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Title: Which governor's mansion is the best chance for a Dem pickup in 2018? Post by: LabourJersey on May 23, 2017, 07:18:30 PM I was thinking about New England politics, and was wondering about this. I'm genuinely unsure about this, so I was wonder what you all thought (aside from TN Vol, since we would all know his answer already)
Title: Re: Which governor's mansion is the best chance for a Dem pickup in 2018? Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 23, 2017, 08:15:31 PM New Hamsphire
Title: Re: Which governor's mansion is the best chance for a Dem pickup in 2018? Post by: Figueira on May 23, 2017, 10:16:27 PM New Hampshire, it's not even a question. This is actually a result of it being the most Republican of the three--in Vermont and Massachusetts, Democrats control the legislature by wide margins (veto-proof, in Massachusetts's case) and Scott and Baker are good at the balancing act they need to stay popular in their states. New Hampshire, on the other hand, has a Republican trifecta (plus the executive council) so if anything goes wrong the Republicans (including Sununu) are clearly to blame. I think Sununu is still favored because incumbents usually are, but he'll have a tough time getting re-elected.
After that I'd say Massachusetts is the most likely pickup--Setti Warren seems like a decent candidate, and Massachusetts gubernatorial elections tend to follow the national trends more than Vermont ones (Romney would have lost in 2006, for example). Maine is more likely than any of them, though. Title: Re: Which governor's mansion is the best chance for a Dem pickup in 2018? Post by: MT Treasurer on May 24, 2017, 02:19:58 AM Sununu is the most unpopular of the three, his state is the most Democratic (on the statewide level) and inelastic, he only won narrowly because his opponent in 2016 sucked, etc. The guy is basically DOA, especially if Stefany Shaheen runs. Likely D.
The others are all slightly favored. Title: Re: Which governor's mansion is the best chance for a Dem pickup in 2018? Post by: SWE on May 24, 2017, 05:32:00 AM New Hampshire. This is like asking if it's more likely to snow in New York or Texas.
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