Talk Elections

Conn. city:    9 Bristol
municipality: 14 Bristol

Mass. city: 29   Westfield
municipality: 33 Westfield        

R.I. city: all RI cities voted for HRC  
municipality: 7 Coventry
        
N.H.   city: 5 Rochester
municipality: 4 Derry
        
ME:  5 Auburn

VT   city: 4 Barre
municipality: 11 Barre

N.Y. city: 15   Rome   Oneida
municipality: Brookhaven,   Suffolk County
                    
Penn. city: 10   Altoona   Blair
township: Millcreek twp, Erie County
                    
NJ city: 29 Ocean City   Cape May
municipality: 7   Lakewood twp   Ocean
                              
*IL city: 22   Crystal Lake   McHenry
municipality: 21    Orland Park village (Cook, Will)
township: Orland twp, Cook County

*IL Election results are mainly done by township, and cities don't always correspond. I approximated city results by the whole townships they were in, even if the city does not necessarily make up each whole township.
        
Mich.: 4   Sterling Heights   Macomb
                    
Wisc.: 7   Waukesha   Waukesha County
                    
Minn.: 10   St. Cloud   Stearns

Va.: 1 Virginia Beach

Calif.: 9   Bakersfield   Kern

Thank you.  Orland Park is likely the largest municipality in IL to vote Trump.  Its much larger than Crystal Lake.  In 2012, I would guess Romney won Naperville when you take into account the Will County portion.  Bloomington, Springfield, Arlington Heights and Palatine (certainly) are also 2012 possibilities.

http://www.togetherweteach.com/TWTIC/uscityinfo/13il/ilpopr/13ilpr.htm

I think townships in Illinois are not classified as municipalities, though cities/states/villages are. It is possible that Orland Park village voted for Trump, as I said:


unless you, as a Illinoisan can be more precise.

Florida - possibly Jacksonville (1):


If not Jax, then probably Hialeah (6).


Oklahoma - likely Oklahoma City (1)

Oregon - probably Medford ( 8 ), assuming this poster checked the 7 largest cities in Oregon:


Wyoming - Cheyenne (1) - Only 1 precinct in Cheyenne's county voted for HRC.

Mississippi - possibly Gulfport (2)

36% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Miss. standards.

if not, then Southaven (3)

Alabama - possibly Huntsville (4)

31% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Ala. standards.

if not, then possibly Tuscaloosa (5) ironically or certainly Hoover (6)

Great find. That also confirms Arizona - Mesa (3).

Also...
Colorado Springs, CO (2) is probable or at least needs to be looked at.

Anchorage, AK (1) is a good chance as it contains 50% of Alaska's pop. (state went 51-37) and rural AK has a good amount of Dems, esp. Alaska natives.

Yeah of little faith young Jedi.... ;)

Oregon Top Ten Cities 2016----

1.) Portland- (78-13 D)      +65 % D Margin

2.) Eugene-  (66-23 D)      +43% D Margin

3.) Salem-   (50-39 D)       +11% D Margin

4.) Gresham- (49-39 D)     +10% D Margin

5.) Hillsboro- (55-32 D)     +23% D Margin

6.) Beaverton- (63-25 D)   +38% D Margin

7.) Bend- (52-36 D)          +16% D Margin

8.) Medford- (39-51 R)      +12% R Margin

9.) Springfield-  (47-40 D)-    +7% D Margin

10.) Corvallis- Shoot--- can't believe I dropped the numbers on this City, but next to Portland it is 2nd on the rank of Oregon cities in the '16 Dem- Rep vote margins (Thinking it was something like 67-19 D in '16).

To confirm Medford was the only Top Ten City to Oregon to vote for DJT where he was able to bag an amazing 51% of the City Vote....  ;)

Huntsville would be really close. Obama carried it by 1 in 2008 with the county as a whole going to McCain by 15. In 2016, Trump won the county by 16. Based on the broader trends in last year's election, it wouldn't surprise me if unincorporated Madison County swung to Clinton while Huntsville proper swung to Trump (compared to 2008). The real question is by how much?

Unfortunately, there is no real way to know given the fact that Madison County has since consolidated precincts with no regard for municipal boundaries (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AL/Madison/64624/Web02/#/cid/0020).

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

The biggest city in Washington to vote for trump is Yakima voted for him 47-43.

Kansas: most likely Wichita (1)
What's fascinating is how Wichita is a microcosm. Suburban areas within the city swung heavily to Hillary while the south side, working class and with a good portion of manufacturing workers, swung hard to Trump. Combine that with lower Dem turnout in Black and Hispanic areas. Vote totals in some Hispanic precincts rose as they swung away from Dems. Black turnout collapsed though.

Maine:

#5 Auburn--- Pop 23.0k- MHI $ 45.4k-

91.1% White, 16% (65+ yrs), 39.7% French/French-Canadian Ancestry, 24% Bachelors or Higher

45.6% D- 45.9% R     ( +0.3% R)

Here are a few more pieces of low hanging fruit from New England...

New Hampshire:

#5: Rochester- Pop 29.8k- MHI $ 49.0k

94.2% White, 16% 65+ Yrs, 27% French/French-Canadian Ancestry, 16.4% Mfg Sector, 20% Bachelors or Higher Degree

2016: 41.3% D- 51.3% R    (+10.0% R)    2012: (51.5 D- 46.8 R)      +14.7% R Swing

Vermont:

#5: Barre-  Pop 9.0k- MHI $ 39.5k

95.1% White, 17% 65+ Yrs, 32% French/French-Canadian Ancestry, 21% Bachelor Degree or Higher

2016: (42.2 D- 44.7 R)   + 2.5% R     2012: (54.2 D- 44.2 R)     +12.5% R Swing

Massachusetts:

#32: Westfield- Pop 41.2k- MHI $ 59.6k

86.6% White, 7.6% Latino, 13% 65+, 22.9% Irish/ 13.1% Italian Ancestry, 14.2% Mfg, 30% Bachelors or Higher

2016: (43.4 D- 47.6 R)  + 4.2% R     2012: (51.9 D- 46.0 R)      +10.1% R Swing

Rhode Island:

Coventry Town- Pop 33.7k- MHI $ 52.0k

97.6% White; 13% 65+ Yrs;

2016: (40.2 D- 52.5 R)    +12.3% R;   2012- (55.3 D- 42.2 R)  +13.1% D     +25.4% R Swing

Connecticut:

#11: Bristol-  Pop 60.5k- MHI $ 57.6k

82.6% White, 10.2% Latino, 3.2% Black; 16% 65+ Yrs, 21.3% Italian/ 24% French & French-Canadian/ 17% Irish Ancestry; 15.5% Mfg, 23% Bachelors or Higher

2016: (47.3 D- 48.2 R)   +0.9% R;  2012: (57.9 D- 41.0 R)  + 16.9% D    +17.8% R Swing

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

Interesting summary....

Wichita confirmed for Kansas.

I ran the '16 precinct file for Sedgwick County and it looks like Wichita accounted for 72% of the County vote and went (40.7 D- 49.9 R)      +9.2% R

I have the '12 results by precinct for Kansas, but because of the size of the file it will be a bit of a pain to convert from a text based file format to an Excel spreadsheet to look at the '12 numbers for Wichita and '12 > '16 Presidential Swing. If you're really interested I wouldn't mind tackling that with a little bit of free time. :)

Wow about Huntsville. Next would not be Tuscaloosa after all (actually 41% black), so would be Hoover if not Huntsville.

