Talk Elections

I've decided to start a new alternative timeline starting with today:

5/8/07: Tom Allen annouces that he will run for Senate next year.
5/9/07: Big news in Virginia: Mark Warner announced that he will be seeking to be the Democatic nominee for Senate next year. Hours later, John Warner announced that he would be retiring from the Senate next year.
5/20/07: Wes Clark announces that he will not be seeking the Democratic nomination for president.
5/22/07: New polling comes out:

Republicans:
Giuliani 30%
McCain 21%
Thompson 15%
Romney 12%
Gingrich 11%
Huckabee 3%
Other/Undecided 8%

Democrats:
Clinton 38%
Obama 31%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 6%
Biden 5%
Other/Undecided 3%

Also, Steve Beshear and Anne Northrup win the KY Primaries.

5/25/07: Tom Davis announces that he will be challenging Mark Warner for Senate next year. An early poll comes out:
Warner 48%
Davis    40%

5/28/07: Chuck Hagel announces that he will not seek the Republican nomination for president, but left the door open to an independent run.


More to come later.

6/2/07: George Allen announces unexpectedly that he will challenge Tom Davis in the Republican primary for Senate.
6/5/07: Polling comes out for Virginia, Maine, and Colorado:

VA Primary:
Davis 47%
Allen  39%

VA General Election:
Warner  50%
Davis     35%

Warner  56%
Allen      31%

ME General Election:
Collins  44%
Allen     44%

CO General Election:
Udall       49%
Schaffer  40%

6/6/07: Polling come out for Minnesota:

MN Primary:
Franken   36%
Ciresi       35%

MN General Election:
Coleman   47%
Franken    34%

Coleman   44%
Ciresi        40%

6/10/07: Bill Clinton announces that he will be a candidate for his wife's Senate seat when she becomes president.
6/17/07: After Senate Democrats tries to set a deadline for troop withdrawal, Joe Lieberman switches caucuses and becomes a Republican.
6/20/07: To the surprise of everyone, Jim Webb forms a presidential exploratory commitee.

To be continued...

6/23/07: New polling comes out for the POTUS race:
Republicans:
Giuliani 28%
McCain 17%
Thompson 16%
Romney 14%
Gingrich 7%
Huckabee 5%
Other/Undecided 13%

Democrats:
Clinton 32%
Obama 32%
Edwards 12%
Webb 7%
Richardson 5%
Biden 5%
Other/Undecided 7%

6/25/07: Due to underfundraising and underperformance in the polls, Sam Brownback drops out of the race. He endorses Mike Huckabee for the nomination.
6/27/07: Mark Warner and Evan Bayh endorse Jim Webb in the race.
7/1/07: Alberto Gonzales resigns as Attorney General. George Bush nominates Orrin Hatch as his replacement.
7/5/07: Fred Thompson announces that he will not run for president.

To be continued (again)

Sounds interesting....how far out are you planning on going?

I don't know, I will at least make it to the 2010 midterms, but I plan on going as far out as 2014.

One question, why would Bill Clinton (who is in rather poor health) be re-entering the political arena again?

7/10/07: Orrin Hatch's conformiation hearing. He performs very well, and is confirmed 90-8, with Tim Johnson, and John McCain not voting.
7/11/07: Pleased by his second quarter fundrasing results ($15 mil), Jim Webb officially announces his candidacy for president. Many national and Virginia Democrats are upset that he is running after serving only 7 months in the Senate.
7/13/07: New poll for Virginia:
GOP Primary:
Allen  44%
Davis 43%

General Election:
Warner 46%
Davis    40%

Warner 44%
Allen     41%

7/15/07: Chris Dodd drops out of the race. He endorses Joe Biden and plans to retire from the Senate in 2008.
7/20/07: New olling comes out for the POTUS race:

Republicans:
Giuliani 31%
McCain 30%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 7%
Gingrich 6%
Other/Undecided 9%

Democrats:
Obama 29%
Clinton 27%
Webb 11%
Edwards 10%
Biden 7%
Richardson 7%
Other/Undecided 9%

7/21/07: Dick Cheney resigns due to poor health. He was diagnosed with cancer, and would not be able to carry out his duties for the rest of his term.
7/22/07: President Bush devises a vice-presidential shortlist:
Mike Pence
Dick Kempthorne
Ben Nelson
John Boehner
Chris Cox


To be continued (again)...

7/23/07: George Bush announces that he will be nominating Ben Nelson to be the VP. Ben Nelson kindly accepts the nomination.
7/30/07: The Nelson confirmation hearing begins. At the end, he is nominated 96-2 in the Senate and 395-40 in the House.
8/1/07: Ben Nelson resigns from the Senate and is sworn in as VP. Dave Heineman appoints Jon Bruning to Nelson's vacant Senate seat. Mitch McConnell celebrates as their party gains a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

Also, the long awaited unofficial Iowa Straw Poll:
Giuliani  27%
McCain  26%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 9%
T. Thompson 6%
Huckabee 6%
Gilmore 2%
Hunter 2%
Paul 1%
Tancredo 1%

8/2/07: Tommy Thompson drops out of the race and endorses Mike Huckabee. Similarly, Tom Tancredo also drops out of the race and endorses Duncan Hunter.
8/5/07: Mike Fahey announces that he will not be seeking Hagel's Senate seat. However, he will consider running against Bruning for the seat Ben Nelson recently vacated.
8/8/07: In what has been considered the "Huckabee Boom", Mike Huckabee more than doubled his standing in the race in a recent poll:
Giuliani  25%
McCain  24%
Romney 18%
Huckabee 15%
Gingrich 6%
Hunter 3%
Gilmore 2%
Paul 2%
Other/Undecided 6%
8/9/07: The Huckabee Boom continues as Huckabee raises $2 million in a fundraiser.

