Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on September 13, 2007, 06:57:07 PM



Title: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 13, 2007, 06:57:07 PM
For any French electoral maps of any election. Kind of like Tender's Austrian thread :P

My 'series' on the 2007 legislative election should be out soon.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 15, 2007, 12:55:34 PM
French legislative circonscriptions as of 2007, in use since 1988

()

Saint Barth and Saint Martin should become a seperate constituency for 2012 after they voted to secede (OMG) from Guadeloupe in June 2007.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 15, 2007, 12:57:18 PM
The Presidency of Departments following the French cantonales elections, 2004

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 15, 2007, 12:59:16 PM
Departmental strength of each 3%+ candidate in the first round of the 2007 Presidential elections

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 22, 2007, 04:39:38 PM
Results of the French legislative election, 2007

Second Round

()

First Round

()

Edit Dec 15 2007: Corrected result in the 4th constituency of the Aisne, DVG not PRG


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 25, 2007, 04:44:41 PM
Anybody looking/following this? Should I continue?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Serenity Now on September 26, 2007, 07:09:01 AM
I'm looking keenly, I just don't have a lot to comment about :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 26, 2007, 07:10:50 AM

It's already made, I'll post it tonight


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 26, 2007, 03:34:20 PM
Results of the French legislative election, 1993

Second Round

()



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2007, 03:42:15 PM
Are there any requests, I have adequate resources for post-1988, although I could do some department-level maps for elections such as 1968, 1848, 1936.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 03, 2007, 04:04:14 PM
Some of the Left seats that survived in 1993 are very surprising; did a lot of FN candidates get into the second round or something

I'd like to see 1988, btw.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2007, 04:06:13 PM
I'll try to find my 1988 map if I can


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 03, 2007, 04:06:44 PM

Diolch :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on October 03, 2007, 04:09:44 PM
Some of the Left seats that survived in 1993 are very surprising; did a lot of FN candidates get into the second round or something

 
I think so. Probably fewer than in 97, though.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 03, 2007, 04:14:09 PM
Some of the Left seats that survived in 1993 are very surprising; did a lot of FN candidates get into the second round or something

 
I think so. Probably fewer than in 97, though.

I'm thinking in particular of those suburban ones lost this year


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2007, 04:17:01 PM
Some of the Left seats that survived in 1993 are very surprising; did a lot of FN candidates get into the second round or something



In the Oise, there was a three-way PS-UDF-FN race that went 39.62-39.04-21.32, same thing in the lone PS riding in the Rhone (Meyzieu) went 39.76-34.79-28.44 (PS-UDF-FN again), in the Marseilles area, the 12th, 4th, 10th, and 8th ridings were all left-right-FN races except for a two-way PS (or PCF)-FN runoff in Megret's riding (12th) and 4th. In Pyrennes-Orientales, the lone PS riding there was a two-way PS-FN race. One PC-FN runoff in the 93 btw. So, surprisingly not much FN presence in the left's seat. Most of the seats were either well-known incumbents (Beregovoy is one) or solid PS seats.

Found 1988. :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2007, 04:18:46 PM
Results of the French legislative election, 1988

Second Round

()

1988 is one of the rare ones that wasn't a large/huge/enormous defeat for either left or right.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 03, 2007, 04:22:56 PM
In the Oise, there was a three-way PS-UDF-FN race that went 39.62-39.04-21.32, same thing in the lone PS riding in the Rhone (Meyzieu) went 39.76-34.79-28.44 (PS-UDF-FN again), in the Marseilles area, the 12th, 4th, 10th, and 8th ridings were all left-right-FN races except for a two-way PS (or PCF)-FN runoff in Megret's riding (12th) and 4th. In Pyrennes-Orientales, the lone PS riding there was a two-way PS-FN race. One PC-FN runoff in the 93 btw. So, surprisingly not much FN presence in the left's seat.

But enough to explain most of the very strange holds.

Quote
Most of the seats were either well-known incumbents (Beregovoy is one) or solid PS seats.

Where was his seat? Nievre? Or was he moved somewhere else?

Quote
Found 1988. :)

:)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2007, 04:26:05 PM
Beregovoy's seat was in Nievre (1st riding) and the 1993 result was quite close considering he was quite well known: 53.69 for him and 46.31 for "Rostein-RPR"


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2007, 07:34:29 PM
Any other requests, I have 1997 if anybody is interested by that one :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Colin on October 05, 2007, 08:20:21 PM
Any other requests, I have 1997 if anybody is interested by that one :)

I am. Post whatever you have.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2007, 08:24:33 PM
Results of the French legislative election, 1997

Second Round

()

The site I used didn't give breakdown of the "left" which includes a majority of Socialists, but also MRGs and MRCs (Republican and Citizen). Apologies on my part, but it does include the Greens.

The LDI is La Droite Independente, the predecessor of the MPF also led by de Villiers (who was a former UDF)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Colbert on October 06, 2007, 02:05:03 PM
hello everybody, nice to can post on this marvelous forum.


here, some maps of last prez elections

legend (for all candidates):

1 to 4 most strong regions : dark blue
5/8 : blue
9/11 : sky
12/14 : orange
15/18 : pink
19/22 : red


()
BOVE (libertarian, left-wing)

()
LAGUILIER (trotskyst)

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BESANCENOT (libertarian-communist)

()
BUFFET (libertarian-socialist)

()
VOYNET (libertarian-ecologist)

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ROYAL(social-liberal)

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BAYROU(liberal)

()
SARKOZY(liberal-conservative)

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VILLIERS (national-conservative)

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LE PEN (nationalist)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2007, 07:10:34 AM
Having a same color for each candidate and use different shades for each % range would work better.

Some classifications are a bit wrong too


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Colbert on October 07, 2007, 09:12:55 AM
Having a same color for each candidate and use different shades for each % range would work better.

Some classifications are a bit wrong too



no, with this way, we can see the geographic forces of each parti



all classifications are true,


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2007, 08:51:39 AM
You didn't understand what I said, I asked for one color scheme per party instead of the same everywhere.

How can Besancenot not be considered a trotskyist and instead a Libertarian? How is Royal a social liberal and not a social democrat? How is Buffet, Bove, Voynet all libertarians? Libertarianism in France is quite irrelevant, the closest you come to find one is AL (and that's more of classical liberalism than US-style libertarianism).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2007, 09:44:48 AM
Regional Results of the French presidential election, 2007

First Round

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Regional Results of the French presidential election, 2002

First Round

()

Funny how the Limousin was Chirac's best region in 2002 and one of Royal's best regions in 2007 :)



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2007, 09:49:10 AM
Seat results of the UDR in the French legislative election, 1968

Overall Results

()

Some regions really never change, don't they? (Nievre, Cotes d'Armor, 9-3)

Taken from a map from my 1968 edition of the Atlas Historique Stock

I'll take a few other interesting old maps from there of French elections (they have the Parti de l'Ordre in 1848, 2 maps for the Front Populaire, and other interesting maps)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Colbert on October 08, 2007, 03:39:04 PM
()

more definited, map by departement. Same way : to dark blue to brown, from up to down (12 departements by color)

in opposition with the words of bayrou, this map shows clearly that is vote come from the most basically moderate-right-wing lands of the country, it is exactly the same map** of catholicism'"influence" ( sorry, I don't konw the english word for that)


**at the exception of the "locally factor" of the gascogne lands


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Colbert on October 08, 2007, 03:44:53 PM
()


the eternal map of the communist party...From 28% to 2%, the communists's strong places are always the same : north, centre and mediterranean lands

in a way, it is exactly the opposite map of bayrou's vote


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2007, 05:21:50 PM

in a way, it is exactly the opposite map of bayrou's vote

Not surprising really.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2007, 05:33:33 PM
Candidates with 50%+ of the vote by the first round of the French legislative election, 2007

Elected, First Round

()

Candidates in second place in the first round of the French legislative election, 2007

()

For those who might be surprised to see the FN second in Haute Marne, it was only 8.7% or around that, nothing huge (so are a few other in the UMP-solid circonscriptions)

Edit Dec 15 2007: Error in second position map in Lyon, wrong constituency for the PRG


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2007, 05:42:09 PM
Departmental strength of each candidate in the second round of the 2007 Presidential election

()

Quite similar to the first round, but Royal was the one gaining the most votes (as seen by her taking a few departements that voted Sarkozy on the first round.

Winner of each departement, second round, 2007 Presidential election

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Winner of each departement, first round, 2007 Presidential election

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Key should be pretty easy to guess in this last one


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2007, 07:12:07 AM
1. Frankly, I don't know. From what I see, some seats were contested by candidates under a UDF or RPR banner, for example Chirac is classified as an UPF candidate. The UPF was mainly a front like the Presidential Majority is today really. I wouild say the UPF were common candidates in areas they wanted to win from the left or where there was a strong RPR or UDF incumbent to defend.

2. The UDF was founded in 1978 as a party comprising of the PR, CDS, PSD, PR etc. The PSD and CDS became the Force Democrate in 1995 under Bayrou's pressure and was thus the largest group within the UDF. In 1998 after the stories of the UDF supporting the FN in various regions to get a rightist majority, the liberals issued from the PR left to form the Democratie liberale group which formed a common slate with the RPR in 1999 European elections while Bayrou led a dissident Nouvelle UDF list (the nouvelle UDF reunited the FD and a few other fringe groups. And we all know the rest.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2007, 08:14:34 AM
Thank for your comments.

The problem of French politics is that the political identity of particular politician is often very obscurely uttered. After elections 1997 the Le Monde (in paper version) told the political party of the elected candidates, but normally the French are not very able to tell the affiliations. We know that the PR was always largest component of the coalition and CDS was second, the others being   smaller. However, the official lists of National Assembly seldom tell such things.

Couldn't agree more. That's because of the god-awful DVD-DVG-DIV classifications which are useless to me and you :) Some people are able to classify further than that and break that up, but its very rare. Same goes for results which are grouped into 'far-left', 'far-right', 'regionalists' without giving us results in % and # for say the MNR or UDB candidates (sucks). In 2007 its awful to still operate like this.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2007, 06:34:10 PM
% vote FN in the first round, 1993 legislative election

% vote, FN candidates

()



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 10, 2007, 04:42:49 PM
% vote CPNT in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, CPNT candidates

()

Once again, those hunters in the Somme with their 6 and 8%, but it's a huge drop considering the CPNT's results here in the 1999 European election and in 2002 Presidential, where in some towns St. Josse took over 50%!



Might as well announce my current projects:
MPF, FN, and Regionalists in 2007, and some Presidential and other electoral maps (I still take requests of course)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 11, 2007, 06:35:05 PM
% vote for Les Verts in the first round, 1997 legislative election

% vote, Green candidates

()

Voynet won the seat of Dole in Jura with 31.11% in the first round and 55.95% in the second round (she was defeated in that same seat in 2002; noteworthy that she reached the second round as a Green-GE candidate in 1993 but lost in the second round against a UDF candidate. There was also another runoff in 1993 with a Green-GE candidate in Alsace). In 1997, Mamere got the best Green score with 34.01% in R1 and around 60% in the second round. I find it a quite interesting map. The PCF map (in 1997 again) next.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 11, 2007, 06:41:54 PM
% vote for the French Communist Party in the first round, 1997 legislative election

% vote, PCF candidates

()

The Commie belt at it again in Brittany (nearly 30% in Guingamp). Best score 41.1% in the Nord (Valenciennes Nord). 4 seats they took 100% in the second round BTW.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on October 12, 2007, 12:42:21 PM
% vote CPNT in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, CPNT candidates

()

Once again, those hunters in the Somme with their 6 and 8%, but it's a huge drop considering the CPNT's results here in the 1999 European election and in 2002 Presidential, where in some towns St. Josse took over 50%!



Might as well announce my current projects:
MPF, FN, and Regionalists in 2007, and some Presidential and other electoral maps (I still take requests of course)
Very entertaining pattern of support here - especially when you just look at which seats they contested. :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 12, 2007, 03:42:23 PM
% vote for Frederic Nihous in the first round, 2007 presidential election

% vote, F. Nihous (CPNT)

()

Posted for Lewis to compare with the CPNT map in the legislative election. CPNT vote in legislative elections is always lower than in the presidential election (Around 4% in the 2002 presidential, but around 1% in the 2002 legislative)


Title: French election maps- 1936 Popular Front map NOW POSTED!
Post by: Hash on October 12, 2007, 06:25:15 PM
% vote for the Popular Front, 1936 legislative election

% vote for the Popular Front

()

A very interesting map we've got here. Funny how some regions in France never can change (Cotes d'Armor, Manche, Alsace, Haute Garonne and Ariege etc.) while some can change a bit (Rhone for example is more right-wing nowadays)

Enjoy :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 07, 2007, 04:35:41 PM
Bump :)

Any chance of some maps of the election just after the Second World War?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 07, 2007, 04:38:29 PM
The closest I can get is 1951, I haven't found any department-by-department maps for 1945.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 07, 2007, 07:36:28 PM
1951 legislative election

()

National results were PCF 26.93%, RPF 21.62%, SFIO 14.62%, Moderates (right) 14.15%, MRP 12.62%, RGR 10.05%.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 08, 2007, 08:48:01 AM
1969 Presidential Election

First Round

()

Damn that 9-3. They prevented a full sweep for Pompidou :(


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2007, 08:25:41 PM
2007 Legislative Election: By Departement

Winning Party, 2nd Round

()

This map is more or less worthless because it only takes into account party labels, and not ideological labels, though that for example MPF and UMP are seperate, that explains the uhm weird results, like the PS winning in Vendee, or the UMP in Haute-Pyrenees or the 9-3. The next map is worth more than this one.

Winning 'Ideology', 2nd Round

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That's more like it!

Winning Party, 2nd Round

()

See my analysis for the very first map on this page, although this one is a bit less worthless

Winning 'Ideology', 1st Round

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Party in second position, 1st Round

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 15, 2007, 06:05:08 PM
% vote MoDem in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, UDF-MoDem candidates

()



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 15, 2007, 06:07:36 PM
% vote PRG in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, Left Radical candidates

()

It seems like they lacked the courage to put up lots of candidates where PS candidates were running :P, a pity since they're saner than the PS and have good policies.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 15, 2007, 06:12:39 PM
Results of the French legislative election, 2002

Second Round

()

First Round

()

What this page was missing was 2002.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 16, 2007, 12:28:00 PM
Any 'orders'/requests?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on December 17, 2007, 03:46:24 PM
1951 legislative election

()

National results were PCF 26.93%, RPF 21.62%, SFIO 14.62%, Moderates (right) 14.15%, MRP 12.62%, RGR 10.05%.

Ah, those pre-sunbelt days... what a beautiful sea of red Provence is... sigh.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Math on December 17, 2007, 07:22:56 PM
our solid south !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 17, 2007, 07:25:27 PM
While I'm here, are there any requests?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 17, 2007, 07:36:11 PM

First round results (by candidate) of the second Presidential election of the 5th Republic would be interesting.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 17, 2007, 08:22:27 PM

First round results (by candidate) of the second Presidential election of the 5th Republic would be interesting.

1965? I have resources for that one.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2007, 05:51:10 AM

First round results (by candidate) of the second Presidential election of the 5th Republic would be interesting.

1965? I have resources for that one.

Dammit; should have said direct elections (so '69). But '65 would be interesting as well.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: PGSable on December 18, 2007, 06:41:17 PM
Dammit; should have said direct elections (so '69). But '65 would be interesting as well.

1965 was the first direct election; 1958 was the first election of the Fifth Republic, held by electoral college.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2007, 06:48:50 PM
Dammit; should have said direct elections (so '69). But '65 would be interesting as well.

1965 was the first direct election; 1958 was the first election of the Fifth Republic, held by electoral college.

Ah, slight confusion here. By '69 I meant the second direct election.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 18, 2007, 07:56:52 PM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 23, 2007, 03:14:28 PM
% vote Regionalists in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, all regionalist candidates

()

Larger version (http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/4319/2007legifrregye8.png)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 29, 2007, 12:18:57 PM
Socialist Presidential primary, November 2006

Overall results

()

Larger version (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2007_29_12_07_12_14_31.PNG)

Best score was 99% in Reunion IIRC. Seine Maritime is the department of Laurent Fabius which he won with over 60% (favorite son factor), he seemed to also affect results in Eure (only >40% victory for Royal), and the Oise at a lesser level. Val d'Oise is DSK's home department, which he was 2% from winning (45% for Royal, and his support was also big in the Petite and Grande couronne departments.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on December 29, 2007, 12:24:04 PM
So what's up with Puy-de-Dome?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 29, 2007, 12:40:08 PM
Fabius was strong in the Puy-de-Dome, Creuse, Indre, and Cher.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: PGSable on December 31, 2007, 02:39:49 PM
Very interesting. I would have expected Royal to do better in Ille-et-Villaine and Aquitaine. What's with Haute-Corse?

Would you happen to have candidate maps for Fabius and DSK?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 31, 2007, 03:12:30 PM
Sure, I can do DSK and Fabius as soon as I get back to Ottawa (the 4th IIRC)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 12, 2008, 08:12:36 AM
Socialist Presidential primary, November 2006

% Fabius

()

Larger version (http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/9011/presidential2007psprimadh8.png)

% DSK

()

Larger version (http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/7292/presidential2007psprimawr5.png)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: PGSable on January 12, 2008, 12:20:54 PM
Much appreciated.

Is there any particular reason for Fabius's strong showing in Aquitaine (Gironde, Landes, Pyrénées-Atlantiques) and Haute-Corse? It also seems that he did well in the Diagonale du vide.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 12, 2008, 05:43:22 PM
Personally I couldn't say, I don't know too much about intra-party voting trends.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2008, 03:35:29 PM
Overseas French vote, 2007 presidential election

First Round

()

Larger version (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2007_15_01_08_5_41_12.GIF)

Best result was 80 some percent in Israel for Sarkozy.

Second Round

()

Larger version (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2007_15_01_08_5_42_06.GIF)

As said in the Gallery comments, I shaded France in with the nationwide results. No Overseas French there :D


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2008, 03:43:56 PM
Incumbent Mayors as of 2008, 2001 municipal elections

First Round

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Municipal2001-2008Inc.png)

Also includes all mayors of the 4 Petite Couronne departments as of today. CAP stands for "Coalition pour une alternative progressiste"; a small anti-liberal commie party close to the PCF. SE means "Sans etiquette", or Indies; CNIP should be known but stands for "Centre national des independents et paysans", a tiny party nowadays (quite big in the 50s though) that's the conservative-right faction of the UMP (they ran common lists with the FN in 1986 and supported the LDI in 1997, now UMP 'associate'). GM, of course, stands for Gauche Moderne, Bockel's party.

Edit Feb 1 2008: Jean-Pierre Brard (Montreuil) is CAP, not PCF; and Bruno Joncour (Saint Brieuc) is MoDem, not NC/UDF


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2008, 08:01:08 AM
% vote for the French Communist Party in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, PCF candidates

()

% vote for The Greens in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, Green candidates

()



UMP and PS maps coming up next, after that maybe MPF if I'm brave enough.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 18, 2008, 12:32:08 PM
Regional elections now.

2004 regional elections

Second Round

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional2004-R2.png)

By region now. I guess most of us have seen this awful map a million times.

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional2004.png)

Runoffs in regional elections have a 10% and therefore in 2004, a vast majority of them were PS-UMP-FN runoffs. There is a 5% threshold in Corsica for the runoff, so that explains that. Interesting to note that the "left" actually won Corsica if you put PRG, CSD, PCF votes together. Oftentimes the media doesn't pay attention to locals in Corsica because they use a stupid system.

First Round

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional2004R1.png)

Listening to the France2 post-first round broadcast was interesting because it confirmed that the left's tsunami was not expected to be as huge as that.

There should be a FN logo in Nord-Pas de Calais. Will probably fix that soon enough.

1998 regional elections

Overall by party

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1998-R1.png)

The FN won in Haut-Rhin because of the division of the left and right IIRC.

Overall by Ideology

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1998-R1ID.png)

Corsica held the 1998 elections in 1999 apparently. Once again, they have a weird system.

Leading Party by department

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1998-R1V2.png)

Prior to 2004, regional elections used a one round-only system with 5% proportional representation by department. Note that where the Greenies, PCF, Radicals, MDC came out on top was because they were the left-wing party (no PS list). Reunion is not PCF but PCR, but I was too lazy to change that.

Overall regional presidencies

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1998.png)

A few of the right-wing majorities were obtained due to FN support.

CPNT seats

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1998-CPNT.png)

Means in which regions they broke 5% in atleast one department.

LO-LCR-CAP seats

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1998-EXG.png)

Means in which regions they broke 5% in atleast one department.

1992 regional elections

Overall regional presidencies

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1992.png)

T'was a year before the 1993 RPR-UDF tsunami.

1986 regional elections

Overall regional presidencies

()

Larger version (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Regional1986.png)

Held on the same day as the 1986 legislative elections. Marked by the decline of the PCF and rise of the FN.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 13, 2008, 04:15:28 PM
*blows dust off thread*

Updated 1997 with a breakdown of the left category:

()

Fixed some other errors, mostly in the deep and confusing world of DVD/DVG labels. Nothing major to add.

Fixed 1993, a few errors. DVG in this case means (generally) the MDR, a centre-right party that participated in the Rocard etc. governments and ran as "Presidential majority".

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Also a Greenie map for 1993, where they did quite well (but underperformed from polls, one of which had them on 16%!). The total Greenies, split in 4/5 parties/groupings won around 10% but no seats (they weren't allied with the Socialists yet). Usual Greenie voting patterns that are hard to observe in post-1993 Greenie voting map because of strong votes where they were the candidate of the left and so forth. Strong in Alsace (Waechter or whatever his name is was still in the Green Party and a major leader), Rhone-Alpes, parts of Bretagne and Pays-de-la-Loire, and Paris/IdF.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 13, 2008, 04:24:12 PM
2002 first round results by constituency

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Saint-Josse won two constituencies in the Somme and Bayrou won his constituency. The Chirac favourite son factor in Correze and Cantal obviously. Quite hilarious that Le Pen didn't win the Dreux seat, but won the Nogent seat.

"Low" results for Chirac in the Neuilly, 16eme, Issy area; but mostly due to Le Pen doing quite well and the Madelin, Bayrou, Boutin etc. candidacies.

Might do 1995 and 1988 if there is any interest.



Some very, very old maps that are on my website but not posted here.

()

The Parti de l'Ordre was a bourgeois, right-wing conservative, monarchist party that originally supported Louis-Napoleon but fell out with him when he started acting authoritarian and wanting a second term (constitutionally impossible IIRC).

()

'Conservatives' are monarchists, most of the time.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: PGSable on May 13, 2008, 06:01:34 PM
Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

The last two maps are as expected, but how did the conservatives fail to win a majority in Vendée?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 13, 2008, 06:53:06 PM
Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

Le Pen seems to do better in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne than in the other departments of Aquitaine.

It's also stretching it a bit to say he did "so well" in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne, Gironde-5 was very close (Chirac was only a few % behind). Saint-Josse and CPNT do well there too (14.7% in Gironde-5 in 2002). Gironde-11 was also close.

edit: The FN also had a seat(s) in Bordeaux until this year.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 15, 2008, 04:58:39 PM
Blast from the past.

2007 maps, basically to get them here to compare with the '95 maps I'm doing (hopefully Hue didn't win any constituencies, since I'm out of colours)

runoff

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first round

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Le Pen broke 20% in one constituency (Saint-Dizier, Haute-Marne). Buffet broke 9% in one constituency in the Nord. Royal got fourth in most rural Alsatian constituencies (where Bayrou did quite well, oc) and would've finished fourth if Strasbourg and the cities hadn't propped her up a bit. de Villiers prevented Sarkozy from breaking 30% in all but one of the Vendee constituencies. The CPNT voting block in Gironde, the Somme, and Manche collapsed totally from 2002 (a bit below 6% in the two constituencies Saint-Josse had won in 2002).
Royal also had a favourite-daughter effect in her department, she got higher scores than most Socialists usually do there IIRC.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 15, 2008, 11:10:12 PM
Where did you get the extra colors?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 16, 2008, 06:46:11 AM

I stole UDF orange from Huckabee's colour scheme here, and I made the Le Pen crap-colours.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 25, 2008, 06:52:16 AM
Finally, the MPF 2007 map.

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larger here (http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/5251/legislative2007mpfxz0.png)

I'll comment later.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on June 01, 2008, 06:49:52 AM
These two maps are in the gallery already.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 01, 2008, 10:27:45 AM
Fun stuff!

Vote for Renouvin, 1974 royalist candidate

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 01, 2008, 01:32:59 PM
Fun stuff!

Vote for Renouvin, 1974 royalist candidate

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Does that map mean anything?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 28, 2008, 08:03:10 PM

Bretagne is very weird. But I suppose Renouvin's general leftiness might've turned some royalists off. The Royalists (the AR, which is a rightie eurosceptic party) did "best" (or least awful, a better term) in Bretagne in the 2004 EU election.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 28, 2008, 08:06:18 PM
Now for the point of me coming here again.

Maps for the only religious survey data out there, the IFOP 2006 one.

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A huge majority of those citing "Catholic" aren't regular church-goers, though.

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()

()

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Verily on July 28, 2008, 08:09:57 PM

La Rochelle, how you have changed! (Although it is interesting to see the slight bulge in Protestantism in the area.)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 28, 2008, 08:19:31 PM
To add to the Catholic map, a map by region of those going to church atleast once a month (8.6% average).

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And the averages for religions, excluding Corse.

Catholics 64
Protestant 2.1
Muslim 3
Jewish 0.6
No religion 27.6


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Verily on July 28, 2008, 10:01:10 PM
I there information on religious attendance by religion? I would assume Muslims have a high attendance rate, but is there a substantial difference between Catholics and the Protestant minority?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 29, 2008, 01:53:58 AM
Why so many Muslims in Haut-Rhin?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Serenity Now on July 29, 2008, 04:46:40 AM
I can't see any of the new maps - and I reeaalllyyy want to! :(


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 29, 2008, 06:31:45 AM
I there information on religious attendance by religion? I would assume Muslims have a high attendance rate, but is there a substantial difference between Catholics and the Protestant minority?

IFOP only gave attendance data with Catholics.


Peugeot auto workers from North Africa.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 29, 2008, 06:43:59 AM
Before I forget- any requests?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 29, 2008, 07:01:07 AM
Surprised to see Lozere not being part of the, ahem, Greater Camisard Area. Though the Protestant towns there are tiny.

I will also have to repost that map on the Catholic v Anti-Clerical divide in the '60's that I made a while back.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 29, 2008, 07:02:14 AM
I will also have to repost that map on the Catholic v Anti-Clerical divide in the '60's that I made a while back.

Please do.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 01, 2008, 10:37:44 AM
Starting again with some more EU election maps (this time from 2004).

First up, MPF.

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I can explain any patterns, if needed.

Next: RPF


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 01, 2008, 11:14:43 AM
These three maps are from a book on electoral geography published in the '70's. Any mistakes are thus not my fault:

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And this is a map I found on teh interwebs:

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 01, 2008, 12:07:49 PM
The Le Pen belt is quite clear in that last map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 01, 2008, 12:08:26 PM

The Catholic map?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 01, 2008, 12:23:17 PM

Yup.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: MaxQue on August 01, 2008, 02:41:14 PM
Starting again with some more EU election maps (this time from 2004).

First up, MPF.

()

I can explain any patterns, if needed.

Next: RPF

Why the MPF vote is so high in Ain/Jura and Var?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 01, 2008, 02:48:18 PM
The MPF list leader in the Est region was Jean-Louis Millet, former MPF mayor of Saint-Claude who also has a high favourite son vote. (Fun fact: he was defeated in 2008 by a Communist).

Var and Alpes-Maritimes have a high non-FN national-conservative RPF/MPF type of voters that vote RPF/MPF in EU elections.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 03, 2008, 08:28:06 AM

In some parts, yes. But other areas of the Catholic map (Bretagne, Pays de la Loire, Pyrenees-Atlantique, Lot, ) equate with some of Le Pen's worst regions. And, in addition, the FN strength in Alsace is not as historical and solid as the FN strength in PACA is, for example. Alsace is still one of the most pro-European areas of France.

Exit polls don't breakdown the presidential vote by religion, of course, but I doubt Le Pen's base electorate is the fervent Catholic electorate. Far from that, in some cases.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 03, 2008, 08:30:36 AM
To continue with the EU maps,

RPF

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dark gray means 0 votes, light gray means no list.

UMP

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An UDF map will be coming next, because in some cases it's vital in understanding the UMP map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: MaxQue on August 03, 2008, 12:01:30 PM
To continue with the EU maps,

RPF

()

dark gray means 0 votes, light gray means no list.

UMP

()

An UDF map will be coming next, because in some cases it's vital in understanding the UMP map.

I think than you forgot to finish the UMP map. Île-de-France but Seine-et-Marne is not colored.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 03, 2008, 12:12:53 PM
Correct. Thanks. I'll finish it now.

Edit: Done.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 03, 2008, 01:19:04 PM
UDF

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 03, 2008, 05:08:55 PM
Greenies

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1999 Greenies (second-best result after Waechter 1989)

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PS

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PCF

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1999 Hunt, Fish, Nature, Traditions, and a Good Wine

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 03, 2008, 06:00:28 PM
One thing on the EU maps. Best not take the DOM results very seriously. For a variety of reasons.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Verily on August 03, 2008, 10:00:09 PM
What happened to the Greens in the Parisians suburbs between 1999 and 2004?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 04, 2008, 07:53:06 AM
What happened to the Greens in the Parisians suburbs between 1999 and 2004?

Cap21, which got 3.6%.

Just as Waechter's MEI list explains the lower than average Greenie results in the Est constituency.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 04, 2008, 08:41:17 AM
Other ecolo lists

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 07, 2008, 04:24:42 PM
Now for the fascists.

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and now for the lolz Party (http://video.yahoo.com/watch/196835/1658125)

()

That pretty much concludes the EU election maps for now. Any further requests for any maps?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 07, 2008, 04:30:19 PM
Random question; why do FN do so (relatively) well in what is, I think, the Garonne valley [qm]


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 07, 2008, 04:51:20 PM
Random question; why do FN do so (relatively) well in what is, I think, the Garonne valley [qm]

IIRC those regions have a bit less of a RadSoc tradition historically and the Lot-et-Garonne also has a strong Poujadist streak.

Also, the usual stuff (higher foreign population, higher unemployment) etc.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 09, 2008, 06:54:47 PM
% vote for Alain Madelin (DL), 2002

()

Funny how it's also a map of wealth in some areas.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 09, 2008, 07:11:14 PM
Do Hue v Madelin!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 09, 2008, 07:16:05 PM

Sure ;)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 10, 2008, 11:12:50 AM
% vote for Alain Madelin (DL), 2002

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Funny how it's also a map of wealth in some areas.

and now, the Garden Elf, Robert Hue.

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Amusing map. Quoted the Madelin map to compare the two. ;D


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 11, 2008, 06:48:48 PM
Taubira.

()

Amusing patterns.

I'll do a LePage and Mamere map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 11, 2008, 09:02:20 PM
Lepage

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Christmas Mymother

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 11, 2008, 10:06:33 PM
Taubira.

()

Amusing patterns.

I'll do a LePage and Mamere map.

I see the strong performance in the Third Republic Radical strongholds.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 12, 2008, 08:15:03 AM
Taubira.

()

Amusing patterns.

I'll do a LePage and Mamere map.

I see the strong performance in the Third Republic Radical strongholds.

She also got higher-than-usual votes for the PRG in the Paris 'burbs being the first black candidate and so forth.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: 2952-0-0 on August 12, 2008, 12:32:14 PM
On a tangent, Jean Marie Le Pen is selling the party's HQ mansion in Western Paris to...the Shanghai University.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7555861.stm

Fier d'être chinois?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 13, 2008, 09:27:57 AM
Christine Boutin

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: MaxQue on August 13, 2008, 11:55:15 AM

Is it the gay-hater with the Bible?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 25, 2008, 04:37:06 PM
*blows the ton of dust accumulated*

Unemployment map

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I have data by department by quarter going back to 1982, so I can make some earlier maps if anyone has a specific request.

BTW, if you ever happen to year the Viscount boast that Vendee has the lowest unemployment, it's obviously false.

I'll do some sort of election map soon, but I have no clue of what.

So, any requests for maps at this point?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 25, 2008, 07:39:43 PM
'69 Deferre, if it hasn't been done.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 25, 2008, 07:45:52 PM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 26, 2008, 12:07:14 AM
Ah.

The Duclos map makes me happy. Too bad Poher did so well. A Duclos v. Poher runoff would've been nice.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 26, 2008, 01:51:59 AM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


     Why did the Communist do so much better than the Socialist?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 26, 2008, 07:39:26 AM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


     Why did the Communist do so much better than the Socialist?

The SFIO was in an horrible state in 1969, which was just after the FGDS exploded in 1968. In addition, his centrist standing and his opposition to the 5th Republic didn't help either.

He lost lots of votes to Alain Poher and Duclos took like all Communist votes. Rocard didn't help much either.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 26, 2008, 11:46:35 AM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


     Why did the Communist do so much better than the Socialist?

The SFIO was in an horrible state in 1969, which was just after the FGDS exploded in 1968. In addition, his centrist standing and his opposition to the 5th Republic didn't help either.

He lost lots of votes to Alain Poher and Duclos took like all Communist votes. Rocard didn't help much either.

What was abstention like in each round?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 26, 2008, 03:28:33 PM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


     Why did the Communist do so much better than the Socialist?

The SFIO was in an horrible state in 1969, which was just after the FGDS exploded in 1968. In addition, his centrist standing and his opposition to the 5th Republic didn't help either.

He lost lots of votes to Alain Poher and Duclos took like all Communist votes. Rocard didn't help much either.

What was abstention like in each round?

Second lowest turnout in the first round after 2002 and lowest runoff turnout (68.85) in the runoff.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 26, 2008, 09:24:19 PM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


     Why did the Communist do so much better than the Socialist?

The SFIO was in an horrible state in 1969, which was just after the FGDS exploded in 1968. In addition, his centrist standing and his opposition to the 5th Republic didn't help either.

He lost lots of votes to Alain Poher and Duclos took like all Communist votes. Rocard didn't help much either.

What was abstention like in each round?

Second lowest turnout in the first round after 2002 and lowest runoff turnout (68.85) in the runoff.

I can understand the second round, but why the first?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 27, 2008, 06:53:03 AM
Departmental strength of major candidates in the first round of the 1969 Presidential elections

()

Larger version (http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/5410/france19691sttpa4ai3.png)


     Why did the Communist do so much better than the Socialist?

The SFIO was in an horrible state in 1969, which was just after the FGDS exploded in 1968. In addition, his centrist standing and his opposition to the 5th Republic didn't help either.

He lost lots of votes to Alain Poher and Duclos took like all Communist votes. Rocard didn't help much either.

What was abstention like in each round?

Second lowest turnout in the first round after 2002 and lowest runoff turnout (68.85) in the runoff.

I can understand the second round, but why the first?

Generally poor-to-mediocre candidates, lack of interest, and the election was the second in 1969 (after the referendum).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 27, 2008, 11:07:56 PM
So it felt like a legislative election in terms of voter fatigue?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 28, 2008, 07:11:49 AM
So it felt like a legislative election in terms of voter fatigue?

Good way of putting it.

One or two new maps tonight.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 28, 2008, 03:18:01 PM
I am excited.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 28, 2008, 04:39:51 PM
Workers of the World, rejoice!

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()

Analysis to be on my website sooner or later.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 29, 2008, 12:40:19 AM
     What was La Corse's turnout in the first turn in 1969 precisely?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 29, 2008, 06:48:26 AM
     What was La Corse's turnout in the first turn in 1969 precisely?

61.17%.

60.05% in the runoff.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 30, 2008, 12:57:05 AM
     What was La Corse's turnout in the first turn in 1969 precisely?

61.17%.

60.05% in the runoff.

     That's pathetic, considering every other department broke 70%.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 30, 2008, 07:07:04 AM
     What was La Corse's turnout in the first turn in 1969 precisely?

61.17%.

60.05% in the runoff.

     That's pathetic, considering every other department broke 70%.

Well, yes, it is. But Corse is not subject to normality.

1965 R1: 85.02% (F), 56.42% (C)
1965 R2: 84.53% (F), 61.28% (C)
1969 R1: 78.23% (F), 61.17% (C)
1969 R2: 69.03% (F), 60.05% (C)
1974 R1: 84.90% (F), 72.79% (C)
1974 R2: 87.92% (F), 80.26% (C)
1981 R1: 81.48% (F), 64.89% (C)
1981 R2: 86.23% (F), 73.31% (C)
1988 R1: 82.02% (F), 67.52% (C)
1988 R2: 84.64% (F), 76.48% (C)
1995 R1: 79.48% (F), 66.98% (C)
1995 R2: 80.44% (F), 75.04% (C)
2002 R1: 71.61% (F), 58.62% (C)
2002 R2: 79.71% (F), 67.78% (C)
2007 R1: 83.77% (F), 75.50% (C)
2007 R2: 83.97% (F), 78.58% (C)
Met France results from '65 to '95.

2004Reg1: 62.12% (F), 72.51% (C)
2004Reg2: 65.68% (F), 74.98% (C)

Basically Corse doesn't have an history of voting massively in national elections, mainly because the candidates aren't from Corse, don't care a whole lot about Corse, and because it doesn't concern their little business. They do, however, vote massively, in much higher numbers than Metro France in local elections (many cantons had 80-90ish turnout this year) to elect the local mafia boss mayor. Because locals concern them directly and they know all the candidates and local mayors have a massive GOTV effort for the locals, regionals, and legislative elections. And villages remember than the great-great-grandfather of the man running for deputy stole one of the local inhabitant's donkey in 1802. Or vice versa.

I posted this a while ago on Corse politics:

Quote
People in Corse vote based on person, not candidate. A Communist official could very well support the UMP candidate, and a UMP official could very well support the leftie candidate. Because the candidate is their cousin, or because they hate the candidate put up by their party.

Then, local villages are dominated by mayors who often make deals with the incumbent (in general elections). If the mayor drives everybody to the polls, then he gets funding. If he doesn't, then he gets 0 Euros. People vote based on what the mayor tells them, because he directly relates their vote for the incumbent to the installation of the street lamp in front of their house that hasn't been done in 25 years.

Apart from that, people vote because the incumbent is in their family, because he's nice, because he did this and that for them, because the great-grandfather of the incumbent (who was most likely a deputy in the 1800s for the same seat) did this and that and you need to pay back his great-grandson.
Or, you don't vote for them because the incumbent is from your rival clan, because his great-grandfather was mad with your great-grandfather, because they're not friends, because the mayor hates the incumbent and wants him to lose.

My contact in Haute-Corse told me about a local mayor and councilor who campaigned for the UMP candidate against the PRG incumbent Paul Giacobbi (who is the son of a Senator, who himself was the son of another Senator pre-war) in June 2007. In March 2008, he was re-elected and joined the PRG majority led by... Paul Giacobbi.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 02, 2008, 09:25:21 AM
EU maps!

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UDF orange, Greenies in... green, PCR in red

()

CPNT yellow

()

Rads in orange, MDC in yellow

()



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 02, 2008, 02:03:50 PM
European elections are weird.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 02, 2008, 02:58:30 PM

Understatement.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 11, 2008, 05:11:34 PM
Much appreciated.

Is there any particular reason for Fabius's strong showing in Aquitaine (Gironde, Landes, Pyrénées-Atlantiques) and Haute-Corse? It also seems that he did well in the Diagonale du vide.

During the 2006 primary inside the PS, Fabius was supported by the left wing of the party: Emmanuelli is from Landes and is very strong in Landes and Pyrénées Atlantiques.
Gironde's local organization ("fédération") was led by fabiusians (Anziani, Madrelle) for a long time. The same for Haute Corse.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 11, 2008, 05:15:46 PM
Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

Le Pen seems to do better in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne than in the other departments of Aquitaine.

It's also stretching it a bit to say he did "so well" in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne, Gironde-5 was very close (Chirac was only a few % behind). Saint-Josse and CPNT do well there too (14.7% in Gironde-5 in 2002). Gironde-11 was also close.

edit: The FN also had a seat(s) in Bordeaux until this year.

Le Pen always did well along the Garonne valley (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Tarn, but also Haute-Garonne), because of big or middle-size cities (Bordeaux, Agen, Marmande, Montauban, Toulouse, Castres) but also beacause of "rapatriés", "pieds-noirs", Europeans who went back in France when Algeria won its independence in 1962.
This is the electoral legacy if this French exodus....

IIRC, Tixier-Vignancour in 1965 did also well in these "départements". But it must be checked.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 11, 2008, 05:38:47 PM
Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

Le Pen seems to do better in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne than in the other departments of Aquitaine.

It's also stretching it a bit to say he did "so well" in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne, Gironde-5 was very close (Chirac was only a few % behind). Saint-Josse and CPNT do well there too (14.7% in Gironde-5 in 2002). Gironde-11 was also close.

edit: The FN also had a seat(s) in Bordeaux until this year.

Le Pen always did well along the Garonne valley (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Tarn, but also Haute-Garonne), because of big or middle-size cities (Bordeaux, Agen, Marmande, Montauban, Toulouse, Castres) but also beacause of "rapatriés", "pieds-noirs", Europeans who went back in France when Algeria won its independence in 1962.
This is the electoral legacy if this French exodus....

IIRC, Tixier-Vignancour in 1965 did also well in these "départements". But it must be checked.

Confirmed: Tixier Vignancour did very well there (in relative terms), up to Charente-Maritime BTW, like Le Pen 20 years later...

And in 1962, the "no" in the referendum on Evian agreements (which made Algeria an independent state) did very well also in the vallet Garonne (apart from the South East, old stronghold of the far right).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 11, 2008, 06:22:32 PM
Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

Le Pen seems to do better in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne than in the other departments of Aquitaine.

It's also stretching it a bit to say he did "so well" in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne, Gironde-5 was very close (Chirac was only a few % behind). Saint-Josse and CPNT do well there too (14.7% in Gironde-5 in 2002). Gironde-11 was also close.

edit: The FN also had a seat(s) in Bordeaux until this year.

Le Pen always did well along the Garonne valley (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, Tarn, but also Haute-Garonne), because of big or middle-size cities (Bordeaux, Agen, Marmande, Montauban, Toulouse, Castres) but also beacause of "rapatriés", "pieds-noirs", Europeans who went back in France when Algeria won its independence in 1962.
This is the electoral legacy if this French exodus....

IIRC, Tixier-Vignancour in 1965 did also well in these "départements". But it must be checked.

The Lot-et-Garonne atleast also has a Poujadist tradition IIRC.

I have a Poujadist map and the Tixier map on my website.

Confirmed: Tixier Vignancour did very well there (in relative terms), up to Charente-Maritime BTW, like Le Pen 20 years later...

And in 1962, the "no" in the referendum on Evian agreements (which made Algeria an independent state) did very well also in the vallet Garonne (apart from the South East, old stronghold of the far right).

Le Pen did well in Charente-Maritime in his first run and the FN did well till about '86 IIRC. Back then the FN vote was much lower in the quartiers populaires and with workers and more of a bourgeois-Royalist protest vote. A look at the evolution of the FN's base in Paris proper is very interesting. Should do a few maps on that.

BTW, any place where I could find departmental results for the Evian referendum?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 12, 2008, 04:26:28 AM

Confirmed: Tixier Vignancour did very well there (in relative terms), up to Charente-Maritime BTW, like Le Pen 20 years later...

And in 1962, the "no" in the referendum on Evian agreements (which made Algeria an independent state) did very well also in the vallet Garonne (apart from the South East, old stronghold of the far right).

Le Pen did well in Charente-Maritime in his first run and the FN did well till about '86 IIRC. Back then the FN vote was much lower in the quartiers populaires and with workers and more of a bourgeois-Royalist protest vote. A look at the evolution of the FN's base in Paris proper is very interesting. Should do a few maps on that.

BTW, any place where I could find departmental results for the Evian referendum?

Look at your personal messages on this site: I gave you one book where there is a map on 1962 referendum. But there aren't detailed numbers by department. I'll try to find them.

Le Pen's vote was never a bourgeois-royalist one. Sure, there was a small fringe of upgrade vote and a less small fringe of traditional catholic and military vote. But it wasn't a majority in FN's electorate.

In the beginning, it was more a "petit-bourgeois" and "boutiquier" one: small businesses in towns or small cities. The "Algérie française" vote was still pregnant (Le Pen himself is a mixture of Algérie française and Poujade, but more of the former; Mégret is closer to the real fascist model: European, elitist, technological).

During the 1990s, the blue-collars vote became more important.
But the "petit-bourbeois" vote, afraid of immigrants, has remained strong: see the inner North-East: Haute-Marne, Aube, Marne, Meuse, Jura, Doubs, where immigration is not very high (contrayr to Moselle, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Alsace,...) but where, in the end, the FN did better than in his traditional strongholds in the Mediterranean south.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 12, 2008, 07:47:14 AM

Confirmed: Tixier Vignancour did very well there (in relative terms), up to Charente-Maritime BTW, like Le Pen 20 years later...

And in 1962, the "no" in the referendum on Evian agreements (which made Algeria an independent state) did very well also in the vallet Garonne (apart from the South East, old stronghold of the far right).

Le Pen did well in Charente-Maritime in his first run and the FN did well till about '86 IIRC. Back then the FN vote was much lower in the quartiers populaires and with workers and more of a bourgeois-Royalist protest vote. A look at the evolution of the FN's base in Paris proper is very interesting. Should do a few maps on that.

BTW, any place where I could find departmental results for the Evian referendum?

Look at your personal messages on this site: I gave you one book where there is a map on 1962 referendum. But there aren't detailed numbers by department. I'll try to find them.

Le Pen's vote was never a bourgeois-royalist one. Sure, there was a small fringe of upgrade vote and a less small fringe of traditional catholic and military vote. But it wasn't a majority in FN's electorate.

In the beginning, it was more a "petit-bourgeois" and "boutiquier" one: small businesses in towns or small cities. The "Algérie française" vote was still pregnant (Le Pen himself is a mixture of Algérie française and Poujade, but more of the former; Mégret is closer to the real fascist model: European, elitist, technological).

During the 1990s, the blue-collars vote became more important.
But the "petit-bourbeois" vote, afraid of immigrants, has remained strong: see the internal North-East: Haute-Marne, Aube, Marne, Meuse, Jura, Doubs, where immigration is not very high (contrayr to Moselle, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Alsace,...) but where, in the end, the FN did better than in his traditional strongholds in the Mediterranean south.


In Paris atleast, there was a good part of the FN vote that came from the posh areas (16th, 17th). See this site (http://geoelections.free.fr/France/Paris/extrdte.htm). Granted, it wasn't very high as the FN didn't poll very high (something like 3-4% in those areas and below the 1% average in eastern Paris).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 12, 2008, 04:56:56 PM
Hashemite, I've just sent you, on your gmail and hotmail boxes, a pdf file with maps on the 1962 referendum on Evian agreements, with results by departments.

Hope it will be useful.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 12, 2008, 07:31:22 PM
Data courtesy of Filliatre. Thank him, not me.

1962 Presidential election ref

()

Evian accords ref

()

More stuff coming.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 13, 2008, 05:40:08 PM
()

()

()

()

Guess which party supported the 'yes' in May 1946.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 13, 2008, 05:44:58 PM
I've never actually seen the text of the May 1946 constitution. Does anybody have it?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 13, 2008, 05:59:15 PM
I've never actually seen the text of the May 1946 constitution. Does anybody have it?

http://mjp.univ-perp.fr/france/co1946p.htm


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 13, 2008, 06:02:37 PM
I've never actually seen the text of the May 1946 constitution. Does anybody have it?

http://mjp.univ-perp.fr/france/co1946p.htm

:)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 13, 2008, 09:19:39 PM
Strange map

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 14, 2008, 04:05:53 AM
A bit strange in comparison to the first 1946 referendum (just a map of the left of these days).
Sure, communist strongholds can be seen in this map.
But, the national average dilutes a bit this effect and Bretagne and Ile-de-France may have given MRP and radical voters to the "OUI" (but not the East).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 14, 2008, 10:23:06 AM
2007 runoff in Indre-et-Loire.

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 14, 2008, 12:50:09 PM
Any requests for 2007 runoff maps for any department?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Math on November 14, 2008, 02:01:03 PM
Any requests for 2007 runoff maps for any department?
Why not Maine-et-Loire ?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 14, 2008, 04:54:13 PM
Gironde would be fine.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 14, 2008, 05:15:06 PM
Sorry to drop another idea amid your 07 runoff series, but had you posted a map on Pierre Juquin, presidential election 1988, as communist candidate but outside the party ? Should be interesting for Atlasians.

He gathered more than usual marginal candidates.

But his map is weird: sort of PCF map but only the south !

Not at all a far-left map (LCR or LO: an arch of strongness from North-West to North to North-East).

Not at all a green map (from North-West to urban Ile-de-France plus the large centre-East, with Lyon, Alsace, Jura, the Alps and Dauphiné).

Juquin's map can't be compared with any other one. Really puzzling.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 14, 2008, 05:30:43 PM
Lemme finish Gironde.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 14, 2008, 05:34:57 PM
Sure, just a suggestion. Take ya time !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 14, 2008, 05:48:45 PM
Gironde

()

Loir-et-Cher

()

And now, Lozere. Al will like this map.

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 14, 2008, 06:07:38 PM
How Gironde has evolved ! Thanks for this intricated map.

Inner Gironde, more on the popular left in the past, is now appealed by Sarkozy'07.

On the other hand, more posh areas in Bordeaux itself, in the western suburbs of Bordeaux and in the southern Medoc (wines....) has voted for the left.

Blue-collar Sarkozy, "bobo" PS....


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 14, 2008, 06:23:23 PM
Hastily done, so not optimal, but whatever.

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2008, 10:17:08 AM
Maine-et-Loire.

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: afleitch on November 15, 2008, 11:47:05 AM
If you do a screengrab just before the Geoclip map fully loads, you can get a cleaner map to work with. But you have to be quick!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 15, 2008, 11:55:45 AM
Gironde, 1st round?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2008, 01:16:39 PM

I won't do first round maps because Geoclip doesn't have a map of the winner of the first round by commune and I'd need to go commune-by-commune on the MoI site. Gah.

If you do a screengrab just before the Geoclip map fully loads, you can get a cleaner map to work with. But you have to be quick!

I actually prefer the messy map with the fat borders :P


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2008, 04:40:53 PM
2007 vs. 1995 (2002 isn't a real election).

Swing (Atlas definition of swing, not the Brit one o/c)

()

Trend

()

I'm tempted to do some 1974 vs. 2007.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 15, 2008, 04:47:40 PM
Very interesting.
2 points: Sarkozy of course grabbed the FN vote. And Chirac has disappeared: it explains Correze and all the Massif Central (especially western Massif Central)'s swing.

I think a 1969 vs 1995 would be fine: Pompidou-Chirac vs something else...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2008, 05:03:24 PM
I think a 1969 vs 1995 would be fine: Pompidou-Chirac vs something else...

1969 is especially hard to do because of the absence of a leftie (like 2002).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2008, 05:22:53 PM
74-07 swing!

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 15, 2008, 05:39:26 PM
OMG, Ille-et-Vilaine in the last (or first...) rank !

But not very different from 1995-2007.

For 1969-1995, just take Poher as the "left" candidate. I think we'd be surprised...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2008, 06:09:19 PM
Just compiled a 69-95 comparison. Not much use in doing a map as all departments
"swung" to the "left" except:

Alpes-Maritimes 27.68%
Bouches-du-Rhone 3.12%
Drome 4.34%
Gers 12.20%
Indre 0.74%
Loir-et-Cher 7.46%
Lot-et-Garonne 8.40%
Orne 5.46%
Rhone 1.88%
Haute-Savoie 9.04%
Paris 3.58%
Yvelines 3.12%
Var 12.88%
Vaucluse 22.98%


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 16, 2008, 04:18:28 PM
The swing's level would be interesting, not just the colour.
But, anyway, I'm not here to decide what you have to do. It's your thread !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 16, 2008, 07:21:26 PM
Just compiled a 69-95 comparison. Not much use in doing a map as all departments "swung" to the "left" except:

Alpes-Maritimes 27.68%
Bouches-du-Rhone 3.12%
Drome 4.34%
Gers 12.20%
Indre 0.74%
Loir-et-Cher 7.46%
Lot-et-Garonne 8.40%
Orne 5.46%
Rhone 1.88%
Haute-Savoie 9.04%
Paris 3.58%
Yvelines 3.12%
Var 12.88%
Vaucluse 22.98%

     Wouldn't it be surprising if that weren't the case, considering the strength of Pompidou's performance? Or am I off-track here?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 17, 2008, 05:24:58 PM
Just compiled a 69-95 comparison. Not much use in doing a map as all departments "swung" to the "left" except:

Alpes-Maritimes 27.68%
Bouches-du-Rhone 3.12%
Drome 4.34%
Gers 12.20%
Indre 0.74%
Loir-et-Cher 7.46%
Lot-et-Garonne 8.40%
Orne 5.46%
Rhone 1.88%
Haute-Savoie 9.04%
Paris 3.58%
Yvelines 3.12%
Var 12.88%
Vaucluse 22.98%

     Wouldn't it be surprising if that weren't the case, considering the strength of Pompidou's performance? Or am I off-track here?

There was no leftist candidate in the second round.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 17, 2008, 05:30:05 PM
Xahar, please read some posts before: Poher would be the "other", as Jospin was in 1995.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 17, 2008, 05:31:10 PM
Useless fact from the 1969-1995 comparison. There was no swing in the Aude. Poher and Jospin got the exact same.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 17, 2008, 06:05:46 PM
Useless fact from the 1969-1995 comparison. There was no swing in the Aude. Poher and Jospin got the exact same.

That was, indeed, my point: Pompidou and Chirac had similar maps and Poher was, de facto, the left candidate. Many left voters in fact voted for him, even with "political disgust".

I precisely wanted to say that "la Chiraquie" et "la Pompidolie" were very similar.
Chirac has won only one "normal" election: 1995.
He lost a normal one in 1988, but it was still a seventies-eighties left-right map.

Pompidou ran only one presidential election.

Hence a comparison 1969-1995.

But forget it...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2008, 04:34:15 PM
()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 18, 2008, 04:39:08 PM
You can see where Pompidou's personal vote was strongest, can'st thou. Chirac too, but to a latter extent. The decline of the old Catholic-Anti Clerical divide is there as well.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2008, 04:45:10 PM
You can see where Pompidou's personal vote was strongest, can'st thou. Chirac too, but to a latter extent. The decline of the old Catholic-Anti Clerical divide is there as well.

Pompidou got over 80% in Cantal, btw.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 18, 2008, 04:46:42 PM
You can see where Pompidou's personal vote was strongest, can'st thou. Chirac too, but to a latter extent. The decline of the old Catholic-Anti Clerical divide is there as well.

Pompidou got over 80% in Cantal, btw.

I think that deserves a "lol".


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 18, 2008, 04:47:34 PM
Btw, do you have figures for past Presidential elections by department [qm]. It'd be really nice if they were written up online somewhere.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2008, 04:53:05 PM
Btw, do you have figures for past Presidential elections by department [qm]. It'd be really nice if they were written up online somewhere.

The CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AfficheElec.php), though I'd be careful with the old constituency data in there.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 18, 2008, 05:07:51 PM
Btw, do you have figures for past Presidential elections by department [qm]. It'd be really nice if they were written up online somewhere.

The CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AfficheElec.php), though I'd be careful with the old constituency data in there.

Diolch!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 18, 2008, 07:40:34 PM
Xahar, please read some posts before: Poher would be the "other", as Jospin was in 1995.

But the Communists stayed home in 1969, which is why there is such a large discrepancy.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2008, 07:49:24 PM
Xahar, please read some posts before: Poher would be the "other", as Jospin was in 1995.

But the Communists stayed home in 1969, which is why there is such a large discrepancy.

()

Around 65-70ish stayed home.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 19, 2008, 07:21:40 AM
You can see where Pompidou's personal vote was strongest, can'st thou. Chirac too, but to a latter extent. The decline of the old Catholic-Anti Clerical divide is there as well.

Pompidou got over 80% in Cantal, btw.

I think that deserves a "lol".

It shows that even if it was Poher against him, Pompidou was THE candidate on whom voters decide, for or against him.

The electoral map of 1969 was a "gaulliste-pompidolienne", i.e. it was made of De Gaulle strongholds (former occupied France during WW2) and of "la Pompidolie" in the Massif Central (similar to "la Chiraquie").

Poher should have been stronger than that in the North West and the North East, in old MRP strongholds, but he wasn't indeed the centrist candidate, he was just the "other" candidate and gathered socialist, radical and even some communist voters.

As Chirac was the "other" candidate in 2002: the electoral map is a FN one.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 23, 2008, 02:25:20 PM
Requests? I'm quite bored now.

Thinking of doing a PS 1993 map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Math on November 23, 2008, 03:40:35 PM

Definitely a good idea. At this point, 1993 seems to be a nice year for the French Socialists.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 23, 2008, 04:52:23 PM

Definitely a good idea. At this point, 1993 seems to be a nice year for the French Socialists.
LOL


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 03, 2008, 07:06:24 PM

Meant to comment on this at the time it was posted. Voting patterns in Lozere are hilarious.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 03, 2008, 07:10:36 PM

Meant to comment on this at the time it was posted. Voting patterns in Lozere are hilarious.

Very, very old political divide, too.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 03, 2008, 07:11:11 PM

Meant to comment on this at the time it was posted. Voting patterns in Lozere are hilarious.

Very, very old political divide, too.

At least they aren't killing each other anymore!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2008, 06:13:13 PM
()

()

()

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 11, 2008, 07:06:07 PM
Have you got data for 1848?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2008, 07:06:59 PM

There was no referendum in 1848.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 11, 2008, 07:09:22 PM
I know...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2008, 07:14:50 PM

Data for the Constituent Assembly? The National Assembly has information on the actual MPs.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 11, 2008, 07:31:18 PM
Presidential election.

But legislative would be nice, as would a MoDem map for the 2007 legislatives.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2008, 07:33:08 PM
% vote MoDem in the first round, 2007 legislative election

% vote, UDF-MoDem candidates

()




Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2008, 07:34:07 PM

I personally don't. IIRC Cavaignac won 13, 83, 56, and 29.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 11, 2008, 07:41:47 PM

OK.