Yup... ran the 2016 precinct numbers for Springfield, took me almost 45 minutes trying to convert a text based file format into Excel, so don't plan on repeating that right now for '12 results....

Springfield, MO

2016: (36.1 D- 57.1 R)      +21.0% R

***NOTE: This does not include absentee results ***

Since Greene County lumps them into a giant bucket for the whole county, but still absentees accounted for 12.0% of the County Vote (37.2 D- 58.6 R). Springfield accounted for about 63% of the Non-Absentee County vote. Areas outside of Springfield City limits went (28-66 R).... Needless to say absentees voted both more Democratic than both the City of Springfield and County at large, and frustratingly enough we can't break down the numbers by precinct/municipality, so Springfield was likely more like a 38/39 D vs 54-55 R).

Also Greene County consolidates it's WI votes which were 576 total, not broken down by precinct, so there will be some minor shifts of fractions of % away from all candidates on the ballot to reflect the McMullen vote.

Edit: Here's an interesting article from the newspaper in Springfield RE '16 GE PRES results

http://www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/19/four-maps-explain-how-greene-county-missouri-voted-president-trump-clinton/93644010/

So unless I am mistaken, it looks like the research project shows the following:

Red: Confirmed
Pink: Likely but not confirmed

Leaving Texas out of the map for the moment, since we haven't seen any real numbers or anyone that has pulled the % yet from the State.

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There's virtually no chance that Fargo ND, Sioux Falls SD, or Billings MT voted for Hillary.  Likewise, North and South Dakota should be colored pink as well.  

By the way, Cynic has election data that shows Anchorage AK went to Trump by high single digits.  


Btw, I did some work on Dave's redistricting app a few years ago, and Obama lost Billings MT by 4%-6% back in '08, even though he only lost the state by 3%.

West Virginia should be Charleston. There just aren't that many Hillary precincts in that entire state

Ohio - Parma (7)  49.6%-45.7% Trump

Ohio has a spreadsheet on-line that can be broken down by city.

Not to reignite the whole "West Virginia Atlas Wars" that go back to the '08 Democratic Primary, and I believe even some strong words going back to '04 regarding the State, I'm not completely sold on Charleston being a confirmed Trump win...

So basically Charleston accounts for roughly 27% of the Kanawha County votes....

It might seem counter-intuitive that it would even be a question if Trump won Charleston, when he won the County by overall by slightly over 20%....

I pulled the '16 precinct numbers for the County, and what really stood out was the insane polarized numbers in a County that Trump won by 20%.

We see HRC winning a significant number of extremely large precincts by 80-20 or 65-30, and Trump winning a significant % of precincts with 70% of the vote.

Something tells me the HRC precincts were most likely concentrated within Charleston and not in rural surrounding areas....

Now, I love all of the great precinct mapping that RI has done for all 50 States in the '16 GE, but unfortunately it isn't designed to subtotal results by municipality, which is why I prefer "confirmed official totals" for this project.

Still, if you look at the Giant Red spot in the SW corner of the map, it appears to overlap fairly closely to the City limits of Charleston....

I would suggest clicking on the WV map, opening it up in a new window and zooming in to the highest resolution possible, and honestly I would be surprised if HRC lost Charleston in '16.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252386.msg5458089#msg5458089

Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

Haven't run the numbers yet... been about two years since "I waltzed across Texas", but fortunately Texas (Believe it or not) actually has some pretty accessible precinct level data and mapping for the largest counties in the Great State....

I found all sorts of precinct results from Texas for a ton of counties, as part of a completely separate topic on another thread that I could drill down to City level results, with a little bit of Lone Star Beer and some True Grit....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5564689#msg5564689

So we know that precinct level results are available for Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Collin County (Plano), and also for Nueces County (Corpus Christi)....

So, as the old saying goes "everything is bigger in Texas", and that naturally includes precinct level data....

Honestly, I would love to take a look at this in greater detail, but unfortunately will likely need to wait until this weekend, since I need to get up early over the next few days to work on the Assembly Line.

Now, here are potentially a few musical soundtracks for anyone interested in some background songs about Texas while they research this project....

I would strongly suggest that if you like the artist on any links below that you purchase their CDs or songs in whatever musical format of your preference, as I have over the years, since being a musician involves a ton of blood, sweat and tears, and these are all working artists that allow some of their songs to be shared on Youtube, in the hopes that some of y'all might like the sound and pay the artist for their effort. ;)

Gary Nunn: "What I Like about Texas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGukLuXzH1E

George Strait: "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jta1Gz9UnfA

Pat Green: "Songs About Texas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z242kzdYs3A

Willie Nelson & Merle Haggard: "Ballad of Poncho and Lefty"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvdmxszsDM8

Johnny Rodriguez: "Corpus Christi Bay"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdivjLBxye8

Ok--- this is more the "Old Skool" Anglo County songs, but with the Tex-Mex overlap, while meanwhile H-Town (Houston) has become a National Hip-Hop Center that has arguably surpassed Atlanta or New Orleans as the Capitol of Southern Hip-Hop.

I can pull some artists up if anyone is interested, but Texas is simply so Big with a ton of large Metro areas, so more familiar with Houston than Dallas/Fort Worth, let alone San Antonio or Austin Hip-Hop....

Set up a playlist, roll some numbers, be prepared to spend at least 3-4 hours at a minimum on the project, but yeah start with #5 Forth Worth, #7 Arlington, # 8 Corpus, #9 Plano....

Tim Turner might have just hit the nail on the head of the heartbeat of Trump supporters in TX, but even Plano might be an iffy bet for the top Trump town in Tejas...

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.

In Tennessee, I would check:

3) Knoxville
4) Chattanooga
5) Clarksville
6) Murfreesboro

I can't quite tell for Knoxville and Chattanooga, but looking over the precinct results for Montgomery County, it looks highly likely that Trump won Clarksville.  Only one precinct actually has an address that isn't Clarksville, so Trump easily won the Clarksville addresses (is it possible that those could be different from the city limits, though)?  He also won the "Clarksville" precinct roughly 2:1, but that seems to just be referring to Clarksville High School.

If he somehow won none of those, we can be certain that he won #7 (Franklin) because he won every precinct in Williamson County.

Excellent work and jives with RI's precinct map and raw county level precinct returns that I pulled.... :)

Looks like Clinton won Charleston by roughly 55-45 of the two Party Vote Share... Curious about 3rd Party votes in the City....

Johnson 765, Stein 282, Castle 58 - if my calculations are correct.

#2 nation wide might be VA Beach?

Of course, VA Beach is a "city" only in the technical sense.  It's a little misleading, because like Jacksonville, it's just a county-sized suburb (in this case, it was formerly Princess Anne County before the consolidation).  The entire "city" is either Norfolk suburbs or the oceanfront resort area.

No--- It looks like Huntington went Trump in '16 by a plurality.

Unfortunately there is not a precinct map available for the County, and it doesn't appear that own our own GiS precinct mapping expert RI was able to break this County down to precinct level mapping results.

Still, I ran the '16 GE Pres precinct numbers for Cabell County, and based upon precinct location it appears that precincts #10-40 are located within the City limits....

