Talk Elections

General Politics => Political Geography & Demographics => Topic started by: nclib on January 04, 2004, 11:46:32 PM



Title: Gender gap
Post by: nclib on January 04, 2004, 11:46:32 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-12-17-gendergap-cover_x.htm

'Til politics do us part: Gender gap widens
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON; Lynne and Scott Albert readily agree on family finances, summer vacations and the perfect holiday gifts for their 5-year-old twins; Care Bears for Cammie, a toy monster truck for Josh.
But when it comes to politics, Lynne, an attorney, and Scott, a venture capitalist with an MBA, often disagree about candidates and issues. He's a Republican worried about taxes and government regulations who is "definitely" voting for President Bush next year. She's a Democrat concerned about policies that affect women and children, and she's shopping for the candidate with the best chance of beating Bush.

The couple from Chapel Hill, N.C., aren't unusual. Highly educated men and women increasingly view the political world in dramatically different ways: Men are mostly Republicans, women are predominantly Democrats. A modest gender gap among Americans who don't have college educations balloons for those with a college degree or more.

The political divide between college-educated men and women has been growing for a decade.
And the trend has become more important as the number of women getting undergraduate and postgraduate degrees has surged.

"Highly educated women are a new Democratic base, almost to the same extent as union voters and ethnic voters," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. Meanwhile, Republicans have made gains among all blue-collar workers, especially men.

The result: The stereotypes of the two political parties; Democrats as the party of the working stiff, Republicans as representing those with money in the bank; no longer fit. Each party has become a more complicated coalition in which social issues and "values" are as much a unifying force as traditional bread-and-butter concerns.
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This link provides state-by-state results and has info on other demographics.

http://www.feminist.org/research/ggap2000.pdf

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I do think this is interesting and benefits Democrats since more and more women are attending college.

How do you guys think this will impact the 2004 election and future elections?


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 08:24:41 AM
Gender gaps are interesting. I saw a similar analysis being made in my country on referenda, where elderly men v young women was the usual match-up. It was pointed out that the women usually loses, for some reason (I think lack of self-esteem)...

In our recent referendum the no-side won 62-36 among women and 50-48 among men, so there was a clear difference.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-12-17-gendergap-cover_x.htm

'Til politics do us part: Gender gap widens
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON; Lynne and Scott Albert readily agree on family finances, summer vacations and the perfect holiday gifts for their 5-year-old twins; Care Bears for Cammie, a toy monster truck for Josh.
But when it comes to politics, Lynne, an attorney, and Scott, a venture capitalist with an MBA, often disagree about candidates and issues. He's a Republican worried about taxes and government regulations who is "definitely" voting for President Bush next year. She's a Democrat concerned about policies that affect women and children, and she's shopping for the candidate with the best chance of beating Bush.

The couple from Chapel Hill, N.C., aren't unusual. Highly educated men and women increasingly view the political world in dramatically different ways: Men are mostly Republicans, women are predominantly Democrats. A modest gender gap among Americans who don't have college educations balloons for those with a college degree or more.

The political divide between college-educated men and women has been growing for a decade.
And the trend has become more important as the number of women getting undergraduate and postgraduate degrees has surged.

"Highly educated women are a new Democratic base, almost to the same extent as union voters and ethnic voters," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. Meanwhile, Republicans have made gains among all blue-collar workers, especially men.

The result: The stereotypes of the two political parties; Democrats as the party of the working stiff, Republicans as representing those with money in the bank; no longer fit. Each party has become a more complicated coalition in which social issues and "values" are as much a unifying force as traditional bread-and-butter concerns.
-------
This link provides state-by-state results and has info on other demographics.

http://www.feminist.org/research/ggap2000.pdf

-------
I do think this is interesting and benefits Democrats since more and more women are attending college.

How do you guys think this will impact the 2004 election and future elections?


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 10:15:52 AM
Heard this morning that the Dem have not won a majority of the white vote since 1960.  Can anyone verify this?  In presidential races I mean.

as to gender, all the media talks about is how the gOP isn't getting women, well if so close where are the men, with the GOP.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 10:22:12 AM
Aren't women more easily swayed than men, generally, or is that just a sexistic myth? ;)

Heard this morning that the Dem have not won a majority of the white vote since 1960.  Can anyone verify this?  In presidential races I mean.

as to gender, all the media talks about is how the gOP isn't getting women, well if so close where are the men, with the GOP.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 12:05:24 PM
Well you are asking a guys only audience what do you think we will say? :)

Especially when this year is supposed to be about NASCAR dads, the male gender gapo I would think would get some play.


