Talk Elections

Chapter 1: The Republican Presidential primaries
As the year 1963 opened, multiple Republicans were considered possible candidates for the 1964 nomination. These candidates included Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York, and Former Senator (and 1960 Vice presidential nominee) Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. Goldwater was expected to take the support of Western Republicans and Conservatives, Rockefeller and Lodge were supposed to fight over Eastern, Northern Liberal Republicans

However, when Rockefeller divorced and the remarried to a young woman who already had children, Social Conservatives in the GOP and in other parties were outraged. The GOP leadership thought that nominating Rockefeller would lead to a Kennedy landslide. Rockefeller was contacted by GOP leadership to drop out. Rockefeller declined, but his falling poll numbers made him drop out anyways

Now, Henry Lodge could have taken the Northeastern Liberals and possibly the nomination, but Lodge was short of funds and was short of charisma. Lodge was unable to stop the rising Goldwater candidacy, and Liberals were desperate to find a suitable candidate to stop him.

Then came Governor George Romney of Michigan. Romney had just finished his term, and was preparing to run for president in 1968. However, realizing that a Goldwater nomination would lead to a second Kennedy term, Romney threw his hat in the ring. Romney gained support from a lot of Northeastern liberals, and Lodge soon dropped out to support Romney. James Rhodes, a Conservative like Goldwater, decided to take his race to the convention. That decision hurt Goldwater a lot.

Romney won the first primary: New Hampshire. Congressman John W. Byrnes won Wisconsin with 99% of the vote (though to be fair he was the only candidate on the ballot). Romney then won Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, but his advance was stopped with a Goldwater victory in Texas and Indiana. Rhodes won his home state of Ohio. Goldwater then won Nebraska, but Romney came back with a victory in West Virginia, Oregon and Maryland. Goldwater then won Florida, but Romney winning California by 5 points (aided by Senator Thomas Kuchel) gave Goldwater’s campaign a huge blow, but Goldwater’s South Dakota victory gave him hope. By the time the convention came, George Romney got the majority of delegates+5 more. Romney’s running mate was Everett Dirksen. Dirksen was chosen because 1. Dirksen supported Goldwater and could unite the party 2. He is from Illinois, a crucial swing state and 3. He has a lot of experience, being in politics since 1933 (though that casted rumors about his health)

The polls after the convention show Romney leading Kennedy by 3 points (42% Romney, 39% Kennedy, 5% Faubus [1] and 14% undecided)

[1]= Faubus is running on a segregationist third party campaign, however, Lyndon Johnson is campaigning in the South, doing his best to ensure that Faubus doesn’t win a state

Republican Primary map:

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George Romney: 6 states won, 40.1% of the popular vote
Barry Goldwater: 4 states won, 35.2% of the popular vote
James Rhodes: 1 state won, 10.4% of the popular vote
John Byrnes: 1 state won, 5.1% of the popular vote
Others: 9.2% of the popular vote
Didn’t hold a primary

Chapter Two: The 1964 presidential campaign
John F. Kennedy had inherited a lot of support after the failed assassination attempt in Dallas, Texas. The shooter misfired and hit the tire. Thankfully, the driver hit the brakes, thus ensuring that no one got hurt. However, the support died fast, and Kennedy was faced with a narrow election again.

The commission of Presidential Debates was founded on January 3rd, 1964. They scheduled 3 debates and a vice presidential one. The first debate saw a Kennedy victory, and the VP debate saw a Dirksen victory. Kennedy bought up the civil rights act whenever he could, and tried his best to downplay Romney’s civil rights activism. The civil rights act had bought a lot of Blacks to the Democratic party, and while Romney was polling 38% in that group of voters, he was still trailing by a large margin. Are the Republicans losing their once core voters?

That notion of Blacks leaving the GOP for the Democratic party ended on October 8th, 1964, when a tape possessed by the Chicago Tribune found out that Johnson, while talking to John Kennedy, who was worried after seeing a poll which had him losing to Romney by 2%, was saying racist remarks, most notably:

“We don’t need to worry, those n------ will vote for us instead of Romney. We are the party of n----- rights, we’ve got those black asses voting for Democrats for 200 years, I tell ya!”

Kennedy’s polling collapsed, at the same time, Faubus faded away from popularity. Romney was leading by double digits. The second and third debates were Kennedy victories, which helped him, but when voters, especially African-Americans, came to the polls, they remembered Johnson’s remarks
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George Romney/Everett Dirksen (Republican), 309 Electoral votes, 51.1% of the Popular vote
John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic), 229 Electoral votes, 44.7% of the Popular vote
Orval Faubus/Ross Barnett (Dixiecrat), 0 Electoral votes, 4.0% of the Popular vote

Thoughts?

Interesting.

Chapter three: 1964 down ballot elections

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Senate:

DEM: 55 (-11)
GOP: 45 (+11)

House:

DEM: 238 (-20)
GOP: 196 (+20)

Newly elected senators whose predecessors were of the previous party:

George H. W. Bush (R-TX)
Ezra T. Benson (R-UT)
Paul Laxalt (R-NV)
George Murphy (R-CA)
John S. Wold (R-WY)
Thomas Kleppe (R-ND)
Clifford McIntire (R-ME)
William G. Bray (R-IN)
Elly Peterson (R-MI)
John D. Lodge (R-CT)
Robert A. Taft, Jr. (R-OH)

With George Romney winning (kinda) big in the north, his coattails extended to other states. The Republican gains were in states that Romney won, except for Texas, which, after 2 months of recounting, voted for Bush by 12 votes. A lot of races, like in Maine and Michigan, which could have had Peterson and McIntire lose by a landslide, the polling was narrowed by the time the Johnson tapes came out, and both of them won by narrow margins

While the GOP gained big league in both houses, it didn’t win them any house.

Interesting TL Golfman, wonder how Romney does as President(given my TL on AH.com, I first thought of the other Romney when I saw the title). He was a dove on Vietnam, so no war there will be good.

Great so far!

No update today have sore throat but enjoy these boxes instead

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Great work, Golfman!

Thanks

Brilliant so far, except that it seems doubtful to me that Hart, Muskie, Hartke, or Moss would have ever lost in 1964.