MoDem, runoff?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2008, 07:46:24 PM

Would be totally useless and a waste of time.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 11, 2008, 07:55:13 PM
:(


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on December 12, 2008, 08:11:02 AM
Some comments on latest historical maps from Hashemite:

- Rocard 1969 is very interesting, as these national and old results (a quite lefty Rocard at the time) would remain similar to his results inside the PS (from 1979 to the 1990s):

strongholds in Bretagne  (Louis Le Pensec...), Loire-Atlantique (Claude Evin...) and Anjou (Monnier, former mayor of Angiers), Franche-Comté, Isère and Grenoble (Hubert Dubedout, former mayor, was a mendésiste and a hero for pragmatic local socialism), Western Ile-de-France (Rocard was elected in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, Yvelines), even Gers.

- Lecanuet 1965 is a very unsurprising one: centrist map + Rouen (Lecanuet's city).
Remember Lecanuet was the first main candidate to know how to use television. Some in France called him a French Kennedy. It was 43 years ago...

- In 1870 plebiscite map, you can already read the first socialist maps of the twentieth century (before the Tours Congress in 1920).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 12, 2008, 08:23:15 AM
strongholds in Bretagne  (Louis Le Pensec...),

And Yves Le Foll o/c.

- Lecanuet 1965 is a very unsurprising one: centrist map + Rouen (Lecanuet's city).
Remember Lecanuet was the first main candidate to know how to use television. Some in France called him a French Kennedy. It was 43 years ago...

I'll take a look at constituency results in the 76 if I find them and they're accurate.

- In 1870 plebiscite map, you can already read the first socialist maps of the twentieth century (before the Tours Congress in 1920).

A few other things on that. Apart from urban republicans who hated him (the original opposition to him) plus some conservative (meaning royalist) Catholic areas (Breton west, Gironde, parts of the rural east), industrial areas out east and some leftie rurals.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on December 14, 2008, 05:36:55 PM
- In 1870 plebiscite map, you can already read the first socialist maps of the twentieth century (before the Tours Congress in 1920).

A few other things on that. Apart from urban republicans who hated him (the original opposition to him) plus some conservative (meaning royalist) Catholic areas (Breton west, Gironde, parts of the rural east), industrial areas out east and some leftie rurals.



You're right, but my point was to say that, in a nutshell, what you can stare at a glance is the left map of the early 20th century.

You're right except for Loire-Atlantique and Gironde: it's more an influence of urban vote (anti-"order") and industrial areas along Loire and Gironde "estuaires", than any Cahtolic vote (especially in Gironde; truer in rural Loire-Atlantique of course).

Difficult to have those old maps. I've just checked in an old "Larousse encyclopédique en 12 volumes" published in 1958, but nothing on electoral geography... What a pity !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 27, 2008, 03:25:41 PM
Boredom is an awful thing, and so is wireless intermittent Interwebs.

So, I did some uniform swing maps for 2007 showing a few scenarios:

67% Sarkozy

()

55% Sarkozy

()

50%-50% tie

()b

53% Royal

()

55% Royal

()

Errors possible. Note that I didn't do the Overseas map on the 55-45 Royal map, so it's wrong.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on December 28, 2008, 05:33:04 PM
Very interesting.

The tie map is revealing: Sarkozy is Le Pen plus remnants of the 70s right (Cantal-Lozère-Haute Loire and the string between Manche and Vendée).

The 55% map for Royal (OMG...) is also interesting: Oise, Eure-et-Loir  and Vaucluse still for Sarkozy, but not Seine-et-Marne, Meuse, Vendée or even Hauts-de-Seine... How the right has changed...

I'm a bit surprised by Hauts-de-Seine for Royal if she wins 53% nationally (but haven't checked anything...).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 28, 2008, 05:44:22 PM
I'm a bit surprised by Hauts-de-Seine for Royal if she wins 53% nationally (but haven't checked anything...).

Narrowly wins with around 50.4%


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 03, 2009, 10:01:35 AM
This map is fascinating in a number of ways, not just because CPNT is a cool party, but it's also a cool demographic guide.

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 04, 2009, 01:03:06 PM
2007 runoff maps, again.

Marne

()

Ardennes

()

Charente-Maritime

()

Mayenne and Sarthe

()

Currently working on the Deux-Sevres.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on January 04, 2009, 04:13:57 PM
This map is fascinating in a number of ways, not just because CPNT is a cool party, but it's also a cool demographic guide.

A map of French forests, bays, muds and "young" mountains:
Landes-Médoc, Sologne, Saintonge, Cévennes, Quercy, Queyras, Mercantour,
Somme, pays de Retz, Isigny-Manche
Pyrenees, Alps, Corsica.

More a hunting map than anything else.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 04, 2009, 05:28:34 PM
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Important favourite daughter vote in there.

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Epic fail. Sarkozy won Fos-sur-Mer (albeit narrowly, he still won Fos-sur-Mer)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 05, 2009, 07:32:43 PM
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Still taking requests.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 05, 2009, 08:22:15 PM

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Epic fail.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on January 06, 2009, 04:07:02 AM
You've posted Finistère, which is very interesting with the "pays léonard" and the "presqu'île de Crozon" heavily and homogeneously on the right, but many rural parts on the left, in addition to urban areas around Brest and Quimper.

You request requests, so.... what about Aveyron and Dordogne (Périgord): they may be interesting with 4 or 5 different local areas in each one ?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 06, 2009, 04:20:49 PM
You've posted Finistère, which is very interesting with the "pays léonard" and the "presqu'île de Crozon" heavily and homogeneously on the right, but many rural parts on the left, in addition to urban areas around Brest and Quimper.

The west of Léon is right-wing (and has been right-wing for a long time). Crozon is generally wealthy and has quite a high number of secondary residences.

You request requests, so.... what about Aveyron and Dordogne (Périgord): they may be interesting with 4 or 5 different local areas in each one ?

Both were already on my to-do list :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 06, 2009, 08:15:09 PM
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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on January 07, 2009, 10:56:49 AM
Dordogne is a very puzzling one for me: how the SW of this département can be more left-wing than the Périgord noir around Sarlat, which is richest and more conservative ?

A bit like in Gironde, it seems as if it was blue-collar and suburban Sarkozy against "bobo" Royal....

Aveyron is divided along its traditional lines: old mining region and cities for the left, rural north and center for the right.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on January 09, 2009, 05:27:03 PM
What are those uber-left places?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 09, 2009, 07:32:45 PM

I checked some census states for Saorge (Alpes-Maritimes) and Trigance (Var), and there seems to be nothing that unusual compared to the surroundings. Small villages, relatively mountainous and isolated. Apparently, during the Second World War, the Germans moved a lot of Saorge's population to other cities, such as Turin or Cannes. There is, however, 60% of secondary residences in Saorge and nearly 50% in Trigance.

Saorge was the best commune for the anti-liberal left in 2007, with the various Commie and Trot candidates taking 24% all together. It doesn't seem to be an error in either case.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 09, 2009, 08:54:55 PM
Map update, including one epic map. All quite interesting, of course, but the patterns are the one to be expected.

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Epic map:

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on January 10, 2009, 07:42:27 AM
Talk about a "red belt"!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2009, 07:48:55 AM

The old mining belt, of course.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on January 10, 2009, 07:56:12 AM

I checked some census states for Saorge (Alpes-Maritimes) and Trigance (Var), and there seems to be nothing that unusual compared to the surroundings. Small villages, relatively mountainous and isolated.

Saorge seems to be quite the looker...

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No car access to the built-up area, btw. There's a parking lot underneath the town. ;D

Also, while rural France did of course bleed population back then, this figure needs an explanation really:

1968    1975
508    330


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2009, 08:11:56 AM
Seems like Saorge was quite an important city during the Second Empire, though.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on January 10, 2009, 08:17:53 AM
It's on an ancient road across the Alps that was superceded when they built a new, better one further south.
Oh, and Fontan was created from part of Saorge in 1872, explaining the steep drop.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2009, 08:07:20 PM
3 more maps now.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 11, 2009, 11:02:08 AM
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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 13, 2009, 07:41:36 PM
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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 14, 2009, 05:53:28 PM
Even more maps!

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 15, 2009, 08:12:20 AM
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Alpes-de-Haute-Provence.png)

Hautes-Alpes (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Hautes-Alpes.png)

Correze (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Correze.png)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on January 15, 2009, 11:13:14 AM
Loire Atlantique is quite clear geographically: pays de Retz, Guérandais and rural north and east vs Nantes and greater Nantes.

Calvados is really changing: Caen suburbs are now deep in the south...

Correze is shocking: so red for former Chirac's stronghold...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 15, 2009, 04:00:09 PM
Loire Atlantique is quite clear geographically: pays de Retz, Guérandais and rural north and east vs Nantes and greater Nantes.

Nantes, Greater Nantes, Saint-Nazaire, Redon suburbia for the left vs. the wealthy coastal areas, rural areas, Retz for the right.


Correze is shocking: so red for former Chirac's stronghold...

Returning to historical roots, I guess.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2009, 09:58:31 AM
Taking a break from the departmental maps for a bit.

Bove

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Besancenot

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 25, 2009, 03:34:01 PM
Local election maps (cantonal)

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Val-de-Marne is so polarized. Even in 1993, the blue wave was limited.

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Rural communism. Allier is a stronghold of rural communism.

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The PCF is really now limited to its historical Marseille suburban industrial strongholds. I think they lost their last councillor in Marseille proper last year.

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Don't know much about this one, but I'd love to know more. Cayenne is leftie, while the Amazonian parts are rightie.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 25, 2009, 04:54:30 PM
Interesting to see that the PCF still have some strength in the suburbs of Marseille. I suppose a lot of their old vote in the city lives out there now.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 29, 2009, 08:20:18 AM
Rejoice. The communal maps have returned.

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The Creuse and Puy-de-Dome should be up tonight.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 29, 2009, 05:52:33 PM
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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 30, 2009, 10:28:35 PM
Nobody seems to care, but I've done 3 interesting departments (and I hope to have two biggies up by tomorrow)...

I read the article on the crazy UMP deputy from Moselle who killed his mistress last year, so I was inspired to do this map.

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The Rhone

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The Loire

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 01, 2009, 08:17:27 AM
Some biggies now.

Meurthe-et-Moselle

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Haute-Garonne

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Drome

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Ardeche

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2009, 08:24:13 AM
I read the article on the crazy UMP deputy from Moselle who killed his mistress last year, so I was inspired to do this map.

Details!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 01, 2009, 08:48:20 AM
I read the article on the crazy UMP deputy from Moselle who killed his mistress last year, so I was inspired to do this map.

Details!

Jean-Marie Demange was deputy for Thionville and mayor of Thionville from 1995 to 2008. He got depressed after losing to the PS in 2008, he got into violent arguments with his mistress (who left him after a while). In November last year, he went to her apartment, dragged her out on the balcony (in broad daylight) and killed her before committing suicide. A lot of people saw both incidents.

Imagine seeing your MP murdering someone in public.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on February 01, 2009, 09:18:49 AM
I read the article on the crazy UMP deputy from Moselle who killed his mistress last year, so I was inspired to do this map.

Details!

Jean-Marie Demange was deputy for Thionville and mayor of Thionville from 1995 to 2008. He got depressed after losing to the PS in 2008, he got into violent arguments with his mistress (who left him after a while). In November last year, he went to her apartment, dragged her out on the balcony (in broad daylight) and killed her before committing suicide. A lot of people saw both incidents.

Imagine seeing your MP murdering someone in public.
Meh. I'd have much less difficulty imagining that if I lived a couple of hundred meters further south or east. (This isn't about their politics so much - though my MP is SPD and the other is CDU, both are from unacceptable wings within these parties. It's... just... you know... the notion of that jovial fatso Amann killing people is downright bizarre. The notion of Steinbach killing people, presumably Polish or Czech Communists, is an entirely natural one - I'm almost inclined to say that that's exactly what she'd be doing all day if she thought she'd get away with it.)

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 01, 2009, 09:35:15 AM
I also have a hard time seeing my MP (http://www.mauril.ca/2008/_images/img_header.jpg) killing somebody.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2009, 11:15:48 AM
Mine doesn't really look the type either;
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Now, Vroom-vroom down the road might.

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Pity that no photo of him being angry is on the internets.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on February 01, 2009, 11:24:47 AM
Now, Vroom-vroom down the road might.
Why are they calling him that? Just because they can't pronounce his name?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2009, 11:32:57 AM
Now, Vroom-vroom down the road might.
Why are they calling him that? Just because they can't pronounce his name?

Because he was caught going at 101mph down a road near Dolgellau.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2009, 06:50:07 PM
Btw, it's fascinating to see how little voting patterns in the Ardeche have changed since the Third Republic. Left seems to be stronger in the SW now than back then, but that's close to being the only difference.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 01, 2009, 08:25:52 PM
Btw, it's fascinating to see how little voting patterns in the Ardeche have changed since the Third Republic. Left seems to be stronger in the SW now than back then, but that's close to being the only difference.

The left has built up a bit of strength up north (2nd constituency), a traditionally right-wing country. The PRG won it in 1997, and the PS won in it in 2007. Ironically, the UMP holds only one seat, the 3rd constituency, which includes the red lands of the southwest (the Cevennes).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 01, 2009, 08:28:52 PM
Tomorrow I'll copy something to do with the Ardeche that you might find interesting; it's in an old book on electoral geography.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 01, 2009, 08:29:54 PM
Tomorrow I'll copy something to do with the Ardeche that you might find interesting; it's in an old book on electoral geography.

Sure ;). Thanks!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on February 02, 2009, 06:34:55 AM
Btw, it's fascinating to see how little voting patterns in the Ardeche have changed since the Third Republic. Left seems to be stronger in the SW now than back then, but that's close to being the only difference.

The left has built up a bit of strength up north (2nd constituency), a traditionally right-wing country. The PRG won it in 1997, and the PS won in it in 2007. Ironically, the UMP holds only one seat, the 3rd constituency, which includes the red lands of the southwest (the Cevennes).

North of Ardèche is now a far suburb of Lyons-Vienne-Saint-Etienne metropolis (even the valley of Rhône between Lyons and Valence is almost one unique metropolis).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 02, 2009, 07:54:51 AM
Btw, it's fascinating to see how little voting patterns in the Ardeche have changed since the Third Republic. Left seems to be stronger in the SW now than back then, but that's close to being the only difference.

The left has built up a bit of strength up north (2nd constituency), a traditionally right-wing country. The PRG won it in 1997, and the PS won in it in 2007. Ironically, the UMP holds only one seat, the 3rd constituency, which includes the red lands of the southwest (the Cevennes).

North of Ardèche is now a far suburb of Lyons-Vienne-Saint-Etienne metropolis (even the valley of Rhône between Lyons and Valence is almost one unique metropolis).

True. But to be fair, the PS won partly based on the divisions on the right. The combined right + FN has enough votes to win theoretically. It's just that the DVD candidate who polled 18% IIRC didn't transfer perfectly to the UMP. That's not even counting the MoDem.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 02, 2009, 06:50:03 PM
Here it is. A copy of a copy. But fun anyway:

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 02, 2009, 07:08:26 PM
Interesting stuff. Especially interesting that, according to that book, the Ardeche Cevennes were "variable" back then. Does the book have anything on Lozere and Gard, especially the Cevennes there?

On a related topic, I fell across this map.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 02, 2009, 07:24:40 PM
Interesting stuff. Especially interesting that, according to that book, the Ardeche Cevennes were "variable" back then. Does the book have anything on Lozere and Gard, especially the Cevennes there?

No; the set was based on Siegfried's stuff on the Ardeche so that's all they had.

Quote
On a related topic, I fell across this map.

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Ah, so that's why that little blob in the northwest is (still!) lefty.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2009, 08:29:57 PM
A cantonal government map for my second-favourite region.

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The UMP has an overall majority in the Bas-Rhin general council, with 30 seats. The PS has 7 seats, and there are 3 DVD councillors. 3 of the 4 MoDem councillors sit with the UMP majority, and one (a former independent ecologist) sits with the opposition. All 7 Socialists are elected in the city of Strasbourg, where they hold a majority of the seats. Since 1994, where they held only Strasbourg-9, a poor canton including a large number of Strasbourg’s ZUS (Zone urbaine sensible: inner city area with high unemployment and so forth), they have made important gains in richer downtown Strasbourg, a trend also seen nationally. The PS is becoming more and more popular in downtown wealthy areas. Ironically, the PS does not hold Strasbourg-10, the large canton in the southeast of the city, which includes industrial areas along the Rhine as well as a ZUS. The current Modem councillor was elected in 2004 defeating the FN (Strasbourg-10 is an ideal setting for the FN). If the PS had made the runoff, they could have won. There is some left-wing strength in some suburbs of Strasbourg, such as Schiltigheim and Illkirch-Graffenstaden. Alfred Muller, PS then MDA (a local centre-left GM-like personalist party) Mayor of Schiltigheim held the canton of Schiltigheim until he was defeated by an independent ecologist in 2004. The UMP has huge majorities in the wealthy western suburban cantons. In rural areas, the UMP wins most elections by the first round.

The Haut-Rhin, more industrialized and slightly poorer than the Bas-Rhin, is more left-wing in its general orientation, even though it is still heavily left-leaning. In addition, contrarily to the Bas-Rhin, the Christian democrats’ decline in the department is not a recent event. More industrial, it was an early base of Gaullism. In fact, the UNR held the general council from 1958 to 1973, when the centrist Jean-Jacques Weber took over and held it until 1998. Lastly, the FN is strong in urban and industrial areas in the Haut-Rhin, while it is stronger in rural areas in the Bas-Rhin. Currently, there are 10 UMP councillors, 9 DVD, 6 PS, 4 DVG, 2 Greenies, and 1 far-right regionalist (Alsace d’Abord). The Socialists are strong in Mulhouse, which is much poorer than Strasbourg and has an important number of quartiers populaires (poorer and disadvantaged inner city areas). The PS holds the Nord and Ouest cantons. The FN often comes second in Mulhouse-Nord, and they won it in a by-election in 1995. The right holds the two other cantons, Est and Sud. IIRC, Mulhouse-Est includes wealthier downtown areas, and Mulhouse-Sud includes very wealthy suburbs. The fomer potash minining areas northwest of Mulhouse and the working-class city of Cernay are quite left-wing. The PS also holds Neuf-Brisach, which I know little about except that it’s major city, Neuf-Brisach, was built by Vauban and includes the harbour of Colmar. The Greenies hold two marginal cantons: Colmar-Sud, quite wealthy, which they narrowly won from Colmar’s quasi-perpetual election loser, Roland Wagner in 2008. The Greenies can thank the right’s divisions for their lucky win in Kayersberg, Alsatian wine country, in 2004. They won with only 31% in a four-way runoff which pitted the eventual Greenie winner with a UDF candidate, an Indie, and a DVD. The far-right regionalist Alsace d’Abord hold Sainte-Marie-aux-Mines, which they won with 34% in a three-way in 2004. Amusingly, the vote there split 34-33-32.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 16, 2009, 05:15:46 PM
I fixed a few errors on my 1988 map

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And made a DOMTOM map.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 21, 2009, 07:59:01 PM
Michel Crepeau, MRG. Mayor of La Rochelle for quite a long time, and also MP for the La Rochelle constituency. He polled around 2%, and won 11% in Charente-Maritime. Over 17% in his constituency. His favourite son showing in Charente-Maritime extended into other neighboring departments, even the ones that didn't have a traditional RadSoc tradition (I'm looking at you Vendee. Although Fontenay, where Crepeau was born, has quite a long RadSoc tradition).

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Michel Debre, de Gaulle's first Prime Minister. By 1981, however, he had gone a bit cuckoo. Polled around 1.5% nationally. Despite representing Réunion from 1962 to 1988, his home department was Indre-et-Loire, where he polled 4%. For obvious reasons, I'm far from a fan.

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Marie-France Garaud, originally close to Chirac, she split from the RPR and ran as true Gaullist of some sort. Later, she was an RPF MEP. Polled around 1.3% nationally. Her home department was the Vienne.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 22, 2009, 06:12:16 AM
() (http://img12.imageshack.us/my.php?image=congrsdereimsx.png)

Two maps showing the PS Reims Congres results.

The first is a map of the motions vote ( yellow=A, red=C, green=D, blue=E ).
The second map shows the results of the 2nd turn of the first-secretary election ( green=Aubry, blue=Royal, dark colours=more than 75% )

Ops...

How could I increase image's size ?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 22, 2009, 06:40:37 AM
Debre was always a bit cuckoo...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2009, 07:01:34 AM

More so later on.

() (http://img12.imageshack.us/my.php?image=congrsdereimsx.png)

Two maps showing the PS Reims Congres results.

The first is a map of the motions vote ( yellow=A, red=C, green=D, blue=E ).
The second map shows the results of the 2nd turn of the first-secretary election ( green=Aubry, blue=Royal, dark colours=more than 75% )

Ops...

How could I increase image's size ?

Have a look at the previous pages of this thread (or is the Reims Congress page?) and there are some similar maps I made.

You might find them interesting.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on February 23, 2009, 05:04:03 AM
Crépeau's map is a regional one+traditional RadSoc one (Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Eure-et-Loir among others).

Debré's one is partly a Royer's map and partly old traditional right map (Jura, Haute-Savoie, Aube). The gaullist influence is very light, only visible in Gironde, Dordogne, left departements at the time.

Garaud's one is difficult because of a nationally low score. But I would say that, apart from her regional "stronghold" in Poitou and Touraine, it's a nationalist map, i.e. a map similar to first FN maps of the 80s.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2009, 08:15:26 AM
Crépeau's map is a regional one+traditional RadSoc one (Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Eure-et-Loir among others).

Corse is a bit weird, especially Haute-Corse.

Garaud's one is difficult because of a nationally low score. But I would say that, apart from her regional "stronghold" in Poitou and Touraine, it's a nationalist map, i.e. a map similar to first FN maps of the 80s.

You think that map is hard to analyze? I made a Renouvin map a while ago ;D


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2009, 10:13:39 AM

Yes, that's certainly better than my map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 23, 2009, 10:39:38 AM
Re; Alsace, I'm surprised at how many leftish cantons there are up in the Vosges. Always assumed that that area was quite right-wing.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: PGSable on February 23, 2009, 12:39:09 PM
Did the PS ever release the results for the first round of the first secretary election (Royal v. Aubry v. Hamon)?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2009, 02:08:45 PM
I didn't find it, but maybe I didn't search enough.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2009, 04:02:04 PM
Did the PS ever release the results for the first round of the first secretary election (Royal v. Aubry v. Hamon)?

I don't think they did. Probably too busy in their little civil war.

Re; Alsace, I'm surprised at how many leftish cantons there are up in the Vosges. Always assumed that that area was quite right-wing.

Until recently, a large part of the areas northwest of Mulhouse were potash mining areas. And Cernay is a largely working-class city.

Do note that some of those I classified as DVG were classified as Independents upon their election but get classified DVG since they caucus with the opposition. Saint-Amarin for example.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on February 24, 2009, 03:11:52 AM
Crépeau's map is a regional one+traditional RadSoc one (Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Eure-et-Loir among others).

Corse is a bit weird, especially Haute-Corse.

Garaud's one is difficult because of a nationally low score. But I would say that, apart from her regional "stronghold" in Poitou and Touraine, it's a nationalist map, i.e. a map similar to first FN maps of the 80s.

You think that map is hard to analyze? I made a Renouvin map a while ago ;D

Yeah... But Renouvin is a real real joke (not a real royalist), whereas Garaud is only a real joke... (I mean, by 1981; now she is a real real joke)
:))


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on February 24, 2009, 03:25:34 AM
Did the PS ever release the results for the first round of the first secretary election (Royal v. Aubry v. Hamon)?
Unfortunately not. It's difficult to find something perfect in political science...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2009, 07:41:18 AM
Crépeau's map is a regional one+traditional RadSoc one (Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Eure-et-Loir among others).

Corse is a bit weird, especially Haute-Corse.

Garaud's one is difficult because of a nationally low score. But I would say that, apart from her regional "stronghold" in Poitou and Touraine, it's a nationalist map, i.e. a map similar to first FN maps of the 80s.

You think that map is hard to analyze? I made a Renouvin map a while ago ;D

Yeah... But Renouvin is a real real joke (not a real royalist), whereas Garaud is only a real joke... (I mean, by 1981; now she is a real real joke)
:))

Renouvin's campaign video makes my history teacher seem interesting and engaging. Listen to his campaign video ;D if you don't fall asleep :).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 01, 2009, 12:43:21 PM
Bumpity. Any requests?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 01, 2009, 12:45:19 PM
Anyways. I was lucky enough to fall on an old RFSP article that had a map of the 1962 election by constituency. And I had a 1958 constituency map. So...

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Math on March 01, 2009, 12:57:20 PM

Since there is no appropriate thread may I ask you if you could draw a Green map for the last communal, legislative and european elections in Luxembourg ?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 02, 2009, 08:17:51 PM
The '62 map is fascinating. Like a different world in some ways, very familar in others. Can you do zoom-ins for the big cities?

(and obviously more maps like that for other years would be great, but I'm not going to pushy. I've done that sort of thing myself and know how long they can take).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 02, 2009, 08:46:05 PM
The '62 map is fascinating. Like a different world in some ways, very familar in others. Can you do zoom-ins for the big cities?

(and obviously more maps like that for other years would be great, but I'm not going to pushy. I've done that sort of thing myself and know how long they can take).

The base map doesn't have an inset for urban areas, sadly.

I'll try to do more maps but in a lot of departments, I don't know which constituency is which.

I might do 1967 if I find data I can work with.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on March 04, 2009, 04:03:37 AM
I'm going to try to find a map with constituency numbers for you and with zoomings on big cities (constituency boundaries are the same from 62 to 81, IIRC).

As for 1967, 1968 and so on, I'm afraid I've got only detailed datas on paper: if I can find some time, I may give you a "short" list with parties affiliation only. Please let me know which parliamentary elections are missing in your files.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2009, 08:11:59 AM
I'm going to try to find a map with constituency numbers for you and with zoomings on big cities (constituency boundaries are the same from 62 to 81, IIRC).

Trugarez! That would be appreciated.

As for 1967, 1968 and so on, I'm afraid I've got only detailed datas on paper: if I can find some time, I may give you a "short" list with parties affiliation only. Please let me know which parliamentary elections are missing in your files.

I was planning on using the National Assembly records for those elections, but they're divided up by parliamentary group and not party. If you have stuff on party affiliation for the MPs in 1967 and so on I'd really appreciate that.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2009, 08:21:35 PM
The political evolution of Bretagne since in ten years is fascinating.

In 1998, right before the 1998 cantonal elections, the cantonal CG situation was the following in terms of left/right:

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Today, after the 2008 elections, the situation is as follows:

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For those who prefer things in terms of parties, here are the maps

1998

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2008

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2009, 09:30:21 PM
Sneak preview of upcoming stuff. Concerns old elections.

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More similar stuff for Lille and Bordeaux, and also starting on a 1967 map, nationwide.

I'll also work on a big ass map of the Grande Couronne and Petite Couronne, by 1962 constituency.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on March 05, 2009, 03:56:08 AM
Sneak preview of upcoming stuff. Concerns old elections.

()

More similar stuff for Lille and Bordeaux, and also starting on a 1967 map, nationwide.

I'll also work on a big ass map of the Grande Couronne and Petite Couronne, by 1962 constituency.

How do you make it for Grande and Petite Couronnes in 1962 ?
Remember it wasn't the same departements (and so, not the same constituencies).

Val d'Oise, Yvelines, Essonne, Val de Marne, Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine and Paris were all created to replace Seine and Seine-et-Oise in 1967.

Ile-de-France maps I've sent you are OK from 1968 (sure) or 1967 (maybe) until 1981 included.

As for Corsica, your 1962 map is OK until 1973 included; national maps I've sent you are OK for 1978 and 1981.

Oddly enough, Salmon, who says on his website that he has slightly redrawn Gaudillère's maps which were "mistaken" on some points, doesn't take into account these huge map evolutions in Ile-de-France and Corsica....

I'll try to contact him and make him work on this subject...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 05, 2009, 07:39:50 AM
Tell him to make insets for big cities and IdF ;)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 05, 2009, 09:13:09 PM
How do you make it for Grande and Petite Couronnes in 1962 ?
Remember it wasn't the same departements (and so, not the same constituencies).

Val d'Oise, Yvelines, Essonne, Val de Marne, Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine and Paris were all created to replace Seine and Seine-et-Oise in 1967.

Ile-de-France maps I've sent you are OK from 1968 (sure) or 1967 (maybe) until 1981 included.

As for Corsica, your 1962 map is OK until 1973 included; national maps I've sent you are OK for 1978 and 1981.

Crap. I meant post-division maps, so 1967 onwards.

Anyways, cleaned up Salmon's base map (lots of black smudges and small pixels) for metro France and did the insets. Still working on the petite couronne base map, which should take quite a bit of time. Anyways, I did a 1978 map - Petite Couronne (however, I'll do the Petite Couronne 1978 map when my base map is finished).

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I did 1978 because it's the top PCF result (86 seats). It's also quite interesting.

And I'll do 1981 next.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on March 06, 2009, 03:15:31 AM
Yeah, fine.

I didn't remember the PCF won all the constituencies in Gard...

The 1978 map is indeed interesting : almost a "classic" equilibrium between right and left.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 06, 2009, 07:45:15 AM

The 1978 map is indeed interesting : almost a "classic" equilibrium between right and left.

Yeah, 1978 is the only one that was really a close election (there were other "close" elections, but 1978 is by far the closest).

And almost one of the few French legislative elections that was a surprise. The left was really expecting to win this one, they led all polls. But their voters didn't turn out.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on March 06, 2009, 09:45:01 AM

The 1978 map is indeed interesting : almost a "classic" equilibrium between right and left.

Yeah, 1978 is the only one that was really a close election (there were other "close" elections, but 1978 is by far the closest).

And almost one of the few French legislative elections that was a surprise. The left was really expecting to win this one, they led all polls. But their voters didn't turn out.

Before the election, there was the famous Giscard speech at Verdun-sur-le-Doubs, which foresaw a "cohabitation": Giscard was OK and would have appointed a socialist PM (Rocard ? Mitterrand ? Mauroy ? I haven't read anything on whether he had already an idea).
This speech is referred to by public law and political sciences teachers and books, even today.

There were also famous images of Michel Rocard almost crying live on TV.

Nowadays, Rocard would have been applauded.

Then, Mitterrand said behind doors that that was one more evidence that Rocard is too weak to be the PS candidate.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2009, 08:53:33 AM
You want some "Red Belt"? Have this.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2009, 11:56:49 AM
1981!

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()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 11, 2009, 08:12:18 PM
Well, I'm done! I even found out about the constituencies in the Seine and Seine-et-Oise, allowing me to do 1958 and correct 1962 (Goguel was wrong in a few places).

1958

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1962

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1967

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1968

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1973

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I won't comment on them right now, even though some are fascinating. Just a few caveats for these. A lot of the party affiliations in the '60's and early '70's were a bit obscure and vary from source to source, so I used knowledge and the Assemblée's records by parliamentary groups. So, errors and/or arguments definitely possible for these maps.

Note on the centrist insanity in 1973. The RDS (Réformateurs démocrates sociaux) was composed of deputies from the MR (CD, rightie Rads, and small centrist/Christiandem parties). The UC (Union centriste) was composed mostly of deputies from the CDP (Centre, démocratie, et progrès), a spinoff from the CD which supported Pompidou and Chaban-Delmas in the 1969 and 1974 elections. The RDS and UC groups merged following Giscard's election in 1974 and became RCDS (Réformateurs, centristes et démocrates sociaux). The MNPL was Jacques Soustelle's French Algeria one-man show.

As you probably know, the Radicals and SFIO formed a common alliance/party/whatever called FGDS in 1967 and 1968, but I've broken the FGDS deputies down into Rads and Socialists.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2009, 04:49:23 AM
Bon sang !

What a big, big work. Congratulations. We should appreciate it at its real value, which is great.

Where did you find the constituencies of Seine and Seine-et-Oise ?

Loir-et-Cher is striking in 1962 and 1967: didn't remember there was 2 SFIO in this rightist department.

58 is even more striking than 68 and 81...

A lot of the party affiliations in the '60's and early '70's were a bit obscure and vary from source to source, so I used knowledge and the Assemblée's records by parliamentary groups. So, errors and/or arguments definitely possible for these maps.

I'll try to find time to give you some more precise data on 73,78 and 81 on the affiliation on election day (daily work, works in progress in my house, children don't let me enough free time these days....).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2009, 06:47:21 AM
Where did you find the constituencies of Seine and Seine-et-Oise ?

Wikipedia (French, that is) has a list of the constituencies giving a rough composition of each constituency. Constituencies in the Seine-et-Oise were hand-drawn by me based on the info, though.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: wdewey on April 13, 2009, 10:23:40 PM
I'm somewhat ignorant about French politics, but I never would have guessed the Right would do so well in Paris. Actually, the absence of any consistent urban/rural split is quite striking, compared with American politics


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2009, 04:37:03 AM
I'm somewhat ignorant about French politics, but I never would have guessed the Right would do so well in Paris. Actually, the absence of any consistent urban/rural split is quite striking, compared with American politics

The strength of the Parisian right is due to the fact that Chirac was Paris' mayor for 18 years.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on April 14, 2009, 06:43:46 AM
I'm somewhat ignorant about French politics, but I never would have guessed the Right would do so well in Paris. Actually, the absence of any consistent urban/rural split is quite striking, compared with American politics

The strength of the Parisian right is due to the fact that Chirac was Paris' mayor for 18 years.

Yes, but that's a weak answer. Paris has some very wealthy areas that are consistently right-wing, Chirac or no Chirac. While Chirac does/did play an important role, his effect nowadays is certainly overplayed.

Actually, the absence of any consistent urban/rural split is quite striking, compared with American politics

There is a rural/urban split in a lot of places, but one needs to remember that European urban/rural splits are never as pronounced as the ones in the United State since many large European inner cities include very wealthy areas, unlike most U.S. cities. In France, wealthy core areas were strongly right-wing, but more and more leftie these days.

There is a reverse rural/urban split in the Southwest. The rural areas are Socialist, left over from the days of the SFIO (pre-Mitterrand socialists), which was a primarily rural party. The SFIO had strong party bosses which kept the SFIO alive there, but the southwest is generally secular (though you have to be careful with that) and a Second Empire Republican stronghold. The righties of various stripes were strong in urban areas, such as Toulouse or Carcassonne, although the left has made impressive gains in both cities.

There is a mild and far-from-universal typical rural right vs. urban left in most other areas, although as I said, it's 'mild' and far from universal.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 03, 2009, 10:55:18 AM
Tarn

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Tarn-et-Garonne

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on May 05, 2009, 04:27:58 AM
In Tarn, old coal mines in the north and Toulouse far suburbs in the south west for the left.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on May 05, 2009, 10:35:35 AM
There is a reverse rural/urban split in the Southwest. The rural areas are Socialist, left over from the days of the SFIO (pre-Mitterrand socialists) Napoleon I.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 11, 2009, 08:01:31 PM
Maps taken from PDF files sent by Fab.

Maps of pre-Tours French socialism in the late 19th century/very early 20th century.

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1914 SFIO is pretty revealing

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Poor results in today's solid pink Southwest, which was still dominated by les notables of the RadSoc system. Best results in the beginnings of the industrial 13, the "red Var", the "red Limousin" in Haute-Vienne, rural Allier and surrounding departments (lots of metayage/sharecropping in that region), and the beginnings of the industrial northeast section of France. A lot of those heavily red departments later became the PCF's strongholds for most of the 20th century.

1919 SFIO is very interesting (one year before the split)

()

Deux-Sevres is a big stickout in there. I'm not sure how to explain that without knowledge of the Socialist list there, a map of the local results in the department and local/regional factors. Alsace is also very interesting. Alsace is working class, but largely Catholic working class. I don't recall the Catholic working class areas voting SPD during the Kaiserreich, though I may be wrong. Best results seem to be in Haut-Rhin, which is the most working class of the two (I believe potash mining outside Mulhouse and Cernay was quite big in 1919) though the least Protestant of the two (IIRC, Protestants are around Sarre-Union, Wissembourg, and Strasbourg-Campagne) - though there is an important community in Mulhouse and, I think, Colmar. Though the Socialists were allied to the German-Alsatian autonomist party in Haut-Rhin too. Vote might be some odd voting results as a result of recent return to France, an odd occurrence of devout Catholic working class voting on the left, or remainders of the Republic of Alsace-Lorraine experience in 1918.

More later.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2009, 04:35:46 AM
If I have time one day, I may explain what were the different wings of socialism in France: very interesting, as the Socialist Party in France is not at all linked to trade unions.
There were intellectual debates between elected (or not) politicians, no practical solutions and processes.

As for 1919 (Alsace), I have no explanation, except maybe the rejection of war: pacifism was very pregnant after WWI and Jaurès was the more pacifist before the war.

For Deux-Sèvres (and Maine-et-Loire in 1914), maybe textile industries around Cholet and in towns in the northern part of the department.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 12, 2009, 08:29:42 AM
If I have time one day, I may explain what were the different wings of socialism in France: very interesting, as the Socialist Party in France is not at all linked to trade unions.
There were intellectual debates between elected (or not) politicians, no practical solutions and processes.

I was too lazy last night to write up some detailed explanation on it, but here goes:

The PSR was a blanquist (revolution by putsch or coup-d'etat then the revolutionaries institute socialism) party. They were "nationalist" socialists, jacobinist patriots and anti-clerical. They became more union-oriented after the Boulangist splinter from the group and the Vaillant era turned the party into a much more unionist party.

The POSR was both a reformist party (possiblism - which judged that socialism was possible through a non-revolutionary and non-Marxist gradual buildup, such as decentralization, and national legislative work) and union/strike-oriented party. Allemane was the leader of the syndicalist wing, though there also was the intellectual wing.

The POF was France's first Marxist party and is probably the most famous of the four presented. It was revolutionary (as opposed to the reformist POSR) and wanted to abolish capitalism. Members included Jules Guesde, Paul Lafargue, and Marcel Cachin (who led the Communist faction at the Tours Congress). As you said, there wasn't a major union movement behind this party, but it had working-class bases of support (Allier, Nord) though I think you also had an intellectual revolutionary wing. The first socialist city in the world was Commentry, Allier, a coal mining city, which was won by the POF in 1882.

Independent Socialists were actually people who refused to join these parties, though they became the most reformist wing. They respected parliamentarianism, they refused party discipline and they were open to working with the RadSocs. The most famous member was, of course, Jean Jaurès. Other famous names include Alexandre Millerand, René Viviani, Aristide Briand. Most joined the SFIO, though the most reformist wing of the group joined the PRS (a small, slightly nationalist, socialist party which actually existed until the '30's or so).

The SFIO was formed by the Socialist Party of France (PSdF) - which was the PSR and POF - and the French Socialist Party (PSF) - which was the POSR and the Independents.

Of course, there was never a mass following for these outfits pre-1905, 13% in 1902 for PSF and PSdF combined, 9% in 1898. The first socialists in Parliament were, according to my data, 33 Socialists in 1893 (the same time the RadSocs moved from the left to the centre-left, and later centre).

Quote
For Deux-Sèvres (and Maine-et-Loire in 1914), maybe textile industries around Cholet and in towns in the northern part of the department.

Yeah, there's always been industry in Cholet etc, but it's always been Catholic working class votes and I don't recall seeing any sustained long-term socialist tradition.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2009, 04:27:50 PM
Great, you've done it, this synthesis on the 4 main currents of French socialism.

The problem is that Allemane didn't prevail. And that, contrary to UK, Germany, Sweden, Norway, etc, that weren't the TU that created the party.
In France, all the social laws were adopted from the central state, by more "enlightened" republican and radical politicians, not under pressure from big TU or in a sort of consensus between TU and the power.

No TU + Guesde's influence explain many French socialism's weaknesses, up to now !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Math on July 12, 2009, 07:57:25 PM
For Deux-Sèvres (and Maine-et-Loire in 1914), maybe textile industries around Cholet and in towns in the northern part of the department.

Yeah, there's always been industry in Cholet etc, but it's always been Catholic working class votes and I don't recall seeing any sustained long-term socialist tradition.
[/quote]

The Choletais has always been very conservative since the beginning of the third Republic, but the Baugeois (the north-eastern part of the department) was left leaning at this period and stayed like this until the 60's at least.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 20, 2009, 02:16:53 PM
I know I posted all other Euro maps in the Euro thread, but sue me.

()

Especially amusing how constituency boundaries are important factors. In the West, de Villiers is the Eurosceptic standard bearer and has coalesced all anti-Euro votes on the right, more or less, with his outfits.

Aside from that, Essonne (NDA's "homestate") - Yerres in particular (36% of the vote there) and, amusingly, de Gaulle's Haute-Marne (lol) and 8% in Colombey (other lol). Other high performances in more indutrialized right-wing and traditional Gaullist departments out east and in the NW. Orne is a bit peculiar, though it had a crush on de Gaulle in the '60's.

Alsace ain't liking no Eurosceptic clowns (despite being Gaullist in the past), and the bourgeois in the 92 ain't liking them either.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on July 20, 2009, 04:42:56 PM
I know I posted all other Euro maps in the Euro thread, but sue me.

()

Especially amusing how constituency boundaries are important factors. In the West, de Villiers is the Eurosceptic standard bearer and has coalesced all anti-Euro votes on the right, more or less, with his outfits.

Aside from that, Essonne (NDA's "homestate") - Yerres in particular (36% of the vote there) and, amusingly, de Gaulle's Haute-Marne (lol) and 8% in Colombey (other lol). Other high performances in more indutrialized right-wing and traditional Gaullist departments out east and in the NW. Orne is a bit peculiar, though it had a crush on de Gaulle in the '60's.

Alsace ain't liking no Eurosceptic clowns (despite being Gaullist in the past), and the bourgeois in the 92 ain't liking them either.

LOLz for Haute-Marne and Colombey !

Dupont-Aignan may have gathered some of the former FN votes in the inner East and in the great Parisian Basin.
But that's tiny...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 20, 2009, 05:52:40 PM
I was on a LO-spree this afternoon, it seems. Laguiller's outfit, but old-fashioned Trots, without the whole new 'feminist'/'ecologist' etiquettes attached.

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LO's electoral geography has always been quite bizarre: on one hand, they do very well in industrial France but also well in rural, usually rural 'red' areas but also, at times, rural 'blue' areas.

Laguiller or LO never had the yuppy/Maoist vote that the LCR has (or had, it seems), so Laguiller always performed bad in inner cities though generally better in poorer suburbs - though, unsurprisingly, an old white bank employee never appealed much to poor North Africans in the 93 like Besancenot is sometimes able to do.

()

 


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 22, 2009, 07:47:13 PM
The CDSP has released data for all Euro elections since 1979, including results since 1989 by constituency!

Therefore, I decided to exploit the site's riches to make two very interesting - and, to my knowledge, unique - maps.

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Constituencies the PS won:

Ariege: 'nuff said
Aude: 'nuff said
Tarn (Carmaux): old mining regions
Landes-3: Typical Socialist Southwest seat with no wealthy coastal communities like the others have (though, granted, few - and even those have a strong 'Champagne Socialist' tradition)
Hautes-Pyrenees (Bagneres-de-Bigorres): See above, rural seat without much clericals (Lourdes) or cities (Tarbes)
Creuse-1: Western Creuse, similar to Haute-Vienne, and without Chiraquiste or UDF influence from the east
Nievre-1: Urban seat including Nevers. Beregovoy's old seat. Not winning the 3rd (Mitterrand's old seat) is a really bad sign for the PS. Cosne-Cours' constituency (2nd) is the most rightie, including Cosne-Cours itself and right-wing areas along the Loire.
Calvados (Caen-Est): Poorer and more industrial Caen
Cotes-d'Armor (Guingamp): Part of the Breton Red Belt. PCF did well (12.15%)
Loire-Atlantique (Saint-Nazaire): Ugly shipbuilding city which has never liked Communists
Deux-Sevres (Niort): More the result of the drug addict's influence, though they did lose her seat (Saint-Maixent) narrowly. Without that, would probably have been in line with other cities such as Poitiers or La Rochelle.
Haute-Vienne: Two rural 'red' seats
Lille proper: The non-downtown and slightly poorer seats, though the PS was strong in Lille due to their top candidate (Pargneaux, a Aubry robot) and Aubry's influence.
Nord (outside Lille): Industrial Dunkerque
Marseille proper: Dirt poor areas of the north. Old PCF land.
Seine-Maritime: Industrial suburbs of Rouen
Pas-de-Calais: Mining belt (minus Henin-Beaumont, where the FN actually won) and the industrial harbour of Boulogne-sur-Mer
Lorraine: The old mines of Longwy, Moyeuvre-Grande and Rombas. Rombas is a bit surprising, and they only slightly did worse than Royal in 2007. Probably the proof of the UMP's losses with blue collars re:2007.
93: Aubervilliers
94: Vitry and Alfortville. Vitry is old PCF land (and they actually won the city with 18.67%), while Alfortville is slightly richer (higher Greenie and UMP vote than in Vitry)
Polynesie-1: wtf. Probably nationalists. But yes, caveats. Turnout!
Wallis and Futuna: slightly less wtf, they've been trending left for some time, though 40% is definitely wtf. But yes, caveats. Turnout!
Reunion (Saint-Denis, I think): PS top candidate is president of the Saint-Denis agglomeration community and is from the city. But yes, caveats. Turnout!

Other notes: The PCF did quite well, they did very well in the old mining belt in the Nord and won parts of the 93 Red Belt.

I posted that DLR map a few days ago, and it was 5% in Essonne. Looking at constituency results, did rather horribly in the department EXCEPT NDA's constituency (won with 24%!)

Note the favourite son vote for Baudis around Toulouse, and Riquet around Valenciennes. Arnaud Danjean may even have had an effect in Saone-et-Loire (he's the guy who ran against that lil sh**t Montebourg in 2007)

Very poor FLNKS-nat turnout in New Caledonia, compounded with rather good loyalist turnout and all their votes coalescing around the UMP.

Ah, forgot to colour in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon correctly. UMP 34%, PS 24%, Green 21%. It's a cool island.





Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on July 22, 2009, 07:53:21 PM
()

Very interesting.

If anything, it's perfect proof for the 'theory', or more scientific fact, that urbanites switched to the Greenies. Look at where the dark is!

Rather simple formula:

Urban city or suburban area + high CPIS people - industrial areas/mines - ultra wealthy people + middleclass = High Green vote ( bigger city only increases Green vote)

Also note the effect of Bove, Rivasi. Best not take the results in Corse all that seriously, of course.

Also fun to note that local environmental problems have minimal effect on the Green vote. Maybe the votes on the Breton coast, but there's a lot of middle-class there. For example, look at the Green shares around the Cap de la Hague (nuclear plant) - either average or below average.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 23, 2009, 12:12:25 AM
Excellente !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on July 23, 2009, 08:27:44 AM
Fantastic !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 14, 2009, 10:12:56 AM
()

The FR was the main right-wing party during the later Third Republic. The FR was founded in 1903 by conservative republicans, thus the party became the party of the upper republican bourgeoisie, the industrialists and so forth. In 1919, the ALP (the party of the ralliés - Catholics rallied to the Republic) merged into the FR. During the 1930s, the party moved to the right under Louis Marin and it became more of a national-conservative party and even formed, in 1937, a "Liberty Front" with charming people like Doriot's PPF.

Post-war, it became the PRL and later the CNI.

The map clearly shows it was the party of clerical Catholics (no surprise there, considering the above), only exception was Alsace where there was a very strong local Christian democratic party (UPR... think BVP in Bavaria). I think these results seem to count the UPR's Mosellan counterpart, the URL in the FR since, until 1932, the URL sat in the FR groups (as opposed to the AD or PDP groups like the UPR).

I don't have data for the AD itself, but I'd be interested in making a map if anybody has it, though with the AD, it's probably a bit difficult.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on August 14, 2009, 06:08:12 PM
()

I don't have data for the AD itself, but I'd be interested in making a map if anybody has it, though with the AD, it's probably a bit difficult.
Unfortunately, I've opened all my books...
But I keep it in mind !


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 15, 2009, 10:22:10 AM
Unfortunately, I've opened all my books...
But I keep it in mind !

I can understand why. The AD was split between different parliamentary groups all the time...

Anyways.

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Cavaignac, a run-of-the-mill moderate early republican, had a vote which was quite a bit ambiguous: he was the main anti-Bonapartist candidate and his vote reflected that, so it reflected both 'whites' (monarchists) and 'reds' (republicans). Large swaths of the non-'white' countryside plebiscited the name "Bonaparte" thinking they were voting for Napoleon I.

Cavaignac won four departments: Finistere (I would assume that it was, in 1848, atleast plurality Breton-speaking :)), Morbihan, Var and the Bouches-du-Rhone.

()

An early map of French republicanism, little in common with current-day socialism - but a lot in common with earlier French socialism and early communism.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on August 15, 2009, 06:06:47 PM
The latter is, indeed, so typical.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 15, 2009, 09:46:20 PM
Napoléon was, of course, thought to have magical powers, so it's not hard to see why Bonaparte won.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 15, 2009, 11:34:59 PM
()

An early map of French republicanism, little in common with current-day socialism - but a lot in common with earlier French socialism and early communism.



     What proportion of seats did they hold after the election?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 16, 2009, 08:21:05 AM
()

An early map of French republicanism, little in common with current-day socialism - but a lot in common with earlier French socialism and early communism.



     What proportion of seats did they hold after the election?

A quarter and 32% of the vote. The conservative-monarchist Parti de l'ordre had won a majority of seats and 59% of the vote.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 16, 2009, 09:17:38 AM
An odd little thing I made recently;

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'tis regrettable that department boundaries are often as different from the old provincial stuff as they are (a couple of cases are especially bad) but you can get a rough impression I think.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 16, 2009, 09:24:08 AM
'tis regrettable that department boundaries are often as different from the old provincial stuff as they are (a couple of cases are especially bad) but you can get a rough impression I think.

That was the intention.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 16, 2009, 09:27:22 AM
'tis regrettable that department boundaries are often as different from the old provincial stuff as they are (a couple of cases are especially bad) but you can get a rough impression I think.

That was the intention.

Obviously. I just want to know quite what they had against Picardy.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 16, 2009, 09:30:12 AM
'tis regrettable that department boundaries are often as different from the old provincial stuff as they are (a couple of cases are especially bad) but you can get a rough impression I think.

That was the intention.

Obviously. I just want to know quite what they had against Picardy.

Their irrational hatred of Picardy continues to this day. They want to abolish the region (as they do with other regions, including Alsace).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on August 16, 2009, 09:47:23 AM
You may even have spiltted Guyenne and Gascogne ;)

But department boundaries aren't themselves relevant, of course: Eure-et-Loir is both Normandy and Beauce (Orléanais), Haute-Garonne is both Languedoc and Gascogne, Pas-de-Calais is both Boulonnais-Calaisis and Artois, Yonne is at the same time Ile-de-France, Champagne and Bourgogne, Oise and Aisne are both Picardie and Valois-Ile-de-France, Haute-Loire is both Languedoc and Auvergne, etc.

Vive l'Ancien Régime ! ;)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 16, 2009, 09:51:43 AM
You may even have spiltted Guyenne and Gascogne ;)

I might have tried if I knew where the boundary between the two was... the only maps I've seen have them as one unit. Same with some of the other subprovinces (if that's the right term).

Quote
But department boundaries aren't themselves relevant, of course: Eure-et-Loir is both Normandy and Beauce (Orléanais), Haute-Garonne is both Languedoc and Gascogne, Pas-de-Calais is both Boulonnais-Calaisis and Artois, Yonne is at the same time Ile-de-France, Champagne and Bourgogne, Oise and Aisne are both Picardie and Valois-Ile-de-France, Haute-Loire is both Languedoc and Auvergne, etc.

Some of Aisne is in what was Champagne as well... but the point of using the departments was as a lazy comparision trick tool for maps (and data) at department level.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 16, 2009, 09:54:18 AM

Indeed.

(especially since my ancestors were in the Chouanerie, more likely than not)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 22, 2009, 09:24:38 AM
A fun little map copied from from an interesting (but not little, really) book:

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Source: Robb, G. 2007, The Discovery of France, London.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 22, 2009, 10:41:49 AM
A fun little map copied from from an interesting (but not little, really) book:

()

Source: Robb, G. 2007, The Discovery of France, London.

Ah, yes. Fascinating stuff, that.

Hashemite, this was the one I was telling you about.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 24, 2009, 07:26:51 PM
Fun stuff with Al's map by province, the 2007 results. Quite nice.

()

I also mentioned some time ago that the CDSP had released the 1979 and 1984 Euro results by department, so I drooled.

()

The colour codes should be rather obvious, or if not the patterns on the map should allow you to match the colours to their parties.

()

rofl


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 24, 2009, 07:39:48 PM
More provincial results!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 24, 2009, 07:47:12 PM

Nice map. It confirms what I was saying about Finistère a post or two ago.

A few other comments:

Finistère was/is the heart of Breton in Bretagne and most rural western villages were probably, IIRC, uni-lingual Breton areas. Breton expanded to western Morbihan and Cotes-d'Armor and the major line of division between la Bretagne bretonnante and the rest by the 19th century ran from around Paimpol in the north to the Brière swamps in the south - yes, a small part of Loire-Atlantique (Guérande and Brière) spoke Breton for quite sometime. The eastern part of Ille-et-Vilaine and a large part of Loire-Atlantique (incl Nantes) never spoke Breton, even in its heydays, in the Middle Ages. Rennes was, even then, on the border between Breton and whatever. The patois common in Ille-et-Vilaine was gallo, which is spoken to this day in rural villages by old people. I've heard it, it's quite an amazing language. And gallo is also used in the Rennes metro, where signs are bilingual. GeoBreizh has a map, since they're so cool:

().

The south of France spoke various langues d'oc, now known as Occitan. And Northern Catalonia spoke Catalan, the Basques spoke Basque, and Provence spoke Francoprovençal which extended to dialects around Lyon, Dauphiné, Savoy and southern Jura.

Parts of the Nord (the part going from outside Dunkerque to, I guess, Lille exburbia. Places like Bergues) spoke Flemish and did so for quite some time.

Parts of Alsace spoke Alsatian, parts of Moselle spoke francique and the rest of Lorraine had a local dialect.

Of course, in the French speaking regions you also had accents or dialects, such as chtimi/picard, which were perhaps more patois than anything else.

Michel Debré does not approve this message. Aaaaaaargh, speak FRENCH



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 26, 2009, 12:58:53 AM
Michel Debré does not approve this message. Aaaaaaargh, speak FRENCH

Michel Debré also does not approve of two-round legislative elections.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on August 26, 2009, 03:57:28 AM
Michel Debré does not approve this message. Aaaaaaargh, speak FRENCH

Michel Debré also does not approve of two-round legislative elections.

That's why I haven't hated him entirely...

France with British first-past-the-vote would be so coooool !
(just for fun, though, as I think our current system is the best, from a pragmatic viewpoint and if we forget about the problem of gerrymandering)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 26, 2009, 02:51:09 PM
Cool, but horrible.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 28, 2009, 04:56:43 PM
1999 Results by constituency:

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Orange for the UDF, yellow for CPNT, purple for RPF. IIRC, the RPF won a constituency in Vaucluse, which is harder to make out though the constituencies in the Alpes-Maritimes, Var and Vendée should be.

CPNT won 11 constituencies, and broke 40% in both constituencies of the Somme estuary. All are major hunting areas (gibier d'eau). The CPNT vote is concentrated in those hunting areas on the shores of Gironde, Charente-Maritime, Lower Normandy, Somme and sometimes Pas-de-Calais. CPNT is more the "C Party", since PNT doesn't get them much votes methinks. :)

And the media refers to them as "les chasseurs" anyways.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 29, 2009, 07:56:46 PM
()

Let us pause for a moment of wtflols. The Socialists won, kind of, the Manche's 2nd constituency. The Manche's 2nd constituency, yes, the Manche's 2nd constituency. rofl UMP rofl. That's a place where legislative election runoffs, if they even happen, tend to be between right-wing rivals.

Anyways, constituencies the UMP won:

Alpes-Maritimes 8: Cannes
Corse-du-Sud 2: the stronghold of the Rocca Serra family. It's Corse, so family name and said family's political affiliation is much more important than anything else.
Doubs-5: Pontarlier and environs, a very conservative and Catholic rural area... as opposed to the more industrialized and secularized areas north of the department.
Lozere-2: The most Catholic area of Lozere - aka the area that includes none of the Cevennes. And also doesn't include a major urban centre (Mende)
Cantal-2: Saint-Flour, also very Catholic and rural as opposed to Aurillac which has some old Radical traditions. The UMP gains between 2004 and 2009 were quite small (below national average) in this area - primarily due to Chirac being gone (though the UMP did surprisingly well in Chiraquie in 2009 considering how sh**t-poor Sarko did there in 2007). My map (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/EUParliament2009-UMPchange.png) shows it well and goes in the face of the stupid pundits who like to flaunt that the UMP is gaining back ground in Chirac's backyard.
Nord-9: Marcq-en-Baroeul, the wealthiest area in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais. A suburb of Lille, too.
Rhone-5: Caluire-et-Cuire, the very wealthy suburbs of Lyon.
Bas-Rhin - all except Strasbourg and Haut-Rhin - all except Colmar, Cernay and Mulhouse: Ahem, Alsace. What's also interesting is that, IIRC, Alsatian Protestants (of which there are quite a few, which surprises some people who think of Alsace as Catholic heartland), lean to the right much more than Protestant minorities in other parts of the country... I suppose the special religious exceptions in Alsace-Moselle explain this a lot. Not to say, however, that there isn't a religious divide: just that Protestants tend to be Gaullists and Catholics tend to be Christiandems. Another division in Alsace was between Alsatian-speakers and French/Vosgiens-speakers, the latter of which tend to the left. Outside of Strasbourg, Royal's "best" performances (aka, places where she actually broke 40% lol) were all in French-speaking country. I ought to write more about Elsàss another day, since I love Elsàss.
Paris: Very wealthy places.
Hauts-de-Seine: Yay more very wealthy places.
Yvelines: No, it can't be more very wealthy places. Yes, it is!
Guyane-2: Lol
Mayotte: Lol

Vendee really does stick out on that map, no?



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: minionofmidas on August 30, 2009, 03:21:32 PM
All the non-red bits stick out. Wtf Guayana?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 30, 2009, 03:26:07 PM
All the non-red bits stick out. Wtf Guayana?

European elections since the adoption of the new constituencies in 2003 are mostly decided on favourite son votes (less so in 2009) since turnout is so low. The Green top candidate in 2004 and 2009 was from Guadeloupe and the Green's second candidate in both 2004 and 2009 was from Guyane. The UDF top candidate in 2004 was from Martinique. The PCR, of course, is from Reunion, though it allies with local Martinican parties.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on August 30, 2009, 07:01:08 PM
Any requests?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 05, 2009, 02:14:15 PM
Old thing I always wanted to do.

