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Title: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED) Post by: Adam Griffin on May 12, 2017, 03:02:03 AM 2017 SPECIAL ELECTIONS: (see next post for 2018 specials) Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9 Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1 Congressional:
State Legislative
1 Jungle primary margin between all combined Dem and all combined GOP candidates; runoff is Dem vs. Dem 2 Indicates runoff has not yet occurred; final result undetermined 3 Special was called because 2016 GOP candidate was ruled at the last-minute to be ineligible; using 2014 results for comparison 4 No regular election in 2016; using 2014 results for comparison 5 Democratic candidate on ballot but dropped out of race 6 Election was Dem versus independent 7 ED vote only; state does not record EV by precinct 8 Election was Dem versus Green 9 Election was GOP versus independent CONTINUED BELOW Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: Adam Griffin on May 12, 2017, 11:36:18 AM 2018 SPECIAL ELECTIONS: Average congressional swing, 2018: D+17.5 Average state legislative swing, 2018: D+11.0 Congressional:
State Legislative
1 Jungle primary margin between all combined Dem and all combined GOP candidates; runoff is Dem vs. Dem 2 Indicates runoff has not yet occurred; final result undetermined 3 Special was called because 2016 GOP candidate was ruled at the last-minute to be ineligible; using 2014 results for comparison 4 No regular election in 2016; using 2014 results for comparison 5 Democratic candidate on ballot but dropped out of race 6 Election was Dem versus independent 7 ED vote only; state does not record EV by precinct 8 Election was Dem versus Green 9 Election with Rep versus independent Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 12, 2017, 12:11:04 PM why is everybody in Oklahoma resigning?
Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: Adam Griffin on May 12, 2017, 12:54:23 PM why is everybody in Oklahoma resigning? From Maxwell: Quote This is three Oklahoma officials since the beginning of the 2017 session - Dan Kirby for sexual harassment, Ralph Shortey for molesting kids, and Kyle Loveless for embezzlement. Who is next? I'm honestly more intrigued by why these all have such varying dates for their respective special elections. Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: The Other Castro on May 12, 2017, 04:37:11 PM State Legislative Special Elections:
November 29, 2016: Alabama House of Representatives District 79 -Republican Joe Lovvorn won unopposed. January 10, 2017: Virginia State Senate Districts 9 and 22, House of Delegates District 85 -Senate 9: Democrat Jennifer McClellan - 91.3% Libertarian Corey Maurice Fauconier - 8.1% -Senate 22: Republican Mark Peake - 53.1% Democrat Ryant Washington - 39.6% Independent Joe Hines - 7.3% -House 85: Republican Rocky Holcomb - 52.8% Democrat Cheryl Turpin - 47% January 31, 2017: Iowa House of Representatives District 89 Democrat Monica Hosch Kurth - 72% Republican Mike Gonzales - 27% February 7, 2017: Virginia House of Delegates District 71 Democrat Jeff Bourne - 89.91% Libertarian John Barclay - 6.62% Independent Regie Ford - 3.27% February 14, 2017: Minnesota House of Representatives District 32B Republican Anne Neu - 53.2% Democrat Laurie Warner - 46.7% February 25, 2017: Delaware State Senate District 10 Democrat Stephanie Hansen - 58.1% Republican John Marino - 40.8% Libertarian Joseph Lanzendorfer - 1.1% February 28, 2017: Connecticut State Senate Districts 2 and 32, State House District 115 -Senate 2: Democrat Douglas McCrory - 74.1% Republican Michael McDonald - 25.3% -Senate 32: Republican Eric C. Berthel - 53.9% Democrat Greg Cava - 44.2% Unaffiliated Dan Lynch - 1.9% -House 115: Democrat Dorinda Keenan Borer - 61% Republican Edward Granfield - 39% March 21, 2017: Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 197 Democrat Emilio Vazquez (Write-in) - 80.4% Green Cheri Honkala (Write-in) - 11.5% Republican Lucinda Little - 8.1% March 25/April 29, 2017: Louisiana House of Representatives District 8, 42, 92 -House 8: Republican Raymond Crews defeated another Republican Robbie Gatti Jr. -House 42: Republican John Stefanski defeated another Republican Jay Suire -House 92: Republican Joe Stagni - 73.7% Republican Gisela Chevalier - 13.3% Democrat Chuck Toney - 13% https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017 Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: Virginiá on May 12, 2017, 06:58:46 PM Griff, if you want to keep that fancy table updated, I'll sticky this for awhile.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: The Other Castro on May 12, 2017, 09:29:40 PM The rest of the legislative special elections:
April 18, 2017: Alabama House District 67 Democrat Prince Chestnut - 94.9% Independent Toby Gorden - 5.1% April 25, 2017: Connecticut House of Representatives Districts 7 and 68 -House 7: Working Families Joshua Malik Hall - 41.1% (Caucuses as a Democrat) Democrat Rickey Pinckney Sr. - 33.7% Independent Kenneth P. Green - 24.1% -House 68: Republican Joe Polletta - 78.1% Democrat Louis Esposito - 21.9% April 29/May 27, 2017: Louisiana State Senate District 2 (Runoff yet to occur) Democrat Warren Harang III (advanced to runoff) - 26.5% Democrat Edward "Ed" Price (advanced to runoff) - 22.1% Other Democrats Combined - 38.5% Republican Wayne Brigalia - 7% May 23, 2017: -Alabama House of Representatives District 58 -New Hampshire House of Representatives Districts Carroll 6 and Hillsborough 44 -New York State Senate District 30 and State Assembly District 9 May 30, 2017: South Carolina State Senate District 3 and House District 84 June 15, 2017: Tennessee House of Representatives District 95 June 