Talk Elections

VA-GOV

49.7% Northam (D)
47.5% Gillespie (R)
2.8% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

51.0% Fairfax (D)
48.6% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.5% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)
4.5% Others

New York mayoral election

69% DeBlasio (D, inc.)
31% Others

Now get really into the weeds and predict legislatures too hehe

Hmm, I really don't see Gillespie doing all that well. While I know he over performed polls in 2014, he still didn't manage to unseat Warner. Considering that was a heavy Republican year, I would say his 2014 performance, 48.3%, is closer to a ceiling than it is a floor.

I disagree because the national GOP never really invested in that race, thinking it was Safe D.  If they had, we very likely would have a Senator Gillespie right now.  I think that Gillespie can win that race, even if Virginia is trending away from us.

Northern Virginia was pretty kind to Gillespie in 2014. With Trump as president, they won't be nearly as favourable to the Republican. I'd wager on either Democrat easily winning by high single digits or low double-digits. Setting the stage for Tim Kaine winning by over 20% in his re-election campaign next year.

VA-GOV:

50.8% Northam
46.3% Gillespie
2.9% Other

49.9% Perriello
47.3% Gillespie
2.8% Other

52.7% Northam/Perriello
44.2% Stewart
3.1% Other

I think the third-party vote is gonna be much smaller than 2013, although I'd laugh if Sarvis ran again.

VA-HOD:

D+11 with Northam, D+6 with Perriello

NJ-GOV:

59% Murphy
39% Guadagno

NYC-Mayor:

De Blasio landslide

Are you serious? You really believe VA GOV is going to be so close with Trump at -15 in approval right now?

iirc, Trump actually has an even worse approval rating in Virginia - something like 20+ points underwater. I'm more inclined to think the Democratic nominee wins by a comfortable amount (similar to Clinton, or more), with maybe a ceiling around ~10 points in the best case scenario. Gillespie had a favorable environment in 2014, and while he did well then I don't think that means he will this time. Though, I'd like to see some polls once the candidates are chosen.

Murphy - double digits easy. 12 - 16 points is my guess for now.

VA-GOV
51% Either Democrat
46% Gillespie

NJ-Gov
61% Murphy
37% Guadagno

New York Mayor
68% Deblolsio
32% Scattered Losers

Virginia Gov
Perriello 56%
Gillespie 42%

Northam 54%
Gillespie 44%

New Jersey Gov
Wisniewski 62%
Guadagno 36%

Murphy 58%
Guadagno 40%

Virginia Gov
Perriello 55
Gillespie 45

Northam 52
Gillespie 48%

New Jersey Gov

Murphy 56%
Guadagno 43%

New York Mayor
De Blasio 53
Malliotakis 47

VA-GOV
Northam or Periello 52%
Gillespie 46%

NJ-GOV
Murphy 62%
Guadagno 37%

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio ~75%

VA-GOV
Ralph Northam +5 against Ed Gillespie

NJ-GOV
Phil Murphy +17 against Kim Guadagno

Wait, TN Volunteer, you've been saying that VA is out of reach for Republicans. These look like tossup numbers.

Virginia almost never votes in a governor of the same party as the White House,  2013 is literally the only exception in modern history.

Trump is utterly hated in Virginia too,  so the Republican's chances there look pretty darn small, no matter how good Gillespie supposedly is there.  (Which I disagree with,  Gillespie is a mediocre candidate)

Cooch probably wins in 2013 if it wasn't for the Government shutdown.

Northam wins by 5

Murphy wins by 15

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

VA
Northam 53.3
Gillespie 45.2

Perriello 54.0
Gillespie 44.7

NJ
Murphy 61.7
Guadagno 37.5

VA

Governor: Perriello 53%/Gillespie 44%
Dems hold LG and AG
State House: 54R/46D

NJ

Governor: Murphy 58.5%/Guadagno 40.3%

State House: D+4
State Senate: D+2

Gillespie, like Cory Gardner, was a warm body at the right time - well, almost right time in Gillespie's case. Sadly for him (and good for the people of Virginia), I don't think magic is going to happen twice - now people are going to actually pay attention to how much of a partisan hack he is and also affiliate him with the President who Virginians (particularly in Northern Virginia) hate.

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough :P

I mean, Clinton carried 51 house seats, and 46 by more than 5 points. Iniially my prediction was more 45-55 but considering Trump has a 35% approval ratings in VA, I really expect VA republicans to suffer from many losses.

VA-Gov
✓ Northam or Periello 51.3%
Gillespie 45.9%

NJ-GOV
✓ Murphy 58.8%
Guadagno 37.4%

NYC-Mayor
✓DeBlasio ~75%

I really don't know. I hope you are right, but Democrats lost some of the seats Clinton won (even some she won by more than five) in the 20 point range in 2015. I might develop a guide to see where the Dems best chances of a pick up could be.

VA-Governor
Northam: 49%
Gillespie: 45%

NJ-Governor
Murphy: 57%
Guadagno: 39%

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio: 65%

The Trump effect will have an adverse effect on Gillespie

It will be interesting to see if Bob Marshall finally loses in Prince William county.  If Dems are picking up more than 5 or 6 seats in the HOD, Marshall almost certainly loses.

The Trump-Russia scandals should hurt more in NOVA than just about anywhere else in the country.  VA Dems should be quite optimistic about what they could achieve. 

