Talk Elections

With Saturday's ratification of the unity agreement by members of Alberta's PC and Wildrose parties, a leadership race will now be starting. The leadership election is scheduled for October 28, 2017, and from what I have seen party members will be voting by preferential ballot.

The soon-to-be (once recognized by Elections Alberta) UCP caucus will be meeting tomorrow afternoon to choose an Interim Leader, who will be barred from contesting the leadership election. Three names have been thrown around as potential Interim Leaders:

• Nathan Cooper (Wildrose MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills)
• Prasad Panda (Wildrose MLA for Calgary-Foothills)
• Richard Gotfried (PC MLA for Calgary-Fish Creek)

Further details of the election will be determined by the UCP Leadership Election Committee, which will be comprised of 12 UCP members, of whom 6 each will be appointed by Brian Jean and Jason Kenney from their respective parties.

So far, there are four candidates who have been widely-discussed as running:

• Jason Kenney: Current leader of the PC Party, and former Harper Conservative Cabinet Minister and MP for Calgary Midnapore
• Brian Jean: Current leader of the Wildrose Party and MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin. Former federal Conservative MP for Fort McMurray--Athabasca
• Derek Fildebrandt: Wildrose finance critic and MLA for Strathmore-Brooks. Former Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation. Has recently been exploring a leadership bid on a "liberty conservatism" platform. Regardless of whether he ends up running, he has said he will not be supporting Brian Jean, his current party leader. Has released some policies on his website: http://www.derekfildebrandt.ca
• Doug Schweitzer: A lawyer from Calgary. Has been active in conservative party circles for a while, serving (amongst other things) as an organizer on Jim Prentice's PC leadership campaign. I believe he also used to be Executive Director of the Manitoba PC Party. Campaign website is here: http://www.dougschweitzer.com/landing-page?splash=1.
  

Kenney, Jean and Fildebrandt? A basket of deplorables. Actually, I don't mind Jean that much. Seems like a nice guy, and I felt bad that he lost his house in the wildfire last year. But either Kenney or Fildebrant as Premier would be very upsetting.
 

Cooper is interim leader. (https://twitter.com/Graham_Journal/status/889585325776879616)

Interestingly, Fildebrandt's policy examples don't seem horrible. While I do have libertarian tendencies, I would not allow myself to support someone massively reducing tax rates, although I do admire his stance on social deregulation.

Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

So, they chose a raging homophobe.

Most notably, Leaside youngster/Etobicoke teen Stephen Harper.

As an update to the race, Schweitzer, Jean, and Kenney are all officially in the race.

Jean has so far received the endorsements of seven UCP MLAs (all previously Wildrose MLAs):

• Leela Aheer (Chestermere-Rocky View)
• Todd Loewen (Grande Prairie-Smoky)
• Don MacIntyre (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
• Angela Pitt (Airdrie)
• Ron Orr (Lacombe-Ponoka)
• Glenn van Dijken (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock)
• Tany Yao (Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo)

Jean is also being supported by Blaine Calkins, MP for Red Deer--Lacombe.

Meanwhile, Kenney has received the endorsements of the following Conservative MPs:

• Michael Cooper (St. Albert--Edmonton)
• Jim Eglinski (Yellowhead)
• Garnett Genuis (Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan)
• Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend)
• Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard)
• Ron Liepert (Calgary Signal Hill)
• Arnold Viersen (Peace River--Westlock)

-----------------------------------

Mainstreet has released a poll testing how the UCP would fare in an election under each leadership candidate (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ucp-candidates-bring-strengths-weaknesses/)

Topline Results:
Jean: 59%-28%-9%-4%
Kenney: 56%-30%-9%-5%
Fildebrandt: 54%-30%-11%-5%
Schweitzer: 52%-31%-12%-6%

Including Undecideds:
Jean: 48%-21%-6%-3%-21%
Kenney: 41%-22%-6%-3%-28%
Fildebrandt: 43%-24%-8%-4%-21%
Schweitzer: 41%-23%-8%-4%-24%

Nice to see that weasel Kenney is polling worse than Jean.

Kenney's been touring around southern Alberta for the last day-and-a-half, picking up a few more endorsements from elected officials. Specifically, three UCP (all formerly WRP) MLAs are now backing Kenney: Grant Hunter (Cardston-Taber-Warner), Drew Barnes (Cypress-Medicine Hat), and Rick Strankman (Drumheller-Stettler).

Of note, Barnes was the second-place finisher behind Jean during the 2015 WRP leadership. As well, Barnes and Strankman are two of the three remaining MLAs who were part of the WRP's 2012 caucus.

Wonder if this'll be a south-vs-north battle...

Fildebrandt out, reiterates his anti-Jean stance. Will he endorse Kenney, Njall? (https://twitter.com/JamesWoodPress/status/894964417237983232)

Why is he strongly against Jean?

