Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2004 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 12:36:43 PM



Title: Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 12:36:43 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/28/kerry.ads.ap/index.html

John Kerry will make a push into Republican-leaning Virginia when he launches new television commercials next week, the start of a $17 million monthlong ad campaign that also targets black and Hispanic audiences.

A mere probe into the Virginian populace to see how receptive it is?  Part of a feint to register the Bush campaign's reaction? Or part of a larger strategy?  Certainly his campaign isn't following what you would expect.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Wakie on May 28, 2004, 12:53:15 PM
Bill Clinton won Virginia in 1992 and they have a Democratic Gov who has been mentioned as a possible VP.

If nothing else an aggressive push in VA will force push to spend some money to counter it.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 12:56:45 PM
(I am making both of these up BTW)

The Fox News/New York Post version of events...

"Desperate at seeing once safe Democratic states such as Michigan and New Jersey suddenly tighten, the Kerry camp today adopted a last gasp "hail Mary" strategy to try to bring additional states into play by targeting Virginia, and to create the illusion of movement to bolster sagging Democratic spirits regarding their listless candidate...."

The CNN/CBS version of events.....

"Flush with cash from millions of small doners, and striking to capitilize on plummeting Bush approval ratings (as shown by a new CBS news poll showing Bush down 82% to 17% among delegates to the Democratic National Convention) The Kerry campaign seeks to expand it's already commanding electoral college lead by attacking once safe GOP strongholds such as Virginia...."

But seriously....

Both sides have piles of cash, they can afford a few "recon" missions into hostile territory to see if there are any targets of opportunity.

I expect the GOP will do the same in New Jersey.

If things go according to form we can expect a couple "leaked" polls in the next week - one from a GOP firm showing Bush within 3% in New Jersey, and one from a Democratic firm showing Kerry within 4% in Virginia.

To be followed shortly by fundrasing letters saying...

"A recent poll shows [insert field 1] trails [insert field 2] by just [insert field 3%] despite spending almost no money in the state.

With your kind and much needed donation of just [insert field 4] we can defeat [insert field 2] and go on to victory in November...





Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Nym90 on May 28, 2004, 01:00:04 PM
Clinton didn't win Virginia in 1992.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Reds4 on May 28, 2004, 01:08:44 PM
Clinton lost VA by a little over 4% in 92 and a little less than 2% in 96. Bush should win VA unless Kerry wins the popular vote overall by 8% or so and then it would probably go to Kerry.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 28, 2004, 01:37:59 PM
Kerry won't win Virginia.  My guess is that Kerry is just playing around right now to see where he has a chance.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 01:43:07 PM
I suppose it's sort of a valid strategy to keep as many states in play until you find out where the chips fall later in the year.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: WalterMitty on May 28, 2004, 01:46:42 PM
my beloved native state would never vote for a man like john kerry.

some folks are reading too much into virginia having a democratic governor.  the previous two gop governors were blips (many thanks go to bill clinton).  virginia has had a long line of democratic governors previous to allen.

if gilmore wouldnt have f'ed up the budget process so much, perhaps a republican would have won in 01.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 28, 2004, 01:49:01 PM
Kerry is showing ads in VA... why is this news?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 01:54:16 PM
Because it shows a new strategy for the Kerry campaign.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 28, 2004, 01:57:15 PM
Because it shows a new strategy for the Kerry campaign.

Not really a *new* strategy is it? It's been obvious for a while that the Dems are targeting the Upper South...


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 03:06:20 PM
I suppose it's a further extension of the Lousiana/Colorado strategy: targeting states that they really shouldn't.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 03:15:16 PM
I suppose it's a further extension of the Lousiana/Colorado strategy: targeting states that they really shouldn't.

A lot of this is "buying" free advertising...

Spend a few hundred $K in strange places, and then get a few million in free and positive coverage as cnn/cbs/abc etc cover how the campaign is on the offensive and targeting gop leaning states, etc, etc..

Smart for Kerry, uses his natural advantages to his best benifit.

Bush might  try it in New Jersey and maybe Maine (he has no hope in Maine, but it's a cheap state to buy media in) if he thought there was a chance of some free media to go along with it.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on May 28, 2004, 03:19:37 PM
If Kerry wins VA, he'll be over 350 electoral votes anyway.  Bush will do better in VA than he does nationwide.  VA will not determine this election.

I think five states are going to tell the story of this election:

1st Tier - Bush must hold 2 of the 3: Ohio, Penn, and Florida

2nd Tier - if Bush holds 2 of 3 from Tier 1, then watch: NH & NM.  Winner of both wins election.

