Talk Elections

Now that the 2016 race is over (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=232458.0)

Does anyone know which Democrats are interested in a run?

Does NH have gubernatorial elections every 2 years or what?

Yeah, NH and VT are the only states that hold gubernatorial elections every 2 years.

How bizarre, but that might not be a bad idea.

Probably some climbing white woman.

I'll probably support Sununu, except I think Chris Pappas would be interesting.

If Sununu remains moderate he probably stays for a bit. Democrats probably have a State Rep or Senator run until 2020 when they have a better shot at beating him.

Why do Democrats have a better shot at beating him in 2020 than 2018?

Did Van Ostern rule out a rematch?

Frank Edelblut has not ruled out a rematch with Chris Sununu for the GOP nomination.Edelblut lost the primary to Sununu 30-29.

http://www.nh1.com/news/edelblut-tells-nh1-news-he-s-not-closing-any-doors-to-2018/ (http://www.nh1.com/news/edelblut-tells-nh1-news-he-s-not-closing-any-doors-to-2018/)

I forgot about him. I wonder what his future is.

Hopefully Stefany Shaheen comes along and dominates Sununu until it's clear that he knows his place.

Papas or Shaheen are the most likely challengers and both I believe could defeat Sununu

No man can stop Klimbing Kuster!

But can any man defeat Scaling Stefany?

I can't remember her name.

Climbing Craggie? Climbing Haggie? Climbing Snaggie?

Darn it....If only I could remember... :(

Sununu is by far the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in New England. Not really saying much though.

Is Sununu not very popular?

Everyone else is Extremely popular (Baker, Scott, LePage), and in comparison he is vulnerable.

Why do you want a Shaheen dynasty? If the Shaheen machine was that strong then with the strength of Hillary, why did they lose big in NH with Hassan, Shaheen & everyone campaigning for Hillary?

Wait, since when is LePage extremely popular? I know that he's term-limited, so that wouldn't change Sununu being the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in New England who can run again, but last I checked, LePage's approval ratings were quite a bit underwater.

LePage isn't very popular...

LePage's approvals are in the mid-thirties.

Do you hate NH? Or are you a closed Dem?

Why hate NH of all states?

LePage is term-limited. If he weren't I would say he was the most vulnerable.

My reasoning is that Baker is popular and Scott, while he was just elected, looks like a Baker type and Vermont tends to love incumbents. Also both of them have very little power since Democrats control the legislatures.

Sununu's party on the other hand has full control over the state, so voters actually have policies to vote against. Also the last Republican Governor there lost after one term. I think Sununu is slightly favored but not to the extent that Baker is. And Baker is more vulnerable than Scott.

Cool story bro.

You realize you're talking about a Republican governor elect right? Meaning he got elected with an R next to his name not even two months ago

The R's in NH run literally every branch of the state government now.

Ironically they don't hold any federal offices though.

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"???? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

My money is on Executive Councilor Chris Pappas running.

How would you handicap such a race?

Even more than that. A little better performance by NH Democrats this year and we could instead be looking at a Democratic state government instead. Sununu barely won, and there were enough enough GOP-won state senate races within 4 points to flip the chamber. I'm sure a similarly better tide could have paid dividends in the house too.

My bet is that TNVol is going to feel quite vindicated by Nov 2020, but probably sooner.

Sununu won by a very underwhelming margin against a very bad opponent. Republicans have real trouble winning statewide or federal races in NH, especially when you compare it with how well they do in gubernatorial races (and sometimes even Congressional races) in all the other New England states. I also think Ayotte would have beaten Hassan had she run in Maine, but maybe that's debatable.  

If NH really was such a competitive bellwether state, Trump and Ayotte wouldn't have lost it. So yeah, while NH did trend a bit Republican this year, I fully expect the state to trend even more away from the GOP in the coming years. The Democratic floor there is ridiculously high.

Not the person you were addressing, but I'd rate it Lean D, as it is a midterm, but closer to Tossup than Likely D.

At the moment Tossup to Lean D.