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Tapie's 1994 run for the Radicals.

Some traditional RadSoc areas (Charente, Charente-Maritime, Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Haute-Corse, Haute-Pyrenees, Indre-et-Loire, Eure-et-Loir) but there's also a large part of the vote (majority probably, the PRG can't poll 12% nationally just on strength in its own strongholds) that came from Socialists or other lefties, as the higher shades in places like Lorraine or the North show well (those aren't traditional Radical areas, though there exists various pockets in those areas too). And also a favourite son vote in Bouches-du-Rhone and surroundings (for Tapie) and Guyane (for Taubira).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on September 05, 2009, 04:20:13 PM
I'm not here for long tonight so I haven't checked, but it would be fine to see the FN map for this election, in Picardie, Ardennes, Lorraine, to see if Tapie hadn't stolen some popular vote from the FN: that's not entirely impossible, as these are areas of "leftist" FN vote.

Just an idea that may be entirely wrong.

Anyway, I understand that this was an "old thing you always wanted to do": that's very interesting (like when I've asked you tomake Juquin 1988 and Rocard 1969: unique maps !).
Thanks Hash.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 07, 2009, 04:47:19 PM
I'm not here for long tonight so I haven't checked, but it would be fine to see the FN map for this election, in Picardie, Ardennes, Lorraine, to see if Tapie hadn't stolen some popular vote from the FN: that's not entirely impossible, as these are areas of "leftist" FN vote.


Here thee goes:

()

You're probably kind of right, unsurprisingly. Though Somme's poor result is based more on the strength of CPNT there...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 07, 2009, 04:50:51 PM
Oh, now that's wonderful. Not perfect, but still wonderful.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on September 07, 2009, 04:58:15 PM
I'm not here for long tonight so I haven't checked, but it would be fine to see the FN map for this election, in Picardie, Ardennes, Lorraine, to see if Tapie hadn't stolen some popular vote from the FN: that's not entirely impossible, as these are areas of "leftist" FN vote.


Here thee goes:

()

You're probably kind of right, unsurprisingly. Though Somme's poor result is based more on the strength of CPNT there...

Mmmmh... I wouldn't be so sure in fact. Tapie may have stolen something, but not much.

Probably more an effect of "forgotten" people: Thiérache in Aisne, all the Ardennes, former combat zones in Meuse, Meurthe, Marne, etc, all areas really far away from Paris and the power.

Here, it's not really racism that works for the FN (as in Haut-Rhin, in Eure-et-Loir, in Oise, in the South-East or even in Loire), more the isolation.

So, Tapie's so-called rebellion against the "establishement", but without racism, may have play well here.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on September 07, 2009, 05:02:10 PM
Finishing the 1994 spree:

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on September 08, 2009, 05:19:44 AM
In 1994, the right was triumphant and I think many voters from the right felt free to express themselves in voting for de Villiers, more "rebellious" than... Balladur, the PM of the time, and anti-European, just 18 months after the BIG debate over Masstricht.

Apart from Villiers' personal influence in the West and the inner Centre-West, it's a quite traditional rightist map, minus pro-European Alsace and Pyrénées-Atlantiques (Bretagne is a bit high for him...) and some FN areas (North, South-East).

Pyrénées-Orientales are funny.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2009, 04:51:24 PM
DLR has made maps of its Euro results by commune:

http://www.debout-la-republique.fr/IMG/pdf/DLR_regions1.pdf

http://www.debout-la-republique.fr/IMG/pdf/DLR_regions2.pdf

A note on the low DLR result in Bretagne, Pays-de-la-Loire and Poitou-Charentes (Ouest constituency): the DLR, due to lack of funds, couldn't print out their ballots in this constituency and required voters to print them out themselves.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on October 12, 2009, 03:40:40 AM
DLR has made maps of its Euro results by commune:

http://www.debout-la-republique.fr/IMG/pdf/DLR_regions1.pdf

http://www.debout-la-republique.fr/IMG/pdf/DLR_regions2.pdf

A note on the low DLR result in Bretagne, Pays-de-la-Loire and Poitou-Charentes (Ouest constituency): the DLR, due to lack of funds, couldn't print out their ballots in this constituency and required voters to print them out themselves.
Awesome even if a bit... geometrical... in their national map.
I mean, awesome to see a joke party making electoral maps !

Have you noticed that, quite often, "big" results occurred in communes which are close to departmental borders ?

The angry vote of forgotten people ?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 12, 2009, 08:22:59 PM
10.95% (1984) vs. 10.44% (2007)

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2009, 02:04:31 PM
I'm not sure why, but I can't but help think "protest party".


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 15, 2009, 02:12:03 PM
I'm not sure why, but I can't but help think "protest party".

On the topic of the FN and notably the FN's meteoric downfall in Paris, I like this little applet thingee: http://geoelections.free.fr/France/Paris/extrdte.htm


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on December 04, 2009, 10:56:22 PM
A few old maps I put together over the past week; mostly a series on the early evolution of republicanism in France:

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Also, seems like I never got around to posting this map:

()

Fab originally asked for it after the Euros, but I got distracted and so forth (apologies). The comparison to the Greenies map in June is quite correct, though the factors influencing both votes may differ. Eg; the Green vote in the Finistère was much more demographic-based (urban, 'green' area feeling and the like) will the PSU vote by 1981 was based on old factors (PSU's base was around Morlaix with Tanguy-Prigent). Though elsewhere the factors are similar: I'm not an expert on the PSU (sadly), but by 1981, I would suppose an early bobo moderate urban middle-class vote, the same which carried the Greenies in June.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on December 08, 2009, 06:48:33 AM
Oh, I've just seen this !
Wonderful ! Thanks !

Indeed, Bouchardeau's map is very interesting and I'm pretty happy to have seen her as a sort of Europe-Ecologie (not Green...) candidate, 28 years before the real ones...

Of course, she couldn't be strong in the North and her Charente-Maritime and Gironde results are comparatively weak, BUT in 1981, there was Crépeau, also with a similar "green" image (whatever the reality behind it).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 09, 2009, 07:39:13 PM
()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2010, 11:13:26 AM
Interactive maps of the Euro results by commune, canton and so forth are available online on Geoclip (at the cost of removing the 2005 referendum and 2007 results...)

http://www.geoclip.fr/danseuse/carto.php?lang=fr

For example:

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2010, 06:30:47 PM
Map of the Green vote in IDF

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on January 11, 2010, 04:09:05 AM

Amazing to see the "bobo" effect in it !!!
Rambouillet and around was already "green"... Fontainebleau also...
How can some people still believe French Greens are here to protect little birds and trees ???

Roissy and its airport had no effect... and in popular zones (immediate noth of Paris, towards Poissy and Mantes-la-Jolie in Yvelines' north, in Val-de-Marne and extreme north of Essonne), Greens were weak.

But popular zones where newcomers from middle classes are migrating to (SW corner of Seine-saint-Denis, frontier area between Val-de-Marne and Hauts-de-Seine, Cergy,...) voted big for Greens.

Fascinating and depressing...
When I see their vote, I hate the French Greens ! ;)


BTW, Hash, I'm a bit late on my promise, but, at least, I've put the accurate books out of their shelves: so, I beg for a little more patience... ;)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 24, 2010, 11:18:29 AM
Fabien sent me the files I had asked for about the Fourth Republic, so here's the 1945 maps:

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()

()

I gather grayed out departments indicate that the party/thingee didn't run a list (the vote was PR by department, so it makes sense).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 24, 2010, 11:33:29 AM
Lolzere again, I see...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: big bad fab on January 25, 2010, 08:48:39 AM
SFIO in 1945 looked already like a Mitterrandesque map of the 1970s...

PCF, on the contrary, is still a bit more "eastern" than in the 1960s-1990s.

And without Gaullist lists per se, the famous map of de Gaulle (occupied France + Massif Central) can't be seen here.

(I don't know if Hash intends to make 1951 and 1956, but it's rather interesting to see that, rather swiftly after WW2, all the great areas were present, with de Gaulle creating the only important change in 1958-1965).



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2010, 06:18:36 PM
CDSP now has the regional results for 2004 and 1998 up:

Here's the 2004 runoff(s) by constituency:
()

The UMP actually outperformed Sarkozy's 2007 runoff showing in Cantal-2 (Saint-Flour), both Lozere constituencies, Puy-de-Dome-3 (VGE's turf) Vendee-4. Jacques Blanc outrunning Sarkozy in Lozere is explainable by the double-fact that Sarko did very poorly there and that Blanc was from there. de Villiers had relatively poor transfers to Sarkozy in the 2007 runoff, a fact which is never noted or picked up.

Weird that Giacobbi didn't win his constituency, I would have thought that the friends-and-neighbors effect would have been stronger, especially on the Island.

The extent of the UMP's destruction in working-class areas (remember, in a lot of those areas, the FN was also in the runoff, pulling a good 8-14% generally) is also quite phenomenal.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 06, 2010, 09:41:58 AM
Randomly found this old map from Geoelections.fr

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Royal was a much more rural SFIOish and urban candidate than Jospin. And she was a really, really awful candidate for Alsace (I think she won like one commune in the whole region)

Some of the differences in Royal's showing in working-class areas compared to Jospin are interesting. She did relatively poorly in the Nord coalbelt, Le Havre, the Doubs, parts of Montceau/Autun, and the old railway-line industrial areas in Aube/Yonne (which are PCF areas); but quite a bit better than Jospin in Longwy, the Ardennes tip, and Fos-sur-Mer.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2010, 09:10:39 PM
2007 legislative in Cotes-d'Armor

()

Reading Siegfried, I find some of the changes since 1910 a bit surprising. In other places such as the Finistère, the patterns noticed by Siegfried in 1910 are still there...

For starters, there was a big reactionary bloc around Dinan; but Loudeac and the south wasn't a reactionary stronghold... and Paimpol was the old stronghold of the left. Though the famous Red Belt which Siegfried noted the beginnings of are still there, fairly obviously.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 08, 2010, 04:25:03 AM
Dinan is partly a banlieue of Rennes, now, sort of... ;)

Around Loudéac ? Well, the population continues to diminish: so, the old who remain count for more and the right is on the rise in comparison with the beginning of the 20th century.

Around Paimpol, Lézardrieux and towards Guingamp, wasn't there some industries ? I don't remember but it could explain the past situation.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 08, 2010, 08:18:31 AM
Dinan is partly a banlieue of Rennes, now, sort of... ;)

Around Loudéac ? Well, the population continues to diminish: so, the old who remain count for more and the right is on the rise in comparison with the beginning of the 20th century.

Around Paimpol, Lézardrieux and towards Guingamp, wasn't there some industries ? I don't remember but it could explain the past situation.

Yeah, I know. I just meant it's surprising (and Siegfried would find it too) because from his description of the psyche, he insinuated that Dinan's reactionary bloc would remain solid, but at the same time he opened the door to changes (which happened, by the book) in the Red Belt and in western Morbihan.

Paimpol was a left-wing stronghold because of the fishing industry. Siegfried has a whole chapter on how coastal people are different from rural people, with the coast being for the left (because of the lack of nobility, strong clergy, big property and a unique independent small property psyche with coastal people).

Guingamp and the Red Belt actually used to be a royalist/Bonapartist stronghold until 1906/1910, because of big property and strong nobility but he notes that it changed in 1906/1910 with a rather unique 'political revolt' of the people (who are Bretonnants, not Gallo, it's a big point here) against the weakening nobility and so on. The Red Belt here isn't an industrial belt (except for Lorient suburbia - Hennebont).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 04:09:31 PM
2007 legislative in Finistere

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There, on the other hand, patterns aren't much different (Cornouaille went to the right starting in the 1920s or so, but has come back to the left like in 1910...)

For the left, generally: Quimper (urban centre, middle-class and moderate), the major fishing centres on the coast of south Cornouaille, and usually Concarneau and Douarnenez (old sardine communist areas), the industrial hub of Brest which is expanding into its suburbs (unlike in 1910, when there were no real suburbs and only faubourgs which were already socialist), the Monts-d'Aree and the area east of Morlaix which is old anti-clerical democratic land.

For the right: the old clerical Leon (now lots of wealthy coastal towns), the more clerical Montagnes Noires, residential coastal towns in Cornouaille, sometimes Crozon (which is wealthy).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: PGSable on March 13, 2010, 04:24:14 PM
()

Last year's European elections in Pays de la Loire. Purple is Philippe de Villiers, orange is Sylvie Goulard (MoDem), yellow is Jacques Généreux (FG), and white (in that small town in northern Sarthe that's a tie) is Brigitte Neveux (FN).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 04:49:30 PM
Good job!

The UMP's dominance overall hides some details about the Greenies (they're obviously strong in urban areas, where the UMP only won because of the division of the left's vote). The congregation of Green communes in Loire-Atlantique is party suburban but its also all around Notre-Dame-des-Landes where they want to build the controversial airport.

The town won by the FG is Allonnes, a working-class Renault-driven suburb of Le Mans and PCF stronghold.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on April 09, 2010, 04:16:36 PM
I found this map in Siegfred's famous book on western France (which I'm reading on-and-off, it's quite heavy) quite interesting and lol-worthy.

()

Compare it to a map of the MPF/de Villiers in Vendée, like the Euros map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 18, 2010, 11:09:06 AM
Just want to put it out there that results by commune of the 1995 presidentials and 1997 legislative are available on teh interwebs now:

1995: http://www.politiquemania.com/presidentielles-1995-commune.html
1997: http://www.politiquemania.com/legislatives-1997-commune.html

On a side note, Politiquemania (which is, ftr, the best forum/website on French politics there is; for starters there are no MPF-FN trolls!) also has a list of regional councillors and general councillors available, with accurate party labels.

regional: http://www.politiquemania.com/conseillers-regionaux.html
general: http://www.politiquemania.com/conseillers-generaux.html

Finally, on my side, I hope to be making some maps of the 1951 and 1956 elections soon enough and I might throw some comparisons in key communities between 95 and 07.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on September 11, 2010, 02:10:47 PM
for those of you who speak French and have JSTOR access (if you don't, I can get it for you); this article on the electoral sociology of French Protestants is good stuff: http://www.jstor.org/stable/30124976?seq=1

A comparison of various excerpts from Siegfried's 1910 stuff on the topic and the 2007 results in Ardeche are funny.

It also offers an answer to an old question I had concerning the left's strong showing in the Bas-Rhin in 1919 (see here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2007_11_07_09_8_29_50.png). It seems, in the Bas-Rhin atleast, that the left's base was in the 4 Protestant majority cantons (Sarre-Union, La Petite Pierre, Drulingen and Bouxwiller) and in 1924 also in Soultz-sous-Forets (which my archives indicates is a Protestant canton).

I personally find the voting patterns of rural Protestant enclaves in France one of the most fascinating topics in French electoral sociology, especially with the distinction in the voting patterns of the Calvinists compared to those of the Lutherans. I don't know if I've ever written anything about Alsatian Protestantism and its voting patterns, but it's a quite interesting topic and is even interesting in 2007 (it involves finding the differences in rural Alsace's universal conservatism and right-wing vote).

Of course, if anybody has anything on the Jewish vote in France, I'd be very interested.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 12, 2010, 02:37:52 PM
Great article! I'll try to muddle through with my limited French.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on September 19, 2010, 04:43:47 PM
More interesting articles and stuff:

This one on EE is actually very good and goes beyond the traditional analysis: http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/240-1-document_file.pdf

One of the best analyses of the geography and sociology of Corsican nationalism (using regionals data): http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/237-1-document_file.pdf

and a gift:

()

which comes from this 36-page analysis of French catholics:
http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/238-1-document_file.pdf


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Verily on September 19, 2010, 04:48:29 PM
A "percentage of Catholics who are practicing" map would be interesting (very high in a few spots, very low in a few others).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on September 20, 2010, 04:27:23 AM
A "percentage of Catholics who are practicing" map would be interesting (very high in a few spots, very low in a few others).

You can mix the 2 maps.

In the 2nd map, Gers, Gironde, Lot, Gard, Var, Hautes-Alpes are ridiculously high. Probably also Tarn, Aude and Alpes-Maritimes.
Yvelines, Hauts-de-Seine and Paris are very interesting and really accurate, I think.

Of course, "practising" is ridiculously high everywhere, as going to a church, just because of relatives' baptisms, marriages and deaths and just for Easter and Christmas, isn't practising....

As for the Protestants and their voting patterns in rural areas, it's all the funnier as spreading of Protestants and Catholics very locally has a random history: some local lords even switched many times during Religions Wars....
And all the funnier when you know how French people are no longer religious at all now, whether Protestant or Catholic.
In fact, many of these patterns stem from parents' votes, nothing else. But, as it take many generations to change, especially in rural areas, it's funny to "read" religious lines in local maps.
Fascinating, indeed.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on September 28, 2010, 06:13:40 PM
I decided to look at which cities offered electoral results for cantons and polls inside city limits... Rennes has a great site, as does Lyon and Nice. Here's Rennes:

2010 regionals (runoff):
canton de Rennes-Bréquigny: PS 56.31, UMP 22.06, GRN 21.62
canton de Rennes-Centre: UMP 39.31, PS 38.54, GRN 22.15
canton de Rennes-Centre-Ouest: PS 47.35, UMP 28.94, GRN 23.71
canton de Rennes-Centre-Sud   : PS 50.07, GRN 25.11, UMP 24.82
canton de Rennes-Est: PS 46.92, UMP 28.38, GRN 24.71
canton de Rennes-le-Blosne: PS 61.44, GRN 20.3, UMP 18.26
canton de Rennes-Nord: PS 49.82, UMP 27.59, GRN 22.59
canton de Rennes-Nord-Est: PS 47.93, UMP 32.08, GRN 20
canton de Rennes-Nord-Ouest (parts within the commune of Rennes only): PS 58.66, UMP 21.55, GRN 19.79
canton de Rennes-Sud-Est: PS 54.83, GRN 24.63, UMP 20.54
canton de Rennes-Sud-Ouest: PS 49.04, UMP 25.87, GRN 25.09

map: http://www.rennes.fr/fileadmin/user_upload/Telechargements/Cantonales_elections2008_carte_exhaustive.pdf


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 25, 2010, 06:55:13 PM
I'm making a few first-round maps by commune for the 2007 election, and I'd be willing to make some on request. Keep in mind that they take forever and I am unlikely to do Pas de Calais/Nord.

I also can do strength maps for any candidate in departements beginning with A, Bouches-du-Rhone, most of Ile-de-France and Pyrenees-Atlantiques.

Here are two to begin:

Eure

()

Lozere (The one orange commune, Saint-Maurice-de-Ventalon, was won by Bove)

()

Should I continue?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 25, 2010, 07:01:43 PM
yes!

I hope you're using Geoclip as a major source for this instead of the Interior Ministry, that would make your life way easier. I can pull together a basic analysis for most of the departments, btw, if anybody's interested.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 25, 2010, 07:40:16 PM
Any requests?

(And yes, I am using Geoclip, thank you. I don't know what I would do without it.)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 25, 2010, 07:43:11 PM
Any requests?

(And yes, I am using Geoclip, thank you. I don't know what I would do without it.)

I'm biased, but the Breton departments and the Pyrenees-Atlantiques would be great. Especially the latter, actually.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 25, 2010, 07:46:35 PM
You will have Pyrenees-Atlantiques (big swathes of yellow await!) tomorrow.

I will do Bretagne afterwards.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 26, 2010, 04:56:12 PM
Here is Pyrenees-Atlantiques. Enjoy.

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 26, 2010, 07:13:47 PM
...and Finistere:

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 27, 2010, 07:57:30 AM
Lozère and Finistère are very... neat and unsurprising, but, for these reasons, very interesting.

Gironde, Ille-et-Vilaine and Yvelines would be great !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 27, 2010, 10:31:16 AM
I will do those soon.

For now, here's a hideous map of Lozere: First round, 2002

Blue: Chirac (all >10% communes are colored as if they were >20% communes, because the >10% colors for blue and green are nearly identical)
Purple: Le Pen
Red: Jospin
Green: Saint-Josse (!)
Orange: Various communists (Besancenot, Hue and Laguiller all won at least one commune)


()

Hashemite, where are you getting those commune maps that you've used for your 2007 second round results?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 27, 2010, 11:11:38 AM
Hashemite, where are you getting those commune maps that you've used for your 2007 second round results?

Geoclip. I get a blank map up and take a screenshot of it.

Saint-Josse winning communes isn't remotely surprising. He won a lot of communes, and, on the topic of that and 2002; a map of Somme, 2002 would be extremely interesting.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 27, 2010, 12:31:07 PM
Hilarious, not hideous. Lozere is wonderful; three quarters of the population re-fight the Wars of Religion every election, and the rest fight over environmental issues.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Serenity Now on October 27, 2010, 01:48:22 PM
Great maps homelycooking! If you get the chance please could you do Dordogne 2007 by departement? I ask as this is a part of France I'm very familiar with.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 27, 2010, 03:48:23 PM
I'd be happy to. Here's my request queue so far:

1. Yvelines '07: tonite
2. Somme '02: tomorrow, since it's huge
3. Dordogne '07: weekend
4. Ile-et-Vilaine '07: weekend
5. Gironde '07: weekend

Here's a few maps from BdR in the meantime:

'02 first round (yellow is Bruno Megret, orange is Hue)

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'02 second round (what a snore...)

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'07 first round

()



Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 27, 2010, 04:42:43 PM
Here's a map of the 1995 runoff in the 13:

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 27, 2010, 06:23:41 PM
Here is Yvelines '07, per request of big bad fab.

()

Next: Somme '02.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 28, 2010, 06:20:06 AM
I really like the Rambouillet forest which is of a fine darker blue ;D

And Trappes isn't an island of hot red any longer now, as many communes around the N12 are more and more on the left (helped by some "bobo" votes also...)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 28, 2010, 02:11:33 PM
Hashemite, you may need to wait another day for Somme '02. I'm pouring all my available time into it as it is. (but it looks amazing!) EDIT: done.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 28, 2010, 07:46:11 PM
()

Here is Somme '02, per request of Hashemite.

Blue: Chirac
Red: Jospin
Green: Saint-Josse
Purple: Le Pen
Orange: Hue (two communes in the far west of Somme) or Laguiller (the rest)
Yellow: Lepage (tied in two communes) or Bayrou (won one commune, tied in three others) or Madelin (won one commune, tied in one other)

Next: Dordogne '07, after I give my hand a rest


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 29, 2010, 08:34:27 AM
Great work, as usual, on that. Saint-Josse and CPNT has always had strong support in the Somme estuary, which has a bunch of hunters and le gibier d'eau. Saint-Josse even topped the poll in the two constituencies covering the estuary.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 29, 2010, 12:15:31 PM
Great maps homelycooking! If you get the chance please could you do Dordogne 2007 by departement? I ask as this is a part of France I'm very familiar with.

Here it is.

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on October 30, 2010, 08:23:59 PM
Here's one to hold you over while I do Pas de Calais/Nord '02.

Haute-Vienne '02 (Yellow: Bayrou)

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Serenity Now on October 31, 2010, 05:15:18 PM
Great maps homelycooking! If you get the chance please could you do Dordogne 2007 by departement? I ask as this is a part of France I'm very familiar with.

Here it is.


Lovely, thanks very much!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on November 04, 2010, 10:27:12 AM
Here's one to hold you over while I do Pas de Calais/Nord '02.

Haute-Vienne '02 (Yellow: Bayrou)

()

One example of the epic fail of Jospin.
Sure, Chirac is Corrézien but, wait, this is Haute-Vienne and this is the 2002 PCF...


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 07, 2011, 08:46:16 AM
just a random fyi: I've found stuff on 1927-1936 constituencies and I'm currently doing a 1936 map. I just don't have data on the boundaries in Marseille, Lyon and Lille (and Bordeaux, but it isn't so hard to work out); so unless anybody has information on infra-communal constituencies there I'll only have squares representing those areas.

And since my source also has constituencies for 1875-1877 or so, I'll also make a map of the 1877 elections soon-ish.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2011, 05:41:59 PM
I'm not sure how much attention this will spark, but I'm happy of what I've managed to do with this; and while I'm quite certain accuracy is not 100% it's as close as one can get to making a decent map of the 1936 election. France is a third-world crappy country when it comes to storing old election results, and the Third Republic is obviously not the regime which had clear-cut party lines and alliances. My source for the main bulk of the data is the National Assembly's online database, which stores profiles for all French parliamentarians since 1789 and often includes a brief biography of each taken from some old dictionaries of MPs which will more likely than not mention which constituency they represented. Constituency data comes from Alain Lancelot's Atlas des circonscriptions electorales en France depuis 1875, an old stale book which is great and which I managed to find at OttawaU's library. Constituency map comes from Salmon's website, which has those poorly edited and ugly maps of old constituencies. The main downfall here is that the Atlas does not have maps of infra urban constituencies in Lyon, Marseille and Lille (and Bordeaux, but it has only 4-5 so it's not that tough there).

()

The black line next to key indicates parties officially in the FP, though not all deputies for those parties supported the FP (especially the Radicals). A few of those are also parliamentary groups (USR, Gauche ind, IAP, GDRI, ARGRI, Agrarians) whose MPs were members of teeny parties or were indies. Most Non-inscrits tended to be righties, but there were a number of leftie NIs and I've tried to denote their partisan affiliation with a small square representing the party they were closest to. Brief notes on groups/parties follow:

PUP: 1930 splitoff of the PCF, largely, with some small SFIO factions in as well. I don't know for sure, but it might be Trotskyst.
USR: Parliamentary group for 3 parties to the right of the SFIO, the largest of which was the old perennial Republican Socialists. It also included other small neosocialist outfits. Marcel Déat was a member of the USR after winning a by-election in 1939 (he had been defeated by a Communist in Paris in 1936).
Frontiste: small fringe left-wing party with 2 mps. Its MP in Seine-et-Oise, Gaston Bergery, was a left-wing RadSoc (a "radical-Bolshevik") who later became a hardcore collabo. Its MP in Meurthe-et-Moselle, George Izard, became a resistant.
PRCP: Parti radical-socialiste Camille Pelletan, a left-wing splitoff of the RadSocs. Founded in 1934 by the left opposed to participation in the Doumergue cabinet. And, no, Camille Pelletan wasn't a member, the name is a reference to Pelletan who was left-wing Radical early in the century.
PJR: Christian left/social Christian party which supported the FP. Post-war, some joined the MRP and others later joined the PSU.
Gauche indépendante: parliamentary group including various pro-FP independents and small fringe one-man outfits

IAP: Indépendants d'action populaire, the name given this time to the Alsace-Lorraine regionalist grouping composed largely of folks from the UPR (Alsatian centre-right regionalists) and the URL (Moselle regionalists). Though largely from the right, the IAP also included a fair number of Alsatian Commies who tended to have been expelled from the PCF for their regionalism.
GDRI: Gauche démocratique et radicale indépendante, group of various power-hungry whores moderate heroes and centre-rightists which included a lot of independent Radicals (aka, right-wing Radicals)
PDP: Christian democratic party, predecessor of the MPR but probably to the MRP's right
ARGRI: Alliance des républicains de gauche et des radicaux indépendants, centre-right group linked to the AD. Flandin attempted to make the ARGRI the unique group of the AD and independent Rads, but he failed. The ARGRI did not include all AD mps (others in the GDRI, Gauche ind, IR) and not all ARGRI MPs were from the AD.
FR: For here, I've grouped all right-wingers from the RIAS, FR, IURN and IR groups under the "FR" label though not all of those coloured as FR were members of the FR (some might have been AD, or other things). The RIAS was the most "left-wing" in that it opposed the FR's shift to the right. The IRs were the most "right-wing" and a lot later joined a PSF group in 1938.
Agrarian: a few agrarian MPs, largely right-wing corporatist-populist rural deputies. Linked, I think, to the RIAS group.

The highlight of this map is Cannes voting Communist.

Depending on time and the availability of non-ambiguous guides, I am tempted to do a map of 1877.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: rob in cal on January 10, 2011, 10:34:31 PM
Niki, great job on the 1936 map.  Have you found anything about any of the by-elections held up till the outbreak of the war?  I've often wondered how France would have voted in 1939 or 1940 had war not broken out.  I do believe that Daladier had pushed thru legislation for proportional representation for the next election (passed in the summer of 1939) so Radicals would no longer depend on votes from either the left or the right for their seats. 


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 10, 2011, 10:44:29 PM
Niki, great job on the 1936 map.  Have you found anything about any of the by-elections held up till the outbreak of the war?  I've often wondered how France would have voted in 1939 or 1940 had war not broken out.  I do believe that Daladier had pushed thru legislation for proportional representation for the next election (passed in the summer of 1939) so Radicals would no longer depend on votes from either the left or the right for their seats. 

France used proportional representation now and again. I believe the 1919 election had a form of PR.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 11, 2011, 09:01:25 AM
Niki, great job on the 1936 map.  Have you found anything about any of the by-elections held up till the outbreak of the war? 

There were various by-elections, and most seem to have been held by the incumbent party (though I think the PCF picked up a few seats). Doriot lost his seat to the PCF in a by-election, and Marcel Deat won in Angouleme in 1939. There is no list, but a bit of searching (a lot, actually) on the AssNat's site and you could be able to make some sort of list.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 12, 2011, 04:13:53 AM
Wow, that's really impressive ! :o Congratulations for your work. :)

Many interesting things. Looks like Provence, Savoie and outer IdF were all left-wing strongholds at the time : considering how they vote today... Conversely, the northwest from Normandie to Vendée was solidly right-wing, of course. And what's up with all those radicals in Champagne ? Also, look at how much constituencies Paris had at the time : it probably made up for a far higher share of the population at the time. Same could be said for the East and the North, for obvious reasons.

Random funny thing : an enclaved constituency in Loiret ! :P


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 12, 2011, 08:47:21 AM
Congrats for this GREAT map.
Indeed, I have never seen it. For 1936, just Paris ! So, a brand new work !!!

Nothing especially unpredictable, really. All the trends Antonio noted are already known.

Sure, Antonio is right, Champagne and rural areas of the great East may be a bit surprising, but beware of what kind of Radicals were elected there.... (the same for Cantal)
And there may have been the effect of pacifism in these eastern and northern areas, greatly affected by WWI fightings.

Troyes and Rambouillet constituencies are probably funny surprises.
But maybe the right supported the PUP there ?

BTW, the PUP was more something between the Russian SR and Marcel Rigout... No Trotskyist, but a mix between internationalist pacifism and popular and very local French communism... :P ;D
Doriot was once affiliated, but that's not revealing (or it was but only for some months).

Current constituencies of Bayrou and Lassalle were interesting at that time...

And as for the PDP, yeah, it was mostly slightly to the right of MRP.
MRP is PDP with Resistance spirit in it.

(last year, when I've told you about a surprise I wanted to make to you, Hash, that was, mainly, this book, but, well, the person responsible for the library in my institution hasn't had enough time to make researches and I dropped it. Glad you've eventually been able to find it)

(there is also a book by Bernard Gaudillère, Atlas des circonscriptions électorales françaises, Droz, 1995, which is available at Chapitre, a French bookseller who has old books; currently available, but a bit expensive... and I don't even know what it includes
http://www.amazon.fr/Atlas-historique-circonscriptions-%C3%A9lectorales-fran%C3%A7aises/dp/2600000658/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1294839754&sr=8-3 )


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 12, 2011, 09:06:20 AM
The dominant patterns on the 1936 map seems to be religious practice. Pretty much all right-wing constituencies have above average religious practice, and left-wing constituencies of various shades pretty much all have lower religious practice. I was reading just yesterday something by Goguel where he mentions that Champagne realigned on the right starting with the first 1946 constitutional referendum, which makes a bit of sense. I don't know about landowning patterns there, but I suspect that it was small farmers + low religious practice which makes some perfect ground for Radicals. Before then, he insinuated that the right's base was basically on the fringes of the country (Alsace, Lorraine, Bretagne, inner west, Atlantic coast, Normandie, Euskadi, Flanders).

One thing which surprised me were the two Rads in Cornouaille around Cap-Sizun and Bro Bigouden. Probably some right-wing notable, although I recall Siegfried saying Cornouaille was not as conservative as Leon.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 12, 2011, 04:32:22 PM
Fascinating and excellent work :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 14, 2011, 07:26:49 PM
Posting these maps on a French forum (the only one not overrun by MPF/FN/PS-PCF hacks), a person was nice enough to contact me with information concerning a) the boundaries in urban areas of the 1927/1936 constituencies and b) results by canton of the 1978 election.

With his permission, I permit myself to repost his maps. You'll note that they're based on my big cantonal base map :)

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 14, 2011, 07:27:44 PM
And his big, fascinating and excellently-done work showing results of the 1978 election by cantons...

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 14, 2011, 07:35:10 PM
So Lille in 1978 didn't vote all that differently to how it voted in 1936.

Actually it's fascinating to see the extent of change in rural areas (in both directions) and contrast it with the basic stability in industrial and urban districts.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 15, 2011, 01:36:39 PM
Very interesting.

Wow, this map looks a lot "cleaner" than expected. :P


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2011, 11:09:15 AM
So, I've started looking at the results of the 1995 and 2007 runoffs in various places of interest to show the transitions between both elections, which had similar runoff results.

As always, I'll start with Gandrange
2007: UMP 50.2, PS 49.8
1995: PS 58.3, RPR 41.7

Freyming-Merlebach:
2007: UMP 55.6, PS 44.4
1995: PS 55, RPR 45

Saint-Amand-les-Eaux:
2007: PS 51.9, UMP 48.1
1995: PS 54.9, RPR 45.1 (the PCF was the first party, Hue won 20.2%)

Grenoble:
2007: PS 58.1, UMP 41.9
1995: PS 52.4, RPR 47.7

La Mure:
2007: PS 52.3, UMP 47.7
1995: PS 54.1, RPR 45.9

Rennes:
2007: PS 62.7, UMP 37.3
1995: PS 56.9, RPR 43.1

Saint-Gregoire:
2007: UMP 53.3, PS 46.7
1995: RPR 54.1, PS 45.9

Saint-Malo
2007: UMP 52.2, PS 47.8
1995: RPR 54.2, PS 45.8

Montaigu:
2007: UMP 55.3, PS 44.7
1995: RPR 60.9, PS 39.1 (a favourite son... was first with 24.7%)

I'll make a list of interesting working-class areas next to look up the results there. Then I'll look at filthy rich places. Then I'll look at poor suburbs like the Red Belt. Then I'll look at major cities.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 19, 2011, 04:55:23 PM
As always, I'll start with Gandrange
2007: UMP 50.2, PS 49.8

ROFLMAO

Waiting to see the 2012 results, though. :P


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2011, 06:45:11 PM
As always, I'll start with Gandrange
2007: UMP 50.2, PS 49.8

ROFLMAO

Waiting to see the 2012 results, though. :P

2010 results, were, for reminder: PS 55.76, FN 23.83, UMP 20.41. In the first round, the UMP polled 12.81% and third place.

Gandrange is a perfect example of a declining, very white and conservative working-class area which had been rather solidly left-wing in the past, voted FN in 2002 and where Sarkozy had an "exceptional" appeal in 2007. I like to track it as an microcosm of the general declining white conservative working-class vote, though perhaps it isn't a perfect indicator it's a good one.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 20, 2011, 10:26:04 AM
Another goodie which I was sent. Cantons of France, version 1980. That is, the map of the 1977 and 1979 series, which like 04/08 were left-wing series

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 20, 2011, 10:42:53 AM
Paris proper appears to be missing.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 20, 2011, 11:28:13 AM
Paris proper appears to be missing.

That'd be because Paris has no general council and no cantons. Its municipal council doubles-up as a general council.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 20, 2011, 11:55:19 AM
As always, I'll start with Gandrange
2007: UMP 50.2, PS 49.8

ROFLMAO

Waiting to see the 2012 results, though. :P

2010 results, were, for reminder: PS 55.76, FN 23.83, UMP 20.41. In the first round, the UMP polled 12.81% and third place.

Gandrange is a perfect example of a declining, very white and conservative working-class area which had been rather solidly left-wing in the past, voted FN in 2002 and where Sarkozy had an "exceptional" appeal in 2007. I like to track it as an microcosm of the general declining white conservative working-class vote, though perhaps it isn't a perfect indicator it's a good one.

Indeed, that's a rather emblematic place to watch. Places like Gandrange are one of the main reasons why Sarkozy is in trouble today.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 20, 2011, 12:05:24 PM
As always, I'll start with Gandrange
2007: UMP 50.2, PS 49.8

ROFLMAO

Waiting to see the 2012 results, though. :P

2010 results, were, for reminder: PS 55.76, FN 23.83, UMP 20.41. In the first round, the UMP polled 12.81% and third place.

Gandrange is a perfect example of a declining, very white and conservative working-class area which had been rather solidly left-wing in the past, voted FN in 2002 and where Sarkozy had an "exceptional" appeal in 2007. I like to track it as an microcosm of the general declining white conservative working-class vote, though perhaps it isn't a perfect indicator it's a good one.

Indeed, that's a rather emblematic place to watch. Places like Gandrange are one of the main reasons why Sarkozy is in trouble today.

The exact place where PanzerGirl is probably very high these days.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on June 28, 2011, 11:07:48 AM
()

An interesting map, to compare with PCF results of course.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on June 28, 2011, 11:11:31 AM
Not sure if I ever posted this here, but on the topic of eerily good correlations of demographics with voting patterns... take a look at the eerie similarity between private education in Vendee in 1910 and MPF strongholds:

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on June 28, 2011, 03:29:15 PM
I think we've already posted this indeed fascinating map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 02, 2011, 11:41:15 PM
Alright, here's an attempt at a new project. Hopefully, at the end I will have a complete map of the 2002 Presidential election by communes.

It will work like this: each department will have two maps. One shaded a by margin of victory, and another with a more basic color scheme to remove the ambiguities of the first.

The keys for each follow:
()
()

Here's Pyrénées-Atlantiques to start out with.
()
()

Those two dark red communes in the south were won by Besancenot. The one in the northeast is Hue.

Feedback appreciated.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 02, 2011, 11:44:37 PM
Gironde now.

()
()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 03, 2011, 05:52:28 AM
Beautiful maps ! Thank you Shilly ! :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on July 03, 2011, 08:18:20 AM
Great stuff. 2002 is an epic election because so many candidates won communes in the first round, while in 2007 communes not won by the big 3 are pretty damn rare (outside of Corsican villages which vote randomly).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 03, 2011, 05:26:13 PM
Rounding out Aquitaine.

Landes
()
()

Dordogne
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()

Lot-et-Garonne
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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 04, 2011, 08:08:38 AM
Amazing to see these small communes in Entre-Deux-Mers (between Garonne and Dordogne), my fatherland, in brown...

Probably stupid guys in lotissements , unable to take care of their children and so-called poor because they see the latest TV set at 1200 € as a "vital need" they can't immediatyely afford to buy,
and small wine producers (bad wine here... we're not in Médoc, Saint-Emilion or Sauternes....) "killed by taxes"... ::)

Fine to see a confirmation that the Garonne valley is indeed a stronghold of FN in Lot-et-Garonne (and Tarn-et-Garonne): fruit and vegetable producers, former Pieds-Noirs from Algeria, little merchants, former workers from some small industries spread in the campaigns (construction, small metal factories, agro-industry), etc.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 04, 2011, 08:37:33 AM
Ah, I'd always wondered why there were elevated FN percentages in that part of France. Thanks!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 04, 2011, 08:53:27 AM
Ah, I'd always wondered why there were elevated FN percentages in that part of France. Thanks!

Go to page 11 of this thread, for example.
And see maps of 1962 referendum, 1965 Tixier and 1956 Poujade: add them and you understand ;).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 04, 2011, 08:55:46 AM
Ah, I'd always wondered why there were elevated FN percentages in that part of France. Thanks!

Go to page 11 of this thread, for example.
And see maps of 1962 referendum, 1965 Tixier and 1956 Poujade: add them and you understand ;).

I was aware of some of the general issues, but its hard to understand anything without details. Which you just provided.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 04, 2011, 09:22:40 AM
A couple more.

Charente
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Charente-Maritime
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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 04, 2011, 05:40:21 PM
Poor Jospin, he was really down in Charentes... when you see the current cantonals map, it's really pinkier !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 05, 2011, 10:09:36 PM
Deux-Sèvres
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Vienne
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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 08, 2011, 04:45:55 AM
Vendée
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Loire-Atlantique
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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 08, 2011, 06:32:03 AM
No big surprises here, even if north/south divide in Deux-Sèvres is always impressive.
Everywhere, it's the city against rural communes.
CPNT small strongholds in pays de Retz and in Brière are funny.

Bretagne's departments, but also Sarthe, will be interesting (if I catch right your geographical path ;)).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 08, 2011, 07:35:15 AM
Just for you fab. ;)

Sarthe
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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 08, 2011, 08:30:50 AM
All these brown dots throughout the department are very interesting.
Both suburban areas, rural areas and the old and "harsh" remote zones in the northern part, which is the beginning of Perche (hence, also, CPNT votes).

Thanks, Shilly !

I think some of us are looking forward the next episodes ! ;)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on July 08, 2011, 08:33:47 AM
These maps are f---ing brilliant.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 08, 2011, 12:02:02 PM
^^^^


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 09, 2011, 07:21:52 AM
Maine-et-Loire
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Mayenne
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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on July 09, 2011, 07:56:43 AM
Will you be able to put all these together when you're done into a commune map for the whole of France?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 09, 2011, 09:34:05 AM
Will you be able to put all these together when you're done into a commune map for the whole of France?

I'm attempting as much, so stay tuned.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 09, 2011, 09:36:30 AM
I wish your crazy project the best of luck :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 10, 2011, 04:21:13 AM
Morbihan
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Finistère
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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 10, 2011, 10:24:46 AM
No big surprise here, except that Chirac isn't so strong around golfe of Morbihan.
Ille-et-Vilaine will be the funniest in Bretagne.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 12, 2011, 02:15:58 AM
Côtes-d'Armor

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()

A couple went for Mamère here.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 02:29:30 AM
Inner Trégor is leftist even in bad years.
Poor peasants, some industrial falls, despite telecoms factories and research centres in the 1960s-1970s.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on July 14, 2011, 03:37:14 AM
Ille-et-Vilaine

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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 28, 2011, 08:24:05 PM
I found some place which has results of old elections by old constituency, including the 1965 and 1981 presidential elections. Sadly, their results for 1974 are all wrong and all, but I'll email them. At any rate... here's two birthday presents:

()

()

The 1965 map is a new favourite of mine. The polarization on there is quite something. De Gaulle won upwards of 70-75% in the most fervent clerical areas.

I could do some constituency-results maps for any of the candidates in 65, 69 and 81 and I wager I could do the same for specific lists in the 79 and 84 Euros. Requests?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 29, 2011, 03:41:36 AM
I have 1974 numbers by old constituencies... but only on a big book or on old Le Monde papers :(

1965 is so neat: it's a real pleasure :D

Many trends of the 1980s and 1990s were already encapsulated in the 1981 result.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 29, 2011, 03:51:49 AM
:o Alsace-Lorraine... And the Northwest belt surrounding Brittany...

Indeed, it's pretty nice and extremely contiguous. I didn't imagine FRance was so polarize back then.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: republicanism on August 29, 2011, 04:05:39 AM

Why is the city of Bordeaux so conservative? It is an island of blue in a sea of red on the 1981 map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 29, 2011, 09:41:26 AM

Why is the city of Bordeaux so conservative? It is an island of blue in a sea of red on the 1981 map.

Money, but also a powerful conservative political machine (especially back then).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on August 29, 2011, 11:36:26 AM
:o at Paris 1965.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 29, 2011, 11:39:28 AM
It's funny how you have these random Mitterand holdouts even in the middle of overwhelmingly De Gaulle areas. Maps be great. I should do some more of my own...


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 29, 2011, 12:10:42 PM

Why is the city of Bordeaux so conservative? It is an island of blue in a sea of red on the 1981 map.

Money, but also a powerful conservative Gaullist political machine (especially back then).

Fixed.

Chaban-Delmas was Bordeaux mayor (and still efficient at the time... it didn't last after his premiership in 1969-72).

And remember that de Gaulle's maps were always marked by WW2: the Atlantic Coast (Landes is far more "surprising" for our nowadays eyes than Bordeaux) overvalued de Gaulle, but because it's the map of German occupation !

Yes, de Gaulle's maps were: German occupation in 1940-42 plus conservative Massif Central and Lyonnais.
For many people in these regions, de Gaulle was and remained a myth.

Of course, the South was also occupied after November 1942, but this occupation was more out of necessity, with a sparsed military presence or just units which rest after periods on the Ost Front. So, the occupation in the South wasn't the same.
And, cnversely, Resistance wasn't organized in the same way in North and South (i.e. north and south of the demarcation line): de Gaulle and his envoys were far more important in the North.

()



As for small red dots in the North, Al, well, they don't really weaken the great homogeneity of de Gaulle' map: how could Saint-Nazaire, Lorraine's mines and steel areas, Sochaux-Montbéliard, Nord-Pas-de-Calais coal mines, industrial areas of Le Mans and Seine around Rouen,  have voted in a different way than for Mitterrand ?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 29, 2011, 03:30:04 PM
Money, but also a powerful conservative Gaullist political machine (especially back then).

Fixed.[/quote]

Like there's a difference :P

Quote
As for small red dots in the North, Al, well, they don't really weaken the great homogeneity of de Gaulle' map: how could Saint-Nazaire, Lorraine's mines and steel areas, Sochaux-Montbéliard, Nord-Pas-de-Calais coal mines, industrial areas of Le Mans and Seine around Rouen,  have voted in a different way than for Mitterrand ?

It would have been even more surprising than De Gaulle sweeping Paris City and Lille, of course. But it still looks slightly amusing :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 29, 2011, 04:06:28 PM
Money, but also a powerful conservative Gaullist political machine (especially back then).

Fixed.

Like there's a difference :P
[/quote]

There wasn't a difference regarding Massif Central or Nice, of course. But in some other regions like Gironde, and regarding Chaban, there was a difference: participation and some other social ideas of gaullism weren't fake, even if 1965 was already late in the history of gaullism :P.

Bordeaux and Gironde had an old conservative bourgeoisie, for sure, but local right politicians weren't so much conservative (except in the Medoc).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 30, 2011, 01:21:25 PM
more cool stuff by old constituencies:

Rocard in 1969:
()

and a very interesting map of the 1979 EU elections (UDF 27.6%, PS 23.5%, PCF 20.5%, RPR 16.3%)
()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on August 30, 2011, 01:40:58 PM
It is me, or the Rocard 1969 maps looks like much more late maps for the PS?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 30, 2011, 02:38:43 PM
It is me, or the Rocard 1969 maps looks like much more late maps for the PS?

That's actually an interesting comment. The overlap isn't entirely there (the mining belt of the Nord, Strasbourg, Limousin, old SW, Allier etc), but there are the signs of the future evolutions of the PS. It makes sense given that the PS' electorate has been gentrified significantly in recent years with the left-wing leanings of the new middle-classes, professionals and bobos. The PSU's base being partly students, future professionals and future bobos in their revolutionary phase, it makes sense.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on August 30, 2011, 04:54:31 PM
Starting up the 2002 project again.

Manche
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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 31, 2011, 04:03:50 AM
Wow, the Paris Metro really liked Rocard.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 31, 2011, 06:16:35 AM
It is me, or the Rocard 1969 maps looks like much more late maps for the PS?

That's actually an interesting comment. The overlap isn't entirely there (the mining belt of the Nord, Strasbourg, Limousin, old SW, Allier etc), but there are the signs of the future evolutions of the PS. It makes sense given that the PS' electorate has been gentrified significantly in recent years with the left-wing leanings of the new middle-classes, professionals and bobos. The PSU's base being partly students, future professionals and future bobos in their revolutionary phase, it makes sense.

^^^^
I couldn't have answered in a better way ;).

It's a map of "anticipation"....
Finistère and areas around Rennes, Nantes, Angers, Caen, Dijon, departments like Doubs or Oise, the 3rd ring around Paris.
Niort and the influence of complementary health insurance companies (mutuelles) set there is fascinating.

Of course, there is also the signs of some local bigwigs (Dubedout in Grenoble and Isère).

And, as I've said it 2 or 3 years ago, it's also the future maps of Rocard inside the PS, when you see so different places as Gers, Orléans and Haute-Marne ! (except maybe for Puy-de-Dôme and Caen).

Like Bouchardeau 1981, Juquin 1988 or some Le Pen results, it's really an enjoyable map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on September 03, 2011, 11:06:40 PM
Calvados
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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on September 04, 2011, 03:31:27 AM
What's with the leftwing vote east of Caen? What's the tradition here?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on September 08, 2011, 09:02:41 PM
Orne
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()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2011, 08:28:41 PM
I contacted the CDSP and they fixed their 1974 results!

So, before I get drowned in other things, a few maps:

The obvious results of the runoff
()

But how can I do without a map for my political mentor and idol, the late great Jean Royer?
()
I know my strength map usually have 6 categories, but Royer is too great to get only 6, so he gets 8. If you don't like this, you're a bunch of young sexual deviants!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2011, 08:43:03 PM
And a final goodie!

()

'progressives' were right-wingers who weren't as reactionary as the 'conservatives' (a lot of which were monarchists). The 'republicans' were rather right-wing by then too.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on October 05, 2011, 09:49:34 PM
Royer's map is wonderful exemple of friends and neighbours, on a large scale.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 06, 2011, 01:57:47 AM
1974 is really another time...

The 15th arrondissement of Paris has always fascinated me in the first half of the 20th century: so socialist, when you see what it is now.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 02:47:24 AM
Hash, your contributions to this thread are just unvaluable. Those maps are fascinating, especially the last one. :) I could stay hours watching it. :D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 07, 2011, 02:33:36 AM
Royer's map is wonderful exemple of friends and neighbours, on a large scale.

Chaban's one was too.

I find it interesting to see that rural plateau in Doubs (the Siberian Jura, if you wish ;D) is a "stronghold" for Royer, sort of. Something with craftsmen (wooden toys, among other small and local activities), small artisans ?

And the 7th and 8th arrondissements in Paris, too: probably the phenomenon of building , like Edouard Frédéric-Dupont, the long-time mayor and MP for 7th arrondissement.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 12, 2011, 04:02:06 PM
randomly fell across this really interesting synthesis map of the political typology of western France as laid down by Siegfried in 1913.

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 12, 2011, 05:45:32 PM
Could you send it to me by mail ? It's hardly readable but seems absolutely fantastic.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 27, 2011, 09:50:17 AM
More old maps

Tixier in 1965

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Dumont in 1974

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the Greenies in 1979

()

Any specific requests? I can pretty much do anything, within reasonable limits.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 27, 2011, 11:37:07 AM
If you want a really grand OTT project, then you could do worse than whichever candidates from 1969 you've not done yet.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 30, 2011, 09:29:06 AM
Marcilhacy 65
Defferre 69
Juquin 88
Bouchardeau 81
Garaud 81
Madelin 02
Boutin 02

but you've probably done some of them already.

Oh, Pasqua-Villiers in European elections of 1999 would be very fine !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 30, 2011, 11:36:02 AM
Madelin and Boutin were done and are probably hidden in this thread somewhere, but I could re-do them. I've just revamped all my constituency base maps since 1958.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 30, 2011, 06:13:41 PM
1974 is really another time...

The 15th arrondissement of Paris has always fascinated me in the first half of the 20th century: so socialist, when you see what it is now.

I should add that there was a big Citroën factory in the 15th arrondissement.
But don't know if workers live nearby. That's probable though.
Never done any research on this.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 30, 2011, 06:17:28 PM
1974 is really another time...

The 15th arrondissement of Paris has always fascinated me in the first half of the 20th century: so socialist, when you see what it is now.

I should add that there was a big Citroën factory in the 15th arrondissement.
But don't know if workers live nearby. That's probable though.
Never done any research on this.

Paris was far more proletarian in 1910 or so, though less than in the 1840s of course.

I have Marcilhacy done, but I'm doing something interesting quickly re: 1988 and 2007.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 30, 2011, 07:20:12 PM
1974 is really another time...

The 15th arrondissement of Paris has always fascinated me in the first half of the 20th century: so socialist, when you see what it is now.

I should add that there was a big Citroën factory in the 15th arrondissement.
But don't know if workers live nearby. That's probable though.
Never done any research on this.

If this is the first half of the twentieth century then, yes, they would have done. It was the same everywhere; manual workers could not afford to live more than a certain distance from their place of work. This is why (or one of the main reasons why) you had the development of occupational communities even in big cities.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 30, 2011, 09:38:44 PM
Why was Paris proper so much more blue in 1974?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on October 31, 2011, 12:57:53 PM
Grenelle was very much a proletarian quarter until the 50s at least.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 31, 2011, 07:39:25 PM
Two new maps on the ever-fascinating and woefully underexploited topic of swings:

()

()

Remarks:
-Fascinating but not shocking how this is basically an extended Le Pen map of the 21st century...
-The red constituencies where Royal (47%) did better than Mitterrand (54%) are interesting
-Royal really, really sucked balls in Alsace
-Sarkozy did really crappy in the Viscount's constituency (+10% for the left)
-Royal did really well in Bayrou's turf in the runoff
-The Chiraquie blob is really like some huge hole in the second map
-Kind of interesting how the Vosges didn't swing as much to the right as the rest of the east. Any theories?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 01, 2011, 05:03:32 AM
Awesome stuff ! :) The trends are quite striking, even though I find the map key in the second map to be a bit too "dark". Anyways, the "moderate west"/"popular east" is very striking.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on November 04, 2011, 06:57:15 PM
verty impressive work !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on November 04, 2011, 06:58:00 PM
i've made a work for the 1902 election, but i can't post without have posted 20 messages


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on November 04, 2011, 07:01:50 PM
I made a strong search about the results BY PARTIES on 1902 elections (results by seats bear me).

So they are :

FR    19,40 (Republican Fédération, right-wing of the opportunist-republicans)
PRR    17,12 (Republican-Radical Party, left-wing of the global républican party, and right-wing of the Radical Party)
ALP    16,00 (Popular Liberal Action, heirs of the defunct monarchist conservative Right)
PN    13,02 (miscellaneous nationalists, antisemitics, bonapartists, socialists-nationalists, etc.)
ARD    12,78 (Democratic Republican Alliance, left-wing of the opportunists republicans)
PRS    10,12 (Radical-Socialist Party, left-wing of the global republican party, and left-wing of the Radical Party)
PSF    7,87 (French Socialist Party, right-wing of the socialist party, lead by jaurès)
PSdF    2,49 (Socialist Parti of France, left-wing of the socialist party, lead by Jules Guesde)
royalistes    0,5
divers    0,7


the parties can be easy divided in 2 blocs : the ministerials and the "antiministerials". Ministerials are parties who support the defence of the parlementarian republic, and antiministerials, who are against.

FR is "antiministerial", but seriously, i think in case of very serious peril, FR would have contribuct to save the 3rd Republic



By family of thinking  :

32,18 % for the old opportunists republicans
27,24 % for radicals and radical-socialists
29,52 % for miscellaneous rightists (royalists, nationalists, conservatives)
10,36 % for the socialist party



all maps show france divided in 4 parts. More green the departement is, more the party is strong. More red the departement is, more the party is weay. (grey : no candidatures for the party)

Republican Federation
()

Radical Party
()

Rightist France (royalists, nationalists, conservatives)
()

rightist fight : royalists+conservative (grey-gold) vs nationalists+bonapartists (green)
()

Socialist Party (Guesde + jaurès)
()

old opportunist party (ARD+FR)
()

PRR+PRS
()

ministerials (red-pink) vs antiministerials (green)
()


moderate (PRR, PRS, FR, ARD) (green) vs extremists (PN, ALP, PSF, PSdF, royalists) (pink-red)
()

relative strong places for each party
red : PSF or PSdF
orange : PRS
yellow : PRR
light blue : ARD
blue : FR
kaki (don't know english name) : catholic conservatives
dark green : nationalists
()




Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2011, 07:13:57 PM
Khaki, so it's basically the same.

Welcome to the forum, btw.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on November 04, 2011, 07:18:18 PM
The ALP was basically the party of the Ralliés, the less reactionary conservative Catholics who rallied the Republic in between the 1890s and 1901. The monarchists and ultra-reactionaries disliked them.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 05, 2011, 04:13:59 AM
Welcome to the forum, Colbert. :) And thank you for these interesting maps.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on November 05, 2011, 04:59:18 PM
i would try to make politico-genealogic trees. Could someone tell me how make that? ;)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 12:03:03 PM
Epic map time

()

Magic of right-click does wonders.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2012, 12:08:51 PM
What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 12:09:23 PM
:D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 12:12:47 PM
What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

You mean the Garonne valley?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2012, 12:16:20 PM
What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

You mean the Garonne valley?


I think it is the dark blue area slightly to the north (east ?) of Toulouse.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 12:37:20 PM
What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

You mean the Garonne valley?


I think it is the dark blue area slightly to the north (east ?) of Toulouse.

You're referring to two regions, seemingly.

1. The Garonne valley (Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, parts of Gironde). It is a low-lying valley area. In terms of agriculture, the area around Blaye and Libourne is wine country (though not of Medoc quality); the rest is largely fruits and polyculture. The whole area has attracted a lot of pieds-noirs and in general the population are largely lower middle-class employees or shopkeepers or light manufacturing independent working-class. The FN does really well here, and they're the type of right-wing FN electorate which Sarkozy did really well with in 2007. Some more clerical areas, but still largely dechristianized. If you go into the Tarn, you get similar demographics in a good number of the blue regions but the area around Mazamet is a Catholic working-class area.

2. The Aubrac/pays d'Olt, the Grands Causses, Margeride, the Saint-Flour plateau (Aveyron, Lozere, Cantal). It is the deepest blue area. Basically clerical Catholic isolated agricultural areas (largely cattle herding - milk and meat, the most right-wing of all farmers).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 23, 2012, 12:58:51 PM
Glorious map of glory is glorious.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 01:04:48 PM
Time for epic map 2

()

So, yeah, 9 candidates won at least one canton. Against 4 in 2007 and likely 6 in 1995.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 01:11:56 PM
Saint-Josse won so many cantons ? ??? ??? ??? ROFL.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on February 23, 2012, 01:12:39 PM
4 in 2007?
Who is the fourth one?

Antonio, Saint-Josse got like 20% in Somme, no?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 01:18:15 PM
Saint-Josse won so many cantons ? ??? ??? ??? ROFL.

It's not unsurprising. In its heyday, CPNT had some very strong support in certain types of rural areas, like the Somme estuary or the Medoc. I should do a map of his results by canton.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 01:23:02 PM
Yeah, but it's pretty rare to do so well with only 4% of the vote. Talk about extreme concentration of the vote...