3rd Tier - if Bush holds 2 of 3 from Tier 1 and Tier 2 is split, then the lawyers will be brought in and it will get far uglier than 2000 and the election will probably be decided in the US House.



Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on May 28, 2004, 03:23:15 PM
Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: classical liberal on May 28, 2004, 04:04:58 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see VA end up as Bush-Kerry 49-47 on election day.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 04:12:42 PM
This could just be political payback to Governor Warner for his endorsement during the primaries. He wanted on the shortlist.

Kerry's team is probably just seeing if their is any chance of a VA win.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: agcatter on May 28, 2004, 04:16:22 PM
Mass liberal carrying Va.  Some of you guys are smoking crack.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 04:24:27 PM
He's gaudging how far he could go in Virginia so that he knows what affect putting Edwards on the ticket might have.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 04:30:24 PM
Mass liberal carrying Va.  Some of you guys are smoking crack.

Not everyone sees him how you do.

I don't think he has a chance either, but perhaps now is too early to be discarding any states.  On top of that, it's a cheap way to get media coverage as Vorlon pointed out.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: MHS2002 on May 28, 2004, 04:35:24 PM
Kerry will not carry Virginia barring a landslide. That said, Bush won't win by the 8% like 2000. A margin of victory around 5% seems likely.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 28, 2004, 04:46:14 PM
Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.

Why not?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 04:46:26 PM
Wow, Vorlon, this map is much more Bush freindly than I would have expected, especially given all the negative coverage.  Why so?  Some "credible" organizations seem to think that Kerry has Bush falling back in a near rout.

()


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on May 28, 2004, 05:00:06 PM
Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.

Why not?

Other states will switch columns before NH.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 28, 2004, 05:02:29 PM

Other states will switch columns before NH.

I DO tend to agree with you, I think OH and NM will switch before NH does, but it is definitely a possibility that NH will be the only state to switch.  They are heavily trending Dem...look at the %'s Reagan racked up there.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: agcatter on May 28, 2004, 05:39:30 PM
<not everyone sees him as you do>

What?  As a Massachusetts liberal?  How the hell else could anyone see him?  He's from Massachusetts right?  He has a Senate voting record at least as left as Ted Kennedy.  You think the Bush campaign is going to let Kerry keep that a secret in Virginia?  I hope Kerry's campaign just pours the money into that state.  While they're at it why not dump about four million bucks into Louisiana as well.  And don't stop there.  Since we're now firmly in lala land, why not go after the Carolinas and Tennessee?  I'm sure Southern whites are going to jump at the chance to get on the bandwagon of such a mainstream guy like Kerry.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 05:40:57 PM
Wow, Vorlon, this map is much more Bush freindly than I would have expected, especially given all the negative coverage.  Why so?  Some "credible" organizations seem to think that Kerry has Bush falling back in a near rout.

Firstly, burn all the state polls that come out in the summer.  Don't bother even looking at them.  Use them to wrap fish or line your bird cage.  I know the odd Dem will accuse me of bias on this but I have been saying this for months....

in the summer, you should take the state polls and burn them..

This leaves the national polls, so lets look at them...

(Since most polls are going registered voters, that is what I will use, in a "head to head" where possible.)

Firstly, the Head to Head Registered is the LEAST favorable to Bush of all the choices...

Gallup has Kerry +2
TIPP has Kerry +1
Fox has it tied
Quinnipiac has it tied
ABC has Kerry +2
Rasmussen (based on today's coin flip) has it tied
CBS News  has Kerry +47, or + 23 or what ever (ok it's 8% head to head)
CNN/Time which had Kerry +5%
Zogby has Kerry +5
ARG had Kerry +5

Even if we leave in CBS and ARG, if you average them all, you get Kerry up 2.8% nationally using the LEAST favorable for Bush way of looking at things there is.  

Knock 0.8% off for Nader, and Kerry is up 2% (A "sane" guess I think for a Nader adjustment factor)

Next, Remember this is registered voters we are talking here -   Give the GOP base (Which while grumpy is still showing 90% Support for Bush) anything RESEMBLING good news and the traditional 3% or so GOP edge in a likely voter versus registered vote poll pops back..

Like Magic, Bush is up a point or two...

There is also some evidence that Bush is running a tad better in the Battleground states than he is nationally

    -The last Gallup national poll had Bush +5 in the Battlegrounds
    -Fox had Bush +4 in the Battlegrounds
    -TIPP had Bush +6 in the battlegrounds

While the sample sizes in the battleground part of these national polls is quite small (240-360 ish) the fact that ALL THREE say roughly the same thing  makes me marginally more likely to believe it is true.

