Talk Elections

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Arkansas%20Governor%20January%2015.htm

Mike Beebe        46%
Asa Hutchinson  40%

Iread this a couple of hours ago. Isnt it great?

If you needed any proof that rasmussen is a republcian nut who follows trends rather than do his own work then this is it. Its like they are disappointed that beebe leads. but when steele leads its GOP Maryland Gains but the numbers are virtually the same.

You're somewhat right. Scott Rasmussen is a registered Republican whose analysis tends to be Republican-biased.

However, he has proven to be one of the most reliable pollsters around. I still think that Maryland poll released last week was way off, though.

Still we know that a Beebe lead of 6 in Arkansas is more likely than a Steele lead of 5 in Maryland.

The last two polls on this race (one was an earlier Rasmussen poll) both had Beebe up by a similar margin.

Excellent Beebe is turning out to be a far more credible and competitive candidate than a lot of people initially gave him credit for, once the campaign really gets started in the summer and fall I think this contest will remain very tight and with any luck Beebe will be sufficiently secure by then so that Huckabee’s efforts don’t have to much of an effect.   

I really don't trust a poll that lists Beebe and Hutchinson as candidates for Maryland Senator.  What little credibility Rasmussen had with me is now eliminated.  If they can't get the state and office right, how possibly can their numbers be accurate?  Perhaps that explains their strange Maryland results, actually; they could have just reversed the numbers in their sloppiness.

EDIT: Looking through the Rasmussen site, there are TONS of errors, both typos, mis-labeling of races, misleading statements, and statements that are just wrong.  I'm no longer giving these people any credence.

Good catch!

Hahaha, I never even noticed that.

Interesting.

Bush's job approval in Arkansas is 38% (according to Survey USA).

I think that Arkansas has grown sick of Bush. Asa Hutchinson's only real experience in a leadership position was working for George W. Bush.

For reference: The last SUSA survey had 90% of Arkansas Democrats disapproving of Bush's job performance, compared to 7% of Arkansas Democrats approving of Bush's job performance. In Massachusetts, the breakdown is 88/9 disapprove amongst Massachusetts Democrats.

In conclusion: Arkansas Democrats dislike Bush even more than Massachusetts Democrats.

So yes, Mike Beebe v. Asa Hutchinson shall be an interesting race.

But I'm going to guess that Beebe has the upper hand.

To be fair, Hutchinson is an experienced politician and would probably not do a poor job as Governor of Arkansas.  However, Beebe will have a definite edge as the state has had a Republican Governor since 1994.  Who is Lieutenant Governor and why are they not a candidate for either party nomination?

Win Rockefeller was pursuing the Republican nomination but withdrew from the race after he was diagnosed with cancer.

perhaps because a large number of arkansas democrats tend to be black?

a large number of massachusetts democrats tend to be catholic and blue collar...two groups bush has done well with over his term.

Actually, Arkansas Democrats went 82/18 for Kerry.

And the African-American population of Arkansas isn't really that large.

You must have sat out 2000.

Or, perhaps he was paying attention in 2004.

What were his polls for 2000 like?  Shame about Rockefeller I hope he soon recovers.  Maybe he can run in 2010 if Beebe does win or run for the Senate in that year or 2008.

Waste if time for anyone to challenge Pryor or Lincoln... hell Pryor won in 2002 against an incumbent! (Dems forget about that win). 

They sure do.  Arkansas has always been ripe for the picking.  It would obviously be easier to win Arkansas in a national election than Florida.  Except for that NW corner, the state is Dems.--if they want it.  It also doesn't look to be losing EV's--at least in the next 30 years.  This is one of the few states in the entire country where a Democrat can win a majority of whites...and they don't have to be bigots to do it.

Less than elsewhere in the South. AR is easily the state with the largest remaining White Religious Democrat vote.

Interesting analysis.  Could Kerry have carried it in 2004 with persistent targeting?  I see what you mean as the Democrats seem to have a strong base here, stronger than in some Northern states which still voted for Kerry.

I think yes ... the question is, would it have been worth the expense? I think no.

Rasmussen blew up in 2000, over-sampling Republicans, I think it was and predicting a Bush win by 6% or something like that.

Going into Election 2000, Rasmussen Reports credited twelve states to Gore-Lieberman.

Yes, twelve.

Hutchinson just doesn't have a lot of appeal outside of Northwest Arkansas, which he represented for his time in Congress.  Win Rockefeller would have been, but Asa Hutchinson isn't.

Also, I just got an email from the Arkansas Democratic Party that Bill Halter, a former Clinton administration official, is going to challenge Beebe in the primary.

He's set up a website: billhalter.com

I hope they both run a pretty clean campaign, I don't our side to get hurt by a primary battle.