Talk Elections

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Closest races: NH, MD, ME, FL, AK, VT
Dem. pickups: MI, ME, FL, NM, IL
Rep. pickups: AK

Post-2018 map of governorships:

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NH, AK, and FL could really go either way though.

Dems will win KS or WI

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup

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Tossups map: Dems +4 (NJ, NM, ME, IL)
No Tossups (KS, MI go GOP, CT, NV, FL, WI, NH, VA go Dem. ) for Dem +8

I think it's incredible that in the most Democratic state in the nation, in a Mid-Term that by all accounts will be heavily Democratic .... a Republican Governor is virtually assured of reelection

My prediction: FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, NH, NM and WI flips

D+8

I'm making one prediction. 

IL will be Tilt R once Pritzker wins the nom.

No, it won't, this race won't be a run away race, but even Pritzker can beat Rauner by 5, in a Trump down year.

2017:
New Jersey: Likely Democratic Pickup
Virginia: Lean Democratic Hold

2018:

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Maine will be Republican if Susan Collins runs. Nevada, Florida, Kansas, and Connecticut are a bit iffy in my mind.

Please let Rauner survive PLEASE!

He has announced his retirement already.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/dannel-malloy-connecticut-reelection-2018/index.html

I think he meant someone like Malloy

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With no toss-ups, Walker wins in AK, Democrats win KS, MI, NV, and NH, Republicans win CT, FL, and MD. D+7.

As of 8/8/17

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Note on IL:  I have 3 ratings for IL, the one in the picture is for Kennedy.

Pritzker:  Tilt R
Kennedy:  Tossup
ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT:  Lean D

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D+7

According to Trump all should be dark blue as his popularity is massive, he is the most yugely popular president ever.  The polls and news about his unpopularity are all fake.  And off course any state where the GOP doesn't win was because it was rigged or illegals voter en masse.

That being said in all seriousness generally sounds about right, my only question is with Wisconsin as I thought Scott Walker was not that popular, but is he term limited?  Kansas is another interesting one as although a staunchly GOP state, Sam Brownback has the lowest approval rating of any governor, but I don't believe he is running again.  Connecticut I thought was vulnerable although maybe the anti-Trump sentiment will save the Democrats there.  Nevada I also thought was fairly solid GOP in the next state election as well.

No tossup map, lighter shades = pickups:

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2017: D+1 (NJ)
2018: D+6 (NM, IL, ME, MI, FL, NV)

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Tossups:
VA, NM, NH, and MI lean D
FL and NV lean R
AK leans I

I would like to mention that on the Wikipedia page for the New Mexico gubernatorial race, it mentions Gary Johnson as a potential Libertarian candidate. I don't think my prediction would change if he ran, but there's a small chance he could change things.

Ok, why is IL Lean R?  Even I don't have IL as Lean R and i'm 100% in for Rauner.

Walker's approval rating have recovered a bit but hes definitely not safe so thats why I have it only has likely republican

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Prediction: Ds pick up FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and WI. D+12 (yes, I am going out on a limb and looking like a hack). Walker runs for reelection as an Indy and wins.

Bill or Scott Walker?

Bill. I should have clarified that.

In hindsight, I would've put it as a tossup, but Kennedy doesn't instill much confidence within the Democratic party, and there aren't many other Democratic candidates at the moment, which is why I gave it the slight R tilt.

What about Pritzker?

Maybe if the ticket was flipped and Stratton was running.

Even Collins running is a very big if.