Two different Democrats have ~$30,000 more than Marshall.

Kingsweden, Virginia and everyone else, I just looked at the incumbent not running for reelection:


1) Mark Dudenhefer (R) - District 2
Won by HRC  and Obama by 20 points.

2) Bill Howell (R) - District 28
Won by  Trump and Obama by less than 1 point.

3) Dave Albo (R) - District 42
Won by Obama by 6 points and by HRC by 23 points.
 
4) Peter Farrell (R) - District 56 Safe Rep

5) Rick Morris (R) - District 64 Safe Rep

6) Jimmie Massie (R) - District 72
Won by Romney by 9 points and by HRC by 5 points.

7) Daun Sessoms Hester (D) - District 89 Safe Dem


Just based on the incumbent retiring they will already pick up 4 seats.

I looked at the VA house assembly presidential results
71   D   89,7   10,3   
69   D   87,4   12,6   
49   D   84,1   15,9   
89   D   82,2   17,8   
47   D   81,8   18,2   
46   D   81,6   18,4   
45   D   80,4   19,6   
70   D   80,2   19,8   
57   D   80,1   19,9   
92   D   79   21   
90   D   77,9   22,1   
48   D   76,5   23,5   
95   D   76,4   23,6   
53   D   76,2   23,8   
52   D   75,9   24,1   
74   D   75,4   24,6   
77   D   75,4   24,6   
80   D   74,6   25,4   
38   D   74,4   25,6   
36   D   73,7   26,3   
43   D   73,6   26,4   
44   D   73   27   
39   D   71   29   
35   D   70,9   29,1   
37   D   70   30   
63   D   69,1   30,9   
86   D   68,8   31,2   
41   D   67,4   32,6   
67   R   64,2   35,8   
11   D   64,1   35,9   
87   D   63,5   36,5   
79   D   62,5   37,5   
42   R   62,2   37,8   
34   D   61,4   38,6   
32   R   61,1   38,9   
2   R   60,7   39,3   
93   D   60,2   39,8   
75   D   58,1   41,9   
13   R   57,8   42,2   
50   R   57,4   42,6   40th
40   R   55,9   44,1   
68   R   55,9   44,1   
31   R   55,4   44,6   
51   R   54,7   45,3   
73   R   54,2   45,8   45th
10   R   53,3   46,7   
94   R   52,9   47,1   
72   R   52,8   47,2   
21   R   52,4   47,6   
12   R   51,6   48,4   50th
100   R   51,4   48,6   
85   R   49,7   50,3   
28   R   49,4   50,6   
27   R   48,8   51,2   
84   R   47,7   52,3   
62   R   47,3   52,7   
83   R   46,2   53,8   
76   R   45,9   54,1   
14   R   45,8   54,2   
26   R   45,8   54,2   
91   R   44,3   55,7   
54   R   44,2   55,8   
96   R   44   56   
60   R   43   57   
33   R   42,9   57,1   
88   R   42,8   57,2   
58   R   42,1   57,9   
82   R   41,7   58,3   
56   R   40,5   59,5   
61   R   40,3   59,7   
99   R   40,3   59,7   
78   R   40,1   59,9   
55   R   39,2   60,8   
20   R   39,1   60,9   
25   R   39,1   60,9   
81   R   39,1   60,9   
64   R   38,2   61,8   
66   R   38,2   61,8   
16   R   37,9   62,1   
30   R   37,1   62,9   
17   R   36,9   63,1   
18   R   36,9   63,1   
65   R   36,5   63,5   
59   R   35,9   64,1   
29   R   35,3   64,7   
8   R   34,9   65,1   
23   R   34,4   65,6   
98   R   34,2   65,8   
7   R   34   66   
22   R   33,3   66,7   
24   R   32,3   67,7   
97   R   29,3   70,7   
9   R   27,3   72,7   
19   R   26,7   73,3   
15   R   26   74   
5   R   21,9   78,1   
4   R   21,4   78,6   
6   R   21,4   78,6   
1   R   18   82   
3   R   16,7   83,3   


So Hillary won 51 seats,
She won 40 seats by more than 15 points
She won 45 seats by more than 8 points
She won 48 seats by more than 5 points

VA-Governor
Northam: 48%
Gillespie: 46%

VA-Lt. Governor
Vogel: 51%
Fairfax: 49%

VA-Attorney General
Herring: 57%
Adams: 43%

VA HoD: 56-44

NJ-Governor
Murphy: 53%
Guadagno: 42%
Genovese: 5%

NJ Senate: 24-16

NJ House: 50-30

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio: 61%

Look at the polls now, Gillespie trails by a lot now.

Perriello: 54%
Gillespie: 44%

Northam: 52%
Gillespie: 46%

Murphy:  59%
Guadagno: 39%

De Blasio: bigwinz %'s

Genovese is not going to get 5% of the vote on Nov. 7. She's not Chris Daggett. Also I would be very surprised if Kim Guadagno got as high a percentage as 42%

Someone's irrationally enthusiastic. ;)

VA-GOV:

51.8% Northam (D)
45.3% Gillespie (R)

Perriello:

49.9% Perriello (D)
49.0% Gillespie (R)


NJ-GOV

59% Murphy (D)
38% Guadagno (R)

New York mayoral election

63% DeBlasio (D)
31% Republican
6% Others

Pretty sure either Democrat would be slightly if not moderately favored over Gillespie. True, Gillespie has name recognition, but I've been in Northern VA recently, (VA-10 and VA-08) and Trump is utterly despised there. Unless Gillespie somehow distances himself from Trump while not turning off the Republican base, I don't see how he'd win. Also, I'm thinking Perriello would at least over-perform in SW and Southside VA, while Northam would over-perform in Tidewater. Something like a 52-48 D win. The house of delegates also stays in R control with a significantly lower majority.