TBC...

Just a comment... I can't think of any conceivable way Ben Nelson could be enticed to be Bush's VP.  Though a conservative Democrat, he's a Democrat through and through.

He reluctantly takes the job to serve his country.

8/11/07: Mike Rounds declares that he will run for Senate next year.
8/12/07: How the Democrats are doing in Iowa:
Clinton                  25%
Edwards               23%
Webb                    20%
Obama                  12%
Richardson              6%
Biden                       6%
Other/Undecided     8%

8/15/07: Earl Blumenhauer declares that he will be running for Senate next year.
8/20/07: Democratic national polls come out:
Clinton 26%
Obama 25%
Webb 15%
Edwards 12%
Biden 9%
Richardson 8%
Other/Undecided 5%
8/24/07: John Edwards meets with Jim Webb today to discuss national issues. Many think that Edwards will be dropping out and supporting Webb within the next few weeks.
8/28/07: Sure enough, Edwards dropped out and endorsed Webb. He believes that his campaign isn't performing well enough to conceivably win the nomination, so he would endorse the next best candidate to improve their chances at the nom.
9/1/07: For the first time ever, both parties' contests are tied:
Republicans:
Huckabee 20%
Romney 20%
Giuliani 20%
McCain 20%
Gingrich 6%
Hunter 3%
Gilmore 2%
Paul 2%
Other/Undecided 7%

Democrats:
Obama 26%
Webb 26%
Clinton 26%
Biden 10%
Richardson 9%
Other/Undecided 3%

To be continued.....

9/6/07: McCain makes a major gaffe on the campaign trail. When holding a fundraiser in NH, he gets booed by Paul supporters prompting him to call the people booing him, "dumbf**ks".
9/7/07: Paul states that McCain should apoligize for the comment, but doesn't think that he should be obligated to apoligize.
9/10/07: All the contenders except Gilmore have called on McCain to apoligize for his remarks. The supporters intend on suing McCain, but Paul tries to distance himself from the lawsuit.
9/15/07: Newt Gingrich makes an early announcement about his plans. He states that he will not run for president, and that he will endorse Huckabee for the nomination.
9/19/07: Due to public disapproval, McCain apoligizes to Paul, his supporters, and the people of NH for the gaffe that he made.
9/23/07: Al Sharpton endorses Obama in the race.
9/27/07: End o' the month polling:
Republicans:
Huckabee 27%
Romney 21%
Giuliani 16%
McCain 7%
Paul 5%
Hunter 4%
Gilmore 2%
Other/Undecided 18%

Democrats:
Obama 30%
Webb 25%
Clinton 24%
Richardson 11%
Biden 10%
Other/Undecided 0% 

To be continued....

How does Webb goes to 26% when I don't believe he has much political experience.

Neither does Obama.

The reason he got that high was because Edwards dropped out and endorsed him because he though Webb could spread the populist message better.

10/1/07: Mike Fahey announces that he will be challenging Jon Bruning next year.
10/3/07: Barney Frank announces that he will be giving Kerry a primary challenge next year.
10/6/07: Chuck Hagel announces that he will not be running for reelection, and that he will run for president as an independent if the Republicans nominate a pro-war candidate.
10/7/07: Ben Nelson opens the door to a Senate run next year.
10/10/07: A look at the Senate races to come next year:
CO: Udall v. Schaffer
ME: Collins v. Allen
NH: Sununu v. Marchland
VA: (Davis v. Allen) v. Warner
SD: Johnson v. Rounds
OR: Smith v. Blumenhauer
MA: (Kerry v. Frank) v. Corsi
NE: Fahey v. Bruning
LA: Landrieu v. (Terell v. Jenkins)
10/13/07: Dick Cheney, who resigned the vice-presidency due to health problems, was diagnosed with lung cancer, and it not expected to live for longer than 8 months.
10/15/07: Days after Ben Nelson opened the door to a Senate run, Mike Johanns announced that he will be seeking Hagel's open seat.
10/17/07: Despite the surge's lack of sucess, Bush states that he will not withdraw troops from Iraq for the remainder of his term.
10/20/07: New polling:
Republicans:
Huckabee 24%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 18%
McCain 8%
Paul 4%
Hunter 3%
Gilmore 3%
Other/Undecided 17%

To be continued...

