Talk Elections

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Kentucky is already starting to come in.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/KY/index.html

Indiana too.  Here are the CNN links I posted from the other topic:

Indiana (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/IN/)
Kentucky (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/KY/)

The county results (few as they are) in KY-4 look fairly promising; but it's very, very early days on them.

Why is that?  I don't really know much of anything about KY-4.

15% of KY-3 is in; Yarmouth has a three point lead

Problem is with KY-03, without precinct numbers, you don't know what's going on.

Yep, very true. For all we know, this could be the black parts of Louisville reporting (in which case Yarmouth is finished) or the white collar parts ('' '' Northup finished).

37% of KY-3 in. Lead is the same.

Wish I could remember what early precincts usually come in.

Half a dozen states are about to close, including the rest of Indiana and Kentucky.

Ellsworth way up with 12% in...

GOP by 8% in KY02 with 3% in.

National Exit Poll (CNN) (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html)

Al, any thoughts abourt the national exit poll?  I'm unsure regarding what to think about it (assuming it's reasonably accurate, which is not a guarantee).

Chandler way up with 10% in. (KY-06)

Rogers way up with 6% in (KY-05)

 If the exit polls are accurate, this will be a big Democratic night. But that's a big if.

Northup ahead by 400 votes, 53% in

CNN has projected KY-05 for Rogers (R) and 06 for Chandler (D). Both are leading by large margins early in the count and face no significant challenge.

Wow the exit poll asks sexual orientation

A quick scan of the county numbers for KY-2 show that it could be very close

It appears CNN has called the VT AL seat for the Dem (Welch) based on exit polling (no precincts reporting).  This was a long-shot pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

CNN has called:

IN-05 Republican
KY-05 Republican
KY-06 Democrat
VT-AL Democrat

Hi Nick :)

We weren't expecting that were we?

And NickG: hi, haven't seen you since '04.

Ah, you beat me by one minute on that one. ;)

Hey Al....Yeah, its been a long time,

Ellsworth has a biiiiiiig lead in IN-8; some of the coalfield counties reported early (and voted for him by huge margins).
Hill leads in IN-9 with sod all counted, and IN-2 is pretty much tied.

Damn, Hostettler is getting clobbered, at least currently.

Eugene Debs's old patch turned out to vote ;D

KY-03 is at 64%; Yarmuth still leads, now by 2,616 votes.

A few more votes in, and Sodrel leads in IN-9. The lead in this district could play ping-pong...

Oh and with about the same counted as the 9th, IN-3 is rather close.

IN-03 wasn't supposed to be close, was it?

Counties reporting in IN-9 are, on the whole, strongly Republican.

IN 07 has started to close up...(from huge democratic numbers earlier)

KY-04 is sure taking their sweet time to count the votes.

okay, al, in your opinion is northup going to pull through?

That would depend on which parts of Louisville be left to count; if the areas left are mostly white collar she can still pull through. If not...

Weaver leads in KY-2

Yarmuth increasing lead w/ 74% in....now 3.5K

Hill takes back lead in IN-9. Tight, very tight.

Donelly makes a big move v. Chocola with 26% in....up by 9K.

Is there any good website for nationwide House race results?  CNN is OK, but the site is slightly annoying to navigate.

Wow. This was one of the races to watch wasn't it? One of the races the pundits said that if it flips to the Dems that Democrats are going to have a huge night?

81% in in KY-3; 4,000 or so lead for Yarmuth

Probably not in the Top 20, but in the Top 40.

"Foley" has a 49-48 lead over Mahoney in FL-16 with only 10% of precincts in.

some polls had yarmuth by 6

Carson (D) is having problems in IN-7

When  are they going to call IN-08?

Not looking good for Dems in FL-13....Buchanan up by 8% w/ 38% in.

Exactly what I mean. If the Dems are winning a race that is in the top 40, CW would say that means they are likely to have night of around 30 pickups at least.

I agree with Deano for once...things are looking very good for Democrats, as far as I can tell.

Mahoney now leads "Foley" 50-47, with 13% in.

CNN declares Ellsworth the winner in the 8th. Hostettler has finally lost! :D

Yeah! 14 to go. First pickup, unless you count VT-AL, which I don't.

Yeah, VT doesn't count.  First real pickup for the Dems.

Yarmuth leads by 3.6K with 83% reporting. Anyone know which counties/precincts are left and which candidate they would help?

Carson is the incumbent, FWIW.

Daily Kos is reporting that in NH-02 Bass was defeated by Hodes. I can't figure out where they got the info from however.....

Retracted

Well the early results here look REALLY good for Hodes.

First numbers from WV; Mollohan has a big lead, Capito a narrow one. Only a handful of votes counted yet.

Kentucky update:

KY-2: 20% counted, very close
KY-3: 88% counted now. Margin same as before, basically.
KY-4: Finally we have some real numbers! 28% counted and very close.

With 36% reporting, Kellam is up by 1 vote on Drake in VA-02.  Haha.

I kinda hope there at least a few races that are so close that we need to wait a few days to figure out who won.

What's a Democracy anyways without razor-thin victory margins and protestors from each side declaring their candidate the winner?

57% reporting and Drake is up 2.6K.

Book it for Yarmuth....96% in.

Yup... Northup's done. Nice job SurveyUSA on this race.

CT: Shays leads, Simmons and Johnson trail. Not many votes in in either case.

WV-1: Mollohan landslide

Murphy leading Fitz in PA-8 57-43, but with only eight Dem precincts reporting (KYW).

GA-08 going to the line

There's going to be a lots of Democratic incumbent landslides. Lots of wasted votes.

Stephanie Herseth wins :)

Sodrel and Chocola continue to be down in the numbers

However, prospects for Republicans are a bit brighter in Georgia.

Freepers are going nutso... must be a good night for the Dems

Most of the early reporting counties in GA are strongly Republican. Still, this could be a bright spot for the GOP.

Aye, but Mollohan was thought of as vulnerable by some. Capito should pull through, but not enough has reported to be sure.

Democrats get 3rd pickup - Chocola's done according to CNN.com

52% counted: KY-4 remains extremely close

Looks like Republicans will retain FL-13 ... no call yet, but there are not many voters left and Jennings is down 2.

Hill is still up 2 percent with 67 percent counted.