I would be incredibly surprised if he didn't end up backing Kenney. It's widely-known in political circles here that he backs Kenney personally, but even aside from that, he'll obviously never back Jean, and the style and substance of Kenney's politics is much closer to Fildebrandt's than Schweitzer's is. So even by simple process of elimination, Kenney would be the logical choice for him to back.



While I don't know the whole story there, the two of them seem to have a fairly long-running personal animosity that occasionally spills over into the public sphere. There was that incident, for example, when Jean briefly suspended Fildbrandt from caucus and from his finance critic role when he responded "proud to have constituents like you" to an online comment from a supporter who referred to Kathleen Wynne as "Mr. Wynne."

Jean has principles and isn't a bigot, unlike Kenney.

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story. (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/finance-critic-derek-fildebrandt-rents-downtown-digs-on-airbnb-while-claiming-housing-allowance)

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.

Incidentally, Fildebrandt is a great example of why parties should be giving fewer safe seats to non-locals. Too many staffers and activists are getting seats that could be going to some random lawyer or small businessman who keeps their foot out of their mouth.

Fildebrant is too erratic and extreme.  He is the one candidate I think who could actually lose the election for them.  Brian Jean is pretty well liked so if the party wants to ensure a win, he is probably the best choice.  Kenney is fairly polarizing type but he could do well amongst ethnic communities.  He is hated in Edmonton so would probably ensure another NDP sweep there whereas Jean at least might be able to pick up a seat or two, but in Calgary asides from a few central ridings I still suspect he would win.  He is very much like Stephen Harper so I suspect with him at the helm any area the Tories in 2015 got over 50% he would win while where they got under 50% he wouldn't (note the left is more united in Alberta provincially than federally).  I suspect he jumped into provincial politics as he knew he couldn't beat Trudeau federally.  Luckily for him Alberta is one of two provinces that didn't reject Harper in 2015 so it won't cause as much drag to him as it would in Ontario and especially BC.

I think the real danger for the UCP is not 2019, but 2023.  If they govern too much to the right I could see the centre uniting (Alberta Party, Alberta Liberals, and dissatisfied former Progressive Conservatives) and after lurching from one end to another Albertans decide to stop in the centre.  In many ways the Alberta Party is probably the party closest to the median voter but like other Western provinces as well as like you have in the UK, it seems Alberta at least next time around is moving to a strong left/right polarization and the centrist holding their nose up and voting for whichever they dislike the least.  In both the most recent BC and UK election most centrist disliked both options (both places have more of them than most realize) and simply voted for the lesser of the two evils but were unenthusiastic either way.

Forgot to post yesterday, but former WRP President Jeff Callaway is running for UCP Leader. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/former-wildrose-president-jeff-callaway-running-for-ucp-leadership)

Yes this does bring a smile to my face :D

My take on Alberta polarization is that it's not a left vs. right polarization but a centrist vs. right polarization. The NDP united the centre and centre left in 2015, while the right (which has a bigger slice of the pie) was divided. If the centre still likes the NDP going forward (most still do), I don't see the Alberta Party going anywhere. Notley may be hated by the right in Alberta, but I still think she's respected by most people in the middle. Perhaps someone in Alberta would know better though.

Not from Alberta but have family there and my take is Notley's popularity amongst the centre depends a lot on geography.  Unlike federally Edmonton and Calgary often vote quite differently and in Edmonton she is still quite popular and would likely win most if not all seats there if an election was called today.  In Calgary by contrast she has a core support of 25-30% but a lot really dislike her there and Calgary is not as right wing as in the past as it has with its younger more diverse population become more centrist and if you look at the mainstreet poll the Alberta Party is largely concentrated in Calgary.  The reason I think the Alberta Party could gain is many Red Tories from the PC side much like you saw with the federal merger will probably find the UCP too right wing but going all the way over to the NDP is a bridge too far.  For all this talk of her being quite centrist, I think that is questionable.  On things like oil sands development and pipelines, she is very centrist, but on things like deficits and government spending not so much and that is where I think the Alberta Party has potential to appeal to those who are fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  Off course in the end they may get squeezed out as lots of third parties do. 

While the election is still another 21 months away I would venture to guess the most likely outcome (but could be wrong as I have been before) is the UCP win by a landslide in popular vote, but in seats it is not nearly as big a blowout.  Otherwise Rest of Alberta is a massive win for the UCP perhaps four times as many votes as NDP and that is over 40% of Alberta.  In Calgary the UCP is the favourite but the NDP does have a strong base of 25% meaning if the economy ticks upward and the Alberta Party gains and it comes exclusively from the UCP, they might not do as badly as some think although at this point I think the UCP will win the majority of seats in Calgary but won't sweep the city.  Edmonton at least at the moment looks to stay largely NDP, possibly a complete sweep again.  That being said Edmonton does often go Tory federally, but with a lot working in the provincial civil service I suspect you have a fair number of crossover voters who vote left provincially (want higher salaries) but vote right federally (want tax cuts).

