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Title: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 10, 2007, 08:27:18 AM Not that anyone should seriously believe that Frank Lautenberg will lose his re-election bid (especially considering the quality of GOP challengers looking at the race can be described as "piss poor" at best), but his numbers are still surprisingly low against a generic Republican.
Quote from: Quinnipiac University Release Sen. Frank Lautenberg gets a 41 - 32 percent approval; Republicans disapprove 49 - 31 percent while Democrats approve 55 - 14 percent and independent voters split 36 - 37 percent. Only 31 percent of New Jersey voters say Sen. Lautenberg deserves to be reelected in 2008, while 42 percent say he doesn't deserve to be reelected. But 40 percent of voters say they would vote for Lautenberg if his reelection were today, with 33 percent who say they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate. Democrats would go with the incumbent 77 - 7 percent, while Republicans would stay with their party 74 - 7 percent. Independent voters tend to back the unnamed Republican 34 - 30 percent. Lautenberg, 83, "is too old to effectively serve another six-year term as U.S. Senator," 54 percent of voters say, while 40 percent say he is not too old. Even Democrats say 48 - 44 percent Lautenberg is too old, while Republicans say 62 - 35 percent he is too old and independent voters say 53 - 41 percent the incumbent is too old. Lautenberg, who narrowly won a first term in 1982 by insisting that Republican Congresswoman Millicent Fenwick was too old for the job, would be 90 years of age by the end of his fifth term. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on July 10, 2007, 12:59:22 PM Not suprising at all for New Jersey. Three almost universal principles in NJ political polling: 1.) Incumbents always have low approval ratings. 2.) General election polls show a high percentage of undecideds. 3.) Undecideds break for the Democrat. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Keystone Phil on July 10, 2007, 03:08:56 PM And he'll be re-elected by at least twenty points.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 10, 2007, 03:10:46 PM And he'll be re-elected by at least twenty points. That would make the first time, then, that he's ever won by more than ten. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Keystone Phil on July 10, 2007, 03:11:37 PM And he'll be re-elected by at least twenty points. That would make the first time, then, that he's ever won by more than ten. Yeah, well the GOP isn't even trying (not that they should. NJ is a lost cause). Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on July 10, 2007, 03:14:30 PM Polls 16 months out in NJ are worthless.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 10, 2007, 03:15:00 PM Polls 16 months out in NJ are worthless. What a coincidence—so is Senator Lautenberg! Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on July 10, 2007, 03:16:19 PM Polls 16 months out in NJ are worthless. What a coincidence—so is Senator Lautenberg! He's one of the best Senators, although he did vote for torture. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 10, 2007, 03:16:51 PM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 10, 2007, 03:31:23 PM Polls 16 months out in NJ are worthless. What a coincidence—so is Senator Lautenberg! He's one of the best Senators, although he did vote for torture. He is a cranky, partisan prick who shamelessly won office by smearing a distinguished stateswoman. During his time in the Senate, he was consistantly outshined by the brilliant, socially-liberal-but-fiscally-moderate Bill Bradley. And there's not a day of the week where I wouldn't take ten Jon Corzines over one Frank Lautenberg. Even Bob Menendez, whom I'm not fond of, is a better politician. His 2002 maneuverings to return to the U.S. Senate were disasterous, costing New Jersey tons of seniority because he was too eager to work out a fair deal with Daschle. He pretty much worked out to the NJ Democrats' ninth choice to replace Torricelli on the ballot after Bradley, Florio, and the seven incumbent Congressmen turned it down. The only person I can say I prefer Frank Lautenberg to is Bob Torricelli, and that's only because I think Bob Torricelli belongs behind bars. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Verily on July 10, 2007, 03:59:37 PM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Jacobtm on July 10, 2007, 08:09:55 PM It's NJ, they're out of their minds.
