Talk Elections

I thought of a good idea (I think).

Here is how it will go. The poster will post the race that next poster can predict the performance of in a race. You can add under what conditions too.

Example:
Virginia Senate
(42% against Kaine, etc.)

Have fun! :)

Here's mine.

Mississippi Presidential Election

If you're holding a statewide office, 45%
If you're the Rep of MS-02, 43%

NC-GOV

Against McCrory, 50%

WA-SEN

Against Quist, 55%

No office? OK.

TX-23

Whoops!

Peebs wins by 0.5% in a whisker.

IA-04

Probably a double digit win

Here's one for the ones interested in Australian elections

Division of Murray, as an Independent. (Good luck)

Uh, I'll take a shot in the dark and say you'll garnish about 8%, failing to qualify for the two-candidate vote.

VA-10 against Comstock

You win 51-48 in a 2018 climate or lose 50-49 in 2016

TN-Pres

63-35 win.

WA-08, with Reichert retiring.

57-41 loss.

MT-AL

39-54 loss.

Virginia Governor.

Depends on the GOP candidate, but probably 52-45.

NC-SEN against Tillis.

50-49 victory.

VA-GOV

Eke out a win by 2 points over a moderate R

NC-GOV

53-46 victory

IA-SEN against Ernst

Supposed to be an Ernst blowout, but on election night it turns out to be closer than expected. 53-45.

AK-GOV 2022: Kingpoleon/Jahna Lindemuth(I) v. Joe Miller/John Coghill(R/C) v. Larry Murakami/Hollis French(D/G)

Miller-42
Kingpoleon- 31
Murakami-27

Missouri Secretary of State

59-37 victory

Missouri Senator

55-43 (how things are going right now)

MS Gubernatorial

55-43 loss.

NC-09 against Mark Harris

Loses 62-38

TX-GOV

Wins 61-37

WI-Gov

Rating is Tilt D, but election night it ends up surprisingly lopsided in the Democrat's favor, around 55-45.

New Hampshire Senator

51-49 loss/win, depending on the gender of the GOP candidate. ;)

MA-GOV against Charlie Baker, 2014

Loses 53-44

NY-19, against John Faso

Loses 50-49

TX-32, against incumbent Pete Sessions in 2016

Loses 62-34

TN-05 against Jim Cooper

Loses 55-45

GA-SEN

Wins 51-48.

LA-GOV against David Vitter

53%-44%, for Bullock would still be popular, but you seem moderate and reasonable enough to win.

Florida gubernatorial election in 2018

Loss - 53-46

Virginia's 11th Congressional District.

68-32 win.

CA-Sen

Open seat: 62-38 win against other Dem.
w/ incumbent: You are the 38

WA-SEN

60-40

CO-SEN

Loses 46-51

Massachusetts gubernatorial election against Charlie Baker

Lose in a surprisingly tight 53-46 race with Jill Stein getting one percent.

ME-Gov

Poliquin bests you 54-46. Collins would beat you 59-41.

MN-Gov, with Tim Penny as my running mate and the nomination of the Independence Party.

You might get 14% of the vote.

AK-SEN in 2020 against Dan Sullivan. 

50-46 loss

TX Lt Gov against Dan Patrick, 2018

57-41 loss
NC Lt. Gov. against Dan Forest, 2016

53-47 loss

TX-01 against Louie Gohmert, 2016

66-32%

United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018

46%

Iowa Senate Race 2020

Against Ernst, you would narrowly lose 49-47. In the unlikely event of it being an open seat, I think you would narrowly win 49-47.

Me vs Josh Hawley in the senate election in Missouri in 2018.

49.3% Hawley - 48.7% Bagel

You're significantly a better fit for Missouri than McCaskill, but Hawley's strength in rural areas is too much to overcome.

Me vs. Shantel Krebs in SD-AL 2018. I've gotten the endorsement of Herseth, Heitkamp, Johnson, and my friend John Hoeven.