Lucas within 1 percent in KY-04 -- 54 percent counted

Pennsylvania House update:

PA-3: a quarter counted and rather close. Suprising.
PA-4: not much counted and Hart down big
PA-6: even less counted and Gerlach trailing
PA-7: 16% in and Weldon down double digits
PA-8: 9% in and a small leader for Murphy
PA-10: 24% in and Sherwood down double digits

Yeah baby indiana is going BLUE!!!!! Even though it's red here. :)

Ellsworth, Donnelly, Hill

Just now reporting on the 3rd.

GA-08: 41% counted, Collins (R) up by 900

Kleeb leads in NE-3!





Only 1% counted, but it had to be said ;D

PA-6 is now at 9% with Gerlach leading.  Probably GOP areas reporting.

DAMNIT! Not that this race is over already or anything, but I am REALY REALLY hoping that we completely shut out the GOP from picking up any Democratic-held House, Senate or Gov seat. That has never happened before in any election.

Even in 1994 The Democrats took out 4 incumbent Republicans.

Georgia is a special case, the Republicans just drew a mid-decade gerrymander designed to defeat our candidate in that seat.

Bearing in mind the polarised politics of George, tis best to check which areas are in before paying (much) attention to the results.

Weldon is in deep doo-doo, methinks...

56-44, 44 percent reporting

Sestack hold 56%-44% lead over Weldon in PA 7, 44% of the precincts counted.

A lot of New York districts are looking close

Walsh-Maffei tied in NY-25, about 31 percent in.

If Dems take this, they may be headed for 30 seats.


Also Bass down 8 in New Hampshire

Hill still up 2 points on Sodrel,

77 percent in...

I think about half the votes are in in CO-07

Looks like an easy Dem pickup, 55-43

38% in; Boyda leads Ryun in KS-2

Kentucky update: Whitfield called as winner in KY-1 (by about 20pts; less than generally expected), Lewis seems to be pulling away in KY-2 (not checked county figures though) and KY-4 is extremely close.

Very interesting in KY-04.

Davis is only up about 500 votes with 3/4s of the vote counted

Georgia update: 8th and 12th both very close. Barrow was trailing badly earlier and seems to have gained ground.

Edit: only 14% of Bibb county is in. Good news for Marshall.

CT-5, NH-2, and IN-09 all called for Dems, according to MSNBC.

I'm surprised they called IN-9 that quickly, in a way.

FOX calls OH-18 and PA-10 for the Democrats

PA update:

PA-3: I'm amazed at how close this is... English only leads by 5pts
PA-4: 30% counted, Hart down double digits.
PA-6: 13% counted, Murphy leads
PA-7: 50% counted, looks very, very bad for Weldon
PA-8: 28% counted, Murphy leads but it's close
PA-10: 56% counted, Sherwood down double digits

82% counted in OH-15... and only about a hundred betwixed the two candidates.

PA 08 Bucks wards:

http://www.buckscountyelections.org/DistrictResults.aspx?on=060&dft=0&dfv=&rlt=0&rlc=

Just from eyeballing these, many of these are in lower (more democratic) Bucks.

Bristol boro/twp are pretty dem, falls dem but less so, Bensalem probably equally dem...middletown swing,

feel free to ask about the other wards

Blasdel wins in Ohio for the Democrats

That's a Dem HOLD, not a pickup.

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but Drake holds on in VA-2.

Hodes has won in NH

Davis wins in KY-04... GOP Hold

And Shea-Porter is barely ahead in NH-1.

Would be kind of funny if NH kicked out its representatives en masse.

Verily -- whats the deal with Melissa Hart in PA-04? She's down big.

Giffords destroying Graf in AZ-8...

56-41, 44 percent in

OH 2:

Schmidt 53
Wulsin 47

48% reporting

http://vaderno.ytmnd.com

WUSLIN YOU CAN DO IT

Barrow ahead 4 points with 64 percent in

Marhsall down 4 with 56 percent

In PA-4, the gap has closed to 6pts as Butler county (Hart's stronghold) reports.
Not a vote out of heavily Democratic Beaver county yet.

CNN finally calls Ney's seat for the Democrats

I hope Hart loses because that was my "surprise call" on the surprise thread :)

As a bit of comic relief to ease the tension:

The Democratic candidate in NY-28 has an appropriate name for the results so far. ;)

FOX News prediction:

Nancy Johnson loses in CT-5

Northhampton Twp starting to report in Bucks...fairly republican

Souder wins in IN-03 according to FOX News.

Weldon done per CNN

I don't see too many more Dem wards left to report....well to put it this way...seems like plenty more GOP districts to report relative to the dems.

Murphy's doing better in some areas but I think he's gonna run out of gas.

Altmire's lead in PA-04 is shrinking.

46 percent reporting in PA-06 and Gerlach is down 4.

Fitzpatrick down 2, 44 percent reporting

80 percent reporting and Sherwood is down 8.

Don't know if this has said before, but CNN just called NC-11 for Shuler.

FOX calls a Carney win in PA-10, Sherwood is done.

Fitz, Hart and Gerlach all win, the GOP might hold the House.  (No that is not a prediction.)

Bonilla at 49 percent... narrowly going to cause a runoff, maybe.
Less than 20 percent counted.

Bucks

Democrat
Patrick J. Murphy  66186  
 50.3%
Republican
Michael G. Fitzpatrick  65459  
 49.7%

187 of 309 precincts reporting

JJ - The House is gone.

Doesn't matter if Hart Gerlach and Fitz win or not, IMO.

I don't think they'll do it, Gerlach in particular, but I'm surprised he's that close.

MSNBC just predicted D with 231, plus or minus 10 seats.

CNN chimes in on CT-05, Johnson is done.

NOOO!!!!

I met her this weekend and she was awesome!

Shea-Porter is winning by 4000 votes with 91% reporting.  Weird.

Fitz trails in bucks by 400 votes, 80 or so precincts to report (generally republican) but...I don't think Montco has reported...and this may be good news for murphy.

I think I called KS-02. Gotta check my thread though and make sure :)

CNN predicts 3 seats going to Dems in the House

IN-09
FL-22
AZ-08

Sweeney has lost in NY-20

Gillibrand has ousted Sweeney!
Klein has ousted Shaw!

I am also very upset with this. I went to school at Ohio State in this district. Deborah Pryce is terrible and dosen't fit the district well. She deserved to lose badly. Who would have thought we don't pick up OH-15 but we pick up a seat in frickin' Kansas?

Shea-Porter will win!

I will be ecstatic if Shaw loses.

