Talk Elections

is not newsworthy in that it is from a non battleground state.  What is interesting is that it reflects the same exact 12 pt margin that occurred in the 2000 election.  It's like nothing has happened in the last four years to move the numbers from where they ended up in 2000.

In state after state it's as if nothing at all happened to change anything over the last four yrs.

Before I'll make a commet... what were the actual numbers?
Leads are meaningless to me...

I think it's simply because the nation is so polarized... other than that modest 10-15% of "swing" voters.  Neither Gore nor Kerry are "attractive" candidates.  So, to a large degree (IMO) both 2000 and 2004 are referendums on the same person... Bush.  So, given the polarization, there's no way to shift anything.  Voters who supported Bush in 2000 were so staunchly pro-Bush that they're not likely to be swayed by anything.  He could appoint Osama as new CIA director and the 2000 Bush voters would still vote for him in 2004.  Ditto for the anti-Bush voters.  Unemployment could go to zero and we could pull out of a stable Iraq by September and the 2000 anti-Bush voters would still vote for Kerry in 2004.

Yes, that's hyperbole, but you get my point... It will be VERY difficult to sway voters' opinions.

51/39

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13200405310 (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13200405310)

Thanks :)
Not good numbers for Bush, but nothing that'll make him panic... on the balance of probabilities Bush holds GA, however it isn't beyond reasonable doubt.
Kinda what I'd expected really.

Actually, almost a clone of 2000.

In 2000:

Bush got 54.67%
Gore got 42.98%

Lead = 11.69% versus 12% +/- 5% quoted in survey

Georgia is a very polarized state.  If you're Black or dirt poor you vote Democrat, if you're not, you vote Republican.

Blacks made up 35.73% of actual voters in Georgia in 2000 (highest Black turnout as a % to total votes cast in the nation)

Blacks went 92/8 for Gore
Non-Blacks went 81/19% for Bush

Almost a clone but not quite ;D
Mind you, GA has a weirdly volatile electorate (despite, or possibly because, of the polarisation).
Suburban Atlanta is very conservative... kinda like NOVA in the '80's actually...

Yes Mr. Grammar/word usuge nazi.. you are correct :(

Clone is like "unique"

It is a clone, or it is not
It is unique, or it is not.

Can't be "almost" of either.

How about "similar to 2000" then.... ;)

% Democrat vote 2000
()

Population by County 2000
()

The Dems are still holding their own in most of rural GA, but the suburbs have been slowly killing them since Jimmy Carter left electoral politics...
Rural GA has lost almost all it's political influence (shame, the people there are nice. Oh well. Sanford Bishop for Prez!)
---
Grammer Nazi? I prefer "pedant" ;D

I have a feeling that almost all undecideds will go to Kerry, unless he seriously s up or Bush gets his sh**t together.  However, knowing Kerry the former is highly likely.

12% seems like a reasonable spread

I'm predicting a final result of 51-45-2-2 Bush-Kerry-Badnarik-Peroutka.

FWIW, their Missouri poll is out now too...  44% Bush, 43% Kerry

good laugh.

are you saying that 4% of georgian voters are going to vote for a nut?  give the people of georgia a little more credit.

im a conservative, but id vote for ralph nader with a smile on my face before id even consider voting for badnarik or peroutka <cringe>

Cobb County voted for Newt for about 30 years...

The libertarian party won 2% last time.

I think that especially if Roy Moore is campaigning for the Constitution party, they will pull around 2 off of Bush's numbers in the south.

as a southerner, i think roy moore is an embarrassment.

he's a modern day george wallace.  

ironic that moore would campaign for a member of the 'constitution party', seeing as how moore snubs his nose at the constitution and the rule of law.

But you have to admit that pulling 2 points from Bush in the south isn't very farfetched.

i dont know about 2%.  moore isnt being honest with the people.  this isnt about religion or the ten commandements, it's about the rule of law.  im a god fearing man, but i strongly believe we must abide by the supreme court rulings (even those i disagree with)

i visited the constitution party website.  this peroutka character is scary.  he seems like he is advocating nothing short of a theocracy.

i find it amusing that he uses the word 'sodomy' quite frequently.

peroutka on education:

"Our public schools are a cesspool of politically correct, condom dispensing, sodomy promoting sewage that calls itself education."

peroutka on marriage:

"First, we do not support any sodomy-based policy, let alone marriage"


"He slams President Bush for promoting "safe sodomy" and doling out tax dollars to Planned Parenthood."

and my personal favorite:


"* If John Kerry was President, he might appoint pro-sodomy and pro-abortion people to high government positions."


lol!!! 'pro-sodomy'

I never understood the appeal of disbarred Judge Moore, either.

What is he famous for? Getting removed from office by not removing a hunk of granite from a courthouse. Lame.

Who does Roy Moore intend to campaign against? President Bush, who, for all his faults, is exterminating the Religion of Peace faster than they can breed.

i intend on smiling and voting for bush.

Where did you get that info?

That's good news about Nader, he must be doing pathetic elsewhere also then.

I doubt Nader would do well in Georgia anyway.  The south is not third party friendly.

Anyone seen anything about a new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia?  I saw it on Insider Politics, but I can't find it on the web.