10/25/07: Chuck Schumer makes a bold move against Ben Nelson. He states that for Nelson's betrayal of national Democrats for accepting a Bush nomination and for flipping the Senate toward the Senate in the process, he will not be funding him if he makes a Senate campaign next year.
10/26/07: In response for Schumer's comments, Nelson states that he will not only vote against any tie-breaker legislation suggested by Democrats, but will run for Senate as an Nebraska Democrat, and will not caucus with the national Democratic party if elected.
10/27/07: Joe Lieberman, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, and Tim Johnson lend helping hands to their former moderate colleague in the Senate, and announce the formation of the new Centrist Democratic Party. They would still be members of the state Democratic Party, but they would be independent from the National Democratic Party.
10/29/07: Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Arlen Specter commend the actions of the people from the other side of the fence, and announce that they will join them in their formation of a centrist party. Their joining of the new party gives them the swing vote in the Congress. It is now 47-45-8 for the GOP.
11/1/07: The new Centrist Party convenes and elects its new party leaders. Jow Lieberman becomes the new Centrist Leader, Mark Pryor becomes the new Centrist whip, and the new Centrist Party Platform is drafted.
11/3/07: Seeing the disaster he created because of his announcement, Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid apologize for the comment he make. They hope that the 4 Democrats that joined the party to come back.
11/5/07: Joe Lieberman states that he and his new party will not accept his former party leader's apology, and that they will continue their new route toward a centrist legislature.
11/7/07: Mitch McConell uses the situation to his advantage, stating that he is proud of the 8 senators who left their party, and that they can feel free to caucus with whoever they want.
11/10/07: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Jim Webb announce their disgust with Joe Lieberman for abandoning the Democrats just because of a comment.
11/13/07: Max Baucus, Tom Carper, Evan Bayh, and Bill Nelson accuse Harry Reid of being too hostile to the center, and call on Reid to step down from his Senate leader status. " We cannot have Harry Reid ruling our party in the Senate when we need to court the center to get legislation passed", as Nelson explained.


To be continued....

11/15/07: New prez polling:
Republicans:
Huckabee 25%
Romney 21%
Giuliani 20%
McCain 13%
Paul 3%
Hunter 2%
Gilmore 1%
Other/Undecided 15%

Democrats:
Clinton 27%
Obama 26%
Webb 24%
Richardson 13%
Biden 7%
Other/Undecided 3%

11/17/07: Chuck Hagel says that he commends the actions of Lieberman and his colleagues, stating that although he won't join Lieberman's new centrist party, he feels that it is good for America, and wished that his colleague is a member, which many consider to be an endorsement for Nelson.
11/20/07: Mike Bloomberg announces the formation of a presidential exploratory commitee, and says that he will run on a national ticket with Hagel if the GOP nominates a pro-war candidate.
11/21/07: Joe Lieberman says that he will endorse the Bloomberg/Hagel ticket, because, although he supports the war, Mike Bloomberg would be better for America than any of the other candidates.
11/25/07: A month after the comment about Ben Nelson, Harry Reid stepped down as minority Leader.
11/26/07: Dick Durbin, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, and Bill Nelson announce that they will each seek to become the next minority leader. Of the four, only Bill Nelson is willing to move the Democrats toward a centrist path, and forgive Joe Lieberman.
11/27/07: The tally has been made for the next minority Leader. The results are:
Nelson 19
Durbin 18
Clinton  5
Webb    3

11/30/07: Of all the Democratic candidates, only Richardson said that he was pleased with Nelson's victory.
12/1/07: Joe Lieberman and Mark Pryor said they were pleased with Nelson's victory. As Joe Lieberman put it,"We will not go back to the Democrats because of this victory, but we will certainly be on better terms with them."
12/3/07: In an effort to win the 8 deciding votes in the Senate, Mitch McConell tries to moves more toward the center.
12/4/07: Focusing back on the POTUS race, as the Iowa caucuses are only a month away, here is some recent polling:
IA Republicans:
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 17%
Romney 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 5%
Gilmore 4%
Hunter 2%
Other/Undecided 27%

IA Democrats:
Webb 30%
Clinton 27%
Obama 21%
Richardson 13%
Biden 5%
Other/Undecided 4%

To be continued....

12/5/07: The IA Caucuses are only a month away, and every single candidate will probably be staying here for the next few weeks. In a Republican debate, McCain again made a gaffe when he referred to his opponents as "challengers to the throne". Paul made the biggest gain during the debate.
12/10/07: Mike Bloomberg proudly announces that he has raised $5 million since he formed his exploratory commitee.
12/12/07: A survey of ten pundits was taken, and all but one predicted that Giuliani would win IA.
12/15/07: As it is right now, Giuliani has the lead in Des Moines and Sioux City, while Huckabee has the lead in Cedar Rapids, Davenport, and Waterloo.
12/16/07: Steve King and Tom Latham both endorse Giuliani
12/17/07: Going to the Democratic side, we see that Webb leads in Des Moines, Sioux City, and Waterloo, while Clinton leads in Davenport and Cedar Rapids.
12/18/07: Bruce Braley and Leonard Boswell endorse Webb, while David Loebsack endorses Clinton. Chet Culver also endorsed Webb.


To be continued (and who will win the IA Caucuses?)........

12/20/07: Mike Bloomberg officially announces his candidacy for president.
12/21/07: Tom Harkin endorses Jim Webb; Chuck Grassley endorses Rudy Giuliani.
12/24/07: Christmas Eve: Almost every candidate except McCain, Paul, and Obama (who are in NH) can be seen in Iowa shopping malls.
12/29/07: Two weeks before the first primaries, here is how the candidates are doing in the first 5 states:
Republicans:
()
Blue=Giuliani
Red=Romney
Green=Huckabee

Democrats:
()
Blue=Clinton
Red=Webb
Green=Obama

1/14/08: I have fast-forwarded it two weeks, and results have come in for Iowa:
Republicans:
Giuliani 29%
Huckabee 27%
Romney 17%
McCain 11%
Paul 8%
Gilmore 3%
Hunter 3%

Democrats:
Webb 31%
Clinton 26%
Obama 19%
Richardson 15%
Biden 5%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 1%

1/15/08: Gilmore, Hunter, and Biden exit the race. Gilmore endorses Giuliani, Hunter endorses McCain, and Biden endorses Clinton.
1/16/08: Some polling for Nevada in three days:
Republicans:
Giuliani 31%
Romney 14%
Paul 13%
McCain 11%
Huckabee 10%
Other/Undecided 21%

Democrats:
Clinton 21%
Webb 20%
Richardson 16%
Obama 14%
Other/Undecided 29%

To be continued... (with Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina).