Leach is tied in IA-02 with 30 percent counted. Wow

Democrats will win the House

CNN calls it

Speaker Pelosi

I'm starting to really worry in PA-08.

How big a majority are the networks and cable news predicting Democrats will have at this point?  The last I heard, MSNBC is projecting that Democrats will have 231 seats...with ten seats that could go either way. 

 New England sweep?

 Hoades and Murphy have already won. Shea-Porter is about to win (!).

 The other two CT seats are still at about 50/50.

 Will Democrats win all House seats in New England?

CNN calls NY-20 for Gillibrand!!! Oh hell yeah!!!

King wins NY-3

Fitz has taken the lead in Bucks...but can he put up a margin to cover whatever murphy leads might surface in philly and montco?

NY-24 has been called for Dems on CNN.com

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/NE/

Look at Nerbaska
Its early though.

hopefullly simmons and shays will hold in ct.

Shays down 3 in CT-04 .. 48 percent reported

Simmons up 2 in CT-02. .. 64 percent reported.

Kissell is also doing well.

NH-01 called for the Dems.

Kagen leads in WI-8

Northeastern Republicans are getting completely wiped out.

Murphy may have done it. May have taken a seat not held by a dem since Jan 1993.

Fitz needs to increase his lead in Bucks...big and fast...

:-/

Bradley's loss is a huge upset.

Hayworth down 7 points in AZ-05, almost 80 percent counted.

Some Freepers reporting that Lampson has been declared the winner in TX-22.

Also Sue Kelly is down 2 points in NY-19 with quite a bit counted.

so if simmons and shays both go down, there will be 0 gop house members in new england.  sad.

Fitz has some GOP leaning wards left...but they're not likely to come in strong enough.

I'm gonna call this for Murphy...and choke on my own vomit.

PA-4 update; with 95% counted, Hart trails by 6pts

Hart is done IMO

I called that one too as the surprise of the night. Yay

CNN calls Mitchell as the winner over Hayworth

Thank god Hayworth is finally gone.

Wulsin is close.

I could do with some sleep now...

Simmons up about 1200 votes, 72 percent counted.

GOD bless America.

That blew me away when I saw what happened in NH. I never would have seen it coming. :o

Looks like Hall will win too.

CNN says Reynolds is going to survive in NY-26.

Thank the snowstorm, Tom... Thank the snowstorm.

Melissa Hart is done per CNN.

Boyda looking good.

I'm thinking Dems get at least 24 seats, up to 32 seats...

Schmidt's lead drops to two percent.

Another crazy lady, Babs Cubin, might be in trouble.

I'm thinking over 30 seats now. John Hall is on the verge of beating Sue Kelly in NY-19 for crying out loud.

Yeah, but all those other NY GOPers are going to survive.

Reynolds, Walsh, Kuhl...

FOX News calls TX-22 for Nick Lampson.

Bonilla still below 50 percent in TX-23.

Trauner is also leading Cubin!

Pryce wins per FOX News
Walsh wins per FOX News


Melissa Bean to hold as well, per FOX.

WY-AL will be ours!

THe exit polls say Trauner by about 5%. But I don't really trust those anymore...

Dems have already picked up 23 seats.....I am going to say they end up picking up 30 at the very least.

How many Murphys will there be? like 4?

Boyda has won.

Murphy Leads in PA 08, but Fitz is slowly expanding his small lead in bucks...dunno if there are enough votes left but its possible.

Anyone know about Leach and Loesback in IA-02???

Stender can win.

Close races still left out there...

CA-11, McNerney with a 2 point lead on Pombo, 20 percent in
CO-04, Musgrave up 1, 24 percent in
CT-02, Simmons ahead with 1500 votes, 86 percent in
CT-04, Shays up 3, 60 percent in
MN-01, Gutknecht down 4, 50 percent in
NV-03, Porter up 2, 5 percent in
NM-01, Madrid up less than 1000 votes, 17 percent in
OH-01, Chabot up 2, 69 percent in
OH-02, Schmidt up 2, 94 percent in
PA-06, Murphy up 2, 60 percent in
PA-08, Murphy up 1500 votes, 87 percent in
WY-AL, Trauner up 400 votes, 81 percent in

CNN called IA-01 for the Dems

Also Boswell will hangon, per CNN

I have Dems +20 right now, with potential for about 12 more at most... seem right?

Braley has won/

Walz looks like a winner.

Esch (D) leads in NE-02 by 6%, but with only 12% reporting.

Walz will win in MN-01. Bachmann will hold the seat in MN-06.

Hall is almost def win now.

CNN has called KS-02 for the DEMOCRAT.

Leach looks finished in IA-02, and Gard is definitely finished in WI-08.


You're behind the times. That was almost 15 minutes ago ;)

MSNBC called PA-04 for Altmire....they didn't even have a picture of either candidate, I assume because it was off their radar.

:(

It still excited me when I saw it.  Sue me.

Looking at the CNN county-by-county data, Bucks county is mostly in while Philadelphia and Montgomery county are where most of the rest of the votes still have to be counted..and both counties are going for Murphy. It really looks like Democrats are going to sweep PA.

Bonilla is being held below 50% in TX-23 with 70% reporting. All of his opponents are Democrats save one Independent.

I was just gonna say...looking at the remaining wards in Bucks...Fitz will gain votes on murphy, but it doesn't look like he's got 1400 votes or more in him.

Sad. Fitz was a good guy who ran into a seachange.

Leach is still alive but in big trouble IMO...

I do think that Sue Kelly will lose.

It made me excited, too. Almost as much as NH-01. I just hope the Democrats manage to sweep New England. That would be sweet.

Heller and Porter hold very slim leads over their Dem challengers in Nevada with low reporting rates.

and as I say that...Fitz's lead in bucks expands

Representative in Congress 1  Vote for 1 View Results by District
Democrat
Patrick J. Murphy  114610  
 49.8%
Republican
Michael G. Fitzpatrick  115755  
 50.2%

but only 3 more precincts remaining but 2 of those seem democratic...

so unless montco tightens up...its done.

Looking better for Shays.

Wouldn't it be bizarre if Shays wins and Johnson and Simmons lose? I mean, wow.

Reichert narrowly leads Burner in early results in WA-08. Only 16% reporting.

WI-8 looks like it's going to the democrat which is a little surprising but Doyle had actual coattails in normaly republican counties up north.

WY-AL looking really good for Dems again.