Pappas would make sense, as would Shaheen.

I'm also almost certain that Steve Marchand is going to run again, given that he seemingly got in late this time to raise name ID for the next round.

Why do you have such an obsessive hatred of New Hampshire.

Just want to address the notion of Kuster running: NH GOV is basically worth a bucket of warm urine. All state contracts over 10k and a bunch of other things have to pass a 5 member executive council (as other folks have noted in the thread). Kuster is likely far better off amassing seniority in the House or waiting, waiting, waiting for Shaheen to retire.

well, Shaheen turns 70 this year, but Kuster turns 61 too. And next Senate election in state is in 2020. May be too late for a long Senate career...

Well yeah. In that case she should just stay in Congress, since the corner office in NH is a strict downgrade.

Right to work is coming! Great news! Crush the unions.

Link (https://twitter.com/toddbookman/status/822131705268043778)

Quite worthless legislation in a state with a 2.6% unemployment rate.  


Not to mention two other tidbits:

1.  The NH state government operates on a bare bones budget and only performs the most rudimentary tasks that you typically see state governments perform.   A friend of mine pointed out how Massachusetts and Maine both have reflectors on their state roads, while NH has nothing of the sort.    You see these discrepancies all over, especially in contrast to Massachusetts.  As the head of the NH state government,  you REALLY don't get much to work with.

2.  Being elected every two years as opposed to four in one of the most politically volatile states in the country.

You have to say...NH Gov is the pits,  so much hassle and so little benefit.  

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

Yeah, but for that to happen either wave or better candiddate, then rather bland Lawrence, is required...

Lawrence came shockingly close. Flanagan would have probably made it even closer, but still lost.

I honestly would take a job w/ NH GOP just to make it red again to troll MT Treasurer/TN Volunteer.

Probably - partisanship. Percentages in all major races in New Hampshire (President, Senator, Governor, House) were, generally, similar. Sununu got slightly better percentage (more crossover appeal???), but all are, essentially, similar.

Republicans can still win with relatively conservative candidate in 1st, but will, probably, need moderate in 2nd...

I think NH-02 might have been closer than usual this time largely because of depressed Sanders voters.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.

It was one of the strongest Democratic waves with incumbent being a popular and noncontrovercial Democratic governor. Do we have that NOW???

Well, i just read governor Scott (Vermont) statement. It seems he would like to do what you want, but, with a lot of money coming to state budget from federals, simply can't denounce it directly. I think a lot of Republican officeholders will be in the same position..

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Who said that a state with Republican trifecta is turning into safe D? All Democratic victories in 2016 were very narrow, and, in some cases (Guinta) - against very flawed opponents..

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

BTW, the northernmost county of New Hampshire (Coos), which may have some similarities with likewise counties in Maine (strong blue-collar Democratic areas mixed with some ancestrally Republican one, not especially high level of education, and so on) also swung heavily to Trump... It's relatively small, so it didn't influenced New Hampshire results too much, but - still...

Same with Essex County, Vermont. For whatever reason, that huge region of Essex, Coos, every inland county in Maine, and Washington County swung heavily towards Trump.

Yeah, i noticed it too. So, probably, a combination of factors (mostly white+ mostly blue collar+ not very high education level+ mostly rural+ may be something else) is determining factor of last year swing to Trump where we observe it... Midwestern  and Appalachian areas, which swung to Trump, also exhibit many of those features... And even some Southern (like NE Mississippi) - too...

Ooooh, an angry NH woman! Bet you're excited

Over the past fifteen years, Maine has gotten an influx of African refugees from Somalia and Sudan. Older, white Mariners who voted Democrat, especially Franco-Americans, think they're bringing crime, draining welfare and not integrating into their communities. You can see why the current tract of the Republican Party would appeal to them.

Berlin and Gorham in Coos county (White Mountains area) still votes Democratic.   It's mostly the area along the Connecticut River that swung heavily to Trump, in Coos County.

Yeah, but even there Clinton got only 50% against 45% for Trump. Usually Democrats fare much better.