20, 2017: South Carolina House of Representatives Districts 48 and 70 July 18, 2017: New Hampshire House of Representatives District Merrimack 18 July 25, 2017: -New Hampshire State Senate District 16 -Massachusetts State Senate Fourth Middlesex District August 8, 2017: Missouri State Senate District 28 and House District 50 August 22, 2017: Rhode Island State Senate District 13 September 12, 2017: Oklahoma State Senate District 44 September 26, 2017: Florida State Senate District 40 November 7, 2017: -Michigan House of Representatives District 1 -Washington State Senate Districts 31, 37, 45, 48 and House Districts 7, 31, 48 Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: Adam Griffin on May 13, 2017, 04:25:05 AM Wow, thanks! That certainly makes the process easier, though I imagine I'll be working for awhile on some of these. Looks like a lot of these special elections are non-events, though. Griff, if you want to keep that fancy table updated, I'll sticky this for awhile. OK, great! Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections/results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 13, 2017, 09:38:59 AM With the exception of a few outstanding races, I've managed to get all of the data added for all specials that have occurred so far. I do still need to add many of the upcoming state legislative specials to the list when I get time. I'm worried that I'm going to hit the 11000-character limit pretty soon with all of this coding, though.
I'll also need to go back and correct a discrepancy between D vs D/R vs R races in CA/LA where there are runoffs; I opted to use the jungle primary in the case of CA but forgot to do so this morning when looking through Castro's info provided for LA. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 13, 2017, 12:54:25 PM OK, I've got all of those announced elections added finally...and I've already had to trim my code once to be under the character limit.
*sigh* I may have to convert this to an image before long, especially as I add more 2016 results/color-code them. I wish I had thought to make an extra reply at the beginning. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Virginiá on May 13, 2017, 01:32:07 PM OK, I've got all of those announced elections added finally...and I've already had to trim my code once to be under the character limit. *sigh* I may have to convert this to an image before long, especially as I add more 2016 results/color-code them. I wish I had thought to make an extra reply at the beginning. If McGovernForPrez and MT Treasurer are ok with it, I (or they) could delete their 2 posts following your main post, and you could convert your 2nd post in this thread into a "2nd page" for your table? Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 13, 2017, 01:48:46 PM OK, I've got all of those announced elections added finally...and I've already had to trim my code once to be under the character limit. *sigh* I may have to convert this to an image before long, especially as I add more 2016 results/color-code them. I wish I had thought to make an extra reply at the beginning. If McGovernForPrez and MT Treasurer are ok with it, I (or they) could delete their 2 posts following your main post, and you could convert your 2nd post in this thread into a "2nd page" for your table? That may be needed soon - I'm at 10700 characters right now so once I add colors for a few more results it'll be over the limit once again. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Brittain33 on May 13, 2017, 02:00:21 PM Aaugh, I know I've seen someone—possibly a Daily Kos affiliate—who is keeping a public spreadsheet of all special election results and the swing from Trump/Clinton. I have not been able to find it.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: The_Doctor on May 14, 2017, 08:34:29 PM Griffin - could we do a running average of the swing for both congressional / federal elections and the state elections? Enten has called them a good predictor of the possible swing in 2018.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 16, 2017, 10:02:14 AM Griffin - could we do a running average of the swing for both congressional / federal elections and the state elections? Enten has called them a good predictor of the possible swing in 2018. Which elections specifically did you have in mind? I've been lucky thus far to find presidential margins for most of these districts already compiled, but it's a lot of work to crunch precinct-by-precinct for each district across multiple districts. I had seen somewhere on 538 where they mentioned that an average of the past two presidential elections was the best determination of how a district would vote in a special. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: danny on May 16, 2017, 01:27:20 PM Aaugh, I know I've seen someone—possibly a Daily Kos affiliate—who is keeping a public spreadsheet of all special election results and the swing from Trump/Clinton. I have not been able to find it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0) Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 16, 2017, 09:13:02 PM GA SD32 final results added.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Holmes on May 16, 2017, 09:18:50 PM Democrats keeping their margins in suburban Sun Belt is good. Now they need to expand them.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Sorenroy on May 16, 2017, 10:16:30 PM Awesome job Griffin! By the way, it looks like "Congressional:" and "State Legislative" are making the "Type" column much bigger than it needs to be while forcing other columns into spaces that are clearly too small ("Runoff" for the state legislative races, for example). If you removed them from the charts themselves it might ease up on the space.
