Talk Elections

Is Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey in trouble in 08, I mean he has medicore approval ratings and is getting old. I'm most likely getting my hopes up about him being defeated as New Jersey constently disappoints me.

There is absolutely no chance Republicans can win a statewide election in New Jersey in a Presidential Election Year.

Welcome to the forum.

I disagree though on NJ. Guiliani is in good position to win NJ, if he is up against Clinton in '08. That could drive enough votes to elect a Republican like Tom Kean Jr. Lautenberg is too old and seems to be out of touch with NJ to win if Guiliani is running for Preisdent in '08.

I agree that Giuliani does have a good shot at winning New Jersey, should he win the GOP nomination (yes, I'm still waiting for some guy to fill that void on the GOP 2008 bench) but my money will be on the Democrats retaining the Senate seat despite the fact that Lautenberg has never topped 54% in any of his four Senate races and has poor approval ratings

Indeed, no Republican has won election to the Senate since Clifford P. Case was elected to his fourth term in 1972

Furthermore, the Class 1 seat (for which Lautenberg served three consecutive terms from 1983 to 2001) has been continuously Democratic since 1959, with the exception of a brief period in 1982 when Nicholas F. Brady served as an interim appointment; while the Class 2 (Lautenberg's since 2003) seat has been continuously Democratic since Bill Bradley was elected in 1978

My advice to Republicans is: "Don't build your hopes up" ;)

Dave

Bush won NJ in 1988 with 56% and that didn't stop Lautenberg from getting 54% against a top-tier opponent.

If a New Jersey Democrat was going to lose his senate seat, it would have been Bob Menendez. I see no valid reason as to why New Jersey would give Lautenberg the boot.

No.  New Jersey voters never hold New Jersey politicians accountable for anything.

I have lost all hope in my state.  We are among the most liberal, but are #1 as the most partisan state.  I doubt any Democrat would fall below 45% even if they ate live children and promised a Holocaust in Newark.

in a normal state he would be in trouble.

nj loves electing horrible people.

The problem is that New Jersey has exhusted its bench of candidates by losing consecutive elections. They have no one to put up now. The candidates that they would have to put up might be old news. Look how many times Forrester has been running. The New Jersey republicans need a new bench of candidates and maybe 2009 may be the year, but this year probably not .

All politicians get low approval ratings in NJ, it doesn't mean they're in danger of losing their next election.

I'm not sure that Lautenberg will run again, but if he does he will win.

Not always.  What about Christie Whitman?  Well, I guess DWDL would want to expel her from the party, considering her positions on the issues.

And for all the crap you guys give Lautenberg, he has been solid on delivering for his state.  I particularly like the work he has done on transportation and expanding NJ Transit.  He's also a strong supporter of Amtrak, which is always a plus in my book.

Diane Allen could theoretically at least give Lautenberg some competition. Other than her, though, the bench is nonexistant. It may be possible to convince some of the congressmen now in the minority to run (especially the vulnerable Mike Ferguson), but I don't see any of them unseating Lautenberg.

Virginian87 is correct. Lautenberg has been a good senator. He is a leader on transportation issues and has taken the chemical security debate and put it in the forefront. NJs chemical plant security laws are tougher then the federal laws, and now a new bill would set federal laws applicable and make NJs defunct despite the fact ares are tougher. Lautenberg is fighting to change that.

Yes, yes you are.

Whitman was last elected in 1997, TEN years ago.  The last time NJ elected a non-incumbent Republican over a Democrat is 1993.  That is an impressive streak

NJ is an interesting state and a good example of extreme polarization. You got the Camden/Newark-esque urban areas that will vote virtually 100% Democratic and are essentially unswingable, then you have those giant uber-affluent semi-rural areas that are the most partisan GOP type of place that exists and just vote for whoever has the R next to their name. The rest of the state consists mostly of communities of New York transplants and liberal yuppies, just not the type of swingable areas. The Democrats never win NJ by much, but they always win it.

