Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: UWS on February 19, 2017, 07:14:32 AM



Title: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: UWS on February 19, 2017, 07:14:32 AM
What the 2020 Senate map would look like if Donald Trump's job approval is between 30 % and 40 % and loses the general election?


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: crazy jimmie on February 19, 2017, 07:41:04 AM
No.


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: UWS on February 19, 2017, 08:05:59 AM
Okay, just give me your analysis, your predictions.


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: SCNCmod on February 19, 2017, 11:29:32 AM
I think Thom Tillis will definitely loose his senate seat in NC in 2020. (Even if Trump carries NC)


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: libertpaulian on February 19, 2017, 12:35:03 PM
I think Thom Tillis will definitely loose his senate seat in NC in 2020. (Even if Trump carries NC)
Is he really that bad of a Senator?


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: SCNCmod on February 19, 2017, 01:00:13 PM
I think Thom Tillis will definitely loose his senate seat in NC in 2020. (Even if Trump carries NC)
Is he really that bad of a Senator?


He has low name ID in NC... and doesn't stand out as doing very much.  State Senator Jeff Jackson will wipe the floor with him in 2020 (IMO)... Jackson is young (will be 39 or 40 in 2020, smart, ernest, energetic, good looking family, good speaker... everything Tillis lacks).. Jackson is sort of a perfect candidate & has military experience, former prosecutor, etc.

Jeff Jackson & his Wife...

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Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: SCNCmod on February 19, 2017, 01:10:08 PM
But I think Jackson has much more potential than Jodi Ernst.. I don't see Ernst ever being on a Presidential ticket... I could easily see Jackson being on one.


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 19, 2017, 02:32:41 PM
Gardner and Tillis are certainly the weakest, if Trump is being obliterated in the polls (the former could probably lose even if trump wins by a healthy margin). Ernst would be a toss-up (if not underdog) in this scenario. Hard to see a huge amount of potential outside of them though. Could Collins luck run out? Probably not, barring something unexpected. Daines and Sullivan seem to be popular, but the fact that the state parties are alive could help. I think Georgia is a doomed state for the Dems. I assume the embarassing senile relics like Roberts and Thad will be shunted out. Could the Kentucky Democrats revive themselves without the WAR ON COAL in the White House and finally kick McConnell? Doubt it, democrats are stupid.


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: heatcharger on February 19, 2017, 08:12:03 PM
Wow! Democrats have the best Gen X/Millennial politicians! I guess you can thank Bush for one thing.


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: publicunofficial on February 19, 2017, 10:17:56 PM
Super super preliminary ratings with no possible knowledge of national environment, the strength/weakness of either 2020 Presidential campaign, or what issues voters in 2020 will be caring about:

Possible retirements: Cochran, Roberts, Markey, Risch, Durbin, Collins, Reed, Booker, Alexander


Safe D: New Jersey, Oregon, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Illinois, Rhode Island, Delaware
Likely D: Minnesota, New Hampshire
Lean D: Virginia, Michigan
Toss-Up: Colorado, North Carolina
Lean R: Montana, Iowa
Likely R: Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Maine
Safe R: Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: heatcharger on February 19, 2017, 10:34:48 PM
Wow! Democrats have the best Gen X/Millennial politicians! I guess you can thank Bush for one thing.

Jeff Jackson is a Millennial... and yeah, I agree with SCNCMod that he has the potential to make that race top tier.

Likely D: Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan
Leans D: New Hampshire
Tossup: Colorado, North Carolina
Leans R: Montana (tossup w/Bullock, likely/Safe R without), Georgia
Likely R: Alaska (depends on environment and if Begich/Berkowitz run), Maine (safe R with Collins, tossup without), Iowa

Haha yeah I was saying that the Bush era + Iraq and Afghanistan War created a breed of strong potential Democratic candidates like Jason Kander, Scott Holcomb, Jeff Jackson, etc.

As for my ratings, I'd agree with yours, although I'd move Colorado and Alaska one position to the left.


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: publicunofficial on February 19, 2017, 10:58:08 PM
Ha! :P I feel like if there is an upset though, it will be in MN or MI. One could move those to Lean D as well, but I think Franken and Peters are well-positioned to win reelection (Franken more so than Peters, however), unless Trump wins their states by a decent margin and Republicans make a serious effort there. I don't see Warner and Shaheen losing in any scenario (even if Trump wins their states). I was thinking about moving IL to Likely D and TX to Likely R, but I don't see it, honestly. I think Lean D in CO is actually being pretty generous to Gardner.

If Klobuchar sails effortlessly through 2018, Franken is probably safe for 2020. Likewise if Cruz easily wins re-election, Cornyn probably will as well.

I debated McConnell being Likely R. His approvals will be as low as they've ever been, and possibly even lower if Trump absolutely tanks the Republican brand. But right now it's not clear if Dems have any ability to win in Kentucky at all.

Do we have any idea who will run against Gardner?


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: BuckeyeNut on February 20, 2017, 12:20:02 AM
Dem Targets:

Tier 1: Colorado, Maine*, North Carolina
Tier 2: Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Montana
Tier 3: Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Texas

* Assuming Collins retires


Title: Re: 2020 Senate elections
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 21, 2017, 11:06:12 PM


ME-Emily Cain
MT-Steve Bullock
Iowa-Christie Vilsack
AK-Berkowitz
NC-moderate Democrat
IL-Mike Quigley, Durbin steps down


CO, VA, MI and NH lean Democratic

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3-6 seats