Alternatively, I have seen several threads that were much wider than most. Even though I'm pretty sure it's an error, it could be helpful for making a better chart. (Also, the first two comments are both yours. You don't have to worry about the character limit for a while.) Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 16, 2017, 10:21:22 PM Awesome job Griffin! By the way, it looks like "Congressional:" and "State Legislative" are making the "Type" column much bigger than it needs to be while forcing other columns into spaces that are clearly too small ("Runoff" for the state legislative races, for example). If you removed them from the charts themselves it might ease up on the space. Alternatively, I have seen several threads that were much wider than most. Even though I'm pretty sure it's an error, it could be helpful for making a better chart. (Also, the first two comments are both yours. You don't have to worry about the character limit for a while.) Thanks for the tip on that! Fixed. As far as maximum width, the only way (to my knowledge) to stretch it beyond the normal parameters is to either a) use a large image (which squeezes a bit more room out of it) or b) pasting a very long link, which will stretch the page as long as the link is on one line. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 23, 2017, 11:00:49 PM Can't wait to update the thread with tonight's results! I'll have it sorted through in just a couple of hours when I'm done with my RL work.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Sorenroy on May 23, 2017, 11:05:13 PM I red on Reddit that Dems were able to win one of the ones in NH for the first time in a long time. Also, one of the NY ones.
Also, just noticing now, why did the Democrat drop out of the race in LA-92? Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: ○∙◄☻Ątπ[╪AV┼cVę└ on May 23, 2017, 11:07:07 PM I red on Reddit that Dems were able to win one of the ones in NH for the first time in a long time. Also, one of the NY ones. Also, just noticing now, why did the Democrat drop out of the race in LA-92? It sounds like at least part of that NY district might never had had a Democrat before. I know that Long Island was pretty Republican from about 1917-2001. The reason why it swung Republican in 1917 was Irish mad at Wilson for entering WW1 on the side of the UK. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Sorenroy on May 23, 2017, 11:34:42 PM State Legislative
NY: http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/home.aspx https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_State_Senate_District_30 https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_State_Assembly_District_9 By the way, I used the combined numbers for each candidate. Apparently Christine Pellegrino appeared as a "DEM" and "WOR", while Thomas A. Gargiulo appeared as a "REP", "CON", and "IND". I don't know enough about NY voting to know how that worked out on the ballots. AL: https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_House_of_Representatives_District_58 Apparently, because no other candidates ran, the winner of the Democratic primary, Rolanda Hollis, has already won the seat. NH: https://ballotpedia.org/New_Hampshire_House_of_Representatives_District_Carroll_6 https://ballotpedia.org/New_Hampshire_House_of_Representatives_District_Hillsborough_44 http://sos.nh.gov/201718SpecElect.aspx It does not look like the NH SOS has their results up yet. http://www.wmur.com/article/in-nh-house-special-elections-democrat-pulls-off-upset-in-wolfeboro-republican-wins-hillsborough-county-seat/9918480 Couldn't wait, hope this helps! I'll do more if I can. Not sure how you are doing swings. When I went up to see, I noticed that your swing for DE-11 is off. Also, I'm working off the assumption that "'16 P Mar" means 2016 Presidential Margin. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on May 24, 2017, 04:45:10 AM ^^^ Thanks for the help! I went ahead and filled in the rest save for AL-58's presidential margin; I also fixed the DE Senate average.
BTW, what I do is simply round up for the average and then count the swing from there. So R+2 & D+13 = D+11; divided by 2 D+5.5 -> D+6. Title: Re: List of post-2016 special elections? Post by: Sorenroy on May 30, 2017, 08:57:28 PM State Legislative
Senate 03 https://www.scvotes.org/state-senate-district-3-special-election *Write-In, the "opponent", won 18.3% of the vote against the Republican candidate. https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_State_Senate_District_3 House 84 https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-84-special-election https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_House_of_Representatives_District_84 Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Brittain33 on June 16, 2017, 12:39:20 PM State Legislative
No D has contested this legislative seat near Memphis for 20 years. Turnout was an abysmal 9%. http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/06/16/kevin-vaughan-wins-tennessee-house-district-95-race/390263001/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0 Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on June 21, 2017, 02:06:53 AM Updated congressionals. I'll get around to doing the 2 state legislative races tomorrow (unless somebody beats me to it).
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on July 15, 2017, 05:47:13 PM Oklahoma races added.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on July 18, 2017, 05:06:39 PM NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on July 18, 2017, 09:14:55 PM NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight. Schultz wins 78-22 (284-82). Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Gustaf on July 20, 2017, 06:22:51 AM Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed?