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Safe R: AL, AR, ID, NE, SC, SD, TX, WY
Likely R: AZ, GA, MD, MA, OK, TN, VT
Lean R: IA, KS, NH, OH, WI
Toss-Up: AK (I Hold), CO (D Hold), CT (R pick-up), FL (R hold), IL (D pick-up), ME (D pick-up), MI (D pick-up), NV (D pick-up)
Lean D: NM (D pick-up), PA, RI, VA, MN
Likely D: OR
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, NJ (D pick-up)

Net change of D+5 (or D+4 for 2018 alone)

Of course, much will depend on candidates, but these are my early ratings:

2017
New Jersey: Strong D
Virginia: Toss-up

2018
Safe D
Hawaii
Rhode Island

Strong D
New York
Oregon

Lean D
California
Minnesota
New Mexico

Toss-up
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean R
Arizona
Florida
Iowa
Kansas
Nevada
Ohio

Strong R
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Maryland
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas

Safe R
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Vermont

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Of the 2017 ones, I think New Jersey looks highly likely to be a Democrat pick-up.  Virginia leans Democrat but a GOP pick up is possible although Democrats have the edge there.

I have the map in my signature

SD gubernatorial as "likely R" but Kansas as "safe R" ???

The Kansas Republican Party is distancing itself from Brownback, and Brownback is term limited, so Democrats are not going to benefit from his unpopularity.  Additionally, there have been cases not too long ago where Democrats were able to win elections in South Dakota in the correct circumstances, whereas they never really manage to win in Kansas.

For 2017, still want to wait until we get closer for 2018 although I think with the Democrats at record lows and GOP controlling all branches you will see a net gain for Democrats, but probably still have more GOP governors and controlled state legislatures, just less so than now.  This year

New Jersey - Solid Democrat - Easy pick-up
Virginia - Slight lean Democrat but GOP could pick this up

Otherwise best case scenario for Democrats is hold Virginia and pick up New Jersey so that means control of 16 governor mansions.  Best for GOP is lose New Jersey but pick up Virginia thus still control of 15 governor mansions.

Alabama: Likely R
Alaska: Tossup*
Arizona: Tilt R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Lean D
Florida: Tossup
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Tossup
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Lean R
Maine: Tossup
Maryland: Tossup
Massachusetts: Likely R
Michigan: Tossup
Minnesota: Lean D
Nebraska: Lean R*
Nevada: Tossup
New Hampshire: Lean R
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
Ohio: Tossup
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Lean D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Likely R
Texas: Safe R
Vermont: Likely R
Virginia: Tossup
Wisconsin: Lean R
Wyoming: Safe R

*–I'm waiting to see what the Democrats do regarding Walker's and Krist's independent bids. If they run a candidate, it goes to Lean R in Alaska and Safe R in Nebraska.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&fips=20&f=0&off=5&elect=0

I changed my Virginia confidence from likely to leaning.  I still think Northam will win, however.

Later this week, I will add 2019 predictions.

Alabama:  Ivey 59 - Mattox 38
Alaska:  Miller 46 - Walker 44 (*)
Arizona:  Ducey 53 - Farley 43
Arkansas:  Hutchison 63 - Griffen 36
California:  Newsom 63 - Villaraigosa 37
Colorado:  Polis 49 - Tancredo 45
Connecticut:  Boughton 50 - Mattei 48 (^)
Florida:  Putnam 49 - Morgan 47
Georgia:  Kemp 55 - Abrams 43
Hawaii:  Hanabusa 68 - Tupola 30
Idaho:  Little 61 - Balukoff 35
Illinois:  Kennedy 56 - Rauner 43 (*)
Iowa:  Reynolds 55 - McGuire 44
Kansas:  Kobach 51 - Svaty 47
Maine:  Hayes 52 - Mayhew 45 (^)
Maryland:  Hogan 51 - Jealous 45
Massachusetts:  Baker 56 - Warren 43
Michigan:  Schutte 49 - Whitmer 48
Minnesota:  Walz 50 - Johnson 47
Nebraska:  Ricketts 54 - Krist 44
Nevada: Laxalt 50 - Sisolak 48
New Hampshire:  Sununu 51 - Marchand 47
New Mexico:  Grisham 53 - Pearce 45 (^)
New York:  Cuomo 61 - 37 Cahill
Ohio:  DeWine 52 - Sutton 45
Oklahoma:  Lamb 53 - Edmondson 45
Oregon:  Brown 54 - Buehler 44
Pennsylvania:  Wolf 51 - Wagner 47
Rhode Island:  Raimondo 55 - Morgan 44
South Carolina:  McMaster 51 - Smith 47
South Dakota:  Jackley 60 - Sutton 37
Tennessee:  Black 57 - Dean 41
Texas:  Abbot 62 - Wakley 35
Vermont:  Scott 50 - Minter 45
Wisonsin:  Walker 49 - Wachs 47
Wyoming:  Murray 66 - Thorne 33