Any Democrat (most likely Murphy in this case) would be favored in New Jersey, due to the national environment and NJ's strong D lean. We're talking a win in the high 50s. I kind of doubt Murphy will break 60% though. Ds also get a supermajority in both houses.

Northam is a safer bet but he has a much lower ceiling.  He probably gets the standard 1-4% "saved by Fairfax" win like most Democrats in the last decade.  Perriello has much more upside because he could both turn out the base and connect with more rural voters than normal for VA Dems and more downside because he isn't very experienced at campaigning and could scare the Dem leaners in Fairfax and Loudoun if they think his policies will lead to CA/NY level taxes.  He could win 54/43, but he could also blow it. 

Am I the only one here who disagrees with this part of the comment?

IMO he's focusing way too much on social issues to do meaningfully better than Clinton in any of the rural areas.  Unless you think Fairfax would give Perriello a lower ceiling?

My thoughts as well, plus I think his supposed strength in rural VA is dubious and quite exaggerated, to say the least. I could be wrong of course, but I'd be surprised if Perriello didn't make social issues a key focus of his campaign as well if he won the nomination.

Oh, I forgot to give my VA-LG and VA-AG predictions:

VA-LG

51.9% Fairfax (D) (assuming he wins the primary, which is not guaranteed)
47.5% Republican (I have no idea who's gonna win the R primary for this one, it's been pretty wild (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/soap-operatic-gop-race-for-va-lieutenant-governor-to-play-out-in-courtroom/2017/05/23/f47bc2e4-3fd3-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?utm_term=.80c078d03178))
0.6% Other

VA-AG

52.4% Herring (D)
47.2% Adams (R) (he's actually a pretty good candidate, so don't expect a landslide here)
0.4% Other



I agree with you on this part, but both candidates have just been offering red meat to the primary base. The difference between the two is that I think Northam is more capable of pivoting to the middle since that's his equilibrium position, while Perriello won't be steered off his "bold progressive" course. That's why I think he's not gonna do as well in rural VA as his supporters think, especially outside his old district.

Also, Northam already revealed the path to a large Democratic victory in the state in 2013. Do I think he will do as well as last time in rural VA (not necessarily Appalachia)? Not really, but any Democrat winning Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach by 9 points the way Northam did is on track for a sizable win. His military background is worth something, as far as I'm aware.

Now Perriello does have an ace up his sleeve: Obama. From what I know, Perriello's staff is comprised of both Hillary and Bernie "people", but if they're smart, both wings will realize that keeping Bernie out is a must and getting Obama to campaign for him would be huge in NoVA and the predominantly black corridor of Eastern VA. Sanders isn't complete anathema Northern Virginia, but yes, Obama and his brand of liberalism are much more compatible across many demographics, and no, I don't think you can have both.

I don't have confidence that Perriello's campaign is disciplined enough to pull off that scheme though, so while I suppose Perriello has a marginally higher ceiling, Northam is more likely to hit his.

VA-GOV
50% Perriello (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

NJ-GOV
56% Murphy (D)
43% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
72% DeBlasio (D)

VA-GOV
49% Northam (D)
47% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV
50% Fairfax (D)
46% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN
52% Herring (D)
45% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy (D)
37% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor
70% DeBlasio (D)

VA-GOV
52% Northam
45% Gillespie

NJ-GOV
59% Murphy
39% Guadango

53% Northam
45% Gillespie

59% Murphy
39% Guadango

49% Gillespie
48% Northam


57% Murphy
40% Guadango

NJ:
54% Murphy
40% Guadagno

VA:
48% Northam
47% Gillespie

Guadagno is going down worse than Buono. Christie + Trump = NJ electing a ham sandwich by +20 points as long as theirs a D in front of it on the ballot.

New Jersey

Murphy 65%
Guagdano 33%

Virginia

Northam 51%
Gillespie 47%

New York City Mayor

De Blasio 64%
Malliotakis 35%

Bonus-Alabama Senate

Republican (Mo Brooks) 60%
Democrat (Doug Jones) 40%

The 2017 General Election Predictions are now open at:
Link (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2017/pred.php)

Enjoy,
Dave

Thanks Dave.

On another topic, can you take away my global deletion powers and give them to Modadmin Muon2?:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=256

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but I emailed you about this some time ago, and didn't get a response, so I figured posting in a thread where you just posted a few minutes ago might get your attention.

Thanks - this is done.
Best,
Dave

Thank you!

Still VA tilts D and solid for Murphy in VA

Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 49%, Northam 47%

New Jersey:
Phil Murphy 61%, Kim Guadagno 37%

Subject to change, of course. I don't even know why I'm bothering, since I've never predicted a major election correctly.