Aren't women more easily swayed than men, generally, or is that just a sexistic myth? ;)

Heard this morning that the Dem have not won a majority of the white vote since 1960.  Can anyone verify this?  In presidential races I mean.

as to gender, all the media talks about is how the gOP isn't getting women, well if so close where are the men, with the GOP.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 03:23:31 PM
Haha, Good point! :)

"NASCAR dads", that would be one of these obscure voter groups that nobody seems to like, right? What does NASCAR stand for (sorry for being so ignorant, but I'm learning...)

Well you are asking a guys only audience what do you think we will say? :)

Especially when this year is supposed to be about NASCAR dads, the male gender gapo I would think would get some play.


Aren't women more easily swayed than men, generally, or is that just a sexistic myth? ;)

Heard this morning that the Dem have not won a majority of the white vote since 1960.  Can anyone verify this?  In presidential races I mean.

as to gender, all the media talks about is how the gOP isn't getting women, well if so close where are the men, with the GOP.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 03:38:34 PM
NASCAR- is the professional racing league here in America, you know the "Winston Cup Series" , Dale Jerret, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, etc.

One of the fastest growing sports here in the states and important as it is seen as new "Soccer moms" group./  Mostly fathers int eh South and Midwest that enjoy the sport and vote GOP and increasingly going more GOP, but Dems for some reason think they can steal them away this year.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 03:46:16 PM
Ah. I figured I rembered it from somewhere, but I didn't make the connection right away. Thanks. (I don't know a lot about the sport, but I've heard of it...) I will tell myself that the last part was biased! :)

NASCAR- is the professional racing league here in America, you know the "Winston Cup Series" , Dale Jerret, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, etc.

One of the fastest growing sports here in the states and important as it is seen as new "Soccer moms" group./  Mostly fathers int eh South and Midwest that enjoy the sport and vote GOP and increasingly going more GOP, but Dems for some reason think they can steal them away this year.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 03:47:58 PM
no all of it was true.  

Ah. I figured I rembered it from somewhere, but I didn't make the connection right away. Thanks. (I don't know a lot about the sport, but I've heard of it...) I will tell myself that the last part was biased! :)

NASCAR- is the professional racing league here in America, you know the "Winston Cup Series" , Dale Jerret, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, etc.

One of the fastest growing sports here in the states and important as it is seen as new "Soccer moms" group./  Mostly fathers int eh South and Midwest that enjoy the sport and vote GOP and increasingly going more GOP, but Dems for some reason think they can steal them away this year.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 03:48:56 PM
www.nascar.com  to learn about the sport so you will have a better understanding, always trying to help :)

Guys like fast cars :)


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 03:50:16 PM
No need to rub it in...

no all of it was true.  

Ah. I figured I rembered it from somewhere, but I didn't make the connection right away. Thanks. (I don't know a lot about the sport, but I've heard of it...) I will tell myself that the last part was biased! :)

NASCAR- is the professional racing league here in America, you know the "Winston Cup Series" , Dale Jerret, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, etc.

One of the fastest growing sports here in the states and important as it is seen as new "Soccer moms" group./  Mostly fathers int eh South and Midwest that enjoy the sport and vote GOP and increasingly going more GOP, but Dems for some reason think they can steal them away this year.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: © tweed on January 05, 2004, 04:07:32 PM
I hate NASCAR.  And it isn't growing, it stopped growing when Earnhardt died.  You know what's growing?  College Football.  When we institute a lucrative playoff system, watch the people and the $$$ flow in.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 04:09:48 PM
www.nascar.com  to learn about the sport so you will have a better understanding, always trying to help :)

Guys like fast cars :)

Thanks, but I doubt that I will become an instant fan, since I might be a bit of an exception to that last line... :)

Still learning is always good! :)


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: migrendel on January 05, 2004, 04:10:52 PM
I think we should try to court the saps who watch such drivel like the black plague.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 04:35:25 PM
that may happen in this lifetime, LSU and OKL both looked terrible last night BTW.

I hate NASCAR.  And it isn't growing, it stopped growing when Earnhardt died.  You know what's growing?  College Football.  When we institute a lucrative playoff system, watch the people and the $$$ flow in.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 05, 2004, 04:36:07 PM
Always trying to be inclusive aren't you?


I think we should try to court the saps who watch such drivel like the black plague.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: migrendel on January 05, 2004, 04:38:08 PM
It would be like having people from Rainbow/PUSH and NARAL at one of your fundraisers. You don't want people who will embarass your party.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on January 05, 2004, 07:13:22 PM
I'd have no problem with people from Rainbow/PUSH or NARAL as long as they agreed with most of our agenda.  It doesn't matter to me what sport they follow.