Some perspective here - Even without tossing out the clearly Bull%^&t polls in the above calculation, Bush is Down 2.8%, hardly a meltdown.

Ohio was carried by Bush by 3% and a bit of change in 2000 in a race he lost by .51% nationally.  Shift the whole nation 1.5% from it's 2000 baseline and Bush is up 1 or 2% or so in Ohio.

The media frenzy just reflect their enthusiasm for a good story.. the actual shift in the polls has been about 4% or so.  Bush was up 2% or so, he is now down 2% or so.

The fundementals of the race have not changed.

PREDICTION - Bush will be up 2 or 3 in the next round of National polls.

At least that is my opinion.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 28, 2004, 05:54:18 PM
I think the map at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.

()


and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Kerry      337
Bush      148
Toss Up  53


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 06:01:34 PM
I think the map at www.electionproject.com is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.

()


and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Your link does not work, could you repost it please & thank-you! (Election Project)


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 06:04:41 PM
head to heads are not the whole story...especially before the conventions during a reelection year. The right track wrong track numbers and the Bush approval numbers have to be factored in.

And even when looking at head to heads, independent candidates always poll better than they actually do.

When you look at all the national numbers today
Bush in 3 way
Bush in 2 way
Bush approval
Right track

all are in mid to low 40s...with right track in the 30s.

Bush needs to get these numbers into the high 40s at least and really into the 50s if he is going to win.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 28, 2004, 06:12:43 PM
Fixed the link http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
and the toss up gif is better.
Really shows the contrast


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 06:16:22 PM
head to heads are not the whole story...especially before the conventions during a reelection year. The right track wrong track numbers and the Bush approval numbers have to be factored in.

And even when looking at head to heads, independent candidates always poll better than they actually do.

When you look at all the national numbers today
Bush in 3 way
Bush in 2 way
Bush approval
Right track

all are in mid to low 40s...with right track in the 30s.

Bush needs to get these numbers into the high 40s at least and really into the 50s if he is going to win.

I basically agree with you actually.

I posted a couple months ago that the polling number that jumps out at me is the "mismatch" between right track / wrong track and where Bush is.

These two numbers will eventually reconcile with one another.

Either Bush pulls away, or sinks like a rock



Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 06:33:57 PM
This is why that election projection map shows Kerry doing much better than his head to head. One can argue to the weighting that they give to Bush's approval and right track/wrong track, but at least they are factoring them in.

it is traditional for a challenger to take time to get the voters to know him...therefore the head to heads are a lagging indicator to the approval and right track, at this point. (Closer to the election it will reverse and head to head will be more indicitive). Although they are interesting...Head to heads are not very accurate until after both conventions when the swing voters start paying attention.


Of note, in the recent annenburg study, Kerry has boosted his positives in the BG states by 4% in the last month, probably due to his first set of bio ads (and despite the same amount spend on attack ads from Bush)...but there are still quite a few 'neutral' or 'no opinion'. Whereas Bush has very few people who are nuetral or have no opinion.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 28, 2004, 06:43:47 PM
I'm just assuming that he is going to sink like a rock.  I want to predict what the most likely Kerry sweep will look like.  I hope Kerry's own numbers go up after the Convention.

Kerry positive spikes.
Choose Vice President:  Mostly helps firm up non-party members and maybe gets a couple dissastified, regional Republicans.  Increases turn out for regional democrats.

Democratic Convention: strengthens the Democrat base

Nader: Does not get on many ballots, perhaps drops his bid and defers to Kerry.  Small bounce for Kerry from the Other section of the polls

Debates Presidential and the vice-presidential: Brings in votes from the Undecideds, nobody will really switch tickets on the debates.


Election Day: Undecideds vote for the challenger.

Bush's Long Slide:
June 30th: Whatever happens in Iraq US GIs will continue to die,  factions and terrorists will become more desperate and violent if it looks like they are losing out on the power grab.  If they do not become desperate they are winning in Iraq and US GIs will continue to die in greater numbers.

Republic Convention: Ill timed New York convention causes riots.  The Bush faithful will become more faithful (but they were going to vote anyway).  Leaves a bad taste in the mouths of the likely Bush voters and they become less likely to vote for Bush or become Undecided.  Bush makes a lot more promises  and it will become clear that they will not be kept.

Debates: By now I hope Kerry will have turned on.  Kerry will make Bush stand on his record and Bush will drop in numbers with Women voters.

