Title: Toss Up state poll averages Post by: mddem2004 on June 15, 2004, 05:20:33 PM Of the seven states that this site lists as "Toss Up" states according to recent polls, 7 are states that Gore won (for a total of 77 EV's) and 4 are states that Bush won (for a total of 56 EV's).
I averaged all the polls listed for these states (dropping polls prior to May because they are getting dated) and came up with the following averages by state. Kerry Leads: Bush Leads: DEAD HEAT PA 46.83 - 44 OH 44.5 - 43.66 OR 44.4 - 44.4 W. VA 45.66 - 45.33 FL 47.5 - 46.75 NH 47 - 43.66 MI 46.37 - 42.5 WI 46 - 43 MN 48 - 42 IA 47 - 45 NM 47 - 44 Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations??? Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: zachman on June 15, 2004, 05:22:41 PM Is this an average of the total poll respondents per state or the average of each poll result?
Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: mddem2004 on June 15, 2004, 05:31:06 PM Is this an average of the total poll respondents per state or the average of each poll result? Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: The Vorlon on June 15, 2004, 06:18:00 PM ()
Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: mddem2004 on June 15, 2004, 06:23:15 PM Vorlorn,
Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know..... Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: The Vorlon on June 15, 2004, 06:40:41 PM Vorlorn, Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know..... Add Edwards to ticket => NC is close Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: Lunar on June 15, 2004, 06:54:47 PM Vorlorn, Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know..... Mason Dixon had Bush up 1 against a Kerry/Edwards ticket but up 7 against a Kerry/somebody ticket. Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: The Vorlon on June 15, 2004, 07:14:00 PM Vorlorn, Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know..... Mason Dixon had Bush up 1 against a Kerry/Edwards ticket but up 7 against a Kerry/somebody ticket. Edwards on ticket => all bets are off. :) Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: WMS on June 28, 2004, 09:56:11 PM Sorry for the delay... If this is still your projection, Vorlon, then there's just one thing to say... New Mexico: 48.0% - 48.0%!!!!! Holy crap! We haven't budged from 2000! It's gonna be hard to find a closer state than this one...yipe! :o Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: ?????????? on June 28, 2004, 09:58:37 PM Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa.
Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: StevenNick on June 28, 2004, 10:08:38 PM Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa. I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington. Jobs are finally starting to return. The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth. Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here. Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office. Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration. Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington. Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: Smash255 on June 29, 2004, 01:41:12 AM Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa. I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington. Jobs are finally starting to return. The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth. Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here. Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office. Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration. Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington. Bush has trailed in EVERY SINGLE WA poll Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: struct310 on June 29, 2004, 04:56:31 AM Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa. I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington. Jobs are finally starting to return. The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth. Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here. Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office. Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration. Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington. Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: millwx on June 29, 2004, 06:00:12 AM Kerry Leads: Bush Leads: DEAD HEAT PA 46.83 - 44 OH 44.5 - 43.66 OR 44.4 - 44.4 W. VA 45.66 - 45.33 FL 47.5 - 46.75 NH 47 - 43.66 MI 46.37 - 42.5 WI 46 - 43 MN 48 - 42 IA 47 - 45 NM 47 - 44 Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations??? PA: Kerry +1.8% WV: Bush +0.4% NH: Kerry +2.1% MI: Kerry +2.5% WI: Kerry +1.2% MN: Kerry +5.0% IA: Kerry +4.5% NM: Kerry +3.3% OH: Bush +1.2% FL: Bush +3.2% OR: Kerry +4.1% So, my only disagreements with you are WV and OR. You have WV to Kerry. My interpretation would yield the same thing, because it's so close, but the straight-up numbers I have make it a tie or slight Bush lean. On the other hand, OR isn't as close as some keep pretending. Yes, my objectivity forced me to include the likely poor Zogby polls which have Kerry up by more. But, I've also included the questionable Rasmussen poll which has Bush up 1% there. In fact, my 4% Kerry lead there is dead on with Public Opinion Strategies... a good firm. I'm tired of hearing all this hoopla about how close OR is. Ditto MN. They are certainly not strong Kerry, but they are significant leans that way. They will not go to Bush unless he wins the national PV by 5+%, in which case, they're irrelevant anyway, as Bush will then take all of the other above states for, effectively, a landslide. Incidentally, my interpretation of the Nader/undecideds is enough to push WV to Kerry +1.5% and OH to Kerry +0.7%. However, Bush has ticked up in recent national polls, so these may well remain in his column... in fact, he may even have pushed WI and PA to a tie... and it's almost unarguable that Bush is ahead in FL (my interpreted results still keep him up 1.7%, the two oldest polls in my poll average are Kerry-friendly, and we have Bush's recent small bump in national polls... Bush is probably about +5% in FL). Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 29, 2004, 07:40:09 AM The reason why NC is apparently "in play" isn't because of demographic factors...
Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: ?????????? on June 29, 2004, 08:09:32 AM See what I'm saying. Florida is NOT going to be close this year...Predictions I've made so far this season that I was laughed at about :
A) The election would be a referendum about Terror/Iraq. B) The economy would improve and jobs would boom. C) Bush will pull ahead in the national polls and solidify Florida. D) Oregon is a tossup. E) Wisconsin is a tossup. My predictions that I stand by but are still unproven: F) Hillary Clinton will be picked as VP. G) Bush will win 348 EVs. Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: mddem2004 on June 30, 2004, 07:19:23 PM Kerry Leads: Bush Leads: DEAD HEAT PA 46.83 - 44 OH 44.5 - 43.66 OR 44.4 - 44.4 W. VA 45.66 - 45.33 FL 47.5 - 46.75 NH 47 - 43.66 MI 46.37 - 42.5 WI 46 - 43 MN 48 - 42 IA 47 - 45 NM 47 - 44 Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations??? PA: Kerry +1.8% WV: Bush +0.4% NH: Kerry +2.1% MI: Kerry +2.5% WI: Kerry +1.2% MN: Kerry +5.0% IA: Kerry +4.5% NM: Kerry +3.3% OH: Bush +1.2% FL: Bush +3.2% OR: Kerry +4.1% So, my only disagreements with you are WV and OR. You have WV to Kerry. My interpretation would yield the same thing, because it's so close, but the straight-up numbers I have make it a tie or slight Bush lean. On the other hand, OR isn't as close as some keep pretending. Yes, my objectivity forced me to include the likely poor Zogby polls which have Kerry up by more. But, I've also included the questionable Rasmussen poll which has Bush up 1% there. In fact, my 4% Kerry lead there is dead on with Public Opinion Strategies... a good firm. I'm tired of hearing all this hoopla about how close OR is. Ditto MN. They are certainly not strong Kerry, but they are significant leans that way. They will not go to Bush unless he wins the national PV by 5+%, in which case, they're irrelevant anyway, as Bush will then take all of the other above states for, effectively, a landslide. Incidentally, my interpretation of the Nader/undecideds is enough to push WV to Kerry +1.5% and OH to Kerry +0.7%. However, Bush has ticked up in recent national polls, so these may well remain in his column... in fact, he may even have pushed WI and PA to a tie... and it's almost unarguable that Bush is ahead in FL (my interpreted results still keep him up 1.7%, the two oldest polls in my poll average are Kerry-friendly, and we have Bush's recent small bump in national polls... Bush is probably about +5% in FL). Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: millwx on June 30, 2004, 07:38:20 PM Great analysis, I won't argue against any of it! Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: bgwah on July 01, 2004, 02:49:26 PM Washington isn't a swing state.
Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: millwx on July 01, 2004, 03:50:32 PM Washington isn't a swing state. Some people are saying Bush can win Washington. Can he? Absolutely! But he needs to gain another 5%, or more. If he does that, and the trend is nationwide, the election will have been long since over, as several other key states (like PA) will fall to Bush. So, WA absolutely is not a battleground state. I view battleground states as states where the election will be decided. "Close" states that are not within 3% in a poll average are not battleground states... because if the person behind catches up in those states then that person is clearly well ahead electorally (in a snapshot on any given day). In other words, that person took the electoral lead long before he caught up in the "close", non-battleground state. AR (Bush), CO (Bush), VA (Bush), MN (Kerry), NM (Kerry), WA (Kerry), OR (Kerry) and IA (Kerry) are the best examples (leader has a lead of 3-5%). These are all close states, but none of them are battlegrounds (subjectively, I disagree and would say that NM is, but the numbers speak for themselves... Kerry is up 3.3% there). Title: Re:Toss Up state poll averages Post by: ?????????? on July 02, 2004, 01:15:17 AM Mill by your theory I believe that Florida is going from battleground to close.
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