Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: raggage on June 29, 2004, 11:01:31 PM



Title: Control of the House
Post by: raggage on June 29, 2004, 11:01:31 PM
Who will end up in control of the house in '04..... I know there are alot of threads on possible seats changing party but does anyone think that the Dems could win... I think they will net gain 2 seats, maybe 3, but not enough so, with a tear in my eye, i've gotta say republican.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 29, 2004, 11:03:03 PM
House stays Republicans and the GOP will gain seats, too.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: opebo on June 29, 2004, 11:33:02 PM
This one is a bit easier to predict.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 30, 2004, 03:26:25 AM
The Texas Gerrymander was supposed to act as a kind of electoral insurance policy... problem is most of the lame duck incumbents are currently leading in their districts...

Overall a lot of incumbents are in for tough races this and their are a good number of open seats...

The GOP should hang on, but don't bet the farm on it.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: minionofmidas on June 30, 2004, 06:54:29 AM
I miss "Third Party in Control"! :)


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: © tweed on June 30, 2004, 04:20:08 PM
GOP


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: AuH2O on June 30, 2004, 05:03:35 PM
Easy GOP hold, few seat gain probably. Bush coattails in Texas and other GOP strongholds...


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: raggage on June 30, 2004, 10:20:40 PM
Easy GOP hold, few seat gain probably. Bush coattails in Texas and other GOP strongholds...

Damned redistricting.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: © tweed on July 01, 2004, 04:40:25 PM
Easy GOP hold, few seat gain probably. Bush coattails in Texas and other GOP strongholds...

Damned redistricting.

Damned Tom DeLay!


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: classical liberal on July 01, 2004, 09:01:34 PM
The GOP's gains in TX (3-6 seats) will be cancelled out by Dem gains in NY WA and CO (1 or 2 each).  The GOP has maxed out their control and by maxing out our nationa's credit cards have ed their (I disown them) position in the House in terms of gains in the fiscaly conservative but socially moderate to liberal North and West.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on July 02, 2004, 01:50:29 AM
Kind of hard for the Democrats to win back the House when there was an ultra-partisan Texas gerrymander which was to ensure that the "House remain Republican no matter what the national mood".

"No matter what the national mood"?

Why bother even having an election? Grrrrrrrrrr......


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: zorkpolitics on July 02, 2004, 08:16:47 PM
I expect  little change among incumbents, but the Republicans will gain maybe 3 seats in TX, while losing several open seats, notably in NY, KY, WA, CO.  For a net Democratic gain, but not enough to win control


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: Nym90 on July 03, 2004, 10:09:34 AM
My prediction is that the Dems will pick up 5 seats...the House will be close, but GOP hangs on to control.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: raggage on July 04, 2004, 04:02:00 AM
I was just thinking, surely the Democrats could 'gerrymander' in heavily democratic states like California and New York and re-district to kick out republicans like how the reverse has happened in Texas.

Perhaps its the Republican governors stopping it.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: ijohn57s on July 11, 2004, 03:22:23 PM
The GOP picks up 6 or 7 seats.


Title: Re:Control of the House
Post by: zorkpolitics on July 14, 2004, 10:43:38 PM
The current open seats (except TX) favor the Democrats in that more are in districts Gore won than in districts Bush won
Probably a net 3-5 for the Democrats
I don't expect more than a net 1-2 gain for the Democrats among incumbents
But TX will give the Republicans a net 3, and possibly up to 5
So Republicans should retain control but with a reduced majority