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: windjammer on July 20, 2017, 06:29:19 AM Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed? Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on July 20, 2017, 05:39:53 PM NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight. Schultz wins 78-22 (284-82). 44 point swing that is insane. Liberals are willing to walk through shards of glass to slap Trump in the face. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on July 21, 2017, 09:11:37 AM Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed? Excluding a few situations where something went off-track (one candidate dropping out after winning the primary, etc): State legislative: 11.7-point swing Congressional: 15.4-point swing Total: 12.3-point swing Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on July 25, 2017, 11:06:28 PM Elections tonight in New Hampshire's State Senate District 10 and in Massachusetts' Senate Middlesex District 4.
In New Hampshire, the Democrat won by 10 points (the Dem won this district by 2 in 2016; Clinton won by less than 1 point). In Massachusetts, the election came down to a Democrat versus a Green; the Democrat won with 88% of the vote; no Republican qualified. In 2016, Clinton won this district by 29 points. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2017, 03:15:18 PM WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). More was spent during this jungle primary than in all other races in the district going back to 2000 - combined.
Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)? Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Tintrlvr on August 03, 2017, 03:20:09 PM WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)? I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2017, 03:31:18 PM WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)? I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections. It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here. In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate. Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date). However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle. In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: windjammer on August 03, 2017, 03:32:21 PM WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)? I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections. It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here. In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate. Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date). However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle. In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2017, 03:37:51 PM WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)? I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections. It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here. In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate. Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date). However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle. In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money. It was a "jungle primary", which I do not consider to be a real primary; essentially, what they call a "general election" in this situation is a run-off, as it presumably will be for all elections held in November 2017 (I don't believe there are any regularly-scheduled state elections in WA in the odd years). If all parties/candidates are running on the same ballot and a candidate can win a majority, that should be that. Otherwise, let each party hold its own primary and nominate accordingly; literally no point to the jungle primary if you can't get a win on the first-round. I think this is one situation where my state actually got run-offs right. Georgia actually does utilize jungle primaries in one specific instance: state legislative elections. Candidates can declare and run as Republican, Democratic or "Non-Partisan" (the only instance in which a candidate can run under such a label) and all are on the same ballot. If one person gets 50%+1, then there is no runoff. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: windjammer on August 03, 2017, 03:39:35 PM WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)? I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections. It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here. In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate. Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date). However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle. In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money. It was a "jungle primary", which I do not consider to be a real primary; essentially, what they call a "general election" in this situation is a run-off, as it presumably will be for all elections held in November 2017 (I don't believe there are any regularly-scheduled state elections in WA in the odd years). If all parties/candidates are running on the same ballot and a candidate can win a majority, that should be that. I think this is one situation where my state actually got run-offs right. Georgia actually does utilize jungle primaries in one specific instance: state legislative elections. Candidates can declare and run as Republican, Democratic or "Non-Partisan" (the only instance in which a candidate can run under such a label). If one person gets 50%+1, then there is no runoff. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on August 03, 2017, 03:41:06 PM Adam, I"m 90% sure if someone gets 50%+1 there is still a run off, this is the CA system Yes, that's what I'm saying is ridiculous: the Democratic candidate in WA-45 won approximately 51% of the vote and will still have to run for election in November. If you're going to make all parties/candidates run on the same ballot, then you might as well eliminate any need for a run-off (you can call it a "general" if you want, but that is what it is in actuality) if one candidate actually gets a majority in a crowded field consisting of all possible contenders. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on August 08, 2017, 10:33:31 PM Here are tonight's results from IA & MO:
Quote
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 12, 2017, 05:09:51 PM You have OK SD 44 listed as being today in the OP, but that election happened months ago (Democrats won).
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on September 13, 2017, 04:44:27 AM You have OK SD 44 listed as being today in the OP, but that election happened months ago (Democrats won). Fixed. Looks like Oklahoma Democrats pick up yet another seat in the State House tonight - the third one this year.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on September 13, 2017, 04:49:08 AM As a sidenote, if I have missed any elections that have occurred this year that aren't on the sheet above, please let me know. Castro was kind enough to give me a comprehensive list of upcoming specials back in May - and I have updated these figures as the elections roll around - but I'll admit that I haven't actually kept tabs on any special elections scheduled since then unless they somehow inadvertently crossed my radar.
P.S.: I finally had to convert the results post to an image format because I ran out of characters. The pastebin link above that has the original forum code in it, however. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on September 21, 2017, 10:36:11 PM Home state update: three special elections will occur in the next couple of months in GA, all created by vacancies: HDs 004, 026 & another one (Dem-held, I forget which one).