Gustaf, a majority of the followers of NASCAR are white, male, country music listeners, and blue collar.  Exactly the kind of voter that the Democrat party is "embarrased" by.  

Limosuine liberals who listen to classical music and watch championship squash are of course more than welcome in the party of Howard Dean and his rich ski buddies.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 07:14:48 PM
I'd have no problem with people from Rainbow/PUSH or NARAL as long as they agreed with most of our agenda.  It doesn't matter to me what sport they follow.

Gustaf, a majority of the followers of NASCAR are white, male, country music listeners, and blue collar.  Exactly the kind of voter that the Democrat party is "embarrased" by.  

Limosuine liberals who listen to classical music and watch championship squash are of course more than welcome in the party of Howard Dean and his rich ski buddies.

What is it that you are trying to tell me? :)


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on January 05, 2004, 07:24:24 PM
That if you 'work for a living', (a term I get from my dad, a huge nascar fan) the Democrat party is no longer for you.  You might not fit the snobbish view of America from million dollar manhattan apartments or the bastions of liberal/socialist thought and thus would be an embarrassment.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: © tweed on January 05, 2004, 08:03:48 PM
that may happen in this lifetime, LSU and OKL both looked terrible last night BTW.

I hate NASCAR.  And it isn't growing, it stopped growing when Earnhardt died.  You know what's growing?  College Football.  When we institute a lucrative playoff system, watch the people and the $$$ flow in.
But USC looked damn good against Michigan.  I like the old bowl system better, with the traditional conference matchups.  The BCS is BS.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 05, 2004, 08:06:23 PM
That if you 'work for a living', (a term I get from my dad, a huge nascar fan) the Democrat party is no longer for you.  You might not fit the snobbish view of America from million dollar manhattan apartments or the bastions of liberal/socialist thought and thus would be an embarrassment.

OK, I got that, I was just wondering why you were directing at me in a so specific way, like I needed to know this more than any other person on the board. But I find it easy to believe you, most communists have always been upper class. My dad comes from a working class family and he has always held open contempt for "spoiled upper-class kids" who were communists in 1968 movement (or later for that matter).


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: migrendel on January 05, 2004, 09:13:37 PM
I don't see why I would be a bad nominee just because I prefer the opera to the Opry, or prefer skiing and squash to watching some car, or because I think that thought should take precedence over the economic self-interests of the working class within our party.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 06, 2004, 04:15:09 AM
I would guess that the gender gap would be more pronounced the higher up the economic tree you get.

Over here Labour has always won more male votes than female votes, partly due to the(reasonably accurate) sterotype of a Labour supporter as being white, working class and Northern. The stuff about doping whippits and eating chips with everything is not.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: English on January 06, 2004, 05:04:57 AM
I would guess that the gender gap would be more pronounced the higher up the economic tree you get.

Over here Labour has always won more male votes than female votes, partly due to the(reasonably accurate) sterotype of a Labour supporter as being white, working class and Northern. The stuff about doping whippits and eating chips with everything is not.

The reason men used to be more inclined to Labour than women is because of the heavily unionised male workforce. In the 1960's most men belonged to a trade union, whereas working women did not. Many British men engaged in heavy industry held strong socialist, populist beliefs whereas women were much more conservative.
In Britain today however it's more of an age voting gap. The average age of Tories in the UK is about 173!
All younger age groups tend to be inclined away from the Tories to LD or Labour. Funny you should say that NASCAR dads are GOP voting and classical music sorts Dem Voting. In Britain it would be the opposite. Beer guzzling, sports obsessed British rednecks are overwhelmingly Labour. The type of person who listens to classical music and dines out in fine restaurants or tea shops is the archetypal Tory.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on January 06, 2004, 05:20:35 AM
Those tories are youngsters, the average age of a Democrat is about 940 years old :)

The age gap in America is rather even at this point and if the trends continue, Republicans will gain the lead among younger voters and Democrats among older voters.  In the 2000 election, it was virtually a tie between Bush and Gore for people under 45, middle aged people went for Bush by a point, and people over 60 went for Gore by a 4 point margin. (according to the CNN exit poll)


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: English on January 06, 2004, 06:07:09 AM
Very strange. In 2001 UK election, the over 65's voted for the Tories by a small margin. Labour's biggest voting bloc was the 18-25's if I remember correctly.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 08, 2004, 11:38:53 AM


Agreed.

Think USC is the best team by far.

and loved how the BCS failed!!! this year.  Always get some rep to come out and say see it worked, well they couldn't save face this year.

ok back to reality...

that may happen in this lifetime, LSU and OKL both looked terrible last night BTW.

