they were "totally wrong in the General E" (never mind the fact that ABC/WaPo was only a point off in their final poll, because who cares about the truth?).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 24, 2017, 12:18:51 PM
Today's Gallup

40% (-/-)
54% (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2017, 02:46:02 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 24, 2017, 03:43:29 PM
National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

Meh, I'd dispute that. The GOP under Bush (2005-2007) had it better. Their dream Congress would have been one that a President Hillary Clinton would have delivered in the 2018 midterm, which combined with further gains + the presidency in 2020 would have given them a lot more power to push through their priorities.

As it stands now, it's easy to see the GOP being only minimally productive under Trump, especially if Democrats take back the House or at least make substantial gains in 2018.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2017, 10:14:01 PM
National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

Meh, I'd dispute that. The GOP under Bush (2005-2007) had it better. Their dream Congress would have been one that a President Hillary Clinton would have delivered in the 2018 midterm, which combined with further gains + the presidency in 2020 would have given them a lot more power to push through their priorities.

As it stands now, it's easy to see the GOP being only minimally productive under Trump, especially if Democrats take back the House or at least make substantial gains in 2018.

I hope that you are right. I saw such legislation pass the Michigan Snake legislature in a state known for some of the most powerful unions ever. if such can pass in Michigan it can pass nationally.

Corporate America hates unions. It wants helpless cheap labor, and I expect Corporate America to stop at nothing toward that end.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: vote for pedro on April 25, 2017, 01:21:57 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

Quote
Asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 43 say they would support Trump and 40 percent say Clinton.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 25, 2017, 01:30:11 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

Quote
Asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 43 say they would support Trump and 40 percent say Clinton.

Aside: I guarantee you that the 8% of the electorate who voted for Clinton in November who wouldn't now are still not inclined to vote for him in 2020. Most of these people are probably upset Bernie supporters

It also says that they voted Hillary 46-43. She's doing 6 points worse already.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 25, 2017, 09:39:19 AM
Rasmussen (4/25/17) Trump CRASHES

Approve: 47% (-4)
Dissaprove: 53% (+4)

Rasmussen seems to be fluctuating recently.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 25, 2017, 09:41:06 AM
Rasmussen

Total, -6:
47% (-4)
53% (+4)

Strongly, -12:
30 (-2)
42 (+3)

EDIT: second...


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 25, 2017, 10:50:10 AM
Rassy is trash regardless of what is shows


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 25, 2017, 11:26:09 AM
Honest question: how does rasmussen get funding? Who would willingly choose to fund it?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 25, 2017, 12:14:35 PM
Today's Gallup 4/25/17

40% (-/-)
55% (+1)

looks like 40 could be his "quiet" Gallup baseline, not 42-43.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on April 25, 2017, 12:30:47 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/nearing-100-days-trumps-approval-at-record-lows-but-his-base-is-holding/2017/04/22/a513a466-26b4-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1202am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4d40b6f10e85

Buried in the 26th paragraph:

Quote
Asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 43 say they would support Trump and 40 percent say Clinton.

Aside: I guarantee you that the 8% of the electorate who voted for Clinton in November who wouldn't now are still not inclined to vote for him in 2020. Most of these people are probably upset Bernie supporters

It also says that they voted Hillary 46-43. She's doing 6 points worse already.

People don't want to vote for someone perceived as a loser. It doesn't matter because Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee again barring some total revolution in her image.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2017, 01:05:09 PM
Rasmussen (4/25/17) Trump CRASHES

Approve: 47% (-4)
Dissaprove: 53% (+4)

Rasmussen seems to be fluctuating recently.

Is it possible to win a Presidential election if one has 53% disapproval?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 25, 2017, 06:16:09 PM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 25, 2017, 06:56:51 PM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


It's interesting that Wisconsin is so much worse for Trump than the others.  Polling outlier or some actually significant factor in WI?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 25, 2017, 07:00:40 PM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


It's interesting that Wisconsin is so much worse for Trump than the others.  Polling outlier or some actually significant factor in WI?

Maybe. Perhaps those Obama-Trump voters are less likely to turnout in midterms as well.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on April 25, 2017, 07:16:21 PM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


We've seen Trump underwater like this in Wisconsin before so that -7 margin isn't surprising to me. I am skeptical of Ohio since we seen him not doing well in Iowa (which swung big league for Trump). FL seems about right to me.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 25, 2017, 07:45:11 PM
I think it's best to take that poll with a grain of salt.  It's still too early to determine who the "likely" voters in the 2018 midterms will be.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on April 26, 2017, 06:49:54 AM
CBS:

41% Approve (-2)
53% Disapprove (+4)

Source (https://www.scribd.com/document/346403451/Toplines-100-Days-Approval?secret_password=VtHV9pgFYdF4UdtvTKke)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 26, 2017, 07:01:29 AM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2017, 09:19:50 AM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).     

I saw some loaded questions, typically asking whether President Trump or politicians in Congress lie or are misguided. The observation is basically that they are all crooks, liars, or fools.

These are questions of favorability. Favorability is becoming less relevant as time passes.

This suggests a response about approval:

Quote
Voters are divided on how Trump has done thus far. 34% believe he has been successful, 36% believe he has been unsuccessful, and 30% believe it is too soon to tell. Slightly more than half of Republicans (52%) say Trump has been successful, while 35% believe it is too soon to tell. Floridians are most bullish on Trump (37% successful, 35% unsuccessful), while Badgers are less convinced (27% successful, 40% unsuccessful).

This isn't quite approval, but it shows a few things. If Floridians are most 'bullish' on President Trump, then this measure is likely similar for Ohio and less so for Pennsylvania (but we don't know). We have a measure for  Wisconsin, and it does not look good.

So I can get an estimate of 37% Ohio approval for  President Trump. That's the only approval rating that I can use, as I have nothing on Ohio yet. Ohio and Florida are surprisingly similar in their voting. I think that the 37% is reasonable enough for Pennsylvania, but the low estimate in Wisconsin looks suspect. Maybe Wisconsin voters are getting unusually sick of Donald Trump and the GOP  -- including their very right-wing Governor.

Nobody can now predict how successful President Trump will be at this stage except to expect more of the same, as I do. He seems a rigid thinker, and I expect him to be the same extremist as he has governed so far. I'll go with the 37% for Ohio as an estimate of approval for now because beggars can't be choosers.  I will not change my ratings for the three other states for which I have less 'messy' polls of approval. I can still  show 'favorability' polls that still come out with the caveat that they are generally reliable only when a politician has yet to fully offer and seek implementation of his agenda.   

     


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 26, 2017, 09:41:22 AM
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2017, 09:53:05 AM
Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  






Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 26, 2017, 10:03:13 AM
Rasmussen (4/26/17) Trump down more.

Approve: 46% (-1)

Dissaprove: 54% (+1)

He went from a +2 approval to a -8 in two days.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 26, 2017, 10:55:44 AM
CSB:

41% Approve (-2)
53% Disapprove (+4)

Source (https://www.scribd.com/document/346403451/Toplines-100-Days-Approval?secret_password=VtHV9pgFYdF4UdtvTKke)

you mean CBS


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2017, 10:56:29 AM
Rasmussen has an agenda. Gallup doesn't.

...I'd like to see another Ohio poll. In fact I would like to see fresh polls of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  There were recent polls of Arkansas, Texas, and Utah suggesting  that support for the President has been cratering in states that have been solidly Republican for ten (Arkansas), twenty (Texas) or sixty (Utah) years. The Firehouse poll of Wisconsin (only 27% approval, as I interpret the language) suggests a similar collapse in swing states.

There are states for which I would like to see a fresh approval poll (Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) to see whether there is a general trend as a near-even swing or whether there we have a diminution of partisan polarization as well as a general rejection of what I see as a catastrophic failure by a President.

Am I biased? Sure. I consider Donald Trump an unmitigated disaster as President. But if President Trump had valid solutions for America's ills and to foreign threats, then we would be seeing positive approvals for him in some states  like Colorado and Virginia  that voted against him.    


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 26, 2017, 12:08:03 PM
Gallup

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 26, 2017, 12:17:25 PM

I wonder what's causing his numbers to drop. He hasn't done anything stupid recently

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2017, 12:19:05 PM

I wonder what's causing his numbers to drop. He hasn't done anything stupid recently

()

Going after Obamacare a second time.

Let's see how the tax bill and the ruling on sanctuary cities goes.  The fecal material has yet to hit the fan, at least as polling goes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 26, 2017, 04:30:29 PM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).        
'likely midterm voters' is fine with me, but landline only... It is quite stupid.

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.
And fail with "The Wall" :P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 26, 2017, 06:46:21 PM
97% of Trump voters say they're satisfied with their vote according to that poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 06:52:00 PM
Also worth noting is that Trump's topline approval numbers according to the Fox poll are 45% approve to 48% disapprove.  While not exactly good, that's dramatically better for him than most other polls out there.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2017, 10:10:27 PM
Who knows who the 'likely voters' are at this point?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 11:04:52 PM
CNN/ORC (Conducted April 22-25):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 54%

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/donald-trump-100-days-poll/index.html


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 27, 2017, 06:34:10 AM
So

Fox News(Registered Voters) April 23-25 compared to March 12-14:
45% (+2)
48% (-3)

CNN  (All adult) April 22-25 compared to March 1-4:
44% (-1)
54% (+2)

CNN  (Registered Voters) April 22-25, first time they present it:
44%
54%

YouGov  (All adult) April 23-25 compared to April 15-18:
42% (+1)
49% (-/-)

YouGov  (Registered Voters) April 23-25 compared to April 15-18:
45% (+1)
49% (-1)

Morning Consult (Registered Voters) April 20-24 compared to April 13-15:
51% (+3)
45% (-/-)

Ipsos  (All adult) April 20-24 compared to April 15-19:
40% (-2)
54% (+1)

Ipsos   (Likely Voters) April 20-24 compared to April 15-19:
43% (-4)
53% (+3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 27, 2017, 11:37:17 AM
97% of Trump voters say they're satisfied with their vote according to that poll.

I wonder if that number is even really fungible, since the method is self selection. Trump voters who wouldn't vote for him again may not be likely poll takers, and may say "don't know" more often than "no"


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2017, 01:27:28 PM
Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:
 (http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-swing-state-voter-study/)
Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

Quote
Between 4/21-4/23, we surveyed 3,491 modeled likely midterm voters in Florida (N = 1,305), Wisconsin (N = 713), Pennsylvania (N = 690), and Ohio (N = 783) via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as anyone having voted in the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout score modeling.


I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).        
'likely midterm voters' is fine with me, but landline only... It is quite stupid.

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.
And fail with "The Wall" :P


It is wisest to drop a political failure. He'd be wiser to go after something else that the Ruling Elite wants -- like abolition of the minimum wage or evisceration of labor unions. It might be an unpopular measure but a political success. But we practically live in a dictatorship now. Practically -- only because of the Clinton-Obama influence on the federal courts.

Opponents cannot cut President Trump's polling numbers as much as the Tea Party could do with Obama... but they don't need to do so as much to make any re-election bid a failure.

Some of the disapproval numbers (mid-50s) portend a smashing defeat in 2020 and quite possibly a Republican loss of the House of Representatives.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on April 27, 2017, 01:30:13 PM
Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2017, 01:41:43 PM
Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 27, 2017, 01:45:26 PM
Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 
Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" aganist Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 27, 2017, 01:47:31 PM
Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 
Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" aganist Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention

Also, don't forget that quite a few people will vote for him despite disapproving of his job performance, because they don't feel they have an alternative in the Democrats.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2017, 02:36:52 PM
Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 
Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" against Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention

40% approval probably means that he can get 46% of the binary vote in a re-election bid, at least if the pattern holds for Presidents holds for Senators and Governors based upon approval numbers at the start of the campaign.  The big question is whether he can get approval in the mid-40s, which is about where Barack Obama was in early 2012 and barely winning a majority of the presidential vote. That was Barack Obama facing one of the strongest challengers that an incumbent ever faced.