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.

Depends on who the UCP leader is too.  If the UCP leader is too right wing I think there will be enough who want a fiscally conservative but socially progressive party for a party in the centre to exist.  If the next leader is not too right wing than you are probably right.  In BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba the centre-right parties have generally been careful not go too far to the right whereas in Alberta there is an eliminate in the UCP that wants to take a hard right turn whereas in the other three provinces people know the hard right will never fly.

What's the level the NDP would have to get to in order to maintain a plurality/majority of seats?

I think that some Liberals will gravitate to the Alberta Party if the ABP becomes recognized as the consensus centrist option, but in terms of the Liberal Party as an institution, I agree with Hatman. David Khan has been unwilling (so far, at least) to talk cooperation with the ABP, and seems content to contest the next election on his party's own merits. In all likelihood, David Swann (their only remaining MLA) will retire at the next election and the ALP will be unable to keep his seat, furthering their descent into irrelevance.



There are a number of complicating factors that make this sort of question really tough to answer right now. For instance, the question of how much support third-party options like the Alberta Party will have, and the effects of the electoral boundary redistribution.

For the time being, I would say that they would need to at least hold on to their 2015 level of support to maintain a majority, and if non-UCP opposition parties prove to be non-factors, they would likely need to gain support beyond 2015 levels. Even if non-UCP opposition parties pick up a noticeable following, I would say the NDP would need at least 35% for a plurality of seats, which based on current polling would be hard to achieve, but would theoretically be in reach.

I would say 45% for a majority while depending on third parties anywhere from 35% to 42% for a plurality.  Also distribution of votes too is a big thing as the UCP is likely to run up the margins in Rural Alberta so if the NDP were to lose by say 3 or 4 points they probably still would end up with more seats as this would mean being slightly ahead in Calgary (note in Calgary while UCP is well ahead UCP support is usually about 5% below their provincewide average) while in Edmonton the NDP may sweep again, but it won't be by blowout margins last time and certainly the NDP margins in Edmonton will be much smaller than the UCP margins in Rural Alberta.  Off course with a 28 point gap, they have got a lot of work to do to overcome that.  If the election were next year, I would say they are finished, but 2019 might be enough time to recover but will be tough.  Add to the fact 59.5% voted federally for the Harper led Tories so the idea of the UCP being too right wing for Alberta seems less likely to work as I suspect most who were comfortable voting for Harper federally in 2015 would be fine voting for Kenney or Jean.  That is probably why Kenney went provincial as he knew he was too right wing to ever win federally, but could win in Alberta.

Doug Schweitzer has condemned the Rebel media and stated Conservatives should have nothing to do with them as they are supportive of neo-nazis after Faith Goldy reporting on the Charlottesville march and showing support for the alt right.  Will be interesting what impact that has.  No doubt the more right wing elements won't like him attacking the Rebel media, but it could help amongst moderates.  Also depending on how other polls show between now and the leadership will be interesting if you get a large number of progressive signing up to vote in the leadership race like they did for Alison Redford.  Back then it was a foregone conclusion the PCs would win so many unions and progressives signed up to support whomever they thought was the least bad.  At the moment most of that group is happy with the NDP, but if it looks like a UCP win is inevitable (I don't think most on the left feel it is) could we see more of them signing up?

I personally don't think you'll see a lot of (or any) progressives joining the UCP to vote for him. You've definitely touched on the first reason that I think that, namely that there's actually an NDP government in place and many or all on the progressive side would prefer to work to save their actual progressive government. Another notable difference between this leadership election and the 2011 PC leadership is that, at least from what I recall, Alison Redford was presenting herself as a relative fiscal moderate in addition to being fairly socially progressive. Here, on the other hand, while Schweitzer is certainly the most moderate candidate on social/cultural issues by far, he's proudly been branding himself as the "most fiscally conservative candidate" due to his tax cut and public sector wage cut plans.

All of that said, it will be interesting to see what impact this whole thing has on his campaign. He's certainly been getting a good amount of positive media coverage due to this, which could help bolster his fortunes.

Fildebrandt's not having a good week. (http://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4248562)

Update: Fildebrandt has quit the UCP caucus. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/derek-fildebrandt-abruptly-quits-as-more-revelations-pile-up) Probably good for the party because this weeklong saga has been a lot more entertaining than leadership news.

I was wondering whom you guys think is most likely to win the UCP leadership and also next election what the chances are.  I tried creating a separate topic but I guess too similar it got deleted. 

