Talk Elections

In the final months of the WW2, the allies knew that they would win the war. They had doubt only about when and how they would win. In 1944 in Bretton Woods, they were already discussing the world economy after the war. In the Teheran Conference of 1943, Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill were already discussing Europe after the war.

When were they sure that they would win?

Maybe in December 1941, when the Germans were defeated near Moscow and the USA joined the war after Pearl Harbor.

Or maybe only in November 1942, when the Germans started to loose the Battle of Stalingrad, and when they lost the Battle of El Alamein.

Maybe, when the nazis started the Wannsee Conference in January 1942, they already knew that they would loose the war.

While Stalingrad and El Alamein marked the high tide of the German advance, I'd say it wasn't until Kursk the following summer that an Allied victory as opposed to a stalemate in Europe was certain. In the Pacific, victory was always certain once the fighting in Europe was done. That's why we pursued a Europe first policy.

A victory for the Third Reich was unlikely after Moscow, impossible after Stalingrad, defeat was certain after Kursk, and total annihilation after Bagration. The western Ally were sure they would win after Overlord succeeded, but not so much before that. As for the Soviets, I don't really know at which point they knew, but probably after Stalingrad (no way it was before, or they were either delusional or far-seers).

You can see that as soon as November 1943, with the Tehran conference, the Allies are beginning to think about after their victory.

The USSR became offensive and the Third Reich became defensive only after the Battle of Kursk, in July 1943. But after the defeat of the Third Reich in Moscow in December 1941, and the entrance of the USA in the war, maybe it became clear that Germany+Japan+Italy could not defeat USSR+UK+USA, since these later three countries had much more combined resources: territory, people, raw, industry. Remember that the UK was not only the isles, but also an empire.

De Gaulle was said to comment upon hearing about Pearl Harbor: "the war is won, it'll take some more years, but the Nazis are finished."

Wasn't most of the Italian general population opposed to Italy fighting on the side of Germany?

They lynched Mussolini at the first opportunity if that suggests anything.

The US had around 40% of world GDP in 1940. That alone is just an outstanding figure, and easily enough to swamp the Axis with it's ability to crank out Planes, Tanks, Airplanes and Supplies. The UK+ Empire was at 15% and the USSR also had 15% of global GDP. Together the Allies had around 70% of world GDP to the 15%-20% for the Axis.