Anyways, this map is absolutely awesome.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 01:25:13 PM
Yeah, but it's pretty rare to do so well with only 4% of the vote. Talk about extreme concentration of the vote...

Anyways, this map is absolutely awesome.

He won like 0.5% in every major city, so if you'd exclude all large cities from the calculations, he likely won nearly 10%.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 23, 2012, 06:20:14 PM
Epic map indeed: you should print them on T-shirts, posters, napkins, etc... ;D

With the results by arrondissements in Paris, it would be even greater: after all, it's the territory inside which municipal counsellors and, hence, general counsellors of Paris are elected.

But I'm a bit ashamed to dare to write this after so big a work and so wonderful a map you've done: it's almost Art ! No exaggeration in this !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 07:14:12 PM
Epic map indeed: you should print them on T-shirts, posters, napkins, etc... ;D

With the results by arrondissements in Paris, it would be even greater: after all, it's the territory inside which municipal counsellors and, hence, general counsellors of Paris are elected.

But I'm a bit ashamed to dare to write this after so big a work and so wonderful a map you've done: it's almost Art ! No exaggeration in this !

I second Fab's post.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 07:39:18 PM
Yeah, I wanted to do by arrondissements, but my base map (ripped off from Geoclip and pasted together into a single huge base map) didn't include them.

I can do cantonal maps for any candidate in 2002 or 2007, any major party in the 2009 EU elections or major lists in the 2010 regions, any major party in the 2007 legislative elections. So if you have requests, it'll give me a pass time.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on February 23, 2012, 08:42:28 PM
Time for epic map 2

()

So, yeah, 9 candidates won at least one canton. Against 4 in 2007 and likely 6 in 1995.


If I had a well count, robert hue win only one canton()


i had not find taubira and megret's cantons


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 09:21:37 PM
Hue won 4 cantons, three of them are too tiny to be seen. Megret won Vitrolles. Taubira, in metro France, won a canton in Haute-Corse.

Keep in mind that these are not the 'official cantons' - they're Insee's statistical cantons which do not include subdivided cities (infra-urban cantons). Therefore, results presented by Salmon (http://geoelections.free.fr/France/2002P1/cand_maj.PNG) may differ as he uses official cantons.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on February 23, 2012, 09:30:33 PM
Beautiful. Excellent color choice for Le Pen.

Two suggestions, though:

1. We need an all-communes map of the results! ;D
2. 5% scale it! ;D ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 09:35:34 PM
The 2007 runoff map is 5%-scaled ;D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on February 23, 2012, 10:00:37 PM
1. We need an all-communes map of the results! ;D

I've been working on this for a while. Far from finished, I know, but it might satisfy some.
()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on February 23, 2012, 10:05:00 PM
It's like looking into the face of God and seeing him smile back at you.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 24, 2012, 05:28:51 AM
Yeah, I wanted to do by arrondissements, but my base map (ripped off from Geoclip and pasted together into a single huge base map) didn't include them.

I can do cantonal maps for any candidate in 2002 or 2007, any major party in the 2009 EU elections or major lists in the 2010 regions, any major party in the 2007 legislative elections. So if you have requests, it'll give me a pass time.

I guess
Chevènement 2002
Madelin 2002
Besancenot 2007
would be the most interesting.

And, for fun,
Boutin 2002
Bové 2007
Villiers 2007.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2012, 07:10:38 AM
Yeah, I wanted to do by arrondissements, but my base map (ripped off from Geoclip and pasted together into a single huge base map) didn't include them.

I can do cantonal maps for any candidate in 2002 or 2007, any major party in the 2009 EU elections or major lists in the 2010 regions, any major party in the 2007 legislative elections. So if you have requests, it'll give me a pass time.

I don't know if it requires too much work for you, but I'd really apreciate if you could do the map I asked you some time ago. Basically, a map showing left (Jospin+Laguiller+Chevènement+Mamère+Besancenot+Hue+Taubira+Gluckstein), right (Chirac+Bayrou+Saint-Josse+Madelin+Lepage+Boutin) and far-right (Le Pen+Mégret) nationally tied with UNS. If it's too complicated to do, no problem. There are plenty of other interesting things to do. :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2012, 11:58:48 AM
Yeah, I wanted to do by arrondissements, but my base map (ripped off from Geoclip and pasted together into a single huge base map) didn't include them.

I can do cantonal maps for any candidate in 2002 or 2007, any major party in the 2009 EU elections or major lists in the 2010 regions, any major party in the 2007 legislative elections. So if you have requests, it'll give me a pass time.

I don't know if it requires too much work for you, but I'd really apreciate if you could do the map I asked you some time ago. Basically, a map showing left (Jospin+Laguiller+Chevènement+Mamère+Besancenot+Hue+Taubira+Gluckstein), right (Chirac+Bayrou+Saint-Josse+Madelin+Lepage+Boutin) and far-right (Le Pen+Mégret) nationally tied with UNS. If it's too complicated to do, no problem. There are plenty of other interesting things to do. :)

Doing it by canton would kill me, but by constituency is fairly simple:

()

Landes (rofl), Pyrenees-Atlantiques, Correze and the Somme estuary are f-ed up.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2012, 12:09:46 PM
Yeah, I wanted to do by arrondissements, but my base map (ripped off from Geoclip and pasted together into a single huge base map) didn't include them.

I can do cantonal maps for any candidate in 2002 or 2007, any major party in the 2009 EU elections or major lists in the 2010 regions, any major party in the 2007 legislative elections. So if you have requests, it'll give me a pass time.

I don't know if it requires too much work for you, but I'd really apreciate if you could do the map I asked you some time ago. Basically, a map showing left (Jospin+Laguiller+Chevènement+Mamère+Besancenot+Hue+Taubira+Gluckstein), right (Chirac+Bayrou+Saint-Josse+Madelin+Lepage+Boutin) and far-right (Le Pen+Mégret) nationally tied with UNS. If it's too complicated to do, no problem. There are plenty of other interesting things to do. :)

Doing it by canton would kill me, but by constituency is fairly simple:

()

Landes (rofl), Pyrenees-Atlantiques, Correze and the Somme estuary are f-ed up.

Thank you. :)

Indeed, it's a pretty strange map... How in the world does the right prevail over the left in so many southwest constituencies ? ???


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2012, 12:27:03 PM
Most certainly the fact of adding in Bayrou and Saint-Josse in the right's sum which wrecks matters. Both either had a favourite son appeal or performed abnormally strongly.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2012, 12:37:54 PM
Most certainly the fact of adding in Bayrou and Saint-Josse in the right's sum which wrecks matters. Both either had a favourite son appeal or performed abnormally strongly.

True, maybe the 3-way packing I proposed wasn't the right one... Still, can you tell me how many constituency each "side" won ? Since it's a 3-way tie, I wonder which of those has a geographic advantage.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on February 24, 2012, 12:39:18 PM
That map confirms my dislike of Eastern France.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 24, 2012, 01:21:07 PM
Fascinating maps. :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on February 27, 2012, 05:24:25 AM
It's like looking into the face of God and seeing him smile back at you.

;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: batmacumba on February 28, 2012, 10:10:09 AM

Don't include Isère on that thoughts.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 28, 2012, 12:34:55 PM

Isère is a fascinating department. In reality, it acts like two departments, one of which should be in western France and the other of which should be in Lorraine. Sud-Isère is great, Nord-Isère is awful (politically).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2012, 01:12:41 PM
I hope there are more of those maps to come.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on March 15, 2012, 02:32:52 PM
result of all left political families on all elections since the beginning of the 5th republic.

Considered as "left" all parties wich admitt themselve this qualification. Considered too, ecologists from 1974 to 1994 (and the division of this family between two wings). After 1994, only LV and EELV are considered as left.


translation france/US :

presidentielle= presidential
legislatives = congressional
regionales=gubernatoral
cantonales= dunno. County election ?
europeennes = election for european parliament


()



based upon those stats, I think again and again than the victory of Hollande would certainly not as easy as french polls are saying right now.


(and I don't speak about the so important legislative election of june)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 15, 2012, 04:34:40 PM
result of all left political families on all elections since the beginning of the 5th republic.

Considered as "left" all parties wich admitt themselve this qualification. Considered too, ecologists from 1974 to 1994 (and the division of this family between two wings). After 1994, only LV and EELV are considered as left.


translation france/US :

presidentielle= presidential
legislatives = congressional
regionales=gubernatoral
cantonales= dunno. County election ?
europeennes = election for european parliament


()



based upon those stats, I think again and again than the victory of Hollande would certainly not as easy as french polls are saying right now.


(and I don't speak about the so important legislative election of june)

I highly doubt the issue's that black and white.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2012, 05:23:02 PM
Yeah, these generalisations don't tell much.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on March 16, 2012, 06:36:06 AM
et voilà..., make pretty graphics, and collect only not very sympathetic comments

*sob*


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2012, 07:00:36 AM
et voilà..., make pretty graphics, and collect only not very sympathetic comments

*sob*

We apreciate your efforts but, often, one summary graph doesn't tell enough. Congrats for your work, of course.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on March 16, 2012, 05:49:50 PM
et voilà..., make pretty graphics, and collect only not very sympathetic comments

*sob*

We apreciate your efforts but, often, one summary graph doesn't tell enough.


a little, whatever, no ? The graphs show us than all lefts are rarely under the 50 %.

What make me perplexed is the fact than, after TEN years of UMP, TEN years of sarko, of nadine morano, of david douillet, and others inept right-wing politicians, the lefts are so weak at the first round

of course, on the 2e round, sarko could be beat, but it would be more an antisarko wave than a support for left ideas, no?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on March 17, 2012, 03:09:19 PM
Well, yes. Then again, the problem may be right here:
Quote
Considered as "left" all parties wich admitt themselve this qualification.

The pattern of MODEM voters for second rounds the last few years has not exactly been to support UMP en bloc.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on March 17, 2012, 05:50:47 PM
Well, yes. Then again, the problem may be right here:
Quote
Considered as "left" all parties wich admitt themselve this qualification.

The pattern of MODEM voters for second rounds the last few years has not exactly been to support UMP en bloc.


yes, i admitt this point, but I don't considere than all non-left block belong to a right-block.

The only (from my point of view) way to calculate force of the lefts is to objectivically aggregate all parties wich themsleves considere belong to left.


If I would had made a graph of aggregate of the rights, I would not had include MODEM


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on March 18, 2012, 04:40:13 AM
Yeah, not including them in such a historical graph makes sense... drawing conclusions from the graph for this year's presidential election without taking the factor into account is what doesn't. :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 29, 2012, 08:54:16 PM
Something big will be up tomorrow (hopefully). Stay tuned or take guesses.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2012, 09:17:34 PM
Looking forward ! :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 30, 2012, 10:25:18 AM
Here it is!

()

For 2007 comparisons: http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Cantons2007.png

Errors are possible, given that in a lot of places the Ministry has decided to troll us around by giving us 'inverted' results; this is the case in Lyon, Garches, Suresnes, La Garenne-Colombe, Romilly-sur-Seine, Chapelle-Saint-Luc and so on. I've self-corrected the obvious errors myself, some others might not be so obvious and appear wrong on this map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 30, 2012, 12:16:35 PM
This is great. :) It's interesting to compare the two maps.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 31, 2012, 08:07:14 AM
Wow well that's disappointing. Nobody seems to care :(


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on March 31, 2012, 08:31:13 AM
Oh, I do care.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 31, 2012, 10:04:54 AM
TEH FNS STOLESZ TEH VOTES FRUM TEH COMMISZ!

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on March 31, 2012, 10:06:49 AM
What exactly is that graph supposed to prove?

Now, if "selected working-class areas" was instead "PCF's best cantons of 1985"...


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 31, 2012, 10:14:58 AM
What exactly is that graph supposed to prove?

Now, if "selected working-class areas" was instead "PCF's best cantons of 1985"...

That there is a strong negative correlation between strong PCF performances and strong FN performances, which holds true not only for 2010 but also for 1995. And still holds true even if comparing the FN's 2010 performance with Hue's 1995 performance (or Hue 1995 with JMLP 2002). Everybody with half a brain has proven that the FN has tended to perform below average in most historic PCF strongholds, and that the FN's best performances in working-class areas are/were in those which were historically right-wing. Apparently the [lack of] correlations could be even starker at a precinct level.

'selected working-class areas' are a sample of 130ish communes including historic PCF strongholds, strongly PS areas and right-wing areas.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on March 31, 2012, 10:18:26 AM
That there is a strong negative correlation between strong PCF performances and strong FN performances, which holds true not only for 2010 but also for 1995.
Strongish. It's clearly not that great.
Quote
that the FN's best performances in working-class areas are/were in those which were historically right-wing.
Yes, that sounds reasonable to me.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 31, 2012, 10:25:27 AM
FTR, the correlation numbers are:
1995: -0.5557 (strong)
Jospin R2-Le Pen R1 1995: -0.5018 (strong)
2002: -0.484
2007: -0.0848 (the PCF numbers are likely way too tiny to be significant)
2010: -0.3164 (medium)
PCF 95-LP 2002: -0.4761
PCF 95-FN 2010: -0.36328


Well, obviously. Nothing is ever black and white, but pretty clearly the media's favourite theory that the PCF's decline is caused in large part by their voters going FN is fabricated bullsh**t. The correlation tends to be weaker in inner suburban working-class hinterland and far stronger in old, more ruralish, PCF working-class villages/mining towns and so forth.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on March 31, 2012, 10:32:35 AM
FTR, the correlation numbers are:
1995: -0.5557 (strong)
Jospin R2-Le Pen R1 1995: -0.5018 (strong)
2002: -0.484
Yes, that's definitely "strong" rather than "strongish" as far as political correlations go.

Nothing is ever black and white, but pretty clearly the media's favourite theory that the PCF's decline is caused in large part by their voters going FN is fabricated bullsh**t.
Journalists. Voting patterns. Need I say more? Next thing we'll be discussing how journalists have no clue about football support culture. Or how politicians have no clue about voting patterns. ;D

(The issue is ancient. I recently read a book about where the nazi voters came from.)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on April 01, 2012, 12:46:06 PM

Me too.
But it's rather depressing for me: it was the good old times, when the right was still pretty strong in inner West, in Ile-de-France or in all the Massif Central.
Corrèze is almost readable immediately in this map !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 01, 2012, 12:48:32 PM

Me too.
But it's rather depressing for me: it was the good old times, when the right was still pretty strong in inner West, in Ile-de-France or in all the Massif Central.
Corrèze is almost readable immediately in this map !

The 1995-2012 swing in Corrèze will be hilarious to see. ;D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on April 12, 2012, 07:18:35 PM
Even though this election year is boring as sh**tte, it certainly has led to some very welcome developments in French electoral geography. I've found a website which gives some fantastic result maps within major cities at a poll-by-poll level. To wet your appetite:

()

()

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on April 16, 2012, 10:44:05 AM
Nobody seems to care, but here's an interesting map:

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on April 16, 2012, 11:03:07 AM
Good idea. Does this correlate at all with the decline in the vote for Laguiller and the PCF?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2012, 11:11:16 AM
Nobody seems to care, but here's an interesting map:

()

This is very interesting ! Could you explain the geographic patterns ?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 16, 2012, 11:54:55 AM
Commies for Besancenot, I think.

(oh, and we all care a great deal. This is one of the best threads in the forum. It's just that it's not always easy to think up of an intelligent response to such extended prettiness).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on April 16, 2012, 03:50:56 PM
Nobody seems to care, but here's an interesting map:

()

This is very interesting ! Could you explain the geographic patterns ?

The main trends are a weakening of the Besancenot vote in urban areas, especially those which are bobo/well-off/middle class and a pretty important strengthening in rural working-class and urban working poor/suburban hinterland. Notice stuff like the 93, Lyon, Grenoble, Marseille, Lille or the Seine-Maritime. If exit polls are to be believed, he held only 40% or so of his 2002 vote in 2007, losing a significant amount of voters to Royal as part of the 'vote utile' but gaining a much more working-class base through people who had voted Arlette or Hue in 2002 or those Hue95>Arlette02 voters. The LCR, up until 2002, had attracted a much more bourgeois/revolutionary youth/bobo clientele than LO which has always had a fairly proletarian base. They totally lost it in 2007, might have started regaining it with the NPA in 2008, lost it to EELV in 2009.

btw, I picked up Goguel's atlas of sorts of elections between 1871 and 1956. Anybody up for some old maps?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2012, 04:01:10 PM
I see, Besancenot saw the erosion of his traditional bobo/trendy electoral base but benefitted from the regrouping of the "left of the left" under his name as a result of the utter failure of Laguiller/Buffet/Bové.

It's fun when you think about how pathetic the total "left of the left" vote was pathetic in 2007. The "useful vote" mechanic was indeed very strong at this time. So, quite ironically, there are probably a sizable share of Royal voters who won't vote Hollande this time (otherwise Mélenchon's standing is hard to explain). Which also tells us how much Hollande has taken away from centrists or center-leftist (Bayrou supporters in 2007).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 16, 2012, 06:19:44 PM
btw, I picked up Goguel's atlas of sorts of elections between 1871 and 1956. Anybody up for some old maps?

Always.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 01:48:58 AM
btw, I picked up Goguel's atlas of sorts of elections between 1871 and 1956. Anybody up for some old maps?

Always.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on April 17, 2012, 12:29:41 PM
Heh, your description made me go "wait a sec", look at the key, and laugh hard. I tend to automatically assume that red means decline on maps like that... :D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 04:10:31 PM
Heh, your description made me go "wait a sec", look at the key, and laugh hard. I tend to automatically assume that red means decline on maps like that... :D

I've always considered that, in a map, increase should be signified by reddish colors and decline by blueish color. I don't get why people tend to assume the opposite. I find it logical that hot colors are something positive and cold colors something negative.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on April 17, 2012, 05:28:05 PM
Meh, in all my cases the colours are pretty ideological. In an FN change map, I'd use shades of brown for an increase and blue for a decrease. In a UMP change map, I'm pretty sure I'd use red to show decrease.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on April 18, 2012, 02:53:34 AM
Added a bit more to my France 2002 map.

()
Right click to enlarge.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 18, 2012, 04:30:03 AM
This is infinitely beautiful. I long to see the final version !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on April 18, 2012, 07:15:26 AM
Great work, Shilly. Soon we'll have full commune maps of both the 2002 and 2007 first rounds. ;)

Also, how are you indicating ties on your map?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on April 18, 2012, 06:39:41 PM
I'm using stripes for ties, but they don't show up well on this map, due to the compression.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Leftbehind on April 18, 2012, 07:23:43 PM
Simply using .png's should help a great deal - but yeah, brilliant.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Shilly on April 18, 2012, 09:01:23 PM
OK, I got the PNG's size low enough to upload to the gallery. I've updated my previous post to show the new cleaner looking map, so check it out.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on April 18, 2012, 10:12:32 PM
Thanks for that. But I still don't see any striped communes.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on April 19, 2012, 03:47:46 AM
Meh, in all my cases the colours are pretty ideological. In an FN change map, I'd use shades of brown for an increase and blue for a decrease. In a UMP change map, I'm pretty sure I'd use red to show decrease.
Yeah, I figured that might be the reason. It does make sense, of course, and I've seen it done before.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on April 27, 2012, 07:14:31 PM
My greatest triumph as a political cartographer: the first complete map of France's communes in Atlas color scale (5%). Color-striping for tied communes.

Right-click and zoom in for enormous version.

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on April 27, 2012, 07:45:01 PM
Holy crap! Thanks a billion for that. Fascinating map - I hope a 2012 version (even more interesting...) is forthcoming ;)

But how am I suppose to live up to those standards? Might as well give up with my puny little constituency maps!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on April 27, 2012, 07:50:05 PM
Might as well give up with my puny little constituency maps!

Please don't!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 27, 2012, 08:15:59 PM
Holy crap, this is amazing!  :D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 27, 2012, 08:28:26 PM
Ah, now that's something.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 03:35:55 AM
Yet there's still much room for improvement my friend. >:D

What's grey? What's black? (Tie and three-way tie?) Where are the Pacific islands, the smaller Atlantic islands, the French abroad?

EDIT: The "grey" is actually the lightest Le Pen shade. My bad.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 05:12:15 AM
This is fantastic, Homely ! :D Congrats, you probably have done a hell of a job to reach this result.


I hope a 2012 version (even more interesting...) is forthcoming ;)

Indeed. The pinker, the better ! ;)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on April 28, 2012, 10:36:17 AM
Mille bravos !
Mazette... Ca, c'est de la carte !

Well, big congratulations. I've already stolen it and it's in my PC now.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on April 30, 2012, 11:39:34 AM
So from making that humungo-map, here's a little report on who won what in terms of communes:

Sarkozy: about 26,000 communes.
Royal: about 8,000 communes.
Bayrou: about 1,000 communes.
Le Pen: about 500 communes.
Besancenot: 0 communes. Tied for lead in two very small communes.
de Villiers: 4 communes. One in Vendee, one in Indre, two in Ardeche. Tied in three or four more.
Buffet: 13 communes. One each in Drome, Gard, Haute-Garonne, Pyrenees-Orientales, Ariege and Nord. Three in Correze and four in Corsica. Ties in two or three more, including one in Allier.
Voynet: 1 commune: Joucou in Aude (it's tiny). No ties.
Laguiller: 0 communes - the only candidate not to win or tie in any.
Bove: 4 communes. One each in Lozere, Drome, Hautes-Alpes and Ariege. Tied in one or two more.
Nihous: 2 communes. One in Manche, one in Herault of all places. I think he also managed a four way tie somewhere in Hautes-Pyrenees by winning two votes. LOL, rural France.
Schivardi: 1 commune: Mailhac in Aude, of course, where he's the mayor. No ties.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on April 30, 2012, 12:30:33 PM
And to go along with my analysis, a funny little map:

()

;D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on April 30, 2012, 12:31:16 PM
Hilarious.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 04:37:12 PM
My greatest triumph as a political cartographer: the first complete map of France's communes in Atlas color scale (5%). Color-striping for tied communes.

Right-click and zoom in for enormous version.





???

how many time have you use for this work of Titans ?


Impressive !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on May 09, 2012, 05:18:54 AM
Hash, have you a blank map with new legislative constituencies, by chance ? ;D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on May 09, 2012, 05:54:52 AM
Hash, have you a blank map with new legislative constituencies, by chance ? ;D

Indeed, I do:

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Insets for the overseas regions are also available.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2012, 01:22:51 PM
Hash, have you a blank map with new legislative constituencies, by chance ? ;D

Indeed, I do:

()

Insets for the overseas regions are also available.

Saved it. I'll try to fill it myself after the elections (in the hope to put as much pink as possible :P).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 09, 2012, 01:32:17 PM
Really, really nice work there. Is there a link to some sort of key map anywhere? Obviously most of the numbers will be the same as last time, but, you know.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on May 17, 2012, 08:51:50 AM
1st presidential election of france, 1848

maps with same color key (red = 22 best results, pink=21 others best results, light blue=21 not good results, blue=22 worst results)

BONAPARTE (nationalist, autoritarian, social-wing, free-trade) 74,33%
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CAVAIGNAC (conservative republican, right-wing of republican party) 19,81%
()

LEDRU-ROLLIN (radical republican, left-wing of republican party) 5,06%
()

RASPAIL (republican, socialist) 0,51 %
()

LAMARTINE (republicann centrist) 0,23%
()



Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on June 16, 2012, 07:30:03 AM
I'm not sure if anybody will care, but the 2005 referendum is really, really important in terms of voting patterns.

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(yes, this includes insets for the PLM arrondissements, Fab)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 16, 2012, 08:01:33 AM
Great job ! :)

For once, my canton voted the right way... :P


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on June 16, 2012, 11:08:17 AM
Wonderful !

Apart from big cities and rich bobos areas, only the rightist countryside is in green... but Mayenne's or Maine-et-Loire's divides are fascinating. Also these few cantons in Côte d'Or

Vivent les Chouans ! Vivent les Vendéens !


That said without any irony, in fact... :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2012, 09:33:33 PM
Here's a fun work-in-progress: 2012 runoff results for overseas people, by precinct/polling location as accurately as possible:

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Errors possible, in terms of assigning regions to a precinct/polling location because for some countries it's a bit unclear (hard to find a list of sub-national entities in each country and which polling place they belong to); in some cases (large cities) a bunch of precincts are averaged together.

Very fun patterns.

full size: http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/France2012.png


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2012, 09:42:35 PM
That's a fantastic project.

Can you zoom to the USA? I can't believe Vermonters voted for Sarko. :( :( :(


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 12, 2012, 09:09:12 AM
That's a fantastic project.

Can you zoom to the USA? I can't believe Vermonters voted for Sarko. :( :( :(

It seems like photobucket doesn't show the full view, unfortunately. Maybe when it's done I'll find a way to post the entire thing

How many French people actually live in Vermont? Like 2? Anyway, VT-NH-RI-ME and non-Cambridge MA voters had only a single precinct in Boston, and turnout there was like 18% (against 40% in Cambridge). Same thing for the 5 French people living in WI, IN, IA, MO and KS who had a precinct in Chicago where turnout was 14%.

In the US, Flanby won New Orleans (with nearly 60%), two precincts in NYC which apparently correspond to Brooklyn/Williamsburg (but lost NYC heavily because Sarko got 65-70% in Manhattan), Portland, 2/3 precincts in San Francisco ;), Berkeley and one of the 2 precincts in MontCo/PGC in Maryland.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Simfan34 on December 12, 2012, 11:26:01 AM
Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on December 12, 2012, 12:53:25 PM
Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?

It's high density suburbs.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 12, 2012, 01:47:36 PM
Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?

Uh, is this question for real? Because there's more population, obviously; even if cantons are badly malapportioned.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on December 12, 2012, 02:51:33 PM
Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?

Uh, is this question for real? Because there's more population, obviously; even if cantons are badly malapportioned.

Well, for an outside POW, someone could have through they were the equivalent of US counties.
Simfan: Cantons are the districts used for electing the departmental assemblies. They are the equivalent of State House districts, exept they were draw in the early 1800's and barely redistricted since then.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 12, 2012, 03:36:54 PM
That's a fantastic project.

Can you zoom to the USA? I can't believe Vermonters voted for Sarko. :( :( :(

It seems like photobucket doesn't show the full view, unfortunately. Maybe when it's done I'll find a way to post the entire thing

How many French people actually live in Vermont? Like 2? Anyway, VT-NH-RI-ME and non-Cambridge MA voters had only a single precinct in Boston, and turnout there was like 18% (against 40% in Cambridge). Same thing for the 5 French people living in WI, IN, IA, MO and KS who had a precinct in Chicago where turnout was 14%.

In the US, Flanby won New Orleans (with nearly 60%), two precincts in NYC which apparently correspond to Brooklyn/Williamsburg (but lost NYC heavily because Sarko got 65-70% in Manhattan), Portland, 2/3 precincts in San Francisco ;), Berkeley and one of the 2 precincts in MontCo/PGC in Maryland.

Ah, Ok, sorry. Since I didn't see the map very well I thought every state had its own precinct.

But if Hollande won SF, that's enough to me. :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 13, 2012, 03:55:20 PM
Here's the finished product; 5% scaled as per usual

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Facebook doesn't shrink it too small, so the larger version is pretty tolerable: http://sphotos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/459573_398811703528050_1496884130_o.png

Same comments about some of the approximate boundaries of 'precincts' in some countries, but still most boundaries within countries are accurate. I coloured in France itself with the actual results by region.

I'll be back with comments later.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2012, 07:07:51 PM
That's beautiful, congratulations.

There are many things I would like to have explained, but I don't know how to begin. ;) You should definitely go through all this stuff.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 13, 2012, 07:14:32 PM
That's beautiful, congratulations.

There are many things I would like to have explained, but I don't know how to begin. ;) You should definitely go through all this stuff.

Go ahead and ask, it will help me focus my observations better (and not forget anything)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2012, 07:26:24 PM
I don't have many specific questions, just interested in understanding the whole picture. What explains the divide in the US (Hollande strong in the West Coast and Louisiana, but weak in the Northeast), why Hollande swept most countries of Western Europe, why he did so well in the Middle East, what's behind the divide in African countries, etc...

Actually, it would be quicker to tell you what I think I do understand. South America seems to be closely correlated to wealth (plus the obvious Anti-Chavez effect in Venezuela), Canada has a rather logical divide, and Eastern Europe is understandably right-leaning.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on December 13, 2012, 07:28:46 PM
What sort of French expatriate lives or votes in Indonesia or Central Asia?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 13, 2012, 08:51:10 PM
Here goes:

In Canada, it's fairly logical. French people in Quebec aren't business-type expats, there are a lot of teachers or otherwise left-leaning people from France who wanted to settle in a similarly left-leaning and Francophone place. Hollande actually narrowly lost Ontario (which also includes MB and SK) outside Ottawa, the people in Toronto are probably more business types while the French community in the NCR include a lot of teachers. Calgary is also obvious, probably a bunch of business and oil people.

The US is fairly simple if approached from a wealth perspective. Hollande won basically the teachers, hippies and academics (Williamsburg, Berkeley, SF, Portland and this probably explains Louisiana and NM too). Otherwise, French people who choose to move to the US should be expected to be from right-leaning demographics (business, wealthy people) and right-wing themselves given the US' reputation in France. I will admit that Louisiana and NM being so strongly leftie (over 55%) is a tad surprising, but New Orleans probably doesn't draw many business types and the oil people are probably in Dallas or the rest of Texas which is really right-wing. In the Northeast, the French people I would expect are probably pretty wealthy and business-type people who live in Manhattan or NYC suburbia. Miami was over 80% for Sarko, which shouldn't be surprising, given that it probably draws some older heliotropic resort/coastal peoples who chose to move to a place like Florida to begin with. Las Vegas is probably similar, it shouldn't be too hard to think of who would move to a place like that. In the Bay Area, the tech people in the Silicon Valley and the wealthy people in the Bay suburbs being Sarkozysts isn't too hard to explain.

The 'resort' effect (plus maybe some French hotel owners) is also there in Mexico (Cancun was 61% Sarko), the Dominican (Samana was 75% Sarko), Bahamas (79%), Puerto Rico (67%) and Jamaica (60% Sarko). In contrast, French people who move to Cuba should be expected to be very leftie if you go live in a place like that (and, the Cuban government basically chased out foreign hotel owners and owns a majority share in most hotels, plus the foreign hotel owners are probably Spanish). Same thing in Nicaragua. I don't know if any hardcore French Chavistas moved to Venezuela, but if there are any it's probably drowned out by oil people.

In South America, yeah, wealth seems to be a big factor. Brazil is a nice example, Sarko won the country because he got over 60% in Sao Paulo and it shouldn't be hard to see who would move to SP. The divide in Ecuador and Bolivia is really interesting too. Paraguay is a bit weird, though.

In western Europe, it's not too surprising. In Spain, Sarko swept the resort people in Girona, Tarragona, the Balearics, Alicante and Malaga (and Tenerife); the French outside those places are probably more left-leaning teachers, students, academics and other assorted leftist demographics. Portugal is interesting, probably more resort types.

In Italy, the Sarkozysts are ski bunnies in Aosta and business types in Milan; Rome, Turin, the south etc probably have more teachers and other leftist demographics.

In the UK, Sarko won big with people in SW London (which extended into parts of southern England) - affluent business/entrepreneurial types living in affluent parts of the country; plus Aberdeen which is probably offshore oil (like Stavanger in Norway). The other parts of the UK and Ireland would naturally have less rightist business/entrepreneurial types, for example it's hard to see those types moving to Liverpool (over 70% Hollande) or Glasgow (69% Flanby).

In Germany, Sarko won Dusseldorf (probably business people) and Augsburg/Swabia (I guess affluent business types from Munich?) and Frankfurt and most of Bavaria/BW was close too. Hollande owned in the GDR and Berlin, over 75%; not too hard to imagine the type of people who would move there.

Belgium and Switzerland are basically rich people who don't want to pay taxes, obviously.

I actually found the Balkans interesting. I would have expected Montenegro and Croatia to be uber-Sarkozyst and I would have thought at least Serbia and maybe Slovenia might have had more business types (which are probably those who moved to Poland/Romania/Bulgaria/Russia etc).

In Algeria, Hollande won 85-90% of the vote and even if turnout was really low there, most voters there are binationals who have moved back to Algeria. Tunisia and Morocco have those too, and I would think the old countries in FWA would too; Tunisia and Morocco however also have a resort population - Sarko won Marrakesh and Agadir (Algeria, obviously, has no resort people). In Mali/Niger etc, you probably have a small population of teachers/humanitarians/some binationals with no business or oil people. Cote d'Ivoire is only different because you only have security mercenaries/a few business types left over since 2002/2010. Libya had 12% turnout, but French people living there now are probably mercenaries or oil people.

The divide in other African countries is quite interesting; Congo-Brazzaville is a really cool example of this. The Sarko types are oil people - Nigeria, Gabon, Pointe-Noire (Congo), Angola, mainland Equatorial Guinea. In the RDC, not a lot of voters and the business people might be Belgian instead. South Africa (and Namibia) is probably a bunch of business people again. In Madagascar, Sarko basically won the small resort places and tiny Mauritius is similar (Hollande won Port-Louis, got trounced in the rest of the island). In Zimbabwe, Mugabe probably chased out white business people and in the other east African countries it's probably a few teachers, humanitarians and so forth. Djibouti probably has a lot of military types.

Israel was over 90% Sarko, and I would think most are French Jews and the type who actually live in Israel must be even more hawkish and all that Jews in France. On the other hand, Hollande won 84% with the 70ish French voters in the West Bank; not hard to imagine those who choose to move to Palestine. Lebanon is interesting as well, Sarko won over 75% in eastern Beirut and Jounieh - probably some really right-wing Christian Lebanese dual citizens?

Iraq and Iran are surprising, given the Eastern Province in KSA and the Gulf states. Dubai, Qatar are probably due in large part to resort-type people, but Khobar, Bahrain is certainly due to oil (who the hell would live in those sh**tholes otherwise). Jordan has no oil, I guess Iraq's oil industry is run by Americans and Turkey also has no oil. Syria had like 2% turnout, because the precinct was in Lebanon (for obvious reasons...) I guess some pretty determined leftists drove out to Beirut to vote :)

In India, Flanby killed in Pondicherry where most French people live (I guess most are probably teachers or other leftist non-business types) while Sarko won pretty easily in Bangalore (probably the white businessmen in the tech industry). I would have expected Central Asian stans to be more Sarko (like Turkmenistan was), though I probably overestimated the number of business/oil types. Myanmar was surprising too, though maybe the businessmen didn't come yet. In Thailand, Sarko swept the resorts and Bangkok probably draws some affluent businessmen/entrepreneurs; like Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and of course China (and probably Australia). Vietnam has an interesting north-south thing going on, Hanoi was strongly leftie and Saigon was strongly Sarko but it's pretty understandable given the type of city Saigon is (afaik). Cambodia and certainly Laos probably don't have much business people there.

Japan and Korea is interesting, I would certainly have expected way more business people to be there; but I guess that since both are developed countries by now, you probably don't have the same number of foreign owners/business people/entrepreneurs that you have in China or parts of Africa. Probably draws more teachers or other left-leaning demographics instead.

Note: Moldova and Jeddah were tied; countries in gray have no embassies and no record of a voting station being opened (unlike other places which lack an embassy but still had a decentralized voting station, like the Bahamas or Barbados), but French people in those countries probably voted in the countries with an embassy responsible for their country (ex: Abidjan covers Liberia, Conakry covers Sierra Leone, Bern covers Liechtenstein, Jakarta covers East Timor).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 13, 2012, 10:30:58 PM
Thank you, that's fascinating and makes everything much clearer! I admit I had little to no idea what kind of expats lived where, apart from a few obvious cases.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on December 14, 2012, 12:42:23 PM

In India, Flanby killed in Pondicherry where most French people live (I guess most are probably teachers or other leftist non-business types)
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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 13, 2013, 05:51:44 PM
Bump for good measure. I'm not sure why I did this map, other than to revive this thread.

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I welcome requests.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 14, 2013, 06:55:21 AM
Nice one. :) I'm starting to get the pattern. ;)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 14, 2013, 07:30:23 PM
Maps for all those also-ran candidates or lists are always quite interesting, even if they're friends-and-neighbors maps quite often

Marcilhacy in 1965:
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Muller in 1974:
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The Malaud-Poujade-Medecin list (Union de défense interprofessionnelle pour une France indépendante dans une Europe solidaire) in the 1979 Euros. A much messier and unclear map, but it is extremely interesting
()

I'm not sure if anybody besides Antonio and a few others care much about this thread, but yeah, if anybody has specific requests.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Simfan34 on January 14, 2013, 07:42:04 PM
Any particular reason for CNIP's poor showing in Limousin?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on January 14, 2013, 07:48:59 PM
Any particular reason for CNIP's poor showing in Limousin?

The Limousin is and has been a left-wing stronghold for ages and ages now; so naturally the CNIP had little local networks there at any given point.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 15, 2013, 07:36:50 AM
Poujade? That Poujade? He ran in a CNIP list in 1979? ROFL.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Zanas on January 21, 2013, 05:40:45 AM
A few things.

Those Marchais strongholds in Somme, northern Brittany and all over the Golfe du Lion coast make me quite sad today, considering...

Émile Muller one is breathtaking ! This St-Malo-Nice divide is near perfect ! Not really sure it means anything though, considering the very small shares. I get Alsace, of course, but what was going on in Somme ?

I went to see who he was, and I saw that every socialist mayor of Mulhouse was bound to betray and end up allying or just plain enlisting with the right-wing. Happened with Wagner, Muller, Klifa and Bockel. To be fair, Wagner hadn't a majority on his own.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2013, 03:50:41 PM
I was bored so I made this map for a forgotten but interesting episode in electoral history

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The traditional patterns, but mixed in with interesting favourite son effects -- some of which are rather noticeable here. See if you can spot a few.



Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on February 24, 2013, 07:36:02 PM
Just discovered this thread today. Obviously, you have already been posting quite a number of maps, but going through 630 posts can become a bit tiring. Thus, can you maybe point out relevant maps (side number is sufficient) that allow me to trace:

1.) Spatial evolution of Les Verts (and related groupings / candidates) - I read somewhere that the movement evolved simultaneously and together with the German anti-nuke / Grüne movement on the Upper Rhine, and it would be interesting to see whether this holds true, and some kind of territorial spread from the Alsace can be traced on electoral maps.

2. Front Nationale - historical strongholds and their evolution over time.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 06, 2013, 09:42:00 PM
Since you've provided me with actual requests, the firsts in months, I might as well put some effort into this (but it will take longer)

Note: please pay attention to the keys; the colour scheme is the same, but the values/scale change depending on the national result

2. Front Nationale - historical strongholds and their evolution over time.

1956 Poujadists
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1965 (Presidential) Tixier-Vignancour
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1984 (European Parliament) FN
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1988 (Presidential) Le Pen
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1995 (Presidential) Le Pen
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1995 (Presidential) Change in Le Pen vote since 1988
()

1.) Spatial evolution of Les Verts (and related groupings / candidates) - I read somewhere that the movement evolved simultaneously and together with the German anti-nuke / Grüne movement on the Upper Rhine, and it would be interesting to see whether this holds true, and some kind of territorial spread from the Alsace can be traced on electoral maps.

1974 (Presidential) Dumont
()

1979 (European Parliament) Greens list (Solange Fernex)
()

I will do some stuff about 2002, 2007 and 2012 for the FN next.

Please feel free to ask away from clarifications/questions etc.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on March 06, 2013, 09:54:30 PM
Great! Why the poor Poujadist performance in Eure? Or is that drop-off relative to surrounding areas merely exaggerated by the color scale?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 06, 2013, 10:46:34 PM
Since you've provided me with actual requests, the firsts in months, I might as well put some effort into this (but it will take longer)

I will do some stuff about 2002, 2007 and 2012 for the FN next.

Please feel free to ask away from clarifications/questions etc.


Thanks for the maps!

I'm curious about the 1984 EU Parliament map for the Greens, it seems there is quite some overlap of FN and Green strongholds (except for Normandy, I guess the Green's strength there was owed to La Hague).

Forgive my ignorance of pre-1980s French politics - could you explain in a few sentences why you have started the FN series with Poujadists and EXD?
The FN belt between Montpellier and Bordeaux - is it including Toulouse or running north of it?

I have the impression that some historical patterns are still shaping regional party allegiances. If it isn't too difficult, could you indicate the main medieval dvisions (English / Aquitaine, France proper, Burgundy/ Holy Roman Empire) with red lines on your maps (yeah, I know, borders changed quite often, and its a hell of a work unless you are using a SVG editor, so this is really only in case you have time for it and feel it might add some explanation of patterns).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2013, 08:23:48 PM
Great! Why the poor Poujadist performance in Eure? Or is that drop-off relative to surrounding areas merely exaggerated by the color scale?

The Poujadists did indeed do rather poorly in the Eure (5.4% of reg'd voters). PMF's Radical list won 37% of the vote there, thoroughly dominating the department (outside Broglie, a old right-wing stronghold; and the working-class PCF area around Gisors etc). It might have checked a Poujadist wave, but this is only a guess.

Forgive my ignorance of pre-1980s French politics - could you explain in a few sentences why you have started the FN series with Poujadists and EXD?
The FN belt between Montpellier and Bordeaux - is it including Toulouse or running north of it?

Poujadism and the Tixier candidacy are often seen as forerunners of the FN. They were both far-right movements, and Le Pen was closely associated with both (he was a UFF deputy for the Seine in 1956, and Tixier's campaign manager in 1965). Poujadism, in its social base (small shopkeepers/artisans/petite bourgeoisie; 'forgotten' people swept up by change) and its rhetoric was similar to the modern FN. Tixier's candidacy, with its French Algeria focus, was obviously influential on the early FN - and their electorate was also pretty much the same.

I have the impression that some historical patterns are still shaping regional party allegiances. If it isn't too difficult, could you indicate the main medieval dvisions (English / Aquitaine, France proper, Burgundy/ Holy Roman Empire) with red lines on your maps (yeah, I know, borders changed quite often, and its a hell of a work unless you are using a SVG editor, so this is really only in case you have time for it and feel it might add some explanation of patterns).

The FN belt in the Garonne Valley extended into Haute-Garonne; the FN used to poll strongest in urban areas and inner suburbs so it did well in Toulouse in the early elections, by 1995 the FN was at 12-13% in Toulouse and strongest in the outskirts.

I have the impression that some historical patterns are still shaping regional party allegiances. If it isn't too difficult, could you indicate the main medieval dvisions (English / Aquitaine, France proper, Burgundy/ Holy Roman Empire) with red lines on your maps (yeah, I know, borders changed quite often, and its a hell of a work unless you are using a SVG editor, so this is really only in case you have time for it and feel it might add some explanation of patterns).

I only use MS Paint, so I can't edit in other boundaries unless I do it by hand (and I won't). I'm sure the apparent links with Medieval maps are merely coincidental, and certainly nobody has seriously suggested that there's any kind of direct link or correlation between the two. The bases of regional political allegiances are, despite everything, still heavily influenced by the religious divide.

I'm working on the Greens in 1984, a fairly weird map; but I feel there might be an error in the data (::) France)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 08, 2013, 05:52:33 AM
I have the impression that some historical patterns are still shaping regional party allegiances. If it isn't too difficult, could you indicate the main medieval dvisions (English / Aquitaine, France proper, Burgundy/ Holy Roman Empire) with red lines on your maps (yeah, I know, borders changed quite often, and its a hell of a work unless you are using a SVG editor, so this is really only in case you have time for it and feel it might add some explanation of patterns).

I only use MS Paint, so I can't edit in other boundaries unless I do it by hand (and I won't).
Completely understood and accepted :)

I'm sure the apparent links with Medieval maps are merely coincidental, and certainly nobody has seriously suggested that there's any kind of direct link or correlation between the two. The bases of regional political allegiances are, despite everything, still heavily influenced by the religious divide.

Let me again apologise for my only superficial knowledge of French history - I am exploiting you to improve on it - but which religous divide? I always assumed the Huguenots were almost completely driven out of France after St. Bartholomew's Night.

I remember to have read somewhere (probably in a travel guide, so not neccessarily one of the most credible sources) that historic Cathar strongholds for quite some time have displayed specific political patterns. I also heard somewhere that the historic Anglo (Aquitanian) - French divide had reappeared during the French Revolution, which in turn has shaped political patterns until more recently. But let's have the maps first, then we may discuss on what is behind certain regional patterns.

I'm working on the Greens in 1984, a fairly weird map; but I feel there might be an error in the data (::) France)
[/quote]


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 08, 2013, 07:50:45 PM
Let me again apologise for my only superficial knowledge of French history - I am exploiting you to improve on it - but which religous divide? I always assumed the Huguenots were almost completely driven out of France after St. Bartholomew's Night.

The religious divide I am referring to is the Catholic (clerical) vs. anticlerical divide. Its roots are pretty clear; the RCC was the enemy of the Revolution and republicanism from day one and there was mutual hatred between the two. The Church was seen as incompatible with the values of the Revolution and the Republic; the Republic and the Revolution were anathema to the Church and its definition of Catholicism. The religious cleavage was particularly important in the first era of the Third Republic between 1871 and 1905 (the separation of Church and State) because the clericals directly opposed the Republic itself. A lot made their peace with the Republic, either through the development of a new non-monarchist right (the Ralliés, post-1892) -- which became, eventually, the FR > moderates/CNI > liberals/Giscardians/PR; or the birth of the social Christian/humanist tradition with Marc Sangnier's Jeune République/Le Sillon -- parts of which became the PDP/MRP/CDS and the modern Christian democratic centrist tradition.

But, needless to say, the religious cleavage between clericals/political Catholics and anticlericals (Radicals mostly, but also the SFIO -- although many Socialists at the outset played a double game in order to appeal to monarchists/right-wingers in runoffs against RadSocs -- and obviously the PCF) remained very important after 1905. Religion or lack thereof, obviously, results in different mindsets and sets of values which result, naturally, in very different political opinions.

This map is the basic map to understand French politics:
()

Or similar maps such as Chanoine Boulard's famous map:
()

The religious cleavage is less important these days (but still quite central despite everything; Sarkozy would have won reelection by a big margin if only self-defined Catholics had the vote). It was obviously far more important in the past: 1936 (http://welections.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/legislative-19361.png) is the best example (as it predates the realignment of anticlerical rural areas in eastern France in 1946); in the maps of the 1965 (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Presidential1965R2-Constituency.png), 1974 (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Presidential1974R2-Constituency.png) and 1981 (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Presidential1981R2-Constituency.png) presidential runoffs it is very striking.

NB: There is still a Catholic vs Protestant difference in those regions with Protestant minorities, but the Calvinists don't vote like Lutherans at all.

Quote
I remember to have read somewhere (probably in a travel guide, so not neccessarily one of the most credible sources) that historic Cathar strongholds for quite some time have displayed specific political patterns. I also heard somewhere that the historic Anglo (Aquitanian) - French divide had reappeared during the French Revolution, which in turn has shaped political patterns until more recently. But let's have the maps first, then we may discuss on what is behind certain regional patterns.

I should restate what I said. I did not mean to deny any links between Revolutionary and pre-Revolutionary maps/events to current voting patterns. On the contrary, Revolutionary and pre-Revolutionary events are still quite present on the maps and explain many political traditions. Lozère (obviously... ahem... less so today) is the classic example, voting patterns have always been based on the War of Religions/Camisards rebellion over there. In Basse-Bretagne, the Bonnets rouges rebellion obviously played a role in forming the political tradition in the Trégorrois/Cornouaille.

The religious cleavage is informed in large part by Revolutionary-era (or pre-revolutionary) traditions -- among a whole slew of other factors (or are they causes?). For example, this map of priests who swore an oath to the Revolution in 1791... no comment!
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Two other important factors that I can mention (besides the obvious and international class/income stuff) in passing include settlement type (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Typopopulations1896-1_zps4b9c1e95.png) (nucleated vs. dispersed population/habitat) and land ownership patterns (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Typoagricoles1929et1942-1_zps07c2d625.png).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 08, 2013, 08:43:06 PM
Family structure patterns as well, of course.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on March 08, 2013, 10:11:31 PM
I guess that whole "Cult of Reason" phenomenon wasn't be a big hit among the vendéens du bocage, eh? ;)

NB: There is still a Catholic vs Protestant difference in those regions with Protestant minorities, but the Calvinists don't vote like Lutherans at all.

Do you have any data or maps on the geographic/socioeconomic divide amongst Protestant groups? I'd be interested to know what's going on there.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 09, 2013, 12:28:05 PM
1984 (EU Parliament) - Greens (Didier Anger)

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Notes: I strongly suspect something is fishy in the official results in those weird constituencies in Haute-Savoie and Lot-et-Garonne but I am pretty sure the mistake comes from the official results (::) lol France) rather than my source. Still, a rather bizarre map which is not at all the traditional green map. I will need to make a map for the 'ERE' vote (a list led by Olivier Stirn and Brice Lalonde which had centrists, centre-right, greenies and the MRG).



2002 (Presidential) - Le Pen, round one

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2002 (Presidential) - change in Le Pen vote since 1995

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Note: low results in the Somme estuary and other regions due to Saint-Josse (primarily)

2007 (Presidential) - Le Pen

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2007 (Presidential) - change in Le Pen vote since 2002

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2012 (Presidential) - Le Pen

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2012 (Presidential) - change in Le Pen vote since 2002

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2012 (Legislative) - FN candidates, round one

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2013, 02:57:19 PM
In the greens series...

1981 (Presidential) - Lalonde

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1988 (Presidential) - Waechter

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1988 (Presidential) - Juquin

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Pierre Juquin was a communist 'rénovateur' (reformist) who was backed by a mix of red-greens, reformist commies, Trots, New Left/far-left hippy types. Note his rather distinctive map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2013, 06:19:39 PM
If anybody still cares...

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on March 11, 2013, 12:11:45 AM
Just discovered this thread. As someone who knows precious little about French politics, I have enjoyed learning more from this thread and others of yours, hash! :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 12, 2013, 01:56:28 AM
Just to let you know - I am reading, looking at patterns, trying to comprehend them, and will sooner or later come up with questions.

O.k.-maybe a few observations / questions already:
1) Following your approach on the clerical / anti-clerical divide, FN and the Greens both appear to be 'clerical' parties. Or - maybe that is a better interpretation - for both parties it has been easier to gain footholds in the clerical than in the non-clerical part of the electorate (probably because the latter is quite loyal to PS and the Communists). Why is party loyalty less pronounced among 'clericals'?
2.) Aside from the 'clerical' regions, both FN and the Greens also had pretty good results in the wider Paris periphery. Why?
3.) FN is having obvious problems in Brittany and Nomandy, even though both are 'clerical' regions. I understand to some extent that autonomy-minded Brittany might not be too keen on voting FN, but what is keeping the FN down in Normandy?
4.) Same question for the Greens as concerns the South-west.
5.) Out of curiosity - what were the Green and FN 'high watermarks' in Chambery (my daughter just returned from a student exchange there, her exchange partner will arrive here after Easter)? I was also surprised about the Green's lacklustre performance in the Larzac, since comparable areas in Germany like the Wendland are green strongholds. Any reasons?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 12, 2013, 06:32:44 PM
Quote
1) Following your approach on the clerical / anti-clerical divide, FN and the Greens both appear to be 'clerical' parties. Or - maybe that is a better interpretation - for both parties it has been easier to gain footholds in the clerical than in the non-clerical part of the electorate (probably because the latter is quite loyal to PS and the Communists). Why is party loyalty less pronounced among 'clericals'?

On the contrary, the FN and the Greens are NOT clerical parties; I realize that based on basic comparison from the two maps, there are overlaps but they are misleading and deceptive. It must be noted that the religious cleavage is less relevant these days, and even in Catholic regions the percentage of practicing Catholics is low. Those two maps date from 1951 and 1960, when tons of people went to Church weekly. Only a few hardcore conservative Catholics still go to church weekly, to the point where practicing Catholics today are those who go to church at least monthly. As in other countries, the far-right and greens benefited from secularization and the declining relevance of political Catholicism/religious cleavage. But traditions persist...
 
The vote for the FN and Greens has little to do with religion.
 
The FN had a small traditionalist and ultraconservative Catholic wing (Bernard Antony, former FN MEP who left the party post-Marine), but the FN has little to do with traditionalist Catholicism - social conservatism and traditionalist political Catholicism is associated with Philippe de Villiers or Christine Boutin. You do have a small number of ultra-conservative Catholics of the Bernard Antony/Mgr Lefebvre variety who tend to vote FN, but they're a tiny minority. The FN's voters are usually Catholics, but not either non-practicing or those who practice irregularly/occasionally; it also has been doing quite well with irreligious/non-religious/agnostic voters. In 2012, Panzergirl won only 12% with regularly practicing Catholics (Sarko won 54% by the first round) but 21% with those who practice occasionally, 20% with Catholics in name only (who don't practice) and 16% with those without a religion. In 1984 (Euros), the FN did better than average with practicing Catholics -- but the 1984 FN electorate was very different from its electorate in any other year (even 1988), and since then the FN's numbers with practicing Catholics have been below average. The Catholic Church itself, since the FN's creation, has almost always opposed the FN despite any common positions the two might have shared on stuff like abortion or gay marriage.
 
The Greens have little support with devout Catholics, weak support with Catholics in name only and their strongest support almost always comes from irreligious/non-religious voters (unsurprising). In 2009 (Euros), according to CSA, the Greenies won 9% with practicing Catholics, 11% with occasionally practicing Catholics, 12% with non-practicing Catholics, 19% with non-Catholic religious voters (Prods, Muslims) and 23% with irreligious/non-religious folks. It was basically the same (at much lower levels) in 2012, 2010, 2007, 2002 etc. The Greens likely have some rather religious voters, no doubt about it, but most Green voters are very distant from Catholicism (like a lot of left-wing voters).
 
Furthermore, a closer comparison of both maps and analysis of the vote at a more micro level (cantons) also shows that the apparent link between clerical regions and a strong FN/Green vote is an illusion. For the FN, notice how - since the 1990s when the FN's vote adopted the contours of its current shape (less 'right-wingers' and more 'ni-ni' protest votes) - it has performed consistently poorly in rural Catholic heartland regions (bocage vendéen, Vannetais, Léon, far-eastern Brittany, Maine and Anjou, bocage normand, Aubrac, Margeride, Jura plateau, Basque Country). There are exceptions of course: the Sundgau (but notice how in 2012 Panzergirl didn't do as well there), Alsace-Lorraine, the Yssingelais, Forez, Lyonnais, Flanders. But those results owe more to other factors (urbanization, immigrant population, working-class discontent, industrial decline/deindustrialization) than to clerical support. It is also those regions - more open to external influences/urbanization than aforementioned rural areas - where secularization was most pronounced. And in Alsace, a finer analysis shows that the FN vote is traditionally stronger in Lutheran cantons than in Catholic cantons.
 
For the Greens - their strength is unsurprisingly concentrated in urban areas, particularly secular tertiary/white-collar middle-class cities like Rennes, Nantes, Grenoble, Annecy, Chambéry, Paris, Lyon, Toulouse or Strasbourg; and suburban areas which surround those cities. The 'rural' areas where it does well tend to be coastal or mountainous areas which either have environmental concerns/threats or are well 'integrated' and economically vibrant regions  (often touristy) which have attracted some professionals (the 'néo-ruraux' for example in the Ardèche, Isère, Drôme) or hippies. In the Catholic heartland regions, the Greens do very poorly.



Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 12, 2013, 07:06:04 PM
Quote
2.) Aside from the 'clerical' regions, both FN and the Greens also had pretty good results in the wider Paris periphery. Why?

For the FN -- the thing to take away in Ile-de-France is that the FN vote has dropped significantly in the region, particularly in Paris and its western suburbs, since 1984. In 1984, it won 14.5% in the region and 15.3% in Paris; in 2007, at the same level nationally, it won 7.5% in the region and 4.6% in Paris. Even in 2012, Panzergirl won only 12.3% in the region and 6.2% in Paris -- which is lower than what Daddy had won in 2002 (14.6%, 9.5%). You can clearly see this on the 88-95, 95-02, 02-12 swing maps. In 1984 - and 1986, 1988 to a lesser extent - the FN was strong with an upper middle-class, right-wing and bourgeois electorate particularly in Paris and some of the affluent suburbs in 92 and 78 (note the strong result in Neuilly); but at the same time it always had a composite nature in that it was also strong in the working-class suburbs of eastern Paris and parts of the Red Belt, where the FN won voters who had voted Mitterrand in 1981 and in many cases still voted for the left in left-right runoffs. In 1995, it dropped in the older inner suburbs but did particularly well in new working-class/low-income towns like Mantes-la-Jolie (22%) or Gonesse (21%) which concentrated problems such as rising criminality, immigration, low incomes, unemployment, "poor whites" and white flight. The FN vote is now very low in the affluent suburbs, weak in the older suburbs - even working-class and low-income areas of the 93, and even in places like Mantes-la-Jolie (11.5% in 2012). The FN has been the victim of white flight (lower income working-class whites leaving the region for crime/immigration/brown people reasons) and rising property prices/gentrification in Paris and the inner suburbs (even parts of the 93) which has forced them out. The towns where the FN was strongest in the 1980s and early 1990s now either have a large non-white population or have been gentrified quite extensively.

In 2012, Panzergirl did best in what researchers have branded the "périurbain subi" -- lower middle-class outer suburbs/exurbs (notably in the Seine-et-Marne, now the FN's best department in the region), populated by whites forced out (or who willingly left because of white flight reasons) of the major cities/inner suburbs because of rising property prices, but who still commute long distances to work in those major cities because exurbs have no jobs of their own and are pretty dreary places. So they are concerned about bread-and-butter stuff (gas prices, mortgages, household debt, jobs) and immigration/crime. In their mindset, the inner cities and suburbs concentrate what they hate the most in the world: immigrants (who took their jobs, allegedly) and liberal tolerant whites (l'élite bien-pensante)/the devilish bobos. The périurbain subi phenomenon and the associated collapse of the FN vote in the urban cores is one of the most important takeaways of 2007/2012, and it is not only a Parisian thing. I can link you to the sh**tload of pre and post-electoral studies/analysis done on the FN vote by distance to urban cores.

