Talk Elections

Will Tom Wolf win another term, or will he be the third one-term Tom?

Ridge is NOT a one-term Tom, he was elected to serve two terms. There's a difference between resigning to join the cabinet and being defeated for reelection.

Make that second one-term Tom.

I'll say yes because governors usually win re-election. It could go either way though.

There's a very good chance Rauner loses in IL.

I think he is referring to governors from swing states or states friendly to the governors party.

I think that Tom Wolf wins reelection during a midterm with a Republican president in office, but his victory is by no means guaranteed.

No, I'm referring to governors in general.

Rauner is the only governor I think is likely to lose; he has a lot going against him. But he could still pull off a victory.

Most likely Penn don't ususally kick governors out unless they are really bad an Tom has been meh

Wasn't that always the case in PA before Corbett lost in 2014?

Yes, it was since the 1970s when governors were allowed to run for a second term.

But yes, Wolf is probably headed for a second term. I see no strong GOP candidate and with a Trump midterm, he should be able to win. However, I'm not sure by which margin. Probably the election is a little closer than 2014.

This.

I think Wolf is going to be at least on the bottom of the Democratic Ticket in 2020 if he wins.

With Trump in office and deeply unpopular he's going to win, likely comfortably.

Wolf is probably going to have a tough race on his hands, but I think ultimately he's not nearly as unpopular as Corbett and will probably win narrowly. The Republican field against Wolf will probably be pretty good though, so I'd rate this Tilt D Toss-up if I'm just viewing it from a 50,000 foot view.

I think PA-2018 will be like MI-2006. They weren't very spectacular, but a midterm wave propelled them to a second term.

I don't think Wolf will be a vice-presidential candidate. He seems to have no national ambitions. He'll also be 72 in 2020.