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Title: OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 07, 2016, 10:39:36 AM Josh Mandel running again. (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/12/ohio_treasurer_josh_mandel_ann.html)
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Mr. Reactionary on December 07, 2016, 10:58:38 AM I member little josh.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: The Other Castro on December 07, 2016, 10:58:55 AM Looks like Jeff Roe from the Cruz campaign may be involved. Also, I just watched the video and it looks and sounds like Mandel is 20 at most.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: The Other Castro on December 07, 2016, 11:05:17 AM Aaaaaaaaand Rubio has endorsed:
() That was quick. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: RogueBeaver on December 07, 2016, 11:07:24 AM SCF has also endorsed Mandel.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 07, 2016, 11:08:04 AM Aaaaaaaaand Rubio has endorsed: () That was quick. Little Marco for Little Josh. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 07, 2016, 11:21:17 AM Wow, not good. Brown is in trouble here.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on December 07, 2016, 11:53:22 AM Out of all the possible R candidates, Mandel scares me the least.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: GlobeSoc on December 07, 2016, 01:04:53 PM In general I am very optimistic about a rematch. A Trump midterm with the senator who can get ohio wwc votes is not the time for Brown to be taken down, except if Kaisch runs.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: SATW on December 07, 2016, 01:20:23 PM Awesome! Has my support.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: windjammer on December 07, 2016, 01:23:27 PM Well,
If OH republicans, despite their big bench, nominate him, they would definitely screw the race. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Suburbia on December 07, 2016, 01:37:22 PM Tossup. Sherrod Brown has to win reelection in 2018 before thinking about being president or vice president in 2020 or 2024.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Young Conservative on December 07, 2016, 01:38:00 PM Wow, not good. Brown is in trouble here. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Gass3268 on December 07, 2016, 02:53:50 PM Mandel would be the best option for Brown.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Maxwell on December 07, 2016, 02:58:20 PM Aaaaaaaaand Rubio has endorsed: () That was quick. friends paying back friends. I don't think Mandel will get the nomination - he'll probably get usurped by Stivers or Tiberi. I doubt Kasich runs, as some are speculating. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Figueira on December 07, 2016, 03:00:48 PM Tilt D.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Vosem on December 07, 2016, 03:00:54 PM YESSS! Let's go!
Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this! Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: PAK Man on December 07, 2016, 03:42:32 PM Aaaaaaaaand Rubio has endorsed: () That was quick. friends paying back friends. I don't think Mandel will get the nomination - he'll probably get usurped by Stivers or Tiberi. I doubt Kasich runs, as some are speculating. Won't be Stivers - he's heading the NRCC next cycle. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/stivers-elected-to-chair-nrcc-231431 Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on December 07, 2016, 03:52:28 PM I don't think Kasich or Stivers runs. So they only competition for Mandel would probably be Pat Tiberi.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 07, 2016, 03:56:06 PM Mandel is the 12 year old right?
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Pericles on December 07, 2016, 04:04:02 PM I watched the ad. Look like he took trump's win to heart. Seems like he's trying to copy Trump and win with the majority of Ohioans who voted for Donald Trump.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: The Other Castro on December 07, 2016, 04:21:51 PM Ted Cruz's Jeff Roe will be Mandel's chief strategist.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 07, 2016, 04:37:28 PM YESSS! Let's go! Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this! Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: krazen1211 on December 07, 2016, 09:19:09 PM Link (https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/806623233915179012)
New poll from WPA shows Sherrod Brown down to Josh Mandel in OH-SEN 40%-39%, including losing Indys 38%-37% with 24% undecided Dominating! Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Kingpoleon on December 07, 2016, 09:40:12 PM Hopefully Tiberi or Kasich runs for this.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Panda Express on December 07, 2016, 09:46:41 PM Sherrod Brown will break him like a boy (again)
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 07, 2016, 09:51:18 PM Hopefully Tiberi or Kasich runs for this. Kasich won't, Tiberi likely will. Small chance Renanci does. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on December 07, 2016, 09:58:50 PM Hopefully Tiberi or Kasich runs for this. Kasich won't, Tiberi likely will. Small chance Renanci does. Renacci, from what I can tell, doesn't seem like the ambitious type. Could be wrong though. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Vosem on December 07, 2016, 10:05:17 PM YESSS! Let's go! Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this! I mean, it's exaggerated a little, but Mandel is honestly among my favorite Ohio Republicans; I'll definitely be supporting him in a primary against Tiberi or whoever Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Figueira on December 07, 2016, 10:07:26 PM I'm sure running as Trump 2.0 will go over great in an anti-Trump midterm!
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: MT Treasurer on December 07, 2016, 10:08:47 PM After McCaskill and Donnelly, Brown is the most likely D to lose IMO.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Young Conservative on December 07, 2016, 10:12:49 PM I'm sure running as Trump 2.0 will go over great in an anti-Trump midterm! >Assuming a national level dissatisfaction with trump will have a major effect on a state trump won by 9 points. >calling Josh Mandel Trump 2.0 I take so many qualms with your 'analysis' Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 08, 2016, 09:34:26 AM YESSS! Let's go! Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this! I mean, it's exaggerated a little, but Mandel is honestly among my favorite Ohio Republicans; I'll definitely be supporting him in a primary against Tiberi or whoever Why? I think you are the only Republican I know who likes Mandel. Most conservatives I know recognize him as the careerist that he is. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: LabourJersey on December 08, 2016, 08:40:19 PM I'm sure running as Trump 2.0 will go over great in an anti-Trump midterm! >Assuming a national level dissatisfaction with trump will have a major effect on a state trump won by 9 points. >calling Josh Mandel Trump 2.0 I take so many qualms with your 'analysis' I don't understand why you (and quite a few other people on the forum) think the prospect of the midterms going against Trump to be just a coin flip. Short of a massive terrorist attack or very poor leadership, a President's party is bound to lose seats in Congress in a midterm year. This is even more likely for Trump, since he's starting out his term with barely favorable numbers. Clinton also would have probably faced a poor midterm (another "wipeout" in the senate was my worst fear as a Democrat before Nov. 8) If there is a solid foreign policy win or economic gains around Oct. 2018 then of course the midterm could be a wash. But everyone Trump has done so far/everyone he is surrounding himself with suggest that probably won't be the case. So I think it is best to assume Trump will have a mildly bad midterm for now, based on previous precedent and the state of Trump's approval. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Blackacre on February 14, 2017, 08:18:25 AM Ah, Josh Mandel... the guy who literally sounds like Prince Zuko from Avatar the Last Airbender. In the debate in 2012 I half expected him to talk about capturing the Avatar to please the Fire Lord and regain his honour.
My boy Sherrod will break him again. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: peterthlee on February 14, 2017, 08:21:29 AM Oh, Russ Feingold replica is coming. Kiss of death is posed on him from the very beginning.
(Despite this, the race will be a bit closer than 2012, at around a weak Dem hold of 4 points) Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Xing on February 14, 2017, 12:55:36 PM Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?
Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Del Tachi on February 14, 2017, 01:05:14 PM Bleh, Mandel.
Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Heisenberg on February 14, 2017, 01:11:17 PM Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!? Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D. Not all rematches are doomed for failure. Also, Hagedorn would havve won his rematch against Walz if the National Republican Party actually helped him. Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!? So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 14, 2017, 04:42:12 PM Bleh, Mandel. Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Skye on February 14, 2017, 04:50:51 PM Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!? Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D. It's probably because the environment was so surprisingly favorable for the GOP last year. I mean, who would have thought Trump would win the state by 8 points? Maybe some would have answered Kasich. I would definitely keep an eye on this race, but I wouldn't say Brown is doomed. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 14, 2017, 05:29:32 PM Bleh, Mandel. Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Kasich couldn't beat Mandel in a primary right now. Husted's running for governor, he's probably the best republican on the bench in the state though Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on February 14, 2017, 06:42:20 PM Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!? So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either? No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on February 14, 2017, 06:57:43 PM No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat. Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year. I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. No offense but sometimes I think you let your individual feelings towards a candidate cloud your judgement of how strong/weak they are. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 14, 2017, 09:47:44 PM No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat. Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year. I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Pericles on February 14, 2017, 10:16:27 PM Mandel will lose by double digits.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: wjx987 on February 14, 2017, 10:18:38 PM Link (https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/806623233915179012) New poll from WPA shows Sherrod Brown down to Josh Mandel in OH-SEN 40%-39%, including losing Indys 38%-37% with 24% undecided Dominating! Don't be too quick to judge. The election is two years off still, and one point is not that big of a difference. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: SATW on February 15, 2017, 04:20:34 AM Keeping hating, haters. Josh Mandel will surprise, wow, and put all in awe.
One of my favorite candidates for 2018. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 15, 2017, 07:38:54 AM Mandel has already recruited campaign leaders in all 88 Ohio counties (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/josh_mandel_gearing_up_2018_se.html) At least one of which wasn't consulted on being a campaign chair (http://Josh Mandel's Senate campaign names Portage County chairwoman -- but it's news to her http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/josh_mandels_senate_campaign_n.html). lol Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 15, 2017, 12:49:23 PM No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat. Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year. I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. I don't think Tiberi is running anymore, he tied himself to the Kasich team in Ohio, and the Kasich camp has taken massive damage this past year, I'd be surprised if he'd give up his seat to most likely lose to mandel Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Heisenberg on February 15, 2017, 01:09:30 PM No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat. Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year. I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. I don't think Tiberi is running anymore, he tied himself to the Kasich team in Ohio, and the Kasich camp has taken massive damage this past year, I'd be surprised if he'd give up his seat to most likely lose to mandel Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Pericles on February 15, 2017, 01:59:58 PM Sherrod Brown can actually talk to Ohioans, and he is the kind of progressive people vote for. Mandel is a baby-faced little Marco for Ohio. Trump will be very unpopular by 2018, and I have a hard time seeing the GOP win he seat in an anti-Trump midterm when they couldn't in a presidential election year.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 15, 2017, 02:26:35 PM Sherrod Brown can actually talk to Ohioans, and he is the kind of progressive people vote for. Mandel is a baby-faced little Marco for Ohio. Trump will be very unpopular by 2018, and I have a hard time seeing the GOP win he seat in an anti-Trump midterm when they couldn't in a presidential election year. Sherrod is considered by all to be a talented politician, but someone too far left for his state, mandel isn't beloved but he's a fundraising machine Ohio trends much further right in midterms, than presidentials. That's why they've had only 16 years of a democrat governor(and only one two term democrat governor) since 1963. Finally mandel didn't lose to brown by that large a margin, all things considered. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Pericles on February 15, 2017, 05:05:12 PM Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Young Conservative on February 15, 2017, 05:20:21 PM Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Pericles on February 15, 2017, 05:23:28 PM Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%. Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Heisenberg on February 15, 2017, 06:43:05 PM Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%. Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: jamestroll on February 15, 2017, 07:29:32 PM Heisenberg in the US Senate you may be right but in the House no.
I actually think Democrats will retake control of the House in 2018. Not a significant majority but a working majority unlike the class of 2006 or 2008. Anyway Brown is beatable but I do not think Mandel can do it. Rematches rarely work out. Find a different candidate and Brown could be in trouble quickly. But we can not assume Brown will be booted out just because Ohio voted for Trump. It may be easier for a Democrat to win without the socialist Kenyan born Muslim in office Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on February 15, 2017, 07:39:13 PM Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 15, 2017, 07:53:37 PM Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench. It should be telling that the more qualified Republican office holders are looking at the Governor's mansion and row offices, not D.C. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Heisenberg on February 15, 2017, 08:22:36 PM Heisenberg in the US Senate you may be right but in the House no. I actually think Democrats will retake control of the House in 2018. Not a significant majority but a working majority unlike the class of 2006 or 2008. Anyway Brown is beatable but I do not think Mandel can do it. Rematches rarely work out. Find a different candidate and Brown could be in trouble quickly. But we can not assume Brown will be booted out just because Ohio voted for Trump. It may be easier for a Democrat to win without the socialist Kenyan born Muslim in office Maybe these aren't the best, but there have been plenty of House rematches (1992/94/96, and 2004/06/08/10 cycles) that were successful. Of course, some were massive waves and others not, but still. As a Republican I'd obviously prefer my party keep the House next term. But unless Ellison becomes the face of the Democrats I won't be that disappointed. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Holmes on February 15, 2017, 08:42:26 PM Keeping hating, haters. Josh Mandel will surprise, wow, and put all in awe. One of my favorite candidates for 2018. Literally the most basic, generic and boring candidate that can code out of Ohio's Republicsn bench. If you're going to stan some lame ass candidate at least make it a somewhat interesting one. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 15, 2017, 08:54:59 PM Keeping hating, haters. Josh Mandel will surprise, wow, and put all in awe. One of my favorite candidates for 2018. Literally the most basic, generic and boring candidate that can code out of Ohio's Republicsn bench. If you're going to stan some lame ass candidate at least make it a somewhat interesting one. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Figueira on February 15, 2017, 10:52:25 PM Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%. Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy. Whether a year is a wave for a party or not isn't determined by the number of Senate seats that change hands. The fact that Republicans are favored in North Dakota has absolutely no bearing on Ohio. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Xing on February 15, 2017, 11:20:28 PM Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!? So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either? Certainly not "very likely." It's possible (and I'm not saying it's impossible for Mandel to beat Brown), but Kander might be old news in 2022. Of course Mandel vs. Brown wouldn't be Safe D (unless Brown is up by double digits in September 2018), but Mandel probably needs some wind at his back to beat Brown. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 16, 2017, 03:09:20 PM Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench. It should be telling that the more qualified Republican office holders are looking at the Governor's mansion and row offices, not D.C. Well, I mean Husted has been pretty clear that governor was his end game in politics since his time as speaker, Dewine clearly doesn't want to go back. Mandel, Yost and Taylor are all probably on the same level of candidate skills, All with faults compared to Husted and Dewine. The interesting one is Renacci who by all thinking would be a strong and scary(to democrats) senate candidate, who is interested in hopping into a crowded primary. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Del Tachi on February 16, 2017, 10:40:53 PM Bleh, Mandel. Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Husted's running for Governor? Is DeWine out? Mary Taylor? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 16, 2017, 11:17:33 PM Bleh, Mandel. Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Husted's running for Governor? Is DeWine out? Mary Taylor? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 16, 2017, 11:48:49 PM Bleh, Mandel. Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Husted's running for Governor? Is DeWine out? Mary Taylor? Husted and Dewine are tier one. Taylor and Renacci are tier two. And this thing is a 4 way race as of right now Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: JohnCA246 on February 17, 2017, 12:41:53 AM Wouldn't Kasich run for this seat?
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 17, 2017, 01:02:43 AM Wouldn't Kasich run for this seat? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 21, 2017, 05:26:26 PM Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot (http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/state-treasurer-defends-spending-public-money-ads/0hPrLqfYNhq8lyFV1GbC6I/).
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 21, 2017, 06:02:30 PM Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot (http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/state-treasurer-defends-spending-public-money-ads/0hPrLqfYNhq8lyFV1GbC6I/). Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created? I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like that pre-pubescent humanoid weasel. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Heisenberg on February 21, 2017, 06:07:58 PM Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot (http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/state-treasurer-defends-spending-public-money-ads/0hPrLqfYNhq8lyFV1GbC6I/). Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created? I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like this pre-pubescent humanoid weasel. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 21, 2017, 06:09:29 PM I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Heisenberg on February 21, 2017, 06:23:09 PM I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 21, 2017, 08:39:30 PM I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge. Mary Taylor or Rennacci may decide a one on one with mandel would be preferable to the crowded governor's race, but right now he's getting a pass. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: SATW on February 21, 2017, 08:50:05 PM Josh Mandel is the best
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 21, 2017, 08:57:16 PM "In 2012, Mandel broke with Mitt Romney on foreign policy concerning the status of U.S. military forces in Europe, advocating for their withdrawal in opposing the rehashing of past military conflicts." -Wikipedia
Sounds promising, and, given that Brown is a major Russophobe, there's nothing Ohio has to lose from electing Mandel (admittedly, a very weak candidate relative to Brown). Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 21, 2017, 10:14:01 PM I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge. He's just probably the most reviled politician Ohio. Even many Republicans loathe him. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: houseonaboat on February 21, 2017, 11:07:19 PM Calling Josh Mandel an empty suit may be an insult to Jos A. Bank.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Vosem on February 21, 2017, 11:37:30 PM What Republicans in Ohio don't like Mandel? And, yeah, I'm a big fan; the guy is a real economic conservative who understands the threat posed by Iran (and, by extension, Russia); he's sure to get my vote in 2018, even as I probably vote Democratic for the House to protest Trump.
"In 2012, Mandel broke with Mitt Romney on foreign policy concerning the status of U.S. military forces in Europe, advocating for their withdrawal in opposing the rehashing of past military conflicts." -Wikipedia Sounds promising, and, given that Brown is a major Russophobe, there's nothing Ohio has to lose from electing Mandel (admittedly, a very weak candidate relative to Brown). I would've agreed with that too prior to the Crimea intervention -- while I haven't spoken to him in a while, I'm familiar with his worldview, and I'm virtually certain that as a Senator, Mandel would favor maintaining our European military presence nowadays. He wouldn't be a vocal Trump critic like McCain or Graham, but I could see him finding a natural ally in Tom Cotton, for instance. Mandel is very instinctively hawkish. Bleh, Mandel. Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it. Endorsing Tiberi. Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well. Husted's running for Governor? Is DeWine out? Mary Taylor? Husted, DeWine, Taylor, and Renacci all seem to be gearing up to run. DeWine is the best-funded and has the best name recognition in the field, although Renacci is capable of self-funding. I'd definitely prefer DeWine to any of the other three, as an aside, and a Renacci nomination could get me to vote for the Democrat, depending on who they nominate. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 22, 2017, 06:53:46 AM Interesting a big fan of mandel who prefers dewine, kind of an odd mix.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: UncleSam on February 22, 2017, 03:35:04 PM I read the article, and don't really see anything wrong with it. Did he do it to improve his profile? Sure. But it's entirely in line former as buys in Ohio starting Kasich, Strickland, etc. and it was money spent reasonably to get the word out on an important program. The fact that the proponents of the program itself support the ads and don't feel that Mandel is stealing their spotlight etc. is a good indication that this was perfectly justified.