Osama: Not found.  Loses more votes

Scandal: Yet to be determined early fall.  Likely become even less likely.  Even adamant supporters find better things to do than vote for Bush like polishing silver ware.

everything going Kerry's way unlikely but if we were to make bets today it always a good idea to realisticly look at the outliers.  I'm betting on double 0.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: zachman on May 28, 2004, 06:53:16 PM
Khirkhib there are only two things I really disagree with in your predictions. First, I don't think that the debates will have much of an effect. Second, I think that there is going to be some overriding event of priority in the fall.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 07:00:13 PM
There is also some evidence that Bush is running a tad better in the Battleground states than he is nationally

    -The last Gallup national poll had Bush +5 in the Battlegrounds
    -Fox had Bush +4 in the Battlegrounds
    -TIPP had Bush +6 in the battlegrounds

While the sample sizes in the battleground part of these national polls is quite small (240-360 ish) the fact that ALL THREE say roughly the same thing  makes me marginally more likely to believe it is true.

Believe what is true?  What does the "battlegrounds" number even mean?  This number is simply not very useful.  If the polling firm includes Louisiana, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Missouri, etc. in this number, it's going to be skewed towards Bush.  Of course, some states like Minnesota and Maine will skew it slightly back to Kerry, but they don't add up to nearly the same amount.  Or even if they did, the average number for all of them still doesn't reflect the overall situation in the battlegrounds.  Bush could be doing extremely well in Florida but worse in Ohio.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 07:18:42 PM
Bush isnt leading in BG states

 latest (May 23) Gallup
()
...not Bush  +5, but Kerry +5  kind of different


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 07:45:14 PM
Bush isnt leading in BG states

 latest (May 23) Gallup
()
...not Bush  +5, but Kerry +5  kind of different


You are correct :(

I had the May 13th gallup on my brain... Exact same mistake you made a few weeks back when you quoted the May 9th Gallup..

This time I am one poll out of step.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 07:50:39 PM
well I guess we are even

but I would like to see proof that the other two BG polls show a Bush lead. The only other BG poll I saw this week was the (potentially dubious) Zogby which showed Kerry leading so far that Bush should just pack it in now.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 28, 2004, 07:59:12 PM
I still disagree that this number actually means anything.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 08:02:49 PM
well I guess we are even

but I would like to see proof that the other two BG polls show a Bush lead. The only other BG poll I saw this week was the (potentially dubious) Zogby which showed Kerry leading so far that Bush should just pack it in now.

Link to TIPP

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200405181 (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200405181)

Link to Fox

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200505190 (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200505190)

Lunar is right

with 2 showing up and 1 down.... it's meaningless


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 08:26:13 PM
So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 08:44:37 PM
So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.





Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 08:46:33 PM
I think the map at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.

()


and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Kerry      337
Bush      148
Toss Up  53

Dude, that map is seriously junk.  Even Dems that I have talked to say that.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 08:55:10 PM
So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.





you agree that head to heads are not an indicator, yet you use them for your 'prediction', even using a flawed one. You agree that one should factor in right track and job approval, yet you ignore them.

I freely admint I am partisan, I like partisan people. And your predictions fit well into all the other Republicans who 'hope' for a Bush reelection, just stop pretending it isnt.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 28, 2004, 08:59:48 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()



Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 09:02:52 PM
So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.





you agree that head to heads are not an indicator, yet you use them for your 'prediction', even using a flawed one. You agree that one should factor in right track and job approval, yet you ignore them.

I freely admint I am partisan, I like partisan people. And your predictions fit well into all the other Republicans who 'hope' for a Bush reelection, just stop pretending it isnt.

I have never said that.

You are making things up.

Of course head to head is an indicator.

Who people are going to vote for is NOT an indicator in your book?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 09:07:38 PM
you agreed that head to heads are not the sole indicator

yet that is all you use to justify your 'prediction'...and even the head to heads dont show a Bush win.

and you agree that you shouldnt ignore the right track and the job approvals...yet your do ignore them for your prediction


Look I have no problem with hope based predictions....everyone here has one...and so do you.....just dont try to dress it up as anything else.


If Bush's numbers bounce back in June....then you can say it is numbers based....until then it is 'faith based'



Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 09:12:50 PM
you agreed that head to heads are not the sole indicator

yet that is all you use to justify your 'prediction'...and even the head to heads dont show a Bush win.

and you agree that you shouldnt ignore the right track and the job approvals...yet your do ignore them for your prediction


Look I have no problem with hope based predictions....everyone here has one...and so do you.....just dont try to dress it up as anything else.


If Bush's numbers bounce back in June....then you can say it is numbers based....until then it is 'faith based'



Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  ;)

Have a great weekend.. :)


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 09:30:31 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()



AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 28, 2004, 09:33:02 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()



AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

Unrelated...

Your take on the Pennsylvania senate race?

Please & Thank-you!


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 09:38:06 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()



AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

Unrelated...