Virginia (Lean D)
New Jersey (Likely D)

VA:

Northam 50-47
Fairfax 52-47
Herring 57-39

Dems +11 in HoD

NJ:

Murphy 60-38

Dems gain supermajority in Assembly, fall one seat shy in Senate

NYC:

De Blasio 75-21

Seattle:

Durkan 51-49 (I'd like for Moon to win but Think Durkan narrowly takes it)

WA SD45:

Dhingra 54-46, Dems retake WA State Senate

No offense but that doesn't seem compatible a +3 Northal victory with a +11 house districts. Remember Mcauliffe won by the same margin and the House was still 67-33

Observationally, recruitment/retirements favor Dems more this year than '13 or '15

It actually fits with the idea that gubernatorial races can be notably less influenced by the national party, but with legislative elections where candidates aren't that well-known being overly influenced by the national environment, which studies do show evidence of. In Virginia's case, you could assume then that the electorate is pretty overwhelmingly leaning towards Democrats this cycle, but that Gillespie has been effective in separating himself from his party's national brand.

Personally, I think Northam will win by more, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was as close as you suggested.

I think Northam wins too - but I've been burned prediction-wise many times over the last 2 years, so I'm being conservative here

VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 48%
Other: 2%

NJ:
Murphy: 65%
Guadagno: 32%
Other: 3%

VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 44%
Hyra: 6%

NJ:
Murphy: 62%
Guadagno: 35%

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.

That's why I made these results actually think the governors race could be even closer like Washington in 2004. The one I'm most unsure about is the Adams herring race just because of how close it was last time.

I too think Herring is overated. Everyone is biting their nails in gov and lt gov races, but nearly everything and everyone (including early polls) are shrugging and saying, oh that guy, lol, he's a shoo in. Something makes me not buy it... I still think he will win, but by small margins, and possibly a plurality, though probably a slim majority.

I agree plus with the name john Adams that should help him out.

VA Dems should sweep all three races.

As a reminder of turnout: (June primary #'s)
Total D votes for Gov: 543,000
Total R votes for Gov: 366,000
177,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Total D votes for Lt Gov: 514,000
Total R votes for Lt Gov: 355,000
159,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Trump Fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. Can't wait to see the tweets from Trump on election eve. ;)

Let's hope you are right.

I really honestly think the polls on trump are wrong because look at RCP polls of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Hillary was ment to win Wisconsin by 6 points she lost by 1 point

As for Virginia if trump weren't the nominee Rubio or kaisch heck I think even ted Cruz would have won barely trump was worst fit for Virginia

As for the dems sweeping it is 100% possible that northam wins but I honestly think ed Gillespie is going to eke it out barely but right now I think there is a shot it becomes the closest governors race in history.

I agree that Rubio or Kasich would have done better than Trump, but probably not enough to win the state. As far as Cruz, he would have been stomped here in 2016. Most Virginians (myself included) prefer moderate politicians from both parties. Demographic changes since 2004 have shifted enough that I can't even see someone similar to George W. Bush being able to win the Virginia of today.

VA-GOV

48.81% Northam (D)
46.02% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV

49.81% Fairfax (D)
47.10% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN

54.85% Herring (D)
44.15% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.97% Murphy (D)
42.36%% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor

68.6% DeBlasio (D)
31.4% (R+O)

VA-GOV

Gillespie (R)  50.24%
Northam (D) 48.86%

VA-LT GOV

Fairfax (D) 49.36%
Vogel (R) 48.74%

VA-AT GEN

Herring (D) 53.45%
Adams (R) 45.55%

NJ-GOV

Murphy (D) 56.34%
Guadagno (R) 43.66%

New York Mayor

DeBlasio (D) 72.3%
(R): 28.6%

IN YOUR DREAMS! ;)

Updated

VA-GOV
Northam - 52%
Gillespie - 45%

VA-LT GOV
Fairfax - 51%
Vogel - 46%

VA- ATT GEN
Herring - 55%
Adams - 44%

NJ - GOV
58% Muphy
39% Guadagno


70% for Deblasio, but bolder prediction sick weirdo Bo Dietl beats whatever Staten Islander is on the Republican ticket.

Okay so I think it's time I add on to my predictions

Washington state senate seat 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund 43.29%
Manka Dhingra 56.20%

Now so a lot of people of been trashing me for my predictions but so I have done margins on 2 races and my error is only 1.3% the two were Georgia 6th the run-off and the Alabama run-off yesterday.

I actually think that's a pretty fair prediction for WA-SD45

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

Changes:
Virginia (Likely D)
New Jersey (Safe D)

Stand by your likely democrat call?

Keeping this, no changes.