Good job GOPers who voted against that disastrous legislation. Interesting to see where Sunununununu will go from here.

Great news! Thankful for the courage of the anti-RTW NH GOP reps. 

Next step: gain trifectas in a few RTW states during the midterms and repeal these awful laws. And also come up with legislative workarounds in response to the inevitable gutting of public unions in Friedrichs 2.0 whenever Gorsuch joins the Court. 

Republican Quadfecta is more accurate.

I think the largest per-capita in the world.

Meh, I'd also like to chime in that many GOP victories in NH were narrow as well. I believe there were like 3 State Senate races where the Republican only won by 4 or fewer points, and like 6 where it was <8 points. Their grip on power is pretty unstable, but Democrats don't really have any grip either. 2016 had a remarkable number of close races in NH.

But, with that, I'd say the GOP is pretty vulnerable in the legislature and maybe even Gov race in 2018. Probably won't even take national wave conditions to cost the GOP a chamber or two in NH with these kinds of numbers.

edit: ok noticed it was an old post but w/e

It's quite pointless too.   People just vote straight ticket 95% of the time, that leads to districts electing slates of representatives that are 100% Democrat or 100% Republican almost universally.  

It would be so easy to downsize the chamber and have it be way more effective.  

But then all those hard working legislators would be out of work!

That said, I also kind of dislike the system that Washington, Arizona, and New Jersey use where each Senate district elects two House members. Leads to smaller communities not being represented enough IMO.

Lol if they can't unite their caucus behind this kind of important legislation.

Good that reasonable Republicans, not voting for idiotic legislation, and having their own (distinct from party leadership) opinion on isuues still exist. AFAIK - there are similar Democrats too....

They get paid $200 a term. For 90% of them, it's more a question of losing their hobby they picked up when the kids went off to college rather than any financial concern.

Absolutely. I was surprized at the extremely high number of retired persons in New Hampshire legislature, but only until i saw a legislator's payment sum. It's really a hobby for vast majority of them...

I am so happy "right to work" was defeated. I'll take good news wherever I can get it.

Huh, pleasantly surprised you're anti-RTW.

I am not anti-union, though i can't say i admire all of them. And i am pro-environment, pro-choice (with only minimal restrictions, which looks reasonable to me) and pro-SSM (though it took time for me to come to this position, i was "only" pro civil unions initially). So - i am not that "reactionary", rather very strong "anti-party maverick", who is absolutely mad about present day political polarization (especially - compared to early 1970th when i began to study politics).....

lol does this even matter? We'll have national RTW soon anyway

I think they were terribly afraid of the backlash they would cause with it. NH is a solidly liberal state when it comes to issues like abortion, unions, gay marriage, pot, workers rights etc. It's why Republicans like Sununu basically have to govern like very liberal Republicans/"Democrats lite" in order for them to even stand a small chance of winning reelection in 2018. Scott, Baker and Hogan seem to be much better at this than Sununu, though.

The ultra conservative NH of the 80s is long gone, and Sununu needs to realize this ASAP.

-NH, like VT, had a strong 1980 Anderson vote.

HA HA KRAZEN!

Not so long as it takes 8 Democrats to sign off on it. If Republicans find a way to do it without them (filibuster "reform"?), then Democrats can just as easily roll it back next time we have full control, even if that takes a while.

A major setback for the governor. Certainly will be interesting to see.

That's what they said about Taft Hartley.

A shame but why is the Sununu family royally incompetent in government?  I would've thought NH was a great RTW State in the Northeast.

Sununu approval: 42/13 (+29)

Shaheen favorability: 50/32 (+18)
Hassan favorability: 47/36 (+11)
Shea-Porter favorability: 36/29 (+7)
Kuster favorability: 36/28 (+8)

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_govapp21517.pdf

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_congapp21617.pdf

Those Sununu numbers look off. Probably the people who didn't choose either will break heavily against him. Of course, the four Angries are popular, no surprise.

