Title: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: nclib on April 15, 2007, 06:13:49 PM Does anyone know the 2004 presidential results of any metro area(s)? I'm surprised I can't easily find this online, given that most metro areas contain whole counties. I have the 2000 results, so I'm also interested in comparing the swings from 2000-2004.
Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Alcon on April 15, 2007, 07:25:08 PM Do you have a list of which metro areas contain which counties? I'll be happy to do it for you.
Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 15, 2007, 08:19:48 PM Do you have a list of which metro areas contain which counties? I'll be happy to do it for you. As they were in 2004: http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/List4.txt Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Alcon on April 15, 2007, 09:32:03 PM This is more wrist-damaging than I expected. But if you make me a list of metro areas you're interested in (or a criterion), I'll make you a table.
I'm planning on doing votes cast total and Bush votes for each year, unless you want a more detailed table. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: nclib on April 16, 2007, 10:05:46 PM This is more wrist-damaging than I expected. But if you make me a list of metro areas you're interested in (or a criterion), I'll make you a table. I'm planning on doing votes cast total and Bush votes for each year, unless you want a more detailed table. Thanks, Alcon. I was just thinking of the 10-15 largest metro areas in the nation, and/or the major N.C. ones, whatever you're comfortable with. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: memphis on July 05, 2007, 05:05:00 PM Kerry won Memphis metro with 52.8%. It's probably one of his only Southern metros (even Atlanta, Austin, and New Orleans went for Bush). Gainesville, FL, with the huge University of Florida, is the only other one I could find (I don't count Southern Florida as the South). I have to say that the Census people included extremely rural areas within an hour's drive, which seems to me to be rather generous as to what consitutes a metro area,
Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: nclib on July 07, 2007, 05:09:05 PM Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%.
I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population? Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Alcon on July 07, 2007, 06:46:35 PM Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%. I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population? 53% white, 44% black. But DeSoto County, Mississippi, is really the only county large enough to threaten Shelby County, Tennessee's domination of the metro. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Jaggerjack on July 07, 2007, 10:03:51 PM What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.
Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: memphis on July 27, 2007, 10:14:13 AM Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%. I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population? 53% white, 44% black. But DeSoto County, Mississippi, is really the only county large enough to threaten Shelby County, Tennessee's domination of the metro. Yeah, I don't think there is any other metro in the nation that is as African-American. Living here, it's really hard to believe that the US is only 13% black and that TN is only 17% black. DeSoto is growing quickly but it is still tiny compared to Shelby. Republicans get far more votes in the eastern (white) half of Shelby County Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: memphis on July 27, 2007, 10:24:03 AM What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican. Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City.... Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Jeff from NC on August 02, 2007, 06:56:15 PM Kerry won Mecklenburg County (of which Charlotte, NC is the seat) with, I think, 52% - however most definitions of the Charlotte metro area include at least a handful of surrounding counties, which probably would give Bush a slight edge.
Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 03, 2007, 01:20:10 AM Kerry won the Raleigh/Durham metro with 52.4%. I'm surprised about Memphis. I've always thought of it as a socially conservative region. Does the metro have a high black population? 53% white, 44% black. But DeSoto County, Mississippi, is really the only county large enough to threaten Shelby County, Tennessee's domination of the metro. Yeah, I don't think there is any other metro in the nation that is as African-American. Living here, it's really hard to believe that the US is only 13% black and that TN is only 17% black. DeSoto is growing quickly but it is still tiny compared to Shelby. Republicans get far more votes in the eastern (white) half of Shelby County Yeah, I was just in Indianapolis, and I couldn't believe the city is only 25% black. I probably didn't even see 10 white people who weren't at the hostel or there for the fest. Like I said before, I must've been staying deep in the hood. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on August 07, 2007, 07:20:04 PM What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican. Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma -- They are not the top 15, but they're still pretty big, especially Oklahoma City and they count as metro areas. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Sbane on June 11, 2008, 01:30:26 AM The nine county san francisco bay area vote was 69.2-29.3% with a margin of 1,111,501 votes. If you exclude the bay area from California the margin of votes for Kerry would have been about 120,000. And the state would still have about 44 electoral votes so as you can imagine it would be tighter than Ohio in the PV margin. That just goes to show you how republican southern california is.
Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Torie on June 13, 2008, 10:52:17 AM What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican. Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City.... Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?). Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Sbane on June 13, 2008, 11:26:57 AM What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican. Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City.... Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?). Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it. Milwaukee and the Twin cities voted republican? That is a bit surprising. LA did not vote republican but they very pretty close( by my standards). You know everyone on here thinks LA and they think stone cold liberalism, but that is not the case. I do believe if you include the IE the pv margin for Kerry becomes something like a 5 point lead. If you compare that to the New York area or the chicago area you will see that they voted at a much higher rate for Kerry. No LA is not as bad as some of those southern cities, but we are somewhere in the middle. Definitely nowhere near the most democratic population center in America. P.S. Are Weld and elbert counties included in the denver area? If you do and not include boulder you get a slightly pro-bush result. Adding boulder just ruins all the fun for you guys. Also is park county of south park fame considered suburbs? I would guess not. The town the show is based of is not even located in the county if I remember correctly. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Torie on June 13, 2008, 04:27:21 PM Wow. there are a lot of counties in the Denver, MSA, but not Boulder. However, Weld isn't included either, so while Bush comes close, he loses.
Bush Kerry arapahoe 119,475 110262 adams 65,912 69,122 denver 69,903 166,135 jefferson 140,644 126,558 douglas 80,651 39,661 clear creek 2,522 2,989 Broomfield 12,007 10,935 gilpin 1,329 1,807 elbert 8,389 2,834 park 4,781 3,445 505,613 533,748 0.486 Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Sbane on June 14, 2008, 03:49:37 AM What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican. Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City.... Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?). Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it. Are you sure about the twin cities? I actually think they voted for Kerry by a pretty comfortable margin. Something like 100,000 votes or so if not more. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Torie on June 14, 2008, 11:09:19 AM Bush won the Twin City suburbs in 2004, but not the MSA. I was recollecting the burbs when I made my comment I think.
Kerry Bush Total 912,069 782,047 46.16% Minnea -156,214 -41,633 St. Paul -99,851 -35,671 656,004 704,743 51.79% Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Sbane on June 14, 2008, 11:14:08 AM Bush won the Twin City suburbs in 2004, but not the MSA. I was recollecting the burbs when I made my comment I think. Kerry Bush Total 912,069 782,047 46.16% Minnea -156,214 -41,633 St. Paul -99,851 -35,671 656,004 704,743 51.79% Yeah that makes sense.. Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Torie on June 14, 2008, 11:21:16 AM Ya barely. Bush won the burbs by 51.79%, and Minnesota ex the Twin Cities MSA by 51.44%.
It looks like Bush carried the Milwaukee MSA by about 10,000 votes per a back of the envelop calculation by the way. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Sbane on June 14, 2008, 11:30:01 AM Ya barely. Bush won the burbs by 51.79%, and Minnesota ex the Twin Cities MSA by 51.44%. It looks like Bush carried the Milwaukee MSA by about 10,000 votes per a back of the envelop calculation by the way. Yes I do believe you are right about Milwaukee. Alas las votas de muerte were not enough to turn Milwaukee blue. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: nclib on June 14, 2008, 11:58:14 AM And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican. It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population? Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one. The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Torie on June 14, 2008, 12:56:07 PM And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican. It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population? Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one. The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere. One might consider Georgia, North and South Carolina, Louisiana and Arizona as well, off the top of my head. And oh yes, definitely Mississippi (e.g. Rankin and DeSoto counties) and Indiana (the belt of counties around Marion County, which is co-extensive with the city of Indianapolis these days, after unigov went into effect). Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: Sbane on June 14, 2008, 01:54:26 PM And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican. It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population? Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one. The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere. One might consider Georgia, North and South Carolina, Louisiana and Arizona as well, off the top of my head. And oh yes, definitely Mississippi (e.g. Rankin and DeSoto counties) and Indiana (the belt of counties around Marion County, which is co-extensive with the city of Indianapolis these days, after unigov went into effect). LOL difference between red state and blue state perhaps? I admit I was thinking a bit locally. Title: Re: Results in 2004 by Metro Area Post by: nclib on June 14, 2008, 02:36:29 PM And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican. It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population? Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one. The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere. One might consider Georgia, North and South Carolina, Louisiana and Arizona as well, off the top of my head. And oh yes, definitely Mississippi (e.g. Rankin and DeSoto counties) and Indiana (the belt of counties around Marion County, which is co-extensive with the city of Indianapolis these days, after unigov went into effect). Those Southern states are best explained by more blacks living in rural areas than in suburbia. Rural Arizona appears to have a high Native American and Hispanic population. I'm not sure why suburban Indianapolis is so Republican. |