VA-GOV:
Northam - 50.7%
Gillespie - 47.0%
Hyra - 2.3%

VA-LG:
Fairfax - 52.1%
Vogel 47.5%

VA-AG:
Herring - 52.4%
Adams - 47.3%

VA-HoD:
Republicans - 58
Democrats - 42 (+8)

NJ-GOV:
Murphy - 57.0%
Guadagno - 41.5%

VA

51.3-46.7 Northam
53.4-46.2 Fairfax
54.7-45.1 Herring
+9 D in the House of Delegates

NJ

57.4-42.1 Murphy

Virginia Governor
48.26% Ed Gillespie (R)
47.95% Ralph Northam (D)

Lieutenant Governor
48.67% Justin Fairfax (D)
47.84% Jill Vogel (R)

New Jersey Governor
54.13% Phil Murphy (D)
45.87% Kim Guadagno (R)

lol :)

VA-Gov

Ralph Northam (D):  49.4%
Ed Gillespie (R):  48.8%

NJ-Gov

Phil Murphy (D):  52%
Kim Guadagno (R):  40%

There's no way to know for sure whether a poll is an outlier or not until the election has actually been held. That AL-Fox poll could certainly be accurate, especially if most undecideds are GOP-leaning voters. I think the VA-Quinnipiac/WaPo polls are nonsense, but I wouldn't simply entirely dismiss the idea that they could be accurate or ignore them. You're acting as if the results the election are basically set in stone.

And no, I've always said that this race is Lean/Likely D, and it seems like people on this forum are greatly exaggerating the importance of "candidate quality" anyway - polarization, the partisan lean of a state/district as well as the political environment (also at the state level) are equally important factors. Like I said before, I find this idea that VA is still winnable for Rs incredibly ridiculous in general.

Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 51%, Northam 46%

New Jersey:
Phil Murphy 53%, Kim Guadagno 45%

I'll probably end up eating crow over this, but whatevs :P

You should explain why you think the Republican is going to win by 5% when Democrats enjoy every advantage this cycle. Even Hillary won our state by over 5% and you think Gillespie is going to win by roughly this same margin? Oh pulease. This is the New Dominion. Northam's win will make 4 wins out of our last 5 governor races.

VA Gov
Ralph Northam (D)  52%
Ed Gillespie (R)           46%

VA LG
Justin Fairfax (D)   51%
Jill Vogel (R)              47%

VA AG
Mark Herring (D)    54%
Adams (R)                45%

NJ Gov
Phil Murphy (D)     56%
Kim Guadagno (R)     42%

NYC Mayor
Bill de Blasio (D)     60%
Nicole Malliotakis (R)   23%
Bo Dietl (I)                 13%
The rest                     ~4%

New Jersey (Governor):

Phil Murphy (D): 52.5%
Kim Guadagno (R): 41.0%
Gina Genovese (I): 3.5%
Seth Kaper-Dale (G): 2.0%
Peter Rhorman (L): 1.0%
Other: 0.0%


Virginia (Governor):

Ralph Northam (D): 50.0%
Ed Gillespie (R): 46.5%
Cliff Hyra (L): 3.5%


New York City (Mayor):

Bill De Blasio (D): 61.0%
Nicole Malliotakis (R): 29.0%
Bo Dietl (I): 5.0%
Sal Albanese (REF): 3.0%
Other: 2.0%



Predictions of results are rounded to the nearest percentage point or the nearest half-percentage point.

There is no “Other”.

Your NYC numbers total to 110% (not that it really matters).

Edited.  Thanks, guys.

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

VA-Gov.
Northam (D): 52%
Gillespie (R): 45%
Hyra (L): 3%

VA-LGov.
Fairfax (D): 52%
Vogel (R): 48%

VA-At.Gen
Herring (D): 55%
Adams (R): 45%
------------------------------------------------------------------
NJ-Gov.
Murphy (D): 55%
Guadagno (R): 38%
Other: 7%
------------------------------------------------------------------
NYC-Mayoral
de Blasio (D): 62%
Malliotakis (R): 21%
Albanese (I): 9%
Dietl (I): 4%
Other: 4%
------------------------------------------------------------------
AL-Sen.
Moore (R): 52.2%
Jones (D): 47.8%

Probably WI's.

I was thinking write-ins, as well as others, but now that there are no others, I fixed it.

VA (Governor):

50.1% Ralph Northam (D)
47.0% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.5% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins

NJ (Governor):

60.3% Phil Murphy (D)
38.0% Kim Guadagno (R)
  1.7% Others

NY (Mayor):

64.4% Bill de Blasio (D)
35.6% Others

UT-03 (Special Election):

67.6% John Curtis (R)
32.4% Others

---

I expect a general backlash against POTUS Trump, like it is the case in every off-year election at the start of a new President's term. Which means Democrats defend VA (I don't buy the close polls there) and will pick up NJ easily (Christie has been a trainwreck in the past years). De Blasio will easily win re-election in NYC as well. Republicans will easily win the UT-03 special election.

I'll post another prediction for the AL Senate special election in December.

VA (Governor):

50.9% Ralph Northam (D)
46.7% Ed Gillespie (R)
  2.4% Cliff Hyra (L)
  0.4% Write-Ins

VA (Lt. Governor):

49.9% Justin Fairfax (D)
49.7% Jill Vogel (R)
  0.5% Write-Ins

VA (Attorney General):

55.3% Mark Herring (D)
44.4% John Adams (R)
  .3% Others

UT-03 (Special Election):

60.6% John Curtis (R)
31.4% Kathie Allen (D)
  7.2 Jim Bennett (I)
  .8 Others

Has anyone found projections for NJ legislature?

VA Gov.

50.8% Ralph Northam (D)
44% Ed Gillespie (R)
4.8% Cliff Hyra (L)


VA Lt Gov.

50.6% Justin Fairfax (D)
49.4% Jill Vogel (R)


VA AG

53% Mark Herring (D)
47% John Adams (R)

NJ Gov.

