Talk Elections

General Politics => International General Discussion => Topic started by: Sorenroy on November 30, 2016, 09:02:49 AM



Title: If Austria's annexation by Germany (WW2) was voted on, what would be the result?
Post by: Sorenroy on November 30, 2016, 09:02:49 AM
Apparently the chancellor of Austria wanted to put Austria's annexation to a vote before Germany announced the forcable union. What would have been the wording, turnout, and result of such a vote? Note that I am not necessarily saying it would have been a fair vote. It could have turned out much like Germany's 1933 election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_election,_November_1933), where it was just staged so that Germany could win by a vast majority out of fear.

I think that Wikipedia has a fairly good summation on their Anschluss page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss#Austrian_Civil_War_to_Anschluss

Quote
The Austrian Nazi Party failed to win any seats in the November 1930 general election [link (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_legislative_election,_1930)], but its popularity grew in Austria as Austrian-born Hitler came to power in Germany. The idea of the country joining Germany also grew in popularity, and Anschluss might have occurred by democratic process had Austrian Nazis not begun a terrorism campaign. John Gunther wrote in 1936, "In 1932 Austria was probably eighty percent pro-Anschluss."

When Germany permitted residents of Austria to vote[clarification needed] on March 5, 1933, three special trains, boats and trucks brought such masses to Passau that the SS staged a ceremonial welcome.[21] By the end of 1933, Austrian public opinion about German annexation was at least 60% against.


Title: Re: If Austria's annexation by Germany (WW2) was voted on, what would be the result?
Post by: Sorenroy on November 30, 2016, 09:04:04 AM
Followup question: If it was put to a vote in Germany, how many would have been for annexation?


Title: Re: If Austria's annexation by Germany (WW2) was voted on, what would be the result?
Post by: Beezer on December 04, 2016, 06:59:47 AM
Hmm, depends on what kind of envelopes they might have used. Who knows, the vote might have been delayed indefinitely.


Title: Re: If Austria's annexation by Germany (WW2) was voted on, what would be the result?
Post by: Tender Branson on December 10, 2016, 02:39:41 PM
If the Anschluss-referendum happened under [hypothetically] very fair circumstances (instead of the secret - and open - snitch and terror campaign against opponents), I guess about 50-70% would have voted to join Germany. Instead of the 99.7% in the actual referendum.

The exact support for joining Germany is hard to estimate, because there were certainly many opponents to such an annexation move and many opponents to Hitler and the Nazis at the time. A lot of people were simply pressured heavily into voting to join or to support the Nazis and Hitler, or face punishment (incl. their families).

Some factors which are indicating higher than 50% support:

* Austrians struggling heavily after the global economic meltdown in the late 1920s and early 1930s, with massive poverty and unemployment. People thought merging with Germany would improve their economic status.

* Hitler himself as an Austrian, creating a huge "home state effect". (look how the "Red" Burgenland, dominated by the Social Democrats, voted for Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) this year with around 60% twice, despite the FPÖ only getting 10-15% in state elections there).

* Uncertainty and disillusionment during the Austrian Civil War, with many people favouring Law and Order as a result, which would have increased support for joining Germany and the Nazis.

My estimate:

60% in favour of joining Germany (of which around 30-40% strong supporters of annexation, Great-Germans and Nazis, and another 20-30% "soft" supporters out of economic anxiety & expecting personal financial gain due to "Greater Germany" and native-son Hitler's policies)

40% opposed


Title: Re: If Austria's annexation by Germany (WW2) was voted on, what would be the result?
Post by: DavidB. on December 11, 2016, 11:43:22 AM
It would obviously have to be redone and then to be redone again because of disintegrating ballots.


Title: Re: If Austria's annexation by Germany (WW2) was voted on, what would be the result?
Post by: Mike67 on December 13, 2016, 09:59:06 AM
I think Austria would have voted 60% or 70% in favor of Anschluss with Germany.