1/19/08: The results for NV come in, and they are wuite surprising:
Republicans:
Giuliani 36%
Paul 17%
Romney 16%
McCain 16%
Huckabee 14%

Democrats:
Richardson 27%
Webb 26%
Clinton 23%
Obama 18%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 1%

1/20/08: A look at how the candidates are doing on Tradesports:
Republican nomination:
Giuliani 60%
Romney 15%
Paul 14%
Huckabee 7%
McCain 3%

Democratic nomination:
Webb 30%
Richardson 24%
Clinton 21%
Obama 20%

1/20/08: Some polling for NH before I release the results:
Republicans:
Romney 32%
Giuliani 20%
Paul 16%
McCain 7%
Huckabee 5%
Other/Undecided 20%

Democrats:
Obama 28%
Richardson 21%
Webb 15%
Clinton 14%
Other/Undecided 22%

To be continued....

1/22/08: The results are in for NH:
Republicans:
Romney 36%
Paul 19%
Giuliani 17%
McCain 14%
Huckabee 12%

Democrats:
Obama 36%
Richardson 35%
Clinton 16%
Webb 9%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 1%

1/23/08: Seeing his mediocre performance in NH, McCain drops out of the race. He says that he will endorse whoever wins Arizona.
1/25/08: Given that Tsunami Tuesday is just a couple weeks away, lets focus on national polling:
Republicans:
Giuliani  26%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%
Other/Undecided 33%

Democrats:
Webb 28%
Richardson 24%
Obama 22%
Clinton 14%
Other/Undecided 12%

1/26/08: Some Florida and South Carolina polling for three days from now:
FL Republicans:
Giuliani 27%
Romney 14%
Paul 11%
Huckabee 11%
Other/Undecided 37%

FL Democrats:
Clinton 26%
Richardson 25%
Webb 20%
Obama 12%
Other/Undecided 17%

SC Republicans (2/2):
Huckabee 27%
Giuliani 23%
Romney 18%
Paul 7%
Other/Undecided 23%

SC Democrats:
Clinton 30%
Webb 22%
Obama 22%
Richardson 11%
Other/Undecided 15%

To be continued.......

Huh?

Updated for your convenience. :)

But, overall, how are you liking it?

1/27/08: BREAKING NEWS: Former Vice-President Dick Cheney, who resigned last year due to health problems, has died at age 66. He will be buried in the Capitol on February 5.
1/28/08: Ben Nelson gave a speech expressing sadness for Cheney and his family. he was widely expected to announce his candidacy for Senate, but did not.
1/29/08: Results for SC and FL:
FL Democrats:
Clinton 30%
Richardson 29%
Webb 19%
Obama 17%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 1%

FL Republicans:
Giuliani 38%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 15%

SC Democrats:
Clinton 34%
Obama 26%
Webb 24%
Richardson 12%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 1%

2/1/08: Although the SC primary is tomorrow, let's focus on Tsunami Tuesday for a moment:
Republicans:
()
>30%=primary already held
>40%=primary not held, but not on 2/5
>50%=primary on 2/5
B=Giuliani
R=Romney
G=Huckabee

()
B=Clinton
R=Webb
G=Obama
W=Richardson

2/2/08: The GOP SC primary results are in:
Huckabee 34%
Giuliani 29%
Romney 27%
Paul 8%

To be continued... (with Tsunami Tuesday).

2/3/08: Ben Nelson announces his candidacy for Senate. Meanwhile, Joe Lieberman forms the Centrist Coalition PAC to raise money for the 4 centrists up for reelection.
2/5/08: The moment we have all been waiting for. The party nominees-to-be are.......


()
Rudy Giuliani and........

()
Hillary Clinton.

2/6/08: The candidates devise their vice-presidential shortlists:
Giuliani:
Duncan Hunter
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Sam Brownback
Tommy Thompson
Tim Pawlenty
Jeb Bush
Mark Sanford
Bob Riley

Clinton:
Bill Richardson
Barack Obama
Bill Nelson
Linc Chafee
Phil Bredensen

2/7/08: The candidates' advisors narrow down their lists:

Giuliani:
Duncan Hunter A staunch conservative with foriegn policy experience and federal government experience
Mitt Romney Two northeasterners on the same ticket.
Mike Huckabee No foriegn policy experience
Sam Brownback Two Catholics on the same ticket
Tommy Thompson Has governed effectively and has experience on the federal level
Tim Pawlenty No foreign policy experience
Jeb Bush Too close to W
Mark Sanford No foreign policy experience
Bob Riley No foreign policy experience

Clinton:
Bill Richardson Western Latino with experience at all levels of government
Barack Obama Charismatic senator who can connect with the base
Bill Nelson Too essential in the Senate to be a veep
Linc Chafee Two northeasterners on the same ticket
Phil Bredensen Conservative southern governor

2/7/08: After much thinking on both sides, the tickets are revealed:
Republican:
Rudy Giuliani/Duncan Hunter

Democratic:
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson

Centrist/Unity:
Mike Bloomberg/Chuck Hagel

2/9/08: Ben Nelson, Mike Fahey, Mike Johanns, and Jon Bruning each win their respective nominations for U.S. Senate, Meanwhile, Landreiu's opponent is eashablished to be Woody Jenkins.
2/12/08: The moment we have all been waiting for: Mark Warner's challenger for Senate is.....Tom Davis.