Crossover appeal (in Hoeven) + Trump midterm = 52%

NC-GOV against McCrory, 2016

McCrory wins 49-47. While your ultra liberal views seem treacherous for a win in this race, you would not be immediately screwed there because you could use your berniecrat populism to win over the bubba vote, but, you gotta remember that they are also social conservatives, and you in particular might have some problems getting them to vote for you...

Me vs Josh Mandel in the Ohio Senate Election in 2018?

50%

2016 GOP primary, head-to-head w/ Trump

You'd probably perform better than Cruz, since you'd be nowhere near as disliked as he is, but Trump would probably still prevail, although with narrower margins in places like Indiana, and you might win Missouri, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Mississippi or Alabama in addition to the Cruz states.

IA-SEN 2014 against Ernst

49-45
does well in mississippi valley, and des moines burbs, loses bad everywhere else

Me vs Shelley Moore Capito 2014

Capito wins 68-32. You would be better at motivating the liberal base to turnout, but you'll turn off the moderates in coal country. Obama's extremely low approval rating in WV would be impossible for you to overcome--especially during a six-year itch midterm. The moderate Republican, Shelley Moore Capito was the perfect fit for the state at the time when people were angry about the rollout of Obamacare and scared of ISIS and Ebola.

Me vs. Mitch McConnell in 2008 and 2014

Double digit losses in both cases due to Eastern Kentucky revolting against the above poster's radicalism.

Me v. John McCain in the 2016 Senate race

Better than Kirkpatrick, but still not enough to win. 42-44%.

Me, 2018 Illinois Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

29% against durbin

Me, Colorado 2014 Senate Race, vs. Gardner

As a Democrat, I think you would narrowly beat out Cory 49-48. Your charisma and energy is enough to stave off the red wave here.

Me vs Pat Toomey in the 2016 Senate Race in Pennsylvania?

Bagel 49 - Toomey 47

You'd have more crossover appeal than McGinty, and your moderate-ness won't affect black turnout in Philly thanks to Clinton being on the ballot.

Me vs Flake, 2018.

2018 Arizona Senate Election
96% Reporting
Jeff Flake - 49.73% WINNER
Kamala - 48.19%

Kamala is able to muster up a good Coalition of Minority groups including Hispanics and Native Americans and also Disaffected and Liberal Whites to win 48% off the vote. However Flake is able to narrow out a Victory in the End overcoming polls showing him losing on average by 0.31% according to Realclearpolitics Average as of November 5th. He is able to win by a little more then 1.5% due to him picking up some ground in some the Rural belt county's running down the state but also more importantly holding Maricopa County by a little over 2%. He however loses Navajo and Yuma county's due to increased Minority turnout

()

Me V Dean Heller in 2018 Nevada Senate election

wins washoe by 2 points and clarke by 12 points, 52-40. Overall, you win, 49.71- 46.89

Politicalmasta didn't name a race, so I guess I'll just request my race.

NJ Gubernatorial 2009, Me (D) vs. Chris Christie (R)

Christie still wins because Daggett's on your #$% for being so moderate. Probably the same numbers too.

Me vs Eric Holcomb, 2016 Indiana gubernatorial

Loses 58-39, and guns and coal really hurt him.


WI-SEN, 2016

Wins 51-47. Not too different as the senate race their last year was generic D vs generic R, and you are pretty much a generic R.

Me vs Martha Roby 2016 general congressional race in Al 2nd?

Election night:
Martha Roby - 45.43%
Ryan Bagel XXIII - 45.38%
Becky Gerritson - 8.67%

With a margin of approximately 140 votes, Bagel is granted a recount. Three weeks later, after multiple recounts showing both candidates leading, the official tally of votes has Bagel defeating Roby by a margin of 79 votes, becoming the first new Democratic gain in the Deep South since Gwen Graham in 2014, and the first in Alabama since whenever.

Collin Peterson retires in 2018, and endorses me. How do I do against the Republican?