For UCP leadership race

Jason Kenney
Brian Jean
Other candidate

General election

UCP will definitely win the next election
UCP will likely win the next election but not certain
NDP will likely get re-elected but not certain
NDP definitely gets re-elected

I choose Jason Kenney as leader although personally my choice would be Doug Schweizer.  For the next general election, mine is UCP will likely win next election but not certain.  In terms of popular vote I will say the UCP definitely wins that, but I think there is a remote chance of the NDP winning a minority in seats while UCP winning the popular vote but that would be the most optimistic for the NDP and worst case scenario for the UCP.

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

Just for curiosity how do you think it would breakdown.  My thinking by region goes like the following.

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from Lethbridge or maybe a riding or two in the Capital region I expect a UCP sweep and maybe even those ones.

Calgary - Favours the UCP, but the NDP still has a strong base, but they would really need a perfect storm to hold most of what they have as last time it was 33% NDP, 31% PC, and 24% WRP so even if some don't support the new party it will be tough for the NDP here.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, question is whether it will be a clean sweep or just the majority of seats.

I am pretty much 100% certain the UCP will win the popular vote, otherwise an NDP minority would probably still have the UCP winning the popular vote, but do so by piling up massive margins in Rural Alberta while narrowly losing most of its urban seats.

Well, I can't say exactly until the Electoral Boundaries Commission releases its final report. But if the recommendations of the interim report were to be adopted with no changes, my thinking would go along these lines:

Seats where NDP are favoured:

• All 20 seats in Edmonton proper
• Calgary-Buffalo
• Calgary-Currie
• Calgary-Klein
• Calgary-Mountain View (pickup from Alberta Liberal)
• Calgary-Varsity
• St. Albert
• Sherwood Park
• Lethbridge-West

Total: 28 seats

Plus...

Tossups where NDP could be competitive:

• Calgary-Forest
• Calgary-Cross (if Ricardo Miranda re-runs)
• Calgary-Airport (if Irfan Sabir re-runs)
• Lethbridge-East
• Medicine Hat (if Bob Wanner re-runs)
• St. Albert-Redwater
• Strathcona-Sherwood Park
• Leduc-Beaumont
• Lesser Slave Lake
• Wetaskiwin-Camrose
• Banff-Stoney
• Grande Prairie (potential pickup)
• Red Deer-North
• Red Deer-South

Total: 14 seats

The caveat here is that, aside from not knowing what the actual boundaries would be, I'm also unsure of where a third party like the Alberta Party would be competitive. That said, if the NDP were to somehow win every seat that I've listed here, they would have 42 seats, which could be enough for a minority government.

I would say at the moment most of the toss ups are probably uphill battles, but certainly not impossible.  All of them went massively Tory federally in 2015 as well as historically lean right.  I also think in Calgary right now the UCP has a pretty strong lead so the NDP would have to cut that dramatically to win more than a few seats.  Likewise while I agree at the moment with the 28 seats mentioned I am not sure a sweep of Edmonton is a foregone conclusion but certainly possible.  Which seat is the most favourable for the UCP of the Edmonton seats?

Likewise even with 42 seats, unless the Alberta Party picks up seats, I have it as 44 seats UCP, 42 seats NDP, and 1 seat Alberta Party.  Off course it would be a razor thin majority and when you factor in the speaker, they would have to break a lot of ties, never mind one by-election loss could change things thus such scenario probably wouldn't last the full four years.

While not perfect, do you have the federal 2015 results for these as I am thinking any provincial riding where the federal Tory vote in 2015 was over 50% will probably go UCP, while if under 50% then the NDP favoured and although not perfect that would probably be the closest as I don't think you will see many Harper voters from 2015 cross over to the NDP, maybe some might go Alberta Party but Harper was fairly similar in ideology to Kenney and Jean so I suspect most of those will go UCP.  They may do slightly worse simply do due demographic change (i.e. those who died or left the province are more likely to be Tory voters, while those not old enough to vote, not Canadian citizens, or moved to Alberta more likely to be progressive voters).

Generally speaking, the most favourable seats to the UCP would be the ridings in suburban southwest Edmonton, likely Edmonton-Whitemud, Edmonton-McClung, and Edmonton-South West on the current map. Those seats tend to be wealthier and more conservative-leaning, so I'd look there first.

The Alberta Party's performance would certainly be a wildcard. In Calgary, for example, I imagine that many of the seats that the Alberta Party would be competitive in would otherwise be seats which would be favourable to the NDP (such as Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity).

I would caution against directly using federal results to predict provincial results, especially in Alberta. Speaking as an Albertan, my province is very big-C Conservative federally, but a lot of that can still be related to the western populist flavour of the federal Conservatives, and the general feeling that only the CPC will stand up for Alberta's interests. These voting intentions don't always transition over to the provincial level. For example, the city of Lethbridge voted approximately 53% for the NDP provincially in 2015, yet in the federal election, the NDP won very few polls in the city, and the Conservative candidate won the Lethbridge riding (which, to be fair, contains rural Lethbridge County in addition to the city) with 56%. Every poll in the West Lethbridge section of the city (everything west of the Oldman River) went NDP provincially and CPC federally in 2015.

