Talk Elections

divide the states up into 5 groups of 10 states based on how they will (likely) be classified in the year 2012.

the groups are as follow...remember 10 states in each group, no more no less

solid dem
lean dem
swing
lean rep
solid rep

you can also do this excercise in a map format.

That only will work if there are exactly 20 Republican states (half of them solid), exactly 20 Democratic states (half of them solid), and exactly 10 swing states.

yes.

i want it nice and neat.

you can rank them within the group also.

This doesn't work. I'd either have to divide it unevenly or give the democrats several states that would really be swing. I'll divide it unevenly (i'm a rebel!). No order within the group, either.

solid dem
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Vermont
Maryland
Illinois
California
Washington
DC

lean dem
New Jersey
Delaware
Maine
Oregon
New Hampshire
Hawaii

swing
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Virginia

lean rep
North Carolina
Tennessee
Arkansas
Arizona
Missouri
Florida
West Virginia

solid rep
Utah
Idaho
Wyoming
North Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Mississippi
Alabama
Louisiana
Georgia
South Carolina
Montana
Indiana
Kentucky
Alaska

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I used seven groups, but here you go:

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solid dem:

1. vermont
2. massachusetts
3. rhode island
4. new york
5. hawaii
6. california
7 washington
8. maine
9. minnesota
10. maryland

lean dem:
11. connecticut
12. oregon
13. new hampshire
14. illinois
15. delaware
16. michigan
17. nevada
18. new mexico
19. colorado
20. iowa

tossup:
21. wisconisn
22. new jersey
23. pennsylvania
24. ohio
25. arizona
26. florida
27. virginia
28. missouri
29. arkansas
30. south dakota

lean gop:
31. montana
32. north carolina
33. georgia
34. alaska
35. louisiana
36. indiana
37. west virginia
38. north dakota
39. tennessee
40. mississippi

solid gop:
41. texas
42. wyoming
43. south carolina
44. oklahoma
45. kentucky
46. alabama
47. kansas
48. nebraska
49. idaho
50. utah

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Not many ppl. followed your rules!  I tried to, but it's not easy (feel like it's to the Dems. advantage b/c we usually have to win fewer states to reach 270).
BTW, SD before NC!!! :(
(Maybe Herseth will run for pres.)

My 2 cents worth…

Solid Dem 

California – Though that won’t last forever IMHO.
Illinois
Maryland
New York
Delaware
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Vermont.
Hawaii
DC.

EV Total - 153

Lean Dem

Michigan
Maine
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Washington

EV Total - 51

Toss-Up

Arkansas     
Missouri
Iowa
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Ohio
West Virginia
Oregon
New Mexico
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Florida

EV Total - 153

Lean Rep

Montana
South Dakota
Georgia
Tennessee
Louisiana
North Carolina
Virginia
Kentucky

Ev Total - 77

Solid Rep

Texas
Utah
Indiana
Wyoming
Alaska
Idaho
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina

EV Total -  104 

 
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It looks like Democrats have two views of where they will make their gains - one, the frontier states (MT, WY, SD, CO, NV) and the other the Mississippi River states (MO, AR, IA) and/or rustbelt states (OH, WV, PA).

With the frontier states I would include the Eastern Seaboard (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, maybe even South Carolina).  I think these two go together because they are both getting immigrants from the Northeast and the Rust Belt.

This is the most likely map I have seen so far.  All things being equal though, I think New Jersey and Connecticut will be more competetive.

I agree with you on New Jersey.  If it were today's map, I would put New Jersey under the strong Democratic column, but now it's under the kind of strong column.  New Jersey was a 16 point margin in 2000, and a 6 point margin in 2004.  In 2008, I think it will be like a 10 point margin, and in 2012 it will be something like 6-8 point margin.  2004 was just the 9/11 effect, but I think there is a small Republican trend there.  Connecticut, however, I would disagree.  I think it's trending slightly Democratic.  By 2012, I think any Democrat would be able to garner at least 57% of the vote there easily.

I'm not sure why one would include the southern Atlantic seaboard states with the frontier, unless you mean Rust Belt states instead.

Frankly, as much as I would love to see Montana and South Dakota blue, the Rust Belt is a much more reasonable proposition.

I think the Eastern Seaboard and the Mountain West are fairly similar.  They both have a lot of immigration from the Rust Belt, causing them to develop similar politically in the future.  That's just my thinking anyway.

This is kinda counter-intuitive.  The people leaving the "rust-belt" states will likely be wealthier people.  The people who stay will either  have decent middle-class jobs, or be stuck there because of poverty.  I don't think this is going to happen, but using the model you propose, it is the most likely outcome.  Therefore, the people who leave are more likely to be libertarian minded individuals (also because of the fact that people who don't feel a connection to their roots, ie Libertarians, are more likely to leave) while those who stay are more likely to be more populist minded, with people continuing to split on economic and social issues.

I accept your outcome, because I think that the Democrats are going to start winning over more of the libertarians as time goes on.