To be continued......

I am angered at how great Ron Paul did, and the nominees make me want to puke.  But interesting

2/15/08: A brief look at the race as it is right now:
()

Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

2/19/08: A poltical strategist theorizes that having three New Yorkers on the ballot will help Giuliani because:
1. Iraq is expected to big a big issue
2. Both his opponents oppose Iraq

He expects that Clinton and Bloomberg will split the anti-Iraq New Yorker vote and give Giuliani the lead. He recommends the Clinton try to paint herslf as an Arkansan to help her campaign.

2/20/08: National polling comes out:
Giuliani 39%
Clinton 35%
Bloomberg 15%

2/23/08: Expressing his dissatisfacion for the current field, Gary Johnson announces that he will run for president as a Libertarian.
2/25/08: To Giuliani's chagrin, Arnold Schwarzenegger endorses Mike Bloomberg over him.
2/27/08: Rumor has it that Joe Lieberman has met with 8 congressman about the posibility of forming the "Centrists" in the House of Representatives.
2/28/08: Joe Lieberman appoints Olympia Snowe in charge of helping Centrist candidates win tough races this November, among them being Tim Johnson, Mary Landreiu, and Susan Collins.
3/1/08: After three months of petitioning, Mike Bloomberg will be on the balot in all fifty states.
3/2/08: Joe Lieberman reports that 12 Democratic congressman will switch to the Centrists when the 111th Congress convenes. Mike Bloomberg has discussed with Joe Lieberman the possibility that the election may go to the House, and has been planning for such a scenario.
3/8/08: Ron Paul refuses to support any of the three candidates, and instead endorses Gary Johnson.


To be continued.....

3/12/08: Bad news for Al Franken and John Kerry. Mike Ciresi and Barney Frank won the DFL endorsement and MA primary, respectively. Here are the results for the MA primary:
Frank 50.1%
Kerry 48.9%
Patrick (WI) 0.9%

3/15/08: Following the advice of the political strategist, Clinton makes a speech in Little Rock claiming that she is a "native Arkansan"
3/16/08: Another brief look at the race:
()

Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

Clinton 34%
Giuliani 33%
Bloomberg 21%

3/17/08: St. Patrick's Day. All three of the major candidates are in Boston campaigning.
3/20/08: When asked which of the three candidates he would endorse, Bush said he wouldn't lay a role in the election, and wouldn't attand the Republican National Convention.
3/22/08: Bad news for the Clinton campaign. When attending an Iowa fundraiser for his wife, Bill Clinton arrived drunk, and accidentally barfed onto one of the donors. Jokes about Barf Clinton are common.
3/25/08: Bloomberg announces that he will be taking a three week campaign trip. He will be going to CT, NY, NJ, CA, IA, MO, NV, and CO.

To be continued......

I smell a sort of Anti-Dem bias...

Don't worry; within a few updates it should be the other way around.

3/28/08: A look at the Senate races:
()

As you can see, VA is the only Democratic gain so far. Democrats have the edge in CO, NE, and NE, but Republicans have the edge in ME and LA.

4/1/08: Jim Matheson announces that he will run for Senate in Utah's special election.
4/3/08: Polling shows that Republicans will gain 9 congressional seats at this point.
4/5/08: Contrary to what he originally said in January, McCain endorsed Bloomberg.
4/6/08 and 4/7/08: FoxNews conducts interviews with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Bloomberg (Hillary Clinton was invited, but turned down the offer). After the interviews, views were asked who they would rather have as president. The results were startling to the Giuliani campaign:
Bloomberg 62%
Giuliani 32%
Unsure 6%

4/9/08: Two years after his Senate defeat and one month after his Senate pirmary defeat, George Allen announces that he will be working on a documentary about America's problems. The documentary will be released in 2010.
4/11/08: Newt Gingrich asks Allen if he can costar in the documentary.
4/15/08: New polling:
()

Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

Clinton 33%
Giuliani 29%
Bloomberg 27%

I like the way this topic is going. Bloomberg just a few points behind Giuliani and winning important states and still has a chance. How well does Bloomberg do in Florida? :D (I'm from there)

I will be updating this sometime this week.

4/18/08: Scandal comes for the Giuliani campaign as both of his ex-wives announce their support for Hillary Clinton.
4/20/08: Joe Lieberman makes a speech at Harvard University concerning bipartisanship. He bitterly criticizes Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani during his speech, and complements Bloomberg for his middle-of-the-road campaign. Here is his approval ratings:

CT Voters:
Approve  71%
Disapprove 19%

National Voters:
Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%

4/24/08: Giuliani receives even more criticism for his ad depicting citizens in the Clinton presidency as clone soldiers.
4/25/08: Giuliani's campaign is scared further when President Bush hinted that he would endorse Giuliani.
4/27/08: After a corruption scnadal from June of last year, Ted Stevens resigns from Congress.
4/29/08: Sarah Palin announces that she will not run for Stevens' seat. She says that she will appoint Sean Parnell to hold the seat until the election.
5/2/08: Belatedly, Giuliani offcially apoligizes for the gaffes of the past two weeks.