If we use those numbers:

Clinton: 7,346 (43.9%)- Trump (48.1%)- Johnson (4.1%)- Write-Ins/Bernie (1.7%), Mountain Party (!!!) 1.6%, Constitutionalists--- remainder.   Trump +4.2%.

Unless anyone has other data, it appears that # 2 Huntington wins the blue ribbon prize for top Trump City by population in WV.

So, since it's my weekend working 4x10s, spent a few hours looking at Tarrant County Texas...

Not just because of this thread, but also as someone who recently lived four years in Texas, I find the state politically fascinating, and other than life circumstances, there's a good chance that I would be a retiree somewhere in the Gulf Coast or the Hill Country regions.

Listening to George Strait "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind" as I type these few words, and basically set Youtube on a George Strait marathon...

So I ran the numbers from Fort Worth precincts in Tarrant County.... It was a bit more complicated than I had expected.... although Texas is a great state, and for many of the large Metro Counties the software packages they use at County Level elections allow one to pull text and import into an Excel spreadsheet.

Then, it should be a simple exercise of coding precincts to match municipalities, correct?

So, I went through the '15 municipal election results from Tarrant to identify precincts that are part of cities/municipalities and coded every precinct associated with places from Fort Worth, Arlington, all the way to Flower Mound.

Based upon these numbers it looks like Clinton won the Tarrant County part of Fort Worth by           ( 58.8 D-  36.8 R)    +20.0% D.

I was amazed and shocked to see how Democratic the City of Fort Worth appears to be....

Still, the problem here is not only the smattering of Fort Worth precincts in neighboring counties (Which was a known variable going into the data analysis), but also were there really only ~75k votes from Fort Worth in Tarrant County?

So, I looked for precinct consolidations and similar variables, and couldn't identify anything publicly available. Any of our Atlasians from Tejas have explanations for the extremely small voter participation level from Fort Worth based upon the '16 numbers I'm seeing?

Sure, I lived almost five years in Texas and get that Fort Worth is 35% Latino, 19% African-American, and only 40% Anglo, so that might explain decreased turnout and the like....

Still, anyways you look at it, the data appears to support the argument that Fort Worth was not Trump's largest City in Tejas.

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No-- absolutely 100% convinced that many of the Tarrrant County numbers are a bit sketch...

Still, voter turnout tends to be much lower in VaP than most states in our great nation, and if these Arlington numbers are totally off the map, then so are the numbers from Fort Worth.

Wish I could confirm '16 GE results within the DFW Metro based upon precinct level data....

Still, voter turnout in Texas is generally fairly low, even in the wealthy Anglo 'Burbs of the the large Metro areas in Texas, so def something to keep an eye on, since changing demographics are increasingly moving Texas into a swing state categlry

So the new map looks something like the following?

Red Confirmed, Pink/Fuscia likely...

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North Dakota....

#1 Fargo confirmed for Trump (43.0% D- 44.7% R- 12.4% Misc)

Looks like Fargo will likely flip in '20 w/o HRC leading the Dem ticket, especially when looking at 3rd Party voting in what is a fairly Liberal Government and College town in ND.

Ran the precinct numbers for Minnehaha County, South Dakota.

Confirmed Trump.

#1 Sioux Falls--- (42.5% D- 50.1% R)

Numbers from the largest cities in both ND and SD don't look good for Dem Pres candidates, considering the only way to make both states somewhat competitive are to rack up 10-15% margins in Fargo and Sioux Falls, in order to create large enough vote margins to cover the gap from heavily Republican precincts in the Western parts of the State(s).

No--- I'm not sure, which is part of the reason I'm still not confident on numbers for Fort Worth as well.

1.) If we use the '15 Statistical Atlas numbers for Arlington we have about 25k residents in Dallas County with the overwhelming majority in Tarrant County.

2.) If we code by municipality and use '15 municipal results for Arlington Precincts in Tarrant, we get the 47.4% D- 46.9% R numbers....   Still 3.7k 3rd Party and 34.6k Dem/Rep seems a bit low.

3.) Still, unless precinct boundaries changed dramatically between '15 and '16, the Tarrant County numbers look decent for both Fort Worth and Arlington in respective Trump/Clinton votes by precinct/municipality.

4.) Numbers definitely look odd, even considering the generally abysmal VAP turnout rate in Texas compared to almost any other state in the Union....

Still 28% of Arlington is < 18 Yrs Old, and additional 27% is 18-35 Yrs....

The numbers are even more lopsided in Fort Worth....

So we have two of the largest cities in Texas, as well as some of the larger cities in the US that are essentially overwhelmingly dominated by a population under the age of 35 Yrs....

5.) So yes there is a chance that precinct boundaries shifted between '15 and '16 in Tarrant County, although I haven't seen any data online to support that. Sure, there are a small number of precincts in Fort Worth and Arlington that stretch over County lines, so potentially Trump might have narrowly won Arlington once we add the Dallas County precincts into the mix, but Fort Worth definitely is voted off the Island....

6.) The more one looks at these numbers, the more questionable the Republican electoral coalition looks like in Texas..... Harris County moving Hard D, Fort Bend County flips, and now it looks like Tarrant County will likely flip within the next few Pres Election cycles as well.

Houston we have a problem....

It's likely that Fort Wayne, IN voted for Trump. If not, I'd imagine Evansville as the largest? And if not that, it's definitely Carmel.

So Updated Map might look something like the follwoing?

()

Red- Confirmed based upon precinct level data, or other publicaly available sources.

Purple= States where precinct level data indicates an overwhelming vote w/o the necessity of precinct level analysis.

Pink/Fuscia= States where it appears that precinct level/municipal data tends to support the largest city by County, although data might be a bit "mushy"

Gray: States where there are some reasonable arguments and data, but lack of research that yet drills down to definitive level of "Pink" category.

White: States where we might have seen some hypotheses (Or not w/o any real supporting evidence to date).

Next category would be creating confirmed findings, but I think the map at least shows us where we can collectively try to hash the data out in more detail.

Plus, we all like maps... :)

Trump definitely lost Nashville and Memphis and definitely won Franklin (#7).  He likely won Clarksville and Murfreesboro (#'s 5 and 6) too, but I am not quite sure on Knoxville (#3) and Chattanooga (#4).  I might be able to run those numbers when I have some time!

Hey ExtemeConservative----   Good to see you around these parts!    :)

Honestly IMHO the best poster from the Volunteer State when it comes to both analysis and discussion of municipal level analysis of Tennessee politics.

Brief soundtrack for anyone wanting to look at Tennessee municipal results, considering that regardless of whatever app one has, it will take quite a bit of time to convert data into an Excel spreadsheet, code precincts by municipality....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWwicgg0SQI

So, took a look at Knoxville and it appears to be HRC country....

From what I saw after cross-referencing the precinct data against precinct maps available on the County Website it looks like Precincts # 1-41 are located within the City of Knoxville, as well as Precinct 44 (Deanne Hill Rec Ctr).

If this precinct level coding is correct it would appear the results are the following"

HRC: 29,845 (49.9%)----   Trump 25,661 (42.9%)--- Other 7.2%.......    Dem (+7.0%)

Unless somehow precinct boundaries shifted or I missed something on a huge precincts, it appears that we need to move down to the next city on the list....

