Talk Elections

The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in the Sunshine State suggests that Republican Representative Katherine Harris has improved recently as the state GOP has rallied round her.  She now wins the support of 77% of Republicans, up from 59% in the last poll.  Nelson has the backing of 77% of Democrats.  However, Nelson's margin over Harris is wide amongst Independent voters, he leads 64%-18% over his challenger.  While Harris' approval has improved from 34% to 44%, her disapproval is at a relative high of 40%.  Nelson, on the other hand, has the approval of 53% of Floridians compared to 27% who disapprove of their senior Senator. 

Florida has a very strong GOP party, but Nelson will kill Harris among Independents and Democrats.

Harris is a weak canidate.

That is the long and short of it.  Harris can win if she runs a picture perfect campaign or if Nelson manages to alienate a large voter block.  Nelson is very likely going back for another term.

If Harris wasn't trashed by the GOP for the better part of a year, she would be polling better (though this latest poll has her doing decently). She's not a great candidate but her unfavorables are kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A candidate with unified Republican support in Florida is going to be at least somewhat competitive. "Independents" are not really relevant-- few voters truly are independent. Those that are turn out at low rates. However, the "independents" that lean one way or another-- i.e. they actually vote-- are important and represent a decent chunk of the electorate.

In Harris' case, it's too late to actually turn the situation around... but she can at least avoid hurting Republicans running for other offices.

Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.         

This is simply a hypothetical match-up by a polling firm that historically gives a greater margin to Republicans than Democrats.  I never claimed that Nelson would only win 77%, thats what the poll states. OK?

If voter turnout in N. Florida is heavy they will outvote the southern part of the state pretty handily. And you must remember that Kerry didn't carry Miami by very much as compared to past Democratic candidates. FL is most definately trending GOP.

I suppose if it's any consolation, she's polling closer to her Democrat opponent than Santorum is to his.

I think she actually has a decent chance of winning. She has a lot of backing by the farmers being that her father was a BIG time agriculture man. If she gets the farmers and religious folks behind her then her chances will increase greatly.

The only Democratic candidate in the past seven presidential elections to do better than John Kerry in Miami-Dade was Bill Clinton in 1996.

She will not be able to win if she cant get the Independent vote.  Otherwise, this poll is great news for Harris when comparing her poll numbers from this month to last month.

Many of the "independents" around here are very conservative minded. I don't know how they are wherever you live at in FL. Plus the great majority of registered Democrats here vote Republican.

If she develops a get out the vote effort near the caliber of Bush's in 2004, she can defintely win.

Ah! You live in New Cuba then. :)

Will the last American out please take the flag?

I don’t doubt it States I said in the past that Harris will always avoid a significant defeat to Nelson because of the strength of the GOP base… the thing is that unlike much of the rest of the south she needs Independents and she won’t win amongst them while at the same time Nelson will dominate his own base and win amongst Independents by a clear margin.

Then there’s the issue of cash… of which Harris has very little and Nelson a great deal. In the end she’ll probably be stuck at 42-44% against Nelson, if she where to win it would be a significant upset, and as you suggest would no doubt be caused by a huge GOP turnout and a very weak Dem turnout, the chances of which are slim at the moment.       

It's probably too early to consider this race absolutely over. :( But States, N Florida to outvote S Florida? That very much depends on where you draw the dividing line I suppose ... but to not be a risible claim you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.

Isn’t the Tampa area Nelson’s old congressional district and pretty much his political base in the state? While the area has trended GOP Nelson still has a sizable personal vote there and I’d put the chances of a good performance there by Harris as pretty close to zero… baring the scenario I outlined above where GOP turnout massively outweighs that of Democrats and Independents.         

Rasmussen keeps returning poll results that are feasible, but just don't quite seem right.  It's bothering me.

Well, it is Florida. 

This means that any poll at any given time could simply be dead wrong.

Tampa proper is likely to go Dem of course but probably not by much. Out here in the eastern part of the county she would likely win by 50-52%. Also, Harris' home district is in the next county down from me so Nelson and Harris are basically neighbors. Pinellas county is unpredictable though it recently has had the tendency to elect Republicans. They have a popular mayor (Rick Baker) and the county swung towards Bush in 2004.