Anyone want to explain why TX-22 hasn't been called yet with 92% reporting and Lampson ahead by 14%?!

Any one else really want the Reps to dip below to the 100s in seats?

Probably just the usual reluctance by the media to call something that seems surprising to them until everything is in and certified.

Looks like MUrphy has defeated Fitz.

McNerney leads narrowly in CA-11 with only 22% in.

The Murphys have pulled it off in Pennsylvania. The Democrats pick up 5 (!!!) seats in PA.

I dunno if this has been asked yet, but will FL-13 be going to a recount?  Jennings came agonizingly close.

Courtney ahead
Murphy leading Gerlach.

Madrid and Wilson are neck-and-neck with 58% reporting. Madrid leads by about 900 votes.

FL-13 is VERY tight... 364 vote lead for Buchanan... wow

Almost certainly, I think. Buchanan won by less than 400 votes, which is something like 0.02%.

CNN calls MN-06 for Michelle Bachmann, the Republican.

No. They have already picked up 23. CNN is forecasting Dem gains of 28-36, 28 at the very minimum.

CT-02 is agonizingly close, but I think Courtney will pull through.

Shays has done it in CT-04. He will be the only Republican from New England in the 110th Congress.

*watches BRTD go off in rage* ;)

Porter is only 1% up in NV-03 with 16% reporting.

Does anyone know if the absentees are included in the totals?

It was only +20 thirty months ago.

My forecast was 20-32, CNN says 28-36. There's some overlap there. Both CNN and I can still be correct.

Terry (R) leads Esch by only 2% in NE-02 with 30% reporting.

Does anyone think Titus still has a shot at upsetting Gibbons?

Reichert is 1,500 exactly ahead of Burner with 16% reporting.

nm-01 is very tight.

Grant is now 13% ahead of Sali with 16% reporting in ID-01.

94 percent reporting, Cubin ahead about 400 votes

Governors' thread!

Madrid has slightly increased her lead on Wilson. It's still very tight.

VT-AL
IN-08
KY-03
NH-02
IN-02
IN-09
CT-05
PA-07
OH-18
NC-11
AZ-08
PA-10
NH-01
FL-16
FL-22
NY-20
TX-22
NY-24
AZ-05
PA-04
CO-07
IA-01
KS-02

23 seats, 22 if you don't count VT-AL.

McNerney keeps a narrow lead with 26% reporting.

4000 votes separate Schmidt and Wulsin, with 99% in.

MN-01 should be called for Walz any minute now.

I didn't have CO-07 down, CNN.com doesn't have it officially called yet. Though obviously the Dem will win. Missed FL-22, too.

Well..assuming the absentee ballots are in, PA-08 has gone to the dark side.

But have they been counted...if not, this show isn't over.

CT-02 is narrowing again. It's almost as close as FL-13. 95% reporting, Courtney ahead by 421 votes.

Madrid leads Wilson by 1,800 with 83% reporting. Wilson won't be able to pull back.

CO-07 is coming in SLOWLY. Still only 14% in. Perlmutter should win big, though.

Leach is 1,089 votes behind in IA-02 with 94% reporting. This one may be as close as CT-02.

For some reason there wasn't a big hullaballoo made about Klein defeating Shaw even though that was one of the top tier of targeted races.

Show's not over, but it's not looking good for you guys.

PA-6 on the other hand, I'd hold out hope because Chester has yet to be counted.

2300 votes separate Schmidt and Wulsin.

DAMN YOU SCHMIDT

DAMN YOOOOOOOOUuuughgfhjgkyou needed to leave damnit

CNN STILL hasn't called TX-22 despite Lampson leading by 15% and 95% reporting. Strange.

I wish so badly that Hackett had stayed in this race. If Wulsin is doing this well, Hackett would have destroyed Schmidt.

What a pathetically weak candidate Schmidt is. This district is EASILY 65% Republican yet she can barely defeat a liberal challenger. What a frickin joke this idiot is........

Do you know if absentee ballots have been counted (shot in the dark here)..?

It's over in OH-2. :( :( :(

2008 DEMOCRATS

FREAKING FIND SOMEONE TO BEAT SCHMIDT IT CAN'T BE THAT HARD

Hackett would have thrashed her. But he didn't want to run. :(

Looks like Marshall will llose in GA..

Courtney leads by 560 votes in CT-02 with 96% reporting. This is a nailbiter.

23% in ID-01... Grant still leading, 45-43.

Loebsack leads by 508 votes in IA-02 with 97% reporting. ANOTHER nailbiter.

Not sure if anyone posted it yet, but my district hasn't gone the way I had hoped.  Just got back from the Nassau Democratic Party where Mejias gave his concession speech

with 97 percent reporting King is up 56-44%

For PA-6 or PA-8?  Go to CNN and look at county breakdown.  It does not look good fro Fitz.

PA-6 on the other hand there's still a lot in Chester County needing to be counted with Lois up 2.

It was mentioned pretty early on when CNN called it. A pity, but Mejias did much better than many previous challengers to King. A few more election cycles and King will be voted out.

NY-19 called for Hall!

MN-01 has been called for Walz.

What I was asking was...is that all ballots counted (yes 100% precincts...) or do absentee ballots get counted say...tomorrow?

I'm assuming its over...and I'm gonna have to live with Murphy...who knows, maybe I'll end up liking him...but if I don't...08 won't come soon enough.

McNerney leads Pombo by 1.4 % in CA-11 with 31.3 % of precincts counted.

So close in NY-25.  However there are 13,000 absentee ballots and Walsh leads by only 4,000.  Still a chance.  Damn rural voters of Wayne County.

Leach has lost in IA-02. With 99% reporting, he's down 612 votes.

Kagen has won WI-08. (ddint know if that was posted already)

Wahlberg (who ousted Schwarz in the primary) is facing a surprisingly tough battle in MI-07; he's up by only 5% with 83% reporting. He'll win, but it was quite close.

Cubin leads by 653 votes with 98% reporting. She's probably won, sadly.

Walz has won

The remaining votes are in one of Trauner's strongest county.  This one comes down within 200 votes either way.

Here's what's left:

36 Seats

CA-04
CA-11
CA-36
CA-39
CA-43
CA-47
CA-50
CO-04
CO-07
CT-02
CT-04
GA-08
GA-12
IA-02
ID-01
LA-02
MI-07
MI-08
MI-09
MI-11
NC-08
NE-01
NE-02
NE-03
NM-01
NV-02
NV-03
OH-02
OH-15
PA-06
PA-08
TX-22
TX-23
WA-05
WA-08
WY-AL

Carbon County, right? Then maybe Trauner will win, very narrowly.

