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Title: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: afleitch on August 11, 2006, 11:52:51 AM What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?
PART I 1.Labour Majority 2.Labour Minority 3.Conservative Minority 4.Conservative Majority 5.Liberal Democrats largest party 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader 8.BNP pick up one seat 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats 11. Greens pick up a seat 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 11, 2006, 12:01:48 PM Isn't it a little early for this?
1.Labour Majority: uncertain 2.Labour Minority: uncertain 3.Conservative Minority: uncertain 4.Conservative Majority: unlikely, but not impossible... 5.Liberal Democrats largest party: impossible 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: very likely 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: more likely now than was for a while. 8.BNP pick up one seat: not very likely, but just about possible (and it would be Barking). O/c that assumes the electoral system doesn't change. 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: very unlikely 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: very, very, very unlikely 11. Greens pick up a seat: possible, but see 8. 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: very unlikely. It might have more powers devolved to it though. Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Јas on August 11, 2006, 12:25:59 PM What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?
PART I 1.Labour Majority This far out, who can say. I suspect that Labour will still be in office, but what do I know? About 45% 2.Labour Minority 20% 3.Conservative Minority 20% 4.Conservative Majority Doable, but not likely. 15% 5.Liberal Democrats largest party Hugely unlikely. Would require quite the confluence of events. Less than 1%. 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader More likely than anyone else at the moment but far from a lock. Often times the favourite just doesn't win. 65% 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader See above. 35% 8.BNP pick up one seat Seems fairly unlikely. Would require some fairly abnormal intervening events. In and around 1%. 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats I don't see them getting one in normal circumstances, so getting a handful may be about as likely as any one in particular. Less than 1% 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats Chances of a very serious impact outisde of very specific geographic areas, very unlikely. Much less than 1% 11. Greens pick up a seat All the major parties seem to be going 'green'. In the absence of a chance in the voting system, or maybe a very significant environmental disaster (a major incident at Sellafield or somesuch) this is not something I expect to see. About 1%. 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election I can't think of any scenario whereby this would happen in this timeframe. Very close to 0%. Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Harry Hayfield on August 11, 2006, 02:00:47 PM What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election? PART I 1.Labour Majority: Low (less than 25%) 2.Labour Minority: Moderate (50%) 3.Conservative Minority: Low (less than 25%) 4.Conservative Majority: Minute (less than 5%) 5.Liberal Democrats largest party: Infinestial (less than 0.001%) 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: High (85%) 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: Low (15%) 8.BNP pick up one seat: Moderate (50%) 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: Low (25%) 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: Very Low (5%) 11. Greens pick up a seat: Moderate (50%) 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: Moderate (50%) Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: minionofmidas on August 12, 2006, 08:12:15 AM 1.Labour Majority
Highish (less than 50%) 2.Labour Minority Less than option 1. 3.Conservative Minority Less than option 1. 4.Conservative Majority Less than option 1. All of them distinctly possible o/c. 5.Liberal Democrats largest party Exceedingly unlikely 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader Exceedingly likely 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader see above, silly 8.BNP pick up one seat Unlikely, possible 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats Very unlikely, just about possible 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats Exceedingly unlikely 11. Greens pick up a seat Very unlikely, just about possible 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election Exceedingly unlikely Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Harry Hayfield on August 12, 2006, 11:58:51 AM 11. Greens pick up a seat Very unlikely, just about possible As the first person from outside the UK to post, I was wondering if you were aware of the following result from Brighton, Pavillion? Lab 36%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 21% Ind 0%, UKIP 1%, Others 1% Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: minionofmidas on August 13, 2006, 05:59:36 AM 11. Greens pick up a seat Very unlikely, just about possible As the first person from outside the UK to post, I was wondering if you were aware of the following result from Brighton, Pavillion? Lab 36%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 21% Ind 0%, UKIP 1%, Others 1% Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Rural Radical on August 13, 2006, 06:31:43 AM What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election? PART I 1.Labour Majority 60% 2.Labour Minority50% 3.Conservative Minority40% 4.Conservative Majority20% 5.Liberal Democrats largest party0% 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader80% 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader20% 8.BNP pick up one seat0% 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats0% 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats0% 11. Greens pick up a seat0% 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election0% Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: minionofmidas on August 13, 2006, 06:45:36 AM 1.Labour Majority 60% 2.Labour Minority50% 3.Conservative Minority40% 4.Conservative Majority20% 5.Liberal Democrats largest party0% Quote 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader80% 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader20% Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Rural Radical on August 13, 2006, 06:53:56 AM 1.Labour Majority 40% 2.Labour Minority30% 3.Conservative Minority20% 4.Conservative Majority10% 5.Liberal Democrats largest party0% Quote 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader80% 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader20% Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Јas on August 14, 2006, 05:22:06 AM 11. Greens pick up a seat Very unlikely, just about possible As the first person from outside the UK to post... Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive. Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: minionofmidas on August 14, 2006, 07:47:53 AM 11. Greens pick up a seat Very unlikely, just about possible As the first person from outside the UK to post... Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive. Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Јas on August 14, 2006, 11:50:12 AM 11. Greens pick up a seat Very unlikely, just about possible As the first person from outside the UK to post... Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive. :P (It's constantly amazes me how many people over here believe that.) Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: minionofmidas on January 24, 2009, 03:17:45 PM A Labour majority is less likely now than it was in 2006. Otherwise, I stand by my earlier estimates.
Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: AMOLAK MANN on January 24, 2009, 03:34:21 PM con majority seems increasingly likely and everytime people talk about a hung parliament it appears the chances of it recedes.one thing i wouldn't yet bet on is a Con 100+ majority as it needs more net gains than labour in 1997!
Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Verily on January 24, 2009, 08:21:45 PM 1.Labour Majority: 5%
2.Labour Minority: 25% 3.Conservative Minority: 20% 4.Conservative Majority: 50% 5.Liberal Democrats largest party: <1% 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: 90% 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: 10% 8.BNP pick up one seat: 5% 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: <1% 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: 0% 11. Greens pick up a seat: 30% 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: 5% Title: Re: 2009/10 General Election probabilities Post by: Harry Hayfield on January 25, 2009, 08:40:42 AM What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election? Low = 0 - 25% chance, Moderate = 26 - 50%, High = 51% - 75% chance, Likely: 76 - 100% PART I 1.Labour Majority Low 2.Labour Minority Moderate 3.Conservative Minority High 4.Conservative Majority Likely 5.Liberal Democrats largest party Low 6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader Moderate 7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader Moderate 8.BNP pick up one seat Moderate 9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats Low 10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats Low 11. Greens pick up a seat High 12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election Low |