Talk Elections

Franklin and Marshall (http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/regional/s_422413.html):

PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR
Ed Rendell (D) 45%
Lynn Swann (R) 42%

Another black Republican star emerges.

The GOP needs more candidates like Swann, and more candidates like Brooke (who goes back a ways), Watts, Steele, Blackwell, and more officials like Powell, Rice.

Does anyone have any idea where Swann stands on the issues? I looked on his website and there's nothing.

So far, his main issues have been abortion and his 10 point economic plan.

Where can I read about those?

Atleast Swann isnt ahead like the last few polls. It scares me that nobody knows what Swann stands for. He could turn out to be a right wing nut. Well, Its not my state.

He is a clone of his father.

Well, we have had Swann ahead by 2 and 3 points in two polls and Rendell ahead by 3 in this one.  Also, roughly the same undecided numbers on all polls.  All looks like MOE movement to me.

If there's ever a race that counts as being a toss-up at this point, ten months away from an election, it is this one.  :)

exactly. I hate Casey because of this.

As for the race, it should be a good one.

If Swan is a social conservative, he is the biggest threat to the Dems other than John McCain.

If Swan wins PA, and the 2008 GOP nominee picks Swan as his running mate, the Dems can kiss 2008 goodbye!!!

Why the Hell would they choose Swann? That just seems like a bad pick up to me. It would be like the Dems taking Spitzer for VP. It wouldnt work.

Swann is a black.  If Republicans get 20% of the black vote in a presidential election, they cannot lose.

1) He is known to 90% of Americans over the age of 35.
2) He has a great personality.
3) His respect among NFL fans gives him credability across party lines.
4) He would be the governor of PA, a blue state.
5) He is black and could give the GOP 20-35% of the black vote.
6) He is a natural born leader and people are awestruck by him.

...7) He is a WINNER and americans love winners.

awestruck? wow, thats the worst word ive ever seen to describe peoples feelings of Lynn Swann. Anyway, I still think that A) He wont get chosen to be VP B) It wouldnt work out if he was.

50 million Americans saw that man, on live TV, give the greatest performance ever witnessed on a football field in Jan 1976 during Super Bowl X.

---


a) Yes, the GOP may not be smart enough to choose him as VP.
b) I don't see how it couldn't work.

I'm a supporter of Swann, but let's cut back on the euphoria a bit.  This is early.

The euphoria is based on a Swann win in Nov...IF, a big if...IF he wins the Governorship, then he would be a huge nightmare to Dems IF (another big IF) he is the GOP VP candidate in 2008.

The euphoria has nothing to do with his chances this november.

I just think it's a bit early to extend things out.  I expect a close election.

Well, if Swann is going to win, he'd better get fundraising. He is facing a "supeman" fundraiser in Ed Rendell, who is no campaign trail slouch. Swann has yet to show a theme, an issue, or even a real reason why he wants to be Governor, and that can be a liability down the stretch.

Also, the pay-raise has made the state Republican party unpopular, as well as the Democrats who voted with them. Rendell needs to overcome that negative backlash.

Overall, hard to say, but it'll be a close one.

He has a real chance of winning this election. If he does, 2008 is too soon, but he instantly would be on the fast track to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave (ironic, no?)

If the Democrats win the White House in 2008, especially, he probably would become the favorite for the 2012 nomination, assuming reelection in 2010. A 2008 GOP win complicates the issue somewhat, unless McCain wins and only serves one term because of his age and health.

Obviously, it's very early. But Swann, if he turns out to be a capable politician (which is impossible to know yet), could be a star. Again.

If Swann wins, it is by no means too early to talk about him at the bottom of the ticket in 2008.

I can't imagine a Governor beginning his service in 2007 would leave it mid-way through 2008. Condi Rice is the likely VP pick at this point, IMO.

I'd say something about this, but after thinking about and considering George W. Bush's fast-track to the presidency, I won't.

In all fairness, Casey did announce his support for Alito but it was after a long silence on the issue. Other than that, Casey doesn't say much. If he thinks he can win the race by just keeping his mouth shut then he has another thing coming to him.

As for the Gubernatorial race here, Rendell is obviously a lock still. Where are you Smash, Flyers, danwxman, other hacks...?

Phil, we know you're here.  I don't know about the other hacks.

Um, let's not inaugurate the guy until he wins the election.