For the Greens -- the Greenies are, like in Germany and most other countries, a urban party so naturally they would do best in the country's largest urban/metropolitan area. Besides, Paris and its region concentrate all you need for a high Green vote: young population, educated and secular white-collar professionals, bobos, students, academics, journalists and middle-class families. Eastern Paris and the inner former Red Belt have seen major gentrification in recent years, it is not really noticeable at first sight because it hasn't abated the strongly left-wing nature of those places (on the contrary...) so few people seem to realize that eastern Paris and the old Red Belt are not working-class regions. Paris proper has really high property prices, which means that few low-income or working-class people can afford to live there besides in the few HLM tracts on the outskirts of the city. Which isn't to say that everybody in Paris earns tons of money; but incomes are higher than average, even in the east. But the right's favourite boogeyman (a filthy rich liberal bobo who earns tons but votes for the left and bashes the right) doesn't exist. The left-wing base of Paris in good part now consists of not overly affluent but highly educated young professionals (or students, academics, journalists etc) who are the perfect Green electorate. Many of the old Red Belt suburbs have been gentrified a whole lot too, becoming attractive for young professionals or young families because of lower property prices. Some places like Gennevilliers, Aubervilliers, La Courneuve, Drancy, Bobigny etc remain very low-income and deprived areas, but even in those and similar cases, the proportion of 'ouvriers' is low and most jobs are low paying jobs (clerical, employees etc) rather than the old 1950s industrial stuff. The Greens, as a left-wing party, are very strong in gentrified and solidly left-wing areas in the Parisian region: Montreuil (29% in 2009, the largest city with a Green mayor), for example. They are also very strong in the Paris-Orsay "knowledge corridor" which has a lot of prestigious research centres/unis: 27% in Orsay, 25% in Palaiseau, 24% in Sceaux, 25% in Cachan (2009 results). The Greens also perform well in some new cities (villes nouvelles), particularly those with a largely leftist middle-class/white-collar population (a lot of them public servants). It explains, for example, why the Greens are so strong in the Cergy-Pontoise area and the Marne-la-Vallée 'ville nouvelle' conurbation. On the other hand, the Greens still struggle in cité populaires and low-income towns (aforementioned towns, Melun, Meaux, Argenteuil, Grigny, Villeneuve-Saint-Georges, Trappes) and the exurbs where the FN is strong.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 12, 2013, 07:10:29 PM
Quote
3.) FN is having obvious problems in Brittany and Nomandy, even though both are 'clerical' regions. I understand to some extent that autonomy-minded Brittany might not be too keen on voting FN, but what is keeping the FN down in Normandy?

Of course, as you read above, the 'clerical' factor should be expected to play against the FN, on balance. In Brittany and the inner west (Normandy less so, the clergy was never strong there outside the bocage normand), the religious tradition and clericalism was a factor which kept the FN low, and it should not be underestimated. Brittany, and most of Normandy, are also pro-European regions. Brittany and most the west are, nowadays, fairly economically vibrant and relatively well-off regions because they have transitioned fully to the white-collar/tertiary/service economy of today (de-industrialization was not as huge as in the east).

If you look at the map, it is clear than the FN vote has been heavily concentrated east of an imaginary line from Le Havre to Saint Etienne to Perpignan (I have redefined it, to reflect the new map, as the Le Havre-Meaux-St Etienne-Perpignan axis). Though since the early 1990s (especially in 2012), the tendency has been a 'nationalization' of the FN vote (Panzergirl did really well in a bunch of ruralish cantons west of that line). The areas east of the line, not entirely but in good part, include most of France's most heavily industrialized regions (including the mines) and also major post-industrial urban cores which have attracted large foreign/immigrant populations since the 1970s/1980s. The FN vote developed, in 1984, in places located close to large concentrations of foreigners and that factor has remained quite potent to this day. Of course, since the 1990s the FN does very well (often best, in fact) in places with no brown people; but even those places are influenced by immigration since it is often close to them and they are in direct contact with it (often through work and commuting to work in those places). At the outset, in places such as Brittany or the west which did not have lots of immigrants, the FN did not really have much to grown on.

Quote
4.) Same question for the Greens as concerns the South-west.

The southwest, as you'll see once I get to the later Green maps, is no longer a 'dead zone' for the Greens, but large parts of central inland France remain very weak for the Greens.

Most of the southwest, outside major cities (Toulouse, Bordeaux, Montpelier), are fairly ruralish areas -- not a whole lot of white-collar professionals, young families, academics, students, bobos or urban lefties for the Greens to feed on, besides the various 'neo-rurals' in various places (mostly the touristy places). It's mostly a mix of old small industrial centres, small towns, and traditionally rural areas; none of which are places where the Greens do particularly well (but their arch rivals, CPNT, did very well in the rural areas). It also doesn't help, especially along the Mediterranean, that a lot of the 'urban' people there are either retirees, lower middle-classes or other right-wing types who are either concerned about security/crime or who just want to build tall ugly buildings along the coast. Unsurprisingly the heliotropic retirees and the various other peoples in those places have little time for the Greenies.

Quote
5.) Out of curiosity - what were the Green and FN 'high watermarks' in Chambery (my daughter just returned from a student exchange there, her exchange partner will arrive here after Easter)? I was also surprised about the Green's lacklustre performance in the Larzac, since comparable areas in Germany like the Wendland are green strongholds. Any reasons?

My data at the communal level goes back to 1995, unfortunately--
Chambéry:
FN peak in 2002 (prez, first round): 16.7%
FN, 2012 prez (R1): 13.8%
Green peak in 2009 (Euros): 22.4%
Hollande won 56.8% in Chambéry in the runoff.

The Greens, actually, didn't do all that bad in the Larzac in 1988, 1995, 2009 (well, obviously) or 2012. But, yes, definitely not a Green stronghold, even compared to other rural areas. I don't know the insides and outs, but the Larzac doesn't really have the factors for a strong Green vote, despite the history of activism and social movements in the area. It doesn't have many neorural types which makes the Greens so strong in other rural regions, it remains a fairly agricultural and clerical as well (both factors limit the Greens).

thanks for your questions, I hope my answers make sense :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hnv1 on March 13, 2013, 04:47:06 AM
What makes the German border regions go so strongly right? local farmers are very Christian?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 13, 2013, 07:17:27 AM
What makes the German border regions go so strongly right? local farmers are very Christian?

Yep - I wanted to come to this point as well. You, Hash, have already mentioned one factor - strong Arab immigration to work in the Mulhouse car plant, which seems to be something the locals in this fairly traditional, small-town region had to get used to (looking at the maps, it seems the FN vote is on steady decline in southern Alsace since its 1995 peak).

Another factor I suspect is the FN taking up some votes of 'French immigrants' in this still culturally quite German area (comments welcome!).
[A few years ago, I organised a study-tour for a Moldavian-Romanian delegation on cross-border cooperation in the EU. We visited Gorlitz - Zgorcelec, and Kehl - Strasbourg, talking to Mayors, Chambers of Commerce, businesses, customs officials etc. In the final evaluation, I asked participants to sum up their impressions. They felt the German-Polish cooperation going much more smoothly, as both sides had no problems to accept each other as being different in terms of culture, economic profile etc.  Conversely, in spite of much higher economic integration, they felt the Strasbourg area - Ortenau cooperation hampered by the fact that both sides were so similar to each other culturally that they rather focused on working out their differences, than exploiting cooperation potentials. Asked which of the two experiences was more useful, they pointed at the German-French one, because it pretty much reminded them on their own.]

As to the other, very detailed comments:

ad 1.) I had formulated my question in a bit misunderstandable way. Of course, the FN is not a clerical party. The German Greens have a quite strong religious element, dating back to their roots in the West German peace movement, and the East German church-based opposition,  signified by people like former party head Petra Kelly or current top candidate Katrin Göring Eckardt, who is also head of the German Lutheran Synod. So it was quite interesting to learn that this element does not play that much of a role for the French Greens.
However, the question was not only why it was easier for FN and Greens to gain support in 'clerical regions' (you have answered this - because many of these regions have become much less clerical than they have been in the 1960s), but also why both are struggling in south-central France. You have given one reason already - their socio-economic base (disenfranchised blue-collar in the case of FN, younger high-educated urban in the case of the Greens) is not really strong there. Presumably, a second factor is continuous strong allegiance to 'red' parties, rooted in the anti-clerical tradition.

ad 2.) I had by intention used the term "wider Paris periphery' instead of Ile-de-France, because the area I wanted to refer to also includes Oise and  Eure, and, for FN, Eure-et-Loir, Loiret, and parts of Yonne, especially Sens. I am not sure whether these areas still belong to the "périurbain subi", or there are other factors at work. Compiegne, e.g., was quite a Green stronghold in 1989,  but has also been voting heavily FN in 2007 and 2012.

ad 4.) My question was more related to the Atlantic south-west, which in principle should  have some similarity to Brittany (tourism, strongly pro-European, etc.), possibly also some eco-minded young winegrowers. I don't know, however, how strong Basque autonomist parties, which might sap up some of the Green vote potential, are there. Anyway, I wait for the more recent maps, probably the picture will get clearer.

ad 5.) When I visited the Larzac back in 1985, it felt quite similar to the Wendland (well, as similar as the North German plain and the Massif Central can get), with hippie-type small businesses selling pottery or local honey, etc.. However, I tend to get the feeling that the French Greens are more of a pure ecological party, while the German Greens evolved from a coalition of ecologists, peace movement and euro-communists. in other words - the type of activist that in Germany would definitely have voted Green in the 1990s (today maybe also Linke), might have other preferences in France.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2013, 09:49:35 AM
- Hash, as for Green results in Lot-et-Garonne in 1981 and 1984, I'm not so sure that there is a mistake.
I remember that, in these years, there were very lively structures of organic farming (there are still a lot) in Lot-et-Garonne and many local rallies of anti-nuclear, pacifist, environment-friendly structures.
Well, between 2.6 and 4.1%, it might be an explanation...

- homely, about Poujadists' results in Eure, well, Mendès-France was pretty popular among rurals, especially among shopkeepers and tradesmen but also among peasants.
Locally, he was a moderate Radical, not a leftist one, and, as PM, he made decisions which were good for this electorate (free milk for pupils in schools, for example: a good market for breeders and for grocers).

These are "micro"-explanations, but reasonable ones.

- As for 1984 and the list with Lalonde and Stirn, it was a list with Lalonde, Stirn AND François Doubin, MRG leader of the time. It was so dubbed the LSD list ;)
I was too young (13) to vote, but old enough to litterally force my parents to vote for them :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2013, 09:57:27 AM
- Hash, as for Green results in Lot-et-Garonne in 1981 and 1984, I'm not so sure that there is a mistake.
I remember that, in these years, there were very lively structures of organic farming (there are still a lot) in Lot-et-Garonne and many local rallies of anti-nuclear, pacifist, environment-friendly structures.
Well, between 2.6 and 4.1%, it might be an explanation...

My issue is that the official results gave the Greens 5.95% in Lot-et-Garonne 1(Agen) when they got 2.5% and 3% in the other ones; likewise, the results gives them 0.35% in Haute-Savoie 1 (Annecy), where their results were very strong in 1979, and 4% and 3.6% in the other ones. I seriously suspect something is up with that.

I don't see anything fishy in 1981.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2013, 10:17:42 AM
Well, the hierarchy between the 3 constituencies was the same in 81 and 84.

And a 3 point gap in a constituency in a European election, with low turnout (though it's 84, not the 21st century), it's not that impossible.
Sure, I can't remember about local big guns for the Greens...

I have another idea, FWIW: the new nuclear plant of Golfech which was being built during these years.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2013, 10:30:16 AM
Well, the hierarchy between the 3 constituencies was the same in 81 and 84.

And a 3 point gap in a constituency in a European election, with low turnout (though it's 84, not the 21st century), it's not that impossible.
Sure, I can't remember about local big guns for the Greens...

I have another idea, FWIW: the new nuclear plant of Golfech which was being built during these years.

Although the gap between the three constituencies might be a bit on the high side (definitely higher than in 1981) it is indeed not impossible, and a local factor like those you mentioned could explain it. Clearly my main concern is about the 0.4% in Annecy's constituency, which you will agree is basically impossible.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2013, 08:36:37 PM
What makes the German border regions go so strongly right? local farmers are very Christian?
Yep - I wanted to come to this point as well. You, Hash, have already mentioned one factor - strong Arab immigration to work in the Mulhouse car plant, which seems to be something the locals in this fairly traditional, small-town region had to get used to (looking at the maps, it seems the FN vote is on steady decline in southern Alsace since its 1995 peak).

Another factor I suspect is the FN taking up some votes of 'French immigrants' in this still culturally quite German area (comments welcome!).

Alsace-Moselle is a peculiar and interesting reasons. Here are a few reasons, non-exhaustive and likely incomplete, to explain its politics:

1. First and foremost, Alsace and Moselle are clerical regions (in the Catholic cantons) where the RCC maintained a very strong social and political influence until the 1960s. Places like the Sundgau, an old Hapsburg dominion, have always been devoutly Catholic. The religious cleavage has also remained more important in the region because, having been German in 1905, it is not covered by the separation of Church and State and Alsace-Moselle is still governed by the Concordat: the state recognizes the Catholic, Protestant and Jewish faiths, ministers are paid by the states as 'public servants', there are religious classes in public schools and the Catholic archbishop of Strasbourg and bishop of Metz are appointed by the President. The Concordat was a major political issue under the Third Republic, when the French left (Radicals but also SFIO) wanted to abolish it; today, almost all politicians - including the left - support the status-quo on the Concordat in Alsace-Moselle. However, the left's opposition to the Concordat badly hurt the socialists (and Radicals) in the region, leaving them crippled after a brief era of socialist success (in 1919).

The religious tradition and strong clericalism has trumped class factors in Alsace and Moselle. Alsace-Moselle is a very industrialized and fairly working-class region; besides the very important coal basin (bassin houiller) of eastern Moselle (Forbach, Faulquemont, Stiring-Wendel, Freyming-Merlebach, L'Hôpital, Saint-Avold), there are the potash mines north and west of Mulhouse in the Haut-Rhin, a smaller (extinct) iron ore mining area in the Val d'Argent (Sainte-Marie-aux-Mines), long-dead mining in the Saales and Shirmeck area (Bas-Rhin), small industrial towns (Thann, Cernay, Sarre-Union, Bouxwiller etc) throughout the region and also a local tradition of 'ouvriers-paysans' (blue-collar workers with a foothold in agriculture) particularly in l'Alsace bossue (Sarre-Union/Bouxwiller/La Petite-Pierre area). But, the left has generally been weak in those areas - even if stronger than in surrounding Catholic rural areas - and especially weak if you compare to the Pays Haut. Even in 1981, Giscard won (not by a landslide or anything but still) in the bassin houillier or Alsace bossue. The largest and leftist union (formerly close to the PCF) CGT is weaker in Alsace-Moselle, and the Christian union (CFTC) tends to be very strong, especially in northern Bas-Rhin and eastern Moselle. The PCF has never been strong in Alsace or eastern Moselle since 1945 (in fact, it has always been its weakest region); outside of a few holdouts in urban areas. Alsace-Moselle is really a region where you can find those 30% of ('not too bright' sayeth Melenchon) ouvriers who voted for the right when the left won 70% of working-class votes in the peak years of the 50s/70s.

2. In Alsace, there is a fairly strong regionalist/localist tradition, influenced in part by the Alsatian dialect (widely spoken in most rural areas until the 1950s) and the special legal regime which applies to Alsace-Moselle since reintegration into France in 1918. Because it is a regionalism tied to Catholicism or Protestantism, and attached to local traditions it is largely right-wing (or far-right). Autonomism and regionalism  was extremely strong in Alsace and Moselle during the Third Republic: almost all Alsatian deputies were from local parties, either the Catholic UPR (the remnants of the German Zentrum), the largely Protestant liberal autonomist Fortschrittspartei led by Saverne deputy Camille Dahlet, Charles Frey's Democrats or the autonomist local Communists led by the pro-Nazi Charles Hueber and Jean-Pierre Mourer. The collaboration of many autonomists (including most local communists) with the Nazis discredited the autonomist movement, but regionalism remained fairly influential. The UPR integrated into the MRP which was dominant in Alsace-Moselle, and many centrist and right-wing politicians in Alsace - to this day - have been fairly regionalist or at least lobbied for regional interests quite well. There is also a far-right regionalist movement, Alsace d'abord, which has won 5-9% in regional elections in recent years (5% in 2010, 9% in 2004).

3. Alsace is a relatively wealthy region: particularly Strasbourg suburbia, the wine making countryside or the area bordering Switzerland (Basel) in the Sundgau. This, alongside the Christian democratic/centrist tradition, has contributed to making Alsace a very pro-European region (see the 1992 and 2005 referendums). This might appear contradictory given the simultaneously high FN votes, but there is a very strong negative correlation between FN votes and pro-European votes (OUI in 2005) at the cantonal level.

4. While the MRP, and later UDF, remained very strong in Alsace throughout the post-war era; Alsace and Moselle were also Gaullist strongholds - de Gaulle won huge majorities in 1965, and the RPF had done very well in 1951. In the early Gaullist years, Gaullism also had a strong cross-class appeal and won lots of working-class votes. In rural Alsace, until the FN changed matters around, most elections were fought between Gaullists and Christian dems. The left (PS, PCF) were irrelevant, and they still are.

5. A number of the SFIO's regional bigwigs in the post-war era were moderate, anti-communists and some had Christian left roots. A large number of local socialists rejected the Programme Commun and the alliance with the PCF in the 70s, and formed the Social Democratic Party (MDSF, PSD) which was a component of the UDF. These included Emile Muller, deputy and longtime mayor of Mulhouse (1956-1981); Joseph Klifa, deputy and mayor of Mulhouse (1981-1989); Jean-Marie Bockel, deputy/senator, Sarkozyst cabinet minister and mayor of Mulhouse (1989-2010); and Alfred Muller, mayor of Schiltigheim (1977-2008).

6a. Royal and Hollande did horribly in Alsace and eastern Moselle (outside Strasbourg and Mulhouse); Lionel Jospin did much better than both of them. Sarkozy performed very well in Alsace in both 2007 and 2012, and he took a lot of Le Pen 2002 voters in 2007. Working-class and industrial regions where the PS had been strong in the past (particularly the Potash basin in the Haut-Rhin, Cernay or Saint-Amarin) have swung hard to the right and far-right (Hollande did much worse than Mitterrand, 1981, in the Potash basin/Cernay/Saint-Amarin area).

6b. Related to the point above, the FN's vote in Alsace-Moselle is very much a working-class vote since 1988. It has done best in isolated/marginalized/"forgotten" working-class and/or industrial regions - l'Alsace bossue (great article on that region here (http://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=RFSP_534_0513#retournoteno22)), Sarrebourg/Plateau Lorrain (in Moselle), Saales/Schirmeck (an interesting case: these have always been Francophone vosgiens cantons, and the left has been quite strong here and held up better since the 80s/95; but the FN is also very strong), Sainte-Marie-aux-Mines (the current CG, now UMP, used to be far-right and Alsace d'abord), the Potash basin, Cernay/Thann/Saint-Amarin and Mulhouse. They took a lot of votes from the PS, particularly in the Potash basin, where gaucho-lepenisme was strong in 1995; but also took a lot of right-wing voters. A number voted for Sarko by the first round in 2007 and even in 2012, and Sarko swept even ertswhile leftie places (Potash basin) with big margins in the 2007 and 2012 runoffs. At the same time, the FN's decline in urban and inner suburban areas since the peaks of 1995 is quite striking in Alsace (Strasbourg: 20% in 1995, 12% in 2012; Mulhouse: 27% in 1995, 17.5% in 2012). They have also lost a lot of "right-wing FN" voters (to use Nonna Mayer's terminology) in the wine making region (notice weaker performance in the Alsatian Plain from Molsheim to Colmar/Kayersberg).

Immigration - there are large foreign (Muslim - Turkish or North African) communities in Mulhouse (car factories) and Strasbourg, is an important factor and there have been problems with foreign integration in Alsace. Even in lily-white towns not directly affected by crime/unemployment, anti-immigration resentment is quite high. The local FN electorate's high prioritization of immigration/security (rather than economic/social issues) explains why Sarko made huge inroads with it in 2007 (and 2012, to a lesser extent).

7. Slightly more unrelated to the original question now, but whatever. The confessional (Catholic vs Protestant) cleavage is not visible at first sight, but has remained relevant. It was far more important in rural Alsace in the 50s and 60s: the MRP won huge majorities in Catholic communes but did poorly in Protestant communes, where the vote was more dispersed (stronger support for the SFIO, Radicals, PCF, Gaullists, regionalists). It abated somewhat as the UDF and RPR became 'multi-confessional' in their Alsatian electorate, but Protestant communes still showed a more dispersed vote - and a higher vote share for the PS, Greens and particularly the FN. The FN, even in 2012, has been very strong in Alsace bossue and Protestant cantons of northern Bas-Rhin (27-30%): it is clear that demographic reasons play a big role, but confessional roots and traditions likely are a factor as well.

I *think* that's all I wanted to say, but I certainly forgot something and will feel like a douche when somebody brings it up or if I remember it later...

Other questions tomorrow! (still welcome other questions/requests, I love doing this and French electoral geography is the best thing on earth)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2013, 01:43:58 PM
Quote
ad 1.) I had formulated my question in a bit misunderstandable way. Of course, the FN is not a clerical party. The German Greens have a quite strong religious element, dating back to their roots in the West German peace movement, and the East German church-based opposition,  signified by people like former party head Petra Kelly or current top candidate Katrin Göring Eckardt, who is also head of the German Lutheran Synod. So it was quite interesting to learn that this element does not play that much of a role for the French Greens.
However, the question was not only why it was easier for FN and Greens to gain support in 'clerical regions' (you have answered this - because many of these regions have become much less clerical than they have been in the 1960s), but also why both are struggling in south-central France. You have given one reason already - their socio-economic base (disenfranchised blue-collar in the case of FN, younger high-educated urban in the case of the Greens) is not really strong there. Presumably, a second factor is continuous strong allegiance to 'red' parties, rooted in the anti-clerical tradition.

ad 4.) My question was more related to the Atlantic south-west, which in principle should  have some similarity to Brittany (tourism, strongly pro-European, etc.), possibly also some eco-minded young winegrowers. I don't know, however, how strong Basque autonomist parties, which might sap up some of the Green vote potential, are there. Anyway, I wait for the more recent maps, probably the picture will get clearer.

I understood that you did not mean to refer to the FN or Greens as 'clerical parties', I must have phrased my answer incorrectly. In my long-winded explanation, I tried to demonstrate that, on the contrary, we should normally expect a clerical tradition and strong religious practice to limit (rather than boost) support for those two parties.

The Christian left tradition in France has been quite important and influential, but it has not been associated with the Green Party as much as the CFDT or the PSU/New Left; although they did have a significant impact on the environmentalist movement. Many proponents of Emmanuel Mounier's 'personalism' ideology in the interwar era aligned with the left and socialism in the postwar era. The CFDT, a left-wing reformist trade union founded in 1964 as an offshoot (non-confessional and leftist) of the CFTC, has a very strong Christian left/'personalist' tradition. They also formed the backbone of social movements and organizations such as the JAC, JA, JOC. Politically, many progressive Catholics joined the New Left/Second Left in the 1950s and 1960s, which rejected the traditional Marxist dogma, the staleness and contradictions of the SFIO and the totalitarianism of the PCF; and embraced social movements and new progressive ideologies (Mai 68, self-management, feminism, pacifism, decentralization, anti colonialism, moral liberalism, sexual liberation and of course environmentalism). Politically, this New Left ideology was represented by the PSA/PSU, never very strong electorally or institutionally but which played a fundamental role in the creation of the post-SFIO non-communist left in France and had a disproportionate influence on the modern PS/left, in part because it included many talented leaders (Michel Rocard, PMF, Alain Savary etc). The PSU declined after 1969, and moderates such as Rocard left the party to join the PS in 1974; in the PS, Rocard formed the 'rightist' opposition to Mitterrand's party line (1979 Congress).

The political influence of the movement should not be downplayed. The Christian left has had a major influence on the PS, through leaders such as Rocard, Pierre Mauroy or Jacques Delors. The activism and grassroots bases of movements such as the CFDT, JAC, JA or JOC played a major role, among other factors, in the PS' substantial inroads in Brittany, Lower Normandy and the inner west. The CFDT/Christian left tradition remains fairly important in departments such as the Nord, but also Brittany or the west. But, all this to say, the Christian left's mark on French politics was with the PS more so than the Greens (although the environmental movement was no doubt influenced by it as well).

As for the southwest, the utter partisan domination of the PS in most of the region should indeed not be underestimated (particularly for the Greens, whose electorate overlaps a lot with that of the modern PS). Many PS feds in those departments are quite powerful, even if they are not 'powerhouses' like the PS-59 or PS-13 are.

On another comment, the "disenfranchised blue-collar base" can explain the FN electorate pretty well in general, but it can never be the only explanation. The FN is not universally strong in working-class or post-industrial towns, and this is particularly true in the SW and central France: the FN has never been particularly huge in Bordeaux's proletarian hinterland (Bègles, Villenave-d'Ornon, Cenon, Lormont, Floirac) and their votes in industrial islands such as Lannemezan, Lavelanet or mining towns such as Carmaux or Decazeville have never been anything to write home about.

As for the Greens, what I mentioned above largely holds true for the Atlantic SW as well. There are a lot of hunters in the area, as shown by the huge support for CPNT in the Médoc and other parts of the region (particularly parts of Béarn or in the Pyrénées) - and the enmity between greenies and hunters is rather obvious; the Landes is a PS stronghold, but also a fairly rural department with few major cities and certainly no large concentration of potential/usual Green supporters. Once you get in the Garonne valley, the Blayais and l'Entre-Deux-Mers; there are a lot of shopkeepers, blue-collar workers, lower middle-classes, fruits and vegetable producers and less affluent small winemakers (whose wine is less prestigious than Saint-Émilion, Sauternes or Médoc) - many of whom vote FN (see FN strength in the Garonne valley or Blayais in Gironde). The tourist clientele in big resorts in the region (Arcachon, Capbreton, Biarritz) tend to be pretty bourgeois and not fond of the Greens. It's not the more family-oriented, somewhat eco-friendly and nature tourism of Brittany; closer to the kind of bourgeois and traditional/intensive tourism near Les Sables-d'Olonne in Vendée or La Baule in Loire-Atlantique.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2013, 01:44:58 PM
Quote
ad 2.) I had by intention used the term "wider Paris periphery' instead of Ile-de-France, because the area I wanted to refer to also includes Oise and  Eure, and, for FN, Eure-et-Loir, Loiret, and parts of Yonne, especially Sens. I am not sure whether these areas still belong to the "périurbain subi", or there are other factors at work. Compiegne, e.g., was quite a Green stronghold in 1989,  but has also been voting heavily FN in 2007 and 2012.

The wider Parisian basin now forms some kind of giant metropolis where people in small towns commute to Paris but also towns such as Rouen, Evreux, Chartres, Orléans, Beauvais, Creil or Château-Thierry. Besides, places like the Vexin (in the Eure) have always been closer to Paris and its region than to 'their' regions. So the FN support is definitely périurbain, a lot of it 'périurbain subi' as poorer lower middle-class employees get 'forced' out of costly urban centres like Paris and need to move further and further out into formerly quaint rural areas which are now a mish-mash of bedroom communities, village-type towns with new suburban housing and so forth. Demographically, it is not homogeneous but it could be described as lower middle-class, generally young or middle-aged, home owners (but with mortgages, household debt and so forth), basic educational qualifications (few with uni degrees), private sector employees with low wages and low unemployment. Places which fit this description, on the remote outskirts of IDF but also in the Loiret, Vexin (Eure), northern Yonne, southern Aisne and southern Oise have a very high FN vote. There are also a number of old industrial centres (or railway hubs/cités cheminotes) in this region: Gisors, Fleury-sur-Andelle, Creil, Montataire, Nogent-sur-Oise, Montargis etc; the FN usually does pretty well in those towns as well.

But the trend is that the FN vote is now getting higher and higher in more rural areas, which aren't really exurban. This has been the trend since 1995, and in 2007 Le Pen's vote held up way better in rural areas in the east while he lost quite a bit in the 'périurbain', see the 2002-2007 swing map. Sarkozy's rhetoric of 'the value/virtue of work', 'the France which gets up early (la France qui se lève tôt)', individual responsibility, authority, law-and-order and his opposition to stuff like 'l'assistanat' (welfare queens in America), the 'liberal bobo elites' boogeymen and so forth all played well in the périurbain. The rural areas where the FN is doing extremely well in rural eastern France tend to be low income, blue-collar and very marginalized/isolated in the modern economy; there are few jobs or opportunities, forcing people to commute (l'ouvrier caché/'hidden worker' thesis, developed in Alsace) to mid-size towns, demographic decline (including, in a lot of cases, aging population) and a hollowing out of public services (local post offices closing etc). Panzergirl's appeal to 'invisible' and 'voiceless' people had a particularly strong appeal in 2012. Ifop's study (see page 18, http://www.partisocialisterhone.fr/wp-content/2012/07/IFOP-geographie-des-votes-a-la-presidentielle.pdf) showed that the FN vote, since 2007, picks up again in communes over 100km from 200k+ urban centres (but peaks at 30-50km from those places). In rural areas, a lot of the FN vote tends to be a very alienated protest vote, with right-wing/conservative origins, which might be more reticent towards voting for the UMP in a left-right runoff than your average périurbain subi FN voter.

On the early FN maps (1980s, but also early 1990s up until 1995 or 1998) you will notice that the FN polled very well in Eure-et-Loir's 2nd constituency but that it has since dropped off quite a bit there. That constituency includes Dreux, which practically everybody who knows French politics a bit recognizes as the place where the FN was really 'born' as a serious political player in a 1983 by-election. Dreux is a historically left-wing (socialist) industrial and working-class town which attracted a large foreign (North African/Muslim) workforce in the 1960s, and faced major urban decay/post-industrial problems in the late 1970s and 1980s. The FN had some of its first electoral successes there in the 1982 cantonal elections, and in a 1983 municipal by-election, a FN list led by Jean-Pierre Stirbois (former secretary-general of the FN in the 1980s) won 16% of the vote and merged with the RPR-UDF list which won the runoff (the first right-FN alliance). The RPR-FN alliance at the municipal level collapsed by the 1989 municipal elections, but the Stirbois family (Jean-Pierre, who died in 1988, and then his wife Marie-France Stirbois) built a very strong FN local machine in the Drouais. Marie-France Stirbois won a legislative by-election in the 2nd constituency in 1989; until her defeat in 1993 she was the only FN deputy (after Yann Piat left the party). She was also the general councillor for Dreux-Ouest between 1994 and 2001. The local FN machine collapsed when Stirbois packed her bags and moved to Nice in 1998. It was hurt by the MNR split, and it has been incompetent and useless since then (it could not even put together a list for the last local elections). Panzergirl won only 15% in Dreux in 2012, though she did better in the Drouais countryside.

Apologies for the long posts!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 14, 2013, 02:04:35 PM
You certainly don't need to apologize for long posts. I've been reading these with interest.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 14, 2013, 02:09:13 PM
I love doing this and French electoral geography is the best thing on earth.

I love that you love doing it- there is a lot to learn form about this fascinating, so close and yet so different country :)

A few takeaways and issues:
I was not aware of the fact that much of "rural" north-eastern France has a similar socio-economic structure as the remainder of low-mountainous central Europe (i.e. central / southern Germany, non-alpine Austria & Switzerland, Czech Republic, etc.) namely strong industrialisation, dominated by small and medium enterprises, and a comparatively small agricultural base (I took this info from your link - great source indeed). If you think about it, it comes as no surprise, but, as that article remarks - one tends to think of rural France as being agricultural, with the occasional winery and cheese maker here and there, and not as extension of Swiss and Baden-Würtemberg's metal processing and machine-building across the Jura and Rhine, respectively. And, of course, if half of Palatinate commutes 40-50 km each day to work with BASF in Ludwigshafen, to spend the evening back in the village working on the private vineyard, why should it be any different in Alsace.

So, in essence, a key reason for the FN's strength is a strong blue-collar population, threatened by marginalisation, that is traditionally leaning to the right (due to its village / small-town background, as well as regional particularities), and thus not expressing opposition by voting against the government, but by voting FN. Catholic adherence should dampen this effect, but isn't anymore (at least not as it used to do), as secularisation is progressing.  Protestants lack this "dampening factor" and have been swinging earlier and/or stronger towards FN. Common pattern, observable in the 1930's evolution of the NSDAP vote  in Germany and, more recently, for NPD voting in parts of Eastern Germany (which are typically "rural" and characterised by high unemployment and outmigration, especially of young females).

As you appear to have canton data at hand, it would be interesting to check whether cross-border cooperation has an influence on the voting. During the aforementioned study tour, I was surprised to learn how many Alsatians  work in Germany. A medium-scale machine builder that we visited stated that a quarter of his employees were French. On the other hand, quite a number of Germans have taken residence in Alsace (the best deal seems to be working in Germany - better social security - and living in France - lower taxes).  This German immigration appears to have not always been welcomed by locals, especially in smaller communities. As there is only a limited number of bridges across the Rhine, effects should be pretty localised, probably restricted to some 10-15 km radius around each bridge. Are there any specific voting patterns that may relate to cross-border work and immigration, e.g. an unusual vote polarisation (stronger pro-European / 'greener' vote of those commuting to Germany, higher FN vote share of the non-commuters that are alienated by immigrating Germans)?

I furthermore wonder whether there are different voting patterns between "native Alsatians" and people that have immigrated from other parts of France. At first sight, the comparison between l'Alsace bossue and Strasbourg might give some orientation on this. However, a colleague of mine used to work several years in Saverne, and lived in l'Alsace bossue, which leads me to interfere that even this area is much less culturally Alsatian than it used to be 50 years ago. Nevertheless, looking at the quotes in your linked article, I tend to think that many of the interviewed "ouvriers" were not only hampered in their expression by limited education, but also by the fact that French was not their mother tongue. As thus, we might have the typical assimilation phenomenon here: Dual marginalisation, economically and linguistically, resulting in a - seemingly paradox - nationalist voting pattern. The cognitive dissonance between culturally being Alsatian, but socially forced to act French, is resolved by affirmatively voting nationalist in repugnance of "aliens" (saying "the Turks", "the students", meaning "the Alsatian in me"). A similar pattern can be observed in the Sorbian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorbs) areas in Southern Brandenburg and Eastern Saxony, which stand out as NPD strongholds.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 14, 2013, 03:04:56 PM
If my theory on the "assimilation phenomenon" is correct, it should not only apply to the Alsace, but also to Flandre maritime. And, it apparently does, especially for 1995.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2013, 07:19:10 PM
I was not aware of the fact that much of "rural" north-eastern France has a similar socio-economic structure as the remainder of low-mountainous central Europe (i.e. central / southern Germany, non-alpine Austria & Switzerland, Czech Republic, etc.) namely strong industrialisation, dominated by small and medium enterprises, and a comparatively small agricultural base (I took this info from your link - great source indeed). If you think about it, it comes as no surprise, but, as that article remarks - one tends to think of rural France as being agricultural, with the occasional winery and cheese maker here and there, and not as extension of Swiss and Baden-Würtemberg's metal processing and machine-building across the Jura and Rhine, respectively. And, of course, if half of Palatinate commutes 40-50 km each day to work with BASF in Ludwigshafen, to spend the evening back in the village working on the private vineyard, why should it be any different in Alsace.

It is indeed a common misconception in France (and around the world) that only farmers on tractors live in "rural" areas and that the only thing going on there is farming. This is not the case, especially not in NE France, which has been a fairly blue-collar and industrialized region for decades now. I made this map (http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Cantons68-1.png) showing the largest socioprofessional category by canton/city in 1968, when about 13% of the population were agriculteurs exploitants (farm head, or farm assistant/partner; not salaried agricultural workers). You can see that "rural" NE France was not very "agricultural", even then, unlike Brittany, the inner west, the Limousin or Massif Central.

Quote
As you appear to have canton data at hand, it would be interesting to check whether cross-border cooperation has an influence on the voting. During the aforementioned study tour, I was surprised to learn how many Alsatians  work in Germany. A medium-scale machine builder that we visited stated that a quarter of his employees were French. On the other hand, quite a number of Germans have taken residence in Alsace (the best deal seems to be working in Germany - better social security - and living in France - lower taxes).  This German immigration appears to have not always been welcomed by locals, especially in smaller communities. As there is only a limited number of bridges across the Rhine, effects should be pretty localised, probably restricted to some 10-15 km radius around each bridge. Are there any specific voting patterns that may relate to cross-border work and immigration, e.g. an unusual vote polarisation (stronger pro-European / 'greener' vote of those commuting to Germany, higher FN vote share of the non-commuters that are alienated by immigrating Germans)?

There seems to be, in Alsace, a tenuous link between crossborder commuters and a lower FN vote. The FN vote is lower in  Saint-Louis, a major town in the Sundgau right across from Basel and which has a lot of crossborder commuters to Switzerland or Germany, and the whole region has rather high incomes and low FN support (as of late). There is also the matter of Wissembourg (19% Panzergirl, commune) and Lauterbourg (16% Panzergirl, commune), in the north, where there might be crossborder commuters (especially in Lauterbourg, I would suspect, given the proximity to Karlsruhe. And if the Green vote there is not strikingly high, all of these places voted yes in 2005. However, these are also historically Catholic and quite clerical regions, so confessional ties and religious practice might be a compounding factor in these cases.

That being said, the FN vote remains quite high - often very high - in smaller towns on the Rhine. I would compare this to the percentage of foreigners in the commune, but the government's atlas on such stuff (http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/) isn't working for me again (the French government is horrible).

Alsace is not the only region where such patterns are apparent. They are even more obvious in the area surrounding Geneva, which has a much larger crossborder commuter population (mixed in with a population of highly-educated foreign diplomats, academics, researchers etc). The FN vote in the cantons of Gex (13%) and Ferney-Voltaire (11%) in the Ain as well as Saint-Julien-en-Genevois in Haute-Savoie (14%) are low. There are lot of well-educated, affluent white collar professionals who commute to work in Switzerland (often for academic research or for international organizations) or who work in France for things such as CERN. The FN vote in all those places is considerably below national average, the Green vote is strong and the pro-European vote is very high (55-65% in 2005). For example:

Ferney-Voltaire (commune): Panzergirl 8.9%, Greens 2009 22.5%, OUI 63%
Prévessin-Moëns: Panzergirl 9.3%, Greens 25.7%, OUI 72%
Divonne-les-Bains: Panzergirl 10.6%, Greens 22.2%, OUI 65%
Gex: Panzergirl 14.3%, Greens 26.5%, OUI 56.6%
Saint-Genis-Pouilly: Panzergirl 13.4%, Greens 24.3%, OUI 59.1%
Thoiry: Panzergirl 12.5%, Greens 27.4%, OUI 62.3%
Saint-Julien-en-Genevois: Panzergirl 12.7%, Greens 23.8%, OUI 62.8%
Veigy-Foncenex: Panzergirl 13.1%, Greens 22%, OUI 58%


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2013, 07:39:37 PM
Quote
I furthermore wonder whether there are different voting patterns between "native Alsatians" and people that have immigrated from other parts of France. At first sight, the comparison between l'Alsace bossue and Strasbourg might give some orientation on this. However, a colleague of mine used to work several years in Saverne, and lived in l'Alsace bossue, which leads me to interfere that even this area is much less culturally Alsatian than it used to be 50 years ago. Nevertheless, looking at the quotes in your linked article, I tend to think that many of the interviewed "ouvriers" were not only hampered in their expression by limited education, but also by the fact that French was not their mother tongue. As thus, we might have the typical assimilation phenomenon here: Dual marginalisation, economically and linguistically, resulting in a - seemingly paradox - nationalist voting pattern. The cognitive dissonance between culturally being Alsatian, but socially forced to act French, is resolved by affirmatively voting nationalist in repugnance of "aliens" (saying "the Turks", "the students", meaning "the Alsatian in me"). A similar pattern can be observed in the Sorbian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorbs) areas in Southern Brandenburg and Eastern Saxony, which stand out as NPD strongholds.

Some commentators have tried to describe the FN vote in Alsace as a regional peculiarity or particularity; others (like Schwengler, who wrote the article I mentioned) dismiss that idea. While the FN vote developed 'earlier' than in rural 'inland' Lorraine, Burgundy or Champagne; I admittedly agree with Schwengler that describing the FN vote as a regional factor is not really accurate.

The hypothesis you bring up is quite interesting. Unfortunately, I have neither seen nor read much serious academic research on this particular topic or hypothesis (but it is a question which interests me a lot). This old (1998) article (http://mondediplo.com/1998/05/07bihr) from Le Monde Diplomatique came up with a similar hypothesis, which you might find interesting. I'm not sure if I agree with this idea, but it did bring up some interesting points.

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In fact, Alsace is far from having a strong, positive and self-confident identity, capable of feeding an anti-France protest vote. What the region has is more a "negative identity" - not so much an identity crisis as an identity marked by an absence of self-esteem. These are really the only terms in which one can hope to understand the region’s vote in favour of a party which is so blatantly nationalistic and xenophobic.

This "negative identity" derives in the main from the region’s progressive loss of its cultural reality. What the casual visitor to Alsace sees as signs of a rich and vibrant cultural identity (the dialect, the pretty villages along the "route des vins", the regional cuisine and local folk traditions) are increasingly an empty shell. All the research shows that in the past thirty years the local dialect - in a sense the heart of the region’s identity - is being displaced and, more importantly, impoverished by the twin impact of more extensive schooling and the dominance of the French language in the public arena. At the same time, as in other parts of the world, traditional family structures have been weakened and overtaken, and religious observance has fallen prey to growing secularisation. The only thing that more or less survives is a fairly well-developed social life. Hence, the specificity of Alsace thrives on a nostalgia which tends to idealise the past in direct proportion to its inability either to master the present or look to the future.

[...]

Although Alsace is peripheral in relation to the rest of France, in the past three decades its geographical position has placed it right at the heart of the European arena. It has become increasingly integrated into the economic realities of the Rhineland. It has a ringside seat for observing the strengthening of German dominance over Europe, and for feeling its effects, good and bad. It is certainly true that this integration has brought Alsace a large part of its prosperity, but it also accounts for a fair measure of its weakness and fragility. For example, 60,000 Alsatians have to cross the German and Swiss borders every day to go to work - a figure which has grown steadily in recent years. Suddenly, these border populations are finding themselves transformed into "immigrants".

That is not all. One fifth of the land available for house-building along the border has been bought up by Swiss and Germans, and German capital has gone about buying up Alsace firms that are either doing well or about to go under. While Alsace as a region is relatively prosperous compared to the rest of France, it cuts a poor figure in comparison to the German and Swiss neighbours with whom it shares increasingly open borders.

Another important factor is that this twofold movement of integration and satellisation of Alsace into the economic arena of the Rhineland has been taking place against a backdrop of disengagement by the state, in the form of regional decentralisation. The effect of this has been to leave Alsace to face the German giant on its own - a situation in which it becomes easy to view the giant as an ogre. This has revived all the old resentment towards France as the neglectful motherland. The feeling is that Alsace has been "abandoned" by Paris and dumped into an arena where it has no choice but to submit to the will of its richer and more powerful neighbours. All this aggravates features of the Alsace national psyche: the absence of a strong national identity and a strong desire to belong to a nation; a grudging resentment against the mother country combined with anguished appeals for assistance; and a jealous admiration of their German cousins together with uneasiness in the face of their power.

[...]

Leaving aside their sense of abandonment, the people of Alsace are saying something quite specific. They want their politicians - at the regional level, but above all nationally - to defend them better during this present phase of European integration (4). In other words, the vote for the National Front is not the expression of some hypothetical Alsace "neo-autonomism" and a reaction against "too much state". In fact it is the opposite. It is a protest against "not enough state", a desire for the state to be both closer at hand and operating more strategically.

The Alsatian dialect is still spoken by about 30-40% of the population, primarily seniors in rural northern Bas-Rhin. It has declined since 1940 and spectacularly so since 1960, French has really become the mother tongue (and often only language) for a majority of the population and it is, obviously, the sole language of work/general education/public life. And while Alsatian has resisted better than Breton or other metropolitan regional languages, the linguistic policies of the French government (since 1945 in the case of Alsace) have created an environment where regional languages were traditionally frowned upon by the state and, for a lot of Alsatian speakers, created a climate where they were not overly activist or concerned about their language and policies to defend/uphold it. There are, to be sure, a number of Alsatian speakers (like Breton speakers) who are activists and militant about their language and have led campaigns for bilingual (trilingual with German in Alsace) education (more success in recent years) and so forth; but they are a minority, and as voters I believe they would be more inclined to vote for the Greens who have been unambiguous in their defense of regional languages.
(Insee study on Alsatian language, 2002: http://www.insee.fr/fr/insee_regions/alsace/themes/cpar12_1.pdf)

The FN has tended to play a contradictory game on the issue, in contrast. In Corsica, the Le Pens have usually won a good number of nationalist voters (Corsican nationalism has a strong xenophobic element) - especially in 2012 - and Panzergirl did not hesitate to play, hypocritically, a very regionalist note when she campaigned in Ajaccio - finishing her rally with the Corsican national anthem. Given that Alsatian regionalism is also rather right-wing and isolationist, one could think a similar factor is at work for the FN in Alsace as well. On the other hand, the FN also bills itself as a defender of national unity and the French state against regional nationalisms and communitarianism. It is one of the lone opponents to the creation of a single regional assembly in Alsace (merging the regional and departmental legislatures) which will be voted on in a few weeks (in April, not sure of the date); but at the same time, I recall that Patrick Binder, the FN boss in the region, claims to favour the teaching of Alsatian in schools and supports bi/trilingualism.

I must admit that I am a bit skeptical to your hypothesis, though I can neither prove it or disprove it. I still think that, by far, the traditional variables (education, socioprofessional status, income/class, distance to urban centres) plays a much larger role in explaining the FN vote in Alsace (and other regions); and the decline of the FN vote in urban Alsace is a recent phenomenon which is in line with the national trend of the FN losing strength quite rapidly in almost every single major urban centre. We should also take into account that most voters in that region, with the exception of older voters, would have been educated and socialized (post-1960s) primarily in French.

In Flanders, I would think the FN vote is also primarily due to the usual demographic factors: it is also a pretty blue-collar region, with many small industrial towns (Dunkirk, Gravelines, Watten, Hazebrouck, Merville); and it also a typically ex-rural, 'exurban' type of region with few local opportunities or jobs.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 15, 2013, 08:19:54 AM
There seems to be, in Alsace, a tenuous link between crossborder commuters and a lower FN vote. The FN vote is lower in  Saint-Louis, a major town in the Sundgau right across from Basel and which has a lot of crossborder commuters to Switzerland or Germany, and the whole region has rather high incomes and low FN support (as of late). There is also the matter of Wissembourg (19% Panzergirl, commune) and Lauterbourg (16% Panzergirl, commune), in the north, where there might be crossborder commuters (especially in Lauterbourg, I would suspect, given the proximity to Karlsruhe. And if the Green vote there is not strikingly high, all of these places voted yes in 2005. However, these are also historically Catholic and quite clerical regions, so confessional ties and religious practice might be a compounding factor in these cases.

The Sundgau is showing up so clearly as low FN territory on your maps that I did not even mention it. As to Lauterbourg and Wissembourg, cross-border commuting might not only go towards Karlsruhe, but also towards the Daimler Benz truck factories in Rastatt and Wörth (their main truck production sites worldwide). This, in turn, might explain lower Green votes, which should not be the favourite party of truck assembly workers. [Note in this respect that the Rhineland-Palatinate transport authorities have over the last years put quite some effort in cross-border train connections from Lauterbourg & Wissembourg to Wörth (hourly trains, 17 min. from Lauterbourg, 36 min. from Wissembourg, 7 min. walk from Wörth train station to the Daimler plant)]

That being said, the FN vote remains quite high - often very high - in smaller towns on the Rhine. I would compare this to the percentage of foreigners in the commune, but the government's atlas on such stuff (http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/) isn't working for me again (the French government is horrible).

The link does neither work for me. Anyway, as long there is no further breakdown on nationalities (especially Germans/ Swiss vs. Turks / Maghreb) available, I wonder how much the figures could really tell us.

Nevertheless, a community-level analysis for the area south of Strasbourg might be interesting, as bridges there are less frequent than further to the north. By my count, there are bridges across the Rhine near Eschau / Illkirch, Marckolsheim, Vogelsheim / Neuf-Brisach, Fessenheim, Chalampé, Otmarsheim, and St. Louis. Especially the 50km strip between Eschau and Mackolsheim could be interesting to analyse for local variation.
A similar analysis for Sarregemuines - one of the few arrondissements in the region where FN still increased its vote share in 2002 - might be equally telling. I would assume that most of the FN growth there came from the eastern part of the canton, which has rather poor road connection to Germany, while the western part, especially Sarregemuines proper, could have swung against FN.  Within the arrondissement de Wissembourg, I would assume the opposite pattern - the north-eastern part, including the town of Wissembourg,  having less FN votes than the south-western part.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 15, 2013, 12:22:08 PM
Some commentators have tried to describe the FN vote in Alsace as a regional peculiarity or particularity; others (like Schwengler, who wrote the article I mentioned) dismiss that idea. While the FN vote developed 'earlier' than in rural 'inland' Lorraine, Burgundy or Champagne; I admittedly agree with Schwengler that describing the FN vote as a regional factor is not really accurate.

From all that I have seen so far (thanks again for the great information you provide), it has become clear that the rural blue-collar FN vote is definitely not a regional phenomenon that is unique to Alsace, but common for most of France except the inland south-central areas.

Nevertheless, the question remains as to why this phenomenon (a) has appeared so early and strongly in Alsace, even though the region did not have any Poujadist tradition, and (b) why FN votes across most of Alsace are now declining steadily, in contrast to many other "rural" areas (Picardie, Champagne-Ardennes, Limousin), where FN growth continues to be strong. Both facts indicate to me that, aside from socio-economic factors, demographic patterns may play a role as well.

The Alsatian dialect is still spoken by about 30-40% of the population, primarily seniors in rural northern Bas-Rhin. It has declined since 1940 and spectacularly so since 1960, French has really become the mother tongue (and often only language) for a majority of the population and it is, obviously, the sole language of work/general education/public life.
(Insee study on Alsatian language, 2002: http://www.insee.fr/fr/insee_regions/alsace/themes/cpar12_1.pdf)

From your linked article I take that Saverne-Sarre Union, i.e. the area investigated by Schwengler, is among the strongest Alsatian-speaking regions ("plus de la moitié des adultes"), Since the "rural" part, i.e. areas outside Saverne, should have higher shares of Alsatian-speakers (probably 60% or more), it is pretty safe to infer that a good part of FN voters in l'Alsace bossue are native Alsatian speakers.
The interviews cited by Schwengler furthermore indicate a particular strong FN support in the 45-65 age group (some retirees, others talking about "copains" older than 50, etc.). Unfortunately, I could not find any information about when these interviews were taken, but sometimes around 1997-1999 seems likely. As thus, Schwengler's work points at extraordinarily strong FN support among male, blue-collar, native Alsatian speakers born between 1935 and 1955, That is exactly the generation which should have suffered the strongest assimilation pressure (post WW II, pre European Community). Moreover, transfer of Alsatian to the next generation began to steeply decline in the early 1960s, i.e. for the children of this 1935-1955 generation. 

The rest is demographical basics - the "assimilation generation" slowly dies out (the male part faster than the presumably less FN-affine female part), and is replaced by a young generation for which assimilation is much less an issue than for their grandparents. Hence, FN vote shares gradually recede to the French standard (if there is anything like that).

()
1999 data.

The hypothesis you bring up is quite interesting. Unfortunately, I have neither seen nor read much serious academic research on this particular topic or hypothesis (but it is a question which interests me a lot). This old (1998) article (http://mondediplo.com/1998/05/07bihr) from Le Monde Diplomatique came up with a similar hypothesis, which you might find interesting. I'm not sure if I agree with this idea, but it did bring up some interesting points.

The Le Monde article describes pretty well what we heard and felt during that study tour. I vividly remember the President of the Strasbourg Chamber of Commerce enraging himself on local, regional and national politicians problematizing Alsace's relation to Germany, instead of recognising the opportunities it creates for, e.g., Strasbourg's retail sector or the Strasbourg airport. ("What are they discussing about? We are having the third lowest unemployment rate in all of France! Where is the problem?"). [N.B.: He was referring especially to UMP politicians - not the typical targets of a CC president,]

I first caught attention of the "assimilation phenomenon" through an early 1990s German newspaper article citing Polish comments on the emergence of Neo-Nazis in Germany. These Polish comments linked the phenomenon to assimilation pressure from the unification process, resulting in cognitive dissonance, which was resolved through affirmative "pro-German" action, coupled with xenophobia (including anti-Polish sentiment). Intrigued by this idea, I have over the years tried to apply it to several other contexts, including anti-Western sentiment in Muslim countries, and found it working astonishingly well. [I have for some time already intended to do a separate thread on socio-economic change in the Muslim world, but so far haven't found the time for it].

As to Sorbian areas, the only research I have available is this (http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/5221/pdf/kopke_S129_149.pdf) analysis of NPD/DVU performance during the 2008 Brandenburg state elections (in German), which concludes:

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High absolute figures [for far-right votes] can furthermore [in addition to the densely populated Berlin periphery] be observed in the southern part of Brandenburg (..) and in Oder-Spree and Dahme-Spreewald.
We have examined several hypotheses (..) on the emergence of far-right voting behaviour. For this, socio-economic structural data, aspects relating to urban development and regional economic policy, and labour market and demographic data was used. (..) On the spatial level of communities, we could not identify any meaningful correlations. (..) Only a few plausible findings have appeared: (..) In communities with elevated unemployment among certain age groups, the DVU share increased. For the NPD, the relation was negative. (..) Furthermore, in rather rural communities distant from Berlin, the far-right vote share was around one point higher than in more suburban communities within the metro area. 

In other words: Sorbian areas show up as far-right strongholds, and none of the traditional hypotheses can explain why.
 


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 15, 2013, 04:09:40 PM
Addendum to my first post of today: I found this quite recent (Dec. 2011) INSEE dossier on Alsatians working in Germany and Switzerland (http://www.insee.fr/fr/insee_regions/alsace/themes/ch_revue/cpa2011_24/cpa2011_24.pdf). Nice map on p.3 - would be interesting to compare to 2007 and 2012 village-level election maps (if available).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2013, 04:27:06 PM
The link does neither work for me. Anyway, as long there is no further breakdown on nationalities (especially Germans/ Swiss vs. Turks / Maghreb) available, I wonder how much the figures could really tell us.

My general assumption would be that any foreigners in small towns outside urban and suburban areas would be far more likely to be white EU/European nationals (Germans/Swiss) rather than North African or Turkish, given how non-white foreign population is concentrated in urban/suburban/industrial areas or in agricultural areas dependent on a foreign workforce (fruit/vegetables farming in the SE, winemakers).

Quote
Nevertheless, a community-level analysis for the area south of Strasbourg might be interesting, as bridges there are less frequent than further to the north. By my count, there are bridges across the Rhine near Eschau / Illkirch, Marckolsheim, Vogelsheim / Neuf-Brisach, Fessenheim, Chalampé, Otmarsheim, and St. Louis. Especially the 50km strip between Eschau and Mackolsheim could be interesting to analyse for local variation.
A similar analysis for Sarregemuines - one of the few arrondissements in the region where FN still increased its vote share in 2002 - might be equally telling. I would assume that most of the FN growth there came from the eastern part of the canton, which has rather poor road connection to Germany, while the western part, especially Sarregemuines proper, could have swung against FN.  Within the arrondissement de Wissembourg, I would assume the opposite pattern - the north-eastern part, including the town of Wissembourg,  having less FN votes than the south-western part.

I'm a bit pressed for time, so I can't do tons of communal analysis but you can easily look at the data (commune or other levels) by yourself on the OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12). From a cursory first glance, there does not appear to be significant differences between communes with a bridge and surrounding areas. I believe the same is the case for Sarreguemines.

It is very important to point out (not sure why I didn't make this clear earlier with the map) that a lot of the 1995-2002 swings against the FN are due to Bruno Mégret's MNR candidacy which did rather well in rural Alsace and eastern Moselle in 2002. Although Alsace was one of the regions where Le Pen badly underperformed the theoretical FN+MNR first round total in the runoff in 2002, the first round total far-right (FN+MNR) vote was universally higher than the 1995 FN vote in Sarreguemines and rural Alsace.

From all that I have seen so far (thanks again for the great information you provide), it has become clear that the rural blue-collar FN vote is definitely not a regional phenomenon that is unique to Alsace, but common for most of France except the inland south-central areas.

Nevertheless, the question remains as to why this phenomenon (a) has appeared so early and strongly in Alsace, even though the region did not have any Poujadist tradition, and (b) why FN votes across most of Alsace are now declining steadily, in contrast to many other "rural" areas (Picardie, Champagne-Ardennes, Limousin), where FN growth continues to be strong. Both facts indicate to me that, aside from socio-economic factors, demographic patterns may play a role as well.

Reasons for (a) may include:
-Alsace's urbanization, given that the FN vote in 1984 developed almost exclusively around large urban/suburban areas or industrial towns (Alsace, of course, has both) and that the FN vote extended into rural/exurban areas from those points by 1988.

As for (b), a number of ideas have been proposed by various researchers:
-Low unemployment: while the FN can do well in areas with high or low unemployment, the areas where the FN is strongest with Panzergirl are those with high unemployment - like the industrial parts of Moselle. Alsace has very low unemployment rates by national standards, even in blue-collar regions like l'Alsace bossue. Moselle is still suffering the effects of deindustrialization (see: Gandrange, obviously) while Alsace is not being hit as hard. Its closer economic integration with Germany might be a contributing factor.

-Urban/suburban population growth: clearly, the 2002-2012 map shows that the FN vote declined, in very large part, in urban or suburban areas: Strasbourg, Mulhouse, Colmar, the Sundgau, Metz, Forbach proper, Sarreguemines proper, Nancy etc. The FN vote in 2012 was higher than the 2002 FN vote in the Bouxwiller/Sarre-Union area, Saales/Schirmeck, and in much of the Haut-Rhin outside urban areas.

-The "right-wing" vs. "ni-niste" FN vote: In her 2002 book Ces francais qui votent Le Pen, Nonna Mayer (a specialist on the FN) develops her argument around the existence of 2 FN electorates: one naturally far-right/right-wing and conservative, which voted for the RPR-UDF in the past and can still vote UMP without any problems, which tends to be older/more clerical/wealthier/slightly more educated/less blue-collar; and the protest/"ni-ni" voter who has no clear partisan affiliation (many come from the left), is not ideologically far-right and is younger/irreligious/poorer/unemployed or blue-collar/less educated. The FN vote in Alsace isn't anything like the FN vote in PACA, but the FN vote in Alsace is clearly not like the FN vote in the NPDC or even the bassin houiller in Moselle. Sarkozy primarily gained FN votes from "right-wing" FN voters in 2007 but didn't gain as much with "ni-ni" votes and the patterns were similar in 2012.