To be continued...

5/5/08: Some recent polling:
()

Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

Bloomberg 31%
Clinton 27%
Giuliani 21%

5/7/08: BREAKING NEWS: A terrorist attack has happened on a San Francisco trolley car today as suspected terrorist Mohammed al-Faruni suicide-bombed himself. 36 people were killed in the incident, with another 21 injured.
5/8/08: Gavin Newsom makes a speech about the attack. He commemorates the people who deid in the attack, but said that Bush cannot be doing a good job in foreign policy if this kind of attack has happened on our home soil.
5/10/08: Sean Parnell announces that he will seek reelection as AK Senator. Mike Gravel has left the door open for a run, but will almost certainly face residency issues.
5/12/08: To Giuliani's disappointment, Charlie Crist annouced that he would support Mike Bloomberg.

To be continued...

Yes, Bloomberg's winning Florida. Do you have any information on how the swing states (the gray and also slightly colored states) are tilting? I might be the only one in here but I like to read these what-if posts, they keep me entertained. Keep up the good work :) 

As a matter of fact, I do. IA, OH, WV, and NV are leaning toward Clinton, WI is leaning toward Bloomberg, and TN is leaning toward Giuliani.



Thank you. I always like enocuragement. :)

I'm enjoying this too.  Well done so far!

5/14/08: An agressive ad campaign ensues as Bloomberg runs ads in key states criticizing Giuliani's record as mayor.
5/16/08: Bloomberg confirms in a speech that, if elected president, he would enstate universal health care.
5/19/08: FoxNews offers to the three major candidates to participate in the first presidential debate on 8/8/08.
5/20/08: Giuliani and Bloomberg quickly accept the invitations to the debate. Clinton has yet to make a decision.
5/22/08: Clinton has made here decision; She will attend the debate. Here is a transcript:

CLINTON: I realize that Fox isn't the most fair and balanced network, but a lot of voters watch it, so I will attend.

5/23/08: Clinton's decision to attend the debate infuriates DNC Chairman Howard Dean. Dean says that if Clinton attends the debate, he will force delegates to withhold their votes for Clinton at the convention.
5/24/08: At the LNC, Gary Johnson officially becomes the Libertarian nominee.
5/25/08: In defending opponent Hillary Clinton, Bloomberg made a speech about Howard Dean's actions:

BLOOMBERG: Howard Dean doesn't seem to realize that 4 Senators left his party last year because of their inability to work with people from the other side of the aisle.

5/26/08: Clinton confirms that she will be attending the debate. She said this about Dean:

CLINTON: I'm not taking advice on how to run a campaign from an outright loser of his last campaign. I think that we really need a new party chairman, who can work well with peole on the other side of the aisle.

5/28/08: Dean confirms that his threats are serious by talking to Barack Obama and Bill Richardson over the possibility of becoming the nominee.

To be continued...

Bloomberg supporting UHC?  Wouldn't that kill his support among economic conservatives

He supports it in real life, so I figure I should be realistic.

Cool, I'm not the only guy reading this post. Anyways, are there any other third party/independent candidacies? I reckon Gary Johnson was a former Gov. of NM??. I wonder who he chose as VP :D. I'm loving each moment of the post, I like these intense and speculative simulations. I hope you have a surprise for us. Keep it up!

Gary Johnson chose Steve Kubby as his veep. And don't worry; I have a surprise headed for you, though it may offend som Democrats on the forum.

How did you do the white on Senate maps? Did you do it with MSPaint?

No, I just made the Republican/Democrat win by >20%. if you ask, "How do you do that," the answer is simple. All you need to do is change:
AL=2;9;5

to

AL=2;9;2

if Alabama is the state you wish to change.

6/1/08: The state of the race as it is now:
:
()

Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

Bloomberg 29%
Clinton 28%
Giuliani 24%

6/2/08: One year from today. Howard Dean announced that he will be holding the DNC annual conference on the 18th.
6/4/08: A recent report reveals the while mayor, Bloomberg may have used tax money to give Bloomberg LP money.
6/5/08: Frustrated with the choices for president, Bill O'reilly flirts with seeking the Constitution Party's nomination.
6/8/08: Due to increased pressure from the DNC, Clinton announces that she will not attend the FoxNews debate, though she stated that it was because the debate would be held before the party conventions.
6/9/08: Due to Clinton's absence from the debate, FoxNews invites Gary Johnson to attend. Johnson accepts the invitation.
6/11/08: Johnson runs the first as of his campaign. His ad boasted that he is the only candidate who supports cannabis legalization.
6/14/08: Craig Thomas dies of leukemia today. He will be buried in the capital on the 15th.


To be continued.....

Good work, keep it up!

As I really don't support Clinton, and I'm not too fond of either Giuliani, Bloomberg, O'Reilly, or Johnson, I would vote Green most probably. Although I could maybe vote Clinton.

Thank you. I can assure you that there will be a surprise within the next three to four posts.