@ ExtremeRepublican.... Are we in alignment???

If my boundaries are right, I have Chattanooga at 54.1 to 41.0 for Hillary Clinton.  I guess the rest of the county was overwhelmingly Republican, since Trump won the county 55-39 even though the City of Chattanooga is the majority of the county (at least by number of precincts).

OK, according to the best precinct data I could find, the answer is #5 Clarksville, which Trump won 49.4 to 44.4.

So, I think we both agree that Clinton won Knoxville based upon our own reviews analysis of precinct level election results....

However, our numbers diverge considerably, so I was curious what you were running as Knoxville numbers....

One complicating factor is that we do have  a considerable number of split-precincts that do not fall completely within City limits....

For the sake of my numbers I included precincts #1-51 as Knoxville, (Note that my when I posted yesterday I inadvertently and incorrectly used my Excel Row numbers and referenced them as precinct numbers, so my City subtotal numbers are still the same) since the entire precinct or overwhelming majority of the precinct fell within Knoxville City limits, as per this precinct map...

http://comptroller.tn.gov/repository/LG/DistrictMaps/Knox/Precinct%20Maps/Current%20Voter%20Precinct%20Map.pdf

My precinct level numbers exported to a spreadsheet from another source (Easier conversion from Text to Column) shows the same raw vote subtotals by candidate for the County....

There was only one other precinct not included in my numbers that Clinton carried was 68E- East Cedar Bluff....

So, my question for you, is there additional information out there that identifies the "split-precinct areas", did the City limit boundaries change between the Nov '16 election and '17 "Current Precinct Map" from Know County that could explain the discrepancy?

So, Clarksville appears be confirmed for TN, and that you ran the County numbers from Precincts #1-21 in Montgomery County....

Much of the population of Clarksville is closely tied to two neighboring large US Military bases...

Interestingly enough the population of Clarksville (23.1%) is much more African-American than Knoxville (16.9%).... and statistically only 60.5% Anglo in Population...

So it appears that the Anglo/ "White" population of Knoxville are much more Democratic than in Clarksville.... Could be a weird outliar as well though caused by a relatively transitional population, many of whom vote within other political jurisdictions as military families, and unfortunately because of a mixture of restrictive state voting right policies, combined with constant shifts in deployment patterns while wearing the American flag patch in the service of our nation, voter turnout among military families is significantly lower than the national average. This is obviously a national disgrace that our election system does not allow Military Families easy access to voting in many states (As is also the case with College Students moving across State Lines as wel)

OT: I believe there should be an individual thread devoted to KY, TN, and AR (We can leave WV aside potentially to avoid Atlas excessively heated debates that go back over 10 years), since these areas appear to be an interesting case study in electoral shifts among White/Anglo voters when one starts to examine election results in deeper detail starting in '88, moving through a major shift in '00, and rolling through to '16.

These states have the lowest percentages of African-American voters in the States of the Old Confederacy, yet White voters tend to have the highest rates of Democratic Presidential support in recent years (Obvious recent exceptions VA, NC, & FL).

We do have '00 precinct results available for every state in the Union, as well as '08 results and '16 results.

I think there is a comprehensive data sheet for '12 results but will need to go back in my archive...

We have key historical data points, although the hardest part would be matching precinct level results from '00/'08 to cities/rural/Uninc areas, in order to see if we can isolate in further detail when cross-referencing against Census Data, where exactly the swings occurred and potentially ask the question "What is the Answer to Life the Universe and Everything"?   

I suspect the number will be 42...

Joking aside---- great work Extreme Republican we have one more state that can be updated on the list.

Question: Have you taken a look at Kentucky lately, since it's in your backyard and all to see what might be the biggest Trump City in Rand Paul and McConnell county.... ;)

Those first numbers were from Chattanooga, not Knoxville.  And, for Clarksville, I didn't get precincts 1-21.

I took the precinct map and included any precinct in the dark gray area (which seems to be the city limits) and deleted the ones outside of it (which didn't really have a consistent number pattern).

https://mcgtn.org:8081/County/election/gis/index.html
Numbers available here: https://mcgtn.org/election/districtspolling-locations

Those first numbers were from Chattanooga, not Knoxville.  And, for Clarksville, I didn't get precincts 1-21.

I took the precinct map and included any precinct in the dark gray area (which seems to be the city limits) and deleted the ones outside of it (which didn't really have a consistent number pattern).

https://mcgtn.org:8081/County/election/gis/index.html
Numbers available here: https://mcgtn.org/election/districtspolling-locations
[/quote]

Bolded relevant section of quote....

So apparently my inability to correctly read city names accounts for the variance in the two numbers!   :)

You taken a look at Kentucky perchance?

Henderson, Nevada appears confirmed for Trump....

2016: 54,672 Trump (49.8%), 47.898 Clinton (43.7%)     +6.1% R

Bonus data using the same precincts for 2012:

2012: 49,285 Romney (50.2%), 47,084 Obama (48.0%)   + 2.2% R

2012 > 2016 Swing:    +3.9% R

Interestingly enough this appears to be one of the few places in the US where a relatively wealthy community swing towards Trump, although granted Trump performed worse than Romney in terms of total % of the City vote.

This subject is worthy of further investigation elsewhere on Atlas, but Henderson has an MHI of $ 64.5k, making it one of the wealthier "places" within Nevada if one uses the statisticalatlas Household Income by place filter on their website....

23% of the population is 60+ and 37% is 55+  so it skews a bit older, and Millennials are massively underrepresented within the City compared to Statewide numbers.

Race/Ethnicity: 69.0% Anglo/White, 13.4% Latino, 7.9% Asian, 5.7% Black, 3.0% Mixed.

Note: Voters 55+ are 79% Anglo/White

Occupations skew heavily towards Professional White Collar jobs.

Educational attainment is relatively high with 38.5% having a degree greater than an HS Diploma, with a full 30% of the population having a Bachelors Degree or higher....

It might be interesting to break the City down further by precinct to see where the swings happened between '12 and '16 to test some of the key variables that appear to have played a significant role nationally in the 2016 General Election:

Household Income / Educational Attainment
Age
Race/Ethnicity
Turnout Levels

Wow!  Great work pulling these results together by precinct--- since I know from personal knowledge how time intensive it can be trying to tie precinct level data into municipal results....

Gulfport is close enough that those split precincts might deserve a closer examination, but it certainly looks like the City is an extremely likely Trump win, since you already went in and looked at the split precincts and how they voted.

Awesome!

So since we have multiple state updates today here's an updated map that shows the results from our crowd-sourcing project...

()

Red= Confirmed using publicly available and verifiable data sources

Purple= Extremely likely using publicly available sources, but still potentially a few items that need to be looked at because of extremely close election results that include split-precincts, raw data looked at, etc...

Pink/Fuscia= Likely/Probable

Gray= Suggested/Mooted by posters with local background knowledge but data hasn't been examined in a systematic pattern.

Let me know if the map color coding needs to be revised, since this is just one person's opinion, and you know what they say about opinions..... :)

Reagente, my apologies for not including Hawaii, since if Trump's largest City in Hawaii was Wheeler AFB CDP where 29 people voted for the two major party candidates, that would be insanely mind boggling, even considering how heavily Hawaii has tended to vote for Democratic GE candidates in recent years....

