Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Deblano on January 04, 2017, 08:09:29 PM



Title: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on January 04, 2017, 08:09:29 PM
http://thehill.com/homenews/news/312769-former-democratic-rep-will-run-for-virginia-governor-report
Quote
Former Virginia Rep. Tom Perriello (D) will run for governor of the state in what could be one of the highest-profile elections of 2017, the New York Times reports.

Perriello, who served in the House from 2009 to 2011 and is a friend of President Obama, could potentially end up challenging Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam, the party's favored candidate, in the Democratic primary.

According to the Times, outgoing Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) hoped to clear the field for Northam so he would have a head start in fundraising and organization over Republicans vying for their party's nomination.

Perriello is more progressive, while Northam is more of a moderate Democrat.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is the front-runner for the nomination.

But he faces challenges from Corey Stewart, who served as Donald Trump's campaign chairman in Virginia, and state Sen. Frank Wagner.

The coronation of Ralph Northam has come to a screeching halt lol.

Hopefully Northam ends up winning the primaries.


*** mod edit (6/14/2017): changed title again for general election in Nov


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 04, 2017, 08:23:18 PM
I'd like to take this time to remind people that Ralph Northam threatened to join the Republicans in 2009 before he was talked out of it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Miles on January 04, 2017, 08:24:37 PM
I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on January 04, 2017, 08:26:40 PM
Perriello all the way! Reminder: Northam was this close to flipping parties.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 04, 2017, 08:28:39 PM
I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 

Any reason?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on January 04, 2017, 08:50:05 PM
He's got my support.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 04, 2017, 08:55:18 PM
Aides to Warner and Kaine say that both Senators still back Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 04, 2017, 09:01:20 PM
Perriello all the way! Reminder: Northam was this close to flipping parties.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Mike Thick on January 04, 2017, 09:04:57 PM
Perriello all the way! Reminder: Northam was this close to flipping parties.

Another reminder: if he had done so, it would have flipped Virginia State Senate from Democratic to Republican control.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 04, 2017, 09:06:26 PM
Does Perriello have any major electability issues?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: LabourJersey on January 04, 2017, 09:24:18 PM
This is going to make the VA gubernatorial race a whole lot more interesting!

I hope Perriello wins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: LabourJersey on January 04, 2017, 09:25:50 PM
This is going to make the VA gubernatorial race a whole lot more interesting!

I hope Perriello wins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on January 04, 2017, 09:55:53 PM
Northam has never lost an election and he was elected statewide with 55% of the vote, the highest of any Democrat in 2013. His military and medical background is also a huge plus in Virginia especially in the Hampton Roads area. I don't really see how Perriello is remotely a stronger candidate than Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 04, 2017, 09:59:41 PM
Both would probably be favored against Gillespie (or whoever wins the GOP nomination), but this is still Northam's race to lose.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 04, 2017, 10:00:23 PM
Aides to Warner and Kaine say that both Senators still back Northam.

Well, they are both centrist Democrats (Warner, moreso), so I'm not surprised.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on January 04, 2017, 10:04:14 PM
Northam has never lost an election and he was elected statewide with 55% of the vote, the highest of any Democrat in 2013. His military and medical background is also a huge plus in Virginia especially in the Hampton Roads area. I don't really see how Perriello is remotely a stronger candidate than Northam.

It helped he ran against E.W. Jackson.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 04, 2017, 10:06:23 PM
Aides to Warner and Kaine say that both Senators still back Northam.

Well, they are both centrist Democrats (Warner, moreso), so I'm not surprised.

Kaine is a pretty average Democrat, but he's obviously establishment.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on January 04, 2017, 10:06:27 PM
Does Perriello have any major electability issues?

Not any that I've heard about him, although it's been a while (7 years) since he ran a campaign, so he might not be as polished as Northam might be.

My issue with Northam mainly is that he's totally anonymous for someone who won handily in 2013. A Quinnipiac poll from last month  (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/va/va12142016_Vq417ctb.pdf/)showed 64% of Dems had no opinion of him, and while he could make this up, he doesn't strike me as a particularly dynamic candidate.

That being said, I'm not buying that VA is Titanium D in all races. I'll wait to see if Dems can replicate Clinton's margins in NOVA before I say that. Gillespie is no joke either, so I just want the most electable candidate, which Northam very well may be. I'll have to see what develops in the next few months.

Both would probably be favored against Gillespie (or whoever wins the GOP nomination), but this is still Northam's race to lose.

I'm not sure, a PPP poll from July 2015 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_71715.pdf) showed Mark Herring leading Northam 33-9 in the primary. Northam hasn't really done anything since then to raise his name ID.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on January 04, 2017, 10:12:15 PM
I think Northam's military background is a huge plus, as we saw with JBE in LA and Kander in MO & Greitens, veterans make great political candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 04, 2017, 10:13:52 PM
Another point: If Perriello wins the Governor's race, he is immediately my hands-down favorite for 2020.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on January 04, 2017, 10:17:21 PM
Another point: If Perriello wins the Governor's race, he is immediately my hands-down favorite for 2020.

I think this is his only real selling point over Northam, personally


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on January 04, 2017, 10:19:01 PM
Northam has never lost an election and he was elected statewide with 55% of the vote, the highest of any Democrat in 2013. His military and medical background is also a huge plus in Virginia especially in the Hampton Roads area. I don't really see how Perriello is remotely a stronger candidate than Northam.

Northam's 2013 opponent was a total loon who really should've been beat by much more. The feeling at the time was less "wow Northam's really electable" and more "wtf why isn't Northam campaigning more this kook is waaaay too close for comfort."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 04, 2017, 10:19:11 PM

Both would probably be favored against Gillespie (or whoever wins the GOP nomination), but this is still Northam's race to lose.

I'm not sure, a PPP poll from July 2015 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_71715.pdf) showed Mark Herring leading Northam 33-9 in the primary. Northam hasn't really done anything since then to raise his name ID.

Endorsements aren't everything, but Northam does currently enjoy the support of three former Governors/two current Senators, as well as that same popular Mark Herring. Hopefully we get a poll of this match-up soon. I suppose involvement on Obama's part for Perriello could be a variable, since Perriello was a big ally of his in Congress.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 04, 2017, 10:50:13 PM
Another point: If Perriello wins the Governor's race, he is immediately my hands-down favorite for 2020.

I think this is his only real selling point over Northam, personally

"Vote for me for Governor so that I can run for President in 2020!"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on January 04, 2017, 11:46:23 PM
Perriello was one of the few Democrats that went down actually fighting in 2010 and never hid his support for President Obama. For that reason alone he has my support.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 04, 2017, 11:58:19 PM
Perriello was one of the few Democrats that went down actually fighting in 2010 and never hid his support for President Obama. For that reason alone he has my support.

People will say "That was dumb of him because he ended up losing". But Glenn Nye tried the exact opposite strategy in a more D-friendly district than Perriello's, and got absolutely crushed while Perriello lost by about 3 points.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on January 05, 2017, 12:04:32 AM
Quote
In 2009, Northam — a self-described "conservative on fiscal issues and liberal on social issues"[4]

Ugh.

Win this, Perriello!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on January 05, 2017, 12:06:24 AM
Periello voted for the Stupak amendment and was endorsed by the NRA, I don't think he will be successful in outflanking Northam on the left. Women's group and gun control orgs will obviously line up behind Ralph.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Xing on January 05, 2017, 12:25:55 AM
Glad to see that this won't just be a coronation for Northam, and I will be hoping for Perriello, though I expect Northam to win. Still, it'll be good for Northam to prove himself in a primary first, before going up in a general election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Cubby on January 05, 2017, 01:00:01 AM
Perriello was one of the few Democrats that went down actually fighting in 2010 and never hid his support for President Obama. For that reason alone he has my support.

Perriello was brave to do that, I remember how everyone else was running away from Obama that year. I've wondered why he hasn't run for anything else, glad to see he's coming back. This is great news! Perriello 2017.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 05, 2017, 01:15:13 AM
Perriello was one of the few Democrats that went down actually fighting in 2010 and never hid his support for President Obama. For that reason alone he has my support.

Perriello was brave to do that, I remember how everyone else was running away from Obama that year. I've wondered why he hasn't run for anything else, glad to see he's coming back. This is great news! Perriello 2017.

It's not like he vanished off the face of the Earth. He ran CPAC for a while, and replaced Russ Feingold as an envoy to the Congo.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 05, 2017, 01:42:07 AM
Good. A bitter democratic primary can only help Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 05, 2017, 02:17:44 AM
Good. A bitter democratic primary can only help Gillespie.

Who says it will be bitter? Also, Trump won probably the most bitter primary of all time, and then won the general in a major upset.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Blair on January 05, 2017, 03:05:07 AM
I first heard about Perriello on the candidate confessional podcast; and he really stood out on there, for the fact that he ran a very principled, and worthy campaign; even thought he lost it's better to lose that way rather than making a complete fool of yourself trying to run away from every position you've held.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: arjavrawal on January 05, 2017, 03:56:48 AM
Hey, anyone remember what happened to the LAST guy who was envoy to the Congo? Ya know, BEFORE Perriello? He came back to run statewide...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 05, 2017, 07:58:55 AM
He's in. https://twitter.com/tomperriello/status/816987577676922880


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on January 05, 2017, 09:57:04 AM
Northam aligns more with my own views but Perriello has more long term upside, IMO. Also - it's not like Perriello is some progressive gadfly who can't win outside of a liberal enclave. The guy won a very conservative downstate district and narrowly lost in 2010. He had an A from the NRA after all.

Honestly both these candidates would be good for talking to non base voters. It's just a question of whether rural voters or Hampton Roads voters are more important


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 05, 2017, 10:19:56 AM
Ugh. I like Perriello, but Northam has my complete support. I have met Northam multiple times, and he is going to be a great governor. Perriello should most definitely run in 2021 or run for Congress again.

The idea that he is a progressive hero is pretty ridiculous. He has been a great advocate for wonderful programs like ACA and the Stimulus which led to him losing his re-election. But just because of that doesn't mean this race will be one between a Sanders and a Webb. They are really not that dissimilar.

Northam will win this, but I do not under-estimate that Perriello will be a strong challenger.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 05, 2017, 10:59:24 AM
Periello voted for the Stupak amendment and was endorsed by the NRA, I don't think he will be successful in outflanking Northam on the left. Women's group and gun control orgs will obviously line up behind Ralph.

Virginia is a pretty centrist/center-right state, so if you are a progressive, be prepared to be disappointed.

Remember, one of our Senators is Mark Warner. Virginia is nowhere near as progressive as Maryland.

Of course, as a centrist, I have no issue with this. :P 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on January 05, 2017, 11:19:16 AM
Nice to see a contested D primary. There goes the Democrats' cleared field advantage. I still think the Democrats are favored to hold this one, though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on January 05, 2017, 12:11:20 PM
Go Perriello! I'm hoping for an upset here in the Dem primary, and it'd be great to see "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Ralph Northam go down.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 05, 2017, 12:16:25 PM
Nice to see a contested D primary. There goes the Democrats' cleared field advantage. I still think the Democrats are favored to hold this one, though.

Agreed. Republicans winning VA would be quite an upset, to say the least. Lean/Likely D.

An upset from our perspective, sure. But for all we know the Republican could have a solid polling lead in late October.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on January 05, 2017, 12:53:50 PM
If Perriello wins the governor race this year then I can honestly see his name in the 2020 race. I can't say the same for Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on January 05, 2017, 01:59:10 PM
Go Perriello! I'm hoping for an upset here in the Dem primary, and it'd be great to see "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Ralph Northam go down.
What kind of fiscal conservative is Ralph Northam? Is he really that conservative on fiscal issues, or is he just conservative by Democratic standards? I'd assume the latter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 05, 2017, 02:00:35 PM
Go Perriello! I'm hoping for an upset here in the Dem primary, and it'd be great to see "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Ralph Northam go down.
What kind of fiscal conservative is Ralph Northam? Is he really that conservative on fiscal issues, or is he just conservative by Democratic standards? I'd assume the latter.

Fiscal conservative is a meaningless buzzword that doesn't count for anything, so it doesn't really matter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Suburbia on January 05, 2017, 04:21:38 PM
I like Ralph Northam and Tom Perriello. Both would be good candidates. Northam would be a good Cabinet secretary in a future Democratic administration.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 05, 2017, 04:25:10 PM
Go Perriello! I'm hoping for an upset here in the Dem primary, and it'd be great to see "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Ralph Northam go down.
What kind of fiscal conservative is Ralph Northam? Is he really that conservative on fiscal issues, or is he just conservative by Democratic standards? I'd assume the latter.

I hate the term "fiscal conservative" in general: It's so vague.

I just assume that Northam is a conservative democrat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on January 05, 2017, 05:29:26 PM
I feel like being anti-choice outside of the deep South is a non starter in most Dem primaries, it is litmus test for a lot of people. Beyond voting for ACA & Cap & trade I am not really not sure what makes Perriello some sort of progressive champion akin to Bernie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on January 05, 2017, 05:38:30 PM
I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 

Change your avatar then.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 05, 2017, 05:44:45 PM
I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 

Change your avatar then.

To what? Miles is a real LA Dem. :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on January 05, 2017, 05:47:56 PM
Even before Northam was the "annointed one" I was very reluctant in my support of him because I thought he was a potential turncoat and representative of a Virginia Democrat that doesn't really represent the state anymore. I think Democrats need these kind of primary fights - the GOP had so many primary fights and now they control almost every lever of power imaginable. Why are Democrats so afraid of any sort of contest?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 05, 2017, 06:00:34 PM
WH not ruling out an endorsement, praised his candidacy. (https://twitter.com/UVAMaggie/status/817134393391251456)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on January 05, 2017, 06:44:12 PM
I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam.  

Change your avatar then.

First of all, Northam is not a Dixiecrat or anything like that. He's not even as conservative as Webb for that matter. He's a typical VA Dem, but further, Perriello isn't even some "progressive hero". He just happened to fight for Obamacare and the Obama administration when it wasn't popular to do so.

Also, you have a Green avatar, lol. Why do you get to insinuate that Miles is too conservative to be a Democrat, if by your own admission you don't fit in the Democratic spectrum either? You should be aware that VA is not a progressive bastion, exemplified by the slew of centrist politicians, as well as Bernie getting crushed in the primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on January 05, 2017, 07:04:07 PM
I am genuinely curious as to why Perriello is considered progressive.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 05, 2017, 07:09:01 PM
I am genuinely curious as to why Perriello is considered progressive.

Because apparently from now on, every democratic primary race will be compared to the 2016 Democratic Primaries.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 05, 2017, 07:22:03 PM
I am genuinely curious as to why Perriello is considered progressive.

Less progressive and more populist, which is what I think the base really wants more than anything. I would kinda compare him to Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown.

Also, dude ran CAP.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: White Trash on January 05, 2017, 07:26:30 PM
Perriello seems like a great candidate. If this guy can unseat Virgil Goode while still maintaining some fairly progressive views, then he should be able to crush almost any Republican.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 05, 2017, 07:39:23 PM
Northam seems like a better fit for the stereotype of what Virginia is like, but he also seems kind of awful. Perriello, while I wish he was further left on social issues, at least sems like a real Democrat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 05, 2017, 07:39:55 PM
Perriello seems like a great candidate. If this guy can unseat Virgil Goode while still maintaining some fairly progressive views, then he should be able to crush almost any Republican.

You make it sound like Virgil Goode was a strong incumbent in a heavily R district, as opposed to a racist PoS in a GOP-leaning but not totally out of reach district.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on January 05, 2017, 08:09:19 PM
Good. A bitter democratic primary can only help Gillespie.

Perriello personally calling Northam to let him know he's entering the race doesn't scream "bitter primary" to me.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on January 05, 2017, 09:14:23 PM
A reminder to people calling Perriello "conservative" - he was in an R+5 district. I think standing for some of the things he stood for was pretty brave considering that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 05, 2017, 09:42:27 PM
A reminder to people calling Perriello "conservative" - he was in an R+5 district. I think standing for some of the things he stood for was pretty brave considering that.

Agreed


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 05, 2017, 10:24:37 PM
A reminder to people calling Perriello "conservative" - he was in an R+5 district. I think standing for some of the things he stood for was pretty brave considering that.

Not calling him conservative, per say... But voting against a woman's right to choose and getting an 'A' rating and the endorsement of the NRA twice, doesn't scream progressive hero, which he is being framed to be.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on January 05, 2017, 10:54:02 PM
I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 

Change your avatar then.

To what? Miles is a real LA Dem. :P
I think he meant Miles should change it to D-VA.

But he's entitled to use whatever avatar he wants.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Cubby on January 05, 2017, 11:00:26 PM
It's not like he vanished off the face of the Earth. He ran CPAC for a while, and replaced Russ Feingold as an envoy to the Congo.

Since I don't often hear any news from Kinshasa, as far as I knew he had vanished from the face of the Earth.

Ugh. I like Perriello, but Northam has my complete support. I have met Northam multiple times, and he is going to be a great governor. Perriello should most definitely run in 2021 or run for Congress again.

The idea that he is a progressive hero is pretty ridiculous. He has been a great advocate for wonderful programs like ACA and the Stimulus which led to him losing his re-election. But just because of that doesn't mean this race will be one between a Sanders and a Webb. They are really not that dissimilar.

Northam will win this, but I do not under-estimate that Perriello will be a strong challenger.

Does the fact that no one outside of Virginia has ever heard of this Northam person enter into the equation? Perriello is Democratic Party Royalty. 2010 was a bloodbath and his near win was one of the few bright spots on that horrid night. I wish he had run for something sooner, but its only been 6 years, he still has a bright future ahead of him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on January 06, 2017, 02:15:38 AM
I am genuinely curious as to why Perriello is considered progressive.

For me, at least, this video/policy statement (https://www.facebook.com/TomPerriello/videos/10155392027145400/) is a pretty good summation of why I think that he's One Of Us.

His economic analysis is spot on. Like, I'm always genuinely shocked by the number of Dems who aren't even willing to say that globalization hurts people, or automation isn't *about* to hurt people.

Also, tbh, gun control isn't a Prog be-all-end-all issue, it's a Liberal be-all-end-all issue. And that's a pretty hot take, but I'll stand by it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: arjavrawal on January 06, 2017, 03:19:33 AM
You guys have to remember he won because he ran against Virgil goddamn Goode.

That being said, he genuinely seems like a nice guy and I'm very interested by his videos that he posted today.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: anthonyjg on January 06, 2017, 10:28:40 AM
You guys have to remember he won because he ran against Virgil goddamn Goode.

That being said, he genuinely seems like a nice guy and I'm very interested by his videos that he posted today.
To be fair, he did almost win again in the 2010 GOP wave.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 06, 2017, 11:43:00 AM
It's not like he vanished off the face of the Earth. He ran CPAC for a while, and replaced Russ Feingold as an envoy to the Congo.

Since I don't often hear any news from Kinshasa, as far as I knew he had vanished from the face of the Earth.

Ugh. I like Perriello, but Northam has my complete support. I have met Northam multiple times, and he is going to be a great governor. Perriello should most definitely run in 2021 or run for Congress again.

The idea that he is a progressive hero is pretty ridiculous. He has been a great advocate for wonderful programs like ACA and the Stimulus which led to him losing his re-election. But just because of that doesn't mean this race will be one between a Sanders and a Webb. They are really not that dissimilar.

Northam will win this, but I do not under-estimate that Perriello will be a strong challenger.

Does the fact that no one outside of Virginia has ever heard of this Northam person enter into the equation? Perriello is Democratic Party Royalty. 2010 was a bloodbath and his near win was one of the few bright spots on that horrid night. I wish he had run for something sooner, but its only been 6 years, he still has a bright future ahead of him.

No... It really doesn't. Being "known" to a select group of Dems in Washington, doesn't give you an edge over being the popular Lt. Governor of the state you are running in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 06, 2017, 02:37:40 PM
Perriello repudiates his Stupak amendment vote. (https://www.facebook.com/TomPerriello/posts/10155393796305400)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 06, 2017, 02:56:41 PM
I think I may have underestimated Perriello a bit. This could be a serious fight.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 06, 2017, 04:53:08 PM
Northam welcomes Primary Challenge (http://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/lt-gov-ralph-northam-welcomes-competition-in-democratic-gubernatorial-primary/article_40940c2b-5317-5333-a84f-daf5437091aa.html). Amazing man. Go Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on January 06, 2017, 05:34:47 PM
Perriello repudiates his Stupak amendment vote. (https://www.facebook.com/TomPerriello/posts/10155393796305400)
I wouldn't be surprised if soon (maybe even with the FLL Airport Shooting) he'll also repudiate his pro-NRA record (the group endorsed him over Hurt in 2010).
This primary will be fun to watch and follow, especially with not much else going on.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 06, 2017, 05:49:14 PM
Perriello repudiates his Stupak amendment vote. (https://www.facebook.com/TomPerriello/posts/10155393796305400)
I wouldn't be surprised if soon (maybe even with the FLL Airport Shooting) he'll also repudiate his pro-NRA record (the group endorsed him over Hurt in 2010).
This primary will be fun to watch and follow, especially with not much else going on.

He already did that in 2013. (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/the-nras-no-compromise-strategy-090924?o=1)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: VPH on January 06, 2017, 08:52:37 PM
I think his pivot to the left on abortion is regrettable but understandable.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 06, 2017, 09:02:49 PM
Northam welcomes Primary Challenge (http://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/lt-gov-ralph-northam-welcomes-competition-in-democratic-gubernatorial-primary/article_40940c2b-5317-5333-a84f-daf5437091aa.html). Amazing man. Go Northam.

Kudos to Northam. Very classy! :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 06, 2017, 09:24:09 PM
Perriello elaborates on abortion to HuffPo, says he's always been pro-choice. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tom-perriello-virginia-governor-abortion-rights-stupak-pitts_us_586ff6c8e4b02b5f8588c4db)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 06, 2017, 10:07:32 PM
Really heading left. I mean, I hope people get the hypocrisy (those that were anti-Clinton progressives for flip-flopping/"evolving") of this. I am very glad he is coming to the correct side, lucky for him it's when it may cost him the election otherwise...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Intell on January 06, 2017, 10:41:55 PM
Yuhh, still support Perriello though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Mehmentum on January 06, 2017, 10:58:42 PM
I'm 100% in support in Perriello.  He stood by Obama and Obamacare when it was unpopular to do so, in a conservative district nonetheless, and almost won. 

He's also the kind of Democrat who may be able to improve in rural areas (where Clinton and McAuliffe tanked).  The only question is if he can hold on to their gains in NoVa, but considering that Donald Trump is president, it shouldn't be too much of an ask.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on January 06, 2017, 11:13:37 PM
Perriello repudiates his Stupak amendment vote. (https://www.facebook.com/TomPerriello/posts/10155393796305400)
I wouldn't be surprised if soon (maybe even with the FLL Airport Shooting) he'll also repudiate his pro-NRA record (the group endorsed him over Hurt in 2010).
This primary will be fun to watch and follow, especially with not much else going on.

He already did that in 2013. (http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/the-nras-no-compromise-strategy-090924?o=1)
Oh, wow. I did not know that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on January 06, 2017, 11:45:49 PM
I think Northam will surprise a lot of people, the guy knows how to win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on January 07, 2017, 02:25:24 AM
Nice to see a contested D primary. There goes the Democrats' cleared field advantage. I still think the Democrats are favored to hold this one, though.

Agreed. Republicans winning VA would be quite an upset, to say the least. Lean/Likely D.
NH ---> VA means GOP will win this election too ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Blair on January 07, 2017, 08:40:06 AM
'Part of the problem is that we often take this What’s The Matter With Kansas? approach that assumes that people are reactionary and stupid and that we just need to convince them that they’re going to make more money under our plan' Perriello in 2010.

I naturally want to endorse someone who says this- as much as people want to convince themselves it's all economic, it's frankly not


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 07, 2017, 10:53:25 AM
Really heading left. I mean, I hope people get the hypocrisy (those that were anti-Clinton progressives for flip-flopping/"evolving") of this. I am very glad he is coming to the correct side, lucky for him it's when it may cost him the election otherwise...

Do you know of any specific people who opposed Clinton for flip-flopping and are now supporting Perriello?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 07, 2017, 05:34:22 PM
Really heading left. I mean, I hope people get the hypocrisy (those that were anti-Clinton progressives for flip-flopping/"evolving") of this. I am very glad he is coming to the correct side, lucky for him it's when it may cost him the election otherwise...

Do you know of any specific people who opposed Clinton for flip-flopping and are now supporting Perriello?

Not personally, no, but my point is that her "flip-flopping" was a MAJOR reason that many many people didn't vote for her in the primaries, and even the GE. My hope is that those people see their hypocrisy in this race, and take that issue to the voting booths with them.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on January 09, 2017, 11:12:29 AM
Endorsing Perriello, but will be very happy with Northam if he wins, which I am expecting he will.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on January 09, 2017, 12:42:14 PM
Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 09, 2017, 01:03:52 PM
Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on January 09, 2017, 02:40:40 PM
Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?

Whatever an establishment whore does in their spare time, I guess.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 09, 2017, 03:16:17 PM
Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?

Whatever an establishment whore does in their spare time, I guess.

Do you ever stop being awful?

Glad Perriello is doing this, I just saw Lt. Gov. Northam at a phonebank/fundraiser on Saturday helping do some calls for Tuesday's election, he was also at Del. Patrick Hope's "Pancakes with Pat" charity and local issues meetup that day also.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on January 09, 2017, 03:20:20 PM
Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?

Whatever an establishment whore does in their spare time, I guess.

 Much edge!  So liberal!!!!  Very brave!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on January 09, 2017, 06:12:42 PM
Apparently Perriello has been out campaigning for candidates in tomorrow's special elections

Hmm and what has Northam been doing?

Whatever an establishment whore does in their spare time, I guess.

Do you ever stop being awful?

Glad Perriello is doing this, I just saw Lt. Gov. Northam at a phonebank/fundraiser on Saturday helping do some calls for Tuesday's election, he was also at Del. Patrick Hope's "Pancakes with Pat" charity and local issues meetup that day also.

Good! They should both be involved in those kinds of activities


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on January 09, 2017, 07:03:19 PM
I think the idea of trying to categorize these two into rival camps a la Bernie/Hillary is misplaced. Both seem like good choices that care about the state and the state party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on January 09, 2017, 07:08:37 PM
ShadowofTheWave is just a troll who keeps appearing as different annoying characters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 09, 2017, 10:22:08 PM
ShadowofTheWave is just a troll who keeps appearing as different annoying characters.

Each one, somehow worse and more degrading than the last!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 13, 2017, 07:53:39 PM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: libertpaulian on January 13, 2017, 10:35:51 PM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)

Makes any crossover appeal he had in his old district go away, but I doubt that hampers his ability to win if he got the nomination. He doesn't need rural support, as HRC's win showed, so long as he can win NOVA by 25+ and do well in the Hampton Roads.
There are gun owners even in NOVA.  Plus, gun control isn't a motivator for Dem voters, as shown in recent elections.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 13, 2017, 10:53:48 PM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)

Bad idea. Virginia loves their guns.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on January 14, 2017, 11:48:56 AM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)

Bad idea. Virginia loves their guns.

Didn't Governor McAuliffe recently sign some gun control? His numbers seem to be fine.

Yep, last we checked, Governor McAuliffe has a 53% approval rating.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 14, 2017, 12:02:51 PM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)

Bad idea. Virginia loves their guns.

Didn't Governor McAuliffe recently sign some gun control? His numbers seem to be fine.

Yep, last we checked, Governor McAuliffe has a 53% approval rating.

It was EXTREMELY weaksauce, and was basically crafted by lobbyists from the NRA. It did put a couple extra provisions for important things like background checks, but at the cost of repealing a lot of the work done against the gun lobby by AG Herring.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: mds32 on January 16, 2017, 12:19:22 PM
Northam has never lost an election and he was elected statewide with 55% of the vote, the highest of any Democrat in 2013. His military and medical background is also a huge plus in Virginia especially in the Hampton Roads area. I don't really see how Perriello is remotely a stronger candidate than Northam.

It helped he ran against E.W. Jackson.

Very true, Gillespie will be a much tougher candidate to defeat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Frodo on January 16, 2017, 12:21:05 PM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)

Bad idea. Virginia loves their guns.

Didn't Governor McAuliffe recently sign some gun control? His numbers seem to be fine.

Yep, last we checked, Governor McAuliffe has a 53% approval rating.

It was EXTREMELY weaksauce, and was basically crafted by lobbyists from the NRA. It did put a couple extra provisions for important things like background checks, but at the cost of repealing a lot of the work done against the gun lobby by AG Herring.

And that is why McAuliffe's approvals weren't hurt by the agreement.

This isn't Maryland.  


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on January 16, 2017, 01:07:10 PM
Perreilo voted for Cap n Trade when it didn't have a lot of support, called it  a National Security issue & said he was ready to lose an election over his values. He also advocated for more infra spending in the Stimulus. So I guess he is probably less of a centrist comparatively & he had to run in conservative areas.

There is still a lot of upside & potential gains for Dems in VA, especially in rural areas.  



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 16, 2017, 04:44:46 PM
Perriello is zooming left on guns, calling the NRA nutjobs and promising to push gun control as governor.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/once-a-rated-by-nra-va-gubernatorial-candidate-calls-group-nut-job-extremists/2017/01/13/c2a0da04-d9bf-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.cf90b6fbf970)

Bad idea. Virginia loves their guns.

Didn't Governor McAuliffe recently sign some gun control? His numbers seem to be fine.

Yep, last we checked, Governor McAuliffe has a 53% approval rating.

It was EXTREMELY weaksauce, and was basically crafted by lobbyists from the NRA. It did put a couple extra provisions for important things like background checks, but at the cost of repealing a lot of the work done against the gun lobby by AG Herring.

And that is why McAuliffe's approvals weren't hurt by the agreement.

This isn't Maryland.  

Thank God.

If you are in favor of super-tough gun laws, please move to Maryland instead of NoVa.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 21, 2017, 05:42:07 PM
Northam attended the Women's March today.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on January 21, 2017, 05:45:09 PM
Northam attended the Women's March today.

YESS! So happy we have true leaders like Northam to do this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Donerail on January 21, 2017, 06:36:33 PM
Northam attended the Women's March today.
As did Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on January 22, 2017, 04:02:00 PM
Would Northam be considered a Conservative Democrat?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Young Conservative on January 22, 2017, 09:19:58 PM
Would Northam be considered a Conservative Democrat?
I think "New Democrat" is a better term. He reminds me of Evan Bayh politically or maybe Bill clitnon.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 23, 2017, 07:29:15 PM

I saw someone collecting signatures for Perriello at the Women's March.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: BuckeyeNut on January 23, 2017, 08:09:56 PM

I saw someone collecting signatures for Perriello at the Women's March.
Hopefully their petitions don't get thrown out for collecting non-VA sigs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on January 23, 2017, 09:03:31 PM

I saw someone collecting signatures for Perriello at the Women's March.
Hopefully their petitions don't get thrown out for collecting non-VA sigs.

The guy was specifically asking for people from Virginia, so unless someone lied they should be good.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Donerail on January 23, 2017, 09:38:21 PM

I saw someone collecting signatures for Perriello at the Women's March.
Hopefully their petitions don't get thrown out for collecting non-VA sigs.
When I collected ballot signatures in FL (for a mayoral election, no less) we checked them through VAN to verify they were legit before we turned them in. I imagine a Senate campaign will have something at least as effective at filtering out the bad signatures.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Enduro on January 24, 2017, 10:14:45 PM
Who?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez on January 25, 2017, 07:34:25 AM
Another point: If Perriello wins the Governor's race, he is immediately my hands-down favorite for 2020.

I think this is his only real selling point over Northam, personally

Perriello's been out of public view for a long time now.  That usually doesn't auger well.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on January 25, 2017, 12:59:06 PM
Another point: If Perriello wins the Governor's race, he is immediately my hands-down favorite for 2020.

I think this is his only real selling point over Northam, personally

Perriello's been out of public view for a long time now.  That usually doesn't auger well.

He gets a full year in the spotlight if he wins before he has to declare. Plus, he has a lot of built up goodwill from prog activists.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 06, 2017, 12:28:12 PM
Fundraising this year: Perriello $1.1M, Northam $340k.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-tom-perriello-says-he-raised-11-million-a-month-into-va-governor-campaign/2017/02/06/4c0accac-ec79-11e6-9662-6eedf1627882_story.html?utm_term=.5ac404e1b4a8)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on February 06, 2017, 12:35:03 PM
Fundraising this year: Perriello $1.1M, Northam $340k.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-tom-perriello-says-he-raised-11-million-a-month-into-va-governor-campaign/2017/02/06/4c0accac-ec79-11e6-9662-6eedf1627882_story.html?utm_term=.5ac404e1b4a8)

Impressive, but Northam still has a large war chest at his disposal (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-ralph-northam-has-big-cash-edge-in-virginia-governors-race/2017/01/18/3782d738-dda2-11e6-918c-99ede3c8cafa_story.html?utm_term=.0757e6c14d0f).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on February 06, 2017, 09:56:04 PM
Fundraising this year: Perriello $1.1M, Northam $340k.  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-tom-perriello-says-he-raised-11-million-a-month-into-va-governor-campaign/2017/02/06/4c0accac-ec79-11e6-9662-6eedf1627882_story.html?utm_term=.5ac404e1b4a8)

Money doesn't determine a race alone (*cough* 2016 election *cough*), but things could get tighter than what we expected.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on February 07, 2017, 01:58:27 PM
Perriello hires people from the Sanders and Clinton campaigns:

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on February 07, 2017, 02:10:12 PM
Quote
Ralph Northam ‏@RalphNortham  2h
2 hours ago
More

Here's a fact every Virginia voter should know about Betsy DeVos:

Her family has given $100,000 to Ed Gillespie's gubernatorial campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on February 08, 2017, 09:58:57 AM
Perriello hires people from the Sanders and Clinton campaigns:

()
That is a friggin dream team.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: twinpines on February 09, 2017, 02:53:11 AM
Perriello is off to a good start but I still think Northam has the edge. Northam should no well in the economically centrist NOVA suburbs. I personally prefer Gillespie, but if a democrat is going to win, I'd rather have Perriello over Northam. Also think Northam is the stronger candidate since he can run up the margins in battleground NOVA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on February 09, 2017, 05:57:25 PM
Perriello is off to a good start but I still think Northam has the edge. Northam should no well in the economically centrist NOVA suburbs. I personally prefer Gillespie, but if a democrat is going to win, I'd rather have Perriello over Northam. Also think Northam is the stronger candidate since he can run up the margins in battleground NOVA.

Honestly, I think Perriello is starting to gain a lot of ground over Northam. A lot of the buzz surrounding this race is about the former rather than the latter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 10, 2017, 12:35:28 PM
Macker calls out Perriello on pipelines. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW83RhKh-8U)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on February 15, 2017, 01:42:14 PM
Perriello foot in mouth..

http://wavy.com/2017/02/15/democratic-candidate-apologizes-for-sept-11-comparison/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on February 15, 2017, 02:03:05 PM
Perriello foot in mouth..

http://wavy.com/2017/02/15/democratic-candidate-apologizes-for-sept-11-comparison/

Congrats, Governor Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on February 15, 2017, 02:05:56 PM
Perriello foot in mouth..

http://wavy.com/2017/02/15/democratic-candidate-apologizes-for-sept-11-comparison/

What a f***ing idiot.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Beet on February 15, 2017, 02:07:28 PM
Well, I guess I have to switch my support to Northam now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on February 15, 2017, 02:08:09 PM
Perriello is off to a good start but I still think Northam has the edge. Northam should no well in the economically centrist NOVA suburbs. I personally prefer Gillespie, but if a democrat is going to win, I'd rather have Perriello over Northam. Also think Northam is the stronger candidate since he can run up the margins in battleground NOVA.

I'm also likely gonna vote for Gillespie if he is the GOP nominee.

If Corey Stewart somehow is the nominee, I'm voting Democrat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on February 15, 2017, 02:16:41 PM
Eh, nowhere near a bad enough remark to make me reconsider.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 15, 2017, 03:06:46 PM
Eh, nowhere near a bad enough remark to make me reconsider.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on February 15, 2017, 04:19:42 PM
Just a unforced error by a rusty candidate, Perriello hasn't run for any office since 2010 and it shows. Northam is an experienced campaigner and has won countless tough elections, Perriello is a risky choice at this point.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on February 15, 2017, 06:10:35 PM
Perriello foot in mouth..

http://wavy.com/2017/02/15/democratic-candidate-apologizes-for-sept-11-comparison/
I mean Democrats are freaking out right now, but this isn't something you say out loud. Jesus.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on February 15, 2017, 06:41:47 PM
I can already imagine Rs running a ad with a 9/11 survivor slamming Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2017, 06:46:35 PM
To paraphrase Obama, don't say stupid sh**t (that's also obscenely offensive).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on February 15, 2017, 07:28:31 PM
Donald Fing Trump is President of the United States. this comment is nothing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on February 15, 2017, 09:19:37 PM
Donald Fing Trump is President of the United States. this comment is nothing.

Separately, what do we think Trump’s approval rating will be in VA on election day? I’m gonna guess 35% ish.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on February 15, 2017, 09:26:49 PM
Donald Fing Trump is President of the United States. this comment is nothing.

Donald Trump != Tom Perriello

Not everyone is made out of telfon.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on February 15, 2017, 09:30:53 PM
If Perriello loses, it won't be because of this. Northam was never going to be beaten in the primary IMO.

The general election is Likely D until proven otherwise. Gillespie is not a bad candidate, but I think his absolute best-case scenario is a 5000 vote loss or so. A Republican win here would be a big upset and terrible news for Democrats. But like I said, I don't think it will happen. Northam should be the next governor of VA.

While I like Gillespie, I feel that his chances would have been better if Clinton was president.

Northam, McAulliffe, and other Democrats have been capitalizing on the controversy and unpopularity of Donald Trump. For example, they participated in the women's march and spoke out against the travel ban from the baggage pickup terminal of Dulles International Airport


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on February 15, 2017, 10:44:53 PM
The comment was bad but I'm not sure if it's campaign-ending. We'll see I guess.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 16, 2017, 08:22:07 AM
If Perriello loses, it won't be because of this. Northam was never going to be beaten in the primary IMO.

The general election is Likely D until proven otherwise. Gillespie is not a bad candidate, but I think his absolute best-case scenario is a 5000 vote loss or so. A Republican win here would be a big upset and terrible news for Democrats. But like I said, I don't think it will happen. Northam should be the next governor of VA.

While I like Gillespie, I feel that his chances would have been better if Clinton was president.

Northam, McAulliffe, and other Democrats have been capitalizing on the controversy and unpopularity of Donald Trump. For example, they participated in the women's march and spoke out against the travel ban from the baggage pickup terminal of Dulles International Airport

Yeah. Trump isn't helping, but VA is so incredibly inelastic that I think any Democrat would have won there even with Clinton in the White House. Plus let's not forget that VA is a state where Clinton would have been very popular, especially NoVA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 16, 2017, 12:09:16 PM
Team Northam feeling the heat. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-va-governors-race-democrats-are-locked-in-primary-battle-to-be-the-most-progressive/2017/02/15/84b56096-e98e-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.e22b17d09255)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on February 16, 2017, 04:36:47 PM
Team Northam feeling the heat. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-va-governors-race-democrats-are-locked-in-primary-battle-to-be-the-most-progressive/2017/02/15/84b56096-e98e-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.e22b17d09255)

Yeah, after reading this I'm definitely behind Northam. Perriello seems like Tulsi Gabbard 2.0.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 16, 2017, 04:40:03 PM
Team Northam feeling the heat. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-va-governors-race-democrats-are-locked-in-primary-battle-to-be-the-most-progressive/2017/02/15/84b56096-e98e-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.e22b17d09255)

Yeah, after reading this I'm definitely behind Northam. Perriello seems like Tulsi Gabbard 2.0.

... No.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on February 16, 2017, 04:56:30 PM
Team Northam feeling the heat. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-va-governors-race-democrats-are-locked-in-primary-battle-to-be-the-most-progressive/2017/02/15/84b56096-e98e-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.e22b17d09255)

Yeah, after reading this I'm definitely behind Northam. Perriello seems like Tulsi Gabbard 2.0.

?????



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on February 16, 2017, 05:01:09 PM


Well, correct me if I'm wrong since I'm not very well-versed in state politics. Wasn't his voting record pretty disturbing in regards to the environment, abortion and gun control?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on February 16, 2017, 05:43:04 PM


Well, correct me if I'm wrong since I'm not very well-versed in state politics. Wasn't his voting record pretty disturbing in regards to the environment, abortion and gun control?

Not really (from a Dem perspective). He was anti assault weapon ban and didnt demonize gunowners which apparently means hes mr. NRA even though he's fine with background checks and other restrictions. The abortion thing was basically just him saying that as a Catholic he thought abortion was bad even though he never supported any abortion restriction I am aware of and is fine with Roe. And he voted for cap and trade.

I favor Northam over Periello in this race but in all honesty Northam is much more moderate than Periello and I am amazed at how well Northam is pretending to outflank Periello on the left.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on February 16, 2017, 05:46:31 PM


Well, correct me if I'm wrong since I'm not very well-versed in state politics. Wasn't his voting record pretty disturbing in regards to the environment, abortion and gun control?

Not really (from a Dem perspective). He was anti assault weapon ban and didnt demonize gunowners which apparently means hes mr. NRA even though he's fine with background checks and other restrictions. The abortion thing was basically just him saying that as a Catholic he thought abortion was bad even though he never supported any abortion restriction I am aware of and is fine with Roe. And he voted for cap and trade.

I favor Northam over Periello in this race but in all honesty Northam is much more moderate than Periello and I am amazed at how well Northam is pretending to outflank Periello on the left.


Ah, well, in that case I'm probably still closer to Northam, but I wouldn't mind Periello too. New York Times seems to be supporting Northam- their story really exaggarates Periello's voting record.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Suburbia on February 16, 2017, 08:19:55 PM
It will be a close Virginia Democratic primary. I wonder who Doug Wilder will endorse? His endorsement could prove critical in the Black and Latino community, including rural whites, who some of them voted for in 1989.

Perriello made a mistake with the 9/11 statement. It could hurt him with suburban voters near the Pentagon area and the military voters. Lt. Gov. Northam could win those voters in the primary, if some of them are registered Democratic.

However, if Bernie Sanders or Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton campaign in VA this fall, the Democrat could win. Perriello or Northam will tie Trump or Pence to the Va. GOP, and they will try to distance from Trump or Pence.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Türkisblau on February 17, 2017, 01:18:57 PM
It will be a close Virginia Democratic primary. I wonder who Doug Wilder will endorse? His endorsement could prove critical in the Black and Latino community, including rural whites, who some of them voted for in 1989.

Perriello made a mistake with the 9/11 statement. It could hurt him with suburban voters near the Pentagon area and the military voters. Lt. Gov. Northam could win those voters in the primary, if some of them are registered Democratic.

However, if Bernie Sanders or Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton campaign in VA this fall, the Democrat could win. Perriello or Northam will tie Trump or Pence to the Va. GOP, and they will try to distance from Trump or Pence.

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Türkisblau on February 17, 2017, 01:31:22 PM
actual response:

It will be a close Virginia Democratic primary. I wonder who Doug Wilder will endorse? His endorsement could prove critical in the Black and Latino community, including rural whites, who some of them voted for in 1989.

No one remembers Wilder and no one would care except Atlas if he endorsed.

Quote
Perriello made a mistake with the 9/11 statement. It could hurt him with suburban voters near the Pentagon area and the military voters. Lt. Gov. Northam could win those voters in the primary, if some of them are registered Democratic.

1. I doubt people will care all that much about the 9/11 comment, and if it does hurt, it will be incredibly insignificant. For that comment to get attention, Northam would have to attack him on it, which is incredibly unlikely as neither politician nor the party wants this to be an ugly primary.

2. There is no party registration in VA. Learn the bare minimum about a state before posting, you goddamn idiot.

Quote
However, if Bernie Sanders or Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton campaign in VA this fall, the Democrat could win. Perriello or Northam will tie Trump or Pence to the Va. GOP, and they will try to distance from Trump or Pence.

Um, Trump is president and the Democrat will win anyway? Sure, a couple national pols will campaign because they know that D's are likely to keep this seat and they want to be seen as helping the party even if they know that they aren't making much of a difference. A Democrat winning is not at all dependent on national figures helping them...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on February 22, 2017, 11:32:18 AM
Ben Pershing of the National Journal has a noteworthy observation:

Quote
Ben Pershing (@benpershing)

Interesting: @The_RGA hits @tomperriello almost daily & says next to nothing about @RalphNortham. Who does GOP want/expect to face? #VAGov


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 27, 2017, 07:44:04 AM
NYT profiles the race. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/26/us/virginia-governor-trump-northam-perriello.html?_r=0)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on February 27, 2017, 09:20:00 AM
Tom has a very strong environmental record & voted for many of the Clean Energy legislation & was an ally of Obama & did support the ACA. Many people called him everything from a Populist to an unapologetic progressive & he was the 1st person to rail against the Corporate establishment.

Northam voted for Bush over Gore n Kerry, even in 2004 after seeing what Bush had done with Iraq n stuff. Northam is a conservative Dem who claims to be a progressive. It is obvious the GOP is much more wary of Tom !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on February 27, 2017, 12:10:30 PM
Yeah, what is Perriello's "disturbing" record on environmental issues?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on February 27, 2017, 04:27:49 PM
Yeah, what is Perriello's "disturbing" record on environmental issues?

I think he voted for an omnibus something or other that included offshore drilling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on February 27, 2017, 05:08:42 PM
As a Virginian, I have no idea who I will vote for yet in this race assuming it become Northam vs. Gillespie.

I having a feeling I'm gonna end up voting for Northam, but who knows? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on February 27, 2017, 05:16:06 PM
Ben Pershing of the National Journal has a noteworthy observation:

Quote
Ben Pershing (@benpershing)

Interesting: @The_RGA hits @tomperriello almost daily & says next to nothing about @RalphNortham. Who does GOP want/expect to face? #VAGov

Trying to Kremlinologize the opposition always strikes me as fruitless.

Do they want to face Perriello, so they're trying to artificially raise his profile? Or do they actually see him as dangerous, so they're attempting to EITHER actually damage him OR provoke this kind of FUD on the Dem side. No matter their motivation, their action (attacking a candidate) looks the same.

And even if you can figure out their intent, your opponent isn't any smarter than you are. HRC picked her opponent this cycle. She lost. Should the GOP (all value judgements aside) have not nominated Trump because Clinton wanted to face him?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on February 27, 2017, 05:33:57 PM
The issue of Northam's Bush votes were questionable to me, but looking at Perriello's record of flip-flopping, neither side should make the past an issue. I still support Northam enthusiastically, and like Perriello lots. I look forward to their productive dialogue and hopefully both will help pull the VA Dems to their rightful victory come November.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on February 27, 2017, 08:48:39 PM
Northam seems a lot more politically disciplined than Perriello who has won one election in his entire career and that was back in 2008. And yes the 9/11 comments will matter, the RGA is ruthless they will have a Pentagon attack survivor slamming Perriello in an ad if he's the nominee.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on February 27, 2017, 09:34:26 PM
It really surprises me how nobody brings up that Northam is a doctor AND a veteran and VA is a big military state. He did very well in the 757 and did better than any Dem in the past 8 years in VA Beach. As we saw with Kander & JBE people really like vets as political candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on February 28, 2017, 01:40:03 PM
Northam says he voted for George W. Bush both times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-candidate-for-virginia-governor-says-he-voted-for-george-w-bush-twice_us_58b48eb9e4b0780bac2c68d5


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Intell on March 04, 2017, 02:21:33 AM
Northam says he voted for George W. Bush both times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-candidate-for-virginia-governor-says-he-voted-for-george-w-bush-twice_us_58b48eb9e4b0780bac2c68d5

Go Perriello, a man who won in a conservative district, with progressive values! Not a person who self-describes him self as a conservative on fiscal issues, and voted for Bush.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on March 04, 2017, 08:54:28 AM
Northam says he voted for George W. Bush both times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-candidate-for-virginia-governor-says-he-voted-for-george-w-bush-twice_us_58b48eb9e4b0780bac2c68d5

UGH. DINOs are the worst.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Oakvale on March 04, 2017, 09:33:27 AM
I mean I'm obviously supporting Fightin Tom (normal AAD) but a guy voting Republican when he was a generic upper middle class voter rather than an active politician seems like a dubious attack tbh.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on March 04, 2017, 11:01:25 AM
Northam says he voted for George W. Bush both times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-candidate-for-virginia-governor-says-he-voted-for-george-w-bush-twice_us_58b48eb9e4b0780bac2c68d5

This doesn't really matter largely because there are many Democrats and Democratic-leaners in the state who did the same thing.

It's quite interesting how the Bernie-wing has co-opted Perriello to be some sort of left-wing populist when he's really more like a 2008 Hillary Clinton, and an Obamaite to boot as well. I like him because of those traits, but he's spent a little too much time crafting an anti-Trump strategy rather than boasting his policies and credentials. He also seems liable to make a gaffe that Republicans would punish him for, which he has already done. That's why I'll probably vote for Northam.


()

yeah...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on March 04, 2017, 11:15:56 AM
This doesn't really matter largely because there are many Democrats and Democratic-leaners in the state who did the same thing.

It's quite interesting how the Bernie-wing has co-opted Perriello to be some sort of left-wing populist when he's really more like a 2008 Hillary Clinton, and an Obamaite to boot as well. I like him because of those traits, but he's spent a little too much time crafting an anti-Trump strategy rather than boasting his policies and credentials. He also seems liable to make a gaffe that Republicans would punish him for, which he has already done. That's why I'll probably vote for Northam.

Mostly agreed here. Personally, I'm not sure the choice really matters so long as both are Democrats willing to uphold most party principles. With the legislature currently being the VAGOP's last bastion of power, it means VA Democrats are mostly playing defense in their statewide positions. If anything, since a Governor can't run for 2 terms in a row, it might be better for liberals to field their candidate in 2021, after next redistricting when Democrats can likely expect to be much more competitive in the House of Delegates, assuming we win this election and block bad gerrymanders. Until then, however, the next Governor in Virginia, if a Democrat, will mostly spend his time blocking the GOP's agenda.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 04, 2017, 05:51:51 PM
I mean I'm obviously supporting Fightin Tom (normal AAD) but a guy voting Republican when he was a generic upper middle class voter rather than an active politician seems like a dubious attack tbh.

Agreed.

He's a man who was a conservative Democrat and became slightly more liberal throughout the years (abortion, gun control).

As someone who has had an Independent voting record that isn't confined to one party (I even voted for Mark Warner for Senate and Barbara Comstock for Congress in 2014, which was the first election I voted in), I have no issue with Northam on this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Intell on March 04, 2017, 08:45:03 PM
I mean I'm obviously supporting Fightin Tom (normal AAD) but a guy voting Republican when he was a generic upper middle class voter rather than an active politician seems like a dubious attack tbh.

One's voting record is quite important, and it's not if he changed his opinions just two years late, most likely to run for state senate.

Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Frodo on March 04, 2017, 09:36:46 PM
Northam says he voted for George W. Bush both times.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-candidate-for-virginia-governor-says-he-voted-for-george-w-bush-twice_us_58b48eb9e4b0780bac2c68d5

I can hardly hold that against him since I voted for Bush once myself.  :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on March 05, 2017, 10:30:39 AM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 05, 2017, 03:37:24 PM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2017, 06:51:01 AM
Northam got the endorsement of NARAL


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 13, 2017, 04:26:07 PM
Northam got the endorsement of NARAL

This seems like quite a blow to Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on March 13, 2017, 04:33:51 PM
Northam got the endorsement of NARAL

This seems like quite a blow to Perriello.
Not surprising. Even with Northam having admitted to voting for GWB both times, social liberalism has always been something he's been pretty consistent with, plus he's a sitting officeholder, so he has a consistent, recent record. Perriello was in office only two years, and then he had a mixed abortion record.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on March 13, 2017, 05:30:18 PM
yeah, NARAL or any pro-abortion group endorsing Northam is not shocking. I'm waiting until any sort of union backs Northam, then I'll be worried.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 13, 2017, 07:38:55 PM
I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 14, 2017, 05:08:59 PM
Perriello holding a music concert rally later this month (https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/tprockandrally-170324?refcode=fbvideo_170307)

That's pretty cool.  I don't know if that's a common thing in Virginia or the South in general, but I lived in Connecticut for most of my life and political campaigns holding concerts there was just unheard of.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: libertpaulian on March 14, 2017, 07:18:10 PM
I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.
Mark Uter...er...Udall's people should get in touch with Northam's people about that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on March 14, 2017, 07:20:47 PM
I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.
Early in his career he described himself as "conservative on fiscal issues but liberal on social issues," and was courted to switch to the GOP. It seems like that's what made him a Democrat (at first). I wouldn't call him right of the center fiscally, but he isn't that much to the left, and is certainly running to Perriello's right on economic issues.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on March 14, 2017, 08:22:16 PM
I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.
Mark Uter...er...Udall's people should get in touch with Northam's people about that.


Yes, but that strategy is proven to work better in VA than in any other competitive state (Hillary 2016, McAuliffe/Herring 2013, etc.)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on March 15, 2017, 01:21:56 AM
I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.
Mark Uter...er...Udall's people should get in touch with Northam's people about that.


Yes, but that strategy is proven to work better in VA than in any other competitive state (Hillary 2016, McAuliffe/Herring 2013, etc.)
Focusing on social liberalism should work well in New Hampshire, though I guess it's not really a competitive state.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Intell on March 15, 2017, 06:49:53 PM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

However unlike Northam, he isn't symbolism for the worst of the democratic party, those like yourself.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on March 15, 2017, 08:26:15 PM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

However unlike Northam, he isn't symbolism for the worst of the democratic party, those like yourself.
Oh christ we will never beat Trump if we create an "ideology purity test" for blue dogs an no-liberals yes progressives/Bernie's wing deserve a bigger seat at the table right now heck even maybe the drivers seat in 2020 but we shouldn't try to purge conservative dems like Manchin (who drives me nuts btw) or Northan


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: libertpaulian on March 15, 2017, 08:57:01 PM
I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.
Mark Uter...er...Udall's people should get in touch with Northam's people about that.


Yes, but that strategy is proven to work better in VA than in any other competitive state (Hillary 2016, McAuliffe/Herring 2013, etc.)
Focusing on social liberalism should work well in New Hampshire, though I guess it's not really a competitive state.
You and TN Volunteer/MT Treasurer need to get over yourselves with this New Hampshire thing.  It's one of the most elastic states in the nation.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 15, 2017, 09:07:41 PM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

However unlike Northam, he isn't symbolism for the worst of the democratic party, those like yourself.
Oh christ we will never beat Trump if we create an "ideology purity test" for blue dogs an no-liberals yes progressives/Bernie's wing deserve a bigger seat at the table right now heck even maybe the drivers seat in 2020 but we shouldn't try to purge conservative dems like Manchin (who drives me nuts btw) or Northan

You realize the guy you are talking to is a user with a socialist flair and a quote from Salvador Allende in his/her flair who tends to call people to the right of his/her political views "human trash".

It's a lost cause.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on March 16, 2017, 09:12:46 AM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

However unlike Northam, he isn't symbolism for the worst of the democratic party, those like yourself.
Oh christ we will never beat Trump if we create an "ideology purity test" for blue dogs an no-liberals yes progressives/Bernie's wing deserve a bigger seat at the table right now heck even maybe the drivers seat in 2020 but we shouldn't try to purge conservative dems like Manchin (who drives me nuts btw) or Northan

You realize the guy you are talking to is a user with a socialist flair and a quote from Salvador Allende in his/her flair who tends to call people to the right of his/her political views "human trash".

It's a lost cause.

That is wholly untrue, Sandatander is not human trash, Chairman Shanchez is ffine, DC Al fine is fine, so is RepublicanGoldwater as most people with a blue avatar.

Non-Swing Voter is the worst poster, with the worst politics and is human trash.

You included two of the worst right-wing posters in that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Intell on March 16, 2017, 09:28:22 AM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

However unlike Northam, he isn't symbolism for the worst of the democratic party, those like yourself.
Oh christ we will never beat Trump if we create an "ideology purity test" for blue dogs an no-liberals yes progressives/Bernie's wing deserve a bigger seat at the table right now heck even maybe the drivers seat in 2020 but we shouldn't try to purge conservative dems like Manchin (who drives me nuts btw) or Northan

You realize the guy you are talking to is a user with a socialist flair and a quote from Salvador Allende in his/her flair who tends to call people to the right of his/her political views "human trash".

It's a lost cause.

That is wholly untrue, Sandatander is not human trash, Chairman Shanchez is ffine, DC Al fine is fine, so is RepublicanGoldwater as most people with a blue avatar.

Non-Swing Voter is the worst poster, with the worst politics and is human trash.

You included two of the worst right-wing posters in that.

Ideologically yes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on March 16, 2017, 12:05:56 PM
Northam is a symbol of upper-middle class democrats, which is awful.

Perriello is also an upper-middle class Democrat. There are a lot of them in Virginia. Get over yourself.

However unlike Northam, he isn't symbolism for the worst of the democratic party, those like yourself.
Oh christ we will never beat Trump if we create an "ideology purity test" for blue dogs an no-liberals yes progressives/Bernie's wing deserve a bigger seat at the table right now heck even maybe the drivers seat in 2020 but we shouldn't try to purge conservative dems like Manchin (who drives me nuts btw) or Northan

You realize the guy you are talking to is a user with a socialist flair and a quote from Salvador Allende in his/her flair who tends to call people to the right of his/her political views "human trash".

It's a lost cause.

That is wholly untrue, Sandatander is not human trash, Chairman Shanchez is ffine, DC Al fine is fine, so is RepublicanGoldwater as most people with a blue avatar.

Non-Swing Voter is the worst poster, with the worst politics and is human trash.

You included two of the worst right-wing posters in that.

Ideologically yes.

I was referring to Sanchez and Santander, although Santander can at least be entertaining.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 16, 2017, 02:13:22 PM
Riggleman out. (https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/842452740974489602)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 17, 2017, 12:05:10 PM
Podesta  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-governors-race-that-could-define-the-democratic-partys-future/2017/03/17/cd8db79e-0a83-11e7-a15f-a58d4a988474_story.html?utm_term=.69e81c0320f4)endorses Perriello, 2nd major Clintonista endorsement after Neera Tanden. Presumably T-Mac won't be amused if more of these are forthcoming.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on March 19, 2017, 10:40:37 PM
The liberal showdown in Virginia's gubernatorial race played out earlier this month in Northern Virginia, where Democrat Ralph Northam met with workers at Ronald Reagan National Airport who were campaigning for a $15-per-hour minimum wage.

"We need to work hard to increase the minimum wage," he told NBC News after the event, later adding: "I've been fighting for progressive values in Virginia for the last 10 years."

The very next day, his primary opponent Tom Perriello made the same visit - and his campaign told NBC that he had embraced raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour before Northam did.

Say hello to the 2017 Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia, which increasingly has become a contest to see which candidate is more progressive. And say goodbye to the more centrist Virginia Democratic playbook that current Sen. Mark Warner — and Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, to lesser degrees — used successfully in the state over the last 16 years.

Northam, the state's lieutenant governor, has touted his record fighting the state's transvaginal ultrasound legislation in 2012, as well as pushing for gun-safety reforms.

Perriello, a former Democratic congressman, talks about achieving criminal-justice reform, combating a "rigged" economy and fighting against the Trump administration's "white tribalism."

And it all raises the question: Just how blue is the state that Democrats have won in three-straight presidential elections? Or is it still purple, given the Republicans' control of the state legislature and their gubernatorial victory there eight years ago?

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says Perriello's surprise entry in the contest earlier this year — Northam originally expected no serious competition in the June 13 Democratic primary — made it a race to the left.

"No question Perriello is dragging Northam to the left," Sabato said. "Actually, Northam has moved left during the McAuliffe administration, even before Perriello announced. But now Northam has to stress all of his liberal positions — some of which, on gun control and abortion, may be more to the left than Perriello's record."

But Sabato also notes that President Trump's unpopularity in Virginia — a poll last month had his approval rating at 38 percent in the state — could overshadow this Democratic competition over who is more progressive.

"Trump may generate a larger turnout than usual than usual among Democrats come November. The larger the turnout, the likelier the electorate will resemble last November, and the better the [Democratic] nominee's chances," he said.

Northam, a doctor and Army veteran, says he isn't concerned about a primary dragging the eventual Democratic nominee to the left. "These are things that I've fought for my whole life," he told NBC. "And as a lot of people know, I ran in a very conservative district," referring to his days as a state senator.

Perriello's campaign has a similar response, arguing that pursuing priorities like a $15-per-hour minimum wage "is a fight we welcome" given that it's something even some Trump backers support, says Perriello spokesman Ian Sams.

"Of the two candidates running in the primary, Tom brings bolder arguments than Ralph has brought," Sams adds. "We welcome an argument who can be the most bold."

Holes in Their Progressive Records
Yet as Northam and Perriello try to one-up each other in the Democratic primary, their own progressive records contain some noticeable holes, which each candidate is trying to exploit.

For Northam, it's voting for George W. Bush in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. "Knowing what I know now, that vote was wrong. That administration does not stand for what I believe in," he said in an interview with NBC News.

"At the end of the day, I don't think Virginians are worried about who I voted for 17 years ago. They're worried about what I've been fighting for since I was a public servant and where I want to take Virginia."

For Perriello, it's the A-rating he earned from the National Rifle Association when he served in Congress, as well as his vote for an anti-abortion amendment in the debate over the 2010 health-care law.

"I want to be very clear that I regret my vote on the Stupak-Pitts Amendment," he wrote in an online post last month. "This vote caused real pain to constituents and other women. I appreciate that some of these brave women and reproductive justice advocates took time to tell me their stories and educate me about the full implications of that vote."

GOP: "A Primary Between Left and Left-er"
Republicans in Virginia are giddy to see this Democratic contest turn into a race to the left.

"This is a primary between left and left-er and it's hard to tell which one is which," says Matt Moran, a spokesman for GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Ed Gillespie. "They oppose offshore drilling, an energy pipeline backed by Gov. [Terry] McAuliffe, and are both in favor of sanctuary cities, driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, a $15 minimum wage, and free community college. And it's only March!"

Adds Republican Party of Virginia Chair John Whitbeck, "It appears that Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam are desperate to be Virginia's version of Bernie Sanders."

But Democrats ultimately believe that Virginia's gubernatorial race will be more about the eventual Republican nominee having to own President Trump than any primary liberal showdown.