^ - Pickup, open seat
* - Pickup, incumbent defeated

Dems gain IL, ME and NM and GOP gains AK and CT for an overall D+2 change.  Pretty abysmal performance for the Dems.

Hayes is an independent.

Democratic gains
Illinois
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Georgia
Florida
Kansas
New Mexico
Maine

Republican gains
Connecticut

Kansas and especially Georgia are big reaches, but otherwise this is about what I'd expect.

Why is Oklahoma tilt/lean R?

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Georgia would be an upset but Kansas not really. The Kanss GOP is in the toilet because of Brownback. Look at KS-02, it was partly Trump but Brownback also dragged down Estes. It wasn't expected to be close but it was. So I think the Dems can do well in Kansas at the state level in 2018.

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D+ FL, IL, ME, MI, NV, NM

why are Michigan and Maine toss up in the prediction confidence median.  Both are clearly going to flip to the Democrats.

lol.  Illinois is much more winnable for the GOP than Michigan or Maine in the 2018 Gubernatorial elections.  Honestly, it is also more winnable for the GOP than Wisconsin, Maryland, and Nevada as well.

I am going to look forward to being able to say "told you so" When Dem win big in Michigan and Maine, while only winning narrowly or even possibly losing in Illinois.

Here's where we are in my Predictions right now. Just as with my Senate Predictions, not all the Leans Lean to the same degree, largely because you cannot differentiate between Lean and Likely on these maps. Read my Google Doc for full ratings and rationales.

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I agree a Republican won't win, but keep in mind Maine has a strong independent streak and Terry Hayes could win.

Or give the election to the Republican

I believe Democrats will pickup New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine. I think there is a good chance of Democrats picking up both Florida and Kansas as well. I think Republicans could pickup Connecticut. There are opportunities for Democrats to win in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ohio, Maryland, and New Hampshire.

Hi

you should change your predictions, and I am telling you this since I think you are misunderstanding something.

See my comment on your senate prediction for reference of what you should fix.

Maine is the very definition of a tossup race. Wide open (not to mention massive) fields on both sides with no clear frontrunners, and very strong independent candidates. I could see this race going any way right now - if any state were to go against the national tide, it would be Maine.

Michigan seems to be the purest of tossups as well from the little polling we have. Whitmer is not doing as strongly as expected, while Schuette is doing quite well considering the national environment.

FTR I have both states flipping D in the end, but it doesn't make sense to call either race anything but a tossup.

I see that in my home state of CT, Luke Bronin (the Democratic mayor of Hartford, CT) has pulled out of the race.  This is a good thing, IMHO....one less of what I call "Malloy's Boys" in this race. 

In other news, the Democratic front-runner seems to be Mayor Joe Ganim of Bridgeport, who is....


wait for it....


A CONVICTED FELON!! (He did some time in the "big house" for fraud/bribery a number of years ago....how he got elected mayor again, I have no idea).  Sheesh.  :-O

Here is more hackisness on my part.

Ratings: Safe (90%), Very Likely (70%), Likely (50%), Lean (30%), Tossup (Green), Independents are in Yellow in case it becomes relevant in the future.

Seat Changes under current predictions:
AK: I to R
IL: R to D
MI: R to D
NM: R to D
WI: R to D

Once again, I'll justify some of the more controversial ones.

