Talk Elections

VA-10: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-jennifer-wexton-says-she-will-challenge-rep-barbara-comstock/2017/04/19/9d92fcf0-2538-11e7-bb9d-8cd6118e1409_story.html?utm_term=.fafff3a0696c) Democrats top choice, State Senator Jennifer Wexton, jumped in to challenge Comstock
TX-32: (https://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-politics/2017/04/19/former-nfl-player-colin-allred-launches-campaign-unseat-pete-session) Former NFL player Colin Allred launches campaign to challenge Pete Sessions
KS-03: (https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/854394477825413121/photo/1) Jay Sidie is fundraising for another shot at Yoder


Regularly-updated retirement / open seat spreadsheet (DKE):  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12RhR9oZZpyKKceyLO3C5am84abKzu2XqLWjP2LnQDgI/edit#gid=0


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Mod note (1/1/2018):  Added open seat / retirement spreadsheet link

We can do better in KS-03...

I'm hoping we find solid recruits for CA-10, CA-21, and CA-39.

Solomon Ortiz Jr. is thinking about running for his dad's old seat (currently held by Blake Farenthold) of the courts redistrict the map https://www.texastribune.org/2017/04/18/2018-texas-congressional-races-begin-take-shape/?utm_campaign=trib-social-buttons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Angie Craig is reportedly looking for a rematch in MN-02

Rudy Salas is the optimal recruit for CA-21. He just lost his Assembly Committee chairmanship for voting against Jerry Brown's gas tax increase--perhaps that will push him to run for congress where I'm sure the Democrats will be much more welcoming to a moderate member...

Newman's win was a total fluke. Dems would be much better off in CA-39 with Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva, a former Fullerton City Councilmember. She won a resounding victory in a tough race this year, centered on the Orange County portion of the district.

Though he is based more in Merced County, Assemblyman Adam Gray would be a good get for CA-10, or perhaps, we could rerun the astronaut John Hernandez or State Sen. Cathleen Galgiani.

Why is Wexton the top recruit anyway?

Here's what DKE (http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/4/21/1654827/-Morning-Digest-Jennifer-Wexton-kicks-off-bid-against-Barbara-Comstock-in-anti-Trump-Virginia-seat) had:


Sounds like this could be a busy primary however:

Speaking as someone who lives in Newman's district, I wouldn't exactly call him a fluke. He beat former Irvine mayor Kang in the top-two primary, who was the establishment choice. Newman ran a pretty good campaign in the primary, and had very good signs. Chang was also a top-tier recruit. My one-man focus group (my dad), is a much bigger fan of Newman than Kang. Besides which, I don't see him losing during a Trump presidential year. If he wants to run for higher office, he has plenty of time. I could see Quirk running against (though unlikely after having just been reelected), but my dad would prefer Jay Chen run again. Other than that, the bench is pretty thin.
Edit: Oh yeah and Obama endorsed Newman, which isn't common for state legislative races.

Okay, I'll take your word for it on Newman. I mean, he won a tough campaign so he must have done something right. But, needless to say, he didn't have the profile that you would really expect for a winning candidate for state senate in California...

I agree that Jay Chen would also be potentially an interesting candidate. I was quite disappointed in Murdock's showing. I thought that as a mayor of one of the conservative areas of the district, he had a good profile to make a dent in Royce's numbers....but he didn't really get very far.

La Habra Mayor Rose Espinoza? Fullerton's Jesus Silva? The problem with the Dem-leaning areas of LA County is they are unincorporated and don't have city officials--except GOP-leaning Diamond Bar and Walnut.

She simply has the highest name ID for any Democrat in the district considering she represents a large swath of Loudoun and some parts of Fairfax. Outside of her and Kathleen Murphy, the State House rep in the district Comstock used to represent, the Democratic bench is kinda weak here.

Comstock is also more cunning than you'd imagine, and Wexton is easily the best campaigner of the bunch to counter her.

Democrats partner with political newcomers aiming to create anti-Trump wave in 2018 midterms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-partner-with-political-newcomers-hoping-to-create-anti-trump-wave-in-2018-midterms/2017/04/21/91514ec8-2502-11e7-bb9d-8cd6118e1409_story.html

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Some names mentioned there

I do wonder why NY seems to have a recruitment problem and we don't hear about a people like Stephanie A. Miner hungry to Katko or Bellone wanting King like we are hearing about in California or Virginia

Probably but my point was NY is still blue heavy an hates the Donald but dems seem to have a an early recruiting problem here

NY-2 doesn't hate Trump.  It voted 53-44 for Trump.  Suffolk County and the south shore of Nassau County that is in NY-2 isn't as heavily blue as you think.

I know it's not heavy blue but King has been making mistakes like Lee Zeldin in skipping town halls that look really bad

Really bad to whom?  The 10 people who know he's skipping town halls?  It hasn't been much of an issue here, where most congressmen are pretty anonymous because there are too many of them to constantly show up on the NYC metro TV news.  At least King pops up on TV from time to time, usually when national security issues come up.

King is the very definition of an entrenched incumbent.  He can get away with skipping town halls and not draw a good opponent.  His seat swung toward the Republicans last cycle, not against them (Obama won the district in 2012).  Zeldin can't get away with that as easily.

VA-5: Roger Dean Huffstetler announces a run (http://www.nbc29.com/story/35201951/charlottesville-man-intends-to-run-for-5th-district-congress-seat)

Don't know much about this guy other than that he's a Marine and a Iraq War vet from Charlottesville, and that he has 72.9k followers on Twitter already.

I'm just happy to see some more Gen X/Millennial Democrats getting into the ring finally.

Four Democrats in CA-45. Four! And the race hasn't even come close to filling up yet.

IA-3: Pete D'Alessandro will announce a bid on Tuesday. He was the top Iowa staffer for Bernie Sanders in 2016.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/25/pete-dalessandro-congress-iowa-bernie-sanders-staffer

Endorsed to the ends of the earth.

CA-22 (Nunes, R): Andrew Janz (D), prosecutor for the Fresno County District Attorney’s office says he will run.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/4/25/1655146/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-4-25#update-1493133645000

VA-10 (Comstock, R): Dorothy McAuliffe (D), wife of Gov. Terry McAuliffe, is weighing a run.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/dorothy-mcauliffe-wife-of-va-governor-is-testing-the-waters-for-a-congressional-run/2017/04/25/7fdf9ac4-2920-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.a91581534ca5

Oh for the love of God

I highly doubt it, and she wouldn't beat Wexton in a primary or in a convention.

State Rep. Carol Ammons has formed an exploratory comittee for a run in IL-13. (http://www.sj-r.com/news/20170425/state-rep-ammons-announces-exploratory-committee-for-us-house-run) Ammons' seat is in the Champaign-Urbana area, and received an endorsement and funding from Bernie Sanders in her last election.

Unelectable, we need Andy Manar

The fact that she's even considering probably means Manar isn't interested. I say give her a shot.

I'm from Texas 32nd. I was born and raised here, and have lived my entire life here. And I am telling everyone that Colin Allred doesn't have a chance on God's green earth to win the district, unless it's territory was seriously redrawn. The only semi-feasible way for any democrat to even possibly consider having a fighting chance to represent the district in congress is for someone like Mike Rawlings to attempt to ride a coattail backlash against Trump in 2020. The only reason the district slightly bent for Clinton was because of the pure disgust for Trump. I can guarantee you that this is no lasting effect, should the composition of the district stay intact as is. For the Presidential result, the dems gained 7 points, and the reps lost 11 in the district. Meaning a substantial loss went to third parties, and the rest that went to the dems on the the presidential level were moderate center right wing suburban women. Not a permanent effect. Heck, there was not much of an effect at all on the district even in 2016, except on the presidential level.

I will give an example, there are countless more places in the district that experienced this sort of an effect:

My precinct, no.2018 in the district went:

40% Clinton, 56% Trump. 

But the straight party voters which represent a little over half the voters in my precinct went

28% Democrat, 71% Republican.