"There's going to be a tremendous amount of focus on Virginia to see which way this country wants to go," Northam told NBC News.

As well as focus about just how blue - or purple - Virginia really is.

Source - NBC


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2017, 03:23:08 PM
WaPo on Northam's organization. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginias-june-primary-poses-the-first-major-test-for-trump-era-democrats/2017/03/21/c1f58bea-0a70-11e7-b77c-0047d15a24e0_story.html?utm_term=.df51ad9277c9)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on March 22, 2017, 01:03:17 PM
Team Obama endorses Tom Perriello en mass (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obama-staff-tom-perriello-virginia-236367)

Quote
Seeking to drape himself in the mantle of Barack Obama in his Virginia gubernatorial race, former Rep. Tom Perriello on Wednesday began circulating a letter showing support from more than two dozen members of the former president’s staff, according to a copy obtained by POLITICO.

Among the 29 signers: Obama’s 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe; former White House deputy chief of staff Nancy-Ann DeParle; former White House Senior Adviser Dan Pfeiffer; former White House Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri; former White House deputy senior adviser, Stephanie Cutter; former White House social secretary Julianna Smoot; former White House Domestic Policy Council Director Cecilia Muñoz; and former White House director of political affairs, Patrick Gaspard, fresh off a stint as the U.S. ambassador to South Africa.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 22, 2017, 01:04:37 PM
This could get interesting...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 23, 2017, 05:10:46 PM


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on March 24, 2017, 01:16:33 AM
Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

If West Virginia can raise their minimum wage, why can't Virginia? I was the first candidate in this race to call for a $15 minimum wage, because higher wages are good for business, good for workers, and good for our economy.

In any case, if you're running your campaign without corporate money, or are in a position to return any small sums of it you may have raised, I strongly advise you to re-frame as a, "corporate-free" Democrat. We have found that to be extremely effective in conveying leadership and integrity. Good luck with your campaign!

I support medical marijuana and decriminalization of low level possession.  The issue of pain management alternatives is particularly acute in the wake of a Big Pharma promoted opioid crisis that is killing three Virginians each day.

Proud to have voted for the ACA, including an even stronger first version that included a public option, removal of anti-trust protections and negotiated prescription drug costs.

The Virginia system is one of the most broken in the country -- unlimited contributions! This includes money and gifts directly from corporations, including publicly regulated monopolies. While the legislature is deeply partisan, the largest contributor to both parties is Dominion Power and not coincidentally we rank at or near last place in every ranking of clean and renewable energy.

Ralph Northam is a great public servant, and I would be honored to work with him in any capacity. I know the party will be united not just for the general election but for governing the state and keeping it a firewall against Trump's agenda of hate.

I strongly support non-partisan (independent) redistricting and promise to veto any partisan district maps. I support the One Virginia 2021 legal strategy to challenge the current maps. Virginia is a 50/50 (leaning blue!) state but our House of Delegates is 2/3 R. The maps were drawn by the DC lobbying firm of my likely Republican opponent Ed Gillespie to ensure our legislature represents his clients instead of Virginia voters.

Lots of similarities -- good to see unity across the Dem party and the resistance on so many fronts. On differences, I have opposed two fracked-gas pipelines across Virginia and refused any donations from Dominion Power. We have called for those investments to focus instead on energy efficiency, wind and solar power. Our campaign has led on the fight for a $15/hour minimum wage and called for racial disparity studies in contracting. Also, I am a lifelong Democrat who ran progressive campaigns to fight against the Bush Agenda, whereas Northam voted twice for George W Bush. As for the frame, I am proud to be running a progressive campaign and want to partner with the unprecedented grassroots energy that has arisen in the wake of the Trump Administration.

In general, we believe there are huge opportunities for decentralized energy and food production in these areas. We have prioritized two debt-free years of community college and career technical training programs to encourage multiple pathways into trades and living wage healthcare jobs.

We also need to bring new industries, like clean and renewable energy, with local production, to areas like SWVA to create hundreds, if not thousands, of new jobs that give hard-working people a good-paying, permanent job.

One of the only areas of bipartisanship in Richmond is accepting Dominion's contributions. Meanwhile, Dominion holds back progress on clean energy development, which could create thousands of jobs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 24, 2017, 03:26:38 AM
This was retweeted (https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/845031672189980672) by Perriello: ten former Bernie delegates endorsing him.

Bernie voters are definitely going to break hard for Perriello.  Having Podesta and the Obama team on his side is great, too.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on March 24, 2017, 07:57:36 AM
I'm starting to think Perriello is actually favored.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on March 24, 2017, 10:37:37 AM
Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on March 24, 2017, 12:36:57 PM
Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.

Sorry !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Zioneer on March 24, 2017, 12:43:23 PM
Some key points - He sounds very VERY progressive, guess Tom & Ralph are both swinging to more left than one another dragging Virginia to be more & more liberal

[post]

Shadows what was that post even about? You should include links to what you're reading and/or structure it better.
I've seen some of that on Perriello's Reddit "Ask Me Anything" post, so it might be from there.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 24, 2017, 02:39:37 PM
Stars & Bars fan talks to Thernovich about ceucks. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/24/politics/kfile-virginia-governor-livestream-appearance/index.html)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on March 24, 2017, 09:14:42 PM
Oh Lord.

http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/governor-hopeful-corey-stewart-taking-heat-for-the-term-cuckservative/article_6fe0376a-10c4-11e7-b909-db18779cb941.html

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on March 25, 2017, 11:58:54 AM
Northam and Fairfax handily win an Alexandria St. Patrick's Day straw poll. (http://alextimes.com/2017/03/northam-wins-local-gubernatorial-straw-poll/) Fantastic news!

Obviously a straw poll means very little, but it confirms my thinking that Perriello needs to run far ahead of Bernie Sanders did in rural areas. We'll see if he can.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2017, 06:39:26 AM
Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-perriello-is-not-bernie-sanders/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 29, 2017, 09:30:48 AM
Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-perriello-is-not-bernie-sanders/)
How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on March 29, 2017, 06:21:31 PM
Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-perriello-is-not-bernie-sanders/)
How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

It's pretty hard to spin having the endorsements of both Bernie Sanders AND John Podesta as being a negative.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on March 29, 2017, 08:15:48 PM
Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-perriello-is-not-bernie-sanders/)
How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

Massive boon, for one VA was in Super Tuesday & Sanders gave up on the state so the real margin could actually be 10-15-20 odd instead of 30, Sanders' supporters are probably likely to be much more engaged than Clinton's.

You can also add Tom's endorsements from Team Obama & many in the establishment wing. If he can sweep or get most (say 3/4th) of the Sanders voters he is guaranteed a win. In the last poll, Tom led by only 10% odd among Sanders voters while Ralph had a 10% odd lead among Clinton's supporters. (both were taking votes from both factions).

Clinton supporters' in general have a very high favorability of Sanders' , 90% odd so it is unlikely they will sour if Sanders' wing coalesces behind Tom. You can also add the huge influx of small donations which is going to critical !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Holmes on March 29, 2017, 08:25:41 PM
An endorsement from Sanders is good for Periello but I reject the whole "the real margin could actually be 10 - 20 points" argument. Clinton is a real good fit among Virginia Democrats. If Sanders tried harder, he might have made inroads in the western half of the state, but there's not a lot of voters there to begin with, and they were already voting for Trump anyway because it was an open primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 29, 2017, 11:13:54 PM
Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-perriello-is-not-bernie-sanders/)
How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

It's pretty hard to spin having the endorsements of both Bernie Sanders AND John Podesta as being a negative.
Touche.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on March 30, 2017, 12:12:33 AM
Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Figueira on March 30, 2017, 12:15:54 AM
Long 538 Perriello profile is somewhat newsy: Our Revolution may endorse Perriello soon, per Jeff Weaver. Perhaps even Sanders himself. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-perriello-is-not-bernie-sanders/)
How much of a boon will that be in a state Hillary beat Bernie in by 30 points?

I'd imagine that Sanders currently has net-positive favorables among Virginia Democratic primary voters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 01, 2017, 02:41:25 AM
The main distinction here appears to be folks inside Virginia (Kaine, Warner, McAuliffe) are backing Northman and folks outside Virginia (Team Obama and Team Sanders) are backing Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: OneJ on April 01, 2017, 10:35:58 AM
Does anyone know who black Virginians are backing between Northam and Perriello? Just wondering.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 01, 2017, 01:03:37 PM
Does anyone know who black Virginians are backing between Northam and Perriello? Just wondering.

In polling, they are somewhere between tossup and Lean Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 02, 2017, 08:44:27 PM
Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.

LOL too late.

There's a bit of that vibe as well in the New Jersey Gubernatorial primaries on the Democratic side.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 02, 2017, 08:46:08 PM
Yeah also let's try not to turn literally every single Democratic primary into a proxy battle for Sanders/Hillary pls

I mean I'll be really pissed if "SOSHUL LIBRUL/FISCULL CONSERTIVE" Ralph Northam wins (more so than when Perez beat Ellison, even), but if he does it won't be because Hillary Clinton secretly wants to punish Sanders voters or whatever.

LOL too late.

There's a bit of that vibe as well in the New Jersey Gubernatorial primaries on the Democratic side.

Northam vs. Perriello is more like "more Clinton than Clinton" vs. "halfway between Clinton and Sanders."  Full on Sanders populism won't work in a state with as many wealthy Dems as VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 04, 2017, 07:13:33 AM
Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello (https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/849230844384473088)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Blair on April 04, 2017, 07:30:15 AM
Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello (https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/849230844384473088)

Interesting but not a shocking move.

Clinton actually unified the Obama wing of the party, with the older and actual centrist DNC wing of the party, so it's a mistake to see as every race as being 'Clinton v Sanders'


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 04, 2017, 09:28:04 AM
Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello (https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/849230844384473088)
Not surprising. As others have said, having both Podesta and Sanders (not including many members of Obamaworld) is nothing but a boon for Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Suburbia on April 04, 2017, 11:10:01 AM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 04, 2017, 11:38:18 AM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Podesta endorsing Perriello makes it impossible for this to become a Sanders/Clinton proxy battle.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: LabourJersey on April 04, 2017, 02:04:55 PM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Perriello was endorsed by the NRA at one point--in what fantasy world does he count as "too anti-gun"? Also I don't think there is anyone in elected American politics who can accurately be described as "anti-military."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 04, 2017, 02:30:11 PM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Tom has to be the most gun friendly Dem, He has an A rating or something from the NRA & no1 is anti-military, some people just don't want to see money abused in stupid wars & soldiers killed for no good reason.

VA is a Likely D at this point & it will be very hard for the GOP to win in 2017 & Tom has been doing better than Ralph in the polls. And he has support from Podesta, Obama staffers & Sanders & his supporters - Essentially both wings - Let's see if he win now, because if he still can't, then it's difficult to see him having a good future in politics !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Babeuf on April 04, 2017, 02:33:58 PM
Have to think an Obama endorsement, while unlikely, isn't out of the question. Perriello was one of his favorite congressman.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 04, 2017, 04:56:58 PM
Bernie Sanders endorses Perriello (https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/849230844384473088)

And the Northam vs. Perriello race gets even more tense....


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2017, 06:35:40 PM
Sanders is campaigning with Perriello. (https://twitter.com/tomperriello/status/849398351024017408)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Holmes on April 04, 2017, 07:51:20 PM
Fairfax is an interesting choice. Sanders is probably more useful in the western, more rural areas of the state but NoVA will be the most important region in the primary and has the most votes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on April 04, 2017, 08:25:55 PM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Tom has to be the most gun friendly Dem, He has an A rating or something from the NRA & no1 is anti-military, some people just don't want to see money abused in stupid wars & soldiers killed for no good reason.

VA is a Likely D at this point & it will be very hard for the GOP to win in 2017 & Tom has been doing better than Ralph in the polls. And he has support from Podesta, Obama staffers & Sanders & his supporters - Essentially both wings - Let's see if he win now, because if he still can't, then it's difficult to see him having a good future in politics !
Perriello seems to have renounced his pro-gun past a few years ago. Still, I can see him being attacked as flip flopping on that issue.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 04, 2017, 09:42:13 PM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Tom has to be the most gun friendly Dem, He has an A rating or something from the NRA & no1 is anti-military, some people just don't want to see money abused in stupid wars & soldiers killed for no good reason.

VA is a Likely D at this point & it will be very hard for the GOP to win in 2017 & Tom has been doing better than Ralph in the polls. And he has support from Podesta, Obama staffers & Sanders & his supporters - Essentially both wings - Let's see if he win now, because if he still can't, then it's difficult to see him having a good future in politics !
Perriello seems to have renounced his pro-gun past a few years ago. Still, I can see him being attacked as flip flopping on that issue.

Both candidates are being attacked for being "flip floppers" and not being "true progressives".


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Kamala on April 04, 2017, 09:55:22 PM
I'm torn on whom to support in this primary, I like both candidates a lot. Northam has that air of pragmatism, but Perriello is just so incredibly energetic. Somehow I like both how Perriello is clearly ambitious and driven and how it doesn't seem like Northam has any future ambitions beyond Governor.
Perriello's Obama connections might push him forward, just a tad.

I'm glad this is one of those rare (primary) election where I'll be happy regardless of who wins... The only other one off the top of my head is the German federal election, Merkel and Schultz are both great candidates and make great Chancellors.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 04, 2017, 11:52:25 PM
I'm torn on whom to support in this primary, I like both candidates a lot. Northam has that air of pragmatism, but Perriello is just so incredibly energetic. Somehow I like both how Perriello is clearly ambitious and driven and how it doesn't seem like Northam has any future ambitions beyond Governor.
Perriello's Obama connections might push him forward, just a tad.

I'm glad this is one of those rare (primary) election where I'll be happy regardless of who wins... The only other one off the top of my head is the German federal election, Merkel and Schultz are both great candidates and make great Chancellors.
Yeah, I think if Perriello wins, he's going to run for President in 2020.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 05, 2017, 12:01:36 AM
It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Tom has to be the most gun friendly Dem, He has an A rating or something from the NRA & no1 is anti-military, some people just don't want to see money abused in stupid wars & soldiers killed for no good reason.

VA is a Likely D at this point & it will be very hard for the GOP to win in 2017 & Tom has been doing better than Ralph in the polls. And he has support from Podesta, Obama staffers & Sanders & his supporters - Essentially both wings - Let's see if he win now, because if he still can't, then it's difficult to see him having a good future in politics !
Perriello seems to have renounced his pro-gun past a few years ago. Still, I can see him being attacked as flip flopping on that issue.

Fully agreed with you. I think he will be moderately left on guns, not Hillary level though. But to say he is anti-guns given the current stance of Democrats like Murphy, Hillary, etc on guns is not correct.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 05, 2017, 12:08:35 AM
Henry Waxman , Former Representative has an article on Tom

He squeaked into office from Virginia’s conservative Fifth Congressional District by a smaller margin – 727 votes – than any other Member of Congress elected that year.

Perriello faced massive pressure from Tea Party Republicans and polluters to oppose the Waxman-Markey climate bill I authored as Chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee.It faced hundreds of millions of dollars in attacks by oil and coal companies who wanted to protect the status quo. Too many Democrats from less conservative districts than Tom’s told me they thought the legislation was good for America and the world, but that they weren’t willing to risk their political fortunes to vote for it.

In contrast, Tom proudly voted for this legislation, and then went back to his district to explain why he took the vote he did, and how a shift to clean energy would dramatically bolster Virginia’s economy. Tom proudly stood up and voted for expanded health care. Again, he stood up for his vote, and hit the trail to defend it. Even though the administration was pushing it, Tom opposed the second Wall Street bailout.

Unlike his opponent, Tom has taken a clear stance against the construction of polluting new fossil fuel pipelines that risk fouling Virginia’s gorgeous forests and streams

Full Article - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tom-perriello-would-be-a-governor-with-a-backbone_us_58e3ba81e4b0f4a923b241ba?utm_hp_ref=politics


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on April 05, 2017, 12:16:42 AM
A reminder that Ed Gillespie, the "moderate Nice Guy FF" candidate who has spent his entire career as a GOP hatchetman, is still a huge turd sandwich (http://www.gayrva.com/news-views/moderate-virginia-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-ed-gillespie-thinks-we-need-an-hb2-style-bathroom-bill/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 06, 2017, 09:15:13 PM
A couple of my friends dragged into going to the Tom Perriello / Bernie Sanders rally at GMU tonight. The crowd was made up of the exact white latte liberals you'd expect to show up to this kind of rally.

I gotta say, it reaffirmed my position that I'd be happy voting for Perriello in a GE, and he is a good guy. However, his platform is pretty shallow in my opinion, and he really does play up a lot of cliches about 'resisting' and being 'progressive', and that still seems quite disingenuine to me. I do think he's doing himself and the party a favor by not poisoning the well with Northam, and that kind of strategy won't turn Clinton voters off from him. I would not at all be shocked if he holds Northam's margins in Fairfax and Loudoun to single-digits, which could give him a path to victory.

Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, said nothing new and regurgitated his stump speech from the presidential campaign, and he even falsely stated that Perriello supports his free tuition college plan, when in fact, Perriello is only in favor of making trade school and community college debt-free. And my god, some his supporters really do act like members of a cult.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on April 06, 2017, 09:35:25 PM
A couple of my friends dragged into going to the Tom Perriello / Bernie Sanders rally at GMU tonight. The crowd was made up of the exact white latte liberals you'd expect to show up to this kind of rally.

I gotta say, it reaffirmed my position that I'd be happy voting for Perriello in a GE, and he is a good guy. However, his platform is pretty shallow in my opinion, and he really does play up a lot of cliches about 'resisting' and being 'progressive', and that still seems quite disingenuine to me. I do think he's doing himself and the party a favor by not poisoning the well with Northam, and that kind of strategy won't turn Clinton voters off from him. I would not at all be shocked if he holds Northam's margins in Fairfax and Loudoun to single-digits, which could give him a path to victory.

Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, said nothing new and regurgitated his stump speech from the presidential campaign, and he even falsely stated that Perriello supports his free tuition college plan, when in fact, Perriello is only in favor of making trade school and community college debt-free. And my god, some his supporters really do act like members of a cult.

Interesting to hear you say that. Here's a video he did for the campaign where he stands against pipelines (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciIWIk3bBu8), another video with him in Southwestern Virginia where he discusses a variety of issues (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gmn2qy-0F4). Look, I think it's fair to say he's not discussing these issues in much depth, I understand. But for a political campaign, from what I've seen, I think Tom is trying to be substantive and talk about a platform that is unique and aims at people that aren't just the usual Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 06, 2017, 10:00:15 PM
Oh I'm not denying that Perriello has nuanced policies up his sleeve, and he actually does have some noteworthy positions on automation and the decentralization of food production that I really want to hear more about, but he just doesn't give it the time of day. The main reason I'm really skeptical of him is because I think he belongs in the federal government and not in Richmond, but he knows that this is a better springboard into something higher up. I just want someone to be the Governor of Virginia first and foremost.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 06, 2017, 10:11:20 PM
Oh I'm not denying that Perriello has nuanced policies up his sleeve, and he actually does have some noteworthy positions on automation and the decentralization of food production that I really want to hear more about, but he just doesn't give it the time of day. The main reason I'm really skeptical of him is because I think he belongs in the federal government and not in Richmond, but he knows that this is a better springboard into something higher up. I just want someone to be the Governor of Virginia first and foremost.
Honestly if he wins the primary and election, he shoots up the list for potential 2020 candidates. I feel like that may be his motive here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Frodo on April 07, 2017, 01:32:35 PM
My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.   


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on April 07, 2017, 01:44:07 PM
My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.  

As opposed to the 99.99% of other people who run for elected office ::)  This idea that Perriello is somehow more ambitious than most politicians and that if this is true it means he'll be a bad Governor is pretty silly, tbh.  I mean, does anyone here really think Northam didn't run for Lieutenant Governor simply to use the office as a springboard or that he wouldn't use being Governor of Virginia as a springboard to run for higher office if he really thought it'd make him a viable candidate for said office?  

For that matter, I find the claims that Perriello is a shrewd, careerist, insincere phony while Northam is some sort of ambition-free :) :) Virginia first :) :) hero to be silly too.  Perriello consistently made tough, high-profile, progressive votes in the house and he didn't run away from them when he ran for re-election.  If he were an insincere careerist hack, he wouldn't have done that given the district he represented.  That was a rare example of someone knowingly sacrificing (b/c let's be honest, no one expected to hear from him again after that) their political career to do what they thought was right time after time.  I'm not saying Northam's a DINO or even any worse than the average politician, but he doesn't have anywhere near as impressive a record in this regard and was even considered a potential party-switcher by the Republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Frodo on April 07, 2017, 02:24:01 PM
My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.  

As opposed to the 99.99% of other people who run for elected office ::)  This idea that Perriello is somehow more ambitious than most politicians and that if this is true it means he'll be a bad Governor is pretty silly, tbh.  I mean, does anyone here really think Northam didn't run for Lieutenant Governor simply to use the office as a springboard or that he wouldn't use being Governor of Virginia as a springboard to run for higher office if he really thought it'd make him a viable candidate for said office?

Most politicians at least pretend to act as if the elected position they're running for is their heart's desire.  It's less insulting to their voters that way.  We don't appreciate being used, much less reminded of it.  Tom Perriello, however, reminds me of Marco Rubio.  I wonder if he's going to spend more of his time on the job, or running around the country seeking endorsements, raising money, and going to Iowa and New Hampshire.  :P

Quote
For that matter, I find the claims that Perriello is a shrewd, careerist, insincere phony while Northam is some sort of ambition-free :) :) Virginia first :) :) hero to be silly too.  Perriello consistently made tough, high-profile, progressive votes in the house and he didn't run away from them when he ran for re-election.  If he were an insincere careerist hack, he wouldn't have done that given the district he represented.  That was a rare example of someone knowingly sacrificing (b/c let's be honest, no one expected to hear from him again after that) their political career to do what they thought was right time after time.  I'm not saying Northam's a DINO or even any worse than the average politician, but he doesn't have anywhere near as impressive a record in this regard and was even considered a potential party-switcher by the Republicans.

Perriello made those 'tough, high-profile, progressive' votes that only seem impressive because his eye was always on a higher, national office.  Let's not forget how quickly he disavowed his earlier conservative record on gun control and abortion as opposed to standing by them.  I certainly won't.  


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 07, 2017, 02:26:14 PM
My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.  

As opposed to the 99.99% of other people who run for elected office ::)  This idea that Perriello is somehow more ambitious than most politicians and that if this is true it means he'll be a bad Governor is pretty silly, tbh.  I mean, does anyone here really think Northam didn't run for Lieutenant Governor simply to use the office as a springboard or that he wouldn't use being Governor of Virginia as a springboard to run for higher office if he really thought it'd make him a viable candidate for said office?

Most politicians at least pretend to act as if the elected position they're running for is their heart's desire.  It's less insulting to their voters that way.  We don't appreciate being used, much less reminded of it.  Tom Perriello, however, reminds me of Marco Rubio.  I wonder if he's going to spend more of his time on the job, or running around the country seeking endorsements, raising money, and going to Iowa and New Hampshire.  :P

Quote
For that matter, I find the claims that Perriello is a shrewd, careerist, insincere phony while Northam is some sort of ambition-free :) :) Virginia first :) :) hero to be silly too.  Perriello consistently made tough, high-profile, progressive votes in the house and he didn't run away from them when he ran for re-election.  If he were an insincere careerist hack, he wouldn't have done that given the district he represented.  That was a rare example of someone knowingly sacrificing (b/c let's be honest, no one expected to hear from him again after that) their political career to do what they thought was right time after time.  I'm not saying Northam's a DINO or even any worse than the average politician, but he doesn't have anywhere near as impressive a record in this regard and was even considered a potential party-switcher by the Republicans.

Perriello made those 'tough, high-profile, progressive' votes that only seem impressive because his eye was always on a higher, national office.  Let's not forget how quickly he disavowed his earlier conservative record on gun control and abortion.  I certainly won't.   

The fact that VA has a single term limit for governor's mitigates this concern IMO.  Because of this, literally everyone who runs for VA-GOV does so thinking about what they will do next.

At this point, I would be quite surprised if Northam wins the primary over Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 07, 2017, 04:08:00 PM
Dem debate schedule released. (https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/850454304108490752)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on April 07, 2017, 06:39:30 PM
Northam is a fine guy but the idea he's some unambitious, completely sincere person is just ridiculous. The guy thought about switching parties for crying out loud!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 10:35:40 PM
My issue with Tom Perriello (besides his insincere vibe) is his opportunism -it's just too obvious.  I don't want to vote for someone so as to enable them to get a springboard for higher office.  Focus on being my governor, first and foremost.  

As opposed to the 99.99% of other people who run for elected office ::)  This idea that Perriello is somehow more ambitious than most politicians and that if this is true it means he'll be a bad Governor is pretty silly, tbh.  I mean, does anyone here really think Northam didn't run for Lieutenant Governor simply to use the office as a springboard or that he wouldn't use being Governor of Virginia as a springboard to run for higher office if he really thought it'd make him a viable candidate for said office?

Most politicians at least pretend to act as if the elected position they're running for is their heart's desire.  It's less insulting to their voters that way.  We don't appreciate being used, much less reminded of it.  Tom Perriello, however, reminds me of Marco Rubio.  I wonder if he's going to spend more of his time on the job, or running around the country seeking endorsements, raising money, and going to Iowa and New Hampshire.  :P

Quote
For that matter, I find the claims that Perriello is a shrewd, careerist, insincere phony while Northam is some sort of ambition-free :) :) Virginia first :) :) hero to be silly too.  Perriello consistently made tough, high-profile, progressive votes in the house and he didn't run away from them when he ran for re-election.  If he were an insincere careerist hack, he wouldn't have done that given the district he represented.  That was a rare example of someone knowingly sacrificing (b/c let's be honest, no one expected to hear from him again after that) their political career to do what they thought was right time after time.  I'm not saying Northam's a DINO or even any worse than the average politician, but he doesn't have anywhere near as impressive a record in this regard and was even considered a potential party-switcher by the Republicans.

Perriello made those 'tough, high-profile, progressive' votes that only seem impressive because his eye was always on a higher, national office.  Let's not forget how quickly he disavowed his earlier conservative record on gun control and abortion as opposed to standing by them.  I certainly won't.  

To say that someone who is barely in Congress for a couple of years made very hard votes & tried to explain that to his constituents in meeting repeatedly was due to some long term plan is flat out ridiculous. If anything you are likely out of office, possibly never to be back again & staying in Congress for 7-8 years & then trying for a Senate/Gov seat is much more apt than losing this early for some supposed state-wide goodwill on issues which May or MAY not even matter to people!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Zioneer on April 08, 2017, 07:22:01 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Kamala on April 08, 2017, 07:35:32 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

Me too! They're both wonderful candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on April 08, 2017, 07:40:06 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

Me too! They're both wonderful candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on April 08, 2017, 07:49:04 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

I don't see a contrast so compelling as to make me really want one over the other. But it's also more than that. We're not looking at a unified state govt here. The Senate will remain Republican at least until after the 2019 elections, and the House of Delegates has an entrenched & gerrymandered GOP majority that may persist well into the 2020s. I'm not sure there will be a ton of meaningful difference in terms of what actually gets done.

I might like Perriello more, but meh. I'm good with either just so long as they are there to force fair legislative/Congressional maps in 2021-2022.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 08, 2017, 07:52:41 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

Me too! They're both wonderful candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on April 08, 2017, 08:10:08 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

It's not that I'd mind Northam, so much as it is that I really like Perriello


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on April 08, 2017, 08:16:59 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

It's not that I'd mind Northam Perriello, so much as it is that I really like Perriello Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 08, 2017, 11:48:43 PM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Holmes on April 09, 2017, 12:12:02 AM
I feel the same but lately I've been moving more towards Periello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 09, 2017, 12:46:09 AM
The problem with Ralph is that it is pretty difficult to accept the 2004 Bush vote (maybe you can ignore the 2000 vote). Ignore the massive re-deregulation, environment record, tax cuts for the uber rich, blowing up the debt, torture of innocent people, Patriot Act, etc.

But in 2004,  it was already clear that Iraq was a total disaster. And he still voted for Bush against Kerry after voting for Bush against Gore when Bush was still campaigning of Iraq War being a success & as a war president. That is not just terrible judgement but really calls into question his whole vision, ideas, leadership - What kind of a leader will he really be?

Does he have to wait till 2007, when the Republican party abandoned Bush?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 09, 2017, 12:53:16 PM
The problem with Ralph is that it is pretty difficult to accept the 2004 Bush vote (maybe you can ignore the 2000 vote). Ignore the massive re-deregulation, environment record, tax cuts for the uber rich, blowing up the debt, torture of innocent people, Patriot Act, etc.

But in 2004,  it was already clear that Iraq was a total disaster. And he still voted for Bush against Kerry after voting for Bush against Gore when Bush was still campaigning of Iraq War being a success & as a war president. That is not just terrible judgement but really calls into question his whole vision, ideas, leadership - What kind of a leader will he really be?

Does he have to wait till 2007, when the Republican party abandoned Bush?

I actually think a one-time Bush vote in 2004 would be easier to reconcile with the Dem base than a Bush vote in 2000, especially in a state as hawkish as VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 09, 2017, 01:49:41 PM
The problem with Ralph is that it is pretty difficult to accept the 2004 Bush vote (maybe you can ignore the 2000 vote). Ignore the massive re-deregulation, environment record, tax cuts for the uber rich, blowing up the debt, torture of innocent people, Patriot Act, etc.

But in 2004,  it was already clear that Iraq was a total disaster. And he still voted for Bush against Kerry after voting for Bush against Gore when Bush was still campaigning of Iraq War being a success & as a war president. That is not just terrible judgement but really calls into question his whole vision, ideas, leadership - What kind of a leader will he really be?

Does he have to wait till 2007, when the Republican party abandoned Bush?

I actually think a one-time Bush vote in 2004 would be easier to reconcile with the Dem base than a Bush vote in 2000, especially in a state as hawkish as VA.

No I'm not talking about VA, but about him in general - Him voting twice, in 2000 & 2004 & then claiming to be "progressive". If Bush's carnage in his 1st term wasn't enough & he believed this War President BS & he needed till 2007 odd to realize his mistake, then he has some judgement & leadership issues.

But anyways no1 is perfect & that goes for Tom as well !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 10, 2017, 09:35:03 AM
Am I the only one who wouldn't mind either Perriello or Northam being governor?

Me too! They're both wonderful candidates.

Northam, who described himself as "conservative on fiscal issues", is most certainly not a wonderful candidate for the left.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 13, 2017, 06:34:27 PM
Perriello raised 2.2 million dollars MORE than Northman in Q1. I'll post a link once I'm back home.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 13, 2017, 06:43:31 PM
Er, he raised 700k more. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/virginias-democratic-primary-is-suddenly-close-ish/?ex_cid=538twitter)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 14, 2017, 07:06:39 AM
I read that article as "Tom Perriello (whom I profiled last month) had brought in $2.2 million more than his primary opponent."

My bad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: SoLongAtlas on April 14, 2017, 07:27:29 AM
The Dem primary will be close.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 14, 2017, 10:09:44 PM
OurRevolution endorsed Tom - Moneybomb coming !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 20, 2017, 11:56:23 AM
PCCC, Khizr and Ghazala Khan endorse Perriello (http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score)

Quote
ENDORSEMENT WATCH — NEW THIS A.M. — PCCC endorses Perriello: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has endorsed Democrat Tom Perriello ahead of the Virginia gubernatorial primary. The group boasts its Virginia political coordinator, Teddy Smyth, “will be coordinating directly with the Perriello campaign on the ground -- mobilizing our over 23,000 members in Virginia, conducting intensive training for field volunteers, and providing key political advice for the campaign.” The group will also raise cash for the former congressman.

— Khizr and Ghazala Khan endorses Perriello: Another endorsement for Perriello comes from Khizr Khan, the Virginia lawyer whose speech about his son who died in Iraq electrified the Democratic National Convention.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 21, 2017, 12:58:36 PM
One of his first Virginian endorsements.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on April 22, 2017, 09:12:56 PM
13 Ways I Will Fight For Virginia’s Environment
- Tom Perriello, Contributor

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/13-ways-i-will-fight-for-virginias-environment_us_58fb76f9e4b0f02c3870eac4?s9g


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on April 24, 2017, 10:43:19 AM
In a rare bit of news from the Republican side, candidate Corey Stewart likens the tearing down of Confederate monuments to ISIS attacks.

https://twitter.com/CoreyStewartVA/status/856506483411910656


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Suburbia on April 24, 2017, 11:06:18 AM
Corey Stewart is an idiot. Gillespie will win the GOP nomination, and he will give both Democrats a run.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on April 24, 2017, 02:11:37 PM
Confederate monuments are basically the world's biggest participation trophies.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on April 24, 2017, 02:42:31 PM
This is the text of the monument that was torn down.

"United States troops took over the state government and reinstated the usurpers but the national election of November 1876 recognized white supremacy in the South and gave us our state"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Babeuf on April 24, 2017, 05:25:35 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-tom-perriello_us_58fe651ae4b00fa7de16d3b6?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004

Warren endorses Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Suburbia on April 24, 2017, 05:28:11 PM
Still Lean Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 24, 2017, 09:17:12 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-tom-perriello_us_58fe651ae4b00fa7de16d3b6?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004

Warren endorses Perriello.
C'est fini.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Miles on April 24, 2017, 09:17:42 PM
NARAL endorsed Northam. (http://www.naralva.org/elections/ralphnortham.shtml)

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on April 24, 2017, 09:19:08 PM
Seems most of the DC establishment is behind Perriello while most of the Virginia establishment (McAuliffe, Kaine, Warner) is behind Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 24, 2017, 09:20:39 PM
NARAL endorsed Northam. (http://www.naralva.org/elections/ralphnortham.shtml)

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.
Was Perriello pro-life?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 24, 2017, 09:44:55 PM
NARAL endorsed Northam. (http://www.naralva.org/elections/ralphnortham.shtml)

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.
Was Perriello pro-life?

I'm pretty sure he's always been pro-choice, but he legislated like a pro-lifer, voting for the Stupak amendment in the ACA which would've prohibited the use of federal funds for abortion. I guess the Hyde Amendment didn't suffice.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on April 24, 2017, 09:53:50 PM
NARAL endorsed Northam. (http://www.naralva.org/elections/ralphnortham.shtml)

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.
Was Perriello pro-life?

Nah, this is just much ado about nothing by the usual Northam supporters.  Btw, can I just take a moment to note how utterly revolting it is that Northam's been making campaign stops at abortion facilities.  I mean, I'm pro-choice too, but let's not pretend abortions are something to be celebrated.  Are they sometimes a necessary evil?  Sure.  But let's not reduce such a serious issue to a photo-op.  I mean, it'd be nice if Northam could show a bit more tact here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 24, 2017, 09:58:46 PM
Warren said she had tried to coax Perriello to join her at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau after he lost his re-election to Congress in 2010. “I actually tried to hire him a long time ago. “He’s strong, he’s aggressive on consumer issues, and I really wanted him to come and be one of the major people running the CFPB. "

“I think that if he’s governor, he would be terrific,” Warren said. “He’s a guy with values. He’s practical, he’s pragmatic, that’s why I wanted him at the agency. He’s the kind of guy who says, ‘I am going to make change and I’m going to make change not for the richest, not for the most powerful, not for what’s politically expedient. I want to make change for hard-working families.’”

Looks like Warren likes him for a long while


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 24, 2017, 10:04:17 PM
NARAL endorsed Northam. (http://www.naralva.org/elections/ralphnortham.shtml)

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.
Was Perriello pro-life?

Nah, this is just much ado about nothing by the usual Northam supporters.  Btw, can I just take a moment to note how utterly revolting it is that Northam's been making campaign stops at abortion facilities.  I mean, I'm pro-choice too, but let's not pretend abortions are something to be celebrated.  Are they sometimes a necessary evil?  Sure.  But let's not reduce such a serious issue to a photo-op.  I mean, it'd be nice if Northam could show a bit more tact here.

Haven't seen such a thing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 24, 2017, 10:54:25 PM
NARAL endorsed Northam. (http://www.naralva.org/elections/ralphnortham.shtml)

Makes Perriello's switch on this look even worse, IMO.
Was Perriello pro-life?

I'm pretty sure he's always been pro-choice, but he legislated like a pro-lifer, voting for the Stupak amendment in the ACA which would've prohibited the use of federal funds for abortion. I guess the Hyde Amendment didn't suffice.
Ugh. I guess it was Virgil Goode's district but still...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on April 25, 2017, 10:41:20 AM
GREAT ad from Northam here, I think people underestimate the guys political skills.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYW6CVpO-Dk&feature=youtu.be

*** mod note: fixed link


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 25, 2017, 01:21:02 PM
GREAT ad from Northam here, I think people underestimate the guys political skills.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYW6CVpO-Dk&feature=youtu.be

*** mod note: fixed link
Awesome ad. Showing real people impacted by a candidate is always a good strategy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 25, 2017, 05:39:26 PM
GREAT ad from Northam here, I think people underestimate the guys political skills.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYW6CVpO-Dk&feature=youtu.be

*** mod note: fixed link

Northam seems like a real nice lad IRL. :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Blair on April 26, 2017, 06:31:45 AM
I have a feeling that Northam may actually win by a much larger margin, purely because of the amount of favours that he can pick up in Virginia. I mean the endorsement of groups like NARAL+ support from state senators/other local officals carry much more campaigning weight than Elizabeth Warren praising him in an article.

I'm actually starting to sour on Perriello, and I'm beginning to see why someone on here compared him to a Marco Rubio esque figure


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on April 26, 2017, 07:38:30 AM
Tom is a fighter, I saw the interview he did with Chris Hayes & he seemed great. The Rubio comparisons don't surprise me because these same posters have terrible judgement & had no idea HRC could lose & how hated she was.

Tom is a future star of the Democrats while Northam was a Republican & conservative who voted for Bush twice after the Iraq War was playing out & Bush is one of the biggest disasters in recent history. The guy has 0 charisma, is totally bland &  has no business being anywhere near the Gov. seat !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on April 26, 2017, 08:43:19 AM
Tom is a fighter, I saw the interview he did with Chris Hayes & he seemed great. The Rubio comparisons don't surprise me because these same posters have terrible judgement & had no idea HRC could lose & how hated she was.

Tom is a future star of the Democrats while Northam was a Republican & conservative who voted for Bush twice after the Iraq War was playing out & Bush is one of the biggest disasters in recent history. The guy has 0 charisma, is totally bland &  has no business being anywhere near the Gov. seat !

I really don't think you should compare voting records between candidates... First off, personal votes should not be issues of campaigns, their elected tenure should be the issue here. And 'Tom' is not flawless on that regard.

I think they are both fine candidates, but as a staunch Northam supporter for years, and good friends with his family, I am very fired up for him being elected Virginia's next governor.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: SoLongAtlas on April 26, 2017, 08:49:08 AM
Tom is a good guy and he meant well (he was my former Rep and met him at one of his ACA town halls in 2010) but Northam has my support. Tom can't run a NY or CA style campaign in VA and win. VA is shifting to the Dems but it is still a southern state below PW county and east/west of Richmond. Gillespie would love to run against him. Northam can win and Gillespie knows that, polls bear it out as well.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: TheSaint250 on April 26, 2017, 10:43:30 AM
Gillespie will win the GOP nomination, and he will give both Democrats a run.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: LabourJersey on April 26, 2017, 12:40:25 PM
With regards to Northam having Virginia support, does this having any effect on the ballot for the primary? Will Northam have Column A in most counties?

I personally think this is the only way that state bigwigs have any real power in primaries anymore-give their preferred candidates the first column to encourage low information voters to go with their guy. The high information voters couldn't care less about what their state senator thinks--they're the ones in tune with Liz Warren's endorsements, John Podesta's endorsements, etc.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 26, 2017, 12:44:51 PM
Tom is a fighter, I saw the interview he did with Chris Hayes & he seemed great. The Rubio comparisons don't surprise me because these same posters have terrible judgement & had no idea HRC could lose & how hated she was.

Tom is a future star of the Democrats while Northam was a Republican & conservative who voted for Bush twice after the Iraq War was playing out & Bush is one of the biggest disasters in recent history. The guy has 0 charisma, is totally bland &  has no business being anywhere near the Gov. seat !
There are probably lots of Democrats in Virginia who voted for Bush twice. It did swing rather dramatically from safe red to safe blue in a matter of years.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Heisenberg on April 26, 2017, 01:50:53 PM
Tom is a fighter, I saw the interview he did with Chris Hayes & he seemed great. The Rubio comparisons don't surprise me because these same posters have terrible judgement & had no idea HRC could lose & how hated she was.

Tom is a future star of the Democrats while Northam was a Republican & conservative who voted for Bush twice after the Iraq War was playing out & Bush is one of the biggest disasters in recent history. The guy has 0 charisma, is totally bland &  has no business being anywhere near the Gov. seat !
There are probably lots of Democrats in Virginia who voted for Bush twice. It did swing rather dramatically from safe red to safe blue in a matter of years.
Not all, but I'm sure many are in the NOVA area. Remember, W Bush wasn't anti-big government at all, and Republicans held VA-11 from 1994 to 2008. Stuff like drain the swamp, federal hiring freeze, cut unnecessary spending, etc. are beyond toxic in that area, and a lot of the NOVA people will naturally be very anti-Republican assuming the GOP keeps moving in the direction it does. The DC suburbs are not your typical suburbs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Miles on April 27, 2017, 10:55:14 PM
Went to a Perriello town hall tonight.

I told him I was disappointed with his flip on the Stupak Amendment. I was hoping for a Time Kaine type "well, I'm personally, pro-life, but..." response. But he actually told me he wants a state constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion. I don't think Northam has even gone that far left.

He also had LuAnn Bennett introduce him; her campaign last year basically emphasized all the issue I disagree with the party on. She said she's not running again.

He keeps talking about nationalizing the race, which I don't like. Seeing nationalization used against other Democrats in the south during the Obama era, I want local races to be more nuanced than that.

Overall, I'm still leaning towards Northam.

And a pic:

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 28, 2017, 10:23:47 PM
Went to a Perriello town hall tonight.

I told him I was disappointed with his flip on the Stupak Amendment. I was hoping for a Time Kaine type "well, I'm personally, pro-life, but..." response. But he actually told me he wants a state constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion. I don't think Northam has even gone that far left.

He also had LuAnn Bennett introduce him; her campaign last year basically emphasized all the issue I disagree with the party on. She said she's not running again.

He keeps talking about nationalizing the race, which I don't like. Seeing nationalization used against other Democrats in the south during the Obama era, I want local races to be more nuanced than that.

Overall, I'm still leaning towards Northam.

And a pic:

()

He's compensating for NARAL.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on April 29, 2017, 02:45:09 PM
Just canvassed and am at the pre-Dem Debate rally for Northam. Going to be great stuff tonight!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 29, 2017, 07:31:43 PM
Does anyone have any links to footage of the Democratic debate tonight? I missed the live stream and I can't find any other sources of footage.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 29, 2017, 09:59:38 PM
The Dem debate was interesting, I suppose. They mostly spoke parallel of each other with the exception of Perriello pressing Northam on whether Dominion Energy influenced his position on gas pipelines, which Northam more or less sidestepped with an answer on pragmatism.

I'm glad someone finally acknowledged the imbalance between what NOVA sends to Richmond and what it gets back in terms of tax dollars from the state government, and it happened to be Northam when talking about Fairfax's recent school budget crisis. To be fair to Perriello on education, he gave an excellent answer on why making community college and trade school tuition-free would be a boon economically.

As for who won, I'd say it was a wash.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on April 29, 2017, 10:06:50 PM
Basically the same as heatcharger^^^

I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety. I wonder if this will be a topic in the next couple of debates.

Good stuff though, nonetheless.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on April 29, 2017, 10:17:17 PM
I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety.

Yeah, that was a little odd for Perriello. He's really reluctant to talk about his previously conservative record on guns and abortion.

Also, are there anymore Sanders-Northam supporters like you? I wonder because Northam has more support among the youngs than I expected. Perhaps that's because of his stronger ties to the Democratic machine in the state.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 29, 2017, 11:42:53 PM
Basically the same as heatcharger^^^

I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety. I wonder if this will be a topic in the next couple of debates.

Good stuff though, nonetheless.

I'm surprised that Virginia Democrats are shifting so far on gun control. Then again, McAuliffe was very pro gun control during his 2013 campaign.

I guess Jim Webb was the last of the mainstream pro-gun Virginian Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on April 30, 2017, 12:41:16 PM
Basically the same as heatcharger^^^

I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety. I wonder if this will be a topic in the next couple of debates.

Good stuff though, nonetheless.

I'm surprised that Virginia Democrats are shifting so far on gun control. Then again, McAuliffe was very pro gun control during his 2013 campaign.

I guess Jim Webb was the last of the mainstream pro-gun Virginian Democrats.

It's all about NoVA now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on April 30, 2017, 12:42:48 PM
Basically the same as heatcharger^^^

I'd say the one exchange on guns was interesting. Perriello really tried to distance himself from that NRA endorsement, and even went so far as to attack Northam for being "the deciding vote" on gun safety. I wonder if this will be a topic in the next couple of debates.

Good stuff though, nonetheless.

I'm surprised that Virginia Democrats are shifting so far on gun control. Then again, McAuliffe was very pro gun control during his 2013 campaign.

I guess Jim Webb was the last of the mainstream pro-gun Virginian Democrats.

It's all about NoVA now.

I feel like Perriello is less NoVA-centric than Northam, considering he's talked about giving more attention to counties other than NoVA and the Tidewater counties IIRC.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: henster on May 02, 2017, 12:57:18 PM
Another great ad from Northam goes right after Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDonPK5bJoM


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on May 02, 2017, 01:20:47 PM
to his credit, Northam is running a very strong campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Holmes on May 02, 2017, 02:15:19 PM
Another great ad from Northam goes right after Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDonPK5bJoM

The ad makes a sharp anti-Trump turn about two thirds in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on May 02, 2017, 02:33:25 PM
Another great ad from Northam goes right after Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDonPK5bJoM

The ad makes a sharp anti-Trump turn about two thirds in.

VA Tech Shooting to Trump is a narcisstic maniac. Really going bang for your buck with that one.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on May 04, 2017, 02:50:47 PM
New timely Perriello ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=32&v=kad9lGbc_xI)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 04, 2017, 02:52:44 PM
New timely Perriello ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=32&v=kad9lGbc_xI)

Pretty good ad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on May 04, 2017, 04:45:00 PM
New timely Perriello ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=32&v=kad9lGbc_xI)

Pretty good ad.

I believe it's made by the same people that did the Kander rifle ad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on May 04, 2017, 11:04:54 PM
One thing I think the Perriello did is light a fire under Ralph Northam's bum - and I'm very appreciative of that regardless of who wins the primary.

These two candidates are inspiring one another to do their best work.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on May 05, 2017, 11:00:32 AM
One thing I think the Perriello did is light a fire under Ralph Northam's bum - and I'm very appreciative of that regardless of who wins the primary.

These two candidates are inspiring one another to do their best work.

Well said


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on May 07, 2017, 12:07:30 AM
Tom Perriello went to NBC & said the AHCA put state Republicans on notice & that it will put more state legislatures in play. He challenged Ed Gillespie to take the pledge to not take the waiver on pre-existing conditions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXps6qYSQtM

And he has a new ad titled "the President" with Obama saying Tom went to DC & took on Wall Street, insurance companies & hugs him during Tom's re-election campaign. Tom then talks about he had non-profits to fight climate change, poverty & Bush's attack on Civil Liberty

(George freaking Bush whom Northam supported twice btw)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26n6cQ0WtU4


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on May 07, 2017, 12:31:23 AM
Tom Perriello went to NBC & said the AHCA put state Republicans on notice & that it will put more state legislatures in play. He challenged Ed Gillespie to take the pledge to not take the waiver on pre-existing conditions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXps6qYSQtM

Come to think about it, the AHCA does give state-level Democrats a somewhat potent line of attack. Even if the bill ultimately doesn't end up passing (or is made substantially less horrifying), it is still an angle to hit them on for this year's limited elections.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on May 07, 2017, 01:13:12 AM
Tom Perriello went to NBC & said the AHCA put state Republicans on notice & that it will put more state legislatures in play. He challenged Ed Gillespie to take the pledge to not take the waiver on pre-existing conditions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXps6qYSQtM

Come to think about it, the AHCA does give state-level Democrats a somewhat potent line of attack. Even if the bill ultimately doesn't end up passing (or is made substantially less horrifying), it is still an angle to hit them on for this year's limited elections.

And even in 2018, should the Senate bill still contain the waiver, it's a lot more powerful to say, "Your Governor, X McRepublican, elected to make you pay more on health insurance," than other more abstract attacks.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on May 08, 2017, 02:11:00 AM
Perriello, a first-term Democrat in a rural, red, New Jersey-sized patch of "Southside" Virginia, had cast a key vote for Waxman-Markey, the House's cap-and-trade bill that would go on to die in the Senate. Ads by the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supported his challenger Robert Hurt to the tune of $1.1 million, dubbed it an "energy tax." The US Chamber of Commerce piled on too. When Perriello eventually lost by 4 points, the NRCC claimed his climate advocacy, along with his vote for the Affordable Care Act, was a big reason why.

But unlike a lot of other Democrats who were swept out to sea in that 2010 wave, Perriello had run on, not from, his support for the Obama agenda. "I think we convert more people by being bolder on climate instead of soft on climate," he said. "People thought that was a bad vote for me, but we didn't just vote for it; we went out and made the case to farmers and small-business owners—literally got down to the level of cow manure and capturing methane off of cow manure for farmers to be able to power their own farms." He cited an election-eve poll that showed voters trusted him by 24 points on energy issues.

A few supporters of the Atlantic pipeline gripped posters calling Perriello a "job killer" for his environmentalist objections—just like the old times—but no one paid them much attention. A few feet away, behind the scrum of shouting youths, a supporter clutched a sign that said "Perriello ♥'s Obamacare." In a time when everything seems upside-down, it was a simple image of how Tom Perriello landed on his feet.

Full Article - http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/05/tom-perriello-ralph-northam-climate-march

New timely Perriello ad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=32&v=kad9lGbc_xI)

394, 630 Youtube views already & increasing! This ad is becoming a rage !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 13, 2017, 02:53:41 PM
Tommy P has an exchange with Richard Spencer on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tomperriello/status/863454033813438464


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 13, 2017, 03:10:29 PM
Jarrett endorses Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 13, 2017, 03:15:15 PM

I'm quite curious to see if Obama actually does anything.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 13, 2017, 03:27:05 PM
As if we needed more evidence that Northam is despicable and should have no place in the modern Democratic Party, this charming exchange from 2011 (https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/861956114681823236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fatlasafterdark.freeforums.net%2Fthread%2F6566%2Fhold-firewall-virginia-thread%3Fpage%3D7) just came to light. The moderator asked Northam "Do you think that access to quality health care is a right?", to which Northam replied "I believe it's a privilege" and then went on to spew right-wing drivel that basically boiled down to "Poor people should just pull themselves up by their bootstraps if they want healthcare!"

What a disgrace.

Dont worry guys... if Dems just keep moving to the center, they'll win! Combine that with minority turnout...they'll never lose again!

Hmmm...where have we heard this from again?

Democrats, the kind that you don't like, control every statewide elected office.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 13, 2017, 03:34:47 PM
...and a whopping 6 states have Democratic trifectas in the whole country.

Perhaps it would help if leftists decided to vote in off-year elections. I also thought we were talking about Virginia here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 13, 2017, 04:05:05 PM
...and a whopping 6 states have Democratic trifectas in the whole country.

Perhaps it would help if leftists decided to vote in off-year elections. I also thought we were talking about Virginia here.

Hence my earlier point about why moving to the center depresses leftist turnout

Not in Virginia


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 13, 2017, 04:21:51 PM
...and a whopping 6 states have Democratic trifectas in the whole country.

Perhaps it would help if leftists decided to vote in off-year elections. I also thought we were talking about Virginia here.

Hence my earlier point about why moving to the center depresses leftist turnout

Not in Virginia

Says who? When Democrats say things like this, they are only parroting the Republican narrative that Democrats have to move to the center to win.

In the 2013 Virginia Gubernatorial election...turnout was only 43%...That's alot of unmotivated voters.

We picked up the Governorship, Lieutenant Governorship, and AG's office in 2013.  Sounds like a pretty good outcome to me :P  I generally want the most liberal Democrat who can win, that's part of why I'm a Perriello supporter.  However, the idea that the answer to the party's woes is some sort of tea-party-esque ideological purity crusade is ridiculous.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: NeverAgain on May 13, 2017, 04:42:26 PM
I am really getting just depressed at the fact that many, I won't even say Perriello supporters, as it's really not him they are supporting, it's the downfall of the supposed "Centrist Democrats".

Is this really how we move forward?

Perriello, along with some of his supporters, have done a great job of helping push the VA Dems, and Northam in particular down the path of futhered progressivism that can now be achieved. But the thing that does annoy me is those who will not be impacted by this election, nor have any context of what is happening, bashing and denigrating many folks who will be required to win here.

I support Northam, because I think he has the experience and know-how of VA Politics to move this state forward. Does that mean I should attack Perriello as a woman-hating, pro-mass murder, evil creature? Of course not. His positions were his positions, and to be a politician, your positions will change and as a voter, you have to accept that.

Northam supports a $15 Minimum Wage, Free 2-year College Tuition with apprenticeship, Medicaid Expansion, and so many other supposedly solely "progressive" ideals. There is almost NO difference on policy between the candidates, despite the centrist vs. real-left, the media and some on here seem to believe.

I mean, I won't ask for the "can't we all just get along", but at least can we stop vilifying two fine candidates for the Virginia Governorship?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on May 13, 2017, 05:38:12 PM
I'm generally in agreement with "the centrist Dem method has failed", but you have to pick your battles, and Virginia is a state where muh centrist Dems have been successful. Maybe in a pretty unequal way, considering the top offices are controlled by Dems but the legislature and congress are controlled overwhelmingly by Republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on May 13, 2017, 10:23:20 PM
I am really getting just depressed at the fact that many, I won't even say Perriello supporters, as it's really not him they are supporting, it's the downfall of the supposed "Centrist Democrats".

Is this really how we move forward?

Perriello, along with some of his supporters, have done a great job of helping push the VA Dems, and Northam in particular down the path of futhered progressivism that can now be achieved. But the thing that does annoy me is those who will not be impacted by this election, nor have any context of what is happening, bashing and denigrating many folks who will be required to win here.

I support Northam, because I think he has the experience and know-how of VA Politics to move this state forward. Does that mean I should attack Perriello as a woman-hating, pro-mass murder, evil creature? Of course not. His positions were his positions, and to be a politician, your positions will change and as a voter, you have to accept that.

Northam supports a $15 Minimum Wage, Free 2-year College Tuition with apprenticeship, Medicaid Expansion, and so many other supposedly solely "progressive" ideals. There is almost NO difference on policy between the candidates, despite the centrist vs. real-left, the media and some on here seem to believe.

I mean, I won't ask for the "can't we all just get along", but at least can we stop vilifying two fine candidates for the Virginia Governorship?

I'm not a Democrat, but I have noticed that the VA Democratic primaries have been pretty bitter.

And the bitterness hasn't come from the candidates themselves, its come from their fans who are having slapfights over who is the "true progressive".


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on May 13, 2017, 10:59:56 PM
I am really getting just depressed at the fact that many, I won't even say Perriello supporters, as it's really not him they are supporting, it's the downfall of the supposed "Centrist Democrats".

Is this really how we move forward?

Perriello, along with some of his supporters, have done a great job of helping push the VA Dems, and Northam in particular down the path of futhered progressivism that can now be achieved. But the thing that does annoy me is those who will not be impacted by this election, nor have any context of what is happening, bashing and denigrating many folks who will be required to win here.

I support Northam, because I think he has the experience and know-how of VA Politics to move this state forward. Does that mean I should attack Perriello as a woman-hating, pro-mass murder, evil creature? Of course not. His positions were his positions, and to be a politician, your positions will change and as a voter, you have to accept that.

Northam supports a $15 Minimum Wage, Free 2-year College Tuition with apprenticeship, Medicaid Expansion, and so many other supposedly solely "progressive" ideals. There is almost NO difference on policy between the candidates, despite the centrist vs. real-left, the media and some on here seem to believe.

I mean, I won't ask for the "can't we all just get along", but at least can we stop vilifying two fine candidates for the Virginia Governorship?

I'm not a Democrat, but I have noticed that the VA Democratic primaries have been pretty bitter.

And the bitterness hasn't come from the candidates themselves, its come from their fans who are having slapfights over who is the "true progressive".

It appears to be more bitter online, haven't really seen much animosity between the two candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Maxwell on May 14, 2017, 12:04:35 AM
Perriello and Northam have been remarkably civil for a very contested primary, and I think it's a testament to how good a guys they are. Truthfully, despite Northam's previous and present fiscal views, I think he would be a good Governor of Virginia. and I'm sure many Northam people think the same of Perriello. I think Perriello would be a better Governor for a few reasons but I'm sure Northam people think differently (and I agree with the idea that Northam would be better on some of the local issues, though not all, especially those related to DOMINION POWER) and that's good.

This is not a race to get angry about or pout IM NOT GONNA VOTE FOR SO AND SO over.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on May 14, 2017, 06:41:04 AM
Perriello literally has no support of the Virginia establishment (Senator, Gov, State Leg.) but has the backing of Washington (Sanders, Warren, Hillary & Obama people) - It is kinda sad how the primary should be about picking the strongest candidate with the best ideas but it becomes about who gets more establishment support (Virginia of DC).

Anyways, Northam was pretty hard on Perriello about a few votes in the debate while Tom was more about you voted for Bush twice. Perriello isn't taking Dominion money, opposes the pipelines, proposes free community college, is stronger on the environment, was 1st to propose 15$ Min wage & runs a share stronger than Northam vs the Republicans ! He is making a legitimate case against a man who voted twice for freaking Bush & voted for Cap n Trade & for ACA which cost him his seat !

In the end whoever wins, will probably beat the Republican & neither are bad. But the Democrats have failed totally statewide in Virginia, don't control the Legislature & have not got a lot of stuff done - Nothing like the 15$ Wage will come until the Democrats take back the State Leg.

In the end, the party's success is not about holding onto power of Gov races etc but about what difference it makes in the lives of people through policies. Virginia is one of the states without Medicaid expansion which is a total embarrassment given many Republican states have also done so ! I saw Perrielo speaking about taking State Legislatures in an interview with MSNBC & he is a welcome change from the same old, same old which has lost more than 900 state legislative seats & is satisfied with getting crumbs !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 14, 2017, 08:00:11 AM
But the Democrats have failed totally statewide in Virginia, don't control the Legislature & have not got a lot of stuff done - Nothing like the 15$ Wage will come until the Democrats take back the State Leg.

Democrats don't control the State House because it's one of the worst gerrymanders in the country. That's why it's very important that a Democrat win this year with large coattails, while also being successful enough to flip the State Senate in 2019 so that fair maps can be drawn after 2020.

Quote
In the end, the party's success is not about holding onto power of Gov races etc but about what difference it makes in the lives of people through policies. Virginia is one of the states without Medicaid expansion which is a total embarrassment given many Republican states have also done so ! I saw Perrielo speaking about taking State Legislatures in an interview with MSNBC & he is a welcome change from the same old, same old which has lost more than 900 state legislative seats & is satisfied with getting crumbs

McAullife has pushed for the Medicaid expansion numerous times, but the 66-34 Republican HOD won't let it happen. In no way is this Democrats' fault.

It appears to be more bitter online, haven't really seen much animosity between the two candidates.

Honestly, it sounds like I'm getting bitter at this point, it's because people from out of state who don't know anything about VA state politics keep talking sh*t about Democrats who actually win. Otherwise, I really just wish for this primary to be over so I can support the winner more actively.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on May 14, 2017, 04:53:21 PM
Perriello literally has no support of the Virginia establishment (Senator, Gov, State Leg.) but has the backing of Washington (Sanders, Warren, Hillary & Obama people) - It is kinda sad how the primary should be about picking the strongest candidate with the best ideas but it becomes about who gets more establishment support (Virginia of DC).

Anyways, Northam was pretty hard on Perriello about a few votes in the debate while Tom was more about you voted for Bush twice. Perriello isn't taking Dominion money, opposes the pipelines, proposes free community college, is stronger on the environment, was 1st to propose 15$ Min wage & runs a share stronger than Northam vs the Republicans ! He is making a legitimate case against a man who voted twice for freaking Bush & voted for Cap n Trade & for ACA which cost him his seat !

In the end whoever wins, will probably beat the Republican & neither are bad. But the Democrats have failed totally statewide in Virginia, don't control the Legislature & have not got a lot of stuff done - Nothing like the 15$ Wage will come until the Democrats take back the State Leg.

In the end, the party's success is not about holding onto power of Gov races etc but about what difference it makes in the lives of people through policies. Virginia is one of the states without Medicaid expansion which is a total embarrassment given many Republican states have also done so ! I saw Perrielo speaking about taking State Legislatures in an interview with MSNBC & he is a welcome change from the same old, same old which has lost more than 900 state legislative seats & is satisfied with getting crumbs !


Isn't that US politics in general?

Big money sucks on politics like a fat leech.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on May 14, 2017, 06:08:03 PM
In the end whoever wins, will probably beat the Republican & neither are bad. But the Democrats have failed totally statewide in Virginia, don't control the Legislature & have not got a lot of stuff done - Nothing like the 15$ Wage will come until the Democrats take back the State Leg.

I don't understand what this means. Democrats currently control all 3 statewide offices in Virginia, and even when state politics in VA finally flipped to Republicans in the 90s, Democrats still managed to continue winning the Governor's office more often than not, which conveniently put Republicans in a situation where it took them so long to uproot state Democrats that by the time they did, the state was already shifting back towards Democrats. This situation has meant that Virginia has never had to truly suffer through the GOP's incessant rightwards shift, as there has usually been a Democrat standing over them with a veto pen, keeping them in check.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on May 14, 2017, 06:34:57 PM
Perriello and Northam have been remarkably civil for a very contested primary, and I think it's a testament to how good a guys they are. Truthfully, despite Northam's previous and present fiscal views, I think he would be a good Governor of Virginia. and I'm sure many Northam people think the same of Perriello. I think Perriello would be a better Governor for a few reasons but I'm sure Northam people think differently (and I agree with the idea that Northam would be better on some of the local issues, though not all, especially those related to DOMINION POWER) and that's good.