It turns out that Sununu's Education Dept appointee has donated money to a lawsuit against the state.  (http://www.concordmonitor.com/frank-edelblut-donated-to-croydon-fund-8710348)

This is going to make a lot of NH women angry!

Steve Marchand running again. (http://www.concordmonitor.com/steve-marchand-announces-run-for-governor-9068049)

He was one of the Democratic candidates last time. Probably not the best candidate, but at least someone is running.

He's dismissed in GOP circles, and I don't think he's a strong candidate. That being said, he's getting early which is smart, and two if he is able to tap into the grassroots element here in the state, couple with the national tide in '18 he could win.

He was dismissed in Dem cricles too. When I worked for HFA in NH, whenever anyone brought up Marchand the party workers had to physically stop themselves from rolling their eyes.

That's b/c IIRC he was chairman of No Labels when they were slobbering all over Trump.  I've heard Van Ostern and Connolly are both considering a re-match, but even if neither runs, Marchand won't be the nominee.

Woah, Van Ostern was only 37 last cycle? I didn't realize how young he is.

Is that so? Wow. I thought it was because he was a stereotypical Local Politician With High Opinion Of Self.

I met CVO once. He was a great guy (and was clearly the one who NHDP workers wanted).

Huh, that's fascinating. Did not know that.

Is Chris Pappas getting any mention? He seems a bit cautious about jumping in.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_spring_govapp050917.pdf

Sununu approval:

57% Approve
17% Disapprove


Horrible state.

Van Ostern is such a flop of a candidate, the guy puts out no energy whatsoever.   I went to a rally of his and I got quite bored of listening to him talk in like 3 minutes.

Please please please not Ostern again.  

Marchand isn't a serious candidate either,  I think he has good intentions and is intelligent, but he has no connections and isn't a good fit for the state.   Sometimes I think he talks about drugs...a little too much.

If Stefany Shaheen proposed marriage to you, would you accept?

What about Chris Pappas?

Pretty much Van Ostern but shorter.

]

Run, Stefani, run!

Please seek help.

As usual, in New Hampshire it seems the undecideds are usually pretty Democratic leaning (as in all those polls that had Ayotte up by 5 or more), I'm surprised he was +40 that recently even after all his political defeats, such as right-to-work, which was never even popular there to begin with.

Sununu's favored until Dems find someone other than Marchand or Hodes, like...idk Joe Foster maybe?

Van Ostern would probably win in a Trump midterm. He nearly did in 2016.

NH is an interesting case for 2018 imo. Last year, basically every statewide race and the 2 Congressional districts were won only by small margins, which fits with a relatively small amount of ticket splitting. Trump has real potential to drag down Republicans in NH. The state has been trending Democratic since the early 90s, so that means Republicans have 3 things going against them in the Governor's race: (1) an incumbent whose performance was only marginally better than the top of the ticket, (2) a state which is already predisposed to leaning towards Democrats, and (3) an incumbent GOP president who is very unpopular - maybe not 20-ish% approval, but even 30s or low 40s is pretty bad.

However, we really need to wait and see what develops by next year. It's just too early to know if Sununu can develop his own brand and market himself in a way that detaches from Trump's all-encompassing presidential stench. I just think he has his work cut out for him.

One interesting thing about New Hampshire I think is being glossed over is the potential Democrats have for taking back the legislature. The state House is already swingy, but the state Senate has some real opportunities, and that is even factoring in a GOPmander. It's not hard to see Democrats sweeping the legislature next year if Trump is as unpopular as he is now.

Maybe whoever the gubernatorial candidate is can ride on Kusty's coattails :P.

And this reminds me of why I never want to directly work in politics:

http://www.unionleader.com/politics/sununu-says-he-will-turn-over-nh-voter-data-to-federal-fraud-commission-20170630


Such blatant lies and hypocrisy.