The full votes down ballot were also ruby red such as:

Railroad Commissioner: 26% Democrat, 65% Republican

Supreme Court Place 3: 28% Democrat, 67% Republican

Supreme Court Place 5: 31% Democrat, 65% Republican

State Rep: 25% Democrat, 72% Republican

Sheriff: 35% Democrat, 62% Republican

And several other down-ticket positions that went republican by similar margins. The district has not gone blue, it was an optical illusion. Democrats, we need to focus our efforts elsewhere. Texas 32nd is not feasible to win without significant redrawing, especially on a local level. Look elsewhere to pick up seats, sadly, this is not one of them.

This kinda fits here:

Collin Peterson is going for another term. (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/collin-peterson-running-re-election-next-year)

MI-11: Dems have recruited Haley Stevens (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/27/stevens-michigan-congress-trott/100988340/). Stevens, only 33, was chief of staff to President Obama’s Auto Task Force in 2009 when it was overseeing the financial rescue of Chrysler and General Motors.

MI-11 is a 50-45 Trump district. Rep. Dave Trott beat his last challenger 53-40.

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

As opposed to the Republicans who have so far recruited such heavy hitters as Josh Mandel and...uh....Curt Schilling?

CNN/ORC: (http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/28/politics/poll-congress-health-care-repeal-replace-unlikely/index.html)

50% Democrats
41% Republicans




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mod edit (6/5/2017): Here is the 538 Generic Ballot polls thread:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/


mod edit (7/7/2017): CFP midterm loss regression analysis:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/generic-ballot-model-gives-democrats-early-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/


()


()

Telling it now house will flip

IIRC, Dems dominated in the generic congressional poll in late 2013, only to be immediately overtaken by the Republicans because of the ACA rollout.

Americans are fickle.

Apples to oranges Obama was president but a (R) is now

It's a good number, but I still think we need to see consistent double digits for Democrats from a whole range of different polls for a long time to have a real shot at a big wave. Take the 2006 question results:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

Democrats dominated for over a year prior to the election, mostly getting double digits, only to underperform by election day. If Democrats averaged only 8 - 9 points on this question by Nov 2018 and underperformed, that would be disappointing, all things considered. I don't think it is guaranteed that Democrats underperform, but it has happened in a number of elections.

However, one thing not to be glossed over here is just how soon Republicans are tanking in this kind of poll. It does seem eerily reminiscent of 2006 (scroll down on link above to 2005)

Anywho, we'll see.

And these candidates have what in common?

Kyrsten Sinema in AZ has clearly been fundraising with an eye towards a Senate run, and its clear other Democrats who may be interested are waiting for her decision. Nevada Democratic leadership seem to want Kate Marshall in NV, though that race is still kind of unclear.

Keep in mind that lots of successful recent swing-state Senate campaigns (like Cory Gardner's in 2014, or Angus King's in 2012) only kicked off the year of the election, rather than the year before. There's still plenty of time.

I wouldn't expect many to declare this early for 2018. Unless, Ossoff does win the runoff in June then I expect candidates to flood the races. Even more so if the media cycle is bad for Trump and the Republicans.

This is a defence cycle for Dems.  Nothing sad about having no candidates yet in these two states.  Much better than Republicans who have no heavy hitters in the 6 or so Trump Dem states.

I think Sinema is going to run.
Regarding NV, I don't know.

Candidates in NV and AZ are crucial to preventing the Republicans from making a lot of Senate gains. That said, I'm not too worried since pretty much anyone will work in NV, and Sinema seems likely to run in AZ.

I've never understood enthusiasm for a candidate who is openly bisexual and atheist running statewide in Arizona. Maybe it's my internalized homophobia, but that seemed like a stretch.

Would Jonathan Rothschild be a good canidate aganist McSally https://mobile.twitter.com/ericawerner/status/860138281064943617

These are good results. Early but looks good so far. I think the Democrats will win the House in 2018.

FL-18: Attorney Pam Keith (D), who came in 3rd in in last years FL-Sen primary, is weighing a bid against Brian Mast (http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/05/05/former-dem-senate-hopeful-pam-keith-explores-challenge-of-rep-brian-mast/)


Personally, I like Rep. Randall Friese, who's been talked about as a statewide candidate recently. Holds a swingy Tucson based seat, and before he was a politician he was a trauma surgeon who treated Giffords and other victims of the Tucson shooting.

TX-23 (Will Hurd, R): EMILY's List is looking at some potential non-Gallego recruits.


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/05/congressman-will-hurd-texas-republican-profile-215102

There's totally a scenario where the AHCA dies in the Senate and completely fades from public memory by the time November 2018 rolls around. Not ready to start celebrating yet.

^ Well, being a pro-choice is not neccessarily a big plus in this district...

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/may/04/lisa-brown-stepping-down-as-wsu-spokane-chancellor/) is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.

Brown played a key role in bringing the WSU medical school to Spokane, which has been great for the city. Spokane City Council President Ben Stuckart is already in the race. It's pretty exciting to see a competitive primary for this off the radar seat.

^ Really good candidate. But district is still difficult. For any Democrat...

That wouldn't stop "Congressman X voted to take away your health care" ads.

David Jolly told Poltico he is seeing serious early warning signs for 2018 http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/06/obamacare-repeal-house-2018-238064

You know what, until I see dems with consistent double digit leads in Oklahoma's governors race in October 2018, I'm not believing it.

Hillarycare never went to a vote but still cost Bill Clinton both houses of Congress in 1994.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/blvmt31w4l/econTabReport.pdf

Yougov:
Democrats - 38
Republicans - 35
Not Sure - 17
Other - 3

Ds should consider mounting a serious challenge against Chris Collins, I remember Lee Terry made that stupid comment about his paycheck during the shutdown in 2013 and it cost him.

Looks like Kathy Hochul is being recruited for a rematch against Collins hopefully she follows through with it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/06/us/politics/health-care-vote.html

Former Cuomo aide Gareth Rhodes will challenge John Faso (NY-19).

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/05/07/former-cuomo-aide-to-challenge-faso-111866

Laura Moser, founder of Daily Action, is running in TX-7 against John Culberson.

https://moserforcongress.com

"Rhodes will move back to his native home of upstate New York"

Didn't we go through this with the last two candidates for this seat?

MN-03: Wealthy businessman Dean Phillips (D) (http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/05/06/dean-phillips-3rd-district) is officially IN against Eric Paulsen.

NY-24: The DCCC is reportedly very close to recruiting Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner. Miner had previously declined to run in 2016.

Well neither of them ever lived in the district.  He has at least spent some of his life there.

Miner would be a big get. The suburbs of course are where Katko has had his margins but she'd be the top recruit bar none

NE-02: Former Rep. Brad Ashford and his wife Ann Ashford will announce which one of them will run for Congress on Wednesday (http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/brad-ashford-considering-a-rematch-with-don-bacon-for-u/article_0fe82952-2503-5c9f-8f91-40d78835916e.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share) after Tuesday's Omaha Mayor election.

NY-27: Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul reportedly being approached to challenge Chris Collins  (http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/8/1660101/-Trumpcare-pusher-Chris-Collins-could-face-a-tough-race-if-Kathy-Hochul-seeks-a-rematch-next-year)

DCCC is trying to recruit Jim Gray (who may or may not be interested) for a run in KY-6 against Andy Barr.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/861640729172611075

He'd be a huge get, one who'd instantly make this a tossup (tilt R at worst).

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley. (http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-actor-antonio-sabato-jr-running-for-1494275652-htmlstory.html)

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district :P

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

most americans don't think about "Antonio Sabato Jr". He's not even the most prominent flop celebrity to back Trump - Scott Baeo is.

This is true, but the point is that most of the name recognition that he has is separate from the crazy stuff he's said.

This won't be even a serious contest. Brownley won by a 20 point margin last year while Hillary garnered a 22 point win here. The climate right now is cold for Republicans as well to run in districts like CA-26 in the era of Trump as well.

News at 11.

Last cycle was basically the perfect storm for Republicans to crash in this district: a Republican Presidential nominee who was anathema to both Latinos and suburban whites, no Senate candidate, and an unfunded nobody as the Republican Congressional candidate. Two years earlier, Brownley only narrowly defeated her Republican opponent.

I think that a Republican could win in the ideal climate. However, I don't think 2018 is likely to be that climate, Brownley is a near-perfect fit for the district, and the more I read about Sabato, the less I think he's even close to being that Republican.