This is not a race to get angry about or pout IM NOT GONNA VOTE FOR SO AND SO over.

Well said, Maxwell


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on May 15, 2017, 11:36:38 AM
Long Term Plan for Virginia:

2017

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 7-10 House of Delegates Seats

2018

1) Knock Out Comstock
2) Kaine Holds His Senate Seat

2019

1) Win 2-3 Senate Seats, Take Control of Chamber (Guarantee at least fair redistricting next round)
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegate Seats, Get Close To Taking Control Or Totally Take It

2020

1) Democrat wins Virginia For President in route to White House
2) Warner Holds His Senate Seat

2021

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegates Seats, Take Control of the Chamber

2022

1) Fair Redistricting
2) Ant-Voter Suppression Legislation: Move elections to even years, statewide offices and state senate races to Presidential years, automatic voter registration, vote by mail, repeal of voter ID, same day registration, massive expansion of non-excuse early voting, restoration of felon voting rights, statewide holiday for election day, expand voting hours to 10PM Eastern, reduce residency requirements
3) Amendment to allow Governors to run for reelection


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: _ on May 15, 2017, 12:10:53 PM
Corey Stewart seems likely to drop out on the GOP Side today.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 15, 2017, 12:20:41 PM
Long Term Plan for Virginia:

2017

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 7-10 House of Delegates Seats

2018

1) Knock Out Comstock
2) Kaine Holds His Senate Seat

2019

1) Win 2-3 Senate Seats, Take Control of Chamber (Guarantee at least fair redistricting next round)
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegate Seats, Get Close To Taking Control Or Totally Take It

2020

1) Democrat wins Virginia For President in route to White House
2) Warner Holds His Senate Seat

2021

1) Hold Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General
2) Win 4-5 House of Delegates Seats, Take Control of the Chamber

2022

1) Fair Redistricting
2) Ant-Voter Suppression Legislation: Move elections to even years, statewide offices and state senate races to Presidential years, automatic voter registration, vote by mail, repeal of voter ID, same day registration, massive expansion of non-excuse early voting, restoration of felon voting rights, statewide holiday for election day, expand voting hours to 10PM Eastern, reduce residency requirements
3) Amendment to allow Governors to run for reelection

Ambitious, but not out of the realm of possibility, although I'm a bit worried about what 2021 would look like under a Democratic president.

Also, why are you interested in expanding voting hours to 10 PM?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on May 15, 2017, 12:43:29 PM
Corey Stewart seems likely to drop out on the GOP Side today.
Is this because of Richard Spencer's Tiki Torch Stunt?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on May 15, 2017, 01:01:09 PM
http://www.wusa9.com/mb/news/local/virginia/sources-corey-stewart-thinking-of-exiting-race-for-governor-/439821583 Corey Stewart to make statement at 7 PM Eastern on whether or not he's staying in the race, twitter political rumors are all abuzz that he is suspending campaign, but political twitter rumors are....well you know


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on May 15, 2017, 02:20:38 PM
Corey Stewart seems likely to drop out on the GOP Side today.
Is this because of Richard Spencer's Tiki Torch Stunt?

Talk about egg on the face for Corey lol.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 15, 2017, 04:45:56 PM
Northam quasi-internal from PPP has him up 45/35. (http://wavy.com/2017/05/15/poll-finds-northam-with-10-point-lead-over-perriello-in-race-for-governor/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 15, 2017, 04:51:18 PM
Northam quasi-internal from PPP has him up 45/35. (http://wavy.com/2017/05/15/poll-finds-northam-with-10-point-lead-over-perriello-in-race-for-governor/)

Which would be a 7 point uptick for Northam and a 10 point uptick for Perriello. Also:

Quote
Northam holds a 69 to six lead in Norfolk, a 43 to 23 lead in Richmond, and a 35 to 33 lead in Northern Virginia.

Making a county map prediction for this race is gonna be hard.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: TheSaint250 on May 15, 2017, 05:07:45 PM
If Corey Stewart is out, that just makes Ed Gillespie's job to win the primary easier and results in the Democrats wasting more money in the primary while Gillespie continues building up his war chest.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on May 15, 2017, 05:42:17 PM
Post-Schar poll of GOP primary:

()

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.80afedb505e1


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on May 16, 2017, 02:40:30 PM
Quote
WaPo-GMU poll of Virginia: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.77e62fe4c85a)

36% Approve
59% Disapprove

I don't see how any Republican wins with those numbers.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on May 16, 2017, 02:45:04 PM
Quote
WaPo-GMU poll of Virginia: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.77e62fe4c85a)

36% Approve
59% Disapprove

I don't see how any Republican wins with those numbers.


It's actually 36/60 among registered voters. I hope this is part of a staggered release and that they polled the Dem primary and the GE.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on May 16, 2017, 04:56:56 PM
Quote
WaPo-GMU poll of Virginia: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/post-schar-poll-finds-ed-gillespie-with-big-lead-for-gop-gubernatorial-nomination/2017/05/15/de15e92c-3992-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.77e62fe4c85a)

36% Approve
59% Disapprove

I don't see how any Republican wins with those numbers.


Good Ol' Trump screwed the pooch down in the Commonwealth.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: GoldenMainer on May 17, 2017, 07:29:07 AM
So I just watched the last candidate forum. Is Northam always this uninspiring of a debater/speaker or was this an off night?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on May 17, 2017, 05:04:11 PM
Ed Gillespie is running an ad with translations for Spanish, but also for Korean which you don't really see every day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXyhJ9c_i30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0qYhoLI8vQ


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shadows on May 18, 2017, 08:01:10 AM
Democrat Ralph Northam has outspent rival Tom Perriello by more than 2 to 1 on TV advertising  their media tracking showed Northam had spent $1.2 million while Perriello has spent more than $500,000.

http://www.newsplex.com/content/news/Northam-outspending-Perriello-in-governors-race-422823714.html

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Perriello has sold his financial holdings in a construction company interested in building President Donald Trump’s wall along the Mexican border and that has worked with Dominion Energy, a Perriello punching bag, on energy projects in Virginia.

In the Democratic primary, Perriello has highlighted his opposition to the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and Mountain Valley Pipeline projects as a key difference between his  and that of Ralph S. Northam. Taking a more establishment-friendly line , Northam has said they should be guided by sound science that protects the environment while arguing a governor has no authority over the federally approved projects. Perriello also has vowed to forgo political donations from Dominion.

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/perriello-sold-financial-stake-in-company-linked-to-pipeline-and/article_57969229-67c9-5102-9af1-ee81dc7609cf.html


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: SoLongAtlas on May 18, 2017, 09:35:15 AM
Link to the Lt. Gov. forum at Mason next week https://schar.gmu.edu/ltgov

Info if you want to go:

Date: May 23, 2017

Time: 6:30pm - 9:30pm

Location: George Mason University - Fairfax Campus


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on May 18, 2017, 02:49:36 PM
Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics
Internal Northam poll (May 15-17) has Northam +17 among LVs -- 50%-33%.

That's in contrast to today's WaPo poll, which had Perriello +2

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/865288534466457600


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Holmes on May 18, 2017, 02:50:40 PM
Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: _ on May 18, 2017, 02:54:00 PM
Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

Makes it far more interesting than the GOP Primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Deblano on May 20, 2017, 01:21:08 PM
Siobhan Dunnavant Withdraws [Bryce Reeves] Reeves Endorsement for LG

https://bearingdrift.com/2017/05/20/siobhan-dunnavan-withdraws-reeves-endorsement/

Quote
With less than a month until the Virginia Republican Primary, State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant has withdrawn her endorsement of fellow Senator Bryce Reeves in his run for lieutenant governor, a stunning development this late in the game.

Writing on Facebook, Senator Dunnavant explained how she came to that conclusion:

"Several weeks ago, the Reeves campaign for LG released an online ad featuring me and five other Republican members of the General Assembly — all female legislators. I had significant concerns about the message of the ad. Concerns about my endorsement, my name and my reputation being used in this way without my consent. My endorsement of Senator Reeves was intended as a positive affirmation of my belief that he would make a good Lieutenant Governor.

Running for office is extremely challenging, and I admire the fortitude it takes and the individuals who make the sacrifice. As Republicans, even as we compete for your votes, I believe we should stay focused on issues when campaigning, not identity politics and certainly not gender.

To his credit, when I called Senator Reeves to voice my concerns he said it was not his intention to offend me or any other woman. He apologized for not checking with me in advance and said that he would take down the ad. Later that week, I addressed this issue in front of the Henrico County Republican Committee at our monthly meeting with Senator Reeves present. I thanked him for pulling the ad and stated again that I wanted no part of such politics or message.

Disappointingly, the ad was posted online again yesterday, and I have received numerous inquiries about it once again. I object to the ad for several reasons.

It identifies a group of supporters based on gender and implies that this was part of a gender based issue agenda. We as Republicans should always reject “identity politics” and instead express a positive conservative vision for all Virginians.

In referencing Senator Vogel in the singular as his only opponent, this ad is also disrespectful of Delegate Glenn Davis who is running a spirited campaign for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor.

The ad singles out by reference Senator Vogel and directly implies that all of the other Republican women in the General Assembly are not supporting her on the basis of gender or some other unspoken issue. This is simply not the case.

I have high esteem and a great relationship with Senator Vogel and Delegate Glenn Davis.

I believe the message of the Republican Party is resounding and persuasive and that identity politics based on any demographic undermines our principles and dignity. I do not want to be associated with any message that could be perceived in that way and am therefore withdrawing my endorsement of Senator Reeves and have informed him so. With my withdrawal I hope to silence this ad as well as any negative reflection on either of the other candidates for Lieutenant Governor.

I wish all of the candidates the best with their campaigns, and like so many Virginia Republicans, I am anxious to support the nominee after June 13th."

Whether Senator Dunnavant’s endorsement withdrawal shakes up the race remains to be seen.

Republican voters will go to the polls on June 13 to vote for a GOP candidate to face the Democratic opponent in the November election. Ed Gillespie, Corey Stewart, and Senator Frank Wagner are running for Governor while the Lieutenant Governor race has Delegate Glenn Davis and Senators Jill Vogel and Bryce Reeves competing for the nomination. Attorney General candidate John Adams has no Republican opposition.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on May 20, 2017, 02:46:06 PM
Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

It is hard for me to see Perriello losing this if he leads in the public polls going in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on May 20, 2017, 03:09:02 PM
I'd have thought Vogel would have dropped out after those dirty tricks late last year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor-is-getting-ugly-in-virginia/2016/12/31/95c84ed0-cf84-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.e92b5d3d9b21

Granted, I haven't followed it since that article, so I don't know if it turned out to not be her, although the stupidity of this case would suggest it was indeed Vogel.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on May 20, 2017, 03:16:24 PM
I'd have thought Vogel would have dropped out after those dirty tricks late last year: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-gop-race-for-lieutenant-governor-is-getting-ugly-in-virginia/2016/12/31/95c84ed0-cf84-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.e92b5d3d9b21

Granted, I haven't followed it since that article, so I don't know if it turned out to not be her, although the stupidity of this case would suggest it was indeed Vogel.

At this point, I would expect Dems to hold the open VA-LG even if they lose VA-GOV.  That could be quite significant as a tied State Senate during the 2021 redistricting is a distinct possibility.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on May 20, 2017, 04:14:22 PM
My gut still says Northam will win the primary, but it's feeling very close. I'm confident that either would pretty easily win the general though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on June 01, 2017, 03:39:20 PM
WaPo did a series of video interviews with the five candidates:

Ralph Northam (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7930wRg9UK4)

Tom Perriello (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vLsDcP7H3g)

Frank Wagner (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13f0ue_79KQ)

Ed Gillespie (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsfWN7djhKY)

Crazy Corey Stewart (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGEVZ1biPd4)

It's also in transcript form.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on June 01, 2017, 04:11:34 PM
Perriello endorsed by Jon Grisham, so I may have to go with him now (only half serious)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2017, 08:28:20 AM
New Perriello ad heavily featuring Elizabeth Warren with appearances by Sanders and Obama (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Wt1m_UoRjM)

One thing I've really like about this campaign, outside of a few shots in the debates (which is expected), is just how positive and clean it has been. Baring anything changing here in the last 8 days I don't think either candidate will come out of the primary damaged.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on June 06, 2017, 12:46:29 PM
Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.
 (http://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-turnout-2017-primary/?utm_content=bufferc3c35&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 06, 2017, 01:15:04 PM
Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.
 (http://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-turnout-2017-primary/?utm_content=bufferc3c35&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.


Most of the Piedmont numbers are small for absentee and unless a surge of people come out of nowhere to vote in the primary, Piedmont (mostly rural), won't provide enough votes to make up t he difference with the shore and NoVA. Key here is C'ville, Perriello's base. He might, emphasis might, eek out a win with maxed out C'ville but that is a real stretch.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on June 06, 2017, 01:18:21 PM
Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.
 (http://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-turnout-2017-primary/?utm_content=bufferc3c35&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.


Most of the Piedmont numbers are small for absentee and unless a surge of people come out of nowhere to vote in the primary, Piedmont (mostly rural), won't provide enough votes to make up t he difference with the shore and NoVA. Key here is C'ville, Perriello's base. He might, emphasis might, eek out a win with maxed out C'ville but that is a real stretch.

What I wanted to show by highlighting those two regions was that there seems to be good enthusiasm in both candidates home regions.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 06, 2017, 02:39:50 PM
NYT on Dems. Reading between the lines, sounds like a single-digit Northam lead. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/us/politics/two-paths-arise-for-democrats-in-race-for-virginias-governor.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1&mtrref=t.co)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on June 06, 2017, 03:26:38 PM
NYT on Dems. Reading between the lines, sounds like a single-digit Northam lead. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/us/politics/two-paths-arise-for-democrats-in-race-for-virginias-governor.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1&mtrref=t.co)

Also in this article:

Quote
Edward-Isaac Dovere‏
Verified account
 
@IsaacDovere

Ralph Northam was concerned enough about Obama endorsing Perriello that he called Holder to head it off


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 07, 2017, 07:44:28 AM
My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.  (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653865?unlock=0B6VALKYVY5PUGAK&mref=homepage-free)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on June 07, 2017, 09:51:21 PM
My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.  (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653865?unlock=0B6VALKYVY5PUGAK&mref=homepage-free)
Sad. Perriello is an amazing candidate. But he should've run in '13.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on June 07, 2017, 09:58:01 PM
My hunch was correct: Kraushaar reports that Northam's internals have him up 9 & Perriello's outta gas.  (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653865?unlock=0B6VALKYVY5PUGAK&mref=homepage-free)
Sad. Perriello is an amazing candidate. But he should've run in '13.

There is always 2021.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Virginiá on June 07, 2017, 10:19:15 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on June 08, 2017, 08:01:59 AM

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

I like the system we have because it produced Warner and Kaine when it otherwise would not have.

As for Perriello, he belongs in Congress much more. He should run for whatever district contains Charlottesville after 2021 (which may be more winnable after redistricting), and then he can move up the Virginia totem pole if he so chooses.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 08, 2017, 08:23:52 AM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Gass3268 on June 08, 2017, 08:24:09 AM

I wouldn't be surprised if Herring runs then. Virginia gubernatorial candidates seem to run on a "my turn"-type basis. I actually would have really liked it if Perriello had just run for Lt. Gov this cycle and moved up the ladder from there. Not to say I particularly like the way things operate in VA, but I do like Tom and I'd like to see him in office.

I like the system we have because it produced Warner and Kaine when it otherwise would not have.

As for Perriello, he belongs in Congress much more. He should run for whatever district contains Charlottesville after 2021 (which may be more winnable after redistricting), and then he can move up the Virginia totem pole if he so chooses.

Unlikely dream scenario, Democrats have total control after 2021 and are able to redraw the 7th into a district that incorporates Charlottesville, the surrounding area that normally leans Democratic (Buckingham, Nelson, Prince Edward), removes as much of the hardcore Republican Richmond exurbs, but keeps the Richmond areas that swung hard to Clinton.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: BuckeyeNut on June 08, 2017, 08:46:24 AM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.
Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: KingSweden on June 08, 2017, 08:50:38 AM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.

Doubt Warner leaves, but yes. Perriello has a bright future in the Commonwealth


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on June 08, 2017, 12:35:02 PM
Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on June 08, 2017, 03:38:18 PM
Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.

Trust me. A LOT of people want that.

(Maybe not Virginians, but you know.)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: The Other Castro on June 08, 2017, 05:30:58 PM
I'm doing results volunteering for DDHQ from Alexandria.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Miles on June 08, 2017, 06:19:33 PM
^ Thanks!!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on June 10, 2017, 11:07:10 AM
Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.

Trust me. A LOT of people want that.

(Maybe not Virginians, but you know.)


You're right, we're good actually:

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on June 10, 2017, 12:04:34 PM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.
Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: publicunofficial on June 10, 2017, 12:36:28 PM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.
Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Fingers crossed for "Virginia gets a 12th district in 2022 and the seat that comes out of it is a NOVA to Charlottesville gerrymander"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Skill and Chance on June 10, 2017, 01:09:58 PM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.
Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Fingers crossed for "Virginia gets a 12th district in 2022 and the seat that comes out of it is a NOVA to Charlottesville gerrymander"

I think the Republican-controlled federal government and its budget cuts basically assures that VA won't get a 12th district.  If it's a court map, which is by far the most likely outcome given how many State Senate districts Clinton won, then it's Republicans who should be rooting for a 12th district.  A court would almost surely compress VA-10 into a compact Reston-Leesburg district on a 12 district map, which would be roughly 2:1 Dem voting by then.  Whereas an 11 district map with this decade's population growth would mean 2 of VA-01, VA-05 and VA-07 inevitably run out of rural central VA and get sucked further into NOVA and Richmond, probably enough to be tossup seats by 2022.  A 12 district court map probably ends up an ironclad 7R/5D, while an 11 district court map could be 4R/4D/3Swing.  In the event of a Republican map, it's still possible to draw a fairly safe 8R/4D, but between Henrico and Loudoun, it's no longer possible to do better than 7R/4D on an 11 district map if Clinton numbers hold.  In the unlikely event of a Democratic map, they would connect Charlottesville to the Dem parts of Richmond outside of VA-04, not to NOVA.  VA-07 would collapse into an I-64 district that voted for Clinton by 10-15 and VA-05 would pull east into the 2:1 Republican Richmond exurbs.  From there, VA-01 becomes as rural/exurban as possible to allow VA-02 to collapse further into Hampton roads until it is at least a Clinton +5-10 district.  Then reliably Dem areas get redistributed between the 3 NOVA seats until they are all about 60% Clinton for a safe 6D/5R map that means Comstock would be toast in 2022 (although it is unlikely she holds VA-10 that long as it is). 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 10, 2017, 01:26:30 PM
32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on June 10, 2017, 01:42:54 PM
32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

There are still a fair amount of people in Southwest VA who still think he's 'one of the good ones', and that's because he campaigned there a lot in his '96 Senate campaign and then his following gubernatorial run. It's why he won in 2001 and in 2008 by such a landslide. Unfortunately, in the 2014 political environment, the hatred of Obama combined with Warner's sleepy campaign, they weren't about to vote for him again.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 10, 2017, 06:01:01 PM
32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

There are still a fair amount of people in Southwest VA who still think he's 'one of the good ones', and that's because he campaigned there a lot in his '96 Senate campaign and then his following gubernatorial run. It's why he won in 2001 and in 2008 by such a landslide. Unfortunately, in the 2014 political environment, the hatred of Obama combined with Warner's sleepy campaign, they weren't about to vote for him again.
Always wondered why Warner won in such a landslide in 2008, even though McCain won the 9th district with 59% of the vote, and McCain was also the first Republican since 1972 to win Buchanan and Dickenson counties. If Periello's the nominee, do you think he would at least slightly over-perform a typical Democrat in VA-09 (SW VA) or even VA-06 (Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont)?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kevin on June 10, 2017, 08:19:57 PM
Anyone know where I can see VA absentee vote numbers if possible?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Miles on June 10, 2017, 09:10:34 PM
^ Absentee voting isn't a big thing in VA, but here's what the state has:

- Democratic Primary (http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Democratic%20Primary/Site/Statistics/Absentee.html)

- Republican Primary (http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Statistics/Absentee.html)



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: Miles on June 11, 2017, 02:47:52 AM
Perriello should run for Warner's seat if he retires (hopefully) in 2020.
Warner'll only be 65 in 2020. He's not going anywhere unless he gives up the seat to run for POTUS.

Assuming he loses the in primary (or in the general), his best bet might be to carpetbag into one of the NOVA districts.  VA-05 isn't happening again for Democrats unless they control redistricting outright, and the state would have to do a full Arkansas 2012 for that to happen by 2021.  Connolly and Beyer in VA-11 and VA-08 are both older than Warner and if Comstock holds on next year (unlikely but far from impossible), he could run for VA-10 in 2020.  Any of those CDs would be safe for him for a long time and he is young enough to eventually be Speaker of the House if he wants to.

Similarly, if Northam loses the primary, he is the best possible candidate for VA-02 in 2018.  VA Dems should draft him into it right away.

Perriello already lives in NOVA now, FWIW. It's transient enough that he could easily overcome carpetbagging.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2017, 10:58:58 AM
Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Tom Perriello to run for Va. governor: report
Post by: heatcharger on June 11, 2017, 11:22:41 AM
Always wondered why Warner won in such a landslide in 2008, even though McCain won the 9th district with 59% of the vote, and McCain was also the first Republican since 1972 to win Buchanan and Dickenson counties. If Periello's the nominee, do you think he would at least slightly over-perform a typical Democrat in VA-09 (SW VA) or even VA-06 (Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont)?

I think Perriello could overperform the 'typical Democrat' in Appalachia, for sure.

How much better though? In my estimation, not all that much. He's not running on the platform and persona he had in 2008-2010, since he's spent most of his political capital consolidating the Sanders base and showing off his relationship with Obama, a figure still deeply hated in that entire region of the country.

And in relation to Northam, I think he'd be trading a slight overperformance in the Western part of the state for potentially underperforming in NoVA and in the Tidewater, which is a net negative for a Democrat.

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

Dang.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 11, 2017, 11:37:21 AM
Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

:D

0% undecided, though?  That doesn't sound realistic.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 11, 2017, 12:08:29 PM
Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

I am highly skeptical of this pollster.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on June 11, 2017, 06:07:06 PM
Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

I am highly skeptical of this pollster.

I am as well.  Nominating Stewart for Governor with Trump as President would probably destroy the VA GOP for a generation.  I have to think they won't jump that shark.  Also, I do think Perriello will win, but barely, not by 8.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 11, 2017, 06:16:12 PM
It's an open primary, so more non-partisans are voting in the competitive Democratic primary, leaving the Republican electorate to have more true believers in it. I don't see it happening though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2017, 08:07:32 PM
If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 11, 2017, 08:19:33 PM
If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 11, 2017, 08:33:13 PM
If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

That won't take much. Nominating Stewart shouldn't even be necessary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2017, 08:49:11 PM
If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 11, 2017, 08:52:16 PM
If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

About 2.5


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 11, 2017, 08:58:03 PM
If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

How many seats do they even have there these days?

About 2.5

The Stewart apocalypse would be further out in NOVA and it the Richmond area.  Between Henrico, Loudoun and Prince William, there are 10+ Clinton Republican seats.

Yup, plus the VaTech seat in the SW.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 11, 2017, 11:15:34 PM
Hampton University did a poll, but it was poorly conducted, in my opinion. (http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/polls/20170613_va_governor_poll/exec_summ.cfm) McAullife's approval at 60% is awesome though.

I'd honestly rather have Gillespie win the primary, even if Stewart is a slightly easier opponent to defeat. The campaign would devolve into such Trumpian nonsense, and I'd prefer not hear any more about Confederate statues ever again.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Beet on June 12, 2017, 04:03:15 AM
Lol, Perriello wins over Trump voter with $15 minimum wage:

"Twelve hours later, Perriello entered a rest stop in rural Ashland with his hair disheveled, tie removed, and voice groggy and bordering on slurring. No customers to be found at 2:15 a.m., he introduced himself to the clerk staffing the convenience store.

“How’s your job?” he asked.

“I make $9.66 an hour after working for years,” Candace Niles, 27, said with a sigh. “I’m a single mom with three kids.”

“Would it change your life much if minimum wage was $15 an hour?” Perriello asked, referencing a policy he and Northam support but Republicans in the legislature oppose.

“Fifteen dollars, that would be amazing,” Niles said. “This job sucks.”

Niles said she doesn’t pay much attention to politics and probably hasn’t voted in state races, but she backed Trump in November because he seemed to have her interests at heart. Even though Perriello is an outspoken Trump critic (and he didn’t mention the president or his Democratic affiliation), Niles said he won her vote just by suggesting policies that could help."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-gubernatorial-candidates-make-final-pitches-before-tuesdays-primary/2017/06/11/be207142-4c56-11e7-a186-60c031eab644_story.html?hpid=hp_local-news_vagovpush640pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.65474a9d7192

I think I'll be really sad when this guy loses due to be outspent by Northam. If you're in Virginia guys vote Perriello. Please!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 12, 2017, 06:33:15 AM
@Beet great dedication by Perriello but I still think he will lose the primary.

As far as Stewart goes, he will lose in a landslide if he gets the GOP nod. In VA they call him the Southern Avenger lol


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: retromike22 on June 12, 2017, 03:01:26 PM
We talk a little about the primary in the last third of our podcast:

Ep. 5.0(b): NeverAgain on Taxes, Tax Reform, and Virginia 2017

Knight of Vice Czars Retromike interviews AFR's newly annointed Vice Czar for U.S. Revenue & Taxation, NeverAgain. The pair discuss Greg Gianforte's win in Montana, the general structure of federal taxation, proposals for tax reform, and the 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Election.

Listen here! (https://soundcloud.com/atlas-free/ep-50bneveragain-on-taxes-tax-reform-and-virginia-2017)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 12, 2017, 03:57:09 PM
I can see this Democratic gubernatorial primary heading towards a recount. That would be Ed Gillespie's dream, as whoever wins the Democratic nod could be damaged in the general election, but in 2008, people said that about Obama vs. Clinton in the Democratic primary, and McCain lost to Obama in a landslide.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 12, 2017, 06:46:41 PM
Politico says Dem race is a tossup.  (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/12/virginia-governor-primary-race-2017-239434)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 12, 2017, 09:17:46 PM
Politico says Dem race is a tossup.  (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/12/virginia-governor-primary-race-2017-239434)

Insightful.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 13, 2017, 07:54:47 AM
CNN: Magic Dem number is 375k. Lower good for Northam, higher good for Perriello. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/13/politics/what-to-watch-in-virginia-primary/index.html)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Shadows on June 13, 2017, 09:13:32 AM
Perriello is going to be the strong candidate if he can get such a good turnout among young people & disillusioned people who are likely to stay at home. He's expanding the party beyond the core Dem base.

Anyways, both candidates look solid vs the GOP one !


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 09:59:16 AM
I see Northam winning by 6 points tonight. Perriello should have ran for Lt. Governor, or ran for his old congressional seat that he lost in 2010.

I don't see him challenging Sen. Tim Kaine as a progressive vs. centrist battle like this year's contest.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Jeppe on June 13, 2017, 10:18:13 AM
Really hoping Platt wins the Lt. Governor race, but it's probably gonna be Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 10:54:56 AM
Just voted Northam/Fairfax/Delaney (67th district). Turnout seemed pretty low.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on June 13, 2017, 12:01:48 PM
Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Progressive on June 13, 2017, 12:24:49 PM
Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

My GOP/political friends in VA (or DC) have been telling me for days that they think it's not impossible for Stewart to pull an upset or come very close to Gillespie. They posit that GOP turnout might be depressed in NoVa due to dissatisfaction with Trump but Trump supporters will come out strong for Stewart.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on June 13, 2017, 01:03:34 PM
How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 01:10:14 PM
How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?

It's Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 01:11:31 PM
Is there any chance at all of a Stewart or Wagner upset?

My GOP/political friends in VA (or DC) have been telling me for days that they think it's not impossible for Stewart to pull an upset or come very close to Gillespie. They posit that GOP turnout might be depressed in NoVa due to dissatisfaction with Trump but Trump supporters will come out strong for Stewart.

Also if you remember from the polls there was still a lot of undecided voters on the GOP side. Past polling shows that those folks usually come for the Western part of the state, which I imagine should help Stewart.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Deblano on June 13, 2017, 02:05:35 PM
Just got back from voting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 13, 2017, 02:08:41 PM
How is it possible that someone who literally described themselves as a "fiscal conservative" is in position to win a Democratic primary?

Most people not named RINO Tom realize that a "fiscal conservative" can indeed win a Democratic primary. That being said, I doubt Northam is much to the right of Perriello on any issue.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 02:10:29 PM
Voting Northam after work. First time voting in a Dem primary but have voted Dem in a presidential before.

Great results tracker on the NYT site https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-primary-elections


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Progressive on June 13, 2017, 02:20:32 PM
So, anecdotally I'm hearing very low turnout. But also anecdotally, I'm seeing on Twitter comparisons to 2009 and it seems that every precinct posted on Twitter is approaching 2009 turnout before the PM rush has started.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 02:35:44 PM
So, anecdotally I'm hearing very low turnout. But also anecdotally, I'm seeing on Twitter comparisons to 2009 and it seems that every precinct posted on Twitter is approaching 2009 turnout before the PM rush has started.

2009 had 40.4% turnout. Not too shabby but not great. I think it will be lower due to the fact that the GOP candidate is all but decided. Will be interesting to see if Confederate Corey comes in a close second (or if he gets the nod in a surprise - that will be something to see).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on June 13, 2017, 03:08:41 PM
Think Perriello's gonna squeak it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 03:09:54 PM
VA Department of Elections website (http://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/election-night-reporting/index.html).

If anyone is wondering how election night reporting usually goes in Virginia:

Chesterfield County usually reports first, with Virginia Beach reporting 5-10 minutes after. Northam will probably have a sizable lead at this point.

Then rural VA starts coming in rather quickly, which I expect Perriello to get large margins in, but I'm not entirely sure whether he'll take the lead at this point.

Richmond, and particularly Northern Virginia, historically take a long time to report, but in a pretty low turnout primary, I expect 95% reporting by 9 PM. We'll see if that's good enough to declare a winner (I suspect it might not be).

Also, I heard Prince William County modernized their return system after 2016, as the precinct results will get sent to the county office digitally, so hopefully that comes in earlier.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 03:54:08 PM
Yeah based on the scattered Twitter reports, turnout could be high enough to make this a close race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 04:38:45 PM
Just got back from voting at my Prince William polling place. Very light turnout but most people aren't back from work yet or still stuck on 95. One ME or Indian man came in with his family and when they asked for his id he said "Which one? Russian or US?" The whole room laughed, including me.

Edit: also want to point out that Northam was first on the Democratic primary ballot which will help him with undecideds or folks that don't care that much.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 04:40:15 PM
Turnout is apparently abysmal on the Republican side. Enough for an upset? We'll see.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 04:42:37 PM
Turnout is apparently abysmal on the Republican side. Enough for an upset? We'll see.

The Sothron Avenger might have his day! Lol


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on June 13, 2017, 04:48:41 PM
Turnout is apparently abysmal on the Republican side. Enough for an upset? We'll see.

The Sothron Avenger might have his day! Lol

Looks like my friend's choice to vote tactically against Stewart might have been smarter than I thought.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 04:55:31 PM
Anecdotal, but I'm driving around Alexandria right now and there are a ton of Perriello signs, a few Northam signs.

Edit: Also a few Gene Rossi signs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: AelroseB on June 13, 2017, 05:12:48 PM
What area of the city?  Del Ray seemed inundated with Northam signs when I was out today.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 05:23:54 PM
What area of the city?  Del Ray seemed inundated with Northam signs when I was out today.

I was around the Old Town area.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 05:51:39 PM
Anecdotal, but I'm driving around Alexandria right now and there are a ton of Perriello signs, a few Northam signs.

Edit: Also a few Gene Rossi signs.

That's weird because I literally have not seen a single Perriello or Northam sign in my immediate area. The only political yard signs I've seen in my territory of Fairfax Co. have been either Republican or for State Delegate, even at my voting precinct.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 05:55:23 PM
Anecdotal, but I'm driving around Alexandria right now and there are a ton of Perriello signs, a few Northam signs.

Edit: Also a few Gene Rossi signs.

That's weird because I literally have not seen a single Perriello or Northam sign in my immediate area. The only political yard signs I've seen in my territory of Fairfax Co. have been either Republican or for State Delegate, even at my voting precinct.

Hmm might have just been a weird, non representative area I was going by. Also, here are the Alexandria 4PM turnout numbers: Democrats 13.62%, Republicans 2.97%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:00:57 PM
Polls have closed


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 06:02:27 PM
Calling it right now that Perrielo and Stewart win, probably will be wrong though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 06:08:38 PM
If Northam wins: Progressives threaten to stay home.

If Perriello wins: Progressives brag about winning.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Progressive on June 13, 2017, 06:11:02 PM
ANY numbers yet?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 06:11:35 PM
If Northam wins: Progressives threaten to stay home.

If Perriello wins: Progressives brag about winning.

True. I wonder how Virginia centrists will vote. Gillespie? Write in Mark Warner?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:11:55 PM

Patience is a virtue.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Progressive on June 13, 2017, 06:12:21 PM

I'm a lifelong NYer =/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:18:36 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
740   69.2%
Tom Perriello
330   30.8
<1% reporting (9 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
349   43.5%
Corey Stewart
327   40.7
Frank Wagner
127   15.8
<1% reporting (10 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:19:35 PM
Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
617   60.9%
Susan Platt
257   25.4
Gene Rossi
139   13.7
<1% reporting (9 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Bryce Reeves
369   47.1%
Jill Vogel
262   33.5
Glenn Davis
152   19.4
<1% reporting (10 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 06:20:36 PM
If Northam wins: Progressives threaten to stay home.

If Perriello wins: Progressives brag about winning.

True. I wonder how Virginia centrists will vote. Gillespie? Write in Mark Warner?



Centrist Democrats will vote for their party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: JA on June 13, 2017, 06:21:28 PM
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ralph Northam
2,430   60.5%   
Tom Perriello
1,587   39.5   
1% reporting (20 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Edward Gillespie
1,619   46.3%   
Corey Stewart
1,516   43.3   
Frank Wagner
363   10.4   
1% reporting (24 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: McGovernForPrez on June 13, 2017, 06:22:21 PM
Corey Stewart is way too close for comfort.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:22:39 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
2,430   60.5%
Tom Perriello
1,587   39.5
1% reporting (20 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
1,619   46.3%
Corey Stewart
1,516   43.3
Frank Wagner
363   10.4
1% reporting (24 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
734   58.3%
Susan Platt
358   28.4
Gene Rossi
167   13.3
1% reporting (13 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Bryce Reeves
758   47.9%
Jill Vogel
555   35.1
Glenn Davis
270   17.1
1% reporting (16 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 06:24:21 PM
Gillespie is doing terrible in Chesterfield County lol. It's just a few precincts though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: JA on June 13, 2017, 06:24:28 PM
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ralph Northam
6,493   54.2%   
Tom Perriello
5,489   45.8   
1% reporting (27 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Edward Gillespie
3,788   44.6%   
Corey Stewart
3,743   44.1   
Frank Wagner
961   11.3   
1% reporting (31 of 2,561 precincts)

I'll just let Dwarven Dragon post the updates from now on. No need for two people doing it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: OkThen on June 13, 2017, 06:25:02 PM
Stewart winning in Loudoun county right now lol....


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: McGovernForPrez on June 13, 2017, 06:25:13 PM
This looks like its gonna be a nail biter for both parties tonight.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 06:30:55 PM
Stewart now barely up


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Deblano on June 13, 2017, 06:31:28 PM
I'm kinda feeling like Stewart will win at this rate. :(


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 06:31:35 PM
This will be a long night.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:32:16 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
12,522   55.5%
Tom Perriello
10,032   44.5
4% reporting (101 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Corey Stewart
5,764   44.6%
Edward Gillespie
5,622   43.5
Frank Wagner
1,531   11.9
3% reporting (74 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
9,197   48.6%
Susan Platt
7,412   39.2
Gene Rossi
2,300   12.2
3% reporting (85 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
6,122   49.3%
Bryce Reeves
4,432   35.7
Glenn Davis
1,852   14.9
3% reporting (71 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 06:33:17 PM
Ed Gillespie can go back to lobbying or run in 2021 under favorable Republican circumstances.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 06:34:55 PM
Hmm, a few Appalachian counties are voting like they did in the 2016 Dem primary, which was for Clinton by a lot. Let's see if that holds.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:37:54 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
25,038   55.3%
Tom Perriello
20,199   44.7
9% reporting (219 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
20,141   44.6%
Corey Stewart
19,235   42.6
Frank Wagner
5,741   12.7
13% reporting (330 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
19,690   48.5%
Susan Platt
15,951   39.3
Gene Rossi
4,979   12.3
8% reporting (212 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
15,484   43.4%
Bryce Reeves
14,632   41.1
Glenn Davis
5,522   15.5
10% reporting (250 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 06:40:55 PM
Gillespie pulling out with a lead, he should be fine.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on June 13, 2017, 06:41:58 PM
Man I wish we got a Northam vs Southern Avenger race that would end the Va rep party


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: bilaps on June 13, 2017, 06:44:06 PM
Gillespie pulling out with a lead, he should be fine.

Northam is pulling out, he should be fine. Not sure for Gillespie


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 06:44:27 PM
Dave Wasserman calls it for Northam


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:45:22 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
51,589   57.3%
Tom Perriello
38,519   42.7
18% reporting (458 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
27,166   43.7%
Corey Stewart
25,878   41.7
Frank Wagner
9,060   14.6
17% reporting (440 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
43,498   48.4%
Susan Platt
35,786   39.8
Gene Rossi
10,653   11.8
18% reporting (468 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
24,651   42.7%
Bryce Reeves
23,809   41.2
Glenn Davis
9,311   16.1
15% reporting (380 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 06:45:47 PM
Sheesh, Perriello is getting BTFO in NOVA and Hampton Roads.

Lights out for Team Perriello.  Looks like we get the expected Northam vs. Gillespie race.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:46:31 PM
Barring a shock in Prince William, Northam seems okay. Gillespie is clearly on the ropes though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 06:46:58 PM
dat east-west divide.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 06:48:05 PM
Big dump of votes came out of Virginia Beach, which is why people are saying Northam has this. I want to wait for more of Fairfax to come in before I say he's the winner.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kamala on June 13, 2017, 06:48:43 PM
On the LTG race, Fairfax is running away with it, while Vogel is in even a more precarious position than Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 06:50:04 PM
Decision Desk calls it for Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 06:50:54 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
78,419   57.3%
Tom Perriello
58,415   42.7
27% reporting (704 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
39,430   43.4%
Corey Stewart
37,903   41.7
Frank Wagner
13,578   14.9
24% reporting (620 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
63,720   48.3%
Susan Platt
52,321   39.6
Gene Rossi
15,974   12.1
28% reporting (711 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
37,167   43.0%
Bryce Reeves
34,983   40.5
Glenn Davis
14,192   16.4
24% reporting (606 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 06:52:26 PM
Man, for all the "this is definitely Hillary v. Bernie again" talk, it looks like Republicans are gonna come out of this more divided, which is great news. Like I said before though, a campaign against Stewart is highly likely to turn stupid, which is why I'm rooting for a recount with Gillespie coming out on top.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: publicunofficial on June 13, 2017, 06:52:38 PM
Perriello is too good for the spineless bureaucrats of NoVa. Sad!

Oh well, best wishes to Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 06:53:06 PM
Virginia Democrats not ready to be uncucked, sadly.  Oh, well.  Perriello's young and I'm sure he'll run again somewhere.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: VPH on June 13, 2017, 06:53:48 PM
What's with the massive variance between relatively similar counties? 76% Perriello in Giles but 31% Perriello in Buchanan? Mind you, Buchanan always churns out interesting results. For example, Hillary won it MASSIVELY versus Bernie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: KingSweden on June 13, 2017, 06:54:51 PM
Perriello is too good for the spineless bureaucrats of NoVa. Sad!

Oh well, best wishes to Northam.

This race was more national vs state interests, really. Northam and Tom P pretty close on most issues


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 06:55:52 PM
It looks like Fairfax County is going to end up saving a Republican, Gillespie's lead is slightly increasing as it comes in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: GlobeSoc on June 13, 2017, 06:56:31 PM
What makes me much more concerned is how tight the GOP primary is.

Virginia Democrats not ready to be uncucked, sadly.  Oh, well.  Perriello's young and I'm sure he'll run again somewhere.

Yeah, I think that this particular primary is unique in that it didn't really burn any goodwill that Perriello may have generated. This isn't one where either side went all out, so I could see him going for a lower office and then returning once he's got a bigger constituency.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 06:56:39 PM
Perriello is too good for the spineless bureaucrats of NoVa. Sad!

Oh well, best wishes to Northam.

This race was more national vs state interests, really. Northam and Tom P pretty close on most issues

They're close now on most issues.  I'm praying that Northam doesn't cuck progressives out again when he's inaugurated next year.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 06:56:46 PM
Go here if you want to see maps by precinct (http://www.vpap.org/electionresults/governor/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 06:57:04 PM
Perriello is too good for the spineless bureaucrats of NoVa. Sad!

Oh well, best wishes to Northam.

This race was more national vs state interests, really. Northam and Tom P pretty close on most issues

Pretty much.

I voted for Perriello, but there isn't a real major difference between him and Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Deblano on June 13, 2017, 06:57:08 PM
I do expect Gillespie and Vogel to get a boost once more precincts from NoVA come in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 06:59:17 PM
I do expect Gillespie and Vogel to get a boost once more precincts from NoVA come in.

Gillespie is not sweeping NoVA, Stewart is winning many precicents in Fairfax and he could win Loudon County.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: bilaps on June 13, 2017, 07:02:02 PM
Wasserman says big reason for Northam easy win are AA voters


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:02:47 PM
It looks like Fairfax County is going to end up saving a Republican, Gillespie's lead is slightly increasing as it comes in.

PW has yet to report and there's a LOT of rurals left

True, Gillespie is far from out of the woods, but the precincts yet to report in Fairfax should be favorable to him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:02:51 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
103,376   57.1%
Tom Perriello
77,815   42.9
37% reporting (943 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
61,757   43.6%
Corey Stewart
59,239   41.8
Frank Wagner
20,758   14.6
40% reporting (1,016 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
81,298   48.6%
Susan Platt
65,978   39.4
Gene Rossi
20,020   12.0
37% reporting (941 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
56,715   42.0%
Bryce Reeves
55,717   41.3
Glenn Davis
22,558   16.7
39% reporting (989 of 2,561 precincts)

I am not making any calls until we see something from Prince William.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Virginiá on June 13, 2017, 07:03:08 PM
Doesn't a Vogel win in the Lt Gov GOP primary essentially guarantee Democrats hold that office? She was up to a lot of shady stuff in her race against Bryce, and iirc there is still a lawsuit on that. Seems ripe for dragging her down in a general election where the problems of the national GOP will be weighing her campaign down.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: YPestis25 on June 13, 2017, 07:05:56 PM
Washington Post calls it for Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 13, 2017, 07:07:51 PM
Uhh Loudoun just went from 90 precincts reporting to 48 on NYT.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 07:08:01 PM
Pet theory: more "swing voters" voted for Northam because his last name is cooler.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 13, 2017, 07:09:08 PM
Doesn't a Vogel win in the Lt Gov GOP primary essentially guarantee Democrats hold that office? She was up to a lot of shady stuff in her race against Bryce, and iirc there is still a lawsuit on that. Seems ripe for dragging her down in a general election where the problems of the national GOP will be weighing her campaign down.

Vogel and Bryce were going after each other with accusations. I don't believe Vogel is any worse off on this front than Bryce would be, though perhaps that's not saying much.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:09:20 PM
Uhh Loudoun just went from 90 precincts reporting to 48 on NYT.

Virginia DoE has 93 of 94 precincts reporting out of Loudoun. Northam barely won it as I expected. Gillespie is nursing a 9 vote lead, which is very embarrassing for him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on June 13, 2017, 07:09:44 PM
Come on Corey!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 07:10:13 PM
Hoping Gillespie wins this.

And larger Northam win than I thought.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:10:25 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
125,926   56.2%
Tom Perriello
98,284   43.8
44% reporting (1,118 of 2,561 precincts)


Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
74,799   43.7%
Corey Stewart
71,964   42.1
Frank Wagner
24,372   14.2
46% reporting (1,169 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
100,738   48.5%
Susan Platt
82,406   39.7
Gene Rossi
24,684   11.9
42% reporting (1,076 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Bryce Reeves
70,184   41.8%
Jill Vogel
69,616   41.5
Glenn Davis
27,991   16.7
45% reporting (1,162 of 2,561 precincts)

I am not making any calls until we see something from Prince William.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kamala on June 13, 2017, 07:10:50 PM
Gillespie's lead down to fewer than 3000 votes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: VPH on June 13, 2017, 07:11:39 PM
What's up with Buchanan!? Stewart won by less than 3%?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kamala on June 13, 2017, 07:14:01 PM
Vogel' lead down to fewer than 500 votes.
Who would've thought that the two republican primaries would be more exciting than the Democratic ones!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 13, 2017, 07:15:33 PM
Wasserman says big reason for Northam easy win are AA voters

Less than one might expect, if the map is anything to go by.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kamala on June 13, 2017, 07:15:48 PM
Vogel' lead down to fewer than 500 votes.
Who would've thought that the two republican primaries would be more exciting than the Democratic ones!

Reeves takes the lead!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kamala on June 13, 2017, 07:18:03 PM
Vogel' lead down to fewer than 500 votes.
Who would've thought that the two republican primaries would be more exciting than the Democratic ones!

Reeves takes the lead!

Vogel takes it back!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 07:19:41 PM


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:21:17 PM
Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
161,403   56.1%
Tom Perriello
126,347   43.9
57% reporting (1,457 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
94,661   44.1%
Corey Stewart
89,872   41.8
Frank Wagner
30,226   14.1
59% reporting (1,505 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
131,556   48.7%
Susan Platt
106,683   39.5
Gene Rossi
32,041   11.9
56% reporting (1,441 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
86,588   41.6%
Bryce Reeves
86,401   41.6
Glenn Davis
34,915   16.8
59% reporting (1,499 of 2,561 precincts)


I am not making any calls until we see something from Prince William.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Nyvin on June 13, 2017, 07:22:55 PM
Wow,  never would've thought it'd be the Republican primary that's so much more competitive.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:24:02 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION: NORTHAM WINS DEM PRIMARY

Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
175,178   55.8%

Tom Perriello
138,727   44.2
62% reporting (1,595 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 07:24:23 PM
This is actually kinda exciting. A little nervous though. I want Gillespie to win


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 13, 2017, 07:24:37 PM
Prince William just dropped almost everything.

Tied on D side, Heavy Stewart on the Rs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 07:24:53 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION: NORTHAM WINS DEM PRIMARY

Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
175,178   55.8%

Tom Perriello
138,727   44.2
62% reporting (1,595 of 2,561 precincts)

Don't you mean "Capitalism wins Dem primary?"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 07:26:30 PM
Ed will win this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:27:10 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION: FAIRFAX WINS DEM PRIMARY

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
152,634   48.5%

Susan Platt
124,553   39.6
Gene Rossi
37,481   11.9
65% reporting (1,674 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: _ on June 13, 2017, 07:27:22 PM
Corey no get back in the museum.  The civil war ended 152 years ago.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:27:24 PM
Looks like PW Republicans love their hometown moron. Gillespie leads by 1.4k votes right now after that dump. Still think Fairfax will save him though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 07:28:03 PM
Prince William just dropped almost everything.

Tied on D side, Heavy Stewart on the Rs.

This means Stewart should win some more precicents in Fairfax County.  


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:28:19 PM
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
107,442   43.6%
Corey Stewart
105,065   42.6
Frank Wagner
33,979   13.8
67% reporting (1,718 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
99,279   41.8%
Bryce Reeves
97,793   41.2
Glenn Davis
40,491   17.0
66% reporting (1,682 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Skye on June 13, 2017, 07:28:36 PM
Now this is a bit unexpected. Hope Gillespie pulls it off.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on June 13, 2017, 07:29:19 PM
Another victory for La Resistance ::)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:30:08 PM

This doesn't make any sense.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Skye on June 13, 2017, 07:30:23 PM
Prince William just dropped almost everything.

Tied on D side, Heavy Stewart on the Rs.

This means Stewart should win some more precicents in Fairfax County.  
Stewart is from PW County, so maybe we'll have to wait a bit.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 07:30:51 PM

Yeah, both Democrats ran as anti-Trump progressives.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on June 13, 2017, 07:31:25 PM
Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 07:32:04 PM

Arguably, Northam was more anti-Trump.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 07:33:01 PM
As always urban precincts are counted last but considering white urbanites will lean Perriello will tie with AA urbanites leaning Northam it wont change the margin that much.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on June 13, 2017, 07:33:39 PM

Arguably, Northam was more anti-Trump.
But he isn't the more progressive of the two. La Resistance is more than anti-Trump, it must lead to muh political revolution.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 07:33:53 PM
It looks like Northam will win. Virginia Democrats are pretty center-left I would say.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 07:33:54 PM

They both ran against Trump but ok werk


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on June 13, 2017, 07:34:16 PM
Oh and Campbell Co. will look like the other central VA areas


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 07:35:50 PM
Gillespie got obliterated in Prince William


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 07:35:55 PM
Is Perriello popular with black voters?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 07:36:00 PM

Arguably, Northam was more anti-Trump.
But he isn't the more progressive of the two. La Resistance is more than anti-Trump, it must lead to muh political revolution.

They are about the same when it comes to progressivism. The difference is Northam's record and state credentials, while Perriello had more national support.

On top of that Democrats saw a huge surge in turnout (might even break VA record). The "Resistance" is alive and well here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 07:36:11 PM
There is really no rhyme or rhythm to who's winning what precicents in Fairfax County on the Republican side, other than the Great Falls area.  


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on June 13, 2017, 07:37:08 PM
Someone who used "cuckservative" on Reddit should not be governor. Stewart is appalling. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 07:38:15 PM

Arguably, Northam was more anti-Trump.
But he isn't the more progressive of the two. La Resistance is more than anti-Trump, it must lead to muh political revolution.

They both ran against Trump.  I've been living in the state for two years and can tell you that much.

The VDP isn't a left-wing or center-left party much as it is a centrist party.  That's just the way it is.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on June 13, 2017, 07:38:26 PM
Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:38:58 PM
Perriello has been narrowing the margin for a while now, he's up to 45.1% if anyone cares.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: VPH on June 13, 2017, 07:39:15 PM
Anybody else think Perriello should run for Congress?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 07:41:06 PM
Anybody else think Perriello should run for Congress?

He should take on Garrett for the 5th district. He will have a decent chance of winning if 2018 is truly a wave election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: NeverAgain on June 13, 2017, 07:41:17 PM
Anybody else think Perriello should run for Congress?

Of course. That should be his next goal.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kamala on June 13, 2017, 07:41:22 PM
Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.

West Virginia is starting to look a lot like West Virginia on the Republican side.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 07:42:18 PM
Looks like Gillespie's going to win, but it's gonna be really close.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 07:42:47 PM
PWC back down to 70% reporting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 07:42:55 PM
Anybody else think Perriello should run for Congress?

He should take on Garrett for the 5th district. He will have a decent chance of winning if 2018 is truly a wave election.

lol


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:43:38 PM

Nah (http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Governor.html).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Heisenberg on June 13, 2017, 07:43:45 PM
Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.
Yeah but I'm not really surprised. Eastern Virginia = Establishment, Western Virginia = Populist I guess.

NYT just called LG-D for Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 07:44:16 PM
Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 07:45:37 PM
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.  There was this guy who lived next door to me and my mom whom my mom would give cigarettes to occasionally.  His response each time: "That's mighty white of you."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 07:46:27 PM
Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...


It's all over the place in central VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 13, 2017, 07:46:41 PM
Justin Fairfax and Ralph Northam officially have my endorsement now. I want Bryce Reeves and Corey Stewart to win their primaries though. I think they are the weakest in a general. But omg look at Corey Stewart the dark horse go!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 07:46:52 PM
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.
I mean, I knew there'd be bitter clingers in SWVA, but in a supposedly affluent, educated, and urbane county like Prince William?!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Heisenberg on June 13, 2017, 07:48:06 PM
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.
Well, I'd expect Herring to run for Governor in 2021, and Fairfax may not want to challenge him, and instead just run for reelex. When the AG and LG offices are both held by the smae party, I've noticed that things like that sometimes happen (2009, 2017).
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.
I mean, I knew there'd be bitter clingers in SWVA, but in a supposedly affluent, educated, and urbane county like Prince William?!

I doubt most people in Prince William feel that way. From my understanding his openness of the Confederate Flag is relatively new (strange given he's originally from Duluth, MN). I think he's DOA if he stands for reelection as Prince William CE.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 07:50:06 PM
Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...


It's all over the place in central VA.
It's all over the place even in Northeast MA and Maine is like the confederate haven of the north.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 07:50:19 PM
I guess the moral of the story is that even if you want to be a far right insurgent candidate, you still need some urban support to win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 07:50:33 PM
Wagner is taking away a lot of needed support for Gillespie in the Hampton Roads area.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 07:51:18 PM
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.
Well, I'd expect Herring to run for Governor in 2021, and Fairfax may not want to challenge him, and instead just run for reelex. When the AG and LG offices are both held by the smae party, I've noticed that things like that sometimes happen (2009, 2017).
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.
I mean, I knew there'd be bitter clingers in SWVA, but in a supposedly affluent, educated, and urbane county like Prince William?!

I doubt most people in Prince William feel that way. From my understanding his openness of the Confederate Flag is relatively new (strange given he's originally from Duluth, MN). I think he's DOA if he stands for reelection as Prince William CE.

Someone put a huge like 20 foot rebel flag on the side of 95 south in PW county plus a lot of southern military, esp Marines sympathize with the rebs here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 07:51:22 PM
My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.
I mean, I knew there'd be bitter clingers in SWVA, but in a supposedly affluent, educated, and urbane county like Prince William?!

There are racist rednecks everywhere.  I'm in VA Beach.  Hell, I regularly encounter people with accents so thick you'd need a translator to understand them.

Just because a place is affluent, educated, or urban doesn't mean it's inherently less rednecky or racist.  That's a notion I've been trying to get progressives to abandon for a long time.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 07:51:28 PM
Wagner is taking away a lot of needed support for Gillespie in the Hampton Roads area.
If Gillespie loses, many people (including yours truly) will say he should've dropped out and endorsed Gillespie


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 07:51:45 PM
Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...


It's all over the place in central VA.

Yeah. I pass like 10 driving between Richmond and Danville. They're a dime a dozen around here. Probably because symbols mean different things to different people.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 07:52:10 PM
Stewart is creeping up--only .5% behind Ed


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 13, 2017, 07:52:20 PM
Justin Fairfax and Ralph Northam officially have my endorsement now. I want Bryce Reeves and Corey Stewart to win their primaries though. I think they are the weakest in a general. But omg look at Corey Stewart the dark horse go!

I'm just finding it funny that the table turned on Gillespie and suddenly he is the one in a nail biter that nobody thought was competitive.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on June 13, 2017, 07:52:44 PM
I think Stewart will pull it out, and Northam utterly destroys him in November.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 07:52:49 PM
Remember when someone posted that a Northam/Perriello recount woukd be perfect for Gillespie?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Deblano on June 13, 2017, 07:53:01 PM
What was the difference between Justin Fairfax and Susan Platt?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 13, 2017, 07:53:16 PM
OMG go team Corey! I sooo want him to be yalls nominee!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:54:27 PM
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
129,867   43.5%
Corey Stewart
128,529   43.0
Frank Wagner
40,163   13.5
83% reporting (2,120 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
119,372   42.1%
Bryce Reeves
115,985   40.9
Glenn Davis
48,049   17.0
81% reporting (2,077 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 07:55:13 PM
Stewart now 0.4% behind.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 07:55:22 PM
OMG go team Corey! I sooo want him to be yalls nominee!

Same. It'll be the first big election where I actually feel like I could swing to either candidate. I want to have a choice for a change.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 07:56:36 PM
Remember when someone posted that a Northam/Perriello recount woukd be perfect for Gillespie?

Maybe we shouldn't listen on bronz on literally anything?

What was the difference between Justin Fairfax and Susan Platt?

Eh, Platt's background as a party operative led her to be more of a fire-breathing anti-Trump progressive, while Fairfax was a U.S. attorney, and he campaigned more on bread-and-butter Democratic issues. Both were good to me, but I voted Fairfax because I think he can win by more.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: _ on June 13, 2017, 07:56:52 PM
COREY GET BACK IN THE MUSEUM YOU'LL MAKE THE RACE SAFE D!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 07:56:58 PM
I feel like Gillespie will still probably win, but this must be hugely embarrassing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Smash255 on June 13, 2017, 07:57:11 PM
Keeps ticking close.  The amount of Fairfax left probably is enough for Gillepsie to eek it out, but wow


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Young Conservative on June 13, 2017, 07:58:52 PM
Stewart's performance in NOVA is stunning. Periello's performance is worse than expecting, yet another blow to progressives.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:59:01 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION: VOGEL WINS REP PRIMARY

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
124,685   42.1%

Bryce Reeves
121,124   40.9
Glenn Davis
50,159   16.9
85% reporting (2,171 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 07:59:12 PM
Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 07:59:41 PM
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
134,669   43.5%
Corey Stewart
133,354   43.1
Frank Wagner
41,486   13.4
86% reporting (2,196 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 13, 2017, 07:59:44 PM
Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.

The proposed gas pipelines, among other things, is a contributor (Stewart and Perriello are both opposed)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 08:00:12 PM
I feel like Gillespie will still probably win, but this must be hugely embarrassing.

Probably goes to show that Gillespie is a weak candidate. Northam will be the safe choice. 2009 in reverse.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Young Conservative on June 13, 2017, 08:01:25 PM
Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.
Northam reminds me Charlie Crist: career politician in the sense that he will be anything to further his career.

Quick question: was the LG race supposed to be so close? I never saw any polls for it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 08:01:39 PM
Stewart's performance in NOVA is stunning. Periello's performance is worse than expecting, yet another blow to progressives.

It is hilarious how some of you on the right are trying to spin this.

Northam is a progressive.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Deblano on June 13, 2017, 08:01:54 PM
If Stewart wins, I am gonna vote Northam


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 08:02:48 PM
At least we don't have to deal with Prez or VP speculation for Perriello now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 08:03:18 PM
Perriello can run for Virginia governor in 2021 or 2025 or 2029. He could be the future of the Democratic Party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 08:03:37 PM
Kinda ironic: Gillespie surprised everyone by coming within less than 1 point of beating Warner in 2014.

Now, Stewart is surprising everyone by remaining within less than 1 point of Gillespie who, like Warner, will most likely win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 08:03:54 PM
At least we don't have to deal with Prez or VP speculation for Perriello now.

If he wins a congressional seat in 2018, he could be a dark horse for VP in 2020 or 2024.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Young Conservative on June 13, 2017, 08:04:27 PM
Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: LabourJersey on June 13, 2017, 08:05:20 PM
Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.
Northam reminds me Charlie Crist: career politician in the sense that he will be anything to further his career.

Quick question: was the LG race supposed to be so close? I never saw any polls for it.

Well it's not like Northam was a Democratic elected official in 2000/2004-- he was a private citizen. A person voting for a different party before running for office is a whole other ball game than switching parties altogether for pure political gain


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 08:05:33 PM
At least we don't have to deal with Prez or VP speculation for Perriello now.

If he wins a congressional seat in 2018, he could be a dark horse for VP in 2020 or 2024.

No for 2020, and it's a pointless exercise to speculate on 2024 right now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 08:06:07 PM
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
139,361   43.6%
Corey Stewart
137,332   42.9
Frank Wagner
43,276   13.5
88% reporting (2,265 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 08:06:27 PM
Gillespie's pulling away now. That should be that.

I think, especially in states with open primaries, the 2018 primaries may produce more Trumpian candidates than we expect.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 08:06:40 PM
I'm about 75% sure Gillespie has this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Young Conservative on June 13, 2017, 08:06:44 PM
Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.
Northam reminds me Charlie Crist: career politician in the sense that he will be anything to further his career.

Quick question: was the LG race supposed to be so close? I never saw any polls for it.

Well it's not like Northam was a Democratic elected official in 2000/2004-- he was a private citizen. A person voting for a different party before running for office is a whole other ball game than switching parties altogether for pure political gain
No, but but he nearly did switch parties a few years ago in quite the public debacle.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 08:08:58 PM
Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.
Northam reminds me Charlie Crist: career politician in the sense that he will be anything to further his career.

Quick question: was the LG race supposed to be so close? I never saw any polls for it.

Well it's not like Northam was a Democratic elected official in 2000/2004-- he was a private citizen. A person voting for a different party before running for office is a whole other ball game than switching parties altogether for pure political gain
No, but but he nearly did switch parties a few years ago in quite the public debacle.

Yesterday's miderate Virginia Republicans are today's Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 08:09:05 PM
Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.
Northam reminds me Charlie Crist: career politician in the sense that he will be anything to further his career.

Quick question: was the LG race supposed to be so close? I never saw any polls for it.

Well it's not like Northam was a Democratic elected official in 2000/2004-- he was a private citizen. A person voting for a different party before running for office is a whole other ball game than switching parties altogether for pure political gain
No, but but he nearly did switch parties a few years ago in quite the public debacle.
In other words, he'd be more of a Chuck Robb kind of Dem...centrist and moderate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 08:09:17 PM
Quote
Bob Marshall, who tried to pass VA's own bathroom bill, will face transgender Dem in seat Clinton won 55-40
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/874791887185510404

*snort*


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 08:11:09 PM
Quote
Bob Marshall, who tried to pass VA's own bathroom bill, will face transgender Dem in seat Clinton won 55-40
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/874791887185510404

*snort*
If this Dem is smart, she (he?  Is this a transwoman or transman?) will humanize this race as much as possible, showing that the bathroom issue is about people and not about abstract prejudices and fears.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 08:11:32 PM
Quote
Bob Marshall, who tried to pass VA's own bathroom bill, will face transgender Dem in seat Clinton won 55-40
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/874791887185510404

*snort*
If this Dem is smart, she (he?  Is this a transwoman or transman?) will humanize this race as much as possible, showing that the bathroom issue is about people and not about abstract prejudices and fears.


she


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 13, 2017, 08:14:19 PM
How did an anti-LGBT Pub get elected in such a Democrat-friendly district in the first place, anyway?  Or is this because of a redistricting case I hadn't heard about?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 08:14:24 PM
Stewart narrowing it from 0.7% to 0.6%

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
141,493   43.5%
Corey Stewart
139,519   42.9
Frank Wagner
44,293   13.6
90% reporting (2,311 of 2,561 precincts)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 08:14:46 PM
Tom Perriello:
"Congratulations to @RalphNortham. Let's go win this thing—united. Let's take back the House and ensure VA remains a firewall against hate."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 08:16:24 PM
How did an anti-LGBT Pub get elected in such a Democrat-friendly district in the first place, anyway?  Or is this because of a redistricting case I hadn't heard about?

