Talk Elections

discuss.

some people claim that is is 'trending dem'.  a close examination of the presidential election returns 96-04 would suggest otherwise.

anyone care to elaborate?

I think a lot of it has to do with a desire to think of a way that the Democrats could reverse the post-94 GOP dominance without touching the evil, evil South ;D

But trends are always dangerous things

you are correct.

a lot of folks think the continuing hispanic migration into the southwest will tip the scales to the democrats.  i think that is incredibly simplistic, especially since the gop has made some inroads with the hispanic community.

i would also assume that many retirees flocking to 'zona are from the midwest and probably tend to be republican in nature.  maybe carlhayden can step in and confirm or deny that?

Arizona has two major trends happening:

1. Urbanization
2. Influx of disaffected, mostly middle-class white, Californians

1. will cause a Democrat shift, while 2 will cause a GOP shift.  What direction the state goes depends on the balance of these two trends.

Perhaps... but I wouldn't be so sure of that. Historically, urbanisation in Arizona has tended to aid the GOP

Everyone but Beef is pretty close to correct.

Several things most people don't know.

First, Arizona has one of the highest percentage of population that is retired military in the nation (so, disparage the military here and you're politically dead).

Second, Arizona has one of the highest percentage of National Rifle Association membership in the nation (I personally know and have voted for several of the board members).  I helped defeat an incumbent Democrat State Senator in 1974 who came out against the right to keep and bear arms (he was the only incumbent Democrat state legislator to lose reelection). 

Third, the refugees from California (fleeing liberal tyranny there) are NOT going to move Arizona to the left (they have seen what happened to California).

Fourth, our cities are different from eastern cities.  The largest city with partisan elections (Tucson) has a Republican mayor (and a couple of Republican councilmembers).  The Democrats they defeated were stupid enough to attack the right to keep and bear arms.

Fifth, while hispanics here, like in Texas to tend to vote Democrat more than Republican, they are by and large pretty conservative.  Also, one of the Repubican members of the Tucson city council is a hispanic.

Sixth, the only group which has decisively moved left in the past thirty years are the Navajos.  They are hated and despised by the other 'nations' (most people erroneously call them 'tribes') in Arizona.

Seventh, Democrats typically win (statewide) when the Republicans have an internal fight AND the Democrat is moderate to conservative.
 

THE METS JUST SWEPT THE DIAMONDBACKS!!!!!!!!!!111  Thanks AZ1!!!!!!!11

Arizona is a tough state for Dems - they have to move libertarian, while not appearing immoral, and while maintaining Hispanic voting.  In addition, they have to make inroads in Phoenix suburbs like Mesa and Tempe (if I'm chosing the right two) that are ultra-Republican with perhaps a libertarian streak.

It's possible, but difficult, unless they start winning Maricopa County.

Which ain't going to happen any time soon

Yes, that's why I said the California out-migration will cause a GOP shift in AZ.

Isn't Mesa a Mormon stronghold?  Tempe might be easier because it has Arizona State.

One factor which many political observers not familiar with Arizona miss is that as the national Democrat party has lurched to the left, moderate and conservative Democrats have been voting Republican.

An excellent example is Greenlee county, Arizona (negligible population growth). 

Year          Republican % of Presidential Vote

2000                    54.7%

1980                    40.6

1960                    29.9

Now that I'm looking at the results, it appears Mesa is very schizophrenic - some 70% Bush precincts, and then some Kerry precincts.  Tempe is pretty Democratic.

It's hard to tell because only Tempe and Mesa have precincts labeled by city; the rest of the county gives each precinct a cute name.

And, yes, Maricopa County is one hell of a longshot, which is why Arizona is.

Wasn't there a McCain blip in 2000 that looked like a trend?

Clinton winning it was sheer luck (and Dole was a lousy candidate)

Dole was so unpopular in Arizona that the only reason he didn't finish third in the state primary was that games were played with polling locations to reduce the Buchanan vote.

Forbes ran some really good commercials showing Dole for what he was, the candidate of tax increases.

Dole was so bad that he was the only Republican nominee for President since 1948 to not carry the state.

Democrats have a shot at AZ.  If the Democrats can gain back he Hispanic vote, this state could become a swing state.

I'm not sure that's going to be all that helpful, since Hispanics account for only 12% of the voters in Arizona, according to CNN exit polls.  They just don't vote.  We need to get the vote out.

Kerry won Hispanics 56%-43%.

I think the 12% figure is a bit understated don't you?  Is it possible that some say they are white?  Either way I am talking about future trends.  No one would argue that hispanics are pouring into the state.

I suppose some may, but much of the Hispanic population of Arizona is either not legal or not likely to vote.

Well, the Hispanic share rose from 20% to 25% between 1990 and 2000. That's a marked increase, but no explosion.
Of course the total no of people tells a different story, it's just that Hispanics are not the only people pouring into the state.

I'd have liked to see the Dems nominate Bill Richardson for VP last year to see how that might help in the SW. I'll bet it would have swung Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico to their column and lessened the gap significantly (though not enough to win) Arizona and Texas. In presidential contests only, the Dems need to be realistic and accept that the South is a lost cause. I don't see a lot of Republicans worrying about their standing in Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, or West Coast in presidential contests. The Southwest, because it is fairly well-balanced politically is crucial and Hispanics are the key for either party.

Wow.

Huh. Believe this at your own peril, Idaho and Montana.

That analysis would have been right if the GOP didn't trend hard lunatic right such that UMC white people bailed on the party.  So now both trends favor Democrats.

This is just bad analysis. Arizona was a hub of the Tea Party movement. SB 1070? Remember that? The issue in AZ isn't that Republicans went conservative, it's that Trump doesn't play well with suburban voters.

Yah there was a study done most tea partiers were UMC