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All things being equal, I think this is what the electoral map will look like in 2012.  I don't believe, however, that all things will be nearly equal.  Also, I think that 2012 will also be the breaking point of the current alignment and start our country off in a totally different direction.  I'll explain in what I invision happening over the next couple of days.

Pretty good, though I think Michigan is trending Republican.  Also, Illinois might have a very small Republican trend, but not like the one you put in there.  I also agree that Georgia will be getting closer, but I don't think it will be that changed by 2012.  New Mexico is a hard state to predict.  It all depends on how Hispanics trend.  I put it at slightly lean Dem, but your version seems completely plausible also.  As a side note, Pennsylvania will be a toss up if not slightly leaning towards the Republicans by 2012.

I don't seee much change in PA from slight Dem lean by 2012.  The Republican drifts in the wesy will continue to be canceled out by Dem shifts in the SE and the state as a whole willbbe little changed

But look at the overall trend of Pennsylvania.

It was closer than New York in 1984.
Dukakis only lost it by two points.
Clinton only did slightly better than his national average in 1996.
Gore won it by 4.
Kerry won it by 2.5.

I think there is a slight trend to the Republicans there.

1984 was an anomaly being Western PAs economy was nearing Depression status.  However the economy improved there and their socially conservative colors are now showing.  Southeastern PA now has unprecedented Democratic growth in areas that during Reagan were solidly Republican.  True, we slid compared to national averages, but I'd still say we are slightly more Dem than the average and the "Southeast 5" determines Pennsylvania's outcome.

Why do you think Connecticut will be more competitive, Supersoulty? 2004 was a fluke because of security concerns, otherwise CT has been one of the biggest Dem-trending states in the country.

I think there is an over-all trend in the suburbs that everyone needs to watch for, and it is not an overtly political one.

As the cities have expanded, the central city has boomed, declined, and now, in many places (esspecially New York) is enjoying another boom period (it is now considered very fashionable to live in the city, if you can afford it).  At the same time, the suburbs have continued to balloon further out.  The inner-suburbs, which were once fashsionable in the 1920'-50's are now expieriencing many of the problems that were once associated with the Central City, because they lack the infrastructure and vast amounts of wealth the inner-cities enjoy, and many of the people who once lived in the Central City are now being pushed out of there by property values that are once again on the rise.

This includes both lower-middle class white families and urban minorities.  This trend is most noticable in places like Newark, Patterson and Camden, which have all seen rapid decline in the past 20 years.

If what I think will happen, eventually, happens, then all of the areas where this occures (New Jersey and Conn. being the biggest) will start to drift towards the GOP.  The reason is, Republicans have made rapid advances with the White middle-class (lower, middle and, to a lesser extent upper), thus, those areas, in particular will see a noticable trend as is.  However, there is more at work here.  The movement of high crime to the inner-ring suburbs will increase the pro-law and order/pro-populist sentiment of those living in the middle and outter ring areas, which will cause them to go more steadily Republican. 

Also, in the Northeast, there has been a long standing animosity between blacks who have been in their area since prior to the Great Depression, and those who are new comers.  The well-established blacks think (and rightly so in many cases) that "new-comers" are largely the cause of many of the problems in the black community.  I'm not just supposing here, this is a big issue in Erie, and else where.  There is a clear divide forming in the black community.  As more of these "established blacks" start to lose their anti-Republican prejudice, they will come to realize that they have quite a bit in common with the Republicans on many issues, most noticably social issues.

New Jersey and Conn. have all of the factors I mentioned, in abundance.  Thus, my prediction.

To be honest... I'm not sure what the map will look like in 2006 (not a Presidential year but you know what I mean) or 2008, let alone 2012.
I do have an idea of possible outcomes though; will post tomorrow.

Thats a interesting theory. The issues within the black community may not apply to Connecticut at the present time, since we are very highly segregated by town. The overwhelming majority of blacks here (about 300,000 out of 3.5 Million) live in the 10 biggest cities. Even some of the inner suburbs are only 5% black. The housing costs will definetely become a factor though. The problems of the inner suburbs are currently more in effect in Nassau and Westchester counties (NY) than in Connecticut, since even our cities are small and to begin with.

not good for the dems..

Bump to look back and to post my own.

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Now of course, I have the benefit of knowing the two possible choices to be president(I picked Obama by the way), but still looking back on some of these maps is kinda funny.

I wonder what happens if McCain wins...

I can make a map for that too ;) :

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This is assuming a mediocre McCain presidency.

What do you think it would look like if Sen. McCain doesn't  run for another four years, and Gov(VP). Palin takes his place?

I am guessing the same.