This entire commission is nothing but a sham for Trump and Republicans to justify more voter suppression. No matter how many times they say their measures are to increase confidence in the elections, nothing will ever be enough. They will keep coming back with more suppression laws, crying about integrity and confidence when it is Republicans themselves who are ruining confidence in our elections. They are the ones screaming about fraud day-in, day-out, knowing full well they can't even prove it because it just isn't happening like they say it is. That is why they are shifting to the "confidence" and "integrity" narrative. They know they have no proof.

My one hope is that next time Democrats get a unified state govt in New Hampshire, they repeal whatever Republicans did during their time in power and put a constitutional amendment on the ballot enshrining the right to vote, thus making it legally difficult to pass laws restricting the right to vote in NH. I really don't understand why Democrats are not doing this in more states. Follow Illinois' example.

*bump*

Sununu confirms he’s running for re-election in 2018 (https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2017/10/05/sununu-confirms-hes-running-for-re-election-in-2018)


He also said that he will never run for Senate (http://www.fosters.com/news/20170925/gov-sununu-vows-never-to-run-for-us-senate)


Let's hope he doesn't change his mind.

Also: According to Morning Consult, Trump is more unpopular in New Hampshire (-19%) than he is in Pennsylvania (-6%), Nevada (-8%), Maine (-10%), New Mexico (-10%), Virginia (-11%), Wisconsin (-12%), Colorado (-13%), Michigan (-15%), Minnesota (-17%), and even Oregon (-18%).  (https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/10/trump-approval-dips-in-every-state-though-deep-pockets-of-support-remain/)

It seems really messed up that part of your distaste for NH is its perceived liberalism, but you wouldn't want it to start electing more conservative politicians...  It's almost as weird/annoying as Ice Spear WANTING Democrats to lose races in WV.

Yeah I seriously dont get it. Okay its fine if you dont like a state, but you should atleast not wanna concede it entirely to the other party. Like I hate California, but I'll still always support Cali Republicans. If you dont like NH and lean right, root for the NH Republicans

New UNH/WMUR poll:

Shaheen (D) approval: 56/26 (+30) (+45 among females, +14 among males)
Hassan (D) approval: 50/29 (+21) (+35 among females, +6 among males)
Shea-Porter (D) approval: 38/27 (+11) (+22 among females, +2 among males)
Kuster (D) approval: 37/23 (+14) (+22 among females, +4 among males)

Link. (https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_fall_congdel101917.pdf)

:)

Where did you find to money to commission this poll?

Shaheen at North Korea levels among females!

Hopefully one of the good Democrats, like Colin Van Ostern or Chris Pappas, doesn’t run this time.

Such a great state.

I notice they didn't poll Chris "not a woman" Sununu for his approval rating.

Why bother polling a lame duck? They should be more concerned with Gov.-elect Stefany Shaheen's approval rating.

Haha, I just noticed you mentioned me a couple days before I came back! What a coincidence. I'm glad to know you still remembered me a year later. ;)

Anyway, I don't WANT Dems to lose races in WV...I just know they definitely will no matter what, so it's not worth trying. If Manchin had even a 1% chance of winning re-election I'd support him, but he doesn't. That's why I support Paula Jean Swearengin. If she wins, everyone will accept the race is safe R and won't throw money into a sinkhole trying to save the doomed Manchin, and she can troll WV voters the entire general election. :)

These days, the only "Democrats" that can get elected in WV are ones that switch to their true party a few months after their inauguration. LOL.

He's probably thinking Ayotte tries a comeback

She will lose.

Climbing Maggie shall climb and nothing else.

The higher you get the branches become thin and the fall will be far worse

I agree. After the presidency, there will be no more going up, and Climbing Maggie will become a part of the history books.

The Tragedy of Climbing Maggie: How She Fell After the Presidency

:(

FF

Oh trust me if she ran for president she'd be a footnote like Lincoln Chaffee last year. I've met her in person once and while she wasn't a douche, she's about as exciting as counting the dimples on a basketball

Non-believer

Climbing Maggie would be a strong player in the democratic primary if she ran. But she would lose the general:

()

Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 310 EVs
Climbing Maggie/Amy Klobuchar (D): 228 EVs

After losing by just 1000 WITH a conservative indie candidate against an equally popular governor? Keep projecting.