However, it should still be interesting, if only for the fact that Sabato is an... interesting... guy

Why is Michael Hein not talking about running for 2018? Faso is vulnerable and he is popular

RIP Dold vs. Schneider (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-robert-dold-10th-district-no-rematch-met-0510-20170509-story.html)

I notice that there are a lot of Democrats running in CA-50 against Duncan Hunter. Anyone know why?


Also, is anyone planning on running in CA-21 against Valadao? He should be a top target.

He'd be a great choice. Curious about that too

Hysterically high "Not sure" number for YouGOV.

Duncan Hunter is being investigated by the DOJ, IIRC.

also RIP any chance Republicans have at this district, and yes, that includes Mark Kirk trying to win back his old district after his embarrassing 2016 Senate campaign.

I suppose they are basically doing this on a weekly basis now. 5/10/17 Yougov numbers:

Democrats - 40 (+2)
Republicans - 35 (+/-)
Not Sure - 16 (-1)
Other - 3 (+/-)

Crosstabs and such : http://tiny.cc/64f3ky page 110 / question #96

Q-Poll (From May 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. )

Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 38
Undecided - 8

Wow.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

Maybe it's an outlier, but...wow indeed.  If this is anywhere close, 2018 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.

I would be surprised if that gap holds. Republicans always rally at the end and you end up with a smaller gap.

Probably. Democrats tend to underperform their generic ballot numbers. However, even if that gap does shrink, it would still portend a blowout. Shave 6 points off and you're still at a 10% PV win, which could definitely flip the House. I'm not getting excited until I see many different polls showing similar results for more than just a blip in time. Unless this is the beginning of a sustained downward spiral, it remains something of an outlier.

For what it's worth, and it might not be a lot, but the question is "what party do you want to win control of the House?", not "what party would you vote for?"

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

No surprise that Blum is in serious danger.

I think Poliquin will be safe but Blum is in serious trouble and I can see Upton going down over the AHCA

I feel that if 2018 will be a significant wave, Poliquin could be taken down by a star recruit - Troy Jackson, perhaps?

I was watching a video of protesting in Fred Upton's district. Obama won the district in 2012, so I wouldn't doubt it given a favorable national mood.

Along with what others said about the weird wording of the question, this was taken following the House's passage of the AHCA so that could explain it.

https://youtu.be/-w7ENxNjO4E?t=3m13s

Terry McAuliffe's wife Dorothy will not be running for Congress.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/dorothy-mcauliffe-wife-of-virginia-governor-says-she-will-not-run-for-congress/2017/05/10/19f62b32-35a1-11e7-b412-62beef8121f7_story.html?utm_term=.06b223e4b4d7

Moderate Hero Wulfric types blaming both sides equally?

Moderates usually blame both sides. Which deserve it. As an old saying goes: "plague on both your houses"....))))

Interesting article about FL-15. While this seat isn't on the competitive radar, the fact that it has multiple democratic candidates this early is promising. IIRC Dennis Ross ran unopposed in 2012 so even just having someone is better than Democrats have done in the past.

This seat swung heavily toward Trump (56-39) but Romney only won it 52-46. These are the types of seats that need to be challenged even if the prospect of winning is slim.

http://saintpetersblog.com/cd-15-hopeful-greg-pilkington-believes-2018-will-big-democrats-including/

Dems have a good candidate in IA-01 in Dubuque State Rep Abby Finkenauer:

https://www.facebook.com/Abby4Congress/

1st term legislator but fits the "Obama" mold pretty well in a district he carried by 13 points in 2012.

Sure, sometimes both sides have problems, but centrism worship is the worst. It's basically not having an opinion at all. Too afraid to be committed to an actual intellectual position. Pure cowardice.

That's really great. IA-01 belongs with Dems not some loony Tea Partier. Hopefully Hillary's image hasn't permanently damaged the party's strength there.

TBF, Hillary only lost IA-01 by 4 points, so it's not exactly ruby red.

Also, let's not forget that Republicans represented IA-01 and IA-02 (slightly different geographic make up, but similar) before the 2006 wave.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/862677191880060929

Richard Ojeda in for the Dems in WV-03. Great recruit, extremely tough district.

Great!  Ojeda's definitely an A-list recruit.

Wow! This is exactly the kind of recruit you need to win here. Great get

New PPP poll for Stop The Speaker has Ryan at -8% in his own district, 48% would like someone new (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5848c30c579fb38fb7a6d309/t/59145876f5e23191b70500fb/1494505752443/WI1Results+%282%29.pdf)

Kirkpatrick considering to move to #AZ-02 and challenging Mcsally

Oh hey that guy! Awesome recruit.

Super happy about this recruit. I hope he wins.

She is a graduate of the University of Arizona in Tucson.

Skeptical that such an obvious carpetbag would work. Did she carry this district in her Senate run?

My ideal candidates for AZ-02 are Rep. Randall Friese or former Rep. Stefanie Mach. Either one of them has a personal background that could let them crucify McSally on healthcare.

Looks like Bryan Caforio is going to announce a rematch bid for CA-25 against Steve Knight.

https://twitter.com/BryanCaforio/status/862390491559505920

I don't think AZ is a state where carpetbagging does matter to be honest. She lost this district by 3 points against Mccain for the record.

By all accounts ran a weak campaign last year. Hope for someone better.

You'd probably like Katie Hill, already running for this seat

He lives in WI-02 IIRC. Though he has been mentioned as a possible candidate for WI-03, and WI-06 in the past as well LOL.

He was born and raised in Janesville and went to the same high school as Ryan.

Feingold has proven that he can't win, and when he does it's never a comfortable victory.

You don't need "name recognition" a year and a half out to win a House seat.

Polls of 61 districts show that Generic Democrats could win the House in 2014.

Link (https://front.moveon.org/polls-of-61-districs-show-dems-could-win-sizable-house-majority-next-year/#.WRUzZOUrKUk)

Generic Democrats now lead GOP incumbents in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown.

Guess how many won....I guess Gary Miller?

Man dems are getting the A list recruits to run

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

That is a blue trending district and "carpetbagging" isn't a real attack in Arizona from what I've heard

Kirkpatrick isn't really a "generic" Dem. She recently lost the Senate race, including losing this district, so even ignoring "carpetbagging" there are reasons to believe she's not the best candidate.

Hmm... who would be the best candidate? Mayor Jonathan Rothschild of Tucson?

Maybe. I don't know much about the situation on the ground there; I just think that Kirkpatrick doesn't strike me as a winning candidate.

Randall Friese
Stefanie Mach

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

Hernandez would be an excellent recruit, too bad Hochul isn't running against Collins though :(

That was with a Democrat in the White House.

He won it in 2008.  Romney won the 6th 50%-49%. 

PPP: D 49, R 38.  A month ago they had it 47-41.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html)

Not good!

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

The S.S. Trumptanic has hit an iceberg and, unfortunately, vulnerable republicans are in third class and will go down with the ship.

Most interestingly this is with a good economy (relatively). They shouldn't be at this level of damage this early.

MN-3 (Erik Paulsen, R): Vodka and Gelato Tycoon Dean Phillips (D) is running.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/erik-paulsen-dean-phillips-minnesota

To be honest she would have been a heavy underdog, Trump +25 quite massive lead.

Collins has been making tons of unforced errors and is being investigated for insider trading IIRC.

Hochul also only lost that district to Collins by like 2 points a few years ago.

Bad!

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portun (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2017/05/12/px-todd-portune-congress-washington-dems-court-commish/101466688/)e, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

5/17 yougov weekly tracking numbers:

Democrats - 40 (+/-)
Republicans - 33 (-2)
Not Sure - 16 (+/-)
Other - 3 (+/-)

Crosstabs and such: http://tiny.cc/9197ky
question number 101/page 115

NY-19: Hospital executive Sue Sullivan (D) (https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653059/hosptial-exec-launches-bid-unseat-faso?mref=hotline-landing) is in.

Sullivan describes herself as a "lifelong resident" of the district.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way. 

Oddly, one poster on Daily Kos claimed that Portune was "cool" because he is gay. He's not. Gay.

Another questioned his ability to run because of his physical handicaps.

Jeez.

An opPortune recruit. Sorry. I'll leave the premises.

Seems like a potentially good candidate.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

This is what really surprises me. God help them if the business cycle recession is during the 2018 midterms. Although the advantage in that scenario is that the economy will likely be recovering by 2020.