If Donald Trump is around 40% in his approval rating, then he stands to lose 54-46 without considering third-party nominees. And that's facing a challenger stronger than Hillary Clinton.

Paradoxically that would allow him about as much of the vote as he got in 2016 -- but that would not be enough with which to win.

The question is how he can get his approval ratings to the mid-40s by early 2020 to have a meaningful chance to win re-election with a solid campaign against an average challenger. To even get there he must avoid any economic meltdown, personal scandal (financial or sexual),  international catastrophe, or bungling of a natural disaster.

You tell me. I lack the imagination. I can;t see him leading America into some new thought. Maybe Republicans can legislate voting laws to their corrupt advantage -- which would be a catastrophe for American democracy which would be moribund until a revolution or utter defeat and occupation. That would remind me of a "Stain This Carpet" contest in which people put stains on a carpet sample and sent it in for testing. One example was "battery acid" which was disqualified because the acid the carpet fiber. It looked very bad, nonetheless.

Beware of political elites smearing our democratic fabric with the equivalent of sulfuric acid on behalf of the politicians you like for now. People that you care about might vanish for no reason and have nasty deaths by execution or being worked to exhaustion on starvation rations. 

At this stage I cannot see how Republicans can re-elect the President in 2020 without cheating.

Democrats are likely to have a stronger challenger and face a very tainted President.  Obama barely won despite being an above-average President. Donald Trump is simply awful. Replace Donald Trump with Mitt Romney in some alternate universe, and I see Mitt Romney as a sure winner in 2020.  But we are all stuck with Donald Trump. I won;t claim to have the last laugh -- laughing at the catastrophe that is the Trump Presidency is like laughing at a fire burning a historical building.       
 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 27, 2017, 03:23:37 PM
40% approval probably means that he can get 46% of the binary vote in a re-election bid, at least if the pattern holds for Presidents holds for Senators and Governors based upon approval numbers at the start of the campaign.  The big question is whether he can get approval in the mid-40s, which is about where Barack Obama was in early 2012 and barely winning a majority of the presidential vote. That was Barack Obama facing one of the strongest challengers that an incumbent ever faced.

If Donald Trump is around 40% in his approval rating, then he stands to lose 54-46 without considering third-party nominees. And that's facing a challenger stronger than Hillary Clinton.

According to 538 his approval rating among All Adults is about 41%, but
it is 44% among LV/RV. If the number are about the same in 2020, he has pretty good shot..


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 27, 2017, 03:30:54 PM
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll,  April 17-23 compared to March 28 - April 3

http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-Kaiser-Health-Tracking%20Poll-Late-April-2017-The-Future-of-the-ACA-and-Health-Care-and-the-Budget


All adults:
45% (+4)
50% (-5)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on April 28, 2017, 12:31:02 PM
Gallup 4/25-4/27

Disapprove 52 (-3)
Approve 43 (+3)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: windjammer on April 28, 2017, 08:06:39 PM
Why is he suddenly becoming more popular?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 28, 2017, 08:20:09 PM

The media has set expectations so low for him that if he doesn't do something absolutely horrendous for a week, he gets a significant bump. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 28, 2017, 08:25:07 PM
Socialism would recession-proof the economy.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 28, 2017, 11:31:19 PM

The media has set expectations so low for him that if he doesn't do something absolutely horrendous for a week, he gets a significant bump. 

The media is broken. They belong to be as popular as Congress until Cable TV finally dies altogether.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on April 28, 2017, 11:38:10 PM
He has a high floor with his Republican base staying solidly in his corner.

The sudden uptick must come from the fact that his administration is starting to "normalize" so to speak. His first 3-4 weeks felt like decades to some people including me. People feel a lot more relaxed now and have successfully adjusted to this new normal.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 29, 2017, 10:57:11 AM
Actually, it looks more like a fluctuation about the mean (of 40-41% for all adults).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on April 29, 2017, 12:08:59 PM
Gallup

Approve: 43% (nc)
Disapprove: 51% (-1%)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The Free North on April 29, 2017, 12:16:20 PM
Socialism would recession-proof the economy.

Uh, what?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 29, 2017, 05:09:06 PM
Trump's rebound seems to be fading a bit.
There was a rebound?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 29, 2017, 05:10:04 PM
When it comes to a possible recession we do have the issue of Trump wanting to bring back coal/manufacturing jobs when the economy is moving green an normally when a president is clashing with the economic environment it has bad results (Hoover/Carter)
The country isn't "going green" really fast at all.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: hopper on April 29, 2017, 05:15:20 PM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.
I don't think Congressional Republicans are gonna do "National Right to Work" Legislation but I could always be wrong. They aren't abolishing the Federal Minimum Wage. MSM would have a lot of fun with that if they abolished the Federal Minimum Wage. Still there no 60 Votes in the US Senate to do pass these 2 things. You need 60 Votes.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 30, 2017, 11:37:16 AM
Quote
Poll: Minnesotans give Donald Trump 40% approval rating. 51% Dissaprove

Trump has the lowest first 100 days polling in Minnesota history:

()

http://www.startribune.com/poll-minnesotans-give-donald-trump-40-approval-rating/420823893/

Good thing Minnesota made the right choice.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 30, 2017, 11:45:56 AM
So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.
Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.
True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...
Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

All bull markets come to an end. Count on Republican efforts to cut wages to stimulate profits; by doing so they cut the consumer economy.

How are Republicans going to cut wages? There is no 60 Republican votes in the US Senate to do that even if they wanted to cut wages.

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.
I don't think Congressional Republicans are gonna do "National Right to Work" Legislation but I could always be wrong. They aren't abolishing the Federal Minimum Wage. MSM would have a lot of fun with that if they abolished the Federal Minimum Wage. Still there no 60 Votes in the US Senate to do pass these 2 things. You need 60 Votes.

I hope that I am wrong about that conjecture. The Republican Party and its political fronts (Club for Growth, Freedom Works!, etc.) -- are extremely hostile to labor unions. I can imagine Senate Republicans putting an end to the filibuster to achieve the corporate dream of cheap labor that it can work on compulsory, unpaid subbotniks just to meet an order.  Big Business would love to drive wages down by compelling workers to submit to the power of corporate bureaucracies to exploit the bargaining weaknesses of individual workers.

Could they get away with it? Nothing could more promote strikes and union organizing. The biggest benefit of union membership is collective bargaining that ensures that people get paid alike for similar jobs. This is most obvious with machine-paced work, whether the machine be an assembly line or a computer.    


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on April 30, 2017, 03:03:27 PM
Morning Call / Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania (http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-poll-trump-100-days-20170428-story.html):

39% Approve
54% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on April 30, 2017, 10:18:14 PM
I doubt he'd win PA again if that poll is in the vicinity of being accurate, but I doubt we see a 2008-style Democratic performance there again. Western PA/the T is basically Alabama now.

Naw -- more like Kentucky. Away from the Scranton-Harrisburg-Philadelphia triangle and greater Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is very thinly populated, so it weights Pennsylvania's vote about like the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

I look at the 39% approval rating as something so poor that Trump can hardly go that low. At this point that looks worse than Goldwater's 1964 performance (34.70%) in Pennsylvania. 

...I wonder how long it will be before Appalachia starts recognizing the Republican Party for having done little for them. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Beet on April 30, 2017, 10:27:14 PM
I doubt he'd win PA again if that poll is in the vicinity of being accurate, but I doubt we see a 2008-style Democratic performance there again. Western PA/the T is basically Alabama now.

Naw -- more like Kentucky. Away from the Scranton-Harrisburg-Philadelphia triangle and greater Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is very thinly populated, so it weights Pennsylvania's vote about like the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

I look at the 39% approval rating as something so poor that Trump can hardly go that low. At this point that looks worse than Goldwater's 1964 performance (34.70%) in Pennsylvania. 

...I wonder how long it will be before Appalachia starts recognizing the Republican Party for having done little for them. 

The Philadelphia metro area casts only 2 million votes or about 33% of the total. Even if you add Scranton, Harrisburg and the more remote suburbs you have 3 million, but still only half the total statewide vote.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 01, 2017, 12:10:44 PM
Gallup

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2017, 04:18:36 PM
Minnesota was one of the barest losses for Donald Trump in 2016.

Quote
As Trump reaches the 100-day mark in the White House, only 40 percent of voters in the state approve of the job he is doing, a historic low, while 51 percent disapprove, the poll found. Only 44 percent of those polled believe that Trump is generally truthful.

http://www.startribune.com/poll-minnesotans-give-donald-trump-40-approval-rating/420823893/
 

Morning Call / Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania (http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-poll-trump-100-days-20170428-story.html):

39% Approve
54% Disapprove

Pennsylvania may have been a one-time charm for the GOP in 2016. If President Trump can;t get the disapproval numbers below 54%, then he risks losing Pennsylvania by double digits in 2020.

Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  







Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on May 01, 2017, 07:23:55 PM
Based on the map by pbrower2a the Norheast would be a catastrophe for Trump. I'm a bit surprised he's polling better in Minnesota than Pennsylvania or Virginia, but that does align with the Midwest's trend towards Trump in recent polling and the Northeast's strong opposition to him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on May 01, 2017, 07:54:56 PM
That approval map looks a lot like Hillary's polling map in parts of the summer. It's basically the 2016 election if sexism, misogyny, and double standards didn't exist.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2017, 10:52:48 PM
Based on the map by pbrower2a the Northeast would be a catastrophe for Trump. I'm a bit surprised he's polling better in Minnesota than Pennsylvania or Virginia, but that does align with the Midwest's trend towards Trump in recent polling and the Northeast's strong opposition to him.

...But he still loses  all the states bordering the Great Lakes except perhaps Indiana.  I'm not sure about him winning Indiana at this point. Not counting New York and Pennsylvania, that's 94 electoral votes right there. Add the states that border or lie to the north and east of the Potomac, that's another 114 -- 208 before you think of anything to the south or west of those states.

Donald Trump loses in a landslide in a re-election bid unless he cleans up his very bad act.

That approval map looks a lot like Hillary's polling map in parts of the summer. It's basically the 2016 election if sexism, misogyny, and double standards didn't exist.

That stuff might not play so well in 2020. President Trump played to mass vulgarity in order to win support of the common man and ended up stabbing him in the back.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 02, 2017, 12:39:53 PM
Gallup, All Adults

42% (+1)
54% (-1)


Trump keeps bouncing around 41% (All Adults).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 02, 2017, 01:06:15 PM
At this point, "adults" is adequate. We have no idea what people will vote in 2020. Will we have an electorate more like that of 2008 or of 2016?

Five years ago, both of my parents could have been seen as 'likely voters' because they consistently voted in elections. They died, and so they did not vote. 

Just a reminder.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on May 02, 2017, 04:13:06 PM
Magellan Strategies (R) poll of Colorado: (http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2018-voter-opinion-survey/)

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 02, 2017, 04:15:33 PM
I find it hard to believe he's just barely underwater in a state that voted for Hillary.  Probably best to take that poll with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Hmm, now that I'm taking a closer look at the crosstabs, does it really make sense that he's only down by 2 points overall when he's doing about as badly with Democrats as he is doing well with Republicans, and is down 13 points with unaffiliateds?  I'm thinking their sampling distribution might just be off.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 02, 2017, 04:26:29 PM
I find it hard to believe he's just barely underwater in a state that voted for Hillary.  Probably best to take that poll with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Hmm, now that I'm taking a closer look at the crosstabs, does it really make sense that he's only down by 2 points overall when he's doing about as badly with Democrats as he is doing well with Republicans, and is down 13 points with unaffiliateds?  I'm thinking their sampling distribution might just be off.