Your take on the Pennsylvania senate race?

Please & Thank-you!

I haven't researched into it much, because personally I have stopped caring, but I think Specter will probably win by a rather tidy margin.  Hoeffel just lacks the organization.  I am kinda hoping Hoeffel wins to be honest, that way there would be no established candidate to take on Santorum.  Unless of course Specter can dig up some dirt to fatally wound Hoeffel.  I know that that is not what you asked for.

I will say this though, the victory of Specter over Toomey proves one thing.  Look at the map.  I see that those voters who are from the more conservative areas of PA are fiercly loyal to Bush (because they voted for Specter against their own beliefs).  That could play big for Bush in November.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: WalterMitty on May 28, 2004, 09:46:35 PM
note to john kerry:  OHIO.

so far ive heard colorado, arkansas, louisiana and virginia.  tomorrow nebraska will probably be on kerry's map



Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: California Dreamer on May 28, 2004, 09:46:58 PM

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  ;)

Have a great weekend.. :)


ahhhh....the fabled 'secret information' like that guy who had his secret 'inside info' on who's on the real Kerry Shortlist.

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)



Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 09:51:56 PM
note to john kerry:  OHIO.

so far ive heard colorado, arkansas, louisiana and virginia.  tomorrow nebraska will probably be on kerry's map



I think that Kerry is testing the waters for his various VP choices.  Seeing where he can acctually make gains if he applies himself and picks the right VP.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 28, 2004, 09:55:22 PM

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  ;)

Have a great weekend.. :)


ahhhh....the fabled 'secret information' like that guy who had his secret 'inside info' on who's on the real Kerry Shortlist.

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)



I wouldn't arguee with the man.  Something tells me the Vorlon is a real pollster.  He seems to love Mason/Dixon (could just be a coincidence).  Or even better, he may be involoved in running the extremely accurate internal polls that the cadidate use.

The other guy who claimed inside info (can't remember who it was) was just a nutcase.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: agcatter on May 28, 2004, 10:01:17 PM
Yeah, I wouldn't argue with him either.  The guy knows his stuff.  


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 29, 2004, 01:29:23 AM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()




That map is not impossible this year.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Smash255 on May 29, 2004, 01:54:17 AM
note to john kerry:  OHIO.

so far ive heard colorado, arkansas, louisiana and virginia.  tomorrow nebraska will probably be on kerry's map



What about Ohio??  Kerry is spending money in Ohio.  If I remember correctly as of a few weeks ago he spent more money in Ohio than any other state


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 29, 2004, 01:58:19 AM
A state reaches its saturation limit too.  I wouldn't be surprised if your "bang" decreases exponentially the more bucks you put in.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 29, 2004, 02:08:46 AM
A state reaches its saturation limit too.  I wouldn't be surprised if your "bang" decreases exponentially the more bucks you put in.

Very true.  After a while, people will just tune you out.  Dean absolutly saturated the airwaves in New Hampshire and spent a lot of money in Iowa and look what it got him.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 29, 2004, 12:20:25 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()




AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

Quote
Version: 3

This is my new prediction given the present reality of a 53%-47% between myself and Nym. I used comperible numbers from other election to formulate my prediction for the approx. number of EV's we would get. The closest one I could get was BushvDukakas, which had Bush at 420 or so. I went a little lighter than that.

Version: 1

I see a contest between Myself/Demrepdan and Nym90/Harry playing out like this. I'll comment later when I have the time.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election. ()

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: classical liberal on May 29, 2004, 12:59:48 PM
A map has to be conherent wrt itself to be considered valid.  Any map that has WA Dem but CA GOP is bullsh**t.  Any map that has NJ GOP with IL or CA Dem is bullsh**t.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: mddem2004 on May 29, 2004, 01:17:55 PM
Not a bad strategy for Kerry, or even surprising. Virginia's northern suburbs are one of the fastest growing regions in the country. Take the northern suburbs in sufficent numbers and you win the state. Alot of independents, soccer moms, and a growing latino community. When combined with the fact the Gov. Warner (D) is a generally liked and respected governor who will campaign hard for Kerry, it makes sence. Yes...Virginia going Dem in a presidential election might be difficult to swallow to die hard conservatives. But who would have thought 10 years ago that long time die hard conservative states like Nevada, Florida, Arizona, or even North Carolina would be "Toss Up" states today (North Carolina went for Dole by only 4.69% in 96, and by only 0.79% for Bush I in 92!).

The states that have the fastest growing populations and urbanization are and will continue to trend more moderate or even liberal  in the next few election cycles.
Conversly, those states that are losing population will tend to trend more conservative (ie West Virginia).