It will be a tight race as the district is overwhelmingly Republican, however if you campaign heavily alongside Peterson, you could squeak out a victory.

2018 NJ Senate Dem Primary: Me vs. Bob Menendez

If you run a Gottheimer-style campaign, you may actually beat Fighting Bob, like 51-49. Y

BTW - Love your sig. Gottheimer is great.


Me vs Ed Gilliespie, R-VA, in a GOP Primary

I would support you and would hope you win, but I think Gillespie would have so much money behind him. Besides, you strike me as being a tiny bit more moderate than he.

I'd say 53-47 for Gillespie.

Me vs. Gwen Graham for governor (without Rick Scott being governor before)

Without Rick Scott's baggage, I'd say you win 50-48, assuming 2018 isn't a complete disaster for Republicans.

NV-SEN 2012 against Heller

You win by 52% minimum.

Me vs Loretta Sanchez, CA-SEN Primary, 2016

Even though you're not a very good fit for California, Loretta Sanchez is a clown (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uuyTggFWYc). You manage to resonate with the poor and working-class into voting for you en masse, while getting enough Bay Area social liberals to hold their noses and vote for you to push you over the edge.
Let Dogs Survive: 52.4%
Loretta Sanchez: 47.6%

Me vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) in 2020, with Sanders defeating Trump in a landslide (nationally) up-ballot

You would lose 58-36, she is just too strong for a takedown. None the less, you would be a good candidate.

Me as a dem vs Preston Picus as an indy in the 2016 house race in CA 12th?

You defeat Picus by a 65-35 margin due to a D being next to your name and an I next to his.

Me vs. Kim Guadagno in 2017 NJ gubernatorial

()

Me vs Ted Cruz; 2018 Texas Senate Race

Cruz 55-40.

MA-SEN 2012 vs. Brown

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Me V Governor Paul LePage 2014 Maine Governors election.

You win, 44-39-10. Eliot Cutler isn't strong enough to spoil it against the likes of you.

You would get demolished 57-41. While Connecticut is much more R friendly down ballot, it takes a certain type of R to even get close to winning state-wide. A very moderate Republican, even more so than Kasich, and just a smidge to the right of the likes of Chaffee and Jeffords. You are not that kind of Republican. You espouse radical views, and would be very hyper-partisan. Even in 2014, it would still be a blanching.

Me vs Bill Cole in the 2016 WV Gov Race?

Your economic populism would win you a fair bit of support across the state, and judging from a cursory glance of your politics, you could look forward to crossing 50%.

Me vs. Bill de Blasio in the next New York City mayoral election.

Assuming you're an elected official from New York City and run as an anti-Trump Republican (assuming you aren't attempting to primary de Blasio or run 3rd party), you could make the race much more competitive. If you run a campaign similar to Rudy Giuliani in 1993, then you could pull it off, albeit narrowly.

Me vs. George Allen in the 2006 VA Senate race

Hmmm, tough one. You'd either win or lose 50-49. I'd tilt towards win, considering how you seem pretty close to Jim Webb on most issues

Me vs Dean Heller, 2018 Nevada Senate race (since you all don't know too much about my political views, I tend to be of the progressive wing of the democratic Party)

You win 52-47.

Me vs. Toomey in PA-SEN 2016

Since the last election was so partisan on the downballot, I don't see you winning unless PA flips Democrat for some reason.

Me vs. Frank Underwood in Dem primary 2016 :P

you lose 55-45, carrying NH,CT,MA,NY,and MD

2020 Colorado Senate(me a dem against Gardner)

50.1%-48.5% victory for you due to a sweep in Boulder, Denver, Winning big in the resort county's, well in the southern Hispanic working class county's, and also winning the northern Denver suburban county's by narrow margins making the election close.

Me V Rick Scott in Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Election

well, if you ran a good, which i bet you would, I could see -

govanah jake-2,839,422
Rick Scott-2,836,981

you can attribute your win to HEAVY margins in Broward,Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade, while losing ground in the panhandle,and a little in the 1-4 corridor.