Of course I haven't seen the ads myself and am just basing my opinion off of the presented evidence within that article, but it sure looks to me like no one cares except the Ohio Democratic Party. Seriously, they don't even have a quote from Sherrod Brown in there denouncing it so it just looks like a typical partisan attempt to malign a legitimately good program from Mandel for political gain. Of course Republicans would also malign Democrats if a Democrat ran this ad so it's important to keep that in mind, but I think this is a win for Mandel in the long run. I don't know any Republicans who not like Mandel so not sure what you're talking about there, but Mandel is a lot more polished than he was six years ago and Republicans have a massive voter registration advantage in the state to boot. Brown is taking the race very seriously though and is a strong candidate, so I do think he is the favorite still to pull out a close win. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 22, 2017, 04:53:23 PM It's a fair bit skeevier than what was originally reported (http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/02/ohio_taxpayers_spent_13_millio.html#incart_river_index). He under-reported the cost initially, and then avoided going to a Control Board by spreading the payments out. There's also a fair difference between television and radio, and Mandel recruited a celebrity for his ad.
It's also probably best for Brown to not bring attention to it. The big papers around the state are picking it up naturally, and he can stay above the fray. What Republicans in Ohio don't like Mandel? And, yeah, I'm a big fan; the guy is a real economic conservative who understands the threat posed by Iran (and, by extension, Russia); he's sure to get my vote in 2018, even as I probably vote Democratic for the House to protest Trump. Quote Husted, DeWine, Taylor, and Renacci all seem to be gearing up to run. DeWine is the best-funded and has the best name recognition in the field, although Renacci is capable of self-funding. I'd definitely prefer DeWine to any of the other three, as an aside, and a Renacci nomination could get me to vote for the Democrat, depending on who they nominate. Actually, Husted's out-raised DeWine.Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: JohnCA246 on February 22, 2017, 06:08:14 PM Why are people confident Kasich isn't going to be the nominee? I'm not disputing this, I would just like to know more.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 22, 2017, 07:22:51 PM Why are people confident Kasich isn't going to be the nominee? I'm not disputing this, I would just like to know more. It's generally a bad sign for Republicans when you've got Democrats who once loathed you singing your praises as the one Republican with integrity. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 22, 2017, 10:48:48 PM Why are people confident Kasich isn't going to be the nominee? I'm not disputing this, I would just like to know more. It's generally a bad sign for Republicans when you've got Democrats who once loathed you singing your praises as the one Republican with integrity. This, and his approval rating among trump voters was under 50%. (In October, probably lower now) I don't think he'd win a primary in Ohio right now. Also, he's not running for it. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on February 22, 2017, 10:51:59 PM It's a fair bit skeevier than what was originally reported (http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/02/ohio_taxpayers_spent_13_millio.html#incart_river_index). He under-reported the cost initially, and then avoided going to a Control Board by spreading the payments out. There's also a fair difference between television and radio, and Mandel recruited a celebrity for his ad. It's also probably best for Brown to not bring attention to it. The big papers around the state are picking it up naturally, and he can stay above the fray. What Republicans in Ohio don't like Mandel? And, yeah, I'm a big fan; the guy is a real economic conservative who understands the threat posed by Iran (and, by extension, Russia); he's sure to get my vote in 2018, even as I probably vote Democratic for the House to protest Trump. Quote Husted, DeWine, Taylor, and Renacci all seem to be gearing up to run. DeWine is the best-funded and has the best name recognition in the field, although Renacci is capable of self-funding. I'd definitely prefer DeWine to any of the other three, as an aside, and a Renacci nomination could get me to vote for the Democrat, depending on who they nominate. Actually, Husted's out-raised DeWine.I think Husted is the best candidate, probably the one the Dems would least like to face Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: rpryor03 on February 22, 2017, 11:33:03 PM Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot (http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/state-treasurer-defends-spending-public-money-ads/0hPrLqfYNhq8lyFV1GbC6I/). Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created? I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like that pre-pubescent humanoid weasel. I could see this. Mandel's a POS, News at 11. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Maxwell on February 22, 2017, 11:38:25 PM Josh Mandel definitely looks and talks like an Atlas user :P
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: SATW on February 23, 2017, 12:04:55 AM Josh Mandel will make the Senate great again, just you guys wait! :)
#CantHandleTheMANdel Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Ronnie on March 19, 2017, 01:55:27 PM Mandel fans the flames of fear with his latest tweet:
Quote "I'm here to die for Allah." Liberal journalists/activists want us to think this has nothing to do with Islam. Silent majority knows better. https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/843524028258275328 Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on March 19, 2017, 01:57:46 PM Mandel fans the flames of fear with his latest tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/843524028258275328 Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Blackacre on March 19, 2017, 04:19:47 PM Mandel fans the flames of fear with his latest tweet: Quote "I'm here to die for Allah." Liberal journalists/activists want us to think this has nothing to do with Islam. Silent majority knows better. https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/843524028258275328 I really hope that man never becomes a Senator Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on March 23, 2017, 11:09:54 PM Mandel fans the flames of fear with his latest tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/843524028258275328 Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Figueira on March 23, 2017, 11:45:28 PM Wow, this Mandel guy is worse than I thought. I hope he loses badly in either the primary or the general.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Kantakouzenos on March 26, 2017, 03:38:18 PM I heard that in 2012, this senate race had the most outside spending of any in the country, most of it being spent on opposing Sherrod Brown. It obviously wasn't enough to unseat Brown, but it's pretty clear that this was a high priority seat for Republicans and business interests to win. I'm sure with Trump winning the state by so much, the money spent there will only go up, so could that be enough to unseat Brown?
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on March 26, 2017, 04:02:04 PM I heard that in 2012, this senate race had the most outside spending of any in the country, most of it being spent on opposing Sherrod Brown. It obviously wasn't enough to unseat Brown, but it's pretty clear that this was a high priority seat for Republicans and business interests to win. I'm sure with Trump winning the state by so much, the money spent there will only go up, so could that be enough to unseat Brown? Nope. Not if Mandel is the Republican nominee, at least :P This race is probably solidly lean-D at worst given that 2018 is likely to be a good Democratic year (at the very least), Brown is a strong and fairly well-liked incumbent whose brand is a great fit for Ohio, and that Mandel is an absolutely horrible candidate (if any politician in America could make Ted Cruz seem likable by comparison, then surely that politician is Josh Mandel). Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on March 26, 2017, 04:37:07 PM Josh Mandel is the poor man's Tom Cotton.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on March 27, 2017, 01:53:35 PM Josh Mandel has a shot now that the Trump swept Ohio. Brown is certainly far from being safe. Mandel could capitalize on Brown being a dinosaur of DC and he could win on that sentiment. Keep dreaming :) Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on March 27, 2017, 02:00:17 PM Josh Mandel has a shot now that the Trump swept Ohio. Brown is certainly far from being safe. Mandel could capitalize on Brown being a dinosaur of DC and he could win on that sentiment. Who better to defeat a dinosaur than a 40 year old man who looks like a dweeby high school sophomore? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on March 27, 2017, 03:41:29 PM Don't discount the dweeby sophomores, they make good politicians you know. You realize Mandel is about as popular as testicular cancer, right? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Devout Centrist on March 27, 2017, 04:28:50 PM If Mandel runs, Sherrod will win. It's a lot closer if Kasich jumps in, but I don't believe he's going to run for office again.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on March 27, 2017, 04:32:51 PM If Mandel runs, Sherrod will win. It's a lot closer if Kasich jumps in, but I don't believe he's going to run for office again. Sherrod is vulnerable, I expect he probably pulls it off, that race will lean D, but he's not going to be Rob Portman. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: houseonaboat on April 03, 2017, 04:33:05 PM Republicans have complete control of Ohio at almost every level and yet the state still has a remarkable ability to produce a never-ending stream of bland, empty careerist politicians.
Seriously, can the GOP find no better candidate for this seat than Josh Mandel? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 03, 2017, 05:08:30 PM Republicans have complete control of Ohio at almost every level and yet the state still has a remarkable ability to produce a never-ending stream of bland, empty careerist politicians. Seriously, can the GOP find no better candidate for this seat than Josh Mandel? Mandel is a top notch fundraiser, who got in early enough to scare anyone else away. The other big names (Jon Husted, Mike DeWine, Mary Taylor) are all lined up to run for Governor. With the exception of Jim Jordan there really isn't a republican congressman with the profile to take out Mandel, although it probably would have been smarter for Renacci to run for Senate instead of the jumbled gubernatorial race Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 04, 2017, 08:13:06 AM Congressman Tiberi, a potential primary rival, attacked Mandel yesterday over the cost and redundancy of OhioCheckbook.gov while speaking at The Ohio State University's Mortiz College of Law (http://In swipe at Josh Mandel, Pat Tiberi says it's 'crazy' that Ohio pays for two different state websites tracking state spending
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/in_swipeatjosh_mandel_pat_tibe.html). Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 04, 2017, 12:33:43 PM Congressman Tiberi, a potential primary rival, attacked Mandel yesterday over the cost and redundancy of OhioCheckbook.gov while speaking at The Ohio State University's Mortiz College of Law (http://In swipe at Josh Mandel, Pat Tiberi says it's 'crazy' that Ohio pays for two different state websites tracking state spending http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/in_swipeatjosh_mandel_pat_tibe.html). Interesting, still don't see Tiberi getting in at this point, he's so damaged Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Figueira on April 04, 2017, 12:37:07 PM Haha, I love your sig, BuckeyeNut.
This race could theoretically go either way, but I have to call Brown favored at this point. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 04, 2017, 12:41:19 PM Haha, I love your sig, BuckeyeNut. This race could theoretically go either way, but I have to call Brown favored at this point. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 04, 2017, 01:47:16 PM Haha, I love your sig, BuckeyeNut. This race could theoretically go either way, but I have to call Brown favored at this point. Just parodying Extreme Republican. It's at least Tilt D right now. I'm taking nothing for granted anymore. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: ShadowRocket on April 08, 2017, 04:38:24 PM I personally feel pretty optimistic about Brown's chances at the moment as I think he can tap into much of the same economic populism that Trump did.
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Pericles on April 08, 2017, 06:48:57 PM I personally feel pretty optimistic about Brown's chances at the moment as I think he can tap into much of the same economic populism that Trump did. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on April 14, 2017, 12:16:58 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 14, 2017, 12:23:41 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking Tiberi for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 12:26:09 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. An Ad against Tiberi you mean? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 14, 2017, 12:29:39 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. An Ad against Tiberi you mean? Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 12:33:58 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. An Ad against Tiberi you mean? I find the point of it odd, may just be a test run, zero chance Tiberi gets in, and less than zero chance he were to defeat mandel Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on April 14, 2017, 01:00:34 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. An Ad against Tiberi you mean? That said I'm sure Club for Growth *will * run ads against Sherrod for not being conservative enough :P Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 01:04:13 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. An Ad against Tiberi you mean? That said I'm sure Club for Growth *will * run ads against Sherrod for not being conservative enough :P Sure will, a lot of money will go into this race, mandel is an exceptional fundraiser. He'll attack brown for being too liberal for the state (he is). Brown will attack mandel for being too slimy (he is). Things will get ugly Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on April 14, 2017, 01:07:46 PM Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017. (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/sherrod_brown_raises_hefty_24.html) Truly an excellent haul. In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YKg86xh254&feature=youtu.be) attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December. An Ad against Tiberi you mean? That said I'm sure Club for Growth *will * run ads against Sherrod for not being conservative enough :P Sure will, a lot of money will go into this race, mandel is an exceptional fundraiser. He'll attack brown for being too liberal for the state (he is). Brown will attack mandel for being too slimy (he is). Things will get ugly Eh, he's lefty in a way that I (obviously as an outsider, so grain of salt) see as compatible with Ohio. I think provided he keeps the money relatively even, he stands a pretty good chance of being fine. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on April 14, 2017, 01:13:48 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio?
Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 01:41:51 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio? Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on April 14, 2017, 01:50:45 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio? Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats. 41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/27/how-do-americans-feel-about-single-payer-health-care-its-complicated/?utm_term=.31ad3d8d0e14)58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue. On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 01:59:51 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio? Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats. 41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/27/how-do-americans-feel-about-single-payer-health-care-its-complicated/?utm_term=.31ad3d8d0e14)58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue. On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal. When asked if they support single payer they say yes, when told what single payer is they don't like it. The majority of people have no idea what single payer actually means, it just sounds nice and they "support" it. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/people-have-no-idea-what-single-payer-means/471045/ And don't say it's republican BS because I even took it from the Atlantic. so few people understand polls. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on April 14, 2017, 02:12:30 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio? Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats. 41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/27/how-do-americans-feel-about-single-payer-health-care-its-complicated/?utm_term=.31ad3d8d0e14)58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue. On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal. When asked if they support single payer they say yes, when told what single payer is they don't like it. The majority of people have no idea what single payer actually means, it just sounds nice and they "support" it. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/people-have-no-idea-what-single-payer-means/471045/ And don't say it's republican BS because I even took it from the Atlantic. so few people understand polls. So you're predicting that the NRSC is going to spend time explaining what single payer healthcare is in TV time in order to attack Brown? Point being, the attack ad goes "Senator Sherrod Brown supports socialized medicine," Brown responds, "I support single payer!" Null issue, since the terminology is viewed favorably. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 02:24:39 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio? Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats. 41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/27/how-do-americans-feel-about-single-payer-health-care-its-complicated/?utm_term=.31ad3d8d0e14)58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue. On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal. When asked if they support single payer they say yes, when told what single payer is they don't like it. The majority of people have no idea what single payer actually means, it just sounds nice and they "support" it. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/people-have-no-idea-what-single-payer-means/471045/ And don't say it's republican BS because I even took it from the Atlantic. so few people understand polls. So you're predicting that the NRSC is going to spend time explaining what single payer healthcare is in TV time in order to attack Brown? Point being, the attack ad goes "Senator Sherrod Brown supports socialized medicine," Brown responds, "I support single payer!" Null issue, since the terminology is viewed favorably. Sherrod Brown supports Government take-over of health-care. Thats all the attack you need, especially in a place like Ohio where they hate that so much the voters put it into the state constitution. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: publicunofficial on April 14, 2017, 02:49:02 PM So not only is Brown going to face the same opponent as 2012, but he'll also be using the same attacks from 2012 (Obamacare!)?
You can't just assume trends + midterm turnout will bail you out. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 14, 2017, 02:52:05 PM I would wager that attacking Brown for not supporting the Muslim ban and being "pro-abortion/illegal immigrants/gun control" would all go down better than attacking him on healthcare, given that the free market solution for healthcare is going down like a lead Zeppelin and obamacare becomes less of a live wire of an issue.
I think Sherrod will manage it. Mandel seems like a relic of the Tea Party era. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on April 14, 2017, 03:16:47 PM I would wager that attacking Brown for not supporting the Muslim ban and being "pro-abortion/illegal immigrants/gun control" would all go down better than attacking him on healthcare, given that the free market solution for healthcare is going down like a lead Zeppelin and obamacare becomes less of a live wire of an issue. I think Sherrod will manage it. Mandel seems like a relic of the Tea Party era. Brown's not gonna lose to Mandel, period. Even in a Hillary midterm, he'd have probably beaten Mandel. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Rjjr77 on April 14, 2017, 03:52:41 PM So not only is Brown going to face the same opponent as 2012, but he'll also be using the same attacks from 2012 (Obamacare!)? You can't just assume trends + midterm turnout will bail you out. im expecting Sherrod Brown to win, but lets not act like he's invincible. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on April 14, 2017, 04:07:08 PM So not only is Brown going to face the same opponent as 2012, but he'll also be using the same attacks from 2012 (Obamacare!)? You can't just assume trends + midterm turnout will bail you out. im expecting Sherrod Brown to win, but lets not act like he's invincible. He might as well be if he's running against Josh Mandel :P Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: NeverAgain on April 14, 2017, 05:04:30 PM I wish this little manchild well in his endeavors.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 16, 2017, 03:12:16 PM Thanks to the mods who consolidated the threads.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on April 16, 2017, 06:03:54 PM Especially since Kasich won't be running, Brown will carry the seat again.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: Figueira on April 16, 2017, 07:32:17 PM Has Kasich definitively said that he isn't running? I know it's been heavily implied.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: Maxwell on April 16, 2017, 08:01:57 PM Has Kasich definitively said that he isn't running? I know it's been heavily implied. I'm ready to say I think Mandel would beat him in the primary. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: Pericles on April 16, 2017, 08:06:00 PM Brown will beat Mandel by double digits.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 16, 2017, 08:13:01 PM Brown will beat Mandel by double digits. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 16, 2017, 08:55:26 PM Brown will beat Mandel by double digits. Title: Re: Josh Mandel running again Post by: Shadows on April 16, 2017, 09:24:44 PM What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio? Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats. 41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/27/how-do-americans-feel-about-single-payer-health-care-its-complicated/?utm_term=.31ad3d8d0e14)58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue. On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal. When asked if they support single payer they say yes, when told what single payer is they don't like it. The majority of people have no idea what single payer actually means, it just sounds nice and they "support" it. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/people-have-no-idea-what-single-payer-means/471045/ And don't say it's republican BS because I even took it from the Atlantic. so few people understand polls. Majority of people do. 60%go for Federal Government has responsibility to ensure healthcare coverage. And 58% in this poll want federal government to provide insurance to everyone. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/27/how-do-americans-feel-about-single-payer-health-care-its-complicated/?utm_term=.d7ecbd574513 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/13/more-americans-say-government-should-ensure-health-care-coverage/ft_17-01-13_healthcoverage_responsibility/ Even in the worst possible poll for Single Payer with "Single Payer" written, 44% support explicitly a Single Payer, 36% oppose, rest undecided. In every single poll, people support a version of Single Payer. The support dramatically increased when the world Federal Government funded or Medicare type terms are used which people can relate to, but even with Single Payer, people support it far more than they oppose it. Independents strongly support a Single-Payer & the number of Republicans supporting it has only massively risen to a point where the "Yes" voters are getting close to the "N" voters! The people who are peddling this theory are themselves fringe uber right wing people. https://morningconsult.com/2017/04/12/plurality-voters-back-single-payer-health-care-system/ Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on April 16, 2017, 09:42:08 PM Has Kasich definitively said that he isn't running? I know it's been heavily implied. Yes, just look it up online. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 18, 2017, 10:03:24 AM Josh Mandel raised $1.5 mil (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/josh_mandel_raises_nearly_15m.html), $900k less than Brown, in Quarter 1. His total cash on hand is around $2.4 mil, which Brown raised in Q1 alone. Brown has $3.2 on hand (http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2017/02/01/Sen-Brown-builds-3-2-million-war-chest-for-re-election.html).