Magellan has always had an R bias, although not a huge one.  I think the key factor in this result is:

Quote
The survey results are weighted to reflect the likely voter turnout demographics of a non-Presidential, mid-term election in Colorado.

If this was weighted to match turnout demographics from past midterms, it may be more R-friendly than 2018 is likely to be.   Something that supports this idea: they have Congressional approval at 34-58.  Although underwater, this is still much friendlier to Congress than recent national polls.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on May 02, 2017, 04:30:11 PM
Colorado has a pretty equal D/R/I registration spread right? So -77 D, +74 R and -13 I wouldn't give just -2% unless there's some serious pro-rated weighing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 02, 2017, 07:50:29 PM
Magellan Strategies (R) poll of Colorado: (http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2018-voter-opinion-survey/)

()


"Likely 2018 voters" probably means  much the same electorate as in 2010 or 2014, something likely not as relevant with a Republican nominee as with a Democratic nominee. For any Hou8se or Senate race a model for 2006 (yes, ten years ago) might even be more relevant than one for 2010 or 2014.

The President's Party usually loses big in a midterm election, and the President this time is not Barack Obama.  I am guessing that with a 2012-style electorate, which would be more generous for Democrats, Donald Trump would be lucky to get anything more than 47% of the binary vote in Colorado. 

So who will be the voters of 2020? Some of them are now fourteen years old.     


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 02, 2017, 08:27:08 PM
Colorado, Magellan Strategies (which had a very strong R bias in polling):

47-49, likely voters in the midterm (probably a 2010 or 2014 model).

Should Donald Trump be a reasonably-successful President, he then will flip Colorado in 2020. Colorado would go back to being slightly, but decisively, red (Atlas blue).  It's hard to believe now, but Colorado went only once for a Democratic nominee for President between the years 1964 (LBJ blowout) and 2008 (near-landslide for Obama), and in such a case Colorado would go back to the sort of state that it was from 1968 to 2004 -- the sort of state that teases Democrats but usually goes Republicans in a national election best described as somewhat-close .

But unless Donald Trump should be wildly successful as President, both 20`8 and 2020 are likely to be rough years for the GOP, including in Colorado. The relevant model for a midterm for 2018 is more likely 2006 than 2010 or 2014.  For a Presidential year, 2016 was an unusually poor year for a Republican in a close election in Colorado. Demographic change can change a state.

It doesn't make sense that Coloradans should see Trump more sympathetically in Texas than in Colorado.... I'm guessing at this point that President Trump could consider himself lucky to get 47% of the vote in Colorado in 2020 even if political realities do not get worse for him.  It may be hard to believe, but this is the first approval poll of Colorado. I expect more.  

Gravis, Ohio . Poll of likely primary voters for 2018:

Trump favorable-unfavorable 49-43. Remember that primary voters tend to lean Republican in statewide elections. ,

I would not be surprised if more state polls come out on Wednesday.
 
Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  







Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 03, 2017, 12:47:58 PM
Gallup (May 2nd)

42% Approve (-/-)
52% Disapprove (-2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 03, 2017, 04:17:42 PM
Ipsos, April 27-May 1  compared to April 22-26

All Adults:
44 (+2)
51 (-2)

LV:
44 (-/-)
52 (-/-)


Yougov, April 29-May 2  compared to April 23-25
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eh981oefng/econToplines.pdf

All Adults:
43 (+1)
47 (-2)

RV:
46 (+1)
47 (-2)


Overall, what grade would you give the men listed below for the first 100 days of their
presidencies?

                               A       B       C     D       F
Donald Trump          17% 22%   18% 13%   30%
Barack Obama         19% 29%   21% 10%   21%
George W. Bush        8%  29%   41% 13%   8%
Ronald Reagan         26% 34%   26%  9%    5%
Franklin Roosevelt    28% 37%    25% 6%    4%

49. If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the
district where you live?

The Democratic Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
The Republican Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
I would not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%


52. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?
                       Very fav   Somewhat fav   Somewhat unfav   Very unfav   Don’t know
Donald Trump       26%            18%                    9%              40%               7%
Mike Pence          24%              17%                  12%               29%             17%
Paul Ryan             8%                22%                20%                30%             20%
Mitch McConnell    5%                17%                17%                28%              32%
Nancy Pelosi         7%               19%                 14%                 37%             23%
Chuck Schumer     6%               18%                 12%                 27%             36%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on May 03, 2017, 06:49:20 PM
Gravis Marketing poll of Ohio (http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/gravis-marketing-2018-ohio-poll-results/):

49% Favorable
43% Unfavorable


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 04, 2017, 02:22:10 AM
It's Zogby (https://zogbyanalytics.com/images/PDF/Frequencies-Zogby-Voters-Trump-Approval.pdf)! (4/28 - 4/29):

Approve: 43.3%
Disapprove: 50.1%

I found the poll through Breitbart (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/05/03/poll-finds-hispanic-support-for-president-trump-up-to-45-since-election/), which touted Trump's level of support among Hispanics (lol).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 04, 2017, 04:52:30 AM
Morning Consult, April 27-30 compared to April 20-24
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/03/people-split-states-treat-sickest-americans/
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-cb5a-dc47-a5df-fb5e48000002

RV:
48% (-3)
45% (-/-)

Strongly:
24%
31%

If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?
(D)      41%
(R)      41%
DK/NO 18%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 04, 2017, 12:08:57 PM

Colorado, Magellan Strategies (which had a very strong R bias in polling):

47-49, likely voters in the midterm (probably a 2010 or 2014 model).

Should Donald Trump be a reasonably-successful President, he then will flip Colorado in 2020. Colorado would go back to being slightly, but decisively, red (Atlas blue).  It's hard to believe now, but Colorado went only once for a Democratic nominee for President between the years 1964 (LBJ blowout) and 2008 (near-landslide for Obama), and in such a case Colorado would go back to the sort of state that it was from 1968 to 2004 -- the sort of state that teases Democrats but usually goes Republicans in a national election best described as somewhat-close .

But unless Donald Trump should be wildly successful as President, both 20`8 and 2020 are likely to be rough years for the GOP, including in Colorado. The relevant model for a midterm for 2018 is more likely 2006 than 2010 or 2014.  For a Presidential year, 2016 was an unusually poor year for a Republican in a close election in Colorado. Demographic change can change a state.

It doesn't make sense that Coloradans should see Trump more sympathetically in Texas than in Colorado.... I'm guessing at this point that President Trump could consider himself lucky to get 47% of the vote in Colorado in 2020 even if political realities do not get worse for him.  It may be hard to believe, but this is the first approval poll of Colorado. I expect more.  

Gravis, Ohio . Poll of likely primary voters for 2018:

Trump favorable-unfavorable 49-43. Remember that primary voters tend to lean Republican in statewide elections. Note that this is a poll of favorability and not a more rigorous poll of approval.

New Jersey, Quinnipiac:

President Trump's Approval Rating

With a more than 2-1 disapproval from women, President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 - 56 percent job approval rating in the Garden State, compared to a negative 34 - 59 percent score in a March 15 Quinnipiac University poll.

Today, women give Trump a negative 28 - 63 percent approval rating. The president has a negative 43 - 49 percent among men.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2454

Improvement for Trump  that forces a category change -- but the difference is still within statistical noise.

Execrable performances for Trump in New Jersey and New York suggest that the better he is known, the less he is liked.
 
Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  








Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 04, 2017, 02:29:13 PM
The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 04, 2017, 02:36:44 PM
I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 04, 2017, 02:40:12 PM
The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

He signed a controversial Executive Order that the courts might (surprise, surprise, surprise!) revoke. The House passed a bill undoing much of Obamacare, and I expect the President to endorse it.

I cannot predict the polling results of such.

President Trump's approval ratings have never gone under 35% in any national poll, although he has gone that far down in some states. The President seemed to have been recovering some.  

Under 35%? The President already has a cult of personality that assures a near minimum of 35% support.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 05, 2017, 11:32:21 AM
The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

He signed a controversial Executive Order that the courts might (surprise, surprise, surprise!) revoke. The House passed a bill undoing much of Obamacare, and I expect the President to endorse it.

I cannot predict the polling results of such.

President Trump's approval ratings have never gone under 35% in any national poll, although he has gone that far down in some states. The President seemed to have been recovering some.  

Under 35%? The President already has a cult of personality that assures a near minimum of 35% support.

#FakeNews!

https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-april-24-27-2017/


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 05, 2017, 12:04:13 PM
The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

I wonder how the Religious "Freedom" executive order and AHCA passage will affect his approval rating.

He signed a controversial Executive Order that the courts might (surprise, surprise, surprise!) revoke. The House passed a bill undoing much of Obamacare, and I expect the President to endorse it.

I cannot predict the polling results of such.

President Trump's approval ratings have never gone under 35% in any national poll, although he has gone that far down in some states. The President seemed to have been recovering some.  

Under 35%? The President already has a cult of personality that assures a near minimum of 35% support.

#FakeNews!

https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-april-24-27-2017/

So he has been below 35% and has the potential to go below that. Noted.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 05, 2017, 12:32:29 PM
Gallup (May 4th)

42% Approve (-/-)
52% Disapprove (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 06, 2017, 08:15:34 AM
Ipsos, April 30-May 4  compared to April 27-May 1

All Adults:
43 (-1)
52 (+1)

LV:
46 (+2)
51 (-1)


SurveyMonkey, April 28-May 4  compared to April 21-27
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfeGZWRklVZ3ZtLWM/view

All Adults:
45 (-1)
52 (-/-)

RV:
47 (-/-)
51 (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on May 06, 2017, 01:12:28 PM
Gallup: 40-54


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 06, 2017, 01:14:45 PM

40 (-2)
54 (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 06, 2017, 02:13:20 PM

It could cost the GOP greatly. But with Gallup we have a three-day average, so we might want to wait a while before drawing any conclusions. A 2% change? Within the usual margin of error.

This is worth remembering: the usual incumbent Governor or Senator running for re-election typically adds about 6% to his early-season approval rating to get the raw percentage of the binary vote. I applied this to Barack Obama, and it worked. I look at where Dubya stood in 2004, and it worked. Politicians with less than 50% approval ratings must campaign to win re-election, and as 'average' campaigners against an 'average' challenger they typically gain about 6%.

This does not apply to open-seat elections; appointed politicians do worse -- much worse -- than those who got elected to office because they never showed that they could campaign competently.   

Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

Of course that has its own assumptions. One is that third-party nominees will hurt the Democrats as much in 2020 as they hurt the Democrats in 2016. In a pure binary election, 46% of the popular vote is about what Dukakis got in 1988 and about what McCain got in 2008.

President Trump has done little to win over voters who did not go for him in 2016. Of course it is possible that he could exploit a traumatic situation like 9/11 should such happen...  Dubya did gain some from 2000 to 2004. To be sure, Barack Obama tried to build upon his electoral success of 2008 and failed -- but he still got re-elected. He didn't lose enough to get defeated in his re-election bid.