6/15/08: Bill Gates announces that he will donate $2 billion to Bloomberg's campaign.
6/16/08: Dave Fruedenthal appoints Barbara Cubin to Craig's Senate seat.
6/18/08: At the DNC meeting, Howard Dean loses his position as chairman to Evan Bayh.
6/20/08: Joe Lieberman's new book, Stuck Down the Middle, is released.
6/22/08: Joe Lieberman appears on The O'reilly Factor to discuss his new book. Bill O'reilly ultimately gives Lieberman an easy time on the show.
6/25/08: Bill O'reilly announces that he will not run for president, but instead support Giuliani.
6/26/08: Chairman Bayh unveils his new strategy for Democratic success. He says that if the party wants to survive 2010, they will need to appeal to the center more often.
6/27/08: Duncan Hunter holds a meeting with Ben Nelson discussing the vice-presidency. He said that he held the meeting because, "Those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat it."

If only the polls where like that in real life.

6/30/08: Ross Perot, crawling out of the political grave, appears on Meet the Press, and jokingly considers abother Reform Party run.
7/1/08: Bill O'reilly retracts his endorsement of Giuliani and instead supports Perot's potential run.
7/4/08: The Fourth of July. Perot announces that he will once again run for president as a Reformer.
7/6/08: New polls:
()


Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

Clinton 31%
Giuliani 27%
Bloomberg 19%
Perot 5%
Johnson 3%

7/10/08: George Bush also retracts his "support" of Giuliani in favor of Perot.
7/11/08: Perot attends The O'reilly Factor. When asked why he is running, he says:

PEROT: Look, Bill, my campaign has two main issues: the War and CAFTA. So far, non eof the candidates running oppose both. That's why I'm running.

7/13/08: A a campaign stop, someone asks Bloomberg why he switched parties in 2002. He replies:

BLOOMBERG: Well, after 9/11, I came to realize that the Republicans have it right on some issues, like terrorism and taxes.


To be continued....

Wow.

Do you mean that in a good way or a bad way?

Good, I quite like Perot.

7/15/08: Perot announces that he has found a unning mate for his campaign: Mike Gravel.
7/16/08: Mike Gravel happily accepts the VP nomination.
7/18/08: The Giuliani camp begins an attack campaign against Hillary Clinton. They dig up almost anything they can find, fro corporate scandals to her record as senator and first lady.
7/21/08: The first as of the attack campaign airs on national television during the Simpsons. The ad creates nationwide controversy, with some defending Giuliani and FOX, while other feel that the attack was unprecedented.
7/23/08: In response to the attack ad, the Clinton campaign aired an attack against Giuliani's mayoral record and personal life.
7/26/08: Due to the attack ad controversy, Bloomberg announced that he would sign a "Non-Proliferation Treaty", stating that his campaign wouldn't attack the other candidates unless they attacked first.
7/27/08: Perot also signs the treaty, saying that we don't need to dig up dirt on the two main candidates to realized they are flawed.
7/29/08: Johnson also runs an attack ad criticizing Giuliani, Bloomberg and Clinton for their authoritarian policies on New Mexico public television.
8/2/08: As promised, Bloomberg lauched an attack ad against Johnson. When asked why he ran the attack 3 days after Bloomberg signed the treaty, Johnson said that "negative publicity is better than none."


To be continued...

(Only 1 more update until the Democratic Convention)

How are the swing states leaning? By the way, Gary Johnson was the Libertarian candidate for President I heard many people talk about. Talk about surprises. By the way, could you possibly show us all the tickets? Also, are the colors the same? I really like this thread. Thanks for your creativity :)!!!

Here are the tickets:

Bloomberg/Hagel (CC)
Johnson/Kubby (L)
Perot/Gravel (R)

Also, these three aren't officially the nominees yet, but are expected to be:

Clinton/Richardson (D)
Giuliani/Hunter (R)
Nader/Foster (G)

And the gray states or light blue/ light red states are leaning for which candidate?

Update, I can't wait.

GIuliani is winning OH and TN
Clinton is winning IA and MO
Bloomberg is winning NE.

be patient, it will come tomorrow.

Cool, I thought it was like that. By the way, what are the best states for Johnson and Perot? I'm loving each second of it :) 

yeah--thank you!!  This is very entertaining!

Interesting but I don't understand a few thing about Perot.

1. Simply why would he run? He is 78 years old and he'd fall similarly with Bloomberg with his politics.

2. Why would Perot pick Gravel? Not only is Gravel in his late 70's but they are miles apart on their politics. I can't see the logic there.

Nevertheless, please continue. It's pretty good!

Perot's best states are ME and UT, while Johnson's nest states are AK and NM.


Thank you for the encouragement. This has to be the most popular timeline I've ever made, :)


1. Perot wants to make a last stand in politics.
2. Perot liked the theme of Gravel's campaign.
3. Thank you, once again. :)

I think the Reform Party still has ballot access in only 3 states, I believe.