The Alsatian FN vote, imo, was/is less a vote of social despair and rejection of all parties (like the FN vote in the NPDC tends to be), but a more traditional conservative/far-right vote primarily concerned by immigration, security, national identity. This type of FN voter voted Sarko by the first round in 2007, and they generally held up pretty well for him in 2012. Alsace having lower unemployment also contributed, I would think; there would be less grounds for a "revolutionary" vote of despair/rejection. Panzergirl didn't do well in a demographically similar area, Cluses-Scionzier (Haute-Savoie): right-wing working-class area where Daddy got huge results in 95/02 (unemployment is also below average there, afaik).

Quote
From your linked article I take that Saverne-Sarre Union, i.e. the area investigated by Schwengler, is among the strongest Alsatian-speaking regions ("plus de la moitié des adultes"), Since the "rural" part, i.e. areas outside Saverne, should have higher shares of Alsatian-speakers (probably 60% or more), it is pretty safe to infer that a good part of FN voters in l'Alsace bossue are native Alsatian speakers.
The interviews cited by Schwengler furthermore indicate a particular strong FN support in the 45-65 age group (some retirees, others talking about "copains" older than 50, etc.). Unfortunately, I could not find any information about when these interviews were taken, but sometimes around 1997-1999 seems likely. As thus, Schwengler's work points at extraordinarily strong FN support among male, blue-collar, native Alsatian speakers born between 1935 and 1955, That is exactly the generation which should have suffered the strongest assimilation pressure (post WW II, pre European Community). Moreover, transfer of Alsatian to the next generation began to steeply decline in the early 1960s, i.e. for the children of this 1935-1955 generation. 

The rest is demographical basics - the "assimilation generation" slowly dies out (the male part faster than the presumably less FN-affine female part), and is replaced by a young generation for which assimilation is much less an issue than for their grandparents. Hence, FN vote shares gradually recede to the French standard (if there is anything like that).

You do indeed bring up a very good point, but again I can neither prove it nor disprove it. Unfortunately, French work on electoral geography/voting patterns tends to shy away from explanations based on regional identity, regional particularities, dialects/languages and so forth (an interesting and worthwhile angle to explore, I would say).

As somebody who sympathizes very much with progressive regionalist movements, my view on all this is that there is very much a pensee unique on this topic in France which tends to either downplay, obscure or deny outright any kinds of regional diversities and clear regional particularities (on topics other than food/music/culture/dialect).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 15, 2013, 08:20:52 PM
From all that I have seen so far (thanks again for the great information you provide), it has become clear that the rural blue-collar FN vote is definitely not a regional phenomenon that is unique to Alsace, but common for most of France except the inland south-central areas.

Nevertheless, the question remains as to why this phenomenon (a) has appeared so early and strongly in Alsace, even though the region did not have any Poujadist tradition, and (b) why FN votes across most of Alsace are now declining steadily, in contrast to many other "rural" areas (Picardie, Champagne-Ardennes, Limousin), where FN growth continues to be strong. Both facts indicate to me that, aside from socio-economic factors, demographic patterns may play a role as well.

Reasons for (a) may include:
-Alsace's urbanization, given that the FN vote in 1984 developed almost exclusively around large urban/suburban areas or industrial towns (Alsace, of course, has both) and that the FN vote extended into rural/exurban areas from those points by 1988.

Does not really convince me, at least not when looking at your maps (village-level maps might tell a different story, though). First of all, while the 1984 FN vote was strongest in large urban / suburban areas, it reached already more than 10.5% in most of Alsace / Lorraine, except for a few areas to the north-east of Strasbourg.
Secondly, how come the FN vote extending so strongly into 'rural' Alsace / Lorraine, without a similar phenomenon becoming apparent around Belfort, Nancy, or to the west of Metz?. I mean, look at the 1988 FN map - it is virtually screaming out "here is where the Romanic-Germanic language divide used to be".  [Btw. the 1988 map also appears to give a pretty good delineation of the more secularised parts of traditional provencal and langue d'oc speaking areas - might be an interesting issue for next week].

---

I have played around a bit with your OFV link, and made some interesting observations on 1995-2012 trends, but I am too tired now to write it all down - will do it tomorrow.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2013, 09:02:21 PM
Please understand that I'm not, at all, disagreeing with your theories/hypotheses (as I have said numerous times). I'm kind of trying to play Devil's advocate (if I can use such a term) with these theories.

I do hope you're interested by other regions than Alsace, because as much as it's interesting, it's not the only interesting region in France. :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 16, 2013, 06:06:17 AM
Please understand that I'm not, at all, disagreeing with your theories/hypotheses (as I have said numerous times). I'm kind of trying to play Devil's advocate (if I can use such a term) with these theories.
Of course I understand that - as I appreciate dialectics as a means to gain deeper insight.

I do hope you're interested by other regions than Alsace, because as much as it's interesting, it's not the only interesting region in France. :)
Definitely - hence my comment yesterday on Provence and Languedoc, or earlier questions about the Larzac, Brittany and the Atlantic south-west.

To clarify my approach a bit: I like to look at new political movements first, as they tend to mark socio-economic changes. Once these changes have been identified, it may become easier to distinguish underlying, more stable patterns, which are shaping the political centre. Hence my interest in the FN and the Greens.
Within this approach, I find it interesting to discuss why certain patterns that ultimately become quite uniform (e.g. the 'rural' / exurban FN vote) appear earlier in some regions than in others (and maybe not appear at all in a third group of regions).  [Disclaimer - I have done quite some professional work on innovation generation and dissemination, including its spatial dimension].

And, of course, I try to base my learning to the extent possible on 'field experience', i.e. may first of all focus on regions that I already have visited. [Disclaimer II: These include (aside from Alsace): Rhone-Alpes (student exchange), Marseille / Cassis (holidays), Corsica (holidays), Provence  / Languedoc / Larzac (holidays), Charente Maritime / Ile de Ré (holidays), Flandre maritime (holidays), Pyrenées Atlantiique (another study tour, this time with a Georgian delegation), and, of course, Paris].  That does not mean I am not interested in other regions - to the opposite.

In that sense, I intended, once we have finished with the Alsace, to close up the FN part with a look at the Mediterranean coast and its 'hinterland'. Greens would be next, and with the Alsace and Ile de France already discussed, the obvious focus here is Rhône-Alpes (Normandy also looks interesting). After that - maybe a look at regionalist movements and their reflection on the other parties' vote, and then turning towards the political centre (PS vs. PR / UMP) ..

Having said that - everything you have published here so far has been highly interesting, and if there are other maps / patterns / processes you find worthwhile to present, please go ahead, I am sure I will like them as well :).

 


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on March 16, 2013, 05:16:12 PM
That OVF site is really great - beats everything I have seen so far, including German electoral geographics sites!

I have used it to prepare 1995-2012 swing maps for the Le Pen family (canton level). First the national map, which shows a decline in the major urban centres, the Paris and Lyon peripheries, Alsace & Moselle, and Rhône-Alpes,  and gains almost everywhere else.

()

Now a close-up on Alsace / Moselle:

()

First of all, let's notice that in Alsace, the FM decline is as much a "rural" than an urban phenomenon. The "rural" cantons of Obernai and Barr, e.g., showed a much stronger decline in Le Pen votes than urban Colmar (Colmar-Sud even swung towards Le Pen).

Along the Rhine, two cantons with above-average pro Le Pen swing stand out, namely Seltz in the north and Neuf-Brisach south-east of Colmar. In Moselle, the Sarregemuines arrondissement, especially Rohrbach-les-Binche has swung quite strongly towards Le Pen. All aforementioned cases, however, were among the weakest Le Pen cantons in 1995, so their 2012 swing can to some extend be considered a reversion to the mean.

I have also done a community-level analysis, which, however, does not add much information, aside from indicating that south of Strasbourg, the FN vote along the Rhine tends to be slightly higher and more resilient the more distant a village is from the next bridge.

As i have uploaded the data to OVF, I may use it to prepare further close-ups of  canton- or community-level swing maps in case of interest


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on June 06, 2013, 07:27:07 PM
Random bump for this amusing map:

()

The Schwartzenberg/Sarajevo list was a leftie list which strongly supported humanitarian intervention in Bosnia. It was basically made up quasi-entirely of leftie academics, from good (Touraine) to bad (BHL!).

Patterns are nothing too extraordinary though.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 09, 2013, 03:12:15 AM
Random bump for this amusing map:

()

The Schwartzenberg/Sarajevo list was a leftie list which strongly supported humanitarian intervention in Bosnia. It was basically made up quasi-entirely of leftie academics, from good (Touraine) to bad (BHL!).

Patterns are nothing too extraordinary though.

I'm not sure, but doesn't it look somewhat like the old PSU?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on June 09, 2013, 09:30:14 AM
Another, more famous, episode from 1994:

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 09, 2013, 09:39:34 AM
That looks surprisingly Commie like, at least in very general terms.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 09, 2013, 01:19:35 PM
At least, a very "old left" pattern, with these very strong results on the mediterranean coast.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 09, 2013, 01:22:10 PM
And also Picardy.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2013, 09:00:25 AM

May I say that this is marvelously predictive of the "new" FN electorate of the following years ?

"Popular" left, some "lost" rural areas, very old small-industries areas,...

Apart from Bouches-du-Rhône (but it was just the favourite son effect), these are the areas where Panzergirl has made the biggest gains.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 13, 2013, 08:23:53 AM
Many of Hash's maps have become unreadable :(


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 13, 2013, 08:35:56 AM
Ugh Photobucket is acting up again. I'm really sorry guys, I'll try to fix that annoying thing somehow (eg: thank God for Google). To compensate, I should post some very interesting maps of 2007 and 2009 in the next few days before I leave.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010 - now with precinct maps
Post by: Hash on August 15, 2013, 02:11:56 PM
Here's the surprise I was talking about:

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()

Similar maps (and more) can be done at the precinct level for anywhere in France (which has more than one polling station) for 2007, 2009 and 2010 elections.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: MaxQue on August 15, 2013, 03:33:15 PM
There is voters in Vincennes Park?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 15, 2013, 03:41:42 PM

Both precincts are connected with inhabited areas outside the park, except that one precinct is non-contiguous.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Zanas on August 15, 2013, 04:27:05 PM
That was my first question as well ^_^ Really amazed to see the PS winning so few precincts in the européennes of 2009. I knew EELV made a strong showing, but I would have expected PS to win more in popular areas like 13, 18, 19 and 20.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 15, 2013, 05:00:59 PM
I've started work on Marseille, again both 2007-R2 and 2009 Euros. The Euros map is a fun mess: UMP, EELV, PS, FN and FG all won precincts, sometimes with less than 20%. However, it won't be up for at least two weeks.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on August 16, 2013, 01:29:14 PM
On the off chance that somebody cares

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: windjammer on August 16, 2013, 04:43:55 PM
Great job Hashemite.
And yes, partisanship is really depressing in France...


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on August 20, 2013, 10:26:37 AM

Thank you. I have just been very richly rewarded for idly clicking this thread again.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2013, 02:47:20 PM
Awesome maps! :) I can't wait for Marseille at the Europeans, must be a fascinating map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 28, 2013, 08:30:04 AM
- If you know Paris well (I mean, almost street by street), these maps aren't surprising at all.
Paris is so densely populated and built, that you can guess almost exactly the results of each precinct.
What is absolutety fantastic is to see this on a finely designed map: thanks a lot, Hash :D !

- As for 2009, the only precincts won by the PS are minority ones:
Blacks and Arabs in the 18th, 19th and 20th arrondissements, sort-of-Roms and Arabs in the 14th, Asians and Blacks in the 13th. Quite funny.

- When you see the 2007 map, it makes me sad again about the 1st and the 15th arrondissements (and of course the 6th, but that's no surprise): one day, they'll be competitive for the left :( though it's far slower than I thought in the 15th.
Of course, conversely, some others can be won back by the right, but not the 14th, dear stupid NKM: I've alaways said that the 9th should be the first target, then the 12th AND the 4th, then the 2nd (while keeping the 5th, of course).
The 14th is a quintessential bobo arrondissement: even with the quintessential bobo rightist NKM, I can't believe it will switch back to the UMP.

- Hash, was your sentence "Similar maps (and more) can be done at the precinct level for anywhere in France (which has more than one polling station) for 2007, 2009 and 2010 elections" a call for tender ;) ?
Bordeaux and Strasbourg would be my favourites. If you hae time to make just one for 2007, maybe Strasbourg, as there should be an interesting result, with the inner island in the center and some very different neighbourhoods around.
Bordeaux may be quite mixed and funny.
Whereas Rennes would be boring (too weirdly organized as a city: no real coherence).
Lyons, Perpignan and Tours may be other good candidates, but I'm not an expert.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: minionofmidas on August 28, 2013, 12:19:05 PM
Full story pretty please!?


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: big bad fab on August 29, 2013, 03:59:26 PM

See this small lil' pink area in the 2009 map, in the right down corner of 14th arrondissement ?
This is Porte de Vanves, a small neighbourhood inhabited by "former" Roms (I mean, settled French gypsies; sorry for the erroneous confusion between the 2 populations, though ancestries may be identical).
BTW, still 10 years ago, they used to fight against some Arab minorities from Losserand street, not far from Porte de Vanves, just to the north of it.

These small pecularities of Paris are fascinating, though mostly ignored.

All around Paris, just between the "peripherique" (ring road) and the "inner boulevards", you've got very specific neighbourhoods, artificially put one besides the other. And, mostly (except int he west, of course) with ethnic minorities.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on September 03, 2013, 07:41:02 PM
Finally, here's Marseille 2009

()

As promised, a real mess: tons of precinct with near 2-4 way ties, tons won with only 15-25% of the vote, and wins for five parties (UMP, EELV, PS, FN, FG).

Rennes (2007):

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Saint-Malo (2007):
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Upcoming maps (2007 first, 2009 and/or 2010 later)
Strasbourg
Bordeaux
Lyon
Rouen
Dreux
Vernouillet
Perpignan
Tours


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2013, 01:03:15 PM
...wow. :D


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on September 04, 2013, 06:28:34 PM
Strasbourg:

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()

Strong PS performance (second ahead of the Greens with about 23%) in Strasbourg in 2009 because the PS' top candidate in the region was Catherine Trautmann, MEP and former mayor of Strasbourg (1989-2001)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on September 04, 2013, 06:38:29 PM
Great! Keep 'em coming! Can't wait to see Rouen and Dreux, especially.

So there isn't a source for the 2002 Presidential by precinct? Too bad.

I'm intrigued by the geographic fragmentation of the left vote in Strasbourg. Obviously the voters in the central city are of a different leftist persuasion than those in the western fringes, of course.  In the Euro map, there's almost a concentric ring of UMP precincts insulating the (presumably bourgeois) Greens from the (presumably proletarian) Socialists!


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 04, 2013, 06:44:53 PM
The Marseille maps - in particular - are wonderful.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on September 08, 2013, 08:47:26 AM
marseille municipal election 2008

same key color for each party/alliance


red : best score
pink : 2nd and 3rd score
yellow : 4th score
green : 5th score
light blue : 6 and 7th score
blue : least score


at the exception of the 1st and 3rd sector, it is interesting to note that each sector of Marseille is specific.

UMP
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_________________________________________________________
PS and other left
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_________________________________________________________
FN
()
_________________________________________________________

MODEM
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_________________________________________________________
LCR and other far left
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_________________________________________________________


sector dominance
()





Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on September 21, 2013, 11:42:39 PM
Here's the FN vote in the 2010 regionals (R1) in Marseille by precinct. Panzerdaddy won about 21.5% of the vote then, which isn't far from what Panzergirl - I think - won last year (22%). A very interesting map.

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 14, 2013, 03:09:29 PM
The results of yesterday's municipal PS primary in Marseille by arrondissment

()

Very much a friends-and-neighbors vote, but some fairly interesting patterns in there for the candidates and the turnout levels. Details upon request.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on October 22, 2013, 06:45:24 PM
If anybody at all cares...

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 22, 2013, 07:09:24 PM
That's a deeply unfortunate map.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 07, 2013, 10:05:32 PM
An interesting map showing the gains made by Alain Poher between the first and second round in 1969, as a % of registered voters. Some rather interesting, but ultimately unsurprising, patterns.

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 08, 2013, 11:09:42 AM
If some folks are interested...

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 08, 2013, 01:42:19 PM
Great work, as always.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 08, 2013, 02:23:49 PM


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on December 10, 2013, 11:31:49 AM
Some human interest stories on Brachay (52), a tiny village most famous for giving 72% to Panzergirl.

http://www.lemonde.fr/municipales/article/2013/12/10/brachay-au-front-du-terroir_3527514_1828682.html
http://www.rue89.com/rue89-presidentielle/2012/04/05/dans-ces-villages-de-haute-marne-vote-fn-et-ne-saime-pas-230635?com=select&c=2

Pretty interesting stuff, although as always the media likes to overgeneralize things and grasp at straws.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 20, 2014, 01:41:56 PM
A few months ago a guy in France sent me the Atlas électoral de la France 1848-2001 which is one of the best books in human history for somebody like me. Here are a few pictures of the coolest maps in the book:

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More forthcoming if there's any interest.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Franknburger on February 20, 2014, 05:27:05 PM
Now explain the pattern :)


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Zanas on February 21, 2014, 05:23:46 AM
A few things :
- What's with this Charentais tropism of bonapartist vote ? I wouldn't have expected it but it's huge !
- Happy to see, even if I knew I'd see it, such a republican Limousin. Just a tad bit disappointed to see a bonapartist candidate in first in the Millevaches Plateau of all places ! Explanation ? Well, I'll try to seek one myself.
- Ariège is also a solid and continuing stronghold of our side.
- Very, very interesting to see to observe Paris' East-West divide in the legislative election, pretty much exactly the same as today !


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on February 21, 2014, 02:34:39 PM
- Very, very interesting to see to observe Paris' East-West divide in the legislative election, pretty much exactly the same as today !

More detailed stuff on Paris from that era:
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I'll explain some of the main patterns a bit later on (as far as I have the knowledge to do so).


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Zanas on February 22, 2014, 08:58:53 AM
And thus we see why the 5th is winnable by the left, whereas the 6th isn't.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on February 25, 2014, 09:14:02 PM
I pick up where Hash left off. Bordeaux '07.

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Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: homelycooking on March 07, 2014, 10:59:53 PM
Whee! I can't stop doing this.

()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Hash on November 13, 2014, 05:21:25 PM
To upkeep this thread, I'll post a few maps of the EP results by constituency:

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And a very telling map of a PS shellacking

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 13, 2014, 08:04:50 PM
Not EP 2014, but here is the PS' comparable shellacking 20 years ago:

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: morgieb on November 17, 2014, 12:30:58 AM
What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..

And the South (Sud) to the PS?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: swl on November 17, 2014, 04:30:24 AM
What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..
You can compare with the unemployment map:

 ()


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: Colbert on November 17, 2014, 02:20:31 PM
To upkeep this thread, I'll post a few maps of the EP results by constituency:

()

And a very telling map of a PS shellacking

()



have you the same maps but with numbers ending by 0 or 5 ?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2014, 09:08:35 AM
What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..
You can compare with the unemployment map:

 ()

While you can definitely tie to the two maps together (and there's no denying that unemployment is the result/cause of obvious socioeconomic difficulties and deprivation), this is actually a very simplistic (and actually rather inaccurate) way of explaining something which is very complex. For way of example, I looked quickly at the correlation (at the cantonal level) between the 2014 FN vote and the 2009 unemployment rate (the most recent year I could map at the cantonal level - not 100% accurate, but the general geographic patterns haven't changed much) - the correlation coefficient was only 0.18 (and 0.14 in 2012). In 2014, the strongest correlation between unemployment and party vote was for the FG (0.35), EXG (0.28) and, in the negative direction, for the UDI-MoDem (-0.27) and UMP (-0.27).

If you want a variable which is able to explain a good deal of the FN vote, it is, since 2007, the ouvrier (manual worker) category. Since 2007, there has been a rather strong (but obviously not perfect) correlation of about 0.46 between the FN vote and the percentage of manual workers in the population. Prior to 2007, the correlation between the two was quite weak - 0.21 in 2002 and 0.14 in 1995; once you consider which kind of FN voters defected to Sarko in 2007 and the kind of FN voters which the FN attracted after 2010 it makes a lot of sense.

Of course, I'm not a big fan of explaining voting patterns by relying on a single variable because it's infinitely more complex than that. The FN electorate remains very composite, although united by certain shared concerns/views, and it attracts voters from different social horizons for different reasons. However, if you want to boil things down, factors such as socioeconomic deprivation, anti-immigration feelings (quite often mixed in with racism, but not always the case), anti-system sentiments, feelings of social exclusion (insiders vs. outsiders) and resentment are the most important for all parts of the FN electorate. I could obviously write a lot more, but I feel like I've written about this already somewhere else, and nobody cares about an effortpost.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on June 18, 2015, 10:29:26 AM
Cross-posted from Dark Atlas - some rejigged maps of old runoffs, now with 5% colour schemes!

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()

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on May 20, 2016, 11:09:54 AM
()

The most significant differences between Balladur's 1995 support and the map of Catholic religious practice are wealthy areas, with Balladur receiving some of his strongest numbers from wealthy urban and suburban areas. This explains, among other things, the pattern to Balladur's support in Ile-de-France, in Marseille, along the Mediterranean Riviera, in Rouen, in Lille (and the NPDC in general terms) and the Lyon urban area (and further adds to an existing centrist base in Haute-Savoie). Balladur was the more 'liberal' and Europhile candidate (especially compared to the populist Chirac of 1995, with his fracture sociale and whatnot), and he has snobbish mannerisms, which made him popular with wealthy right-wing voters (although Chirac still outperformed Balladur throughout the Paris region). This personality, as well as his record as the incumbent prime minister at the time, explains why Balladur performed particularly badly in low-income and even middle-income areas. The stark wealth gap in Balladur's support is most pronounced in the Paris region, with the major difference between places like Neuilly-sur-Seine (33.2%) and, say, Sarcelles (11%).

Balladur's poorer results in the Cantal and Haute-Loire, two fairly 'clerical' departments with a strong Christian-dem tradition (particularly Haute-Loire) is because of Chirac's extended regional favourite son vote, in la chiraquie.

()
A few things are to be expected:
-Bayrou's favourite son boost in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, +15.7% in his constituency and +10% in the other constituencies of the Béarn and Pau. A more modest gain in Bayonne (+3%) and actually a minor loss (-0.9%) in the Hendaye/Saint-Jean-de-Luz constituency, because of the affluent resort town of Saint-Jean-de-Luz.
-Chirac's favourite son effort in Corrèze and 'greater chiraquie' is erased, and Bayrou gained over 14% in Chirac's old Corrèze constituency. You can see how big Chirac's regional boost was, extending well into Haute-Vienne, Creuse, Cantal, Puy-de-Dôme, the Lot and parts of Dordogne and Haute-Loire even.
-In the southwest as a whole, the loss of the Chirac regional effect and the addition of the Bayrou regional effect in its stead, as well as Bayrou's strong performance with centre-left voters (Ipsos' 2007 exit poll says that Bayrou got 28% with those 'fairly left-wing' on self-IDed ideology; that wasn't asked in 1995, but obviously Balladur wouldn't have gotten anywhere close to that) in general that year explains his strong results over Balladur '95.
-Bayrou underperforming Balladur in wealthy areas. Sarkozy had a much stronger and natural appeal to strongly right-wing affluent voters. This effect is most visible in Paris and its suburbs, with Bayrou losing 14.5% on Balladur's result in Paris' 15th constituency (the north of the very rich 16th arrdt.), 10.6% in Sarkozy's constituency (in Neuilly itself, Sarkoland, Bayrou lost 20% on Balladur 95) and 10.2% in Paris' 14th constituency (the south of the 16th arrdt.). It is also visible in the Alpes-Maritimes and the Var, in Marseille, Lyon (the dark blue constituency covers the 6th arrdt., Lyon's wealthiest), suburban Lille, suburban Rouen and Calvados-4 (the constituency with Deauville and Trouville-sur-Mer).

Other things may be less obvious and are quite interesting:
-On account of Bayrou's strong support with moderate centre-left voters, he made big gains (compared to Balladur) in regions where you find more of these kind of people, who demographically can be imagined as well-educated, white-collar middle class urban and inner suburban people likely with public sector employment. Bayrou added up to 9% on Balladur's 1995 results in central Paris and about 6% in what I call the 'knowledge corridor' (a stretch of middle-class highly-education suburbs stretching from southern Paris to Orsay in the Essonne, with a high share of employment in research centres in Paris-Saclay); these are also places which have moved strongly to the left since 1995. You can find a similar effect, quite strongly pronounced, in suburban Brittany (Rennes/Brest, where Bayrou did very well), which is also an area which has shifted heavily leftwards since 1995; suburban Toulouse; suburban Poitiers; suburban Bordeaux; Grenoble and to a lesser extent suburban Nantes (although I was surprised that Bayrou didn't improve more in Nantes itself and Orvault). Suburban Strasbourg is too right-wing as it is to have been touched by this effect, while suburban Lille is politically polarized because of bigger wealth gaps (but the pattern does hold up there, with Bayrou gaining in Villeneuve-d'Ascq, a university town).
-Bayrou also did much better than Balladur in poorer left-voting parts of the Paris metro, like the 93: even if Bayrou's results remained poor there, he still did better than Balladur just because Bayrou got so many more left-wing voters on the whole.
-Bayrou lost ground from Balladur's results in rural conservative regions in general, perhaps especially in those rural Catholic/Christian dem-tradition areas of the inner west, Alsace-Lorraine, Lower Normandy and Seine-Maritime. I was particularly intrigued by the shifts in Brittany: Bayrou gained in places with a weaker Catholic/Christian dem-tradition (urban areas, leftist regions of central Brittany/Trégor) and lost in places with a strong Catholic/Christian dem-tradition (Léon, Vannetais, Vitré, Fougères) and wealthy coastal resorts (Golfe du Morbihan, Quiberon peninsula, Dinard/Saint-Malo). Pattern shows up very well in Mayenne, Manche, Orne, rural Calvados, Seine-Maritime.
-The losses in Maine-et-Loire and Sarthe also show another parallel trend - Bayrou lost in rural right-wing regions in general, even those without (or with a lesser) Catholic/Christian dem-tradition, because Balladur had an obviously stronger pull on conservative votes than Bayrou '07 did. This explains Alsace, Lorraine, Loiret, Eure-et-Loir, Franche-Comté, Burgundy etc. These regions likely had the more right-wing UDF-leaning voters, those who went over to the UMP when that started up after 2002. The one exception to this pattern is Vendée (and neighbouring Choletais in Maine-et-Loire) - where Bayrou did better than Balladur in the most Catholic part of that department, which also happens to have been the stronghold of Philippe de Villiers. De Villiers was on the ballot in 2007 as well, but did far worse than he did in 1995, so some of his favourite son votes in Vendée from 1995 went over to the other candidates, Bayrou among them. This checks out at the cantonal level, and likely explains the Choletais as well.
-Côte-d'Or is rather odd, although the differences between 1995 and 2007 are minor there and could very well just be statistical noise. Bayrou gained 1.2% in the 4th constituency, which had a prominent UDF député in 2002-2007 (and still has, François Sauvadet, first elected in 1993); he gained 2.2% in the 3rd, the more left-wing of the two Dijon seats.

A final interesting observation: the pattern of strongest Bayrou gains in 2007 from 1995 is strikingly similar to Hollande's 2012 first round map - sure, in good part it's because Hollande remade the old 'greater chiraquie' into a 'greater hollandie' around Corrèze (and also did very well in Brittany), but it can't be entirely coincidental because Hollande's strongest first round gains compared to Ségo in 2007 came from moderate centre-left people who had voted Bayrou in 2007. But, on the other hand, there's no correlation between the Hollande '12/Ségo '07 map and the above map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Nanwe on June 27, 2016, 12:24:14 PM
I imagine this is perhaps the right place to ask. So I was looking for maps of the results of the 4th Republic's election, especially with like leading party per departement/constituency or just of the various parties. I have tried to find stuff online but it's pretty scarce (and the French Interior Ministry website sucks), and I've only found some information on Duverger's work on the 1956 election, and even that is not terribly exact, it seems.

So do you happen to have or know where I could find them? :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 19, 2017, 09:50:36 PM
Although I imagine everybody is more interested by MACRON and PANZERGIRL these days, France's electoral history is so much more interesting.

Here's a fun map comparing the two far-left candidates Arlette Laguiller and Olivier Besancenot in 2002 - Arlette won 5.7%, Besancenot won 4.2%, so a 1.47% advantage to the former. Mapped at the constituency level, it produces an interesting map

()

In broad general terms, Arlette's lead over Besancenot was highest in the more working-class areas, particularly old decaying industrial regions (some, but not all, former Communist strongholds). In contrast, Besancenot did better than Arlette or came closest to her in the less working-class, especially most bobo, places - as the blue (Besancenot beat Arlette) constituencies in Paris, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse should tell you...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: warandwar on March 19, 2017, 09:58:11 PM
Although I imagine everybody is more interested by MACRON and PANZERGIRL these days, France's electoral history is so much more interesting.

Here's a fun map comparing the two far-left candidates Arlette Laguiller and Olivier Besancenot in 2002 - Arlette won 5.7%, Besancenot won 4.2%, so a 1.47% advantage to the former. Mapped at the constituency level, it produces an interesting map

()

In broad general terms, Arlette's lead over Besancenot was highest in the more working-class areas, particularly old decaying industrial regions (some, but not all, former Communist strongholds). In contrast, Besancenot did better than Arlette or came closest to her in the less working-class, especially most bobo, places - as the blue (Besancenot beat Arlette) constituencies in Paris, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse should tell you...
Great map!


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: parochial boy on March 20, 2017, 04:52:24 AM
Although I imagine everybody is more interested by MACRON and PANZERGIRL these days, France's electoral history is so much more interesting.

Here's a fun map comparing the two far-left candidates Arlette Laguiller and Olivier Besancenot in 2002 - Arlette won 5.7%, Besancenot won 4.2%, so a 1.47% advantage to the former. Mapped at the constituency level, it produces an interesting map

()

In broad general terms, Arlette's lead over Besancenot was highest in the more working-class areas, particularly old decaying industrial regions (some, but not all, former Communist strongholds). In contrast, Besancenot did better than Arlette or came closest to her in the less working-class, especially most bobo, places - as the blue (Besancenot beat Arlette) constituencies in Paris, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse should tell you...

Awesome! I'd never thought about it, but that is more or less exactly how you would expect the results between the two parties to look. Maybe a little bit surprised about Nanterre though, and that Besancenot did relatively worse in Ille-et-Villaine that the rest of Brittany.

Would love to see some more maps from that election :)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Intell on March 20, 2017, 10:06:48 AM
So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France and how do they vote?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: windjammer on March 20, 2017, 10:09:49 AM
So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Intell on March 20, 2017, 10:13:45 AM
So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen

Really? That's sad then, any statistics on this regard, and some from 2012. I don't fully believe this, looking at maps from 2012. Though in 2017, I expect LePen to make huge gains.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: parochial boy on March 20, 2017, 10:37:44 AM
So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen

Really? That's sad then, any statistics on this regard, and some from 2012. I don't fully believe this, looking at maps from 2012. Though in 2017, I expect LePen to make huge gains.

From Ipsos (http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_svv_2012_-_23_avril_2012_-_10h.pdf) - Le Pen won 29% of Ouvriers in the first round, compared to 27% for Hollande.

Polling from 2017 suggests Le Pen is in the mid-40s with working class voters, with Melenchon in 2nd on about 17%; Macron and Hamon in third and fourth and Fillon on only 7%. See here (http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/sondage-44percent-des-ouvriers-ont-l-intention-de-voter-pour-marine-le-pen-1107529.html)


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2017, 01:25:47 PM
So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen

Really? That's sad then, any statistics on this regard, and some from 2012. I don't fully believe this, looking at maps from 2012. Though in 2017, I expect LePen to make huge gains.

Traditional working-class strongholds (Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Ardennes, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Seine-Maritime) are still generally left-leaning (at least they were in 2012), but the FN does do very well there, yeah.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2017, 08:11:59 PM
I've written (and read) a lot about the working-class vote in France and I don't feel like repeating all that, but there are a few things worth keeping in mind, very quickly:

Workers who do vote are pretty heavily for the FN nowadays. The important part of the sentence is italicized. Abstention is highest among workers, and reaches heights in second-order elections, like the 2015 regional elections when nearly 60% of workers did not turn out. Even if Panzergirl does extremely well with workers next month, overall turnout will be below average. This is an important point which too few people fully realize.

The "old PCF voters supporting Le Pen" is a bullshit lazy myth invented by some morons which has been debunked by basically all academic literature on the subject. The correlation between the PCF's decline and FN's rise in the 1980s is spurious, and the FN as it grew in the 1980s attracted very few former PCF voters.

I feel as if Nonna Mayer is still the one who hit it right on the head with the idea of the niniste (neither left nor right) FN blue-collar supporter: a disillusioned, apathetic and embittered working-class person who does not recognize him-herself in 'old' left-right terms and rejects these terms. More often than not, this kind of FN voter may have had left-wing parents, but him-herself no longer identifies with the left in any way. The niniste element is very well reflected by exit polls which ask for the respondent's ideology on a left-right scale, with the FN placing far ahead with nini voters but polling at most 10% with those who self-identify as left-wing. There is, to be sure, a small base of left-wing voters, presumably more blue-collar than average, who vote FN, but it is small in comparison to the niniste element.

It is worth keeping in mind that the working-class voter in 2017 isn't the same as the working-class voter in the 1980s. The oldest (say, 65), working-class voter came of age in the late 1960s or early 1970s, while even one in his 50s would have been socialized in the mid 1980s. The limited data available suggests a pretty important age divide within the working-class vote when it comes to the FN: it does best with younger and middle-aged voters, while the oldest working-class appear to have remained more loyal to the left, although many retired workers are also voting FN in large numbers now.

Always worth keeping in mind that the class cleavage was always weaker in France than in many other European countries, particularly Scandinavia. The working-class vote was never close to being homogeneous. It wasn't in the past, it isn't today.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 20, 2017, 08:25:45 PM
Always worth keeping in mind that the class cleavage was always weaker in France than in many other European countries

Yes, this is actually the main thing to remember. There are quite a few countries in Europe where if you placed a well informed individual in a random town they could probably work out its voting patterns with something like a 95% certainty. France was never like that...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 22, 2017, 03:57:40 PM
An interesting map from 2002, for Christiane Taubira, at the time candidate of the PRG, perhaps most famous for being black and from the DOM-TOMs (namely French Guiana). She won 2.3% nationally, but benefited from a massive favourite-daughter vote in Guiana (53%) but also in the two French Caribbean territories of Guadeloupe (37%) and Martinique (28%). Her performance in metro France is very interesting as well:

()

In very broad terms, she had a clearly urban electorate in most of metro France, particularly in the greater Paris region. She performed relatively well (about 3%) in middle-class educated left-wing areas, as her pattern of support in the city of Lyon shows quite well. She also did relatively well in some old Radical areas in the southwest, like the Lot, Tarn-et-Garonne or Hautes-Pyrénées. However, the most important aspect of her support in metro France was her strong support among the Antillean population, which is predominantly concentrated in the Paris region, in the departments of Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-d'Oise and Val-de-Marne, which happened to be her three best departments in France besides Haute-Corse. Her best results came from low-income banlieues with the largest Antillean/black populations, like Bobigny (10%), Stains (8.3%), Sarcelles (8.5%), Garges-lès-Gonesse (8.7%), Créteil (7.2%), Évry (7.5%), Grigny (7.9%), Saint-Denis (7.8%) and so forth. This can be seen, to a much lesser extent, around Lyon where she also did well in low-income Vaulx-en-Velin and Vénissieux, which I presume have a small Antillean population. Her poor results in the quartiers nord of Marseille suggest she had little appeal to North African immigrants.

In Corsica, she wasn't supported by Émile Zuccarelli, at the time deputy/mayor of Bastia, who supported Chevènement, but she was supported by Zuccarelli's enemies, Paul Giacobbi (deputy/mayor of Venaco) and François Vendasi (senator/mayor of Furiani). Corsica being Corsica, she therefore won 21% in Venaco and 25% in Furiani; she also won first place, in one case with 65% (!), in various tiny villages in the mountains of Haute-Corse, which is hilarious. On the other hand, she got just 2.5% in Bastia.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: parochial boy on March 22, 2017, 04:06:44 PM
Any idea why she scored quite well in Hautes-Alpes and in the Geneva commuter belt areas in Ain and Haute-Savoie? That area doesn't have a particularly large black population (although there is quite a large North African community), and it doesn't have any sort of leftist tradition, although there is quite a strong Christian-Democrat centrist one.

Also, one thing I have wondered about is how the hell Hollande managed to win in Cantal and Haute-Loire in 2012? I mean, you can say secularisation, but even so, there doesn't seem to be much, demographically speaking, that would give such traditionally right wing areas any reason to vote Hollande. Maybe Cantal being close enough to Correze to have a home-boy knock on, but I can't see that stretching as far as Haute-Loire


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on March 22, 2017, 04:33:22 PM
Any idea why she scored quite well in Hautes-Alpes and in the Geneva commuter belt areas in Ain and Haute-Savoie? That area doesn't have a particularly large black population (although there is quite a large North African community), and it doesn't have any sort of leftist tradition, although there is quite a strong Christian-Democrat centrist one.

It's not leftist, but it fits with the pattern of her doing well in educated, socially liberal middle-class areas, of which the Geneva commuter area, particularly in the Ain, is a very good example of.

Hautes-Alpes is trickier; she also did quite well in the Diois in the Drôme, which always has a thing for minor left-wing candidates and parties and has a substantial population of leftist néo-ruraux. I'm unsure if the same holds true for the villages of the Hautes-Alpes, which are quite random in their politics.

Quote
Also, one thing I have wondered about is how the hell Hollande managed to win in Cantal and Haute-Loire in 2012? I mean, you can say secularisation, but even so, there doesn't seem to be much, demographically speaking, that would give such traditionally right wing areas any reason to vote Hollande. Maybe Cantal being close enough to Correze to have a home-boy knock on, but I can't see that stretching as far as Haute-Loire

Secularization is the main underlying political trend in those departments and others, the other one being the very strong growth of the left in the urban areas, like Le Puy-en-Velay, Aurillac, Mende and even Saint-Flour. Sarkozy was also a very poor fit for the right in that general region, which is more Christian democratic or at least moderate right and who like their politicians to be very boring. Hollande, on the other hand, despite being a Socialist, was a good fit for the region, like Chirac had been. Hollande definitely did have a knock-on effect in Cantal, like Chirac had in 1995 and 2002.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: parochial boy on March 22, 2017, 04:53:46 PM
Brilliant thanks! From a purely biased local perspective I think it is quite interesting that the 74 has become a relatively weak department for the FN, when Le Pen won there in 2002. Even the deindustrialisimg towns in the arve valley arent too strong for Le Pen, as even these have benefited from the knock on effect of Greater geneva.

Could the same néoruraux effect also be behind the same bans of greeen strength that seems to run from Haites-Alpes througt to Aveyron? The various versions of EELV seem to regularly pick up random xommunes down that way


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Zanas on March 23, 2017, 11:22:56 AM
Yeah, Western Hautes-Alpes, Northwestern Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Drôme, Ardèche and Southwestern Isère are really good matches for semi-alternative green-ish or neo-left-ish candidates or alliances. Lots of neo-rurals growing organic crops, vines, or livestock there.


Title: Re: French Elections 1848-2010
Post by: parochial boy on March 25, 2017, 07:55:21 PM
Sorry for more questions, on an old map, but I was going through the old posts in this fascinating thread and, this one caught my attention


Is there any explanation for the left wing vote in Paramé? That is one of the last places in Brittany I would expect to vote for the PS


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: parochial boy on June 28, 2017, 06:52:40 AM
So, I've done a few maps comparing the 2002 and 2017 elections, as they're superficially quite similar - with the FN making the second round, and the radical/far left scoring well in both elections. So I wanted to have a little look at how things have moved on since 2002.

The first map is taking the FN's second round result and comparing the swing towards the Le Pens, nationally the FN improved its score by 16.1%, so anything in Green swung by less, and grey swung by more:
()

The second map is a comparison of the first round scores of the FN against the joint far left (Hue, Besancenot, Laguiller and Gluckstein). Nationally, the FN (and I've excluded Megret's results here) exceeded the far left by 16.9% to 13.8%, so it's close enough that you can get a picture of the Commies v the fascists by department.

()

The last map follows on from that, in comparing Le Pen 2017 vs Mélenchon, Poutou and Arthaud combined. Le Pen got 21.3% to the combined radical left's 21.3%, so almost identical for comparing where in the country prefers the Commies or the Fascists.

()

Comparing the three maps, you get a pretty good picture I think of how the far left and far right have moved on in 15 years - in particular the way the far right has gained in the North East and gone backwards in big urban areas (especially Paris). A couple of other things stood out to me though - the fact the FN haven't progressed (as) much in PACA but also in the Garonne valley in comparison to other areas. Also, the Centre and Northern Burgundy have really swung hard right, not that surprising for such a rural and sparsely populated area (it's the heart of the "diagonale du vide" after all).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 28, 2017, 01:52:45 PM
Yeah, you really see in these maps the rise of the "France périphérique".


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: parochial boy on June 28, 2017, 05:22:47 PM
Yeah, you really see in these maps the rise of the "France périphérique".

The fact that Rhòne is now a left wing department. It's just... wrong...


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on July 06, 2021, 04:24:53 AM
Bump to post a map I recently created of Charente Maritime in the first round of the 1995 presidential.

Pink - Jospin
Blue - Chirac
Turquoise - Balladur
Grey - Le Pen
Red - Hue
Purple - de Villiers

()

You can see the Socialist strength in La Rochelle (it would be great to get some more detailed results for the city itself - I have them for 2017 and it's interesting) and its suburbs/exurbs. You also have Socialist strength in much of the countryside near the border with the Charente; the towns up this stretch - Jonzac, Pons, Saintes, St Jean d'Angély, Matha are good for the left too.

The right's strength is on the islands where it is still strong (all communes went for Fillon), and not particularly surprising; though Île de Ré was probably considerably less touristy/Parisian than it is now because the bridge had only just been built. The right was very strong, as it traditionally is, along the Gironde; from La Tremblade down to the border with the 33. In a word, resort/seaside towns, and Royan has always been a rightwing city (61% Sarkozy). It's interesting to note that in the more urban parts of this stretch (Royan, Vaux, Meschers) the traditional right has held up well, voting as they did for Fillon; in the more rural parts to the south much of this vote has gone to Le Pen.

Finally, there is the rural stretch between Rochefort and Royan (also the A837 corridor between Rochefort and Saintes) which is traditionally good for the right and I really don't know why. Saint-Porchaire, Saint-Savinien, Beurlay - these places all voted over 55%, sometimes over 60% Chirac in the second round; over 70% in the case of Pont l'Abbé.


In general the right was split more than the left, so this map overstates the strength of the latter; you have quite a few Jospin first round communes giving Chirac over his national score in the second round. Not visible here is that de Villiers did well in the north by the Vendée border (no surprise) and along the Gironde south of Royan.



Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 28, 2021, 06:51:24 PM
Tapping into the collection of old local newspapers digitized by the National Library of France (http://presselocaleancienne.bnf.fr/accueil), I have managed to reconstitute results (probable errors though) by canton for the départements of Finistère, Morbihan and Côtes-d’Armor (then Côtes-du-Nord) for the 1848 presidential election. I wanted to add also Ille-et-Vilaine but I only found results for Cavaignac, Bonaparte and total cast votes with the sum of Cavaignac and Bonaparte votes exceeding the total votes in several cantons and results for Hédé canton missing, so rather unusable. Share of votes I used to make the maps are slightly inflated as I have only full results for Cavaignac, Bonaparte, Ledru-Rollin and Lamartine and didn’t include the votes for Raspail, Changarnier, Bedeau and unspecified ‘diverse’, which are very incomplete but nonetheless negligible, in the sum of valid votes.

Have do my best to draw the limits of 1848 cantons (discovered that one of the commune of my Finistère canton was then a Morbihan exclave!), but some errors possible, especially with cantons splitting urban communes (Dinan, Saint-Brieuc, Brest, Lorient, Vannes). I disregarded the 166 votes cast in rade de Brest (Brest seafront) as well as the few votes cast by military in distinct polling stations.

As you may know, Finistère and Morbihan stood out of rest of France for being the only départements to give Cavaignac a majority of votes with Var and Bouches-du-Rhône. And the map of most-voted candidate by canton is very interesting because Cavaignac, the republican candidate, ironically received his best results in some of the most clerical and monarchist parts of the region (notably Léon) with Morbihan (certainly not a stronghold of republicans) being its best département nationwide with 59.8% of the votes.

()

()

()

This academic article (https://www.persee.fr/doc/abpo_0399-0826_2000_num_107_4_4085) (in French) provides some explanations for that paradox, at least for Finistère and Morbihan, which mostly lies in the fact that the universal (male) vote was then largely ‘directed’ by social elites (Catholic clergy, nobility and notables like the conseillers généraux elected several months before) as the population remained mostly illiterate when the name of the candidate must have been written in advance on the ballot (hence, notables organized distribution of pre-written ballots).

Part of the Catholic hierarchy in Finistère and Morbihan actually rallied the newly established republic in the hope of some social reforms (while still of course being very scared of radical popular uprising similar to the June 1848 Paris riots brutally crushed by Cavaignac), notably the bishop of Vannes and, even more, the bishop of Quimper, Joseph-Marie Gravery, who had been elected a deputy to the 1848 National Constituent Assembly and endorsed Cavaignac (who had bestowed him the Legion of Honor few weeks before the election). Also a deputy to the Constituent Assembly, Jean-Paul Daniélou, a priest from Guer and a former secretary to Chateaubriand (prominent royalist and famous writer), actively campaigned in favor of Cavaignac, explaining why its canton gave its best result (71.7%) to Cavaignac in Eastern Morbihan.

One the other way, in Morbihan, the local aristocracy refused for a large part to chose between the nephew of the guy who ordered the execution of the Duke of Enghien and imprisoned Pope Pius VII and the son of a Jacobin member of the Convention who voted for sending Louis XVI to the guillotine (also the brother of a late republican agitator close to Louis Blanc and Ledru-Rollin) leading to an important abstention that mostly favored the candidacy of Cavaignac.

I don’t really know for the Côtes-du-Nord, especially eastern Trégor which went to Bonaparte by large margins (over 85%).

Ledru-Rollin got his best results in coastal cities like Lorient (17.5% in Plœmeur canton, 12.2% in Lorient canton), Brest (7.8% in Brest-III; 6.5% in Brest-I; 3.1% in Brest-II), and Morlaix (5.0%) but also, more unexpectedly, in Ploërmel (5.8%), Sarzeau (4.2%) and in Broons (4.0%). He performed very well around the Morbihan Gulf which is probably explained by royalist voters didn’t bothering going to vote hence artificially inflating his vote.

()

A map of the vote for that poor Lamartine would be useless but, interestingly, he seems to over-perform in coastal areas, notably the cities of Brest (21.1% in the aforementioned rade de Brest, by far his best result in Finistère; 2.8% in Brest-I and 1.6% in Brest-III) and Morlaix (1.7%), but also in Ploubalay canton (1.6%) and Pont-l’Abbé canton (1.0%; don’t laugh this is three times his national share of vote).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Estrella on November 11, 2021, 01:02:22 PM
A work of art from AJRElectionMaps (https://www.deviantart.com/ajrelectionmaps/art/French-legislative-election-1958-865360028) on Deviantart.

()

A question to people who know more than me: what happened here? I mean, I know what happened, but what explains which places resisted the Gaullist wave? It's also very interesting how non-Gaullist forces (the left, but also MRP) led in many constituencies in the first round, but were defeated by everyone consolidating behind Gaullists in the second round, even though the threshold for getting into runoff was IIRC only 5%.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 11, 2021, 01:20:48 PM
Over 20% of the second round vote for the PCF - and just 10 seats. That remains an incredible result.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 12, 2022, 08:56:26 AM
()

My attempt to map the 1924 legislative election in Finistère accompanied by a four-post-long elaboration (yeah, I surpassed myself) on parties, candidates and results with a bit of socio-economic background thrown here and there to try explaining things when it isn’t just pure pedantry. But the world really needs to know about Georges Le Bail and Daniel Le Flanchec.

The results are coming from copies of Le Courrier du Finistère (https://recherche.archives.finistere.fr/document/FRAD029_0004MI020), a French-Breton bilingual weekly, more specifically from issues published in May 1924 and April 1928 (some numbers from the 1924 editions are barely decipherable but thankfully they were republished at the occasion of the 1928 legislative elections).

While most elections under the Third Republic were held using the scrutin d’arrondissement (deputies being elected in a two-round system in single-member constituencies corresponding to arrondissements or arrondissements being split into several parts) which isn’t easy to make maps on departmental level due to parties not running in all constituencies, parties running in alliance with another party in one constituency but not in another one and I don’t even speak about dissident candidacies, the legislative elections in 1919 and 1924 were held under a different system. I’m not sure to have understand everything about it but under that system deputies are elected in multi-member constituencies corresponding to départements and using a fake proportional representation that prevented a runoff (apparently still technically possible, but this didn’t happened in Finistère). Voters weren’t voting for lists but for candidates with panachage being allowed (even if results between different candidates on the lists didn’t differed that much and even if it appeared that panachage wasn’t the most common practice) with the most-voted candidates on most-voted lists being elected using a quotient. While in 1919, incomplete lists were authorized (there were only five names on the socialist list in Finistère), this was no longer the case in 1924 and each list had the exact same number of candidates than seats to be filled in the département (eleven in the case of Finistère).

As Le Courrier du Finistère is only providing the average number of votes obtained by the candidates on each list, the results are here calculated by dividing the average vote obtained by a list by the sum of the average votes obtained by all lists. As a consequence, this isn’t 100% accurate in particular in relation with average result being rounded by the newspaper but as there is no source indicating the results obtained by each 55 candidates in the 298 communes of Finistère…

Also, I guess, it is worth recalling that women couldn’t then voted in French elections nor members of the armed forces.

Anyway, very short description of the lists (I elaborate further below):

* Liste d’Union républicaine (Republican Union list): the Christian Democratic forerunner of the PDP with a (very moderate) pro-labor stance + the conservative republicans of the Republican Federation (FR) with a strong agrarian coloration + a business lobby.

* Liste républicaine d’Action économique et sociale (Economic and Social Action Republican list): a half-joke list set up by dissidents of the Union républicaine but stealing voters to the following list.

* Liste de Concentration républicaine (Republican Concentration list): the anticlerical bourgeois center-left Radical Party + the Left Republicans, a center-right republican, laïc and liberal party opposed at the same time to the most clerical/crypto-monarchist elements of the Union républicaine list and to the socialists on the following list.

* Liste du Parti socialiste (Socialist Party’s list): the socialist SFIO which had then moved towards reformist positions but was still divided about government participation as a potential partner of the Radical Party.

* Liste du Bloc ouvrier et paysan (Workers’ and Peasants’ Bloc list): the list presented by the young Communist Party (PC-SFIC), by then undergoing a Bolshevization process and advocating revolutionary positions.


Results at département level were (change compared to 1919 in brackets):

Liste d’Union républicaine 43.5% (+0.2%)   6 deputies (no change)
Liste de Concentration républicaine 29.5% (-6.1%)  3 deputies (no change)
Liste du Parti socialiste 20.7% (-0.4%)   2 deputies (no change)
Liste républicaine d’Action économique et sociale 3.3% (new)
Liste du Bloc ouvrier et paysan 3.0% (new)

Unlike what happened at the national level, the right-wing list stabilized its results compared to 1919 while the list made up by the Radical Party and the Left Republicans suffered a setback even more notable when you consider that one of its reelected candidates had been elected on the right-wing list in 1919 and had only switched sides in 1923. The SFIO list stabilized its result compared to 1919 in spite of the split of the Communist Party which failed to achieve electoral breakthrough, at least on departmental level. The Economic and Social Action list was, quite predictably, a complete waste of votes, hurting mostly the Radical-led list; none of its candidates would subsequently achieved electoral success (above local level) and its instigator would even lost his seat of general councilor the following year.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 12, 2022, 08:57:03 AM
Before elaborating on results, a way too long presentation of the five lists.

Republican Union list

It was the successor of the Republican and Democratic List of National Union which had obtained 43.3% of the votes and six out of eleven seats in 1919. It was a right-wing list made up by various conservative, Catholic, agrarian and business groups that were supportive of the ruling Bloc national, the right-wing coalition born out of the historical majority obtained by the French right in November 1919 (the famous Chambre bleu horizon which included many newly elected deputies and war veterans). The Bloc national government was led since January 1922 by Raymond Poincaré, the holder of the presidency of the Council of ministries, who by then was increasingly unpopular due to the Ruhr occupation quagmire and the double décime (a 20% increase of all taxes passed two months before the election to address the monetary and budgetary crisis combined with the rising of the maximum marginal rate of income tax from 50% to 90%, its highest rate in French history).

In its ‘profession of faith’, the Republican Union list is indicating being an electoral alliance between three different organizations:

* the Liberal and Progressive Republicans (or similar sounding names that are sometimes changing inside the same political propaganda text), a local affiliate or ally of the Republican Federation (FR), a conservative and (economically) liberal national party bringing together Catholics, nationalists and pro-business republicans. Four candidates are representing it on the list:

- Vincent Inizan [inc.], a wealthy farmer and an author in various agricultural newspapers who had served since 1919 as a deputy and since 1900 as the mayor of Kernouës, a rural commune of 650 inhabitants (population numbers are all from 1921 census) located in Léon, the northwestern part of the département and a famous conservative and clerical, quasi-theocratic, political stronghold. The descendant of juloded (well-off farmers who made a fortune in the production and commerce of linen canvas and enjoyed a great deal of social and political influence in Léon), Inizan was also the president of an equine society and one of the creators of the breeding book of the Breton draft horse.

As a deputy and a member of the agriculture commission, he had been one of the main organizers of the relocation of some 300 peasant families from Brittany to Southwest France as a way to provide workforce in depopulated areas but also to prevent social tensions, land disputes and the resultant challenge of traditional society in Léon (Finistère was the only French département whose population increased in 1919 and had one of the highest birth rate in France). The relocation was supervised by the Catholic Church and the Office Central de Landerneau, a powerful agricultural cooperative established in 1911. Federating numerous local farmers’ unions and mutual insurances, the Office Central de Landerneau was at the hands of wealthy farmers, often of aristocratic background.

- Jean-Louis Henry, a farmer and the president of the Beekeeping Union of Brittany who was serving since 1919 as the mayor of Lennon, a small rural commune of 1,500 inhabitants located in the arrondissement of Châteaulin (center of Finistère).

- Jacques Quéinnec, a notary by profession, serving since 1922 as a councilor of arrondissement for Pont-l’Abbé canton, in Pays bigouden (southwest part of Finistère). He had been decorated with the War Cross for his service during WWI, something which really mattered at that time.

- Mathurin Thomas, the mayor of Plougastel-Daoulas since 1913 and the president of the agricultural union in this commune of 7,000 inhabitants which was back then already a major producer of strawberries for both domestic and export (British) markets. Thomas also presided a local mutual insurance and was the vice-president of the federation of agricultural unions in Finistère.


* the Federation of Democratic Republicans of Finistère (FRDF), a Catholic political organization strongly influenced by the Church’s Social Teaching and dominated by former members of Le Sillon, a Christian democratic and social movement which had ended up being condemned by the pope in 1910 for its too much progressive views. The condemnation of Le Sillon by the Holy See is a fact that the local radical newspapers never missed to recall in the weeks before election as they were actually more busy attacking the ‘silloniste’ part of the rival list than the ‘liberal’ one. The FRDF was strongly associated with the L’Ouest-Éclair, a regional newspaper founded by the ‘democratic abbot’ Félix Trochu which was sympathetic to the plight of the impoverished rural and urban lower classes and reasonably critical of the Church hierarchy and the aristocratic class. Of course, he warned about the dangers of socialism and politics based on class struggle.

The two main of the leaders of the FRDF, Pierre Trémintin and Paul Simon, both appearing on the Republican Union list would played an important role in the foundation of the Popular Democratic Party (PDP) in November 1924. The first relevant christian-democrat party in France, the PDP is the forerunner of the post-WWII MRP.

Four candidates of the FRDF appeared on the Republican Union list:

- Paul Simon [inc.], holding the top spot on the list, was a lawyer registered at the bar of Brest, the largest city of Finistère (74,000 inhabitants in 1921) with a large working class population due to the presence of a major naval base combined with an arsenal and a military shipyard (Arsenal de Brest). After having been elected a municipal councilor in Brest in 1912, Simon became the following year, at only 26, a deputy when elected in a by-election. He had been reelected in 1914 and 1919 and would served in the National Assembly until 1940. One of the 80 parliamentarians who refused in July 1940 to give full powers to Pétain, he would joined the Resistance and became a MRP senator after the Liberation. He was additionally the founder of a local weekly newspaper, Le Démocrate.

- Victor Balanant [inc.], the son of a carpenter, became himself a worker in the Arsenal where, according to the description made by Le Petit Breton (the newspaper in which he regularly wrote), ‘he led there for several years a stanch and difficult fight, opposing to collectivist and revolutionary class struggle theories a robust democratic doctrine of social progress in accordance with order and collaboration between classes’. After having served in the army during WWI and being decorated with the Legion of Honor, Balanant had been elected a deputy in 1919, at 31. He would joined the Resistance during WWII and died in 1944 for the liberation of France.

- Jean Jadé, a lawyer in Brest and a WWI veteran decorated with the War Cross and the Legion of Honor, was elected a deputy in 1919, at 29, and became in the National Assembly’s a member of the commission for social insurances and provision. In 1922, he had been also elected a general councilor for the canton of Pont-Croix, in Cap Sizun (southwest Finistère).

- Pierre Trémintin, the president of the FRDF and a lawyer registered at the bar of Quimper, had served as a general councilor for Plouescat canton since 1904 and as the mayor of Plouescat, his birthplace, since 1912. A commune of 3,500 inhabitants, Plouescat is located in the so-called Ceinture dorée (‘Golden Belt’), an economically vibrant (especially compared to other rural parts of Finistère) major production area of vegetables (onions, cauliflowers, artichokes) destined for domestic market as well as for export market (England and Wales where the so-called Johnnies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Johnny) went yearly to sell door to door the onions produced in Roscoff area). A candidate on the 1919 right-wing list, Trémintin had failed to get elected a deputy but was successful in 1924. His subsequent career mirrored the one of Simon: reelected a deputy until 1940, he voted against giving full powers to Pétain and served as a MRP senator after WWII.