He's been in the House of Delegates since 1992.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 08:16:34 PM
Tom Perriello:
"Congratulations to @RalphNortham. Let's go win this thing—united. Let's take back the House and ensure VA remains a firewall against hate."
Smart move.

VA isn't the type of state to elect Berniecrats, anyway.  I mean, they elected Senators like Jim Webb and Chuck Robb.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 13, 2017, 08:17:48 PM
Gillespie is pulling away with Fairfax. I think he eeks it out, probably with a recount or two.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 13, 2017, 08:20:16 PM
Since it looks like the Reps may head to a recount - what the rules regarding those in Virgina?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: KingSweden on June 13, 2017, 08:20:47 PM
Quote
Bob Marshall, who tried to pass VA's own bathroom bill, will face transgender Dem in seat Clinton won 55-40
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/874791887185510404

*snort*

How awkward


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2017, 08:21:36 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION: GILLESPIE WINS REP PRIMARY

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
145,965   43.5%

Corey Stewart
143,708   42.8
Frank Wagner
45,829   13.7
92% reporting (2,366 of 2,561 precincts)

Wow. That was uncomfortably close.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 08:22:29 PM
Quote
Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict  2m2 minutes ago

Another new thing people need to get used to: VA is not a swing state.

Quote
Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict  29s30 seconds ago

Also, Loudoun/Prince William/Henrico are no longer "suburban bellwether" counties.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Anna Komnene on June 13, 2017, 08:22:51 PM
Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?

Maybe they're tired of Gillespie but don't have any reason to feel the same way about Vogel.  From what I can tell, Vogel's tried to campaign as some kind of post partisan, inoffensive moderate (though the campaign between her and Reeves has been divisive).  She's also the daughter of a wealthy businessman.  She seems like just the sort of person who the NOVA GOP would like.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 08:24:26 PM
Quote
Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict  2m2 minutes ago

Another new thing people need to get used to: VA is not a swing state.

Quote
Dave Wasserman‏Verified account @Redistrict  29s30 seconds ago

Also, Loudoun/Prince William/Henrico are no longer "suburban bellwether" counties.

What makes him come to that conclusion?  The moderate Dem won, not the Berniecrat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Brittain33 on June 13, 2017, 08:26:55 PM
Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) projecting Gillespie the winner of his primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 08:27:09 PM
Both Democrats were campaigning as progressives. This was not a Bernie vs. Hillary race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 08:31:38 PM
Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?

Maybe they're tired of Gillespie but don't have any reason to feel the same way about Vogel.  From what I can tell, Vogel's tried to campaign as some kind of post partisan, inoffensive moderate (though the campaign between her and Reeves has been divisive).

I received 1 mailer from her. It was about how much we needed bathroom police to protect against the menacing transgender rapists one stall over. I voted for the gun guy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 08:32:19 PM
Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?

Maybe they're tired of Gillespie but don't have any reason to feel the same way about Vogel.  From what I can tell, Vogel's tried to campaign as some kind of post partisan, inoffensive moderate (though the campaign between her and Reeves has been divisive).

I received 1 mailer from her. It was about how much we needed bathroom police to protect against the menacing transgender rapists one stall over. I voted for the gun guy.

You still voting for Northam in the GE or what


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Anna Komnene on June 13, 2017, 08:35:56 PM
Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?

Maybe they're tired of Gillespie but don't have any reason to feel the same way about Vogel.  From what I can tell, Vogel's tried to campaign as some kind of post partisan, inoffensive moderate (though the campaign between her and Reeves has been divisive).

I received 1 mailer from her. It was about how much we needed bathroom police to protect against the menacing transgender rapists one stall over. I voted for the gun guy.

lol.  Well then.  I guess the article I read was full of it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 08:40:44 PM
Vogel also ran an ad saying how she fought against Obama care and expanded health coverage and how pro life Virginia should be or something to that effect.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 13, 2017, 08:42:47 PM
Vogel was someone with a moderate record in the legislature who decided to run as a hardcore tea partier. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 08:44:56 PM
It looks like grassroots Virginia conservatives are still around. The Stewart wing of the GOP is probably the Trump wing!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 13, 2017, 08:46:32 PM
It's over. Everyone is calling it for Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 13, 2017, 08:49:26 PM
It's over. Everyone is calling it for Gillespie.

Yeah it was clear when everything was coming in except Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 13, 2017, 08:51:56 PM
Can't win them all, but I'm happy the Virginia GOP got a wake-up call.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 08:52:13 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 13, 2017, 08:54:02 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 13, 2017, 08:54:49 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 13, 2017, 08:56:17 PM
Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?

Maybe they're tired of Gillespie but don't have any reason to feel the same way about Vogel.  From what I can tell, Vogel's tried to campaign as some kind of post partisan, inoffensive moderate (though the campaign between her and Reeves has been divisive).

I received 1 mailer from her. It was about how much we needed bathroom police to protect against the menacing transgender rapists one stall over. I voted for the gun guy.

You still voting for Northam in the GE or what

Most likely. Sure as hell not voting Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 08:56:58 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.


Much much different circumstances. Massachusetts GOP governors are socially liberal and economically closer to a moderate democrat(Romney supported his state's health reform). Meanwhile Virginia GOP are socially and economically conservative.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 13, 2017, 08:57:02 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

Mass has a liberal Republican. The Va GOP refuses to moderate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 13, 2017, 08:57:38 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

It is definitely not impossible, but for sure unlikely. Governor's race are less partisan, true, but if Gillespie could not win in a less diverse VA 4 years ago, and also in a national Red wave, his chances are slim now, especially with his reputation of being a loser, this pathetic primary showing, and lack of enthusiasm.

Edit 1: sorry meant 3 years ago.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 08:58:11 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

Like I saw some people on Twitter saying, the old moderate Republicans who used to vote in R primaries are now Democrats. This also has the consequence of Trumpists having more power in the nominating process than before.

This result also makes me wonder whether Comstock would even win a Republican Senate primary next year. Good stuff.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 09:02:30 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

You don't understand how hated Trump is here and unfortunately for Ed, he is tied to him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Gass3268 on June 13, 2017, 09:04:53 PM
Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.
MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

You don't understand how hated Trump is here and unfortunately for Ed, he is tied to him.

Ed also had to release this statement recently: https://edforvirginia.com/2017/06/12/no-ed-gillespie-doesnt-support-removing-confederate-monuments/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Matty on June 13, 2017, 09:05:44 PM
Who did blacks support in the dem primary?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: OneJ on June 13, 2017, 09:07:13 PM
Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

Likely Northam. He was shown to have an edge with them among the polls.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Hydera on June 13, 2017, 09:08:26 PM
Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

Black precints and the one majority black city has Northam 60-70% over Perriello.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on June 13, 2017, 09:09:10 PM
Who did blacks support in the dem primary?
According to reports, Northam overwhelmingly.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 09:12:53 PM
Definitely a disappointing showing for Perriello, but Stewart came out of nowhere tonight.  Seeing how close this was, I'm thinking Northam will have more of an Obama 2008 style 6-9% win than the standard VA Dem 1-3% win.  LG could be interesting.  Republicans got their best candidate there and VA has been known to split tickets for Governor and LG in the past.  Either way, Northam has to be smiling and the primary turnout numbers should make all of the statewide Dems initial favorites.
Indeed.  Northam alone has over 300,000 votes.  Gillespie has a mere 160,000 or so.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Matty on June 13, 2017, 09:17:59 PM
I'm not trying to flame, but this is yet another election where black voters are a thorn in the side of the bernie/warren wing of the party.

This is going to be an interesting development to follow in the next few cycles.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 13, 2017, 09:18:55 PM
Who did blacks support in the dem primary?

The vote was correlated much more with regional geography than with race, but the clear majority of blacks are in areas that went for Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 09:21:30 PM
Well, this result surprised me, to say the least. I don't usually Chicken Little about my supported candidates, but I was getting the feeling Perriello's campaign was firing the base up in Fairfax, while Northam's milquetoast nature didn't allow for such a thing. Luckily, my fellow neoliberal establishment moderate centrists showed up big league anyway.

As for Perriello, fair play to him. He ran a clean and constructive campaign and showed how a good Democratic primary should go, by challenging the opponent to be better without tearing them down. It's refreshing to know there are progressives who have long-term visions like him, and I think he'll get another chance at this eventually. Hopefully his supporters follow his lead and show up to throw out HoD Republicans as well this November.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Maxwell on June 13, 2017, 09:31:10 PM
I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on June 13, 2017, 09:39:00 PM
The race is lean D at least Gillespie has a tough path not as bad a Guadagno. Loudoun and Virginia Beach are counties to watch especially for Comstock and Taylor reelection bid.  


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Virginiá on June 13, 2017, 09:43:12 PM
I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.

I tried looking that up too, but evidently in 2013 it was a convention for the GOP. Still, that kind of lopsidedness isn't good, especially since we already know a decent-sized enthusiasm gap has emerged between the two parties nationally, and that Trump is deeply unpopular in Virginia.

I'll wait until this fall to make a prediction but I think this race is very much Northam's to lose. The political environment is simply too ugly for Republicans both nationally and in Virginia, and it only seems to be getting worse.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: BuckeyeNut on June 13, 2017, 09:50:47 PM
Really disappointed in but thoroughly unsurprised by Virginia tonight.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: libertpaulian on June 13, 2017, 09:52:35 PM
I find it hilarious that Gillespie got Gillespie'd!

Not to mention that Democratic Primary turnout was substantially higher than Republican primary turnout - which I'm not sure if that's a normal thing or not.

I tried looking that up too, but evidently in 2013 it was a convention for the GOP. Still, that kind of lopsidedness isn't good, especially since we already know a decent-sized enthusiasm gap has emerged between the two parties nationally, and that Trump is deeply unpopular in Virginia.

I'll wait until this fall to make a prediction but I think this race is very much Northam's to lose. The political environment is simply too ugly for Republicans both nationally and in Virginia, and it only seems to be getting worse.
For sure.  If Northam is smart, he'll do a one-two punch by nationalizing this race and spreading his economic message.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MasterJedi on June 13, 2017, 09:57:31 PM
I'm not trying to flame, but this is yet another election where black voters are a thorn in the side of the bernie/warren wing of the party.

This is going to be an interesting development to follow in the next few cycles.

They've been down the road of being promised miracles before and realize it doesn't happen. They'll vote for the liberal who has a realistic policy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Xing on June 13, 2017, 10:18:17 PM
Well, it's certainly interesting that while Northam/Gillespie was the expected outcome, the expectation of the Democratic side being close while the Republican primary would be a blowout was definitely turned on its head. Gillespie definitely has his work cut out for him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Suburbia on June 13, 2017, 10:18:56 PM
Gillespie wins, not surprising, but a close primary race for Gillespie.

I wonder if the Virginia Republican Party will unite, or will it be another post-Cuccinelli divide.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The Other Castro on June 13, 2017, 10:20:51 PM
GOP race ends just outside the margin needed to avoid a recount challenge from Stewart.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on June 13, 2017, 10:26:25 PM
Wow Stewart, the unabashed defender of the Confederacy almost got the nomination. Interesting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 10:36:42 PM
Stewart's refusing to concede.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on June 13, 2017, 10:36:46 PM
Shame about Perriello, but Virginia Democrats are gonna do what they're gonna do.

Corey Stewart coming that close to winning the primary says a lot about the current state of the GOP.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on June 13, 2017, 10:46:01 PM

That's a shocker smh


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kevin on June 13, 2017, 10:46:19 PM
It was low turnout that appeared to hurt EG.

I wonder what things would have looked like with higher GOP turnout and with Wagner off the ballot?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 13, 2017, 10:48:01 PM
It was heart-wrenching to watch this. The D side wasn't all that surprising; polls had anything from Northam having a wide lead to Periello having a narrow lead. It was the R side that really got me hyperventilating. I wonder if most of the undecideds went to Stewart.

Due to a seemingly divided GOP and the national environment, I'm gonna have to rate it leans D.

What I'm gonna be watching closely is how well Northam does in the tidewater region in November. He did do notably well here for a Democrat in the 2013 LG general. I can see him winning VA-02, as well as at least keeping the margin in VA-01 in mid single-digits.

I'm also keeping an eye on southside and parts of the Shenandoah Valley, namely Alleghany County, which regularly give GOP presidential candidates solid wins, but seems to be competitive in statewide elections.

As for Gillespie, I think this is a chance for Rs to possibly make up lost ground with more moderate suburban voters, but it could also be an opportunity for Democrats to make up lost ground with rural voters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Adam Griffin on June 13, 2017, 10:49:57 PM
60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 13, 2017, 10:56:33 PM
60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

No real comparison to be had since the GOP had a convention in 2013 while McAullife was the only Dem running.

Also, could someone (maybe Adam) make a Sanders-Perriello swing map?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on June 13, 2017, 11:05:59 PM
VA GOP is trash


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Spark on June 13, 2017, 11:29:06 PM
This one should be close.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Yank2133 on June 13, 2017, 11:36:45 PM

No, it won't be close.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on June 13, 2017, 11:37:42 PM


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: krazen1211 on June 14, 2017, 12:01:19 AM
60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Holmes on June 14, 2017, 12:05:29 AM
60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Enough excuses, own this L.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on June 14, 2017, 12:27:04 AM
Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this
. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel


Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.




Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 14, 2017, 12:57:58 AM
Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this
. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel


Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.


and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on June 14, 2017, 01:19:32 AM
Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this
. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel


Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.


and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

Ah, that explains it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Adam Griffin on June 14, 2017, 02:24:08 AM
60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Yes, the Republicans were MISERABLE FAILURES in Virginia in that election as well - thanks for reminding me of the correlation and causation!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 14, 2017, 02:30:40 AM

It could, but should not be. But seriously, I know the VA GOP is getting weaker and weaker, especially statewide, but seriously, Gillespie? Is that sad loser really the best yall could do?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Miles on June 14, 2017, 03:10:08 AM
()
()
()
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Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 14, 2017, 05:53:40 AM
Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 14, 2017, 06:26:41 AM
60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Enough excuses, own this L.

*presents numbers that are supposed to be favorable to Democrats*
*presents counter argument disproving significance of first bit of evidence*
"Ignore the past and accept Gillespie lost the race before it really began


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 14, 2017, 07:07:30 AM
Well in other news the Foy King primary in PW is down to a ten vote separation and probably will be a recount. http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/just-votes-separate-foy-king-in-nd-district/article_5793b914-50b8-11e7-b8d4-9f1e9c2599a9.html


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MasterJedi on June 14, 2017, 07:51:32 AM
The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on June 14, 2017, 08:42:45 AM
Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this
. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel


Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.


and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

Yeah, name recognition had to be a factor. Majority white pittsylvania county and plurality black danville both went for periello above 70% with the common link being he was our old congressman.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 14, 2017, 08:48:59 AM
The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!
Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: MasterJedi on June 14, 2017, 08:58:19 AM
The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!
Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.

You know that, I know that but he wasn't endorsed by Bernie and not labeled as a Progressive so many won't support him. Boggles my mind that people won't vote for someone who won a fair primary who supports most of what they want but isn't as far left and instead won't vote which could make a Republican win so they get nothing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Nyvin on June 14, 2017, 09:07:55 AM
It's crazy how VA-5 is still Perriello's best area by far after all these years.   I didn't think it'd be that prominent especially since he didn't serve very long.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 14, 2017, 10:23:29 AM
Final Results:

Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Ralph Northam
303,537   55.9%
Tom Perriello
239,505   44.1
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Edward Gillespie
160,099   43.7%
Corey Stewart
155,780   42.5
Frank Wagner
50,394   13.8
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

Lieutenant Governor
Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Justin Fairfax
252,400   49.1%
Susan Platt
201,316   39.2
Gene Rossi
60,041   11.7
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jill Vogel
151,996   42.7%
Bryce Reeves
142,218   40.0
Glenn Davis
61,507   17.3
100% reporting (2,561 of 2,561 precincts)



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 14, 2017, 10:32:43 AM
Total D vote vs. Total R vote:

Governor:

D: 543,042 (59.7%)
R: 366,273 (40.3%)

Total Turnout: 909,315

Lt. Governor:

D: 513,757 (59.1%)
R: 355,721 (40.9%)

Total Turnout: 869,478


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on June 14, 2017, 10:58:12 AM
Anybody know why the Dem primary ended up not being very close?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 14, 2017, 11:07:03 AM
Anybody know why the Dem primary ended up not being very close?

Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria fell in love with Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 14, 2017, 11:33:30 AM
For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

()

Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on June 14, 2017, 01:19:01 PM
Rockbridge Co. isn't usually a D heavy county, hasn't been since maybe the '90's. Kinda strange to see this happen.




Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 14, 2017, 01:26:12 PM
For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

()

Thanks. This would be an excellent GE map, especially for Dem HoD candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 14, 2017, 02:28:05 PM
Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 14, 2017, 02:34:39 PM
For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

()

Thanks. This would be an excellent GE map, especially for Dem HoD candidates.
I was thinking that as I made it. Periello really did turn back the clock some to make it look more like the results of an election from the 1990s.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Kingpoleon on June 14, 2017, 02:39:34 PM
For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

()

Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

What's that in popular vote? Looking at similar maps and comparing them, I'd say between 59-60% D and 41-40% R, leaning more towards like 59.75%-40.25%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 14, 2017, 02:45:41 PM
For what it's worth, here's a map of what party got more votes in every county:

()

Higher D turnout obviously tilted the scale in some counties, but Perriello really got a boost in his former district of VA-05. Northam also got a whopping 91.2% in Northampton County (his place of birth) and 89.1 in neighboring Accomack County

Also, one thing I like to check is the precinct at Tangier Island in Accomack County. I won't get into details about what's special about it here, but for anyone familiar with it, Corey Stewart won it with 49 votes.

What's that in popular vote? Looking at similar maps and comparing them, I'd say between 59-60% D and 41-40% R, leaning more towards like 59.75%-40.25%.
Just did the math, and you're right. I got 59.7% - 40.3%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 14, 2017, 03:21:47 PM
Stewart acting like he won lol. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOdRlTLisS8)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Virginiá on June 14, 2017, 03:27:28 PM
Stewart acting like he won lol. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOdRlTLisS8)

Is it just me or is he doing similar hand gestures as Trump too? I don't see the 'o' 👌 shape with his fingers but I do see lots of finger pointing up and other similar movements.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Beet on June 14, 2017, 03:31:27 PM
It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 14, 2017, 03:33:29 PM
It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.
At least Republicans now know to take him seriously. He could throw an election to a Democrat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on June 14, 2017, 03:35:53 PM
It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.
At least Republicans now know to take him seriously. He could throw an election to a Democrat.

Maybe Kaine can McCaskill him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 14, 2017, 03:36:25 PM
Stewart acting like he won lol. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOdRlTLisS8)

Is it just me or is he doing similar hand gestures as Trump too? I don't see the 'o' 👌 shape with his fingers but I do see lots of finger pointing up and other similar movements.

Yeah, he does a lot of ☝️. Trumpists probably find that endearing or something.

It probably means he will run for office in the future and keep being a thorn in the side of Virginia Republicans.

Sounds like it. I can't wait for the GOP clown car next year for the Senate primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skunk on June 14, 2017, 03:44:15 PM

Kaine doesn't even have to do that though, I don't see GOP winning that seat.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 14, 2017, 04:20:17 PM
Rockbridge Co. isn't usually a D heavy county, hasn't been since maybe the '90's. Kinda strange to see this happen.



Democrats got only 39 more votes there than Republicans, so I kinda doubt Northam will win it in November. Northam narrowly won it though in the 2013 Lieutenant Governor election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Miles on June 14, 2017, 05:43:19 PM
Spectacular work as always, Miles!

So the word on Dark Atlas is that Wagner basically ran as a moderate on economic issues.  I wonder how much support that bled from Gillespie.  I didn't follow his campaign at all but I didn't see any signs of his and I don't think he ran a single ad - and this is his home city.

Eyeballing that map, it appears Stewart won my precinct.

Wagner's focus was on investment in economic development rather than Gillespie's very original and thoughtful focus on tax cuts or Stewart's identity politics. Probably "took" net a significant amount from Gillespie, though certainly there were some Trump (primary) /Wagner voters, at least in Hampton Roads. He didn't have the funds for tv ads.  He ran them on talk radio though. 

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

I need to make some slight changes to those, but I'll post them again (with larger versions) when I  do.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Miles on June 14, 2017, 05:48:25 PM
Also, I ran the CD breakdowns:

()
()

()
()

Excuse the conventional colors on this one:

()
()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on June 14, 2017, 05:50:35 PM
This bodes relatively well for the 2018 House elections seeing this high of Dem turnout, especially Comstock and Taylor's seats. I think Comstock's days are numbered, and Taylor could be swept up in a wave or even lose to a good candidate like Lewis in a mild Democratic-favoured year.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Miles on June 14, 2017, 05:51:30 PM
^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Badger on June 14, 2017, 07:25:16 PM
The interwebs Bernie Bros (I bet almost none are in Virginia) are already railing against the Northam win and how they won't support a centrist. Gillespie has to love their support!
Northam is a much better candidate then Clinton was. No baggage, and actually has a clear message.

Just curious, what is it? The message that is. Serious question as I've only followed this race from afar.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 14, 2017, 08:55:36 PM
Here are some comparison maps, which are as interesting for their differences as their similarities:

()

Perriello and Northam each got 91% in their best counties (Nelson and Northampton, respectively)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Spark on June 14, 2017, 10:12:25 PM
This race for Gov in Virginia is going to be shocking. I have no idea who's going to win it will be so competitive.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on June 15, 2017, 12:13:53 AM
This race for Gov in Virginia is going to be shocking. I have no idea who's going to win it will be so competitive.

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 15, 2017, 08:17:43 AM
This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!
He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 15, 2017, 09:40:23 AM
This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!
He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

244 precincts of 244 (100.00%) reporting
Candidate   Votes   Percent
Edward W. "Ed" Gillespie
Republican   18,046   47.87%
Corey A. Stewart
Republican   14,712   39.03%

Frank W. Wagner
Republican   4,940   13.10%

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Index.html

I don't know which Ffx precincts fit into the 10th but here is the link to results by precinct http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Governor.html


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 15, 2017, 09:46:19 AM
This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!
He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

244 precincts of 244 (100.00%) reporting
Candidate   Votes   Percent
Edward W. "Ed" Gillespie
Republican   18,046   47.87%
Corey A. Stewart
Republican   14,712   39.03%

Frank W. Wagner
Republican   4,940   13.10%

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Index.html

I don't know which Ffx precincts fit into the 10th but here is the link to results by precinct http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Governor.html
I mean just the Fairfax portion of VA-10. Not the entire county.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 15, 2017, 09:48:34 AM
Yeah saw that after I posted it. The second link has the Ffx precinct data. I can't find a map of which Ffx precincts are inside the 10th. VPAP used to have that map but it looks like they took it off.

This site has a highlighted map but it doesn't do precincts you would have to do an overlay https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/VA/10


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 15, 2017, 10:19:10 AM
Sabato moves VA-GOV from Tossup to Leans D (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/democrats-start-with-edge-in-virginia-gubernatorial-race/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Nyvin on June 15, 2017, 03:41:33 PM
Northam had the largest percentage of support from urban precincts,  Stewart was largest in rural.

http://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/urban-suburban-rural-divide/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Nyvin on June 15, 2017, 04:01:21 PM
As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Del Tachi on June 15, 2017, 04:41:26 PM
As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

Shhh...don't tell RINO Tom ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 15, 2017, 04:50:46 PM
Don't read too much into these party primary comparison figures. People vote for the race they believe is competitive - which in this case ironically meant they helped the other race be more competitive instead. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 15, 2017, 04:50:54 PM
Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.
If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on June 15, 2017, 10:58:31 PM
Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.
If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

Note that the GOP could treat VA as a safe state because of that. Same thing happened in WA, honestly


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Nyvin on June 16, 2017, 09:38:43 AM
Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.
If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

Note that the GOP could treat VA as a safe state because of that. Same thing happened in WA, honestly

How so?   Just wondering what you mean


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on June 16, 2017, 10:07:27 AM
CS really racked up the rural counties, even Prince William (granted his home county). http://www.vpap.org/visuals/vamaps/number-of-voters/?election=8668 Proves he would lose in a landslide if he was the nom via pop count in rural vs. suburban/urban areas of VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 16, 2017, 04:02:51 PM
CS really racked up the rural counties, even Prince William (granted his home county). http://www.vpap.org/visuals/vamaps/number-of-voters/?election=8668 Proves he would lose in a landslide if he was the nom via pop count in rural vs. suburban/urban areas of VA.

Prince William is not a rural county.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Spark on June 16, 2017, 09:56:44 PM
()

Colors are flipped

My take on this race. Gillespie wins narrowly due to performing well in DC suburbs and Richmond suburbs, while doing exponentially better in Western VA. Thanks for all the love guys.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on June 16, 2017, 11:15:00 PM
[...]

Colors are flipped

My take on this race. Gillespie wins narrowly due to performing well in DC suburbs and Richmond suburbs, while doing exponentially better in Western VA. Thanks for all the love guys.

1. A Republican president that is deeply unpopular in a leans Democratic state (mid-30s approvals in VA)
2. Said president is being investigated for possible obstruction of justice, and ties to Russia in terms of influencing the 2016 election
3. A hugely energized Democratic Party, with what seems to be a substantially unmotivated Republican base. I don't know how meaningful it is, but the GOP's primary vote count this week was horrific compared to Democrats
4. Since the 70s, the party in the White House has tended to lose the VA govs office, up until McAuliffe in 2013, which shouldn't be too surprising - there were unique circumstances, and the state had already begun shifting to Democrats, which gives them something of an edge.
5. An establishment GOP candidate that already lost a statewide race in 2014, and is now running again in what appears to be a very divided Republican electorate, which almost voted for a Confederacy-loving anti-establishment Trumpist. While Virginia as a whole leans towards certain kinds of candidates, it seems the VAGOP may have an additional enthusiasm issue if so many of their voters wanted someone else. Further, Northam seems like a good fit for Democrats, so that compounds the issue here.
6. This is a state where weakness among college graduates and upper-income voters will hurt more. Democrats have continued to make gains among white college graduates and upper-income voters, two groups that tend to have higher turnout during off years.
- When you compare the turnout of Post-grad and college grad voters in 2013 to 2016, you see that in 2013, these groups represented 7% more of VA's electorate. These are also the groups Trump is weighing Republicans down the most with.


... and you think the result will be a slim GOP win, which is about what you'd expect in a more neutral Virginia state election year? I'm just wondering if you've significantly minimized the effect Trump is having on GOP electoral prospects, or if you have some other kind of reasoning.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Perriello to run for Va. governor (primaries: June 13th)
Post by: Miles on June 17, 2017, 01:06:01 AM


Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR (http://i.imgur.com/romjlOO.png)
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR (http://i.imgur.com/Jp0DkZt.png)
DEMOCRATIC LT GOV (http://i.imgur.com/HcPcDiM.png)
REPUBLICAN LT GOV (http://i.imgur.com/5HuRl1o.png)
PARTY CHOICE (http://i.imgur.com/PvrGPwp.png)

Roanoke City did a fair bit of re-precincting, so the precincts there are all colored by the municipal vote.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on June 18, 2017, 09:09:12 AM
Until McAuliffe won, Virginia had a very long run of electing a governor of the opposite party of the president. McAuliffe bucked this trend because of the D trend in the state. Neither augurs well for Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on June 18, 2017, 05:32:43 PM
This is a must win for Dems if they want to capture the House, Sarah Comstock must be defeated along with Gillespsie


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 18, 2017, 08:15:49 PM
This is a must win for Dems if they want to capture the House, Sarah Comstock must be defeated along with Gillespsie

Uh, this election is happening in 2017, Comstock isn't up for election until 2018. Please review an accurate elections calendar before posting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on June 18, 2017, 08:18:59 PM
Okay, both Virginia elections are critical for Dems to win


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on June 18, 2017, 08:39:57 PM
Certainly think Northam has the edge--not Safe Northam, or even Likely, but a very clear advantage for him. Would be very good for the party if we can sweep statewide again.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on June 18, 2017, 08:49:40 PM
How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on June 18, 2017, 09:10:54 PM
Until McAuliffe won, Virginia had a very long run of electing a governor of the opposite party of the president. McAuliffe bucked this trend because of the D trend in the state. Neither augurs well for Gillespie.

No, Cuccinelli was just a really awful candidate for the GOP. Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Also, Gillespie did nearly take out Warner despite no resources AT ALL.


How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

Eh, so goes the top, so goes part II.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 18, 2017, 09:24:28 PM
How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

A bit early to tell, but I think Fairfax is in a slightly weaker position than Northam because while I can't imagine many Gillespie/Fairfax voters, I certainly could see the opposite. That being said, Fairfax is a pretty captivating speaker, and I think his campaign will follow Northam's coattails pretty well.

Also, don't assume Herring is completely safe. His opponent is a former U.S. attorney named John Adams, and I could imagine him winning if Herring takes his seat for granted.


Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Classic.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on June 18, 2017, 09:25:31 PM
How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

A bit early to tell, but I think Fairfax is in a slightly weaker position than Northam because while I can't imagine many Gillespie/Fairfax voters, I certainly could see the opposite. That being said, Fairfax is a pretty captivating speaker, and I think his campaign will follow Northam's coattails pretty well.

Also, don't assume Herring is completely safe. His opponent is a former U.S. attorney named John Adams, and I could imagine him winning if Herring takes his seat for granted.


Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Classic.

Ugh, just another carpetbagging Massachusetts liberal.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 18, 2017, 09:31:57 PM

Also, don't assume Herring is completely safe. His opponent is a former U.S. attorney named John Adams, and I could imagine him winning if Herring takes his seat for granted.

Ugh, just another carpetbagging Massachusetts liberal.

Haha, yeah, that's honestly part of the reason I think he's a formidable candidate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RINO Tom on June 23, 2017, 08:28:04 PM
As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

Shhh...don't tell RINO Tom ;)

LOL, NOVA is a different beast.  There's zero reason to believe the wealthy and affluent suburbs of Indianapolis will shift to the Democratic Party because Atlas gets them the realignment memo.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 23, 2017, 10:59:48 PM
LOL, NOVA is a different beast.  There's zero reason to believe the wealthy and affluent suburbs of Indianapolis will shift to the Democratic Party because Atlas gets them the realignment memo.

()

It just did...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RINO Tom on June 24, 2017, 08:48:17 AM
LOL, NOVA is a different beast.  There's zero reason to believe the wealthy and affluent suburbs of Indianapolis will shift to the Democratic Party because Atlas gets them the realignment memo.

()

It just did...

Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on June 24, 2017, 04:58:02 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/obama-returning-to-campaign-trail-to-stump-for-northam-in-va-governors-race/2017/06/22/7d64456e-5793-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html

Quote
Former president Barack Obama is making his first campaign foray of 2017, agreeing to stump for Democrat Ralph Northam in his bid to be Virginia’s next governor.

David Turner, a spokesman for Northam, said the former president agreed this week to hit the campaign trail for Northam, but would not say when or where.

An aide to Obama confirmed that the former president agreed to campaign for Northam during a congratulatory call, although no events have been planned.

We'll probably see a lot of big names criss-crossing Virginia this fall. It should be pretty easy for Obama too, since he still lives in DC.

Also, I thought this was pretty amusing coming from Gillespie's camp:

Quote
“How many Democratic surrogates is it going to take to try to drag the lieutenant governor across the finish line?” he said. “Virginians deserve to hear from candidates directly, in their own voices, about their own ideas and proposals.”

A bit interesting for the people of a politician who failed to win his only race to be criticizing an actual elected official who has won numerous races, including his current statewide office like this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on June 24, 2017, 05:00:22 PM
Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.

To be fair, it's not that uncommon for presidential level defectors to vote with their old habits downballot, only to abandon those habits once the person they voted against wins the presidency. We saw a lot of that under Obama.

Not saying that will be the case here, but if it was, it wouldn't be uncommon. Long-term defections usually start at the top.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on June 24, 2017, 05:00:52 PM
I am not Northam's spokeman. DavidTurner doesn't exist. :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 24, 2017, 10:27:08 PM
Quote
Former president Barack Obama is making his first campaign foray of 2017, agreeing to stump for Democrat Ralph Northam in his bid to be Virginia’s next governor.

David Turner, a spokesman for Northam, said the former president agreed this week to hit the campaign trail for Northam, but would not say when or where.

An aide to Obama confirmed that the former president agreed to campaign for Northam during a congratulatory call, although no events have been planned.

Great news! I was kinda worried he would only campaign for Perriello, and honestly, I'm not sure how well Obama even knows Northam, but I'm looking forward to this anyway. Hopefully Tommy P gets on the stump as well.


Also, I thought this was pretty amusing coming from Gillespie's camp:

Quote
“How many Democratic surrogates is it going to take to try to drag the lieutenant governor across the finish line?” he said. “Virginians deserve to hear from candidates directly, in their own voices, about their own ideas and proposals.”

Love the line right after that:
Quote
Gillespie recently campaigned with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on June 24, 2017, 10:34:21 PM
Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).

Alright, but Trump will be on the ballot once again in three years, and I don't have much reason to believe someone in a completely different mold will be the Republican nominee in 2024, 2028, and maybe beyond. That's why I, among many, think the trends of the 2016 election will continue even as exceptions to them arise.

Just face it, the Trump brand has encapsulated the GOP in a way that's inescapable -- just look at the ridiculous lengths the party will go to defend him on things they trashed him on as a primary candidate, and they do it because the party wants that:

()

Trump is unquestionably the face of the Republican Party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on June 25, 2017, 12:59:47 PM
Sorry, I meant "shift" as in become reliable areas of support.  Trump was the worst fit imaginable, and he still won with 57% in Hamilton County (and more importantly, beat Hillary by 20 points ... Johnson got almost 6%).  Holcomb got 58% for governor, and Todd Young got 60% in Hamilton for the Senate race.  Susan Brooks got 61% for that House district.  Obviously, Trump provided a shift toward the Democrats, but it was from iron clad support to merely blowout support, and that is not reason to believe these voters are some new base for future Democrats.  And even if these areas DO eventually go Democratic, it will likely be because the areas changed significantly either demographically or culturally (i.e., become older suburbs with a more urban and less traditionally conservative character).

Alright, but Trump will be on the ballot once again in three years, and I don't have much reason to believe someone in a completely different mold will be the Republican nominee in 2024, 2028, and maybe beyond. That's why I, among many, think the trends of the 2016 election will continue even as exceptions to them arise.

Just face it, the Trump brand has encapsulated the GOP in a way that's inescapable -- just look at the ridiculous lengths the party will go to defend him on things they trashed him on as a primary candidate, and they do it because the party wants that:

()

Trump is unquestionably the face of the Republican Party.
You never know. Whenever this kind of topic comes up, I think back to what happened with George H.W. Bush. While it's not a perfect comparison, he did disappoint the GOP base at the time, and went down in flames in 1992, and as a result, the Republicans leadership convinced itself it needed to go back to a more Reaganesque platform. They did do that, but it evolved into a Reagan-on-steroids platform.

Anyway, getting back to the topic, the Indianapolis suburbs could, in the long term, start flipping, just like the once Rock-ribbed Republican Richmond suburbs are becoming swing areas now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 10, 2017, 04:26:17 PM
To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on July 10, 2017, 04:32:17 PM
To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?

Depends how well Northam ties him to Trump.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 10, 2017, 05:05:46 PM
To beat a dead horse here, how well could Gillespie do in Northern Virginia?

He'll do significantly worse than his 2014 run since I don't think Northam comes off as a tax-and-spend liberal the way Perriello would have, and the political climate is much worse for Republicans in the state now than it was then. I'll be surprised if Gillespie breaks 40% in Fairfax and 45% in Loudoun and PW again.

Northam's been kinda dormant since his primary win though. I don't think he can singlehandedly rely on Trump being unpopular to drive turnout.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on July 12, 2017, 05:07:11 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespies-primary-scare-has-white-house-others-urging-trump-world-hires/2017/07/12/c9e4b8ac-5f3f-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html

Quote
Alarmed that Ed Gillespie barely won the Virginia GOP primary for governor in June, top Republicans from the White House on down are pushing him to hire some of the president’s strategists and more aggressively court Trump voters, according to Republicans with direct knowledge of those efforts.

In addition, the Republican National Committee has taken charge of field operations for the Gillespie campaign, according to two Republicans who called it a sign the national party is worried about Gillespie’s team..

Quote
Wendell Walker, the party’s vice chairman for the western half of the state, left convinced that the campaign was listening. But others fear the campaign remains overconfident.

“I feel like I’m on the Titanic right now,” one Republican insider said. “We’re about to hit an iceberg. ‘Hey, we need to turn!’ You got the current Ed Gillespie team saying, ‘Nah, hold my beer, we got this.’ ”

The RNC has long played a part in field operations for various campaigns but is taking a more forceful role than usual in Virginia, calling shots more than collaborating, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.

Shameless politics 101:

Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 12, 2017, 05:14:53 PM
Shameless politics 101:

Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”

Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 13, 2017, 08:45:07 AM
While the trend of the opposite party winning the governorship of who won the presidency the year prior was broken in 2013, I think it's returning. Trump is just way too toxic in the state.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on July 13, 2017, 09:49:00 AM
Shameless politics 101:

Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”

Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.
I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 13, 2017, 07:38:09 PM
Shameless politics 101:

Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”

Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.
I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on July 13, 2017, 09:12:53 PM
Shameless politics 101:

Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”

Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.
I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.

There is no way that he'll be able to match his 2014 results. McAuliffe is too popular and Trump will be too much of a drag on him there. The race might end up looking close, but structurally it is almost impossible for a Democrat to lose now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on July 15, 2017, 02:27:17 PM
Shameless politics 101:

Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”

Virginia Republicans are so cute. That's actually a step down from the 15 debates Cooch proposed in 2013.
I remember reading somewhere that Gillespie mainly wanted to debate Northam in SW VA coal country so he could hit him over the "war on coal". When will the VA GOP learn that that's not how you win statewide in VA these days. Trump probably maxed out the GOP vote share in SW VA already, and still lost statewide by 5% because of his toxicity in NOVA.

Trump did comically worse in NOVA even for a republican. Gillespie will do far better there. Question is if he can match what he did there in 2014, which would be enough to win if he matches Trump in SW VA and matches Romney elsewhere.
Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Suburbia on July 15, 2017, 02:28:09 PM
Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 15, 2017, 02:57:39 PM
Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?

Northam. Any more questions about random demographics?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on July 15, 2017, 03:41:09 PM
Will suburban white Virginia women vote for Gillespie or Northam?

Yes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Miles on July 15, 2017, 03:47:57 PM
Thing is, I doubt Gillespie will match Trump' showing in SW VA. Gillespie seems like a poor cultural fit for the area. I'm actually expecting Northam to overperform a bit in SW VA because of his rural background.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

*Bill Bolling ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SATW on July 15, 2017, 05:05:17 PM
I think Northam is clearly favored, but the zeal in which some of my fellow Virginians are commenting here with is a bit much.

It is silly to say that it is "structurally impossible" for Gillespie to win. Was the same not said about Trump? It's better to be cautious during the campaign and happy on election night than to be cocky during the campaign and heartbroken on election night. Just saying.

 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 15, 2017, 08:56:15 PM
It is silly to say that it is "structurally impossible" for Gillespie to win. Was the same not said about Trump? It's better to be cautious during the campaign and happy on election night than to be cocky during the campaign and heartbroken on election night. Just saying.

But Virginia is not Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, and Gillespie is definitely not Trump. There is no obvious demographic group here that's set to shift away from Democrats to Republicans more than they already have. As you know the state is largely inelastic as a whole, and the region that continues to grow in terms of % of the state population is still trending Democratic.

I do partially agree that it's not 'structurally impossible' for a Republican to win statewide considering how close Gillespie was in 2014, and people really should be tempering their expectations on how strong NOVA will be for Northam (he will not get near matching Clinton's margins), but Gillespie isn't running in the same political climate as he was last time. Turnout will also be much better this time around.

Northam is much more likely to overperform relative to the average Democrat in the rural Chesapeake Bay area rather than SW VA. There were some parts in the Southwest where E.W. Jackson actually did better than Eric Bolling, so it's safe to say that region is completely gone.

*Bill Bolling ;)

Sad to say that isn't the first time I've made that mistake.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on July 16, 2017, 01:21:21 AM
Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on July 16, 2017, 02:55:24 AM
Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI
I think this is the right message that Northam needs to be going for. He should definitely keep portraying himself as an outside and really hammer Ed's career in D.C.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on July 16, 2017, 11:33:21 AM
Great GE ad from Northam really shows the contrast between the candidates Army vet/Doctor vs. career lobbyist/party insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq8guaC8dcI
I think this is the right message that Northam needs to be going for. He should definitely keep portraying himself as an outside and really hammer Ed's career in D.C.
Which is why I think Gillespie will under perform in SW VA and the Shenandoah Valley. Gillespie immediately comes off as a DC insider.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2017, 11:31:54 AM
Northam raises $2M, has almost as much on hand. (http://bluevirginia.us/2017/07/northam-governor-raises-nearly-2-million-3337-contributions-1-75-million-hand)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on July 19, 2017, 10:41:16 AM
These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: OneJ on July 19, 2017, 11:08:56 AM
These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 19, 2017, 11:21:41 AM
These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?


Are you talking about Republicans? Because it's the VA Democrats who made a few of these signs.

I'm not a fan of this really. Trump is unpopular in Virginia, but Gillespie is bad in his own right. I'd prefer Northam not engage in this rather lazy form of campaigning.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: OneJ on July 19, 2017, 11:31:32 AM
These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?


Are you talking about Republicans? Because it's the VA Democrats who made a few of these signs.

I'm not a fan of this really. Trump is unpopular in Virginia, but Gillespie is bad in his own right. I'd prefer Northam not engage in this rather lazy form of campaigning.
Ah, my bad. That makes a whole lot more sense now.

I agree with you though that Northam should focus on what makes Gillespie bad instead of the other way of campaigning though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong on July 19, 2017, 11:50:14 AM
The signs say its the Va. Democrats' signage, and I agree that they should stick to talking about Gillespie directly, but something like these signs can't hurt, especially when an undecided voter who only knows about national politics needs to be swayed


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on July 19, 2017, 12:13:29 PM
Shameless politics 101:
Quote
During the primary, Gillespie declined so many debates, Stewart branded him “No-Show Ed.” But after he won the primary, Gillespie challenged Northam to 10. When Northam agreed to just three, Gillespie was ready with a warmed-over insult: “No-Show Northam.”

Enron Ed is such a loser.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 19, 2017, 01:04:15 PM
These are starting to pop up around Virginia:

~snip~
Don't they realize that tying Gillespie with Trump won't necessarily help him in a state like this?



This would only make sense if Stewart was the nominee.

Gillespie has at least been somewhat of a "NeverTrumper"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on July 20, 2017, 09:42:48 AM
Quote
Jonathan Martin‏
Verified account
@jmartNYT  19h

Wow, @EdWGillespie camp stops playing coy:

"Virginia needs a governor who is eager to work with President Trump, not be at odds with him"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on July 20, 2017, 04:16:54 PM
Quote
Jonathan Martin‏
Verified account
@jmartNYT  19h

Wow, @EdWGillespie camp stops playing coy:

"Virginia needs a governor who is eager to work with President Trump, not be at odds with him"

*facepalm*


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on July 20, 2017, 04:23:40 PM

Looks like Stewart didn't need to win after all in order to help derail Republican prospects in this race. I get Gillespie probably felt like he was in a bind, but this was a bad decision. I'd also venture a guess that in the end, even if Gillespie did manage to pull out a win, it will be in spite of, not because of it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 20, 2017, 04:31:48 PM

Looks like Stewart didn't need to win after all in order to help derail Republican prospects in this race. I get Gillespie probably felt like he was in a bind, but this was a bad decision. I'd also venture a guess that in the end, even if Gillespie did manage to pull out a win, it will be in spite of, not because of it.

Well, since Stewart is such a sore loser that he still hasn't conceded, Gillespie probably thinks he has to make overtures to the far right to get Stewart's supporters back on board. I also saw this article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespies-primary-scare-has-white-house-others-urging-trump-world-hires/2017/07/12/c9e4b8ac-5f3f-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html) last week, which included this tidbit about Gillespie's staff:

Quote
“He’s surrounded himself with ‘Never Trumpers,’ and they don’t know how to navigate this new dynamic in the party,” said a Republican familiar with the outreach. White House officials “want to help and they want to embrace, but you’ve got to want to be hugged. You can’t blanch.”

Considering the way they're treating Guadagno, I guess the Romney McDaniel-led RNC would rather cut off their arm than extend it to people who were mean to Trump in last year's presidential primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on July 20, 2017, 04:56:38 PM
Considering the way they're treating Guadagno, I guess the Romney McDaniel-led RNC would rather cut off their arm than extend it to people who were mean to Trump in last year's presidential primary.

Oh that's a good point. I know the RGA earmarked 5 million dollars to support, what they said at the time, "whoever" wins the nomination, so I imagine Gillespie wants to make sure he gets that. I'm not sure if Trump could yank that away out of spite, but he could have certainly tried.

It's funny, because for a lot of the later Obama years, I became embittered with a president I believed didn't care as much as he should have about the party, but now Republicans have a president who probably couldn't care less, even to the point of trashing their prospects in certain races just because he feels slighted. I don't know if we'll ever have a president that has put themselves above country and party as much as Trump.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on July 21, 2017, 12:44:56 PM
Who is voting on pipelines? This is a ridiculous wedge issue..


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 21, 2017, 07:45:49 PM
Who is voting on pipelines? This is a ridiculous wedge issue..


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on July 22, 2017, 04:55:01 PM

Yeah those stupid people voting on an issue related to energy, jobs, tourism, the environment, and property rights lol


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: windjammer on July 23, 2017, 06:35:13 AM
Who won the debate?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 24, 2017, 11:57:15 AM
I have absolutely no idea who I'm gonna vote for at this rate.

I like both candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: windjammer on July 24, 2017, 12:01:45 PM
I have absolutely no idea who I'm gonna vote for at this rate.

I like both candidates.
You didn't have a Ed Gillespie signature recently? Why did you change your mind ?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 24, 2017, 12:08:22 PM
I have absolutely no idea who I'm gonna vote for at this rate.

I like both candidates.
You didn't have a Ed Gillespie signature recently? Why did you change your mind ?

I've been going on and off of being an undecided voter, so I'm gonna refrain from endorsing a candidate until later on the election.

I'm gonna assume that I'll end up voting for Gillespie (I do like his tax plan), but I have no deep stances as of yet.

I am satisfied with both candidates and I think they will both make decent governors.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on July 24, 2017, 01:11:38 PM
First debate video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM6gb1h2_Bo


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 24, 2017, 02:26:18 PM
Gillespie definitely won.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 24, 2017, 08:40:43 PM
I totally believe they're tied, as the new Monmouth poll showed. Like Sanders, Perriello was shown to beat the GE opponent at a healthier margin, and Northam could well botch it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on July 24, 2017, 11:40:24 PM
I hate to say it but I think your right.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 24, 2017, 11:50:35 PM

Northam went on a few cringe worthy tangents, such as flipping subjects and criticizing the moderator, and also spoke in vague and hollow terms, in both summaries and rebuttals, while Gillespie utilized statistics very effectively. However, if I was a resident of Virginia, this debate would not impact my vote very much. But, I used to hate Gillespie, but after I watched the debate, I only dislike him now instead, something about the guy, I don't know... still definitely rooting for Northam though, just less excitedly than before.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 25, 2017, 01:05:34 PM

Northam went on a few cringe worthy tangents, such as flipping subjects and criticizing the moderator, and also spoke in vague and hollow terms, in both summaries and rebuttals, while Gillespie utilized statistics very effectively. However, if I was a resident of Virginia, this debate would not impact my vote very much. But, I used to hate Gillespie, but after I watched the debate, I only dislike him now instead, something about the guy, I don't know... still definitely rooting for Northam though, just less excitedly than before.

I also thought Gillespie sounded better than Northam.

The worst part for Northam was where after Gillespie talked about his tax plan, Northam talked some generic platitudes about "coming together with both sides to construct a tax plan" and Gillespie responded by saying that Northam's tax plan was "to have a tax plan" and then went back to touting his own tax plan to cut income taxes gradually by 10 percent as long as there is enough revenue in the budget to do so (to prevent a situation like we saw in Kansas).

I'd say Gillespie won that debate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 25, 2017, 01:07:27 PM
Also, I had an issue with the moderator as I felt she cut off time to short, which ended up forcing Gillespie and Northam to eat their words as they finish up their sentence. I feel like she should have given them a bit more time each to speak. I was not very impressed with the moderator due to that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on July 25, 2017, 05:49:17 PM

Northam went on a few cringe worthy tangents, such as flipping subjects and criticizing the moderator, and also spoke in vague and hollow terms, in both summaries and rebuttals, while Gillespie utilized statistics very effectively. However, if I was a resident of Virginia, this debate would not impact my vote very much. But, I used to hate Gillespie, but after I watched the debate, I only dislike him now instead, something about the guy, I don't know... still definitely rooting for Northam though, just less excitedly than before.

I also thought Gillespie sounded better than Northam.

The worst part for Northam was where after Gillespie talked about his tax plan, Northam talked some generic platitudes about "coming together with both sides to construct a tax plan" and Gillespie responded by saying that Northam's tax plan was "to have a tax plan" and then went back to touting his own tax plan to cut income taxes gradually by 10 percent as long as there is enough revenue in the budget to do so (to prevent a situation like we saw in Kansas).

I'd say Gillespie won that debate.

Gillespie just did a good job of articulating himself and being able to give numbers and information for his plans. Northam just kinda rambled on about things with no clear message and just wasn't able to defend himself as well. I really hope Northam dose better the next debate and either gets more practice in or gets a new debate coach.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 25, 2017, 08:18:26 PM
Yeah, I watched the first 45 minutes of this thing and Gillespie did really well. He's a fairly strong candidate and a decent fit for a state like VA, which also explains why he came pretty close to winning in 2014.

Yeah, if Dems sleep through this under some 'blue wall' mentality, they will lose. Only reason Warner held on was incumbency.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on July 25, 2017, 08:27:23 PM
Yeah, I watched the first 45 minutes of this thing and Gillespie did really well. He's a fairly strong candidate and a decent fit for a state like VA, which also explains why he came pretty close to winning in 2014.

Are you joking??  You were saying in the monmouth poll thread he's still gonna lose kek.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 25, 2017, 08:38:35 PM
Okay I just watched the debate and I'll definitely say Gillespie did a good job. Let's not blow the importance of this out of proportion though; only 3% in that Monmouth poll said they watched it, which is not surprising considering it's July.

Northam is letting Gillespie outflank him on economics, which is very disappointing considering how well McAuliffe has done bringing jobs through trade missions and such. Northam needs to run on being a second-term of McAuliffe IMO.

I also laughed when Gillespie suggested a transportation lockbox, which is not necessarily a bad idea and I want to hear more about it. Northam needs to actually start putting up more concrete plans as well.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 25, 2017, 09:13:33 PM
Okay I just watched the debate and I'll definitely say Gillespie did a good job. Let's not blow the importance of this out of proportion though; only 3% in that Monmouth poll said they watched it, which is not surprising considering it's July.

Northam is letting Gillespie outflank him on economics, which is very disappointing considering how well McAuliffe has done bringing jobs through trade missions and such. Northam needs to run on being a second-term of McAuliffe IMO.

I also laughed when Gillespie suggested a transportation lockbox, which is not necessarily a bad idea and I want to hear more about it. Northam needs to actually start putting up more concrete plans as well.

Agreed, he needs to stop throwing around annoying narratives and get on track with stats!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on July 25, 2017, 09:22:20 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/national-money-pours-into-virginia-governors-race/2017/07/25/7e6df1a0-7154-11e7-8839-ec48ec4cae25_story.html

Quote
Not 30 minutes after Ed Gillespie and Ralph Northam stepped off the debate stage Saturday, the Republican Governors Association announced it would plow $2 million into Gillespie’s campaign — on top of a previous $1 million donation.

And on Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee said it would give $1.5 million to Northam, the state’s lieutenant governor. The DNC also dispatched three top staffers to Virginia to work with his campaign. That help is on top of the $1 million the Democratic Governors Association gave the day after the primary.

Also Tuesday, Gillespie announced that he will launch statewide TV ads — the first of the general election.

Quote
Perez dispatched his chief of staff, Sam Cornale, to work with Northam’s campaign, along with the DNC’s political and organizing director, Amanda Brown ­Lierman, and political adviser Ramsey Reid. Some Republicans suggested the DNC was sending staff because of perceived weakness in Northam’s organization. Northam spokeswoman Ofirah Yheskel pushed back against that notion.

Quote
Northam raised $9.4 million for the governor’s race by June 30 compared with $6.7 million for Gillespie. Northam spent all but $1.75 million fighting off former congressman Tom Perriello in the Democratic primary, which Northam won by 12 points.

Gillespie, widely expected to coast to victory in his three-way primary, spent relatively little but barely eked out a victory over Trump acolyte Corey Stewart, who focused his campaign on the preservation of Confederate monuments.

I have to admit I am disappointed this cycle had to turn into an expensive primary fight that resulted in the nominee being bled out funds-wise. I wish there could be some sort of agreement to limit expenditures and let the chips fall where they may. The next round of redistricting is too important to have the Democratic candidates dumping everything they have before the primary is even over.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on July 26, 2017, 02:23:26 PM
Okay I just watched the debate and I'll definitely say Gillespie did a good job. Let's not blow the importance of this out of proportion though; only 3% in that Monmouth poll said they watched it, which is not surprising considering it's July.

I don't even know if it was on tv here.  If it was on the pbs station in primetime I would have noticed it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on July 26, 2017, 10:21:32 PM
Okay I just watched the debate and I'll definitely say Gillespie did a good job. Let's not blow the importance of this out of proportion though; only 3% in that Monmouth poll said they watched it, which is not surprising considering it's July.

Northam is letting Gillespie outflank him on economics, which is very disappointing considering how well McAuliffe has done bringing jobs through trade missions and such. Northam needs to run on being a second-term of McAuliffe IMO.

I also laughed when Gillespie suggested a transportation lockbox, which is not necessarily a bad idea and I want to hear more about it. Northam needs to actually start putting up more concrete plans as well.

Gillespie really impressed me in that debate and I'm pretty certain that I'll end up voting for him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on July 27, 2017, 08:54:18 AM

I don't even know if it was on tv here.  If it was on the pbs station in primetime I would have noticed it.

It was on a Saturday morning on PBS. I don't know whose decision that was, but in the middle of July, it wasn't gonna get that many viewers.


Gillespie really impressed me in that debate and I'm pretty certain that I'll end up voting for him.

I guess Gillespie is on the mediocre-end of the GOP spectrum, but his tax plan is too regressive to swallow. The idea of financing his across the board tax reductions by leaving over 1,000 state jobs unfilled doesn't sound good to me either.

He's also untenable on most social issues as well, and if given a Republican controlled State Senate and HoD, I fear the bullsh**t they'll try to ram down our throats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on August 01, 2017, 12:10:56 PM
Thank God Corey Stewart never became the GOP nominee.

I would have honestly voted for Periello/Northam in a heartbeat if Stewart was the nominee


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on August 01, 2017, 12:29:32 PM
Thank God Corey Stewart never became the GOP nominee.

I would have honestly voted for Periello/Northam in a heartbeat if Stewart was the nominee

I must be the opposite of you,  because I am going to vote Dem this time since Corey did not get the nominee. :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on August 01, 2017, 01:04:05 PM
Thank God Corey Stewart never became the GOP nominee.

I would have honestly voted for Periello/Northam in a heartbeat if Stewart was the nominee

I must be the opposite of you,  because I am going to vote Dem this time since Corey did not get the nominee. :P

Though I am a former Republican, we seem to be on the opposite ends of the political spectrum of that party. :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on August 01, 2017, 01:06:23 PM
And here we see the tradeoffs of Gillespie, we can get more centrist independents like Deblano here, but we lose people further to the right like Mr. Reactionary, question is how many of each group are there.  I tend to think there are more of the former, but i'm not a Virginian so i'd defer to the natives on this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on August 01, 2017, 01:28:41 PM
And here we see the tradeoffs of Gillespie, we can get more centrist independents like Deblano here, but we lose people further to the right like Mr. Reactionary, question is how many of each group are there.  I tend to think there are more of the former, but i'm not a Virginian so i'd defer to the natives on this.

Mr. Reactionary-types are unlikely to actually vote for Northam. Most right-wing edgelords like him will vote Gillespie anyway or just stay home.

People with ideologies similar to Deblano exist in relatively large numbers but it remains to be seen whether they support him as strongly as they did in 2014.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on August 03, 2017, 12:21:13 PM
And here we see the tradeoffs of Gillespie, we can get more centrist independents like Deblano here, but we lose people further to the right like Mr. Reactionary, question is how many of each group are there.  I tend to think there are more of the former, but i'm not a Virginian so i'd defer to the natives on this.

Mr. Reactionary-types are unlikely to actually vote for Northam. Most right-wing edgelords like him will vote Gillespie anyway or just stay home.

People with ideologies similar to Deblano exist in relatively large numbers but it remains to be seen whether they support him as strongly as they did in 2014.

I'd say more "centrist independents" voted for Warner in 2014 instead of Gillespie, based on my hunch. However, this election may be more evenly divided among centrists.  

EDIT: I would also add that there may be a percentage of people with ideologies similar to mine (centrist, somewhat libertarian) who are relatively apolitical and are less like to engage politically or even vote.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on August 04, 2017, 01:45:00 PM
And here we see the tradeoffs of Gillespie, we can get more centrist independents like Deblano here, but we lose people further to the right like Mr. Reactionary, question is how many of each group are there.  I tend to think there are more of the former, but i'm not a Virginian so i'd defer to the natives on this.

Mr. Reactionary-types are unlikely to actually vote for Northam. Most right-wing edgelords like him will vote Gillespie anyway or just stay home.

People with ideologies similar to Deblano exist in relatively large numbers but it remains to be seen whether they support him as strongly as they did in 2014.

I'd say more "centrist independents" voted for Warner in 2014 instead of Gillespie, based on my hunch. However, this election may be more evenly divided among centrists.  

EDIT: I would also add that there may be a percentage of people with ideologies similar to mine (centrist, somewhat libertarian) who are relatively apolitical and are less like to engage politically or even vote.

Part of 2014 was due to the presence of notable spoiler Bob Sarvis, the odds of someone of that caliber is unlikely again.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on August 13, 2017, 09:36:24 AM
Corey Stewart (who narrowly lost the Republican primary to Gillespie) who is currently running for the U.S. Senate next year, responded far worse than Donald Trump himself.

https://www.facebook.com/CoreyStewartVA/videos/1893024764047688/

WTF Republicans. YOU.FRAKING.SUCK.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 13, 2017, 11:32:37 AM
Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on August 13, 2017, 01:54:43 PM
Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

Seriously?  People died and you hope that their deaths boost someone's polling numbers?!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 13, 2017, 02:14:22 PM
Hopefully these people who were killed and injured in the tragic events in Charlottesville Virginia did not die and get hurt in vain. Hopefully their legacy will be boosting Northam in the polls, while bringing down Gillespie.

Seriously?  People died and you hope that their deaths boost someone's polling numbers?!

Sometimes good things come from tragic events.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Lord Admirale on August 13, 2017, 03:56:26 PM
I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on August 13, 2017, 04:13:37 PM
I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

Not really the same type of situation. This was a clear attack by a white supremacist. Ferguson was a whole different ball game, not only in what people were protesting about but the effects of the protest itself. The narrative here definitely is not on the side of the white supremacists nor even Trump, insofar as he is relevant here.

Plus, I think it goes without saying, but Virginia is much different than Missouri. Namely, much more Democratic and thus likely to respond in different ways.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on August 13, 2017, 05:30:47 PM
I'm not sure if this will help Northam, Jay Nixon didn't fair too well following Ferguson. 

Not really the same type of situation. This was a clear attack by a white supremacist. Ferguson was a whole different ball game, not only in what people were protesting about but the effects of the protest itself. The narrative here definitely is not on the side of the white supremacists nor even Trump, insofar as he is relevant here.

Plus, I think it goes without saying, but Virginia is much different than Missouri. Namely, much more Democratic and thus likely to respond in different ways.
Yeah. I don't think this will have much of an effect on the race. If it somehow hurts McCauliffe's approval ratings, it could hurt Northam, but I don't see what McCauliffe did that would've caused his approval ratings to drop, except railing against Neo-Nazis.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Tekken_Guy on August 14, 2017, 09:17:01 PM
Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 15, 2017, 12:23:53 AM
Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

Woot woot!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Don Vito Corleone on August 15, 2017, 07:33:37 AM
Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

Why?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on August 17, 2017, 07:00:25 PM
Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

I wouldn't go that far, but it certainly doesn't help him


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: fluffypanther19 on August 17, 2017, 07:29:11 PM
Yeah, after Charlottesville, Gillespie is toast.

I wouldn't go that far, but it certainly doesn't help him
Yeah, but this race was always going to be a huge lift for him anyway.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Suburbia on August 17, 2017, 07:32:30 PM
If Corey Stewart was the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee, I wonder if the VA GOP would have forced him to drop out of the race?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on August 18, 2017, 01:26:25 PM
If Corey Stewart was the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee, I wonder if the VA GOP would have forced him to drop out of the race?

I've been thinking about this one ever since Charlottesville march/attack. But Stewart is now running for the U.S. Senate against Kaine. I kinda hope he is the nominee against Kaine. Stewart would be even more doomed than E.W. Jackson was for Lt. Governor four years ago.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on August 18, 2017, 11:28:34 PM
With the polling we've seen regarding public opinion on both Trump's response to the events in Charlottesville and the debate regarding the removal of Confederate statues, I'm not sure that Gillespie is harmed by this.

