Talk Elections

None yet, but might break soon.

http://www.rawstory.com/
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/7/165830/095

No raw numbers but exit polls are showing that that corruption was the #1 issue for voters. 62% voted on national issues versus 33% on local issues.

corruption?  instead of iraq or the economy?  i don't think so

1. Corruption
2. Terrorism
3. Economy
4. Iraq

All were very close.

In addition, a majority of voters said that both Democrats and Republicans were capable of defending against terrorism - a big switch from 2004.

Here they are

Corruption 42%
Terrorism 40%
Economy 39%
Iraq 37%

i don't buy it

I thought maybe there'd be more exciting information leaked.

CNN is discussing exit poll internals.  More to follow....

They are talking about these polls on CNN.

I am not arguing the questions, I am doubting the results.  If the exit poll were limitied to a single state like OH, then I could believe those results.  But nationwide?  I highly doubt it.

Sounds like Allen will lose.  That's the vibe Sean Hannity is giving.

CNN confirms the numerical breakdown of the top four issues that jfern posted, with corruption being 1st.  The talking heads are saying that it doesn't mean that much because the voters were simply asked if the issue was "extremely important", not if it's their top issue.

If Allen loses, the GOP will probably lose the Senate.

I disagree..... Allen I think will lose.... that said, I think Chafee has got a really good shot.... Montana looks democratic as well...... Chafee might save the senate...

Probably, but RI and MO still have to go in the Dem's favor, plus Montana (which I think will be easier).

If Chafee saves the Senate, that would be so ironic.

And if Chafee were to switch parties after he won and swing the balance back to the Democrats after the Republican Senatorial Committee helped him win, that would be the ultimate in irony.  Or backstabbing, I'm not sure which.

I hate to be a party pooper, but I'm still working the campaign here in MI, so somebody PM me the instant that the exit polls are released.  I DON'T have time to stay on.  G2g

Question--

How in the world is it that fewer than 50% identified corruption, Iraq, the economy and terrorism as a "top issue"?  You'd think they'd all be much higher.

ok, i misread it

Didn't notice that it all added up to a lot more than 100%? :P

nope.  But now that I understand it, I don't tell me a whole lot.

From myddDemocrats leading in:
VA: 53-46
RI: 53-46
PA: 57-42
OH: 57-43
NJ: 53-45
MT: 53-46
MO: 50-48
Republicans leading:
TN: 51-48
AZ: 50-46
Double super caution: These numebrs are both unconfirmed and they are exit polls. I am going to keep looking into this.

time for me to go vote...see ya later

Oh, wow, real (or fake) exit polls. Seeing as not everyone has voted yet, they're not so reliable, but here they are sorted by margin for Dem

NJ 8
VA 7
RI 7
MT 7
OH 6
PA 5
MO 2 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN -3
AZ -4

If these preliminary results are correct, it all comes down to Missouri.

Right now the GOP Senate odds are holding steady at 68%.

Sean Hannity said the numbers indicated a Republican wipeout.  I suspect the exit polls will be pretty good this year.

any news on MI? or Govs?

From The New Republic:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/theplank?pid=55218

These are allegedly second wave exits:

D/R

OH: 63.7/36.3

CT: 47.6/44.5 (Lieberman[!])

NJ: 59.7/42.1

TN: 50/50

RI: 55.4/44.6

VA: 55.8/44.2

MO: 53.3/46.7

Nothing for MT, AZ or MD yet.

More from Ryan Lizza at TNR:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/theplank?pid=55228

"I've now seen about five different sets of "exit polls" from sources of varying degrees of credibility. Every set has a different spread for almost every race, but what they all have in common is that they show Democrats ahead in VA, RI, PA, OH, NJ, MT, MO, and MD, and either down or tied in TN.

Take it all with many grains of salt."

Ryan Lizza keeps posting new numbers on the Plank:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/theplank

so just go there if you want the numbers.  I won't repost all of them.

Is Dave updating the maps on the front page when the actual results are in?

 I still have nightmares about that afternoon in 2004 when I heard that the exit polls had Kerry winning big. Has exit poll methodology changed significantly since then?

Lieberman is behind in the exit poll!!!!?????!!!!!!????

(Trying to keep myself from getting excited, they have to be wrong.)

The sound you hear is my jaw hitting the floor.

Now I just have to hope that this isn't way off. :P

I bet ballot placement is really killing Lieberman too...

I'm not so sure....all the Republicans in VA seem beyond depressed. Plus it would confirm the SUSA poll (Webb +8).

that's the way it looks now

There is no question that Lamont has the much, much, much better turnout and ground game than Lieberman does. Everyone accepts that as fact. That said, and as much I would love to Lamont pull this off, I have a hard time believing that a superior turnout operation can win a race for a candidate that has consistently trailed in the polls by low double-digits. So I would still bet on Lieberman to pull this out although I would LOVE to be proven wong on this one.

If Lamont won, that would easily be the upset of the election.

...even if Lamont came within 5% of Lieberman that would be amazing.

I'm sorry, but that will NOT happen

EDIT: referring to GABU

...which is why I said it would easily be the upset of the election.

By which I meant it's ridiculously unlikely.

right, but then any unlikely thing is an upset--it just seemed like you thought it could happen.

I was more commenting on that one exit poll showing a slim lead for Lamont - I was saying that it would be the upset of the election if Lamont won, which I had intended to mean that I didn't think it'd happen.

Sorry for the confusion. :P

what's with the lull?  it's been an hr. since the last one.

MSNBC just called VT for Sanders.

CNN just released details on the Virginia exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html

Yeah, that would mean Webbie is up around 3% in that exit poll.

I hate exit polls.  Now I know Allen's going to win by 5%.

They were passing out that exact exit poll at my polling place in Virginia.

I doubt it.

Casey (D) 61 - Santorum 38 (R)

Cardin (D) 51 - Steele 48 (R)

McCaskill (D)53 - Talent 46 (R)

Webb 55 (D) - Allen 45 (R)


http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Observer_Fox_polls_show_gains_for_1107.html

cnn:

sen:
wv--dem
vt--i
in--rep



gov--oh--dem

In 2004 they said Montana was too close to call. GO figure. :P

MI races have both been called Dem by EPIC/Freep