Aaron Day is a friggin idiot. He'd be much happier rn if we had a 53rd republican senator to help push the agenda rather than Taxin' Hassan who essentially votes the same as Liawatha in Massachusetts

F, marry, kill: Shaheen, Hassan, Kuster

You must answer this question or you have to live in NH with all 3 for eternity.

F: Hassan (she got a bit of that milf thing going on)
M: Shaheen (she got money)
K: Kuster (too ugly)

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-former-state-sen-molly-kelly-encouraged-to-considers-run-for-governor/17149199


Excellent news!

Education-first candidates get my endorsement almost every time.

Oh, I like her. If she declares, Steve Marchand needs to get out of the way. He had his chance in 2016.

yaaay! yay! yay!!

This may become the most likely Democratic pickup in 2018 because IL dems could mess up their gubernatorial contest!

lol, Sununu is popular in a purple state.  Rauner is unpopular in a blue state.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_winter_govapp21318.pdf

Sununu 61-17 approval rating (+44), up atleast 10 vs potential democrat rivals

FTFY

They also lean heavily D. They released a poll Hillary would win the state by 10 the day before she won it by 0.3

Everything about UNH is terrible...especially their hockey team.

No but seriously, it's about time there's more entrants than Steve Marchand.

Paul Steinhauser‏ @steinhauserNH1
BREAKING: Sources close to @ColinVanOstern tell me he WON'T be making another bid for governor this year #NHPolitics #nhgov #Election2018

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/963841579147563008

If a ham sandwich with a D in front of its name announces in this race, Steve Marchand won't have a choice about getting out of the way.


Seriously, almost everyone in the party hates him, pities him, or doesn't think about him at all.

Titanium-D!

What is your honest, most objective opinion on NH-Gov?

Looking at Sununu, I keep getting the feeling that he is on track to be another Baker-type, not necessarily anything to do with his ideology, but being unbeatable even when the environment is very unfavorable. I don't think he's there yet, but I can't help but think that he has potential to be if Democrats don't dislodge him this year. I'd be very sad if that turned out to be true, because I hate his smug grin and the fact that one of his first actions as Governor was to "tighten up" election rules, aka make it harder for Democrats to vote under the guise of BUSSES OF ILLEGAL VOTERS FROM MASSACHUSETTS!

I don't have a horse in this race, but I hope Sununu wins just because I know MT Treasurer's reaction will be priceless.

Kelly, of course, is very serious candidate. But - easily characterized as "ultraliberal from ultraliberal Keene". What was very good for state Senator, representing very liberal area of the state (her state Senate district was more then 60% for Clinton on 2016, while she got only plurality in the state), may be not so good for governor candidate.

I don't know of anyone who would describe Keene as "ultraliberal."

And I - know a lot. Almost all my friends would characterize 64 - 31% Clinton city this way. We have different sets of friends))))

This although it matters to me since I live here lol

Keene is very liberal by NH standards since we don’t have many areas that vote over 60% for either party. Keene is one of the liberal pockets along with the Portsmouth-Dover-UNH area and the Dartmouth Collehe area

To be fair, Sununu is the kind of Republican I'd generally support, but whether I support him or the Democrat depends on who the Democrat is, of course.

But are we sure that by Kelly hailing from Keene will hurt her enough? New Hampshire is no strongly Republican state.

Newfields I think. Same town as Chris Sununu. It’s an evenly split filthy rich town next to Exeter, near the seacoast

Lean R > Tossup

Safe D because woman

Parody of Bosse and MT

I 100% endorse Molly Kelly for Gov!!

Probably the same people who would describe liberalism as equating to marxism.