Damn you're good!

I can't speak for the rest of the posters and followers on the thread, but military precincts are tricky as are college campuses, considering that a vast majority of these population/voters tend to be <25 Yrs and vote remotely in whatever State/County/City/Precinct....

My though would be we take the largest Trump precinct in Hawaii by Total Votes (TV) and call it the biggest Trump win by place in Hawaii....

What are the exact vote totals for those two precincts near BYU- Laie campus?

Thoughts from other posters?

Damn you're on fire today!

Might be a good day if you are over 21 and you currently reside in a state that allows video poker, since you are hitting all of the targets spot on....

On a more serious note, based upon your research and considering that Trump only carried three precincts in Hawaii, I think it's a safe bet to say this was Trump's best performance in Hawaii, even if the Air Force Base technically has a greater population and/or precinct 47-03 is an Uninc area....

So HI confirmed, although it appears there was a major swing towards HRC among LDS members in Hawaii? Def curious about 3rd Party votes in this precinct....

Yeah, looks like I'm late to the thread, but I could have saved you guys some time by saying that there was no way Chattanooga voted for Trump. The city proper tends to fall between 55-60% Democratic in most straightforward elections. I believe Obama got around 58% in 2008.

The county results as a whole can be misleading; Chattanooga is half the county but probably slightly less in actual votes, but the non-Chatt portions of Hamilton County basically vote like any Deep South area (70% GOP or more). In Knox County there's a bit more homogeneity between Knoxville and the rest of Knox than in Chattanooga/rest of Hamilton.

Of the four biggest cities, Knoxville is the most Republican; if you start with it, you can usually figure out whether you need to drill down more. If Knoxville is won by a Democrat, then you can almost certainly bet Chattanooga was as well - and by even more.

I'm not entirely convinced that this is true, for reasons I outlined on the first page:


The more I've thought about it, the more I tend to believe that the broader discrepancy in 2016 when compared to 08/12 (that in bigger counties that swung slightly to Clinton and Trump, the more urban areas saw Democratic turnout drop and the more suburban areas swung to Clinton) would apply here. Huntsville's Democratic base is heavily reliant on black voters: exactly who would and did drop off in big numbers throughout the South and beyond in 2016.

When I think about the '08 numbers I posted above along with that, I imagine the gap (16 points in 2008) would have narrowed somewhat. Trump won the county by 1 point more than McCain, but it very well may be that instead of the Dem winning Huntsville by 1 and losing the rest of Madison by 30, it's a case of the Dem losing Huntsville by 3 and losing the rest of Madison by 25 or so.

How did you parse out the results? When I looked at Huntsville versus Madison's current precincts, it looked like too much of a hot mess to really accurately gather results by merely adding up precincts. Are you using Census data to approximate population portions that are in the city boundaries of each split precinct or comparing side-by-side elections on the same day in both Madison and Huntsville to get an idea based on proportionate turnout/votes cast?

Sounds like you've done the homework, so I'll defer to your data. I guess it does make sense given that Huntsville has a decent amount of sprawl and would take in a lot of areas where Democratic improvement over 2012 would be naturally present - that combined with the broader white demographic makeup of the city could definitely be enough to counteract black drop-off relative to 2008's performance.

For Nebraska looks to be possibly #3 Bellevue, or if not #4 Grand Island....

I ran the precinct numbers for Omaha and it went 47.1 Dem- 44.5 R.

Would be surprised to see #2 Lincoln closer than Omaha...

I'll be taking a look at Sarpy County precinct results here shortly to see if I can confirm #3....

Confirmed Trump by Precinct summation

Nebraska- #3- Bellevue- City- Sarpy County

Pop 51.9k, MHI $ 59.2k,

Race/Ethnicity: 74.3% White, 13.6% Latino, 6.3% Black, 2.8% Mixed, 1.8% Asian

Age: 17% 60+, 30% 50+

Education: 36.3% > HS Diploma, 28% Bachlors Degree or Higher

Occupations/Industries: Skew heavily towards White Collar and Professional Jobs

Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

I've been a bit curious about Sarpy County for awhile, since based on some precinct work that I did on other threads, it didn't really experience the major swings towards the Democratic candidate in '16, unlike most other upper-income precincts and places in the United States....

Although I didn't look at Bellevue at the time, I did run the numbers for some other communities in the County....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

To fill in the blank on California, NcLib probably pulled them from this official document that California publishes as a supplement document to the SoV....

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

So, if we scroll down to page 17 and look at Kern County you see the following results for the City of Bakersfield...

Bakersfield-  50,390 (D) 57,670 (R) 1,340 (GRN) 4,320 (LBT) 679 (Peace & Freedom)....

So results would be: (44.0 D - 50.4 R)      +6.4% R

I also want to note that the WA '16 results that Keep cool-idge posted are legit and some from a comprehensive Excel spreadsheet of all WA precincts, that even wraps data up by municipality. This data was provided to me by one of the best precinct level experts who rarely posts these days on Atlas anymore...

Washington can be coded as a precinct summation by Keep Cool-Idge

Yakima: 12,954 Clinton (43.3 D)- 14,223 Trump (47.5 R)         +4.2% R

So, spent some time looking at Idaho....

Have a bit of beef with the Ada County elections department in that they don't easily allow one to export data into an Excel spreadsheet, so that I can code by municipal results....

Damn County robbed over an hour of my time....

#1: Boise---- Confirmed "NOT TRUMP"

Excluded about a half dozen split precincts, which wouldn't move the needle dramatically anyway you look at it...

2016: 29,463 Trump (34.3%), 44,760 Clinton (52.1%), 4,956 Johnson (5.8%), 3,832 McMullin (4.5%), 1,990 Stein (2.3%).... remainder to various 3rd Party candidates whose names are not familiar even to most of us on Atlas...

Next stop Nampa....

Idaho---

Nampa confirmed Trump....

HRC didn't win a single precinct in Canyon County, unless my "old man eyes" are deceiving me, and honestly didn't feel the need to try to parse precincts by City at this time....

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

So for Kentucky, which is a very difficult state to work with for precinct level results, I think we can eliminate #1 Louisville and #2 Lexington-Fayette for obvious reasons.

I ran the best numbers I could find for precincts that appear to be located within #3 Bowling Green and found the following:

Clinton: 8,165 Votes (48.1%), Trump: 7,637 Votes (45.0%)

So it appears we can eliminate this City, unless someone can find better numbers for the City....

That leaves #4 Owensboro and #5 Covington to be examined....

So not to doubt Cynic or Fuzzybigfoot regarding Alaska, I decided to take a look at Anchorage myself...

It was a bit difficult, so decided to skip over downloading a huge Text file for every single precinct in Alaska, that I would then need to run through an entire file conversion process and all that....

So fine, found this link from the Alaska Dispatch news published on 11/19/16:

https://www.adn.com/politics/2016/11/19/interactive-map-precinct-by-precinct-presidential-results-show-a-deeply-divided-alaska/

Pretty cool right, allows one to zoom on and collect the major two party election vote totals...

So I have some doubts if these results included just same day voting versus VbM, but figured hell why not at least test the data, built my spreadsheet and manually entered results, etc and came up with something like the following for precincts that appeared to be logically located within City boundaries...  HRC ~47%-- DJT 53%.