My impression is that we are so polarized now that the economy just doesn't matter as much as it did in e.g. the mid 20th century.  Obama and Clinton didn't get much credit for the recovery in 2014 or 2016, after all.  The late 19th century was a similar environment, in that only the two most severe downturns in a 30 year period (1873 and 1893) actually caused a wave election.  That having been said, it would be unprecedented in US history to get all the way to 2021 without a recession.

You're right on the credit giving, although I think that might be partially due to an uneven recovery (on numerous levels). However, a wave election due to a recession certainly seems possible still. It just might not have the reach it did even as early as 2008, which was enabled in part by some circumstances that are no longer relevant.

What might be up for more debate is exactly how rough the recession would need to be to generate a certain kind of wave. 2008 was pretty bad, after all.

MI-8 (Mike Bishop, R): Former Defense Dept. official Elissa Slotkin considering a run.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/18/1663669/-Former-Defense-Department-official-Elissa-Slotkin-mulling-bid-against-Michigan-GOP-Rep-Mike-Bishop


CO-6: (Mike Coffman, R): Former Obama energy official Levi Tillemann forms exploritory committee.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/18/1663721/-Former-Obama-energy-official-Levi-Tillemann-forms-committee-against-Colorado-Rep-Mike-Coffman

It could be pretty bad given that the underlying symptoms of the Great Recession haven't really been addressed (stagnant wages, very little inflation, private debt, etc.) If this isn't improved on and a recession hits then 2018 will be pretty ugly for the GOP.

CA-39 (Ed Royce, R): Orange County Pediatrician Mai-Khanh is running.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/congress-the-doctors-will-see-you-now/527244/

MN-8 (Rick Nolan, D): If Nolan runs for Governor, Former Grand Marais Mayor and Cook County commissioner Sue Hakes (D) might run. She just formed an exploratory committee.

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/politics/4270567-hakes-exploring-run-8th-district-seat

MN-1 (Tim Walz, D): Walz is retiring to run for Governor, and Army Veteran Dan Feehan (D) is "preparing to run".

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-enlist-veterans-ahead-of-2018-house-elections-1495394418

OH-1 (Steve Chabot, R): In addition to Portune, the DCCC is also looking at Cincinnati councilman P.G. Sittenfield.

http://wvxu.org/post/do-democrats-believe-they-have-real-shot-defeating-chabot#stream/0

What's John Barrow up to? Could he make a come back? Or is the GA-12 too far gone for the Ds?

PG should stay put. His image is intact, but that's lucky. If he runs for the House and fails, he looks far too ambitious.

Sort of related, DCCC is now targeting IN-02. Buttigieg is an obvious go-to.

This.  Portune is a far better candidate.

Barrow took a resident scholar position at University of Georgia, funnily enough his class is about political polarization and gerrymandering. Not something that would preclude him from running again.

GA-12 went from 55-43 Romney to 56-40 Trump. I doubt he runs, giving up a nice teaching job to run in a district that was drawn specifically to make you lose is a lot to ask.

^ And given present level of political polarization in his and similar southern districts. There are simply not enough Blacks there, and most of the whites stopped to vote for ANY Democratic candidates... ANY, except, may be, a very local levels.

Donald Trump's Michigan chairwoman is running for Senate against Stabenow:

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/05/trumps_michigan_co-chair_annou.html

This probably won't be any different from the last several Senate Elections here. Republicans will nominate a joke candidate (past examples include Ronna Romney, Rocky Raczkowski, Mike Bouchard, Pete Hoekstra, and Terri Lynn Land) who gets crushed in a landslide.

In a state completely dominated by Republicans at the state level and in the House, you'd think they'd find someone electable to run for the Senate.

Some of them started out somewhat formidable, but self-destructed. Still, yeah. Epstein is literally super tied to Trump, so she has little crossover appeal. And Stabenow is a pretty strong incumbent with strong ties to the state's agriculture groups.

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Issaquah City Councilmember Tola Marts is running against Reichert in WA-8. Marts sounds like exactly my favorite kind of Democrat, but then again, I'm not a WA-8 voter, and I don't suspect I'm close what a swing voter in the district looks like, so we shall see:

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/issaquah-councilmember-tola-marts-to-challenge-dave-reichert-in-8th-district

A stronger recruit then they have had in the past

The attack ad writes itself.

Well, district became somewhat more conservative in last redistricting, IIRC, so the ablity to appeal to swing voters is a plus for Democratic candidate here...We shall see..

http://tiny.cc/ve8ely (Page 130)

Weekly Yougov poll:
Democrats  - 38 (-2)
Republicans  - 36 (+3)
Not Sure - 17 (+1)
Others - 2 (-1)

Nate Silver,



Source. (https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/868117225613479937)

Legitimate question: How much clout should we continue to give Silver after his seriously botched 2016 prediction.

Legitimate question: do you follow Nate at all or are you unaware he was constantly saying Trump had a shot an all the big swing states are with MOE?

Sweating like a dog!

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/04/25/democrat-pete-dalessandro-exploring-congressional-run-iowas-3rd-district/306376001/) has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

At least Silver actually gave Trump a chance to win the election. As a matter of fact, in his model he acknowledged that he had an unusually high chance of winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

Plus, other analysts didn't give Trump a chance at all.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

He was also backed by the Montana political establishment. The Quist loss had more to do with his individual weakness as a candidate than his Bernie association. Most of those weaknesses weren't known by anybody until it was too late.

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

Agree. And don't understand why establishment backed him. Even his some initial positions (before personal flaws became known), like strong support for gun control, were very difficult to sell in Montana

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

Do you REALLY think that i care about your opinion??? Not even funny,,,, In fact - i relish such comments from such persons)))

Dude, get over yourself.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

Saw the last name, thought it was Weird Al. Was disappointed.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

Yes, but IIRC didn't OH-1 have boundaries all within Hamilton County? Its PVI is notably more GOP friendly with the addition of Warren.

Sittenfeld would honestly be better vs Chabot, IMO

From Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

That'd be what, 70 seats or so?

It's currently 239R, 193D, and 3 vacancies.  One of the vacancies is CA-34, which is about to be filled by a Democrat (both candidates in the runoff are D) so that's effectively 194.  So it would be a shift of about 65 to 67.

Nope.

()


Eh. PG would play worse in the Butler county segments.

Went to the Democratic District Convention for District 10 and two of the people there had set up exploratory committees on entering the race for the district. Do I remember who they were? No. Could there have been more people who didn't go? Yes.

But what I do know is that District 10 will almost definitely be contested in 2018, and that people are looking towards running right now.

Curiouser and Curiouser:

Ex-GOP Rep Richard Hanna considering running for Congress in NY22 - as an Independent. District currently held by GOPer Claudia Tenney. Apparently there is some bad blood between them, and this would certainly open up the district for a Dem pickup opportunity.

http://wibx950.com/richard-hanna-for-congress-again-former-representatives-candid-take-on-washington/

I think Hanna would more likely caucus with the Dems unless the Republicans majorly repudiate Trumpism and the President, so it could possibly be more wise to "sit out" this election and explicitly or implicitly support Hanna.

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th. (http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/06/ken_harbaugh_former_us_navy_pi.html#incart_river_index)

Trump won this district by 30 points on a huge swing from 2012. Good luck with that.

A really good read on dem recruitment in California https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/us/democrats-bid-to-regain-hold-on-house-begins-in-california.html?referer=https://t.co/WkeORrhLs2?amp=1

Ohio already has a phenomenal candidate running for Treasurer in State Rep. David Leland.

Harbaugh has a big uphill battle, but Gibbs only ("only") won the district by 13 points in '12, and Zach Space pulled off a much bigger upset in a more conservative version of the 7th back in '06.

Can a man named Harbaugh win in Ohio, though?

5/31 Weekly Tracking numbers from yougov:
http://tiny.cc/jbzjly (page 107)

Democrats - 39 (+1)
Republicans - 33 (-3)
Others - 4 (+2)
Not Sure - 15 (-2)

The biggest obstacle, TBH.

Wow, that is one SERIOUSLY gerrymandered district even by Ohio standards.

I think the Dems should be cautiously optimistic, but a 5 point edge on the generic ballot isn't that bad.