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 28, 2017, 07:30:36 PM Ballotpedia lists seven Georgia HD and two SD special elections this November: https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017 (https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017)
P.S.: You need to add the Florida SD-40 and HD-116 results from this week. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Tintrlvr on October 03, 2017, 09:27:49 PM Ballotpedia lists seven Georgia HD and two SD special elections this November: https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017 (https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017) P.S.: You need to add the Florida SD-40 and HD-116 results from this week. Most will not be competitive. SD-6, HD-117 and maybe HD-119 could be interesting. HD-4 is a very safe Republican seat covering Dalton. Safe R, may be an RvR runoff, although there is a Democrat in the race. HD-26 is a very safe Republican seat in Forsyth County. Safe R, may be an RvR runoff, although there is a Democrat in the race. HD-42, covering parts of Smyrna and Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Cobb County, seems on its face like a relatively marginal Democratic seat (though don't have voting figures), but no Republican filed. Teri Anulewicz (D) is the only candidate, so she will be acclaimed. HD-60 is a very safe Democratic seat in south Fulton and north Clayton Counties, and in any case no Republican filed. Three Democrats will compete for the seat. Safe D. HD-89 is a very safe Democratic seat in southwest Dekalb County, and in any case no Republican filed. Four Democrats will compete for the seat. Safe D. HD-117 is a lean Republican seat covering what might be called exurbs of Athens in Barrow and Jackson Counties, suburbs of Athens in Oconee County and part of Athens proper (which is cracked across three districts). Moved hard towards the Democrats in 2016. Will be decided in the jungle as there are only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican). Lean R. HD-119 is a likely Republican seat that takes some of the more marginal parts of Athens and attaches them to rural Oconee County (the most suburban parts of Oconee, which are also moving sharply towards the Democrats, are in HD-117). Plausibly could be competitive in this environment but probably will not be. Likely R, Democrat should make it to the runoff as there are three Republicans and only one Democrat. SD-6 is a marginal Republican-held seat that includes the territory of HD-42 above (perhaps explaining why only one candidate filed there) plus the rest of Smyrna, bits of Cobb County connecting it to Fulton County, north Atlanta and Sandy Springs. It could very plausibly vote for a Democrat and is easily the most competitive seat, although it is unclear to me how serious any of the Democratic candidates are. I would call it a Toss-up. SD-39 is a safe Democratic seat covering much of Atlanta. A Republican did manage to file, but the runoff, if there is one, will very likely be DvD. Safe D. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: kph14 on October 03, 2017, 10:08:30 PM SD-6 is a marginal Republican-held seat that includes the territory of HD-42 above (perhaps explaining why only one candidate filed there) plus the rest of Smyrna, bits of Cobb County connecting it to Fulton County, north Atlanta and Sandy Springs. It could very plausibly vote for a Democrat and is easily the most competitive seat, although it is unclear to me how serious any of the Democratic candidates are. I would call it a Toss-up. I'd rate GA-SD6 Lean D. The district went 55-40 Clinton and the incumbent State Senator barely eked out a 52-48 victory in 2016. The Democratic nominee is running again, as well as a second serious Democratic candidate. With five Republican candidates running even a D v. D - runoff is possible Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: kph14 on October 03, 2017, 10:13:55 PM HD-117 is a very safe Republican seat covering what might be called exurbs of Athens in Barrow and Jackson Counties and suburbs of Athens in Oconee County. All Democratic attention nearby will be elsewhere. Safe R and will be decided in the jungle as there are only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican). HD-119 is a likely Republican seat that takes some of the more marginal parts of Athens and attaches them to rural Oconee County (the most suburban parts of Oconee, which are also moving sharply towards the Democrats, are gerrymandered into HD-117). Plausibly could be competitive in this environment but probably will not be. Likely R, Democrat should make it to the runoff as there are three Republicans and only one Democrat. Interestingly, the last presidential election would imply the opposite scenario. HD-117 was 49-46 Trump and HD-119 was 51-44 Trump. Can you explain the discrepancy between those up-ballot results and your ratings? Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Tintrlvr on October 04, 2017, 07:48:17 AM HD-117 is a very safe Republican seat covering what might be called exurbs of Athens in Barrow and Jackson Counties and suburbs of Athens in Oconee County. All Democratic attention nearby will be elsewhere. Safe R and will be decided in the jungle as there are only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican). HD-119 is a likely Republican seat that takes some of the more marginal parts of Athens and attaches them to rural Oconee County (the most suburban parts of Oconee, which are also moving sharply towards the Democrats, are gerrymandered into HD-117). Plausibly could be competitive in this environment but probably will not be. Likely R, Democrat should make it to the runoff as there are three Republicans and only one Democrat. Interestingly, the last presidential election would imply the opposite scenario. HD-117 was 49-46 Trump and HD-119 was 51-44 Trump. Can you explain the discrepancy between those up-ballot results and your ratings? Just my confusion. For some reason I did not realize it also contains part of Athens proper. Definitely competitive. Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 26, 2017, 04:04:07 PM When is the OH-12 election happening?