Ok--- now time to doubt check to see if some of the precincts were Uninc areas, and you get something like the following

https://www.muni.org/Departments/OCPD/Planning/PublishingImages/vicinity.gif

Does the City of Anchorage really extend that far???? Would appear to be insane, so then I pull up the '15 Mayoral election results, and sure enough even Eagle River appears to be included within the Anchorage City Limits....

http://www.muni.org/Departments/Assembly/Clerk/Elections/Election%20Results/SOVC2015.pdf

I still have some questions about Early Voting and Absentee results for Anchorage, (And Alaska at whole) which if they were not included might well make the City a bit closer, considering College Students voting remotely, Millennials working out on Fishing Boats, and all that stuff....

It really appears that Alaska wraps up EVs and Absentees only by District and doesn't include them in the raw precinct totals, making it virtually impossible to break down by munipality to obtain better numbers....

Still, I decide to take a look at absentee and EV results for US Pres for districts 1-6, just to see what the numbers looked like. HRC won 2/6 districts with the Absentee Vote, and Trump added to his lead.

Early Voting, HRC wins 4/6 and numbers are probably about 50-50...

I guess since I've gone this far I might take an hour or so next week to add in the EVs/Absentees, and all of the remaining precincts within what appears to be the huge municipality of Anchorage.

So yeah, Cynic and Fuzzybigfoot are probably close to spot on about Anchorage being a high single digit Trump town, although I would be really curious about 3rd Party proportions of the Vote, and I suspect that would drag Trump's margins down below 50%....

Did we confirm Lincoln, NE for HRC?

Maryland has a lot of well-known communities that are unincorporated CDPs. Would any of them make it if they were incorporated?

I know it's a moot point now that Huntsville voted for Trump, but someone in the 1-A football thread claimed that Tuscaloosa was confirmed for Trump, I doubt this - can you confirm?

No--- I did not run the numbers specifically for Lincoln, NE, but have played around with other precinct results within the County....

Still, running through the precinct returns from '16 matched against Mayoral Results by precincts for '15 we see....

HRC: 38,473 (44.9%), DJT 38,287 (44.7%)    +0.2%

Clinton won Lincoln by significantly larger percentages than that however if one looks at the Absentee Votes: HRC 18,865 (54.4%), DJT 13,249 (38.2%)....

Unfortunately Lancaster County does not break down absentees by precinct.... :(

Still considering that Clinton won same day voting in the largest population center, and didn't appear to have won a single precinct outside of City Limits, I think it is completely safe to say that Clinton won Lincoln by a Mid-Single Digit margin....

Unless anyone has better numbers, I consider Lincoln, Nebraska to be confirmed Clinton based upon the preponderance of evidence in both actual same say votes within the City, as well as absentee votes and patterns within the County....

I have agreed and agree with the consensus.... obviously we need to take a deeper look with "All the Eyes of Texas" playing in the background....

This state definitely needs a much closer examination, since thus far I believe we have settled most state, minus some double-checking here and there, defining "largest municipality" (Incorporated, Unic, CDP, etc...)..

Texas is so big and difficult to run numbers on, it almost deserves it's own thread.

Well, if you have some time on a long distance flight---- I think the consensus based on all empirical data is that because of of the overall County level returns, combined with objectively considered data, those counties that went heavily HRC, had the largest cities vote for HRC by even much larger margins....

Much of this has to do with the different voting patterns of Anglos within the Larger Cities of Texas versus the spawling Unincorporated subdivisions that drive deep into the Coastal Prairies, Northern Prairies, and create giant rings around some of the largest Metro Areas in the US, such as DFW, Houston, SA, & Austin....

An additional factor to consider as well, is that traditionally Republicans have been extremely competitive in Texas, even in Presidential Elections among Middle-Class and Upper Middle-Class Latinos in recent years, where they can frequently bag 40% + of the Vote, or even win, compared to  Working-Class that vote much less frequently but tend to vote more like 80-20% Democratic.

So, for all of these reasons I think the overwhelming consensus on Atlas is to eliminate the following Cities from the list (Although as a geek obviously the results would be interesting).

Pop based upon statisticalatlas.com numbers and is likely a bit higher for all these cities in 9/17

1.) Houston- Pop 2.135k- Harris County voted (54 D- 42 R).....
2.) San Antonio- Pop 1.359k- Bexar County Voted ( 54 D- 40 R)....
3.) Dallas- Pop 1,222k-  Dallas County Voted (60 D- 34 R)...
4.) Austin- Pop 837k- Travis County Voted (66 D- 27 R)...
5.) Fort Worth- Pop 761k-  Tarrant ONLY ( 43 D-- 52  R)----   

* The precinct numbers I ran for the Tarrant County section of Forth Worth showed as ( 59 D- 37 R). Considering the overwhelming majority of the City voters and population are located within that County....

Still, would be interesting to run the total numbers on Fort Worth in all three counties, since overall population does not equal voters....

Fmr President Griffin ran some interesting numbers on another thread regarding Oklahoma City, so although it is extremely improbable that Trump won Fort Worth, he most likely lost it by significantly less than the Tarrant County numbers suggest.

Would love to see the verifiable numbers overall to see how this looks, since Fort Worth is always on my mind when it comes to politics in the Lone Star State.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272652.msg5834531#msg5834531

6.) El Paso- Pop 661k- El Paso County Vote ( 68 D- 26 R)

So now we get to the cities that need further examination (Although Fort Worth would be interesting just in case there was a large variance between Tarrant County Precincts and those in neighboring counties)

7.) Arlington---- Pop 371.k- NEEDS TOTAL REVIEW

8.) Corpus Christi- Pop 309k- Nueces County voted (47 D- 49 R)---- Def likely HRC vs Trump but not confirmed.

9.) Plano- Pop 267k- Collins County Voted (39 D- 55 R).....

Although I would not be surprised if Plano voted Trump, considering that it likely swung more heavily Democratic than the County at large, in a City where there is a much higher Democratic voting base than many of the even wealthier precincts that swung heavily Dem in '16, with a much smaller voting base, it is likely a stretch without taking a decent "odds-bet" that HRC won Plano.

If not Plano, then we start moving even further down the list to #11 Laredo (HRC)....

Pretty sure #12 Lubbock voted Trump....

So here's your Saturday Plane Flight research project, and if I beat you to it, oh well ;)

Although honestly I likely won't have the time to look into this until Friday.....

Here's a spreadsheet for Arlington:

Arlington 2016 Spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P-osbvORvWI4_8IslLD02gjFgVwJrVjBgWW6vOS8e5U/edit?usp=sharing)

I haven't taken a close look at the data to see where partial precincts might be an issue (I did notice a few where there were 1000+ presidential votes but practically 0 Prop 1 votes), but from a quick look at the old DRA data, precinct boundaries conformed pretty well to municipal ones in previous cycles. I noticed that the presidential race had about 17k more votes from these combined precincts than the Proposition 1 total, so it's likely there are a few precincts that need to be removed from the presidential column due to there being almost no voters in municipal boundaries in those precincts.