(Yes, I expect a Presidential failure, the difference between him getting anywhere from about 55 to about 140 electoral votes based upon the polls that I have seen so far).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 06, 2017, 02:38:36 PM
Relevant in the event of the  Trump failure that I see happening so far:

Donald Trump won with a margin of electoral votes more like that of Jimmy Carter.  But Carter would end up with problems that he could not solve, and for which Ronald Reagan offered solutions; also, the states were shifting in their partisan allegiance, but to the detriment of Jimmy Carter. Maybe not the solutions that many Americans would not have liked at the time, but the 1984 election suggested that Reagan did a lot of things right, like lowering many Americans' expectations. Oh, you have a college degree and you hate your job in retail or fast food, but your low pay even worse? There is a solution -- take another such job to supplement your meager earnings, and always remember to show that moronic "Delighted to serve you!" smile! People taking second jobs that they hated as much as their ill-paid first jobs solved lots of economic problems.  They may have hated their lives, but they either accepted things as they were or found ways out, like giving up the white-collar dream for a job that gets one's precious hands dirty.   
 


(
)

red -- Carter in 1976 and 1980
white -- Carter 1976, Reagan 1980
blue -- Ford in 1976, Reagan in 1980

(Ignore shades).

Just a reminder: it's the next election that matters. It's not that I expect President Trump to be caught with an economic meltdown as bad as that of 1929-1932 or with a diplomatic disaster as severe as the Iranian hostage crisis.  I'm not saying that the President will lose fifteen states that he won in 2016, and for obvious reasons he can't lose 33 that he won in 2016. But two will be enough if one of them is Florida and one of them is Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin and three will be enough if one of them is Pennsylvania and the other two are any pair of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on May 06, 2017, 05:59:44 PM
Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

I always thought that the +6% number had to do with the head to head numbers, not the general numbers. Trump may have only gotten 46% in the general election, but take out the third party votes and he went 49-51.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 06, 2017, 07:35:11 PM
Figuring that approvals stick at 40% until early 2020 before President Trump starts campaigning, he could end up with 46% of the total vote in November 2020. Of course that would ensure that the next president will be a Democrat, right?

WRONG! Donald Trump won a mere 45.94% of the popular vote in 2016 -- he simply won the 'right' votes. An even shift of 0.35%  would have not been enough to cause him to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and the election. If the states fall as they did in 2016, then President Trump could be re-elected with as little as 45.5% of the popular vote and barely win.

I always thought that the +6% number had to do with the head to head numbers, not the general numbers. Trump may have only gotten 46% in the general election, but take out the third party votes and he went 49-51.

Nate Silver refers to the binary vote, usually ignoring the Third Party/Independent vote.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 07, 2017, 01:49:59 PM
Gallup (May 6th)

40% Approve (-/-)
54% Disapprove (-/-)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 07, 2017, 07:35:08 PM
People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/06/trump-popular-kasich-mandel-leads-brown-senate/)

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/04/sunshine-state-battleground-poll-trumps-approval-rating-florida-remains-strong/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on May 07, 2017, 08:06:23 PM
People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/06/trump-popular-kasich-mandel-leads-brown-senate/)

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/04/sunshine-state-battleground-poll-trumps-approval-rating-florida-remains-strong/)

Even though that polling agency is obviously biased in their support for Trump (read some of their headlines), I do believe the polls thus far are underestimating his support. At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 07, 2017, 08:55:59 PM
People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/06/trump-popular-kasich-mandel-leads-brown-senate/)

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/04/sunshine-state-battleground-poll-trumps-approval-rating-florida-remains-strong/)

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 07, 2017, 09:14:54 PM
People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/06/trump-popular-kasich-mandel-leads-brown-senate/)

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/04/sunshine-state-battleground-poll-trumps-approval-rating-florida-remains-strong/)

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results.  

Actually, according to the 2016 CNN exit polls in Ohio (http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/ohio/president) and Florida (http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/president), Republicans outnumbered Democrats in both states.

I still find it suspect that so many people approve of him in those states, even if the crosstabs and per-county estimates they put out seem oddly plausible.  Still, it's probably best to just throw those polls into the average.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on May 07, 2017, 11:16:12 PM
People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/06/trump-popular-kasich-mandel-leads-brown-senate/)

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove (https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2017/05/04/sunshine-state-battleground-poll-trumps-approval-rating-florida-remains-strong/)

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results.  


Since the election, the President’s support among whites has held roughly even in the nation’s largest battleground state, while his support among non-whites, particularly Hispanics, has risen slightly on almost ever measure.


Great polls!


By the way, voter registration for Democrats plummeted from 40% to 38% in Florida over the 4 years prior to the 2016 election while Republicans held steady at 36%. Quite easy to see more Republicans in the actual voter pool.

Many of the Democrats might identify as Republicans as they cross sides to vote for Trump!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Shadows on May 08, 2017, 07:06:38 AM
The big fall in ratings of Trump will come after atleast 1-1.5 years (if people want low 30's). Most of the people who voted for him are still in his side. Atleast it battleground states where people feel the last administration didn't work want to try Trump & give him a fair chance before turning on him.

Most of these people are not high information voters & won't be swayed by the traditional media. When they will see cuts to programs that matter to them, real effects of new healthcare bill, no major change in economy or it doing worse, they will slowly re-evaluate their support.

It is possibly an over-expectation to expect these anti-establishment working class whites to turn on him within a 100 days !


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: emailking on May 08, 2017, 07:23:37 AM
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on May 08, 2017, 11:08:51 AM
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 08, 2017, 11:13:35 AM
IBD/TIPP (4/28-5/4) (http://www.investors.com/politics/trumps-tax-plan-gets-big-thumbs-up-approval-rating-rises-ibdtipp-poll/)

Approve: 39% (+5 since last poll)
Disapprove: 54% (-2 since last poll)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 08, 2017, 11:19:32 AM
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.

Uh how?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 08, 2017, 11:38:02 AM
Today's Gallup will be entirely post-House voting. Will it be a big (2-3%) drop again?



Rasmussen, May 3-7, compared to May 2-4
LV:
45% (-1)
54% (-/-)

3 of 5 days are post-voting.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 08, 2017, 12:00:58 PM
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 08, 2017, 12:05:05 PM
Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 08, 2017, 12:05:24 PM
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.

OK, in that sense you're correct; he's the individual leader because of a large field on the other side.
 Similarly, Clinton was clearly the individual leader during the early days of the Republican primary.  But the OP has Trump as a 2:1 favorite to win re-election...which seems ridiculously high.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 08, 2017, 12:07:31 PM
Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 08, 2017, 01:32:26 PM
Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

Hasn't he been stable around that level, given the economy? Remember, Trump hasn't made any major policies and nothing has been signed. This is basically Trump alienating everyone but his core people and some Republicans who haven't the full force of the Trump incompetence.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: emailking on May 08, 2017, 02:48:51 PM
At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

Yes. At this point and, barring some disaster or a major political shift, I would place Trump's odds at 2:1 that he will win in 2020.

I'm not sure that's by far. By that metric Clinton was by far the favorite to win as her lowest quantitative odds on election day were 70%.


At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.

But the point of having a primary is to minimize vote splitting. I assumed he was referring to general.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 08, 2017, 02:58:00 PM
Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

Hasn't he been stable around that level, given the economy? Remember, Trump hasn't made any major policies and nothing has been signed. This is basically Trump alienating everyone but his core people and some Republicans who haven't the full force of the Trump incompetence.

First time AHCA came out, Trump lost 2-4%.

But probably we see the power of power of the 'clickbait' media.
First time it was about Trump being a looser and awful CBO score.
Now their narrative is about 'How Donald Trump won another unlikely victory' http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/05/politics/trump-unlikely-victory-health-care/

Even so in fact the AHCA probably got worse after the amendments...

So I still expect Trump to fall a bit. Probably, after new CBO score.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 08, 2017, 04:05:42 PM
Either way, unless this bill actually gets signed into law in some form that is somewhat as horrible as the House version, whatever effects it has on his approval ratings will likely be temporary and ultimately irrelevant. So far there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the threat of passage is enough to permanently peel away core supporters, so he'll just continue to hover around 40%, give or take.

Right now the only thing I believe that will bring Trump down to a new, lower baseline is time and a sustained inability to actually fix the primary problems his voters are facing, or some new major event like a recession. Eventually all these victories he fairly or unfairly claims will mean much less when people realize things aren't actually getting better for themselves. This may be a gentle slide downwards in approvals, and maybe it even takes longer than 1 term.

Who knows.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: cvparty on May 08, 2017, 04:15:10 PM
Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)
gasp


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on May 08, 2017, 06:36:18 PM
Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 08, 2017, 07:02:19 PM
Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on May 08, 2017, 07:08:45 PM
Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 08, 2017, 07:17:16 PM
There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Pretty much that whole time frame was a big recession.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Matty on May 08, 2017, 07:18:25 PM
There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Pretty much that whole time frame was a big recession.

lol


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on May 08, 2017, 07:24:18 PM
Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.
Not true the economy got sluggish under Bush in the beginning of his term


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 08, 2017, 07:25:27 PM
Not true the economy got sluggish under Bush in the beginning of his term

It also got really bad in the mid-'90s.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on May 08, 2017, 09:17:41 PM
UNH poll of New Hampshire (4/24-5/4):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

These guys took a hit last November, but yeah.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on May 09, 2017, 11:38:25 AM
Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Those times are never coming back for a few reasons. The 90's and 2000's saw three things happen that led to a robust economic boom (two of which aren't happening 2017-2020).

1. Tech boom (although I will conceded that this is a continuing process that we're still going through).

2. Baby boomers (the largest generation in human history) entering their peak earning years from the 90's-2000's. Gen X is considerably smaller than boomers and have been the ones entering their own peak earning years starting right around the 2008 crisis. While millennials are larger than Xers, they will be too young to start entering their peak earning years from 2017-2020 since the oldest of them will barely be turning 40 in 2020.

3. The collapse of the Soviet Union and sudden opening of vast marketplaces in former soviet states for commerce and trade. This formerly untapped resource of economic growth has largely been utilized. And if anything, trade and economic openness will get worse with Trump given his actions and statements.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 09, 2017, 12:21:46 PM
Gallup

40% ( -2)
53% (-/-)



Fixed.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 09, 2017, 01:31:12 PM


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 09, 2017, 04:07:02 PM
Here's a question: what if the economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low throughout his term? Would he be one of the few presidents who lost reelection with a stable economy?

The economy is the only reason he's sitting at 42% and not 30-35%. People are happy, so they tolerate his stupidity and bovine flatulence.

Anyhow -- how, pray tell, does the economy keep going and defy the laws of a business cycle? I'm just curious, what do I know about the laws of economics.

There is no "law" that says cycles have to end after x amount of years. We really didn't have a real recession between 1993 and 2007.

Actually we did have a recession between March and November 2001. You see, before I talked, I checked my facts. Recessions do happen once or more every ten years. You might not believe it was real but there was this thing called the dotcom bubble bursting. It, among other things, affected tax receipts and economic growth in 2001. It certainly hurt a number of people who invested in the stock markets in the 1990s.

Let me explain again and this time with emphasis.

The  dotcom bubble bursting (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble) prior to the official recession might have helped Bush win in 2000. Once again you're just trying to do “Republicans always mean good times” and wave away the business cycle because you somehow believe there won't be a recession in the next four years because Trump is president.

As you were saying… ?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 10, 2017, 07:12:14 AM
Morning Consult/Politico

44% Approve (-4)
48% Disapprove (+3)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll.

Source (https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/10/trump-approval-drops-gops-health-care-vote/)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 10, 2017, 07:24:42 AM
Morning Consult/Politico

44% Approve (-4)
48% Disapprove (+3)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll.