Simmons now down only 239 votes in CT-02... This is a tight one, wow

CNN finally called FL-13 for Buchanan. I guess there will be no recount.

Leach can't win IA-02. The two counties that haven't fully reported are Loebsack's strongest.

Porter leads Hafen by only 1% with 63% reported in NV-03.

They've finnaly called a Lampson victory

I assume it's for the special and the general?

CNN finally calls for Lampson and for Dems in CO-07

I was so pissed off when I heard that. Its amazing he survived a Governor and Senator landslide and a nationally pro-Democratic year.

BRTD must be really annoyed that Bachmann won. That was another surprise.

Connecticut Update:

#2- To Close to Call. Courtney (D) is 239 votes ahead with 97% reporting.

#4- Shays is re-elected!!!! I'm okay with that b/c he's my favorite House Republican.

#5- The wicked witch Nancy Johnson is defeated. I had thought that she'd only go if Shays did as well.

If Courtney holds on to his lead, Chris Shays will be the only Republican Representative left in New England.

Fortenberry survives in NE-01.

Bonilla is still under 50% with 80% reporting.

McNerney increases lead over Pombo to 1,500 votes in CA-11with 1/3 of the precincts reporting.

Porter leads by 3,460 votes in NV-03, with 82% reporting.

Grant and Sali are still neck-and-neck (for Idaho standards) in ID-01 with 43% reporting; the results currently are 46-49, respectively.

I wonder why New York (unlike PA, especially) wasn't a total disaster for the GOP. I thought Reynolds would lose, and Pete King's double-digit win was odd, too.

And, yeah ... it is offensive to me that the GOP is reduced to one seat in New England (oddly enough from the fellow who supported the Iraq war the strongest among his state House delegation)

Here's my guesses right now, using CNN's list of races still uncalled.

CA-04 - R hold
CA-11 - D pickup
CA-36 - D hold
CA-39 - D hold
CA-43 - D hold
CA-47 - D hold
CA-50 - R hold
CO-04 - R hold
CT-02 - D pickup
CT-04 - R hold
GA-08 - R pickup
GA-12 - D hold
IA-02 - D pickup
ID-01 - R hold
LA-02 - D hold
MI-07 - R hold
MI-08 - R hold
MI-09 - R hold
MI-11  - R hold
NC-08 - R hold
NE-02 - R hold
NE-03 - R hold
NM-01 - D pickup
NV-02 - R hold
NV-03 - R hold
OH-02 - R hold
OH-15 - R hold
PA-06 - D pickup
PA-08 - D pickup
TX-23 - R hold
WA-05 - R hold
WA-08 - R hold
WY-AL - R hold

+6 net for Dems

+31 net for Dems when it's all over

By the way, I'm not sure if anyone's mentioned LA-02 yet, but Jefferson is only at 30%, with Carter close behind at 22%.  This will almost surely go into a runoff that Carter will win.

239 vote deficit for Simmons in CT-02

Pretty damn close.

It depends on who the LA GOP tacitly decides to endorse.

It was former Republican governor Pat Treen's support that put Jefferson into the House

MI-11 finally called for GOP.

Marshall pulls ahead in GA-08 by just over 700 votes.

Can I just say that I'm shocked that the Dems picked up PA-06...and not to mention sweeped all the PA seats?

The only place I'm thrown off is PA-10...I thought Carney would do much better. I just lost a lot of respect for 47% of PA-10.

MI-08 called for the GOP.

Actually, it's looking possible that Gerlach will hold while the rest of the Republicans lose. And Gerlach was thought by many to be the most vulnerable (before Sherwood's scandals, that is)!

Awesome!!!

For the first time in history it looks like one party will not defeat a single incumbent of the other party.....knock on wood.

Gerlach is like Teflon or something... good grief.

Yea, it looks like Gerlach could squeek this out. Less then half the results are in from Chester county, which is Gerlach country.

Leach is gone, btw. He collapsed in the final few votes. He's down nearly 6,000 votes with 99% reported.

Cubin leads by exactly 700 votes over Trauner.

CA-36, CA-39 called for Dems per CNN

Now just 28 seats left.

Dems lead 224-183

Also IA-02 called for Dems per CNN.

Great ! Kirsten Gilibrand won too ! :)

CA-50 called for the GOP

Wilson has taken back the lead in NM-01 by 310 votes with just 5% unaccounted for.

44% of precincts reporting in CA-11; McNerney extends lead over Pombo to 2,700.

Looks like Porter won in NV-03, but CNN has NOT called the race yet.

Also Reichert has an early 4 percent lead on Burner.

Hayes appears to have won NC-08 by 468 votes, but CNN hasn't called it yet.

Sanchez wins CA-47, called by CNN.

Porter wins in NV-03, called by CNN.

CA-43 called for Democrats

CT-04 called for Shays by CNN

Gene Taylor won with 80% of the vote.

I wonder MS-4 has the biggest difference with '06 and '04 presidential.

NV-02 called for GOP, per CNN.

22 Seats are left now...

CA-04
CA-11
CO-04
CT-02
GA-08
GA-12
ID-01
LA-02
MI-07
MI-09
NC-08
NE-02
NE-03
NM-01
OH-02
OH-15
PA-06
PA-08
TX-23
WA-05
WA-08
WY-AL

This actually if anything is bad for Reichert as this lead comes from the fact that Pierce county has released much more of its vote vs King (dispraportionally favoring Pierce, a Reichert stronghold right now)

oh and anyone looked at WY?
Cubin is only ahead by 700 votes and the only place left to report is a strong trauner area... (its gonna be suprisingly close)

NE-03 called for the GOP by CNN.

:)

I helped make that  happen.

You know, NY State could have been a lot worse for the GOP tonight.

Walsh, Kuhl, and Reynolds all won by less than 4 percent.

Dems were close to reducing the GOP reps in NY to 3: King, McHugh, and Fossella.

Things continue to move McNerney's way in CA-11, now with a 3,100 vote lead over Pombo with almost half the vote counted.

Walberg wins in MI-07
McMorris holds on to WA-05

Both called by CNN

McNerney now over Pombo by 3,600 with 72% reporting.

Awesome!