With that being said, I think even after the numbers are polished, Clinton carried it unless those partial precincts are overwhelmingly Democratic:

Candidate	# Votes	Percentage	Margin
Clinton	65,404	49.13%	+3.37
Trump	60,910	45.76%
Other	6,808	4.71%

^^^ Just did a quick comparison of vote totals between Prop 1 and 2016-Pres for each Arlington precinct where there was a discrepancy. After all was said and done, the margin shifted in favor of Clinton by about 300 votes (+/-100); virtually no change. I'm very confident Clinton won Arlington by about 3.5 points and just shy of 50%.

EDIT: corrected # typo in previous post, but did not change prelim count to reflect further precinct analysis mentioned here

Wyoming - Cheyenne (1) - Only 1 precinct in Cheyenne's county voted for HRC.

[/quote]

Since I was just looking through some precinct data on Wyoming for another thread, I decided to pop over and take I look at Cheyenne '16 Pres results, not that I doubted your data, but was curious how Republican Cheyenne was in '16.

Cheyenne: 14,687 Trump (54.9%)--- 8,853 Cllinton (33.1%)        + 31.8% R

What is interesting here is how weak Trump's performance was in Cheyenne, considering this is a place where one would imagine Trump should in theory have been fairly popular....

Granted HRC was certainly not popular at all in the '16 GE election, and only won two precincts in the City (1-4 and 1-6 both located in West Cheyenne).

I'm actually wondering about how longer term trends will play out in the City, considering that it is fairly well educated for Wyoming (37.3% > HS Diploma), has a significant and rapidly growing Latino population (14.9% of pop and only about 70% of the pop <19 are White), and is heavily dependent upon Government jobs (14.9% are employed in Government Industries).

I'll need to take a closer look at Cheyenne and bump an older thread on Wyoming with the findings, since I believe I have access to precinct level results going back to 2000, and as the largest City in the State would certainly be interesting to examine (Not that Wyoming is likely to vote Democratic for US-PRES anytime in the near future, still in States like WY pop growth tends to mainly occur in the cities, rather than in the overwhelmingly Republican rural areas).

Orland Park village and Orland twp have been confirmed for Trump, while Crystal Lake is likely. Is it worth checking bigger cities/municipalities in IL to see if any voted for Trump?

I'm going to take a look at Mesa just out of curiosity; I'm transposing the data from the Maricopa County's crappy PDFs and am about halfway done (going in numerical order; currently 52-38). Gotta step out for a bit but will finish it when I return.

Here's what I have for the Northeast, where some towns/townships are more populous than some cities, though cities are often more dense and more Democratic.

Conn. city:    9 Bristol
municipality: 13 Bristol

Mass. city: 29   Westfield
municipality: 33 Westfield         

R.I. city: all RI cities voted for HRC   
municipality: 7 Coventry
         
N.H.   city: 5 Rochester
municipality: 4 Derry
         
ME:  5 Auburn

VT   city: 4 Barre
municipality: 11 Barre

N.Y. city: 15   Rome   Oneida
municipality: Brookhaven,   Suffolk County
                     
Penn. city: 10   Altoona   Blair
township: 14 Millcreek twp, Erie County
                     
NJ city: 29 Ocean City   Cape May
municipality: 7   Lakewood twp   Ocean (though it is still listed on Wiki's list of cities with over 100K)

I see your list includes some cities and some municipalities when they differ. Also, for the Northeast, I used the list given on Wiki which is often 2010, while some Wiki lists for other states use more recent estimates.

Mesa, AZ (excluding precinct splits):

Trump 94793 (53.13%) +15.77
Clinton 66655 (37.36%)
Johnson 9076 (5.09%)
Other 5396 (3.02%)
Stein 2512 (1.41%)

Not that it was ever in question, but since I was running the numbers for SLC on another thread, for sake of completeness the precinct summary for SLC is:

HRC: 50,852 (66.1%)
Trump: 12,567 (16.3%)
McMullin: 8,347 (10.8%)

And the largest cities overall to vote for Trump are:

27 Oklahoma City, OK
36 Mesa, AZ
40 Colorado Springs, CO
43 Virginia Beach, VA
47 Tulsa, OK (though unconfirmed)
50 Wichita, KS

Cool!!!

Thanks for throwing this together....

I need to take a look at Tulsa as part of another thread to determine how the City voted, since it is home to a major college Football team from the AAC-West @ the University of Tulsa, so will update the results accordingly, if someone else doesn't beat me to it   (Hint.... ;) )

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5845130#msg5845130

So nclib, since this is your thread and honestly one of the best of Atlas when it comes to crowd-sourcing of election results by precinct/municipality, would be interesting to see you include the % of vote for candidate for the top Trump Cities by Population nationally, as per your list above!!!

We need to figure out what cities BRTD will boycott the most by ranking... ;)

So Trump won 6/50 top cities by population in the US if I read your numbers correctly, based upon what we know now?

BTW: Once again want to thank yourself and many of the other effort posters on this thread that you started, for being close to completing this project, since honestly it's one of the coolest threads on Atlas when it comes to more "Micro Level" election results, that helps provide a larger narrative of the 2016 US-PRES GE.

It would be good to figure out the largest raw vote margin for Trump.

It's likely one of these:


OKC - 40K?
Mesa - 28K
Colo. Springs - 36K
Va. Beach - 7K
Tulsa - 9K
Wichita - ?

Did you find a link to CDPs by population in Maryland? IIRC, Baltimore County doesn't have any incorporated cities.

Don't suppose you have the numbers for College Park (Not that I would expect it to ever vote Republican anytime before 2032, even if the 'Pubs reinvent themselves dramatically over the next few decades, or there is such an overwhelmingly major historical event such as a massive economic collapse, or devastating overseas war pinned squarely at the hands of the Democratic Party?

Can run the numbers myself, but since you seem to have a ton of data at your fingertips, if you don't mind sharing, will provide to another thread with attribution...    :)

Sorry, not trying to be an English teacher because I love this thread, but isn't it Glen Burnie?

I don't think we need a separate thread for this, but it would be good to have a list of largest city by state to vote for Clinton for the states where the largest city voted for Trump.

That would be...

Virginia - Norfolk (2)
Oklahoma - Norman (3)
Wyoming - Laramie (3)
Montana - Missoula (2)
North Dakota - ?
South Dakota - ?
Kansas - ?
Alaska - ?

I think Derry, NH is bigger than Rochester unless we're going by actual cities and not towns

Yes, Derry is bigger than Rochester and I addressed this on the first page along with other states where the largest municipality is not a city.

That's an interesting question, and pretty sure VA,OK,WY, and MT are confirmed... at least I know that OK and WY are, since I ran the precinct numbers myself. VA is official SoS results, MT is totally common logic, as well as looking at the basic math of the County, without even running precinct numbers (Although that would be cool as well).

So, spent a few hours with North Dakota after downloading a comprehensive 2016 GE precinct report for all statewide elections in the State....

Took a bit of time, since I accidentally copied all results rather than just Pres results....

1.) Fargo--  Pop 108.4k

So, I had to double-check my numbers and found that there were some precincts that I included within the Fargo City results that were actually split precincts, that overlapped with surrounding rural/exurban precincts and overlapped with West Fargo precincts.

Still, even if we only use the numbers for precincts 100% within the City limits we see the following results:

18,627 HRC (43.2% D), 19,120 Trump (44.3% Trump) with 43,137 Total Votes.

Needless to say the split-precincts, even if one were to care out the vote share by Uninc/Rural, Fargo/ West Fargo, the total percentages and raw votes would get worse for HRC within the City itself, considering the voting patterns of neighboring precincts within the Fargo itself....