I hate NASCAR.  And it isn't growing, it stopped growing when Earnhardt died.  You know what's growing?  College Football.  When we institute a lucrative playoff system, watch the people and the $$$ flow in.
But USC looked damn good against Michigan.  I like the old bowl system better, with the traditional conference matchups.  The BCS is BS.


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: jravnsbo on January 08, 2004, 11:39:48 AM
probably if you scroll up, you'll see you asked, what are you trying to tell me.

That if you 'work for a living', (a term I get from my dad, a huge nascar fan) the Democrat party is no longer for you.  You might not fit the snobbish view of America from million dollar manhattan apartments or the bastions of liberal/socialist thought and thus would be an embarrassment.

OK, I got that, I was just wondering why you were directing at me in a so specific way, like I needed to know this more than any other person on the board. But I find it easy to believe you, most communists have always been upper class. My dad comes from a working class family and he has always held open contempt for "spoiled upper-class kids" who were communists in 1968 movement (or later for that matter).


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Gustaf on January 08, 2004, 01:57:53 PM
Yes, but it seemed like he was trying to tell it ot me specifically, like I needed it more than someone else, so that's what I was wondering. I thought it was encompassed in my question, but it might have been badly phrased.

probably if you scroll up, you'll see you asked, what are you trying to tell me.

That if you 'work for a living', (a term I get from my dad, a huge nascar fan) the Democrat party is no longer for you.  You might not fit the snobbish view of America from million dollar manhattan apartments or the bastions of liberal/socialist thought and thus would be an embarrassment.

OK, I got that, I was just wondering why you were directing at me in a so specific way, like I needed to know this more than any other person on the board. But I find it easy to believe you, most communists have always been upper class. My dad comes from a working class family and he has always held open contempt for "spoiled upper-class kids" who were communists in 1968 movement (or later for that matter).


Title: Re:Gender gap
Post by: Beet on February 15, 2004, 06:43:47 PM
There's a good article on ABC News today about the myth of the NASCAR dad (and soccer mom for that matter).

Feb. 15 — The president's visit to Daytona this weekend raises inevitable discussions of the latest alleged swing voters, "NASCAR dads." We say: Throttle back.
...
Now it's NASCAR dads. Who are they? Depends whom you ask. According to ABCNEWS' Political Unit, they're "auto racing fan Democrats, usually anti-gun control, and tend to live in more rural areas of the country."

Professorial pundit Larry Sabato calls them "middle- to lower middle-class males who are family men, live in rural areas, used to vote heavily Democratic but now usually vote Republican."

To the NRA's Wayne LaPierre, they're "hard-working, average tax-paying Americans that are raising their families and putting their kids through school. They are patriotic. They own guns. They hunt, and they go shooting and they love the Second Amendment."

A CBS analysis specifies Southern and Midwestern suburban and rural white men. (Amusingly, only 41 percent of the CBS NASCAR dads said they were … fans of NASCAR.)

And the Wall Street Journal, citing the conjurer of this group, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, says they're "blue-collar fathers between 35 and 55 … culturally conservative but very populist."

Swing Voters?

When we run data from our recent polls we find that married, middle- and lower-income white men account for a single-digit share of the national population, and support President Bush in precisely the same proportion as all white men. (Make it rural white men, and it goes down to low single digits.) And white men, particularly Southern white men, are a solidly Republican group, highly unlikely to swing anywhere, anyhow.

For good measure, we checked rural, suburban or small city married white men with children and incomes under $50,000 in the 2000 exit poll. They accounted for 2 percent of all voters, and supported Bush over Gore by 70 percent to 27 percent. You really want to call this a swing voter group?

Give us a definition, we'll run the data. But we've seen it before: Take soccer moms, the group du jour in 1996. We found, when we analyzed the exit poll, that they made up a fragment of voters — 6 percent — and voted like all other moms — essentially like all other women.

In spring 2000 there was a new crop; the group du jour in one Washington Post article was "Midwestern non-union non-college-educated middle- and lower-income women." That one didn't catch on, probably because the name alone takes half a 30-second spot.

Classic Swing Voters

In our view, a swing voter group ought to fit two basic criteria — its majority vote ought to swing between between Democratic and Republican candidates from election to election; and it ought to be big enough to make a difference in the outcome.

In a close election like 2000, admittedly, any group could have made the difference. (And not just in Florida. Three thousand, six hundred and six votes in New Hampshire would have made the difference.)

But there are two classic swing voter groups in American politics — independents, and white Catholics. Win them, you're pretty sure to win the election: Ronald Reagan won independents and white Catholics in both his races. So did George H.W. Bush in 1988. Both groups swung to Bill Clinton in 1992, and he repeated with them in '96.