Talk Elections

I'd bet it's Jacksonville. Anyone think it's anything else?

I'm sure Kerry won Houston and Dallas proper, even if fairly narrowly.

We've had this topic before...

1. New York City - confirmed Kerry
2. Los Angeles - confirmed Kerry
3. Chicago - confirmed Kerry
4. Houston - likely Kerry
5. Philadelphia - confirmed Kerry
6. Phoenix - likely Kerry
7. San Diego - confirmed Kerry
8. San Antonio - likely Kerry
9. Dallas - very likely Kerry
10. San Jose - confirmed Kerry
11. Detroit - confirmed Kerry
12. Indianapolis - obviously Kerry
13. Jacksonville - obviously Bush

I'd say Jacksonville, although I can't confirm Houston, Phoenix, San Antonio or Dallas.

As for the rest of the top 50, these ones either or obvious or are confirmed. Can anyone else confirm the ones I considered 'lean' or 'likely'?

San Francisco, CA - obviously Kerry
Columbus, OH - lean Kerry
Austin, TX - lean Kerry
Memphis, TN - lean Kerry
Baltimore, MD - obviously Kerry
Fort Worth, TX - lean Bush
Charlotte, NC - not sure
El Paso, TX - lean Kerry
Milwaukee, WI - likely Kerry
Seattle, WA - confirmed Kerry
Boston, MA - confirmed Kerry
Denver, CO - obviously Kerry
Louisville/Jefferson County (balance), KY - obviously Kerry
Washington, DC - obviously Kerry
Nashville-Davidson (balance),TN - obviously Kerry
Las Vegas, NV - lean Kerry
Portland, OR - likely Kerry
Oklahoma City, OK - lean Bush
Tucson, AZ - not sure
Albuquerque, NM - lean Kerry
Long Beach, CA - likely Kerry
Atlanta, GA - likely Kerry
New Orleans, LA - likely Kerry
Cleveland, OH - confirmed Kerry
Fresno, CA - not sure
Sacramento, CA - lean Kerry
Kansas City, MO - lean Kerry
Virginia Beach, VA - obviously Bush
Mesa, AZ - not sure
Omaha, NE - not sure
Oakland, CA - confirmed Kerry
Tulsa, OK - lean Bush
Miami, FL - not sure
Honolulu CDP, HI - likely Kerry
Minneapolis, MN - likely Kerry
Colorado Springs, CO - lean Bush
Arlington, TX - not sure

Jacksonville has some definitely non urban areas in the city limits.

All I can confirm Kerry, nclib, except:

Fort Worth, TX - Bush, I imagine
Louisville/Jefferson County (balance), KY - obviously Kerry
Oklahoma City, OK - obviously Bush
Fresno, CA - confirmed Bush
Virginia Beah, VA - confirmed Bush
Mesa, AZ - confirmed Bush (and rather strongly so)
Omaha, NE - not sure...I think it was Bush
Tulsa, OK - reasonably sure it's Bush
Colorado Springs, CO - confirmed Bush
Arlington, TX - nearly certain Bush

That was not inluding the top 13, btw.  I think San Antonio probably voted Bush too.

Phoenix's precinct results are really, really hard to unravel, but I think Phoenix proper probably voted Kerry.

Most of Jacksonville is suburbs, not city. ;)

I can assure you that Kerry won Austin. Quite solidly.

Tehran

What about Tampa?

There is no way Tampa proper voted for Bush. The 11th district (Jim Davis' old seat) is mostly based around the city and voted 58% for Kerry.

Solidly Kerry.

My records indicate 57%-43%.

Alcon, how solidly was Miami for Kerry? Was it less Democratic than the county? I wasn't sure of the results due to the high Cuban population.

Miami-Dade doesn't have precinct-to-municipality information in any form I can find, but I emailed them.  I'll tell you when I get a response.  :)

San Antonio is very close.  I would have to do precinct-by precinct analysis of the unincorporated rural-exurban parts of Bexar County to hazard a guess.

Houston went Kerry by about 60-40.  Dallas went by about as much.

Fort Worth went for Bush.

Austin clearly went for Kerry and so did El Paso.