A plurality (49%) of Americans either agree with Trump's assessment of the violence in Charlottesville or are to his right.  (https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/898571870177562624)

Trump's approval rating has increased since the events in Charlottesville. (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/656915?unlock=GZTW3EZ94OLSYW8J)

Anywhere from a plurality-near-majority to three-fifths of Americans disapprove of removing Confederate statues, while Americans are almost united in their disdain for white nationalism and the KKK. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lots-of-americans-arent-sure-if-we-should-take-down-confederate-statues/)

Regarding the first poll, 40% of Americans agreed with Trump's assertion that "many sides" were responsible for the violence in Charlottesville, while 9% believed that ANTIFA et. al. were primarily responsible for the violence.

Now, look at what Gillespie has done in the aftermath of the violence in Charlottesville.

- He has condemned white nationalism, neo-Nazi ideology, and the KKK by name
- He has not directly attacked the President
- He has adopted a position supporting the rights of the localities involved to make their own decisions about the statues, while generally opposing the removal of the statues himself.

AFAICT, Gillespie has checked all the boxes. Meanwhile, Northam has taken a trendy (among liberal/media elites) but hardline stance in choosing to wholeheartedly support historical revisionism and iconoclasm. Nate Silver tells us that kind of stance won't be taken well by independents and only tepidly accepted by many Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on August 18, 2017, 11:37:41 PM
I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on August 18, 2017, 11:40:40 PM
I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on August 18, 2017, 11:46:34 PM
not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 19, 2017, 02:07:46 PM
I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 19, 2017, 02:45:51 PM
I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.

It didn't, really. But, regardless, no one cares about gubernatorial debates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on August 19, 2017, 04:35:40 PM
I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.

That was because both candidates had been in the public eye for decades.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 19, 2017, 07:59:53 PM
not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?

Yeah, Bannon was right on that one.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on August 19, 2017, 09:12:20 PM
Yeah, Bannon was right on that one.

It's pretty interesting how basically the only people not seriously affected by this are the actual voters. I'm inclined to think that they believe it is not good, but not such a big deal, or that a lot of people do think it is a big deal, but almost all those people already disapprove of Trump. Currently leaning towards the latter.

I think what's left of Trump's base right now are those who will only turn on him if there is a recession, or some seriously bungled disaster, or something like that. Either that or attrition due to years of Trump's incompetence and failure to make good on his promises.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on August 19, 2017, 09:19:53 PM
not even a majority of black voters support getting rid of Confederate monuments.
Tell me again why Democrats see pushing this as a political winner?

While it is a noble cause, I do agree that this is turning into a petty wedge issue.

Our roads are crumbling, our civil liberties are weakening, and the executive branch continues to get more powerful. I could give a rats ass about statues.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roblox on August 23, 2017, 06:47:56 PM
official VA GOP twitter basically calling Ralph Northam a race traitor  loool

Quote
Virginia GOP (RPV)‏Verified account
@VA_GOP

.@RalphNortham has turned his back on his own family's heritage in demanding monument removal (1/2)

A month or two ago, for reasons, I was reading a post Larry Sabato wrote in late October of 2008, when he moved Virginia from "toss-up" to "Lean democratic" in the presidential race. He said that the Virginia GOP was failing to adapt to the way the state was changing, choosing instead to stick to their extremist ways, and that could cost the GOP there. Almost 9 years later, those words are prescient.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frodo on August 23, 2017, 07:45:34 PM
official VA GOP twitter basically calling Ralph Northam a race traitor  loool

Quote
Virginia GOP (RPV)‏Verified account
@VA_GOP

.@RalphNortham has turned his back on his own family's heritage in demanding monument removal (1/2)

So the Virginia GOP has moved beyond barely subtle racial dog whistle politics, and now openly aligned itself with neo-Confederates and white supremacists, shedding any pretense of being a responsible governing party.

That's good to know.    


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on August 23, 2017, 08:05:29 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democratic-megadonor-tom-steyer-to-spend-2-million-in-virginia-governors-race/2017/08/21/0f2486a2-81fc-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html

Quote
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer’s organization plans to spend at least $2 million to elect Democrat Ralph Northam as Virginia’s next governor, with a focus on turning out millenial voters.

Quote
Steyer’s organization spent the second largest amount in Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial contest, giving $8 million on advertising, field operations and other efforts to help elect Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and other Democrats. Steyer hasn’t ruled out funding television commercials independent from the candidate this year, as he did last time.

But his current focus is mobilizing young voters who typically stay home for non-presidential elections, he said.

NextGen America’s $2 million commitment is expected to cover 70 paid staffers on 25 Virginia college campuses, who will register and try to turn out millenial voters in November. It will also pay for a digital campaign to reach millenials who aren’t in college.

A spokeswoman for NextGen said its organizers registered more than 1,000 voters at the University of Virginia campus in Charlottesville as students moved onto campus over the past weekend.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on August 23, 2017, 08:20:56 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democratic-megadonor-tom-steyer-to-spend-2-million-in-virginia-governors-race/2017/08/21/0f2486a2-81fc-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html

Quote
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer’s organization plans to spend at least $2 million to elect Democrat Ralph Northam as Virginia’s next governor, with a focus on turning out millenial voters.

Quote
Steyer’s organization spent the second largest amount in Virginia’s 2013 gubernatorial contest, giving $8 million on advertising, field operations and other efforts to help elect Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and other Democrats. Steyer hasn’t ruled out funding television commercials independent from the candidate this year, as he did last time.

But his current focus is mobilizing young voters who typically stay home for non-presidential elections, he said.

NextGen America’s $2 million commitment is expected to cover 70 paid staffers on 25 Virginia college campuses, who will register and try to turn out millenial voters in November. It will also pay for a digital campaign to reach millenials who aren’t in college.

A spokeswoman for NextGen said its organizers registered more than 1,000 voters at the University of Virginia campus in Charlottesville as students moved onto campus over the past weekend.

I remember NextGen spending tens of million on some GOTV operation in 2016/2014... I wish Steyer would just give directly to the DGA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 24, 2017, 02:05:25 PM
official VA GOP twitter basically calling Ralph Northam a race traitor  loool

Quote
Virginia GOP (RPV)‏Verified account
@VA_GOP

.@RalphNortham has turned his back on his own family's heritage in demanding monument removal (1/2)

So the Virginia GOP has moved beyond barely subtle racial dog whistle politics, and now openly aligned itself with neo-Confederates and white supremacists, shedding any pretense of being a responsible governing party.

That's good to know.    

GL with that. The VA GOP is a lock for a steamroll out of relevance, it seems.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on August 31, 2017, 12:48:54 PM
Gillespie decided to attack the Washington Post in an official statement for some reason today:

()

I don't know if attacking the newspaper with the largest circulation in Virginia, with big influence in NOVA is the best way to go.

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on August 31, 2017, 12:53:08 PM
Oof, sweating like a dog that one.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on August 31, 2017, 07:48:18 PM
Gillespie and the VA GOP seem to be trying their hardest to piss away a pretty winnable race


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on September 01, 2017, 02:26:46 PM
I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 02, 2017, 10:46:37 AM
I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...

I think it will be fairly close with Northam winning later into the night.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on September 02, 2017, 10:59:00 PM
I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...

I think it will be fairly close with Northam winning later into the night.

I think it will be around Hillary's margin in 2016 give or take 1% or 2% on election night.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on September 04, 2017, 10:41:47 AM
I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...

I think it will be fairly close with Northam winning later into the night.

I think it will be around Hillary's margin in 2016 give or take 1% or 2% on election night.

Sounds about right, probably flips over to D at 86 or 88% [which is also where it flipped for Obama] instead of 92%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 05, 2017, 12:33:44 PM
Gillespie came out in favor of Tom Cotton's plan to restrict LEGAL immigration as part of a DACA solution.

()

Does he realize Virginia isn't Arkansas?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on September 05, 2017, 12:42:32 PM
I mean the Post is left-leaning, but this shows how strong Northam is honestly. Gillespie clearly has seen internal polling suggesting he is facing enthusiasm / approval / support gaps and has to make a move somewhere, so he is throwing out red meat for the base and hoping that left-leavers in NOVA don't notice / care.

Smart money says they will though and he loses enough moderates to take a fatal hit in Fairfax. Likely / lean D tbh


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on September 05, 2017, 08:30:10 PM
Gillespie came out in favor of Tom Cotton's plan to restrict LEGAL immigration as part of a DACA solution.

()

Does he realize Virginia isn't Arkansas?

Why does he even mention crime in a post about DACA? DACA enrollees pass a background check and have no criminal records...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on September 05, 2017, 08:33:45 PM
I mean the Post is left-leaning, but this shows how strong Northam is honestly. Gillespie clearly has seen internal polling suggesting he is facing enthusiasm / approval / support gaps and has to make a move somewhere, so he is throwing out red meat for the base and hoping that left-leavers in NOVA don't notice / care.

Smart money says they will though and he loses enough moderates to take a fatal hit in Fairfax. Likely / lean D tbh

You raise a good point. If Gillespie is confident in his support from the base, he's not showing it wih the ads or policy positions he's releasing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 06, 2017, 11:38:39 AM
Quote
Jennifer Rubin‏
Verified account
@JRubinBlogger  23h

Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Suburbia on September 06, 2017, 10:40:34 PM
Gillespie could still win parts of NOVA. He could win some of the ancestral Republicans that are still there and could win some Independents as well.

This race is Tilt D/Tossup. Gillespie is not Cuccinelli.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on September 06, 2017, 10:45:33 PM
Gillespie could still win parts of NOVA. He could win some of the ancestral Republicans that are still there and could win some Independents as well.

This race is Tilt D/Tossup. Gillespie is not Cuccinelli.

I think Vogel being the LG pick could help Ed in NoVA.

However, the president is very unpopular, and this will hurt Gillespie regardless.

Gillespie has been in a "pick your poison" moment since he nearly got beaten by Stewart. He can either go through the barest motions of keeping Stewart/Trump voters in line, and risk alienating moderates in NoVA, or he can go relatively NeverTrump (as he was somewhat essentially until he became more neutral) and risk alienating Stewart voters and those lose by a comfortable margin. As someone who will likely vote for Gillespie, he has a very difficult choice at his hands that could easily doom his campaign either way.

I'd say Gillespie is trying to muddy the waters for now and hope for the best in November.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 07, 2017, 12:15:49 AM
I'm feeling better now ever since Gillespie has started to move right. I think this could sink him in nova, and cause minimal change in rural areas. Back to Lean D.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on September 07, 2017, 12:26:04 AM
Gillespie could still win parts of NOVA. He could win some of the ancestral Republicans that are still there and could win some Independents as well.

Haha.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on September 07, 2017, 10:55:03 AM
Gillespie decided to attack the Washington Post in an official statement for some reason today:
This is an excellent strategy that historically (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_the_President%27s_Men) has always worked for Republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on September 10, 2017, 08:39:21 AM
Quote
Jennifer Rubin‏
Verified account
@JRubinBlogger  23h

Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: fluffypanther19 on September 13, 2017, 08:27:17 PM
Quote
Jennifer Rubin‏
Verified account
@JRubinBlogger  23h

Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.
yeah he done. his path was being a moderate swampy establishment type republican that could get enough votes out of nova combined with the more conservative/trumplican voters. its going to get real hard for a republican to win in Virginia unless they moderate for those nova suburbs


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on September 13, 2017, 09:47:22 PM
Quote
Jennifer Rubin‏
Verified account
@JRubinBlogger  23h

Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.

Except that it isn't accurate ? (http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/republican-candidate-for-virginia-governor-dreamers-should-not-be-deported/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on September 14, 2017, 06:47:40 PM
Quote
Jennifer Rubin‏
Verified account
@JRubinBlogger  23h

Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.

Except that it isn't accurate ? (http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/republican-candidate-for-virginia-governor-dreamers-should-not-be-deported/)
Lmao at the notion that electoral politics have anything to do with what is or is not accurate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 16, 2017, 01:40:56 PM
Northam has twice as much cash as Gillespie, after recovering from primary (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-has-twice-as-much-cash-in-va-governors-race-recovering-from-costly-primary/2017/09/16/65c543be-9a45-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html?utm_term=.db4dda33bbe3)

Northam previously was down to Gillespie 2 to 1.

Quote
In July and August, Northam raised $7.2 million, while Gillespie took in $3.7 million in the same period.

That left Northam, the sitting lieutenant governor, with $5.6 million in cash to Gillespie’s $2.6 million as of Aug. 31, according to data released Saturday by the non-profit Virginia Public Access Project.

Northam’s summer fundraising erases a 2-1 cash advantage that Gillespie held immediately after the June 13 primary. Northam spent most of his early money on the primary contest to defeat former congressman Tom Perriello for the Democratic nomination while Gillespie had conserved funds in his primary match against Corey A. Stewart.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 17, 2017, 08:09:12 PM
Gillespie probably has the same chance of winning this race as Doug Jones in AL. Right now I think this race will be relatively close (with Northam still winning, obviously), but I wouldn't be surprised if Gillespie lost by 7-9 or so on election day.

IMO Fairfax and Herring are going to win fairly easily, even if Gillespie somehow wins the gubernatorial race by <0.5.

Vogel is a strong candidate, I actually think she has the highest chance of winning out of the three GOPer's on the statewide ticket.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on September 18, 2017, 11:51:38 AM
Great ad from the RN campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-sfBAJ09bU


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on September 18, 2017, 11:56:50 AM
Great ad from the RN campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-sfBAJ09bU

This is a pretty solid ad, but he needs to cut this into a 30-second spot if he hasn't already. The main reason Gillespie is keeping it close is because he's dominated the airwaves recently and his ads are pretty good -- most people probably would forget he's a Republican after watching them.

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on September 18, 2017, 01:32:33 PM
Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on September 18, 2017, 07:36:00 PM
Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.

Well, I understand Northam was strapped for cash immediately after the expensive primary, so he had to spend the summer bringing in a big fundraising haul while Gillespie was able to put up numerous ads relatively uncontested. Now he needs to cut a bunch of ads, both positive and negative because there's a lot of material on both sides of that coin.

I certainly hope you're right that they'll go all-out in October, especially in NOVA. We need high turnout in marginal HoD districts, because I fear even some of the most vulnerable Republicans might survive purely on retail politics.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 18, 2017, 11:52:26 PM
VA House of Delegates: The newest excuse to not debate your opponent? "They called me 'Bigoted Bob' :(" I'm not joking. http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/news/conservative-stalwart-bob-marshall-won-t-debate-his-transgender-challenger/article_e0af2790-99b2-11e7-9610-7bcee4af5d7c.html


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on September 20, 2017, 07:39:14 AM
Link to last night's debate (full length) video https://www.c-span.org/video/?434272-1/virgina-gubernatorial-debate


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 20, 2017, 01:48:13 PM
Debate Synopsis Article says no game-changer moment occured: http://wamu.org/story/17/09/20/five-takeaways-virginia-gubernatorial-debate/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on September 20, 2017, 04:13:07 PM
Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on September 20, 2017, 04:14:42 PM
Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

What was his reason in 2014?

I assume it wasn’t due to same last names :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on September 20, 2017, 06:44:12 PM
Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

I'm more curious about Jim Webb's endorsement at this point.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Maxwell on September 20, 2017, 09:12:23 PM
Trump's penchant for nicknames has now infected the Ralph Northam campaign -
 meet ENRON ED (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1pehIpRvo8)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frodo on September 20, 2017, 11:12:46 PM
Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

What was his reason in 2014?

I assume it wasn’t due to same last names :)

John and Mark are friends.  It's as simple as that. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on September 22, 2017, 10:16:57 AM
Northam made some big ad buys last week:

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on September 22, 2017, 04:07:18 PM
Sealing the deal.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on September 25, 2017, 05:21:42 PM

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2017, 10:53:02 AM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on September 27, 2017, 11:15:52 AM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2017, 12:05:03 PM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 12:26:39 PM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MasterJedi on September 27, 2017, 12:30:40 PM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Blair on September 27, 2017, 12:31:56 PM
https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

Quote
The Gillespie playbook is pretty simple, define your opponent before they can define themselves. Some of you may remember the somewhat surprising mid-summer attack blitz that Obama launched against Romney in 2012. Romney never emerged from that hole. This is not much different, just scaled down to a governor’s race. Northam may have started out with a sizable advantage, in a climate that should certainly favor a Democrat, not to mention a decent and thoughtful man with the experience to take over as Governor. The Northam lead has all but evaporated and undecideds are moving towards Gillespie at more than twice the rate as Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 01:15:17 PM
https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

Quote
The Gillespie playbook is pretty simple, define your opponent before they can define themselves. Some of you may remember the somewhat surprising mid-summer attack blitz that Obama launched against Romney in 2012. Romney never emerged from that hole. This is not much different, just scaled down to a governor’s race. Northam may have started out with a sizable advantage, in a climate that should certainly favor a Democrat, not to mention a decent and thoughtful man with the experience to take over as Governor. The Northam lead has all but evaporated and undecideds are moving towards Gillespie at more than twice the rate as Northam.

I was talking to miles about the race he told me that both candidates suck mainly cause northam has no message unless you count him attacking Gillespie to trump I told him my prediction with a 0.3% win for Gillespie he sort of laughed about but yesterday he messaged me telling me that I should have listened to you again coming from someone who lives in Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 27, 2017, 01:21:38 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Northam blew this. It was obvious in the primary this guy was bland and had no actual message.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on September 27, 2017, 01:33:07 PM
A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 02:10:45 PM
A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.
You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on September 27, 2017, 02:36:36 PM
https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

Quote
The Gillespie playbook is pretty simple, define your opponent before they can define themselves. Some of you may remember the somewhat surprising mid-summer attack blitz that Obama launched against Romney in 2012. Romney never emerged from that hole. This is not much different, just scaled down to a governor’s race. Northam may have started out with a sizable advantage, in a climate that should certainly favor a Democrat, not to mention a decent and thoughtful man with the experience to take over as Governor. The Northam lead has all but evaporated and undecideds are moving towards Gillespie at more than twice the rate as Northam.


I think you kinda hit the nail on the head about why Northam kinda rubs me the wrong way. He's a nice man IMO, but he seems to have even less of a vision/message than Gillespie (Gillespie's message is about being pragmatic and spurring economic growth). All I know about Northam is he's a nice guy who is a doctor and also has a hobby horse about removing statues. This is why I put the race as a toss up. I'm sure Northam will do decently as governor even as someone like me who is voting for Gillespie, but he's just pretty bland as a candidate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 27, 2017, 02:42:38 PM
A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.
You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

You have no idea what you are talking about, the polls nailed Virginia in 2016:

()

 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on September 27, 2017, 02:51:19 PM
A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

To me, I think it really depends on who has the enthusiasm advantage here. Yes, these are kind of boring candidates (imo), and Northam doesn't really have a spark, but he's not that bad of a candidate. In the end, he's still been leading comfortably in pretty much every poll - polls that were accurate in 2016 when push came to shove. Combined with that, despite people constantly mentioning Gillespie 2014, this is not a favorable year for the GOP. Turnout dropped in 2014 below historical standards, and the wave environment helped him. If anyone would over-perform this year, it would probably be Northam, as we all know Democrats are very enthusiastic right now. The massive primary participation earlier this year is one more example (albeit maybe a weak one) of that.

I don't know, personally, I wouldn't be betting on the candidate who is losing in every poll in a year under a deeply unpopular Republican president - especially in a state that has a history of turning on the WH in-party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2017, 03:16:45 PM
A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

To me, I think it really depends on who has the enthusiasm advantage here. Yes, these are kind of boring candidates (imo), and Northam doesn't really have a spark, but he's not that bad of a candidate. In the end, he's still been leading comfortably in pretty much every poll - polls that were accurate in 2016 when push came to shove. Combined with that, despite people constantly mentioning Gillespie 2014, this is not a favorable year for the GOP. Turnout dropped in 2014 below historical standards, and the wave environment helped him. If anyone would over-perform this year, it would probably be Northam, as we all know Democrats are very enthusiastic right now. The massive primary participation earlier this year is one more example (albeit maybe a weak one) of that.

I don't know, personally, I wouldn't be betting on the candidate who is losing in every poll in a year under a deeply unpopular Republican president - especially in a state that has a history of turning on the WH in-party.

On that note, has Gillespie been ahead, or within the MoE, in more than what, one poll?

Still don't like how close this has become. I preferred Perriello, as much as that may surprise some of you.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 06:11:35 PM
A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.
You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

You have no idea what you are talking about, the polls nailed Virginia in 2016:

()

 
Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on September 27, 2017, 06:19:07 PM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.

This.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 06:31:50 PM
Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.

This.
Just you wait Gillespie is going to way outperform the polls even if he loses he going to do how he did in 2014.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on September 27, 2017, 06:33:21 PM
Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

You mean the VA polls taken around the time of the AH tape, or the August ones taken around the time of the Kahn drama? Why wouldn't the polls show a Clinton surge then? Do you think the race was exactly the same then as it was on election day? It's not like the election is the same every single day of the season.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 07:20:28 PM
Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

You mean the VA polls taken around the time of the AH tape, or the August ones taken around the time of the Kahn drama? Why wouldn't the polls show a Clinton surge then? Do you think the race was exactly the same then as it was on election day? It's not like the election is the same every single day of the season.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.
Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on September 27, 2017, 07:22:32 PM

Still don't like how close this has become. I preferred Perriello, as much as that may surprise some of you.

A Democrat, even in a particularly good year, was most likely never going to win by 10-12 points in Virginia like that one stretch of polls may have suggested. Republicans always come home -- the key questions are always when and how much of them.

I also continue to reject the assertion that Perriello would've been a stronger candidate. Northam, afforded by his culturally Southern personality, was afforded a little bit of leeway on the Confederate statues issue, and even then he took some heat for it. Perriello on the other hand has seemed to leave his conservative background in the dust and has gone full-throttle social progressive, especially after Charlottesville. This isn't even mentioning the upper hand Gillespie would probably have with six-figure indys who typically break Dem in statewide races. Perriello's regional advantage also would not have won him as many votes as Northam is likely to in Eastern VA, as seen in numerous polls.


Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.

Also should be mentioned the Clinton campaign mostly abandoned Virginia (and Colorado) in August only to return in the last week before the election, which was a smart decision in retrospect.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: JonHawk on September 27, 2017, 09:02:29 PM
Me personally, i consider this to a toss up. Alot of liberals here are seem overconfident as usual imo


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on September 27, 2017, 09:43:53 PM
McAuliffe had a Lean, and somehow only won by two against someone far less with it than Gillespie...and T-Mac had name recognition at that.

What does that say about a mere Tilt and relative obscurity?







Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on September 27, 2017, 10:31:54 PM
Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

But that was still basically during the AH tape controversy (if you're talking about around Oct 18-20th) - it's not like that whole ordeal's effects on Trump's electoral support only lasted a few days or a week, and if you remember that particular point in October was filled to the brim with Trump scandals that just kept stacking up. It was a very active October. I'm not even sure exactly what poll you're talking about, either. Quinnipiac was the last one I see in RCP's 2-way polls showing double digits for her, which was taken Oct 20th - 26th. Having one poll you think was absurd at the time, and then using that to say all the polls were wrong despite them clearly not being wrong, is kind of ridiculous.

The RCP average for the 2-way and 4-way in Virginia 2016 was very accurate. It was only off by 0.1% in the 2-way. Just because it was off in 2014 and to a lesser degree, in 2013, doesn't mean it's always wrong. Think about this, if you're always going to call the polls "fake" just because they were wrong in 2014, you're predictions really become based on nothing more than what you want to happen. That is not really a good way to go about this.

But, you know, to each their own. If you think all the polls are always wrong, there is nothing really to debate here. Your views on this race are locked in, with no way to challenge them, absent Gillespie massively imploding beyond any doubt (and even what you consider 'beyond any doubt' is ambiguous)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 27, 2017, 11:22:08 PM
Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

But that was still basically during the AH tape controversy (if you're talking about around Oct 18-20th) - it's not like that whole ordeal's effects on Trump's electoral support only lasted a few days or a week, and if you remember that particular point in October was filled to the brim with Trump scandals that just kept stacking up. It was a very active October. I'm not even sure exactly what poll you're talking about, either. Quinnipiac was the last one I see in RCP's 2-way polls showing double digits for her, which was taken Oct 20th - 26th. Having one poll you think was absurd at the time, and then using that to say all the polls were wrong despite them clearly not being wrong, is kind of ridiculous.

The RCP average for the 2-way and 4-way in Virginia 2016 was very accurate. It was only off by 0.1% in the 2-way. Just because it was off in 2014 and to a lesser degree, in 2013, doesn't mean it's always wrong. Think about this, if you're always going to call the polls "fake" just because they were wrong in 2014, you're predictions really become based on nothing more than what you want to happen. That is not really a good way to go about this.

But, you know, to each their own. If you think all the polls are always wrong, there is nothing really to debate here. Your views on this race are locked in, with no way to challenge them, absent Gillespie massively imploding beyond any doubt (and even what you consider 'beyond any doubt' is ambiguous)
I never said northam can't win I have the race as toss up right but I honestly think ed is going to pull a upset but again the polls in 2014 never had a poll with Gillespie leading tied or less then 3 points behind the GOP thought the race was a lost cause while they dumped millions into New Hampshire and that race wasn't even that close.
Also not all polls are bad but State polls are 100% look at 2016 Pennsylvania or Michigan or Nevada or Wisconsin those polls were all junk.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Blair on September 28, 2017, 10:15:23 AM
I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on September 28, 2017, 11:34:48 AM
I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

Kaine at minimum


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 28, 2017, 01:13:17 PM
I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

Kaine at minimum

I've heard talk that Obama will be campaigning in October for Northam and Murphy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 28, 2017, 02:38:10 PM
Now Lean D. Used to be Tilt D, but now in the final stretch, Northam is starting to bring home the bacon, and get a lot of additional resources. People keep whining about how the polling was so viked up in several states throughout the country, and especially pointing to 2016, but if they actually bothered to look at the 2016 polls for Virginia, they would see that they were pretty on point, and like at least half the pollsters are still the same. 2014 was pretty wrong, but at least they still predicted the winner correctly (albeit barely), and really improved their accuracy in 2016. Plus, these polls really do pass the common sense test, and pretty much backup what most people are thinking, Lean D.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on September 29, 2017, 10:29:06 AM
Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on September 29, 2017, 10:37:44 AM
Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on September 29, 2017, 01:14:42 PM
Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

I'd agree with this if Stewart is the Republican nominee. Not as confident if it's Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 29, 2017, 02:31:01 PM
Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

I'd agree with this if Stewart is the Republican nominee. Not as confident if it's Gillespie.

Gillespie should will probably be finally dealt with in the coming weeks when he loses a second time.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on September 29, 2017, 04:15:19 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/29/terry-mcauliffe-fund-virginia-races-243308

Quote
McAuliffe is planning on Saturday to transfer $100,000 more to Virginia House of Delegates campaigns and the state Democrats’ coordinated campaign, a Democrat familiar with the plans told POLITICO. The move pushes his contributions and fundraising past the $1 million mark for his state’s Democratic candidates.

Quote
The bulk of the money — a combination of direct donations from McAuliffe’s Common Good VA PAC and funds raised at the two big-dollar events he hosted — has gone to Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, Democrats’ nominee to replace McAuliffe. A close friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton, McAuliffe also arranged Northam’s upcoming fundraiser (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/27/hillary-clinton-fundraising-ralph-northam-virginia-governor-race-243241) with Democrats’ 2016 presidential nominee in New York next month.

McAuliffe has also spread campaign cash to House of Delegates candidates, Attorney General Mark Herring, and lieutenant governor candidate Justin Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on September 29, 2017, 05:30:37 PM
Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 29, 2017, 05:37:59 PM
Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.

Ehhh... Clinton also did unprecedentedly awful outside the metro areas.  Didn't matter a bit.  It's almost inevitable that VA-09 (and neighboring districts like KY-05 and WV-03) will be the GOP's answer to NY-15 and CA-13 within 20 years.  I don't expect it to change the statewide Dem edge in VA at all.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on September 29, 2017, 09:52:10 PM
Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.

Ehhh... Clinton also did unprecedentedly awful outside the metro areas. Didn't matter a bit. I don't expect it to change the statewide Dem edge in VA at all.

This. Strong D outcome this year. The only major statewide election (excluding LTGOV & AG) won by Republicans since 2006 was when Bob McDonnell won the governorship. This year won't be the second. ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kevin on October 02, 2017, 03:12:01 AM
I didn't see this posted anywhere else but both Gillespie and Vogel have earned the powerful NOVA Chamber of Commerce endorsement.

http://www.insidenova.com/news/n-va-chamber-of-commerce-endorses-gillespie-vogel-herring-in/article_01b0a994-a536-11e7-8ba0-4f82a7a7f47f.html

Before everyone shouts it down as a "GOP hack operation" they aren't entirely biased as they have endorsed AG Herring's reelection effort and supported all 3 Statewide Dems last time, as well as a number of local/state leg Def candidates.

I personally felt up until few days ago that Northam had a slight upper hand(and he might still) but I'm seeing an increasing possibility that he might blow this since alot of influential statewide organizations that usually side with the winner are picking Gillespie over him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 02, 2017, 11:55:14 AM
Ultimately there is little to no evidence that the race has changed from where it started: Northam up by a few points. If the final RCP average shows Northam up by 1 or 2, I'd be inclined to give it to Gillespie since Undecided voters broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016 (Hillary getting <50% was a surprise). But we're not seeing that yet - Northam is currently up 4 in that average, and it has been remarkably stable for months.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 02, 2017, 10:03:04 PM
Ultimately there is little to no evidence that the race has changed from where it started: Northam up by a few points. If the final RCP average shows Northam up by 1 or 2, I'd be inclined to give it to Gillespie since Undecided voters broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016 (Hillary getting <50% was a surprise). But we're not seeing that yet - Northam is currently up 4 in that average, and it has been remarkably stable for months.

That's because Gillespie has done nothing, absolutely nothing to change the dynamic in his favor. Almost running like he wants to lose this race. Northam's win will ensure Democratic governors have been in office 16 of the last 20 years by the time he leaves office. Even if Northam were to end up being a mediocre moderate while in office, I'd take him over Gillespie everytime. ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 03, 2017, 12:03:14 AM
Prediction:

Northam + 6
House of delegates: +8 dem

I think Gillepsie has been running a better campaign so he will overperform the house of delegates. I could see Northam doing worse than +6, but pretty sure house of delegates will be at least +8 dem.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 03, 2017, 01:49:34 PM
Honestly, I've been thinking that a Northam win of +5 - +6 would actually be pretty underwhelming, all things considered. I know it's a pretty standard margin prediction for Virginia, but Democrats like Kaine and Warner were picking up similar margins back in the early-mid 2000s. This was when the state was more Republican-leaning. On top of this, the Democratic Party's base is exceptionally fired up under an incumbent Republican president who is deeply unpopular not only in Virginia, nationally as well. With this in mind, a Democratic candidate really should be able to break double-digits without too much of a sweat.

That being said, I think I might be rather disappointed if Democrats don't score big this cycle, because most of what we know about the VA political environment suggests they should.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 03, 2017, 02:53:46 PM
Honestly, I've been thinking that a Northam win of +5 - +6 would actually be pretty underwhelming, all things considered. I know it's a pretty standard margin prediction for Virginia, but Democrats like Kaine and Warner were picking up similar margins back in the early-mid 2000s. This was when the state was more Republican-leaning. On top of this, the Democratic Party's base is exceptionally fired up under an incumbent Republican president who is deeply unpopular not only in Virginia, nationally as well. With this in mind, a Democratic candidate really should be able to break double-digits without too much of a sweat.

That being said, I think I might be rather disappointed if Democrats don't score big this cycle, because most of what we know about the VA political environment suggests they should.

The last few elections suggest that Republicans have a solid floor of 46% (or 45% with a strong third party).  Until/Unless Virginia Beach County and Chesterfield county start voting consistently D, that's not going to meaningfully change. The rural constituencies that voted for Warner in 2001 and Kaine in 2005 are Solid R now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 03, 2017, 03:03:56 PM
It's not to say that Democrats should be winning back those lost rural voters, but more that they used to over-perform their presidential performance, and now they are mostly breaking even, give or take. Also, as I noted, this isn't just a normal election year. This is really the best environment a VA Democrat could ask to run in.

Though, I guess this could be too simplistic of a view.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 04, 2017, 10:09:34 AM
Latest mailers the VA GOP is sending out https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/915390502337482753

Northam wants to "erase history" and "make life easier for illegals" yada yada


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 04, 2017, 12:29:12 PM
If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 04, 2017, 05:12:00 PM
If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.

Good to know you support racism.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 04, 2017, 10:01:29 PM
If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.

It will absolutely have the opposite effect. NoVA voters won't fall for that crap. Gillespie is grasping at straws in his final month of campaigning. VA is much more diverse than the 'good ole boys' of yesteryear. NO TRACTION FOR GRASPING AT STRAWS GILLESPIE.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 05, 2017, 06:15:52 PM
I used to think Gillespie was OK, but he has shown his real self over the past couple of months. He is so fake, and "fakely moderate" that it is nearly unbearable for me to even hear him anymore. I think people, and especially moderates in NOVA, are starting to see through him. That's probably why Northam is pulling ahead now. That, and a lot of undecideds coming to Northam, and big $$$ for him. I can't wait for this little sh!t to get defeated again next month.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 05, 2017, 10:03:49 PM
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 05, 2017, 10:10:29 PM
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



lol, what


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2017, 10:22:20 PM
Just what Gillespie needs!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 05, 2017, 10:22:20 PM
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



lol, what

I don't think Gillespie really wanted his dog whistle to get picked up by Trump's bullhorn... but maybe if we're lucky Ralph will get a "nickname"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on October 05, 2017, 10:55:35 PM
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"


Who asked this idiot to get involved? Luckily he is a toxic figure in the area Gillespie needs most.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 06, 2017, 02:15:46 AM
I used to think Gillespie was OK, but he has shown his real self over the past couple of months. He is so fake, and "fakely moderate" that it is nearly unbearable for me to even hear him anymore. I think people, and especially moderates in NOVA, are starting to see through him. That's probably why Northam is pulling ahead now. That, and a lot of undecideds coming to Northam, and big $$$ for him. I can't wait for this little sh!t to get defeated again next month.

Gillespie's real self?  been MIA for a long time.  It's embarrising.  Today in my mailbox I got a flyer from him talking about the evils of "restoring rights of violent criminals"  and somehow ex-felons voting is "dangerous." lol   It's pure cynical capitualtion to this weird idea he seems to have that a Trump/Stewart approach will win him the governorship, no way he believes this stuff he's putting out there.
I think he's managed to get me to vote libertarian again this time.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 06, 2017, 10:57:00 AM
Gillespie seems to be throwing whatever at the wall and seeing what sticks sanctuary cities, MS-13, confederate statues. Doesn't seem to be really reaching out to swing voters just stoking enough fear to get the nativist base out.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on October 06, 2017, 11:49:09 AM
Northam's using this tweet as a fundraising tool. (https://twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/916123416159248390)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on October 06, 2017, 11:56:43 AM
Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



Kiss of Death.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 06, 2017, 01:28:55 PM
I literally predicted yesterday in the WaPo poll thread that Gillespie would abandon his previous strategy and tack right on confederate monuments.

I'm a bit surprised everyone here is either surprised or thinks this is a poor strategy. Running as a moderate hero works when you're ahead in money and can define your opponent. Once your opponent has a money advantage, however, people who are disinclined to like candidates from your party will 'see through you' (see: bagel's post a few posts back) and vote for your opponent anyway.

So of course Gillespie tacked right, he needs Stewart voters and right-wingers to show up in spades since he feels that any opening he might've had two months ago with left-leaning voters has been totally shut down by Northam's spending advantage over the last month or so - indeed, if I had to guess I'd bet that Gillespie and co. are really wishing they had spent more energy fundraising through August, and feel like they blew through their funds way prematurely.

Obviously all of this is great news for Northam since all he needs to have happen now is left-leaning voters show up in a midterm where they hate the president, which historically has been an excellent bet. Gillespie is probably hoping he will get a revival of grassroots support over October which, combined with a late spending and ad push to make one last token effort towards right-leaning moderates, might cobble together a large enough coalition in a low-turnout election.

I don't think the strategy is bad so much as the situation, basically. Northam played this one well and deserves a lot of credit - he was getting second-guessed right through August for his refusal to blow through funds and a relative lack of on-the-ground campaigning, but he read the state of the race well and positioned himself to basically just have to not make a monumental blunder that turns off left-leaners in the last week or two of the race.

Basically I predict that Gillespie will spend the next week or two rallying his base and fundraising while Northam buries him with ads in NOVA and The Hampton Roads areas, then Gillespie will make one last attempt to appeal to moderates (and in particular libertarians) over the final stretch. If Stewart and Trump don't actively endorse him in the next week or so I think it's a death knell for Gillespie because it'll mean his base doesn't care, and even if that happens if the final polls don't turn towards him a bit (indicating leaners coming back to him) he's finished a well.

Likely D


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 06, 2017, 01:36:19 PM
Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Blair on October 06, 2017, 02:21:43 PM
Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

Of course Northam's people are going to paint the picture of a competitive race. After seeing what happened last year when Hillary had a lead in the polls and everyone assuming her victory inevitable, why wouldn't they try to avoid any sense of complacency again? They're not going to come out and say "look at the strong lead we have" and jerk themselves off to that. They're well aware that saying such things would project complacency and possibly demotivate their base. If I was running the Northam campaign, I would even release internal polls showing me up only 1 or even tied. That's the best way to get your base anxious as hell.

There's an element of truth to this; they want every democratic group coming to help, and articles like this do a great deal. There's a reason Obama is going to Virginia rather than New Jersey.

It's not a stretch to say however that democrats are worried about this race; although it appears to be one of those campaigns where you can tell it's not going perfectly, but have no idea how to actually change that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 06, 2017, 03:44:52 PM
Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.
Articles from The Daily Beast are little more than propaganda for the progressive cause. In this case, the angle is that Northam is not progressive enough, hasn't consolidated the Bernie Sanders wing of the party and so is due to underperform (while remaining clear that he remains a prohibitive favorite if you read it carefully). In other words, a click-baity and self-contradictory article intended to perpetuate progressive talking points.

Northam is clearly ahead and he is clearly not ahead by 13. His spending advantage in September massively bolstered his chances and has forced a strategy change from Gillespie that is obviously a desperado play. Northam was never a sure thing to be elected and there are shades of Hillary Clinton here, but Hillary, frankly, would have won the election at most points in the fall, with perhaps only a few weeks around mid-late September and early November (when it was held) where she would have lost. Northam would win if the election were held today and is narrowing avenues for his opponent to win in the process, which is all you can do as a candidate. People change their minds and opinions of who to vote for very quickly and sometimes over things outside of your control, but Northam has managed to win the fundraising game and is thus piling on ad after ad targeting the same voters Gillespie has based his entire campaign around - moderates. If Gillespie tacks right then Northam will move in on right-leaners, and if he tacks left Northam will use the image he is crafting of Gillespie to nip that in the bud.

Don't get me wrong, Gillespie is very saavy and knows what he has to do to give himself the best possible chance. Just he never had the same fundraising level or support Northam did in this race, and is going to have to rely on a surge in base voter support or a Northam mistake to have a chance. I doubt even in the best case for Northam that it'll be more than a 5 or 7 point, however - Virginia is not that far gone for the GOP.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 06, 2017, 07:15:29 PM
Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.
I doubt even in the best case for Northam that it'll be more than a 5 or 7 point, however - Virginia is not that far gone for the GOP.

I believe it is that far gone for the GOP, this fall specifically. I just don't see a path to Gillespie winning even if he had everything go perfectly for him between now and election day. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's, I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by at least 6-8% each.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2017, 08:20:41 PM
I remember last year's GOP "Hillary is ahead in Indiana and Missouri!!" internals. ::)

Unless they release the full poll with methodology, I'm not going to believe it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 06, 2017, 09:02:12 PM
Driving back to central Va tonight, I heard Gillespie's latest radio ad slamming Northam for prioritizing statue removal to the tune of "millions that could go to better schools, etc." He is going all in on making Northam look like some far left warrior when he is a moderate. This is all to play up the central Virginia older white vote as well as the undecided WWC. The ad itself was BS and full of near slanders.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 06, 2017, 09:52:11 PM
Ed Shillespie. Only 32 more days until he gets flushed.

mod note (10/06/2017): language


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on October 06, 2017, 11:17:13 PM
I remember last year's GOP "Hillary is ahead in Indiana and Missouri!!" internals. ::)

Unless they release the full poll with methodology, I'm not going to believe it.

I'm putting the race as Tilt-D at this rate (I think Northam will end up winning), but I haven't trusted a poll since Mark Warner vs. Ed Gillespie back in 2014.

What a crock of doo doo that was.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on October 07, 2017, 12:33:28 AM
Ed will win


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 07, 2017, 03:28:42 PM

Funniest comment I've read all day! ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 07, 2017, 03:37:00 PM
Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 08, 2017, 06:53:35 AM
Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 08, 2017, 10:52:22 AM
Any predictions on the voter turnout rate? To recap all GOV races since 2001:
2001 - 46.4% turnout - Warner won
2005 - 45% turnout - Kaine won
2009 - 40.4% turnout - McDonnell won
2013 - 43% turnout - McAuliffe won
My prediction is 47 to 48% turnout for 2017. 4 out of (the last) 5 for the Dems. :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 08, 2017, 01:57:52 PM
Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

It sure looks like Gillespie is campaigning as if he thinks the 2016 Dem margins in the suburbs are baked in and the WaPo poll is close to the real state of the race (or, less likely, Northam has unusual rural VA strength).  He's looking for a Hail Mary with rural turnout, which, it should be noted, almost worked for Cuccinelli.  Still, he doesn't have the persona of Cuccinelli.  You would think the low-hanging fruit for him would be in NOVA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on October 08, 2017, 06:12:01 PM
I do not think Gillespie will win (but it will be close), but imagine if he did win. I would love to see Atlas and media reactions to it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 08, 2017, 06:32:22 PM
I do not think Gillespie will win (but it will be close), but imagine if he did win. I would love to see Atlas and media reactions to it.

He's not to be taken lightly, no doubt.  I still think Northam will win by 3, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of Vogel (LG) or Adams (AG) sneaks through downballot with the top of the ticket that close.  The rev up the rural base strategy made both 2013 and 2016 closer than anyone expected.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 08, 2017, 06:38:02 PM
What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Maxwell on October 08, 2017, 06:46:14 PM
I'd be very sad if Gillespie managed to win. But I don't think he will - whether he loses by 2 points or by 10, I think he'll lose.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 08, 2017, 07:46:52 PM
What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 08, 2017, 07:55:09 PM
Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

It sure looks like Gillespie is campaigning as if he thinks the 2016 Dem margins in the suburbs are baked in and the WaPo poll is close to the real state of the race (or, less likely, Northam has unusual rural VA strength).  He's looking for a Hail Mary with rural turnout, which, it should be noted, almost worked for Cuccinelli.  Still, he doesn't have the persona of Cuccinelli.  You would think the low-hanging fruit for him would be in NOVA.

Cuccinelli lost by 56,000 votes. And McAuliffe didn't match 2016 numbers in NoVa - he only won PW 52-44, much narrower than Clinton's 58-37 margin. He only won Loudoun 49-45, much narrower than Clinton's 55-38 margin. And in Fairfax, McAuliffe won 58-36 - nothing wrong with that margin, but it's narrower than Clinton's 64-29 margin.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 08, 2017, 07:56:05 PM
Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

You mean the president's party? Virginia's elections do not operate much differently than midterms, which have almost always swung towards the WH out-party. The added effect of VA's super low turnout off-off-year legislative elections means the party with the most enthusiasm tends to win out. In this case, Democrats stand to benefit a great deal if Trump is still unpopular in 2019. There are a number of GOP-held state Senate seats that will make excellent targets, and this time the party's base is fired up enough to strongly contest them, incumbent or not.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 09, 2017, 11:30:42 AM
United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam. (http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/)

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 09, 2017, 11:39:26 AM
What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

I wouldn't say that at all.  It could actually be argued that being governor actually helps your party in the off-cycle.  These are the results for the most recent off year elections :

2015:. McAuliffe(D): D+1 in House, no change in Senate
2011:  McDonnell (R): R+8 in House, R+2 in Senate
2007:. Kaine(D): D+4 in House, D+4 in Senate

The last off year that really went against the governor's party was 1991 when Doug Wilder was very unpopular.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 09, 2017, 12:42:37 PM
United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam. (http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/)

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Yes! That's my boy Northam!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 09, 2017, 02:47:51 PM
United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam. (http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/)

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Big momentum heading into the last inches of the race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on October 09, 2017, 06:24:43 PM
United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam. (http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/)

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Big momentum heading into the last inches of the race.
That's a bit of a surprise. All I've been hearing about Northam lately is that he's taking the usual D strategy of focusing on the urban crescent and ignoring the rest. The endorsement might help keep Gillespie's margins down in the coal counties of SW VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 09, 2017, 07:06:25 PM
United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam. (http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/)

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Wow. That definitely helps him.

----------
At this point, my confidence level that Northam will win this is about 75%. If you had asked me that question immediately after the primary, my answer would have been more around 60%. Even when the Washington Post poll is eliminated from the RCP average (and is substituted with the sixth most recent poll to keep it at a 5-poll average), Northam's lead is at a fairly comfortable 5.4%, which may not be so great if it's July, but it's just fine for October. It's difficult to see Gillespie pulling this off without an October surprise.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frodo on October 09, 2017, 07:09:09 PM
United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam. (http://augustafreepress.com/united-mine-workers-america-endorses-ralph-northam-governor/)

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

:)

Yeah -now would be a good time to turn our attention to the House of Delegates races... 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GlobeSoc on October 09, 2017, 07:18:05 PM
If coal country cucks Gillespie and Hampton Roads crossover materializes, Northam wins in a blowout


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 09, 2017, 07:32:21 PM
^ I'm wary of expecting the state to do anything more than a point or two bigger than HRC's 5% margin, seeing as even ultra-extremist E.W. Jackson lost by only 10%, and Gillespie is obviously not comparable to him.  But it's not completely impossible that this is the year where republicans fall below their current floor of 45%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 09, 2017, 10:31:55 PM
Debate earlier tonight:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?435325-1/candidates-face-virginia-governors-debate

Northam is getting lots of praise from the left on twitter for asking Gillespie a question about long-acting contraceptives.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 11, 2017, 09:56:41 AM
It’s just ridiculous pols are still pandering to coal in VA. Just reading the WaPo article on Gillespie promising to bring back the coal tax credit and Northam continuing to placate coal.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 11, 2017, 04:40:27 PM
It’s just ridiculous pols are still pandering to coal in VA. Just reading the WaPo article on Gillespie promising to bring back the coal tax credit and Northam continuing to placate coal.

Bashing Coal at a debate held in Coal Country VA would be a very poor strategic move.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Pericles on October 11, 2017, 05:55:13 PM
Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 11, 2017, 05:58:37 PM
Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained

I mean, he could win. There has always been a chance.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 11, 2017, 06:12:22 PM
Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 11, 2017, 06:45:51 PM
Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained

There's like a 1 in 4 chance Gillespie pulls it off. Not likely but far from unforseeable.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 11, 2017, 07:09:59 PM
Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 11, 2017, 07:42:56 PM
Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

This is a culturally Southern downstate Democrat against a culturally DC Republican in a state level.  You can expect a lot of voters to differentiate them from Hillary Clinton and Trump.  Herring did better than Northam in Loudoun in 2013, even as Herring won by 1000 votes and Northam won by 10%.  Being an insider who is "from" NOVA can make a difference there.  Similarly, there are probably a bunch of people (mainly) in the countryside with their MAGA hats who see Gillespie and think, "Ewww, another corrupt lobbyist!"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2017, 07:43:58 PM
Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on October 11, 2017, 09:13:06 PM
Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

The problem is that skipping Buena Vista would get a lot more publicity than attending a campaign thingy in Harrisonburg.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 11, 2017, 09:24:48 PM
Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

The problem is that skipping Buena Vista would get a lot more publicity than attending a campaign thingy in Harrisonburg.

Precisely, which is why Tim Kaine went for it in 2012, even though he was never by ANY measure behind George "Macaca" Allen.

It's like the state's version of how every Democrat goes to Wisconsin [well except for well...you know who].

Anyway, it's too late now, the Labor Day Parade was the day to go there as a good faith move, AND he could've ginned up the base in the VMI/W&L town of Lexington as well.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on October 11, 2017, 10:06:33 PM
Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2017, 10:16:53 PM
Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

Northam's lead has been expanding (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 11, 2017, 10:21:48 PM
Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

Northam's lead has been expanding (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html)

If he's already at 49, he can probably afford a 2013/14 situation where all of the undecideds go Republican because there is a libertarian who will take a couple percent.  He could still end up winning by just 1-2% in that scenario, though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 12, 2017, 11:13:33 AM
A poll taken of Virginia's 10th has Trump down 37/59 and Comstock losing to generic dem 48-39. So Ed's got to walk around some serious Trump hate in NOVA that is already hurting Barbara https://mobile.twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918483568577441792


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on October 12, 2017, 11:15:23 AM
A poll taken of Virginia's 10th has Trump down 37/59 and Comstock losing to generic dem 48-39. So Ed's got to walk around some serious Trump hate in NOVA that is already hurting Barbara https://mobile.twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918483568577441792
Bye, bye, bye Barbara-Ann.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 12, 2017, 01:36:53 PM
A poll taken of Virginia's 10th has Trump down 37/59 and Comstock losing to generic dem 48-39. So Ed's got to walk around some serious Trump hate in NOVA that is already hurting Barbara https://mobile.twitter.com/AliLapp/status/918483568577441792

I stand by my posts last night that challenged the notion that Gillespie was "fine" in NOVA. He is not gonna do anywhere near as well there as he did in 2014.

Agreed.

People really underestimate how lazy of a campaign Warner ran in 2014 and that played a major role in Gillespie over performing in NOVA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 12, 2017, 02:37:07 PM
I also don't see a reason to be confident that Gillespie's getting what he needs in NOVA. Granted, he can probably afford to be a touch behind his 2014 NOVA numbers if he's matching Trump in rural areas, but he does need to significantly outperform Cuccinelli '13 levels, which he may or may not be doing. (which were 36% in Fairfax, 45% in Loudoun, 44% in PW)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 12, 2017, 03:00:51 PM
Comstock should just run for Senate. Losing a statewide race is less embarrassing than losing a House seat you've held for a while.

lol there are talks for Trump to campaign for Gillespie. lmao


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 12, 2017, 04:32:26 PM
No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 12, 2017, 04:41:20 PM
No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

IF it's even legit, September 24-28... that was two weeks ago.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 12, 2017, 04:52:17 PM
No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Uh.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 12, 2017, 04:58:44 PM
I believe that Gillespie could be at a 2 point deficit among Likely voters in a favorable sample (ie one where he does better than the true population mean). The margin of error of this poll overlaps with those from more reliable (as in all other) pollsters.

That being said this is probably an internal of some kind or methodologically inaccurate due to various causes. It's hard to believe that Gillespie is actually within a few points right now (5 or 6 is probably the true mean of polling difference).

The question will be how many unlikely voters and those unwilling to state a preference break for Gillespie at the end. I'll bet it'll be a disappointing number as of now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 12, 2017, 05:37:26 PM
Late Deciders broke Republican in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016, so I'd expect them to break republican again. Of course, the exact margin republicans get among Late Deciders matters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 12, 2017, 06:05:34 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/918612254106505217
Mike pence to campaign with Gillespie October 14th.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 12, 2017, 06:23:51 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/918612254106505217
Mike pence to campaign with Gillespie October 14th.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/354968-obama-to-campaign-with-dem-va-governor-candidate

I'd take this one all day every day! ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 12, 2017, 06:30:19 PM
Late Deciders broke Republican in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016, so I'd expect them to break republican again. Of course, the exact margin republicans get among Late Deciders matters.

No, they did not in 2008 and 2012, if you're basing it off RCP. Democrats overperformed anywhere from 2-5 points in Presidential and Senate races.

I really don't understand this silly idea that "since Gillespie and other Republicans overperformed in off-years in the Obama era, he/they'll do it again!" Obama almost inarguably drove GOP turnout and enthusiasm in those off-years. Now we have Trump. Democrats overperformed in the last gubernatorial race under a Republican President. I guess we'll see here in just 3.5 weeks!

Using exit polling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 12, 2017, 07:19:36 PM
Just voted like an hour ago:

()

I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 12, 2017, 07:27:48 PM
Identical to my ticket were I Virginian :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 12, 2017, 08:25:12 PM
Just voted like an hour ago:

()

I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

Is candidate order randomized on ballots? Very interesting how all Democrats got placed at the top for each race on your ballot. :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 12, 2017, 08:28:09 PM

ditto


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 12, 2017, 08:52:17 PM
Is candidate order randomized on ballots? Very interesting how all Democrats got placed at the top for each race on your ballot. :P

Nope. I saw somewhere that it's based on which party filed for the election first or something like that, although each county has their own procedures for candidate ranking.

Comstock should just run for Senate. Losing a statewide race is less embarrassing than losing a House seat you've held for a while.

I don't really buy the numbers from that PPP poll for Comstock. Yes, she is probably trailing a Generic D at this point, and yes, she is most likely one of the first Republicans to go down in a Dem wave, but she is not nearly as unpopular as that poll makes it seem, in my opinion. Also she's only a two-termer in the House, and who knows if she has enough clout in NoVA to overpower Stewart, who is the likely 2018 R nominee at this point.

Also I just saw a Gillespie and Northam ad back-to-back on this Nats game I'm watching. Sadly I would say Gillespie talking about cutting taxes is better than Northam pointing out that Gillespie wants abortion banned, at least for the demographic most likely watching this game.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on October 12, 2017, 09:01:14 PM
I'm not sure if anyone here is familiar with McLean, but I go there every weekend, and all I see in the outskirts of the downtown area (the VA-10 portion of McLean) are Gillespie/Adams signs, and back during the presidential election, I saw no Trump signs there. I know yard signs aren't good indicators, but it tells me that these upscale suburban voters are differentiating Gillespie from Trump.

I'm not that familiar with the political geography of Fairfax County, so maybe that's just a traditionally GOP area.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 12, 2017, 09:41:15 PM
Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

Because Tom Perez and NARAL go around telling everyone that promoting abortion is what gets dems out to the polls. Of course, if they would actually look at the data, they'd find that Marist found that at least 40% of dems are to the right of the 2016 democratic platform on abortion, or that the Public Religion Research Institute found that just 36% of dems view abortion as a Critical Issue. But as 2016 showed us, Dems would rather listen to Lawrence O'Donnell brag about how awesomely liberal the country is than bother to actually learn what's really going on.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 12, 2017, 09:54:41 PM
Ignoring Wulfric's usual drivel, the ad is fine in a vacuum. NoVA is a pro-choice area, and it's worth trying to turnout liberal women who don't usually vote in non-presidential elections. The problem it's a bad choice for a baseball game considering the demographics.

Idk, I see different ads from Northam when I'm down in Charlottesville, but I don't watch much cable television so most of my ad viewing comes from watching sporting events.

I'm not sure if anyone here is familiar with McLean, but I go there every weekend, and all I see in the outskirts of the downtown area (the VA-10 portion of McLean) are Gillespie/Adams signs, and back during the presidential election, I saw no Trump signs there. I know yard signs aren't good indicators, but it tells me that these upscale suburban voters are differentiating Gillespie from Trump.

I'm not that familiar with the political geography of Fairfax County, so maybe that's just a traditionally GOP area.

In the somewhat distant past, the McLean and Langley areas were a GOP stronghold. Now, it is far from it, but there are inevitably going to be a lot of Gillespie/Clinton/Gillespie voters in upscale suburbs. Trump was an aberration of epic proportions, and justifying a Trump yard sign was/is much more difficult than one for Gillespie, Comstock, Romney, etc.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 12, 2017, 10:46:18 PM
Just voted like an hour ago:

()

I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

Thank you for your vote, you did good my friend!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 14, 2017, 04:51:27 PM
Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his baby, so to speak.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 14, 2017, 10:41:47 PM
Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his Tom Perez's baby, so to speak.

FTFY


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 15, 2017, 01:05:22 AM
Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on October 15, 2017, 10:07:03 PM
Ed will win by 2 points or more


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 15, 2017, 10:37:17 PM
Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.

It's out of the Anthony Brown playbook of course.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 15, 2017, 11:12:24 PM
Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.

It's out of the Anthony Brown playbook of course.

Did you not get the memo that abortion is the most important issue facing adult Virginians today? /sarc

According to Tom Perez, who controls all, that statement isn't sarcasm at all.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 15, 2017, 11:13:39 PM
Good lord, you're reaching jfern levels with your Tom Perez obsession.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 16, 2017, 10:37:34 AM
Obama is coming to Richmond!

Quote
Gabriel Debenedetti‏
Verified account
@gdebenedetti
Following

Obama's back (again): in addition to appearing for @RalphNortham in Richmond on Thursday, he'll also rally for @PhilMurphyNJ in Newark.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 16, 2017, 10:53:55 AM
Obama is coming to Richmond!

Quote
Gabriel Debenedetti‏
Verified account
@gdebenedetti
Following

Obama's back (again): in addition to appearing for @RalphNortham in Richmond on Thursday, he'll also rally for @PhilMurphyNJ in Newark.

Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 16, 2017, 11:05:27 AM
Obama is coming to Richmond!

Quote
Gabriel Debenedetti‏
Verified account
@gdebenedetti
Following

Obama's back (again): in addition to appearing for @RalphNortham in Richmond on Thursday, he'll also rally for @PhilMurphyNJ in Newark.

Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.



To be fair, Northam appears to be a much better candidate than the aforementioned.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 16, 2017, 11:19:18 AM
Obama is coming to Richmond!

Quote
Gabriel Debenedetti‏
Verified account
@gdebenedetti
Following

Obama's back (again): in addition to appearing for @RalphNortham in Richmond on Thursday, he'll also rally for @PhilMurphyNJ in Newark.

Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.



To be fair, Northam appears to be a much better candidate than the aforementioned.

Obama's rally with Hassan arguably got her over the line.

That race was so close you could literally blame the outcome on anything you like.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 16, 2017, 04:45:06 PM
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 16, 2017, 05:26:16 PM
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 16, 2017, 05:32:27 PM
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 16, 2017, 05:36:02 PM
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM)

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: JonHawk on October 16, 2017, 05:41:29 PM
If Northam ends up winning by only a point or 2.. would be pretty embarrassing for him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 16, 2017, 05:42:53 PM
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

Considering the last Monmouth poll had Northan+5, a 6+ swing to the right is unlikely, especially since nothing notable happened in the past two weeks really. Gillespie certainly could gain ground though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 16, 2017, 05:45:30 PM
Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM)

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....

I don't particularly care who you support since you're a Minnesotan and thus cannot vote in the race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 16, 2017, 06:00:16 PM
Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his Tom Perez's baby, so to speak.

FTFY

No, now it makes literally zero sense.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 16, 2017, 08:00:03 PM
Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 16, 2017, 08:07:01 PM
Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.

Uh, how do you explain my endorsement of Doug Jones for Senate then? (Sure, I criticized him over what he said about Abortion, but I'm still endorsing him in that race.) Or how about the fact that I endorsed a total of 12 pro-choice democrats in the 2016 senate elections, and 6 pro-choice democrats in the 2016 gubernatorial races? Or how about the fact that I endorsed Gillespie early on in this race, before #MelloGate ever happened?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 16, 2017, 08:31:58 PM
Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.

Uh, how do you explain my endorsement of Doug Jones for Senate then?
I will pay you never to discuss politics again.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: super6646 on October 16, 2017, 08:42:37 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 16, 2017, 09:40:45 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html)

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html)

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html)

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html)
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 16, 2017, 09:43:01 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html)

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html)

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html)

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html)
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.


But in the most recent Senate race, Warner got warned.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 16, 2017, 10:03:02 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html)

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html)

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html)

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html)
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.


But in the most recent Senate race, Warner got warned.
Don't forget 2013 as well McAuliffe in the RCP Average was up by 6 in the no third party polls and up by 6.7 with third party's https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html

Won by only 2.5 points


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 16, 2017, 10:16:05 PM
Don't forget 2013 as well McAuliffe in the RCP Average was up by 6 in the no third party polls and up by 6.7 with third party's https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html

Won by only 2.5 points

I think you are missing the point of SoC's post. He was musing whether the candidate in Virginia that over-performs their polling is by default Republicans, or by default the opposition party (eg the party not holding the White House). It is a long-standing trend that the party not holding the White House tends to be more enthusiastic about voting and the party holding the WH tends to have its enthusiasm (and thus turnout) dampened. This is compounded when the incumbent WH president is unpopular and controversial, leading to an even more energetic opposition party. If this trend were to hold, then Northam would be expected to over-perform his polls.

We'll just have to see how this plays out.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 16, 2017, 11:35:30 PM
Yeah but McAuliffe underperformed the polls so


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 17, 2017, 02:59:47 AM
Putting Wulric on ignore was the greatest decision of my life.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 17, 2017, 08:11:28 AM
WaPo piece on the latest attack ads that spin the facts https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/16/in-the-virginias-governors-race-four-pinocchio-attack-ads-on-both-sides/?utm_term=.93b8c4c94328

Gillespie's trick with Norment was especially dirty but it might be effective. I know it has many people downstate labelling Northam as a proponent of crime, no-show Northam, etc. Typical smear job for the low-info voters to drive up turnout. PW and Ffx won't fall for that but off year gubernatorials always have low turnout. I got a Northam donation mailer last night, his last one, that said it was a tie 42-42. I think that is accurate and not spin. This will be a close race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 17, 2017, 10:02:25 AM
Quote
Roanoke (10/8-10/13):
Northam (D) 50%
Gillespie (R) 44%

Wason Center (10/9-10/13):
Northam (D) 48%
Gillespie (R) 44%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/920294510185283585


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: boske94 on October 17, 2017, 12:06:50 PM
New MONMOUTH poll: Gillespie 48% - Northam 47%.
https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/920333715384942592

September was Northam 49 - Gillespie 44


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 12:08:55 PM
To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 17, 2017, 12:09:27 PM
>Monmouth

Look the race has been tightening but I doubt Gillespie is leading, I won't throw out this poll but most are showing a narrow Northam lead.  (I am one of the people saying Gillespie will pull it off btw)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 12:11:20 PM
To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?
I made this prediction make on September 11th
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

100% stand by it now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on October 17, 2017, 12:13:12 PM
Northam will win and Trump/Gillespie will go on a screed about how the blacks in Richmond/Hampton Road cheated. End of story.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skunk on October 17, 2017, 12:14:57 PM
To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?

