Talk Elections

Steele 45
Cardin 40

Steele 45
Mfume 38

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Senator%20January%2010.htm

Ehrlich 47
O'Malley 42

Ehrlich 50
Duncan 41

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Governor%20January%2010.htm

Fairly hard to believe, but we'll see what happens.

The GOP milked that phony "Oreo cookie" story for all that it was worth, and maybe that has something to do with it.

Rule #1 - never give republicans an excuse to vote for their candidate.

The last Rasmussen poll in November had Cardin beating Steele 49% to 41%, and this poll has Steele ahead of Cardin 45% to 40%. Those results are pretty baffling. I would love to see the crosstabs.

MoE?

I also noted that they had Steele totally overtaking Cardin but not increasing his lead on Mfume much ... yet what little internals they published in that press release is all on Steele heavily increasing his share of the Black vote in the matchup vs Mfume. Something's wrong here.
 

This would be such a blow if we lost both races.

Won't happen. I definitely think Cardin will win the Senate race and O'Malley has a 50% chance to beat Ehrlich.

it better not. i've heard steele speak a couple of times and hes stuck up bushs bottom. Rhode island is looking increasingly bad. Florida just needs to get rid of Harris and Santorum could do it. We could win Missouri, Montana, Ohio but they are all unlikely especially when we start getting close.

and to make it worse, Bob Ney could still get re-elected.

Not gonna happen. 

Im pretty much speechless.  Nothing that major has happened since the last round of polling to cause a swing like this. 

Maybe Im just underestimating Ehrlich and Steele as candidates...?

I wouldn't worry too much. I think the poll is bogus. To have a 13% swing in less than two months when neither candidate has really started campaigning is crap.

This poll is way off from every other Maryland poll, which have all shown Cardin leading by at least 4% or 5%. I would take these numbers with a huge grain of salt.

Nick, have you done any work for the Cardin campaign yet?

I did some work for him a couple months ago.  I was actually working every Friday, but I stopped towards the end of my semester because of finals and I was in the process of transfering schools.  As the campaign begins to heat up Ill give him some more of my time.

Ramussmen seems to have had a bunch of outliers.  Montana earlier had a massive shift with no real explanation.  I wouldn't be surprised if this was the same.

The GOP is playing for keeps in Maryland. Right now Dems are probably hurt in the polls by virtue of their division (i.e. both primaries are contested for the Democrats, neither is contested for the GOP).

Still, it would be unwise to underestimate the GOP ticket in Maryland.

1 in 20, even in a perfect world, folks.

Also, Rasmussen is mostly doing one day flash polls, and they should always, even if you like the results, be taken with a grain of salt.

Still, a major pollster putting out good news for the GOP in Maryland has to boost some spirits.  

The only real surprise to me is Cardin dropping from 49 to 40.  I can buy Steele solidifying to 45%.  He managed to spin the Oreo story for all it was worth, as Scoonie pointed out.  Still, that should not have hurt Cardin much.  

Was there something negative about him I missed?  Mfume running a lot of negative ads?

Also, Lewis, Steele and Mfume were tied in November, so there was a decent swing in that race as well.  It is back in July that the Steele-Mfume numbers were similar to now.

Whatever that means?

No ads from any campaign, yet.  However, there has been a ton of stories in the Baltimore Sun and WaPo regarding the establishment trying to push Mfume out of the race.  Maybe blacks are getting fed up?

Like I said, nothing that major has happened since the last round of polling to justify these numbers.

Actually now that I think about... Ehrlich and Steele have been getting a ton of good press lately.  Ehrlich recently pledged a ton of money to the Univsersity of Maryland.  He also proposed a 15% reduction in state property taxes.  And just yesterday he agreed to spend 100 million+ on Stem Cell research.

Maybe thats it?

Not true. Burns has been getting hit hard about his Abramoff connections and corruption charges for a few months now and has shown weakness for a while.

Perhaps the GOP strategy to turn Maryland into a Republican state is working?  I have to say I'm horrified; if the Democrats can't retain open Senate seats in MN, MD and NJ, then we won't gain at all.

It is worrisome, I agree.  It seems that as bad off as the Democratic Party is, we haven't yet touched bottom. 

Didn't somebody say that the GOP reached its 'zenith' in terms of power and influence in the 2004 elections?  ::)

I said something to that effect and I certainly stand by it.

No, of course not. The MD Senate seat will stay Democratic in 2006.

Don't let one outlier poll worry you. This poll is way, way off from every other poll.

I think I said that as well.  The important thing to remember is that, in any poll in January of election year, you can depend that the result in November will be different.  I predict that Cardin will defeat Steele in the Senate race at least.  I think the GOP's zenith has come: 2006 will be our year on the Congressional level.

No way, we're on the upswing my pessimistic friend.

Except this is the first poll showing them ahead in Maryland and all show us ahead in Minnesota and New Jersey. Actually from current signs it appears we have hardly anything to worry about in Minnesota and New Jersey.