Source (https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/10/trump-approval-drops-gops-health-care-vote/)

In two weeks, he's gone from 51/45 to 48/45 to 44/48 in this poll.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 10, 2017, 07:54:39 AM
The downward trend + the comey firing could cause Trump to achieve his lowest approval yet by the end of this week.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 10, 2017, 08:53:50 AM
Ipsos, May 4-8 compared to April 29-May 3

All Adults:
43 (-/-)
52 (-/-)

LV:
48 (+2)
48 (-3)


Rasmussen, MAY 7-9

LV:
47 (+1)
53 (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 10, 2017, 10:50:09 AM
Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 10, 2017, 10:54:26 AM
Trump tumbles in YouGov/Economist poll.

Approve: 41% (-2)
Dissaprove: 51% (+4)

Trump's worst numbers from this pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on May 10, 2017, 11:55:40 AM
Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.

:o


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 10, 2017, 11:58:11 AM
Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.

:o

tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OneJ on May 10, 2017, 12:24:25 PM
Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.

:o

tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 10, 2017, 12:39:17 PM
Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.

:o

tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.

I don't doubt he's underwater, the question is it by single digits or twenty points?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 10, 2017, 12:52:08 PM
Polls by a newbie  from Florida and Ohio have some strange editorial commentary and prove to be outliers. There will be more polls, especially of those two potentially-critical states. No obvious problem presents itself  with this one:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (4/24-5/4):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

These guys took a hit last November, but yeah.

Quote
Craig Gilbert‏ @WisVoter  4m
4 minutes ago
 
More
new WI poll by St Norbert's (small sample -- 303 adults) has Trump at 39 approve/59 disapprove and Gov Walker at 49/49.

:o

tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.

A poll by Marquette University Law School a couple months ago had Trump approval around 42% in Wisconsin. The difference could be adults versus registered voters, or something like that. The 59% disapproval should scare the Hell out of Wisconsin Republicans.

This poll suggests that President Trump would lose by double digits in 2020 if he runs for re-election. At a minimum I see him losing the three states that are the difference between Hillary Clinton and he as President (MI, PA, and WI), with further possibility of losses that give the Democratic nominee at the least not-so-bare wins.

The amazing thing is that Scott Walker is holding his own despite Donald Trump as President.   When a Republican nominee for President is down by double digits in Wisconsin he stands to lose at least as badly as McCain in 2008.

This is all before the Comey kerfluffle.


Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  






Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 10, 2017, 01:09:21 PM
Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456)

Quote
American voters' opinions of several of Trump's personal qualities are down:
61 - 33 percent that he is not honest, compared to 58 - 37 percent April 19;
56 - 41 percent that he does not have good leadership skills, little change;
59 - 38 percent that he does not care about average Americans, compared to 57 - 42 percent April 19;
66 - 29 percent that he is not level-headed, compared to 63 - 33 percent last month;
62 - 35 percent that he is a strong person, little change;
56 - 41 percent that he is intelligent, compared to 58 - 38 percent;
64 - 32 percent that he does not share their values, compared to 61 - 35 percent.

My favorite part is how every new Q poll the % that think's trump is intelligent drops.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 10, 2017, 01:14:29 PM
Quinnipiac asked people what word first came to mind when they thought about President Trump

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 10, 2017, 01:21:40 PM
Gallup 5/10

40% (-/-)
53% (-/-)



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: ajc0918 on May 10, 2017, 01:30:47 PM
Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456)

()

Oh wow

Quote
11. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 54%
Republican Party: 38%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 10, 2017, 01:32:07 PM
Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456)


Q is below Gallup... and this is before the Comey firing. If one accepts that Wisconsin is typically about D+3, the St. Norbert's poll is in line with this result.

Next week's polls should say how Americans think of the Comey firing. Note that I avoid commenting on how events will effect change in polling data. I let the polls speak for themselves.

...PPP, Marist, and Siena have been rather quiet recently.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sorenroy on May 10, 2017, 01:51:18 PM
Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456)

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 10, 2017, 01:56:49 PM
Too early to say if this is permanent or will reset to the 40s.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on May 10, 2017, 02:25:06 PM
A 2:1 ratio between strongly disapprove and strongly approve, and a D+16 in the generic congressional ballot, all before the Comey firing. Hmm.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 10, 2017, 02:25:57 PM
A 2:1 ratio between strongly disapprove and strongly approve, and a D+16 in the generic congressional ballot, all before the Comey firing. Hmm.

I'd average the polling and watch the trend before making a judgment.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 10, 2017, 02:38:28 PM
The Comey firing probably lowered both his ceiling and floor.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 10, 2017, 03:01:08 PM
Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

Unexpected. We'll need though to see more data-points before drawing any conclusions.

Hasn't he been stable around that level, given the economy? Remember, Trump hasn't made any major policies and nothing has been signed. This is basically Trump alienating everyone but his core people and some Republicans who haven't the full force of the Trump incompetence.

First time AHCA came out, Trump lost 2-4%.

But probably we see the power of power of the 'clickbait' media.
First time it was about Trump being a looser and awful CBO score.
Now their narrative is about 'How Donald Trump won another unlikely victory' http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/05/politics/trump-unlikely-victory-health-care/

Even so in fact the AHCA probably got worse after the amendments...

So I still expect Trump to fall a bit. Probably, after new CBO score.
Here we go!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 10, 2017, 03:23:13 PM
Quote
11. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 54%
Republican Party: 38%

That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 10, 2017, 03:25:42 PM
Quote
11. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 54%
Republican Party: 38%

That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race


I believe most of these polls ask which party the respondent would vote for, but the Q poll asks which party they would prefer to see in control.  This may account for some of the difference.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 10, 2017, 03:32:06 PM
Quote
11. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 54%
Republican Party: 38%

That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race


I believe most of these polls ask which party the respondent would vote for, but the Q poll asks which party they would prefer to see in control.  This may account for some of the difference.

Hm.. Is it not a little bit strange question to ask?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 10, 2017, 03:46:18 PM
Quote
11. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 54%
Republican Party: 38%

That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race


I believe most of these polls ask which party the respondent would vote for, but the Q poll asks which party they would prefer to see in control.  This may account for some of the difference.

Ah, good point.  So there are more than a few people who intend to vote Republican in their own district, but are hoping that the Dems win the majority nationwide.  Sounds like an "I like my own Representative, but the rest of his/her party stinks" type of thing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 10, 2017, 04:34:50 PM
Too early to say if this is permanent or will reset to the 40s.

It is too early. 36% is as low as I can imagine for a president who does not have an economy in free-fall, an international calamity, a sex scandal, or bungling of a national disaster -- none of which apply to the President.

This said, the firing of Director Comey does not look good.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: OkThen on May 10, 2017, 04:43:33 PM
Initially the Q poll had me thinking that the numbers keep fluctuating and he'll likely bounce back to low-forties. I think the most troubling part for Trump however is that a majority are strongly disapproving.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 10, 2017, 05:03:08 PM
he won't breach 35% consistently until the good times stop. Then crap will hit the fan.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 10, 2017, 05:13:56 PM
White people with college degrees:

approve 36% -- disapprove 59%

If you are to ask what demographic is most likely to make a difference -- then here it is. This is a sophisticated group of voters, and one unlikely to be moved quickly once it gets a negative opinion on anything. Such people hold their own in impromptu political debates against an unsophisticated argument by an ignoramus. (Ask me how I do that). It's usually someone with less than a college degree who offers a shabby defense of a politician or a political cause. Poorly-educated white people might not recognize the validity of a well-crafted counter-argument by any person of color.

In the old days, Democrats could lose Presidential elections against this demographic (it is telling that white college grads voted -- barely -- for Goldwater in 1964) because there weren't so many college graduates of any ethnicity as a share of the population.

Well-educated people usually make their minds up and keep their minds  made up on personalities and policies. That may have saved Barack Obama in 2012 -- but it can wreck Trump in 2020.

Republicans need to at least break even with this group now.  

This polling was taken before the firing of Director Comey.

The glaciers are gaining ground in this Winter of Discontent.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on May 10, 2017, 07:06:29 PM
It is too early. 36% is as low as I can imagine for a president who does not have an economy in free-fall, an international calamity, a sex scandal, or bungling of a national disaster -- none of which apply to the President.

This said, the firing of Director Comey does not look good.  

A sex scandal won't do anything to how his voters see him.

Sure, it was awful when it was Bill Clinton.  Now that it's their Führer, it's not a big deal.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 11, 2017, 08:41:11 AM
It is too early. 36% is as low as I can imagine for a president who does not have an economy in free-fall, an international calamity, a sex scandal, or bungling of a national disaster -- none of which apply to the President.

This said, the firing of Director Comey does not look good.  

A sex scandal won't do anything to how his voters see him.

Sure, it was awful when it was Bill Clinton.  Now that it's their Führer, it's not a big deal.

Two words... Piss tape.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on May 11, 2017, 08:49:45 AM
It is too early. 36% is as low as I can imagine for a president who does not have an economy in free-fall, an international calamity, a sex scandal, or bungling of a national disaster -- none of which apply to the President.

This said, the firing of Director Comey does not look good.  

A sex scandal won't do anything to how his voters see him.

Sure, it was awful when it was Bill Clinton.  Now that it's their Führer, it's not a big deal.

Two words... Piss tape.

I still don't think they'd care, honestly.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 11, 2017, 09:23:08 AM
It is too early. 36% is as low as I can imagine for a president who does not have an economy in free-fall, an international calamity, a sex scandal, or bungling of a national disaster -- none of which apply to the President.

This said, the firing of Director Comey does not look good.  

A sex scandal won't do anything to how his voters see him.

Sure, it was awful when it was Bill Clinton.  Now that it's their Führer, it's not a big deal.

Two words... Piss tape.

I still don't think they'd care, honestly.

I mean, sure, EnglishPete would be A-Ok with it, but he would at least drop to Dubya 08 levels.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 11, 2017, 09:31:13 AM
Beautiful Flawless Rasmussen, May 8-10

LV
48% (+1)
52% (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 11, 2017, 09:43:20 AM
Beautiful Flawless Rasmussen, May 8-10

LV
48% (+1)
52% (-1)

It's frustrating how out-of-sync Rasmussen is.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on May 11, 2017, 09:46:10 AM
Quinnipiac Poll:

36% Approve (-4)
58% Disapprove (+2)

Source (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456)

()

These numbers look realistic. But LOL at Drumpf for 58% disapproval after 100 days. I guess that's big league.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 11, 2017, 12:02:37 PM
Gallup, May 8-10

All Adults
38% (-2)
55% (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on May 11, 2017, 12:05:28 PM
Crashing has begun. He might need to go to war with another country to recover now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on May 11, 2017, 12:08:33 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 11, 2017, 12:11:17 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 11, 2017, 12:12:17 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.
.

It also says hes at 37% statewide.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 11, 2017, 12:14:38 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.

?

Quote
And in Allegheny County, the only Western Pennsylvania county that Hillary Clinton won in November, Trump's approval rating has climbed 6 percentage points to 31 percent over the past three months, according to the poll.
Quote
Trump's approval rating didn't break 50 percent in any other regions of the state. It totaled 46 percent in the coal-rich northeast, 39 percent in central Pennsylvania and 24 percent in the southeastern counties surrounding Philadelphia. Just one out of 10 voters surveyed in Philadelphia said they think Trump is doing a good job, the poll shows.

Statewide, Trump's approval rating amounted to 37 percent — up from 32 percent in February. By comparison, Gov. Tom Wolf's approval rating was 41 percent and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey's 38 percent, the poll shows. Both are Democrats.

Here is pdf

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf

Quote
The May 2017 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that President Trump continues to
have strong support among Republicans and Conservatives in Pennsylvania, although his overall
job performance ratings are lower than President Obama’s at this point in his presidency. President
Trump’s job performance ratings have improved since the February Poll, rising from 32% to 37%.
()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 11, 2017, 12:48:48 PM
Quote
11. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 54%
Republican Party: 38%

That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race


I believe most of these polls ask which party the respondent would vote for, but the Q poll asks which party they would prefer to see in control.  This may account for some of the difference.