Mary Sally Matiella, a CPA who served in the Obama Defense Department as assistant secretary of the Army, is considering challenging Martha McSally in AZ-2.

Kenneth Queen is running for NC-10, Patrick McHenry's seat. White, straight, married with three (I think, judging from photos) kids, and a military background. His website has a issues page, but it's not very flushed out and there is nothing really specific. A "strong supporter" of the Second Amendment, Medicare-for-all, pro-choice but for free birth control and "fact based sex education" among other things to lessen the need for abortion, education as a right (not sure if this refers to free-college, or just fighting further restrictions), for a secure border (nothing about amnesty), and 100% renewable energy by 2035.

http://www.queenforcongress.com/issues/

He apparently spoke at a March for Truth rally here in Asheville, NC today (June 3rd). I did not attend, but it is reported on their website.

https://indivisibleavl.org/06-01-2017/march-for-truth-against-russianties-on-saturday-june-3/

"White, straight, married, with three children, military background" is good for this district. Pro-choice? Not so much, probably...

This guy sounds like my political spirit animal

His immigration policy leaves a lot to be desired, but at the same time everything else seems great. Endorsed.

Somebody who can actually take down Rohrabacher in an Orange County district that voted for Clinton. (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CC235br1Eqo)

I was wondering do the dems have anyone good to take on Carlos Curbelo?

538 is now out with a generic congressional ballot tracker. (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/)

We need a Hispanic version of Joe Machin that looks something like this ()

That's really the only hope for dems to take the district as is.

^wtf?



On topic: Spokane City Council President Ben Stuckart is dropping out of WA-05 due to family health concerns:

()

Update: Ammons will decide on June 15th, and she isn't dumb: (http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2017-06-05/congressional-seat-ammons-still-gauging-support.html)

Apparently Herb Kohl's nephew is debating getting in vs Grothman?

Are there any rumors of Ds recruting Lynwood Lewis jr for Vir 2nd? Be a great land

wow this is dumb and bad even by atlas standards

anyway, most of the Dem oxygen in the area is currently being taken up by the races for FL-27, SD-40, and HD-116—the 27th is probably easier for a Dem to win than the 26th and is an open seat, so most Dems are trying for that one. nothing really going on with the Curbelo challenger - I assume he'll get one, but it'll be at least after the SD-40 election.

Quinnipiac poll: (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2463)


Democratic Party 51% (-3)
Republican Party 39% (+2)


Democratic Party 52%
Republican Party 39%

Martha McSally in a private talk to the Arizona Bankers Association:


 

Haven't seen anything posted on this. Mike Hartley, an Iraq war vet, is running against Brooks in IN-05. He did a Reddit AMA  (https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/6g2tco/my_name_is_mike_hartley_and_i_am_running_for/)yesterday and laid out what can best be described as a Sanders-esque platform. His candidacy will be an interesting test case for those who wish Ossoff would run further to the left. GA-06 and IN-05 are pretty similar districts and, while it weren't the case, I just can't see Hartley's platform winning in IN-05.

Biden encourages Mitt Romney to run for Senate (http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/biden-encourages-mitt-romney-to-run-for-senate/)

I really hope this happens. There are few men left in American politics with such honor and class.

PPP poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_61217.pdf):


Democrat 50% (+1)
Republican 40% (+2)

NH-01: GOP state senator Andy Sanborn to challenge Carol Shea-Porter: http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-republican-andy-sanborn-announces-candidacy-for-1st-district-us-house-seat/10014030 (http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-republican-andy-sanborn-announces-candidacy-for-1st-district-us-house-seat/10014030)

Eh, I think CSP survives. Having Shaheen on the ticket helps her and Kusty (not like she needs any help)

His challenge also makes SD-9 an open seat next year, which should help Democrats take back the NH State Senate. That was a 47-46 Clinton seat.

Jeanne Shaheen is not up until 2020. Or is Stefany Shaheen running next year!? I hope she does, Sununu needs to lose before he runs for Senate and makes the NRSC waste money and resources that could be used for real winnable races for real conservative candidates.
Glorious news!

New Hampshire is the one place I support ultraconservative republicans, just because it would amuse me to see MT Treasurer's posts on a 60-40 win for them. :)

Phillip Price has tossed his hat into the ring to become the Democratic nominee from NC-11. Currently, as far as I know, the only other announced democratic candidate for the district is Matt CoffayCovfefe, a candidate I discussed in a previous thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=263629)*, although there is talk of a doctor out of Hendersonville preparing to run as well. While there is almost nothing about himself or his views on his website (https://price4wnc.com/)**, an article in "The Mountaineer" (http://www.themountaineer.com/news/phillip-price-leans-on-experience-compromise-in-race-for-congressional/article_3e332f36-46e5-11e7-a257-632c485c8eea.html)*** does a good job of explaining both who he is and what the main differences between himself and his established rival Covfefe are. It's a pretty short piece and doesn't have much fat to it, so I would suggest reading the whole thing, but the tl;dr is that he is a small business owner who is liberal, but not as much as Covfefe.

For those on mobile:
* https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=263629
** https://price4wnc.com/
*** http://www.themountaineer.com/news/phillip-price-leans-on-experience-compromise-in-race-for-congressional/article_3e332f36-46e5-11e7-a257-632c485c8eea.html

VA-05: heard Tom Perriello might need a job.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/yoder-gets-new-challenger-kansas

KS-03 : Children's health clinic president Andrea Ramsey is challenging Yoder

Matt Heinz to again challenge Martha McSally in AZ-02: http://tucson.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/matt-heinz-says-he-ll-have-another-go-at-martha/article_669a8d48-5054-11e7-b5ef-eb54ce48431e.html (http://tucson.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/matt-heinz-says-he-ll-have-another-go-at-martha/article_669a8d48-5054-11e7-b5ef-eb54ce48431e.html)

WA-04: Former news anchor Christine Brown files to run against Newhouse.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/newhouse-gets-challenger-washington

Interesting that so far two of Washington's house republicans have a challenger named Brown. We'll see who will stand against Buetler and Riechert.

Out of curiosity can any members of King County council run for Riechert seat? Cause if so dccc needs to get on recruiting someone from that group to run

The council districts that overlap with Reichert's district (Council districts 3, 7, and 9) also coincidentally happen to be the 3 districts Republicans still hold on the council.

Tim Canova is the one Democrat who would make me consider voting for DWS.

Just push that district into the Atlantic.

Rip my congressional district.

Eh, Canova's icky, but I find him far favorable to DWS.

()

Evan McMullin may run for UT-03. Damn. He sounds like he's still weighing a senate bid, but if Hatch runs, it's better for him to play it safe with UT-03, I don't know if Hatch is as unpopular as we think he is.

Or, he could know something we don't and not want to challenge Romney.

Paul Nehlen is back!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxhZuyyts7k

Truth Resurrection... Ressurection!

Ashford is back. (http://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/federal-politics/ashford-seeking-return-to-congress/article_6d61e743-92bc-51fa-aa33-7f17c6bb2f5b.html)

Also sounds like Mello isn't jumping in.

I'm not impressed with Ashford.  His narrow loss in 2016 would have been impressive had Hillary lost NE-02 by 10+ points (i.e. Baron Hill in 2004 in IN-09), but Hillary only lost the district by a point.  Any non-scandal tarred incumbent should have been able run a two points ahead of their Presidential nominee.

Michael Hein the 1st and current County Executive of Ulster County said he will make a decision on running against Faso in July http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/275229/democratic-field-in-ny-19-swells-to-six/

He should have squeeked by, but in his defense, he had one good opponent.

It could have been worse for Ashford. Remember he didn't initially take his fundraising seriously but then, when he realized how much trouble he was in, buckled down and actually improved?

Ann Kirkpatrick has officially opened an exploratory committee for AZ-02.

Morning Consult, conducted June 15-19:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27853

Dems 43%
GOP 37%

Yougov, conducted June 18-20:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-27851

Dems 38%
GOP 35%

NBC/WSJ, conducted June 17-20:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/amid-controversy-trump-s-approval-remains-low-steady-n775736

Dems 50%
GOP 42%

(Technically, the NBC poll might not be strictly a "generic ballot" poll, since it asks who you want to see control Congress, rather than who you will vote for.)