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 26, 2017, 04:07:34 PM When is the OH-12 election happening? The Ohio SoS says that the special election can't be scheduled until Tiberi actually resigns. Source (http://nbc4i.com/2017/12/17/candidates-lining-up-to-run-for-tiberis-seat-in-congress-special-election-yet-to-be-scheduled/) Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Young Conservative on January 10, 2018, 06:22:44 PM How can I make a precinct level map? Private message me how if you can. I want to focus on a few counties
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 16, 2018, 11:00:44 PM Democrat, Patty Schachtner, pulls off a massive upset by flipping the 10th Senate district in Wisconsin (55%-38%). Trump won the seat by 17 points in 2016.
Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: icemanj on February 20, 2018, 08:00:20 PM Democrat Linda Belcher has defeated Rebecca Johnson in the KY 49th House District Special Election by more than a 2:1 margin (Dem Gain)
twitter.com/KySecofState/status/966110438973956096 Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 20, 2018, 08:03:21 PM Limo will be happy!
() Title: Re: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results Post by: Adam Griffin on February 27, 2018, 03:38:05 PM Just a heads-up: I'm going to start adding all elections since 9/12/17 to the OP tonight and get this thread caught up.
Also, I'm very grateful that the character limit has been doubled: I'll be able to restore the original text-based format to the post instead of screencapping a preview! Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings Post by: Adam Griffin on March 01, 2018, 08:34:29 AM All 2017 specials have been added to the OP, along with their 2016 presidential margins; I still need to add their 2016 legislative margins, 2017 special margins and swings, which I'll be wrapping up over the next couple of days.
After that, there's only about 25 from 2018 to complete and this tracker will be 100% back on track! Fun fact: not sure anybody noticed, but Democrats have flipped 6 legislative seats in 2018, which was enough to finally bring the Democrats' state legislative deficit below 1000 seats for the first time in several years. () Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on March 03, 2018, 06:13:38 PM All 2017 specials have been added to the OP, along with their 2016 presidential margins; I still need to add their 2016 legislative margins, 2017 special margins and swings, which I'll be wrapping up over the next couple of days. After that, there's only about 25 from 2018 to complete and this tracker will be 100% back on track! Fun fact: not sure anybody noticed, but Democrats have flipped 6 legislative seats in 2018, which was enough to finally bring the Democrats' state legislative deficit below 1000 seats for the first time in several years. () Question: who here believes that Democrats will have a quadruple digit state legislature pickup sum in 2018? Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (Update in Progress) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 08, 2018, 06:38:52 AM All 2017 state legislative races have been added.
Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9 Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1 Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (Update in Progress) Post by: Gustaf on March 08, 2018, 08:10:24 AM All 2017 state legislative races have been added. Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9 Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1 This is relative to 2016 presidential right? Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (2018 in Progress) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 08, 2018, 08:24:46 AM All 2017 state legislative races have been added. Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9 Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1 This is relative to 2016 presidential right? Relative to an average of 1) the 2016 presidential results in those districts and 2) the results of the last legislative election for those districts (most of those were held in 2016, but some were in 2014 or 2015). Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (2018 in Progress) Post by: jamestroll on March 09, 2018, 05:52:15 AM Could you show the average by region in the United States? I do believe it is accurate as of now that the Midwest had the largest swing thus far.
But I bet a lot of that swing is just a correction because Trump may have over performed in the Midwest. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (2018 in Progress) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 09, 2018, 09:20:44 AM Could you show the average by region in the United States? I do believe it is accurate as of now that the Midwest had the largest swing thus far. But I bet a lot of that swing is just a correction because Trump may have over performed in the Midwest. Keep in mind that Trump's margin is only half the average used to calculate swing in most special elections listed; the other half is the margin in the legislative race itself in 2016 (or in some cases, 2014/2015). 2017 state legislative (special election) swing by region: Midwest: D+16.0 South: D+9.1 Northeast: D+7.7 West: D+1.5 National: D+9.1 () Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (2018 in Progress) Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2018, 10:51:18 AM Could you show the average by region in the United States? I do believe it is accurate as of now that the Midwest had the largest swing thus far. But I bet a lot of that swing is just a correction because Trump may have over performed in the Midwest. Keep in mind that Trump's margin is only half the average used to calculate swing in most special elections listed; the other half is the margin in the legislative race itself in 2016 (or in some cases, 2014/2015). 2017 state legislative (special election) swing by region: Midwest: D+16.0 South: D+9.1 Northeast: D+7.7 West: D+1.5 National: D+9.1 () How many races were there per region? I can't remember there being that many out west. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (2018 in Progress) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 09, 2018, 10:55:27 AM How many races were there per region? I can't remember there being that many out west. 8 in the West. I can't remember exact figures for all (I counted earlier and then discarded), but (I believe) there were 34 in the South, 24 in the Northeast and 12 in the Midwest, for a total of 78 state legislative races in 2017 with opposition. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (2018 in Progress) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 09, 2018, 10:24:17 PM Alrighty, we're entirely up-to-date! For those who were wondering:
Average state legislative swing, 2017 (78 measurable elections): D+9.1 Average state legislative swing, 2018 (21 measurable elections): D+17.6 Average state legislative swing, cycle-to-date (99 measurable elections): D+10.9 Average state legislative swing, 2018 (by region): Midwest: D+25.1 South: D+12.7 Northeast: D+10.0 West: N/A () Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 10, 2018, 02:17:24 AM Here's a chart showing the cycle's average swing at the end of each month from January 2017 through the end of February:
() Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2018, 03:29:05 PM Note that 2012 presidential election margins so far have been more predictive of special election results than 2016 ones.