Hm.. Is it not a little bit strange question to ask?

It's always been Q's preferred question away from election season. I think it makes sense; contemplated votes over a year away are super unreliable. They switch to actual voting intention closer to elections.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on May 11, 2017, 01:23:00 PM
Gallup, May 8-10

All Adults
38% (-2)
55% (+2)

()


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 11, 2017, 01:25:07 PM

Don't worry, in three days, the public will forget everything that happened, like it always does.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on May 11, 2017, 02:31:11 PM

Don't worry, in three days, the public will forget everything that happened, like it always does.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 11, 2017, 02:39:28 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.
.

It also says hes at 37% statewide.

It doesn't change a category, so I don't show a new map.

...I see a possible pattern. People who live in big cities may see President Trump as a wealth-grabber: a landlord. Add obnoxiousness to an exploiter, and one gets a villain. On the other side, in a rural area, he's an exploiter of people that one may see as city slickers, and thus fit retribution. So to Hell with Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and especially New York City, the rural folk think.  


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hydera on May 11, 2017, 04:28:48 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.
.

It also says hes at 37% statewide.

It doesn't change a category, so I don't show a new map.

...I see a possible pattern. People who live in big cities may see President Trump as a wealth-grabber: a landlord. Add obnoxiousness to an exploiter, and one gets a villain. On the other side, in a rural area, he's an exploiter of people that one may see as city slickers, and thus fit retribution. So to Hell with Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and especially New York City, the rural folk think.  


https://www.prri.org/research/white-working-class-attitudes-economy-trade-immigration-election-donald-trump/


You wouldn't be wrong.  Compare even the cultural views of the so called white working class.

Quote
Americans overall largely reject the idea that American society has become too soft and feminine. A majority (53%) of the public disagrees that society has become overly feminine, compared to about four in ten (42%) who agree. White working-class Americans overall are more divided, with nearly half (47%) in agreement that American society has become too soft. A roughly similar number (48%) disagree that contemporary society is too soft and feminine.

White working-class men stand out for the degree to which they agree that society has become too soft and feminine. More than six in ten (61%) white working-class men embrace the notion that society has become too feminine, while only about one-third (35%) of white working-class women agree. Overall, white working-class Americans are far more likely than white college-educated Americans to believe society has become too soften and feminine (47% vs. 29%, respectively). Notably, white college-educated men are also more likely than women to agree society has become too feminine (40% vs. 20%, respectively).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on May 11, 2017, 05:07:12 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.
.

It also says hes at 37% statewide.

Including Allegheny with NW/SW according to their weights/crosstabs (https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf), Trump is at 48/50 in Western PA.

In the remainder of the state, he's at 31/67 by the same measurement.

Trump is at 36/62 statewide in this poll, compared to 42/56 in 2016 exit polling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 11, 2017, 06:10:08 PM
Including Allegheny with NW/SW according to their weights/crosstabs (https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf), Trump is at 48/50 in Western PA.

In the remainder of the state, he's at 31/67 by the same measurement.

Trump is at 36/62 statewide in this poll, compared to 42/56 in 2016 exit polling.
Isn't 37?

And they probably still have a bias?

16. As of today, do you feel comfortable with your choice for President or do you wish you could
change how you voted?

Clinton (n=313) 96% Comfortable with your choice
Trump (n=247) 94% Comfortable with your choice
Other (n=49) 76% Comfortable with your choice

Or was it before weighting?

So if one pluggs in the numbers for
17 Which candidate would you vote for if you were voting today?

Trump = 2,970,733 * 94% + 268304 *0.21 *   3% = 2794179
Clinton = 2,926,441 * 96% + 268304 *0.21 * 54% = 2839809

Clinton would win by 45 630 votes if voting would be today (according to this poll) :P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on May 11, 2017, 06:43:54 PM
Including Allegheny with NW/SW according to their weights/crosstabs (https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf), Trump is at 48/50 in Western PA.

In the remainder of the state, he's at 31/67 by the same measurement.

Trump is at 36/62 statewide in this poll, compared to 42/56 in 2016 exit polling.
Isn't 37?

37 in their topline, but it came out to 36 when calculating it from each region's approval/disapproval. I actually didn't even see the topline result until after I had done it because I went straight to the crosstabs to see about Western PA.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 12, 2017, 09:37:55 AM
Trump crashes in Rasmussen.

(5/12/17)

Approve: 45% (-3)
Dissaprove: 55% (+3)

-10

Strongly Approve: 27% (-1)
Strongly Dissaprove: 46% (+3)

-19


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2017, 09:40:53 AM
Trump crashes in Rasmussen.

(5/12/17)

Approve: 45% (-3)
Dissaprove: 55% (+3)

-10

Strongly Approve: 27% (-1)
Strongly Dissaprove: 46% (+3)

-19

We shall soon be able to conclude whether the Comey firing has anything to do with this. 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on May 12, 2017, 09:50:58 AM
Trump crashes in Rasmussen.

(5/12/17)

Approve: 45% (-3)
Dissaprove: 55% (+3)

-10

Strongly Approve: 27% (-1)
Strongly Dissaprove: 46% (+3)

-19
Firing Comey backfired


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 12, 2017, 10:13:06 AM
Rassy is junk regardless what it says.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on May 12, 2017, 10:56:43 AM
Sooner poll of Oklahoma (http://soonerpoll.com/how-unpopular-is-governor-fallin-kevin-durant-is-more-popular/):

57% Favorable
36% Unfavorable

Meanwhile, Mary Fallin is deeply underwater at 31/61.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Doimper on May 12, 2017, 11:03:57 AM
Sooner poll of Oklahoma (http://soonerpoll.com/how-unpopular-is-governor-fallin-kevin-durant-is-more-popular/):

57% Favorable
36% Unfavorable

Meanwhile, Mary Fallin is deeply underwater at 31/61.

What has Fallin done? That's approaching Brownback territory, but I haven't heard of any widely publicized failures of hers.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on May 12, 2017, 11:10:48 AM
Sooner poll of Oklahoma (http://soonerpoll.com/how-unpopular-is-governor-fallin-kevin-durant-is-more-popular/):

57% Favorable
36% Unfavorable

Meanwhile, Mary Fallin is deeply underwater at 31/61.

What has Fallin done? That's approaching Brownback territory, but I haven't heard of any widely publicized failures of hers.

Conservatived the state to oblivion, just like Kansas.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 12, 2017, 12:08:27 PM
Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 12, 2017, 12:11:07 PM
Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 12, 2017, 12:12:57 PM
Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.

There are people (I know one) who still approved of Nixon and felt he was unfairly hounded from office.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 12, 2017, 12:16:53 PM
Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.

There are people (I know one) who still approved of Nixon and felt he was unfairly hounded from office.

Don't freak out about 1 day movements... Watergate occurred over 2 years, Bush's approval dip took months after Katrina... etc


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 12, 2017, 12:43:04 PM
Morning Consult, May 9-11 compared to May 4-6
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/11/partisanship-strong-factor-voters-stance-comey-firing/
RV:
45 (+1)
47 (-1)



SurveyMonkey, May 5-11 compared to April 28 - May 4
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfdF9UV2ExYWpMMkU/view
All Adults:
43 (-2)
55 (+3)

RV:
45 (-2)
55 (+4)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on May 12, 2017, 12:49:34 PM
Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.

In firing Comey like a BOSS he proved his sexual prowess to the American people. Women want him, men want to be him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: JA on May 12, 2017, 02:28:09 PM
Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.

In firing Comey like a BOSS he proved his sexual prowess to the American people. Women want him, men want to be him.

Just think, if Trump had ordered Comey to the White House wherein he had setup cameras everywhere and, sitting in his chair in the Oval Office, on live television turned to Comey and exclaimed: "You're fired!" Americans would be giving him like 60% approval ratings right now.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 12, 2017, 02:47:27 PM
Morning Consult, May 9-11 compared to May 4-6
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/11/partisanship-strong-factor-voters-stance-comey-firing/
RV:
45 (+1)
47 (-1)


Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -3
Northeast: -9
South: +6
West: -5

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -65
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -5
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +5

8% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  11% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2017, 03:34:27 PM
Just when I am ready to ditch favorability polls, one comes out about a State that rarely gets polled.

Oklahoma. This is a favorability poll, and not as approval  poll. 57.4-35.5.  Decimals -- yuck!

http://soonerpoll.com/after-first-100-days-majority-of-oklahoma-likely-voters-still-like-trump/

Oklahoma is probably the difference between 530 and 537 electoral votes for the Democrat in 2020.


Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.  


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.  


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  







Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2017, 03:54:30 PM
Wow! Oklahoma is about R+20.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Badger on May 12, 2017, 08:18:43 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.

?

Quote
And in Allegheny County, the only Western Pennsylvania county that Hillary Clinton won in November, Trump's approval rating has climbed 6 percentage points to 31 percent over the past three months, according to the poll.
Quote
Trump's approval rating didn't break 50 percent in any other regions of the state. It totaled 46 percent in the coal-rich northeast, 39 percent in central Pennsylvania and 24 percent in the southeastern counties surrounding Philadelphia. Just one out of 10 voters surveyed in Philadelphia said they think Trump is doing a good job, the poll shows.

Statewide, Trump's approval rating amounted to 37 percent — up from 32 percent in February. By comparison, Gov. Tom Wolf's approval rating was 41 percent and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey's 38 percent, the poll shows. Both are Democrats.

Here is pdf

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf

Quote
The May 2017 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that President Trump continues to
have strong support among Republicans and Conservatives in Pennsylvania, although his overall
job performance ratings are lower than President Obama’s at this point in his presidency. President
Trump’s job performance ratings have improved since the February Poll, rising from 32% to 37%.
()

The only increase in polling noted is Trump "soaring" up 6 points in Allegheny County--to a whopping 31%.

This is the trip, people. Grumps, a machine that you would let yourself get trolled that easily by the biggest rag in the Northeast East.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 13, 2017, 12:04:20 PM
Gallup


40% (-1)
55% (+1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: henster on May 13, 2017, 03:59:53 PM
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/12285424-74/trumps-approval-rating-soars-among-voters-polled-in-western-pennsylvania

This poll conveniently excludes Allegheny County.

?

Quote
And in Allegheny County, the only Western Pennsylvania county that Hillary Clinton won in November, Trump's approval rating has climbed 6 percentage points to 31 percent over the past three months, according to the poll.
Quote
Trump's approval rating didn't break 50 percent in any other regions of the state. It totaled 46 percent in the coal-rich northeast, 39 percent in central Pennsylvania and 24 percent in the southeastern counties surrounding Philadelphia. Just one out of 10 voters surveyed in Philadelphia said they think Trump is doing a good job, the poll shows.

Statewide, Trump's approval rating amounted to 37 percent — up from 32 percent in February. By comparison, Gov. Tom Wolf's approval rating was 41 percent and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey's 38 percent, the poll shows. Both are Democrats.

Here is pdf

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/469804111621898454-f-m-poll-release-may-2017.pdf

Quote
The May 2017 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that President Trump continues to
have strong support among Republicans and Conservatives in Pennsylvania, although his overall
job performance ratings are lower than President Obama’s at this point in his presidency. President
Trump’s job performance ratings have improved since the February Poll, rising from 32% to 37%.
()

The only increase in polling noted is Trump "soaring" up 6 points in Allegheny County--to a whopping 31%.

This is the trip, people. Grumps, a machine that you would let yourself get trolled that easily by the biggest rag in the Northeast East.