Conservatives....get used to it!


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 29, 2004, 01:25:06 PM
The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Schmitz in 1972 on May 29, 2004, 01:39:13 PM
There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: JohnFKennedy on May 29, 2004, 01:42:10 PM
There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

Liberty, perchance is your name Liberty as you went to Liberty University in Virginia?

Just something someone suggested to me.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Schmitz in 1972 on May 29, 2004, 01:54:09 PM
There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

Liberty, perchance is your name Liberty as you went to Liberty University in Virginia?

Just something someone suggested to me.

I knew if I chose Liberty as a username that someone was going to think that.  The answer is no, while I respect the University my name is Liberty because it is what I stand for. (BTW, you could have looked in the "What does your username mean" thread, I posted there.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: JohnFKennedy on May 29, 2004, 02:00:06 PM
There is absolutely no way Kerry is going to take Virginia, and I should know being a Virginian myself.  If you want to win this election Kerry, (God forbid) you best be spending your money elsewhere.

Liberty, perchance is your name Liberty as you went to Liberty University in Virginia?

Just something someone suggested to me.

I knew if I chose Liberty as a username that someone was going to think that.  The answer is no, while I respect the University my name is Liberty because it is what I stand for. (BTW, you could have looked in the "What does your username mean" thread, I posted there.

Oh ok, it is just something someone suggested to me when I showed them your list of top 10 worst and best Presidents.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 29, 2004, 02:15:14 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()




AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

Quote
Version: 3

This is my new prediction given the present reality of a 53%-47% between myself and Nym. I used comperible numbers from other election to formulate my prediction for the approx. number of EV's we would get. The closest one I could get was BushvDukakas, which had Bush at 420 or so. I went a little lighter than that.

Version: 1

I see a contest between Myself/Demrepdan and Nym90/Harry playing out like this. I'll comment later when I have the time.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election. ()

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

No that's the map from a dream that I had, as I was just showing, States.  And I used the map you posted on the Santorum vs. Kucinich thread.  I don't really have a real map at the moment.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 29, 2004, 02:17:20 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()




AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

Quote
Version: 3

This is my new prediction given the present reality of a 53%-47% between myself and Nym. I used comperible numbers from other election to formulate my prediction for the approx. number of EV's we would get. The closest one I could get was BushvDukakas, which had Bush at 420 or so. I went a little lighter than that.

Version: 1

I see a contest between Myself/Demrepdan and Nym90/Harry playing out like this. I'll comment later when I have the time.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election. ()

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

And, I had my map posted in my signature for a long time, I just took it down because there wasn't enough room.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 29, 2004, 02:18:33 PM
well as long as you are being scientific it's fine


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 29, 2004, 03:30:14 PM
It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

()




AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

Quote
Version: 3

This is my new prediction given the present reality of a 53%-47% between myself and Nym. I used comperible numbers from other election to formulate my prediction for the approx. number of EV's we would get. The closest one I could get was BushvDukakas, which had Bush at 420 or so. I went a little lighter than that.

Version: 1

I see a contest between Myself/Demrepdan and Nym90/Harry playing out like this. I'll comment later when I have the time.

Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election. ()

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

No that's the map from a dream that I had, as I was just showing, States.  And I used the map you posted on the Santorum vs. Kucinich thread.  I don't really have a real map at the moment.

didn't you once have a serious prediction map that had Bush winning Hawaii?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: mddem2004 on May 29, 2004, 03:52:39 PM
The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.

Actually the real problem is that they are simply dying. Many of the older Roosvelt era diehard Democrats are simply dying and not being replaced with newly registered, and consistantly democratic voting democrats. We have much the same problem in my state in counties like Alleghany which used to be a staunch Democratic county. Last year there were several months that people were removed from the democratic rolls due to death far out numbered new enrollments.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 29, 2004, 04:07:28 PM
While I doubt Kerry will win Virginia, I predict it'll be a lot closer than everyone expects. I don't see why people can't see Virginia is becoming less Republican. The northern suburbs are heavily growing, and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is being loaded with northeastern transplants.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: classical liberal on May 29, 2004, 04:41:50 PM
Bush won't win NOVA or Hampton.  Therefore, he won't win a majority of voters in VA.  However, he may still win the state with a plurality.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 29, 2004, 05:56:05 PM
The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.

Actually the real problem is that they are simply dying. Many of the older Roosvelt era diehard Democrats are simply dying and not being replaced with newly registered, and consistantly democratic voting democrats. We have much the same problem in my state in counties like Alleghany which used to be a staunch Democratic county. Last year there were several months that people were removed from the democratic rolls due to death far out numbered new enrollments.