I think Dems will defeat Pombo, Simmons, Gerlach, and Fitzpatrick.

Total of 30 seats gained.

CA-04 called for Doolittle, per CNN

I love that John Hall won! How about Melissa Hart losing.... AND that Shays held on while Johnson lost and Simmons has got a good shot at losing...

McNerney keeps gaining on Pombo.

At 94%, Gerlach has pulled ahead of Murphy by 2,000 votes in PA-8.

Cubin has an 810 vote lead, up from 700 earlier.

I doubt any of these races besides CO-04 and CA-11 are decided tonight.

Pombo is going to lose.
Musgrave is going to win.

Just my opinion...

CNN finally calls CA-11 for McNerney

CO-04 called for Musgrave per CNN

Frankly, if you would have told me two nights ago that Pryce, Gerlach, Shays and possibly Wilson would have survived and that Leach, Hart, Gutknecht and Bradley would have fallen, I would have laughed at you.

The wave hit, but it hit at some very odd points.

Btw, I predicted Gerlach would be ahead about three hours ago while looking at the margins and seeing that only Chester County was out.  Not to brag, but nailed that one.  :)

Bonilla is also headed to a runoff against old Ciro Rodriguez.  He's at 48% right now and I just don't see the numbers left in Val Verde County to make up the 4,500 vote differential he would need to reach 50%.

CNN saying the votes are still being counted in OH '02 it was Schmit by 51-49 last i heard... any news on that one?

CNN has the OH-02 race at 100% reporting with Schmidt up about 2,300 votes.  If they're still counting the votes, I'm unaware, though they haven't called the race yet.

Perhaps they mean recounting?

You can always hope that Jean gets what she deserves... then again it's even closer than in the Hacket election IIRC.

Dude, it's looking like you have Pat Murphy as your Congressman.  I couldn't be any happier!

How'd the PA legislature go?

Courtney has apparently won CT-02 by 170 votes, the slimmest margin of victory so far.

Simmons was the one I thought would have held on, but a win is a win :). Back in 1994, I believe the then Democratic congressmen, Sam Gejdenson, held the seat by 21 votes

So, not only was the CT-02 race closest in 1994, it has a good chance of being the closest of 2006

Dave

Close races:

This is what I have:

   ct 2          Dem razor thin lead
   ga 8          Dem 1% lead   
   nc 8          very slight R lead   

   nm 1        very slight R lead   
    pa 6         R appears to have won
   pa 8         D appears to have won
   wy           R appears to have won   

Did I miss any?   

CNN still has 13 undecided, though I'm not sure which ones the others are.

Can someone please list the 27 pickups?

The very competitive WA-08 still has only 31% reporting.

The uncalled races:

CT-02 (100% in, D leads very narrowly)*
PA-08 (100% in, D leads)*
PA-06 (100% in, R leads)
OH-15 (100% in, R leads)
OH-02 (100% in, R leads)
NC-08 (100% in, R leads very narrowly)
GA-12 (96% in, D leads)
GA-08 (99% in, D leads)
LA-02 (100% in, going to D v D runoff)
TX-23 (94% in, likely going to R v D runoff)
NM-01 (99% in, R leads)
WY-AL (99% in, R leads very narrowly)
WA-08 (31% in, R leads)

*Dem pickup.

Except you don't live in my district. That said, I'm willing to give the guy a chance, but I'm leaning Republican for 08 here.


Lots of incumbents falling in the house...GOP looks to hold the Senate...This seems to be mainly due to the pay raise and some rendell/casey coattails.

The Democratic House whip lost his seat to a GOP borough mayor or someone.
PA-08: Fitzpatrick has not conceeded. I'm wondering if he's waiting for absentee ballots, which may be enough to swing it his way...or a recount...which I think probably wouldn't help much.

Absentees are included in all state totals. Fitzpatrick lost, even if he hasn't conceded. He's down something like 1,500 votes, way too many for a recount. Only the "very narrowly"s could conceiveably have recounts.

If every candidate who is currently leading in the vote counts ends up winning, and assuming the GOP wins the TX-23 runoff, the new House would be an exact mirror image of the old one--Dem 232, GOP 203.

I suspect Darcy Burner will pull through in WA-08, though. It's irritating that they're being so slow there.

Any update on the 11 House seats that still haven't been called? Some of them have 100 percent of the precincts reporting, so I assume they are waiting on absentee or provisional ballots? Any possible recounts?

Most of them could go either way.  Though I expect few changes just because of the numbers involved.

In WA-08, we won't know for about 2 weeks (WA's strange absentee ballot system), but as Alcon pointed out to me last evening, if Weichert leads going into absentee balloting, he'll win, because those ballot are always more GOP than the other ballots.  If he's down by a couple, we'll just have to wait.

GA-08 and PA-06 have been called for the Dems and GOP, respectively.

Ah, yes, I see that.

So that leaves the following undecided:

CT-02
GA-12
NC-08
NM-01
OH-2
OH-15
PA-08
WA-08
WY-AL

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Cubin probably ends up a few hundred votes ahead in WY-AL and probably stays there.  NC-08 and CT-02 will come down to recount, but probably stay where they are.

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

I meant to ask you this:  So how did Gerlach survive in your opinion?  When the cycle began a couple of years, he was considered by most experts to be the Republican House incumbent most in danger of losing.  Now, he's one of the few that survived.  What's your explanation?

So LA-02 and TX-23 are going to runoffs, where it looks like Bonilla will win and LA-02 will at least be Democratic.

I think Reichert will survive in WA-08, and the Dems will in GA-12.

OH-02 and OH-15 should stay GOP, I would think. Is there going to be a recount there or what? I think Pryce and Schmidt won more easily than some other contested races out there.

Leaving

CT-02
NC-08
NM-01
PA-08
WY-AL

Where Dems look to take 3 and the GOP the other two. By my count that should be a net Dem gain of 31 seats.

I personally think it'll fall along the 3 GOP, 2 Dem lines the results show now, but this is a minor quibble.  30 as a benchmark seems about right.

Oops I got my numbers mixed up. Dems take PA-08 and CT-02, the GOP the other three.

I don't live in PA-06 (I live in PA 08 obviously given my emotional attachment to its race)...

that said...I think as you've said before the problem in PA wasn't really anti-republican or anti-specific candidate reaction...rather it was an anti Bush reaction...Now a good deal of Gerlach's district sits in Chester County...which is the one Philadelphia collar county to stay Republican at the presidential level...so its got a republican tinge to it even when a conservative runs (I suspect that the philly burbs would likely lean in favor of a guliani/mccain type over anyone, and may be inplay regardless if the dem isn't a bill clinton type)....so he's got a natural advantage.


