Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on June 03, 2007, 01:43:56 AM



Title: New Zealand 2008
Post by: Hash on June 03, 2007, 01:43:56 AM
Looks like a National landslide coming up...

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15954

National 50.9%
Labour 33.6%
Greens 6.1%
NZ First 3.2%
Maori 1.7%


Title: Re: New Zealand 2008
Post by: Verily on June 03, 2007, 10:42:55 AM
Labour's been pretty good at rebounding in the past. It was expected that they would lose in 2005, but they held on. Most of National's gains come as a result of the collapse of ACT and United Future (and NZ First somewhat), not from Labour.


Title: Re: New Zealand 2008
Post by: merseysider on June 03, 2007, 11:08:56 AM
The very poor showing of the smaller parties in the poll is what stands out to me. I wouldn't take too much notice of the National lead; it is mid-term after all.

I think New Zealand's experience of PR since 1996 parallels that in Scotland since 1999. There was an initial surge of support for smaller parties (United Future, NZ First, Alliance, ACT and the Greens in NZ; the Greens, the Scottish Socialists, the Senior Citizens' Unity Party and various independents in Scotland). However, over time, politics is returning to a natural two-party rivalry - Labour v National in NZ; SNP v Labour in Scotland.


Title: Re: New Zealand 2008
Post by: Bono on June 04, 2007, 01:47:45 AM
Okay, this is getting a bit ridiculous. We're still in June 2007!