58.4% Phil Murphy (D)
41.8% Kim Guadagno (R)

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%.

VA Gov.

50% Ralph Northam (D)
47% Ed Gillespie (R)
3% Cliff Hyra (L)


VA Lt Gov.

51% Justin Fairfax (D)
49% Jill Vogel (R)


VA AG

54% Mark Herring (D)
46% John Adams (R)

NJ Gov.

57% Phil Murphy (D)
40% Kim Guadagno (R)
3% other

()

Northam 51.6%
Gillespie 46.1%
Hyra 2.3%

Fairfax 52.2%
Vogel 47.4%

Herring 52.6%
Adams 47.1%

Discuss.

Yeah it could go either way. I don't really know much about Eastern Shore politics, but I assume Gillespie is good enough to hold on to a plurality in a solidly Republican county even if Northam has hometown appeal.

Update:

VA

GOV: Northam 49%/Gillespie 47.5%, county map is McAuliffe - Loudoun + VA Beach and Accomack
LG: Fairfax 51%/Vogel 48%
AG: Herring 53%/Adams 47%

HoD: 59R/41D (D+7)

I now think Northam will trail the rest of the Dem ticket.

Early vote in Accomack is almost 200% what it was in 2013. I have a gut feeling they are pumped about having an Eastern Shore governor.

Changing this due to recent events.

48.7-47.4 Gillespie
50-47 Vogel
51-49 Herring
 
+0 net gain for either party in VA HOD. Democrats pickup 2 seats but lose two others, all in nova.

NJ the same

()

Interestingly enough, I remember a while ago looking at polls for Northam that also had HoD generic numbers, and it wasn't uncommon for Democrats to lead in the HoD poll by more than Northam's margin. Or in other words, the Republican brand is not so great in Virginia right now.

Even if Gillespie pulled off a slim win, HoD Republicans are a bit overextended at this point. They are almost surely going to suffer a net loss, and probably not a tiny one either.

Given recent events i think Gillespie will edge it out but it will be within 1-2 points. Maybe even a recount.

Why would the indictments help Gillespie?

lol :)

I think people are too confident Northam will lose now.  Definitely pointing toward another 2013/14 style margin, but the lean of the state carried a worse candidate last year. 

Clinton was doing far better in the late polls though. Last 5 polls for President give you Clinton +5.0 (Average), versus Northam +0.7.

Clinton's average also wasn't littered by garbage like The Trolling Company.

The last Quinn poll for Clinton was +12. The last WashPo poll was was Clinton +6. The last Chris Newport poll was Clinton +6. Northam is right near all these polls.

The only major difference I see is Roanoke - was Clinton +7, tie for Northam.

Suffolk didn't even poll Virginia in 2016.

Trump pulled resources out of Virginia in September.

Feel good about this, though its possible Adams will unseat the incumbent in the end.

While I'm less confident (though still sticking by) my Northam +1.5 prediction, I am confident that the HoD will see at least a swing of D+5 or so, and maybe more. There are just so many competitive R-held seats in Clinton districts that even if Gillespie wins, the Republicans likely will still lose a handful of seats. A net change of zero is almost impossible given the current map and conditions, and would be a stunningly good night for the Republicans.

I promise you right now if the VA GOP were offered D+4 they would take it in a heartbeat.

Northam 55% - Gillespie 42%
Fairfax 56% - Vogel 44%
Herring 57% - Adams 42%
HoD: Dems +12
Murphy 47% - Guadagno 48%
DeBlasio 51% - errbody else 49%

Can I have some of whatever you're drinking?

The REAL winner of the VA Governors race:


()

That's impossible. There are only two candidates for the lieutenant gubernatorial election. Thus, the percentages of Fairfax and Bird must add up to 100%.

Write ins.

I don’t know where or how this meme started but I love it and never want it to end

I just want to be the next Rick Grimes.

But I doubt that 3% waste their vote for a write-in candidate.

Keeping my predictions, but I think Gillespie has a better chance now than he did before.

Adding VA AG and LG

VA-LG
Jill Vogel (R):  49.97%
Justin Fairfax (D): 49.84%

VA-AG
Mark Herring (D):  51.9%
John Adams (R):  48.1%

I'm sticking with this. This is my final prediction.

Going to be positive and predict an extremely narrow Gillespie win.

I hope your right. I will be very pleased if thats the final result.

Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0001%
Ralph Northam (D) - 47.9999%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

Republican gain

Lieutenant Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Jill Vogel (R) - 50.2%
Justin Fairfax (D) - 49.8%

Republican gain

New Jersey
Governor
Prediction: Lean to Likely Democratic

Phil Murphy (D) - 51.3%
Kim Guadagno (R) - 43.1%
Gina Genovese (I/RPT) - 2.2%
Seth Kaper-Dale (G) - 2.1%
Pete Rohrman (L) - 1.2%
Vincent Ross (I/WTP) - 0.1%

Democratic gain

Alabama
Senate (special)
Prediction: Lean to Likely Republican

Roy Moore (R) - 57%
Doug Jones (D) - 42%
Write-in: Ron Bishop (L) - 0.8%
Write in: Eulas Kirtdoll (I) - 0.1%
Write in: Mack McBride (I) - 0.1%

Republican hold

Utah
3rd congressional district (special)
Prediction: Likely Republican

John Curtis (R) - 49%
Kathie Allen (D) - 22.7%
Jim Bennett (UUP) - 22.6%
Joe Buchman (L) - 3.6%
Jason Christensen (IA) - 1.8%
Write-ins: 0.3%

Republican hold

After 2016 and the special elections, I now have a rule that if the margin is close, the Republican will always win by default.