As I said before, while Weldon went down due to his own incompetence (the FBI investigation also took down some gop chairmen in delaware county)...the other Republican reps were pretty popular and did pretty well on local issues and representing their districts...Iraq sunk Fitzpatrick in a district that is slowly losing its Republican stranglehold...perhaps in a more republican district...Fitz, like Gerlach would have survived.

When the GOP drew this district up...it was designed to be pretty republican, as it has chester and I think some fairly republican parts of Montco (which I imagine they wanted back into district 13 to help the Melissa Browns of the world)...Perhaps the stronger republican nature of the district off set, just enough, the general anti bush mood going on...

Lois Murphy is a loser, she lost in 2004 (its not like she's some defeated incumbent, like a baron hill) coming back to win her seat...

So i'm thinking 2 major things...(Summary because I babble)

1) Gerlach underperformed previously (I can't quite remember how long he's been in the 6th) The 6th was designed in the GOP gerrymander to be pretty republican, unlike the 8th which took on more democratic wards to help the 13th elect a Republican and was thought to be fine because Jim Greenwood was and is a god. Those democratic wards seem to have helped Murphy big time.

2) Lois Murphy likely sucks as a candidate and previously benefited from a presidential election at the top of the ticket. While the dems did tremendously well at the top of the ticket this time, Lois Murphy was not a new exciting candidate.  Had this been her first time running, or had the dems nominated someone else...perhaps they could have capitalized on the anti-bush wave.


Feel free to ask questions if you're confused.

Yes, the local NM officials have a rather dubious reputation for crap like that ::) but I am amazed they couldn't invent a thousand or so more imaginary or dead voters this time around :P

Thanks for the explanation, bullmoose.  If he underperformed, it makes a lot of sense to me, actually.  Repeat opponents sometimes don't sit well either.


I'm with you, though if they can't find it, maybe they either didn't care or maybe they'd look too odd. (though that hasn't stopped them before)

Though, if Wilson does win, I'm going to have to crown her the queen of the swing-district battlers.  It's been quite a long while since I've seen someone run a campaign the way she did, winning a race she shouldn't have won in just a godawful environment.  I know she's had some tough races before, but this one was easily the toughest ever, imo.  Her opponent helped, certainly, that one commercial on Madrid's debate performance was, imo, the best ad of the campaign nationally and one of the better Congressional ads I've ever seen from an effectiveness standpoint.

If she ever ran for higher office, I'd hate to have to run against her.

Or, given how badly Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera f***ed up yet another election, maybe they screwed up their attempt to cheat. ;D

Yes, Wilson fought hard for this seat and Madrid sure helped her out. :D The local Dem hierarchs must be having chest pains right about now ;) something I can well live with. :) I hope that ad is saved on YouTube or something ;D

Yes, just wait until the national mood swings the right way and she'll pull the trigger on whatever party hack gets vomited forth from Northern New Mexico. ;)

*STILL happy over the Land Commissioner race*

NM-01:
Wilson 102,343
Madrid 100,979

margin = +1,364

This race has damn near given me a heart attack for the past day. :) However, Wilson has been holding firm all of today.

I would dearly love to know exactly where is left to be counted...

I saved the ad on my computer for posterity's sake.

Bless You, My Child. ;)

Burner, baby!

"100% of precincts in King County reporting, Darcy Burner is up by about a thousand votes over Rep. Reichert (R) out in WA-8.

(ed.note: Thanks to TPM Reader GT for the tip.)"

New total:

NM-01
Wilson 102,456
Madrid 101,153

margin = +1,303 (-63 votes)

Thought I'd post this here:

()

The education and income numbers are the most interesting.

Whoa! I thought this race was over already I didnt even know there was a recount going on....

Did Burner really win?!?! I just went to CNN's website and it say that only 59% of precincts have reported.

With WA's absentee ballot system, we're very far off from knowing the winner of the race.

I've also checked the WA SOS website and there's been no change since yesterday.

New total:  (only about 4,000 provisionals are left outstanding)

NM-01
Wilson 104,575
Madrid 102,968

margin = +1,607 (+304 votes)

Wilson's camp has declared victory, though the Madrid camp is saying it's not over yet.  Half of the provisions are usually disqualified historically.

An interesting fact is that about 4,300-5,600 people voted in the Senate and Governor's races, but didn't vote in the House race.  Total, about 39,000 voters voted for Democrats in the Senate and Governor's race and then did not vote for Madrid in the Congressional race.

What percentage of the white evangelical/born-again Christian vote do the Democrats usually get, if you know?  29% seems oddly high, given that I can think of... exactly zero high-profile people in that group who would even think about complimenting the Democrats, much less voting for them.

Update on NM-1 (still counting):

Wilson 104,863
Madrid 103,376

margin +1487 (as you can see from Sam's previous posts this is less than Wilson's max but higher than her min vote margins).

Not many votes left to count at this point, but due to them being provisional and absentee in-lieu ballots they will take a while to finish - they are saying Friday of this week.

And I'd really like an answer to Gabu's question. :)

I just read on Politics 1 there are about 3700 provisional ballots left to be counted. If that is true I don't see how Patsy Madrid can overtake Heather Wilson. What is the lawsuit that Madrid has filed all about?

According to The Hotline, Simmons has gained 105 votes in early recounts, narrowing the margin to 60 votes.  There are many more towns to recount, according to this report.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/11/ct_02_recount_s.html

Yes, the provisional ballots are highly unlikely to change the lead.

And it's the usual "The Mean Republicans Suppressed Our Voters!!!!!" lawsuit. Which, given that the Democrats controlled ALL the government agencies that ran the election AND that the election was conducted with paper ballots AND that the Republicans actually have a better case for disenfranchisement due to the inexcusable failure to provide sufficient paper ballots to two precincts with high numbers of Republican voters (just coincidence, I'm sure :P ) is pretty damned hypocritical of them. NM is so utterly controlled by the NM Dems that the idea that the Republicans have the power to influence anything is absurd. :P

Oh. That's what I thought. Okay. Thanks! :)

Business as usual here. :) And you're welcome.