2.) Bismarck---- HRC won zero precincts within Burleigh County. Although it appears she performed significantly better within the City than rural areas and places outside of City limits, this is still definitely a decent margin Trump City. Her best precinct with some 850 votes in the heart of the City, she narrowly lost by some 30 votes, while apparently getting hit hard elsewhere in the City.

3.) Grand Forks- So HRC won five precincts within the County by extremely narrow margins.... Needless to say, she lost Grand Forks by a decent margin, although she performed better than in Bismarck, and a bit worse than in Fargo.

4.) Minot---- Not much to say here.... HRC didn't win a single precinct within the County.

5.) West Fargo---- Same problem with split-precincts, but West Fargo looks like it was more of a 55-40 Trump City (Likely higher margins), so we can safely rule that out.

6.) Dickinson, ND- No HRC precincts within the County

7.) Mandan- Same

8.) Willston- Same

9.) Stutsman- Same

10.) Wahpeton- Same

Good chance that the largest community that HRC won in ND was on Native Lands, where she was killed with massive defection to 3rd Party Votes because she was perceived as supporting the Oil Pipeline Project resisted by First Nation communities from throughout the region....

Vermilion is not a reservation town. It is majority white and is home of the University of South Dakota.

For your state capitals list, you left off Kansas and Vermont. Topeka, KS is unknown and needs to be precinct checked, and Montpelier, VT of course went Democratic.

Also, Annapolis, MD was thought to go Repub on the football cities thread, though I personally doubt it based on 2008 results, and I haven't seen numbers for Helena, MT.

Bolded Overland Park, Kansas----

Pretty sure you're right on that count....

I did some work on Johnson County, Kansas as part of a previous thread....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715463#msg5715463

I seem to recall Overland Park numbers looking pretty heavily Democratic as well, although I would need to find what external drive I stashed the County Precinct Excel file on, and then go back and code by precincts to see the exact numbers and '12>'16 swings....

If we're going by towns then I'm sure something on Long Island beats Rome, NY.

Since I've spent the past 48 hours working on Maricopa County Arizona, and a few days working on Pima County I can confirm Mesa is #3....

We have the following results from Arizona:

Note---- there are some split precincts floating around here and there, but this would only make small movements on the margins for any of these communities, and it is also important to note that in the desert parts of the Southwest, generally most developers want to build within a given municipality, in order to provide all of the amenities and hookups that new homeowners expect when they buy their home...

2016 Presidential Election Results by City- Arizona:

1.) Phoenix----

276,438 HRC (53.6% D), 201,434 Trump (39.0% R)-----  + 14.6% D      + 75,004 D

2.) Tucson---

125,970 HRC (60.4% D), 67,322 Trump (32.3% R)------  + 28.1% D       + 58,648 D

3.) Mesa---

68,370 HRC (37.0% D), 99,022 Trump (53.5% R)---        + 16.5% R       +  30,652 R

4.) Chandler---

49,684 HRC (45.1% D), 47,913 Trump (43.5% R)            + 1.6 % D        + 1,771 D

5.) Glendale---

35,079 HRC (45.1% D), 36,766 Trump (47.3% R)            + 2.2% R         + 1,687 R

6.) Scottsdale---

54,002 HRC (43.2% D), 63,560 Trump (50.8% R)            + 7.6% R          + 9,558 R

7.) Gilbert---

39,081 HRC (35.9% D), 60,098 Trump (55.2% R)            + 19.3% R         + 21,017 R

8.) Tempe---

37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 Trump (32.6% R)           + 25.0% D          + 16,155 D

9.) Peoria---

27,569 HRC (35.2% D), 45,551 Trump (58.1% R)            + 22.9% R         + 17,982 R

10.) Surprise---

19,351 HRC (35.2% D), 32,287 Trump (58.7% R)            + 23.5% R         + 12,936 R


Side note, since I've been working on Maricopa County for all 724 precincts in '16 as part of a separate project, pulled the '12 numbers today and am trying to look at the various swings by municipality, economic background, age and ethnicity, since the overall swings in this County were enormous in many widely varying communities within the County....

I strongly suspect that Chandler flipped from '12 to '16, but can't confirm until I finalize the numbers....

Obviously Mesa is # 3 regardless of the DDHQ inferred reference ( We don't need to slice and dice the split precinct numbers here, unlike if this came down to Chandler or Glendale where these numbers might potentially flip a City)....

Think I want through some numbers on the College Football thread and ran into some split precinct issues on the subject of Waco by Municipal Level results

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5906638#msg5906638

I like how you are expanding this project reagente....

Obviously the next expansion might be to compare '12 > '16 numbers not only by partisan swings, but also by DEM/REP net increases and decreases within municipalities....

I'll need to check and see if I have any of the data below sitting on my hard drive (Precinct Consolidation)....

I do seem to recall running into some municipal precinct level results with College Station and Denton, Texas (But a bit foggy since Nov '16 seems so far back these days)     ;)

Here are the 15 most dense cities (over 100,000) to vote for Trump:

94   Hialeah    Florida   10,995 / sq. mi.
114   Huntington Beach    California   7,459
293   El Cajon    California   7,156
243   Clearwater    Florida   4,415
279   Clovis    California   4,404
86   Glendale    Arizona   4,161
305   Lakewood    New Jersey   4,079
69   Plano    Texas   3,990
204   Sterling Heights    Michigan   3,628
307   Clinton    Michigan   3,573
166   Pasadena    Texas   3,525
248   West Jordan    Utah   3,520
36   Mesa    Arizona   3,514
208   Visalia    California      3,495
93   Gilbert    Arizona      3,487

OK. Edited.

Anyone know more info about why these cities vote that way? I know Hialeah is Cuban, Lakewood is Orthodox Jewish, West Jordan is Mormon, as is Mesa to a lesser extent.

All of these, with the exception of Visalia, are not center cities. These are the densest center cities (over 100K) to vote for Trump:

208   Visalia    California      3,495
238   Provo    Utah   2,803 (yes, technically in Salt Lake metro, but Provo probably belongs on this list)
234   Odessa    Texas   2,608
53   Bakersfield    California   2,529
232   Evansville    Indiana   2,526
265   Billings    Montana   2,525
229   Fargo     North Dakota   2,450
50   Wichita    Kansas   2,431
76   Fort Wayne    Indiana   2,391
40   Colorado Springs    Colorado   2,378

Bump.

nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html

Yes, this made it a lot easier.

New Jersey is obviously wrong on the list. The clear answer is Lakewood (#5*), which might also be the most Trump municipality in New Jersey.


*Although it was #7 in 2010 and only barely passed Edison and Woodbridge in 2017 so might have been #6 or #7 in 2016.

Well NcLib did call it out in the opening post of the thread, but it got lost in translation I believe when Reagente created the spreadsheet summary:


I suspect part of the confusion might have been separating City / Municipality in the OPs question, and some of the subsequent work focused more the "City" aspect and "Townships" might have fallen into more of a neglected category.

Still, good research calling this discrepancy out how the category of municipality as defined under State laws, can create some confusion or vagueness when attempting to identify the "top place" by State....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Municipalities_in_New_Jersey

Perhaps this opens up new areas to research and validate for this project?