Talk Elections

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/election/article/0,1406,KNS_630_5119238,00.html                                         fifty to thirty eight.

Ford, Ford, Ford. Next time try running with some fresh ideas instead of recycled Republican ones. It is quite shocking that Corker is going to win a landslide though.

Great job at winning elections, DLC.

not like Tester is doing great either! He should be wayyyy up. And he had a lot more to work with.

Well at least Ford gave it a good run and forced the RSCC to pump cash here instead of MO and VA.

Hopefully he has a future later. Like someone else said, maybe mayor of Memphis.

Montana is more Republican than TN and Tester still has a better than 50% chance of winning. Ford has about a 10% chance now.

And just one other thing, what about Casey.... he ain't a liberal and he seems to do pretty well. Look, I personally really like Jon Tester... but the party should be open to all.

Of course Casey is doing well, look who he is running against.

Tradesports has
TN 16.8%
MT 63.5%

Of course they may not have fully priced in the latest polls.

I wasn't going by Tradesports here but that basically backs me up anyway.

What happened to Ford?  He was doing so well and admittedly Corker's campaign was in a desultory state at one stage.  I don't care, the DSCC did force the Republicans to spend more money here than they would have liked. 

Montana isn't really much more Republican than Tennesse. Both have Democratic Governors, both have one Democratic House of Congress (Montana then has one tied, Tennessee one GOP). Montana has a Republican House Rep, Tennessee has 6-5 to the Democrats, Tennessee has two Republican senators and Montana has one from each party.

It's true that Bush won Montana by 20% and Tennessee by 14%, by even so the difference isn't THAT big. Finally, Montana seems to be trending Democrat while Tennessee is going in the other direction.

But I admit that all that said, Ford should be doing better than he is.

Maybe the Democrats should try a candidate not from Memphis and not with that bloody surname in future.

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Montana is certainly a less Democratic state than Tennessee. Whether it's more Republican or not, depends on how thee measures things.

Ford will still pull this out, don't worry.

:(

Yes, Ford is done.

I'm really not sure what caused such a dramatic collapse so quick. I always thought Corker would pull it out in the end, but that it would be within 2%.

Ah well... he's young a still has a long carrer ahead of him, I still think (even if it's Mason-Dixon) this poll seems an oddly wide lead for Corker,  at the moment I'd have him winning by 2-4 points... and going on to be a pretty non-descript Senator.

I could care less if Ford loses.

Aw, I was hoping he would win...

I had the same thought, given the nature of the race in the last month and a half, for Ford to drop through the floor so suddenly is very odd. Which is why I think anything with Ford not within 5 is not right.

Oh, stop.  He did fine.  This race wasn't really winable and he made people believe for a few weeks.  He did a nice job.

This race could have been winnable with a white moderate who doesnt come from a corrupt family and that grew up in Tennessee.

Ford was your best choice (along with some of the white moderate Congressmen--but their open seat would go to the GOP).  Against another candidate, Corker would be leading by at least 10 points all year.

yes obviously a jed lamont dailykos liberal would have a much better chance at winning in tn than a moderate.

Why are people, especially Democrats, tearing Ford apart?  This is one poll in any case I find it hard to believe Ford is at just 38%.  He has been around the 43%-47% since around September according to most polls.  And at one stage Corker and the state GOP were really bleeding; Ford has run a very effective campaign.  I still think Corker will win but by around 51%-52% to Ford's 47%-48% and incidentally I don't think this is the last we have heard of Harold Ford.  Maybe in a future Democratic administration he would make a good Attorney General. 

If there's one Mason-Dixon poll that I think is probably an outlier, it's this one.

Why this rather than RI?  Your "lack of confidence" in RI polling?

Yes.  Additionally, Charlie Cook's statement of a couple of days ago that Burns and Chafee had move back to being roughly even and had momentum on their side.

He's a smart guy, but in the House, he's become too reliant on his own Cook/RT Strategies polling, which is hurting his objectivity.  I can't see the Republicans losing less than 20 seats in the House and I could definitely see them losing 40-45 in a wave, but he's seeing things there that are not happening.

It is just silly to blame Ford for this loss - the man is a black running in Tennessee.

Like Fleming?

Ford ran one of the best campaigns out of any candidate in the entire nation, but this was a really tough race for him to win. He had the lead for a week or so, but Corker revitalized his campaign and should win by about four points, maybe a similar margin that Gore lost the state by. This poll is definitely an outlier.