Of course, the suburbs are the problem.  :P

I'm not sure but from what I know Miami-Dade went for Kerry by a much less higher margin then it went for Gore back in 2000.

Not really.  It was actually a nearly identical margin each time, with Bush only slightly gaining - well below national average.

Miami-Dade County in 2000 was 52.57-46.29 Gore; in 2004, it was 52.89-46.61 Kerry.  That's actually a net gain of exactly zero towards anyone (!).

Maybe it was Miami/Broward..can't remember...I just remember hearing about it election night...so long ago. :P

Bush did make pretty significant gains in Broward (which is just Broward, not Miami-Broward)...not huge, but above national average.  :)

I thought Broward and Dade combined? I remember their being an amendment that passed (i voted against) where two counties merged.

Um...the only thing that come to mind are the 1997 name change from Dade County to Miami-Dade County, or the consolidated city-county of Jacksonville (with exceptions of other already-incorporated areas)...but, no, no Florida counties have changed in ages.

Uh wait, Fresno/County is a Republican stronghold. San Bernandino and Riverside are also very Republican.

Welcome to the forums.  :)

Fresno itself is not what I'd call a "stronghold," although it does certainly have a GOP lean.  Bush won it 51.8%-47.3%, which means it could theoretically flip with a Democratic win.

San Bernardino County may be a Republican stronghold, but the city itself is Democratic-leaning.  Then again, its turnout is also horrible - the city of San Bernardino has a voting population about 1.5 times as large as Rancho Cucamonga's, but regularly casts only about three-quarters as many votes.

Riverside, too, is more moderate than its county - 52.0%-46.7%.  Not a stronghold, but indeed Republian.

Bakersfield, on the other hand, is hyper-Republian - Kerry barely got one-third of the vote.  Pretty damn impressive for a city of nearly 300,000.

But they are all smaller, so the answer to this still almost certainly remains Jacksonville.

Oops, I forgot about that.  I'll call them tomorrow to see if I can get a precinct list for 2004.

Miami is definitely for Kerry

Fresno is confirmed Bush.

(sorry for digging) ROFL Wikipedia's saying that Dallas voted 1.4% for Bush.

It uses two sources:

1. The county results.  Which are obviously not the city results, and are what it's quoting.  (Bad Wikipedia, bad.)

2. A study that says Dallas cast 75% of votes for liberal candidates.  The study does seem to have some flaws, though.  The city of Vancouver, Washington, even considering split precincts in outlaying areas, did not vote for Bush as claimed.

75%? Hah. Dallas is about 35% white after all.

Yeah, I read that study. Allentown being one of the most conservative cities really strikes me odd, especially considering Kerry won Lehigh County.

And yeah, it really seems sometimes that Wikipedians can't tell the difference between a city and a county.

Allentown voted 58% for Gore. I doubt there was that big of a swing in 2004, which should stand that Kerry won it too.

That's what I thought.

Damn that study... It's the closest thing I have to determining what cities voted for Bush/Kerry and it's (somewhat) unreliable.

Unless abandoned apartment buildings are rising up and voting Republican, there is no way in hell that Allentown voted for Bush over Kerry.

According to the Lehigh County Board of Electors, Kerry trounced Bush in every single precinct in the city's 19 wards.

BUSH 14,131 (37.2%)
KERRY 23,882 (62.8%)

Dallas went Democratic as well, right?

I would assume so.  I've got the precinct-by-precinct data for Dallas County, but breaking it down between Dallas City and "Others" looks like it'd be tedious.

I'll do it if I find some spare time.

I thought it would have been San Antonio. I take it Kerry won Orlando.

Orlando isn't that big... San Antonio is much larger

Here are two links.