Virginia: Gillepsie +2

That said, it only works for close races.

New Jersey: Murphy +14

Might as well stay consistent. Keeping this still, final prediction.

2012?  The national polls were like Obama +1 at best.  Granted, that does seem to be the only time in the past 40ish years that the left overperformed fundamentals in a meaningful way (they held both houses of congress in the 1978 Carter midterm, which was legit impressive).

Thus why I said after 2016. The explosion of racial politics during and after the Trump campaign, along with the continued deficiencies of the Democratic party, has led me to conclude that we currently live in a naturally Republican age.

I doubt that Gillispie will win (thanks to increased democratic turnout), but if he does, I will become very dubious of democratic chances of getting a good result in 2018 and shift a lot of my race ratings to the right. Northam is a trash candidate, but this seems to be a cycle in Virginia that is structurally democratic, whether by 1 or 10 points. Shame he's throwing away the HoD until 2021 thanks to him being a trash candidate, though.

Even if we are in a naturally republican age, it only has one, maybe two bullets left in the chamber. It wouldn't last beyond 2020, in any case.

I figure it’s time to update all of these

Virginia

Ed Gillespie
48.72%

Ralph Northam 48.31%

Jill Vogel 49.70%

Justin Fairfax

49.56%

John Adams

48.25%

Mark Herring

51.15%

House of delegates

+4 democrat

New Jersey

Phil Murphy

56.96%

Kim Guadagno

39.40%

Washington state senate 45th

Jinyoung Lee Englund

43.29%

Manka Dhingra

56.20%

Okay there you have it my final predictions.

I'll leave my prediction unchanged.

I have virtually not followed the races at all, but it seems Northam has made some minor campaign blunders, which means he's not winning by 10%, as he should.

Going back to these original predictions with one tweak, which is slightly less ambitious but still confident of a slight Northam victory. Still the same map for the main event though:

My final prediction:

VA-GOV

49.7% Northam (D)
47.5% Gillespie (R)
2.8% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

51.0% Fairfax (D)
48.6% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.5% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)
4.5% Others

Democrats have definitely won the expectations game this time.

Bump final changes unless something significant changes in tomorrows polling aggregate.

 

LT Gov

51.4% Justin Fairfax (D)
48.6% Jill Vogel (R)

VA AG

53.5% Mark Herring (D)
46.5% John Adams (R)

Here's my final prediction:

VA-GOV

Northam 50.1%
Gillespie 46.8%

NJ-GOV

Murphy 56.6%
Guadagno 40.7%

VA-GOV: 51 Northam-47 Gillespie-2 Hyra
NJ-GOV: 55 Murphy-40 Guadagno-5 Others
 

I'm not sure if Gillespie will actually win but that's my gut feeling so I'll submit this prediction.
2017 Virginia gubernatorial election
Ed Gillespie(R)-49.49%
Ralph Northam(D)-48.43%
Gillespie by 1.06%

Gillespie - 48.6
Northam - 48.3
Hyra - 2

Murphy - 57.1
Guadagno - 41

Northam - 52
Gillespie - 45
Hyra - 3

Fairfax - 53
Vogel - 47

Herring - 54
Adams - 46

Murphy - 61
Gaudagno - 35
Others - 4

Northam: 48.7%
Gillespie: 47.8%

Murphy: 60
Guandango: 39

To add to this, Democrats in VA HoD gain seats 2, 42, 32, 31, 67, 12, 13, 51.

Virginia, governor:
Northam (D): 50%
Gillespie (R): 48%
Hyra (L): 2%

New Jersey, governor:
Murphy (D): 58%
Guadagno (R): 39%
Other: 3%

New York City, mayoral:
De Blasio will get re-elected, but a lack of polling in this race, as well as a certain feeling of inevitability toward his win, which could soften turnout, means I'm not sure what his margin of victory will be.

This would be my "Safe" prediction.

Virginia Governor
Northam (D) 52.0%
Gillespie (R) 46.5%
Hyra (L) 1.5%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor
Fairfax (D) 53.1%
Vogel (R) 46.9%

Virginia Attorney General
Herring (D) 54.3%
Adams (R) 45.7%

New Jersey Governor
Murphy (D) 61.3%
Guadagno (R) 35.6%
Others 3.0%

Revised:
Virginia
Governor
Prediction: Tossup

Ralph Northam (D) - 48.0%
Ed Gillespie (R) - 48.0%
Cliff Hyra (L) - 3.9%
Write-ins - 0.1%

All others stay the same.

You're switching two voters from Gillespie to Northam? :)

As they say, every vote counts!

VA-GOV

49.6% Northam (D)
48.8% Gillespie (R)
1.6% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

51.8% Fairfax (D)
48.2% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.3% Herring (D, inc.)
47.7% Adams (R)

VA-HOD

+9-11 Dems

NJ-GOV

55.3% Murphy (D)
41.1% Guadagno (R)
3.6% Others

WA-45

53.2% Manka Dhingra (D)
46.8% Jinyoung Lee Englund (R)

I'm going to try to keep to whole numbers, only splitting digits in half.

