Talk Elections

On the DC Political Report website, for state polling, it shows a poll conducted June 23 and 24 that showed the race at 43% each.

I don't have a membership there, so I can't see who did it or any of the information about the poll.  Does anyone know what poll this is?  

It isn't under the polls section on this site or at Real Clear Politics either.

I've seen that poll too...its by Moore Information, but I don't have a link.

http://www.moore-info.com/WashingtonStateVotersthe2004PresidentialRace.htm (http://www.moore-info.com/WashingtonStateVotersthe2004PresidentialRace.htm)

Here you go.

With the very dramatic exception of a Survey USA with Kerry + 10 in Michigan, the state polling seems to suggest a very modest shift towards Mr. Bush of late.

With the exception of the Moore poll, the polling in Washington Sate has veen very consistent with Mason-Dixon showing Kerry +4, while a Public Opinion Strategies polls showed Kerry + 6.5% at the other end

There were a bunch of other polls between the +4 and + 6.5 range.

Moore has strong ties to the GOP, which may or may not invalidate this poll.

If you agree that their has been a modest shift of a point or three towards Bush, a Kerrry +1 is sane, if you don't think there has been a shift, the Kerry +1 is just a bit  low compared to the others, but still very easily explained by a +/- 4.5% Margin of error.  Not crazy, just a tad low for kerry compared to the rest.

This is a different poll...note the date is June 11.

Here what the Hotline published about the June 24th poll: (sorry for the lousy spacing)

  A Moore Information (R) poll conducted 6/23-24; surveyed 500 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4.0% (release, 6/30).

General Election Matchup
                                       Non-Stle  Kitsap/Pierce/  Other
         All  GOP Dem Ind Seattle King Co.  Snohomish Co.   West   East
Bush    43 87  6  35      9      42        45          45    56
Kerry    43   4  85  32    77      44         36           44     32
Nader    4   3    4    5      5       4           4            2      4
Undec. 10   6    5  28      9      10         15            9      8

Yes, you are correct - That poll from JUne 23rd is on the George Nethercutt Website, they have only posted the senate numbers however.

I am now moving Washington to tossup.

Partisan ID in that poll looks like it was "about" :

Dem= 40%
GOP = 37%
IND = 23%

Washington state (like texas) does not register by party ID so there are no "official" numbers to compare to.

A PEW survey in November 2003 actually found the GOP had a 1% party self identification advantage in Washington State, so a +3 Dem lead seems "sane" but then again using one poll to validate another poll is a very very risky business.

Ive been saying all along that Washington will be a darkhorse state this year.  Im hoping it will go to Bush, but I really think it all depends on the governors race.  I would like to see a new Rossi/Gregoire poll to see how things are going.  

I've been looking at recent Wisconsin polls and I think it is safe to call Wisconsin Lean Bush instead of Tossup.

Kerry only leading 2% in King County. Gore beat Bush by nearly 30% there in 2000. Hmm... Interesting.

I wouldn't be too surprised if Rossi won, unlike the past couple idiots the Republicans have picked this guy actually has a chance of winning. But unless the Democrats smoke some crack and pick Sims as their candidate, they probably have a better chance of winning.

Man, I'm an optimistic Republican, but Kerry only up by 2% in Kings County...NO WAY. I gotta believe Washington will go Kerry unless Nader polls at least 4%.

The poll shows that Kerry is only up 2 in King County excluding Seattle.  Seattle's numbers are separate, and if included would show Kerry winning countywide by a large margin.

A Republican!!!!!!

OR will go GOP before WA.

What are Nadar's chances of getting on the ballot in these states?

I know he's in trouble in Oregon, I don't know about Washington.

I had not realized that they separated Seattle from suburban King County. It is a bit more believable. East King County leans republican and South King County leans democrat, so it should even out... maybe, I don't know.

Then again, out of at least a dozen or so legislative districts in King County, Bush only won ONE. This district includes middle-upper class suburbs and rural areas. And he only won it by 100 votes. This is also where Republican candidate for governor Dino Rossi is from. He was state senator.

Dino's site annoys me. Its all about his little girl and puppies. *vomit*

One time he proudly posted a poll showing him losing to Christine Gregoire by 30%. The Seattle Times had an article about what an idiot he was. The Republicans spent like a year looking for a candidate, getting constalty rejected, and they ended up with Rossi.

Sadly hes about a million times better than the last couple of republican candidates. Republicans have lost by like 20% the past two elections.

That 9% Republican lead for Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap looks odd.
They went for Gore by 8,0%, 7,4% and 3,8% respectively last time.