2004 Election results for cities - http://www.usnews.com/usnews/images/blogs/barone_election.htm

Largest Cities - http://www.city-data.com/top1.html

Using this data - see below BOLD = BUSH

1 New York, New York (pop 8,143,197)
2 Los Angeles, California (pop 3,844,829)
3 Chicago, Illinois (pop 2,842,518)
4 Houston, Texas (pop 2,016,582)
5 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (pop 1,463,281)
6 Phoenix, Arizona (pop 1,461,575)
7 San Antonio, Texas (pop 1,256,509)
8 San Diego, California (pop 1,255,540)
9 Dallas, Texas (pop 1,213,825)
10 San Jose, California (pop 912,332)
11 Detroit, Michigan (pop 886,671)
12 Indianapolis, Indiana (pop 784,118)
13 Jacksonville, Florida (pop 782,623)
14 Hempstead, New York (pop 751,276)
15 San Francisco, California (pop 739,426)
16 Columbus, Ohio (pop 730,657)
17 Austin, Texas (pop 690,252)
18 Memphis, Tennessee (pop 672,277)
19 Baltimore, Maryland (pop 635,815)
20 Fort Worth, Texas (pop 624,067)??

Those are metro areas, not the actual city limits.

Yeah, I wondered too when I saw Indianapolis going for Bush 2-1, when Marion County, where Indy is located in, was won by Kerry. And Indy makes up 90% of Marion county ...

The biggest give away is Detroit.

Austin's definately more liberal than Houston or Dallas. In fact, Kerry even won Travis county!

I'm kind of surprised Indianapolis was so close. When I was there it seemed like a typical urban area and probably saw about 10 white people who weren't either at the hostel I was staying at or there for the fest. I guess I must've been deep in "the hood", and there's plenty of other areas not like that at all. I did see a few suburban-esque neighborhoods though, but what's kind of surprising is those and the urban areas seem to be spread out all over, rather than just having one large spot of urbanity and the rest being suburban.

The CD which contains most of Marion county voted 56% for Kerry. But the outer areas of the county are probably heavily Republican (which may have made it close).

Yeah, I didn't visit those areas, I mostly stayed in northeast Indianapolis. The crazy thing though is with those numbers, Indianapolis whites had to had voted Bush about 2:1, and that's considering the city no doubt has some majority-white socially liberal pockets (almost all major cities do, even in the south). But considering how racially segregated the city is and how uber-GOP the suburban counties are it'd make sense. Still with those type of numbers Bush would've had to win even whites in urban parts, which seems very odd considering what those areas are like. I wish I could get precinct results to see how northeast Indianapolis voted.

I should note, I was in NE Indianapolis but still within the I-74 loop. I suspect outside the loop it's far more suburban and Republican.

That could be the case; Indianapolis has, if I'm not mistaken, one of THE most conservative suburban areas in the nation. But the suburban counties are growing fast as Indianapolis is undergoing the same thing Nashville is undergoing.

Indianapolis incorporated most of its (then) suburbs back in the sixties or seventies. That does something to a "city"s election results. It did *not* include 90% or anywhere close of Marion County before that.

I wonder how much the original city voted and its racial demographic.

I'd guess it's similar to the IN -7 district, which voted 58% for Kerry.

No, it's much smaller. (I've no idea how democratic or black it is, though.)

In 1960, the city had 476k inhabitants and covered 71k square miles
In 1970, the city had 745k inhabitants and covered 379k square miles - a larger area than today, actually (361k square miles)
IN7 covers 262k square miles.

The city boundaries had expanded several times before, btw:
1910 (earliest data I found) 33k sqm
1920 44k sqm
1930-40 54k sqm
1950 55k sqm
1960 71k sqm
1970 379k sqm
1980 352k sqm. The 1970s were also the only decade ever that Indy's population fell in.
1990 362k sqm
2000 361k sqm

In the suburban wingnut counties maybe, but not in Marion County.

It's simple math with the demographics. Mind you though that the outer parts of Marion county are basically the same as the uber-GOP suburban counties, so if Bush is winning 75% of whites in those areas, he clearly isn't getting the 2:1 numbers in the urban part of Indianapolis.

It would also be interesting to see what was the most densely populated city to vote for Bush, since some of the conservative large cities (Dallas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, etc.) contain a lot of suburban areas.

Probably some place in OC

I'm pretty sure Anaheim voted for Bush. Density 7,117.7/sq mi.

Indianapolis, Nashville, and Jacksonville do it right. They allow the entire county to vote in elections because they are consolidated- city governments which makes their entire counties part of their cities. This allows for Republicans to compete at the city leve. Brilliant!!!

By that logic, the GOP ought to be competitive in the Bronx as well.