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11) Post by: Nyvin on March 30, 2018, 03:26:24 PM Here's a chart showing the cycle's average swing at the end of each month from January 2017 through the end of February: () You should imprint Trump's approval rating over the same timeframe on top of this. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: The Other Castro on March 30, 2018, 04:02:55 PM ()
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: Holmes on March 30, 2018, 04:48:06 PM Not much of a correlation.
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: Adam Griffin on March 30, 2018, 09:51:17 PM I wouldn't imagine there would be, seeing as how each month's total on my chart is the cycle-to-date average. For it to be apples-to-apples, you'd need to apply the same methodology to Trump's approval/disapproval ratings. However, I doubt even then that there'd be much of a correlation, as it would just smooth out the trend-lines.
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: UncleSam on April 11, 2018, 12:02:18 AM Annette Sweeney (R) won IA-SD-25 by 12 tonight (R+14 district). Does anyone have the presidential result to compare against?
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: smoltchanov on April 11, 2018, 12:15:09 AM Annette Sweeney (R) won IA-SD-25 by 12 tonight (R+14 district). Does anyone have the presidential result to compare against? 64% Trump in 2016 Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+11/D+16) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 11, 2018, 05:59:22 AM Annette Sweeney (R) won IA-SD-25 by 12 tonight (R+14 district). Does anyone have the presidential result to compare against? Trump won by 26. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+16/D+11) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 14, 2018, 11:27:40 PM Cycle-to-date state legislative swing has crossed the 11-point mark with the results of the April 10 special elections.
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+16/D+11) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 19, 2018, 09:03:18 AM I've added all upcoming special elections (with their relevant past data) for the next 30 days: there are 21 in total, with at least 7 of them appearing to be substantially competitive!
Competitive Specials in the Next 30 Days: Congr AZ 8 - 4/24/18 House NY 10 - 4/24/18 House NY 107 - 4/24/18 House NY 142 - 4/24/18 House FL 114 - 5/1/18 House PA 48 - 5/15/18 House PA 178 - 5/15/18 Color denotes which party held seat prior to vacancy Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+16/D+11) Post by: Blackacre on April 23, 2018, 03:25:50 PM Unsure if this goes here, but there's a special election for NY State Senate that could determine the control of everything in NY state government. And it's tomorrow. And the district includes my college, Sarah Lawrence (though I'm registered in Somers so I cant vote in it)
more info: https://www.vox.com/2018/4/23/17259112/new-york-special-election-shelley-mayer-julie-killian-simcha-felder Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+16/D+11) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 23, 2018, 11:31:19 PM Unsure if this goes here, but there's a special election for NY State Senate that could determine the control of everything in NY state government. And it's tomorrow. And the district includes my college, Sarah Lawrence (though I'm registered in Somers so I cant vote in it) more info: https://www.vox.com/2018/4/23/17259112/new-york-special-election-shelley-mayer-julie-killian-simcha-felder Yep: there are 11 state legislative races today (all in NY): Congressional:
State Legislative
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+17/D+11) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 25, 2018, 02:30:21 AM After tonight's specials:
Avg congressional swing, cycle-to-date: D+17.3 Avg state legislative swing, cycle-to-date: D+10.6 Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+17/D+11) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 25, 2018, 08:18:45 PM On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016.