F&M polls are the worst because they ask Fair/Poor and Excellent/Good instead of the simple Approve/Disapprove. 'Fair' could mean that the person thinks he's doing an OK job and approves but its lumped in with 'Poor' and interpreted as disapproval. So 37% is combined Excellent/Good but what is the Fair #? His JA could be 57%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 13, 2017, 08:13:04 PM
True. "Fair" weather is good weather. "Fair" dealing is honest dealing, the only sort of dealing compatible with sustained business and prosperity. "Fair" trials are obviously preferable to unfair show trials, let alone lynchings, for determining what to do with a criminal suspect.  We have had a "fairness" doctrine and not a "righteousness" doctrine. 

In K-12 grading, "A" is extraordinary; "B" is "good", "C" is "average" or "fair", "D" is poor", and "E" or "F" indicates failure.  In college, the sorts of people who would get "D's" or lower in K-12 education generally are nowhere to be found. By graduate school a "C" is inadequate for progress.

A seven-year-old child who does a 'fair' performance on a violin is already above average. By adulthood that standard is inadequate. If one never got beyond that level of play one probably has some other pastime, let alone a career,  than playing a violin.

The word "fair" is thus ambiguous with respect to political performance.  If people gave school-like grades, then "A" would suggest strong approval, "B" mild approval, "C" basically undecided, "D" general disapproval, and "E" or "F" strong disapproval.   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ronnie on May 14, 2017, 11:47:35 AM
NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th) (https://www.scribd.com/document/348302118/NBC-WSJ-May-2017-poll)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 54%

Favorable: 38%
Unfavorable: 52%

Also, 41% of people say they have "quite a bit of" or a "great deal of" confidence in President Trump, while 57% say they don't have much confidence or have no real confidence at all in the president.

Not approval-related, but another relevant thing in this poll is that 78% of people want an independent special investigation into Russia.  Wow!


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 14, 2017, 12:20:23 PM
NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th) (https://www.scribd.com/document/348302118/NBC-WSJ-May-2017-poll)

All Adults

Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (-/-)

Compared to APRIL 17-20


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Crumpets on May 14, 2017, 12:40:40 PM
Trump is now at his highest disapproval yet on the RCP average (53.6%), but is still a point or so above his lowest approval - more people are making up their minds about him.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 15, 2017, 09:28:43 AM
Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Just 2% over his all time low (42%, April 3).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2017, 10:40:13 AM
Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.


NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th) (https://www.scribd.com/document/348302118/NBC-WSJ-May-2017-poll)

All Adults

Approve: 39% (-1)
Disapprove: 54% (-/-)

Compared to APRIL 17-20

The President has a huge credibility gap.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on May 15, 2017, 12:06:50 PM

Not totally related, but today's update also included the first negative "Economic Confidence" metric since Trump won the election. Despite the jobs numbers and all the positive economic indicators, it looks like people are souring on more than just Trump.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 15, 2017, 02:39:23 PM

Not totally related, but today's update also included the first negative "Economic Confidence" metric since Trump won the election. Despite the jobs numbers and all the positive economic indicators, it looks like people are souring on more than just Trump.

I'd be curious to see what's causing this. There was surge after Trump's election as Republicans suddenly became much more optimistic. Democrats became somewhat more pessimistic at the same time but to a lesser degree. Is the bottom falling out of Democrats' economic optimism (taking us back to pre-election levels with the parties reversed), or are Republicans less enthusiastic than they were, or something in between?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Ariosto on May 15, 2017, 02:57:37 PM
Pbrower, do you still use your original format when it comes to predicting what the next President Election might be like? I pulled the one you had back for the 2012 election, and combined it with a method that AH.COM poster Reagant had developed where he took the crosstabs from polls and input them into the FiveThirtyEight Swingometer which, after the model is corrected for errors it would have had compared to OTL, gives a rough estimate of where the States may lie on the field of battle. This is what I ended up getting when I used your method with the crosstab results of a Quinnipiac Poll, though it didn't provide a breakdown for minorities.

Quote
(
)

Which seems sensible, with the outlier being Utah given the massive mallus that you've given to Trump based on his OTL performance. Georgia and North Carolina naturally are the closest Trump losses here at (0.42%) and (2.94%) respectively. Other close States were Alaska (2.86%), Indiana (4.34%), Kansas (4.62%), Missouri (4.68%), Montana (3.60%), Texas (4.96%), and the 1st District of Nebraska (4.60%).

Rasmussen and Gallup are probably better in terms of crosstabs, especially the latter, but I'm not a paid subscriber and so am not able to access them.

These were was the adjustment that was recommended as well in terms of how far the model was off when it was set to the actual demographics of the Presidential Election, in case your interested.


Quote
Alabama ; 4.28%
Alaska ; -2.32%
Arizona ; -3.52%
Arkansas ; 1.37%
California ; -5.91%
Colorado ; -2.45%
Connecticut ; -0.17%
Delaware ; 0.21%
District of Columbia ; -3.91%
Florida ; -0.11%
Georgia ; 0.24%
Hawaii ; -0.96%
Idaho ; -3.65%
Illinois ; -2.64%
Indiana ; 2.17%
Iowa ; 1.85%
Kansas ; -1.34%
Kentucky ; 2.22%
Louisiana ; 3.39%
Maine ; -0.13%
Maryland ; -1.69%
Massachusetts ; -6.09%
Michigan ; 0.25%
Minnesota ; -1.77%
Mississippi ; 5.26%
Missouri ; 2.69%
Montana ; 0.25%
Nebraska ; 0.55%
Nevada ; -0.80%
New Hampshire ; -2.04%
New Jersey ; 0.90%
New Mexico ; -2.06%
New York ; 1.02%
North Carolina ; 0.83%
North Dakota ; 4.86%
Ohio ; 2.11%
Oklahoma ; 1.62%
Oregon ; -5.41%
Pennsylvannia ; 0.37%
Rhode Island ; -0.30%
South Carolina ; 2.34%
South Dakota ; 4.33%
Tennessee ; 3.22%
Texas ; -0.67%
Utah ; -22.35%
Vermont ; -6.13%
Virginia ; -1.37%
Washington ; -6.47%
West Virginia ; 5.45%
Wisconsin ; -1.08%
Wyoming ; 3.37%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 15, 2017, 03:06:01 PM
Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf

()

It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 15, 2017, 06:49:45 PM
Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf

()

It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.

Note that I am talking about 2020 and not 2016.

Obama apparently never got close to the 50% level of 'strong disapproval' that I associate with Donald Trump. I am tempted to believe that 'strong approval' and 'strong disapproval' are set as if in concrete. With 'strong approval' one has some room for an occasional disappointment, perhaps with the rationale 'nobody gets everything he wants'. With 'strong disapproval' one has room for an occasional instance of something going right with such a rationale as 'a stopped clock is right twice a day'.  Less-marked approval or disapproval is shakier. Yes, it is possible that  a politician can make a complete turnaround -- or more likely that a potential voter makes a dramatic change in his core values. The latter has great significance should that here be some cultural change that changes the  core values of masses of potential voters (as with the rise of the Religious Right during the Carter Presidency).

People can occasionally harbor 'slight disapproval' for an incumbent President and still vote for him -- because the challenger is a weak campaigner, offers practically the same, or stands for things that one dislikes. Strong disapproval? You might vote for the challenger and you might not vote altogether.     


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Person Man on May 15, 2017, 07:09:24 PM
Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf

()

It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.

Note that I am talking about 2020 and not 2016.

Obama apparently never got close to the 50% level of 'strong disapproval' that I associate with Donald Trump. I am tempted to believe that 'strong approval' and 'strong disapproval' are set as if in concrete. With 'strong approval' one has some room for an occasional disappointment, perhaps with the rationale 'nobody gets everything he wants'. With 'strong disapproval' one has room for an occasional instance of something going right with such a rationale as 'a stopped clock is right twice a day'.  Less-marked approval or disapproval is shakier. Yes, it is possible that  a politician can make a complete turnaround -- or more likely that a potential voter makes a dramatic change in his core values. The latter has great significance should that here be some cultural change that changes the  core values of masses of potential voters (as with the rise of the Religious Right during the Carter Presidency).

People can occasionally harbor 'slight disapproval' for an incumbent President and still vote for him -- because the challenger is a weak campaigner, offers practically the same, or stands for things that one dislikes. Strong disapproval? You might vote for the challenger and you might not vote altogether.     

46% will never vote for Trump and 40% will always? ok.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GlobeSoc on May 15, 2017, 08:27:01 PM
Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on May 15, 2017, 10:46:20 PM
Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers

35% A 57% DA


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2017, 04:19:00 AM
A more interesting bet will be on who becomes the next Vice-President of the United States.

This gigantic breach of national security is an impeachable offense. Are we more patriots or partisans?   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Inmate Trump on May 16, 2017, 09:16:09 AM
A more interesting bet will be on who becomes the next Vice-President of the United States.

This gigantic breach of national security is an impeachable offense. Are we more patriots or partisans?   

Unfortunately, partisans.

The Republican Congress will never impeach Trump.  They all talked so tough during the primary, but now they're all cowering to him.

Another reason I refuse to support another Republican for any office ever again.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2017, 09:20:13 AM
Place your bets on how Trump's recent stupidity will affect his numbers

33-64.

President Trump is going to start getting hit from the Right on this.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 16, 2017, 09:36:20 AM
Rasmussen (5/16/17) Trump keeps plummeting

Approve: 43% (-1)
Dissaprove: 57% (+1)

-14

Strongly approve: 26% (-1)
Strongly dissaprove: 47% (+1)

-21

Trump could hit the 30s with Rass by the end of the week due to the latest bombshell.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 16, 2017, 09:48:37 AM
PPP:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_51617.pdf)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 16, 2017, 09:51:39 AM
PPP:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_51617.pdf)

Also, 48-41 in favor of impeachment.  Brutal.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2017, 11:33:29 AM
Devastating.

People are now less willing to admit that the voted for President Trump, a sign that people tend to forget their poor decisions on political issues.  Biden, Sanders, and Warren all crush the President in voting preferences in 2020; Franken and Booker do well. Trump loses to a movie star of action pictures... a black man with no political experience. (Of course, someone has already shown that being black is not an absolute bar to being President).

By 8%, people now would rather that Hillary Clinton were President. Obama 'edges' him out 55-37, with only 6% unsure.

People want the President to resign  if it can be shown that he or his staff got political aid in the 2016 election. A majority of Americans do not think the Russian connection is fake news. A near-majority of Americans consider the firing of James Comey inapt even if they didn't like him. 

Damage goes beyond the Presidency.  Congress as a whole has a 15% approval rating, Senator Mitch McConnell has a 21% approval rating, and Paul Ryan has a 25% approval rating.  Some things that should trouble Republicans; 55% of voters are very excited about voting in 2018  and 18% are 'somewhat excited. Democrats have an 11%  edge in the general ballot for Congress, which would translate into a Democratic majority in the House, at the least.

A plurality wants the President impeached.



Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on May 16, 2017, 12:56:29 PM
Gallup

Approve 38% (+-0)
Disapprove 57% (+-0)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 16, 2017, 12:57:08 PM

You posted this literally as I was hitting enter on mine :P


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: The_Doctor on May 16, 2017, 01:10:10 PM
PPP:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_51617.pdf)

Also, 48-41 in favor of impeachment.  Brutal.