AK:Begich entering the race is most likely to hurt Walker more than anything. There hasn't been a whole lot of three way polling for this race, but Walker and Begich are likely going to pull from the same base of voters. This race is going to be interesting to watch, but right now the Republicans have an edge, no matter how slight.

CT:Yes Malloy is very unpopular right now, I'm aware. Ned Lamont is not Malloy, and he isn't a terrible candidate either despite his lengthy losing record. Connecticut is still a blue state in a Democratic friendly environment. This is certainly one of the GOP's best chances to flip a Dem Held seat, but I would have to contend that Lamont, if he clears the primary, will enter the general the slight favorite.

NV:Now I know what you are gonna say, "Blue state in a dem friendly year." But to that I say, no. Yes I just used this argument for CT, but NV is less blue than CT is without a doubt. And Laxalt starts off as the better known and better funded candidate in this race. While I have no doubt that this race will be competitive and will probably shift towards Sisolak, if the election where to happen tomorrow I Laxalt will be the favorite.

OH:I love Codray as much as the next partisan hack, but at this exact moment, its not clear to me that he is a sure thing, or even that he is favored. The two of them are both moderately well known in state politics. Codray has the national environment going for him, as well as the fact that he seems to be a unifying candidate, and some decent fundraising, and the fact that he's sharing the Ballot with Sherrod Brown (who seems to be heading towards a comfortable re-election). However, I still can't help but be cautious about this race. Ohio was more Republican than Georgia was in 2016, and almost as Republican as Iowa and Texas. Add this to the fact that polling doesn't seem to be really reliable in this race. They are all within the margin of error or come from a shady source etc. In short, its deff not unwinnable for DeWine, even if all conventional wisdom says he should be the underdog.

WI: I don't seem the hype around any of the current candidates. The Dem primary is a mess, although led by Evers at the moment. Recent Special elections and the Judicial Election suggest that the Democrats are at an advantage in WI, but Walker is likely to bring in lots of money from the national GOP, and that will likely keep him in the race. To keep it short (and because I have one more state to write about with only 5 minutes left on break), Walker is the underdog in his re-election, but is not out of the race yet.

KS:What in the world is happening here? The Republican primary is contentious, the Democratic Primary is contentious, there is a strong third party candidate in the race, One candidate is running with his wife as his running mate, there are a bunch of highschoolers and a New Yorker running, and another New Yorker and a literal Dog filed for this election.  Obviously, the two big candidates on the R side is incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach, but there are also a bunch of other candidates that I won't go into detail about because I doubt they will win, but mentioning their existence because upsets happen. On the Democratic side, the three big candidates are Laura Kelly, a State Senator, Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita, and Josh Svaty, former State Rep. and Former State Agricultural Secretary. And then there is Greg Orman, running third party and making things complicated. Things can really go any way here, while this is going to be a fun election to watch, I have no doubt that this race will ruin many people's predictions, myself included.

Changing some ratings. Here is a summary of the changes:

Races moving Towards the Republicans:
Kansas: Tossup -->Lean R
New Hampshire: Lean R --> Likely R
Vermont: Likely R --> Very Likely R
Oregon: Safe D --> Very Likely D

Races moving Towards the Democrats:
Arizona: Likely R --> Lean R
Iowa: Lean R --> Tossup
Colorado: Lean D --> Likely D
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Georgia: Likely R --> Tossup

Seats that Flip Under Current Predictions:
Seat Changes under current predictions:
AK: I to R
IL: R to D
MI: R to D
NM: R to D
WI: R to D

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Justifying the changes, I'll start with the races that move towards the Republicans

KS: It remains to be seen where most of Orman's votes will come from. He could play the spoiler for either side. In the absence of more polling, I think that it is safest to assume that this Republican State will favor Republicans to some degree.