Man only 6 months in an dems lead by 8 already

Per Alex Burns Phoniex mayor Greg Staton is considering running aganist Flake https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/us/politics/health-care-bill-senate.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/btcK86kXDL?amp=1

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

I don't think Sinema would lose badly, but either way she's not running. Gallego would be a good candidate too.

Gallego can't win statewide in AZ, at least not yet.

People, try to convince Mark Kelly to run. In 2018 he would be tossup to tilt R vs flake, and tossup to tilt D vs Ward. And in 2022 if McCain leaves, then it will be anywhere from tossup to tilt D.

Not shocking but Ossoff is probably going to try again in 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/879417956639363072

What's the plan? Keep running until the voters no longer think he's too young?

Please God no. The guy is flakier than Jeff Flake.

Calling it right now
AZ senate race of 2022 will be Sinema v McSally
This should be why dems should take care of mcsally in '18, if she makes it to 2022, she will be the front runner for the sole purpose of her fundraising skills
Sinema is always playing the "I might run for senate" game to get more money, she did the same thing in '16 and will do the same this time around.

and to clarify - no I do not think McCain will run for re-election. Or he runs and is defeated in the primary, he has serious problems from within his party. A joke like kelli ward put 40% on him.

NY-22: State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi to challenge Rep. Claudia Tenney: http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/anthony_brindisi_to_challenge_claudia_tenney_for_congress_in_upstate_ny.html (http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/anthony_brindisi_to_challenge_claudia_tenney_for_congress_in_upstate_ny.html)

Boom son

Now thats a key race

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 6/21-6/25:

Democrats 48%
Republicans 38%

Source (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us170621_PBS_NPR/NPR_PBS%20NewsHour_Marist%20Poll_National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_Trump_Congress_Health%20Care_June%202017.pdf#page=3)

An there we go

Exciting until you remember at least 6% of those 14% undecideds are Republicans who "come home" after Halloween.

CO-6: Tillemann in. (https://coloradopolitics.com/democrat-levi-tillemann-plans-make-official-hes-running-colorados-6th-congressional-district/)

If you do the math here, you see he's chosen a last name other than the default for obvious reasons.

Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html) (6/25-6/27):


47% Democratic Candidate
41% Republican Candidate

Yougov/Economist, conducted June 25-27:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-27873

Dems 41%
GOP 35%

Democratic performance in the special elections actually seems to match up decently with the RCP average of +8pt on the generic ballot.

It could be the case that because of a gap in enthusiasm and the huge approval/disapproval gap among college educated whites that Democrats overperform their numbers next year, seeing as they are a higher turnout group that the GOP has relied a lot on in the past.

We'll see.

MA-7: Cambridge councilor Nadeem Mazen is primarying Capuano.  (https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/06/28/cambridge-councilor-plans-challenge-congressman-mike-capuano/q5dvnKBAMNVETxS5Sgwa8O/story.html)

Anyone know if any Democrat has floated a potential run or an announced run against Carlos Curbelo in FL-26? I've been curious about that race.

He's one of my favorites in congress, hoping he wins big in 2018.

Hahaha good luck w that.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Capuano is gonna send this guy into another dimension.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2471

Democrats 51 - 41 over Republicans in generic ballot.

Currently at least 64% among 18 - 34 year olds. Could be another 2008-level blowout among this group, which imo, long-term, is bad news bears for Republicans. Every election since 2004 they are setting new records for losing the youth vote by landslide margins. No party has ever lost that group this many times in a row, let alone by such huge margins.

Damn you morden. My incessant need to type long-winded posts slowed me down too much!

I deleted my post in order to give you the glory.  :)

most of the Dem oxygen in the area has been sucked up by FL-27, which is both easier for a Dem to win and an open seat. haven't heard anything about Curbelo.

IL-14: Montgomery Village President [is that really a title?] Matt Brolley to seek D nomination against GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.  http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/aurora-beacon-news/news/ct-abn-montgomery-mayor-congress-st-0630-20170629-story.html (http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/aurora-beacon-news/news/ct-abn-montgomery-mayor-congress-st-0630-20170629-story.html)

Yeah, Dems see a better opportunity in FL-27. That may end up saving Curbelo. I thought Annette Taddeo would maybe give FL-26 another shot (she would have been a much better candidate than Joe Garcia), but she recently announced she's running for state senate in an upcoming special election. If she wins that, maybe she'd go for Congress again.

So I did some research and being a local could you tell me if Kionne McGhee or Robert Asencio would be good canidates

FL-7: State Rep. Mike Miller running for R nomination against Rep. Stephanie Murphy.  http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-mike-miller-congress-20170629-story.html (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-mike-miller-congress-20170629-story.html)

Yeah, villages in the Midwest have Village Presidents and a Village Board.

Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC (June 23-27)
2018 Senate battleground states only
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/30/15900564/health-bill-politics-midterms

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 35%

Numbers are after hearing criticism of the Republican Health Care plan. Generic ballot before being exposed to this info is 48%-38% in favor of Dems.

Those are the real numbers. The bill has not actually passed yet, and voters do not actually think long-term.

#IL12: Brendan Kelly to run against Bost?
Kevin McDermott at STLToday.com: (http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/once-again-national-democrats-are-targeting-two-gop-metro-east/article_52f299af-f158-5488-a17f-270ca419b9ac.html)

#IL13: Gill, Ammons among the challengers to Davis; Manar likely not running.
Kevin McDermott at STLToday.com: (http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/once-again-national-democrats-are-targeting-two-gop-metro-east/article_52f299af-f158-5488-a17f-270ca419b9ac.html)

Brendan Kelly would be a good recruit

McGhee's a good guy but I generally question the ability of non-Hispanic candidates to be competitive in a 70% Hispanic district. Don't know that much about Asencio, who's new to the legislature this year. He'd certainly be competitive, but he only has one race and one session under his belt so far.

Interesting. I still hope it's Kirkpatrick if Sinema doesn't change her mind, though.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides. :P

Morning Consult, conducted June 29-30:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27892

Dems 43%
GOP 39%

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

She has a ton of baggage

Every candidate either has baggage or is an absolute non-entity, that's what I say.

I mean, you can say that, but you're wrong.  Sinema has too much baggage to win statewide.  Stanton is easily our best candidate.

A sad truth is I doubt those voters would be keen on voting for a bisexual atheist, Blue Dog or no. Arizona isn't a firebreathing Bible Belt state, but we still have our share of...shall we say, traditionalists. Neither thing should matter a bit, but I suspect that it would.

There's also some stuff from her days in the Green Party working for the Nader campaign and marketing herself as a liberal firebrand.

Also those things. I mean, of course, her record should speak louder than her past and should matter more than her sexuality or religion, but there are too many ways to put a negative spin on her.

As it stands, she's a safe incumbent in a district that could theoretically be competitive without her. I would prefer to keep her where she is and run Stanton, whose mayoral seat is both inconsequential to the House majority and completely impossible for the Republicans to pick up.

I wasn't really aware of those things other the bisexual thing. Now I'm convinced.

Honestly I like the Nader-voting, "prada socialist" radical queer Sinema over Blue Dog Congresswoman Sinema.

I do wonder will the dems recruiting of verterns help like it did in 2006?

#IL12: It's official: Brendan Kelly (D) will run against Mike Bost (R) in 2018.

Gregg Palermo at Fox2now: (http://fox2now.com/2017/07/05/st-clair-county-states-attorney-brendan-kelly-running-for-rep-mike-bosts-seat-in-congress/)

Yeah

Frankly, so do I. Hopefully her district moves far enough to the left under the Trump clowncar that she can actually start voting like that.

Trump tanked compared to Romney, and McCain did pretty well there in 2008, so all that made its PVI dart from R+1 to D+4.

You - sure. But how about Arizona voters?

Jan McDowell is looking for a rematch against Kenny Marchant in Texas 24th, which is a neighboring district to mine. Filed it on 3/1/2017, and has done such a bad job with publicity since she has like no funding, that I just found out about it today. It's in an R+9 district in suburban DFW, with a popular and well known and entrenched incumbent. Marchant won 56-39 in 2016. And Drumpft won it 51-45.

Nothing to see here folks...

Absolutely. There are better (for Democrats) districts even in Texas. Of course - if they will not run "bold progressives" (aka "left wing tea party") in every possible districts.

Glorious news!

Does he have seriously a chance?