Obama wins, has average first term:
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MCain wins, has average first term:
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My guesses at this time are-

Palin/Romney v. Warner/Sebelius

or

Obama/Biden v. Crist/Petreus

Simply a guess, but I think the states will look like this (this is w/o specific candidates):

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Sure, except for Upper MidWest.
So, here's mine (without any specific candidate, and I used 7 groups, as it's impossible to have even groups):
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2012 will not be a close election regardless of who wins this year.  Either the economy will turn around, in which case the new President's approval will soar, or the economy will continue to be sour, in which case the new President's approval will be in the dumps.  In either event look for a landslide in 2012.  And according to the most recent polls out, it is beginning to look like Obama will win this election comfortably as well (at least when compared to 2000 and 2004), although I don't think he will win it in a landslide.  With that said, I will make these predictions about 2012.  If Obama wins in November, and he has some success in his first term (i.e. the economy turns around & he has some legislative achievements), then look for his approval rating to exceed 60%.  In that event here's my prediction for 2012 assuming Obama wins in November:

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Electoral Vote
Obama   497
GOP         41

Popular Vote
Obama   58%
GOP       41%

On the other hand, if Obama is unsuccesful, and the economy continues to sour throughout his term, look for his approval ratings to tank & the GOP to win in a rout.  Here's the map under such a scenario:

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Electoral Vote
Obama  134
GOP      404

Popular Vote
Obama 43%
GOP     56%

If McCain pulls out an upset in November, my predictions for his chances in 2012 would be mirror images of my predictions for Obama, with the variable being whether or not McCain is able to succeed in the eyes of the American people.

solid dem
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
MASSACHUSETTS
CALIFORNIA
NEW YORK
ILLINOIS
DELAWARE
OREGON
HAWAII
MARYLAND
lean dem
MAINE
NEW JERSEY
CONNECTICUT
WASHINGTON
MINNESOTA
IOWA
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
NEW MEXICO
swing
OHIO
FLORIDA
NEVADA
VIRGINIA
COLORADO
MISSOURI
INDIANA
N. CAROLINA
N. HAMPSHIRE
W. VIRGINIA
lean rep
TENNESSEE
LOUISIANA
SOUTH CAROLINA
ARKANSAS
ARIZONA
GEORGIA
SOUTH DAKOTA
KENTUCKY
N. DAKOTA
MONTANA
solid rep
UTAH
IDAHO
WYOMING
ALABAMA
KANSAS
ALASKA
NEBRASKA
TEXAS
MISSISSIPPI
OKLAHOMA

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I see either Romney or Huckabee as the likely opponent, and which states vote which way depend upon who wins the GOP nomination:

Red --       Either Republican wins                      ( 36)
Blue --      Obama wins                                      (349)
Green --    Romney or Obama                            (  23)
Yellow --   Huckabee or Obama                          ( 93)
Gray --      real toss-ups, no matter who wins.  ( 24)

I could have shown maps of Huckabee vs. Obama and Romney vs. Obama... both are losing propositions for the Republican challenger because of the Blue firewall and the regional weaknesses of those two potential challengers. Huckabee has yet to show any ability to win outside the South, and Obama can win without the South. Romney has yet to show an ability to win in the South, and between the Blue firewall and any Obama wins in the South, Obama wins. Add the reds and greens (Huckabee is the GOP nominee... Obama 373+)  or the reds and yellows (Romney is the GOP nominee... 442+) and you get a landslide for Obama. 

It's far more interesting with Crist. See what I have to say about Crist's chances -- he will lose to Obama, but look good doing so, and be in good position to win in 2016:

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Obama     300
Crist         238

Incumbency has its advantages, and Obama will have his fine campaign machine of 2008 intact, even if Obama doesn't do much campaigning. California Democrats will be swarming all over Nevada and Arizona, if not also Colorado, and Virginia has become more like New Jersey than like Alabama in its politics. 

Crist looks as if he could perform as the one who could beat the Democratic nominee of 2016 should it be an unelectable Joe Biden or the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out contest in the primaries that leaves a bad taste in the mouths of enough Democrats and independents. Note well that winning 238 electoral votes against a strong incumbent is impressive in its own right.

Palin? I think that her foot-in-the-mouth disease will knock her out early. Her rhetoric is absolutely dreadful. If she did win the GOP nomination she would energize the base and offend everyone else:

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She could lose Texas, with a young, rapidly-urbanizing electorate and large minority populations. In 2008 she appealed to the base and lost all else. I see her losing early to Huckabee, whose voters fit roughly the same demographics, Romney, or Crist.

Somewhat simple in colors. The darker the color, the more likely I predict it being safe. No toss-ups, since, that's sucky...
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Wyoming was McCain's second best state.

Most to least Dem
D.C
Vermont
Massachussets
Rhode Island
Hawaii
New York
Illinois
Maryland
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington
New Jersey
Maine
Pennsylvania
Michigan
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Nevada
Iowa
Virginia
Colorado
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Missouri
Ohio
West Virginia
Indiana
Montana
Georgia
Kentucky
South Dakota
North Dakota
Nebraska
Alaska
Arkansas
Texas
South Carolina
Mississippi
Louisiana
Tennessee
Kansas
Alabama
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Oklahoma

It's a bit soon to say what will happen in the next four years. It depends probably to Obama economic results against crisis. However, I saw that his term began very well and the stimulous bill who was recently voted by the congress seems being able to improve economic situation. At least, I hope so.

So, here is my prediction, based only on past election results

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