8/8/08: The FoxNews debate: The debate was a major help to Giuliani's floundering campaign. Bloomberg had a terrible performance, and Johnson performed fairly well. Here's a post-debate poll about who won the debate:
Giuliani 53%
Johnson 38%
Bloomberg 9%

8/10/08: Given the lower-than-expected support the Perot campaign is getting, Perot announced that if the Democrats didn't nominate Hillary Clinton, he would drop out of the race.
8/11/08: Evan Bayh renews Howard Dean's calls to prevent Clinton from getting the nomination. He has been contacting delegates and trying to get them to not vote for Clinton and instead vote for Obama, Richardson, or Gore.
8/13/08: New polling:
()


Tossup=<3% margin
Slight=<6% margin
Lean=<10% margin
Strong=>10% margin

Giuliani 34%
Clinton 26%
Bloomberg 14%
Johnson 4%
Perot 2%

8/15/08: Bill Richardson publicly responds to Evan Bayh's requests and states that he will try to steal the nomination from Clinton.
8/16/08: To respond to Richardson, Clinton says that he will no longer be on the ticket if she is nominated. She will announce her new choice tommorow.
8/17/08: Hillary Clinton announces that her new running mate will be:
Wes Clark. Wes Clark happily accepts the offer and says that he will attend the convention.
8/19/08: Barack Obama also announces that he will try to take Clinton's nomination.
8/20/08: Amid speculation that Al Gore will also try to take the nomination, Gore makes a Sherman Statement in Denver. He announces however that he will be making the Keynote Address at the Convention.
8/21/08: Dave Freudenthal announces that he will be challenging Barbara Cubin for Senate. He draws criticism for nominating a horrible candidate so she would be easy to beat.
8/24/08: It is revealed that Bill Clinton may be having an affair....


with Paris Hilton.

To be continued......and with these questions to be answered:
1. What will happen with Bill Clinton's relationship?
2. Who will be the Democratic nominee?
3. What will Al Gore mention in his keynote address?

All to be answer on the next update.

Just to let you know, the Democratic National Convention will be presented in Real Time, meaning that I will present it in an hourly basis instead in the usual daily basis. Thank you for reading.

-SPC

Continue the good work with your TL SPC. It's a very good timeline. But, I find it just a tad bit quite wrong that, the 3 day jailbird Paris Hilton is having an affair with Bill Clinton. I don't want to imagine that any further!

I can see you're favoring Gary Johnson...

How so? By including him in the FoxNews debate?

And now, without further adoo, I bring you the 2008 Democratic National Convention!:

8/25/08 5:00 PM: Al Gore starts the convention by delivering the keynote address. In the address, he talks about the threat of global warming and the threat of neoconservatism. He frequently bashes George Bush in the address and comdemns Joe Lieberman for splintering from the party last year.
8/25/08 6:30 PM: After Al Gore's address, Stehen Colbert makes a speech, in character, making puns like, "I have no idea why the Democrats invited me to their convention." He also parodies George Bush, Rudy Giuliani, Duncan Hunter, and Joe Lieberman. he gets a thunderous applause for his "speech", and is rumored to be a potential "Anti-Hillary" candidate.
8/25/08 7:45 PM: Evan Bayh also makes a speech concerning the new direction of the Democratic Party. He reitterates that if the Democrats are to survive 2010, they must move ina new, moderate direction.
8/25/08 8:45 PM: As the night comes to a close, here is a preview of the delegates should be voting:
Clinton 2100
Richardson 1102
Obama 809
Webb 31
Unpledged 325

8/26/08 6:45 AM: BREAKING NEWS: It is revealed that Bill Clinton and Paris Hilton are dead in Bill Clinton's hotel room, and have died from stabbing. Hillary Clinton is believed to be the prime suspect, given that she was in the hotel room that night. She has been arrested and sent to Denver County jail until further notice.
8/26/08 9:00 AM: Bill Richardson takes advantage of this "national tragedy", and he refers to it, and states that he believes that he would be the best Democratic nominee during this "crisis".
8/26/08 10:35 AM: Wes Clark states that he is not interested in the Democratic nomination, and wishes to be the VP nominee.
8/26/08 1:00 PM: There have been calls to delay the convention, but Evan Bayh declines, saying that, "We can't let the death of a great man stall the nomination process."
8/26/08 5:25 PM: Bill Nelson makes a speech, honoring Bill Clinton, but also restating Evan Bayh's call to attract the center.
8/26/08 6:30 PM: Barack Obama and Bill Richardson respectively make speeches. Each one emphasized the importance of why a Democrat must be elected president in 2008.
8/26/08 8:30 PM: Joe Biden ended the night by displaying his Iraq partition plan.

To be continued (with the rest of the convention)....

Yes and by making him poll 7% in the polls.

I can't buy Hillary stabbing her husband, I hope this doesn't take an unplausible turn.

Hashemite, you call that plausible ?!?

SPC - I can't buy that - come on!

You think I should just retract the whole thing about Bill Clinton and Paris Hilton?

Yes. I think Clinton's days with affairs and woman are quite over now...

Well, I shoudl finish what I started, so here it goes:

(August 26-September 14)
Richardson inevitably wins the Democratic nomination by 50 votes. He selects runner-up Obama to be his veep. After the convention, Perot drops out and endorses Richardson. Gore hints that he might consider endorsing Nader, but untimately sticks with Richardson/Obama. For the Senate races, Gravel was not allowed to run in Alaska, Freudenthal leads Cubin, Udall leads Schaffer, Warner leads Davis, and Nelson leads Johanns. On the other hand, Coleman is beating Ciresi, Landrieu is beating Jenkins, Bruning is beating Fahey, and Collins is beating Allen. Bloomberg puts his campaign into full gear, and the debates are looming in a few weeks.

Yes, I will update this soon.

Hey, you said you were going to report soon. What's up, I'm really waiting?

I'm on vacation right now. I will update it on the 13th.