Depends how strong a campaign he runs and how good 2018 is for the Democrats.  He seems like a top-tier recruit though and it is absolutely critical that the Democrats get strong recruits in as many potentially competitive districts as possible.  The only way we'll take the house is if we compete not only in districts that are obviously going to be competitive (ex: VA-10), but also in districts like OH-1, IL-12, CO-3, WV-3, AR-2, OH-16, MI-1, KY-6, VA-2, NJ-11, WI-7, etc that could potentially become highly competitive with the right candidate even if they'll start off as lean Republican.  In other words, put as many seats on the table as possible with A-list wave insurance candidates so that we'll be well-positioned to take full advantage if a large wave hits in late September/early October of 2018 (that's usually when lean/likely seats usually start becoming highly competitive left and right in wave years).  Some won't pan out, but many more will if 2018 truly turns out to be a Democratic wave.

So, Sam Johnson, a 13-term incumbent from TX-03, is retiring.

The Democrats have fielded a candidate with the exact same name.

https://www.votesamjohnson.com

Of course, he has to make it through the primary, but if he does...

I would die if he actually won like that.

TX-31: Dems have recruited (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/07/06/carter-gets-democratic-challenger-military-hero-mj-hegar/) decorated Air Force veteran MJ Hegar for this Safe R seat.

Very good choice. She seems like a very solid candidate, I think there is even a decent chance that she holds the R to single digits.

An honestly that is big like "iron mustache" running aganist Paul it's not about winning but having to sweat in seats like this forces to GOP to move resources from seats that need it more

Also good insurance in case the map gets redrawn and TX-31 ends up as a competitive Austin-based seat.

Hey so funny story but I just found out that the finically director for Chrissy Houlahan who is running in PA-06 aganist Costello is somone I went to college with.

Also story missed from July 3rd Daylin Leach is in for PA-07 https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2017/07/06/daylin-leach-congressman-pat-meehan-election.html

Woohoo! Totally endorsed! I rate this as lean R though, and I think Meehan will win about 55-45.

I disagree I think Meehan is in trouble Trump just looms large over the district and it's possible that his anti-AHCA vote ends up just pissing rep loyalists off over gaining crossover votes like 2010

Definately a possibility, hence I called this lean, not likely like most other pollsters thus far.

CO-05: 2016 Colorado Senate GOP nominee Darryl Glenn is running in the primary against incumbent Doug Lamborn. (http://gazette.com/republican-darryl-glenn-jumping-in-5th-congressional-district-primary-against-lamborn-hill/article/1606660)

The tea party isn't going down without a fight. I wouldn't underestimate Glenn considering he came within six points of defeating Michael Bennett. Glenn also seems like a good fit for this district; Colorado Spring is known for two things: Military Service and Evangelicalism.

I like him, but he probably can't beat Lamborn, right? Owen Hill is also running against him in the primary.

Well, Glenn is a USAF veteran, which helps given that the Air Force Academy is in that district. Lamborn (not a veteran) seems to receive a primary challenger every two years (usually from a veteran), but he's always won. Glenn seems to be far more credible than anyone else, though. Other than the lack of military service, is there anything else in particular that the base doesn't like about Lamborn? I never understood his unpopularity.

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792 (https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792)

I'm not sure this is right thread for this (mods feel free to move it elsewhere), but Cook Political has shifted ratings on 10 House races, all toward the Democrats:

CA-24 Carbajal   Lean D to Likely D
FL-18 Mast   Solid R to Likely R
IL-10 Schneider   Likely D to Solid D
IL-12 Bost   Likely R to Lean R
IL-17 Bustos   Likely D to Solid D
NY-19 Faso   Lean R to Toss Up
NC-09 Pittenger   Solid R to Likely R
NC-13 Budd   Solid R to Likely R
PA-06 Costello   Likely R to Lean R
VA-02 Taylor   Solid R to Likely R

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10412 (http://cookpolitical.com/story/10412)

Glorious news!

Niceeeeeeee

The only way former Navy SEAL Scott Taylor is being defeated is by running a vet against him, there is already a former Air Force and Navy vet running right now. Rigell was a former Marine and Nye the last Dem rep worked overseas in Iraq for the State Dept.

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

From what I'm hearing a couple high profile Texas dems are waiting on the new court ordered redistricting maps before running

The trial to see if the 2013 interim maps need to be redrawn is about to start on Monday (10th), and we should probably find out exactly what is going to happen sometime in the next couple months, or perhaps much sooner. Here is a pretty detailed Q/A about it (article is new):

https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/texas-redistricting-back-court

As I understand it, not only could we see a more Democratic-leaning 23rd district, but they might have to draw upwards of 2 - 3 more Hispanic minority opportunity districts, which could really help Democrats out in 2018.

And as a cherry on top, there is a chance Texas could find itself bailed back into requiring preclearance for district maps and changes to election laws, on account of all their racially discriminatory laws/maps passed over the past 7 years.

Here's a doozy from it:

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

It's rumored one of the biggest losers is going to be Blake Farenthold as he has no money no money in his coffers and Soloman Ortiz jr (who is the son of the man who held this seat for like 30 years before Blake beat him) is likely to run

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

We could do much worse than Gallego tbh.

Agreed.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

I used to consider Carlos Uresti a great pick until he got himself in a crapload of trouble. Then I thought Tomas Uresti, his brother would be a good pick, but then I realized that it cannot be good since they are brothers with the same last name. Then I thought Nevarez could be good, but then he got in trouble with Rinaldi. Now I think the good choices are Tracy King, Rick Galindo, and a few others.

Personally I wouldn't mind Gallego running again if the 23rd gets redrawn before the 2018 elections, which would almost surely make it more Democratic, but if it doesn't, I'd rather they go with someone else. He has already lost twice in a row now (I would note his 2016 percentage was actually a smidge lower than 2014 as well). He came close, but we absolutely need this district, and if there is someone better I'd rather they give it a go.

+1 dem

Poncho Nevarez really screwed up when he confronted Rinaldi. As for Rudy Salas, that's very good news!

Any news on if Adam Gray is considering a run aganist Denham?

Las Vegas councilman Stavros Anthony (R) to challenge D freshman Ruben Kihuen in NV-04: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/las-vegas-councilman-to-file-for-congress (https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/las-vegas-councilman-to-file-for-congress)

SD-AL: Tim Bjorkman (D), retired circuit court judge, will announce a run on Thursday for the open seat.

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/10/former-circuit-court-judge-run-u-s-house/464186001/

Decent choice - as long as his "focus on local issues" campaign can basically seperate itself from the national party.

It'd be fun if there were a member of Congress named Bjorkman.

"Generic [party]" tends to over-perform compared to specific candidates.

Via quinnipiac, Trump's approval in upstate NY has fallen to 38%. Could play a big role on if Michael Hein and/or Svante Myrick join races

In-depth article on GA-7 that discusses some of the candidates running for the D nomination next year: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-take-aim-gwinnett-based-7th-congressional-district/Zbzm9RhE0kpLkFtTE4qTbN/ (http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-take-aim-gwinnett-based-7th-congressional-district/Zbzm9RhE0kpLkFtTE4qTbN/)

Haven't upstate NY and the Upper Midwest tracked eerily close together in the past? If this keeps up that is bad news in MI, MN and WI.

Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

PPP poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_71817.pdf):


Democrat 50%
Republican 40%

()

your reference to Kirk doesn't make sense.

CA-50's one of the toughest R held SoCal districts to crack.

I wasn't being that serious. I just wanted to reference his loss. :P

Either way, I have a hard time seeing how the GOP can flip this seat back atm.

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html)

D 52%
R 38%

That is a particularly rich and diverse poll. Interestingly, these numbers are for preference for party control, rather than voting intention, and I'm curious how much one can stand in for the other.

They probably mirror one another closely, like favorability and job approval.

Looks like the Republican Party's brand is deteriorating rather rapidly. Their RCP average (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html) is already down to -9 points. Even after Bush's reelection, it took Democrats about a year before their generic poll lead reached double digits.

It won't fall unless 2018 proves to be a blue tsunami, and Hunter gets indicted and convicted.