I feel like if you took a hat with the names of every university graduate in NJ, and just randomly assigned them to government positions, you'd end up with a better group of people than they have now. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 11, 2007, 01:47:31 AM Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. In New Jersey, though? No effin way. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 11, 2007, 09:03:43 AM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Conan on July 11, 2007, 10:13:33 AM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 11, 2007, 11:09:09 AM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true. My point is that a good challenger is not necessary, even in Schundler/McGreevey McGreevey couldn't pull 60% Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Conan on July 11, 2007, 11:27:28 AM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true. My point is that a good challenger is not necessary, even in Schundler/McGreevey McGreevey couldn't pull 60% Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 11, 2007, 11:32:50 AM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true. My point is that a good challenger is not necessary, even in Schundler/McGreevey McGreevey couldn't pull 60% You obviously missed my point of uber-popular Democrat combined with scandal ridden not loved Republican does not produce 60%. I guarantee at least 40% of New Jersey will not vote for a Democrat and at least 50% will not vote for a Republican. There is really only 10% wiggle room. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 11, 2007, 11:35:16 AM Unless Mike Doherty becomes the nominee (and I seriously doubt someone that conservative could win the GOP nomination in New Jersey), it doesn't seem likely that Lautenberg will win with a margin unlike his past races.
Now that soon-to-be-State Sen. Chuck Pennachio is looking into a run, I think he'll take the nod. He's a pretty staunch conservative, but he's not crazy-right like Doherty is. I don't know if the independently wealthy Anne Estabrook is going anywhere, but if she somehow becomes the nominee, she'll at least have enough cash to play with the big boys. Doug Forrester, Chuck Haytaian, and Pete Dawkins were all terrible, unattractive candidates in their own rights. Frank Lautenberg isn't getting more cuddly and loveable with time, that's for sure, so I don't see how his numbers wind up getting appreciably better if the caliber of GOP candidates remains constant. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 11, 2007, 11:36:19 AM Against Doherty, I'd be surprised if Lautenberg could win by more than 15%.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 11, 2007, 11:38:43 AM Let's rank the Republican candidates:
1.) 2.) 3.) 4.) 5.) Yeah were pretty screwed Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 11, 2007, 11:50:34 AM Let's rank the Republican candidates: 1.) 2.) 3.) 4.) 5.) Yeah were pretty screwed It's funny, whenever national Republicans seriously pursue a Senate seat in NJ, they always fall up short by the same slightly-less-than-10 point margin (1988, 1996, 2006); whenever they wind up punting the seat in the electoral pre-season (1990, 2000, 2002), they almost wind up winning the damn thing to spite themselves. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 11, 2007, 11:53:03 AM Let's rank the Republican candidates: 1.) 2.) 3.) 4.) 5.) Yeah were pretty screwed It's funny, whenever national Republicans seriously pursue a Senate seat in NJ, they always fall up short by the same slightly-less-than-10 point margin (1988, 1996, 2006); whenever they wind up punting the seat in the electoral pre-season (1990, 2000, 2002), they almost wind up winning the damn thing to spite themselves. Franks more of a suprise than usual, however, I think 2002 can be explained due to "unforeseen circumstances" Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Adlai Stevenson on July 11, 2007, 11:54:03 AM I predict Lautenberg is re-elected along the lines of 54%-43%.
Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: DownWithTheLeft on July 11, 2007, 11:59:14 AM I predict some reason this race becomes competitive when Fmr. State Assembly Majority Leader Paul DiGaetano steps in. Final result:
Lautenberg 50% DiGaetano 48% That's how much sense NJ politics makes Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Keystone Phil on July 11, 2007, 12:13:25 PM Unless Mike Doherty becomes the nominee (and I seriously doubt someone that conservative could win the GOP nomination in New Jersey), it doesn't seem likely that Lautenberg will win with a margin unlike his past races. Why wouldn't Doherty become the nominee? The NJ GOP has given up on this race and rightfully so. Nobody cares who the nominee is. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Verily on July 11, 2007, 12:19:07 PM This surprises no one. Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person. Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now. I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true. Err... no, not in general elections, either, which is exactly what I was referring to. Currently, perhaps, but not as a "general rule" somehow applicable to anything more than the current political environment. Title: Re: Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33% Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 11, 2007, 12:40:05 PM Franks more of a suprise than usual, however, I think 2002 can be explained due to "unforeseen circumstances" Ridiculous. Torricelli was on very unstable ground going into 2001 as his ethics woes started surfacing, but a post 9/11 bounce kept the credible challengers out of the way. I did not see 2000 as a strong possibility for a GOP pick up, and I don't see 2008 a strong possibility for a GOP pick-up, but for the life of me, I couldn't understand why I was the only person in the state of New Jersey to think Bob Torricelli vulnerable in the slightest. Why wouldn't Doherty become the nominee? The NJ GOP has given up on this race and rightfully so. Nobody cares who the nominee is. Simply because I think Pennachio would be able to win over more primary voters with his more main stream conservatism. The NJ GOP as a whole isn't that conservative: I believe its still majority pro-choice. |