VA Gov

52% Northam
46.5% Gillespie
1.5% Hyra

VA Lt Gov

51% Fairfax
49% Vogel

VA Attorney General

53% Herring
47% Adams

VA HoD
D Gain of 8 - 10 with HD 100 as a potential 11th

NJ Gov
58.5% Murphy
39% Guadango
2.5% Others

I’m feeling pretty optimistic about Virgini, Northam +10, with Fairfax trailing Northam ever so slightly, and Herring running ahead ever so slightly. 55 Republican - 45 Democratic House of Delegates seats

Not completely sure about New Jersey, but let’s say Murphy +20.

Yeah Northam will win. Turnout in Northern Virginia is higher than South West.

VA-Gov
Northam 52%
Gillepsie 46%

VA-house
D+9 seats

Northam: 53%
Gillespie: 46%

Final Predictions

Virginia Governor's Race

Ralph Northam: 49.01%
Ed Gillespie: 48.55%
Cliff Hyra: 2.03%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor's

Justin Fairfax: 50.38%
Jill Vogel: 48.15%

Virginia Attorney General

Mark Herring: 52.01%
John Adams: 47.84%

New Jersey Governor's

Phil Murphy: 52.5%
Kim Guadagno: 41.9%
Others: 5.6%

New York City Mayor's Race

Bill De Blasio: 65.83%
Nicole Malliotakis: 28.12%
Bo Dietli: 4.02%
Sal Albanese: 1.45%

Utah 3rd congressional district special Election, 2017

John Curtis: 56.38%
Kathie Allen: 29.69%
Jim Bennett: 8.03%


New York state Constitutional Convention vote, 2017

No: 55.96%
Yes: 44.04%

Atlanta 2017 Mayor's race

Keisha Lance Bottoms : 25.7%
Mary Norwood : 23.9%
Peter Aman : 14.1%
Vincent Fort : 11.9%
Cathy Woolard : 11.7%
Ceasar Mitchell : 5.1%
Kwanza Hall : 4.4%
John Eaves : 1.1%

Washington 45th District special election

Manka Dhingra: 56.03%
Jinyoung Englund; 42.97%

Virginia House of Delegates

Republicans: 56 Seats (-10)
Democrats: 44 Seats (+10

Maine Medicaid Expansion ballot initiative

Yes: 57.94%
No: 42.06%

Ohio Drug Price Relief Act

Yes: 53.58%
No: 46.42%

Cincinnati mayor election

Yvette Simpson: 50.72%
John Cranley: 49.13%

Nassau County executive election

Laura Curran: 51.02%
Jack Martins: 48.85%

Westchester county executive election

Rob Astorino: 49.75%
George Latimer: 49.16%

@Jake You forgot to predict the Seattle mayoral election.

Not too understanding of the situation and can find much polling but from what I read I would predict it something like 51-48% for Durkan

Feel great about this as we head into the last few hours of voting.

I’m sticking with all of this
Right now my margin of error is 1.4%

I didnt know we could give ourselves margin of errors.

Northam will beat Gillespie narrowly, as he's a moderate who will dominate in NoVa (the same way McAuliffe won four years ago.)  Murphy will cream Guadogno.  Mayor Weaver will be recalled in Flint.

Even when I win, I still lose

...And this is the third time where my first guess was actually the correct margin and I overestimated the Republican.

1. I got the winner correct though I badly overestimated the republican

2. Closer to the result but overestimated the republican

3. Slightly overestimated the result though this is the closest Vitgina prediction to the actual result

4. Overestimated the third party margin which results it being off by 1% in favor of Murphy

5. Badly over east images the third party's. Though by De Blasio and Malliotakis percentages are pretty good

6. I think this would pretty good

7. Got No right but didn't expect it too win by 80%

8. Overestimated Fort though this was correct in the outcome

9. At least I got the winner

10. Surprised by how much they gained here

11. Pretty spot on

12. Dead wrong

13. Wrong

14. Pretty spot on. Hopefully Martins is done after this

15. Dead wrong. Didn't expect a 57% Latimer win

Overall - Some spot on, some dead wrong, in general overeastimated Republicans.

Predicted Gov pretty good - overestimated Gillespie by 1.5%
Didn't get Lt Gov close, was fooled by the closer polls for Fairfax. Overestimated Vogel by 2%.
Attorney General was a good matching result.

VA HoD - way off, but probably better then most. I don't think anyone expected 15+. For someone who was following DDHQ constantly on this, I arguably only really though the Dem wave would make gains in NOVA and a few other places. Didn't expect the VA Beach/Richmond flips.

NJ Gov - Reasonably far off, 3% overestimated Murphy. Curse that low turnout!

Don't beat yourself up too much over this one. The most optimistic pundits didn't go any higher and most had a maximum gain of 5 or 6. So I'd say that's about as good as any prediction for this came.

I seem to be alone on this. I was expecting way more gains in the HoD for the Democrats than anybody else and was much more bullish on their chances of flipping it or coming close. I don't believe I made the prediction public, but it was definitely my expectation that the conventional wisdom was low-balling Democrats' chances.

Oopsies. Yes :3