Pat Tiberi, meanwhile, raised $1.4 mil and has a whopping $6.3 mil on hand. In his Q1 expenditures (http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00347492/1157966/sb/ALL), Tiberi hired an Alexandria, VA-based firm for statewide polling. Also, Mandel got the endorsement of Citizens United (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/citizens_united_pac_endorses_j.html#incart_river_mobile_index). Title: Re: OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown is in the Money Post by: Suburbia on April 18, 2017, 10:13:41 AM Tossup. Can go either way.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 28, 2017, 04:08:12 PM State House Republicans added an amendment to the budget targeting Mandel that (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170428/gop-lawmakers-target-mandel-with-budget-amendment), "requires Controlling Board approval of any advertising purchased by a state governmental entity for the same purpose that, in the aggregate, exceeds $50,000 during the fiscal year.”
Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: Lachi on April 29, 2017, 07:00:20 AM Wow, and republicans call us delusional...
Brown will smash Mandel. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 02, 2017, 09:31:58 AM Tiberi still hasn't made up his mind. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170501/tiberi-has-cash-but-does-he-have-what-it-takes-to-run-for-senate)
His bank account is bursting, and if Clinton was President, Tiberi could have easily dispatched Mandel in a primary. The fact that Ryan didn't support Tiberi's bid for Chairman of Ways & Means may indicate Tiberi's bored with the House, but it's hard to say. The Kasich-Tiberi-Boehner brand of Republicanism is not fairing well here. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: Rjjr77 on May 02, 2017, 11:04:42 AM Tiberi still hasn't made up his mind. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170501/tiberi-has-cash-but-does-he-have-what-it-takes-to-run-for-senate) His bank account is bursting, and if Clinton was President, Tiberi could have easily dispatched Mandel in a primary. The fact that Ryan didn't support Tiberi's bid for Chairman of Ways & Means may indicate Tiberi's bored with the House, but it's hard to say. The Kasich-Tiberi-Boehner brand of Republicanism is not fairing well here. Tiberi would be foolish to run right now, mandel could easily be beat by another candidate, but it's not going to be a late entry Tiberi. Never trump would kill him Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: Ye We Can on May 02, 2017, 09:30:18 PM If Josh Mandel is all we can get we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: Rjjr77 on May 02, 2017, 10:24:52 PM If Josh Mandel is all we can get we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: Heisenberg on May 02, 2017, 11:33:17 PM If Josh Mandel is all we can get we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 03, 2017, 01:34:55 AM Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: Rjjr77 on May 03, 2017, 07:07:42 AM Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi Still Fence Sitting Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 03, 2017, 08:19:22 AM Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide. Jordan would be a horrible candidate and is a pretty obnoxious guy to boot. He's easily one of the more unlikable politicians in Ohio on either side (up there with Josh Mandel). I'd also argue that Tim Ryan probably has higher name recognition in Ohio and that Ryan, Stivers, Tiberi, and Beatty all have better fundraising connections than Jordan (part of this is b/c Jordan is by all account such an insufferable pr!ck that it's often almost impossible to work with him, to the point that he came very close to having his seat eliminated in the last round of redistricting b/c he'd managed to piss off so many folks in the OH GOP). There's essentially no meaningful similarity between Brown and Jordan's brands either. Jordan's brand is essentially "I'm a proudly right-wing on everything and I'll act like a caveman whenever I d*** well please because f*** those liberal wimps and RINO squishes who are always being so PC. I'd gladly take permanent minority status over any form of compromise every day of the week." He's like a cross between Jim DeMint and Krazen :P He also doesn't have much of a geographic base in the state either. Sherrod Brown's brand is that essentially that he's a highly principled, fiercely pro-union economic populist who has always looked out for Ohio's working class and won't throw blue-colar Ohioans under the bus. He is pretty also well-respected (even a number of Republicans here at least consider him a decent enough guy) and doesn't really come across as a partisan hack or a far-left bomb-thrower. TL;DR: Jordan would struggle in a statewide primary because even some of the tea-partiers (to the extent that's even still a thing) can't stand him (to say nothing of everyone else in Ohio) and it's not impossible to see him losing the Republican primary in his own district to an A-list challenger (although I doubt that he'll face one before the next re-districting). Brown is a well-respected and pretty well-liked Senator with a solid base among blue-collar Ohioans. Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 03, 2017, 09:26:49 AM Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide. Jordan would be a horrible candidate and is a pretty obnoxious guy to boot. He's easily one of the more unlikable politicians in Ohio on either side (up there with Josh Mandel). I'd also argue that Tim Ryan probably has higher name recognition in Ohio and that Ryan, Stivers, Tiberi, and Beatty all have better fundraising connections than Jordan (part of this is b/c Jordan is by all account such an insufferable pr!ck that it's often almost impossible to work with him, to the point that he came very close to having his seat eliminated in the last round of redistricting b/c he'd managed to piss off so many folks in the OH GOP). There's essentially no meaningful similarity between Brown and Jordan's brands either. Jordan's brand is essentially "I'm a proudly right-wing on everything and I'll act like a caveman whenever I d*** well please because f*** those liberal wimps and RINO squishes who are always being so PC. I'd gladly take permanent minority status over any form of compromise every day of the week." He's like a cross between Jim DeMint and Krazen :P He also doesn't have much of a geographic base in the state either. Sherrod Brown's brand is that essentially that he's a highly principled, fiercely pro-union economic populist who has always looked out for Ohio's working class and won't throw blue-colar Ohioans under the bus. He is pretty also well-respected (even a number of Republicans here at least consider him a decent enough guy) and doesn't really come across as a partisan hack or a far-left bomb-thrower. TL;DR: Jordan would struggle in a statewide primary because even some of the tea-partiers (to the extent that's even still a thing) can't stand him (to say nothing of everyone else in Ohio) and it's not impossible to see him losing the Republican primary in his own district to an A-list challenger (although I doubt that he'll face one before the next re-districting). Brown is a well-respected and pretty well-liked Senator with a solid base among blue-collar Ohioans. Jordan may be well known, but it isn't for anything good. If Republicans are mad at Tiberi for holding up ACHA, they must really hate Jordan. Also, the bolded is important. Jordan almost lost his district in '12. He should have never risen above State Senator for the Lima-area. ION: Kasich suggests he won't endorse Mandel in the Senate general election. (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/02/john-kasich-presidential-run-off-message-237862) Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: The Other Castro on May 16, 2017, 11:27:31 AM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Brittain33 on May 16, 2017, 11:43:36 AM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option. Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: KingSweden on May 16, 2017, 11:46:13 AM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option. He's ultra super duper safe in his district and has a massive war chest. I think he made a rational call Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Holmes on May 16, 2017, 12:03:42 PM He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 16, 2017, 01:29:19 PM He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier. Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: windjammer on May 16, 2017, 01:31:46 PM He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier. Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 16, 2017, 01:38:11 PM He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier. Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. Against Mandel? Definitely. Against Tiberi? Probably a narrow loss for Brown (2-3%), but it'd be really close either way. It'd be one of the marquee races of the cycle. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 16, 2017, 03:46:26 PM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option. He's ultra super duper safe in his district and has a massive war chest. I think he made a rational call. His district actually trended (non-Atlas) blue last year and the Indivisible group in his district is very fierce. It's not the OH-16th, but he could fall next year if things go sideways and an A-list candidate emerges. (But there aren't really any A-listers in the district. Kilroy-retread notwithstanding.) Title: Re: OH-SEN: Portman endorses mandel Post by: Rjjr77 on May 25, 2017, 11:30:42 AM After I had been hearing early rumors about another congressman possibly challenging Mandel, Rob Portman surprisingly endorsed Mandel very early, essentially clearing the field.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: RogueBeaver on May 25, 2017, 07:14:03 PM Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job. (https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/key-republicans-are-encouraging-hillbilly-elegy-author-jd?utm_term=.gpnoV3dGz#.cpn7vd4lJ)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: publicunofficial on May 25, 2017, 07:53:02 PM Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job. (https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/key-republicans-are-encouraging-hillbilly-elegy-author-jd?utm_term=.gpnoV3dGz#.cpn7vd4lJ) A JD Vance/Josh Mandel primary would be a contest to see which one I hate more. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Figueira on May 25, 2017, 08:07:41 PM That decision kind of makes sense--Brown is probably at least somewhat favored against anyone (well, anyone who could plausibly run) and Tiberi is fine in his district.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 25, 2017, 08:56:22 PM Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job. (https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/key-republicans-are-encouraging-hillbilly-elegy-author-jd?utm_term=.gpnoV3dGz#.cpn7vd4lJ) Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Rjjr77 on May 25, 2017, 10:53:49 PM Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job. (https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/key-republicans-are-encouraging-hillbilly-elegy-author-jd?utm_term=.gpnoV3dGz#.cpn7vd4lJ) Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh vance is no where near ready to run for senate. Only thing i could see him possibly winning would be an Auditor's GOP primary, and even thats a stretch at this juncture Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 25, 2017, 11:31:10 PM Portman endorsing Mandel just goes to show X's point about Ohio Republican "moderates" from the gubernatorial thread.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 26, 2017, 09:51:01 AM Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job. (https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/key-republicans-are-encouraging-hillbilly-elegy-author-jd?utm_term=.gpnoV3dGz#.cpn7vd4lJ) Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh vance is no where near ready to run for senate. Only thing i could see him possibly winning would be an Auditor's GOP primary, and even thats a stretch at this juncture Not a chance (although I'd love for him to be the nominee as we'd get a near-automatic pickup). Vance would be seen by pretty much everyone outside the professional talking heads as as some random Silicon Valley elitist who left OH the first chance he got and didn't come back until he decided to take a stab at carpetbagging. He's no more from Ohio than John Kerry was from Colorado. He's not from here anymore. On top of that, Vance has no name recognition, no political base, and his book would be easy to portray as taking a massive s*** all over rural Ohio. Folks don't like having their dirty laundry aired in public. And his campaign would almost certainly be seen by most Ohioans as "Hey dumb hicks, it's me, random West Coast Rich Dude! I wrote a book about how your lives suck b/c you're too lazy to work hard and act responsibly; liberal media types love it! Vote for me! Did I mention that I wrote a book?" Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Kingpoleon on May 27, 2017, 02:57:20 AM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: mvd10 on May 27, 2017, 05:50:54 AM Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job. (https://www.buzzfeed.com/henrygomez/key-republicans-are-encouraging-hillbilly-elegy-author-jd?utm_term=.gpnoV3dGz#.cpn7vd4lJ) A JD Vance/Josh Mandel primary would be a contest to see which one I Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 27, 2017, 09:01:45 AM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Coolface Sock #42069 on May 27, 2017, 10:17:48 AM Can someone other than Mandel for this seat? I'd prefer not to see another 6 years of Sherrod Brown.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Kingpoleon on May 27, 2017, 11:35:11 AM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey. Both are very moderate, even more so than Portman, Kasich, and Tiberi. They're the only ones I can see even getting within 5% now. Title: Re: OH-SEN: NO ONE likes Josh Mandel Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 27, 2017, 12:02:58 PM Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate. http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey. Both are very moderate, even more so than Portman, Kasich, and Tiberi. They're the only ones I can see even getting within 5% now. Implying there are actual moderates in the OH Republican Party. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Kingpoleon on May 27, 2017, 05:00:50 PM Saying Duffey isn't a moderate is interesting. ACU gives him a 56% in 2016, which is the same they have as the ratings of Frank LoBiondo, Adam Kinzinger, and Charlie Dent, all three of whom are undoubtedly moderates.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 27, 2017, 05:29:38 PM Saying Duffey isn't a moderate is interesting. ACU gives him a 56% in 2016, which is the same they have as the ratings of Frank LoBiondo, Adam Kinzinger, and Charlie Dent, all three of whom are undoubtedly moderates. I'm pretty sure LoBiondo and especially Kinzinger are not moderates by any reasonable definition, but thanks for playing :) Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: Rjjr77 on May 29, 2017, 07:25:06 PM Can someone other than Mandel for this seat? I'd prefer not to see another 6 years of Sherrod Brown. short of someone like Bill Johnson getting in at this point, i think the Portman endorsement set this in stone. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Tiberi OUT Post by: RogueBeaver on May 31, 2017, 02:15:58 PM Self-funder Michael Gibbons is in. (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/869994172601819136)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: GOP Primary? Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 31, 2017, 03:40:18 PM Self-funder Michael Gibbons is in. (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/869994172601819136) Not gonna go anywhere. Especially as, per Cleveland.com, Gibbons won't run as a self-funder (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/05/cleveland_banker_mike_gibbons.html). Title: Re: OH-SEN: GOP Primary? Post by: Rjjr77 on May 31, 2017, 04:50:40 PM Self-funder Michael Gibbons is in. (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/869994172601819136) Not gonna go anywhere. Especially as, per Cleveland.com, Gibbons won't run as a self-funder (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/05/cleveland_banker_mike_gibbons.html). Yawn. not a serious challenger Title: Re: OH-SEN: GOP Primary? Post by: BuckeyeNut on June 02, 2017, 09:47:26 AM Gibbons announces having raised $250k in the first 24 hours of his campaign, none of it from him. (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/06/ohio_gop_senate_primary_heats.html#incart_river_index) For comparison, Mandel raised $550k in the first 3 months of 2017.
If nothing else, it looks like Gibbons will bleed Mandel's wallet much earlier than anticipated. Title: Re: OH-SEN: GOP Primary? Post by: SATW on June 02, 2017, 01:02:45 PM The OH GOP is a joke. They need to get behind Mandel or put up a real challenger. I am a strong backer of Mandel, but if they really don't want him then put up a challenger.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: GOP Primary? Post by: Rjjr77 on June 02, 2017, 09:11:08 PM The OH GOP is a joke. They need to get behind Mandel or put up a real challenger. I am a strong backer of Mandel, but if they really don't want him then put up a challenger. Mandel will win, the party won't play favorites and Sherrod will still be tilt leader Title: Re: OH-SEN: GOP Primary? Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on June 02, 2017, 09:16:00 PM The OH GOP is a joke. They need to get behind Mandel or put up a real challenger. I am a strong backer of Mandel, but if they really don't want him then put up a challenger. Mandel will win, the party won't play favorites and Sherrod will still be tilt leader Brown will kick Ted Cruz Jr's a** and it'll so much fun to watch. Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: BuckeyeNut on June 19, 2017, 10:32:28 PM Financial disclosure of Mandel's travel in 2016 shows all of it as political. (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2017/06/17/josh-mandels-travels-2016-infused-politics/406265001/)
Mandel claims he consolidated official business under political so there was no chance tax dollars went to political travel, but ... now it's really hard to find what, if any, out-of-state work he did. This perpetuates his careerist image, and wouldn't be surprised if it winds up in an ad. Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: Rjjr77 on June 19, 2017, 11:41:04 PM Financial disclosure of Mandel's travel in 2016 shows all of it as political. (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2017/06/17/josh-mandels-travels-2016-infused-politics/406265001/) Mandel claims he consolidated official business under political so there was no chance tax dollars went to political travel, but ... now it's really hard to find what, if any, out-of-state work he did. This perpetuates his careerist image, and wouldn't be surprised if it winds up in an ad. He paid for his own travel though, what's the ad? Politician pays for political travel with political dollars? Sherrod can't really smack him for traveling, it's also not really a move that benefits brown. If mandel had a real primary it could be an ad, seems more like slow news day to md Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 10, 2017, 01:06:40 PM Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170710/brown-raises-26m-in-second-quarter), a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 10, 2017, 02:09:59 PM Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170710/brown-raises-26m-in-second-quarter), a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel. At least we have this going for us. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 10, 2017, 02:15:42 PM Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170710/brown-raises-26m-in-second-quarter), a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel. At least we have this going for us. The only Ohio polls out so far are Gravis and PPD. Both are bunk. That said, Brown needs to be on his A game, and as of now, he is. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on July 10, 2017, 04:19:30 PM Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170710/brown-raises-26m-in-second-quarter), a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel. At least we have this going for us. The only Ohio polls out so far are Gravis and PPD. Both are bunk. That said, Brown needs to be on his A game, and as of now, he is. Brown's only setting is A-game mode :P Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Badger on July 11, 2017, 06:34:43 PM Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing?
