Talk Elections

I'd say Missouri.

Yeah people here seem to have a big problem with Holden.  Blunt is fairly popular.

Missouri or Montana, probably Missouri

Holden is the most likely to be defeated, but he has almost as much chance of losing the primary as the general election.

The most likely seat to switch parties is Montana.  Schweitzer is up big in every poll.

Indiana

Missouri and Indiana.  The Washington race could switch too.

Missouri.

WV is the least likely to switch (the Dem candidate is the popular Sec of State for WV. And as he's not tarred in anyway by Wise's inability to "keep it zipped").
Holden is the most likely to go down... but quite possibly in the primary.
Lets say Montana.

how come wise isnt running for reelection?  is he term limited?

He got caught in an affair. Too bad, the Dem candidate is a DINO jerk who endorsed Underwood at one point and wants to REQUIRE schools to post the Ten Commandments. No, he's not for defending the rights of schools or teachers to post them, he wants it MANDATED. If I lived in WV I'd be voting third party. I'd rather Wise run again even if he was vulnerable than let that jerk get in.

Manchin's no DINO... he's a populist (his economic policy is very interventionist) and his views, however repellent they are to you, are those of the majority of people in WV.

It's not his views mainly though, it's that he endorsed Underwood.

also if he's pro-right to work like I've been told, he's no populist either.

Cross party endorsements etc are very common in WV. It's often got more to do with power than ideology: http://www.manchin2004.com/endorsements.cfm (http://www.manchin2004.com/endorsements.cfm)


Who told you that?
Have a look at this: http://www.manchin2004.com/keyissues.cfm?issue=1 (http://www.manchin2004.com/keyissues.cfm?issue=1)

Montana.

2 people voted WV?!?!
Manchin is sitting at 60% in the polls with an unknown GOP opponent.
No way he loses.

Definately watch Washington.  The likely democratic nominee is a potentially weak candidate named Christine Gregoire.  She is the AG of Washington State.  Unfortunately for her there is a "scandal" involving her mismanagement of the AG's office that will no doubt dog her until the end of the election.  And of course, Gregoire will be running to succeed the somewhat unpopular Gary Locke.  Republicans don't like Locke because he's a slave to the teachers unions and the democrats don't like him because he signed a budget a couple of sessions ago that gutted some state programs.

Meanwhile, the republicans have already rallied behind Dino Rossi.  He's simply a phenomenal candidate.  He's a state Senator from Western Washington, a successful businessman.  He's accepted by moderates and conservatives (in the past WA republicans have nominated far right candidates).  He's been raising a ton of money.

Another thing to keep in mind is that since 2000, republican voter registration has increased significantly.  I believe republicans are within a point or two of achieving parity with the democrats.  All that to say that I think republicans have a great opportunity to win the governorship.

Where did you get data for voter registration?? I can't find it.

It certainly took the Republicans quite a while to find a candidate. You're right though, he is the first Republican candidate to have a chance of winning in a while...

Rossi is (well, was) the state senator for my district.

The numbers I referred to comes from a report by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press entitled "2004 Political Landscape."  The report examines party identification nation-wide and on a state by state basis.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750

Washington isn't mentioned in the text of the report, but you can see in the table entitled "Partisan Shifts in Democratic States" that Republicans have made a net gain of 6 percentage points in party identification post 9/11.  Of course, this report isn't gospel, but I do think it accurately captured a nation-wide swing to the GOP in which Washington state is included.

Don't some state governments actually have the info?? I think I remember reading about the reason why Washington doesn't but I forgot.

I'm a stat whore.

You guys of all should know, shouldn't you? There is no partisan registration in Washington. Or at least that's what I'm told...

But why not? That is what I don't understand. I want to know!

That's about to change with our new primary system.  The numbers in the survey I cited above are voter identification.  In the very near future, however, there should be some data about voter registration in Washington state.

Montana will be close, but I predict that Brown will win in the 2-3% margin.  Schwietzer is currently bogged down in a scandal that will seriously hurt his campaign: he recently bought two trucks from a dealer in Idaho, instead of Montana.  
Also Shweitzer is a control freak who was running his own campaign until just weeks before the primary when he hired the son of NBA commisioner David Stern, but his campaign manager has vitually no control over the campaign, with shweitzer and his brother in complete control

Well it's good to here from someone that knows Montana politics that we still have a chance at keeping the Governorship there. Welcome to the forum, RockiesFan.

Thanks Phil.
Even with all of Shweitzer's oddities, however, he is a skilled politician (almost beat Sen Burns in '00) and he actually has a repub for a running mate (State Sen John Bollinger), who could really cut into the heavy republican areas in Billings.
But overall, Bush will easily win this state, and generate coatails for Brown, carrying him to victory (also remember that Bush's campaign chairman is Marc Racicot, the extremely popular former governor of MT).

Yeah I really can't believe that one. I think it was something like 51% - 48%. That is shocking a Montana incumbent Senator.

Missouri.

I voted Holden as well - he looks to be in a fair amount of trouble. Indiana's would be second. I don't think WV's governor's seat is in danger of going GOP at all.

He has a very strong primary challenge, too. I think he'll win that but he'll be very weak in the general. Missouri will go GOP.

As for the WV race, I don't see it going GOP, either. The Dem and Republican are very similar so the voters (Dems are the majority in WV) will probably see no reason to change party control.

It would be more accurate to say that while Manchin (the Dem candidate) is a popular Sec of State, no one actually knows who the GOP's candidate is.
Manchin is on 60% at the moment...

I think now the only states without anyone are AK, NV, WY, ND, DE, VT, and DC. (My apologies to anyone in those states if I left out somebody.)