The GOP is going to put a lot of resources into Maryland. The GOP has an incumbent governor and its strongest possible Senatorial candidate. In other words, they're giving it their best shot.

Whether that will be good enough is obviously unclear, as of now I think Ehrlich will win narrowly and Cardin will as well. I also think Steele might be a better candidate than he appears on paper, because he is very articulate and has more charisma than the technocratic Cardin. Mfume is a non-issue because, as I've said all along, he can't win the Dem nomination.

If he did, the Democrats would lose both races without a doubt. But there's no chance he gets it.

Whenever a poll comes out that shows the Democrats surging ahead, the partisan Democrats on this board say that it's clear evidence of a breakthrough, and the race is in the bag.  But if a poll comes out that shows a significant Republican jump, then it's just one poll, and probably based on faulty methodology.

The partisan Republicans are just as guilty, I guess.

^^^^^^^^^^  And sometimes more than that, depending on the quality of the pollster.

I can't really say too much regarding any changes in the Senate race that could lead to the result above.

However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

That's about the only secondary evidence I can find that might back anything up, since pretty much no one but Rasmussen (and Gonzales Research much earlier) has polled this race in quite a while.

The key fact being that this poll is way different than all the other polls in this race, especially given that no campaigning has been going on. In the Senate race, it's a 13% swing in less than two months during a very quiet time of year.

Maybe these results are legitimate. We will see.

True.  I posted the poll on my blog 2 days ago.  Ehrlich's approval jumped to 53% and his disapproval dropped to 36%. 

Just as a side note:  The Steele camp sent out an email a week or so ago that stated his internal polling has him tied with Cardin.  I find it kind of hard to believe that Steele's internals have him tied with Cardin, yet Rasmussen has Steele +5%.  With that said, I really, really want to get my hands on the crosstabs from this poll.  My gut says they underpolled Democrats.  Remember we have a 2 to 1 party registration advantage here in MD.

I tend to agree.  And thanks for the poll reference.  I should read your site more often.  :)

However, I'm pretty sure that we both realize that if Ehrlich's JA numbers have improved to 53% (SUSA had him at 49% in December), his poll numbers probably have as well.  The question is, by how much.

Senate race, I can't say much.  At least not without more polling.  Steele's comment is interesting, no idea what it means it the larger scheme, except that he thinks he's probably behind by a slight amount.

I agree.  He's actually been getting a ton of positive press lately.  Like I pointed out earlier in the thread.  He recently pledged a ton of money to the public universities... Pledged millions to stem cell research... and proposed a 15% reduction in state property taxes.  Im actually beginnining to doubt our chances against him.  The state is in good shape, very low unemployment rate, solid job creation, budget surplus.  He's really not doing THAT bad of a job.  ;)

Steele's numbers on the other hand are shocking.  A 14% swing in a matter of months?  Eh, Maybe he's riding Ehrlich's coattails?

Synergy  baby.

Joe pretty much nailed it. While I said all along that I think Erlich is gonna survive, I don't expect the senate seat to go GOP. In Maryland, of all places, a senate election should be easy for the Democrats to win.

I was hoping Rasmussen's gubernatoral flash polling would be as good as its 2004 presidential polling.  Evidently, no such luck.

I could buy Missouri.  Montana made me suspicious.  This confirms my worst fears.

It could be right, but it sure don't look it.

Flash polling has inherent flaws.  It is really not good.  Still, he is giving a constant stream of data.  I just wish it was higher quality data.

Can you hear the Imperial March Democrats?


Dun dun dun duh dun duh dun duh duh


Seems the democrats have thrown every attack and pulled every trick in thier dusty old playbook and still are trailing badly, what shall you do now?

Join us, and together we shall rule the Galaxy as Father and Son....

Are we now ignoring the flaws of flash polling for partisan reasons?

No for reasons of fun

Ah, OK.  It's all good.

Just wait until election day, when the Democrats will be up 643% in Montana at this rate!

This blows.  Or it's dead wrong.  Or both.

Steele 45% Cardin 40% (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Senator%20January%2010.htm)

Dead wrong.  Steele is consistently hyped up by the Republican Party as their Barack Obama.  He's not gonna cut it in the election.  Cardin will win handily.

That only similarity I see is....they're both black...

Charismatic, articulate, former lawyers...

It's hardly farfetched that Steele could win.  He was elected on a statewide ticket and is looked upon rather favorably by many MD voters.  If Dorgan and Conrad manage to keep winning in the deep red state of North Dakota, it's not out of the question that someday the reverse can happen.

Then I guess you would agree its hardly farfetched that Ford could win in TN?

Here's a bizarre scenario...

Lets just assume for a second that Steele and Ehrlich win in 2006.  In 2010 Mikulski is likely to retire, which means Ehrlich would be the heavy favorite to replace Mikulski in 2010.