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

True enough, although I doubt there will be a lot of Conservative-NDP crossovers in 2019.  Yes I can see the NDP winning in many areas that went federally Tory thus why I stated over 50% as I suspect most federal Liberal voters will go NDP provincially.  Otherwise essentially the NDP has united the progressive vote and contrary to what some claim generally Alberta is only a 60-40 split in terms of right vs. left.  I understand not everybody follows that but even if just 80% of federal Tory voters support the UCP, that would still be 48% of the popular vote which likely means a win otherwise realistically you would need about 25% of federal Tory voters to crossover which seems rather high.  In BC we used to have a lot of crossover of NDP provincially and Reform federally, but that has largely dissipated as in the case of the Interior much of that vote now goes BC Liberal provincially and likewise most on the Island (there wasn't so much of that in the Lower Mainland) is now going NDP at both levels.

Insights West released this poll (https://insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NextUCP_Tables.pdf) of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

If the party is serious about winning they should chose Brian Jean as opposed to Jason Kenney as I think Jean would fare better. Doug Schweitzer is interesting as although his tax cuts might be controversial, he is socially progressive so would take away the attacks there and it's probably in Edmonton his tax plan is more likely to run into opposition, in Calgary its more the social conservatism where the UCP could run into trouble.

Surprised Greg Clark has a negative rating as he seems quite reasonable.  Is Alberta just become so polarized that the right dislike anyone not proposing massive spending cuts while left hates anyone who opposes any fiscal restraint?  His policies seem quite balanced that involve competitive taxes, controlling spending to bring about a balanced budget over 4 years without front line service cuts.

The main take away I got from your list is how tough a situation the NDP is in.

It looks like they'll need to hold on to their 2015 voters AND hold off the Liberals/Alberta party AND take some folks from the UCP to even manage a small loss in the popular vote. Even then I raised an eyebrow at a couple of your picks (e.g. I really doubt the NDP win Medicine Hat against a united right unless they have a decent sized win). I'm not writing them off (this is Canada after all :P), but I suspect the result will look something like 1993. The progressives will sweep or near sweep Edmonton, win a handful of other seats, but the Tories will still maintain a comfortable majority.

I tend to agree.  Outside of the two main cities the two Lethbridge ridings, Sherwood Park, and St. Albert are the only four I think they have decent shots in and the first two have a large university population while the latter are suburbs of Edmonton.  In Calgary, they will probably win a few in the central parts of the city which have a younger population and are more left leaning, but not much beyond that.  The Southern part they struggled even before merging so expect the UCP to win big in the area of Harper and Kenney's federal riding.  The West and Northwest are pretty solid while Northeast and East it depends on how well the NDP does amongst ethnic groups although I think Kenney is pretty solid with them so would probably win there even if those areas might vote Liberal federally.  Edmonton I agree will probably go largely NDP although I think if they chose Jean, the UCP have a good shot at picking up some of the suburban ones particularly in the Southwestern part of the city while with Kenney a sweep is more likely.  He does as well in Calgary as Jean, but in Edmonton most polls show Jean being fairly competitive with the NDP, but Kenney well back.

I largely agree with you both. I would say not to underestimate how the NDP might do in east and northeast Calgary, especially in Calgary-Cross, where Ricardo Miranda has been a visible and popular Cabinet Minister. Miranda's margin of victory in 2015 is deceptively close, and only got that close because the PC candidate was Rick Hanson, who was the Chief of Police until he was recruited as a candidate by Prentice, and who had led a large-scale outreach effort to build positive relations between the police and ethnic communities in Calgary's northeast. In Calgary generally, I think that an NDP performance that largely mirrors the Liberals in 2008 is fairly readily achievable, but it'll be a challenge to expand beyond that.

Based on the interim reports, I also think that the results of the electoral boundaries commission will help give the NDP a bit of a boost, due to the extra seat that will be added to each of Calgary and Edmonton at the expense of rural seats, as well as due to shifted boundaries in some other parts of the province.

Expanding a bit on a few of the "unconventional" seats I identified that could also be held by the NDP...:

Grande Prairie: the boundaries commission appears set to create an entirely-urban seat in Grande Prairie. While the NDP didn't win either of the "rurban" Grande Prairie seats in 2015, I believe that they got enough votes in the city itself to have won an urban seat if it had existed. Winning this seat will still be a stretch, but creating the urban seat will at least make for a competitive race.