He won one poll with a 1% lead, get over yourself lol.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 17, 2017, 12:15:10 PM
The reason why that race is so close is the sample is completely different from what Virginia usually is.

The demographics of that poll is 28% democrat 30% republican 43% independent.

In 2016, the demographics in the election were 40% democrat 33% republican 26% independent.

You guys need to look at the crosstabs and not just the numbers. This sample is completely different from Virginia. And it shows that Northam is doing better than Hillary among independents, which is a good sign.

It's like when you guys were going crazy over that poll that had 10% more democrats than republicans and then saying "WOW GILLEPSIE IS GOING TO GET OWNED".


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 12:16:44 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 17, 2017, 12:17:58 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on October 17, 2017, 12:18:54 PM
It’s a tight race, folks. Did we expect something else?

Hell a one day average of today’s polls is Northam +3. That seems reasonable to me.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 12:22:04 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 17, 2017, 12:23:00 PM
It’s a tight race, folks. Did we expect something else?

Hell a one day average of today’s polls is Northam +3. That seems reasonable to me.

Exactly.  There should be some spread among polls.  If Northam is ahead by a few points, then any result from a narrow Gillespie lead to a high-single-digit lead is a reasonable poll result.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 17, 2017, 12:23:06 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 17, 2017, 12:23:41 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

I have no idea what the polls were like in 2006 / 2013 / 2014 (crosstabs wise), but I'm telling you, the demographics polled in this sample are not representative of Virginia. Look at the crosstabs. 28% Dem - 30% Repub - 43% independent. Virginia in 2016 was 40% dem - 33% repub - 24% independent. If Virginia changed so drastically in 1 year, there'd be news stories about people changing their party from dem/repub to independent.

I could poll 100% republicans in California and get like a 90 - 10 result in a given race for the republicans. But that wouldn't be very useful.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 12:26:56 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 17, 2017, 12:45:41 PM
That's my Monmouth!

I get that it's only one poll though. The good thing about three polls being released today, though, is that it gets that stupid Washington Post Poll out of the 5 poll average. The 5-poll average is now Northam +4.2 . I still think this is Lean Northam, but I'll move it back to Toss-Up if the average goes below Northam +3.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on October 17, 2017, 12:50:54 PM
If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 12:52:37 PM
If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.
What has Gillespie done to get racists excited?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on October 17, 2017, 12:58:17 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

No they don't you ignoramous.
I know in off year election many can expect AA voters turnout to drop this polls show they make up 16% of the vote down from 20% in 2013 and more in line with 2009. Considering that Fairfax is on the ticket and Trump feud with NFL, Obama, and Charlottesville I doubt it will be that low. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: uti2 on October 17, 2017, 12:58:59 PM
If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.

I made a thread about this topic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275102.0

Gillespie is not running a campaign based on the principles of the GOP autospy, he's basically doing what Cruz would've done.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 17, 2017, 01:02:12 PM
If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.
What has Gillespie done to get racists excited?


The MS-13 stuff can be viewed as racist.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 17, 2017, 01:03:13 PM
Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 01:05:11 PM
Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.
Don't worry you will probably gain New Jersey and the Washington state senate as well so a net gain of 1


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 17, 2017, 01:06:34 PM
Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.
Don't worry you will probably gain New Jersey and the Washington state senate as well so a net gain of 1

A-huh


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 17, 2017, 01:09:30 PM
49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 17, 2017, 01:09:49 PM
Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 17, 2017, 01:10:22 PM
49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 17, 2017, 01:11:41 PM
49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 17, 2017, 01:14:03 PM
49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 17, 2017, 01:17:37 PM
Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 17, 2017, 01:17:47 PM
Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

That's not how I interpreted his post. The point I thought he was trying to make was that the actual primary electorate was so far in the other direction that it makes this poll too unreliable. Their sample envisioned an unlikely electorate, given the primary turnout and the differences in voter enthusiasm since Trump took office.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 01:18:17 PM
49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 17, 2017, 01:22:21 PM
Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 

Outside of particularly egregious cases, I don't rescind endorsements based solely on problematic ad tactics. For every GOP ad that could be viewed as unethical, there is a DEM ad that could be viewed as unethical.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 17, 2017, 01:24:56 PM
Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 

Outside of particularly egregious cases, I don't rescind endorsements based solely on problematic ad tactics. For every GOP ad that could be viewed as unethical, there is a DEM ad that could be viewed as unethical.

And Wulfric proves my point...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 17, 2017, 01:28:39 PM
Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

That's not how I interpreted his post. The point I thought he was trying to make was that the actual primary electorate was so far in the other direction that it makes this poll too unreliable. Their sample envisioned an unlikely electorate, given the primary turnout and the differences in voter enthusiasm since Trump took office.

Additionally, this poll has a 77% white crosstab. For comparison, the 2014 white share in VA was 70%. 2017 will quite clearly be a better environment for Democrats than 2014, and Virginia isn't getting any whiter.

Although yes, it is somewhat imperative that AA turnout not collapse for some reason, and I hope recent events combined with an Obama campaign event prevents that.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Nyvin on October 17, 2017, 01:31:40 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 01:41:39 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on October 17, 2017, 01:45:33 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.
This poll overestimate Republicans. Republicans will not outnumber Democrats voter share on election day.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on October 17, 2017, 01:55:45 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on October 17, 2017, 01:56:32 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 17, 2017, 01:58:15 PM
Alright I'm gonna offer my #HotTake.

The race appears to be tightening to an MOE race, but Northam still has a slight edge. Tossup/Tilt D, Northam should win, but Gillespie certainly has a chance


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on October 17, 2017, 02:03:02 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Nyvin on October 17, 2017, 02:04:24 PM
Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 ;)

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.

According to what?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 17, 2017, 02:06:16 PM
And Perriello lost to said boring loser after having the entire D.C. establishment + Bernie cult behind him ;D


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on October 17, 2017, 02:08:23 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on October 17, 2017, 02:13:40 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on October 17, 2017, 02:31:56 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2017, 02:44:16 PM
It'll be hard to spin if Democrats blow this one. I don't see that happening though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 02:53:13 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.
You do realize outside of Charlottesville Bernie campaigning for northam would hurt him right


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 03:06:18 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 17, 2017, 03:18:29 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skunk on October 17, 2017, 03:20:00 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F-lYM1YzBs


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on October 17, 2017, 03:24:02 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

Oh, but it can my dear friend.

In a multiparty system, the "Sanders Wing" and the "Clinton Wing" could go their separate ways as different parties while forming a center-left coalition. However, since we have two major, big-tent parties, both wings will continue to have catfights every election as they play the blame game every primary and general election. This will continue until we see a "compromise candidate", which is one that I believe does not exist at the moment.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 03:44:09 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 17, 2017, 03:53:02 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on October 17, 2017, 04:01:09 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


That's actually not true about every poll being closer today ... Northam's lead went up from +4 to +6 in the Roanoke Collage poll today


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 04:02:08 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on October 17, 2017, 04:09:08 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 04:15:24 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.



And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html#polls Only 1 poll with Johnson up


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on October 17, 2017, 04:21:08 PM
Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.



And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html#polls Only 1 poll with Johnson up

Do a little more research an you will find that 3 survey monkey polls leading up to the election (which had the largest survey sample size and one of the smallest MOE) found Johnson up and an additional one or two found him tied. Links to each poll are available on the 2016 WI Senate Election Wikipage, and I believe though 538 (not sure if they are still there or not, but I checked and still available on wiki).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TML on October 17, 2017, 11:37:43 PM
At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 17, 2017, 11:49:53 PM
At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 18, 2017, 01:43:58 AM
At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

So basically like every remotely competitive Virginia race then? Hillary, Kaine, Obama won it pretty comfortably and even they trailed well into the night.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 18, 2017, 03:05:00 AM
At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

It's important to remember to totally tune out whatever the garbage statewide total is telling you for most of the night and just look at whatever's coming in from NoVA and Richmond/Henrico/Norfolk, until about 80% of the statewide total is in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on October 18, 2017, 10:14:08 AM
Welp.  (http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-campaign-flier-removes-picture-of-lg-candidate-justin-fairfax/article_c771cac2-7364-5b15-92ba-cce8ce0c604c.html)

()

So much for that black turnout.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 18, 2017, 10:25:22 AM
The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 18, 2017, 11:01:19 AM
The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.

Wait that flier is real?  I thought it was photoshopped?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2017, 11:06:00 AM
So... that new Quinnipic poll is quite a doozy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on October 18, 2017, 11:10:19 AM
Northam has a 14 point lead with independents?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2017, 11:19:54 AM
Should note that the method used for devising the sample is resulting in the big differences in the polls:

Quote
Ariel Edwards-Levy‏
Verified account
@aedwardslevy
Following

Are we entirely sure everyone is polling the same Virginia?

()

Quote
Nate Cohn‏
Verified account
@Nate_Cohn  7m

Nate Cohn Retweeted Ariel Edwards-Levy
It does seem that there's of an RDD v. RBS polling split unfolding in Virginia (counting Post as RDD, given weighting method)

Quote
Jennifer Agiesta‏
Verified account
@jennagiesta
Follow

On VA: Polls adjusted to past demos from either exits or voter files have a tighter race, those that aren't have a big ol' lead for Northam.

Quote
Jennifer Agiesta‏
Verified account
@jennagiesta  6m

Replying to @jennagiesta
So, does turnout look like last time, or not?

Quote
Jennifer Agiesta‏
Verified account
@jennagiesta  5m

Or you could just ignore all that and average it and maybe miss what the polls are actually telling us.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 18, 2017, 11:21:08 AM
I think that poll is wrong and I'm going with the majority of polls that show the race is close, Gillespie is not leading though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2017, 11:29:30 AM
I think that poll is wrong and I'm going with the majority of polls that show the race is close, Gillespie is not leading though.

It will be amusing if after all these divergent polls, the actual result is close to the poll average.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2017, 11:33:38 AM
The real way to settle this: Monmouth plays basketball at Quinnipiac on Dec. 28. :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 18, 2017, 11:53:30 AM
The real way to settle this: Monmouth plays basketball at Quinnipiac on Dec. 28. :)

Go Monmouth


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2017, 05:12:11 PM
Fox News poll:

Northam (D)  49%
Gillespie (R)   42
Hyra (L)          1

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/920772824834412545 (https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/920772824834412545)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 18, 2017, 05:15:16 PM
Fox News poll:

Northam (D)  49%
Gillespie (R)   42
Hyra (L)          1

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/920772824834412545 (https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/920772824834412545)

FF polls today.

Likely R > Safe D > Titanium D in less than 24 hours.

#Atlas


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2017, 05:21:04 PM
Quote
The man who rallied Southwest Virginia to vote for Donald Trump last year quit Republican Ed Gillespie’s gubernatorial campaign this week, offended by a personal snub and exasperated by the campaign’s highly cautious stance toward the president, according to three Republicans familiar with his decision.

Jack Morgan’s departure follows a half-empty Gillespie rally headlined by Vice President Pence on Saturday in Southwest Virginia, a coal country region that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in November.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/trump-strategist-quits-gillespie-campaign-for-va-governor-sources-say/2017/10/18/02cb5a5e-b409-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 18, 2017, 06:46:04 PM
Dems worried about black disengagement, particularly those under 40. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/us/politics/obama-campaign-trail-virginia-new-jersey-alabama.html?smid=tw-share)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 18, 2017, 06:51:32 PM
Dems worried about black disengagement, particularly those under 40. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/us/politics/obama-campaign-trail-virginia-new-jersey-alabama.html?smid=tw-share)

Great News for Gillespie, though ideally blacks would come out and actually vote for Gillespie rather than abstaining.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2017, 07:09:44 PM
Quote
Average VA-Gov poll with end dates in October is Northam +7... Range is Gillespie +1 to Northam +14. Perfectly natural distribution.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/920775619536924672


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on October 18, 2017, 09:07:09 PM
Dems worried about black disengagement, particularly those under 40. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/us/politics/obama-campaign-trail-virginia-new-jersey-alabama.html?smid=tw-share)

Great News for Gillespie, though ideally blacks would come out and actually vote for Gillespie rather than abstaining.

Why would they ever?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 18, 2017, 09:13:15 PM
Wait, Wulfric supports Gillespie? That's fucking gold.

Endorsed him months ago :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 18, 2017, 09:25:18 PM
The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.

Wait that flier is real?  I thought it was photoshopped?

It's real, sadly enough. You can thank the Laborers’ International Union of North America for their infinite wisdom. Maybe Northam can disavow.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on October 18, 2017, 10:24:30 PM
Welp.  (http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-campaign-flier-removes-picture-of-lg-candidate-justin-fairfax/article_c771cac2-7364-5b15-92ba-cce8ce0c604c.html)

()

So much for that black turnout.
Fake news. He was left off literature for canvassers of an organization that did not endorse him because of a policy position. They were still provided with literature about the entire ticket.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2017, 01:12:11 AM
Over on the house of delegates side, Sabato has released a map of the competitive seats:

()

()

The Safe R seats are 47 in number, and the Safe D seats are 31 in number. Thus, 22 seats are competitive. The dems are clearly on a narrow path in terms of taking back the HoD, but it's not impossible.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Heisenberg on October 19, 2017, 04:28:40 AM
LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 19, 2017, 06:48:19 AM
Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 19, 2017, 09:42:14 AM
NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:

()


Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/obama-returns-campaign-trail-n812206)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2017, 10:00:02 AM
LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 19, 2017, 10:12:31 AM
LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2017, 10:14:34 AM
LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

I see that now. Mixed up that and 32, LOL.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 19, 2017, 10:49:47 AM
LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

I see that now. Mixed up that and 32, LOL.

Easy mistake.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 19, 2017, 10:52:39 AM
Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.

()

I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: windjammer on October 19, 2017, 10:56:27 AM
Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.

()

I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.
Link?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 19, 2017, 11:17:15 AM
I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.
Link?

You can find them here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/author/milescoleman/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on October 19, 2017, 11:27:24 AM
Over on the house of delegates side, Sabato has released a map of the competitive seats:

()

()

The Safe R seats are 47 in number, and the Safe D seats are 31 in number. Thus, 22 seats are competitive. The dems are clearly on a narrow path in terms of taking back the HoD, but it's not impossible.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/

I'm surprised the 34th District is competitive this year? What happened there. I know that Kathleen Murphy beat Craig Parisot twice by the skin of her teeth, but I would have expected her seat to be a bit more safe since then.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2017, 11:38:00 AM
^ It's marked as competitive based on the close result last time.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 19, 2017, 11:41:19 AM
And here is Cooks analysis from a few weeks ago.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/why-virginias-delegate-races-could-be-most-telling-2017-elections

Overall, I think it goes Sabato -> Cook -> DDHQ in the projections from fewest to greatest amount of expected gains. Sabato seems to be leaning towards 6-7, Cook 7-8, DDHQ 8-10.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 19, 2017, 12:04:12 PM
Billionaire Jeff Greene is still said to be considering a run for FL-GOV, he ran for Senate in 2010 and lost the primary to Kendrick Meek. I am not impressed with Gwen Graham, her fundraising has been weak and she does not seem to be an inspiring candidate. FL is an incredibly expensive state to run in so having a self funder might not be so bad. Levine is also independently wealthy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 19, 2017, 12:26:55 PM
Billionaire Jeff Greene is still said to be considering a run for FL-GOV, he ran for Senate in 2010 and lost the primary to Kendrick Meek. I am not impressed with Gwen Graham, her fundraising has been weak and she does not seem to be an inspiring candidate. FL is an incredibly expensive state to run in so having a self funder might not be so bad. Levine is also independently wealthy.

Wrong thread.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2017, 01:20:48 PM
So, totaling up the seats that are universally agreed to be Safe for the incumbent party, we have 41 Safe R seats and 31 Safe D seats. 51 seats are needed for a majority.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 19, 2017, 02:57:23 PM
NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:

()


Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/obama-returns-campaign-trail-n812206)

Pretty accurate analysis. Which is why a loss would be an unspinnable disaster for the Dems.

They forgot that the current Dem governor is also popular.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on October 19, 2017, 03:00:27 PM
NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:

()


Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/obama-returns-campaign-trail-n812206)

Pretty accurate analysis. Which is why a loss would be an unspinnable disaster for the Dems.

Honestly, Democrats seem to be great at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as of late.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frodo on October 19, 2017, 03:24:08 PM
And -at the moment- no one is under FBI investigation.  :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 19, 2017, 04:47:58 PM
Video of blocks-long line for the Northam-Obama rally in Richmond: https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/921114486706266113 (https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/921114486706266113)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 19, 2017, 09:53:00 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 19, 2017, 10:32:51 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

Will you still use it after Northam wins? It can be like soooo ironic


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Lord Admirale on October 19, 2017, 10:49:51 PM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.
Guadagno is coming somewhat close to Phil Murphy, guess she’s gonna win!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 20, 2017, 04:55:05 AM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.
Guadagno is coming somewhat close to Phil Murphy, guess she’s gonna win!

It would be pretty hilarious if that happened honestly. The Democratic Party would basically need to disband at that point, lol.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 20, 2017, 08:52:50 AM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 20, 2017, 09:21:45 AM

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!


Tillis was always within striking distance and had a bunch of tied polls. He was quite clearly carried in by the wave.

Warner's lead was indeed inflated and as expected, undecideds in VA broke toward Gillespie, just at an astounding magnitude. Also there hardly any polls towards the end.

I'll admit there's very little justification I can come up with Feingold's incredibly low-energy performance causing him to lose to a ghoul like Johnson and underperform HRC by 3%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on October 20, 2017, 11:20:21 AM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!


Between the end of September and the election Tillis lead in 6 polls and tied in 6.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 20, 2017, 11:50:21 AM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!


Between the end of September and the election Tillis lead in 6 polls and tied in 6.

Really? I only remember polls that had Hagan very narrowly ahead the entire way.

I guess I  "auto-junk polled" lots of those tillis leads back a lot back then.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on October 20, 2017, 11:55:48 AM
Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!


Between the end of September and the election Tillis lead in 6 polls and tied in 6.

Really? I only remember polls that had Hagan very narrowly ahead the entire way.

I guess I  "auto-junk polled" lots of those tillis leads back a lot back then.

Yep, he lead in polls from Harper, High Point U, SUSA, Civitas, Gracie, and Vox. He tied in a bunch of others.

And Johnson in WI lead in 3 or 4 polls from Survey Monkey and 1 from Lorras.

If there's anything I've learned from these is that any poll has the potential to be right lol


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: cvparty on October 20, 2017, 05:05:37 PM
kinda want gillespie to win to see the atlas meltdowns lmao


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on October 20, 2017, 05:07:25 PM
kinda want gillespie to win to see the atlas meltdowns lmao

Modern conservatism in a nutshell.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 20, 2017, 08:39:35 PM
kinda want gillespie to win to see the atlas meltdowns lmao

2016 didn't give you enough schadenfreude?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 22, 2017, 02:17:42 PM
Northam is in a very strong position - expect Gillespie to moderate now that he has secured the base / Bannon / Trump and Stewart is being pressured to endorse him, and expect this strategy to fail. Fairfax and Prince William will bury Gillespie, though I think he will do alright in the Hampton Roads area.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Cactus Jack on October 22, 2017, 02:41:14 PM
You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

You're a fine one to talk about boring losers.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 23, 2017, 07:51:54 AM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 23, 2017, 07:55:32 AM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 23, 2017, 08:00:06 AM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

Found the video ad of the radio one I heard this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10NdvbPVaE8

Typical consultant maneuver that all of his videos have comments disabled.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 23, 2017, 11:41:33 AM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

Found the video ad of the radio one I heard this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10NdvbPVaE8

Typical consultant maneuver that all of his videos have comments disabled.

Disabling comments is pretty standard protocol for all campaign ads.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 23, 2017, 11:45:38 AM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

Found the video ad of the radio one I heard this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10NdvbPVaE8

Typical consultant maneuver that all of his videos have comments disabled.

Disabling comments is pretty standard protocol for all campaign ads.

Not for Northam's Campaign

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDonPK5bJoM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPSUw92M-L0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGgh9tBeNZo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlIE_X3vZag


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 23, 2017, 12:50:53 PM
Apparently there's low enthusiasm for Gillespie in rural/SWVA. (https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/10/in-virginias-trump-country-low-enthusiasm-for-republican/slide/1/)

Obviously Gillespie needs them to turn out in high numbers on election day.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on October 23, 2017, 01:47:36 PM
Apparently there's low enthusiasm for Gillespie in rural/SWVA. (https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/10/in-virginias-trump-country-low-enthusiasm-for-republican/slide/1/)

Obviously Gillespie needs them to turn out in high numbers on election day.

The “wearing a coal miners hat” money quote does more to underline our identity-obsessed politics than anything else I’ve seen in a while


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 23, 2017, 01:49:31 PM
A Trump rally wouldn't help Gllespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 23, 2017, 02:05:13 PM

Agreed, would loose 3-5% in NoVa.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 23, 2017, 02:22:43 PM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

I'd argue his move back to the center is really the problem here.

There's a reason Da' C*&ch kept it close as he did against T-Mac, who wasn't asleep at the wheel like Warner was back in 2014.

But yeah, the muddled mess means now he's not gonna impress either side.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 23, 2017, 03:39:26 PM
Apparently there's low enthusiasm for Gillespie in rural/SWVA. (https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/10/in-virginias-trump-country-low-enthusiasm-for-republican/slide/1/)

Obviously Gillespie needs them to turn out in high numbers on election day.

The “wearing a coal miners hat” money quote does more to underline our identity-obsessed politics than anything else I’ve seen in a while

b-b-b-but I thought it was the Democrats obsessed with identity politics! Not muh sweet precious Appalachian miners!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 23, 2017, 04:38:35 PM
Gillespie now hitting Northam on felon voting rights and along with MS-13 Northam supports child molesters too.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on October 23, 2017, 04:42:51 PM
Gillespie now hitting Northam on felon voting rights and along with MS-13 Northam supports child molesters too.

If you have to resort to accusing your opponent of supporting child molesters, your campaign clearly isn't going too well.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on October 23, 2017, 04:48:59 PM
Gillespie now hitting Northam on felon voting rights and along with MS-13 Northam supports child molesters too.

If you have to resort to accusing your opponent of supporting child molesters, your campaign clearly isn't going too well.

Especially when your opponent is a pediatrician...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 23, 2017, 05:12:28 PM
Gillespie now hitting Northam on felon voting rights and along with MS-13 Northam supports child molesters too.

Gillespie is a complete disgrace.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 23, 2017, 05:29:23 PM
If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 23, 2017, 05:46:15 PM
If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

ALL ATLAS MEMBERS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO START "WULFRIC SUPPORTS CHILD MOLESTERS" THREADS

Whatever. If Northam ran an ad calling Gllespie a rapist none of you would criticize it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 23, 2017, 06:05:44 PM
If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

This kind of thinking in political campaigns is part of the reason so many people hate politicians and elections.

Shame!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 23, 2017, 07:17:53 PM
If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

ALL ATLAS MEMBERS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO START "WULFRIC SUPPORTS CHILD MOLESTERS" THREADS

Whatever. If Northam ran an ad calling Gllespie a rapist none of you would criticize it.

Just because you let your widdle feeling weelings get hurtsies so easily, does not make throwing around trash the correct response :(. Yes I know I'm being a hypocrite here. Fwiw, as a strong dem, I would not support a candidate (including Northam) if they did that. But, the odds are quite low that this happens, none the less, I don't condone it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 23, 2017, 10:35:50 PM
Here's the thing about Trumpism. It's bigger than just Trump, and Trump cannot guide where it goes and how it works. He couldn't use it to help Strange, and he can't use it to help out Gillespie. It is a wild force that can be utilized by certain people under the proper conditions, but not controlled or shaped by the individual.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2017, 12:04:16 AM
^ There's a reason for that. It's not as if Trump went around hypnotizing people into blindly following whatever he says. Instead, he tapped into a constituency that had existed during the Obama years, but had been ignored by the republican establishment because they felt their path to victory was winning back the suburbs that voted for Bush in 2004, and had thus stayed home or even voted Democrat in disgust. Trump went after it because it perfectly reflects his views on key issues such as immigration and trade, and they don't reject him because of his gaffes and scandals because they don't agree that such things are gaffes/scandals. But it doesn't mean that Trump has some sort of Kim Jong Un-like worship where he can never be wrong - his base has shown itself to be ready and willing to show him when they believe he is wrong. They did it in Alabama by rejecting Luther Strange, and they may do it in Virginia by staying home or voting Hyra.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2017, 12:20:29 PM
If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

This kind of thinking in political campaigns is part of the reason so many people hate politicians and elections.

Shame!
Wulfric has no shame. At least that's coupled with a complete lack of self awareness.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on October 24, 2017, 12:31:20 PM
Dreading on people's fantasy endorsements is silly (especially in the case of Wulfric as it just encourages him), but can someone please explain to me why Wulfric supports Gillespie? Northam is the personification of the ever-glorified centrist Democrat - I mean the guy almost joined the GOP in 2009 while in office for Christ's sake - while Gillespie is a Trump/Stewart-appeasing right-winger.

Because the only thing Wulfric likes more than Moderate Heroes is curtailing women’s rights.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 24, 2017, 12:36:36 PM
Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Both parties lie about each other all the time. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But if anyone really thinks making an Olympic long jump of a logical leap and then labeling your opponent something outrageous is remotely out of the mainstream, well, news flash, it isn't and it is done constantly by both sides.

Just some people are dumb enough to believe it / support it when it comes from a campaign or candidate they agree with.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 24, 2017, 12:46:39 PM
Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!

Not to mention that a candidate for governor should probably be held to a higher standard than random posters on uselectionatlas.org, but hey, we're in the era of Trump now. Anything goes!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2017, 12:48:24 PM
There's several reasons I support Gillespie.

Northam is too liberal on Climate/Energy Issues

Quote
Ralph has long opposed offshore drilling in Virginia and in 2016, helped lead the resistance to Virginia’s involvement in federal oil and gas exploration off the Atlantic coast.

Quote
Ralph will support localities to regulate or ban fracking and will ensure a thorough permitting process for the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley Pipeline as permitted under state and federal law. Ralph opposes lifting the 35 year ban on uranium mining and will stick with Virginia’s Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) pollution diet and increase oyster, wetland, and shoreline restoration projects.

His supposed support for rural Virginia is revealed for the sham it is when a fairly superficial read through his website makes it clear that he is anti-coal.

Northam is too liberal on Guns

He has indicated support for not only an assault weapons ban, but also limits on size of gun clips, and likely would support a limit on size of gun magazines as well.

Northam is too liberal on Abortion

I think his 100% rating with Planned Parenthood and NARAL speaks for itself here.

While Gillespie has dabbed in Trumpism, he is still an establishment republican and his win would still show that non-Trumpist Rs can win in key states

Going to be perfectly honest here, I just really want to see a Republican win Virginia one last time before it joins the solid D northeast


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 24, 2017, 12:50:26 PM
Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

I'd argue his move back to the center is really the problem here.

There's a reason Da' C*&ch kept it close as he did against T-Mac, who wasn't asleep at the wheel like Warner was back in 2014.

But yeah, the muddled mess means now he's not gonna impress either side.

Cooch was a true believer with a record that matched his rhetoric and didn't suddenly discover the right-wing of his party after almost losing a primary.   And T-Mac was widely disliked.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 24, 2017, 12:56:42 PM
Doesn't the fact that Gillespie is getting this desperate lend more credence to the polls showing a modest to big Northam lead as opposed to the ones showing a razor thin race? I'm not sure why you'd make such a huge gamble if it really was neck and neck.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 24, 2017, 12:58:21 PM
Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!
Keep drinking the kool aid fam lol

Every political candidate from both major parties have pulled this bullsh**t continuously for centuries. The fact that you keep believing them is why.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 24, 2017, 01:02:14 PM
Somewhat unrelated, but UncleSam, aren't you the guy who said Laura Ingraham was a Virgin Mary-like figure to Appalachian voters or something? Do you still believe this?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 24, 2017, 01:04:38 PM
Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!

Not to mention that a candidate for governor should probably be held to a higher standard than random posters on uselectionatlas.org, but hey, we're in the era of Trump now. Anything goes!
It was the Hillary Clinton campaign for president and the NY Times who were the biggest proponents of this line of attack

Either way I think liberals massively underestimate just how unlikeable being snarky, reactionary, and void of critical thought in their responses makes them to most people.

Try to understand what someone is saying before snap responding and you'll get a much broader (and more cynical) perspective on the world. Hillary Clinton lied, Donald Trump lied, Ed Gillespie is lying and Northam is too. Trusting politicians on conveniently-timed slander is just perpetuating its' usefulness.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 24, 2017, 01:06:59 PM
There's several reasons I support Gillespie.

Northam is too liberal on Climate/Energy Issues

Quote
Ralph has long opposed offshore drilling in Virginia and in 2016, helped lead the resistance to Virginia’s involvement in federal oil and gas exploration off the Atlantic coast.

Quote
Ralph will support localities to regulate or ban fracking and will ensure a thorough permitting process for the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley Pipeline as permitted under state and federal law. Ralph opposes lifting the 35 year ban on uranium mining and will stick with Virginia’s Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) pollution diet and increase oyster, wetland, and shoreline restoration projects.

His supposed support for rural Virginia is revealed for the sham it is when a fairly superficial read through his website makes it clear that he is anti-coal.

Northam is too liberal on Guns

He has indicated support for not only an assault weapons ban, but also limits on size of gun clips, and likely would support a limit on size of gun magazines as well.

Northam is too liberal on Abortion

I think his 100% rating with Planned Parenthood and NARAL speaks for itself here.

While Gillespie has dabbed in Trumpism, he is still an establishment republican and his win would still show that non-Trumpist Rs can win in key states

Going to be perfectly honest here, I just really want to see a Republican win Virginia one last time before it joins the solid D northeast


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 24, 2017, 01:07:36 PM
Somewhat unrelated, but UncleSam, aren't you the guy who said Laura Ingraham was a Virgin Mary-like figure to Appalachian voters or something? Do you still believe this?
That seems fairly reasonable, hard core right wingers love her in a way that defies logic (as in most things they love). I don't see why things would be any different now, unless you're referring to some event or poll I am unfamiliar with.

Doesn't mean she'd have a chance statewide though.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 24, 2017, 01:09:01 PM
What exactly has Northam uh, lied about with regard to Enron Ed Gillespie? Like I said in a different thread, false equivalencies are powerful weapon deployed by closeted Republicans such as yourself.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 24, 2017, 01:12:22 PM
Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!
Keep drinking the kool aid fam lol

Every political candidate from both major parties have pulled this bullsh**t continuously for centuries. The fact that you keep believing them is why.

I mean there are over a million links to the video where Trump admits to sexual assault. Maybe you missed it?
Because men with inflated and fragile egos have never claimed to be more 'machismo' and sexually successful than they actually are to other dudes with similarly fragile egos and zero respect for women.

Seriously lol if you think that's anywhere close to an 'admission' of anything then idk it just points toward cognitive dissonance with respect to Trump's mental fragility. I'm not saying I know what happened or that he is innocent / not a piece of sh**t regardless, I'm saying it's not a tenable or logically consistent position to assume that Trump wasn't full of sh**t on this point but is all the other times he speaks.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on October 24, 2017, 01:13:11 PM
Great new Northam ad targeting rural areas
https://twitter.com/ralphnortham/status/922829230282543104


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 24, 2017, 01:23:03 PM
What exactly has Northam uh, lied about with regard to Enron Ed Gillespie? Like I said in a different thread, false equivalencies are powerful weapon deployed by closeted Republicans such as yourself.
Two points in response
1. Northam's assertion that Ed Gillespie is associated with Enron in any meaningful way is every bit as spurious (if less bombastic) as Gillespie's claim that Northam 'supports' child molesters. Northam supports voting rights for felons, which in some cases are child molesters. Gillespie lobbied for Enron fifteen years ago and before Enron did anything illicit. Both are logical jumps and effectively straight bullsh**t, even if technically both are 'true', whatever that means anymore.
2. Why would I feel any need to be a 'closeted Republican' lol, we are on an anonymous political website meant for expressing your thoughts freely. This sort of group think and 'purge' mentality is blitheringly stupid when the reality is that most people hold beliefs consistent with both major parties, depending on the topic.

In any case, this discussion has veered generally away from the topic at hand (the VA Governor's race), so I'll stop responding to baseless assertions vaguely attacking my ideological purity or ability to read.

And yes, these recent ads show strong hints that Gillespie views himself as a heavy underdog presently. Expect him to either go all out on SW Virginia by calling in Trump or all-out on NOVA with transportation focus on the last few weeks. Northam needs to simply put forth a generic positive vision for Virginia with some transportation and health care specifics and he should coast to a small but significant win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 24, 2017, 01:26:01 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/northam-touts-212k-weekend-door-knocks-in-virginia--while-dnc-was-fretting-about-race/2017/10/23/a4627eae-b82a-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

Quote
Organizers and volunteers for Northam said they knocked on 212,000 doors three weekends out from Election Day. That’s a jump from about 143,000 doors knocked at a similar point in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign in Virginia, and 87,000 doors knocked during Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 campaign.

Quote
Northam’s Republican opponent Ed Gillespie counters that canvassers knocked on nearly a quarter million doors over the weekend and more than 2.5 million since its outreach effort began in earnest, according to spokesman David Abrams. He declined to say whether homes visited multiple time were included in that tally, which prevents a direct comparison to Northam.

For Northam, as the article states, this doesn't include the canvassing/GOTV ops of outside groups.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2017, 01:29:13 PM
Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2017, 01:31:01 PM
Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 24, 2017, 01:32:29 PM
1. Northam's assertion that Ed Gillespie is associated with Enron in any meaningful way is every bit as spurious (if less bombastic) as Gillespie's claim that Northam 'supports' child molesters. Northam supports voting rights for felons, which in some cases are child molesters. Gillespie lobbied for Enron fifteen years ago and before Enron did anything illicit. Both are logical jumps and effectively straight bullsh**t, even if technically both are 'true', whatever that means anymore.

Yeah no, the facts don't back this one up. Enron was engaging in various frauds that centered around cooking their books before Quinn Gillespie & Associates picked them up as a client in 2001. Gillespie's website hilariously talks about this issue (https://edforvirginia.com/facts/facts-ed-gillespie-enron/), basically saying "but everyone thought Enron was soo good before they got caught!".


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED on October 24, 2017, 05:09:30 PM
Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

If Trump decided to do a couple rallies in SW Virginia would that help Gillespie?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2017, 06:04:18 PM
Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

If Trump decided to do a couple rallies in SW Virginia would that help Gillespie?

I the SW sure, but it would probably have a possible equal negative effect in NoVa.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2017, 09:20:07 PM
Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!
Keep drinking the kool aid fam lol

Every political candidate from both major parties have pulled this bullsh**t continuously for centuries. The fact that you keep believing them is why.

I mean there are over a million links to the video where Trump admits to sexual assault. Maybe you missed it?
Because men with inflated and fragile egos have never claimed to be more 'machismo' and sexually successful than they actually are to other dudes with similarly fragile egos and zero respect for women.

Seriously lol if you think that's anywhere close to an 'admission' of anything then idk it just points toward cognitive dissonance with respect to Trump's mental fragility. I'm not saying I know what happened or that he is innocent / not a piece of sh**t regardless, I'm saying it's not a tenable or logically consistent position to assume that Trump wasn't full of sh**t on this point but is all the other times he speaks.
At best, he clearly doesn't respect women. At worst, he's committed some very awful acts.

Like all things Trump, I say we take him at his word.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 24, 2017, 10:41:49 PM
Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

If Trump decided to do a couple rallies in SW Virginia would that help Gillespie?

How did it work out for Strange with that Huntsville rally again?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on October 24, 2017, 11:34:38 PM
Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

If Trump decided to do a couple rallies in SW Virginia would that help Gillespie?

How did it work out for Strange with that Huntsville rally again?
not the same, although its a bad idea for different reasons.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 25, 2017, 09:08:16 AM
National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/659783?unlock=CA224AWO0XICVXEI)

Haha.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on October 25, 2017, 09:24:34 AM
National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/659783?unlock=CA224AWO0XICVXEI)

Haha.

God forbid we have a big tent for all the people fleeing the dumpster fire of the GOP


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 25, 2017, 09:42:53 AM
National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/659783?unlock=CA224AWO0XICVXEI)

Haha.

Even though there was an article the other day how Northam is to the left of many in the party on Education.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BundouYMB on October 25, 2017, 10:06:36 AM
"Revival"? Moderates run the party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 25, 2017, 10:08:43 AM
"Revival"? Moderates run the party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on October 25, 2017, 12:52:14 PM
If moderates ran the party, they would let ProLife democrats speak at conventions.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 25, 2017, 02:38:13 PM

This.

And even if this were true, I don't recall the victory of Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker doing this for the GOP.

I don't recall it that way Bob McDonnell either, actually he veered rightwards


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 25, 2017, 02:40:15 PM

This.

And even if this were true, I don't recall the victory of Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker doing this for the GOP.

I don't recall it that way Bob McDonnell either, actually he veered rightwards

Or Pat McCrory.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 25, 2017, 03:30:20 PM
Quote
Tom Bonier‏
Verified account
@tbonier  3h

Seeing an uptick in the modeled Dem advantage in absentee vote turnout in VA. Better than '13, but not massively so. Same caveats apply.

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on October 25, 2017, 03:46:11 PM
"Revival"? Moderates run the party.

If moderates ran the party you wouldn’t be seeing democrats in mass supporting a raging loon like Комрадь Берний Сэндерзь


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on October 25, 2017, 04:22:35 PM
"Revival"? Moderates run the party.

If moderates ran the party you wouldn’t be seeing democrats in mass supporting a raging loon like Комрадь Берний Сэндерзь

Moderates running the party has nothing to do with the base supporting Sanders.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 25, 2017, 04:25:19 PM
National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/659783?unlock=CA224AWO0XICVXEI)

Haha.

Is this peak Josh Kraushaar?

And even if this were true, I don't recall the victory of Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker doing this for the GOP.

National Journal, 2019: Trump could face serious primary opposition from the Phil Scott-wing of the GOP.

Not even the worst take he had this week. The other day he said it was up to dems to moderate to bring in nevertrumpers.

I mean what an arrogant statement. Your party got taking over by crazy people, so it is up to Dems to give into your demands.

Like GTFO.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 25, 2017, 04:39:13 PM
I do like the idea that Democratic voters are suddenly going to drop their support for Medicare for All and the like solely because a centrist won an election somewhere.

Yeah, it is bull**** concern trolling from a GOP hack.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 25, 2017, 04:54:30 PM
Presented for what it's worth (which I think is not much, given the number of undecided):

Hampton U, Oct 18-22, 750 RV (http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Nationally-Recognized-Hampton-University-Poll-Places-Gillespie-in-Gubernatorial-Lead-in-Virginia)

Gillespie (R) 41%
Northam (D) 33%
Don't know/Refused 27%

They also have Trump approval at 39/56.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 25, 2017, 05:05:11 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gun-control-group-everytown-pours-another-700k-into-virginia-elections/2017/10/23/4e7a07b8-b781-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html

Quote
Two progressive groups that have been spending big to elect Democrat Ralph Northam as Virginia’s next governor announced Monday they would ramp up their spending with just two weeks until Election Day.

The Virginia League of Conservation Voters’ political arm is pouring an aditional $1.1 million to support Democratic candidates, bringing its total spending this year to more than $3 million.

Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund, the political arm of one of the nation’s largest gun control groups, is donating an additional $400,000 to Northam, $300,000 to Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring’s re-election bid and $100,000 to Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Justin Fairfax.

That comes on top of an earlier $1 million dollar commitment from the organization bankrolled by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Quote
The Virginia League of Conservation Voters PAC is giving an additional $392,000 directly to Northam’s campaign, spending an additional $356,000 on its field operations and canvassing program and doubling its $250,000 digital advertising efforts. The group is also sending $100,000 to Democratic House of Delegate candidates.

I wish they would spend less on mailers. I don't think those are worth the money, at least if there is any chance most of their targeted voters have gotten one already. Better to plow that money into other GOTV efforts.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on October 25, 2017, 08:33:51 PM
T I T A N I U M

R


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 25, 2017, 10:31:49 PM
Gillespie out with another statues ad 'I'll keep 'em up' he says, I'm surprised he didn't sport a Southern accent when saying it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 26, 2017, 04:35:03 PM
() (https://ibb.co/fKHs0m)
() (https://ibb.co/efkefm)

Updated the Sabato map to include races only considered competitive by DDHQ/Cook. This is what I'll be using for reference on election night.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 27, 2017, 09:19:02 AM
Wason Center Tracking poll, Oct 27 (http://wset.com/news/local/poll-northam-has-7-point-lead-over-gillespie-in-virginias-governor-race)

Northam (D) 50  (+2)
Gillespie (R) 43   (-1)
Hyra (L) 3 (nc)

Previous results from this poll:

Oct 17: Northam 48-44
Oct 9: Northam 49-42
Sep 25: Northam 47-41


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 27, 2017, 05:00:49 PM
From a senior adviser to Rand Paul:

Quote
So the last 3 ads by @EdWGillespie are: gangs, people getting their voting rights back, and monuments. The dog whistle is a little loud, Ed

https://twitter.com/dougstafford/status/923550483620548609


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 27, 2017, 05:55:54 PM
Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 27, 2017, 06:08:29 PM
Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

So whites are more inclined to vote for someone when it's pointed out that they're racist?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 27, 2017, 06:11:31 PM
It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2017, 06:17:42 PM
Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

Uh...hasn't Gillespie's entire campaign been identity politics? The double standard is insane. Pandering to resentful whites is no less identity politics than pandering to minorities.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 27, 2017, 08:35:09 PM
Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

Uh...hasn't Gillespie's entire campaign been identity politics? The double standard is insane. Pandering to resentful whites is no less identity politics than pandering to minorities.

Which is what I'm pointing out. He shouldn't have authorized that mailer and it will be seen as a low road tactic and cause him to lose votes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 27, 2017, 10:58:45 PM
New Gillespie ad lumps Northam with sex offenders. (http://wavy.com/2017/10/24/ad-in-virginia-governor-race-takes-aim-at-restoring-rights-for-felons/)

Dumb thing to go out on, Ed.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 27, 2017, 11:03:09 PM
New Gillespie ad lumps Northam with sex offenders. (http://wavy.com/2017/10/24/ad-in-virginia-governor-race-takes-aim-at-restoring-rights-for-felons/)

Dumb thing to go out on, Ed.

A "moderate" in today's Republican party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 27, 2017, 11:06:18 PM
It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on October 27, 2017, 11:34:19 PM
It's only identity politics when minorities do it. It's defending your heritage when whites do it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 28, 2017, 12:14:09 AM
New Gillespie ad lumps Northam with sex offenders. (http://wavy.com/2017/10/24/ad-in-virginia-governor-race-takes-aim-at-restoring-rights-for-felons/)

Dumb thing to go out on, Ed.

A "moderate" in today's Republican party.

Interestingly, there's another ad making the rounds which features a "mother" claiming she can't vote for Ralph Northam because he "made it easy for felons to get guns."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 28, 2017, 02:14:38 AM
Things are certainly looking up for Gillespie. Northam is at his smallest RCP average lead of the entire campaign - 2.8%. A simple average of the last 5 polls is either Northam +3.4 or Northam +3.6 depending on whether you skip over Hampton and Quinnipiac. All of these numbers are not good for Northam because they are not big enough to accommodate a polling error of ~4% too D, which is what we saw in 2013. The race stays in my Lean D column for now as I try not to issue a Toss-Up rating this close to the election. But if one of these averages slips below Northam +2 (meaning it cannot even withstand half of the 2013 error), it may merit a move to Lean R.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on October 28, 2017, 02:54:15 AM
I don't see the rationale behind moving a race to lean R if the Democrat has an average of +2.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 28, 2017, 03:19:53 AM
I don't see the rationale behind moving a race to lean R if the Democrat has an average of +2.

1. I expect that the polling averages will be off in favor of Gillespie, just as they were off in favor of Cuccinelli in 2013, though not sure exactly how much error will exist.

2. Late deciders broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016.

3. The trend in the last few polls of any race tends to be exacerbated on election day. So far, the late trend is against Northam, although I acknowledge that could change.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 28, 2017, 05:39:42 AM
While averaging is helpful, polling is so extreme in both directions right now that I'd say it's better to ignore the average and take a side.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 28, 2017, 08:12:37 AM
RCP put a partisan poll in their average? I thought they didn't as a rule? Of course they pick the one without the libertarian candidate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 28, 2017, 08:22:33 AM
The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 28, 2017, 09:09:58 AM
The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

If PW and Fairfax vote. Historically, gubernatorial turnout here is like 40%. VB, even as Northam's home base, is a conservative area. If downstate comes out and if turnout is diluted in NoVA, it will be a closer race than people think.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 28, 2017, 09:55:18 AM
The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

If PW and Fairfax vote. Historically, gubernatorial turnout here is like 40%. VB, even as Northam's home base, is a conservative area. If downstate comes out and if turnout is diluted in NoVA, it will be a closer race than people think.

I don't believe it will be closer than people/pollsters think. Dems have the wind at their back this cycle. Reps are running into it. It seems easy to see which group of candidates will come out on top. Still need proof? Look at the June primary results. 6 in 10 VA voters voted for a Democrat. A huge (even gigantic) lead, in summer. It will be at least this same margin in November. All of the Republicans are going down.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 28, 2017, 11:14:39 AM
What effect, if any, will there be on this race from the reported indictments in the Mueller investigation?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 28, 2017, 11:58:50 AM
What effect, if any, will there be on this race from the reported indictments in the Mueller investigation?

It's possible it could widen the enthusiasm gap. I'm not sure how many votes such an event would flip though, even if there is some of correlation between views of the president and downballot election choices. That effect is usually more prevalent in races that aren't as high-profile as the Governors race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 28, 2017, 12:37:46 PM
SEIU is canvassing PW right now. They just left a Northam-Fairfax-Herring door hanger on my door. It's pretty good in terms of print quality; hits hard on Medicaid expansion and livable wage on the back.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez on October 28, 2017, 02:49:59 PM
For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 28, 2017, 02:56:07 PM
For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.



No way on this.  Perriello would win by 10-15, probably with the highest turnout on record for an odd year.

Now they are stuck with another 2013/14 trying to squeeze just enough extra votes out of Fairfax with social issues.  IMO it will probably work and he still wins by 1-3, but it didn't need to be close when there is a GOP incumbent president with <40% approval.  Perriello would have made Trump's statewide approval % Gillespie's ceiling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 28, 2017, 03:13:55 PM
Perriello would win by 10-15, probably with the highest turnout on record for an odd year.


Uh, no, he probably wouldn't have. Perriello was supposed to be a lightning rod for liberal grassroots activism from across the left-wing spectrum, which was supposed to be part of his GE strength. But he was not able to deliver on that in the Democratic primary. Not anywhere close, actually, even when people like me were sweating like dogs thinking he had a formula for cracking Fairfax County.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 28, 2017, 03:17:09 PM
Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on October 28, 2017, 03:18:46 PM
For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.


Northam won fair and square win a large margin with higher than expected turnout. Gillespie barely got out of his primary and the party is not totally unified behind him. Plus his popularity is basically an extension of the Bushes not necessarily for his own accomplishment or statesmanship. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 28, 2017, 03:28:13 PM
Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).

if you take out the two wack polls with Gillespie up, Northam's lead is over 7 points. Those are the ones screwing the average. Hence, expecting Gillespie to outperform an average like that is ridiculous. I can't wait til this race is over so we can stop this stupid notion that only Republicans overperform averages in off years.

The Hampton poll with Gillespie+8 looks strange.  Nate Cohn has pointed out that the internal numbers in it don't add up, so I think it's reasonable to discount that one.  But if you throw out the other poll with a Gillespie lead, you should also throw out the Q poll with Northam +14, although I'd keep both of them.  They're probably just outliers, which do happen.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 28, 2017, 03:31:48 PM
About the Hampton poll: Just wait like 5 days before they come out with their final poll with Northam +5 to cover their ass. They did this in 2016 and they'll do it again.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 28, 2017, 03:37:57 PM
Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).

if you take out the two wack polls with Gillespie up, Northam's lead is over 7 points. Those are the ones screwing the average. Hence, expecting Gillespie to outperform an average like that is ridiculous. I can't wait til this race is over so we can stop this stupid notion that only Republicans overperform averages in off years.

You can take out Hampton, but if you do that, it's only fair that you take out Quinnipiac as well. The polls that show Gillespie +1-+2 are not really outlandish and should be part of any fair calculation, though of course it's fair to use "the polling company's" three-way numbers (Tie) instead of their two-way numbers (Gillespie +2), but even doing that keeps it within that Northam +2.75 to Northam +4 range in a five poll or six poll average.

About the Hampton poll: Just wait like 5 days before they come out with their final poll with Northam +5 to cover their ass. They did this in 2016 and they'll do it again.

If that happens, I will of course take that into account.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 28, 2017, 05:24:40 PM
Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/opinions/the-posts-endorsements-in-virginia/2017/10/28/be2ef512-bb52-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on October 28, 2017, 06:29:31 PM
Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/opinions/the-posts-endorsements-in-virginia/2017/10/28/be2ef512-bb52-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html)
How shocking.

Said no one.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 28, 2017, 06:57:14 PM
Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring  (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/opinions/the-posts-endorsements-in-virginia/2017/10/28/be2ef512-bb52-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html)
How shocking.

Said no one.

They endorsed Comstock last year


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 28, 2017, 07:00:43 PM
They didn't just endorse the Democratic ticket, they went after the Republicans:

()

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on October 28, 2017, 10:55:46 PM
For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with. 
The candidate who almost lost to an alt-right neo-Confederate extremist has more popularity? K.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 28, 2017, 11:58:30 PM
I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on October 29, 2017, 12:37:26 AM
I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.




Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Zioneer on October 29, 2017, 01:20:03 AM
I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.



Northam is probably one of the laziest gubernatorial campaigners in modern history. It's almost ridiculous how low energy he is, to use a Trumpian term.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 29, 2017, 01:31:09 AM
I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.



Northam is probably one of the laziest gubernatorial campaigners in modern history. It's almost ridiculous how low energy he is, to use a Trumpian term.

Can't tell if you're serious.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Zioneer on October 29, 2017, 01:32:11 AM
I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.



Northam is probably one of the laziest gubernatorial campaigners in modern history. It's almost ridiculous how low energy he is, to use a Trumpian term.

Can't tell if you're serious.
From what I've heard both in 2013 and in 2017, I'm completely serious.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 29, 2017, 01:41:05 AM
I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.



Branching out?! He's running a rural culture warrior campaign with all the dog whistles. There is no evidence he is keeping a good % of moderates or not getting blown out in NoVa


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 29, 2017, 04:41:56 AM
I just can't fathom a former Washington lobbyist being more popular with voters than a pediatrician and former Army doctor. Looking through Gillespie's career I can't find a single noble thing he's ever done.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 29, 2017, 10:22:52 AM
Worth noting that the polls were only off at the top of the ticket in 2013.  Northam's big margin and Herring's statistical tie were accurately forecasted for LG and AG.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 29, 2017, 10:27:55 AM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 29, 2017, 10:37:41 AM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

Much farther left, particularly on environmental issues that angered business interests and organized labor.  It will be a tradeoff between potentially higher support for Fairfax in areas with a lot of black voters and/or progressive activists vs. lower support than Northam and Herring from other parts of the state.  It would be a different situation if someone like Perriello won the nomination, but the top of the ticket tacking to the center leaves Fairfax exposed and reinforces the idea that he's too far left for the state.

Vogel also seems to be the strongest of the 3 Republicans.  She consolidated Trumpist and Establishment support from day 1, unlike Gillespie who is struggling with Trumpists and Adams who is struggling with Establishment R's. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on October 29, 2017, 10:43:19 AM
http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/jeff-schapiro/schapiro-for-republicans-it-s-every-man-for-himself/article_67d0ec8e-20ef-59be-a934-cb77640f2e52.html

Interesting article


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 29, 2017, 11:28:03 AM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

He's much more liberal (not just than Northam, but also more liberal than Kaine, T-Mac, Warner, and Herring; this isn't necessarily bad or anything, but it means he'll face a tougher race since he also doesn't have the appeal of someone like Perriello to non-NOVA, Republican-leaning parts of the state), lacks Northam's base in the normally Republican-leaning Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore area, lacks Northam's ability to potentially make inroads in the rural areas, and (this part is just my opinion) he has the lean-and-hungry look, so to speak.  The other thing is that (sadly) there's still a risk (especially outside of NOVA) of him facing a small Bradley Effect due to his skin color.  However, Fairfax and Perriello far more in tune with the future of the Virginia Democratic Party than Northam, but the state just isn't there quite yet (and I say that as someone who was an enthusiastic Perriello supporter in during the primary).  Folks like Herring, Northam, etc are the bridge between the past† and the future** as far as Virginia Democratic politicians go.  

What's interesting is that rather than adapting to changing times, the Virginia Republican Party (much like the Republican Party as a whole, but this is one of the best examples) seems to be doubling-down on a doomed (at least in the long-term) "old Virginia" strategy of scorched earth race-baiting and fire-and-brimstone religious demagoguery.  They insist on either running batsh!t insane lunatics (Corey Stewart, The Cooch, E.W. Jackson, etc), forcing otherwise electable candidates to reinvent themselves as far-right bomb-throwers (Gillespie, the VA GOP pushing that transvaginal ultrasound bill in 2012, etc), or simply boxing out electable candidates (Bill Bolling being the most infamous example).  This is going to be self-destructive in the long-term and I'm honestly not sure why they seem to be so stubborn about digging their own grave in Virginia statewide politics, but I digress.

*White, male, center-left politicians with solid socially liberal credentials who still have some real appeal to some of the swingier Republican-leaning parts of Virginia

†Moderate and center-right white Democrats like Mark Warner, pre-Senate Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, etc who bank on an unusually strong appeal in rural areas and try to win by appealing to Republican-leaning independents/less partisan Republicans with moderate or even center-right positions on issues like gun control, taxes, abortion, the death penalty, etc.  Even with Kaine (who was easily the most liberal Virginia Democrat to come anywhere near winning statewide when he was elected Governor), you had some remarkably right-wing social views by today's standards.  For example, Kaine not only supported a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but even argued in 2005 that only married couples should be legally allowed to adopt children.  

**Younger, liberal/solidly center-left Democratic politicians with socially liberal views who (with occasional exceptions like Perriello) are based in NOVA and whose campaigns are tailored toward 1) the Democratic base and 2) suburban voters, are less concerned with keeping down Republican margins in rural Virginia, and don't make all that much of a play for crossover votes aside from more affluent, pro-choice folks who vote Republican because they want low taxes, but also care a great deal about issues like education and transportation.  

Anyway, that's my #HotTake on the state of Virginia politics; I didn't mean for it to be anywhere near this long :P  Our resident Virginians can obviously correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 29, 2017, 11:29:00 AM
Quote
Jonathan Martin‏Verified account
@jmartNYT
Follow Follow @jmartNYT

Va Ds far more confident (tho not cocky) about #vagov than out of state bed-wetters.  Base is engaged, indictments about to block out sun


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on October 29, 2017, 11:46:11 AM
Quote
Jonathan Martin‏Verified account
@jmartNYT
Follow Follow @jmartNYT

Va Ds far more confident (tho not cocky) about #vagov than out of state bed-wetters.  Base is engaged, indictments about to block out sun

Yep and the article I linked prior shows the GOP thinking the gov race is Northam's to lose and the only competitive race is Lt gov


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 29, 2017, 01:52:21 PM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

$$ Fairfax simply doesn’t have the adequate resources to sell himself to voters while Vogel is personally wealthy. And the GOV/AG races are sucking up all the money, if the Senate was tied like it was in 2013 and Ds could take back the chamber you’d see more attention to Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on October 29, 2017, 02:26:56 PM
Quote
Jonathan Martin‏Verified account
@jmartNYT
Follow Follow @jmartNYT

Va Ds far more confident (tho not cocky) about #vagov than out of state bed-wetters.  Base is engaged, indictments about to block out sun

Yeah, one thing for sure is that the indictments could not have been better timing for Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 29, 2017, 02:45:35 PM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

He's much more liberal (not just than Northam, but also more liberal than Kaine, T-Mac, Warner, and Herring; this isn't necessarily bad or anything, but it means he'll face a tougher race since he also doesn't have the appeal of someone like Perriello to non-NOVA, Republican-leaning parts of the state), lacks Northam's base in the normally Republican-leaning Virginia Beach/Eastern Shore area, lacks Northam's ability to potentially make inroads in the rural areas, and (this part is just my opinion) he has the lean-and-hungry look, so to speak.  The other thing is that (sadly) there's still a risk (especially outside of NOVA) of him facing a small Bradley Effect due to his skin color.  However, Fairfax and Perriello far more in tune with the future of the Virginia Democratic Party than Northam, but the state just isn't there quite yet (and I say that as someone who was an enthusiastic Perriello supporter in during the primary).  Folks like Herring, Northam, etc are the bridge between the past† and the future** as far as Virginia Democratic politicians go. 

What's interesting is that rather than adapting to changing times, the Virginia Republican Party (much like the Republican Party as a whole, but this is one of the best examples) seems to be doubling-down on a doomed (at least in the long-term) "old Virginia" strategy of scorched earth race-baiting and fire-and-brimstone religious demagoguery.  They insist on either running batsh!t insane lunatics (Corey Stewart, The Cooch, E.W. Jackson, etc), forcing otherwise electable candidates to reinvent themselves as far-right bomb-throwers (Gillespie, the VA GOP pushing that transvaginal ultrasound bill in 2012, etc), or simply boxing out electable candidates (Bill Bolling being the most infamous example).  This is going to be self-destructive in the long-term and I'm honestly not sure why they seem to be so stubborn about digging their own grave in Virginia statewide politics, but I digress.

*White, male, center-left politicians with solid socially liberal credentials who still have some real appeal to some of the swingier Republican-leaning parts of Virginia

†Moderate and center-right white Democrats like Mark Warner, pre-Senate Tim Kaine, Creigh Deeds, etc who bank on an unusually strong appeal in rural areas and try to win by appealing to Republican-leaning independents/less partisan Republicans with moderate or even center-right positions on issues like gun control, taxes, abortion, the death penalty, etc.  Even with Kaine (who was easily the most liberal Virginia Democrat to come anywhere near winning statewide when he was elected Governor), you had some remarkably right-wing social views by today's standards.  For example, Kaine not only supported a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but even argued in 2005 that only married couples should be legally allowed to adopt children. 

**Younger, liberal/solidly center-left Democratic politicians with socially liberal views who (with occasional exceptions like Perriello) are based in NOVA and whose campaigns are tailored toward 1) the Democratic base and 2) suburban voters, are less concerned with keeping down Republican margins in rural Virginia, and don't make all that much of a play for crossover votes aside from more affluent, pro-choice folks who vote Republican because they want low taxes, but also care a great deal about issues like education and transportation. 

Anyway, that's my #HotTake on the state of Virginia politics; I didn't mean for it to be anywhere near this long :P  Our resident Virginians can obviously correct me if I'm wrong about any of this.

To a certain extent but understand that VA dems are still moderate by and large. They want low but effective taxes and better infrastructure. Social issues don't have as big a pull here, true, but it cuts both ways. Run on leftist issues as a Dem and risk NoVA and Richmond moderates at your own peril. VA is not CA by any stretch. Go south of Prince William and understand. Talk to workers in Ffx and PW and this will become clearer.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 29, 2017, 03:29:26 PM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

$$ Fairfax simply doesn’t have the adequate resources to sell himself to voters while Vogel is personally wealthy. And the GOV/AG races are sucking up all the money, if the Senate was tied like it was in 2013 and Ds could take back the chamber you’d see more attention to Fairfax.


It could easily be tied in 2019, so Fairfax vs. Vogel matters a great deal for redistricting.  You would think he would get more attention just for that reason.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2017, 10:03:29 AM
A new Quinnipiac poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 30, 2017, 10:05:21 AM
A new Quinnipiac Utter Junk poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.

FTFY


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on October 30, 2017, 10:53:46 AM


A new Quinnipiac Utter Junk poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.

FTFY

Wait is your signature a joke or do you seriously support Doug Jones, Phil Murphy, AND Ed Gillespie?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 30, 2017, 11:03:04 AM
New Q poll (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2495)

Northam (D) 53 (nc)
Gillespie (R) 36 (-3)
Hyra (L) 3


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2017, 11:12:12 AM
New ad from Latino Victory is really something (https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 30, 2017, 11:16:31 AM
New Poll from the world of non-junk: Northam +6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 30, 2017, 11:34:40 AM
New Poll from the world of non-junk: Northam +6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/

Any poll with Gillespie losing is junk.

/s


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2017, 02:35:59 PM
#Unity here in Charlottesville:

()

If I hadn't known who these two were and someone told me Northam was 15 years older than Perriello, I wouldn't really believe it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frodo on October 30, 2017, 05:05:45 PM
New ad from Latino Victory is really something (https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289)

They should play some variation of that at every opportunity next year and in 2020. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 30, 2017, 06:11:16 PM
New Q poll (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2495)

Northam (D) 53 (nc)
Gillespie (R) 36 (-3)
Hyra (L) 3

I believe once all the votes are tallied it will result in Northam winning by about half this margin. Northam by about 8 to 8.5%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on October 30, 2017, 09:07:50 PM
Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on October 30, 2017, 09:35:42 PM
Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

I think thats a steyer linked group.  Nothing to do with Northam


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 30, 2017, 09:39:16 PM
Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

Campaigns cannot coordinate with Super PACs.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 30, 2017, 09:44:15 PM
The campaign statement didn't reject the ad.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/925045143299817473


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 30, 2017, 09:47:48 PM
This has been one of the worst campaigns ever run.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on October 30, 2017, 09:51:39 PM
I want to ask, why exactly is Fairfax weaker than Northam? 

$$ Fairfax simply doesn’t have the adequate resources to sell himself to voters while Vogel is personally wealthy. And the GOV/AG races are sucking up all the money, if the Senate was tied like it was in 2013 and Ds could take back the chamber you’d see more attention to Fairfax.


I think Fairfax is the only D on the ballot I would vote for.. Vogel seems like a dirty campaigner..


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 30, 2017, 09:53:02 PM
This has been one of the worst campaigns ever run.