The answer should be clear. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 17, 2017, 03:50:35 PM Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170717/mandel-raises-half-of-what-sherrod-brown-took-in-last-quarter), half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Virginiá on July 17, 2017, 04:08:18 PM Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170717/mandel-raises-half-of-what-sherrod-brown-took-in-last-quarter), half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not. Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 17, 2017, 06:38:54 PM Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170717/mandel-raises-half-of-what-sherrod-brown-took-in-last-quarter), half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not. Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time? Not that I'm aware. He's definitely going for the Bernie angle, his Facebook ads and some emails note the average contribution is $27. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on July 18, 2017, 01:35:57 AM Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170717/mandel-raises-half-of-what-sherrod-brown-took-in-last-quarter), half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not. Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time? Not that I'm aware. He's definitely going for the Bernie angle, his Facebook ads and some emails note the average contribution is $27. However, much like Bernie, I would be surprised if he objected to the UAW (or someone's) PAC cutting an ad for him and running it. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Vosem on July 18, 2017, 02:08:49 AM Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing? The answer should be clear. Thing is that, if we're comparing this to 2012, these are areas Mandel performed really poorly in; if he can make some consistent improvements in areas that Trump won by a lot (not necessarily even to the point of winning them outright), he's made up a great deal of the distance between him and Brown. He also doesn't really have much further to fall in Hamilton/Franklin Counties. "Midwestern rural areas" are also some of the places Trump is (at least, according to polling) holding up best, and it's exactly where Mandel hopes to make easy gains. You have to remember that in 2012 Obama was pretty popular in Ohio and Kasich was pretty much at the bottom of a trough in approvals -- hated. Something that reversed itself astonishingly quickly. But even if Trump's approval patterns stay right about where they are now, Mandel still probably improves on his 2012 performance, to something like a 1-3 point defeat. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Rjjr77 on July 18, 2017, 06:33:44 AM Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing? The answer should be clear. Thing is that, if we're comparing this to 2012, these are areas Mandel performed really poorly in; if he can make some consistent improvements in areas that Trump won by a lot (not necessarily even to the point of winning them outright), he's made up a great deal of the distance between him and Brown. He also doesn't really have much further to fall in Hamilton/Franklin Counties. "Midwestern rural areas" are also some of the places Trump is (at least, according to polling) holding up best, and it's exactly where Mandel hopes to make easy gains. You have to remember that in 2012 Obama was pretty popular in Ohio and Kasich was pretty much at the bottom of a trough in approvals -- hated. Something that reversed itself astonishingly quickly. But even if Trump's approval patterns stay right about where they are now, Mandel still probably improves on his 2012 performance, to something like a 1-3 point defeat. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: UncleSam on July 18, 2017, 07:02:24 AM Remind me how much Ossoff raised again
Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 18, 2017, 10:28:35 AM Remind me how much Ossoff raised again Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them. Ossoff's race was always unwinnable, and people rushed into it for the wrong reasons. It has nothing to do with this election. Frankly speaking, money's a pretty good barometer of support, and Republicans outraise Democrats in Ohio the vast majority of the time. Sherrod's got a message, and it's not explicitly anti-Trump. See statements about how he, Portman, Capito, and Donnelly could fix ACA (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170706/sherrod-brown-says-he-rob-portman-2-others-could-fix-obamacare); or how he's excited to work with Trump on infrastructure and trade (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/sherrod-brown-reelection-trump-237231). Brown's an OG protectionist, people know it, and that position has always been to his benefit. As for demographics, you have Democrats on the coast who see that states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are losing populations and say "what's the point in trying to get these guys back when the center of population is headed further southwest, and the average American is increasingly less white?" and then you have Democrats in those states who realize you need to make plays to the WWC to actually win, and that a 50-state strategy is the best strategy. All that said, Columbus and its suburbs are pretty much the only parts of the state that are actually growing, and they're trending heavily to the left, despite still being pretty white. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on July 18, 2017, 06:15:34 PM Remind me how much Ossoff raised again Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them. Sherrod Brown isn't a squirrelly looking 30 yo former congressional staffer running in an un-winnable district spending millions of dollars on ads in which he's looking down at a phone and tweeting. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: UncleSam on July 18, 2017, 07:15:45 PM Clinton did seven points better in GA-6 than she did in Ohio.
While she obviously had better net appeal in comparison to Trump in the former vs the latter, it is not believable to argue that GA-6 was 'unwinnable' while Ohio is (presumably) winnable. Additionally, both of you seem to be missing the overarching point: money, past a certain point, does not help secure votes (and in some cases it can be actively detrimental). All that raising money shows is that a candidate is popular with the mainstream donor class of his or her respective party, which obviously is a good sign but is not nearly as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Of course, the reason people in this thread are making it out to be a big deal is that they like Sherrod Brown a lot, despise Josh Mandel, and cannot in their worst nightmare imagine how the latter could defeat the former. The reality is that Republican-aligned voters now outnumber Democrat-aligned voters by almost 800,000 in the state, and that Democrats will need a massive turnout of low-propensity voters in 2018 COMBINED with a strong appeal to Obama-Trump voters in order to win. This is a difficult task. If anyone is up to it, Sherrod Brown is. He has strong appeal in the Obama-Trump areas of the state (North coast and Mahoning valley areas in particular), and is popular with mainstream Democrats as well. He definitely has a chance, but it's hard for me to buy the argument he is anything better than a coin flip, at absolute best. Maybe the dynamics of the race will change (god knows there is a lot of time before the election) but if the vote were held today I'd happily offer 3-1 odds against Brown as a handicapper. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: _ on July 18, 2017, 07:37:16 PM Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170710/brown-raises-26m-in-second-quarter), a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel. At least we have this going for us. I wanted to ask you how you rate this race since you seem to be someone who doesn't believe that Sherrod Brown is invincible. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 18, 2017, 07:46:08 PM lol, k.
1: Ohio's a lot more elastic than the Georgia 6th. The Democratic ceiling is lower than the Republican one, but they're both high. 2: Tell Senator Portman that "money, past a certain point, does not help secure voters." What you're missing is: 2a: Mandel kept much better pace with Brown this time last cycle. Brown's the best Democratic fundraiser in Ohio since Glenn and Metzenbaum, and he's breaking records. 2b: Brown's fundraising -- unlike Mandel's -- is based in small dollar donations which is a good barometer of organic, grassroots energy. 3: Turnout was up slightly in Ohio, but it was down throughout NEOH, which is the Democratic base. Brown doesn't have Hillary's image problems and should have little difficulty bringing back Obama-Trump voters. They were his voters in 2012 and 2006, after all. 4: We have yet to see a good poll of Ohio. Mandel is unpopular with large segments of the OH GOP who see him as a careerist and an insider. Not a good brand to go out and win Trump, even if he uses his inflammatory rhetoric. 5: Brown is not invincible, but at this point, he is still favored to win re-election Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: SATW on July 18, 2017, 08:04:50 PM I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column.
Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: _ on July 18, 2017, 08:20:17 PM I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column. Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! Ok you seem like the Jimmie of this race for Mandel, but the polls so far have given you some reason to believe he's favored, but until I see like PPP or a non partisan pollster saying Mandel +3 or more i'm keeping it at Tossup. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: TheSaint250 on July 18, 2017, 08:39:18 PM I'm really excited for this race. This could prove whether or not Ohio's quick trend towards the GOP was not just a one-time fluke.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: SATW on July 18, 2017, 09:00:11 PM I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column. Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! Ok you seem like the Jimmie of this race for Mandel, but the polls so far have given you some reason to believe he's favored, but until I see like PPP or a non partisan pollster saying Mandel +3 or more i'm keeping it at Tossup. I'm definitely biased in favor of Mandel, but I'm also overdoing it a bit on purpose :P Mandel has a better shot than most people think, imo, but it's too early to tell who is really favored at this point. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: _ on July 18, 2017, 09:31:04 PM I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column. Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! Ok you seem like the Jimmie of this race for Mandel, but the polls so far have given you some reason to believe he's favored, but until I see like PPP or a non partisan pollster saying Mandel +3 or more i'm keeping it at Tossup. I'm definitely biased in favor of Mandel, but I'm also overdoing it a bit on purpose :P Mandel has a better shot than most people think, imo, but it's too early to tell who is really favored at this point. Well I like Mandel, seems like he is a decent enough fit for the state (Though may be a tad to the right). This race will be interesting to see whether Conservative or Progressive populism triumphs when pitted against one another, and to see if Ohio is truly moving rightwards. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on July 18, 2017, 09:54:45 PM I don't think some of our non-Ohio blue avatars understand just how widely and intensely hated Mandel is by...well...pretty much everyone in Ohio :P
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on July 18, 2017, 10:09:35 PM Magnificent Mandel reading the blue avvies on this thread:
() Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Adam Griffin on July 19, 2017, 06:15:54 AM ^^^ Geez, I'm glad I'll never have to bare the burden of losing my hair and still looking like a twelve year-old.
Anyway, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at one potential scenario that compares Clinton and Brown's previous vote totals. Essentially, I'm operating under a scenario where Brown is able to hold both his turnout and support levels at proportions identical to 2012 in the six largest county voting blocs. At the same time, we assume that Brown's '18 vote share in the other 82 counties would be: [Brown '12 margin - ([Clinton '16 margin - Brown '12 margin]/2)] Simply put, we split the difference between Brown and Clinton's margins, assuming Brown only wins half of Brown-Trump voters and Mandel picks up the other half. The end result is a nail-biter; 0.6 points in favor of Brown. In a presidential electorate, the margin is about 33,000 votes. I'd assume in a mid-term it'd be around 20-25k votes. If anything, this shows how important the urban clusters are going to be in this race. () Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: RogueBeaver on July 20, 2017, 12:50:18 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Gass3268 on July 20, 2017, 01:09:15 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Yikes Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Kamala on July 20, 2017, 01:18:19 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Yikes Mandel's siding with the Pizzagate, Seth Rich, "date rape does not exist" guy. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: publicunofficial on July 20, 2017, 01:32:28 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Manboys with horrific political views gotta stay together. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on July 20, 2017, 01:34:14 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Yikes Mandel's siding with the Pizzagate, Seth Rich, "date rape does not exist" guy. Yep, he's siding with the alt-right against the ADL. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on July 20, 2017, 02:27:30 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Yikes Mandel's siding with the Pizzagate, Seth Rich, "date rape does not exist" guy. Yep, he's siding with the alt-right against the ADL. Mandel always struck me as a mindset enthusiast. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: The Mikado on July 20, 2017, 03:15:46 PM The other guy Mandel endorsed, besides Cernovich, is Jack Posobiec.
This Jack Posobiec: https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/888047803305533440 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: KingSweden on July 20, 2017, 05:06:58 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Isn't Josh Mandel Jewish? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: TheSaint250 on July 20, 2017, 05:15:39 PM I can see disagreeing with some of what the ADL does but making himself associated with the other two isn't good as a whole, but I get the feeling that no one will care (and Brown won't do anything about it) come November 2018
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on July 20, 2017, 05:19:40 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) This is going to be plastered on every Ohio ad until 2018. First GOP candidate to openly embrace alt-rightism. Never thought I could despise Josh Mandel more than I currently do. He's going to Todd Aiken this race. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: krazen1211 on July 20, 2017, 05:25:42 PM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Kamala on July 20, 2017, 05:27:48 PM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls. ...... the antisemitic left hacked Josh Mandel's twitter and tweeted this out? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on July 20, 2017, 05:31:09 PM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls. Please, Josh is doing exactly what caused him to lose in 2012: saying idiotic things that eventually caused his own party to abandon him. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 20, 2017, 05:36:16 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Isn't Josh Mandel Jewish? Yes. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: krazen1211 on July 20, 2017, 05:39:02 PM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls. Please, Josh is doing exactly what caused him to lose in 2012: saying idiotic things that eventually caused his own party to abandon him. That isn't even true. He lost because of Romney blowing the election and losing Ohio. Dumping an incumbent Senator is extremely tough when the top of the ticket loses. Sherrod Brown is lucky he wasn't up in 2016, or 2014 for that matter. Of course, in the 2012 cycle, Brown started up 10-15 in the polls! Not so this year. The Democrat party lost 400,000 votes after the 2012 cycle. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on July 20, 2017, 05:47:41 PM Mandel is getting thrashed on Twitter right now for his retweet of Cernovich.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: RogueBeaver on July 20, 2017, 06:23:03 PM Mandel's doubling down. (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/josh-mandel-retweets-far-right-pizzagate-conspiracy-theorist)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 20, 2017, 06:27:34 PM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls. Please, Josh is doing exactly what caused him to lose in 2012: saying idiotic things that eventually caused his own party to abandon him. Republicans on the forum don't seem to get how unpopular Mandel really is. Gibbons, who's running in the primary against Josh, notably raised $690k last quarter (http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2017/07/17/Mike-Gibbons-raises-impressive-700K-for-US-Senate-nomination-campaign.html) despite only having been a candidate for six weeks. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: windjammer on July 20, 2017, 06:30:34 PM Mandel has always been totally crazy. Am I the only one not surprised?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: I’m not Stu on July 20, 2017, 06:32:19 PM Would Brown be favored if Mandel isn't the GOP nominee?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 20, 2017, 06:39:11 PM Would Brown be favored if Mandel isn't the GOP nominee? Probably, since all the heavy-hitters are running for Governor. Tiberi might be formidable if he got to the general, but he likely couldn't make it there given the way the OHGOP has been behaving lately. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: I’m not Stu on July 20, 2017, 06:56:09 PM Tiberi won't run.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on July 20, 2017, 06:58:23 PM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls. Please, Josh is doing exactly what caused him to lose in 2012: saying idiotic things that eventually caused his own party to abandon him. Republicans on the forum don't seem to get how unpopular Mandel really is. Gibbons, who's running in the primary against Josh, notably raised $690k last quarter (http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2017/07/17/Mike-Gibbons-raises-impressive-700K-for-US-Senate-nomination-campaign.html) despite only having been a candidate for six weeks. I really hope Gibbons pulls off a "McGinty" by surging last minute and preventing a rematch. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 20, 2017, 07:16:59 PM Tiberi won't run. That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: I’m not Stu on July 20, 2017, 07:55:55 PM Tiberi won't run. That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Rjjr77 on July 20, 2017, 08:03:51 PM Would Brown be favored if Mandel isn't the GOP nominee? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Chief Justice Keef on July 20, 2017, 08:43:28 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Mandel has gorilla mindset. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: I’m not Stu on July 20, 2017, 08:49:22 PM What is Republican Michael Gibbons like? Is he similar to Mandel?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on July 20, 2017, 09:19:25 PM This Mandel tweet speaks for itself. (https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/888055970781331456) Mandel has gorilla mindset. I've always admired his posture tbh. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 20, 2017, 09:23:04 PM Tiberi won't run. That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side. Because all the heavy hitters are running for Governor, and no lightweight is going to take down the most successful Ohio Democrat in the past 30 years. And Republicans know it. What is Republican Michael Gibbons like? Is he similar to Mandel? Not at all. He's an independently wealthy banker/businessman from Cleveland. No real issues stance, except "pro-job growth." Looks "fiscally conservative, socially moderate." Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: I’m not Stu on July 20, 2017, 11:09:34 PM Tiberi won't run. That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side. Because all the heavy hitters are running for Governor, and no lightweight is going to take down the most successful Ohio Democrat in the past 30 years. And Republicans know it. What is Republican Michael Gibbons like? Is he similar to Mandel? Not at all. He's an independently wealthy banker/businessman from Cleveland. No real issues stance, except "pro-job growth." Looks "fiscally conservative, socially moderate." Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: Badger on July 21, 2017, 08:22:15 AM The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls. The ADL is anti-Semitic? You aren't even trying anymore. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Brown Breaking Bank Post by: TheSaint250 on July 21, 2017, 08:26:48 AM Tiberi won't run. That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side. Because all the heavy hitters are running for Governor, and no lightweight is going to take down the most successful Ohio Democrat in the past 30 years. And Republicans know it. What is Republican Michael Gibbons like? Is he similar to Mandel? Not at all. He's an independently wealthy banker/businessman from Cleveland. No real issues stance, except "pro-job growth." Looks "fiscally conservative, socially moderate." Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 25, 2017, 11:28:00 AM Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1jLoMjRG4U) attacking ... Senate Republicans?
It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: Rjjr77 on July 26, 2017, 09:14:14 AM Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1jLoMjRG4U) attacking ... Senate Republicans? It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 26, 2017, 07:26:17 PM Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1jLoMjRG4U) attacking ... Senate Republicans? It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: Rjjr77 on July 26, 2017, 11:12:31 PM Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1jLoMjRG4U) attacking ... Senate Republicans? It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 27, 2017, 03:46:30 AM Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1jLoMjRG4U) attacking ... Senate Republicans? It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for. Sure, but he hasn't really contrasted himself with Mandel, either. I'm, rather obviously, not a Republican operative, and for good reason, but I'd either go after Mandel hard, establish credibility -- which admittedly, I think Gibbons did okay -- or position the candidate as the guy to win the general. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Gaining Ground Post by: mcmikk on August 01, 2017, 10:25:53 AM At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.
Polls taken around the beginning of July (http://www.sanduskyregister.com/story/201707280026) show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50. Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Gaining Ground Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 01, 2017, 10:27:32 AM At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble. Polls taken around the beginning of July (http://www.sanduskyregister.com/story/201707280026) show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50. Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good. Junk. There has been no credible poll of this race yet. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: _ on August 01, 2017, 10:28:57 AM At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble. Polls taken around the beginning of July (http://www.sanduskyregister.com/story/201707280026) show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50. Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good. I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch. Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 01, 2017, 11:13:55 AM At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble. Polls taken around the beginning of July (http://www.sanduskyregister.com/story/201707280026) show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50. Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good. I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch. Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup. Right now this race is solidly lean D. ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN). One cycle does not a permanent realignment make. The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best. We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances. And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two). Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: windjammer on August 01, 2017, 11:16:28 AM At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble. Polls taken around the beginning of July (http://www.sanduskyregister.com/story/201707280026) show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50. Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good. I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch. Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup. Right now this race is solidly lean D. ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN). One cycle does not a permanent realignment make. The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best. We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances. And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two). Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 01, 2017, 11:17:03 AM At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble. Polls taken around the beginning of July (http://www.sanduskyregister.com/story/201707280026) show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50. Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good. I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch. Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup. Right now this race is solidly lean D. ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN). One cycle does not a permanent realignment make. The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best. We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances. And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two). Not a credible one :P Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 03, 2017, 11:09:30 AM Some obvious bias in this piece (http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/08/for_josh_mandel_no_gutter_is_t.html), but I really don't think people get how unpopular Josh Mandel is, even with Republicans. He may well be the least popular politician in the state.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: Rjjr77 on August 03, 2017, 01:11:24 PM Some obvious bias in this piece (http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/08/for_josh_mandel_no_gutter_is_t.html), but I really don't think people get how unpopular Josh Mandel is, even with Republicans. He may well be the least popular politician in the state. I don't think posting Larkin columns should be allowed on here, the guys a polemic. Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: publicunofficial on August 03, 2017, 01:32:11 PM When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend. I imagine he'll be a lot like that.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: PragmaticPopulist on August 03, 2017, 01:58:06 PM When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend. I imagine he'll be a lot like that. Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once. From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton. Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 03, 2017, 02:29:21 PM When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend. I imagine he'll be a lot like that. Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once. From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton. He's sooooooooooo much worse than that, take it from an Ohioan :P Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: TJ in Oregon on August 03, 2017, 11:06:06 PM *shrug*
The question is whether or not they dislike his opponents in each round worse. Also, Larkin's long surpassed his quota of WORST CANDIDATE EVER!!!!!! editorials. Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 04, 2017, 09:43:26 AM *shrug* The question is whether or not they dislike his opponents in each round worse. Also, Larkin's long surpassed his quota of WORST CANDIDATE EVER!!!!!! editorials. Even in 2012, I knew more than a few folks who voted straight-ticket Republican...except in the Senate race where they voted for Brown instead of Mandel (obviously this is anecdotal, but still). Even folks who disagree with him generally consider him a decent guy (aside from your fire-breathing partisans and whacktivists). Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Staffs Up Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 04, 2017, 10:52:17 AM The immediate past chair of the Richland County GOP voted for Brown.