Lesser Slave Lake: this seat is the only Albertan seat which has a population that is majority indigenous (I believe around 54% of the population is indigenous). While Pearl Calahasen held the seat for a long time for the PCs, she was advantaged in part by coming from the area's Metis community (four of Alberta's eight Metis settlements are within the riding). As I'm sure we all know on this forum, indigenous voters tend to heavily favour the NDP over conservative parties, and that trend along with the riding's demographics and the fact that the MLA is a fairly well-known Cabinet Minister makes it competitive.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose: Bruce Hinkley won with 43% in 2015, ahead of many other rural NDP MLAs. Additionally, the boundaries commission appears set to unite the four Maskwacis Cree nations within the riding (currently, only two of the four are within the riding), and these four indigenous nations represent potentially the strongest NDP polls in the province, with the NDP earning a combined 95% of the vote there in 2015. Wetaskiwin-Camrose already had a relatively-high indigenous population (around 15%), and this will further boost it. I'm unsure how Hinkley is viewed on the ground in his riding, but between the high indigenous population, and the general population concentration in the cities of Wetaskiwin and Camrose as opposed to the rural parts of the riding, I see the NDP still being competitive here in 2019.

Banff-Stoney: this is especially contingent on the choices of the boundaries commission. However, in the interim report, the commission recommended changing the boundaries of Banff-Cochrane by removing Cochrane, and adding a portion of Rocky View County in addition to the Tsuu T'ina nation. These changes are important because Cochrane was the conservative anchor of the riding - the NDP only won about 34% here in 2015. In the rest of the riding, the NDP won 54% of the vote, including 56% in Canmore and 61% in Banff. By removing Cochrane, and replacing it in-part with an indigenous community, the commission is likely creating a riding where the NDP won over 50% of the vote in 2015, making them favoured here for 2019.

St. Albert-Redwater: this proposed seat combines St. Albert with the NDP-favouring southern portion of the current Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater riding, which makes it friendlier to the NDP than either of the current Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater or Spruce Grove-St. Albert ridings.

When it comes to the Metis, especially, the favour swings more "non-Conservative" than NDP per se; and has more often than not echoed (federally, at least) the traditional Acadian or Franco-Ontarian lean t/w the Liberals--think of a seat like Provencher in Manitoba...

Insights West (opt-in online methodology) one day... and then Mainstreet Research (IVR) with similar favourability rating question but with different results. Who to believe? -

Brian Jean: 48% favourable / 19% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 39% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 32% unsure or don't know who he is
Nathan Cooper: 10% favourable / 5% unfavourable / 85% unsure or don't know who he is
Rachel Notley: 26% favourable / 60% unfavourable / 14% unsure or don't know who she is

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/mcdavid-wins-alberta-popularity-contest/

I take the averages.  Essentially both show that Brian Jean is fairly popular so if the party wants to guarantee a win they would be best to choose him.  Jason Kenney is more divisive although he would probably still win a general election.  Both Jean and Kenney would likely dominate Rural Alberta and Calgary, but Edmonton is where the big difference would occur.  Notley would probably beat both in Edmonton but at least with Jean they would likely win seats there whereas with Kenney they risk a shutout.

Both show Notley with fairly negative ratings and compared to other premiers it is not as bad as Kathleen Wynne, so if she pulls off a surprise win next year (not likely, but you never know) then she might have hope, while similar to both Harper and Christy Clark.  The former lost pretty badly while the latter almost won mind you Horgan was much less known and his approval was more mixed not positive like Jean.

Which seats would the Alberta Party be expected to overperform in besides Calgary Elbow? I'm assuming seats with lots of well off folks who don't like right wing parties' populism and/or religiosity, but unfortunately I don't know which seats those are in Alberta :P

Mostly in Calgary, but cannot think of any off the top of my head.  If they get only in the teens in Calgary, probably no other seats or random one, but if they crack the 20% mark there you could see a few others flip.  Probably ones closest to the central part of the city as those areas tend to be wary of more right wing parties, but are fairly centrists rather than left leaning.

We've been finding that education is better as a party performance metric than income, but those two metrics tend to have at least a rough correlation themselves. Anyhow, largely because of the fact that Greg Clark comes from Calgary, I would agree that the most likely over performing seats for the AP would also come from Calgary. Specifically, the AP would be likely, at least in theory, to over perform in Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Varsity, and possibly Calgary-Glenmore. The big issue for the AP is that several of these seats are also amongst the strongest theoretical seats for the NDP in Calgary, and in a polarized election, I could see centrists and mild progressives voting to re-elect the NDP in order to keep the UCP out of office.

Outside of Calgary, there would also be some chances for the AP to over perform in parts of Edmonton, and in Alberta's smaller cities. In a contrast to Calgary, where the AP's best chances roughly mirror the NDP's, in Edmonton I'd say that the AP's best chances roughly mirror those of the UCP, so the more affluent suburban ridings of southwest and west Edmonton (as well as perhaps satellite cities like St. Albert). I would also say that the historic Liberal voting trend in Lethbridge-East, as well as 2015 over performances by the ALP in Red Deer-North and the AP in Grande Prairie-Wapiti indicate the potential for stronger performances in the smaller cities.