2010 Ohio Gubernatorial Election I am the dem

Considering the kind of year 2010 was, Kasich would probably still narrowly win, 48-47 or so.

Me vs. Snyder, MI-GOV 2014

Snyder 55-45

Me versus Deborah Ross (Assume it was an Open Seat) NC 2016

()
Barack Obama - 339 51.2%

First Degree Burns - 199 47.5%

You overperform McCain in all areas winning the states of Indiana and North Carolina and coming close in Florida 49-48% and New Hampshire 49%-47.8%. You also narrow Virginia 50-47% and Colorado 51%-47% and Ohio 50%-48.4%. However the recession and two terms of bush are too much to overcome and you fall short of victory.

Me V Dubya in 2004 general election.

()


Me vs. Phil Scott 2016 vt gov.

Considering Minter was a weak candidate, I think you could win, albeit narrowly (48-46 or so)

Me vs. Cory Booker, 2020 Democratic nomination

you win 53-47

2014 Colorado Gub. Election

You win 51-47

KY Senate election in 2008 as the Dem.

You still lose to the turtle, 51-49

Me vs. George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential race

()

Blue Dog Moderate (D-NJ) / Sam Nunn (D-GA) - 329
George Bush (R-TX) / Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 209

2010 PA Senate Dem Primary Head to Head vs Specter

You defeat Specter, 55-45. It was obvious Specter switched parties just to win reelection, and Sestak wasn't the best candidate.

Me vs. George Allen in the 2006 VA Senate race

49.5-49.3 Allen

Me vs Quinn in 2010.

You defeat Quinn by an almost identical margin as Rauner did

Me Vs Ford in 1976

Ford probably wins because you (assumingly) have no southern connection.

CT-Gov 2018 (as a Democrat or an Independent)

as a dem, you win with 49-44

as an indy, maybe 10%

2018 Ohio Senate race me vs. Mandel

P.S-I would really appreciate a county map!

()

State Senator Politicalmasta73: 49.82%

State Treasurer Josh Mandel: 45.89%

You are more or less able to remake a 2012 Brown win with a slight shift to Mandel to the statewide shift of the state to the republicans.

Me V a republican (Pick one) in a open seat 2018 New York Senate Election. Again a county map would be appreciated.

http://hostthenpost.org/uploads/4d05b7d643feac750c7c8ddef3bc0b78.png

this is the county map.

64-33 you vs Rob astorino

Michigan senate race 2018 PLEASE iclude county map and percentages!

()

You win 59-36.

Me vs John McCain in 2008.

()

you win

2014 Minnesota senate race

48% narrow victory

VT-Gov

()

MB: 49.64%
Phil Scott: 48.90%

2016 Missouri Senate

()

Jason Kander (D) 49.8%
Govanah Jake (R) 47.7%

2000 VA Senate

(messed up colors)

NOVA wasn't yet ready to turn.

George Allen - 51.34%
Mark "HeatCharger" McKaine - 49.02%

Me vs Dianne Feinstein 2018.

DiFi wins by 30 points

2014 NC Senate Race

He would do worse than Kagan and lose to Thillis by 4 or 5 points.

IN Senate Race 2012

48-46 TDAS

2010 IL-Senate

49-45 Not Madigan, only Cook goes to Giannoulias

WI-SEN 2012

I'd say you do about the same as Tammy Baldwin.

US Presidential Election 2016

Trading far-right support for a better showing among moderate indies, libertarians, and conservadems, you would match Trump state for state with three exceptions: Michigan flips back to the Democrats, while Maine and New Hampshire go Republican.

AZ-SEN 2018, vs. Flake and vs. Ward?

http://hostthenpost.org/uploads/67c2e689f46de4d00b38b52708fae844.jpg

you win in both(flake wins maricopa,ward doesn't


MS sen 2000
(county map)
(I run as a economic lib, right socially'and deficit hawk)