* The Federation of Industrial and Commercial Groups of Finistère, an obvious lobby for major economic interests, was represented by three candidates on the Republican Union list:

- Auguste Arthur, a commodity broker and the president of the chamber of commerce of Morlaix, a city of 14,000 inhabitants and an important administrative (sub-prefecture) and economic center in Trégor (northeastern Finistère). Morlaix was notably the seat of one of the largest tobacco factory in France, the state-owned Manufacture des tabacs which employed mostly women workers.

- Louis Rivière, a member of the chamber of commerce of Quimper and an industrialist in Quimperlé, a sub-prefecture of 9,000 inhabitants located in the southeastern part of Finistère, where he co-owned the Savary-Rivière factories specialized in the production of agricultural equipment.

- Louis Coïc, a wholesale wine merchant in Carhaix, a small town of 4,000 inhabitants located in the hilly center-eastern part of Finistère, on the boundary with Morbihan, that had been an important railway junction since the 1890s. The only of the three nominees of the Federation of Industrial and Commercial Groups with an actual political experience, Coïc had served as a municipal councilor in Carhaix while also chairing the Association of Veterans of his canton. Having lost a leg during the Great War, Coïc had been awarded the War Cross.


The most-voted candidate was Inizan who, while holding only the second spot on the list, outpaced the top candidate, Paul Simon, who was also elected, as well as the three other nominees of the FRDF. The sixth and last seat went to Henry who, holding only the tenth spot on the list, managed to receive more votes than Arthur (appearing fifth spot). Arthur, who was also outpaced by Trémintin (sixth spot). Both Henry and Trémintin were elected due to having a highest average vote than candidates ranked above on the list. Consequently, none of the three candidates presented by the business lobby got a seat of deputy. Possibly relevant was the fact that Inizan and Henry (but also Thomas who, placed at the last spot on the list, was still the second less-voted candidate) were pictured wearing the Breton hat on photos published to illustrate the Republican Union’s profession of faith published in conservative-friendly newspaper making them more ‘authentic’ than the big industrialists.



Economic and Social Action Republican list

This list was set up at the last minute by Henri Février, the right-wing general councilor for the canton of Châteaulin since 1919. The seat of the said canton, located in central Finistère, was a small sub-prefecture of 4,000 inhabitant as well as an important transport operating as both a river port on the Nantes-Brest canal (whose activity was then shrinking, few years before the complete end of river transport in its waters) and a railway junction. A wine and alcohol merchant by profession as well as the president of an equine society, Février was disappointed to not have been selected on the Republican Union list and consequently decided to set up his own list. Registered at the last moment, it faced several problems notably, if the Le Finistère newspaper is to be believed, a candidate changing his mind after the registration of the list and trying to get his name removed, to no avail. By the way, Le Finistère is also hilariously writing that the importance of Février is ‘inversely proportional to his corpulence’ (I guess he was morbidly obese, then).

The list of Février’ presented itself as supportive of the Poincaré government while also hypocritically denouncing in its electoral propaganda the ‘petty infighting of factions and persons’ and ‘the old parties, more concerned about the interested conquest of power than national reconstruction’. It also focused its demands on the defense of the interests of families and veterans.

The composition of the list was mostly a collection of has-been, freaks and nobodies, labeled as a ‘yellow list’ by radical newspapers and largely gnored by the catholic press.

In addition of Février (holding the #3 spot), candidates of some relevance included:

- Gabriel Miossec (#1 spot), an industrialist and a former center-right deputy for Châteaulin between 1900 and 1906. He succeeded in that office to his own father, Yves-Gabriel Miossec, a deputy in 1898-1900 who had been previously a councilor of arrondissement for the canton of Châteaulin. Nevertheless, by 1924 Miossec had been out of politics for almost twenty years and had moved to Audierne, a port of 4,000 inhabitants in Cap Sizun and a major center of sardine fishery and cannery.

- François-Louis Guillou, a wine merchant and a farmer who served as the mayor of Guiclan, a rural commune of 3,000 inhabitants in eastern Léon, since 1919 after a first term in 1902-03. Guillou was also serving as a general councilor for Taulé canton since 1919.

- Jean de Saisy de Kerampuil, an aristocrat and an industrialist residing in Riec-sur-Bélon, a coastal commune of 4,500 inhabitants in the arrondissement of Quimperlé (southeastern Finistère) and already a famous center of oyster production. The father of Saisy was a deputy for Finistère and the mayor of Plouguer (a commune now merged with Carhaix) in the late nineteenth century while his uncle used to serve as a senator for the département of Côtes-du-Nord (present-day Côtes-d’Armor). Saisy was very involved in the Breton regionalist movement and enjoyed ties with ‘Druidic’ associations, giving in 1926 the direction of his Breton Consortium company to François Jaffrennou, a druid, a bard and an advocate of Breton language renewal. The following year, Saisy would organized a pan-Celtic cultural festival in Riec with delegates from Ireland, Wales, Scotland, Cornwall, Manx and *check notes* Occitania and Flanders. The main motivation of Saisy was apparently to conclude contracts with investors from the British Isles to revive his faltering kaolin production business. This didn’t work and Saisy went bankrupt the following year and had to leave his castle after having unsuccessfully barricaded in it to oppose his expulsion.

- Léopold Maissin, a former councilor of arrondissement for the canton of Landerneau as well as a former radical mayor of Le Relecq-Kerhuon (his son succeeded him in both offices). Le Relecq-Kerhuon is an industrialized suburb of Brest where was located the state-owned Moulin-Blanc powder mill. Maissin used to be the director of the Moulin-Blanc until 1911 when removed in the wake of a nationwide scandal over the explosion of two battleships in Toulon. The deadly explosions were blamed on faulty powder produced in Finistère and Maissin got involved in a nasty dispute with Albert Louppe, the director of the Pont-de-Buis powder mill (then located in the commune of Quimerc’h, arrondissement of Châteaulin) who was also the mayor of Quimerc’h. Both men, who were hence also political rivals, accused each other of being responsible of the explosions. The scandal was ‘resolved’ by the removal of both men from the direction of their respective powder mill but, while the affair broke Maissin’s political career, it didn’t prevented Louppe of becoming shortly thereafter the president of the general council of Finistère, a deputy and, by 1924, a senator.

- Joseph Pellé, a former municipal councilor in Brest.

The list is completed with the president of an association of large families, a French navy captain, a man presented as both a merchant and a war invalid, the ‘socialist’ president of the bakery union of South Finistère who tried to withdraw his name from the list after he learned that de Saisy was on it and finally, holding the last spot, a miller of Châteaulin named Joseph Février I strongly suspected being a relative of Henri.

The most voted candidate of the list was Guillou (with a rather large advance of 247 votes over the second most-voted candidate). Février would be defeated the following year in his reelection bid for his seat of general councilor.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 12, 2022, 08:57:38 AM
Republican Concentration list

Running under the same name than in 1919 (when it won 35.6% of the votes and three seats), the Republican Concentration list was made up by a center-left to center-right alliance between two political groups:

* The Radical-Socialist, Radical and Republican Party, generally referred to as the Radical Party, a bourgeois center-left to center party (even if more and more pushed to the right by the growing Marxist parties in the 1920s) which advocated republican and laïc (sometimes bordering excessive anticlericalism) positions while defending in economic matters liberal to reformist orientations and the defense of private ownership. The party of notables by excellence, part of most governments of the Third Republic, its political orientation has been quite accurately described by the saying: Radicals are like radish, red on the outside, white in the inside and always close to ‘the butter plate’ (l’assiette au beurre, a colloquial term referring to pork barrel).

The Radical Party received six spots on the list:

- Georges Le Bail [inc.], the top candidate and the local leader of the Radical Party, was a lawyer and a large landowner from Plozévet, a commune in Pays Bigouden of 4,600 inhabitants and the home turf of the Le Bail family that hold there the office of mayor without interruption from 1878 to 1952. Georges Le Bail had been elected a councilor for the canton of Plogastel-Saint-Germain in 1895 before succeeding his father as mayor of Plozévet in 1898. Constantly reelected in both offices, he however fought a harsh battle to keep his seat of general councilor in 1920, when facing the right-wing farmer-turned-canned-food-industrialist Jean Hénaff (of the Pâté Hénaff fame) who was himself hailing from Pouldreuzic, a commune of 2,300 inhabitants neighboring Plozévet. Indeed, the election opposing both men was nullified and repeated no less than four times in two years over allegations of vote-buying and intimidation of voters. Le Bail finally prevailed in 1922 but would be defeated by Hénaff in 1925.

Additionally to his local offices, Le Bail was serving as a deputy since 1902 (reelected in 1906, 1910, 1914 and 1919) and managed to get his own son being elected a deputy in another constituency of Finistère in 1914. Said son died in 1918 but another son would also served as a deputy of Finistère between 1932 and 1940, elected in the constituency previously held by Le Bail, Sr. A staunch anticlerical but married to a devout Catholic and the daughter of an architect specialized in the restoration of religious buildings, Le Bail had voted in favor of the separation of church and state, one of the few Breton deputies to do so. He also aggressively promoted public and secular education in his commune which later became a case study for its exceptionally high proportion of natives with a higher education degree.

In spite of his aversion to collectivism, Le Bail advocated the constitution of a list with the SFIO but his efforts were sabotaged by the Left Republicans.

- Jules Le Louédec, a lawyer who was part of the justice ministerial staff in the 1880s and had already served as a radical deputy between 1909 and 1914. A general councilor for the canton of Quimperlé since 1901, he served as mayor of that town since 1919 after a first term in 1904-08. He additionally was the president of the agriculture society of the arrondissement.

- Henri Croissant, a merchant and a farmer decorated with the War Cross who had been elected the mayor of Scaër, a large rural commune of 6,500 inhabitants in the arrondissement of Quimperlé. In spite of being remote from major urban centers, Scaër was the seat of the Cascadec paper mills, owned by the Bolloré familly and reported to have employed some 700 workers in 1930. In conjunction with the Odet paper mills of Ergué-Gabéric (near Quimper) also owned by the Bolloré family, it provided in the interwar period most of the rolling paper consumed in the United States at a time when France was the world largest producer of such commodity. Croissant additionally served as a councilor of arrondissement for Scaër canton since 1919 and as the vice president of the Equine Society of Southern Finistère.

- Yves Le Febvre, then serving as a justice of peace in Plouescat, was a writer and the editor of La Pensée bretonne, a literary magazine advocating strong anticlerical views as well as pushing for the abandonment of the Breton language in favor of French language. Six months after the election, Le Febvre would published La Terre des prêtres (‘The Land of the Priests’), an anticlerical novel depicting the almighty power exerted by the fanatical and moral bankrupt clergy in Léon. Its publication triggered protests and lawsuits against Le Febvre on behalf of Catholic priests from Léon who felt insulted. Before joining the Radical Party in 1911, Le Febvre, who was born into a bourgeois family of Morlaix, had started a political career as a pro-Alfred Dreyfus activist and as the member of a succession of socialist parties: the French Worker Party (POF), the Socialist Party of France (PsdF) and finally the SFIO. He was a candidate of that party for an unsuccessful bid for deputy in 1906 before being a socialist municipal councilor in Morlaix in 1908.

- Yves Le Morvan, a wine merchant and a WWI veteran decorated with the Legion of Honor, was serving since 1919 as a councilor of arrondissement for Saint-Pol-de-Léon canton and as the president of the Morlaix arrondissement council. Since 1920, he was additionally elected the first mayor of Santec, a maritime commune of 2,000 inhabitant created from territories taken to Roscoff and Saint-Pol-de-Léon.

- Paul Cloarec, a navy officer decorated with the Legion of Honor who was serving since 1919 as the mayor of Ploujean, a Breton-speaking rural commune of 3,000 inhabitants neighboring Morlaix (Ploujean would be incorporated into Morlaix in 1960). Cloarec was himself the son of a former mayor of Morlaix as well as the brother of the former Émile Cloarec, once a mayor of Ploujean and a left republican deputy from Finistère (1901-14).


* The Left Republicans, a term referring to the members of what was then officially called the Democratic and Social Republican Party (PRDS), a moderate, republican, liberal and pro-business center-right loosely organized party generally remembered under its subsequent name, the Democratic Alliance (AD).

The leader of the PRDS at national level was then Poincaré but the local branch in Finistère appeared to be slightly less right-wing and less open to collaborate with the Catholic and reactionary organizations, questioning the actual commitment of their members to the Republic. While initially supportive of the Bloc national, the Finistère branch of the PRDS had became uncomfortable with the policies of the right-wing coalition in the areas of religion (continuation of the concordat in Alsace-Moselle, even if all deputies from Finistère bar Le Bail and the two socialist ones had voted in November 1920 in favor of the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with the Holy See), finances (double décime) and, especially it seems, foreign affairs (hard line against Germany and the January 1923 occupation of the Ruhr to get ‘guarantees’ for the payment of the war indemnities) as the local party had among its ranks friends of sympathizers of Aristide Briand, the leader of the center-left Republican-Socialist Party (PSR) and a rival of Poincaré, who was advocating improved relations with Germany.

In April 1924, the local PRDS leader, the deputy Maurice Bouilloux-Lafont, who had already took his distances with the Poincaré government, maneuvered to prevent the inclusion of his party on the Republican Union list after he had failed to sideline the openly clerical elements to appear on it. Instead, Bouilloux-Lafont brokered a renewal of the 1919 Republican Concentration alliance with the Radicals but, at the same time, opposed and sabotaged the efforts of Le Bail to add the SFIO on the Radical Party-PRDS list. Bouilloux-Lafont’s shenanigans were successful and he obtained what he wanted: a republican, laïc, moderate and – in name only – left-wing list excluding both clericalist fake republicans and socialist covert revolutionaries. But the political positioning of the Republican Concentration list was then particularly ambiguous and unclear as it included at the same time former allies of Poincaré allergic to socialists while still open to integrate a center-right government and radicals favorable to a Cartel des gauches government with the SFIO, the PSR and other left-wing parties.

After the elections, Bouilloux-Lafont would in a first step leave the PRDS caucus (‘Left Republicans’) to seat in the more centrist caucus of the so-called Radical Left (a center-right parliamentary group grossly speaking made up by the right of the Radical Party and the left of the PRDS) and got elected a vice-president of the National Assembly with the votes of left-wing deputies. However, he would later, quite predictably, broke with the new Cartel des gauches government, voted against the suppression of credits to the French embassy to the Holy See, provoked the fall of the Painlevé government in November 1925 and finally welcomed in July 1926 the return of Poincaré at the helm of the government as the head of a broad coalition ranging from the FR to the Radicals and the PRS but explicitly opposed to (and by) the SFIO, spelling the end of the Cartel des gauches.

The five Left Republican candidates appearing on the Republican Concentration list were:

- Maurice Bouilloux-Lafont [inc.], the scion of a family of bankers from Seine-et-Oise and himself a banker who, after his wedding with the heir of a wealthy family of Quimper, had settled in Finistère where he started a political career by firstly being elected the mayor of Bénodet in 1912. A busy seaside resort of 1,300 inhabitants in the arrondissement of Quimper, Bénodet was frequented by the French bourgeois society of the time. In 1914, Bouilloux-Lafont was additionally elected a deputy in 1914 (reelected in 1919 on the Republican Concentration list) and he was also serving as a general councilor for Concarneau canton since 1919. In the National Assembly, he served as the secretary of the house and as the rapporteur for the war budget.

After the fraudulent bankruptcy of the Aéropostale aviation company that ruined the familial bank and tarnished his reputation, Bouilloux-Lafont would lost his seat in 1932 and ended his political career as the minister of state (prime minister) of the principality of Monaco, a seaside resort of a better standing than Bénodet.

- Charles Daniélou [inc.], a politician with an interesting career. Daniélou was the son of a staunch anticlerical and avowed atheist wine merchant who served as the republican mayor of Douarnenez (an important fishing port of 12,200 inhabitants in 1921 as well as a major center of sardine cannery). But, when moving to Paris in the late 1890s to pursue a literary career, the young Daniélou converted there to Catholicism and attended nationalist and anti-Dreyfusard political circles. He notably joined the far-right French Homeland League, becoming its delegate for Western France. Coming back to Finistère in the late 1900s to jump into election politics, Daniélou choose to settle in Locronan, a tiny historical town of 700 inhabitants which has been used as a shot location for dozens of swashbuckler movies (beginning as early as 1921 with an adaption of the Three Musketeers), ignoring Douarnenez, too much left-wing to enable him being elected there; the great-grandfather of Daniélou had been a mayor of Locronan under Napoléon I. Elected a municipal councilor of the town in 1908, Daniélou was elected its mayor in 1912. In the meantime he had been elected in 1910 a deputy to the National Assembly (at only 32) when running on a nationalist platform, but lost his seat four years later.

Due to his experience as a soldier during WWI and his new friendship and association with Aristide Briand (who had found him a job in the foreign ministry as head of the press office), Daniélou rapidly drifted towards center-left positions and tried in 1919 to get nominated on the Republican Concentration list. His name was however vetoed by Le Bail, so it was as a candidate of the right-wing Republican and Democratic List of National Union that Daniélou came back to the Parliament that same year. Serving as a close collaborator of Briand and as a high commissioner for propaganda and French expansion aboard, Daniélou officially joined the PRDS in 1923 and managed to have his name appearing on the Republican Concentration list for the 1924 elections. Like Bouilloux-Lafont, he would seated in the Radical Left caucus after his reelection.

Anecdotally, Daniélou’s son would be a renowned theologian, a cardinal and a member of Académie française who died in 1974 in pretty embarrassing circumstances (https://www.nytimes.com/1974/06/25/archives/french-church-a-attacks-reports-cardinal-died-in-womans-room-money.html).

- Yves Guillemot, a physician, was serving as the general councilor for Lanmeur canton, in Trégor (a stronghold of Republicanism), since 1910, and as mayor of Lanmeur (2,100 inhabitant) since 1911. He would later joined the Radical Party and be elected a senator (1927-39) but lost his seat of general councilor in 1934 when defeated by the 25-year-old SFIO candidate and future minister François Tanguy-Prigent as Trégor was increasingly trending further left.

- Victor Le Gorgeu, a physician and one of the main shareholders of the La Dépêche de Brest local daily newspaper. A general councilor for Brest-I canton since 1919, Le Gorgeu would be elected the mayor of Brest in 1929, ending then a seventeen-year-long rule of the SFIO over the city.

- Amédée Belhommet, an engineer and industrialist in Landerneau, a small city of 8,000 inhabitants located 25 kilometers east to Brest with a small industrial tradition (a steam engine factory in the 1820s-1850s and a sizable textile factory active between 1821 and 1895). Belhommet is certainly a relative (the son?) of the namesake politician who served as mayor of Landerneau between 1878 and 1894.


As a demonstration of how ambiguous the political orientation of the Republican Concentration list was, the newspapers supporting it (like Le Bail’s Le Citoyen) were very careful to not directly criticize Poincaré, who remained largely untouchable due to his role of president of the Republic during the Great War. They instead focused their attacks on the FRDF and clericals, portraying them as false friends of Poincaré (the right-wing press did exactly the same thing but when discussing of the Republican Concentration list) and publishing previous declarations of the head of government referring to the clericals as ‘right-wing demagogues’ and ‘supporters of anarchy’. They went as far as pretending that, had Poincaré supported a list in Finistère, it wouldn’t had been the Republican Union one. All of that while, at the same time, trashing the record of the Bloc national on the debt (claiming the internal debt increased from 170 to 273 billions and the external debt from 42 to 154 billions between 1919 and 1924), on the tax increases and on the foreign policy (mentioning that Germany paid only 850 million on the 25 billions in war indemnities, contradicting the ‘Germany will pay’ slogan of the Bloc national).

Also, Le Bail’s newspaper tried to weaponize the figure of Joan of Arc (canonized three years earlier) to attack the Bloc national and pretend the Maid of Orleans would have opposed the right-wing list: ‘the true republicans will have with them the tender Jehanne, daughter of the people, betrayed by the grandees, burned at stake by the Church and Bishop Cauchon. On 11 May, Joan of Arc will give the French people victory’.


The Republican Concentration list got only three candidates elected as deputies: Le Bail (the most-voted candidate), Bouilloux-Lafont and Daniélou. Still, Le Citoyen was celebrating the nationwide victory of the Cartel des gauches by proclaiming that ‘on 11 May, Joan of Arc once again saved France’.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 12, 2022, 08:58:20 AM
Socialist Party list

This was the list presented by the French Section of the Workers’ International (SFIO), a socialist party founded in 1905 by the unification of the two main Marxist and socialist parties in France. By 1919, the SFIO had toned down the revolutionary rhetoric and moved towards more reformist position, especially in Brittany where it tried to appeal to small farmers who made up a large part of the electorate. Tellingly, in its copies from April and May 1924, the local party’s newspaper, Le Cri du peuple, is reproducing a 1909 speech from Jules Guesde in which the Socialist leader drew a distinction between the ‘capitalist ownership’ and the ‘small peasant ownership’ and pledged to only expropriated the former. Le Cri du peuple also published each week the same cartoon depicting the French taxpayer being literally crushed in a press as a way to denounce the high taxes introduced by the Bloc national.

Such political drift had been accelerated by the December 1920 Tours Congress when the majority of the SFIO voted in favor of joining the Lenin-sponsored Communist International and left to found the French Section of the Communist International (PC-SFIC), leaving the right-wing minority of the SFIO in charge of the old party. The question of government participation, as a potential coalition partner of the Radical Party, resurfaced and was hotly debated inside the party; it wasn’t until 1936 and the Popular Front, however, than the SFIO would joined again a government (it had been previously part of national union ministries between 1914 and 1917).

In Finistère, after having been temporarily weakened by the Communist split which took away most of the rank-and members but not many elected officials, the SFIO quickly rebuilt itself around its network of local elected officials in the largest cities, particularly in Brest which was home to the biggest section. The weight of Brest’s section is reflected in the composition of the 1924’s Socialist Party list in which members hailing from the département’s largest city got the lion’s share of the candidacies.

The eleven candidates were:

- Émile Goude [inc.], a former mechanic in the French Navy turned a clerk in the Arsenal of Brest who, after having been elected a municipal councilor in Brest in 1904, became the first socialist deputy in Brittany in 1910 (reelected in 1914 and 1919). Also a general councilor for Brest-II canton, Goude was also the founder and director of Le Cri du peuple socialist weekly newspaper. A partisan of government participation, Goude would later be involved in a pretty nasty dispute with other socialist leaders in Finistère which ended into his expulsion from the ranks of the SFIO in 1929.

- Hippolyte Masson [inc.], an employee in the state-run Post and Telegraphs and a local leader of the postal workers’ union, had been elected a deputy in 1919. Before that, he had been successively a municipal councilor in Brest in 1904, a general councilor for Brest-III canton in 1910 and the second socialist mayor of Brest (after Victor Aubert in 1904-08) from 1912 to 1920. In that post, he displayed pacifist positions in the period preceding the Great War and got fined for it. Masson would be reelected until 1936 and, after having been active in the Resistance, would served as mayor of Morlaix between 1945 and 1947.

- Léon Nardon, an employee in the tax administration, was serving as the mayor of Brest since 1919, after having been elected a municipal councilor of that city the same year. His refusal to authorize a parade of the right-wing Union nationale des combattants (UNC) in the streets of Brest had led to his suspension for a year by the prefect of the département in 1920.

- Fernand Le Goïc, a teacher who had previously served as the first socialist mayor of Douarnenez (1919-21) until he lost his majority in the municipal council due to a series of by-elections and was defeated by the PC-SFIC candidate when the new municipal council proceeded to the election of a new mayor. By 1924, Le Goïc had moved to Brest.

- Guillaume Chatel, a watchmaker in Morlaix and the mayor of this city since 1919 after having served as a municipal councilor since 1912.

- Michel Le Bars, a fisherman who was serving as the SFIO mayor of Audierne since 1908 and as a councilor of arrondissement for Pont-Croix canton.

- Guillaume Messager, a high school professor in Brest where he was serving as the first deputy mayor since 1919.

- Auguste Quiniou, a sailor turned a clerk in the French Navy administration and the chief editor of Le Cri du peuple who was serving since 1919 as a municipal councilor and since 1920 as the third deputy mayor in Brest.

- Pierre Postollec, a retired farmer in Carhaix, serving as a municipal councilor in that commune.

- Guillaume Quérou, a farmer in Plourin (today Plourin-lès-Morlaix), a rural commune neighboring Morlaix which had been historically the seat of small flax scutching industry by then moribund.

- François Le Maigre, a pensioner acting as the secretary of the SFIO section in Rosporden, a small town of 2,400 inhabitants located 11 kilometers northeast of Concarneau which, despite its low population, was already a local minor industrial center (vegetable and fish cannery, shoe-making, distilleries of cider and chouchen mead, and, from the 1930s, production of beeswax, candles and polish).


Goude and Masson were both reelected but no other socialist candidates won a seat of deputy.



Workers’ and Peasants Bloc list

The list presented by the Communist Party-French Section of the Communist International (PC-SFIC) which was founded during the 1920 Tours Congress by a majority of the SFIO delegates who were supportive of Leninism. However, it had rapidly blew membership over forced ‘Bolshevization’, purges and exclusions (mirroring the ones happening in the Soviet mother party), legal proceedings engaged against its members who had engaged into strikes or clandestine activities and disagreements over the political strategy which was decided in Moscow and didn’t take into accounts the French realities. The low point of the PC-SFIC would be reached in the late 1920s with the ‘class against class’ approach which led to rejection of alliance or collaboration with the SFIO, for the sole benefit of the right-wing parties (Le Bail would lost his parliamentary seat in 1928 to a much more conservative candidate due to the Communist candidate being forced to maintain his candidacy in the runoff); by then, the PC-SFIC would have basically turned into a political sect.

As a consequence of internal disagreements and purges, the Finistère PC-SFIC branch, which had rallied a majority of the SFIO section, lost half of its membership between 1920 and 1921 and again halved its membership between 1921 and 1922. As a consequence, it had to terminate in 1922 the publication of the party’s local weekly newspaper, Germinal de Brest to be replaced by the bimonthly La Bretagne communist (a more generic publication covering in the same edition Finistère, Morbihan, Ille-et-Vilaine, Côtes-du-Nord and Mayenne) that the party was also considering in 1924 to terminate due to acute financial problems. The PC-SFIC was also then engaged into a harsh fight with the anarchists to decide of the control of the CGTU union.

In spite of this pretty dire situation, the Communist Party had managed to build a small electoral base in Finistère but would struggled to significantly expand it (the electoral breakthrough would only happened in the 1930s). It happened to have already had at least two mayors in Finistère: in Huelgoat, a commune of 2,000 inhabitants in the Monts-d’Arrée (an area characterized by an early de-Christianization phenomenon, a demographic decline and an important emigration towards the Parisian area or even the United States), the SFIO mayor had joined the Communist Party at the time of its creation only to leave it in 1922; in Douarnenez, the communist candidate, Sébastien Velly, had been elected mayor by the municipal council in July 1921.


Tellingly, the names of the candidates on the list of the Workers’ and Peasants Bloc list weren’t specified in the electoral propaganda and were ranked on the ballot according to the alphabetic order of their surnames. Notable fact: the average age of the candidates was 36.

Candidates were:

- Jean Autret, technically occupying the #1 spot on the list, a worker in the Moulin Blanc powder mill in Le Relecq-Kerhuon and leading there the local CGTU branch.

- Sébastien Velly, an upholsterer who had been court-martialed in 1917 for desertion and was serving as the mayor of Douarnenez since 1921.

- Daniel Le Flanchec, arguably the biggest name of the list, then holding the position of departmental secretary of the party. A very colorful figure with an extraordinary life, Le Flanchec was a one-eyed former sailor who had served during the 1901 China expedition against the Boxers but turned socialist at the end of his service in the French Navy. After a stint in the SFIO and several stays in prison, he was expelled from the socialist party and became involved in the anarchist-syndicalist circles of Brest. Having now anti-police slogans tattooed on both hands, he wrote several articles in L’Anarchie and praised the deeds of the Bonnot Gang (motorized bandits passing as anarchists in the Parisian region). Having returned in the SFIO, Le Flanchec advocated the adhesion to the Communist International and followed the majority during the Tours Congress, becoming a leading member of the Finistère branch of the PC-SFIC.

At the time of the 1924 election, Le Flanchec was a market trader in Lambézellec, a rapidly growing faubourg of Brest (18,800 inhabitants in 1921) dubbed as ‘the most populated rural commune in France’ as it had kept a rural character with only 7% of its population living in an urban-dwelling. Small factories and distilleries were neighboring farms and a former barrack of the commune had been used to house thousands of U.S. soldiers between 1917 and 1919 who, when leaving, abandoned behind them a lot of material that was the object of trafficking (see the infamous Seznec affair – the 1923 mysterious disappearance and presumed murder of a Finistère councilor general reportedly involved in the sale of former U.S. military cars and trucks to the Soviet Union). Previously a local hotbed of anarchism, Lambézellec was governed by a SFIO municipality since 1912.

- Jacques Caugant, an electrician elected in 1919 as a SFIO municipal councilor for Saint-Marc commune, a low-income faubourg of Brest housing notably the workers of the Arsenal with a population of 12,000 inhabitants. Like Lambézellec and the neighboring commune of Saint-Pierre-Quilbignon, Saint-Marc would be merged with Brest in 1945 to constitute the ‘greater Brest’ commune.

- Pierre Camblan, a metal worker in the Arsenal of Brest (where he was the vice-president of the CGTU section) residing in Lambézellec.

- Guillaume Cossec, a fisherman of Douarnenez serving there as a municipal councilor since 1919 (elected firstly as a SFIO candidate).

- Félix Dubessy, a carpenter of Beuzec-Conq and the secretary of the CGTU local branch in that commune of 4,000 inhabitants neighboring Concarneau, the major fishing port and center of fish cannery industry with a population of 6,000 inhabitants. Ruled by a SFIO municipality between 1911 and 1919, Concarneau was experiencing since the 1900s a sharp economic downturn and a noticeable demographic decline (having lost almost 2,000 inhabitants between 1906 and 1921).

- Claude Guivarch, a retired worker on the Arsenal of Brest who was serving as a municipal councilor in Lambézellec since 1912. Oddly enough, Guivarch made a suicide attempt just few days before election day and would died, presumably from injuries, in August 1924.

- Albert Hernot, a carpenter in Landerneau who later emigrated to Paris region and resurfaced in 1937 as a municipal councilor in Athis-Mons (then in Seine-et-Oise, today in Essonne) when then working as a railway employee.

- François Le Brusq, an employee in Brest and then the administrative secretary of the PC-SFIC departmental section.

- Jérôme Quéméré, a WWI veteran working as both a bookseller in Quimper after having been a farmer in Elliant, a rural commune of 4,000 inhabitants located at a dozen of kilometers from Quimper. Quéméré would be subsequently expelled from the PC-SFIC in 1925 over alleged ‘fractionalism’.


The most-voted candidate on the list (which got no elected candidates) was Le Flanchec, who received some 140 votes more than the second most-voted candidate, Velly.

The subsequent political career of Le Flanchec needs to be mentioned. After the brutal death of Velly two months after the election, Le Flanchec moved to Douarnenez where he was elected the new mayor of the city in October 1924, in part helped by his oratory skills, his flamboyant style (using both Breton and French slang in his speeches) and his ability to connect with fishermen and workers of the sardine canneries (the latter being predominantly women as male workers only accomplished welding). The month following Le Flanchec’s election broke out the historical strike in the sardine canneries of Douarnenez when sardine packers who worked in dreadful and dangerous conditions for a poverty wage demanded wage increases. Started by the female sardine packers (penn sardin), the movement was joined by fishermen, encouraged by Le Flanchec and supported by a national fundraising campaign backed by both Communist and Socialist deputies. Lasting for 46 days, the strike concluded with the capitulation of the cannery industrialists, forced to bow to the demands of the strikers after Le Flanchec had barely survived an assassination attempt by strikebreakers in a tavern of Douarnenez. The criminal act totally discredited the employers’ organizations (in stark contrast with how the Communist-led strike had remained within the law, even after the attempted murder on Le Flanchec which could have triggered riots) and cemented the stature of the Communist mayor of Douarnenez as a political martyr. In May 1925, Le Flanchec was triumphantly reelected when heading a list including notably Charles Tillon (a future leader of the Communist Resistance) and Joséphine Pencalet, a widow working as a sardine packer who became the first elected woman in Brittany. While ineligible, Pencalet served for six months in the municipal council until the Council of State nullified her election.

The remaining part of Le Flanchec’s political life was incredibly messy. Le Flanchec was reelected a mayor in a landslide in 1929 and in 1935, in part because his social housing programs, but faced both times, in addition to right-wing opponents, concurrent lists made up by left-wingers and Communist dissidents, disillusioned with the growing authoritarianism and the suspicious enrichment of Le Flanchec.

Having became more and more at odds with the party leadership, Le Flanchec resigned his PC-SFIC membership in April 1936. The following year, when heading a list made up by former communists, radicals and right-wingers and endorsed by the Catholic press and the local industrialists, Le Flanchec was once again reelected mayor of Douarnenez. After a brief stint in the fascist and pro-Hitler French Popular Party (PPF) of Jacques Doriot (a similar figure to Le Flanchec by some aspects: a former leader of the PC-SFIC in the 1920s, the mayor of a working-class city – Saint-Denis – and a ‘political martyr’, for Doriot due to his frequent stays in prison in the 1920s, notably for his opposition to the Rif War on anti-colonialist grounds), Le Flanchec appeared to have came back to vaguely left-wing positions. Still, in February 1940 he re-renamed the street he had himself previously renamed as Louise Michel Street as the Marshal Pétain Street. In June 1940, as Germans were entering Douarnenez, he boldly refused to remove the French flag from the pediment of the Douarnenez town hall as demanded by the new occupation authorities, leading to his immediate removal from office. Arrested in December 1941 for ‘communist propaganda’ after having been denounced by his aristocratic mistress, Le Flanchec perished in March 1944 in the Buchenwald concentration camp.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 12, 2022, 08:59:08 AM
Now, trying to explain some results:

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Well, obviously the Republican Union list won by colossal margins in Léon, the stronghold of clericalism in Finistère where the recteurs (parish priests), coming from julod families, exerted a considerable influence and were able to even challenge the authority of the Church upper hierarchy and the aristocracy, as illustrated by the 1897 by-election in the third constituency of Brest when the ‘republican’ abbot Hippolyte Garaud defeated the monarchist candidate, a local aristocrat. The right-wing list received, for example, 91.1% of the vote in Plabennec, 84.1% in Plouescat, 75.9% in Ploudalmézeau, 75.7% in Ploudiry, 75.1% in Lannilis and got its highest results in the most rural communes while being weaker in the small towns of Léon: 57.2% in Lesneven, 58.8% in Saint-Pol-de-Léon, 50.2% in Landivisiau. It also received weaker results in the fishing ports of northwest Finistère (58.0% in Roscoff, 57.8% in Porspoder, 48.8% in Lanildut, 54.6% in Le Conquet) and under-performed (by Léon’s standards) in small cities home to some industrial activity like Landerneau (35.2%) and, of course, Brest and its area (20.0% in the city itself with a third place behind the SFIO and the Republican Concentration; a poor 16.0% in Le Relecq-Kerhuon) where, by contrast with the hinterland, especially hostile to left-wing parties, the SFIO placed ahead in Brest (45.8%), in Saint-Marc (51.7%), in Lambézellec (52.9%), in Saint-Pierre-Quilbignon (43.9%) and in Le Relecq-Kerhuon (51.4%). For some reason, possibly linked to the presence of an iodine factory (developing its production from seaweed collected in the surroundings), the Republican Concentration list came ahead in Lampaul-Plouarzel (45.3%) where the Republican Union list placed only third with 21.4% behind the SFIO list and its 28.4%.

The Republican Union list also won in a landslide the islands of the Atlantic Ocean: 81.2% in Ouessant, 80.9% in Molène and 83.1% in Sein.

A traditional republican and laïc area which would moved further left in the following decades (becoming a SFIO and later a PSU stronghold), Trégor was swept by the Republican Concentration list (69.8% in Lanmeur, 62.0% in Plouigneau) except its main city, Morlaix, won by the SFIO with 37.5% against 28.9% for the Republican Union and 22.9% for the Republican Concentration.

Further south, the inner parts of the département, around the small town of Huelgoat, were dominated either by the SFIO either by the Republican Concentration lists. Not a surprise as the area was mostly populated by small and poor peasantry and forestry workers with a tradition of egalitarianism and hostility towards the Catholic Church hierarchy. Also a largely Breton-speaking region, it has been also characterized by an important emigration towards the Parisian region; when coming back home, migrants had often converted to republican, socialist and leftist ideas. Finally, probably having played a role, had been the mining past of the region and the early introduction of private wage-earning employment: the communes of Huelgoat, Locmarien-Berrien and Poullaouen had been the location of several lead and silver mines exploited by private companies from the mid-eighteenth century. Mining reached its apex at the end of the eighteenth century at a time when the Huelgoat mining area was one of the largest in France (1,300 employees in the mines and 400 in related activities for the year 1770) before suffering economic decline and a first closure in the 1860s. The extraction was restarted at a much more modest scale thereafter but proved unsustainable and the last mine was abandoned in 1934. However, extractive activities continued in the area under the form of granite quarrying. Anyway, the SFIO won 64.9% of the vote in Huelgoat (its best commune), 51.2% in Locmaria-Berrien and 35.4% in Poullaouen where it placed second behind the Republican Concentration list which received 40.8% of the vote.

In Carhaix, the SFIO also achieved its fourth-best result with 55.4% of the vote.

The center-western part of Finistère is a bit more complicated to decipher. While the right-wing list triumphed in Plougastel-Daoulas with 70.8% of the vote and placed ahead in Crozon with 39.6% of the vote against 37.0% for the Republican Concentration list, the SFIO placed first in the communes of L’Hôpital-Camfrout (54.6%) and Logonna-Daoulas (40.5%), which were the center of kersantite granite quarrying (an industry employing some 260 workers in 1927) as well as the in communes in the vicinity of the Pont-de-Buis powder mill (Quimerc’h: 40.7%; Saint-Ségal: 39.6%; Port-Launay: 52.0%). Meanwhile the Republican Concentration list placed first in the sub-prefecture of Châteaulin (31.8% against 30.0% for the Republican Union and 28.9% for the SFIO), in the port of Camaret specialized in spiny lobster fishing (40.2%), and in Locronan, the fiefdom of Daniélou (62.3%).

The PC-SFIC came first in Douarnenez with 32.8% ahead of the Republican Union list (30.4%), the SFIO list (19.1%) and the Republican Concentration list (16.2%). It also won the neighboring fishing port of Pouldavid with 31.7% of the votes. These were the only two single communes won by the PC-SFIC. Meanwhile, the hinterland was dominated by the conservative list like in Pouldergat, the commune from which Pouldavid was split from in 1919, where it received 47.9% of the vote against 40.2% for the Republican Concentration, a paltry 8.0% for the SFIO and a meager 2.1% for the PC-SFIC.

In Cap Sizun, the Republican Union list came largely ahead in the northern part of Cap Sizun, where the main economic activity was agriculture. By contrast, in the southern part, where fishery was playing a more important role, the SFIO came ahead in the sardine fishing port/canning center of Audierne (61.5%, its second-best commune) and in Primelin (38.8%), the seat of a sardine fishing port as well as of a recently opened small factory of canned peas. The socialist list placed second behind the Republican Union in Esquibien and Plouhinec with respectively 33.7% and 28.9%.

In Pays Bigouden, the Republican Concentration list won in a landslide Plozévet, the commune of Le Bail, with 70.3% (its best commune overall), sharply contrasting with the neighboring Pouldreuzic when the Republican Union list came largely ahead with 68.9%. Meanwhile, the SFIO placed ahead in the important fishing port/fish canning center of Le Guilvinec (28.7%) - where the PC-SFIC placed second with 25.5% - as well as in the neighboring port of Treffiagat (56.7%). In Penmarc’h, also a fishing port/canning center, the Republican Concentration placed first with 35.1%, ahead of the SFIO (31.9%). In Pont-l’Abbé, the capital of Pays Bigouden, the Republican Union placed first with 30.6%, ahead of the Communist list (27.5%) with the SFIO and the Republican Concentration placing in distant third (19.5%) and fourth (19.3%) positions.

In the city of Quimper, the Republican Concentration list prevailed with 35.3%, followed by the Republican Union (32.6%), the SFIO (24.6%) and the PC-SFIC (5.1%) and came ahead in most communes of the area, notably in Bénodet (69.7%), the stronghold of Bouilloux-Lafont. The SFIO placed first in Ergué-Armel (35.6%), a rather working-class faubourg/suburb of Quimper where a faience manufacture was located, while the Republican Union received the largest share of vote (41.9%) in the more bourgeois suburb of Kerfeunteun.

In the eastern part of the arrondissement of Quimper, the SFIO came ahead in La Forêt-Fouesnant with 41.4% (which was then a fishing port but is now a yacht harbor largely leaning to the right) and in Rosporden with 41.2%. It placed however only second in Concarneau with 29.2%, far behind the conservative list and its 43.2%; however, while the Republican Concentration received 14.9% of the votes, the Communist list got there a strong result with 10.4%. The right dominated in what had been a very left-wing commune thanks to the disastrous administration (1912-18) of the socialist mayor François Campion, who was reportedly more busy picking fights with the police than actually managing the town and ended up being removed by the prefect, as well as demographic and social changes. It would be only in 1935 that the left would recapture the mayorship of Concarneau with the election of the Communist Pierre Guéguin.

In the arrondissement of Quimperlé, the Republican Concentration placed ahead in most communes, including in Quimperlé itself (52.2%). Only the coastal communes around Riec-sur-Bélon (won by the Republican Union with 32.4% of the vote) and Pont-Aven (39.3% for the Republican Union followed by the Socialist list with 36.9%) placed the right-wing list ahead as well as the easternmost canton of Arzano which, historically part of Vannetais and not Cornouaille, had been incorporated to Finistère at the Revolution (or even after in the case of Locunolé detached from Morbihan only in 1857) and tended to be more clerical than the rest of the arrondissement.


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The strongholds of the Republican Union coincide more or less with the most Catholic areas (Léon, parts of the Pays Bigouden around Pouldreuzic and the bits of Vannetais incorporated into Finistère) as well as the area around Briec which may had to do with the fact the breeding of draft horses was an important activity there; it was a lucrative one as horse remained then the most valuable animal at a time when Breton farms have stayed largely away from the mechanization process. The right-wing list generally under-performed in the largest cities/towns (20.0% in Brest, 32.6% in Quimper, 28.9% in Morlaix, 29.8% in Quimperlé, 35.2% in Landerneau, 30.0% in Châteaulin), in Trégor (18.2% in Lanmeur; 26.7% in Plouigneau), in Monts-d’Arrée (a meager 13.3% in Huelgoat) and in most southern fishing ports (30.4% in Douarnenez, 19.8% in Audierne, 26.8% in Penmarc’h, 18.6% in Guilvinec, 33.8% in Plobannalec-Lesconil, 25.1% in Camaret) but Concarneau (43.2%).


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The strength of the Republican Concentration list is noticeable in Trégor (69.8% in Lanmeur; 62.0% in Plouigneau), in Santec (62.0%) whose mayor was a candidate on the list, for some reason in the area around Châteauneuf-du-Faou (58.6% in the commune itself) as well as in the area surrounding Scaër whose mayor was a candidate on the list (55.1% in Scaër, 55.9% in Trégourez or 57.0% in Kernével, all communes which would have PCF mayors after 1945). The list also received strong results in Bénodet (69.7%), Plozévet (70.3%) and Locronan (62.3%) whose deputies/mayors hold the first spots on the list as well as in the Crozon peninsula and in Le Faou (54.8%) which may possibly be explained by the influence of Albert Louppe, a senator since 1921 also holding the offices of general councilor of Le Faou canton and president of the general council of Finistère (since 1912) after having serving as a deputy for the constituency of Châteaulin.

Conversely, the Republican Concentration didn’t do particularly well in urban areas but Quimper (35.3%) and Quimperlé (52.2%, thanks to the presence of Le Louédec on the list; in 1919, when he didn’t run, the town and the neighboring communes were won by the socialist list, suggesting a strong personal factor), especially in the most working-class ones: 27.7% in Brest and Landerneau, 22.9% in Morlaix, 16.2% in Douarnenez, 14.9% in Concarneau and 10.3% in Le Relecq-Kerhuon (where it was hurt by the dissident right-wing list).


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The SFIO received its best results in the center-eastern, interior, part of the département (64.9% in Huelgoat, 55.4% in Carhaix), in the area of Brest (45.8% in the city, 52.9% in Lambézellec, 51.7% in Saint-Marc, 43.9% in Saint-Pierre-Quilbignon) where the Arsenal was a major employer, in Morlaix (37.5%), in the powder production centers (51.4% in Le Relecq-Kerhuon; 40.7% in Quimerc’h), in the quarrying areas around L’Hôpital-Camfrout and Logonna-Daoulas, in the cannery industry centers (41.2% in Rosporden, 36.9% in Pont-Aven) and in the fishing ports that may or not may also comprised cannery factories (61.5% in Audierne, 31.9% in Penmarc’h, 41.4% in La Forêt-Fouesnant, 56.7% in Treffiagat).

The socialist list was more generally strong in the communes of the southern part of the département dominated by fishing activities (28.9% in Plouhinec, 27.0% in Plobannalec-Lesconil) even the ones where the communist competition was strong (28.7% in Guilvinec and 29.2% in Concarneau but an average 19.1% in Douarnenez). It was also competitive in the area of Châteaulin (28.9% in the commune itself, 52.0% in Port-Launay, 31.4% in Saint-Coulitz) where railway transportation and the declining activity of the Nantes-Brest canal played an important economic role (Port-Launay was also a center for the decaying transportation of slates while Saint-Coulitz was home to a hydroelectric plant built in 1887 than enabled Châteaulin to become the first commune in Western France and the fourth one in the country to electrified). It also fared well in the areas located upstream along the canal, where slate quarrying was still a thing (not for long) like Saint-Hernin (38.6%) (where six workers were killed in 1921 in accident taking place in a slate quarry employing around 50 workers), Motreff (25.6%) or Spézet (26.0%). Also strong results in Roscanvel (38.6%) and Landévennec (32.9%), in the Crozon peninsula, probably linked to activities related to the French Navy (Landévennec notably served into a reserve fleet).

In Léon, above average (at least by local standards) results for the SFIO are noticeable in the communes home to iodine factories (28.4% in Lampaul-Plouarzel, 17.6% in Landéda, 16.3% in Le Conquet), a largely insignificant industry that only survived thanks to state subsidies (French army being the main purchaser for the tincture of iodine) or the quarries of the Aber-Ildut (25.3% in Lanildut, 20.2% in Porspoder).

By contrast, the socialist list was weak in the interior part of Léon and the parts of Pays Bigouden/Cap Sizun where fishery wasn’t the main activity.


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The dissident right-wing list only over-performed in the three or four areas where it had relatively well-established candidates, the obvious consequent of a favorite son effect: Guiclan (36.2%, its best result) and neighboring communes; Le Relecq-Kerhuon (17.1%) and the neighboring Guipavas (11.6%) proving that Maissin had kept followers in spite of the Toulon explosions controversy; the whole area around Châteaulin (8.0% in the commune itself); Riec-sur-Bélon (8.6%). The list fared poorly in Léon, Pays Bigouden and in the most-populated/working-class communes: 2.7% in Brest, 2.4% in Quimper, 2.0% in Morlaix, 2.3% in Concarneau, 1.5% in Douarnenez…


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The communist list’s map is showing a very unequal distribution as it didn’t received a single vote in 71 out of 298 communes. As mentioned it placed first in two communes (Douarnenez and its faubourg of Pouldavid, receiving respectively 32.8% and 31.7% of the votes) while coming second in two other ones (Guilvinec, 25.5%; and Pont-l’Abbé with 27.5% where it beat the SFIO list which received 19.5% of the vote in a traditional left-wing stronghold), all places located on the maritime facade of the Western Cornouaille. There, it also mentioned noticeable results in Plobannalec-Lesconil (11.9%), in Combrit (5.0%) and in Audierne (4.4%). I have saw the hypothesis of Welsh Protestantism influence to partly explain such strong results for the socialist and communist lists in Plobannalec-Lesconil as the port of Lesconil had been the center of a Methodist evangelization effort since the 1880s led by the Welsh pastor William Jenkyn Jones; in any case, not only Protestants were very active in the fight against clericalism in that part of Pays Bigouden but the head of the Protestant Association in Lesconil at the end of the World War II also happened to be the leader of the local branch of the Communist Party.

The communist list also over-performed in Concarneau (10.4%) and the adjacent communes (13.0% in Beuzec-Conq, 5.1% in Lanriec), in the area of Carhaix (6.5% in Plouguer, 4.4% in Plounévézel, 3.2% in Carhaix itself), in Morlaix (8.6%), in Landerneau (8.5%) and in the working-class suburbs of Brest (5.9% in Saint-Marc, 5.2% in Le Relecq-Kerhuon, 3.6% in Lambézellec) and to a small extent in Brest itself (3.8%).

I’m really not sure about the incredible performance of the PC-SFIC in Elliant (14.2%, the party’s sixth best commune) as an anomaly due to the presence of a local candidate on the list (the one who would be expelled several months after) could be discarded: indeed, ten years thereafter, Elliant would be one of the only eight communes and the only rural one in Finistère where an antifascist vigilance committee would be set up in the wake of the 6 February 1934 riots.

That's all folks.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on October 03, 2022, 02:05:58 PM
Ardèche 1945

Numbers are from the 27 October 1945 copy of La Voix du peuple de l’Ardèche, a communist newspaper, and one of the few scanned local newspapers covering the post-war period freely available on the Internet. It is to be found on the website of the Ardèche department archives (https://archives.ardeche.fr/archive/recherche/presse/).

Referendum

Question 1 (about the national assembly elected the same day serving as a constituent assembly). All parties campaigned for the yes.

Yes 94.9%
No 5.1%

Don’t feel the need to make a map of this one.


Question 2 (on a text limiting the scope of the constituent powers of the assembly and organizing the relations between executive and legislative powers on a provisional basis awaiting the draft and approval of a new constitution).
The PCF campaigned for the no.

Yes 61.6%
No 38.4%

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Elections for the Constituent Assembly

URA 30.8% 2 seats
PCF 26.8% 1 seat
SFIO 18.4% 1 seat
MRP 16.0%
Radical Party 7.9%

The URA is the ‘Union of Ardéchois Republicans’, which is referred to as the Democratic Republican Union (URD) by the Communist newspaper, the successor of the Republican Federation (FR) of the inter-war period which was gathering together non-Gaullist and non-MRP Catholic and conservative right-wingers. Of its two elected deputies, one (Paul Ribeyre) would seated in the ‘Peasant’ caucus and the other one (Joseph Allauzen) in the Freedom Republican Party (PRL) caucus – they both would become members of the CNIP in the 1950s.

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Not very knowledgeable about Ardèche electoral patterns but this map from Al posted in 2009 on this very same thread could provide some indications as well as a map of the distribution of Protestants in 1689 (found here (http://theses.univ-lyon2.fr/documents/getpart.php?id=lyon2.2007.plenet_m&part=203579)) which sounds like broadly similar to the distribution of the radical vote.

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Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on March 12, 2023, 12:25:03 PM
Maps of the 1848 presidential election in Gard, a département home to the largest protestant community in France (accounting to about one third of the département’s population by then with Protestantism being the majority religion in twelve cantons following a Saint-Jean-du-Gard-Vauvert north-south line). Gard then also experienced a dramatic transition from an economy dominated since the sixteen century by silk industry (textile factories in Nîmes, the main city which gave its name to the denim and silk worm farming in the Cévennes) towards coal exploitation and metallurgy, especially around Alais (present-day Alès) and the neighboring cantons of Génolhac, Saint-Ambroix and Saint-Martin-de-Valgalgues.

Results in Gard were:

Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte 48.4%
Louis-Eugène Cavaignac 36.6%
Alexandre Ledru-Rollin 15.0%

The three cantons of Nîmes are combined into a single one because I can’t find their boundaries (a usual problem for old cantons including intra-urban subdivisions).

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Far from the landslide he scored at national level (74.3%), Louis-Napoléon failed to win a majority of the vote in Gard while Cavaignac and especially Ledru-Rollin over-performed their national results (respectively 19.6% and 5.1%).

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Napoleon’s nephew placed ahead in the major urban center, Nîmes, receiving 62.3% of the vote in the three combined Nîmes cantons, and got his best result (83.2%) in Marguerittes, a royalist canton. He also received over 50% of the vote in the more Catholic and royalist cantons of the Rhône Valley (53.3% in Pont-Saint-Esprit; 55.1% in Bagnols; 65.6% in Roquemaure; 59.1% in Villeneuve-lès-Avignon) except in Beaucaire where he got only 39.1% of the vote. Such under-performance may possibly be explained by the fact Beaucaire was the seat of an important trade fair (by 1848 in a state of prolonged decline), a kind of place usually not too kind for royalist/conservative sentiments. Results in the protestant areas are very contrasted as he won  strong 73.1% in Anduze (his third best canton) and 66.8% in Lédignan, while generally under-performing elsewhere and receiving only 20.9% in Sommières and 16.0% in Lasalle (his worst canton). In addition to Sommières and Lasalle, Bonaparte placed third in two additional cantons: Saint-Hippolyte-du-Fort and Uzès.

()

I’m not really sure how to explain Cavaignac’s map (the stronghold around Uzès is noticeable but I don’t know the factors behind it) except that he did badly in the Rhône Valley, placing even third behind Ledru-Rollin in Villeneuve-lès-Avignon (12.0%, its worst canton) and Aramon (13.4%). While he did poorly in Nîmes (21.2%), he received 39.7% in Alais, not far behind the 42.2% of Bonaparte. Cavaignac also placed third in Saint-Jean-du-Gard, where he received 22.4% of the vote against 29.3% for Ledru-Rollin and 48.2% for Bonaparte.

()

Ledru-Rollin received his best result in the Vaunage (cantons of Sommières and Saint-Mamert where he got respectively 30.6% and 29.3% of the votes), a deeply protestant area that had been devastated by the religion wars and was home to Methodist and Quaker communities. Ledru-Rollin’s second best canton was Saint-Jean-du-Gard (29.3%), also a heavily protestant canton. Broadly speaking, the democratic socialist candidate did well in the protestant areas but also in parts of the Rhône Valley (28.9% in Villeneuve-lès-Avignon, 28.5% in Aramon and 27.6% in Beaucaire). He comparatively received lower results in the two main industrial centers with 18.1% in Alais and 16.5% in Nîmes’ three cantons. The worst performances of Ledru-Rollin are to be found in the westernmost part of the départment, a remote and rural area where the protestant influence was less pronounced: there, Ledru-Rollin received no votes at all in the cantons of Trèves and Alzon.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on March 16, 2023, 06:04:02 PM
More maps of Gard, this is time for a bit forgotten election, the 1870 plebiscite summoned by Emperor Napoléon III to ratify the evolution of the regime towards political liberalism, including the approval of a senatus-consulte introducing ministerial responsibility to the Legislative Body.

While national results were a triumph for Napoléon III (even when taking into account pressure on the voters and use of all the resources of the state to get the ‘yes’ approved) which then totally despaired republicans as the ‘yes’ accounted for 82.7% of valid votes and 66.8% of all registered voters, in Gard, the results were less favorable to the Empire. Indeed ‘yes’ accounted for 62.2% of valid votes (against 37.8% for the ‘no’) and didn’t obtained the support of a majority of registered voters (48.0% of registered voters against 29.2% for the ‘no’).

Like on the previous maps, the three cantons of Nîmes are combined into a single one while Alais/Alès had been by then divided into two cantons but Le Courrier du Gard is only providing results for the combined two cantons.

()

On this one the Saint-Jean-du-Gard-Vauvert line is clearly apparent as protestant cantons predominantly voted in favor of the ‘no’, sometimes by large margins with the strongest victories in cantons with a protestant majority being recorded in Vauvert (64.4%) and Sommières (61.1%), i.e. the Vaunage. However the canton that mostly voted in favor of the ‘no’ with 71.7% of the valid votes was Nîmes, the most populated town and the prefecture of the département, which was much more favorable to Napoléon III back in 1848. Also noticeable the victory of the ‘no’ in Beaucaire with 52.0% of the valid votes.

Conversely, the ‘yes’ received its best results in the northeast part of the département, along the Rhône River (86.9% in Pont-Saint-Esprit; 84.8% in Bagnols; 88.8% in Roquemaure), in the westernmost part of the département (with 98.9% in Trèves, its best canton) and in the center-north (90.9% in Saint-Ambroix; 90.2% in Génolhac; and even 94.5% in La Grand-Combe). The results in that latter canton, which was the seat of a coal mining industry, just like in Alais/Alès (63.6%), are indicative of a pretty strong support for the Empire coming from industrial workers that could possibly explained by the ‘paternalist’ policies theorized by Frédéric Le Play (mixing defense of the traditional hierarchy and Catholicism and provision of social and moral support and housing to workers) implemented by Denis Benoist d’Azy, the manager of the Compagnie des mines, fonderies et forges d’Alais, the company exploiting coal extracting in the Alais mining basin. Benoist d’Azy was a Legitimist deputy from Gard between 1849 and 1851 but was then retired from politics (not sure if he was then a supporter of Napoléon III as he had protested the 1851 coup); he would be reelected in Gard after the downfall of the Empire. Alternatively/additionally, this could be explained by the popularity of the Napoléon legacy among workingmen and the efforts displayed by Napoléon III to attract workers’ vote.

Maps of the support for the ‘yes’ and the ‘no’, expressed in percent of the registered voters

()

()

The ‘yes’ gathered a majority of registered voters in half of the cantons (19 out of 37 cantons) while receiving the support of a minority of registered voters in the most populated cantons: 46.7% in Alais (9,162 registered voters); 29.4% in Vauvert (6,140 voters) and an abysmal 19.1% in Nîmes (19,241 voters).

By contrast, the ‘no’ garnered a majority of registered voters in only three cantons: Vauvert (53.1%); Sommières (51.0%) and Lédignan (50.4%), while receiving the support of a respectable 48.4% of the registered voters in Nîmes. In Alais, it got the support of barely one fourth of registered voters (26.7%).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on March 25, 2023, 02:44:25 PM
()

Results of the 1848 presidential election in Allier were:

Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte 68.3%
Alexandre Ledru-Rollin 22.9%
Louis-Eugène Cavaignac 8.8%

()


()


()

A textbook case of early rural socialism (traditionally linked to the practice of sharecropping in the case of Allier) as the six cantons Ledru-Rollin placed ahead have all a number of votes below the average number (2,371) of votes by canton in Allier. The democratic socialist candidate received a majority of the valid votes in four cantons – Jaligny (1,893 votes cast) with 70.6%; Dompierre (1,781 votes cast) with 59.4%; Lurcy-Lévy (2,046 votes cast) with 54.5% and Le Donjon (1,887 votes cast) with 50.7% - and a plurality in two additional ones – Bourbon-l’Archambault (1,979 votes cast) with 47.4% and Cérilly (2,009 votes cast) with 42.8% while receiving a support under his departmental average in the less rural (‘urbanized’ would be quite an exaggeration): 16.4% in Cusset, 21.8% in Moulins-Ouest, 17.4% in Moulins-Est, 11.3% in Montluçon and a pitiful 3.6% in Montamarault (which included the mining commune of Commentry, which elected the first socialist mayor in France in the 1880s).