If chosen as leader and elected in 2019, Schweitzer will roll the minimum wage back from $15/hr to $12.20/hr. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ucp-leadership-candidate-calls-for-big-minimum-wage-rollback-in-alberta)

Even if economically a smart idea (which depending on whom you ask different people will say different things) I cannot see that helping the UCP.  If they promised to freeze it at $15/hour and consult with the business community before allowing any more rises or check the results in other jurisdictions that would be more sellable.  I personally do not support raising the minimum wage to $15/hour (I think $12 to $13/hour is reasonable) but I think cutting the minimum wage especially when you have 20% of Albertans making below $15/hour is going to be a very tough sell.  That being said his chances of winning are low so he is probably more throwing out ideas to get attention and depending on the public response Kenney or Jean (whichever of the two wins) can gage best on that whether it is a good or bad idea to proceed on.

Can already see the NDP ads now.

"Doug Schweitzer and the UCP want to take your hard earned money away."

"Doug Schweitzer and the UCP think you don't deserve a raise. And as a matter of fact, he wants to take money out of your pockets."

"Doug Schweitzer and the UCP think you don't deserve the money you already make, and h wants to reduce your wages even more."

It's all moot, because Doug Schweitzer is not going to win.

Good point, Kenney said he opposes the increases in minimum wage, but will not roll it back if he wins.  I suspect Brian Jean the only one who might be able to beat Kenney will probably say a similar thing.  While Jason Kenney is the favoured to win the UCP leadership race, I believe Brian Jean would perform better in a general election than Kenney.  Kenney does well in Calgary, while Rural Alberta will vote massively UCP no matter what, in Edmonton Jean is within striking distance of the NDP while Kenney is well back.  Otherwise with Kenney I think the NDP would sweep Edmonton whereas Jean would probably at least win a few seats in the city.

Three more endorsements from the UCP Caucus came out today. MLAs Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre) and Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays) have endorsed Jason Kenney, while MLA Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti) has endorsed Doug Schweitzer.

Nixon has stepped down as caucus Whip in order to make this endorsement, and Deputy Leader Mike Ellis will be taking over the Whip's duties for now (which theoretically are minimal, since the Legislature doesn't even sit until after the leadership election). Nixon also stated that it is likely that him and McIver will be stepping down as caucus representatives on the party's Interim Joint Board.

Of note, Drysdale was the only sitting PC MLA to endorse Richard Starke over Jason Kenney in the recent PC leadership election.

Do you think the fact the polls show Jean would fare better against Notley and has a more positive approval rating than Kenney will have any impact.  It seems Kenney is the favourite within the party, but they would do better in a general election with Jean than Kenney.

I doubt it. I've seen spin on those polls from the Kenney camp that it's a bad thing that Jean does better amongst the general public because he would supposedly attract some (small-l) liberal support, and the Kenney supporters would rather back a "true" conservative.

Jean's getting character-assassinated by both the Kenney and Callaway camps, and I think Kenney's brought in too many people who are loyal to him personally for Jean to pull off a victory.

But don't they realize even in Alberta going too far to the right is a way to lose what should be an easily winneable election.  Alberta is Canada's most conservative province but is a slightly right of centre, not hard right one.  More than half the population are in the two largest cities and you don't win in either by tacking too much to the right.  Now to be fair since Kenney is from Calgary, I don't think it will make too much difference in Calgary on whom they choose, it will more be Edmonton and some of the smaller urban centres elsewhere as well as suburbs in the Capital region where it matters.  Both will face an uphill battle in Edmonton but I think with Jean they could win a few seats there while Kenney would likely ensure another shutout.

The UCP held their first leadership debate last night. If anyone's interested in watching it, the video feed is available on the UCP Facebook page.

Also: UCP MLA Rick Fraser (Calgary-South East), formerly a PC, is leaving the UCP caucus to sit as an independent. (https://twitter.com/RickFraserYYC/status/910888661566111744)

Jason Kenney is the best choice for leader of UCP in Alberta. A solid social conservative and economic conservative. His experience in Ottawa serving every top cabinet job and he appeals to immigrant voters.
Kenney for Premier

I've been neglecting to update this over the last month or so, but today is the big day, so I figured I'd post a quick re-cap of the race:

UCP members have been able to vote since Thursday morning, and polls are open for about 3.5 more hours (until 5:00pm MDT). Around 60,000 of the UCP's approximately 110,000 members registered to vote, and an update from the UCP last night said that around 80% of registered members had voted by that point.

I don't believe that this was previously mentioned, but little known leadership candidate and former WRP President Jeff Callaway dropped out of the race a number of weeks ago to back Jason Kenney. This was a surprise to almost no one, as it had always seemed that Callaway's sole purpose in the race was to attack Brian Jean from the former WRP part of the UCP.