Its about time.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: The Vorlon on May 29, 2004, 10:30:41 PM

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  ;)

Have a great weekend.. :)


ahhhh....the fabled 'secret information' like that guy who had his secret 'inside info' on who's on the real Kerry Shortlist.

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)


http://www.cleveland.com/news/index.ssf?/news/more/pd/05poll29.html (http://www.cleveland.com/news/index.ssf?/news/more/pd/05poll29.html)

Ohio
Mason Dixon
1500 sample size
Bush +6

As I am sure you know, (because there is no way I could possibly have more information than you so I will just "remind" you)  this poll more or less agrees with the Terrance group poll showing Bush +4, and the Public Opinion Strategies poll showing Bush +3

Not everybody plays the same game as you.  Your game is that you support Mr. Kerry, my "game" is that I want to get every state right this year.

I am in a huge election pool with (currently) over 1200 other people and the prize fund is non-trivial.  

I'd like a nice big chunk of that pie :)

In a hockey pool, do you pick the players you "like" or the ones you think will score the most points?

I am not a huge fan of Detroit's Pavel Datsuk (weak in his own end, floats at the blue line) but I was quite happy to get him in the 6th round of my regular season hockey pool..

You are so partisan that the concept that somebody could not have a "horse in the race" is alien to you.  

I can accept that, I would hope that you can accept that there are those who have moved beyond a partisan universe into one where other things are valued.

I like that you have passion for your guy, I hope you register every single voter in your neighborhood and you do all you can to bring more people into the process.

That is your game, not mine anymore.  I have done my bit for God and Country as it were.

I just have a different set of rules that I play by relative to you.

BTW, there is another fellow on this board that is 100% convinced that I am pro-Kerry and a closet Democrat.

I should introduce you to each other. :)

Please have a nice weekend.  



Bush leads Kerry in new PD poll


Mark Naymik
Plain Dealer Politics Writer
5/29/03

President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.

Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 29, 2004, 10:56:53 PM
dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)

Yes, how dare he predict a Kerry victory on Nov 02.  If he does indeed prefer the Republicans like you claim, how does that translate into him skewing his predictions in their favor?

And he does indeed have inside information.  You've seen it posted more than once.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 30, 2004, 01:42:41 AM
alright, supersoulty's latest prediction map:

()

I really hope you made this map for some other reason and it's not a serious prediction. I can't see even supersoulty being this deluded.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 30, 2004, 02:16:25 AM
alright, supersoulty's latest prediction map:

()

I really hope you made this map for some other reason and it's not a serious prediction. I can't see even supersoulty being this deluded.

Oh for Christ's sake how many ing times am I going ot have to explain this.  That was a map I made to explain a dream I had.  Don't bother goin ginto my maps and if you do, the least curdisy you could do is look on the last ing page and get the explination.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 30, 2004, 04:29:16 AM
The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.

Actually the real problem is that they are simply dying. Many of the older Roosvelt era diehard Democrats are simply dying and not being replaced with newly registered, and consistantly democratic voting democrats. We have much the same problem in my state in counties like Alleghany which used to be a staunch Democratic county. Last year there were several months that people were removed from the democratic rolls due to death far out numbered new enrollments.

Its about time.

Death wouldn't be a problem if younger people in Southern WV voted. As a rule they don't.
If Kerry wants to win WV he needs these people to turn out.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: classical liberal on May 30, 2004, 08:13:34 AM
I was driving through WV and I listened in on a rally in S. WV.  I was surprised to see that there is actual enthusiasm for Kerry among the coal miners and especially among their children.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: WalterMitty on May 30, 2004, 09:00:46 AM
i always enjoy my trips to wva.  i was driving down I-77 recently in southern wva and i saw a dead bear on the side of the road.  ive seen a lot of roadkill in my time, but that is the first and only bear ive ever seen that had been hit by a car.

it was a small bear, but it had to have torn the vehicle that hit it all to pieces.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 30, 2004, 09:42:32 AM
The problem with WV's isn't that it's losing population... the problem is that less people in the strongly Democrat south of the state are voting.

Actually the real problem is that they are simply dying. Many of the older Roosvelt era diehard Democrats are simply dying and not being replaced with newly registered, and consistantly democratic voting democrats. We have much the same problem in my state in counties like Alleghany which used to be a staunch Democratic county. Last year there were several months that people were removed from the democratic rolls due to death far out numbered new enrollments.

Its about time.

Death wouldn't be a problem if younger people in Southern WV voted. As a rule they don't.
If Kerry wants to win WV he needs these people to turn out.