Gillespie?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on October 30, 2017, 09:53:35 PM
The campaign statement didn't reject the ad.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/925045143299817473
Let's not pretend that the Gillespie campaign has been keeping the moral high ground.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 30, 2017, 09:57:20 PM
I was referring to the election campaign in general.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on October 30, 2017, 09:58:12 PM
Gillespie has run a series of clearly racist ads, but when a Super PAC calls out the racism it's an "error" and "sad". What is sad is the double standard.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 30, 2017, 10:01:16 PM
Ha yeah this ad is REALLY going to sink Northam more then the new today


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 31, 2017, 01:59:53 AM
"HOW DARE YOU CALL ME RACIST," The skinhead yelled.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 31, 2017, 02:16:55 AM
Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

Campaigns cannot coordinate with Super PACs.

Hillary did.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/05/12/how-a-super-pac-plans-to-coordinate-directly-with-hillary-clintons-campaign/?utm_term=.578a1278aace


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: AtorBoltox on October 31, 2017, 02:26:37 AM
I like the ad. Demonising your opponents is the way to win as republicans have shown. Taking the moral high ground may make you feel all warm and fuzzy but it gets you nowhere


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 31, 2017, 02:29:41 AM
Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the Northam ad, at least not these days. Gillespie can run the MS-13 ads, Northam can run his "Latino Fear" ads, and voters can decide whose scare-mongering is more accurate on election day. The era of conciliatory, positive campaigning is over.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 31, 2017, 07:21:19 AM
Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the Northam ad, at least not these days.... Northam can run his "Latino Fear" ads...

Northam did not run this ad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 31, 2017, 07:23:59 AM
Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the Northam ad, at least not these days.... Northam can run his "Latino Fear" ads...

Northam did not run this ad.

Whatever false equivalency works for him to justify his support for Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on October 31, 2017, 08:19:13 AM
Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the Northam ad, at least not these days.... Northam can run his "Latino Fear" ads...

Northam did not run this ad.

Whatever false equivalency works for him to justify his support for Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 31, 2017, 08:58:05 AM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 09:20:37 AM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 09:23:51 AM
Relevant, one comment but if this is a trend... (and it's looking likely)

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2404/Which-party-will-win-the-2017-Virginia-gubernatorial-race
The Zenome Project • an hour ago
The Latino Victory ad has done quite a bit of damage, at least with my greater family in NoVA. My relatives there were saying that a bunch of their people were either going to stay away from the election or vote Gillespie after seeing that commercial. It's also going viral on mainstream conservative media, as Tucker Carlson covered it last night and Mark Dice (the right-wing TMZ account) posted the commercial a few hours ago.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 09:29:14 AM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. They need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 09:29:33 AM
Relevant, one comment but if this is a trend... (and it's looking likely)

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2404/Which-party-will-win-the-2017-Virginia-gubernatorial-race
The Zenome Project • an hour ago
The Latino Victory ad has done quite a bit of damage, at least with my greater family in NoVA. My relatives there were saying that a bunch of their people were either going to stay away from the election or vote Gillespie after seeing that commercial. It's also going viral on mainstream conservative media, as Tucker Carlson covered it last night and Mark Dice (the right-wing TMZ account) posted the commercial a few hours ago.

Folks always say this about negative ads, but they generally have the desired effect regardless of the anecdotes.  


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 09:34:38 AM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. I won't but they need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...

Wait, Gillespie has been running white identity ads on MS-13 and Confederate statues for months, but it's the Democrats that only do identity politics?

What am I missing here?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 09:35:50 AM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. I won't but they need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...

Wait, Gillespie has been running white identity ads on MS-13 and Confederate statues for months, but it's the Democrats that only do identity politics?

What am I missing here?


Both sides are guilty of running these trashy ads as I previously commented here


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 09:40:57 AM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. I won't but they need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...

Wait, Gillespie has been running white identity ads on MS-13 and Confederate statues for months, but it's the Democrats that only do identity politics?

What am I missing here?


Both sides are guilty of running these trashy ads as I previously commented here

Unfortunately, they tend to obtain the desired effect. I still don't think this ad is as bad as Gillespie calling Northam a supporter of sex offenders and pedophiles.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 09:56:55 AM
Another thing, adding in the Gadsden license plate to the truck was an insanely idiotic move. Those are everywhere in VA and one of the most popular in the state, esp. with veterans and AD. Northam could very well lose % pts in PW and Ffx margins (Quantico, Belvoir, moderate vets and AD) based off something like that alone, even though this ad wasn't from him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 31, 2017, 10:17:44 AM
Oh f**k off with this "both sides" bs Moderate Ed's been running a disgusting white identity politics campaign for months including calling Ralph a pedo protector and now you give him crap for fighting fire with fire?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 10:25:04 AM
Oh f**k off with this "both sides" bs Moderate Ed's been running a disgusting white identity politics campaign for months including calling Ralph a pedo protector and now you give him crap for fighting fire with fire?

I give him crap for doing it, Northam for doing it, and now this Latino group for doing it with the disgusting ad. Most Virginians don't favor ads like these from either side and I have personally been told so by people who are tired of them, ignoring them on TV, throwing away the mailers (Ed's not Northam's). They mailers are practically useless now and they have been ramping up the "scary racist Ed" ones in PW County. It promptly went into the trash.

Both sides are guilty of running their respective campaigns into the gutter in the home stretch for turnout and it is despicable.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 10:47:09 AM
The ad is dumb. But if you're getting offended by it, then you were probably voting for Gillespie anyway. And if you were still undecided after the pedo protector race baiting ads, then you were probably voting Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 31, 2017, 10:49:16 AM
Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 31, 2017, 10:51:40 AM
Funny part is that Northam didn't make this ad and they're giving HIM crap for it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 10:53:51 AM
The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on October 31, 2017, 11:03:49 AM
The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.

Even Corker’s “Ford is a philanderer of white women” didn’t sink his campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 11:05:11 AM
The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.

Even Corker’s “Ford is a philanderer of white women” didn’t sink his campaign.

Don't you know that dirty ads only works if you are a Republican? (Not a shot at VirginiaModerate)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 31, 2017, 11:16:07 AM
The difference in reaction tends to boil down the fact that voters don't expect Republicans to be ethical or have a sense of morals. People do expect it from Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 11:51:32 AM
Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 31, 2017, 11:54:25 AM
Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 11:58:28 AM
Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

Northam's campaign has not disavowed the ad.
Previously posted, also as previously stated above


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 31, 2017, 12:06:44 PM
Ads like this are a fact of life now. In most cases, the American people don't care about a candidate's morals anymore, as long as they preach the "right stuff" on policy. While the dems are quicker to point out moral travesties in their party then republicans are, in the average case, neither major party cares about moral travesties on their side, whether it comes in the form of nasty campaign ads, affairs, or more recently, outright physical assaults of reporters. 90% of Republicans voted for Trump despite Access Hollywood, and 90% of Democrats voted for Clinton despite her whole list of scandals. That shows that the "holier than thou" attitude isn't worth it. It may be nice to think about, but it's not suited for today's political world.

As I said above, let Northam and his SuperPacs run their smears, and let Gillespie and his SuperPacs run theirs, and voters can decide who should be feared more on election day. This "outrage" over negative ads existing is nothing more than partisan hackery - dems would never criticize a democratic ad, and republicans would never criticize a republican ad. Let's just resolve to quit complaining about the tone and treat it as a fact of life.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 12:13:03 PM
Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

I will vote for him because EG is bad on several issues but right in pointing out the VA needs econ diversification, better infrastructure, less traffic in NOVA. To be fair, Northam has pointed these out as well but the only focus we are getting now is the racial stuff which really is a turnoff and a bad way to close out the last week.

Again, it's, not, his, campaign. And if he's already addressing what you need to hear, what's the problem? Where was all the outrage from the people you know when Gillespie started running pedophilia ads?

Northam's campaign has not disavowed the ad.
Previously posted, also as previously stated above

Won't most of the attention be on the indictments though? I doubt that this ad will be on most people's minds next week still as the prevailing news item. If people feel that strongly about this ad, they were probably already gonna vote. Yeah, it certainly doesn't help Northam in any way, but I don't think it's a killer by any means.

Also, Gillespie never disavowed Trump saying that Northam supported Ms-13

Remains to be seen but that will be a factor. How big of a factor will be in exit polls and the gen election margins so can't gauge that unless they do a snap poll within the next 6 days before the 7th hits.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 31, 2017, 12:13:56 PM
Said this previously but race-baiting in a state with an overwhelmingly white and largely rural population is true idiocy. Of course moderate whites will get offended more at ads calling their uncles / cousins in rural Virginia racist hicks more than they will get offended by sex offender ads, one of those more directly relates to their own personal experience. Similarly, I wouldn't expect a Latino voter to have as visceral a reaction to this ad (at least in a negative manner) as to an MS-13 ad or to Donald Trump bashing immigrants.

People are more offended by things which directly insult them, news flash at 11. And saying that 'anyone offended by this ad wasn't voting for us anyway' is one of the main lines of Purge group thought that lost Hillary significant numbers of Obama voters. People don't like being told who they 'actually' support or will vote for and don't like when they're told, in effect, they're not good enough to vote for the Democrat and were probably going to vote for the Republican anyway. Then what happens? Surprise, those people vote for the other party not because they like Republicans or their policies but specifically as a f!%k you to the Democrats.

Democrats need to go back to being the big-tent party of Obama. Say what you want about his presidency, but it is undeniable that he knew how to appeal to people without pissing anyone off or burning any bridges. And if you can convince even 5% or 10% of the people you suspect won't vote for you to either not vote for your opponent or to actually end up giving you a chance, that's how you turn a nail-biter into a 6-10 point win in a light blue state.

Republicans win when identity politics is a primary issue and it always astounds me how dumb Democrats are with regard to this. Yes, it's not 'fair' but the simple reality is people react more negatively to perceived attacks on their own race than against others', and there are more White people in Virginia and across the country than there are minorities. This sort of ad will run well in about 25 - 30 years when the Latino population tops 20% and the White population dips below 50%, but until then Dems do need to stay on issue to win and Republicans need to drag Dems down to their level to win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 12:18:29 PM
Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on October 31, 2017, 12:22:09 PM
Let's be honest, the people saying, "im outraged," were never going to vote for Northam in the first place.

This is totally besides the point. I don’t know how many voters there are that were planning on staying home that will now show up for Gillespie, but what I do know is that reactionaries will look for any reason to get riled up, and Latino Victory just gave them one.

Let’s just say I’m glad this indictment news is gonna take up the media spotlight for the next week.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 12:32:10 PM
Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

Race and Hispanic Origin   
White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   70.0%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   19.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.5%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   6.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   2.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(b)   9.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   62.4%

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/VA


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 12:37:14 PM
Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

Race and Hispanic Origin   
White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   70.0%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   19.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.5%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   6.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   2.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(b)   9.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   62.4%

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/VA

That's not that white. It's slightly more white than Illinois.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 12:41:24 PM
()

Most of the areas in red have large rural tracts. VA isn't a state with gigantic cities filling up entire counties. Additionally, all cities in VA are independent.

You are correct in that, as of the 2010 census, just under 25% of the state is rural but that doesn't take into account the fact that some "suburban or city" portions of VA would qualify as rural to some from a larger, more urban state. For example, if you live in Cville you might live down the road further on 29 in Albemarle and it might be construed as "city" but it's really not.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 12:45:24 PM
My argument was along the lines of Virginia being more mid Atlantic and less south than Uncle Sam was implying.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on October 31, 2017, 12:46:11 PM
The other problem is Northam's best play is probably to ignore it and hope people forget. The reality is that if he condemned the ad the base would rebel and he would lose votes, while if he openly supports it it will just make matters worse. The ad makes clear the disparities among the leftmost supporters of Northam and the moderates at just about the worst possible time.

The indictments might end up being a godsend for Northam honestly, in that they will allow more liberal networks to focus on national factors that play well for him vs local factors that may be swinging against him.

I'm gonna make a prediction: Gillespie will, now that he can probably count on the support of rural whites, release an end-of-campaign message as very similar to the one Donald Trump blanketed Michigan with near the end of the race last November, essentially just outlining his positive plans for Virginia (look for Transportation and economic growth messaging in particular) and trying to make the most recent image of him in voters' minds be a positive one. It's a campaign tactic that has worked for the GOP before (run negative, negative, negative right up to the week of the election, then close with a positive message), and it's a play the Democrats must prepare for - there won't be enough time to cut an uplifting Northam ad in response, and it looks really bad if a negative ad from one party runs concurrently with a positive one from the other right before the election.

Gillespie knows what he is doing and I feel like either Northam doesn't have as good control of his campaign as I previously thought, or external forces beyond his control are sabotaging him.

I think this will be a wild week.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 31, 2017, 12:48:18 PM
Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/358027-shareblue-media-reporter-arrested-while-filming-gillespie)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 31, 2017, 12:49:55 PM
Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/358027-shareblue-media-reporter-arrested-while-filming-gillespie)

>Shareblue

Lol.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 12:50:51 PM
The other problem is Northam's best play is probably to ignore it and hope people forget. The reality is that if he condemned the ad the base would rebel and he would lose votes, while if he openly supports it it will just make matters worse. The ad makes clear the disparities among the leftmost supporters of Northam and the moderates at just about the worst possible time.

The indictments might end up being a godsend for Northam honestly, in that they will allow more liberal networks to focus on national factors that play well for him vs local factors that may be swinging against him.

I'm gonna make a prediction: Gillespie will, now that he can probably count on the support of rural whites, release an end-of-campaign message as very similar to the one Donald Trump blanketed Michigan with near the end of the race last November, essentially just outlining his positive plans for Virginia (look for Transportation and economic growth messaging in particular) and trying to make the most recent image of him in voters' minds be a positive one. It's a campaign tactic that has worked for the GOP before (run negative, negative, negative right up to the week of the election, then close with a positive message), and it's a play the Democrats must prepare for - there won't be enough time to cut an uplifting Northam ad in response, and it looks really bad if a negative ad from one party runs concurrently with a positive one from the other right before the election.

Gillespie knows what he is doing and I feel like either Northam doesn't have as good control of his campaign as I previously thought, or external forces beyond his control are sabotaging him.

I think this will be a wild week.

Almost psychic, that's exactly what he is doing. Latest ad as of 9 mins ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg3Gac44cl4


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 12:56:43 PM
I just can't wait for this week to be over because the freak out over a single ad that won't make a difference is exhausting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 12:57:38 PM
Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/358027-shareblue-media-reporter-arrested-while-filming-gillespie)

Distrusting disregard for the 1st Amendment by the Gillespie campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 31, 2017, 01:08:34 PM
Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/358027-shareblue-media-reporter-arrested-while-filming-gillespie)

Distrusting disregard for the 1st Amendment by the Gillespie campaign.

1) Racist dog whistles: check
2) Attacking reporters: check
3) Preposterous ads (pedophilia accusations): check


>Moderate in today's Republican party

I'm sure I missed some.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on October 31, 2017, 01:11:39 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 31, 2017, 01:15:33 PM
1) Racist dog whistles: check
2) Attacking reporters: check
3) Preposterous ads (pedophilia accusations): check


>Moderate in today's Republican party

I'm sure I missed some.

Gillespie is a moderate in the sense that if he didn't feel the need (and wasn't so willing..) to bend and twist his agenda/campaigning style to win an election, he would probably campaign and govern like a moderate.

But that is not the case. Gillespie is the ultimate partisan hack. He was literally paid to be a partisan hack by holding the job of RNC chairman. Being a spineless hack that will do or say anything to cling to power and raise money is pretty much the job description of a party chair. It is because of this that Ed's gutter campaign and shameless flip-flopping doesn't surprise me one bit, even if I think he would govern a different way under the right circumstances.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on October 31, 2017, 01:25:53 PM
There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. They need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...
Right! How dare people of color in Virginia be horrified by racist acts after neo-Nazis and Ku Klux Klan marched their streets and killed an innocent anti-racist protester. The horror!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 31, 2017, 02:01:36 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on October 31, 2017, 02:05:27 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 31, 2017, 02:08:56 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 31, 2017, 02:11:06 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Cactus Jack on October 31, 2017, 02:11:29 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


You, my friend, are a perfectly legitimate argument against weed in Washington.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 31, 2017, 02:15:50 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 31, 2017, 02:30:31 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Cactus Jack on October 31, 2017, 02:34:35 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 02:36:59 PM
Quote
Larry Sabato‏
Verified account
@LarrySabato  27s

A week out, Rs have Gillespie down only a couple points. Ds have Northam up mid-single digits. Take your pick, interpret as you wish.#VAGov


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 31, 2017, 02:42:53 PM
New WaPo poll (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/a-week-before-election-day-new-poll-finds-tightening-race-for-va-governor/2017/10/31/61190912-bd7d-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html)

Northam (D) 49
Gillespie (R) 44
Hyra (L) 4


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: fluffypanther19 on October 31, 2017, 02:55:59 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 31, 2017, 02:58:11 PM
Good news for Northam: Today's wash. post poll pushes Monmouth out of the 5 poll average. The last five polls, skipping Hampton and Quinnipiac, are Northam +5,  Northam +6, Gillespie +2, Northam +7,  and Northam +7, which averages out to a fairly comfortable Northam +4.6.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 03:51:02 PM
Quote
Geoff Skelley-ton 
💀
‏ @geoffreyvs  1h
1 hour ago
 
More
I've gotten a bunch of ?s about enthusiasm. Well, Northam has more enthusiastic backing in WaPo's final #VAGov poll than Gillespie. And more than McAuliffe or Cuccinelli four years ago.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2017, 04:04:04 PM
Northam will have the TV advantage in the last week:

()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GlobeSoc on October 31, 2017, 04:08:55 PM
Northam will have the TV advantage in the last week:

()

The most interesting market to me is Roanoke, where the campaigns themselves are roughly even in spending, but outside spending tips it in Gillespie's favor. Who's doing it?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on October 31, 2017, 04:42:32 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on October 31, 2017, 04:52:38 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Ye We Can on October 31, 2017, 04:53:22 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.


Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Man and I thought my teens were sad


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on October 31, 2017, 04:55:18 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: mvd10 on October 31, 2017, 04:55:39 PM
1) Racist dog whistles: check
2) Attacking reporters: check
3) Preposterous ads (pedophilia accusations): check


>Moderate in today's Republican party

I'm sure I missed some.

Gillespie is a moderate in the sense that if he didn't feel the need (and wasn't so willing..) to bend and twist his agenda/campaigning style to win an election, he would probably campaign and govern like a moderate.

But that is not the case. Gillespie is the ultimate partisan hack. He was literally paid to be a partisan hack by holding the job of RNC chairman. Being a spineless hack that will do or say anything to cling to power and raise money is pretty much the job description of a party chair. It is because of this that Ed's gutter campaign and shameless flip-flopping doesn't surprise me one bit, even if I think he would govern a different way under the right circumstances.

This explains everything :P (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terry_McAuliffe#Chairman_of_the_Democratic_National_Committee)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 31, 2017, 05:06:03 PM
Obligatory both sides do it?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 31, 2017, 05:14:45 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Seattle on October 31, 2017, 05:22:33 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

There needs to be a Kamala amazing posts compilation thread.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: OneJ on October 31, 2017, 05:25:02 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

Judging by what you post, I don't know how you can call other people hacks, so... :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 31, 2017, 05:25:10 PM
Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

So all close elections where Republicans lose are rigged? Do you work for the RNC or NCGOP?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 31, 2017, 05:32:11 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

I'll see you, and raise you Florida 2000.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 31, 2017, 05:34:41 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

I'll see you, and raise you Florida 2000.

I see you two, and raise you Illinois Governor 2010.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 31, 2017, 05:36:20 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

I'll see you, and raise you Florida 2000.
Listen Florida in 2000 was iffy but I don’t think it was rigged.I have read about people in the media doing there own recounts and bush still winning so I don’t think that was rigged,just like how I don’t think the 2013 Virginia attorney generals race was rigged even so it was close.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: uti2 on October 31, 2017, 06:05:40 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

I'll see you, and raise you Florida 2000.
Listen Florida in 2000 was iffy but I don’t think it was rigged.I have read about people in the media doing there own recounts and bush still winning so I don’t think that was rigged,just like how I don’t think the 2013 Virginia attorney generals race was rigged even so it was close.

A full recount of the entire state including all overvotes and undervotes  (which was going to be authorized by the state court) had Gore winning.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/06/yes-bush-v-gore-did-steal-the-election.html

Also, if you're assuming that the Dems 'stole' those other elections, then they also would've been able to steal FL had the Supreme Court not violated State's Rights in Bush v. Gore.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 31, 2017, 06:25:22 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

h*cking good. would empty quote


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 31, 2017, 06:57:59 PM
No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.
Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...
You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.

Wanna hear a fact? Democrats won 60% of the primary votes. :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 31, 2017, 07:02:14 PM
Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on October 31, 2017, 07:12:53 PM
Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.

Agreed but Atlas don't let this distract you from the fact that Greedo never shot first or simultaneously but was shot by Han first like the little punk he was.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on October 31, 2017, 07:15:10 PM
Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.

Agreed but Atlas don't let this distract you from the fact that Greedo never shot first or simultaneously but was shot by Han first like the little punk he was.

#GreedoDidNothingWrong
#Justice4Greedo


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on October 31, 2017, 07:25:41 PM
Northam will have the TV advantage in the last week:

()

The most interesting market to me is Roanoke, where the campaigns themselves are roughly even in spending, but outside spending tips it in Gillespie's favor. Who's doing it?

Im sort of in the southern part of the Roanoke market. The few times I've walked by a tv thats been on, we get the same NRA ad over and over. Its a clip of Northam at a Dem conference saying he's proud to have an F from the NRA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on October 31, 2017, 07:39:02 PM
Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.

Agreed but Atlas don't let this distract you from the fact that Greedo never shot first or simultaneously but was shot by Han first like the little punk he was.

#GreedoDidNothingWrong
#Justice4Greedo
Thanks
#greedo4lincolnhouse


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 31, 2017, 08:01:31 PM
Northam will have the TV advantage in the last week:

()

The most interesting thing I think is how little the Latino Victory issue is going to be. Over the next week they are going to spend 32K only in NOVA - itself a drop compared to 2.3 Million being spent by Northam and 1.96 Million being spent by Gillespie. How much airtime do you think 32K gives you in one of the nations most expensive media markets in the last week of a campaign?  If these buys were not reserved in advance, they they could be even more limited.

So the ad is only playing in NOVA for starters, the one area of the state where its issues actually make sense. The monetary spending suggests it won't get the airtime it needs compared to all the other partisan attacks  in the region: Northam and Gillespie, Fairfax and Vogel, Herring and Adams, in addition to all the competitive HoD races currently in NOVA. Its looking like the only people who are really going to see and vividly remember the Latino Victory ad are those that see it online through their partisan networks - Democrats and Republicans who already have their mind made up before watching it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 31, 2017, 08:16:38 PM
I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.
I love you


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on October 31, 2017, 08:18:14 PM
The most interesting thing I think is how little the Latino Victory issue is going to be. Over the next week they are going to spend 32K only in NOVA - itself a drop compared to 2.3 Million being spent by Northam and 1.96 Million being spent by Gillespie. How much airtime do you think 32K gives you in one of the nations most expensive media markets in the last week of a campaign?  If these buys were not reserved in advance, they they could be even more limited.

So the ad is only playing in NOVA for starters, the one area of the state where its issues actually make sense. The monetary spending suggests it won't get the airtime it needs compared to all the other partisan attacks  in the region: Northam and Gillespie, Fairfax and Vogel, Herring and Adams, in addition to all the competitive HoD races currently in NOVA. Its looking like the only people who are really going to see and vividly remember the Latino Victory ad are those that see it online through their partisan networks - Democrats and Republicans who already have their mind made up before watching it.

This about sums up my opinion on it. I do actually think the overall message of the ad has merit but in this case it seems self-defeating if it was put out there with a huge ad buy, and that doesn't seem to be the case. The only people who will probably end up knowing much about this or seeing it will be activists and other partisans who have long since made up their minds. Maybe it could motivate some conservatives who were thinking about not voting, but I dunno how we would even measure that. So far enthusiasm still seems to be on Northam's side.

If Gillespie somehow wins, or if it is a very narrow Northam win, I really doubt this ad will be responsible for it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on October 31, 2017, 08:44:14 PM
Just crazy how Republicans can get away with basically calling Dems gang sympathizers and sex offender supporters but an ad from an independent group implying their racist and there's universal outrage.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 31, 2017, 09:33:32 PM
Politico article on why the polling is all over the place: Random Digit Dial vs. Voter File polls

The biggest outliers are Quinnipiac (N+17) and Hampton (G+8), and both use RDD. When you take those out, the range is a much tighter G+1 to N+7, which is more in line with the kind of spread you would see in a race with a modest Northam lead (and what is much more in line with expectations).

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/31/virginia-governors-polling-northam-gillespie-244362


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 31, 2017, 09:52:00 PM
Fox News (i.e. take it with a grain of salt) is reporting that the Latino Voices ad is being pulled.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 09:42:44 AM
Pulled "due to events" and not because the ad is garbage both by ad standards and politically. This group truly is a piece of sh*t

https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/925492979011325953


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 01, 2017, 09:50:58 AM
They did a bad thing by firing up an army of snowflakes. I'm glad they pulled it down before it got to be a big problem.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 10:08:40 AM
They did a bad thing by firing up an army of snowflakes. I'm glad they pulled it down before it got to be a big problem.

Yes, let's call everyone snowflakes and ignore the backlash against this ad by Virginians of both sides of the spectrum, including backlash from Latino(a)s. Also they were idiots to run this ad when something like this actually happened here but since the perp was here illegally, the news coverage dropped off https://www.mediaite.com/columnists/a-muslim-girl-in-virginia-was-actually-chased-by-a-vehicle-and-killed-but-by-an-illegal-immigrant/ Latino Victory is probably run by 20 something staffers with not a whiff of actual govt/professional PR experience.

This will give Gillespie at least five thousand more votes. Mark my words. And Northam has STILL not officially put out a press release distancing himself from that ad. It might be ill advised to do so but it does show leadership to get out in front of it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:28:16 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 10:41:57 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

Holy crap, so aggressive.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holmes on November 01, 2017, 10:43:03 AM
Oh yikes


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:43:32 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 10:45:24 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gustaf on November 01, 2017, 10:46:56 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

That's a very literal reading. I took it more to be about the resurgence of white supremacy which is undeniably happening in Virginia and elsewhere right now.

Regardless, it's a pulled ad from an external advocacy group which is not linked to Northam. Why are you making it into such a big deal?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:51:35 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

Please, Ed literally ran a campaign tying Northam to MS-13 gang.

So save me the phony outrage.

Like I said, moderates always get exposed when stuff like this happens. And they are big reason why the GOP gets away with it. They always hold Democrats accountable (and they should), but they let Republicans off the hook.

The fact this ad could cost Northam votes, while Ed's ads won't says it all.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 10:52:33 AM
You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

That's a very literal reading. I took it more to be about the resurgence of white supremacy which is undeniably happening in Virginia and elsewhere right now.

Regardless, it's a pulled ad from an external advocacy group which is not linked to Northam. Why are you making it into such a big deal?

Most of those goons in Cville were from out of state. As to the second item, I am making this an issue because any self-respecting, professional campaign would have distanced themselves from a supporting PAC's controversial ad publicly and pretty much the day of. To do otherwise, shows weakness and tacit approval of said ad. EG will gain from this liberal Dem vs. moderate Dem mixed signalling and eat it up both operationally and electorally on the 7th.

Edit: the fact that it took a terrorist attack to make the LV group pull this ad and there is still no official RN campaign response is telling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 01, 2017, 11:26:11 AM
Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 01, 2017, 11:34:29 AM
Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 11:37:35 AM
Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?

Gee let's look at some of the top stories at the most popular daily VA papers' sites:
 
http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/latino-victory-fund-pulls-truck-themed-anti-gillespie-ad-after/article_f6e38527-fbd3-52eb-8b63-03a46c109c7c.html

https://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/controversial-anti-gillespie-ad-with-racial-images-designed-to-lure/article_548d9534-e799-5d61-96cb-5906578bb811.html

These circulate with older VA residents and transit areas, VA gubernatorials have ~40% turnout, you see the picture right?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 01, 2017, 11:50:48 AM
VirginiaModerate (I think) guesstimated upthread that this would give Gillespie 5,000 votes.  If true, that's not going to make the difference unless this race is a lot closer than everyone thinks.  There were over 2 million votes cast in the 2013 gubernatorial election.

(FWIW, I believe race-baiting ads are deplorable no matter who they come from.)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 12:03:58 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Frodo on November 01, 2017, 12:06:44 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?


Chorus of condemnation, you mean?  :P


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 01, 2017, 12:12:33 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

No, America has a pretty low bar when it comes to Republicans and that was before Trump.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 01, 2017, 12:17:22 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?

()

Gillespie gunna Gillespie


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 12:20:02 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?

No, America has a pretty low bar when it comes to Republicans and that was before Trump.

He is also not making white people feel uncomfortable. So it is good, people will ignore this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 12:21:37 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of commendation to this one too?


Chorus of condemnation, you mean?  :P

Thanks


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 01, 2017, 12:39:17 PM
Lila is there any sign this will/has effect Ralph other than "people are saying" and guessing?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 01:02:04 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?


VAModerate, we're waiting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: SoLongAtlas on November 01, 2017, 01:44:09 PM
Another Ralph Northam supports sex offenders ad from Gillespie (https://host2.advertisinganalyticsllc.com/admo/#/viewer/b3bce90f-a160-4898-9aec-9726e327da95)

Will their be a chorus of condemnation to this one too?


VAModerate, we're waiting.

My previous posts about both sides doing this should suffice. I think I'm going to just wait it out and comment here again on the 8th.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 01, 2017, 01:49:04 PM
This minor fiasco kind of stems from the lack of understanding of the political environment by new left-wing groups such as the one that put out this ad. Yes, it's not fair that Gillespie can run a campaign deep in the gutter and Northam can't, but that's the reality the voters and the media have created, so you have to stick with it for now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 01, 2017, 02:06:09 PM
I think it's ridiculous they are trying to insinuate a pediatrician somehow supports pedophiles, I would really like to talk a voter who genuinely believes this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 01, 2017, 02:09:21 PM
Gillespie is not in a good position if he is running an ad like this with less than a week to go.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 01, 2017, 02:36:45 PM
This minor fiasco kind of stems from the lack of understanding of the political environment by new left-wing groups such as the one that put out this ad. Yes, it's not fair that Gillespie can run a campaign deep in the gutter and Northam can't, but that's the reality the voters and the media have created, so you have to stick with it for now.

I would also add that while that is kind of unfair, it's not like I want my party or supporting groups to get into the gutter themselves. I mean is it even necessary? Since when is our ability to win dependent on controversial ads? Especially after listening to a lot of people on the left say we need to promote our ideas and not focus so much on questions of character.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 01, 2017, 02:53:10 PM
While the discussion is mainly on Latino Priorities, DDHQ decided to update their HoD projections.

()

8 seats moved towards the dems, 8 towards the pubs.

Overall, their projection now looks like a D gain of 9 to 11, a rather large swing.

Read more here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/va-house-of-delegates-updates-1031/

Most interesting I think is their analysis of HD 100 (East Shore Delmarva tossup seat), which has the R incumbent barely raising money at all. Certainly the moves of one who either expects an easy victory, or is expecting the Northam regional base to turnout and he never had a chance.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on November 01, 2017, 03:13:50 PM
He is also not making white people feel uncomfortable. So it is good, people will ignore this.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 06:30:56 PM
Early vote has surpassed 2013 (https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/925864164375121920)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 06:33:09 PM
Early vote has surpassed 2013 (https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/925864164375121920)

NoVA doing its thing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 01, 2017, 06:34:13 PM
Regional crosstabs suggest a large advantage for Northam, unfortunately.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on November 01, 2017, 06:42:03 PM
Regional crosstabs suggest a large advantage for Northam, unfortunately.

I'm thinking Northam is going to win by 5-8%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 07:40:52 PM
Some good news:

Quote
Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik  7m7 minutes ago
More
Has anyone heard if there will be an exit poll of Virginia next week?

Quote
Stuart Rothenberg‏ @StuPolitics  5m5 minutes ago
More
I was told there will be one.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 07:49:54 PM
How old does the electorate tend to be/vote in VA off-year elections?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 01, 2017, 07:58:54 PM
It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 08:05:08 PM
It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 08:14:46 PM
It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Same, but yeah


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 01, 2017, 08:22:16 PM
It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.

Is there a regional breakdown available for early voting in 2013?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 01, 2017, 08:30:18 PM
How old does the electorate tend to be/vote in VA off-year elections?

For an off-off-year election in Virginia with statewide races, it basically functions as a midterm electorate with midterm turnout (2013 had even more voters than in 2014). Although this favors Republicans to a degree, their continuing slippage among white college grads will cost them, as they punch above their weight in non-presidential elections.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 08:30:44 PM
It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.

Is there a regional breakdown available for early voting in 2013?

VPAP has it county by county, but I'm not sure of the date of the 2017 data. (https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-interest-2017-general-1/) It at least up to date as of Monday morning.

Two points of note:

- Early voting is up in Prince William, Manassas City and Manassas Park City. Democrats have tended to struggle in off year turn out here, so this might suggest the opposite.
- Looks like there might be a favorite son effect for Northam in Accomack County on the Eastern Shore .


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 09:43:11 PM
https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 01, 2017, 09:47:49 PM
https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Is it a controversy because he's kind of flip flopping along with explaining himself?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 09:50:39 PM
https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2017, 09:55:21 PM
https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.

It's astroturf. Gillespie and the right needed something to distract from the indictments they knew were coming, and of course the media is running with it. This is blatantly obvious. I mean seriously, this is an ad with no purchasing power that was not connected to Northam's campaign at all, yet suddenly is the biggest issue in the race just as the indictments hit? GMAFB.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 09:59:19 PM
https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.

It's astroturf. Gillespie and the right needed something to distract from the indictments they knew were coming, and of course the media is running with it. This is blatantly obvious. I mean seriously, this is an ad with no purchasing power that was not connected to Northam's campaign at all, yet suddenly is the biggest issue in the race just as the indictments hit? GMAFB.

Preach


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:14:57 PM
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-democratic-civil-war-is-getting-nasty-even-if-no-one-is-paying-attention

One thing I hate about elections season is washed up Democratic insiders who always like to give their two cents about everything.

Quote
Clinton was guilty of “malpractice” in how she conducted her 2016 Presidential campaign, Greenberg told me. Even worse, he said, Democrats were repeating the same political mistakes a year later. “Look at Virginia right now,” Greenberg said, as soon as we sat down in his second-floor office. “We have a candidate”—Ralph Northam, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee—“running as Hillary Clinton. He is running on the same kind of issues, and has the same kind of view of the world. It’s the Republicans who talk about the economy, not the Democrats.” This was the approach that doomed Clinton against Trump. The electorate was angry in 2016 and remains angry now, Greenberg said, and Northam, a Norfolk doctor, didn’t get it. Neither did Clinton and the team of Obama veterans who staffed her Brooklyn headquarters. “If you live in the metro areas with the élites, you don’t wake up angry about what’s happening in people’s lives,” Greenberg said.                

Greenberg has no clue what he is talking about. One of the big criticism you have heard from members of the left and minority voters is the fact that Northam has stayed clear from those issues and has talked up the economy.

I am so sick and tired of the useless dead weight in this party.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2017, 10:16:28 PM
Is Mr. Greenberg aware that Hillary carried Virginia comfortably and by a larger margin than Obama did?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 10:21:55 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Maxwell on November 01, 2017, 10:24:07 PM
ugghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh


it would've been better if Northam if had literally put the ad on his twitter page and endorsed it whole heartedly and started running on that message.

it's such god damn amateur hour from someone who has been in politics forever and should have known better.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 10:24:37 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 01, 2017, 10:24:45 PM
Greenberg has no clue what he is talking about. One of the big criticism you have heard from members of the left and minority voters is the fact that Northam has stayed clear from those issues and has talked up the economy.

I am so sick and tired of the useless dead weight in this party.

And ironically it is Gillespie who has really made culture war stuff his calling card. Greenberg is just talking out of his butt to stay relevant, as evidenced by his expert analysis that reads as if by someone who is analyzing the wrong election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 01, 2017, 10:25:44 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)

()

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 10:26:33 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)



()

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.

The truck ad was half of that money. And the campaign still had to approve it, or go through the motions of approving it, as the law states.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 01, 2017, 10:27:06 PM
Alright now I'm starting to roll my eyes. This was a poorly thought-out ad, but the number of people who actually saw it may actually be less than the number of people outraged on Twitter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 01, 2017, 10:28:50 PM
Alright now I'm starting to roll my eyes. This was a poorly thought-out ad, but the number of people who actually saw it may actually be less than the number of people outraged on Twitter.

The ad only seems much more relevant because we're all on edge sucking down coffee and/or energy drinks all day while refreshing Virginia election-related pages.

In the end it probably won't make a difference one way or the other.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 10:29:00 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:29:36 PM
Greenberg has no clue what he is talking about. One of the big criticism you have heard from members of the left and minority voters is the fact that Northam has stayed clear from those issues and has talked up the economy.

I am so sick and tired of the useless dead weight in this party.

And ironically it is Gillespie who has really made culture war stuff his calling card. Greenberg is just talking out of his butt to stay relevant, as evidenced by his expert analysis that reads as if by someone who is analyzing the wrong election.

Yup, it is hilariously bad take.

I am just tired of out state Democrats lecturing us about what we need to do to win elections here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 01, 2017, 10:30:02 PM
I love that people are outraged at Democrats having the audacity...nay, temerity to call the racist GOP pols racist while Gillespie is out there calling Northam a pedophile.

I hate the GOP with a burning passion.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 01, 2017, 10:30:56 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

From my perch up in Ohio, I can confidently assure you the national media isn't saying boo about this race, much less some dumb ad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 10:33:55 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

dude no one give a flyin f**k about this ad outside of people who are twitter politics nerds who already had their minds up. the media is hardly even covering it. you have to look it up. It's not on any main pages of any Virginia news sites. Normal people are only hearing about the terror attack and the indictments.

Northern Virginia has more "twitter politics nerds" than anywhere else in the country.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:34:27 PM
Hell, I am in central VA and the news has pretty much ignored this "controversy".


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 10:35:04 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

From my perch up in Ohio, I can confidently assure you the national media isn't saying boo about this race, much less some dumb ad.

You're right about the coverage on the ad, but there's literally been 65 "democrats panic in Virginia" stories in the past month.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 01, 2017, 10:35:27 PM
LimoLiberal bro you need to CALM DOWN.

And if you're upset, go volunteer. Knock on some doors, make some calls, talk to your friends and loved ones about voting, have them make plans to vote.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 10:35:27 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

dude no one give a flyin f**k about this ad outside of people who are twitter politics nerds who already had their minds up. the media is hardly even covering it. you have to look it up. It's not on any main pages of any Virginia news sites. Normal people are only hearing about the terror attack and the indictments.

Yeah, I just did a quick review of the main VA news papers and the stories on this ad is nowhere. I've only seen the big push for it on the rightwing fringes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 10:37:43 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

From my perch up in Ohio, I can confidently assure you the national media isn't saying boo about this race, much less some dumb ad.

You're right about the coverage on the ad, but there's literally been 65 "democrats panic in Virginia" stories in the past month.

Almost all of this has come from national democrats. Local Democrats think that Northam is up by about 5-6 points (local Republicans have admitted they think Northam is up too, but low single digits).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2017, 10:39:00 PM
LimoLiberal bro you need to CALM DOWN.

And if you're upset, go volunteer. Knock on some doors, make some calls, talk to your friends and loved ones about voting, have them make plans to vote.

My house is literally a democratic canvass center. Don't wanna say more that could dox myself (not like anybody cares). You're right about being upset, I just feel like there's been misstep after misstep with the Northam campaign, along with simplistic media coverage and the cynicism that Virginians will buy in to Gillespie's racism. Gonna go to bed now, hope there's a poll or something tomorrow.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2017, 10:42:05 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)

()

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.

More on this (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925929823985422336)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 01, 2017, 10:42:26 PM
I'm ready for this race to be over so Gillespie can go back to the depths of the sewer where most GOP operatives live when they have nothing better to do. Both Democrats and Republicans are trying to make Governor Gillespie happen, when it really is not going to happen.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 01, 2017, 10:42:44 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

You really need to stop looking for "worrying signs" of Northam blowing it on Twitter. It's not healthy

Each of these events in particular isn't going to destroy Northam. Its when they build up, controversy after controversy, national media latches on, narratives are formed, campaigns continue to stumble, than it worsens. Basically what happened to Hillary last year.

dude no one give a flyin f**k about this ad outside of people who are twitter politics nerds who already had their minds up. the media is hardly even covering it. you have to look it up. It's not on any main pages of any Virginia news sites. Normal people are only hearing about the terror attack and the indictments.

Yeah, I just did a quick review of the main VA news papers and the stories on this ad is nowhere. I've only seen the big push for it on the rightwing fringes.
And bed-wetting liberals on Twitter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 01, 2017, 10:43:45 PM
LimoLiberal bro you need to CALM DOWN.

And if you're upset, go volunteer. Knock on some doors, make some calls, talk to your friends and loved ones about voting, have them make plans to vote.

My house is literally a democratic canvass center. Don't wanna say more that could dox myself (not like anybody cares). You're right about being upset, I just feel like there's been misstep after misstep with the Northam campaign, along with simplistic media coverage and the cynicism that Virginians will buy in to Gillespie's racism. Gonna go to bed now, hope there's a poll or something tomorrow.
This is good. I had many freak out moments working for Maggie Hassan. This is one of them. It will pass.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 10:47:35 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)

()

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.

More on this (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925929823985422336)

I know they are shameless, but conservatives willingness to argue in bad faith still amazes me.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 01, 2017, 11:02:28 PM
Alright now I'm starting to roll my eyes. This was a poorly thought-out ad, but the number of people who actually saw it may actually be less than the number of people outraged on Twitter.

The ad only seems much more relevant because we're all on edge sucking down coffee and/or energy drinks all day while refreshing Virginia election-related pages.

In the end it probably won't make a difference one way or the other.

Oddly enough I'm really not that stressed about it, and neither are most of my VA Dem friends and colleagues. Obviously all this built-up angst surrounding the race comes from the shock of the 2016 election, but I have faith in that this state will deliver more statewide Dem victories like it has in every race since 2009. Idk, maybe I'm operating on outdated political philosophies, but I feel like recent history still matters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2017, 11:03:50 PM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)

()

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.

More on this (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925929823985422336)

I know they are shameless, but conservatives willingness to argue in bad faith still amazes me.

They get away with it because most Americans still see Republicans as the patriotic party and the party of fiscal responsibility, however nonsensical that is. Democrats have done a piss-poor job in combatting the perception on both those fronts.

They need to just start all wearing American flag-emblazoned suits in Congress and start saying that they're the ones fighting for the little guy and that the Republicans cut taxes to hell in the Bush years and ran the economy into the ground (no matter if that's completely true or not) and make the comparison with Trump=Bush and never take the foot off the gas

They get away with it because the media has a massive normalcy bias concerning everything in uS politics. The GOP in it's current form is not a normal political party, the President of the United States is not a normal president. But the media, especially the clowns in the beltway, are so afraid to accept this fact that any time a Democrat attempts to push back on the GOP or Trump, the media just cries "both sides!" and moves on to something else.

It is intellectually lazy and extremely dangerous and it is big reason why the GOP won't bother to change.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2017, 01:51:16 AM
Long Sabato article for those interested: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/signs-and-portents/


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 02, 2017, 06:32:10 AM
So when Democrats run a hard hitting ads against a Republican, they are going over the line?  Were Republicans going over the line when in 2002 they ran ads in Georgia saying that Max Cleland was just like Osama Bin Laden because he supported civil service protections for Department of Homeland Security employees?  No, they were considered "patriotic" for this as and defeated Cleland.  The Cleland/Bin Laden ad was far more inappropriate than the "Truck" ad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: uti2 on November 02, 2017, 06:40:35 AM
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/925914771949604864

The story that keeps on hurting.

Already shot down by a legitimate reporter (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925924733287325696)

()

Hopefully, VA voters stay informed and avoid the Republican party's ridiculous electoral tactics.

More on this (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/925929823985422336)

I know they are shameless, but conservatives willingness to argue in bad faith still amazes me.

They get away with it because most Americans still see Republicans as the patriotic party and the party of fiscal responsibility, however nonsensical that is. Democrats have done a piss-poor job in combatting the perception on both those fronts.

They need to just start all wearing American flag-emblazoned suits in Congress and start saying that they're the ones fighting for the little guy and that the Republicans cut taxes to hell in the Bush years and ran the economy into the ground (no matter if that's completely true or not) and make the comparison with Trump=Bush and never take the foot off the gas

It's ironic,but they were originally making that argument, they only changed once the GE started, and they haven't changed their positioning on the issue since:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/how-a-decision-in-may-changed-the-general-election

The GOP courtship strategy of praising Bush continues (at least they've stopped praising Ryan, so there's a marginal improvement for downballot prospects, but it doesn't go far enough).

The Democrats who constantly try to rehabilitate and negotiate with Republicans are the ones who have created this situation, not the media. The media will play the same game even if the Democrats do it, Obama ran as a radical on Foreign Policy, they defended him consistently, there are no penalties for radical politics. If the Dems were a party that refused to compromise like the GOP, the media would also be defending the democrats, which is the point, there was zero need for Obama to court Republicans back in 2009-2010, his mere election ensured the death of the blue dogs, he was elected as a radical who eroded much of a the traditional democratic base and replacing it with a different type of heavily urban voter (which is why blue dogs strongly backed hillary in '08).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2017, 09:29:20 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2017, 09:36:24 AM
Well, uh, all hail Gov. Northam, I guess. :(


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2017, 09:46:17 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Now THIS is bad.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2017, 09:49:24 AM
KKKorey Stewart calls Democrats the party of "criminals, communists, crackheads, and weirdos" as he mocked a transgender candidate. (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/926064238833135617)

Both sides do it. I am so proud to be a centrist.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2017, 09:52:14 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Now THIS is bad.

No its not. Republicans could run on a platform of leveling San Francisco and almost half the country would cheer. People are only outraged when Democrats do it

Gillespie needs a certain percentage in northern virginia, its definitely not good for him


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 09:52:34 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Northam needs to go hard on this the last couple days, see if he can get an ad up in the DC market before Tuesday.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2017, 09:55:52 AM
KKKorey Stewart calls Democrats the party of "criminals, communists, crackheads, and weirdos" as he mocked a transgender candidate. (https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/926064238833135617)

Both sides do it. I am so proud to be a centrist.

Me too.  But I have to say that in recent years, the right has been more egregious about this kind of thing than the left has.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 02, 2017, 10:14:03 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

where in the recording is it? I didn't hear it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2017, 10:57:12 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

where in the recording is it? I didn't hear it.
50 seconds in i believe


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 02, 2017, 11:30:42 AM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Now THIS is bad.

No its not. Republicans could run on a platform of leveling San Francisco and almost half the country would cheer. People are only outraged when Democrats do it
Half the country, but almost none of California.

You can’t call the most important part of the state enemy territory.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2017, 12:00:20 PM
Hyra drop out rumor was false, his press conference was just him bashing both canidates/ parties


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2017, 12:01:55 PM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Now THIS is bad.

No its not. Republicans could run on a platform of leveling San Francisco and almost half the country would cheer. People are only outraged when Democrats do it
Half the country, but almost none of California.

You can’t call the most important part of the state enemy territory.


He can.

Republicans always get away with insulting city dwelling folk.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2017, 12:07:09 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 02, 2017, 12:13:40 PM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Now THIS is bad.

No its not. Republicans could run on a platform of leveling San Francisco and almost half the country would cheer. People are only outraged when Democrats do it
Half the country, but almost none of California.

You can’t call the most important part of the state enemy territory.


He can.

Republicans always get away with insulting city dwelling folk.

Yes they do because they never have to compete in those territories. Republicans can criticize SF, LA,  Chicago, or NY all they want because they never have any hope of winning there in any race. The loss of votes in those cities doesn't hurt the Republican party in any way, locally or in the electoral college. The votes gained in areas that benefit the Republican party are more important then the ones lost in the cities. However demonizing a area that is part of your state and has the chance to vote against you in 5 days doesn't seem like the soundest strategy.

Of course, I think this whole thing is relatively minor. Just like Latino Victories, this issue is minor compared to the Mueller talks earlier this week, or just regular policy issues that voters have been bombarded with for several months.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 02, 2017, 12:17:54 PM
My guess is Northam +3 but of course hoping for an upset.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 02, 2017, 12:31:49 PM
Gillespie sent himself to depths of political hell with that enemy territory comment. He's stupid enough to think that all he needs to win is Southwest Virginia, but that's far from being accurate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 12:32:24 PM
This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 12:40:34 PM
This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.

Are you simple?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2013&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0
All I said was that Gillespie would win undecided voters.
Also I didn’t say would get a 6 point swing I have been saying since the beginning of September
48.72% Gillespie and 48.31% northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 02, 2017, 12:48:15 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 02, 2017, 12:49:59 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2017, 12:51:44 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Skipping over the Kellyanne Conway poll puts the Fox News poll in the average, so either way you get somebody that is not non-partisan.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 12:52:35 PM
This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.

Are you simple?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2013&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0
All I said was that Gillespie would win undecided voters.
Also I didn’t say would get a 6 point swing I have been saying since the beginning of September
48.72% Gillespie and 48.31% northam.

He'd have to win ~70% of the undecided for that to happen.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 12:52:45 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.
If that Conway poll said Gillespie plus 12 I would agree but it’s plus 2 within the margin of error stop complaining when a poll comes out you don’t like.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 12:54:06 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Skipping over the Kellyanne Conway poll puts the Fox News poll in the average, so either way you get somebody that is not non-partisan.

Fox's polling unit is legit.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 12:54:10 PM
This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.

Are you simple?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2013&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0
All I said was that Gillespie would win undecided voters.
Also I didn’t say would get a 6 point swing I have been saying since the beginning of September
48.72% Gillespie and 48.31% northam.

He'd have to win ~70% of the undecided for that to happen.

How many undecideds did he win 2014 oh right 99% plus some democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 12:55:49 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.
If that Conway poll said Gillespie plus 12 I would agree but it’s plus 2 within the margin of error stop complaining when a poll comes out you don’t like.

Oh the irony. What'd you say about Quinnipiac again?
That poll is trash it’s the only one saying that northam is up double digits heck he was by the as Murphy in New Jersey no way is that poll real.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 02, 2017, 12:56:00 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Skipping over the Kellyanne Conway poll puts the Fox News poll in the average, so either way you get somebody that is not non-partisan.

Fox News is not an internal pollster like the Polling Company. After all the lies Conway has told, it seems wise not trust her company's polling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 02, 2017, 12:56:05 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 12:58:59 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

That Hampton's poll is crazy. 27% undecided and no Libertarian, but I agree it was done in good faith.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 01:00:16 PM
FYI northam is up only 3.6 on RCP.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2017, 01:04:23 PM
Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)




Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

That Hampton's poll is crazy. 27% undecided and no Libertarian, but I agree it was done in good faith.

Hampton and Quinnipiac are both using RDD sampling instead of RBS.  I'd throw them both out (and Conway's poll) but keep Fox.  Their polling has historically been solid.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2017, 01:06:26 PM
Fairfax County absentee numbers through 11/1 (https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/926087312630431744)

23132 ballots mailed out, 10580 returned.  
21544 in-person.
TOTAL: 32124

For comparison, 2013 was:

11897 mailed out, 8307 returned.
17495 in-person
TOTAL: 25802

EDIT: fixed the county name (although "Fairfox" would be a cool name)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 01:09:23 PM
Fairfox County absentee numbers through 11/1 (https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/926087312630431744)

23132 ballots mailed out, 10580 returned. 
21544 in-person.
TOTAL: 32124

For comparison, 2013 was:

11897 mailed out, 8307 returned.
17495 in-person
TOTAL: 25802

Hopefully this is a sign of increased turnout rather than just more people voting early.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 02, 2017, 02:07:15 PM
Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 02, 2017, 02:44:35 PM
Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on November 02, 2017, 02:47:44 PM
Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

b-b-b-ut some random people ran an ad! Both sides do it!

- Media


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2017, 02:48:25 PM
Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 02:50:29 PM
Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

Chesterfield is great because it almost always reports early.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 02, 2017, 03:01:21 PM
Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

I....I'm surprised I don't know that. For the past several VA elections, my focus has always been on the Tidewater cities, Richmond suburbs, Fairfax, and Loudon. I typically pass over the other counties (rurals, independent cities) as reports rise. I seem to recall from past elections that PW reported like Fairfax (small start, big drop, then a triccle of late precincts) though this could be wrong as well.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 03:13:56 PM
Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

I....I'm surprised I don't know that. For the past several VA elections, my focus has always been on the Tidewater cities, Richmond suburbs, Fairfax, and Loudon. I typically pass over the other counties (rurals, independent cities) as reports rise. I seem to recall from past elections that PW reported like Fairfax (small start, big drop, then a triccle of late precincts) though this could be wrong as well.

Yeah, it seems like the more Republican area between the I-95 and I-66 corridors reports first.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2017, 03:55:23 PM
Good news: Not only will we be getting exit polls for VA and NJ Gov, but we will also be getting a 2nd set of experimental exit polls from Fox News.

Quote
Mishkin said he and a team of seven others have developed a new projection system that includes doing something counterintuitive.

“We're going to be talking to people who tell us they're not going to vote,” Mishkin said. “We're going to say, 'Well, okay, why aren't you voting? And if you were going to vote, who would you have voted for?'”

Here's the logic: “If you think about American politics since 2004, election results are less about who convinced whom and more about who motivated their base better. Who got their people to the polls?”

The Fox News Voter Analysis will start by polling voters on landlines, mobile phones and the Internet four days before Election Day. If in Virginia, for example, Fox News can detect that a significant slice of Republican voters who prefer Ed Gillespie to Ralph Northam are going to stay home because the candidate they really wanted was Corey Stewart, then the network might make a more educated guess on Election Day.

It seems a little strange, but I think it's a good thing to have multiple types, and maybe it could work.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/11/02/fox-news-is-trying-to-reinvent-the-exit-poll-the-survey-strategy-involves-people-who-dont-vote/?utm_term=.b2c8f44d4f0d


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 02, 2017, 04:01:12 PM
God the next five days are going to be AGONIZING.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2017, 06:25:08 PM
To be fair to Enron Ed, he wouldn't know what enemy territory looks like, having never served in our country's armed forces.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 02, 2017, 07:39:08 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/926246292392759296
Is it just me, or are they purposely trying to lose?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2017, 07:40:02 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/926246292392759296
Is it just me, or are they purposely trying to lose?

I don't know about purposely, but it sure is a badly run campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2017, 08:05:39 PM
Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Babeuf on November 02, 2017, 08:10:16 PM
Northam flipping to support a sanctuary cities ban was awful. He had to know there would be blowback from it, plus it seemed to come for no reason. Gillespie's sanctuary city ads already made their mark, a switch this late isn't going to defuse the issue, it will just being it back to the headlines when the indictments could be the story.

edit: I think DFA is being counterproductive here, but Northam's maneuvers are baffling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on November 02, 2017, 08:11:43 PM
Democrats, defeat, jaws of victory, etc.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Littlefinger on November 02, 2017, 08:14:37 PM
So DFA would rather have race-baiting Ed be governor and give Republicans full control over Virginia for essentially the next decade with redistricting? With Brazile desperately trying to sell books with her comments 5 days before hugely important elections and now this, it is like they are trying to lose. What a MORONIC decision by DFA.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2017, 08:15:26 PM
I mean, Northam is probably going to lose at this point. He has had a disastrous last week of campaigning. The first gubernatorial election lost on an issue not even present in the state -  sanctuary cities.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 02, 2017, 08:18:05 PM
I still think Northam will win, but holy hell this is amazing to watch.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 02, 2017, 08:24:18 PM
FIRE UP THOSE #HOTTAKES, WE'VE GOT 4 DAYS LEFT OF THIS STUFF!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on November 02, 2017, 08:25:59 PM
I love the #hottakes here


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 08:27:53 PM
Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 02, 2017, 08:32:39 PM
Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

Northam’s still gonna win by like 6-8 points.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 02, 2017, 08:36:32 PM
THE TAKES CAPTAIN, THEY'RE TOO HOT, THEY'RE MELTING THE HULL


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 02, 2017, 08:38:14 PM
Northam is still going to win by 4-6%


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Littlefinger on November 02, 2017, 08:40:30 PM
too bad they couldn't have been like Tom Perriello, who has been a true team player after the primary trying to unify the campaigns and help Dems make gains in the HOD.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 02, 2017, 08:40:54 PM
northams finished boys. without the DFA nomination no one is going to turn out to vote for him.

gillepsie wins by 12%. sucks to be a liberal in 2017!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2017, 08:45:30 PM
Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.

Pretty sure the Sanders cultists want Northam to lose so they’ll have something new to whine about.

oh come on

Gillespie is everything i hate about politics. everything. Despite my obvious annoyance for Northam and his mediocre moderate hero politics I felt this close to donating $25 to his campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2017, 08:46:53 PM
Settle down everyone. Northam is still going to win by 2-5%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on November 02, 2017, 08:48:30 PM
Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 02, 2017, 08:49:28 PM
Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on November 02, 2017, 08:50:16 PM
Settle down everyone. Northam is still going to win by 2-5%.
He might but I doubt if he was confident in his victory he would be running risky attack ads against his opponents and seemingly doing a bit of a flip flop on his policy positions.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on November 02, 2017, 08:50:41 PM
Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.

Drag him!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 02, 2017, 08:50:55 PM
Northam still going to win. VA is not a Sanders state to begin with doubt anybody will stay home because they unendorse him. But Democrats especially the Sanders wing needs to get off it high horse about the ideological purity test. I mean is DFA going to endorse Gillespie?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 02, 2017, 08:51:32 PM
Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

nobody (as in the vast majority of americans who aren't permanently following politics every second) actually knows who the hell DFA is



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: ajc0918 on November 02, 2017, 08:55:38 PM
Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 09:00:22 PM
Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.
Well there are a few reasons for my prediction
1 Ed Gillespie is an extremely good candidate to be honest his close primary possibley helped him out since he actually out reached to trump voters.
2 northam is a boring awful campaigner who’s flip flopping will probably hurt him.
3 yes republicans have over preformed the polls in off years ed by 8 in 2014
And ken by 4 in 2013.
4 the polls are WAYYYY closer then both of those races.
5 people do want OUR history to remain northam took the WRONG position on history.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2017, 09:03:02 PM
So DFA would rather have race-baiting Ed be governor and give Republicans full control over Virginia for essentially the next decade with redistricting? With Brazile desperately trying to sell books with her comments 5 days before hugely important elections and now this, it is like they are trying to lose. What a MORONIC decision by DFA.

They can still get a say in redistricting by taking the State Senate in 2019.  Clinton won 23 of the 40 seats.  In fact, this would assure a Dem say in congressional redistricting, while they would have to win VA-GOV again in 2021 to get a say through the governor.  And SCOTUS has already gotten involved for congressional and the lower house.  You can bet they would frown on a mid-decade redraw if that's what you're worried about.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 09:03:22 PM
Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

If I had to guess, they look good for Northam, but we were burned hard last year with the early vote. I really wouldn't put too much stock in it, other than turnout could be up.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on November 02, 2017, 09:05:08 PM
Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

If I had to guess, they look good for Northam, but we were burned hard last year with the early vote. I really wouldn't put too much stock in it, other than turnout could be up.

Ossoff taught us to not put too much faith into early vote numbers.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 02, 2017, 09:05:47 PM
Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.
                     13          17
State of VA   128,497   193,196
Top 5 largest increase from 13: Manassas City, Accomack County, Manassas Park City, Prince William County, Prince Edward County
Top 5 largest decrease from 13: Grayson County, Richmond County, Smyth County, Galax City, Danville City


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 09:06:40 PM
Last thing I heard about the early vote was that black turnout was down 1.2% over 2013.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2017, 09:07:49 PM
It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on November 02, 2017, 09:10:34 PM
It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.
If you look at the prediction thread you will notice mostly predictions of a  Northam victory.

Edit: I don’t think people believe Gillespie will win just that he has a decent chance too (like 40% or so). Anyway the polling is kind of been erratic meaning it’s tough to get an entirely clear picture of the race. Northram running negative attack ads and changing positions suggests that he is probably not entirely confident in his victory.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hydera on November 02, 2017, 09:12:37 PM
It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

Nobody wants to be wrong especially after last year. I do remember the same thing being said about JBE during Louisiana in '15 saying he was going to lose just barely because it was Louisiana and ended up winning comfortably.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 02, 2017, 09:21:16 PM
Holy crap are you guys annoying.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2017, 09:23:15 PM
It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

Nobody wants to be wrong especially after last year. I do remember the same thing being said about JBE during Louisiana in '15 saying he was going to lose just barely because it was Louisiana and ended up winning comfortably.

But this is more like everyone assuming a bland Republican running under a Dem president with 38% approval is going to lose a Gov race in Louisiana until the last minute.  Sure, VA is more like a Democratic Georgia than a Democratic Louisiana, but you get the idea.    


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on November 02, 2017, 09:24:14 PM
Kind of an unrelated question, but if I recall CNU has been doing a weekly tracking poll that comes out on Thursday night/Friday... does anyone know if they are going to have  a final poll this week?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 02, 2017, 09:27:44 PM
Dean has repudiated DFA's statement. (https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/926255630532382721)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 09:30:51 PM
Kind of an unrelated question, but if I recall CNU has been doing a weekly tracking poll that comes out on Thursday night/Friday... does anyone know if they are going to have  a final poll this week?

It would probably make more sense to delay that until the weekend and release it on Monday.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 09:35:17 PM
Early vote map:

()

Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source (https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-interest-2017-general-1/)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on November 02, 2017, 09:39:07 PM
I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

Gillespie by a point. And Guadagno holds Murphy to 10 point margin.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 02, 2017, 09:42:08 PM
I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

Gillespie by a point. And Guadagno holds Murphy to 10 point margin.

HAHAHA....



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 02, 2017, 09:42:54 PM
Early vote map:

()

Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source (https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-interest-2017-general-1/)

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2017, 09:44:55 PM
what i worry about is that the green areas are just burning election day democratic votes rather than being genuine upward momentum.

i really can't extrapolate from this and want to wait til election day before seeing stuff, but, ya know, here we are.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2017, 09:45:52 PM
Early vote map:

()

Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source (https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-interest-2017-general-1/)

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

There's also plenty of green in the exurbs, but when you combine the high turnout in Hampton Roads with the lower EV turnout in SW VA, this looks encouraging for Northam, if conclusions can be drawn from it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 02, 2017, 09:47:53 PM
Early vote map:

()

Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source (https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-interest-2017-general-1/)

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

There's also plenty of green in the exurbs, but when you combine the high turnout in Hampton Roads with the lower EV turnout in SW VA, this looks encouraging for Northam, if conclusions can be drawn from it.