Members are voting with preferential ballots between the three remaining leadership candidates: Brian Jean, Jason Kenney, and Doug Schweitzer.

To be quite frank, nothing super serious has happened on the policy end of things. Fiscally/economically-speaking, all three favour more-or-less the same outcomes, although their personal blueprints for getting there may have slight variations. The candidates are most differentiated by their stances, both real and publicly-perceived, on social issues, with Kenney being the most conservative, Schweitzer being the most progressive (though he insists on calling himself a "social moderate"), and Jean taking a vaguely libertarian stance.

It is widely thought that Kenney has the race sewn up. If this proves to be true, it would likely prove to be the best outcome for parties opposing the UCP, as Kenney is a much more publicly-polarizing figure than Jean or Schweitzer.

In terms of caucus endorsements, Jean and Kenney are tied at 11 MLAs each. Schweitzer has one MLA endorsement, while three MLAs have remained "neutral" due to holding caucus leadership positions (I put neutral in quotation marks because at least two of the three are thought to be quietly backing Kenney). For those interested, caucus endorsements break down as follows:

Jean:

• Leela Aheer (Chestermere-Rocky View)
• Wayne Anderson (Highwood)
• Dave Hanson (Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills)
• Todd Loewen (Grande Prairie-Smoky)
• Don MacIntyre (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
• Ron Orr (Lacombe-Ponoka)
• Angela Pitt (Airdrie)
• Dave Schneider (Little Bow)
• Pat Stier (Livingstone-Macleod)
• Glenn van Dijken (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock)
• Tany Yao (Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo)

Kenney:

• Drew Barnes (Cypress-Medicine Hat)
• Scott Cyr (Bonnyville-Cold Lake)
• Prab Gill (Calgary-Greenway)
• Grant Hunter (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
• Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays)
• Jason Nixon (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)
• Prasad Panda (Calgary-Foothills)
• Dave Rodney (Calgary-Lougheed)
• Mark Smith (Drayton Valley-Devon)
• Rick Strankman (Drumheller-Stettler)
• Wes Taylor (Battle River-Wainwright)

Schweitzer:

• Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti)

Neutral:

• Nathan Cooper (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills ; Interim Leader)
• Mike Ellis (Calgary-West ; Deputy Leader)
• Richard Gotfried (Calgary-Fish Creek ; House Leader)

The federal Conservative caucus has also largely made their voices heard in the race with endorsements. Of the 29 Conservative MPs, 24 have made endorsements, and 23 of those endorsements have gone to Kenney. Only Blaine Calkins (Red Deer--Lacombe) has backed Jean. The only MPs who have not made endorsements are: Zaid Aboultaif (Edmonton Manning), Stephanie Kusie (Calgary Midnapore), Mike Lake (Edmonton--Wetaskiwin), Len Webber (Calgary Confederation), and David Yurdiga (Fort McMurray--Cold Lake).


Finally, I'll note that results will be announced shortly after the polls close at 5:00pm. I imagine the UCP will be live-streaming on Facebook.

My prediction is Kenney wins it, but I think Jean would be a better choice in terms of electability.

Kenney has won 61-31.

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

Very good news for the NDP in the 2023 election.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

The implication being: he could be another Jim Prentice?

Possibly.

Being leader during an election campaign requires a unique skill set. You pick people you think will succeed, but sometimes their abilities don't quite transfer over.

Definitely possible although the anger at the NDP is pretty strong so they will have to improve considerably in popularity to have a shot.  Many who voted NDP last time did so as a protest vote not realizing they might actually win, in many ways similar to the NDP win in 1990 in Ontario.  That being said Kenney's overconfidence and the fact he is more right wing than past PC leaders were could make it more competitive than some might imagine.

The difference being the NDP government in Alberta is 1000x more competent than the one we had in Ontario. Albertans are spoiled rotten.

I think the rapid rise in the debt though is a big concern.  It was $19 billion when they came to office will be $70 billion by 2019 and will almost certainly go over $100 billion if re-elected so there are very legitimate concerns the NDP is not showing any kind of fiscal restraint.  Off course many may not like the slash and burn either and in some ways the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party are trying to offer a middle of the road plan to balance the budget without big spending cuts.  That being said Harper even in 2015 got 59.5% so the NDP will need to win over a sizeable number of those who voted Conservative federally to have a shot again.  That being said I think Kenney will do worse than that, I am guessing he will get in the low 50s while the NDP around 30% but wouldn't be surprised if things are even tighter. 

I've found in politics people generally tend to vote for parties that are philosophically similar to them and in Alberta unlike most provinces more people lean right than lean left thus the advantage to the UCP.  Yes that is changing as millennials in Alberta like elsewhere are more progressive than conservative, but with Boomers being about a 70/30 split in favour of conservatism that is too big a margin to overcome so I think once the boomers start to die off you will see progressive parties winning more often in Alberta not just provincially but also federal seats too.