Are you implying that my posts about NH generally aren’t objective? :P I’ll admit that I’d love to see Sununu lose to Molly Kelly or whoever they put up because I don’t want him to run for Senate against Shaheen or Hassan (contrary to what all the “experts” think, he’d never manage to win a federal race in NH, but I’m sure the incompetent NRSC would waste an unbelievably large amount of resources there anyway, hurting other Republicans across the country in the process, including in my state). The fact that I don’t consider him some unbeatable juggernaut has nothing at all to do with my hatred of the state or any preconceived opinions and/or attitudes I might have. I’d be absolutely shocked if Sununu managed to replicate Baker’s success — keep in mind that their last Republican governor was voted out of office in a GOP wave year (2004), and even in 2016, Sununu only managed to eke out a narrow victory in spite of the R-friendly national environment, his name recognition and his weak opponent. As far as his ideology and personality are concerned, yeah, I’m pretty much with you on this one. Apparently he’s taken several steps to combat animal cruelty, but that’s about the only good thing there is to say about him or his smug supporters.

Even if you deny that NH has any inherent Democratic tilt whatsoever and believe that it’s an elastic swing/Tossup state susceptive to wild swings, wouldn’t that still make Sununu at least somewhat vulnerable given that 2018 is shaping up to be quite favorable for Dems? I still remember all the hype around “GOP rising star” Kelly Ayotte (who you might remember was considered a stronger candidate than Johnson/Toomey/etc. who could definitely survive a slight/modest Clinton victory, making NH THE bellwether state not only in the presidential race but also in the race for control of the Senate), and we all know how that turned out. Obviously this is a gubernatorial and not a federal race and I won’t rate it Safe D after I underestimated Sununu in 2016 (Likely D seems like an appropriate rating for now, tbh), but I can’t help but think that Sununu is as overrated as Ayotte — sure, he could keep it close, but the road is littered with supposedly “strong” Republican candidates who looked unbeatable at some point but were swept away in a Democratic or even neutral year because they just couldn’t overcome their state’s strong and/or stubborn Democratic lean. I think we’ll see basically the same here.

I just don't know! :*

Thanks for your take!

Jeanne Shaheen endorses Molly Kelly.

https://twitter.com/wmur9/status/991693179631095809?s=21

Of course she's endorsing in this race, Sununu is a threat for her reelection campaign in 2020. But, Shaheen is favored anyways.

Chris should hold off and take down Taxin Hassan in 2022

If Trump somehow pulls off re-election in 2020 or Pence magically gets elected of his own accord in 2020, I'll agree with you.  Otherwise, no.

Trump won't win the 279 blue wall states WI, PA, NV, VA, CO, NV and NM and Sununu is very much vulnerable. But, Marchard is a better candidate.

I think I found MT Treasurer's favorite ad.

They tried to make me Sununu, but I said Su-No-No-No:

https://youtu.be/8HVJwsMV2Kc

Interesting, the court does throw her a bone on this issue, but I still personally give the lean to Sununu. But NH is prone to massive flips, and polling on this race is scarce. NH Ds also have an extremely powerful machine/GOTV effort up north that saved a senator in 2014. If polling shows a shift, Ill move it to tossup, but right now, Sununu has the advantage.

I believe that Sununu has put himself in danger territory with that stunt he just pulled. I'm not saying he's leading Kelly now, but I don't believe he's as safe as others may think.

Sununu is safe for another term, when Shaheen is on the ballot in the Fall of 2020, then the Dems can think about taking him out, but he should win about 6 or more.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/us/new-hampshire-jeff-woodburn-arrest-abuse.html?rref=us&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=U.S.&pgtype=Multimedia

Just posting this for MT Treasurer's commentary, lol.

Sununu probably's reelected, but Dems will pick up legislative seats

Could there be a backlash from Angry NH Women over this, like there was in 2000 with Monica Lewinsky which delivered the state to Dubya?

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-kelly-outraises-sununu-since-june-but-governor-leads-in-cash-on-hand/22805403 (https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-kelly-outraises-sununu-since-june-but-governor-leads-in-cash-on-hand/22805403)



Paging MT Treasurer

Out of all the bluer governors that can be upset aside from K.Reynolds and WI is Larry Hogan, C.Sununu and Phill Scott are propably safe until 2020.