VT and NH: In VT, Scott's challengers are very weak overall. While one of them could make the magic happen and win, I see it as increasingly unlikely as the campaign progresses. Similar situation in New Hampshire, only I think Kelly is a fairly strong candidate if she can bolster her name recognition. Sununu is also more conservative than Baker or Scott when comparing these races.

OR: There really isn't much that changed in this race, this is more of a correction than a true ratings change. Republicans have enough of a strength in Eastern Oregon that I think considering this race "safe" for the Democrats is a bit generous to them.

Races that Moved Towards the Democrats:
AZ, CO, and IA: Similar to Oregon, these is more of a correction than an actual rating change. I underestimated or overestimated one candidate or another. Basically, I learned more about these races, even if things really didn't change.

IL: Dems seem to be rallying around Prtizker more than I initially thought. Add to this Rauner's direct connection to the family separation policy, and I think its enough to move this race more into the Democratic Column.

GA: This is a combination of things. First, a correction. "Likely R" might have been an overgenerous rating to the Republicans, and I have previously underestimated Abrams as a candidate. Combine this with the fact that I think Kemp is the weaker candidate to have won the Republican runoff, and I think moving this race to tossup is reasonable. I will note that my exact opinion on this race will probably change week to week, so Tossup is probably the safest bet.

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Some quick math:
The Democrats winning every seat they are favored in, plus all the tossups, would give them 25 Governorships, or D+9. Even winning just the races they are favored in would result in 20 Democratic Governors, or D+4.
Using a very basic math, and 10 general scenarios, my predictions have a reasonable range for the Democrats of 21 to 30 Governor seats in 2019. I can go more into the methodology of this if people really want to know.

OK, SD, GA, KS and AK after all, may go Democratic along with WI, OH, MI, IL and PA and some states like CT, RI, ME, MD or OR may go GOP. It's weird how normal trends, with a "weaken Trump" aren't gonna go the GOP's way.

I know what you are saying "What in the world is going on in KS?"

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6 pick-ups for Dem : NM, IL, MI, OH, ME and (recently) Alaska

I'm not sure for OH, but the trend is clear. Govs for DP, Senate for RP, house...


(why is there no polls for state legislatures ? That's very interesting too.)

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Result; D 26(+10), R 24(-9)

NH leans Democratic

Final Prediction

AK: 50-43 Dunleavy
CT: 52-46 Lamont
FL: 52-47 Gillum
GA: 49-48 Kemp on election day, 52-48 Kemp runoff.
IL: 54-39 Pritzker
IA: 49-48 Hubbell
KS: 46-45 Kobach
ME: 51-45 Mills
MI: 53-45 Whitmer
MN: 53-44 Walz
NV: 49-45 Sisolak
NM: 55-45 Grisham
OH: 49-48 Cordray
OK: 52-45 Stitt
OR: 51-46 Brown
SD: 52-47 Noem
WI: 51-47 Evers

Everything else is safe.

D+9, R-8. Republicans could be headed for a Midwest wipeout.

With Tossup, Tilt, Lean, Likely, and Safe: (https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1059710432187957249)
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D+8 [FL, IA, IL, ME, MI, NM, NV, WI]

Projections of who'll win: (https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1059710434545156096)
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D+10 [D+11: FL, GA, IA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NM, NV, OH, WI; R+1: AK]

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AK: D+1
CT: D+3
FL: D+5
GA: Even, but probably no runoff
IL: Even
IA: D+4
KS: R+6
ME: R+2
MI: R+1
MN: R+3
NV: Even
NM: R+4
OH: D+5
OK: D+5
OR: Even
SD: R+2
WI: D+3

Not bad, except FL, OH, IA, and KS. Looks like Orman supporters did break for Kelly.

Scores have now been posted. jaichind (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=2008) with top score of 33 state wins and 31 state percentages.  Top state wins, however, goes to Bagel23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=18047) but state percentages in this prediction are not selected properly.

Enjoy,
Dave

Iowa polls were wrong