The 48-41 is especially rough as is the Congressional ballot. It isn't sustainable on either front.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: heatcharger on May 16, 2017, 02:29:49 PM
WaPo-GMU poll of registered voters in Virginia: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.77e62fe4c85a)

36% Approve
60% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on May 16, 2017, 03:48:11 PM
Some other numbers from that PPP poll:

Do you think that the Russia story is ‘fake news,’ or not?
Yes 33%
No 51%

Do you think James Comey was fired because of concerns about the investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, or not?
Yes 54%
No 34%

Do you think that members of Donald Trump’s campaign team worked in association with
Russia to help Trump win the election for President, or not?
Yes 43%
No 38%

Would you support or oppose an independent investigation into Russia’s involvement in the
2016 Presidential election and ties to key Presidential aides?
Support 62%
Oppose 28%

Would you support or oppose the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate Russia’s
involvement in the 2016 Presidential election and ties to key Presidential aides?
Support 62%
Oppose 28%

If evidence comes out that proves conclusively that members of Donald Trump’s campaign
team worked in association with Russia to help Trump win the election for President, do you
think Trump should continue to serve as President, or do you think he should resign?
Continue 34%
Resign 54%

Do you think Donald Trump will end up serving his full term as President, or not?
Yes 43%
No 45%

Who would you rather was President: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
Hillary Clinton 49%
Donald Trump 41%

Generally speaking if there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?
Democrat 49%
Republican 38%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on May 16, 2017, 05:13:02 PM
WaPo-GMU poll of registered voters in Virginia: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.77e62fe4c85a)

36% Approve
60% Disapprove

Ouch.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Unapologetic Chinaperson on May 16, 2017, 05:46:53 PM
FiveThirtyEight's aggregate polling numbers: (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/)

40% Approve
54% Disapprove


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 17, 2017, 06:51:45 AM
Politico/Morning Consult

42% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/17/trump-approval-rating-238457)

These are the worst numbers Trump has had in what has typically been his best poll. Also this poll is only post Comey firing, as it was taken before the events of Monday and Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on May 17, 2017, 07:05:22 AM
FiveThirtyEight's aggregate polling numbers: (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/)

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Highest disapprove number by their measurement ever; approval is only 0.1 points above its record low (April 3).


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BlueSwan on May 17, 2017, 08:16:13 AM
Still shockingly high approval numbers. There really are no excuses for still "approving" of this president.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 17, 2017, 08:58:08 AM
Support for any politician generally has some floor of partisan loyalty and ideological blindness. Accepting that approval and disapproval are mirror images around 50% (maybe just the high 40s except at election time), I;m guessing that one can more easily go from 49% approval to 44% approval than from 39% approval to 34% approval. Politicians who got wiped out in re-election bids  often have solid support at the mid-thirties, as with Blanche Lincoln and Tom Corbett.  That's obviously not enough.

 


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on May 17, 2017, 09:27:08 AM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.

So, I'd be very surprised if Trump falls below that line. We have to assume that a quarter of the electorate will always stick with him, no matter what happens. I'd say when he hits 30% he'll be in real trouble.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BlueSwan on May 17, 2017, 09:39:52 AM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.
But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BlueSwan on May 17, 2017, 09:41:58 AM
Fivethirtyeight has Trump at 39,7% right now. His lowest yet. Still about 39,7 percentage points too high.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 17, 2017, 09:54:56 AM
Trump crashes in the Economist.

Approve: 39%
Dissaprove: 54%

-15

Trump's approval rating is officially back in the 30s in the RCP average.
Also his highest dissaproval rating yet.

Approve: 39.9%
Dissaprove: 55.0%

-15.1


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 17, 2017, 10:35:56 AM
Still shockingly high approval numbers. There really are no excuses for still "approving" of this president.

Morning Consult has apways had Trump's best numbers

It's shocking that his approval rate is above 0%.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Confused Democrat on May 17, 2017, 10:51:12 AM
Still shockingly high approval numbers. There really are no excuses for still "approving" of this president.

Morning Consult has apways had Trump's best numbers

It's shocking that his approval rate is above 0%.

It's shocking that there are a lot of dumb people in this country?

They're a product of our current media culture.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 17, 2017, 10:52:27 AM
Still shockingly high approval numbers. There really are no excuses for still "approving" of this president.

Morning Consult has apways had Trump's best numbers

It's shocking that his approval rate is above 0%.

It's shocking that there are a lot of dumb people in this country?

It's not surprising, just appalling.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on May 17, 2017, 10:53:19 AM
Still shockingly high approval numbers. There really are no excuses for still "approving" of this president.

Morning Consult has apways had Trump's best numbers

It's shocking that his approval rate is above 0%.

It's shocking that there are a lot of dumb people in this country?
It's been like this for a while.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on May 17, 2017, 11:53:04 AM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.
But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.

Why?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Unapologetic Chinaperson on May 17, 2017, 01:12:06 PM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.
But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.

Why?

Because that statement is wrong. Trump is actually the worst leader of a Western democratic country since the start of Reconstruction.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 17, 2017, 01:20:51 PM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.
But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.

Why?

To be worse one would have to be one of the Commies who transformed incipient democracies into tyrannies, like Bierut, Gottwald, or Rakosi.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: BlueSwan on May 17, 2017, 02:12:52 PM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.
But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.

Why?

Because that statement is wrong. Trump is actually the worst leader of a Western democratic country since the start of Reconstruction.
I intentially chose post WWII because some people would argue that Adolf Hitler was initially the leader of a western democratic country. Donald Trump may be a lot of things, but he's no Adolf Hitler.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 17, 2017, 04:24:29 PM
Richard Nixon's lowest all-time Gallup approval rating was 24% in the summer of 1974, shortly before his resignation. George W. Bush had a similar all-time low in 2008.
But Nixon and Bush were amazing presidents compared to Trump. Different leagues really. Trump is by far the most deplorable leader of a western democratic country post WWII. It's not close.

Why?

Because that statement is wrong. Trump is actually the worst leader of a Western democratic country since the start of Reconstruction.
I intentially chose post WWII because some people would argue that Adolf Hitler was initially the leader of a western democratic country. Donald Trump may be a lot of things, but he's no Adolf Hitler.

Maybe Silvio Berlusconi? Less incompetent (and around for longer) and therefore more damaging?


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 17, 2017, 05:39:52 PM
Gallup (May 16th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

-

Surprised this wasn't posted yet here. Anyway, no change for 3 days in a row so far.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: I Won - Get Over It on May 17, 2017, 06:31:24 PM
Ipsos, May 11-15 compared to May 6-10

All Adults:
40 (-1)
55 (+2)

LV:
43 (-2)
53 (+2)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 18, 2017, 07:54:49 AM
Economist/Yougov national poll, conducted May 13-16:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fnsar5oaj4/econToplines.pdf

Trump job approval:
approve 39%
disapprove 51%

generic congressional ballot:
Dems 40%
GOP 33%


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 18, 2017, 08:01:51 AM
Politico/Morning Consult

42% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/17/trump-approval-rating-238457)

These are the worst numbers Trump has had in what has typically been his best poll. Also this poll is only post Comey firing, as it was taken before the events of Monday and Tuesday.


crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -14
South: +/-0
West: -20

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +2
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -16

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -8
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: -15

11% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 18, 2017, 08:22:15 AM
I might have misread it, but I think Quinnipiac is coming out with another national poll today.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2017, 08:25:42 AM
Politico/Morning Consult

42% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/17/trump-approval-rating-238457)

These are the worst numbers Trump has had in what has typically been his best poll. Also this poll is only post Comey firing, as it was taken before the events of Monday and Tuesday.


crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -14
South: +/-0
West: -20

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +2
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -16

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -8
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: -15

11% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.


Anything that was within 10% from Hillary Clinton would go for her at this level of non-support for Donald Trump... even

TEXAS


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 18, 2017, 08:45:30 AM
Brutal numbers for Trump in Utah:

17% Strongly Approve
28% Somewhat Approve
13% Somewhat Disapprove
41% Strongly Disapprove

45% Total Approve
55% Total Disapprove

Dan Jones & Associates (http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/13251-poll-most-utahns-disapprove-of-trump-s-job-performance?utm_content=bufferd7f90&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Sir Mohamed on May 18, 2017, 08:45:43 AM
LOL at Politico. Their numbers are a total scam – aren’t they? The Gallup poll looks more real, though Trump’s support is still shockingly high. ~ 40%? Come on. We have a dude in the Oval, who is living in his own world, with no competence and an inferiority complex. But no doubt, the current numbers are an indicator how polarized and partisan we have become. There are tons of voters who support their president no matter what. Obviously there is almost no reason to approve Trump’s job performance, even if you’re a staunch conservative. He’s unprepared, has virtually no clue about political issues – foreign and domestic, incapable to run an administration, has no tact and literally hates the media for being critical on his serious shortcomings. Not to mention the whole Russiagate issue and Flynn.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on May 18, 2017, 08:46:56 AM
More on that Utah poll:

Quote
Not surprisingly, Republicans mostly approve of Trump's job performance while Democrats and independent voters are not impressed at all.
78% of Republicans say Trump is doing a good job, while 22% say he is not.

A whopping 97% of Democrats disapprove of Trump's job performance.

68% of independent voters disapprove of Trump's job performance, while just 29% approve.
58% of those who told us they were "very active" members of the LDS Church approve of Trump's job performance, while 41% of that group disapprove.
Add Protestants to that group, who approve of Trump's job performance 55-45%.
Those are the only religious subsets that approve of Trump's performance during the first five months of his presidency.
"Somewhat active" Mormons disapprove 57-40%.

"Not active" members of the LDS Church disapprove 61-37%.

Catholics really disapprove of Trump's job performance 72-28%.
The only age group that approves of Trump's job performance is those between 35 and 44 years old. All others disapprove of the way he's performing his job.
Utahns 18-24 years old disapprove of Trump's job performance 61-29%

Those 25-34 years old say they disapprove of Trump's job performance 62-37%

35-44-year-olds barely approve of Trump's performance 51-48%.

Those between 45 and 54 years old are divided on Trump's job performance with 48% approving and 47% disapproving.

Voters 55 to 64 years old disapprove 51-47%.

Utahns over 65 years old disapprove 51-48%.

But I thought 18-24's were much more conservative???


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Holmes on May 18, 2017, 09:38:02 AM
That's a big discrepancy between 18-34 years old and 35-44 year olds.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 18, 2017, 09:50:22 AM
That's a big discrepancy between 18-34 years old and 35-44 year olds.

I think it's not that shocking; there's a huge gap between middle-age Mormons, who are pretty uniformly conservative, and young Mormons, many of whom are liberal and will ultimately leave the church and Utah. By 35, basically everyone who is still Mormon is going to stay Mormon for the rest of their lives.


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2017, 11:03:29 AM
Two states, near neighbors in the alphabet, that is:

Brutal numbers for Trump in Utah:

17% Strongly Approve
28% Somewhat Approve
13% Somewhat Disapprove
41% Strongly Disapprove

45% Total Approve
55% Total Disapprove

Dan Jones & Associates (http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/13251-poll-most-utahns-disapprove-of-trump-s-job-performance?utm_content=bufferd7f90&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)


WaPo-GMU poll of registered voters in Virginia: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.77e62fe4c85a)

36% Approve
60% Disapprove

Donald Trump has been an incredibly-poor match for Virginia... mid-30s? He's going to make Goldwater's results in Virginia in 1964 look good by contrast.

Can you imagine an incumbent Republican President being vulnerable in Utah? Well, Trump is hardly an example of Mormon values. Mormons take family values and, clean government seriously. 

Virginia may be going strong D fast even without Trump, but not that fast.
 
Favorability:

(
)

*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.   


Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures. 


Approval:

(
)


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40% 
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation   


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Virginiá on May 18, 2017, 12:05:54 PM
Gallup (May 17th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)


Title: Re: The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 18, 2017, 12:17:26 PM
Locking thread.  Here's a link to the new thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264554.0