This is a good map for Northam, reassuring.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 02, 2017, 09:53:23 PM
I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.


I disagree with your end analysis, but yeah, this last week has been hell to watch. Its like both campaigns realized that they didn't want to leave any bullets left in the chamber - so they fired them all at once.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2017, 10:00:03 PM
Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

Lmao.

Stop pretending as if you know anything about Democratic politics in Virginia. DFA is an out of state group, they aren't relevant to VA politics what so ever.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2017, 10:02:05 PM
Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

Lmao.

Stop pretending as if you know anything about Democratic politics in Virginia. DFA is a out of state group, they aren't relevant to VA politics what so ever.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Primary result: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 02, 2017, 10:09:11 PM
Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.

Pretty sure the Sanders cultists want Northam to lose so they’ll have something new to whine about.

oh come on

Gillespie is everything i hate about politics. everything. Despite my obvious annoyance for Northam and his mediocre moderate hero politics I felt this close to donating $25 to his campaign.

Sorry, that was a dumb thing to say.  I’ve been having a rough day and this mess just caused me to lash out a little.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on November 02, 2017, 10:11:33 PM
LOL this thread is peak Atlas.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 02, 2017, 10:14:18 PM
gonna put in my final guess: northam + 6


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on November 02, 2017, 10:22:00 PM
I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.


I disagree with your end analysis, but yeah, this last week has been hell to watch. Its like both campaigns realized that they didn't want to leave any bullets left in the chamber - so they fired them all at once.



I'm (a little) joking about the Murphy result, since Guadagno doesn't have the resources to be throwing up Gillespie ads in New Jersey (this race would be Lean/Likely D even without Christie), but I really am disappointed that the Guadagno campaign isn't doing anything.

Gillespie is playing a pretty solid campaign - classic Trump/Fox 2016 playbook. Repeat, repeat, harp, motivate the base, do not for a single moment let up and make sure the terms are as brutal as can be. The Northam campaign, which exists because it needs to and not for any ideological need, is prone to falling trap to these kinds of attacks. Terrible kind of electoral politics but it's one that becomes inevitable in the changing America.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2017, 10:34:38 PM
The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2017, 10:37:28 PM

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on November 02, 2017, 10:40:13 PM
The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

People seem to forget that not only did Hillary win it, she did so by more than Obama.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: IceSpear on November 02, 2017, 10:40:56 PM

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

Basically. Extreme overreaction and whiplash to every minor event.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2017, 10:42:31 PM
The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

People seem to forget that not only did Hillary win it, she did so by more than Obama.

It also seems to be forgotten that the Clinton campaign abandoned the state in August, leaving Trump pretty much uncontested on the airwaves and on the ground. To be fair, the latter was a disaster with highlights such as Trump talking about abandoned factories at a rally in Loudoun County.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 02, 2017, 10:42:34 PM
So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Update even more I why this is bad news for northam
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/amp/inside-bellwether-virginia-governor-s-race-tightens-n816631


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2017, 10:50:51 PM
()


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 02, 2017, 10:52:20 PM
Last thing I heard about the early vote was that black turnout was down 1.2% over 2013.

That sounds completely made up.  No way to make a determination on racial turnout within a few points MoE much less to decimal points.  However the increase in turnout seems to be at least as large in areas with significant black population as with the state as a whole.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2017, 10:53:16 PM

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

Basically. Extreme overreaction and whiplash to every minor event.

Whooo, what a ride.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2017, 11:05:16 PM
Quote
Dave Weigel‏
Verified account @daveweigel  36s36 seconds ago
More

Wait, so DFA never endorsed Northam - it just wanted to clarify that it hates him?

So easy to start a Dem civil war these days


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 02, 2017, 11:11:11 PM

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

Basically. Extreme overreaction and whiplash to every minor event.

Whooo, what a ride.

I don't think it's a default reaction for every race. This whole ruckus is compounded by the fact that Democrats have generally been failing as a party since 2010. While I think elections under Trump are going to be unkind to Republicans over the next two cycles, it'll obviously be a while before that materializes. Once Democrats start winning more races and rebound in raw political power, I think people will be less tense and more confident.

However Northam isn't the best candidate, and his campaign isn't the best either. It really doesn't help in the end. But we'll see. Everyone just needs to relax a little and thinking all these little things mean so much. This is like the electoral equivalent of a hangover, where you are hyper-sensitive to various stimuli after waking up.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2017, 11:28:28 PM
Quote
Dave Weigel‏
Verified account @daveweigel  36s36 seconds ago
More

Wait, so DFA never endorsed Northam - it just wanted to clarify that it hates him?

So easy to start a Dem civil war these days

What a bunch of jackasses.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Cactus Jack on November 03, 2017, 12:56:36 AM
This entire thread needs a Lexapro.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 136or142 on November 03, 2017, 03:42:54 AM
I'm not 100% sure that the Fox 'News' advertisements are such a bad thing for Northam. 
1. I've read that up to 1/3 of Fox 'News' viewers are either Democrats or are genuine independents, so reaching out to them may not be a bad idea.

2.The idea that Republicans in general, yet alone Republican Fox 'News' viewers aren't already motivated to vote for Gillespie strikes me as more than a little ridiculous.

I don't know why Democrats are so concerned with their actions motivating Republicans to vote, when the evidence is already pretty overwhelming that Republicans will turn out to vote no matter what and for no matter who.

Democrats collectively need to get their spine back and stop saying 'oh, but what if we annoy a Republican?'


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 03, 2017, 05:48:08 AM
Dean has repudiated DFA's statement. (https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/926255630532382721)

Dean is a clever man. [sarcasm]Unlike present DFA leadership, which, probably, prefers very liberal and enlightened Gillespie [/sarcasm]


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 07:53:46 AM
Trump's leaving for is long trip to Asia this morning. Means we will see no Trump events for Gillespie before Election Day.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2017, 07:55:12 AM
So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

LOL. I believe Wilder has done this with literally every Democratic nominee for Governor since he stepped down. He's about as representative of and influential among Democrats as "Democratic pollster" Pat Cadell.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2017, 07:56:38 AM
Can we lock this thread until Election Day

Don't tempt me.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 07:57:26 AM
So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

LOL. I believe Wilder has done this with literally every Democratic nominee for Governor since he stepped down. He's about as representative of and influential among Democrats as "Democratic pollster" Pat Cadell.

He did endorse Fairfax.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 08:12:00 AM
So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

LOL. I believe Wilder has done this with literally every Democratic nominee for Governor since he stepped down. He's about as representative of and influential among Democrats as "Democratic pollster" Pat Cadell.

He did endorse Fairfax.

Hmm isn’t there something Wilder and Fairfax have in common...?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2017, 08:19:03 AM

The GA-06 thread was worse, and we survived that one. :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on November 03, 2017, 11:00:38 AM
Gillespie+3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 03, 2017, 11:07:42 AM
Gillespie+3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf

>The Polling Company

I swear i'm never going to get over that name.

Anyway still Tossup/Tilt D.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 11:10:03 AM
Gillespie+3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf

I don't know why we don't count the polls with the Libertarian included.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 03, 2017, 11:14:10 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2017/virginia/election_2017_virginia_governor

Rasmussen Appears, calling the race tied, 45-45.

Weirdly, 2% saying they'd vote for "Other"



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on November 03, 2017, 11:15:18 AM
Consistent 2-3% for Hyra (local presence?) combined with decent undecideds (7% in TPC poll) = this could go either way

TPC also has undecideds split slightly for Gillespie, which given previous history, sounds good


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 03, 2017, 11:17:22 AM
Yeah now it's looking like Northam will loss


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 03, 2017, 11:18:16 AM
I'll just wait it out. Only a couple of days to go, and the hysteria here is not good for one's health.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 03, 2017, 11:32:25 AM
Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: krazen1211 on November 03, 2017, 11:35:17 AM
Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 11:39:27 AM
Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

See you on the 8th since you'll both be nowhere to be found when Northam wins next tuesday.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2017, 11:43:23 AM
Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

Quote
"Sources on both sides do not indicate that there has been much movement in this race either way for weeks"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 03, 2017, 11:49:59 AM
Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

Yup Gillespie by 10 since all Republicans win all undecideds all thebtime
Stop I never said Gillespie will win by 10 I also never said Northam could win.
Tilting republican means 55-65% chance Gillespie wins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 11:51:33 AM
Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

Quote
"Sources on both sides do not indicate that there has been much movement in this race either way for weeks"

Where is this from?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on November 03, 2017, 11:55:17 AM
This thread needs to be shot into orbit.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2017, 11:57:24 AM
Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

Quote
"Sources on both sides do not indicate that there has been much movement in this race either way for weeks"

Where is this from?

It is from Kondik and Skelley from UVA Center of Politics. This race reminds me a bit of the 2012 presidential election, in which there was a ton of noise coming from both GOP hacks and concerning trolling liberals, but the race for the most part was fairly stable from start to finish.

Quote
Solid point from @kkondik and @geoffreyvs about #VAGov: For all the noise, there's been little polling movement. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/signs-and-portents/ …      


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 03, 2017, 12:02:29 PM
Good god, if Dems blow this one....


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 12:08:51 PM
5 poll average (As is usually done with averages, I am only counting one poll per company - so the older polling company poll has been eliminated, and BRD remains in the average even though it is technically poll #6. In response to some comments, I will use the three-way numbers for all companies.):

Rasmussen - TIE
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5
BRD - N+6

Average - N +2.6

Northam still has the edge, but I'd put Gillespie's chances at like 40%. Still barely Lean D.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on November 03, 2017, 12:12:08 PM
To be honest, I fully expect Democrats to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Northam is still a mild favorite, but Gillespie easily has a ~40% chance of winning now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 03, 2017, 12:13:25 PM
5 poll average (As is usually done with averages, I am only counting one poll per company - so the older polling company poll has been eliminated, and BRD remains in the average even though it is technically poll #6. In response to some comments, I will use the three-way numbers for all companies.):

Rasmussen - TIE
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5
BRD - N+6

Average - N +2.6

Northam still has the edge, but I'd put Gillespie's chances at like 40%. Still barely Lean D.



If thats the margin the race has become a tossup


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on November 03, 2017, 12:14:02 PM
Sorry snowflakes this race is

T I T A N I U M

R


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 12:17:38 PM
Can it be Tuesday already. This race has reminded me how much of an unhealthy relationship I have with politics.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 03, 2017, 12:18:57 PM
http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 12:22:41 PM
http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Plus it's landline only


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Person Man on November 03, 2017, 12:25:26 PM


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 03, 2017, 12:28:12 PM
I see the gop hack polling firm effect is in full swing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2017, 12:29:25 PM
I see the gop hack polling firm effect is in full swing.

Never fails.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 03, 2017, 12:29:57 PM
This thread needs to be shot into orbit.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gustaf on November 03, 2017, 12:33:17 PM
So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 03, 2017, 12:40:28 PM
Charlottesville Daily Progress endorses Gillespie
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/926494718283911168


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 12:44:18 PM
5 poll average (As is usually done with averages, I am only counting one poll per company - so the older polling company poll has been eliminated, and BRD remains in the average even though it is technically poll #6. In response to some comments, I will use the three-way numbers for all companies.):

Rasmussen - TIE
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5
BRD - N+6

Average - N +2.6

Northam still has the edge, but I'd put Gillespie's chances at like 40%. Still barely Lean D.


Three way for TPC (Toilet Paper Company) has a tie

That's the old poll. See their new poll: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/VA_TPC_Topline_Oct_30-Nov_2.pdf


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Jeppe on November 03, 2017, 12:44:41 PM
Would be hilarious if Northam ended up winning with a double digit margin of victory, like Quinnipiac predicted.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 12:51:18 PM
So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

Yup ya missed how Gillespie gonna win 63-37 now an win fairfax county now cuz all undecideds go Republican

------/
Sorry, feel free to ban me for trolling too hard

The people you’re trolling deserve to be trolled


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Deblano on November 03, 2017, 01:14:03 PM
Can we lock this thread until Election Day

I did not expect the thread that I started a year ago to go off the rails into hysteria-town.

I'm....honored? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 03, 2017, 01:20:09 PM
So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

Yup ya missed how Gillespie gonna win 63-37 now an win fairfax county now cuz all undecideds go Republican

------/
Sorry, feel free to ban me for trolling too hard

The people you’re trolling deserve to be trolled
When did I ever troll this thread?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 03, 2017, 01:20:56 PM
Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 03, 2017, 01:30:31 PM
Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.


Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2017, 01:45:12 PM
Welcome back, BigSkyBob!

If The Vorlon returns, the thread will be complete.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 03, 2017, 01:50:39 PM
@PNM: Yeah, we get it. You think Democrats will win every statewide race easily. No need to spam the entire board with this nonsense or to ridicule any prediction that doesn't show him winning by at least 5. You'd think after 2016 people would have learned this, but apparently not.

Anyway, Northam, Fairfax and especially Herring should all win, though I'm really not sure what the margins will be.

The pollsters aren't sure either.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: erſatz-york on November 03, 2017, 01:50:45 PM
http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.



Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 03, 2017, 01:55:24 PM
@PNM: Yeah, we get it. You think Democrats will win every statewide race easily. No need to spam the entire board with this nonsense or to ridicule any prediction that doesn't show him winning by at least 5. You'd think after 2016 people would have learned this, but apparently not.

Anyway, Northam, Fairfax and especially Herring should all win, though I'm really not sure what the margins will be.

Nah man all this stuff is a game changer and Northam is a child rapist and now this race is safer R than NH is for climbin' Hassan

Climbin' Maggie*

GET YER MEME RIGHT


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 02:00:42 PM
http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.


So Gillespie is going to win 40-37?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 03, 2017, 02:03:45 PM
Ok guys I think its fair to say we've all got our licks in, trolling-wise. Let's at least try to keep the discussion amicable and semi-serious.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2017, 02:04:09 PM
Didn't Utter Panic and Doom break up during the late 80's?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 02:09:19 PM
http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.



Optimus also lists an alternative metric:
Quote
If turnout reflects 2016 levels, instead of assuming a 2013-like composition, then we have Northam winning by +1.5.

I will use that to avoid a calculation too favorable to Gillespie.

New Average:

Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5

Average - N +1.7

This is less than half of the 2013 polling error. Northam should be scared. It is just barely below the 2% danger line, so I'll wait to see if we get another poll by Monday before considering a rating adjustment.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on November 03, 2017, 02:12:01 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2017, 02:12:46 PM

Yeah, it really doesn't help that polling is all over the place. Based on the election fundamentals and the heavy Democratic lean of the state (the latter seems to be an extremely underrated factor for some reason), I have a hard time believing that Gillespie can make it closer than 2, though. Northam winning by 2-2.5 is my current guess, and even that is probably fairly generous to Rs given that we're talking about an off-year election in VA here and the Democratic base is energized. Northam winning by more than 7 or Gillespie eking out a victory are the only two possible outcomes that would really surprise me.

I think this has been posted recently, but its a really good article explaining the vast differences in polling.

Article (https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/31/virginia-governors-polling-northam-gillespie-244362)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: swf541 on November 03, 2017, 02:23:03 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 02:27:53 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

If another nationally respected pollster comes in and backs up The Polling Company, Optimus and Rasmussen then I'd more more willing to agree that the race is getting close. But the last two decent polls we got were from Suffolk and the Washington Post, both showing Northam up by mid single digits so forgive me for trusting them over Rasmussen.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 03, 2017, 02:30:46 PM
Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate. (https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/03/democrats-dream-candidate-struggles-rural-voters-244527)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2017, 02:33:41 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

Wason Center (CNU) is supposed to have one out today or tomorrow, but I've been watching for it and haven't seen it yet.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 03, 2017, 02:36:21 PM
The only polls that have Gillespie leading are owned by one of Trump's "staffers" or a company no one has ever heard of. That should tell you everything you need to know about the race.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Gustaf on November 03, 2017, 02:39:20 PM
Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate. (https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/03/democrats-dream-candidate-struggles-rural-voters-244527)

I mean, the actual story in that article is surely Northam running 15 points better than Clinton in rural Virginia. That seems like a huge thing if it's true. Then again, it's internal polling so I'm inclined to distrust it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 03, 2017, 02:42:18 PM
FWIW, Roanoke has a 47/47 tie. Previous one was 50/44 Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: uti2 on November 03, 2017, 02:46:08 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Gillespie would never have run his current style of campaign without Trump. His earlier campaigns are radically different from this one.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 02:47:53 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Honestly Gillespie could probably win by more than that had Clinton won


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 02:51:15 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 02:52:20 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 02:55:31 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on November 03, 2017, 02:56:14 PM
https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_nov_2017

47/47, Gillespie leading by high single digits among independents. Sample seems fairly consistent with national polls on a trump approval (36/53).

Much worse poll for Northam than previous ones, honestly. If 'independents' are still breaking towards Republicans in Virginia regardless of disliking Trump and Northam started with a smaller lead than Warner or Clinton this could be bad for him.

Still think Northam pulls it out in the end but I actually think there is a strong chance Gillespie wins if the election were held today. We will see whether the final news cycle of the race brings anything interesting with it - I'll bet Northam can't really decline any further among independents without a serious gaffe, so if he can just right the ship and close with a positive message I'll be the gets back just enough support to win in a state that should not be this close and should never have been close.

I thought Northam was the stronger candidate in the primary, but I'm having my doubts now. I wonder if his saying he will sign a sanctuary cities ban bill might actually help him among independents - I doubt many sanctuary citiy supporters would vote for someone else anyway, and it might end up being a now tactical ploy to blunt one of Gillespie's strongest and most-founded attack lines in the lead up to the election. Could also backfire in base turnout of course, but we will see.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: uti2 on November 03, 2017, 02:58:11 PM
I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Honestly Gillespie could probably win by more than that had Clinton won

Gillespie would be running a different strategy. How did he do under an Obama presidency?

If you want to make the argument about presidential approval ratings, clearly it doesn't matter when you look at Trump's.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 03, 2017, 03:01:22 PM
Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll, who looks stupid now LOL.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 03:01:31 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 03:02:07 PM
Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

I mean, you right now since the election hasn't happend.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2017, 03:02:08 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

A colleague of mine lives in Virginia, and I asked him the other day who was going to win.  He responded "I don't know, but either way Virginia is going to lose."


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 03, 2017, 03:02:46 PM
Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

Go back to playing Battlefront.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2017, 03:03:06 PM
Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

Punctuation would help, unless you actually meant "a troll who looks stupid." :)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 03, 2017, 03:05:51 PM
Lordy, can everyone take a chill pill. Northam is still going to win and y'all just overreact too much.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 03, 2017, 03:06:22 PM
Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

I mean, you right now since the election hasn't happend.
I know that I have been saying that there would be a surge to Gillespie and that’s a 3 point race in both directions.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2017, 03:06:35 PM
Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate. (https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/03/democrats-dream-candidate-struggles-rural-voters-244527)

I mean, the actual story in that article is surely Northam running 15 points better than Clinton in rural Virginia. That seems like a huge thing if it's true. Then again, it's internal polling so I'm inclined to distrust it.

Yeah, if those internals are true then Ed is already DOA.

Take it with a grain of salt, but early voting numbers in NOVA look to be good for Northam and Ed can only offset such a decline in rural areas if he is exceeding his 2014 numbers in NOVA.

Hell, Northam could lose all the undecided voters in this scenario and still win by 4-5 points.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 03:10:37 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 03:13:00 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Yeah, I get that. Its just frustrating the quality of pollsters thats taking up all the oxygen.  Theres nothing wrong with wanting a nationally respected pollster to confirm what the iffy pollsters are saying.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 03:15:24 PM
Nate Cohn seems to be implying we'll be getting a Sienna poll at some point. That would be nice if true.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 03:17:37 PM
Lordy, can everyone take a chill pill. Northam is still going to win and y'all just overreact too much.

Everyone, BD of all people is being the voice of reason and I think it would behoove everyone to heed his advice


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 03, 2017, 03:31:08 PM
Alright the pollster who got the democrats freaked out is releasing there final poll on Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/926541687324860418?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on November 03, 2017, 03:45:49 PM
Alright the pollster who got the democrats freaked out is releasing there final poll on Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/926541687324860418?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

My guess: Northam +5

If it is Northam +5, I think his supporters should be pretty confident going into election day.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 03, 2017, 03:46:53 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 03, 2017, 04:48:28 PM
Polls are all over the place but I'm gonna guess +6 Northam


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2017, 04:50:37 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

Did you even read the clarifying sentence I put after that:


2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Quinnipiac falls into the same "ridiculously impractical" category Hampton does.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 05:28:05 PM
Polls are all over the place but I'm gonna guess +6 Northam

I’m a little more bearish. I’ve figured Dr. Ralph +4 for some time.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 03, 2017, 05:43:40 PM
With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

Did you even read the clarifying sentence I put after that:


2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Quinnipiac falls into the same "ridiculously impractical" category Hampton does.

Excluding such polls is the antithesis of how polling averages are supposed to work.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 03, 2017, 05:45:17 PM
The same guy who ran Hick’s 2014 campaign is running Northam’s. Hmm


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mike Thick on November 03, 2017, 05:50:27 PM
On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 03, 2017, 05:52:11 PM
On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 03, 2017, 05:56:01 PM
On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It will be Brownback 2.0, has anyone seen his asinine tax plan?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 03, 2017, 05:56:19 PM
Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.


Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 03, 2017, 06:09:43 PM
Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.


Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.

Dozens of other states have felon restoration after time served and yes including sex offenders. And there is no issue, Gillespie himself supported felon restoration until he realized it was an issue he could exploit. This is why we will never have criminal justice reform and continue to have overcrowded prisons.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mike Thick on November 03, 2017, 06:14:19 PM
On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: krazen1211 on November 03, 2017, 06:14:59 PM
The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 03, 2017, 06:21:56 PM
The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

Democrats would deserve it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 03, 2017, 06:22:52 PM
On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

There could be a chance to take back the state Senate in 2019, and if Northam wins the GOP would just kick the can to 2022 in hopes for a Republican Gov. They could literally wait until April 2022 to draw the maps. So Ds have three hurdles to get fair maps win in 2017, win in 2021, or flip one of the chambers.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 03, 2017, 06:28:49 PM
On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

There could be a chance to take back the state Senate in 2019, and if Northam wins the GOP would just kick the can to 2022 in hopes for a Republican Gov. They could literally wait until April 2022 to draw the maps. So Ds have three hurdles to get fair maps win in 2017, win in 2021, or flip one of the chambers.

On the flip side, if Northam wins, and Dems make reasonable strides in the HoD, there is a very good chance of a D trifecta in 2021. So what happens in 4 days arguably determines what tge maps could look like in 4 years.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 03, 2017, 06:39:32 PM
Obama should do multiple rallies in NOVA & Hampton Roads on Monday.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: DrScholl on November 03, 2017, 06:43:06 PM
The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

Northam wouldn't sign off on that, so no.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 03, 2017, 06:57:03 PM
This is embarrassing that it is even close


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 03, 2017, 07:01:55 PM
Well if Northam lost at least we have a reason. Party infighting! I'll give GOP one thing at least all the fight ends when the General election starts.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Northam vs Gillespie (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 03, 2017, 07:04:12 PM
Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.


Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.

Dozens of other states have felon restoration after time served and yes including sex offenders. And there is no issue, Gillespie himself supported felon restoration until he realized it was an issue he could exploit. This is why we will never have criminal justice reform and continue to have overcrowded prisons.

1) There might very well be an issue.

2) To the extent there is an issue in those states, it is with past legislatures for passing the legislation resulting in the current situation, and the current legislature for not doing anything about it.

3) Virginia is not one of those commonwealths.

4) The issue in Virginia is that McAuliffe restored the voting rights, as a matter of gubernatorial
discretion, to a felon who was under indictment for possessing child pornography.

5) McAuliffe is accountable to the people of Virginia for his official acts as Governor.

6) Why don't you show the courage of your apparent convictions by praising McAuliffe for restoring the voting rights of John Bowen?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: UncleSam on November 03, 2017, 07:05:31 PM
Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 03, 2017, 07:43:03 PM
a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 03, 2017, 07:49:27 PM
Crazy how people view a former lobbyist as more 'patriotic' and 'American' than a former Army doctor. Nobody talked about MS-13 before the election now its apparently a #1 issue, seems like Ebola we'll probably never hear about it again until the next election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 03, 2017, 07:50:18 PM
a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.
Party of white identity politics smh


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 03, 2017, 07:56:55 PM
a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

You had me until the "talked with a few neighbors" part.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Suburbia on November 03, 2017, 08:15:05 PM
I wonder who a black Gillespie voter would be....


Title: VA-GOV 2017: Describe a African-American Gillespie voter
Post by: Suburbia on November 03, 2017, 08:16:04 PM
Describe a Ed Gillespie for 2017 VA Governor African-American voter in Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Describe a African-American Gillespie voter
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 03, 2017, 08:18:55 PM
EW Jackson


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Describe a African-American Gillespie voter
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 03, 2017, 09:05:05 PM
Describe a Ed Gillespie for 2017 VA Governor African-American voter in Virginia.

A black man, or black women, who casts his or her ballot for Ed Gillespie.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Describe a African-American Gillespie voter
Post by: Suburbia on November 03, 2017, 09:06:32 PM
Describe a Ed Gillespie for 2017 VA Governor African-American voter in Virginia.

A black man, or black women, who casts his or her ballot for Ed Gillespie.

Some black Virginia voters aren't so enamored with Northam either, I wonder if they will stay home due to the Fairfax issue.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 03, 2017, 09:10:36 PM
a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.
What county? Loudon?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Describe a African-American Gillespie voter
Post by: heatcharger on November 03, 2017, 09:23:39 PM
No more identity politics. It's sad. Just let me ask the forum how every ethnic group ever known will vote.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on November 03, 2017, 09:55:45 PM
If Gillespie manages to win this -- and the right-wing media manages to frame this as a success for a non-Trump model of white identity politics -- then it'll be a powerful message to moderates like Flake that the party is changing direction.

Not that Gillespie's history matters. If anything it'll mean he's a more effective and on-task governor than Trump is as President.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hydera on November 03, 2017, 10:12:20 PM
Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.


Republicans who hate their nominee will hold their nose and vote for them in an election.

Democrats who hate their nominee will either vote for a third party, or for trump or stay home.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 03, 2017, 10:25:47 PM
Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.


Republicans who hate their nominee will hold their nose and vote for them in an election.

Democrats who hate their nominee will either vote for a third party, or for trump or stay home.
This! If you look at other Western countries you see that the left is divided in multiples different parties but the right wing is usually bounded to 1 and sometimes 2 parties.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 03, 2017, 10:41:37 PM
According to elect project, early voting is pointing to a narrow Ralph win


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 10:42:41 PM
According to elect project, early voting is pointing to a narrow Ralph win

VA has limited early voting tho so probably hard to Tea Leaf there


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 03, 2017, 10:52:11 PM
According to elect project, early voting is pointing to a narrow Ralph win

VA has limited early voting tho so probably hard to Tea Leaf there
He does mention this in his thread his basis is area of were EV is coming from and NoVa is ahead of were it was in 2013 while the rural areas Ed needs are about the same or lagging behind the 2013 returns


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on November 03, 2017, 11:14:47 PM
Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMpKbQULZZ0


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 03, 2017, 11:27:48 PM
Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMpKbQULZZ0
You know for the crap Ralph gets Ed is just running a white grievance campagin thatbis so blatant it's should almost be insulting to the people he is courting


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 03, 2017, 11:42:59 PM
Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMpKbQULZZ0

What a ridiculously superficial ad. It's sad, really

According to elect project, early voting is pointing to a narrow Ralph win

VA has limited early voting tho so probably hard to Tea Leaf there
He does mention this in his thread his basis is area of were EV is coming from and NoVa is ahead of were it was in 2013 while the rural areas Ed needs are about the same or lagging behind the 2013 returns

Reverse MI 2016?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Pericles on November 03, 2017, 11:57:13 PM
If voters think Confederate statues and non-existent sanctuary cities are the most important issues they are idiots. This election is just embarrassing at this point.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Matty on November 04, 2017, 12:04:55 AM
According to elect project, early voting is pointing to a narrow Ralph win

Early voting is (almost) completely irrelevant in virginia.

I think Northam wins by 3-5, but early voting really isn't a thing here.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on November 04, 2017, 01:39:51 AM
Well if Northam lost at least we have a reason. Party infighting! I'll give GOP one thing at least all the fight ends when the General election starts.

Yes, blame the leftists and not, y'know, Northam's wet fart of a campaign.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2017, 01:42:54 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2017, 02:03:18 AM
I've never heard of MS-13 until I heard GOP candidates screaming about. Are they not a big gang in Oklahoma?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 02:20:53 AM
I've never heard of MS-13 until I heard GOP candidates screaming about. Are they not a big gang in Oklahoma?
From what I know they live in nice areas and sell drugs in poor areas,actually Northern Virginia and Long Island have a really bad MS 13 issue.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 04, 2017, 02:31:31 AM
Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMpKbQULZZ0

That was incredible. I hereby retract my Northam endorsement. I simply can't support him if this is a referendum on this matter now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 04, 2017, 02:31:48 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

You clearly don't know what you're talking about if you think a non-incumbent Democrat can (let alone should) win Virginia by double digits in a still fairly racially polarized state. and if you think tthose two scenarios above are the only scenarios that are plausible, then you probably shouldn't even be commenting about politics at all.


Logically, the only other scenario  (except 1 and 2) is Northam winning by more then 3%. But is it likely now???


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 04, 2017, 02:37:28 AM
I've never heard of MS-13 until I heard GOP candidates screaming about. Are they not a big gang in Oklahoma?

I first heard it discussed as a NOVA problem, in 2005.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 04, 2017, 03:13:39 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

You clearly don't know what you're talking about if you think a non-incumbent Democrat can (let alone should) win Virginia by double digits in a still fairly racially polarized state. and if you think tthose two scenarios above are the only scenarios that are plausible, then you probably shouldn't even be commenting about politics at all.


Logically, the only other scenario  (except 1 and 2) is Northam winning by more then 3%. But is it likely now???

Uh, just as likely as Gillespie winning, yes. Last I checked, Northam still had a small 2 point lead in RCP.

Though frankly if Northam loses this race, Democrats might as well just give Republicans total power in the country. If old geezers want to scream and vote based on culture wars (Confederate statues, Colin Kaepernick, and MS-13, none of which these Republicans will do anything about once elected) so be it. I'll feel no sympathy for them when they lose all their benefits and are boned by whatever austerity measures are passed. In fact, I'll probably be one of the biggest cheerleaders for it.

I understand your feelings, but if that's their priorities - what could be done about it?  Essentially - nothing. I am 60 years old myself and, while being socially liberal, easily understand that social changes of last decades are a sort of Armageddon for many in my (and older) generation. Believe me, 40 years ago almost no one not only couldn't imagine single-sex marriages, but, for 90% of this generation, the very fact of such relations between 2 persons was no less then atrocious. And "Confederation monuments" for almost all Southerners of this generation are as sacral as Jesus himself. After all - Virginia was a Condederate state, wasn't it???  AFAIK American South - it could be populist on economics, but never (or almost never at least) on social issues, and this, in addition to greater reliance of Democratic party on Blacks and other minority voters, was the main reason of "great white exodus" to Republican party, which reflects these feeligs much better now.  And if young people are so apathetic (in some cases - ignorant) about elections and their meaning  - well, let them live with that too. They utterly deserve it. May be - that will finally teach them a lesson, and 10 years from now they will raise their asses from chairs and finally go to the polls.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 04, 2017, 03:37:45 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 04, 2017, 03:39:57 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.

You think an ardent ultraprogressive would surely win Governor race in Virginia? May be even in South Carolina and Alabama too? These states are not California.

P.S. I don't see a very progressive Fairfax doing much better in polls then Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2017, 03:43:53 AM
Beet's analysis of VA-Gov, greatest hits:

I think I'll be really sad when this guy loses due to be outspent by Northam. If you're in Virginia guys vote Perriello. Please!

Don't be surprised if Gillespie narrowly wins in November.

You be the judge. Am I the smartest one here when it comes to American politics, or what? Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh. Badabing Badaboom, baby.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hydera on November 04, 2017, 06:03:27 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.

You think an ardent ultraprogressive would surely win Governor race in Virginia? May be even in South Carolina and Alabama too? These states are not California.

P.S. I don't see a very progressive Fairfax doing much better in polls then Northam.


Berniebro theory of politics: Always run a progressive in every race and if they fail who cares at least you get to complain because being a berniebro complaining is just as good as governing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 04, 2017, 06:05:34 AM
Beet's analysis of VA-Gov, greatest hits:

I think I'll be really sad when this guy loses due to be outspent by Northam. If you're in Virginia guys vote Perriello. Please!

Don't be surprised if Gillespie narrowly wins in November.

You be the judge. Am I the smartest one here when it comes to American politics, or what? Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh. Badabing Badaboom, baby.

We’re all so impressed that you made two claims that were/are both essentially plausible and we’re totally not mentioned by anyone else but you.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 04, 2017, 06:10:59 AM
At this point, it's pretty clear we're in one of the below scenarios:

1. Northam is begging and pleading to Fairfax County throughout the count to boost him over the top, and wins by <3%.
2. Gillespie wins.

Both are bad for the democratic party. In a Clinton +5 state, and with Trump in mid 30s approvals, they should be winning by double digits. The party needs to do some serious soul-searching no matter who wins.

The party needed to do some serious soul searching long before they nominated this Bush supporter.

You think an ardent ultraprogressive would surely win Governor race in Virginia? May be even in South Carolina and Alabama too? These states are not California.

P.S. I don't see a very progressive Fairfax doing much better in polls then Northam.


Berniebro theory of politics: Always run a progressive in every race and if they fail who cares at least you get to complain because being a berniebro complaining is just as good as governing.

Exactly. An idiocy of highest caliber. That's why i dislike the radical BernieBro's almost as much as alt-right. 2 sides of one medal....


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2017, 07:41:51 AM
It's strange that people are now accepting their accolades three days before Election Day.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on November 04, 2017, 08:00:11 AM
All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. This is my final prediction.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on November 04, 2017, 08:11:19 AM
My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2017, 08:12:04 AM
My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 04, 2017, 09:55:29 AM
My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

This is a really reasonble prediction


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 04, 2017, 09:59:50 AM
My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

My: + 2 - Northam, +3-4 - Herring and very close (about +1-2) - Fairfax. And i agree about HoD...


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2017, 10:14:49 AM
Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2017, 10:20:39 AM
Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.


I'm fairly sure that both CNU and Monmouth will have one more poll.

EDIT: Monmouth's is coming Monday.  I thought CNU would be out today, or maybe even yesterday, but can't find confirmation of this.  UPDATE: Upshot/Siena will be out at 8am tomorrow.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2017, 10:35:29 AM
Long thread on early voting from Michael McDonald: https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/926592078280318977 (https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/926592078280318977).  Some excerpts:

Quote
Virginia #earlyvote update: 147,148 voted as of 11/3. Surpassed 2013 non-presidential record of 121,359. One more day of in-person early voting to go, with some mail ballots still outstanding, too
Quote
Manassas City has the largest early vote increase over 2013 of any Virginia locality: 428 in 2013/860 in 2017, or +201%. This city among the largest Latino communities in Virginia
Quote
Roanoke County has lowest early vote in Virginia compared to 2013: 2,219 in 2013/1, 487 in 2017 or only 67% of 2013 total.  Cuccinelli won this county with 58% of the vote in 2013
Quote
Of the 25 Virginia localities that have not reached their 2013 early vote total, Cuccinelli won 17, McAulliffe won 8. All are outside Northern Virginia
Quote
I expect a higher percentage of the vote cast early in 2017 than in 2013, with the increase primarily coming from Dem areas. Perennial questions: are Dems more engaged than Reps? Are Dems doing more early vote mobilization? Are they cannibalizing Election Day?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 04, 2017, 11:22:33 AM
Cohn says Upshot will have a Siena poll 8 AM tomorrow.  (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/926843299264163842)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 11:29:21 AM
If I were Northam, I would be way more worried about that idiotic 3rd party ad (it could have singlehandedly given Gillespie Trump's rural margins) than I would be about DFA and the 2016 primary stuff.  Sanders got 35% in VA and DFA is now a fringe group obsessed with identity politics and he might actually be better off having them publicly oppose him.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 04, 2017, 11:34:06 AM
If I were Northam, I would be way more worried about that idiotic 3rd party ad (it could have singlehandedly given Gillespie Trump's rural margins) than I would be about DFA and the 2016 primary stuff.  Sanders got 35% in VA and DFA is now a fringe group obsessed with identity politics and he might actually be better off having them publicly oppose him.

Northam should have just stood by that ad the same way Saxby Chambliss did in 2002 when Republicans ran an ad saying that Max Cleland was just like Osama Bin Laden for supporting civil service protection for Dept of Homeland Security employees.  Democrats need to stop apologizing for attacking Republicans for who they are. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 11:39:06 AM
The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2017, 11:47:00 AM
The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 11:53:57 AM
The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

The EC itself couldn't be, but statewide WTA allocation could conceivably be held unconstitutional on 14th Amendment grounds (think Reynolds v. Sims, have to have approx. equal # of people per EV) or even 15th Amendment grounds (e.g. Hispanic voters packed into CA/TX and systematically underrepresented).  Look at the Warren court precedents on state-level elections.  It would probably require a similarly liberal Court, but it's certainly possible.  And if they held that the EC had to be allocated by CD or by equal size EC districts in each state, well, such a court would probably also be in the business of aggressively policing gerrymandering.

It's also worth noting that if there was Dem trifecta control of the federal government and states with 270+ EV, they wouldn't even need to get the courts involved, because the states could put NPVIC into effect and Congress could vote to explicitly authorize it, which would kill the likely Article I legal challenge.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 04, 2017, 12:03:36 PM
How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

NPVIC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact). It's not what he was talking about with court rulings, but it's perfectly possible to do an end-run around the electoral college, given that states are allowed to hand out their votes as they please. I'd also note that there are more than enough states that allow ballot initiatives or are otherwise already signed on to this to get the EV count past 270.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 12:08:52 PM
How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

NPVIC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact). It's not what he was talking about with court rulings, but it's perfectly possible to do an end-run around the electoral college, given that states are allowed to hand out their votes as they please. I'd also note that there are more than enough states that allow ballot initiatives or are otherwise already signed on to this to get the EV count past 270.

Yes, this is the only way it is going to happen in our lifetimes absent a very left wing SCOTUS (which will probably have to be packed if it is going to happen prior to ~2040).  And the precedent of court packing would take us down a very dark road (you could argue that the Garland situation was court packing, but there were at least 19th century precedents for that with Andrew Johnson and Zachary Taylor).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 12:35:22 PM
Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled I mean you PNM and anyone else who said I was a Gillespie troll just look.
Northam is falling #ready4edy


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2017, 12:38:36 PM
Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled look who is is right.

It's a little early to be claiming victory.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 12:41:31 PM
Real clear politics has northam up only 1.2 points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html#polls

Look who is right after being made fun of trolled look who is is right.

It's a little early to be claiming victory.
I know but considering that just 3 weeks ago northam was going to win by 4-11 points according to most people on here now were not even sure if he will win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Kamala on November 04, 2017, 12:45:05 PM
Gillespie is winning because even after the round of garbage-tier polling, Northam is still ahead in an average?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 12:53:35 PM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2005
That was 12 years ago back when confederate monuments and MS-13 were not issues.
Also Gillespie is going to probably close to or all southwest Virginia and most countys in central Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2017, 12:53:40 PM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2005

People aren't talking about this race enough... sure it was 12 years ago but it had similar dynamics.
  • Unpopular Republican president
  • Moderate, uncharismatic democratic candidate
  • Close polling in the end


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2017, 12:54:26 PM
Lol at our dual posts, Greedo.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 01:04:04 PM
So people are hinting that’s it’s easier for Gillespie to win then northam.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/926871117100396550


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 04, 2017, 01:17:31 PM
So people are hinting that’s it’s easier for Gillespie to win then northam.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/926871117100396550

I would like to see the rationale for doubling the number of people 65+. I get the idea of reducing black turnout, as it did drop nationally by a lot in 2016 (though I must note that it didn't drop at all in Virginia, and in fact went up iirc), but I don't understand why there would be so many more old people and even less young people.

Anyway, if that is what the electorate did in fact end up looking like, it would mean Gillespie has it easy compared to Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 04, 2017, 01:29:29 PM
People take exits at face value while Cohn has argued extensively that they are somewhat off. I remember him saying 2013 was actually 71-14 W/B and not the 21% the exits showed.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 04, 2017, 01:55:54 PM
People take exits at face value while Cohn has argued extensively that they are somewhat off. I remember him saying 2013 was actually 71-14 W/B and not the 21% the exits showed.

Fair enough. I was aware of Cohn's big article on how there are more white voters than we think, but I wasn't privy to his numbers for the black share of the VA electorate.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2017, 02:59:55 PM
Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 03:11:48 PM
Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5
Well it’s official this race is tied northam is up 1.2 on RCP you have him up 1.5 but regardless this is going to be a razor thin margin either way.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 03:23:17 PM
Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5
Well it’s official this race is tied northam is up 1.2 on RCP you have him up 1.5 but regardless this is going to be a razor thin margin either way.

That's because RCP doesn't have Gravis yet, and that was surprisingly Northam's best poll of the week.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 04, 2017, 03:24:46 PM
Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Trafalgar is literally a Republican polling firm.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: henster on November 04, 2017, 03:27:36 PM
Trafalgar has Gillespie beating Northam 65-23 with 18-25 voters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 04, 2017, 03:28:12 PM
Trafalgar has Gillespie beating Northam 65-23 with 18-25 voters.

Must be a typo


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2017, 03:28:24 PM
Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Trafalgar is literally a Republican polling firm.
With an extraordinarily good record anywhere but NV.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2017, 03:32:33 PM
0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 03:35:38 PM
0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8
Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hydera on November 04, 2017, 03:36:05 PM
0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8


I hope being out of the white house means the dem gets a mid-term bonus and pushes that to 5% on election day. Otherwise had it been +2.8 in '13 VA election then the republicans would had won that by 1.5%.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 04, 2017, 03:37:17 PM
0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8
Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

You are the most adorable poster on this forum right now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2017, 03:38:50 PM
0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8
Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

Well if you removed that poll, the most recent one before that is Quinnipiac's N+17, bringing the average to N+5.2. Take your pick.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 03:44:31 PM
0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8
Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

Well if you removed that poll, the most recent one before that is Quinnipiac's N+17, bringing the average to N+5.2. Take your pick.
Or we can put in the polling company poll ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Fudotei on November 04, 2017, 03:59:03 PM
Important thing to note is the vote share -- Northam has been close to 50% but not quite there while Gillespie was flinging around in the mid to low 40s. Trafalgar has him at 48% (and down 1 still) meaning he's probably getting the edge on Hyra/undecided voters. Could go down to the wire


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on November 04, 2017, 04:05:44 PM
If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hydera on November 04, 2017, 04:09:08 PM
If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

Perriello has so much enthusiasm he lost the primary.

If Perriello was the candidate he'd suffer the same polling convergence when Gillespie released the MS-13 ad, as well as LVF releasing that dumb ad in response, driving up enthusiasm amongst rural/suburbanite republicans.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2017, 04:11:48 PM
If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

It would be nice if people knew what they were talking about before commenting about this election.

Northam winning had nothing to do with being next in line. He won because he built up years of support with AA voters in the state, that was the biggest reason why he beat Perriello.
 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 2016 on November 04, 2017, 04:17:53 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Cactus Jack on November 04, 2017, 04:22:32 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?

Basically, it's come down to Northam turning out to be a fairly awful candidate and Gillespie proving, once again, that he's the ultimate political operator. The latter has run circles around the former in message and advertising, even while spelunking in the moral gutter.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Duke of York on November 04, 2017, 04:23:08 PM
If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

It would be nice if people knew what they were talking about before commenting about this election.

Northam winning had nothing to do with being next in line. He won because he built up years of support with AA voters in the state, that was the biggest reason why he beat Perriello.
 
Hopefully they turn out on Tuesday and put him and Fairfax over the finish line.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Hydera on November 04, 2017, 04:23:19 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?



Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist. By releasing an ad about MS-13. This got republican voters fired up. At the same time the democratic base being the democratic base is still bad with off year turnout and isnt getting enough votes in return to counter a surge amongst republican voters.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: JJC on November 04, 2017, 05:24:15 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?



Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: JonHawk on November 04, 2017, 05:25:52 PM
I sense a Gillespie upset here. It will be pretty close though. Come on Ed!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Cactus Jack on November 04, 2017, 05:27:45 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?



Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

what the f**k kind of tone-deaf self-pitying bulls**t did i just read


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 04, 2017, 05:33:04 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudoun County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2017, 05:56:56 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BundouYMB on November 04, 2017, 06:02:18 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?



Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

Opposing racism is racism! Great hot take.

I guess it's impossible to be a Republican nowadays though without thinking up is down and left is right.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2017, 06:05:46 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign on in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

I say this seriously, thank you both for taking part directly for your respective campaigns. It's wuite admirable that each of you feel that passionately about your caniddates and that's what makes America great. I always feel bad for the workers on a losing campaign who gave so much of their own time, often with little reward.

Thanks.

What if Northam lost by a few hundred votes? It's happened before (MN 2008, FL 2000). In that case, I would never forgive myself for not canvassing and helping, when I could've made a tangible difference. That's why I work for the candidates I like, even if they stumble in their campaigns and polling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Sestak on November 04, 2017, 06:09:16 PM
Personally, I'm not willing to start digging Northam's grave while Trafalgar still has him up. Republican or not, their record has been remarkably good these last 12 months.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 04, 2017, 06:10:40 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.
Thank you for correcting my spelling error.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 04, 2017, 06:17:22 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign on in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.

I say this seriously, thank you both for taking part directly for your respective campaigns. It's wuite admirable that each of you feel that passionately about your caniddates and that's what makes America great. I always feel bad for the workers on a losing campaign who gave so much of their own time, often with little reward.

Thanks.

What if Northam lost by a few hundred votes? It's happened before (MN 2008, FL 2000). In that case, I would never forgive myself for not canvassing and helping, when I could've made a tangible difference. That's why I work for the candidates I like, even if they stumble in their campaigns and polling.

Honestly, there’s only so much you can do. As PNM said, working for campaigns truly is something great. I had the chance to work on the Rubio campaign’s local office, and I’ll never forget it. But in the end, if your candidate loses, don’t stress yourself out about what you could have done. It’s much better to look toward the future for an opportunity to push for a new candidate to succeed.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Duke of York on November 04, 2017, 06:53:34 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.
You mean Northam?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2017, 07:02:38 PM
I feel like the Northam decline is being a little overhyped nationally in relation to what may actually be the effect in Virginia. I still expect Northam to win by a few points, but I can't say that I'm not at least nervous now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2017, 07:05:46 PM
I made about one-hundred calls into NOVA today, a little over one-hundred to be exact. There's great enthusiasm amongst moderates and independents for Ed specifically in the Loudon County area. If you want to make calls for Ed, just send me a PM and I'll link you up!

Can't even spell Loudoun county right.

Just canvassed in Arlington. Huge enthusiasm for Northam, everybody voting or already voted. I have seen literally no signs of a campaign presence for Gillespie, not one sign in the medians, and only a few yard signs scattered throughout the county. Still think he's going to win though, based off recent events.
You mean Northam?
No, Gillespie. I'm pessimistic, though maybe not as certain of a Gillespie win as I was yesterday.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: 2016 on November 04, 2017, 07:32:31 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 04, 2017, 07:40:41 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 04, 2017, 07:43:28 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

His problem was that Dems tried to clumsily disavow the ad.  Dems should have stuck by the ad like Republicans would have and moved on to other things.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: AtorBoltox on November 04, 2017, 07:50:11 PM
The last few pages of this thread will look so ridiculous when Northam inevitably wins by 5 points


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 07:51:31 PM
The last few pages of this thread will look so ridiculous when Northam inevitably wins by 5 points

I think the door has closed on that.  I still have him winning, but I would be quite surprised if he wins bigger than McAuliffe at this point.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2017, 07:52:16 PM
As a preface to this post about early voting, I'll just add that I think this data should not be used heavily for predictive purposes, but that we shouldn't ignore it. It's useful info, and it's out there.

Michael McDonald from Elect Project points out some interesting early vote numbers regarding a Latino area:

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  49m49 minutes ago
Replying to @ElectProject
I find this the most fascinating stat of Virginia's early vote. Latinos getting woke would be an election game changer

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  1h1 hour ago
Manassas City (2017 is 223% of the 2013 early vote) and Manassas Park (205%), localities with a significant Latino community, have the largest percent increases of any Virginia localities relative to 2013

He also said in some other tweets that he guesses the early voting is 7% of the total vote, and doesn't contradict the polling showing a small Northam lead.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 04, 2017, 07:54:37 PM
Why the heck is this Race so close?



Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

so dumb people on twitter/tumblr are now the democratic party? that's just dumb dude. cut it with the garbage propaganda. none of the politicians say stuff like this.

i wouldn't say gillepsie is being racist, but why are his advertisements a civil war reenactment as opposed to talking about how to actually help the lives of Virginians? gop being the party of civil war reenactors as opposed to coming up with policies that help americans like me has help turn me off pretty hard from them.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 04, 2017, 08:00:37 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 08:08:22 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 04, 2017, 08:12:19 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

I'd say that the 2012 Kaine/Allen race was a bit different because we knew that if Obama won Virginia, so would Kaine.  There was almost no worry about turnout issues like there are now.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 04, 2017, 08:13:51 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 04, 2017, 08:20:12 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

That too. Kaine only led in RCP by 3 and won by 6 in 2005

The trajectory in the 2005 race was the opposite though.  Kilgore had the lead up until around 10/20 and then after that, polls started showing Kaine ahead.  Kaine went into election day with clear momentum unlike Northam.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2017, 08:21:27 PM
Momentum is not a real thing.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2017, 08:30:11 PM
If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

That too. Kaine only led in RCP by 3 and won by 6 in 2005

The trajectory in the 2005 race was the opposite though.  Kilgore had the lead up until around 10/20 and then after that, polls started showing Kaine ahead.  Kaine went into election day with clear momentum unlike Northam.

Oops, no, I meant 2012.  VA was showing as statistically tied for both Obama/Romney and Kaine/Allen, with a lot of "momentum" for Republicans in October.  Then all of the Dems win by 4-6 despite the tied polling.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 04, 2017, 08:39:54 PM

Spikes in donation, and increases in volunteers are.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Young Conservative on November 04, 2017, 08:49:07 PM

Spikes in donation, and increases in volunteers are.
Momentum is not a thing but publicly perceived momentum is.  If you have perceived momentum, it increases enthusiasm, which increases turnout among your voters and volunteers.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 04, 2017, 09:21:39 PM
Average after Gravis release:

Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie
Polling Company: G+2

Average: N + 0.9

I will say that I'm disappointed that the last five polls are all from mediocre companies. Hopefully we actually get polls from CNU, Siena, and Monmouth before the election.


All well and good, except Optimus is G+3 resulting in a tie.

Presidential election years have certain turn-out patterns, while mid-term and off-year elections have others. A priori, the best model for turnout is the last such election. A priori, the worst model for a off-year election is a Presidential-year election.

Of course, there could be differences in enthusiasm,  and trends in the underlying partisan make-up of the electorate. And, other factors such as which party is in power, and, the state of economy, etc., could exist. These can be modeled.

If pollsters want to claim that 2016 voters are likely voters, then, they are failing to model the electorate accurately. Failing to model correctly, is modeling to fail.




Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2017, 09:22:06 PM

Spikes in donation, and increases in volunteers are.
Momentum is not a thing but publicly perceived momentum is.  If you have perceived momentum, it increases enthusiasm, which increases turnout among your voters and volunteers.

I don't see how that isn't arguing that momentum is a thing.

People use the term to argue that if polls go from Northam +5 two weeks before Election Day to Northam +2 one week before Election Day, we'll have Gillespie +1 on Election Day because of "momentum." Maybe you guys will be right and he'll win instead of losing in the polling average as he is now because of momentum, but we'll have to say.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 04, 2017, 10:10:52 PM

Spikes in donation, and increases in volunteers are.
Momentum is not a thing but publicly perceived momentum is.  If you have perceived momentum, it increases enthusiasm, which increases turnout among your voters and volunteers.

I don't see how that isn't arguing that momentum is a thing.

People use the term to argue that if polls go from Northam +5 two weeks before Election Day to Northam +2 one week before Election Day, we'll have Gillespie +1 on Election Day because of "momentum." Maybe you guys will be right and he'll win instead of losing in the polling average as he is now because of momentum, but we'll have to say.

And, if with ten days to go there was ten percent undecided with Northam +3, and each and in each of every one of the first five days .7% decide for Gillespie, and .3% decide for Northam [Northam +1], then, maybe, there are reasons to believe that the remaining 5% will break in a similar fashion[Gillespie +1.]


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2017, 10:19:13 PM
And, if with ten days to go there was ten percent undecided with Northam +3, and each and in each of every one of the first five days .7% decide for Gillespie, and .3% decide for Northam [Northam +1], then, maybe, there are reasons to believe that the remaining 5% will break in a similar fashion[Gillespie +1.]

No, there aren't. That's the fallacy.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 04, 2017, 10:28:30 PM
Northam tries to be on both sides of accusing Republican voters of being evil yet again:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/democratic-virginia-state-senator-labels-gillespie-supporters-evil/

Here is a link to his exchange with a reporter who confronts him as to whether, or not, he agrees with the characterization of Republicans as being "evil." Northam hems and haws:

https://twitter.com/FenitN/status/925906529101983746/photo/1


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2017, 10:43:25 PM
Larry Sabato predicts a narrow Northam win.

http://www.nbc29.com/story/36760091/larry-sabato-releases-his-prediction-for-gubernatorial-election


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 04, 2017, 10:56:41 PM
Larry Sabato predicts a narrow Northam win.

http://www.nbc29.com/story/36760091/larry-sabato-releases-his-prediction-for-gubernatorial-election
Sabato is a clown after his awful 2016 predictions for president governor house and senate.
I don’t put to much stock in his predictions.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 04, 2017, 11:01:41 PM
Larry Sabato predicts a narrow Northam win.

http://www.nbc29.com/story/36760091/larry-sabato-releases-his-prediction-for-gubernatorial-election

I don't get this part:

Quote
Sabato cites poor millennial and minority turnout at the polls in the 2016 presidential election as a concern for the Northam campaign.

Does he mean strictly in Virginia, or nationally? Nationwide, youth turnout was about the same as 2012, and as far as I can tell, only marginally less so in Virginia. Obviously it is to Democrats' disadvantage that youth turnout does not constantly rival that of the oldest generations, but I don't see why they would be a unique factor this cycle.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Spark on November 04, 2017, 11:17:09 PM
Larry Sabato predicts a narrow Northam win.

http://www.nbc29.com/story/36760091/larry-sabato-releases-his-prediction-for-gubernatorial-election
Sabato is a clown after his awful 2016 predictions for president governor house and senate.
I don’t put to much stock in his predictions.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2017, 03:50:05 AM
The VA Dem strategy:

1) Nominate whichever bland sh**theap of a politician that manages to climb to the top of the state establishment, regardless of electability.

2) Pray that the NoVA margins are big enough.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 05, 2017, 04:07:21 AM
The VA Dem strategy:

1) Nominate whichever bland sh**theap of a politician that manages to climb to the top of the state establishment, regardless of electability.

2) Pray that the NoVA margins are big enough.


True, but what's an alternative? Nominate "bold progressive"? He/she will lose, it's Virginia, not California. Nominate energetic, but not so popular (after all, he lost the primary to "bland sh**theap") candidate like Perriello? No guaranties it will work better..


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2017, 04:23:41 AM
The VA Dem strategy:

1) Nominate whichever bland sh**theap of a politician that manages to climb to the top of the state establishment, regardless of electability.

2) Pray that the NoVA margins are big enough.


True, but what's an alternative? Nominate "bold progressive"? He/she will lose, it's Virginia, not California. Nominate energetic, but not so popular (after all, he lost the primary to "bland sh**theap") candidate like Perriello? No guaranties it will work better..

I'm curious: When was the last time a bold progressive got the D nomination for a major election in Virginia, and lost terribly?


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2017, 04:28:05 AM
^ Henry Howell in 1977. (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=1977&f=0&off=5&elect=0)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: smoltchanov on November 05, 2017, 04:56:21 AM
The VA Dem strategy:

1) Nominate whichever bland sh**theap of a politician that manages to climb to the top of the state establishment, regardless of electability.

2) Pray that the NoVA margins are big enough.


True, but what's an alternative? Nominate "bold progressive"? He/she will lose, it's Virginia, not California. Nominate energetic, but not so popular (after all, he lost the primary to "bland sh**theap") candidate like Perriello? No guaranties it will work better..

I'm curious: When was the last time a bold progressive got the D nomination for a major election in Virginia, and lost terribly?

Well, long ago. Probably - Henry Howell for Governor in 1977. But the very fact that "bold progressive" isn't usually nominated in Virginia (read - can't win primary) already speaks volumes.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 05, 2017, 07:43:16 AM
And, if with ten days to go there was ten percent undecided with Northam +3, and each and in each of every one of the first five days .7% decide for Gillespie, and .3% decide for Northam [Northam +1], then, maybe, there are reasons to believe that the remaining 5% will break in a similar fashion[Gillespie +1.]

No, there aren't. That's the fallacy.

First of all, "fallacy" isn't an appropriate claim in the least. Had I made the strong claim, the best you could say is that the empirical data suggests otherwise. But, I made the weaker claim, so all you can claim is that the data tends to suggest otherwise.

Second, I doubt the empirical data suggests otherwise strongly. The single best question one can ask to determine voting intention is, "How is your best friend going to vote?" If one candidate is polling better, the pool of best friends is apt to skew in the same direction. You can claim that a strong correlation breaks down day-to-day, but I doubt it.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 05, 2017, 08:04:32 AM
()


https://www.nytimes.com//2017/11/05/upshot/upshot-siena-poll-gives-democrat-narrow-lead-in-virginia-governors-race.html


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 05, 2017, 08:07:16 AM
Ok, so final result is Gillespie 57-Northam 43. ;)


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on November 05, 2017, 08:46:52 AM
As of right now (8:45am ET) on PredictIt

()

In other words...people betting money on this race still believe Northam will win.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 05, 2017, 09:15:19 AM
As of right now (8:45am ET) on PredictIt

(Northam at .60, Gillespie at .41)

In other words...people betting money on this race still believe Northam will win.

That's narrowed a lot in a short time, though.  Gillespie was in the .25-.28 range a week or so ago.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2017, 09:29:31 AM
Tuesday weather outlook:

Pouring rain in SW VA (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=37.23&textField2=-80.41&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=).
Scattered showers in VA Beach. (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=37.0278&textField2=-76.3451&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=)
Slightly overcast in the morning in Fairfax, then rain once Republicans come home from work. (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=38.8418&textField2=-77.3089&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=)

Great news.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Brittain33 on November 05, 2017, 09:33:07 AM
Tuesday weather outlook:

Pouring rain in SW VA (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=37.23&textField2=-80.41&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=).
Scattered showers in VA Beach. (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=37.0278&textField2=-76.3451&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=)
Slightly overcast in the morning in Fairfax, then rain once Republicans come home from work. (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=38.8418&textField2=-77.3089&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=)

Great news.

I like this forecast.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 05, 2017, 10:22:36 AM
Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 05, 2017, 11:21:25 AM
Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.

You're including Optimus but excluding The Polling Company and WaPo?

Either way, would suggest Northam has just barely weathered the storm.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 05, 2017, 12:25:44 PM
Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.

You're including Optimus but excluding The Polling Company and WaPo?

Either way, would suggest Northam has just barely weathered the storm.

I'm doing the last 5 polls.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 05, 2017, 01:09:42 PM
This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 05, 2017, 01:32:51 PM
This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: _ on November 05, 2017, 01:36:08 PM
This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

You mean 52-46-2 Because Gillespie gets all Undecideds.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2017, 01:37:05 PM
If you were a republican, how would you react to a Northam victory by 3 points?

Yea, it would be upsetting to lose what appeared to be a winnable race, but on the other hand, it's reassuring that trump's approvals aren't totally wiping out "generic r"


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Keep cool-idge on November 05, 2017, 01:46:12 PM
This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra
The only poll I can find they did in 2016 is North Carolina and it’s a garbage poll,
They had both Hillary and trump tied at 44-44 with Gary Johnson getting 3 two days before the election!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: BudgieForce on November 05, 2017, 02:03:54 PM
This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra
The only poll I can find they did in 2016 is North Carolina and it’s a garbage poll,
They had both Hillary and trump tied at 44-44 with Gary Johnson getting 3 two days before the election!

They regularly polled in 2016 during both the primary and the general.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: KingSweden on November 05, 2017, 02:44:39 PM
If you were a republican, how would you react to a Northam victory by 3 points?

Yea, it would be upsetting to lose what appeared to be a winnable race, but on the other hand, it's reassuring that trump's approvals aren't totally wiping out "generic r"

In your case, you’d probably also want to consider how downballot races go. HoD could be instructive with the map gerrymandered in GOP favor


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 05, 2017, 03:21:54 PM
Looks like the swath of rain is going right through NOVA or a little south Tuesday afternoon and night. Bad news for Democrats.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 05, 2017, 07:06:43 PM
Tuesday weather outlook:

Pouring rain in SW VA (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=37.23&textField2=-80.41&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=).
Scattered showers in VA Beach. (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&w17u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=37.0278&textField2=-76.3451&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=)
Slightly overcast in the morning in Fairfax, then rain once Republicans come home from work. (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w13u=0&w16u=1&AheadHour=39&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=38.8418&textField2=-77.3089&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=)

Great news.

I like this forecast.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: HST1948 on November 05, 2017, 07:14:21 PM
Final Emerson Poll: Northam +3

Northam: 49%
Gillespie: 46%
Hyra: 1%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/927325453265915905/photo/1


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 05, 2017, 07:16:00 PM
Final Emerson Poll: Northam +3

Northam: 49%
Gillespie: 46%
Hyra: 1%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/927325453265915905/photo/1

Yeah boi!!! C'mon Northam, final push, we are gonna do this!


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 05, 2017, 07:46:50 PM
Polling seems to be converging around Northam +3.


Title: Re: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
Post by: Virginiá on November 05, 2017, 08:02:19 PM
New thread due to almost reaching 2,000 posts: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276670