Seriously, the Republicans couldn't cheat in NM-1 if they tried...they haven't the power, organization, party unity, connection with reality, etc...

Really, when a Democratic candidate in NM files a lawsuit, it means the Republican has won.  Simple enough.

You have to hand it to Heather Wilson, assuming she has actually won.  She just about held on in her Democratic-leaning district, in a hugely Democratic year, withstanding the coat-tails of Richardson's and Bingaman's landslide victories.  I'm impressed.

Pretty much. :) If the dominant-party machine can't carry you to victory, give it up. ;)

From Sam's list, this was the third-biggest shocker of the night (after Gerlach surviving* and Bradley losing). She was simply the better candidate for the job. I will now make a tentative prediction that she wins the 2008 and 2010 races (assuming Domenici doesn't retire in 2008, which he shouldn't) because she can't possibly face a harsher year than this.

*Did Gerlach make a demonic pact whereby he will always get 51% of his district's votes? Wow...

Probably had to do with the "brain freeze" ad (best ad of the 2006 campaign, other than the YouTube macaca) more than anything else (and Madrid's general incompetance).  Still, she won the race fair and square.

You can see why Madrid's camp tried desperately to dodge every debate possible...they only agreed to one of them, and look what happened...

Do you have a link to this "brain freeze" ad?  I wouldn't mind seeing it.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ay_KDtu2DU0

Thanks Sam.

Holy crap, that was a damn good ad.  Madrid really got owned in it, and rightly so.

Wow.  That's one of those ads that just makes itself.

uh, Jimmy Carter?

It's usually a bit lower than that number. Either Carter-types, peace/social justice activists/etc., or really poor/blue collar people.

Courtneys lead is cut from 166 votes to 66 votes after an official added an extra 100 votes to Courtney's tally. 2/3 of the communities have recounted so far.

The Christian Left. It's a smaller movement than the Christian Right, certainly, but it exists. They're the "good Christians".

Of course, some very impoverished evangelicals may vote Democrat as well, especially if they are also in unions.

According to the AP, Reichert has been declared the winner in the WA-08 race.

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/politics/story/3418488p-12554564c.html

He leads by roughly 4,727 votes, with a certain amount of absentee ballots left from King and Pierce counties undoubtedly.

Darcy Burner is not conceding as of this moment.

Also, from what I hear, Courtney gained about 40 votes from a miscounting in Lyme, CT, so the lead is up to 107 votes, with about 40% of the townships reporting.

JD Hayworth has conceded.

In other news, with 61 out of 65 towns reporting, Joe Courtney leads Rob Simmons by 91 votes.  The count must be done by this evening.

I finally saw the TV ad for myself...

...shades of Phil Maloof. :o

Another victory of norteno candidate selection! ::)

A couple of more things to add here as of today:

1.  In OH-02, Jean Schmidt (R) has clinched re-election with a 3,200-vote lead, with less than that amount of votes still outstanding.  Wulsin has not conceded yet, but trust me, it's over.  A lot of times in these close races, the losing candidates concede defeat long after they've actually lost, mainly because I think it takes them time to accept that fact.

2.  Gov. Rick Perry announced the date for the runoff in TX-23 as being Tuesday, December 12, roughly under three weeks from now.

Along with LA-02, which is heading to runoff between two Democrats, this leaves three House races still outstanding:

FL-13:  In which Christine Jennings is headed to court claiming that the electronic voting machines did not count votes for her.

NC-08:  Where Robin Hayes leads by 339 votes and Larry Kissell has requested a recount.  I highly doubt will change this result, but a recount in this close of a race is entirely fair.

OH-15:  Where Deborah Pryce leads by roughly 3,000 votes and there's still, I think, about 15-20,000 absentees and provisionals left to count.  We should probably have the final numbers by this weekend.  I doubt this switches either, but it's only fair to wait.

That's about it...

To do some last-minute updating....

Larry Kissell has "unofficially" conceded to Robin Hayes, presumably unless he picks up another 8-10 votes tomorrow, which would be what is necessary to force a hand recount.

http://www.wwaytv3.com/Global/story.asp?S=5747211&nav=menu70_2

In OH-15, a automatic recount is still going on, but with Pryce leading by 1,055 votes, the chances the race switches are close to nil probably.

That would leave FL-13 as the last "open" race, and I think that one, with all the court action, is probably going into next year.

big :(:(:(:(:(:(:(:( on Kilroy.  Hope she runs again

Big :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( that Foley-phile Pryce is almost certain to hold on

Dave

Don't worry too much guys. Her district is pretty much flying left, and the dismal turnout in Franklin County (mostly Columbus which voted for Kilroy) this year saved Pryce. Turnout in Franklin county was 7% lower than turnout statewide. 2008 is a Presidential year so Pryce cannot count on low turnout to save her ass again. John Kerry beat George Bush in Franklin County by over 41,000 votes in '04, Kilroy only beat Pryce by 7,000. A similar turnout like '04 will doom Pryce if she has a strong challenger again. If Kilroy were to run again, she would win - and that's coming from someone who almost never makes predictions, let alone two years out.

Kilroy won't have Strickland/Blackwell coattails again and Foley will be well out of voters' minds in 2008.

If that was the case she would have lost. Unless Columbus used to be like the north Atlanta suburbs.

That's assuming she has Strickland/Brown coattails this time, which turnout numbers suggest she did not. Pryce will also be forced to vote on numerous bills on the Democratic agenda for the next two years, and she will actually have to prove her so-called "moderate" status. Any whiff of an extreme right-wing voting record in this district and she is gone.

That's some shady logic buddy. She won be a much slimmer margin than she has ever won before even with with weaker turnout in Kilroy's base of support - that alone suggest the district is moving left, as well as the Presidential vote share in the district for the past few cycles. The fact that she still eeked out a win does not mean the district is not moving left.

How so?

You should note that I'm not objecting to the idea that the Columbus area has, over the past decade or so, swung towards the Democrats.

B/c you said that if it was true the district was moving left then Pryce would have lost. That's not necessarily true. It's much more likely the demographics just haven't caught up with her yet, and like I said before a Presidential-level voter-turnout in '08 will likely do the trick. And let's not forget that she massively outpsent Kilroy in this race.

No I didn't. I objected to "pretty much flying to the left", something which sounds to me a lot different to "moving left".

Whatever. That dosen't make logical sense either, for the exact same reasons.

Advice to Deano963- don't take on Al about things like this unless you are prepared to lose.