I know I've said it about a million times. I don't mean to be morbid but my whole point is I think this country may end its dead lock and actually get something done once the New Dealers and BabyBoomer/Vietnam era folks are to old to be in office anymore. That is why I feel their is going to be a shift among the electorate.


On a side note : WalterMitty what part of N.C. are you from?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: WalterMitty on May 30, 2004, 10:48:22 AM
i live in the north central part of the state.  close to greensboro.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 30, 2004, 11:07:41 AM
My wifes family is from Wilson.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 30, 2004, 03:06:39 PM
I was driving through WV and I listened in on a rally in S. WV.  I was surprised to see that there is actual enthusiasm for Kerry among the coal miners and especially among their children.

IIRC he did very well in Coal Country in the VA primary


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 30, 2004, 05:15:47 PM
alright, supersoulty's latest prediction map:

()

I really hope you made this map for some other reason and it's not a serious prediction. I can't see even supersoulty being this deluded.

Oh for Christ's sake how many g times am I going ot have to explain this.  That was a map I made to explain a dream I had.  Don't bother goin ginto my maps and if you do, the least curdisy you could do is look on the last g page and get the explination.

you don't have an explanation for anything past version 3


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: khirkhib on May 30, 2004, 06:18:11 PM
BRTD I already started this debate with him too.  And he does seem to get very testy about his maps.  I think he means that out is some discussion some point in the past he explained his map so if you really wanted to know what the map meant you would look up all entries that he has made.  Or more specifally the entries that he made on the day that the map was produced and find the explanation that he posted with it.  Really simple actually and were lazy for not havind done it.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 30, 2004, 06:35:20 PM
Fellows, lay off Super, he was using that map for another thread. I usually just use the calculator under the Election INFO section but he chooses to use the Prediction area. Give him a break already.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 30, 2004, 09:31:48 PM
at least he should explain that in the description then. like i said, he has nothing up past version 3.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 30, 2004, 09:44:43 PM
oh and StatesRights, your map has Kerry winning Florida. I thought you were saying Kerry had no chance in Florida?

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Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: Lunar on May 30, 2004, 09:45:57 PM
Might be another one of those fake maps.  There is no way that one is serious.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 30, 2004, 10:16:39 PM
Might be another one of those fake maps.  There is no way that one is serious.


I have dreamed that map 6 times in the past year. I stick firm by it. Major event in July-August. I have 3-4 other sources who confirm and have had the same dream. Rack me up with the nutzos if you wish.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 30, 2004, 10:19:48 PM
Might be another one of those fake maps.  There is no way that one is serious.


I have dreamed that map 6 times in the past year. I stick firm by it. Major event in July-August. I have 3-4 other sources who confirm and have had the same dream. Rack me up with the nutzos if you wish.

so you think Kerry will win Florida? You've said many times in the past Kerry has no chance in Florida.

I'm interested in what type of event could give Kerry Virginia and Missouri while he loses California and Washington.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 30, 2004, 10:23:34 PM
Might be another one of those fake maps.  There is no way that one is serious.


I have dreamed that map 6 times in the past year. I stick firm by it. Major event in July-August. I have 3-4 other sources who confirm and have had the same dream. Rack me up with the nutzos if you wish.

so you think Kerry will win Florida? You've said many times in the past Kerry has no chance in Florida.

I'm interested in what type of event could give Kerry Virginia and Missouri while he loses California and Washington.

I hope to heck my map is wrong! I hope Bush does win Florida. Because I fear something terrible will have happened for this map to occur.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 31, 2004, 07:08:31 AM
Thurmond,

Who wins in your map?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 31, 2004, 12:37:56 PM

R-270
D-268


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 31, 2004, 01:04:50 PM

:)


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 31, 2004, 01:05:13 PM
If Kerry wins FL he will win the election.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: minionofmidas on May 31, 2004, 01:17:46 PM
If Kerry wins FL he will win the election.
Unless he loses California.
Maybe that's what SR is trying to tell us?


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 31, 2004, 06:08:03 PM
yeah, but that's not going to happen. such a scenario is just silly and as pointless as saying Bush can win without Texas if he wins New York.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: ?????????? on May 31, 2004, 06:56:14 PM
yeah, but that's not going to happen. such a scenario is just silly and as pointless as saying Bush can win without Texas if he wins New York.

Stranger things have happened. I trust my instinct.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: © tweed on May 31, 2004, 07:51:53 PM
If Kerry wins FL he will win CA.


Title: Re:Kerry expanding into Virginia
Post by: agcatter on May 31, 2004, 08:08:04 PM
Whoever wins the truly swing states will be a slam dunk to win what are regarded as their safe states.  Bush won't win Wisconsin and lose Ohio for example.