Maryland would go from a state that has not elected a Republican Senator since 1986 to possibly having two Republican Senators in 2010.  Make that two Conservative Republican Senators.  Senator Mathias was an extremely liberal Republican, so he really doesnt count.  The last time Maryland elected a true conservative was Senator John Marshall Butler, who served from 1951-1963.

Stranger things have happened.

Also, Ford is not in Steele's league.

Sure he is.

Both are charismatic, good looking, black guys w/ strong establishment support.  Both are rising stars in their respective parties.  Both are running for Senate in states that have a problem with the letter that follows their name (R & D).  The only real difference between the two is, Ford is a moderate to conservative Democrat running in a conservative state.  Where Steele is a conservative Republican running in a liberal state.  Obviously Ford has the ideological advantage..  The only real advantage Steele has over Ford is, an extremely short resume, which means he can make up his platform as he goes.

One more thing, if we're taking this poll seriously we must also take the Rasmussen TN poll seriously in which Ford was leading all, but one potential challenger.

Totally incorrect. Ford already has the black vote but that isn't enough in TN, actually the fact he's black probably hurts him, plus his dad is a criminal.

Steele only has to make modest gains among black voters, combined with a solid backing from the existing GOP base, to win. He is older than Ford and thus comes across as a more appropriate candidate for the Senate. Steele has won at the statewide level, unlike Ford.

There is practically no chance Ford wins. Steele probably has a 20% chance at worst, maybe as high as 40% depending on various underlying factors that cannot be accurately accounted for at this time. There is no comparison.

note: clearly, identity politics matter. In this case, they obviously favor Steele, because his racial status opens the door to a massive voting bloc, some of which he probably will tap, whereas Ford already has maxed out his support (basically Democrats like him).

About this whole Ford/Steele thing, my point would be is that Ford has a larger base of support (in Democrats) he can tap into at present, but Tennessee demographics will hurt him expanding beyond that point. 

Simply put, the black population in Tennessee is not that big and I still don't see how Ford, from Memphis, picks up the votes in Nashville and Central Tennessee to get above 45%, above that base of support I mention.  If he was from Central Tennessee, I would be singing a different tune, obviously, but a black man from western Tennessee.  I don't think it's ever happened in the state honestly (Al can correct me if I'm wrong).

Steele has a smaller base of support in Maryland (a little over 40%), but his being black means that he has a larger potential group of voters (in the black vote), that if he somehow connects with, he can gain votes.  I personally doubt that will happen, but he seems to be a fairly smart, articulate black GOP candidate and that is a variable I haven't seen in Maryland recently at least.  Alan Keyes does not count towards that.  :P

We have seen most polls lean towards Democratic candidates in 2006.  This is why I am sceptical about Steele's chances in Maryland; a blue state in a blue year electing a Republican?  I can envisage Ehrlich holding on in a close race; he then could conceivably run for the Senate in 2010 if Mikulski retires. 

Someone made a point about North Dakota, but I think the difference between ND and MD is that the former is a local state; every candidate is well known there and people are generally re-elected by large margins.  MD's African American and white liberal Democratic base mean it is harder for generic Republicans to win here.  Much like in the South, where Democrats can win Governor's races but often fall short in Senate races, i.e. Inez Tenenbaum (SC 2004) 44%; and Erskine Bowles (NC 2004) 47%.  2004 was clearly a Republican year, probably unlike this one.  Therefore, I feel that Cardin, who is a generic establishment Democratic candidate, can defeat Steele in 2006.  Steele may well get between 44% and 47% in MD, but that is why I feel he is unlikely to win.

Also, at one point wasn't Rep. Chris Van Hollen meant to be running in the Democratic primary also?

Lets hope Maryland continues a rightward swing. This would be excellent news considering how horrible and decerpit it's become under the thumb of the Democrats.

He dropped out months ago.  He'll run in 2010.

Let's just say I'm more optimistic about the Democrats holding the Senate seat than I'm of their chances to defeat Ehrlich

Once the primary is done and dusted,  perhaps Democratic polling fortunes against Steele will improve. This, of course, assumes a Cardin primary victory

Dave

Rasmussen had a tie between Hillary Clinton and Lazio right before election day 2000.

One thing I'm not sure about ... if the Reps nominate a Black man, is Cardin still much more electable than Mfume? In a Cardin vs Steele race, there is always a risk for the Reps of a racist backlash in the rural parts of the state (low turnout, more likely than actually voting for the Democrat), and that's what the theory is obviously based on. But given Maryland's demographics - overwhelmingly suburban, large middle class Black population that might be swayed to vote for a Republican who's one of them against a Dem who's not - and given the fact that some of the abovementioned people might not vote in an all-Black Senate race either (it's not a presidential year after all)...
Now, if the Republican candidate were White, I'd go with Cardin...

Ive heard that some parts of Maryland (Frederick and Eastern Shore) have a large KKK following.  Not sure if it will make much of an impact though.  Heck, Im not even sure if those people vote.

They'd probably vote Democrat. (In all seriousness) Most of those sort that I have either read or run into are very populist-liberal economically.