Talk Elections

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This is the national map of Republican primary results per state with all votes for Donald Trump removed.

Very interesting. Thanks for making.

Can u plz make a version with only solid colors instead of gradients? Colorblind, hard for me to make out results. Thx.

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Here is the map without gradient.

You forgot to put a key for the map.

Yellow - Cruz
Green - Rubio
Red - Kasich

I think that is correct.

All the states in which Kasich comes in second after Trump are the Adams states of 1796.

Rubio would not have emerged as a serious candidate if Trump were not in the race. Though I suspect Cruz would still have surged (indeed, as a populist standard-bearer, much like Trump operated in our timeline) and that Kasich might have, too, considering that his surge in New Hampshire had little to do with Trump in a timeline where nobody in New Hampshire is getting over 20%, with Jeb, Christie, and Paul all still serious candidates, Kasich might've had a chance to win the state outright. Who knows.

I suspect Cruz would've been the nominee in such a timeline. In fact, I think if you start the clock the day after the 2012 election, there're very few timelines in which Cruz does not become the nominee.

Trump's votes would've been split up between Cruz and either Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich.  There was clearly no appetite for Jeb, Rubio I believe would have been exposed sooner rather than later, so I guess than leaves Kasich vs Cruz.

I maintain that Trump's entry fundamentally changed the race.  It's impossible to know what the primary would have looked like in a non-Trump world, but my guess is that we would have seen Walker outlast Jeb, with someone like Rubio or Cruz taking a state or two.

People forget how much groundswell there was for Ben Carson before Trump came and absorbed all the "political outsider" hype. We'll never know if he would've been able to sustain that excitement in a Trump-less primary.

I think it would be Walker vs Bush/Kasich(who ever wins new Hampshire between them)

If its Bush vs Walker , I believe Bush wins it on Super Tuesday 2


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Forget to shade ohio blue in as well but Ohio going Blue seals it for Bush

If it is kasich vs walker it goes all the way to the convention

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Cruz kind of robbed Carson in Iowa.

The map show Cruz winning as Rubio and Kasich divide the establishment.

I'm betting on a Rubio nomination...if Christie in this scenario is withdrawing after Iowa.

I doubt that, Rubio's ridiculously overrated. He always has been.

Don't know, but without Trump on the ballot and without Christie hurting him ahead of NH vote, I'm seeing Marco Rubio winning convincely in New Hampshire and narrowly ahead of Cruz in South Carolina( of course, even winning well in Nevada without Trump)...so presenting him as the frontrunner ahead of Super Tuesday...keep in mind that with a frontrunner different from Trump, traling candidates would have kept out since SupT...

People shouldn't underestimate Jeb, Trump is just good at breaking down his opponents, the only candidate he had some trouble with was Cruz. Cruz is really the only candidate who showed resiliency in the face of Trump's attacks, which proves that he had the strongest base of support.

Christie was never going to drop out after IA, his whole campaign was NH, and he had zero respect for rubio, so that was always going to happen. All Christie did is what Jeb should've done to him, but Jeb was always intimidated whenever Trump was in the room, Jeb did a lot better in the IA debate without Trump. Though it was too late for Jeb and he was not as vicious as he needed to be at that point, of course, the argument could be made without Trump that Jeb never would've been weakened so much to benefit Rubio in the first place and he never would've even needed to be vicious in normal conditions. Rubio's line against Jeb was in the same vein that he used against Christie in NH exactly as Christie described it, the 'drive by shot + 30 second memorized speech bashing Obama'. Jeb really should've been the one to call him out on it.

Anyway, the only reason why rubio/cruz lasted so long is that they refused to attack, had they attacked earlier, they would've collapsed. Walker probably runs well ahead of rubio in a Trumpless primary.

As for Cruz, he was originally going to want to take the populist route similar to Trump.

Jeb also doesn't collapse.

The only reason rubio lasted so long is because he refused to take on Trump and because Jeb didn't do his job well, and he was the second choice to Jeb for establishment voters.

And the only reason he did well in SC is due to tag-teaming with Trump against 'lyin ted' there. Rubio didn't have a campaign other than trying to avoid Trump.

Don't see what the fascination with NV is, the Hispanics there are Mexicans not Cubans, they would've either gone for Jeb or would've gone the populist route with Cruz like they did with Trump.


Anyway, the primary likely comes down to main 3 candidates, either Jeb/Walker/Cruz, with Jeb being the candidate with the only viable path to 1237, if Jeb fails to perform and if no one gets a majority of delegates, then Cruz takes it at the convention.

If you don't think Jeb makes it, then just replace Jeb with Kasich, except Kasich didn't have a shot at 1237, unlike Jeb, which means Cruz would take it at the convention anyway.


*By the way, why do people keep talking about the NH debate as a big deal, Trump was leading the IA polls, there were many people who backed away from him at the last minute because they were upset that he didn't attend the debate, If Trump had attended, argument could be made that rubio never would've done as well as he did in IA in the first place.

Walker wasn't a factor in the 2016 Primary Election with Trump and without Trump he wouldn't have been a factor either because he dropped out of the race so quickly to even be a factor.

That's because he attacked Trump, that happened to everyone who attacked him.

So you think because Trump attacked Walker that led to Walkers quick exit from the race?

That happened to everyone he 'counter-punched', he got a ton of free media and used it to demonize his opponents which tended to work well.