Ann Kirkpatrick has filed with the FEC to run against McSalley in AZ-02

Dems get a good recruit against Collins in Erin Cole. His investment scandals and Trumlcare support probably make him a weak incumbent, though Colemwould be working against the district's Republicsn lean.

http://buffalonews.com/2017/07/19/first-dem-challenge-collins-comes-armed-loaded-resume/

Paging Technocratic Timmy:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/24/1683339/-Morning-Digest-How-California-s-top-two-primary-could-wind-up-saving-a-vulnerable-Republican


I really wish they would just get rid of the top-two stuff already. Maybe even Republicans would be on board with that, given that it looks poised to lock them out of countless races in the future if their state party continues its implosion. Say what you will about whatever benefits top-two brings, but a party should not be locked out of a general election just because swarms of their candidates diluted the vote so much that allowed two opposition members to go forward against each other.

Why not? Idiotism must be punished. And failure to guarantee as much candidates as needed for having best chances to win is an idiotism.

I pretty much stated my main opposition to this already. I'm not a big fan of the way we currently elect politicians, but I want more far-reaching reforms and not things like this. I'm not sure I like the idea of statewide California elections frequently becoming DvD matchups (even if for partisan reasons it is appealing), nor do I like the idea of competitive House races going to Republicans because Democrats couldn't help but pile into the race en masse and split the vote in obscene ways.

Why wet your pants over the possibility of an R vs R runoff in a top two primary a year out from the primary itself? Sounds like they just want to scare people for the sake of scaring them.

Chart from Brookings on the number of House challengers who have raised >$5000 by this point each election cycle:

()

I really would love to see what the correlation between these numbers overall house pickups mean. Just based off of the the graph shown there must be some sort of correlation.

Ask and you shall receive:

()

X-axis is D advantage in recruits and the Y-axis is D gains in the House. 0.9055 is a pretty strong correlation, but if the formula is to be believed, Democrats are set to gain 260 seats next year, which is 19 seats more than Congress has. You heard it here first, folks.

EMILY's List might be recruiting outgoing State Rep. Alicia Reece to run against Steve Chabot in OH-01 (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2017/03/31/whats-next-step-veteran-cincinnati-politician-alicia-reece/99783908/).

Portune who be the better recruit

Yeah, probably. More crossover appeal and represents more of the district already.

Reece would be a weak candidate.  Portune or even Sittenfield would be far better!

EMILY's List doesn't endorse or back dudes.

State Rep. Tom Patton (R) has announced for OH-16 which is being vacated by Jim Renacci in hopes of running for Governor (http://ow.ly/Z2Cn30e2UZT).

Active unionist and active pro-lifer..... Interesting combination, and not so rare in Midwest...

Less rare in Ohio than in other parts of the midwest.

Forgot that Patton running actually means there's going to be a decently serious Republican primary for the 16th, since state Rep. Christina Hagan announced months ago (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/christina-hagan-republican-congress).

Interesting profile.

I recall back in May that Michael Hein said he would announce by the end of July if he runs aganist Faso. Anyone got updates on that?

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will announce a challenge to Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/curbelo-draws-democratic-challenger-in-swing-florida-district/2332195

Impressive intro for Dem challenger to Andy Barr in KY-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

Jim Gray should still run. He won KY-06 by six last year. KY was a blowout for the GOP, and it's doubly impressive because Gray's gay.

Solid candidate!!!

Yeah I liked Gray. Still, impressive video intro

Darn! At the time of this post, the video was #2 trending in the entire world! Totally endorsed!

Morning Consult/Politico, July 27-29, 1972 RV (MOE 2%) (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/02/democrats-ballot-2018-election-241228)

D 44
R 37
Undecided 19

*whistles*

Jim Gray was from Lexington though, but yeah, I don't think that's insignificant. McGrath seems like a good candidate on paper.

Michael Grimm is thinking about primarying Donovan http://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2017/08/2/michael-grimm-eyeing-run-for-congress-sources-say-staten-island-dan-donovan.html

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/02/hurd-gets-first-democratic-challenger-2018/

Seems like an excellent recruit, a lot better than running Gallego again.

Shades of a female Kander. I hope she does well!

+14 for both. (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2477)

Democratic Party net favorability -12
Republican Party net favorability -42

By the end of this cycle I'm going to be confused as hell as to which female Democrat military veteran is running in which district.

Well, we were warned in April: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/veterans-house-democrats-recruiting-236845

1,000,000 views in 2 days is pretty good, and even now it's still trending at #18. I'm exciting to see how her and Ojeda fair in their respective districts next year.

She's got my endorsement.

Yep, I was about to mention just that. I saw a former Trump supporter protesting down Washington street a week ago when Trump made the announcement about trans troops. His flag-decored signs read "Trump is a traitor."

Their polls do seem overly friendly to Democrats, but I personally wouldn't call them junk. Not at all. Their large leads for Democrats in the generic poll are not that far off from select other polls according to 538 (link (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo))

Well they are either to democrat friendly or too republican friendly lol

The Democrats being ahead by 15 is a little too friendly but I can believe a Democratic spread of 8-12 points, which (at this point) is enough to flip the House. It would take considerable work by the GOP to get themselves back to a point where they win the House popular vote.

Quinnipiac asks a slightly different generic ballot question than most other pollsters.  Q asks which party the respondent would like to see in control of Congress; the others ask which party the respondent would vote for.  A voter might intend to vote for their incumbent because they like him/her but prefer to see the other party win overall control for various reasons, such as a check on the President.  IMO the Q version is less useful as a predictor than the standard generic ballot question.

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.

rip NV Dems

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

. Based on trump approval ratings in NY, Teachout could kill him in a rematch

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.

She literally got shot in the brain and has difficulty stringing together thoughts and speaking. In another world where she was never shot or survived the shooting unscathed, maybe. But we don't live in that world.

She's made MASSIVE progress since the shooting. She learned how to talk in a couple of years, I'm not saying she WILL be up for it, I'm saying let's see where she's at decision time.

Bruh the woman got shot in the head. I'm happy she's made the progress she has but there are better options for Dems than her given the realities.

Give it a break already people.

In what is quickly becoming a crowded primary, former OSU football star Anthony Gonzalez is looking to run as a Republican in OH-16 (http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/anthony_gonzalez_former_ohio_s.html).

The seat will be open next year, but he isn't resigning.

Billings attorney John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte (http://helenair.com/news/politics/democratic-billings-lawyer-business-owner-says-he-s-running-for/article_d2293a93-1f39-586d-9d31-23bd244d75f9.html)

Good recruit or?

I doubt dems can beat him now, but I pray to God that someone primaries this illegitimate jerk out.

He's not a politician and has never been a candidate, so tbd. But his top issue will be health care, followed by campaign finance reform, which is much better than Quist's public lands obsession. Still, who knows how well he'll fundraise and campaign.

Definition of a "Some guy"

I have heard whispers about Sinema announcing a run vs Flake within the next few weeks, and Greg Stanton then announcing a bid for Kyrsten Sinema's current seat.

Not in Montana, it isn't. And Quist was very adamant about health care.

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Yes!

Boyda won this seat in 2006 and I think Davis is a much stronger candidate. Plus it's an open seat, which bodes well.

Also I think Davis won this district in 2014 gubernatorial, or at least was very close. Especially considering that it's Brownback's home district.

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

If there's that many votes to threaten Paul Ryan being speaker then former Pelosi voters should just jump ship. This is where having a good whip count would help a lot.

Its a good way to win grassroots, but I don't see it as a good way to get $$$$$

At a certain point just who gives a f*** about money if we can't win seats.

I meant it in the sense that big donors and the DCCC won't dump money into this race if Davis is against the leadership,which will make his victory harder.

I think it's official: Bryce, McGrath, and Ortiz-Jones are my favorite candidates this cycle.

More likely if enough Democrats get elected running on the promise to not vote for Pelosi, the pressure for her to step down will be to much for even her to bear.

Stivers to be challenged by a former international aid worker (http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170815/steve-stivers-has-new-opponent-for-15th-congressional-district-election?start=2). Unfortunately, I think Stivers is safe outside of a truly massive wave, but glad to see someone new challenging him. I was worried OH-15 was going down the route of OH-04.

Quinnipiac (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2481)

House: 50 D, 40 R (was 52/4838 on Aug 3)

Senate: 51 D, 41 R (was 53/39)

ID-01: Malek in. (http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/election/article167508587.html)