ION: Gibbons is hiring staff tied to Kasich (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170803/gibbons-adds-two-more-staffers-with-kasich-ties-to-campaign-team). Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Staffs Up Post by: Heisenberg on August 04, 2017, 11:41:18 AM I'm feeling really terrible about this race now. I wish Mandel would drop out and Renacci (whose Governor bid isn't going anywhere) switches to this one.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Staffs Up Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 04, 2017, 03:34:02 PM Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Staffs Up Post by: Rjjr77 on August 04, 2017, 03:38:19 PM Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse. Nah mandel would beat Renacci, he's too unknown in the state. Taylor could give him a run, don't know if it would knock him out. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Staffs Up Post by: Heisenberg on August 04, 2017, 05:02:29 PM Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse. Title: Re: OH-SEN: No One Likes Josh Mandel Post by: Badger on August 05, 2017, 12:07:42 AM When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend. I imagine he'll be a lot like that. Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once. From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton. He's sooooooooooo much worse than that, take it from an Ohioan :P Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons on the Air Post by: Gustaf on August 06, 2017, 12:53:58 PM Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1jLoMjRG4U) attacking ... Senate Republicans? It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for. "This video is unlisted. Be considerate and think twice before sharing." Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Staffs Up Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 06, 2017, 02:15:17 PM Mandel is so awful that the Columbus Dispatch endorsed Sherrod Brown in 2012 (and not one of those reluctant half-endorsements either IIRC).
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 10, 2017, 02:17:57 PM Take the source with a grain of salt. (https://3rdrailpolitics.com/article/602)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: Brittain33 on August 14, 2017, 10:06:36 AM Thread unlocked.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: Rjjr77 on August 14, 2017, 09:54:14 PM Take the source with a grain of salt. (https://3rdrailpolitics.com/article/602) I dont think hes running at all Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 14, 2017, 11:29:54 PM Take the source with a grain of salt. (https://3rdrailpolitics.com/article/602) I dont think hes running at all I hope not, but I assume he'll run for something eventually. And it would likely have to be something statewide since he moved back to Columbus and not Middletown. It would also have to be sooner rather than later because the sheen of Hilbilly Eligy will wear off. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: Rjjr77 on August 15, 2017, 10:10:16 AM Take the source with a grain of salt. (https://3rdrailpolitics.com/article/602) I dont think hes running at all I hope not, but I assume he'll run for something eventually. And it would likely have to be something statewide since he moved back to Columbus and not Middletown. It would also have to be sooner rather than later because the sheen of Hilbilly Eligy will wear off. I have been straight up told he isnt running this cycle, i'll put it that way. now if someone LGS him maybe Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 15, 2017, 10:35:23 AM I doubt Vance winds up as anyone's LG. Husted, DeWine, and Renacci should all be bending over backward to put a woman on the ticket. He might make sense for Taylor, but she should drop out. Still, Ohio rarely elects Senators to more than two terms -- though I think Brown will make it to a third -- so Vance could run for damn near anything in 2022, 2024, or 2026.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 23, 2017, 07:45:14 AM Gibbons out with a new ad where he aligns himself with Trump (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4vmffYK3c0).
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Vance Considering? Post by: henster on August 23, 2017, 08:17:45 PM Gibbons out with a new ad where he aligns himself with Trump (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4vmffYK3c0). The first 10 seconds of the ad sure don't paint a picture of America becoming 'Great Again'. NK threatening to nuke USA, ISIS attacks, OCare still law, opioid crisis still ongoing. Odd so many Rs are still running on how bad things are these days. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 29, 2017, 07:30:46 PM Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2017-08-29/gops-josh-mandel-targets-act-barring-church-politicking) which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: TheSaint250 on August 29, 2017, 08:38:21 PM Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2017-08-29/gops-josh-mandel-targets-act-barring-church-politicking) which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: Rjjr77 on August 30, 2017, 09:21:49 AM Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2017-08-29/gops-josh-mandel-targets-act-barring-church-politicking) which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates I mean I'm not necessarily against this in any way, churches should have the same right to political activities unions have. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 30, 2017, 09:25:24 AM Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2017-08-29/gops-josh-mandel-targets-act-barring-church-politicking) which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates I mean I'm not necessarily against this in any way, churches should have the same right to political activities unions have. I definitely disagree, the most political a church should get is the sermon. But honestly, the 501(c)3 bit is much worse. Mandel just wants to cloak himself in as much dark money as possible. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: Rjjr77 on August 30, 2017, 09:35:42 AM Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2017-08-29/gops-josh-mandel-targets-act-barring-church-politicking) which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates I mean I'm not necessarily against this in any way, churches should have the same right to political activities unions have. I definitely disagree, the most political a church should get is the sermon. But honestly, the 501(c)3 bit is much worse. Mandel just wants to cloak himself in as much dark money as possible. you could make that argument that tons of non-profits shouldn't be able to get political, its kind of silly that a church cant but a union can, neither of which pay taxes. And in every state church membership is voluntary. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 30, 2017, 08:43:57 PM Mandel has put together a "faith team" and is seeking to overturn the 1954 Johnson Amendment (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2017-08-29/gops-josh-mandel-targets-act-barring-church-politicking) which bans religious organizations and charitable groups from openly supporting candidates I mean I'm not necessarily against this in any way, churches should have the same right to political activities unions have. I definitely disagree, the most political a church should get is the sermon. But honestly, the 501(c)3 bit is much worse. Mandel just wants to cloak himself in as much dark money as possible. you could make that argument that tons of non-profits shouldn't be able to get political, its kind of silly that a church cant but a union can, neither of which pay taxes. And in every state church membership is voluntary. I personally take a very strict stance on the separation of church and state. And unions are inherently political. I also strongly believe we need to get money out of this politics, which has nothing to do with me being some Godless lefty. I'm sure churches helmed by people like Otis Moss III and William Barber II could raise as much money as, if not more than, those churches helmed by people like Chris Olsteen and Jerry Falwell Jr. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on August 30, 2017, 11:32:50 PM Mandel seems to be doing all he can to lose this race.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 31, 2017, 12:49:32 AM Johnson Amendment Schumson Amendment. Plenty of churches endorsed Trump last year (Or at least posted stuff like Ray Comfort's "please don't vote for abortion" video on social media, or made statements that could be viewed as anti-Clinton) and nothing ever happened to them.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Another Mandel Opponent Post by: MarkD on September 02, 2017, 06:58:27 PM Melissa Ackison, a businesswoman, is joining the Republican primary race.
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/09/another_candidate_to_challenge.html (http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/09/another_candidate_to_challenge.html) She will formally announce her campaign Monday. (Can somebody change the title of this thread to something more general?) Title: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: BushKerry04 on September 05, 2017, 09:36:13 PM My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: I’m not Stu on September 05, 2017, 09:40:15 PM Mandel is no establishment Republican like Kasich or DeWine.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: NewYorkExpress on September 05, 2017, 09:41:13 PM Brown pulls off a squeaker. I think National Republicans would probably prefer DeWine or Taylor run here (or even Kasich).
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Mr. Smith on September 05, 2017, 09:43:48 PM Barring the DSCC pulling another Sestak '10, or taking for granted the polls like what happened to Feingold, should go to Brown.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: krazen1211 on September 05, 2017, 10:02:29 PM The Dem party lost 400k votes in Ohio in the 2016 election. Rats are fleeing the sinking ship.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Xing on September 05, 2017, 10:07:16 PM Brown is somewhat moderate compared to Mandel. Anyway, my guess is Brown by a somewhat narrow margin. I don't think he's as vulnerable as most people here seem to think (though obviously he could lose)
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Beet on September 05, 2017, 10:11:00 PM I'm not ready to write off Brown, but it's going to be tough. In 2012 he had Obama winning at the top of the ticket, and politically, that was eons ago. The Democrats haven't won a statewide election in Ohio since.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 05, 2017, 10:28:50 PM I tend to agree with Krazen and Beet on this, very concerning for democrats. Lean D at best, Lean R at worst. I tend to think this is tilt D for now, just because Mandel sucks, and Brown is an OK fit for Ohio. If it was literally any other Republican besides Mandel, I would not be favoring Brown at all. If things go according to plan, and Mandel wins the nomination, I think Brown edges him out, possibly even with a plurality. Sadly I think that Mandel will do better, and Brown will do worse, not because Mandel is some demigod, and Brown sucks, it's just what is happening to Ohio now. Gun to my head now, probably Brown 49-47.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on September 05, 2017, 10:37:38 PM Seems like I'm more bullish on this race (for Brown) than most Democrats. My guess is that it's close for a while but Brown starts to pull away and ends up winning mid-upper single digits, similar to his 2012 margin.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Figueira on September 05, 2017, 10:38:31 PM I think the national environment will push Brown over the line. I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: I’m not Stu on September 05, 2017, 10:54:25 PM I think the national environment will push Brown over the line. I could be wrong. Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Zioneer on September 06, 2017, 01:47:27 AM Brown is favored, he's an excellent fit for the state and he's already beaten Mandel once.
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: McGovernForPrez on September 06, 2017, 11:07:41 AM My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties. Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 06, 2017, 08:53:29 PM My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties. Nothing comes easy in Ohio anymore for us, we gotta WORK to keep this seat. Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 06, 2017, 09:22:46 PM 50-48 Josh mandel but brown can win but since Ohio trended R like crazy and since he's the only dem in Ohio I would say the same in Florida as well but 50-47.5 Nelson
Title: Re: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race? Post by: McGovernForPrez on September 06, 2017, 09:32:18 PM My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties. Nothing comes easy in Ohio anymore for us, we gotta WORK to keep this seat. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel Wants Church Cash Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 06, 2017, 09:51:31 PM Solid Lean D
Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: BuckeyeNut on September 07, 2017, 04:54:33 AM What Malcolm X said.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 07, 2017, 07:53:05 AM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans
Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Meatball Ron on September 07, 2017, 11:23:16 AM Good Sabato article on the history of Senate rematches. It doesn't have a ton of predictive value given the small sample size and other quirks, but still an interesting read and reaffirms that Brown probably has the edge, at least for now: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-sequels-the-history-of-upper-chamber-rematches/
Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: BuckeyeNut on September 07, 2017, 12:24:27 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: _ on September 07, 2017, 01:57:36 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: UncleSam on September 07, 2017, 02:56:04 PM Can someone explain the 'Brown is a good fit for his state' meme to me?
Like seriously Brown is one of the more liberal senators in the caucus while coming from one of the more conservative states represented there. You can say he's a great campaigner, has unique appeal, etc etc but good fit for his state I have a hard time buying. Mandel's campaign has stagnated in recent months and goes to show why declaring super early in a cycle can be a double edged sword. While I think Mandel will be a lot tougher than most Dems here probably think in their hearts (given the overwhelming lead for Brown in the poll), I do think Brown may be the slightest of favorites right now. I think Mandel's floor is higher than Brown's, however. I doubt Mandel could possibly do worse than he did in 2012 given how hard Ohio has swung right and how much infrastructure he has already put in place there. Mandel seems a lot to Ohio like Hillary was to the country last year: massive, well-organized campaign with a vaguely dislikable figure leading it. That being said Hillary won the popular vote in spite of her likability issues so it's an open question whether this analogy bodes ill for Mandel or for Brown (or neither?) as of yet. Of course it is not a perfect analogy by any means either haha I think the range of outcomes goes from Brown + 5 to Mandel + 8, with more probability weight towards the Brown end of that range. I could easily see Mandel turning out Trump voters in Ohio though, Dems have become anathema to small town Midwesterners in recent years and Trump's tweets don't change that. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 07, 2017, 03:50:37 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. I think Dewines had enough of a break where he makes it a tough challenge for Brown, Taylor I think beats brown, she cant raise funds in a crowded primary but if shes it I think she can knock off sherrod. Kasich couldnt win the primary. Portman would slaughter Brown and drink from his skull on election night Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 07, 2017, 03:53:13 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 07, 2017, 03:58:03 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012? You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right? This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Blackacre on September 07, 2017, 04:03:44 PM Can someone explain the 'Brown is a good fit for his state' meme to me? Like seriously Brown is one of the more liberal senators in the caucus while coming from one of the more conservative states represented there. You can say he's a great campaigner, has unique appeal, etc etc but good fit for his state I have a hard time buying. Mandel's campaign has stagnated in recent months and goes to show why declaring super early in a cycle can be a double edged sword. While I think Mandel will be a lot tougher than most Dems here probably think in their hearts (given the overwhelming lead for Brown in the poll), I do think Brown may be the slightest of favorites right now. I think Mandel's floor is higher than Brown's, however. I doubt Mandel could possibly do worse than he did in 2012 given how hard Ohio has swung right and how much infrastructure he has already put in place there. Mandel seems a lot to Ohio like Hillary was to the country last year: massive, well-organized campaign with a vaguely dislikable figure leading it. That being said Hillary won the popular vote in spite of her likability issues so it's an open question whether this analogy bodes ill for Mandel or for Brown (or neither?) as of yet. Of course it is not a perfect analogy by any means either haha I think the range of outcomes goes from Brown + 5 to Mandel + 8, with more probability weight towards the Brown end of that range. I could easily see Mandel turning out Trump voters in Ohio though, Dems have become anathema to small town Midwesterners in recent years and Trump's tweets don't change that. Basically, Brown plays well with a lot of the labor WWC types who pushed the state to Trump. He's also anti-free trade, which contributed to trump's appeal. And he has a record of listening to people. And he's personable. He's a liberal, but he's not a HRC-type. He's more Bidenesque. The Obama-Trump voters who delivered it to the President won't vote en mass for Mandel. I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012? You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign, and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right? This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate. Yeah, if the supposed victim isn't on your side when you're making the allegations, and is herself denying that it happened, the allegations won't carry much weight. Especially against Trump. I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. I think Dewines had enough of a break where he makes it a tough challenge for Brown, Taylor I think beats brown, she cant raise funds in a crowded primary but if shes it I think she can knock off sherrod. Kasich couldnt win the primary. Portman would slaughter Brown and drink from his skull on election night I'm not even 100% sure I agree about that, (Brown >>>>>>>>>>>> Strickland) but regardless IDK if it's even possible for a sitting Senator to run for a Senate seat that they don't already hold. Regardless, won't happen. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 07, 2017, 08:46:34 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012? You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right? This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 08, 2017, 10:48:27 AM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012? You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right? This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate. And she's said repeatedly that it never happened and that her claims were words said in anger during a divorce. She's consistently said that ever since the first time an amoral Republican tried to make an issue of it back when Brown was running for the House. Then as now, pretty much everyone roundly condemned this exceptionally disgusting smear attempt. Mandel has falsely accused Brown of beating his current wife as well, offering such damning evidence as "Hey, I heard you beat beat your wife" and "You can probably read about that all over the internet" (yes, those are direct quotes from Mandel). I get that you may really not like Brown, but spreading blatantly false allegations of domestic abuse is about as low as it gets. Even for a political smear campaign, that's incredibly sleezy and says a lot about those who are willing to sink to such depths. Pretty disgusting, to say the least. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: BuckeyeNut on September 08, 2017, 01:20:55 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 08, 2017, 03:38:40 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Kingpoleon on September 08, 2017, 03:41:31 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. That's a similar situation to Trump's alleged sexual assault of his wife, right? Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 08, 2017, 03:47:08 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Roblox on September 08, 2017, 03:50:17 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Besides, little Josh attempted to bring the issue up in 2012 and it totally failed, with Brown's ex wife even coming out and endorsing brown. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: BuckeyeNut on September 16, 2017, 01:04:23 AM Perennial candidate, Don Elijah Eckhart, has entered the Republican primary, JD Vance has officially ruled out a run after much deliberation, and Michael Gibbons wrote an op-ed slamming Mandel as unelectable.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 18, 2017, 09:48:25 AM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: McGovernForPrez on September 18, 2017, 11:35:36 AM Josh Mandel doesn't look old enough to be a U.S. Senator. He's got a mean baby face.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: UncleSam on September 18, 2017, 11:41:34 AM Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic.
Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain. None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again. In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: Gustaf on September 18, 2017, 12:29:32 PM Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic. Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain. None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again. In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race. Not that I'm particularly invested, but I think throwing out the sentence "The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run" without any additional explanation or context is kind of slanderous given the situation. I can understand why people would react to that. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: Rjjr77 on September 18, 2017, 01:52:25 PM Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic. Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain. None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again. In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race. Not that I'm particularly invested, but I think throwing out the sentence "The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run" without any additional explanation or context is kind of slanderous given the situation. I can understand why people would react to that. It's not in anyway slanderous, nor is it outrageous for me to mention in such a casual way. It has been used routinely in campaigns against Brown with varying levels of success, it is a pretty open and public topic, and it is a legitimate allegation made against him by his ex-wife. For me to think that it could sink the presidential aspirations of a 64 year old white male senator from the midwest, in what I expect to be a crowded (but top heavy) field is not in anyway unreasonable. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: Gustaf on September 19, 2017, 03:32:33 AM Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic. Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain. None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again. In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race. Not that I'm particularly invested, but I think throwing out the sentence "The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run" without any additional explanation or context is kind of slanderous given the situation. I can understand why people would react to that. It's not in anyway slanderous, nor is it outrageous for me to mention in such a casual way. It has been used routinely in campaigns against Brown with varying levels of success, it is a pretty open and public topic, and it is a legitimate allegation made against him by his ex-wife. For me to think that it could sink the presidential aspirations of a 64 year old white male senator from the midwest, in what I expect to be a crowded (but top heavy) field is not in anyway unreasonable. Right, but I think the point is rather that you could just as well have said something like "even though the allegations have been withdrawn and are denied by the supposed victim, they could still hurt him" in order to make that point. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: BuckeyeNut on September 19, 2017, 09:16:07 AM This also isn't a thread to discuss any presidential aspirations Senator Brown may or may not have.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Badger on September 19, 2017, 05:23:17 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. The. Allegations. Are. False. As. Claimed. By. The. Accuser. Herself. So. Stop. Trolling. And. Shut. Up. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 19, 2017, 05:36:30 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence. If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence. That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it. Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth. And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel). Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 19, 2017, 09:47:52 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. The. Allegations. Are. False. As. Claimed. By. The. Accuser. Herself. So. Stop. Trolling. And. Shut. Up. Its not trolling, its a legitimate point, and I'll absolutely stand by that statement and its asinine to get attacked personally over a legit point Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 19, 2017, 10:00:38 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence. If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence. That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it. Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth. And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel). Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything. Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are. Lets look at the facts. This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies) I, nor mandel, didn't make it up. You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Badger on September 19, 2017, 10:29:44 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence. If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence. That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it. Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth. And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel). Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything. Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are. Lets look at the facts. This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies) I, nor mandel, didn't make it up. You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president. The fact that you have done little more than squawk incessantly like a parrot over and over that it's a legit point, Ask! Little troll wants a cracker it's a legit point, makes your point no more Salient than when you started about 30 posts ago. Seriously, either put up with some actual facts Beyond well maybe it happened because it was once accused even though people actually on this forum have spoken with the people involved and to corroborate their public denials, then STFU while the grown-ups talk. Seriously. This isn't about not wanting here alternative views. This is about wanting to hear an actual coherent point rather than some rain man like repetition of it's a legit point for a full freaking page of the Forum now. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 21, 2017, 09:42:17 PM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence. If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence. That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it. Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth. And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel). Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything. Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are. Lets look at the facts. This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies) I, nor mandel, didn't make it up. You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president. The fact that you have done little more than squawk incessantly like a parrot over and over that it's a legit point, Ask! Little troll wants a cracker it's a legit point, makes your point no more Salient than when you started about 30 posts ago. Seriously, either put up with some actual facts Beyond well maybe it happened because it was once accused even though people actually on this forum have spoken with the people involved and to corroborate their public denials, then STFU while the grown-ups talk. Seriously. This isn't about not wanting here alternative views. This is about wanting to hear an actual coherent point rather than some rain man like repetition of it's a legit point for a full freaking page of the Forum now. Who on this forum has actually spoken to the accusers specifically? you? JDB? no. they've issued soft denials in the past publicly and said they've reconciled, but no one ever said "I lied in my court documents about Sherrod Brown attacking me" This has been discussed to death, Sherrod brown has been accused of domestic violence by his ex wife, his ex wife later said "it was a heated divorce and things get said." Sherrod Brown was later alleged to have physically assaulted his ex-wife's husband (back when he was SOS i want to say) this too was not specifically recanted by the victim, however the victim chose not to press charges. I am happy he has reconciled his differences with his ex-wife and her family, but it doesn't mean the allegations just disappear from being relevant to a discussion about a possible presidential run. Yes, here in Ohio, they've been used (and not used) in campaigns against Sherrod Brown, but to the voters in the other 49 states they've never been heard before. Something like that is a potential problem when running a presidential campaign. And mentioning this problem doesnt make me a troll, a liar, a fabricator, or disgusting in anyway. All I'm doing is bringing up actual possible roadblocks to a presidential run by Sherrod Brown, when that was discussed in this thread. I compare it to George Bush's "draft dodging" allegations which were talked to death in 1994, doesn't mean they werent legitimate roadblocks for his run in 2000 Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 22, 2017, 07:12:17 AM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence. If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence. That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it. Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth. And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel). Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything. Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are. Lets look at the facts. This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies) I, nor mandel, didn't make it up. You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president. The fact that you have done little more than squawk incessantly like a parrot over and over that it's a legit point, Ask! Little troll wants a cracker it's a legit point, makes your point no more Salient than when you started about 30 posts ago. Seriously, either put up with some actual facts Beyond well maybe it happened because it was once accused even though people actually on this forum have spoken with the people involved and to corroborate their public denials, then STFU while the grown-ups talk. Seriously. This isn't about not wanting here alternative views. This is about wanting to hear an actual coherent point rather than some rain man like repetition of it's a legit point for a full freaking page of the Forum now. Who on this forum has actually spoken to the accusers specifically? you? JDB? no. they've issued soft denials in the past publicly and said they've reconciled, but no one ever said "I lied in my court documents about Sherrod Brown attacking me" This has been discussed to death, Sherrod brown has been accused of domestic violence by his ex wife, his ex wife later said "it was a heated divorce and things get said." Sherrod Brown was later alleged to have physically assaulted his ex-wife's husband (back when he was SOS i want to say) this too was not specifically recanted by the victim, however the victim chose not to press charges. I am happy he has reconciled his differences with his ex-wife and her family, but it doesn't mean the allegations just disappear from being relevant to a discussion about a possible presidential run. Yes, here in Ohio, they've been used (and not used) in campaigns against Sherrod Brown, but to the voters in the other 49 states they've never been heard before. Something like that is a potential problem when running a presidential campaign. And mentioning this problem doesnt make me a troll, a liar, a fabricator, or disgusting in anyway. All I'm doing is bringing up actual possible roadblocks to a presidential run by Sherrod Brown, when that was discussed in this thread. I compare it to George Bush's "draft dodging" allegations which were talked to death in 1994, doesn't mean they werent legitimate roadblocks for his run in 2000 Actually, all the allegations were made by the ex-wife and have since repeatedly been specifically denied by her in clear and uncertain terms, but thanks for playing :) Oh and only one candidate besides Mandel has tried to use this nonsense and that sleezebag was widely criticized for it too. Anyway, with something like blatantly false allegations of domestic abuse, you kinda do have a duty to provide context when bringing it up. And this isn't like the Bush draft-dodging allegations; it's more like the whisper campaign in 2000 alleging that McCain's adopted daughter was really a black love child. Title: Re: OH-SEN: 3 Way GOP Primary Post by: Rjjr77 on September 22, 2017, 07:24:01 AM I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul. Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril. Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run. The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake. But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there. What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself. Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not. Look no, you don't get to talk to me this way. you can't say something is made up. These allegations, whether or true or not were made. Thats a fact. They would absolutely matter in a presidential race. I get it, its tough out there for Ohio D's and Sherrod is your star, but you can't say Mandel made these allegations up or that they were baseless. Theres literally articles about them. Look, I've done quite a bit of work with actual victims of domestic violence. If you don't like the way I was talking to you then maybe you should stop trying to smear people you disagree with by peddling false allegations of domestic violence. That's about as low as it gets and if you keep doing it then I'm gonna keep calling you out on it. Among other things, incredibly disrespectful to the actual victims of domestic violence who spend their days trapped in a living Hell on earth. And like Gustaf said, if you were really just mentioning this with no ulterior motive, you'd have provided the context (but of course, that would've made it obvious that this was a baseless smear campaign by Mandel). Cool you've worked for Domestic violence victims, i commend you for that, but nothing you've said is right here. It isn't a smear, its a legitimate point. Why should I have to provide context? the context is everywhere? no one provides deep context on everything. Heres the problem with you, Sherrods your god, great, I think hes going to win, I've said it over, but to claim this is made up by mandel or some smear by me is ridiculous. You clearly aren't as smart as you think you are. Lets look at the facts. This claim was made (not once but twice in legal documents about browns alleged violent tendencies) I, nor mandel, didn't make it up. You can argue over WHETHER it should be used, sure, but to claim it is a fabrication is just outrageous, and shows a complete inability to look at anything objectively. Heck, I'm not the first person to bring it up on Atlas as its been mentioned in the past more than once. It is not my duty to sit there and talk to death and provide context to every single negative about every single candidate, nor is it your duty to personally levy attacks on something that IS a legitimate issue were he to run for president. The fact that you have done little more than squawk incessantly like a parrot over and over that it's a legit point, Ask! Little troll wants a cracker it's a legit point, makes your point no more Salient than when you started about 30 posts ago. Seriously, either put up with some actual facts Beyond well maybe it happened because it was once accused even though people actually on this forum have spoken with the people involved and to corroborate their public denials, then STFU while the grown-ups talk. Seriously. This isn't about not wanting here alternative views. This is about wanting to hear an actual coherent point rather than some rain man like repetition of it's a legit point for a full freaking page of the Forum now. Who on this forum has actually spoken to the accusers specifically? you? JDB? no. they've issued soft denials in the past publicly and said they've reconciled, but no one ever said "I lied in my court documents about Sherrod Brown attacking me" This has been discussed to death, Sherrod brown has been accused of domestic violence by his ex wife, his ex wife later said "it was a heated divorce and things get said." Sherrod Brown was later alleged to have physically assaulted his ex-wife's husband (back when he was SOS i want to say) this too was not specifically recanted by the victim, however the victim chose not to press charges. I am happy he has reconciled his differences with his ex-wife and her family, but it doesn't mean the allegations just disappear from being relevant to a discussion about a possible presidential run. Yes, here in Ohio, they've been used (and not used) in campaigns against Sherrod Brown, but to the voters in the other 49 states they've never been heard before. Something like that is a potential problem when running a presidential campaign. And mentioning this problem doesnt make me a troll, a liar, a fabricator, or disgusting in anyway. All I'm doing is bringing up actual possible roadblocks to a presidential run by Sherrod Brown, when that was discussed in this thread. I compare it to George Bush's "draft dodging" allegations which were talked to death in 1994, doesn't mean they werent legitimate roadblocks for his run in 2000 Actually, all the allegations were made by the ex-wife and have since repeatedly been specifically denied by her in clear and uncertain terms, but thanks for playing :) Oh and only one candidate besides Mandel has tried to use this nonsense and that sleezebag was widely criticized for it too. Anyway, with something like blatantly false allegations of domestic abuse, you kinda do have a duty to provide context when bringing it up. And this isn't like the Bush draft-dodging allegations; it's more like the whisper campaign in 2000 alleging that McCain's adopted daughter was really a black love child. Actually no they havent been "clearly denied by her" she has parsed her words pretty professionally about it, but shes never said I lied about this, or the claims I've made were 100% false. In fact articles about it have pointed out that they dont discuss this very openly. Things like the accusations are overstated, or divorce is difficult are not open denials... Mandel used it. His 1992 opponent used it it was brought up by the media in his SOS reelection against Taft, which he lost. I'd say its nothing like the McCain black child campaign because theres no basis for those allegations, thats a made up rumor, this, like the bush draft dodging stuff, had some actual proof behind it. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: RogueBeaver on October 02, 2017, 11:07:32 AM Mandel's getting endorsed by Posobiec and Thernovich. (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/pro-trump-media-super-pac/541686/)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 02, 2017, 12:00:49 PM Mandel's getting endorsed by Posobiec and Thernovich. (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/pro-trump-media-super-pac/541686/) Seen here: Two Nazis endorsing their pet rat's Senate campaign. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 09, 2017, 03:33:23 PM Mandel internal poll:
Quote Q6: Possible candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate are Josh Mandel, Mike Gibbons, Melissa Ackison and Don Eckhart. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Josh Mandel: 50% Mike Gibbons: 5% Melissa Ackison: 5% Don Eckhart: 2% Undecided: 38% Link. (https://joshmandel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/OH-US-SENATE-GOP-PRIMARY-SURVEY-092717.pdf) Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: BuckeyeNut on October 10, 2017, 01:10:57 AM Mandel internal poll: Quote Q6: Possible candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate are Josh Mandel, Mike Gibbons, Melissa Ackison and Don Eckhart. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Josh Mandel: 50% Mike Gibbons: 5% Melissa Ackison: 5% Don Eckhart: 2% Undecided: 38% Link. (https://joshmandel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/OH-US-SENATE-GOP-PRIMARY-SURVEY-092717.pdf) I don't know what to make of that, but Eckhart and Ackison are jokes. Gibbsons could crack 10%, if he gets lucky. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: BuckeyeNut on October 10, 2017, 12:33:29 PM Brown has raised another $2.6 mil, bringing his total CoH to $8.3 mil. Mandel hasn't released his latest quarterly filing yet, but had $3.35 mil CoH as of his last filing.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: rpryor03 on October 10, 2017, 09:58:15 PM I hate all of these GOP candidates.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: Kantakouzenos on November 10, 2017, 01:11:14 AM Has there been one poll worthwhile poll of the general race yet?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: BuckeyeNut on November 10, 2017, 08:40:31 AM Has there been one poll worthwhile poll of the general race yet? Nope. The race has been fairly quiet the past month or so. Guess both Dems and the GOP were focusing on the local elections. Title: Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 Post by: Kantakouzenos on November 11, 2017, 05:53:09 PM Has there been one poll worthwhile poll of the general race yet? Nope. The race has been fairly quiet the past month or so. Guess both Dems and the GOP were focusing on the local elections. That would make sense. Hopefully there can be some good public polls of all the upcoming senate races. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 07, 2017, 02:49:22 PM The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171206/newcomer-gibbons-upsets-mandel-for-franklin-county-gop-nod) Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 07, 2017, 03:22:51 PM The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171206/newcomer-gibbons-upsets-mandel-for-franklin-county-gop-nod) Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries. LOL Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: Rjjr77 on December 08, 2017, 01:02:21 AM The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171206/newcomer-gibbons-upsets-mandel-for-franklin-county-gop-nod) Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries. I dont think it shows him gaining momentum, it just confirms what many suspect, that he's been a Kasich plant this whole time. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 08, 2017, 01:03:54 AM The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171206/newcomer-gibbons-upsets-mandel-for-franklin-county-gop-nod) Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries. I dont think it shows him gaining momentum, it just confirms what many suspect, that he's been a Kasich plant this whole time. I think it just further demonstrates how much everyone hates Mandel :P Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 08, 2017, 08:47:46 AM The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171206/newcomer-gibbons-upsets-mandel-for-franklin-county-gop-nod) Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries. I dont think it shows him gaining momentum, it just confirms what many suspect, that he's been a Kasich plant this whole time. I think it just further demonstrates how much everyone hates Mandel :P Agreed. 85-16 is too big a margin for it to simply be Gibbons is the Kasich surrogate in the race. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: henster on December 08, 2017, 05:07:00 PM If I were Brown I'd rather be running against investment banker Gibbons than Mandel.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: Rjjr77 on December 08, 2017, 05:34:49 PM The Franklin County GOP endorsed businessman Michael Gibbons over sitting Treasurer Josh Mandel by a vote of 85-16. (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171206/newcomer-gibbons-upsets-mandel-for-franklin-county-gop-nod) Quite surprising and a bad look for Mandel. Over the past 40 years or so, only 2 candidates not endorsed by the Franklin County GOP have gone on to win statewide primaries. I dont think it shows him gaining momentum, it just confirms what many suspect, that he's been a Kasich plant this whole time. I think it just further demonstrates how much everyone hates Mandel :P Agreed. 85-16 is too big a margin for it to simply be Gibbons is the Kasich surrogate in the race. If this was Hamilton or Delaware or Summit I'd agree, but you have to remember this is Franklin, the party is run by a close close close Kasich ally. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Gibbons Gaining Momentum? Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 08, 2017, 07:23:19 PM If I were Brown I'd rather be running against investment banker Gibbons than Mandel. You have to be an Ohioan to truly understand just how hated Mandel is here. Title: OH-Sen: Mandel Drops Out Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 05, 2018, 02:07:39 PM https://twitter.com/joingles/status/949355495856443403 (https://twitter.com/joingles/status/949355495856443403)
Republican Josh Mandel has just dropped out of the U.S. Senate race against Democratic Incumbent Sherrod Brown. Developing...... Title: Re: BREAKING: Mandel drops out of Ohio senate race Post by: Kamala on January 05, 2018, 02:08:41 PM Apparently his wife is sick.
Title: OH-Sen: Mandel Drops Out Post by: jguy986 on January 05, 2018, 02:09:05 PM Per Ohio Public Radio/TV reporter Jo Ingles: "Republican Josh Mandel has just dropped out of the U.S. Senate race against Democratic Incumbent Sherrod Brown. Developing......"
Title: Re: OH-Sen: Mandel Drops Out Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 05, 2018, 02:11:43 PM Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
This was probably the candidate I was most looking forward to supporting :( Title: Re: OH-Sen: Mandel Drops Out Post by: MT Treasurer on January 05, 2018, 02:12:07 PM Link. (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2018/01/05/republican-u-s-senate-candidate-josh-mandel-drops-out-u-s-senate-race/1008097001/)
Anyway, hardly bad news for Republicans IMO. Title: Re: BREAKING: Mandel drops out of Ohio senate race Post by: The Other Castro on January 05, 2018, 02:12:24 PM Whoa...
So, who's going to be the nominee now? Title: Re: BREAKING: Mandel drops out of Ohio senate race Post by: KingSweden on January 05, 2018, 02:16:42 PM Whoa!
Title: Re: BREAKING: Mandel drops out of Ohio senate race Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 02:17:07 PM Safe D
Title: Re: OH-Sen: Mandel Drops Out Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 05, 2018, 02:18:37 PM My prayers are with Mandel's wife and the entire Mandel family.
------ On one hand, Republicans uniting around their failed 2012 candidate didn't seem to be the best strategy. But on the other hand, the two non-internals we got in 2017 had Mandel leading by margins of 45%-42% and 50%-42%. Who do we expect to jump into the race with Mandel out? Title: Re: BREAKING: Mandel drops out of Ohio senate race Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 02:18:47 PM I bet Renacci drops out of the Governor's race and runs for this.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Brittain33 on January 05, 2018, 02:22:33 PM After the merge into the megathread, the original post isn't faring too well.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Like a Mandel in the Wind '18 Post by: Holmes on January 05, 2018, 02:26:04 PM Wow.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Brittain33 on January 05, 2018, 02:27:08 PM Damn it, I wanted to retitle the megathread Mandel in the Wind but we have to keep the actual headline in the title today.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 05, 2018, 02:28:08 PM I mean this seriously the candidate I was looking forward to most because it would have been nice to get rid or disgusting brown and replace him with a Jewish Conservative.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Skye on January 05, 2018, 02:28:39 PM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Brittain33 on January 05, 2018, 02:30:33 PM Deleted my previous post. Reading Mandel's actual statement, I take him at his word about his wife's health.