AL-SD 26 AL-HD 4 AR-SD 16 AR-SD 29 AR-HD 83 Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 27, 2018, 03:29:50 AM ()
* Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 27, 2018, 08:22:07 PM Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (D+17/D+11) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 27, 2018, 08:52:42 PM On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016. AL-SD 26 AL-HD 4 AR-SD 16 AR-SD 29 AR-HD 83 Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 27, 2018, 09:04:11 PM On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016. AL-SD 26 AL-HD 4 AR-SD 16 AR-SD 29 AR-HD 83 For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/63912/184685/Web01/en/summary.html#) (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated. For AL, this file (http://sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/download-icon.svg) has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized. I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 27, 2018, 09:15:09 PM On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016. AL-SD 26 AL-HD 4 AR-SD 16 AR-SD 29 AR-HD 83 For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/63912/184685/Web01/en/summary.html#) (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated. For AL, this file (http://sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/download-icon.svg) has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized. I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 27, 2018, 09:17:56 PM Y
On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016. AL-SD 26 AL-HD 4 AR-SD 16 AR-SD 29 AR-HD 83 For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/63912/184685/Web01/en/summary.html#) (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated. For AL, this file (http://sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/download-icon.svg) has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized. I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 27, 2018, 09:18:45 PM Y On a related note, I wonder if anybody could help with compiling 2016 presidential figures for the upcoming AL & AR races? Daily Kos doesn't have these figures and in the case of the legislative races themselves, none had competition in 2016. AL-SD 26 AL-HD 4 AR-SD 16 AR-SD 29 AR-HD 83 For AR, it looks like you can find precinct results here (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/63912/184685/Web01/en/summary.html#) (click on the county, then click on the house-looking icon for precinct by precinct). Each HD/SD's precincts would need to be manually matched up and/or precinct splits would have to be approximated. For AL, this file (http://sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/download-icon.svg) has all of the data in it...it's just somewhat poorly organized. I'm assuming there is a reason why Daily Kos never got AL & AR (and MS) presidential results by LD uploaded, but all the data seems to be there. I just don't have time to organize it at the moment. If you or anybody else finds this to be easier than it appears, then there are also a good chunk of specials that have already occurred for which it'd be good to have the presidential numbers, too. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Adam Griffin on April 28, 2018, 12:17:58 AM ^ Thanks!
Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Young Conservative on May 17, 2018, 03:43:06 PM http://www.politicspa.com/parties-trade-state-house-special-election-wins/87547/
(http://www.politicspa.com/parties-trade-state-house-special-election-wins/87547/) Not sure if anyone shared this information. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on July 06, 2018, 10:11:32 PM () * Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap. Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic. Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: Skill and Chance on July 14, 2018, 03:05:27 PM () * Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap. Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic. Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races. The Dem swing seems more Midwestern focused to me. Republicans are holding up surprisingly well in GA and LA (although their unique election system complicates any comparisons) and even MS. In AL, I would ignore any results that were on the same special election ballot as the Roy Moore race, as that was a very exceptional circumstance. Perhaps tariff backlash in farm country is a factor here? Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings Post by: Adam Griffin on September 01, 2018, 08:31:28 AM Not a lot going on this summer...updated results from June 4 until now. In those 8 races where comparisons can be made, there was a 6.4 point swing to the Democrats. If you don't include CA's races (which are weird and have significant differences between presidential and down-ballot that'll always be present), then it's a 19.5 point swing (and if you just exclude CA SD32 - for reasons mentioned below - it's a 9.7 point swing). The last margin there I think is the most reasonable and accurate portrayal of current climate.
The only reason I say "excluding CA" is because my formula isn't great for situations like that (i.e. jungle primaries & situations where Democrats win downballot by 5 points and win presidentials by 40). In 2 of the 4 CA summer races, Democrats hit the same number margin-wise as the last Democrat to run for the legislative seat (and in 1 other, exceeded it substantially); it's just that Clinton did phenomenally well - particularly in SD32 - compared to legislative Democrats, which gives 3 of the 4 races a R swing, and in 1 of the races, it was D vs D last time, leaving no margin to balance out Clinton's relative over-performance. Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (NEED HELP) Post by: jamestroll on September 01, 2018, 08:35:42 AM () * Incomplete results; do not have data for Clinton margins in all special elections This reminds me of that map of young voters you did for 2014. The greatest intensity for the Dems was in the South as was the greatest youth gap. Now the sharpest swings seem to concentrate towards the South where Republican's are propped up by inelastic older whites, but younger voters both white and minority are much more Democratic. Perhaps those younger voters are starting to show up in low turnout races. The Dem swing seems more Midwestern focused to me. Republicans are holding up surprisingly well in GA and LA (although their unique election system complicates any comparisons) and even MS. In AL, I would ignore any results that were on the same special election ballot as the Roy Moore race, as that was a very exceptional circumstance. Perhaps tariff backlash in farm country is a factor here? Trump probably over performed and was like 10 years into the future in the Midwest. The 2018 midterm swings will be hysterical from 2016 presidential voting patterns in the Midwest. There never was a blue wall if you look at results since 2000. It will also be hysterical when those same states that make the huge Democratic swings in 2018 become the same states that deny Democrats an electoral college majority in 2020. The new red wall. haha Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED) Post by: Adam Griffin on September 01, 2018, 08:58:23 AM Just for those who are curious (as of today):
Quote Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9 Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1 Average congressional swing, 2018: D+17.5 Average state legislative swing, 2018: D+11.0 ================================ Avg congressional swing, cycle-to-date: D+16.5 Avg state legislative swing, cycle-to-date: D+9.9 Title: Re: 2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 01:12:21 AM bump (ignore this post)
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