Talk Elections

Here are my generic predictions for the 2008 election.  Each of these apply to the Democratic and Republican nomination races *and* to the general election.

Predictions:

There will be many commentators (both on this board, and in the media at large) who will read *way* too much into short term trends (usually derived from the polls), assuming that those trends will continue uninterrupted until the election "unless something unexpected happens".  It will not occur to the commentators that every election includes numerous unexpected things happening.

Many commentators will predict that various candidates are sure to win and that other candidates are as good as done *well* before it makes any sense to do so.  It will not occur to the commentator that the leading candidate is simply *favored* to win, and is not a sure thing.  When critics point out past elections in which the outcome ended up being much different from what people were initially predicting, the commentator will argue that "this election is different" for one reason or another, and that this is one election in which it does make sense to make such bold predictions well in advance.  Alternatively, the commentator will argue that while others incorrectly predicted those previous elections, the commentator in question is much better at predicting these things than most other people.

The actual election results will turn out much differently from what many of these commentators were predicting early on.  Once this happens, the commentators will argue that the only reason for the surprising election results is that there was some unexpected event that no one could have predicted.  Again, it will not occur to the commentators that every election campaign has unexpected events, and that they should have been more cautious with their initial predictions, and included more caveats.

A few months after the election, the commentators will pretend that they never made those incorrect election predictions.  In fact, they'll convince themselves that everyone could see the final outcome of the election coming from miles away.  They will argue that the actual election outcome was the only one that ever could have happened given the particular candidates who were in the race, and there was no chance involved whatsoever.

Pretty bold predictions, these. ;D

Thanks.  :)

Once you've followed a few presidential elections, all of this becomes common sense, but people seem to fall into these same traps again and again.

My bold prediction:  Republicans keep the White House in 2008

If that happens, the democratic party will basically collapse. I mean, if they cannot win now, what is their purpose?

To perpetually control Congress.

I guess we should change our name to the Congress Party then. Lol.

Then again, that could be part of the right's permanent GOP strategy....because if there is a large enough DEM majority in the senate, Roe will never be overturned because the president will always have to settle on Souters, Kennedys and O'Connors to fill in vacancies left by Stevens and Ginsburg. With roe still around, the GOP zombies will be out in force. Maybe when there is an ammorous crack pot at the head of elections in FL,CO,OH or whatever GOP "stolen" state that used to cost the dems like 4 elections in a Row is able to see fundy church vans closing, they can have "mechanical difficulties"...I would be very angry if that were to happen, but alas, it appears that since 2000, they best way to effect the direction of the country is through voter fraud.

You Dems would win far more presidential elections if you'd simply stop nominating idiotic candidates.

That's a good point...but in terms of the issues, we are never going to get past 49% if the only thing that is the difference between us in the GOP is W and Iraq and either taxes, medicaid OR abortion and Gays.

We can't just abandon our issues, you know....and in this election, maybe the GOP's upper party machine will finally break down. The GOP national machine seems damaged.

If they do win, it would be 7th in the last 10 or the 6th in the last 8.  My guess is that if they become the only executive party, we will probably have the GOP in power until 2020, when something really horrible happens. It worked when we were never getting elected before.

Yes. Thank you for your standard comment.

....actually, you might want to abandon your stance on higher taxes, though.  You'll be quite surprised how many more moderates, independents, and even Republicans would come on to your side if it wasn't for your ridiculous tax-and-spend and failed fiscal policies advocated by Hillary, Edwards, and Obama.   We tried that before, and it doesn't work.  You can still be a liberal on social issues and foreign policy

Which is just another good reason to choose centrist, pragmatic governrors (with a dash charisma, of course) rather than ideological (and largely worthless windbags) Democratic senators as your candidates.

If you manage to lose 2008 (which is likely, barring a MAJOR catastrophic meltdown on the Republican side), you might want to check out MD gov Martin O'Malley or Ed Rendell for 2012!  Good luck!

Lowering taxes too much are what got us into the economic mess we're in now.  As can be proven by the fact that we had a stronger econ under Clinton, a tax and spend democrat than Bush, a tax break republican.

But let's be frank... the only reason to make this sort of prediction is that a wartime environment (not necessarily the war) does give an edge to Republicans. Minus the scandals, not too many people really miss the Clinton '90s.

I personally give Clinton the advantage, but I will almost certainly be voting Republican (definitely if it's Giuliani or McCain) and the main reason remains the (larger) war.

...and its not like taxes will be that much higher for anyone except the truly rich. One expirement would be if there was a temporary change in heart before and after pay days.

How 'bout that... they all came true!

Haha, I remember this troll. For some reason he hasn't logged in recently...

It's already happening all over again with the 2012 election.  People in the 2012 forum are already making blanket statements such as "so and so would win all the McCain states except Arizona and Missouri" or some such thing.  Guys, you can't predict exactly which states will go which way in an election years in advance.  How many people here, if you had asked them back in November 2004, would have guessed that Obama was going to win 365 electoral votes against McCain in 2008?  How many would have predicted that the Democratic candidate was going to win North Carolina while losing Missouri?