Tell us more, oh knowledgable one, about how Rendell will cruise into a second term. I'm able to admit when my hero is in trouble; you do the same with one of your's. For the first time we will see an incumbent Governor of PA facing problems in his bid for re-election. Face it - Eddie isn't loved anymore!

In the Southeast, he's more than fine, hell he's still God.  People in the west are just jealous and I can't answer for that so they have to pick their sports hero to counter. 

Wow, this thread has developed a very serious case of Hackism. :(

I'll admit at this point this race is shaping up to be closer than I originally thought.  However, what will happen when Swann is seen to be more conservative than most people believe he is?   Not to mention even with this race shaping up at this point to be closer, Rendell still has ten times the chance to win than Swann does.  Not to mention the simple fact no one has won a statewide race in PA without covering the PPA suburbs.  And before you go off into your rant on how their is more to the state, quite simply no one has won the state without the Philly burbs & that is  something Rendell has locked down

Exactly.  I'm not even saying its good or bad to fast-track the guy, but if he wins, he will be fast tracked and end up on any GOP shortlist for VP.

I should point out that GW Bush was elected in Texas in 1994 and reelected in 1998.

With Bush that was 6 yers, not two.  not to mention the edge he has because of his father being a VP for 8 years & Pres for four years, something Swann doesn't have. I don't think Swann will win, but even if he does, being Govenor for two years is not nearly enough to make him on the short list for 08

Yeah, so he had basically five and a bit years of experience when he started his campaign.  That's one more year than Mark Warner has, and I've heard tons of people say that his lack of extensive elected experience is one of his biggest weaknesses.

It wasn't as little experience as Swann would have were he made the VP nominee in 2008, but you have to admit that it was still very little, comparatively speaking.  To my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), the only person elected President of the United States with less elected experience than George W. Bush was Jimmy Carter, who had only four years as governor of Georgia (excluding the very early presidents, of course).

There is also the issue that this is the presidential slot we're talking about.  People would probably care less about the experience of the guy in the VP slot if the person in the presidential slot had a lot.

Why should this election be as close as it appears to be from early polls?  Rendell has not done spectacularly badly as Governor, has he?  Is it because Swann has a lot of positives; attracting black support, a celebrity non-political figure?

This just proves that SE PA does not dictate what happens all the time. Your hero was never as popular as you believed and now people have someone to rally behind to end his time as Governor. We're talking about an incumbent Governor losing his bid for re-election in Pennsylvania...but keep thinking that everything is ok because SE PA loves him.

By the way, you love to mock westerners/Swann supporters because Swann is a sports hero yet a lot of people around here admire Rendell because he's an Eagles guy and can take a few pictures while eating a cheesesteak. This certainly doesn't go one way.



Before you spew your stupidity (too late, I guess) please inform me of the last time that western and central PA has gotten so excited over a challenger/disliked the incumbent so much. It's not as simple as your simple mind would like it to be.

He hasn't done anything terribly bad or very good. All in all, he's been a mediocre governor and has mainly failed to deliver on the big PA issue, property tax reform.


Right now, Swann's upsides are showing, mainly his charisma, name recognition, and newness to the political scene. Once the campaign gets going, I'd expect his negatives to become apparent, especially his lack of policy background.

Folks, be fair.  Gubernatoral candidates being exceedingly open about issues is not exactly standard.  That's why Democrats win in Wyoming, and Republicans win in Massachusetts.  They run on a platform of economic improval and state issues, not on abortion and gay marriage.

^^^^^^^

Thank you.  That's one of the few really intelligent statements I've heard on this board in weeks.

That makes a dent, but still does not make up for the fact that NO ONE has EVER won the state without the Philly burbs (when I say burbs I mean within the last 50 years or so, not when most of SEPA was rural).  Its not the only part of the state, but electionwise it is VERY VERY important.

Bump this point.  That's why I'm still reluctant to endorse him.

Excellent post. And that may be Swann's problem. So far, it looks like his platform is basically going to be the Republican party platform. Because, as he said, "I don't have any ideas, I don't need any ideas"...I don't think that will win him the election.

Smash, that's kinda my point.  Being Governor for two years is not the best position to be in on the national ticket.  If elected and re-elected, it is, but there is still a long way to go.

And a few more Alan Keyes' wouldn't go a miss either ;)

Dave