Support for Ledru-Rollin is concentrated in the northern part of the département, at lower elevations with the Allier Valley (cantons of Moulins-Ouest, Moulins-Est and Neuilly-le-Réal) splitting the socialist-leaning territories into two areas: one in the northeastern part of the département and another one covering northwest Allier but also extending to neighboring Cher (46.7% in Saint-Amand-Montrond, the only canton of Cher won by Ledru-Rollin; 33.0% in Saulzais-le-Potier or 27.8% in Charenton-du-Cher). This were places which started an unrest in December 1851 to oppose the coup of Louis-Napoléon with inhabitants from Le Donjon briefly taking control of the sous-préfecture in neighboring Lapalisse before being brutally repressed by the central government.

Bonaparte’s map is pretty much the reverse one of Ledru-Rollin’s map while I don’t understand the map of Cavaignac vote (yeah, I'm not very knowledgeable about Allier and a bit lazy these days to dig for explanations).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on March 29, 2023, 09:19:05 PM
Maybe; I would argue that America's party system is slowly or rapidly becoming more like the current French tripolar system, but keeping on to the 2 party labels of D and R.

Currently France has a well defined Left, Center, and Right.

America has a very small Left (Squad/Progressives), fairly large Center (dominated by Democrats and a few Republicans like Murkowski, Meijer, Cheney, and Collins), and a robust, but alienating Right.

What is the comparative size of these voter blocs in 2010s-2020s France?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 30, 2023, 12:53:39 PM
Maybe; I would argue that America's party system is slowly or rapidly becoming more like the current French tripolar system, but keeping on to the 2 party labels of D and R.

Currently France has a well defined Left, Center, and Right.

America has a very small Left (Squad/Progressives), fairly large Center (dominated by Democrats and a few Republicans like Murkowski, Meijer, Cheney, and Collins), and a robust, but alienating Right.

What is the comparative size of these voter blocs in 2010s-2020s France?

From last year's presidential election:

Here's another map - one I've been meaning to make since I saw the final results. I noticed you could break the electorate up in to three broad ideological blocs of almost equal size. Of course those categorizations are eminently contestable, but I think they still reveal some interesting things.

Left (Arthaud-Poutou-Mélenchon-Roussel-Hidalgo-Jadot): 31.95%
Liberal Right (Macron-Pécresse): 32.62%
Nationalist Right (Dupont-Aignan-Le Pen-Zemmour): 32.29%

That leaves out the unclassifiable Lassalle's 3.13%, but otherwise splits French voters into almost perfect thirds.

So, what does this 3-way divide look like mapped out? I finally took the time to find out:
() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=27252)

For France, a genuinely shocking degree of geographic bias. The far-right bloc came out ahead in a solid majority of departments, and if France had an "Electoral College" it would be solidly ahead of it too. It of course wins overwhelmingly in the traditionally right-wing Mediterranean France, and in France's vast postindustrial Northeast, but also in large swathes of the country that don't have such a strong political identity, like the Centre region and even much of the traditionally left-wing Southwest. This is only partially explained by the nationalist bloc's weakness in IdF: even if you look at the non-IdF continental France only, the bloc only wins with a plurality of 34.66%, not that far from the liberals' 31.88%.

However, it is clear that the nationalist bloc is much weaker across France's globalized metropoles, and Departments anchored by one such tends to be strongholds for either the left or liberal bloc. On the liberal side, the Grand Ouest also really stands out as its last redoubt, along with the traditionally posh West side of IdF. Other areas of support includes also upscale areas like Haute-Savoie and Rhône, as well as a little redoubt of what might have once been Hollande Country in the Massif Central and Bayrou Country in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques. As well as the expats and Pacific territories, where support for continued unionism with France usually translates into support for the center-right establishment.

As for the left, it (and this really cannot be stressed enough) dominated Ile-de-France, winning 39.99% in the region. Also in most non-Pacific DTOMs, where Mélenchon's scores were pretty staggering. Aside from that, its areas of support in non-Idf continental France tend to be anchored around metropoles like Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse and Grenoble. A few redoubts of rural leftism survived, like Ariège, Lot, Haute-Vienne and Hautes-Alpes, but those are just the remnants of once-vast swathes of leftist support across the South.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 06, 2023, 08:38:15 AM
SEINE 1945 (Constituent Assembly election)

I have found the results detailed at commune level for various elections held in the former Seine département (covering Paris and its inner suburbs) in the Bulletin officiel de la Ville de Paris digitized on Gallica.

Beginning with the October 1945 election of deputies to the (first) Constituent Assembly. For electoral purposes, Seine was then divided into six constituencies (circonscriptions) widely referred to as ‘sectors’ (secteurs) in the contemporary press.

* Seine-1 was comprising Paris’ Left Bank: 5th, 6th, 7th, 13th, 14th and 15th arrondissements
* Seine-2 was comprising the western part of Paris’ Right Bank: 1st, 2nd, 8th, 9th, 16th, 17th and 18th arrondissements
* Seine-3 was comprising the eastern part of Paris’ Right Bank: 3rd, 4th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 19th and 20th arrondissements.
* Seine-4 was covering the southern part of banlieue with cantons of Charenton-le-Pont, Ivry-sur-Seine, Nogent-sur-Marne, Saint-Maur-des-Fossés, Sceaux, Vanves and Villejuif.
* Seine-5 was covering the northwestern part of banlieue with cantons of Asnières, Boulogne-Billancourt, Clichy, Colombes, Courbevoie, Levallois-Perret, Neuilly-sur-Seine, Puteaux and Saint-Ouen
* Seine-6 was covering the northeastern part of banlieue with cantons of Aubervilliers, Montreuil, Noisy-le-Sec, Pantin, Saint-Denis and Vincennes, the major part of which would be transferred to the Seine-Saint-Denis département when the Seine département was split in 1968.


Main political forces participating into these elections were:

- Popular Republican Movement (MRP)

- French Communist Party (PCF)

- French Section of the Workers’ International (SFIO) in alliance with the center-left Democratic and Socialist Union of the Resistance (UDSR). In Seine-1, the small, left-wing christian, Young Republic (JR) was included in the SFIO-UDSR alliance.

- Republican, Radical and Radical-Socialist Party (PRRRS), the old Radical Party tainted by its association with the ill-fated Third Republic and drifting to the right

- So-called ‘moderates’, an unofficial label batching the lists connected to the old Republican Federation and Democratic Alliance as well as the newly founded Patriotic Republican Union which would subsequently formally organized as the Republican Party of Liberty (PRL). These political forces were calling themselves ‘moderates’ in the Paris municipal council, in spite of generally advocating very right-wing stances. The ‘moderate’ lists were running under different names according to the constituency and their political make-up may varied from one constituency to another one: ‘Liberty List’ in Seine-1 led by Édouard Frédéric-Dupont (a central figure of the Parisian right whose career spanned six decades and who served in parliament, with some interruptions, between 1936 and 1993); ‘National Democratic Republican Union’ led by Joseph Denais in Seine-2 and Lucien Besset in Seine-3; ‘Republican Entente’ led by Pierre Guérard in Seine-4; ‘Democratic Action Against Right- and Left-Wing Fascisms’ led by Edmond Barrachin in Seine-5; ‘Republican Concentration’ led by Pierre Ruhlmann in Seine-6).

Minor lists:

- the mandatory right-wing dissident lists, especially in Paris (‘Social Action Republican List Against Fascism and Communism’ in Seine-1; ‘Republican Concentration’, ‘National Reconstruction’ and the clearly far-right ‘Anticommunist French Unity’ in Seine-2; ‘Independent Radicals and Democratic Alliance’ in Seine-4).

- the Social Republican Party of French Reconciliation (PRSRF), successor to La Rocque’s interwar French Social Party which had failed to agree with other right-wing forces in Seine-2, Seine-3, Seine-5 and Seine-6

- the Internationalist Communist Party (PCI), the most important Trotskyist group of the period (until it rapidly began to split on a quasi-yearly basis) which was running only in Seine-1

- royalists, running a list in only two constituencies, Seine-1 and Seine-2.

- an UDSR dissident list, running in Seine-3

- a ‘Socialist List Independent From All Parties’, running in Seine-4.

- the ‘Federist Movement’ (Mouvement fédériste), a pacifist and federalist movement led by Joseph Archer, an eccentric scientific inventor who, after having elaborated innovative gun barrels during WWI, decided in 1928 it was time to bring peace in the world with the establishment of a European currency (‘Europa’) backed by gold, steal, copper and agricultural products like wheat, wine or meat. The currency was nevertheless only used in the commune of Haute-Loire where Archer had been elected a mayor. In 1935, after Philibert Besson, one of Archer’s friends as well as a fellow follower of federist theories, had been deprived of his parliamentary seat because of troubles with justice and his own very bizarre personality, Archer managed to be elected a deputy for Haute-Loire in the by-election. Only to be heavily defeated few months later in his attempt to get reelected during the regular legislative elections. Archer had a pretty pathetic end: a 1952 article of Le Monde is reporting the then-69-year-old scientific-turn-politician had managed to escape the psychiatric hospital he had been institutionalized in by his own family; he was nonetheless caught and bring back to the psychiatric hospital, and spent the remaining of his life trying to convince courts to let him go out.

The ‘Mouvement fédériste’ ran only lists in the Parisian constituencies (Seine-1, Seine-2 and Seine-3) with Archer being the top candidate in Seine-1.

- Something called ‘Human Miseries and Rights List’, running in Seine-1. I don’t want to know.

Département results:

PCF 34.1%
MRP 28.1%
SFIO/UDSR 21.4%
Moderates 7.5%
Radical Party 2.9%
right-wing dissidents 2.2%
PRSRF 1.7%
UDSR dissidents 0.7%
royalists 0.5%
PCI 0.3%
others/joke lists 0.3%

Most-voted list by communes/Parisian arrondissements:

()

Not much surprise, the PCF was ahead in working-class/popular banlieues, even surpassing the 50% of valid votes in fifteen communes, notably Bobigny (59.2%, its best result), Drancy (58.7%), Aubervilliers (57.8%), Saint-Denis (56.5%), Gennevilliers (55.3%), Villejuif (54.9%), Ivry-sur-Seine (54.8%) and Saint-Ouen (50.5%). The PCF also placed ahead in the eastern arrondissements of Paris, receiving its best results in the twentieth (39.7%), thirteenth (39.2%) and nineteenth (38.6%). The famous ceinture rouge (red belt) at one of its largest extent, if not its largest extent.

Map showing the share of the residing labor force which was categorized as ouvrier (worker) in the 1954 census:

()

The MRP received its best results in the bourgeois communes in the banlieue like Saint-Mandé (47.2%, its best result), Vincennes (44.7%), Bourg-la-Reine (40.6%) and placed ahead in Neuilly-sur-Seine (35.6%) in spite of the competition from the moderate list which receives here 27.3% of the valid votes. The MRP also came ahead in the western part of Paris, receiving notably 37.4% in the sixth arrondissement, 34.6% in the sixteenth arrondissement (against 22.1% for the moderates) or 34.0% in the seventh arrondissement.

The SFIO-UDSR only placed ahead in a single commune, Sceaux (35.7% of the valid votes), whose mayor, Édouard Depreux, was the top candidate on the socialist list.


PCF map:

()

MRP map:

()

SFIO/USDR map:

()

Moderates map:

()

Radicals map:

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 06, 2023, 02:17:31 PM
SEINE 1946

Constitutional Referendum, 5 May 1946

Nationwide, the new constitution, which was supported by left-wing parties (PCF, SFIO) but criticized by the MRP and opposed by De Gaulle, was rejected with 52.8% of valid votes against.

In Seine, the results were very close with a difference of only 3,383 votes between rejection and support for the constitution.

Yes 49.9%
No 50.1%

()

(numbers are from a scanned La Croix newspaper)

Best commune for the ‘yes’ was Drancy (76.5%); best commune for the ‘no’ was Paris’ eight arrondissement (78.7%), followed by Paris’ sixteenth arrondissement (78.2%) and Neuilly-sur-Seine (75.6%).


Election of the second Constituent Assembly, 2 June 1946

Compared to the October 1945 election, the right was better organized, having consolidated behind the newly created Republican Party of Liberty (PRL) and facing no dissident list, a fact maybe explained by the shortness of the campaign which took place less than a month after the defeat in a referendum of the constitutional project. Meanwhile an alliance, has been built around the Radical Party, the Rally of Republican Lefts (RGR), behind what was pretty clearly a center-right platform. The RGR list in Seine-5 was led by a young and ambitious politician who had previously never run for election, defended then Catholic schools and opposed communism and state intervention in the economy. The name of that man: François Mitterrand.

Don’t know what happened to the Federist Movement, it will not run candidates in Seine until the 1951 legislative elections.

Results in Seine département (again split into six constituencies, even if this time this was pretty much the same lists facing each other) were:

PCF 33.3%
MRP 23.8%
SFIO 19.3%
PRL 14.6%
RGR 7.2%

Map of the most-voted list:

()

The main changes compared to October 1945 are:

- the collapse of the MRP vote in the most bourgeois areas, a collapse that mostly benefited to the PRL and the RGR, two options more palatable to right-wing voters: -14.4 percentage point in Saint-Mandé; -14.0 percentage point in Vincennes; -11.0 percentage point in Paris-8; -10.2 percentage point in Paris-16; -7.9 percentage point in Neuilly-sur-Seine. Neuilly-sur-Seine where François Mitterrand overperformed, being the second best commune for his list (never imagined I would write this) with 9.2%; his was L’Île-Saint-Denis with 14.0%, I don’t know why.

- the erosion of the SFIO vote, more pronounced in eastern Paris (-5.5 pp in Paris-10; -4.1pp in Paris-19; -3.5pp in Paris-2; -3.2pp in Paris-3; -3.1pp in Paris 20), in the working-class communes dominated by the PCF (-5.4pp in Clichy; -3.8pp in Champigny-sur-Marne; -3.7pp in Pantin; -3.6pp in Bobigny) as well as in Paris-17 (-4.4pp).

PCF map, pretty much similar to the October 1945 one:

()

MRP map:

()

SFIO map:

()

PRL map:

()

RGR map (yeah, hardly the map of a left-wing list):

()


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 07, 2023, 03:24:18 PM
Economists Thomas Piketty and Julia Cagé are releasing these days a book titled Une histoire du conflit politique: Élections et inégalités sociales en France 1789-2022 (A History of Political Conflict: Elections and Social Inequalities in France 1789-2022) which is intending to summarize French electoral history since 1789 and explaining electoral patterns thanks to a lot of economic and social indicators. The book and its conclusions are already harshly attacked by political scientists for notably being over-simplistic, offering hardly new theories to explain electoral behaviors and for neglecting most of recent political science research.

What is interesting us here is however that the Piketty-Cagé couple has used an army of ‘collaborators’ (research assistants) to collect the historical election results at département level and scan the procès-verbaux (election returns) of all presidential and legislative elections since 1848 at commune level as well as a disturbing selection of referendums (the 1793 and 1795 farcical referendums, which is just huh?, 1946, 1992 and 2005 but not the very relevant politically speaking 1870 plebiscite, October 1962 referendum or 1969 referendum). Social and economic indicators provided by the INSEE (but not going as far in time than 1960 for most) are also included in the database that has been compiled under the direction of the two economists.

A website (https://unehistoireduconflitpolitique.fr) has been created to map the electoral results and socio-economic indicators (https://unehistoireduconflitpolitique.fr/cartographie.html) with also a section where the full results by commune, socio-economic indicators and scans of election returns can be freely downloaded (https://unehistoireduconflitpolitique.fr/telecharger.html) (in dta and csv files for the first ones, in jpg for the scans).

This is a very cool work, which is finally addressing the ineptitude of the Interior Ministry to get detailed election results older than 1992 online. Sadly, it has been used to draw some disputable conclusions by two star intellectuals acting outside of their own sphere.

Also, I have already noticed a few problems:

* The charts, maps and tables are based on present-day communes, ignoring the communes which have been abolished. For example, you have the combined results for present-day Cherbourg-Octeville and not the distinct results for the two communes of Cherbourg and Octeville (which merged in 2000). So you have to use directly the procès-verbaux scans to have the full results with the former communes, a bit of a problem especially when you go back furthest in time.

* The electoral graphs in the ‘how your commune has voted since two centuries’ section are totally useless because the way they have constituted their political aggregates (left/center-left/center/center-right/right) is absurdly wrong. Judging by the graph for the whole Metropolitan France presented for comparison, the ‘right’ in the presidential election has been Tixier-Vignancour in 1965, Pompidou in 1969, Le Pen in 1974, Chirac, Debré and Garaud in 1981 and Le Pen and minor candidates like Villiers (but only in 1995 it seems), Dupont-Aignan Mégret and Zemmour for the subsequent elections. Also Bayrou is ‘center’ in 2002 and 2012 but not in 2007 when he was ‘center-right’. Doesn’t sounds like a serious job here. I don’t even want to know what they did with the legislative results.

However, there are cool graphs about average income, home ownership, average age, share of foreign nationals and share of employees and workers.

* For the legislative results tab I have download and see (1945), they are using the labels of the Interior Ministry with the consequence that if there are several ‘divers-droite’ lists, it will be their combined result and not their individual results which will be provided.

* Results for overseas and French Algeria aren't provided.

* The scans are bundled into excessively voluminous zipped files (10 Go or even more!) and you have to download the entirety of the scans for the entire France without the possibility to download only the département or even the region that is interesting you.

That said, this is a formidable database for results of French past elections. Thankfully, I have invest into a new computer and have now fiber-optic Internet so I'm able to exploit this now available data. I have already began working on maps of the 1965 presidential election.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 08, 2023, 11:21:57 AM
First maps of the 1965 presidential election even if that one was planned from some time ago, using again the results provided by the Bulletin municipal officiel de la Ville de Paris.

SEINE

First round

()

Charles de Gaulle 41.8%
François Mitterrand 35.7%
Jean Lecanuet 14.5%
Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour 4.8%
Pierre Marcilhacy 1.9%
Marcel Barbu 1.4%

null/blank 0.9%

()

De Gaulle placed ahead in every arrondissement of Paris, his best one being Paris-1 (46.8%) and his worst one Paris-13 (40.5% against 39.1% for Mitterrand). He got his best results in the département the rather well-off communes of the southeast quarter (49.1% in Rungis, 48.8% in Saint-Mandé, 48.0% in Nogent-sur-Marne, 46.9% in Vincennes and in Le Perreux-sur-Marne; his five best communes) while being hurt by the performances of Lecanuet and Tixier-Vignancour in the super-bourgeois sectors of western Paris-Neuilly (46.6% in Paris-8 against 26.1% for Lecanuet and 8.4% for Tixier-Vignancour; 45.4% in Paris-16 against 27.5% for Lecanuet and 8.5% for Tixier-Vignancour; 46.4% in Neuilly-sur-Seine against 27.9% for Lecanuet and 7.3% for Tixier-Vignancour).

His worst results are in the workers/low-income banlieue communes of the ceinture rouge like Saint-Denis (33.6%), Aubervilliers (33.5%), Drancy (33.9%), Saint-Ouen (33.9%), Bobigny (32.6%), Vitry-sur-Seine (35.5%), Ivry-sur-Seine (29.9%), Villejuif (33.7%), Malakoff (33.4%) and Gennevilliers (28.2%, its worst commune).

()

Mitterrand is pretty much the opposite, receiving over 50% of the vote in 17 communes, notably 60% in Gennevilliers, 57.9% in Ivry-sur-Seine, 54.6% in Drancy, 54.1% in Aubervilliers and Bobigny, 53.4% in Saint-Denis, 52.7% in Saint-Ouen and 50.7% in Vitry-sur-Seine. Meanwhile he received under 20% of the vote in four communes/arrondissements: Paris-7 (17.2%), Paris-8 (15.6%), Paris-16 (15.3%) and Neuilly-sur-Seine (14.9%, his worst commune this time).

()

Vote for Lecanuet is more bourgeois than the De Gaulle vote and is heavily concentrated in the beaux quartiers of Western Paris: he received over 25% of the votes in the exact same four communes/arrondissements Mitterrand had received under 20% with 27.9% in Neuilly-sur-Seine (Lecanuet’s best commune), 27.5% in Paris-16, 26.1% in Paris-8 and 25.9% in Paris-7. He received under 10% of the vote in most of the ceinture rouge communes with his worst communes being Drancy (6.5%), Gennevilliers (6.3%) and Villetaneuse (6.3%). Also while De Gaulle could surpassed Mitterrand (41.9% against 40.1%) in Champigny-sur-Marne, a PCF-ruled rather working-class suburb with pockets of extreme poverty (the infamous Plateau-de-Champigny slum, then the largest one in France, overwhelmingly populated by Portuguese migrants), Lecanuet received there only 11.2% of the vote, 3 percent point below his département average.

()

The vote for Tixier-Vignancour is even more concentrated in the posh areas of western Paris, peaking at 8.5% in Paris-16, 8.4% in Paris-8, 7.7% in Paris-7, 7.3% in Paris-6 and Neuilly-sur-Seine. The far-right candidate also received good results in rather wealthy communes of the Petite Couronne like Thiais (7.3%), Bourg-la-Reine (6.8%), Saint-Mandé (6.7%), Créteil (6.1%), Sceaux (6.0%), Antony (5.8%) or Nogent-sur-Marne (5.6%). In contrast, he underperformed in the low-income/working-class inner suburbs with 3.1% in Saint-Denis, 3.2% in Montreuil, 2.7% in Aubervilliers, 2.6% in Gennevilliers or 2.4% in Drancy.

Second round

()

Charles de Gaulle 52.5%
François Mitterrand 47.5%

null/blank 2.8%

Mitterrand’s best commune was Gennevilliers (67.2%) while De Gaulle’s best commune was Neuilly-sur-Seine (68.2%). Mongénéral received over 60% of the vote in 11 communes/arrondissements, notably Saint-Mandé (64.9%), Nogent-sur-Marne (60.3%) and Bourg-la-Reine (60.3%) and placed ahead in all Parisian arrondissements but Paris-13 which went to Mitterrand by the closest margin at the département level (50.1%/49.9%; a difference of 162 votes). Mitterrand received over 60% in 13 communes, notably Ivry-sur-Seine (66.2%), Aubervilliers (62.5%), Drancy (61.7%) and Saint-Denis (61.3%).

The map of the distribution of the null/blank votes is very funny. There had been a noticeable increase in the percent of null/blank votes between both rounds in the wealthiest parts of Seine, presumably largely driven by Tixier-Vignancour voters unwilling to choose between the ‘socialo-communiste’ candidate and the man the far-right had attempted to assassinate several times for having abandoned French Algeria (Tixier-Vignancour himself had endorsed Mitterrand in the runoff).

()

Hence, Neuilly-sur-Seine went for being the commune with the lowest share of spoiled ballots (0.6%) to the one with the third highest share of spoiled ballots (5.5%). Share of blank and null votes increased in similar proportions in Paris-16 (from 0.6% to 5.6%), in Paris-7 (from 0.6% to 5.6%), in Paris-8 (from 0.6% to 5.0%), in Paris-6 (from 0.7% to 4.9%) or in Sceaux (from 1.1% to 4.8%). Meanwhile La Courneuve went for being the commune with the largest share of spoiled ballots (1.5%) in the first round to the rank of twenty-fourth commune (out of 100) with the lowest share of spoiled ballots (1.9%).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Estrella on September 09, 2023, 08:37:14 AM
Amazing stuff! :D

Can you tell us something about the divides within left and right? Like, what would make a typical inhabitant of the 16th vote for RGR instead of PRL, or a worker in the 13th choose SFIO instead of PCF?


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 10, 2023, 07:06:47 AM
BOUCHES-DU-RHÔNE

1965 presidential again, using this time the data compiled for Une histoire du conflit politique. Élections et inégalités sociales en France, 1789-2022.

First round

François Mitterrand 39.3%
Charles de Gaulle 35.7%
Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour 12.4%
Jean Lecanuet 9.6%
Pierre Marcilhacy 1.6%
Marcel Barbu 1.3%

null/blank 1.0%

()

()

De Gaulle came first in the two most populated communes: Marseille (results by arrondissement aren’t provided) where he received 38.1% of the votes against 37.5% for Mitterrand, 12.4% for Tixier-Vignancour and 9.3% for Lecanuet; and Aix-en-Provence, where he received 34.2% of the votes (below his département average) against 28.4% for Mitterrand, 19.0% for Tixier-Vignancour and 14.4% for Lecanuet. De Gaulle received his strongest results in the sparsely populated northeastern part of the département around Montagne Sainte-Victoire as well as in the small communes in the periphery of Aix-en-Provence and Marseille like Cabriès (49.1%), Allauch (45.7%) or Plan-de-Cuques (43.6%). De Gaulle also received a strong result in places like the seaside resort of Carry-le-Rouet (43.6%), where famous contemporary actor Fernandel owned then a villa, and the historical village of Les Baux-de-Provence (39.5%). De Gaulle finally placed also ahead in Salon-de-Provence (34.5% against 29.4% for Mitterrand) and in the northwestern part of the département, in the communes bordering the Rhône river.

()

Mitterrand placed ahead in the whole western part of the département and received there some of his best results in the industrialized area around the heavily polluted Étang de Berre (fishing was prohibited in 1957): 71.6% in Port-de-Bouc (Mitterrand’s best commune), a communist stronghold where Robert Hue was still able to poll first in 2002 and the site of shipyards which closed in 1966, few months after the election; 61.7% in Berre-l’Étang, home to important petrochemical industries; 58.5% in the industrial harbor of Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône; 52.7% in Fos-sur-Mer and 61.8% in Saint-Mitre-les-Remparts, two places which experienced pollution problems as early as the 1830s (thanks to soda ash factories) and saw in the late 1960s the construction of an industrial harbor and a steel factory which fostered a rapid demographic growth; 54.5% in Saint-Chamas, the site of a hydroelectric plant which was started operations the following year. Mitterrand also scored strong results in Arles (49.4%), Martigues (48.0%), in the rail hub of Miramas (52.6%) and results above his département average in Istres (42.5%), Vitrolles (44.2%) and Marignane (39.6%).

In the eastern part of the Bouches-du-Rhône, Mitterrand overperformed in La Ciotat (44.8%), the site of important shipyard, as well as in the small communes around Gardanne and along the Arc River upper valley which were then home to a declining/defunct coal mining industry: 50.6% in Gardanne itself; 64.4% in Gréasque (Mitterrand’s second-best commune) where coal mines had closed in 1960; 62.7% in Trets, home to coal mining until 1935; 59.1% in Saint-Savournin; 63.1% in Cadolive; 59.3% in La Bouilladisse.

Conversely, Mitterrand didn’t do well in Salon-de-Provence (29.4%), in Aix-en-Provence (28.4%), in Carry-le-Rouet (27.7%) and in Baux-de-Provence (21.5%).

()

Tixier-Vignancour came ahead in a single commune, Maillane (31.6%), but scored impressive results in Roquefort-la-Bédoule (24.9%) where many Pieds-Noirs had been relocated after Algeria’s independence; in Marignane (22.9%) also home to an important Pied-Noir community; in La Roque-d’Anthéron (24.4%), maybe due to the presence of a camp de forestage where harki families were housed and employed to forestry operations under harsh conditions. The far-right candidate also received a score above his département average in Aix-en-Provence (19.0%), Cassis (14.8%) and Aubagne (13.7%) while under-performing in Martigues (9.8%), Istres (9.4%), Berre-l’Étang (5.4%) and receiving his worst result in the Provence coal-mining area (5.7% in Gardanne, 5.0% in Trets, 2.4% in Cadolive and 2.2% in Saint-Savournin, his two worst communes).

()

Lecanuet’s support is mostly to be found in the small communes of the rural hinterland, where agriculture (viticulture, olive groves, vegetable crops) was the main activity, as well as in the Aix-en-Provence (14.4%) - where due notably to the presence of several universities ‘cadres and intermediary professions’ constituted then 29.3% of the working population (the highest rate in Bouches-du-Rhône) and where 7.3% of the population over 25 were higher-education graduates (against 3.5% in Marseille, 3.6% in Martigues and 2.6% in Arles). Lecanuet also over-performed in the seaside resorts of Carry-le-Rouet (14.0%) and Cassis (12.8%). Meanwhile, he received his worst performances in Port-de-Bouc (3.2%), in Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône (4.2%), in the PCF-ruled mining commune of La Bouilladisse (4.0%) and in the working-class Marseille suburb of Septème-les-Vallons (4.6%).

Second round

François Mitterrand 56.5%
Charles de Gaulle 43.5%

null/blank 3.3%

()

De Gaulle was defeated in the vast majority of the communes of the département, coming ahead in only 15 out of 119 communes with the most populated commune he won being Allauch (9,271 inhabitant) with 50.6% of the votes. Mitterrand managed to come ahead in all the major cities of the département, receiving 53.3% of the votes in Aix-en-Provence, 54.1% in Marseille, 58.3% in Istres, 61.1% in Martigues, 62.7% in La Ciotat, 64.2% in Miramas, 65.8% in Arles, 71.3% in Berre-l’Étang and over 80% in four communes including Saint-Mitre-les-Remparts (80.5%; where De Gaulle actually lost votes between both rounds) and Port-de-Bouc (82.8%).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 10, 2023, 03:15:25 PM
Amazing stuff! :D

Can you tell us something about the divides within left and right? Like, what would make a typical inhabitant of the 16th vote for RGR instead of PRL, or a worker in the 13th choose SFIO instead of PCF?

Not entirely sure. I’m honestly not that knowledgeable about French voting patterns, especially from that period. The general view would be however that the PRL voter would be more of a practicing Catholic and a businessman or shopkeeper while the RGR voter would be more secular (or Protestant) and a professional. Meanwhile, the SFIO voter would be more of a public servant or an employee while the PCF voter would be more of a worker.

This may be over a bit too much an oversimplification but when comparing the results of June 1946 elections for the SFIO and the ones of the PCF lists, the socialists are outran by communists in all communes but two (Sceaux and Paris-8) and the communes where they polled under the département average advantage for the PCF list (a 13.9 percent point in favor of the PCF list) are all located in the less working-class parts of the département (1.1 percent point in favor of the PCF in Paris-16; 3.1 percent point in Saint-Mandé; 5.1 percent point in Nogent-sur-Marne; 11.5 percent point in Asnières; 12.7 percent point in Boulogne-Billancourt) while it is largely outpaced in communes like Vitry-sur-Seine (27.7 percent point), Nanterre (28.1 percent point), Saint-Denis (38.0 percent point) or Aubervilliers (a 40.4 percent point-led for the PCF list over the SFIO list). The only arrondissements where the PCF led the SFIO by a figure above its département average are Paris 11 (17.3 pp), Paris-19 (18.1 pp), Paris-20 (18.5 pp) and Paris-13 (20.0 pp).

In the PRL vs. RGR ‘contest’, the RGR polled above the PRL in only ten communes, all located in banlieue and falling generally under the ‘neither posh neither working-class category’ (bar Drancy). But the PRL is leading the RGR by a figure above its département average in only 18 communes, confirming its support is heavily concentrated in a few places while the RGR one is more evenly distributed. Such places are too be found in the more affluent parts of the département: Bourg-la-Reine (a 9.9 pp led), Nogent-sur-Marne (11.9 pp), Saint-Mandé (19.4 pp), Neuilly-sur-Seine (a 26.6 pp led) and in the western arrondissements of Paris with the largest led being in Paris-8 (41.8% for the PRL against 10.1% for the RGR).

The mentioned cleavages may be also reflected by the social/professional background of the top candidates of each list during the 1946 elections of a Constituent Assembly.

PCF top candidates:

* Seine-1: André Marty, a former boilermaker in the French Navy who became a leading figure in the 1919 Black Sea Mutiny before serving as a Komintern-appointed general inspector in the International Brigades during the Spanish Civil War.

* Seine-2: Marcel Cachin, a Brittany-born professor of philosophy and director of L’Humanité communist newspaper who was additionally a Breton cultural activist and served as an organizer in the important Breton diaspora in Paris (many Bretons moved to Parisian region to be employed in low-skilled jobs like navvies or maids), even organizing in Pont-l’Abbé (Finistère) in 1938 a Communist-sponsored folkloric festival during which people in Bigouden folk costumes sang The International in Breton (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_DzCWkqxqM). Relatedly, a PCF politician of Breton origin, Jules Trémel, had organized a ‘laïc’ pardon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon_(ceremony)) since 1933 in Saint-Denis as a way to challenge Catholic influence among Breton diaspora, seemingly with good results as he was constantly elected a municipal councilor in Saint-Denis from 1925 until his death in 1964.

* Seine-3: Florimond Bonte, a schoolteacher-turn-surveyor hailing from Tourcoing (Nord) who became one of the main managers of the French communist press; anecdoctally, also a composer of musette waltz.

* Seine-4: Maurice Thorez, the general-secretary of the PCF from 1930 until his death in 1964; started as a miner, later a laborer and a painter in construction sector.

* Seine-5: Étienne Fajon, a former schoolteacher.

* Seine-6: Jacques Duclos, a former pastry cook.

SFIO top candidates:

* Seine-1: Paul Rivet, an ethnologist specialized in South American indigenous populations (there is an avenue in Quito named after him), a university professor and the founder and director of the Musée de l’Homme; had served as the president of the Watchfulness Committee of Intellectual Antifascists (1934-39), an organization that largely foreran the Popular Front, and became part of the Réseau du Musée de l’Homme, a resistance network organized around Parisian intellectuals which was active as early as October 1940.

* Seine-2: Daniel Mayer, the son of a Jewish small trader and a schoolteacher of Alsatian Jewish origin who had himself worked as a salesman and second-hand dealer before joining Le Populaire socialist newspaper as a journalist; like Rivet, very active in the Human Rights’ League.

* Seine-3: André Le Troquer, a lawyer at the Paris’ bar.

* Seine-4: Édouard Depreux, a lawyer at the Paris’ bar, specialized in the defense of anti-colonial activists like Messali Hadj.

* Seine-5: Albert Gazier, an employee at a bookshop and later at the social security fund, who then served as the general-secretary of the Parisian Region’s employees’ chamber and as a member of the CGT union’s national bureau.

* Seine-6: Gérard Jaquet, a full-time SFIO party official who came from a middle-class background (deputy general-secretary of the SFIO at 30) and had been active in the socialist student movement in the late 1930s.

PRL top candidates:

* Seine-1: Louis Rollin, an attorney at the Paris court of appeal who had served several times as a minister during the Third Republic and as a deputy specialized in economic matters and commercial property rights.

* Seine-2: Joseph Denais, a lawyer at the Paris’ bar who contributed to many right-wing newspapers during the Third Republic (including the antisemitic La Libre Parole whom he was a co-director) and as a parliamentary served as a member and later a president of the supervisory committee of the Deposits and Consignment Funds (a state-owned investment bank).

* Seine-3: Charles Schauffler, the former director of various businesses then the owner and manager of a wholesale trading company.

* Seine-4: Michel Peytel, a military officer graduated from the Saint-Cyr military school.

* Seine-5: Edmond Barrachin, the scion of an industrial family from Ardennes; once married to the daughter of Maurice de Forest, the Paris-born adoptive son of a German banker – De Forest’s life is quite something, having been a motor racing driver, a socialite and an art collector, a Liberal MP for West Ham and a Liechtenstein diplomat.

* Seine-6: Jean Bertaud, a director and inspector at the SNCF public railway company.

RGR top candidates:

* Seine-1: Vincent de Moro-Giafferri, a high-profile lawyer of Corsican origin who achieved celebrity as a the lawyer of the infamous serial killer Henri-Désiré Landru (one of the first heavily publicized trial in France) and of Herschel Grynszpan (the assassin of a diplomat at the German embassy in Paris, the act which was used by the Nazi regime as a pretext for the Kristallnacht); also unsuccessfully attempted to become the counsel of Dimitrov in the trial of the Reichstag fire and participated as a judge in company with other high-profile European lawyers in the counter-trial of the Reichstag fire organized in London by German exiles to sentence the Nazis and Göring for the crime.

* Seine-2: Paul Bastid, the scion of a dynasty of parliamentarians from Cantal and a professor of philosophy and public law at the Paris Faculty of Law as well as a former president of the general council of Cantal.

* Seine-3: Pierre Bourdan, a UDSR member who was a journalist and a director of the Havas Agency in London, an anchor of the Free French famous Les Français parlent aux Français radio broadcast on the BBC and a war reporter during the Liberation of France.

* Seine-4: Madeleine Finidori-Dubler, a female employee for the Post Office who wrote books and articles of the Corsican press; active in the Corsican community in Parisian region and came from the left wing of the SFIO.

* Seine-5: François Mitterrand, the son of a bourgeois family of Charente and a lawyer by training; worked in the administration of the General Commission for War Prisoners in the Vichy regime and as a general-secretary for prisoners in the French Committee of Liberation National constituted in the wake of the liberation of Paris.

* Seine-6: Alfred Secqueville, the president of the Radical Party’s Seine federation residing in Courbevoie; can’t find anything about his background, he may be the same that the Alfred Secqueville who founded a short-lived automobile company (Secqueville-Hoyau) in 1919 whose headquarters was in Gennevilliers, not far away from Courbevoie.

Of course, there are other factors in play besides socioeconomic and religious factors, like maybe the regional origin of the numerous provincial migrants (I have mentioned Bretons and Corsicans, but uring the interwar period the Auvergne-born Pierre Laval managed to entrench his rule over Aubervilliers – the commune he was the mayor between 1923 and 1942 – thanks to his clientele networks among the Auvergnat bougnats (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bougnat), enabling him to be elected and reelected mayor of the commune by wide margins in 1923, 1925, 1929 and 1935 in spite of his shift from socialism towards moderate conservatism). I’m not aware of works on that question however.

Also, important in the post-war context, unlike the RGR, the PRL was advocating a policy of ‘reconciliation’ i.e. indulgence with collaborators by fear that the épuration would divided too much the society and paved the way for Communists taking over power but also because many of its members had an ambiguous role during the war (similar to Mitterrand actually), having supported Pétain (at least in the first stages of his government) and having been members of then totally discredited far-right or nationalist movements before having joined a bit late the Resistance (for the ones who hadn’t be collaborators until the Liberation) and because a majority of French big business had not much problems working with the German occupant.

Kind of similar divide in the left between the SFIO which was the only French party to seriously attempt purging its collaborators members (in first place, the general-secretary between 1920 and 1940, Paul Faure) and whose all six aforementioned candidates had joined early the Resistance and, well, the Communist Party, whose role in the first stage of the war had been particularly controversial to say the least (Thorez had been sentenced for desertion for fleeing to Moscow at the beginning of the war and was only enabled to return in France in November 1944, once De Gaulle had overturned his conviction).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on September 12, 2023, 03:49:32 PM
RHÔNE

First round

Charles de Gaulle 37.9%
François Mitterrand 31.0%
Jean Lecanuet 21.1%
Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour 6.6%
Pierre Marcilhacy 1.9%
Marcel Barbu 1.5%

Blank/null 0.8%

()

Not very familiar with the electoral patterns of Rhône. De Gaulle placed ahead in all arrondissements of Lyon but the eighth one (where he received 35.9% against 40.0% for Mitterrand) and in relatively important urban centers like Villefranche-sur-Saône (37.3% against 35.6% for Mitterrand), Neuville-sur-Saône (43.3% against 30.1% for Mitterrand), Belleville (39.0% against 30.4% for Mitterrand), Thizy (36.1% against 28.7% for Mitterrand) or Tarare, a small industrial (textile) center of 12,000 inhabitants (where he received 41.5% of the vote against 24.5% for Lecanuet and 23.7% for Mitterrand). He also came ahead communes of the banlieue of Lyon like the affluent Écully (36.6% against 28.1% for Lecanuet and 24.7% for Mitterrand) and Saint-Didier-au-Mont-d’Or (38.9% against 27.1% for Mitterrand and 25.3% for Lecanuet), Caluire-et-Cuire (40.3% against 25.3% for Mitterrand) or Bron (38.1% against 35.2% for Mitterrand) as well in most of the rural part of the département, bar the Monts-du-Lyonnais (the hilly southwest part of the département) and part of Beaujolais.

The Monts-du-Lyonnais seems like a very right-wing region as, not only Lecanuet placed ahead in a good number of communes there but Tixier-Vignancour also broke there the 10% bar in a dozen of communes. Mitterrand placed ahead in a dozen of communes of Beaujolais, apparently due to the presence of vigneronnage, some sort of sharecropping system used there for viticulture. Nevertheless, Beaujolais has never be a territory particularly favorable to socialism and communism.

The best results of Mitterrand are to be found in the working-class banlieues of Lyon (54.5% in Vénissieux; 48.5% in Vaulx-en-Velin; 48.1% in Saint-Fons; 45.5% in Pierre-Bénite; 43.9% in Oullins; 39.3% in Villeurbanne) and the small industrial center of Givors (56.8% in this PCF stronghold and Mitterrand’s best commune). Mitterrand also placed first, but with a more modest result in the small industrial area (production of cheap cloth for popular consumers made by small/tiny family businesses) around Thizy (33.1% in Bourg-de-Thizy), an area then hit hard by the crisis in the textile sector.

()

(yeah, De Gaulle's map is a bit indecipherable)

()


()


()


Second round

Charles de Gaulle 53.4%
François Mitterrand 46.6%

Blank/null 4.0%

()

De Gaulle placed ahead in the vast majority of the communes, winning all Lyon arrondissements but Lyon-8 (54.1% for Mitterrand) and Lyon-9 (53.2% for Mitterrand) and places like Neuville-sur-Saône (56.6%), Belleville (53.9%) and Tarare (57.9%). He received his best results in the most rural parts of the département, especially the Monts-du-Lyonnais.

On the other hand, Mitterrand managed to come ahead in Villefranche-sur-Saône with 50.04% of the votes (with a difference of nine votes!) and in Bron (50.6%) while receiving 68.0% in Vénissieux (his best commune), 62.4% in Vaulx-en-Velin, 57.6% in Pierre-Bénite, 56.3% in Oullins, 53.2% in Villeurbanne and 67.0% in Givors. Also won three communes in the Thizy area.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 01, 2023, 12:53:58 PM
()

I watched the new French Netflix show 'Tapie' about, well, Bernard Tapie. The show is decent but is rather fictionalized and sometimes structured like an epic, and his political career is very rushed and not well written. It did, naturally, prompt me to revisit the Tapie list's performance in the 1994 EP elections.

Tapie's MRG list, Énergie radicale, won 12% and 13 seats, not very far behind the PS list led by Michel Rocard, which won only 14.5%, and ended his prime political career and presidential ambitions. It is well known that Mitterrand did everything he could to sabotage and undermine Rocard, although Mitterrand noted that Rocard didn't need any help doing so, and he is widely perceived as having implicitly supported Tapie's list. Bernard Tapie, of course, owed his political career and brief ministerial posting to Mitterrand, who was quite fond of him and his style.

Unsurprisingly, Tapie had a strong 'favourite son' vote in Marseille and the Bouches-du-Rhône, where he was deputy (reelected in a not particularly safe leftist seat in the 1993 debacle) and, of course, owned the OM football team, which made him a local hero and icon, even though Tapie was not from Marseille. He won 25.7% in the Bouches-du-Rhône and 28.7% in Marseille, the only department he won in metropolitan France (his best result, however, was 36.3% in French Guiana, thanks to one Christiane Taubira, elected deputy the year before). He won 27.6% in his constituency (Bouches-du-Rhône 10th), but his best results came from the fourth (34.5%) and seventh (34.8%) constituencies in the north of Marseille.

These results point to a general pattern in his support: Tapie did best in lower-income urban and suburban areas, and in some depressed industrial areas. This can be seen in the Parisian region (Tapie won in Sarcelles, Garges-lès-Gonesse among others), the Roubaix area of the Lille metro, the Dunkerque area, the Pays Haut (Meurthe-et-Moselle), the industrial valleys of Moselle, parts of Oise, Aisne and Ardennes. Tapie was good at marketing himself as an anti-elitist, anti-system rags-to-riches man of the people, the working-class kid who made it big. In some places, he likely did bite into the FN vote somewhat but his map was not really that of the FN at the time. More than anything else, he stole votes from the PS (and, in much more limited numbers, the PCF).

You can kind of see the MRG vote - most clearly in Corsica, where the local Radical barons' clientelist networks got Tapie 19% in Haute-Corse 2nd and 17.5% in Émile Zuccarelli's Haute-Corse 1st. It can also be seen in the Lot, Tarn-et-Garonne, Aveyron, Hautes-Pyrénées and perhaps Michel Crépeau's La Rochelle (but the strong result in the Charentes is more than just that).

Tapie's list led one of the most explicitly pro-European campaigns that year (in an election that saw the emergence of Eurosceptic movements on the right - Philippe de Villiers' list - and left - the Che's MDC list), but paradoxically he was weak in the most pro-European regions: Paris (8.4%), Brittany, Alsace (just 6.9% in Bas-Rhin), the southern Massif Central. Not too surprisingly, he also did poorly in wealthy areas.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 01, 2023, 05:55:55 PM
The data compiled for Une histoire du conflit politique. Élections et inégalités sociales en France does seem to offer an unexplored treasure trove of old electoral data. It allows me to look at detailed results for 1974, the closest presidential election runoff (and a 'pure', old left-right battle). Here are the results for Brittany (five departments, obviously):

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Giscard won 56.8% and four of the five departments: Mitterrand only won the Côtes-d'Armor (with 51.5%), while Giscard won 61.1% in Ille-et-Vilaine, 57.2% in Morbihan, 57.5% in Finistère and 57.6% in Loire-Atlantique. Needless to say, Brittany's politics have shifted a lot since then.

The traditional political regions of Brittany are very obviously visible: the ultra-clerical 'theocratic' Léon, the reactionary clerical eastern Vannetais and the eastern Ille-et-Vilaine (politically and socially similar to Mayenne) on the right, and the 'red country' of the Trégor and Haute-Cornouaille (a Communist stronghold) and the industrial regions of Saint-Nazaire and the Loire estuary outside Nantes. All major cities except for Saint-Brieuc and Saint-Nazaire voted for Giscard, most of them narrowly: Brest (53.3%), Quimper (51.1%), Lorient (51.4%), Rennes (51.1%) and Nantes (52.6%), only traditionally conservative Vannes voted by Giscard by a large margin (63.4%), all of them except for Vannes would vote for Mitterrand in 1981.

There's a lot more to say but I don't have the energy to write more.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2023, 06:22:52 PM
Now a map of the 1965 second round results in Brittany:

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Charles de Gaulle won by a landslide in Brittany, with 62.6%, over 7% better than his nationwide result. He won all five departments, with his best departments being Ille-et-Vilaine (67.6%) and Morbihan (66.5%), and his weakest being the Côtes-du-Nord (-d'Armor) with 54.8%. He won 60.7% in Loire-Atlantique and 63.2% in Finistère.

The map is quite similar to the 1974 map, except bluer. The traditional conservative strongholds are even more strikingly blue, with many results over 90% in the Léon, Vannetais and eastern Ille-et-Vilaine. Mitterrand only won the red 'blob' in central Brittany and the industrial Loire estuary outside Nantes and around Saint-Nazaire, with only a tiny handful of victories elsewhere. De Gaulle won all major cities and towns, except for Saint-Nazaire (and Guingamp), and nearly all by comfortable margins - 54% in Saint-Brieuc, just over 55% in Rennes, Lorient, Quimper and Nantes, over 60% in Brest and 68% in Vannes.

To the best of my abilities, I tried to take into account former communes that were abolished after 1965 (this required actually looking at the procès-verbaux scans) - there were several, the most important of which being the three communes of Saint-Malo which would merge in 1967 (Saint-Malo, Saint-Servan and Paramé). However, it's very hard to find maps of old communal boundaries online, so some of them are very rough guesses.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2023, 02:07:09 PM
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1981, Mitterrand elected. In Brittany, Giscard won narrowly - with 50.8% against 49.2% for Mitterrand, a substantial swing to the left from seven years prior, when Giscard won 56.8%. Interestingly, Giscard still won four of the five departments, with the exception again of the Côtes-du-Nord. Giscard won 54.2% in Ille-et-Vilaine, 54% in the Morbihan, 50.9% in the Finistère and 50.1% in Loire-Atlantique.

In a significant shift from 1974 and laying the grondwork for the region's future political evolution, nearly every major city voted for Mitterrand - Nantes (51.6%), Rennes (56%), Saint-Brieuc (57%), Lorient (53.8%), Quimper (57%), Brest (51.5%) and obviously Saint-Nazaire (63.7%) as well as smaller towns like Guingamp, Lannion, Morlaix, Châteaubriant and Redon. Only Vannes and Saint-Malo voted Giscard, along with smaller towns such as Vitré, Fougères, Dinan and Ploërmel. The growing urban/suburban influence of the big cities can also be seen for the first time - around Rennes, Nantes and even Brest.

The conservative bastions of Léon, Vannetais, eastern Ille-et-Vilaine and Loire-Atlantique south of the Loire were still solid enough to put Giscard over the top, but Mitterrand now pulled well over 20%, even 30%, in some communes in those right-wing strongholds (you can see the shades of blue becoming lighter compared to 1974).

An interesting result: Mitterrand won 69% in Plogoff (Finistère), a 20-point swing from 1974, in the wake of the large local protests against plans to build a nuclear power plant (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projet_de_centrale_nucl%C3%A9aire_de_Plogoff) in the commune (Mitterrand, once elected, cancelled the project as he had promised).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2023, 01:28:46 PM
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A rather interesting map: Ile-de-France in 1974. A very evenly divided region as always. Giscard won in Paris (56.7%), Yvelines (52.9%), Seine-et-Marne (50.7%) and Hauts-de-Seine (50.1%) while Mitterrand won in Seine-Saint-Denis (61.7%), Val-d'Oise (54.8%), Val-de-Marne (53.4%) and Essonne (54.7%).

Some familiar patterns and results in many places, but also some more surprising results and some very clear shifts from the current map.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: JimJamUK on October 09, 2023, 07:08:03 PM
Some familiar patterns and results in many places

Would you be able to explain more about them? My knowledge of Paris geography is not amazing (though I can make a few educated guesses).


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on October 10, 2023, 03:52:20 PM
Some familiar patterns and results in many places

Would you be able to explain more about them? My knowledge of Paris geography is not amazing (though I can make a few educated guesses).

It's a very big topic and a lot could be said, but I'll try to keep it short. Île-de-France region has the biggest socioeconomic inequalities in the country - the wealthiest and poorest (major) communes in metropolitan France are located in the region (Neuilly-sur-Seine and Grigny, respectively). To oversimplify things grossly, wealth spreads westwards from the centre of Paris, into the Hauts-de-Seine and Yvelines departments, as well as the northwestern corner of the Essonne around the Paris-Saclay research corridor, with other more isolated wealthy suburban areas like Saint-Maur-des-Fossés (Val-de-Marne) and around Fontainebleau (Seine-et-Marne). On the other hand, low-income areas are concentrated in the east of the Petite Couronne (the inner ring around Paris, made of the departments of Hauts-de-Seine, Seine-Saint-Denis and Val-de-Marne), particularly in the Seine-Saint-Denis (the 'infamous' 93), the poorest department in metropolitan France, and parts of the Val-d'Oise and Val-de-Marne, as well as in more 'isolated' low-income towns with 'difficult' pauperized tower-block housing projects (largely depressed old industrial towns, primarily around rivers and old railway lines). These include towns such as La Courneuve, Grigny, Villiers-le-Bel, Pierrefitte-sur-Seine, La Courneuve, Clichy-sous-Bois, Stains, Aubervilliers, Bobigny, Sarcelles, Garges-lès-Gonesse and so forth. The map below is a bit outdated (2015) but is a decent representation of income inequalities in the region, with red showing wealthy areas and blue poor areas.

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The green category on the map is a bit of an overly broad 'leftovers' category without too much rhyme or reason to it besides 'nondescript suburbia' of sorts, although the darker green shades are lower-income outer suburbia (mostly).

In political terms, the bulk of what is today low-income suburbia formed the ceinture rouge, or Red Belt, the 'belt' of industrial working-class towns around Paris which became strongholds of the Communist Party (PCF) as early as the 1920s or, in some cases, following the war (1945). Obviously, the PCF's strongholds in the Red Belt have been chipped away over the past decades, by both the right and the Socialists, but in many cases those areas remain left-wing strongholds -- even though demographics have changed with deindustrialization and immigration (the Muslim immigrant vote heavily favours the left for rather obvious reasons). You'll find that the places in blue on the map above are basically all very left-wing, and have voted heavily for the left in nearly every national election (and very heavily for Mélenchon in 2022). There have been some cases where demographic changes combined with urban planning policies have completely changed the politics of certain places - this is the case for Boulogne-Billancourt, Puteaux and Suresnes (Hauts-de-Seine) which were industrial working-class towns until the 1960s-1970s (on my map, Puteaux and Suresnes narrowly voted Mitterrand in 1974 and Boulogne-Billancourt gave him 43%). On the other hand, demographic changes from gentrification in Paris proper and its inner suburbs, like Montreuil (93), have been more politically favourable to the left.

On the other hand, wealthy areas have always been the stronghold of the right - the Hauts-de-Seine and Yvelines are the old hotbeds of the old (now decrepit) French 'moderate' right, producing a disproportionate number of prominent right-wing politicians, like Valérie Pécresse, Gérard Larcher, Nicolas Sarkozy and more infamous crooks like the Balkany and Ceccaldi-Raynauld family mafias. To a lesser extent, and much more unnoticed in popular imagination, the (formerly) agricultural periphery of the region, like in the Seine-et-Marne, have also been traditionally conservative, although the far-right has definitely supplanted the 'mainstream' right in the more remote, peripheral and downtrodden 'unattractive' outer suburbia (what some political journos in the early 2010s called the 'périurbain subi' or 'suffered'/'forced' suburbia).

The 1974 map has a much bluer Paris than today, but a much redder Essonne and Yvelines than one is accustomed to, as well as a stronger left in old small industrial centres in the Seine-et-Marne (the left vote there is now much more concentrated in low-income immigrant-heavy places like Montereau-Fault-Yonne). 1974 comes on the heels of rapid suburban growth outside the old Petite Couronne, in the early days of the new towns around the region and at the end of the post-war period of industrial growth (the dying days of the old heavy industries). Since then, socioeconomic inequalities have gotten even deeper: wealthy areas have gotten more wealthy, low-income/working-class towns have largely gotten even poorer and accumulated social problems.

I'm not sure if this makes much sense, and I'm sure I'm forgetting several things. I feel like socioeconomic patterns go a long way to explaining the general gist of voting patterns in IDF (definitely more so than in other French regions), although there's always more to it than that, so I've focused mostly on that.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Sir John Johns on October 14, 2023, 02:04:26 PM
1870 Plebiscite in Seine

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Yes 42.9% (33.3% of all registered voters)
No 57.1% (44.3% of all registered voters)

Nulls: 2.9% (2.3% of all registered voters)
Turnout: 79.8%

With Bouches-du-Rhône, Seine was the only French département to give the victory to the ‘no’.

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The ‘no’ placed first in fourteen Parisian arrondissements and is strongly correlated with the distribution of the working-class population. See this map of the social distribution of the population by arrondissements (based on the 1872 census) where ‘workers and day laborers’ are shown in blue, ‘employees’ in green and ‘non-employees’ in orange.

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The strongest arrondissements for the ‘no’ were Paris-20 (77.6%), Paris-18 (72.6%), Paris-11 (71.9%) and Paris-19 (70.2%) while its weakest were Paris-07 (35.0%) and Paris-08 (27.8%), the latter being the arrondissement with the highest share of ‘non-employees’.

Outside of Paris itself, the ‘no’ received its best performance in Puteaux, then a heavily-industrialized commune where a meeting hold a week before election day by opponents to Napoléon III attracted some 4,000 persons (there were 2,225 registered voters in Puteaux). The ‘no’ received a strong support in most of the communes neighboring Paris, with notably 54.6% in Boulogne, 60.7% in Levallois-Perret, 69.4% in Clichy, 67.4% in Saint-Ouen, 71.6% in Saint-Denis (second largest commune in term of registered voters outside of Paris with 4,500 registered voters), 64.4% in Pantin, 60.1% in Montreuil, 55.1% in Ivry-sur-Seine or 57.2% in Charenton-le-Pont. It placed also slightly ahead in the more bourgeois Vincennes (51.7%) and Neuilly-sur-Seine (50.6% with a 28-vote lead over the ‘yes’), a score due at least to some extent by legitimist voters opposed to the liberalizing measures put to plebiscite.

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Meanwhile, the ‘yes’ prevailed in Aubervilliers (53.4%) - even though then already an industrial commune - in Issy (63.8%), in Montrouge (54.6%) and in Saint-Mandé (53.0%) as well as in the less urbanized part of the département, receiving some of its strongest results in communes which will be the next century communist strongholds but were then at best big villages judging by the low number of registered voters (remember, universal male suffrage had been introduced in 1848): 72.9% in Nanterre (978 registered voters), 83.5% in Drancy (149 registered voters), 92.0% in Bobigny (209 registered voters), 87.9% in Gennevilliers (468 registered voters), 68.0% in Bondy (388 registered voters) or 79.6% in Villetaneuse (98 registered voters). Best commune for the ‘yes’ was Rungis (84 registered voters) with 97.4%.

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While the campaign in favor of null votes was mostly the fact of socialist and radical groups, the map suggested that at least in Seine spoiled ballots were rather cast by bourgeois and rural voters, maybe legitimists and orleanists.


Title: Re: French election maps
Post by: Hash on January 20, 2024, 04:41:12 PM
'PACA' in 1974

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Mitterrand won the Bouches-du-Rhône (56.4%), Var (50.1%) and Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (53.5%) while Giscard won the Alpes-Maritimes (53.6%), Hautes-Alpes (51.8%) and Vaucluse (52.5%). Seven years later, the Var was the only department to switch to Giscard, obviously presaging its future evolution to the (hard-)right.

Mitterrand won 56% in Marseille (no results by arrondissement, unfortunately) as well as Avignon (52%) but Giscard won in Nice (53%) and Toulon (51%).