Don't put too much stock in low approval ratings in NJ. Jerseyites don't like anybody; especially politicians.

People from New Jersey hate their politicians and then keep re-electing them.  That's just the way it goes in Jersey.

I cannot say this enough: New Jerseyans do not deserve good government, because they consistently vote against it.

No one especially likes cranky ol' Frank, but without a strong candidate like Bill Baroni, the octagenarian has more reason to fear the grim reaper than the New Jersey GOP.

I wish all states voted like NJ. Refusing to vote for Republicans under any circumstances whatsoever is always a good thing.

I'll admit the only place Bob Menendez belongs in is federal prison yet I would've voted for him in a heartbeat last November with no qualms whatsoever. Well actually I would have qualms, but over his votes on flag burning and torture, not his corruption. And frankly, I'd rather have a criminal than someone even dumber than Jim Bunning who would be lucky to be flipping burgers if it wasn't for his father, that of course being an accurate description of that waste of life Kean, Jr. I hope he runs against Corzine so I can watch him get his ass kicked again. :)

Yes, which is why half of New Jersey's urban politicians are currently under indictment.  Torricelli '08!


Despite what you think, Tom Kean Jr. is a thoughtful, intelligent candidate who ran the dumbest, most ridiculous campaign possible, because he listened to too many consultants whose only experience was losing other races in New Jersey for Republicans.

Agreed with what you said Moderate, However the GOP can win in New Jersey with strong canidates in good years for Republicans, Had last year been a Republican year, Senator Bob Menendez would have become former Senator Bob Menendez I can assure you of that. 

No Republican has won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1994.

Lautenberg - Dem in NJ - Running in a Presidential election year?

Note to every Republican - Give up with every statewide race in this state for a very long time. Thanks.


I always knew that Christie Whitman's second term was make believe.

Hmmmm, forgot about that. She did however barely win and got less than 50%, so one can accurately say that no Republican has ever gotten over 50% or won by more than 1.5 points statewide in New Jersey since 1993.

...except that wasn't the point...

Point is the Republicans in NJ are too weak to beat Lautenberg.

Well, yes, that is very true. I won't waste a single second getting my hopes up about this seat. The only candidate that really ever stood a chance at possibly beating him won't be running.

Bill Baroni is currently running for the State Senate with alot of union labor behind him. Because he is running for the State Senate, it is very unlikely hell run for U.S. Senate.

I am going to go out on a limb here and guess one of you is much more qualified to "assure" the other one about New Jersey voting than vice versa.

And he is the strong candidate I was referring to.

I for one am glad Baroni is not running. He definitely would be one of the stronger GOP candidates. All along though I thought that he was waiting to run for Governor. The State Senate seat just brings more name rec.

Honestly, I never thought Baroni would run for the US Senate in 2008 in the first place, but given the current state of that 14th District State Senate race, it is unlikely he'll have to campaign at all to win that seat.  Democrats in the district are rolling over, with Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein opting out of a bid because she just can't beat him.

Of course, because Bill Baroni is Bill Baroni, he'll be campaigning for the seat like he's 20 points behind.  He's already got an incredible slate of unions backing him already.

I know Wally Edge says that a run for State Senate puts Baroni out of the running for US Senate, but I honestly fail to see how a bid for State Senate will be any different for him than a bid for State Assembly.

In this race it wont be much different, especially with Linda Greenstein backing out and opting to run for reelect to the Assembly. Odds are the Democrats wont put up anyone competitive against Baroni. Like I said before I still think he wants to be Governor. Lets see how much he wins by, and then we can speculate as to a possible run in 2009 against Corzine, or as a Lt. Governor candidate in 2009.

Chris Christie and Baroni were the only the ones with a shot

Sen Lautenberg is fifth on the vulnerable list of Dem next to Landrieu, Johnson, Baucus, and Harkin. I think he is safe for now.