Quote Friends & Family, Over a year ago, I launched a campaign for US Senate to make our state and country a better place for my children and yours. Since then, we’ve built a campaign that has us on a path to defeating Sherrod Brown this November. We’ve led him in every public poll and we’ve been the top fundraising Republican challenger in the country. That being said, I was raised to believe that family always comes first. I still remember the first two words of advice my father gave me when Ilana and I had our first child: “Be there.” These were the same two words his father told him when I was born. We recently learned that my wife has a health issue that will require my time, attention and presence. In other words, I need to be there. Understanding and dealing with this health issue is more important to me than any political campaign. For as long as that takes, whether it is months or years, it is important that I heed my dad’s advice and be there for my wife and our kids. After recent discussions with our family and healthcare professionals, it has become clear to us that it’s no longer possible for me to be away from home and on the campaign trail for the time needed to run a US Senate race. Therefore, I’m writing today to let you know that I am ending my campaign for US Senate in order to be there for my wife and our three children. This was a difficult decision for us, but it’s the right one. While unexpected, I accept that this changeof course is what God has in store for our family at this time. As we read in the Book of Proverbs, “Many are the plans in a person’s heart, but it’s God’s purpose that prevails.” The issues facing our country are profound and I believe we had a voice and perspective better than the current one in the office. At the same time, I think it’s important to acknowledge the respect I have for Senator Brown for having the passion to advocate for his beliefs and, as Teddy Roosevelt once aptly said, the courage to be “The Man in the Arena.” I will continue to serve out the remainder of my term as State Treasurer and hope to have the opportunity to serve my state and country again in the future. But in the meantime, I must put my family first. I’m grateful for your understanding. Josh Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 02:30:59 PM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on January 05, 2018, 02:34:09 PM Wow, pretty crazy development. Hope his wife is okay, of course.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: GlobeSoc on January 05, 2018, 02:34:47 PM Wow. I'm tempted to say this race is lean D now(from tossup)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 02:36:12 PM Wow. I'm tempted to say this race is lean D now(from tossup) This was already Lean D even with Mandel. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Yank2133 on January 05, 2018, 02:37:09 PM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. Oh? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BudgieForce on January 05, 2018, 02:37:42 PM Wow. I'm tempted to say this race is lean D now(from tossup) This was already Lean D even with Mandel. From the perspective of people who can only look at the polling, Mandel looked like a strong enough challenger to unseat Brown. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Holmes on January 05, 2018, 02:37:44 PM Anyway Franklin county GOP wins again I suppose.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 02:41:28 PM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. Oh? That's my personal guess. If she is actually sick, I obviously wish her well. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on January 05, 2018, 02:49:09 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 05, 2018, 02:50:59 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown. Kasich probably roots for a Democratic takeover of congress. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: GlobeSoc on January 05, 2018, 02:51:18 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown. But would he win the primary? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Brittain33 on January 05, 2018, 02:51:20 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown. I think Kasich is having too much fun being the anti-Trump to want to run against Brown in a race where he'd need Trump's base to win. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 05, 2018, 02:51:25 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown. Any chance that Jim Jordan or some congressman jumps in? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Young Conservative on January 05, 2018, 02:57:25 PM Prayers for Mandel’s family. Personally, I doubt he would’ve won anyway. Rematches almost never work out.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on January 05, 2018, 02:58:32 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown. But would he win the primary? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 03:00:52 PM Republicans only have tell February 7th 2017 to find a candidate. On another note I wonder if Kasich would reconsider running he still is popular enough in Ohio that he may have a shot against Brown. Any chance that Jim Jordan or some congressman jumps in? Kasich isn't going to run, and there's no way in Hell Jordan does. Renacci or Taylor will switch from running for Governor to Senator, or they put up no-name Gibbons, who despite being a "self-funder" only has $670 COH. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Littlefinger on January 05, 2018, 03:02:09 PM Kasich's out according to longtime friend/strategist John Weaver
John Weaver @JWGOP 22m22 minutes ago More To all the press calling, the answer is no. Bigger fish to fry. #TwoPaths Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Blackacre on January 05, 2018, 03:04:00 PM Leans D --> Very Likely D
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Sherrod Brown Shill on January 05, 2018, 03:05:17 PM I REALLY want to gloat right now because Mandel is a douche but he made an honorable choice to put family over politics. He just gained a lot of respect from me.
I'm almost a little nervous because Brown would have creamed Mandel harder than 2012 this year, and now who the hell knows who the nominee will be. DeWine/Husted have pretty much cleared the field in the Gov primary so I expect Taylor and/or Renacci will switch over. At this point I'm gonna guess that the nominee will be Renacci. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 03:09:00 PM Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Sherrod Brown Shill on January 05, 2018, 03:14:30 PM Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run. What about Mary Taylor? Her obvious tie to Kasich could attract moderates. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 03:17:54 PM Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run. What about Mary Taylor? Her obvious tie to Kasich could attract moderates. No... Taylor's still got Kasich's endorsement in the Governor's race, but she's running very pro-Trump. Gibbons meanwhile is loaded up with former Kasich staffers. Not that being a "moderate" is how you win a Republican primary in Ohio anyway. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Sherrod Brown Shill on January 05, 2018, 03:22:24 PM Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run. What about Mary Taylor? Her obvious tie to Kasich could attract moderates. No... Taylor's still got Kasich's endorsement in the Governor's race, but she's running very pro-Trump. Gibbons meanwhile is loaded up with former Kasich staffers. Not that being a "moderate" is how you win a Republican primary in Ohio anyway. She is polling above Renacci, who I think is most likely to switch fields and run. edit: Uhhhh https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/949365946329821185 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 03:30:02 PM Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run. What about Mary Taylor? Her obvious tie to Kasich could attract moderates. No... Taylor's still got Kasich's endorsement in the Governor's race, but she's running very pro-Trump. Gibbons meanwhile is loaded up with former Kasich staffers. Not that being a "moderate" is how you win a Republican primary in Ohio anyway. She is polling above Renacci, who I think is most likely to switch fields and run. edit: Uhhhh https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/949365946329821185 Renacci is polling at like 5% in the Governor's race. Taylor is still a sh!t candidate. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Holmes on January 05, 2018, 03:30:32 PM Yeah It's looking like a no on Kasich. Weaver asked reporters to stop calling because the answer is no, and I doubt Taylor would consider jumping in if Kasich were to.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Sestak on January 05, 2018, 03:33:44 PM Well, this came out of left field.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Littlefinger on January 05, 2018, 03:37:17 PM I'd imagine that retiring Rep. Tiberi is a no as well. IIRC, he is leaving Congress to spend more time with family at home and has a new lofty job as President of the Ohio Business Roundtable.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 03:38:27 PM Renacci leaning toward jumping in: https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/949377507345739776
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Former Kentuckian on January 05, 2018, 03:43:46 PM I'm shocked, but intrigued. 2018 gets more interesting every day.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Sherrod Brown Shill on January 05, 2018, 03:46:40 PM Wow in just a couple hours we went from a shoe in nominee to what might be a Taylor v Renacci showdown! Get your popcorn Ohio!
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 05, 2018, 03:47:17 PM Bye bye, Joshie! :D
Republicans dropping like FLIES. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 05, 2018, 03:53:34 PM Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Bismarck on January 05, 2018, 03:53:50 PM I don’t think this hurts the GOP much. Mandel was not a strong candidate, and running retreads in statewide races rarely works (see Feingold and Strickland).
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 05, 2018, 04:00:11 PM Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 04:00:48 PM Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 04:04:26 PM Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 05, 2018, 04:05:03 PM Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD. Mandel defended Neo-Nazi sympathizer Mike Cernovich when the Anti-Defamation League attacked him. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 05, 2018, 04:05:23 PM Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD. Thank you, finally, I'm not alone on this. There were also blacks that fought for the confederacy, does that make the confederacy and them not racist? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Suburbia on January 05, 2018, 04:12:00 PM Prayers for State Treasurer Josh Mandel's family.
Mandel is still a rising GOP star. I say he runs against Brown in 2024--if Brown is not on the Democratic ticket. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TJ in Oregon on January 05, 2018, 04:12:43 PM Mandel isn't a Nazi, he just has a personal vendetta against the ADL that impairs his judgment on things that involve them.
Although I wish him and his family well, he wasn't a great candidate. Provided the Republicans get someone else in there and don't nominate Gibbons, this could end up improving their chances. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Suburbia on January 05, 2018, 04:18:22 PM OH-SEN 2018 is Lean D.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 05, 2018, 04:20:28 PM Brown is entrenched, has gobs of money, relatively popular, blue year, not too controversial, Strong Lean D. For Republicans, they have a good potential bench, some money, a strong shift towards them in recent elections going for them. Defeating Brown is possible, but right now he should be favored. It will take more than just a mediocre candidate with a little money to take down Brown.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 05, 2018, 04:24:21 PM Would almost be as bad as Moore.
http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/01/the_browns_im_perfect_season_p.html Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Littlefinger on January 05, 2018, 04:28:15 PM Husted not interested in switching..
Jon HustedVerified account @JonHusted Follow Follow @JonHusted More Jon Husted Retweeted Jeremy Pelzer Not a bit ... @MikeDeWine and I are working together better than ever and I’m more confident today than ever that I made the right choice. Jeremy Pelzer Verified account @jpelzer Replying to @DrSaketDuggal @JonHusted Hoo boy, I think it's kinda too late to go back on joining Team DeWine at this point 12:53 PM - 5 Jan 2018 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Free Bird on January 05, 2018, 04:31:40 PM Perhaps Tiberi resigns still but runs now, inheriting Mandel's infrastructure? I hear the only thing that stopped him from plunging this time was Mandel.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 05, 2018, 04:43:24 PM Perhaps Tiberi resigns still but runs now, inheriting Mandel's infrastructure? I hear the only thing that stopped him from plunging this time was Mandel. Too late now. Tiberi's got a very cushy gig lined up. Plus, they wouldn't ever share infrastructure. Very different wings of the party. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Pyro on January 05, 2018, 04:44:05 PM OH-SEN 2018 is Lean D. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: forgotten manatee on January 05, 2018, 05:06:35 PM Hope Mrs. Mandel is OK.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Horsemask on January 05, 2018, 05:10:28 PM Hope his wife is ok
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: mvd10 on January 05, 2018, 05:25:16 PM It's telling that there probably are more posts of people gloating about this than posts of people who feel sorry for his wife. Anyway, I hope his wife gets well soon. Mandel did the right thing.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Nyvin on January 05, 2018, 05:27:52 PM Tiberi is not running
https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/949373253759520768 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 05, 2018, 05:30:27 PM Tiberi is not running https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/949363015144570883 Hopefully it keep getting even better and better. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: henster on January 05, 2018, 06:47:26 PM As a Dem Renacci or Gibbons would be fine. At least Renacci has a voting record to attack and is a sleazy businessman while Gibbons is an establishment tied investment banker who doesn't seem like he would excite Trumpist.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: publicunofficial on January 05, 2018, 07:05:12 PM "My loved one is sick with an undisclosed illness" has been used as an excuse before for candidates running bad campaigns looking for a way to bow out.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on January 05, 2018, 07:14:56 PM "My loved one is sick with an undisclosed illness" has been used as an excuse before for candidates running bad campaigns looking for a way to bow out. Give them the benefit of the doubt honestly. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Cactus Jack on January 05, 2018, 07:54:26 PM I think this one might actually be over. Hope Mandel's wife is okay.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 05, 2018, 08:03:04 PM Yeah, this race is over. Congrats Senator Brown! The GOP keeps getting hit with bad news.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 05, 2018, 08:05:16 PM "My loved one is sick with an undisclosed illness" has been used as an excuse before for candidates running bad campaigns looking for a way to bow out. Give them the benefit of the doubt honestly. Not for skinheads. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 05, 2018, 08:07:55 PM While I think Mandel is a complete PoS, I hope his wife is okay and gotta give him credit for doing the right thing here.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Holmes on January 05, 2018, 08:09:36 PM For all of his faults, I think Mandel is stronger than Taylor. By a mile.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: henster on January 05, 2018, 08:20:23 PM Taylor would have a major issues in the primary she is attached to the hip of Kasich who Trumpist despise including Trump himself.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 05, 2018, 08:27:25 PM Taylor would have a major issues in the primary she is attached to the hip of Kasich who Trumpist despise including Trump himself. Being a Trumpist isn't needed to win an Ohio Primary: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_Republican_primary,_2016 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Holmes on January 05, 2018, 08:47:25 PM Taylor would have a major issues in the primary she is attached to the hip of Kasich who Trumpist despise including Trump himself. Being a Trumpist isn't needed to win an Ohio Primary: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_Republican_primary,_2016 For what it's worth, a lot has changed since March 2016. And Kasich was a favorite son. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Free Bird on January 05, 2018, 09:02:58 PM Tiberi is not running https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/949363015144570883 Hopefully it keep getting even better and better. I wouldn't call someone's wife being ill to the point of having to end a campaign "good." Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: DrScholl on January 05, 2018, 09:13:03 PM Perhaps his wife is ill, but the way the cycle is shaping up probably factored into his decision.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Mike Thick on January 05, 2018, 09:26:08 PM I’ll refrain from commenting on the guy since I don’t really have anything nice to say, but hopefully his wife gets better and they all hold up alright.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Ye We Can on January 06, 2018, 12:51:21 AM Kasich's out according to longtime friend/strategist John Weaver John Weaver @JWGOP 22m22 minutes ago More To all the press calling, the answer is no. Bigger fish to fry. #TwoPaths Anyone else notice the whole "Bigger fish to fry" thing? I couldn't possibly know what Weaver could be referring to here! /s Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Xing on January 06, 2018, 01:43:33 AM I hope his wife recovers. Let's be honest, Mandel probably wouldn't have won anyway. I never bought Brown being more vulnerable than Tester or Manchin anyway.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 06, 2018, 01:48:23 AM Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, an early Trump supporter, evidently considering.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: beesley on January 06, 2018, 05:42:29 AM I hope his wife recovers. Let's be honest, Mandel probably wouldn't have won anyway. I never bought Brown being more vulnerable than Tester or Manchin anyway. I'd argue they're of similar vulnerability. I think Ohio was never that likely to go Republican anyway, it's just moreso than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Usili on January 06, 2018, 12:25:59 PM Mary Taylor isn't running for Senate: https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/949689140072853506
"On #ohsen watch: “@MaryTaylorOH is completely committed to running for governor,” her spokesman @MTDuchesne says. #ohgov" Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 06, 2018, 02:44:47 PM Considering everyone thought (knew) Mandel was a weak candidate, I don't see how him dropping out hurts the GOP.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 06, 2018, 02:55:38 PM Mary Taylor isn't running for Senate: https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/949689140072853506 "On #ohsen watch: “@MaryTaylorOH is completely committed to running for governor,” her spokesman @MTDuchesne says. #ohgov" So I guess Rennacci is the favorite. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 06, 2018, 03:00:40 PM Renacci might be. Gibbons just pledged to loan his campaign $5 mil (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180106/taylor-stays-firm-with-governor-run-renacci-reportedly-considering-bid-for-senate). Though, of course, Renacci is also a self-funder and loaned his Gubernatorial campaign $4 mil, which he can give back to himself, and then loan out to his Senate campaign.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Figueira on January 06, 2018, 04:05:41 PM I hope Mandel's wife is OK.
That said, I don't see why this makes Brown less vulnerable. Mandel would have been a worse candidate than most OH Republicans. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 06, 2018, 05:06:19 PM Mandel is still quite popular with Trump voters and benefits from good name ID.
Getting in this late is will prove to be a major hurdle for damn near everyone. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: edtorres04 on January 06, 2018, 10:10:39 PM Mary Taylor to stay in gov race.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Figueira on January 07, 2018, 01:23:17 AM Mandel is still quite popular with Trump voters and benefits from good name ID. Getting in this late is will prove to be a major hurdle for damn near everyone. I'm skeptical that the first one would ultimately matter, but your last point is a good one. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Dr. MB on January 07, 2018, 03:11:18 AM Viva Sherrod! And condolences to Mandel and his wife.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 07, 2018, 06:54:36 PM Mary Taylor to stay in gov race. Keeps getting better and better, long live King Sherrod, dilly dilly! Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Nyvin on January 08, 2018, 09:27:10 AM So it looks like it'll be Renacci vs Gibbons in the GOP primary.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Heisenberg on January 08, 2018, 10:10:57 AM So it looks like it'll be Renacci vs Gibbons in the GOP primary. Quote Asked if he might run for the Senate instead of governor, Renacci said, "I haven't even thought about it yet. I haven't even talked to any family member about any of that. I'm continuing to run for governor." http://www.newarkadvocate.com/story/news/2018/01/08/candidate-governor-touts-business-experience-attacks-career-politicians/1008053001/Quote Congressman Jim Renacci is said to be considering leaving the governor’s race to run. But Mike Gibbons, who’s been campaigning for the Senate nomination for months, said 16 current Renacci for Governor local chairs have announced their support for him. http://wksu.org/post/mandel-out-senate-race-turns-other-republicans#stream/0Unless you know something I don't, it doesn't sound like Renacci will jump in. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 08, 2018, 12:13:33 PM I always thought Gibbons was more intimidating than Mandel anyway. Unless the Ohio posters here can explain why I might be wrong on that? Name rec has a lot to do with it. If Clinton were President, Mandel would be a worse candidate – despite Sherrod being more vulnerable – as his brand of politics would be hurting, but he's always been one to buck Kasich, and given the coupe in the Ohio GOP that put a Trumpeter in charge, Mandel's vision of politics is on the up and up with the establishment. And for all the talk about being a "self funder," Gibbons has been afraid to actually help his campaign's finances in any meaningful way. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Usili on January 08, 2018, 10:51:53 PM So in a probable squashing of Vance for Senate: https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/950560553755467776
Quote Actually, this is very, very unlikely... @RandyLudlow talked to folks in Columbus who work w/J.D and covered Vance's talks...he's interested in politics at some point, but timing is bad now w/new baby and wife's job clerking for federal judge. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Suburbia on January 08, 2018, 11:42:34 PM Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 08, 2018, 11:44:38 PM Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%. ROTFL Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Holmes on January 09, 2018, 12:16:58 AM Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%. If Blackwell does well in the suburbs but loses by 20%, where does he get crushed to provide such a margin? Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinatti wouldn't be enough. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 09, 2018, 12:56:07 AM Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%. ROTFL IKR? We could actually run Ted for Senate again and win if the GOP put up Blackwell. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 09, 2018, 12:51:13 PM Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%. If Blackwell does well in the suburbs but loses by 20%, where does he get crushed to provide such a margin? Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinatti wouldn't be enough. >taking bronz seriously Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 09, 2018, 03:15:37 PM The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite).
TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 09, 2018, 04:54:56 PM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. been gone for a bit, and Ohios blown up. My sources confirm Mandel's wife is genuinely ill Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 09, 2018, 04:57:34 PM The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite). TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 09, 2018, 04:59:56 PM The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite). TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid. But why trade a state-senate president bid for a surefire loss in a Senate race? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 09, 2018, 05:03:33 PM The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite). TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid. But why trade a state-senate president bid for a surefire loss in a Senate race? Senate president is no gimmie, 2 other very viable names, and it would be huffmans only shot. Surefire loss? no. but certainly a likely loss. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 09, 2018, 05:13:17 PM Ohio posters, how bad (or good) would it be for Republicans if Gibbons actually ends up as the nominee?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 09, 2018, 05:16:22 PM Ohio posters, how bad (or good) would it be for Republicans if Gibbons actually ends up as the nominee? Gibbons is a joke. Hes been a pay as he goes candidate with a dismally weak staff and crappy poll numbers. He's a lousy public speaker and has hidden Kasich ties. He could drag down the whole GOP slate. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 09, 2018, 07:38:29 PM Ohio posters, how bad (or good) would it be for Republicans if Gibbons actually ends up as the nominee? Gibbons is a joke. Hes been a pay as he goes candidate with a dismally weak staff and crappy poll numbers. He's a lousy public speaker and has hidden Kasich ties. He could drag down the whole GOP slate. This aside from the last sentence. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 02:07:11 AM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. been gone for a bit, and Ohios blown up. My sources confirm Mandel's wife is genuinely ill That being the case, I genuinely wish him and his family well. The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite). TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid. Seems early to say Johnson isn't running, unless they know he's got the Chairmanship. Tangentially related to Huffman: do you know what happened to Kevin Coughlin? Title: OH-SEN: Who wins GOP primary Post by: I’m not Stu on January 10, 2018, 03:43:01 AM Who wins GOP primary now that Mandel is out?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 10, 2018, 04:14:31 AM Ohio posters, how bad (or good) would it be for Republicans if Gibbons actually ends up as the nominee? Gibbons is a joke. Hes been a pay as he goes candidate with a dismally weak staff and crappy poll numbers. He's a lousy public speaker and has hidden Kasich ties. He could drag down the whole GOP slate. I don't think it was ever a secret that Gibbons was a Kasich ally. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: MaxQue on January 10, 2018, 04:23:05 AM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. been gone for a bit, and Ohios blown up. My sources confirm Mandel's wife is genuinely ill That being the case, I genuinely wish him and his family well. The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite). TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid. Seems early to say Johnson isn't running, unless they know he's got the Chairmanship. Tangentially related to Huffman: do you know what happened to Kevin Coughlin? He was elected clerk of a municipal court in Summit County 2013 and managed to lose to a Democrat in 2015. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 12:42:32 PM Guess we won't see Coughlin run for Senate, then. I'm frankly surprised Summit elected a Republican countywide, but 2013 probably for shadowed 2024, and Strckland lost it, IIRC.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on January 10, 2018, 01:40:01 PM JD Vance is considering a run now. Seems like the sort of candidacy that maybe sounds good but ends up being disastrous. Would he even survive the primary?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 04:37:21 PM JD Vance is considering a run now. Seems like the sort of candidacy that maybe sounds good but ends up being disastrous. Would he even survive the primary? Probably not, especially if Renacci does get in. You'd basically have two Kasich candidates and OG Trump supporter. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: The Other Castro on January 10, 2018, 05:21:14 PM Renacci is in, dropping out of Gov.
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/10/ohios-u-s-senate-race-mitch-mcconnell-courts-j-d-vance-while-jim-renacci-looks-donald-trump-backing/1021728001/ Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 10, 2018, 05:26:28 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 05:28:48 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 10, 2018, 05:31:28 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 05:34:20 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 10, 2018, 05:36:11 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million. This. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 05:44:09 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million. This. Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: henster on January 10, 2018, 05:59:38 PM The sole reason why Renacci is a better candidate for Dems is he has a voting record Dems can attack while Mandel was just a State Treasurer with no voting record. Mandel could also run as an 'Washington outsider' while Renacci has been in DC for 8 years. Renacci seems like a sleazy businessman as well.
Quote Over his 30 years in business, his companies have been a party in multiple legal cases,[8] including two wrongful death suits related to Renacci's nursing home business,[9] and a complaint filed by more than a half-dozen temporary employees alleging they were not paid for work they did for Renacci's medical billing firm.[10] In all cases, Renacci either settled out of court or the case was dismissed.[9] Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Kamala on January 10, 2018, 06:01:32 PM Renacci killed Grandma!
Also, is the district that he represents the same area Brown (and Sutton) did? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 10, 2018, 06:06:18 PM Renacci killed Grandma! I'll believe this hurts him once Lyin Ryan faces consequences for his constant attempted grandma genocides. ;) Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Heisenberg on January 10, 2018, 06:26:49 PM Is the district that he represents the same area Brown (and Sutton) did? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Usili on January 10, 2018, 06:34:02 PM And Brown has fundraised 2.6M for Q4 totaling 9.8M in the bank for his campaign: http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180110/bring-it-on-renacci-sherrod-brown-announces-98m-bankroll
Quote Brown’s campaign said Brown had his best off-year of fundraising ever and said 113,806 individual donors gave an average contribution of $44 to his campaign. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 10, 2018, 07:32:02 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million. This. Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump. Let’s not get carried away, Mandel was a horrible candidate. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 10, 2018, 10:33:47 PM Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out. She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped. been gone for a bit, and Ohios blown up. My sources confirm Mandel's wife is genuinely ill That being the case, I genuinely wish him and his family well. The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/05/who-might-replace-josh-mandel-u-s-senate-race/1008332001/?platform=hootsuite). TL;DR: Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump. Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in. Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman. Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering. Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid. Seems early to say Johnson isn't running, unless they know he's got the Chairmanship. Tangentially related to Huffman: do you know what happened to Kevin Coughlin? Coughlin went after Summit GOP chair the late Alex Arshnikof, it cost him his career. He was Stow Clerk of Courts for a brief stay before losing a squeaker in 2015, hes now disappeared. Johnson is not running, I have it confirmed. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 10, 2018, 11:02:25 PM Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel. Not really, no. Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million. This. Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump. Let’s not get carried away, Mandel was a horrible candidate. He wasn't great, but I am taking nothing for granted. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TJ in Oregon on January 11, 2018, 12:05:00 AM Renacci might not be the perfect candidate but he's almost certainly a better candidate than Mandel.
It is a shame the reason why Mandel had to drop out though. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 11, 2018, 12:07:30 AM Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Bismarck on January 11, 2018, 12:17:38 PM Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race. As of right now I’d put Brown at 65-70% chance of being re-elected. May be more likely to rise than fall. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 11, 2018, 12:36:41 PM Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race. As of right now I’d put Brown at 65-70% chance of being re-elected. May be more likely to rise than fall. I'd say 85-90% chance. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 11, 2018, 08:17:59 PM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy).
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 11, 2018, 08:36:21 PM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy). Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Young Conservative on January 11, 2018, 08:39:26 PM I think Renacci is a better candidate than Mandel.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Holmes on January 11, 2018, 08:49:08 PM At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 11, 2018, 10:35:26 PM At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide. In 2010 and 2014. Yawn. He also vastly underperformed every other statewide Republican in 2014. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on January 11, 2018, 10:42:16 PM At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide. In 2010 and 2014. Yawn. He also vastly underperformed every other statewide Republican in 2014. Win = Win Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: IceSpear on January 11, 2018, 10:43:46 PM At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide. In 2010 and 2014. Yawn. He also vastly underperformed every other statewide Republican in 2014. Win = Win The point is winning as a Republican in Ohio in 2010/2014 is hardly impressive. Underperforming every other statewide Republican showed his weakness as a candidate. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on January 11, 2018, 10:47:05 PM At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide. In 2010 and 2014. Yawn. He also vastly underperformed every other statewide Republican in 2014. Win = Win The point is winning as a Republican in Ohio in 2010/2014 is hardly impressive. Underperforming every other statewide Republican showed his weakness as a candidate. Not impressive? He was the best performing Republican in 2010. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: publicunofficial on January 12, 2018, 01:24:01 AM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy). I feel like nearly everyone who read his book and liked it would call themselves a moderate to conservative Democrat, I don't see him ever having a future in Republican politics. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 12, 2018, 02:17:36 PM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy). Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan. or a new yorker. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 12, 2018, 03:53:43 PM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy). Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan. or a new yorker. Actually, I'd argue Hillary has a far stronger claim to being a New Yorker than Vance does to being an Ohioan at this point. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: RogueBeaver on January 19, 2018, 11:04:34 AM Vance out. (https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/954382304738234369)
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 19, 2018, 05:28:12 PM At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide. In 2010 and 2014. Yawn. He also vastly underperformed every other statewide Republican in 2014. Win = Win The point is winning as a Republican in Ohio in 2010/2014 is hardly impressive. Underperforming every other statewide Republican showed his weakness as a candidate. Not impressive? He was the best performing Republican in 2010. Running against a candidate who had never run for office bigger than Columbus City Council... It would be saying something if he was running against Cordray, who was originally elected to the position. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Rjjr77 on January 19, 2018, 05:34:47 PM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy). Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan. or a new yorker. Actually, I'd argue Hillary has a far stronger claim to being a New Yorker than Vance does to being an Ohioan at this point. How? Vance at least has lived in Ohio, Clinton had not lived in New York 1 minute prior to running for Senate Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: MAINEiac4434 on January 19, 2018, 11:37:48 PM Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency (http://residency.http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180111/residency-issue-trump-criticisms-may-have-sunk-vances-candidacy). Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan. or a new yorker. Actually, I'd argue Hillary has a far stronger claim to being a New Yorker than Vance does to being an Ohioan at this point. How? Vance at least has lived in Ohio, Clinton had not lived in New York 1 minute prior to running for Senate Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 30, 2018, 11:24:55 PM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: The Other Castro on February 15, 2018, 02:37:22 PM Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 15, 2018, 03:31:38 PM Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons. https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12 lolwut Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 15, 2018, 04:01:01 PM Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons. https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12 lolwut LOL Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: _ on February 15, 2018, 05:14:56 PM Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons. https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12 lolwut LOL Kek Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: NevadanAtHeart on February 15, 2018, 07:27:15 PM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio. Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Bismarck on February 15, 2018, 07:31:27 PM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio. Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked. Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse? Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 15, 2018, 08:50:20 PM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio. Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked. Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse? Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Free Bird on February 15, 2018, 11:11:41 PM I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 17, 2018, 08:55:19 AM I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal. Maybe. But Renacci is a huge unknown for the vast majority of the state and he doesn't come across as authentic. Brown's been winning statewide elections since the 1980's. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 17, 2018, 10:48:37 AM I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal. Trump’s schtick only works if the other candidate is more hated than the bubonic plague. I don’t think folks realize how much many Ohioans hated Hillary; I didn’t even canvass for her campaign b/c I was worried that my contempt for her would come through. She just did not play well in the cultural Midwest. Even Franklin County was overflowing with Democrats like me who were only voting for her because of how bad Trump was; don’t let the machine-dominated primary fool you. Hillary was almost as much of an anathema to cultural Midwesterners as she was to blue-collar WWC folks (the media often mistakenly conflates the two although there is *some* overlap in certain places), but for very different reasons (the percieved insincerity and lack of likability hurt with cultural Midwesterners while with the WWC there was a lot more sexism and redirected anger at Bill Clinton in the mix). Trump did not play well outside of the blood red rural areas and certain WWC areas, many Republicans held their noses and voted for him while many Democrats didn’t turnout for Hillary (a big overlooked story in Ohio), it’s just that Hillary came off even worse. Ohio likes its statewide Republicans to *sound* inoffensive, civil, and non-threatening when they’re saying horrible things (think Patton Oswalt’s Starbucks bigot bit). Kasich (ironically a notoriously nasty individual in private) and Husted are great examples of this. Renacci - like Mandel - took the wrong lesson away from 2016. Someone like Biden, Brown, pre-scandal Franken, etc would’ve carried Ohio by high single-digits. That said, I think Sanders would’ve only done 1-2 points better than Hillary here at best and could’ve easily done even worse. Turnout would’ve been much worse in Franklin County, he’d have done much worse in Hamilton County, and I suspect we’d have seen even lower African-American turnout across the country (including in Ohio). The path to victory in Ohio that year was a straight white guy with blue-collar appeal whose style didn’t offend the cultural sensibilities of affluent, highly-educated suburbanites. At this point, Berniecrats and educated, affluent suburbanites need each other to get anything done (i.e. take back Congress). The latter group needs to accept that :) :) socially liberal, fiscally conservative :) :) corporate attorneys are not gonna play well in places like ME-2 and the former need to stop reflexively opposing anything the “establishment” does. Sometimes establishment backed candidates really are the best person running (ex: Gil Cisneros and Steve Horsford), but I digress. The point is that no one really hates Sherrod Brown, not even your average OH Republican. If I had to summarize how most Ohioans see Sherrod (another thing, how many other Senators are often referred to by their first name by their constituents?) it’d be “he’s one of us, fighting for us.” He even got endorsed by a Republican County chair in a decently-sized county in 2012. He has a strong personal brand completely separate from the Democratic Party. Plus he comes across as a very blue-collar, down-to-earth guy whereas Renacci is basically a rich some dude who bought his way into Congress in a Republican wave year. He was always a notoriously weak incumbent with poor constituent service and most were surprised the Republicans threw Austria to the wolves rather than him (my guess is that either Gibbs or Renacci was saved by geography, both wasted no time developing reputations for extreme lazyness and general incompetence, respectively). Honestly, I don’t even think Renacci has a path to victory given the current environment (although he’s arguably a step up from the boy blunder a.k.a. Josh Mandel and both are “stronger” than Vance would’ve been). I strongly suspect this will be right on the border between Likely D and Safe D by Labor Day. Renacci probably would’ve lost even in a Hillary midterm (as would Mandel, but he wouldn’t be the nominee since Kasich would ascendant in such a scenario), but someone like Husted or Stivers would’ve easily won. As it stands, Husted, DeWine, Kasich, Taylor, Tiberi, Stivers, Faber, Yost, Huffman, etc all chose not to run for Senate b/c Republicans simply weren’t gonna pick this seat up during a Trumpterm and everyone knew it. Even Renacci initially ran for Governor :P TL;DR: The reason the nomination was left to the likes of Mandel and Renacci is that everyone knows there’s no path to victory against Brown this cycle barring some massive unforeseeable scandal which while you never know with these people (exhibit A: Al Franken, exhibit B: Roy Moore, never would’ve guessed either in a million years), is probably a bit less likely with Brown than your average politician. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on February 17, 2018, 11:55:58 AM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio. Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked. Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse? Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian. wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month? Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 17, 2018, 12:31:35 PM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio. Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked. Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse? Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian. wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month? Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy. Renacci’s membership in the MSP is a joke. He’s very Trumpian. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 17, 2018, 12:32:23 PM Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio. Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked. Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse? Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian. wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month? Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy. Renacci’s membership in the MSP is a joke. He’s very Trumpian. To be fair, the entire MSP is kind of a joke at this point :P Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Free Bird on February 17, 2018, 02:23:39 PM I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal. Maybe. But Renacci is a huge unknown for the vast majority of the state and he doesn't come across as authentic. Brown's been winning statewide elections since the 1980's. He may be politiciany, but being an unknown statewide could either be a good or bad thing depending on how he plays his cards. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: MarkD on February 17, 2018, 06:36:38 PM Renacci fits right in to the Republican Main Street Partnership -- a moderately conservative guy. His approval ratings from the American Conservative Union for the years 2011-2016 are an average 71.2%.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: LimoLiberal on February 17, 2018, 06:42:40 PM So how many months until this gets triaged by the NRSC?
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on February 18, 2018, 12:15:26 AM Renacci fits right in to the Republican Main Street Partnership -- a moderately conservative guy. His approval ratings from the American Conservative Union for the years 2011-2016 are an average 71.2%. Renacci did endorse Trump and he's been tying himself to Trump. But this isn't inconsistent with being moderate on many issues. It shouldn't be surprisng that someone like Rand Paul would consider Gibbons, and Gibbons to present himself, as the "conservative" one in the race versus Renacci. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Kantakouzenos on March 26, 2018, 12:44:49 PM Survey USA polled this race and it finds Sherrod Brown leading Renacci and Gibbons by 14 points (52-38 in both cases).
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b21c66fb-ba89-4b8c-9171-30457f6997d2 Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Horus on March 26, 2018, 01:47:29 PM Survey USA polled this race and it finds Sherrod Brown leading Renacci and Gibbons by 14 points (52-38 in both cases). http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b21c66fb-ba89-4b8c-9171-30457f6997d2 I know this is a bit off topic, and that SUSA is notorious for terrible crosstabs, but Kasich's approval rating with black voters is actually higher than his white approval. You don't see that often. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: BuckeyeNut on May 05, 2018, 01:05:43 PM With just days left before the primary, Gibbons is suing Renacci in a $1 million defamation suit.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Oryxslayer on May 08, 2018, 06:25:01 PM Polls close shortly, giving this a bump to act as a discussion thread.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 08, 2018, 07:20:56 PM With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.
The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Oryxslayer on May 08, 2018, 07:23:50 PM With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected. The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW. Looks like your standard media market map though. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 08, 2018, 07:25:57 PM With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected. The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW. Looks like your standard media market map though. Oh definitely. For example, Erie and Huron Counties have a lot more in common with Ottawa and Sandusky Counties, but are in different media markets and their vote looks like it. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 08, 2018, 07:49:28 PM Seems to be tightening slightly: Renacci down to 43.9%-33.5%.
I suspect that may be due to Cuyahoga County being underrepresented right now. Half of Renacci's statewide lead is from the Cuyahoga County early vote! Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Oryxslayer on May 08, 2018, 07:57:26 PM We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 08, 2018, 08:00:12 PM We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters. Yeah, and that Cuyahoga turning out a lot more new voters is rather likely to help Renacci not Gibbons. I suspect that for Gibbons to have a path, he needed to do better among the more white collar GOP base in the SW. Cuyahoga was always going to be rough for him. Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Oryxslayer on May 08, 2018, 08:42:15 PM Renacci gets his call from AP/NYT.
Title: Re: OH-SEN: Mandel drops out! Post by: Badger on May 09, 2018, 12:04:06 PM A less than impressive plurality win for Renacci.
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