I'm not sure how the money issue will affect Harris. Harris herself is rather wealthy due to a large inheritance from her father who was a big time farmer. I don't know how that affects her race if any.

I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.

I had been hoping Jeb would run.  If he did, he would probably win over Nelson.  The GOP should have worked hard to get him in the race but instead, they let the race slip away.

the michigan senate race will be closer than this one

I am aware that Jeb Bush has refused to run for president, but I do not recall him ruling out running for any other office -though perhaps you have a better memory than I do.  And assuming he has ruled out running for any future office, he still has until May 12 (the federal filing deadline) to change his mind.  The fact that Katherine Harris is floundering must be making some impression on him..... 

It would be in his best interest not to run for Senate if he wants a shot at the presidency. Senators have a very very bad record of presidential runs. I doubt he'll challenge Harris, his support for her is pretty well known.

Bump. This is for the hacks like Deano and those in that other thread who are quoting a thread wayy back in Febuary. Lets' read the WHOLE thread and then discuss how things have changed. KTHXBYE

Bump. This is so everyone knows just how stupid hacks like StatesRights are.


LOL - The 'great majority'of registered democrats in FL vote republican huh? That definitely explains why Bush's margin of victory in the state was less than 600 votes in 2000.

I thought Jeb 'threw Harris under the bus' as you put it? If his support for her is so great and he was not running for the seat, why would he say that she can't win?


She was down in the polls by around 30 points well before he said that my friend. Your little theory is simpley wrong and not supported by that facts. This race would NOT have been closer no matter what Jeb did. Just admit your entire premise is wrong and shut the hell up about this race - IT'S OVER. On November 8th Harris will be FORMER Congressowman and political roadkill, which is what she deserves.

Wrong again fool. Go look at the registration stats for the state of Florida.

Because he said this in June of this year..if you can read you can clearly see that I said this back in FEBRUARY!!! The name of the game is awareness.

And that matters why? You still haven't explained how him not saying that would have helped. She was hopelessly down long bfore he said that.

If he had thrown his full support behind her it's quite obvious she would be a lot closer then she is at this current point. Seriously now, how can you deny that fact?

Why is it obivous? It's not a fact b/c you say it is.

Didn't you hear james? She suffered a head-on collision with a Revlon truck.

Whoa, I actually thought this Rasmussen poll was recent and was perplexed by how Harris was able to make such a big comeback.

Ditto and it was me who originally posted this thread...!

You don't think a governor with a 59% approval rating would have any effect on Harris' chances? You can't possibly be that hackish.

A GREAT governor can swing the statewide vote maybe 1%-2%(maximum) in his party's direction through extremely effective use of his position of Governor to promote the candidate and give them positive exposure.

A semi-popular Governor like Jeb would maybe, at MOST, have an affect of adding on 1% to Harris's final share of the vote. To suggest he would make any significant difference in her campaign is not based on reality. You can't possibly be that stupid.

You are also not even considering the possibility that Harris is SO unpopular in Florida, that if Jeb had strongly aligned himself with her, it is at least equally as likely if not more likely that she would have DECREASED Jeb's popularity, not increase her own.

Harris is FAR more unpopular than Jeb is popular.

I generally like Ras. but this doesn't sound right. Neither do his Nevada numbers.

LOL

https://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateGovernor060921Net.htm

LOL- what are you laughing about ? HAHAHA. Jeb Bush ties for 20th in the approval ratings for Governors. His +20% net approval hardly makes him an extremely popular gov like the way you talk about him.

But there I go again tring to convince you with solid facts and numbers when while all you do is throw out your opinion like fact and NEVER back up one single thing you say.


Wow, you really are that stupid.

The Research 2000 got Nelson up 18, I wouldn't put much into this poll.

It's a poll from February.

When are you going to win a debate? I'm glad I won this round, see you again next time, pussy.

LOL - well, seeing as how I kicked you around like a rag doll this time and threw out solid FACTS to disprove every one of your silly arguments and delusional opinions, and seeing as how you reverted to calling me names b/c you can't argue intelligently to save your life, I'd say that I won this round pretty handily. See you the next time you start raving like a lunatic about something.....

Nice language. That really makes you sound intelligent.

I concur.

Isn't it a little sad that this was pretty much the deepest thought in the entire thread?